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EP285 - 22021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive The US Dept of Commerce December Advanced Retail Sales Data is out, which gives us a full look at 2021 and the 2021 holiday season. So Episode 285 is a data deepdive into 2021. If you want to follow along, we've made a deck with all the data available at https://retailgeek.com/2021-commerce-recap Data Sources US Retail & E-Com Sales Data: US Dept of Commerce E-Commerce Estimates: eMarketer Retail Foot Traffic Data: Placer.ai Web Traffic Data: Similar Web Holiday Estimates: Adobe, Salesforce, Mastercard Episode 285 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday Jan 20th, 2022. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 285 being recorded on Thursday January 20th 2022 that's a heck of a lot of 2012's. I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your Cohoes Sky Wingo. Scot: [0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott chaussures Jason is kind of a shame we neither of us were able to make it in our F but, one of the things I don't miss is every year that I've gone to in our f for the last three times I've went I've had trouble getting there or been stuck there so I think then our F should use this opportunity to move that show out of January and maybe look at something like March or something if they're going to be in New York. Jason: [1:09] Or to the like Bahamas or something. Scot: [1:12] Yeah even better yeah let's make it a destination of it. Jason: [1:17] You know you have my vote I'm not sure you have a majority of votes see you if you have mine that would be awesome. Scot: [1:24] Yeah just watching and it seemed like some folks went and then they had a lot of cancellations so seemed like it was in kind of one of those weird. Hybrid states were if you went and then, person you are going to go see present canceled you sat there in a room with people watching a zoom so that's number Super satisfying but I do think it seemed like some folks you and I know got together and had some dinners and had fund so hopefully that was that was good for everyone. Jason: [1:50] Yeah I had a little bit of foam oh I think you know some people I would have liked to see you know I saw you know social media of them getting together and whatnot and. It's just super bad luck I have a feeling if this show was a month later it would be a lot less controversial that traveled to. Scot: [2:09] Yeah and what did you want to talk about this week. Jason: [2:14] Well you know if we had gone to NRF one of the things that I always like to do it in our f is kind of check in with a lot of our co-workers in the industry and kind of you know get a consensus, about how the year ended up for everyone and what they thought the big issues were going to be for 20 21. So since we didn't get to do that at shop at NRF I thought maybe we could do it on this podcast for our listeners. Scot: [2:42] Yeah that sounds good and then I know you always put together a little for your clients kind of the summary deck and I know that's hard for our podcast listeners so do you have a way to solve that. Jason: [2:55] Yeah so what I thought I would do I put together like a 36 slide deck completely full of numbers and what I thought I would do is describe all of the graphs on the podcast. Scot: [3:09] Sounds good that sounds good and it's going to be a we'll go through it and intricate detail data point by day. Jason: [3:14] Yeah because the one complaint I get about the show is that it's not hard enough to listen to. Scot: [3:18] That's that's from your mom. Jason: [3:22] So that probably isn't going to work but here so here's what I did think I do like instead of, just charging the fortune that we charge clients to go through this presentation I thought I would make a version of the whole deck available to all our listeners so in the event you do want to follow along with the visuals and see the actual data, we will put a link in the show notes you can hit pause for a second, you can open up the deck and I will tell you what slides were talking about in case you want to follow along but but Scott keep me honest here we'll try to make sure we're talking about in a way that you can kind of just, just listen along on the podcast and then look at the deck later if that's the way you prefer to do it. Scot: [4:03] Yeah this is a good time if you like receiving awesome decks for your subscription here which is essentially free this is a good time to hit the five star review we always appreciate that and yeah because we because this is a audio medium we are going to paint pictures with our words and you will see the slides form before your very eyes almost like augmented virtual reality we're going to take you to the metaverse on this thing. Jason: [4:31] Exactly it's a meta verse deep dive into a retail in 2021 and let's jump right into it so. [4:42] Super quick recap last week the US Department of Commerce publishes published their December Advanced Data so that gives us the last month of data we need to see the whole year so it's super exciting for all of us get data Geeks because we now have a complete set of data the one thing to remember is. It's an advanced look and so it doesn't have the granularity of categories that we would like and one of the categories it doesn't have is e-commerce which is highly unfortunate so, the the Deep dive for the whole year with e-commerce broken out will actually be available in mid-February and that's also when they published their quarterly. They're q4u Commerce data which is a separate report so so we have most of the interesting facts there maybe a couple things that filter in last, next month but the top line if we add up all retail sales for 2021 we sold just over six point six trillion dollars of stuff last year which is eighteen percent growth over 20. [5:53] And it's 22 percent growth over 2019 and so, if you do have the deck and you were looking at slide for I show you the last 30 years of growth and the thing that will stand out at you is that this year's growth. Is is almost double the average growth we've had in any of the last 30 years so unprecedentedly good year. Scot: [6:20] This is all retail or not talking e-commerce has. Jason: [6:22] Yeah this is this is pure retail will we will double click into e-commerce a little bit later and you know reminder there's a lot of controversy about what the definition of retail is and so you'll see millions of different numbers out there and it's because. 11 data set has automobiles in it and one has doesn't one has gas in it and one doesn't you know they're all these different things I'm using. The unadulterated numbers from the US Department of Commerce so it does include automobiles it does include gas it does not include restaurants it's what we call, in a ICS code 44,000. Scot: [7:03] Cool good old code it 44,000. Jason: [7:07] If anyone wants to catch me offline and ask for like a different spin I'm happy to talk about how the numbers change when you change your definition but I think that's too complicated for for the podcast but so before I go any further. Like is that does that surprise you at all it has is that has that been your perception that these are Monster year that 2020 and 2021 more Monster years for retail because I feel like that's not necessarily the narrative we've been getting in some of the Commerce media. Scot: [7:37] Yeah no it feels that is a surprise it makes sense and I'm looking at the slide but it makes sense that we were effectively spring-loaded right because you had the shutdown people really, you know couldn't or didn't buy things from March 20 through and so there's put up demand but what's interesting is you really don't see, unlike the Great Recession about it no nine you don't see a retraction before this the splurge and this is way way bigger than that period of time so it is it is surprising. Jason: [8:08] Yeah so so, in aggregate retail did awesome and then on slide 5 I give you this fun way of looking at the data that you and I helped help kind of evolved together but the idea is that we give you a separate line chart for 2019 2020 and 2021 and so you can kind of see. You know how the year stack up against each other and you know. [8:35] 20:19 was the unaffected by the pandemic than 20/20 happen and of course there was this huge dip in April when the pandemic first got real for everyone because the NBA cancelled games and it recovered super quick and then you know the rest of 20/20 was actually above 2019 so retail grew. From 2019 and 2020 even though we were like right in the thick of the pandemic and then in 2021 retail really shot up and the. The hypothesis here is there are two things that really caused this number one there was a bunch of. Economic stimulus that was poured into the economy right like there's a lot of extra money available and consumers were in, like generally really good Financial shape so there was a lot of potential to spend and then a lot of the things that might have gotten some of that money experiences like travel in restaurants and vacations, we're not available in the most consumers so instead of paying money for a gym you bought a Peloton instead of going to a restaurant you bought groceries and instead of going on vacation you you got new patio furniture right and so you know the combination of, more money and less things to spend and on ended up being super favorable to retail overall. Scot: [9:59] Yeah that makes it so that it's really a factor of the stimulus is what you're saying. Jason: [10:06] Yeah and we'll talk about the downside of that if they end of this podcast but so that's the industry average and I would remind everyone to be cautious. In thinking about averages because, very few retailers experience the average right like in general there were big winners and losers based on categories and I'm for the purposes of the podcast we're not going to talk about category growth or foot traffic. From 2022 2021 because 2020 was such a weird year because of the pandemic I actually am going to jump ahead in the deck to slide 9 which is where we start talking about, comparing. Last year to 2019 so like what the cumulative changes were over the from before the pandemic to you know at the end of the second year of the pandemic so. Over that two-year growth we grew 22% as I mentioned earlier and so I actually. [11:09] Put together look at what the average to your growth was every year for the last 30 years and in general the average two-year growth is around 10 to 12 percent so 22% is, unprecedentedly High. Two year growth and remember like you know there was in 2008 there was this recession and there was negative growth so you'd think the the year-over-year from that recession would be super high but but this. 2020 and 2021 year is basically the the best years of retail in our lifetime. And so then I go to slide 10 where I show you how fast each category grew and remember if the industry grew 22%. You really want to be growing faster than that 22% so the categories that one the grew faster than 22% we're your new favorite category automobiles. So they grew at 24 percent which was mildly surprising to me because you, you know early on you would assume Car Sales slowed down significantly and then of course there have been all these chip shortages that's made it slightly hard to buy cars, and yet cars were still one of the bright spots does that surprise you at all or were you totally dialed into that. Scot: [12:30] Yeah the counter is the used markets on fire and they're marking the cars up so there's kind of like an inflation of car prices in there that I think. One of the reasons so if there is a car dealers are taking these pretty exorbitant markups on those, which is kind of short-sighted but that's what they're doing and yeah so so it doesn't surprise me too much when you know what surprises me is where did it all go so we had this like tsunami you know anything about retail it's you know it hasn't been over. You know like what, 10% for a long time and then you've got in the two year ago comparison you get up to maybe like 15% so it's like a surge year where did it show up like I can't think. You know amongst the public companies the Walmarts the targets and that kind of stuff I don't really see it I don't see them just like, blowing up expectations and saying oh my God so much money flooded into our coffers. I kind of wonder where it went or maybe it's going to show up and you know in when you when you chart it out it looks like a lot of it came at the end of 21 so maybe we haven't seen it come out and the public markets but it's going to be you know I kind of wonder where it went. Jason: [13:42] Yeah so I would argue that we are seeing it like in the big companies in the Amazon Walmart Target Kroger and certainly Home Depot and dicks we are seeing it. And so I think the car one is a harder one to see because the car you know the actual car dealers are so fragmented because they're all franchisees. Scot: [14:05] Carvanha has seen it carvanha. Jason: [14:06] The Used Car Guys for sure saw it so let's come back to that in one second let's talk about the other two categories that were above the industry average building materials and garden supplies right so that's Home Depot and Lowe's and you know they're there to your growth Stacks were like significantly up from previous years and again. Part of the reason they would be up as people spend a lot more money on their homes when they were traveling last and then and so that category group thirty percent over two years and then Sporting Goods grew 38 percent over two years so that's you know dicks and sporting goods and and those folks and they were seeing like like I want to say the two year growth stack on dicks would be is like 94% or something so. Scot: [14:56] Yeah. Jason: [14:59] So and then the categories that still like had, by historic standards great growth but did not grow as fast as the industry average grocery stores so only grew 16 percent I have to say that surprised me a little bit because I would have. Expected you know with the hit that restaurants took that the grocery would have outperformed the industry average but you know it doesn't seem like it. It did and then, furnishings and furniture and Home Furnishings grew at 21 percent so about the industry average and again because of all the money people spend on their homes I kind of would have expected that to be higher so those two things. Surprise me a little bit. And then the the categories that were you know more significantly hurt by the pandemic like gas and clothing, you know clothing was still up 13% gas was up 15%. And that's what hurt looks like right like so you know up 13 percent against the industry average of 22 percent like that's. You know kind of the the low end and you know I think if you talk to apparel people during the pandemic they would have said like oh we're you know we're experiencing Armageddon if you compare this 13% growth too you know any of the last five or six years for apparel this would have been a great year. [16:23] And then the most inexplicable to me of all and I think it just has to do with the mix in this category is Electronics and appliances are only up 6%. And I I'm totally open if you have a hypothesis cop but like I think everybody bought a lot of extra Home Tech. So especially the beginning of the pandemic everyone's buying extra computers for their kids for homeschooling and everybody's updating their work from home stuff, and you know over the two-year course of the pandemic you know everybody remodeled their kitchen about new appliances so I'm a little befuddled. Why that you know that category is literally the bottom of the Barrel in this the US Department of Commerce data and it's only six percent of growth. Scot: [17:13] Yeah let me look at the year. Jason: [17:18] I have a so while you're looking I'll just I'll tell you I my. My unfortunate hypothesis so there's an enormous flaw in the US Department of Commerce data and that flaw is that they call e-commerce or non stores. A category. So you're either a Peril sale if you sell the clothes through a store or your Anon store sale if you sell the clothes online, and so if you sell a TV out of Best Buy you're in electronic sale but if you sell the TV online for curbside pickup. You're a. Non-store sale and so I didn't mention this earlier but the category that actually grew the most by far during the pandemic is non store sales which are 38% and we, have any good way to know how that breaks down by category so my hypothesis is the electronics category actually probably did better but the it over index to sales going online and therefore it gets office gated in this US Department of Commerce data. Scot: [18:32] Yeah and then accentuating this is the supply chain problems hashtag Supply pain where you know a lot of that stuff you would go into the store for especially big appliances where you kind of want to see it and touch it and feel it before you order it, I know on the order of 10 people that cannot get washers and dryers. So you know that that was all like this big appliances are in and they've been waiting since you know, Q3 last year to get these things it's insane so that could have you know so you have this kind of double edged double whammy of a lot of stuff moving online or non-store from the store in the store or struggling because they can't get inventory for the shelves and you know every electronics item has a chip. Jason: [19:20] Yeah so I do like that I will say it from the data it looks like more of the group The Slowdown was in, 20/20 than 2021 which like kind of argues it like. Scot: [19:35] Yeah attribution. Jason: [19:37] Yeah so but I don't I don't know and so then so that so far everything we've talked about is US Department of Commerce data so I'm also super interested in how many people walked into a store so I asked our friends at Placer AI which is a, a company that has access to a huge panel of consumers that have software on their phones and it tracks where they go anonymously and they use that data to forecast. Retail foot traffic across the country and so I put together a data set so on Slide. [20:21] 11 of the deck you can see how the 20 21 foot traffic every month compared to 2019 and so for the first half of 2021, um foot traffic in retail was still down between 10% and 0%, versus 2019 so fewer people are going to stores in 2021 then we're going to stores before the pandemic. And then by July we had our first kind of Positive Growth since the pandemic so July and August we're kind of up for and six percent over 20 19 respectively, then we had another slight dip in September and then we had a pretty prominent dip in December of 2021 which was probably the Omicron variant kicking in. [21:12] But so in aggregate. There are still fewer people walking in a brick-and-mortar stores in the United States of America in 2021 than walked in a brick-and-mortar stores in 2019. Scot: [21:24] There are some it almost like it seems to be correlated an inverse correlation with case count right so in the summer cases were kind of low everything was feeling pretty good and then we had kind of the surge the Omicron surged kind of come back and here at the very tail end of 21 we saw a really plummet. Jason: [21:42] Yeah no for sure and there are lots of people that I have been correlating these statistics to case counts or hospitalizations or. Or mortality or any of those things in there are strong correlations so you're certainly right. [21:56] Um so then I I said all right well let's double-click on some of the categories that might be interesting and one category that I mainly double clicked on for you was Automotive so for folks that don't know Automotive is the biggest. Category of retail spending and which kind of makes sense because it's the. The highest ticket item so 1.5 trillion dollars in in car sales in 2021 which is 23 percent of all retail spending so we said 6.6%. Six point six trillion in retail 1.5 trillion of it was cars and that's up as we said earlier 24% from 2019 and then I give you kind of the, the shape of that Demand right and and you know so again, the best month in the history of car sales was April of 2021 and then it's been, tapering off a little bit since then but still up significantly from 2020 and 2021 is up nominally from from 2019 so a very vibrant year even though per your point you know it's actually hard to get vehicles right so a lot of this this. Increase in sales is an increase in price points and inflation versus unit sold but I think it is a little bit of both. Scot: [23:20] Yeah the other changes there's a pull forward because what dealers have started doing is pre sailing Vehicles so it's almost like an auction where they'll say Jason I know you want this IMA Mustang and we got three coming in and August but if you want one of those I'm going to need you to, pay me to there now I don't know how that correlates to these numbers but we're seeing this big pull forward of the consumer dollars into the auto category because of this pre-sale thing where, historically it was you would go test-drive negotiate and then buy the car and it was sitting on the lot the inventory model is kind of flipped right now which is interesting. Jason: [23:59] Yeah yeah and I know not not related to sales velocity necessarily but another interesting thing is. The amount of test drives per sale is way down like it used to be like three test drives per sale and now it might be less than one test drive per sale. Scot: [24:17] Yeah it's kind of it's fun being in the auto category because some in some ways I feel like I've seen the movie before right so for example remember when Zappos came out and they disrupted the shoe category by saying free 365 returns, well then everyone would just buy would say well sometimes I'm an 11 sometimes in 11 half and 10 half I'll just order all three in return to. So then everyone had to adapt that new model because consumers flocked to it and the car industry carvanha has had a seven day return for a vehicle and that's how they got around the test drive and everyone laughed at him and was like why would you do that that's ridiculous and then the pandemic it and everyone had to kind of adopt that model so that's that's gotten rid of the test drive most dealers now have had to adapt to that that more customer friendly model and effectively have like a seven day return window. Jason: [25:06] Yeah and you know you've heard me say this before but I've been following the ottoman of category relatively closely and the grocery category for two big reasons they're they're the two biggest pieces of consumer spending but also before the Pandemic those were the two categories that were released digitally disrupted like a small percentage of cars were sold online a small percentage of groceries sold online and so those two categories were the most disrupted by digital they they got the most digital fastest as a result of the pandemic so I've been super interesting because per your point a lot of the learnings that we've had over the last 20 years in the apparel industry in the consumer electronics Industry and the home industry like are now you know playing out in an accelerated basis in the automobile industry and in the grocery industry. Scot: [25:57] Yeah 11 cool example and I know you know these guys so yeah I tell folks a lot about how Walmart budget and it was kind of like this this analog kind of old-school company building bringing deep digital DNA and we would see a lot of that not emotive category and sure enough Discount Tire which is a brick-and-mortar tire shop family-owned what are they like 100 years old or something like that and they just bought Tire Rec which is kind of the you know the online incumbent and they're merging those two companies together so it's funny because everyone thinks I'm kind of a Nostradamus of this stuff because but it's really just, the exact same thing we saw happen in e-commerce with other categories as happening in the automotive category. Jason: [26:42] Groundhog Day yeah sometimes when I'm impatient I really have to avoid telling clients so I know you need to figure this out for yourself but I know how it is. Scot: [26:52] Yeah. Jason: [26:54] But so I mentioned the grocery category that's the next category that I want to talk about briefly so now we're on slide 14 of the deck, and groceries the second biggest category of consumer spending it's fourteen percent of all retail spending so it's, 901 billion dollars in 2021 and and I mentioned grocery was up pretty significantly up 16 percent but but that you know that is a little less than the industry average and I give folks that that same kind of three-year year-over-year graph if they want to see it but then a bonus data breakdown I always like to do for the grocery industry is on slide 16 and this is a, a line graph with two data points grocery store sales and restaurant sales, and what's interesting about that is for like a pretty significant period of time about a 10-year period. Sales were split almost 50/50 between restaurants and grocery stores so all the the American calories were kind of divided 50/50 between McDonald's on Applebee's and Walmart and Kroger and in the pandemic exactly what you would expect to happen grocery sales shot up and restaurant sales you know took a nosedive. [28:13] Over the course of the pandemic they've moved back closer and kind of come summer of 2021 they actually came back to where they used to be so they were kind of level again and we were like I wonder if that, if if that Gap is over but then Omicron appears to have open that Gap backup so at the moment there is still about a ten billion dollar a month discrepancy between spending on on groceries and spending on restaurant so potentially bad news for the restaurants. Scot: [28:48] Yeah well you wouldn't know it at my restaurants or so they're they're they're super busy. Jason: [28:53] Nice. Scot: [28:55] Could be you know we you know it's interesting traveling around the country a little bit now it's like living in 50 different. Countries the way they're covid policies are so you go to you go to Florida and Texas and everything's just open and normal and then you go to the north east or the west coast and things are very much shut down, and here in our kind of a kind of in the middle but we're still struggling our restaurants part of it could be that they're just closing all the time so we have several restaurants that just can't keep their doors open due to this kind of constant struggle between in team members employees and supply chain so you'll you'll go and they'll have to close early because they didn't have anyone to work that shift and then you'll go and they'll be like we're out of you know it'll be a salad place in they'll be out of lettuce you're like yeah guess may not have needed open but they'll be in there with nothing to do so so it's really. The economy is having a really hard time it's really kind of sputtering right now across those things which which could fall into restaurants and bars you know this, looking into this year into 22. There's a lot of grocery stores are have bare shelves and I don't I was going to actually because you're the grocery guy I don't know what's broken in the supply chain there because obviously we don't rely on China for you know, a lot of that stuff so it's not the that specific thing but that seems to have really become discombobulated as well. Jason: [30:21] Yeah so yeah for sure there it turns out like there is for a, a fair segment of the grocery products there is an international component right like so there are weird ingredients that we do depend a lot on on Imports for right so you know even if the Mondelez cookies are made in the US the sugar for the Mondelez cookies is not and so it it is possible for the shipping to to have an impact on Oreo availability it just it tends to be delayed because it's it's more the ingredient than the finished goods that that is getting in. Scot: [31:01] Catching you know maybe the package. Jason: [31:03] The cpg guys even more so right so a lot of the chemicals that get used in cpg products and a lot of the the, the packaging like blue ink for a while was one of the the the constraining factors and so you know, Brands did have a hard decision to make do we like change the color of our packaging so we keep stay on the shelf or do we you know try to stay true to our brand and wait for morning. Which are not decisions you imagine ever have having to make. Um and then you know grocery is have its groceries a very fragile ecosystem margins are really thin and so. More so than other categories of retail the wage inflation has a Major Impact in it it actually. There's a low-wage workers all the way along that supply chain and so you know a big thing that takes out. Domestic food is you know there's a round of covid at the meat processing plant. And that that can you know be a big Regional hit I walked into a breakfast place last weekend and they were out of eggs, and I'm like wait a minute I haven't heard about an egg shortage or like are we having an egg shortage and the guys I know are our manager just screwed up the hole. [32:27] Yeah but I was I was with you I guess yeah what it's questionable why you open if you're a breakfast, restaurant and you don't have any eggs or you should at least put a vegan sign up or something I don't know. So I always like to talk about a parallel because for a long time apparel is like one of the crown jewels of the retail category and people are super excited about that and you know there was an ERA when those were the best jobs so up, Peril is much more it's about five percent of retail sales it was 303 billion despite the fact that we all have been living in sweatpants for the last two years apparel sales were still up 13%, that definitely was a mostly due to a 2022 2021 recovery 2020 was a really bad year for apparel and it started to come back so apparel is one of the few categories on Slide, 18 where I give you the three-year graph of the the category it's one of the few categories where the 2020 sales were consistently below the 2019 sales and then 2021 they, they came back up to the top and you know one interesting fact about a parallel that I give you a data breakdown on 19 is. [33:41] Apparel has just been getting cheaper over time that in the 1990s apparel was seven percent of retail spending and now it's about four and a half percent of retail spending and that's a largely because good clothes are just less expensive and and you know the same closet that an American would have had in 1990 Hassel asks in 2022 and so if you're growing in the apparel industry you're you're growing in a shrinking Market which is you know always a challenge to do. Scot: [34:15] The entire Farm it's kind of shocking to see April 2020 you know touching effectively zero sales and monthly apparel that's crazy that I feel for those guys that must have been a scary. Jason: [34:28] For most of these graphs I change edit the scale to make the graph as high resolution as possible so the bottom of the graph isn't zero but in a Peril it absolutely is. Scot: [34:38] Yeah might as well be easier yeah. Jason: [34:40] Um and so, so that's enough of the categories I know a lot of listeners on our show were particularly interested in e-commerce I wanted to talk about e-commerce for a minute I mentioned the official. Breakdown of e-commerce you know we won't get for December until the middle of February we do get a, a kind of proxy for e-commerce which is called non store sales it is a it is a bigger bucket and it has more other stuff in it than just e-commerce but if I look at, the 11 months of internet data and then the the one month of non store sales data. It's pretty clear that we're going to come in around a trillion dollars in e-commerce sales so if the official numbers work out the way I think this will be the first year the e-commerce in the u.s. is over a trillion dollars. Um that would represent 16 percent of retail sales so 16 doesn't sound like a huge number, but again it just depends on what your denominator is that 16 percent is you know overall of retail which includes, cars which are getting more digital but still aren't very digital it includes gas which is you know only digital in a couple neighborhoods in San Francisco, um and so I you know you start pulling out some of those traditionally non-digital categories and you know. [36:02] That one trillion dollars represents about you know between 20 and 25% of all the categories that that you know people are willing to buy online and so it's become a very meaningful mix and obviously. It was the fastest growing because of the pandemic but inside 21 I show you the the. The three-year breakdown and the thing that's unique about e-commerce versus some of these other categories. [36:32] E-commerce head its monster growth in 2020. So the two-year growth numbers are still amazing but the one year growth numbers from 2021 to 2020 are not so great because we're comping against. [36:46] A monster year and it's been interesting because like Shopify stock is down because their comps aren't very good right but really there you know. They're comping against these monster numbers. You know lots of retailers are calling me right now and they're in a panic because they're not they didn't hit their goals and their their you know numbers are wrong and I'm like. I mean they're you know their numbers are soft and I'm like well but let's look at what really happened like you had unprecedented growth over the last two years and you're you know you potentially are. Thinking about it in the right way so on slide 22 I give you my, entire story of the world going digital in one slide and it's a little hard, hard to follow but basically what I show you is I show you the brick-and-mortar sales every year or every quarter and then on top of that I show you the e-commerce sales so you can see the e-commerce growing you can see kind of, as a portion of retail what it is and then I show you the rate of growth for for retail and e-commerce and until the pandemic we had a pretty consistent story, e-commerce was growing at like between 15 and 20% a year and brick-and-mortar was growing at three to four percent a year and that was pretty reliable, so then the pandemic happens and brick-and-mortar shrinks for a quarter and e-commerce explodes by you know over 40%. [38:10] And since that time they've been coming back and so for the first time in my life time in Q2 of 2021. Brick-and-mortar actually grew faster than e-commerce for the first time ever. Largely because of the you know they're comping against these these you know huge huge March of 2020 and you know I will see you when the data comes out next month but I have a feeling we're regressing pretty quickly now back to the kind of the the pre-pandemic rates of growth like we absorbed all this big e-commerce growth for two years and I can you know I kind of think we're gonna see e-commerce level back down at that 10 to 15 percent growth every quarter and and Retail drop back down to the 45 percent growth of quarter. Scot: [39:06] Well I think it's you know I think the silver lining for me is and I'm the e-commerce guy here is we had the Surge and then we actually did kind of even better than the surgeon you know you could have painted a story that said this will kind of flip – for your to as it kind of the subsides and then then we get back to normal so so the rising tide kind of stuck and created a new high and then we have continued to grow from there how does I know this this agitates you which is why I bring it up but you know this does not support you know that Theory out there that we pulled forward like five years of e-commerce. Jason: [39:43] Yeah no we we didn't and most of the evidence now is that. We're we're not even way ahead of where we would have been that like like we we got the sales early but that. The future growth is. Slightly slower as a result so that like five or 10 years from now you know will see this this blip on the graph but we'll kind of you know end up at the same same place we would have end up without the the pandemic is most people's projections that's less to true in some of these, digitally immature categories like grocery or automobiles where we really did probably pull in you know kind of accelerate two to three years into the future. And so I did on slide 23 I give you the our estimates of the 2021 e-commerce sales for a bunch of retailers because I'm often surprised people. Don't necessarily have. [40:52] The the best perception about how the relative size of all these retailers so these estimates come from emarketer there there gmv us estimate for Amazon is on the high side of all the estimates I. I look at but they have 20 21 gmv for Amazon and about three hundred seventy six billion. Walmart's the second largest e-commerce site by a lot at 60 billion so quite a bit smarter than Amazon. Until recently eBay would have been the second biggest site and Walmart's approaching twice as big as eBay now so they have shot past eBay. To get to 60 billion eBay's at 38 billion apple is at 37 billion and then like people people forget how big a player apple is alone I saw a funny stat that like. If the air buds alone the air pods alone were a company like it would be the 10th largest company. Scot: [41:50] Yeah that's crazy. Jason: [41:52] And so then you get like a Home Depot is almost 20 billion targets 8 almost 19 billion Best Buys on you know over 16 billion, Costco who's the bane of my existence Costco like pays the least attention to digital they you know always talk about how unimportant digital is and how they don't like it, and I tell everyone what a horrible mistake that is and then Costco continues to Excel and despite not trying they sell 14 billion dollars a year on line. [42:24] So then you can see the rest of the the top 15 on that slide on slide 23 if you're interested but it's interesting to understand the. The relative size of some of these companies. And so then you know one of the things that people always ask about is what did holiday look like particularly so the next section of this deck is, a double click on on holiday 2021 and so. I'm defining holiday as November and December sales that somewhat controversial because there's a lot of different ways to think about it. If we just look at November and December sales this holiday period was the the largest retail holiday ever. And it drew about 16.1%, which is vastly faster growth than any other holiday like the next biggest holiday was 10% so so kind of the same story for the whole year we get in Holiday it was a monster holiday, um You know again that depends a little bit on how you Define retail in RF likes to pull gas out of their number so they're there they would say holiday was 14 percent growth which is still. A monster number. So then I went back to our friends and place Rai and said hey what is foot traffic look like every week of holiday. [43:49] And that to me was kind of interesting so. You know December foot traffic was down overall I'll remind you because of Omicron but if we kind of look at the the weekly data for Holiday foot traffic was actually up versus 2019. Leading into the Thanksgiving weekend and so then the weekend that was way down was Thanksgiving weekend way less people went to stores on Black Friday, then went to stores in 2019 about six percent less, and then you know the rest of holiday was slightly above so if it weren't for the decline in Black Friday traffic I would say foot traffic and Retail was up about 2%, over 2019 but that Black Friday dip pulled the whole thing down to where we still aren't back to 2019 levels does that kind of make sense. [44:44] And so one of the things that is a common narrative about holiday and I've even contributed to this narrative is, man retailers are really trying to pull sales in and holiday starting earlier in October and you know holidays flattening it's less about these big, spikes on on Black Friday and Cyber Monday and so now that we have real data I'm like oh well let's see how, how that really held up in the first thing to know is. The early sales in October was kind of a myth like there was not an unusual spike in sales in October and so you know. [45:20] There was not a huge success in pulling sales into October and so then what I did is I went to similarweb which similar web has a data set of e-commerce site visits and what I like about that is, we can get much more accurate granular data than we can on like foot traffic or you know foot traffic or lucky to get weekly data but for e-commerce we can get daily number of sessions or unique visitors or things like that so I said hey let's take the hundred biggest e-commerce sites in the US and let's see total visits and let's compare, 2019 with 2021 and the first thing to remember is. You know Thanksgiving doesn't fall on the same day every year and so what I did is I normalize those I said let's not do November 1st through December 31st, let's do the 25 days before Black Friday in the 32 days after Black Friday so that we could kind of. Match up the the flow and what you'll see is there was a lot more traffic on e-commerce sites every day of holiday in 2021 than 20 then 20, except for two days Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2021 with still above. 2019 but they were nearly the same and so. The I guess what this would say is this partially Bears out our hypothesis. [46:48] E-commerce visits did level out like the traffic did get spread out to the whole 60 days more than ever before but those those two tent poles are still tent poles and they still are by far the busiest days, so I you know I definitely you know think that the narrative that like those Temple days don't matter anymore is kind of a misnomer and they you know they got nearly twice as many visits as a normal holiday day. Did that surprise you at all. Scot: [47:20] The surgeon the chart 21 is interesting at the end I think that's my procrastinator people. Jason: [47:28] So so yeah so. Scot: [47:29] It's where I shop. Jason: [47:29] It's God's talking about is the gap between 2019 and 2020 is pretty consistent but then opens up the most ever has, um the very end of the holiday and my hypothesis for that is again this is e-commerce it's Omicron again so I. There was pent-up demand to go to stores people were going the store store traffic was going up and then store traffic fell off a cliff the last half of December as people started getting nervous and so I think that you know drove more people to e-commerce again as my least is my hypothesis. [48:03] And so so that I think is a super interesting data set I definitely am grateful to have access to the similarweb stuff and wow I was diving into their data Isles one of the cool things there's we can see traffic on individual website so I said, well let's see who the winners and losers are in terms of traffic and the story here is. The the traffic is disproportionately going to the the big high-performing sites so you know not surprisingly, Amazon gets the most traffic but they also got the biggest chunk of traffic growth so sometimes you'd say hey the biggest most established players should be the hardest to grow. Amazon Druids traffic faster than any other top 10 retailer which is pretty impressive, and then the next biggest grower was Walmart so this is kind of the story of the rich getting richer and you know traffic and sales consolidating on the, those those very big a sites which is kind of the story you see on slide 29 if you're following along on the deck. Scot: [49:12] The thing that fascinates me about this data is you have like Etsy with the fourth most traffic but then they're like one of the smaller e-commerce sites right so does that, yeah it does that mean no well that's apples and oranges I guess that's all of retail in the previous comparison. Jason: [49:30] No that was at Seas. These e-commerce sales are about little less than 8 billion in the u.s. versus like Walmart at 60 billion but then Ed C does have like like nearly as much traffic as Walmart right like. I want to say they did 600 million, visits over the holiday period versus Walmart did like 1.1 billion so, so you know despite Walmart being 10 times as large they only had twice as much traffic and I think part of the reason for that is the the. Kind of thin long tail nature of Ed c means that their overall conversion rate and the amount of you know pay visits you have to do to find what you want is. Is higher than then it is on Walmart where you're more likely to go to Walmart with with high purchase intent for a particular item and these days it's pretty easy to find that item and get out. Um and that kind of is born out Ebay is still the second large just traffic site even though they're they're shrinking and again eBay's almost half the size of Walmart but eBay is traffic is still higher than Walmart's. Scot: [50:52] Yeah it's a huge it's kind of sad in one way but it's a huge opportunity Bay could get their act together and convert that traffic the way Walmart is they. Jason: [51:00] Yeah if I could redo our. Our predictions episode so you know I talked about in a number of times on this that one of the big trends is retail media networks and you know people selling ads what this data set uncovers more than anything else is the untapped opportunities Ed C needs to get a retail media Network up as soon as possible because I, as far as I know they don't have one. So they should be monetizing that traffic because that that that that's a valuable asset they're not they're not leaning into yet for all our Etsy listeners so then I will just say in this is you know the Chrome Legend in me, during holiday we talk a lot about these estimates from companies right so Adobe you know you know we have on the show and they give us their real time estimates based on on all the customers they see we have sales force on the show every year and they give us real time estimates and then you know when we talk about that I don't think we've had on the show is Mastercard has this product called spending pulse which is, kind of an anonymous aggregated view of all the people that buy stuff with MasterCard and. [52:08] Just just for interest Adobe MasterCard in Salesforce all agree, um that the e-commerce grew about 10% in in Holiday 9 or 10% and holiday of 2021 and that passes the smell test again we don't have the e-commerce data for for December yet so I don't really know but that. That feels like the right order magnitude so I think you know these guys all credibly predicted, the shape of holiday e-commerce but the only one of these guys that predicts brick and mortar is Mastercard right Adobe and Salesforce are pure online retailers and every year I always get weird data from MasterCard and I say this because the whole. The whole world and especially the media like publish this MasterCard data far and wide and and treat it as fax MasterCard like on December 26th said that, retail sales were going to be up 8.5% and that meant they were going to be up 10.7% versus 2019. And so we now know from the US Department of Commerce data that that they were off by 50%. So just call out to my friends at MasterCard that I'd be curious to understand what's going on there from my. Scot: [53:31] Your category thing. Jason: [53:32] Yeah from my seat Well they argue it's not but from my seat there consistently off on the brick-and-mortar number so I'm I'm curious and so then. [53:42] Every time I have this conversation with a colleague or a client the especially someone that maybe doesn't live and breathe e-commerce every day is soon as you start talking about this monster growth number, what everyone asks is yeah Jason but how much of that is inflation right because the thing we hear about in the media the most. Is is inflation inflation inflation and so you know it stands to reason if. [54:09] You know if something grew by 10% and people are paying more you know ten percent more for everything then that explains it and this you know this is an inflation story not a growth in consumer demand story and so I like to put in. Just a little kind of inflation picture at the end. The so I give I give folks a graph of the government, inflation numbers for for for these three years and and what you can see is that like for most of the pandemic inflation. Kind of stayed in the normal range and then we started this, this huge climb not until January of 2021 so if you remember like all a lot of this growth were talking about was 2020 growth, inflation doesn't explain that growth at all there is significant inflation in all of 2021 and it's historically High it's you know depending on how you want to count it could be a 40-year high and so it finished in December. [55:14] At seven percent and so if you figure normal inflation, is a about 11 and a half percent inflation was already high before the pandemic at 2.3 percent. You know if you say alright it should have been at 2.3 percent and it's at seven percent then you could. Say that the kind of back half of 2021 sales that you know. That three or four percent of it can be explained by inflation but definitely not this 22% were talking about. [55:48] And I don't know if you been thinking about her talking about the inflation a lot it's kind of. It's it's kind of funny because I always like to remind people the long-term picture we're all paying way less for goods than we ever did before so I kind of pull this. This 20-year inflation number to remind people that like we're paying fifty percent for a pair of what we paid 20 years ago we're paying, 30% last for personal products and beauty products were paying 17 percent last four cars we're paying 12% less for food all the tangible stuff we buy is getting cheaper because we're getting better at making, and where the American family's budget is going is to Services right so you know the American families having to pay way less for hard goods and food and way more for housing education and Healthcare and that's the big macro picture, but then we've had like the we talked about a lot of the growth in retail coming from all this economic stimulus, the the downside of that economic stimulus is. [56:47] It actually is one of the contributing factors to inflation right like the people have more money to spend, um they buy more the supply chain wasn't prepared for that buy more and so we have, supply chain disruption and so now you have Supply going down and demand going up and what do people do in a rational Market when they they have high demand and low Supply they they charge more, um and so then you know people say hey everything I buy is more expensive I need to get paid more and we have this unprecedented leverage that workers have right now because the labor shortage so they're all negotiating better prices and guess what that means they can afford. Pay more again and and manufacturers are you know having more costs of labor for making stuff so they're charging more and what's been super interesting and all this is, you know it's kind of an excuse for manufacturers to charge you more like most of these manufacturers that are raising their prices are also setting record profits so it's not like. True that like. All of this information is manufacturers passing costs on to Consumers it's a little bit of the the you know opportunity of the moment of you. Scot: [58:01] Yep it's complicated to the inflation a lot of its gas and then to your point a lot of it's stuff that doesn't have this inherent deflationary element to it like healthcare and we're paying more and more for healthcare education anything that has a service component is shooting way up. But even even in the short term though like yeah everything at the grocery store is insane right now it's crazy. Jason: [58:27] Yeah and food and gas are historically more volatile so inflation goes up and down more like side note you have to take all these numbers with a grain of salt because the way they measure it is, they measure the cost of a basket of goods that an average American bought but they built the basket of goods in like 1945. And so it's not the right past it's for today there's no iPhone in that basket. Scot: [58:50] Yeah. Jason: [58:52] So yeah so it's interesting fun it's fun for me because I'll actually be on Good Morning America this weekend talking about inflation. Yeah always fun but yeah I. I'm with you if you take what's called core inflation where you pull gas and food out inflation's like 4.5% so for most of these retail categories, it's part of the story but it definitely would be a mistake to Discount all this growth and say oh it's just. And that's my scoop that's your 36 slide deck that you're all welcome to grab and use my thanks to all the the data providers that contributed to all of it so I have a, a bibliography at the end so if you're interested in starting to track any of this data on your own I tried to make that easy for you. Scot: [59:41] Yeah when we do when we post the show will also try to get on our socials because I've had some people say they can't find the show notes and so we'll make sure that we disseminate this wide and so everyone has it. Jason: [59:55] Well Scott not surprisingly we were able to perfectly fill up an hour with this one topic. So hopefully you found value in this is Scott mentioned the top of the show if you did we sure would appreciate that five-star review, but thanks everyone for kind of following Along on this like pretty dry difficult data dump episode I hope I hope it was useful please, give us feedback if you liked it or if it was not the right format. Scot: [1:00:23] People of data in retailgeek delivers and until next time. Jason: [1:00:28] Happy commercing!
Fujikura has a new Ventus TR shaft out and it seems to fit right in between the Ventus Blue and Ventus Black. A Slightly stiffer profile and handle section seem to make a tighter and more stable shaft. Cobra has 3 new drivers out for 2022 and I think they are going to do very well. Great ball speed and stability on mishits keep the ball in play.
*Slightly shorter edition* An update from Harvard astrophysicist Professor Avi Loeb on his growing Galileo Project searching for UFO prof and truth. And Sean Cahill - UFO campaigner and former Master at Arms on the USS Princeton when the "tic tac" UFOs were sighted...
Introduction (Recording 12/31) (Airing 1/10)Thank you for listeningFarm4Profit episode vs Farm4Fun EpisodeThank you again for suggesting topics for us to talk about on the podcast and keep them coming. Send those to email@example.com or find us all over social media.We greatly appreciate your help in growing our audience.The listener review today is brought to you by Geringhoff. They are head of the class no matter the crop and product to be the anchor partner of the Farm4profit Podcast@WParkinson4 ***** – I really enjoy the podcast. Ya'll are in the top of my que when a new one comes out.YOU can now review us on Spotify!Commercial: John DeereWhat's Working in AGBW Fusion – Brody Benton1 – What did you see working well for growers in 2021?CornBeansArea Specific?2 – What didn't work well?3 – What should our listeners be thinking about this time of year?Our #1 most requested topic – The field tile exploration (Does it always pay?)We will see how this goes as it might become a multi-part episodeThere are more than six million acres of cropland in Iowa where wetness limits productivity. Slightly more than half of the 375 different soils series mapped in Iowa have problems with excess water. The drainage of farmland is obviously important for improving the productivity of Iowa agriculture. Based on the large number of acres susceptible to excessive wetness and the yield response from removing this wetness, farmers and landowners are becoming increasingly interested in drainage. AND that's just Iowa……..!The two major methods of farmland drainage are surface drainage where standing water is removed using surface ditches and subsurface drainage where excess water is removed through a system of underground drainage tiles – that is what we are going to focus onJoel Hayes – He and his brother run Hayes Bros Drainage in Grundy County Iowa and have been in business since 2009. They have covered most of the state of Iowa during their time in business.Their dad/family also farms around 3500 acresJoel Lange - @centraliowa_rainage - Joel and his family own and operate Central Iowa Drainage in Guthrie County Iowa where they have been farming since 2012.Joel's family moved their entire farm from O-Neill Nebraska to Iowa in 2012General QuestionsWhat is drainage tile?Drain tile is a system of pipes with perforations or holes that channels water away from intended areasField tile is tubing or pipe buried in the ground to convey subsurface water to an outlet such as a stream or ditchWhat are outlets?The structures used to control the minimum elevation at which water leaves the drainage tile, which in turn controls the maximum elevation of the groundwater table in the area drained by the tile system to which the outlet control structure is attached.What are inlets?Purpose: A common practice that is used to. drain farmed depressions is a tile riser, which is essentially a pipe that acts as a direct conduit for water from the field to the receiving ditch or stream. A blind inlet or French drain is used to filter at least sediment from the water that is drained from the field.Why do we install drainage tile?The purpose of subsurface drainage is to lower the water table in the soil. The water table is the level at which the soil is entirely saturated with water. The excess water must be removed to a level below the ground surface where it will not interfere with plant root growth and development. The major reason for installing subsurface drainage is to improve the productivity of the farmland. Higher yields translate into more returns. This is especially true in recent years due to higher grain prices. So the investment decision is based on whether the higher crop returns will justify the investment in subsurface drainage.Types of tilePerforatedSolidComes with socksHow long is tile good for?When does it need replaced?Useful life of clay tileWhen was plastic first installedIs that plastic technology improved for today?Is there a right time to install tile?Always….Is there a wrong time to install tile?Reasons to tile when inputs are highWe want to put tile in….how do we get started?Prepare a planContact the USDA for approval – starts at the FSA officeWhat are recommended best practice steps to take?Mistakes to avoid?If it's hard to expand your farm by buying high priced ground or renting more ground, how can tile help improve your bottom line?Tiling for a tax deductions…..does this work?Better than equipment purchases?Any specific tile tax breaks?Figuring out return on investment on tileCan you believe the information coming from tile guys? – Do they just want to sell more tile?Are there other resources to use? ISU Ag Decision MakerThe most difficult part of computing a tile investment analysis is estimating the yield response from the improved drainage. The size of the expected yield improvement dramatically impacts the economic feasibility of installing tile drainage, as shown in the example below.Example:A 10 bushel per acre yield response from corn and a 4 bushel per acre yield response from soybeans will provide an average annual return of $35 for corn at a price of $3.50 price ($3.50 x 10 bu. = $35) and $36 for soybeans at a price of $9 ($9 x 4 bu. = $36). If the yield responses are 20 bushels for corn and 8 bushels for soybeans, the returns are double.Estimating future returnsIn the analysis above we assumed that the annual income stream will stay constant throughout the entire life of the tile. However, this may not be the case. Corn and soybean yields have increased over recent decades as shown in Figure 3. Corn yields have increased by 2.4 percent and soybean yields by 1.8 percent per year since 1980. Most experts expect this trend to continue, if not increase. The impact of trend yield increases over the life of the tile drainage can be substantial.Tile Investment StrategiesA variety of investment strategies have emerged for the installation of tile drainage. Some of these are based on installations over a period of time. Others are investment arrangements between tenants and landlords on rented land.1) Install subsurface drainage on the entire field With this strategy, the decision is made to install drainage tile on the entire field or farm. Bids and designs are obtained from various tilers, and the decision is made to move forward with tiling the entire field or farm. 2) Design the entire drainage system but install over a period of years – This is similar to the strategy above in that the drainage system for the entire field or farm is designed up-front. However, the actual investment and installation of tile drainage is spread over a period of years, often as income becomes available.3) Invest a fixed amount of money in drainage With this strategy, the investment decision is based on spending a fixed amount of money on drainage. The system is then designed to get the most drainage benefit from the limited amount of money. Although this may optimize the benefit from the investment, it often leads to a “patchwork” system as subsequent investments are made over a period of years and does not provide for the best overall drainage system.Landlord/tenant strategies 1) Landlord Investment Strategy – The traditional landlord/tenant investment strategy is for the landlord to make the tiling investment and charge the tenant a higher cash rental rate. The higher cash rental rate is due to higher yields achieved from the drainage and provides the landlord with a return on his/her tiling investment.The additional cash rent can be computed from the estimated increase in net return from tile installation. For example, if the cash rental rate is currently based on the typical rate in the local community, the new rate will be the typical rate plus the additional net return from the estimated increase in net returns from drainage.The additional cash rent can be computed based on a fixed rate of return from the tile investment. For example, if the tiling investment is $500 per acre and a rate of return of 8 percent is desired, the additional cash rent is $40 per acre ($500 x 8% = $40). If the cash rental rate is currently based on the typical rate in the local community, the new rate will reflect this typical rate plus $40.2) Tenant Investment Strategy – The tenant makes the tile investment on the landlord's farm. Because the landlord makes none of the investment, the cash rental rate does not increase due to the increase in productivity. The additional net returns go to the tenant as compensation for the tiling investment. A major concern for the tenant is whether he/she will have access to the land for a long enough period of time to justify the capital investment. One approach is to enter into a long-term lease between the two parties. However, individuals often do not want to lock themselves into a lease for this length of time. In Iowa, farm leases of five or more years in length must be recorded and multiple-year leases may not exceed 20 years.Another option is to continue with one year leases but execute an ancillary contract dealing specifically with the tiling. Under this contract the tenant receives a pro-rata buyout of the tiling investment from the landowner if he/she ceases to rent the farm during the lifetime of the tile.For example, assume the tiling investment is $400 per acre and the life of the investment is 20 years. If the tenant ceases to rent the land after five years, he/she receives a payment of $300 per acre. Leaving after 15 years results in a payment of $100 per acre and after 20 years there is no payment.The length of the buyout period is negotiable between tenant and landlord. The buyout payment can be made by the landlord. An alternative is for the new tenant to make the buyout payment to the tenant that is leaving and take over the remaining life of the contract.3) Shared Investment Strategy – The landlord and tenant share the tiling investment and use a crop-share lease. The investment is shared in the same proportion as the crop is shared in the leasing arrangement (e.g. 50/50). With this arrangement, each party receives the additional net returns in the same proportion as the investment. An arrangement is made where the tenant will receive a prorated buyout if he/she leaves the farm before the useful life of the tile is expended. An alternative is for the landlord to make the investment and modify the crop share lease provisions to reflect the change in contribution.Cost share programs?Tied in with bio-reactors?Payment plans? Any other comments or items you'd like to bring up and share?What do you know now that you wish you would have known sooner?SummaryChallengeReminder to like, rate, and review. Please don't hesitate to share the “Mullet of Podcasts” with your friends. We look forward to sharing more time with you next week on our Farm4Fun Episode.
With today’s leftist Ahab-like obsession with the “insurrection” of January 6, it seems like as good a time as any to post the lecture I gave last summer in Budapest (cue scary Dracula music here) last summer on “What’s Going on in America?” My summary answer: America is having a nervous breakdown. Slightly longer summary: […]
With today’s leftist Ahab-like obsession with the “insurrection” of January 6, it seems like as good a time as any to post the lecture I gave last summer in Budapest (cue scary Dracula music here) last summer on “What’s Going on in America?” My summary answer: America is having a nervous breakdown. Slightly longer summary: we’ve seen this before in many ways, and sometimes worse, such as in the 1960s. However, some things about the present moment are much more ominous than in the 1960s, such as how leftist postmodern dogma, which is indistinguishable from nihilism, has settled at the core of nearly all of America’s institutions, including big business and the churches. Recovery from this will be more difficult than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. I still intend to turn this lecture into a longer article, but I'd love to hear from readers on this thesis and answer the question: should my next book be “America's Nervous Breakdown”? Or would a book on reviving breakdancing be better?
What's happening today: Cedars-Sinai seeing rapid rise in COVID hospitalizations; L.A. City Council to return to virtual meetings; UCLA study says nearly a quarter of fast food employees contracted COVID; Recent rains make a dent but not enough to end drought; College basketball disruptions continue due to outbreaks. This program is made possible in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people. Support the show: https://laist.com
Ben Challoner (Third Window Films Podcast) and Joe (The Wire Stripped, Shitegeist podcast) join Flixwatcher remotely for the last episode of 2021 to review Ben's choice Tokyo Godfathers. Tokyo Godfathers is a 2003 Japanese animation tragicomedy written and directed by Satoshi Kon. Three homeless people Gin - a middle-aged alcoholic, Hana - a transgender woman and Miyuki - teenage runaway discover an abandoned baby on Christmas Eve and end up on a wild adventure when they try to reunite baby and mother. Son himself calls Tokyo Godfathers “a twisted sentimental story” despite the Christmas setting and Three Wise Men elements that is where the warming festive spirit ends as the story progresses there is murder, beatings, suicide and the reality of being homeless. This might sound depressing but there is also humour and hope. [supsystic-tables id=248] Recommendations for Tokyo Godfathers were very high - even from Helen! Slightly lower repeat viewing but higher engagement - unless you find subtitled animation sleepy - gives an overall rating of 4.20. Merry Christmas from Kobi and Helen, see you in 2022! Episode #236 Crew Links Thanks to Episode #236 Crew of Ben Challoner (@BenjyBox) and Joe Kiely (@Shitegeistpod) Find their Websites online at https://letterboxd.com/benjybox/ And at https://letterboxd.com/benjybox/ And at https://blubrry.com/shitegeist/ And at http://www.shitegeistpod.com/ Please make sure you give them some love More about Tokyo Godfathers For more info on Tokyo Godfathers, you can visit Tokyo Godfathers IMDb page here or Tokyo Godfathers Rotten Tomatoes page here. Final Plug! Subscribe, Share and Review us on iTunes If you enjoyed this episode of Flixwatcher Podcast you probably know other people who will like it too! Please share it with your friends and family, review us, and join us across ALL of the Social Media links below.
EP283 - Year End Review It's our final show of 2021! We recap the US Dept of Commerce November Advanced Retail Sales Data. We do a deep dive into the retail industries growth from 2019 through November 2021. In those 23 months, the retail industry grew 22%, historically fast growth. There were clear winners and losers. If you want to follow along on with all the data, here is a visual recap of retail growth 2020-2021. (PDF Download). We also highlight the six most important trends of 2021. Amazon fulfillment capacity growth (Amazon and Walmart become shipping companies) Social Media becomes the discovery channel for e-commerce (led by live-streaming) Ultrafast delivery services Amazon invents and starts to scale a grocery store (Amazon Fresh) with just walk out technology Retail Media Networks explode, led by Amazon's $30B in ad sales. Retailers now compete with social media networks for eyeballs Apparel has shifted from designer led to consumer led, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of Shein We're so very grateful to our audience, both for the time you have shared with us, and for generous opinions, feedback, and knowledge that many of you have shared. We wish you all the very best holidays and New Years, and look forward to seeing you in 2022! Episode 283 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 283 being recorded on Tuesday sept December twenty first twenty Twenty-One I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason how are the holidays treating you so far. Jason: [0:46] They are treating me really well it's been super interesting what's going on in our industry and getting ready to take the family to California to see my mom and brother. Scot: [0:59] Very fun California versus Chicago seems like a smart smart choice this time. Jason: [1:04] Yes early and my relationship with my wife we agreed that we would visit her Michigan in-laws and Thanksgiving and my California relatives in December seems weather prudent if nothing else. Scot: [1:16] Yeah smart I like your like you're negotiating strategies so we are recording this here live on December 21st so we are in the very last tail end of holiday 21 and Jason you had some some interesting data that you had parse through that I thought we could start with it's going to be largely kind of the November data but it's kind of the best data we have, until we get into January and see how the holiday played out and then we'll do a quick checkpoint on what you're hearing from clients and then I think both of us wanted to kind of share our big stories for retail and e-commerce for 2021 so why don't you kick us off with some data. Jason: [1:57] That sounds amazing so yeah so the data we are talking about is the US Department of Commerce data we get a an update every month so you know last week we got the, the update that includes November and in general November sales were up sixteen percent from November of twenty twenty so I always coach people that we should look at year-over-year not month over month so pretty healthy growth in 2021 from 2020 if you look at year-to-date so January through November we are up about 18% from 2020 and if you look at e-commerce we were up about 12 percent from November of 2020 so I you know I always put this data out on social media and I got a ton of, interesting responses this year on that data everyone's like hey Jason why are you comparing to November of 2020 like we're in the middle of the pandemic everything was all topsy-turvy like it's like comparing, pandemic 2021 numbers to pain demick 2020 numbers isn't very helpful to me because everything is so confusing. [3:13] And so I kind of took that to heart like you know it is the best kind of comparison we have about how we're doing but I said oh you know the more interesting comparison is maybe we take. One step back and we compare the. The the last two years of data to two years ago so we kind of compare how much growth we've had during the pandemic with what girls look like before the pandemic and I hadn't hadn't really done that in a while and what I found was interesting and in a few cases it surprise me. Scot: [3:46] I feel like we should create a new word for this I'll work on it in the vein of a ship again yeah that's just boring I don't know. Jason: [3:54] Yeah yeah de or. Yeah every CEO in America has learned to say you're over two years ago by the way and for it's super funny for non-gaap metrics in the and in the 10-qs they. Like it's they kept they completely cherry-pick like if the number is good they take versus last year and if it's bad they take versus two years ago. Scot: [4:18] Yeah yeah that's the nice thing you need everything every number needs to be up into the right. Jason: [4:23] My takeaway there is you CEOs are oily. Scot: [4:25] We know we're strategic. Jason: [4:29] Got it potato potahto. Scot: [4:31] Cool what did this year over your year over year over last year review. Jason: [4:37] Yeah so if we say hey from how much has retailgeek grown in 2020 and 2021 as a two-year stack it has grown 22 percent, so you know people talk about like all the struggles and challenges we had during the pandemic but if I see if I got in a time machine and no pandemic just told every retail CEO how would you feel about growing 22% over the next two years, the vast majority of CEOs would have jumped at that and then if you said and our life is going to be totally disrupted by this pandemic. [5:14] I think every retail CEO in America would have said I'd be thrilled to get through the next two years with 22 percent growth so that was interesting and then I said I wonder how that compares historically so I got in the hot tub time machine and I pulled all the data from 1990 through today and I restated every year as its growth versus the previous two years to kind of come up with this standard metric to compare against the 22 percent and 22% is unprecedentedly high it's by far the biggest two-year growth we've had since 1990 there's only a few years that that just tickled 15% so I can 2000 we hit 15 percent and in 1994 we hit 15% but like, most of the. The this last decade we were kind of tickling in the kind of six to eight percent growth so 22 percent growth. On average for the whole retail industry is a huge win and unprecedentedly more growth than we would traditionally get does that surprise you at all. Scot: [6:26] It doesn't sort of make sure I understand it's all retail so it's offline and online in Aggregate and then you can't just divide it by 2 right because there's compounding in there so it's not really two years of 11 it's probably like I don't know 12 in an 8 or something. Jason: [6:41] Yes so you are correct now and. That 20 yes and all of this data it does include compounding the the compounding is an interesting point which will come up in a another piece of data in in just a minute but yeah so this is all like literally looking at the. Aggregate sales for 2019 and the aggregate sales for 2021 and saying how much bigger was 2021 than 2019. Scot: [7:08] Yeah did you run a kegger so in MBA school they would say well you can actually unpack the compounding by look at the compounded annual growth rate. Jason: [7:17] Yes yes I am familiar with the math I did not. Scot: [7:21] Okay it was two years it's not going to be that substantial yeah repeat. Jason: [7:24] No that's the yeah it's right typically like with like a five-year Horizon it makes a lot more sense but yeah it would have been interesting but it just I had to your data so I was just trying to come up with an Apples to Apples. Scot: [7:36] Not feels feels like a wind. Jason: [7:38] Yeah so then I said alright well that's interesting on average retail is a huge win. [7:44] Very obviously there are winners and losers so I said alright well let's look at all the categories that the US Department of Commerce gives us. Based on that 2-year stack and there were you know and who was at the industry average who wildly outperformed the industry average and who underperformed the industry average and there are some things that made total sense to me and we're not surprising and then there were some pretty big surprises in there so, the the category that out of the US Department of Commerce data that grew the fastest was, non store sales which is kind of our e-commerce proxy right and it grew 39 percent so almost twice as fast its total retail that's pretty intuitive you know again you're hearing a lot of. E-commerce growth is slowing. Wagon November as more people went back to stores you know compared to this like you know pandemic impacted 20/20 but when you look at onto your stack, e-commerce is still the fastest growing part of retail at group 39% from 2019 and that certainly didn't surprise me the next two categories sporting goods and building materials, also really didn't surprise me because we kind of talked about them being, the big pandemic winners that like you know people then go to the gym so they bought stuff from Dick's Sporting Goods people didn't go on vacation so they built a new patio with materials from Home Depot and so kind of all the that Services Revenue. [9:14] Shifted into retail and that gave sporting goods and building materials a big a big kiss. Motor Vehicles which at one point people were saying like oh my God that's going to be a horrible category in the pandemic Motor Vehicles actually outperformed the industry average so they grew at 24 percent versus 22 percent for total retail. And then here's where we start getting surprises. Slightly below the industry average was furniture and Home Furnishing so that grew at 21 percent versus the industry average of 22 and if you just asked me to bet I would have said in the same way that building materials and Home Improvement stores. Got extra spending from the pandemic I would have expected furniture stores to get extra spending from the pandemic as well and so it surprised me that they were only at the industry average and the only my only hypothesis is. Did they have more disruptions from supply chain like why. Was it just harder for them to scale up to make more sofas to meet the increased demand and so they, they grew healthy but they didn't grow as healthy as they might have because they they couldn't double their us Workforce to build more couches. Scot: [10:23] The feels right the furniture industry has been here in North Carolina that's our primary one and they're just destroyed by the supply chain they can't there was a series of events that couldn't get phone because of the fire and awesome remember that that seems like a year ago but it actually wasn't go to the summer and then with this quote-unquote Supply pain they haven't been able to get the other inputs like anything fabric while that stuff made in China and shipped over here and sitting on a boat somewhere. Jason: [10:50] Yeah and I feel like it's a double whammy for them because it's harder than ever to make stuff but there's actually they could sell more than ever before if they could make it so it's like, it almost feels worse than knowing there's demand that you can't meet. Scot: [11:01] Yeah it's painful. Jason: [11:03] Yeah so then general merchandise grew at 16 percent versus of retail 22 percent and then the one that surprised me most that I talk about a lot is grocery grew at 16 percent versus the industry average of 22 percent and I would have said man a ton of spending shifted from restaurants to grocery stores they were another pandemic winner and so I'll be honest I don't have a perfect hypothesis for why. Again sixteen percent is Healthy Growth and by historical standards it's better than any two-year period since 1990 so I don't want to say oh you know they had a rough time they had a good time but surprising that they were below the industry average to me a little bit. You have any great Insight that I didn't think of on why that would be. Scot: [11:52] I don't maybe it's like a mix thing underneath the hood like the e-commerce grew so much doesn't it like well I'll be in this category are rules so if. Jason: [12:02] Imperfect yes so you are right like one of the wrinkles in all of this is. The way the US Department of Commerce treats e-commerce as another category which is unfortunate right because you know when someone shifts from buying a exercise bike in a Dick Sporting Good to buying a dick exercise bike from Dick's Sporting Goods.com. The sale leaves the sporting good category in enters the non-store category and so that's. That's not really Apples to Apples and then of course this is all done with surveys that are in perfectly filled out by human beings and so how different retailers respond to that survey is also inconsistent so you got it. This data is super helpful directionally but you definitely don't want to get too wrapped around the axle of the minutiae of the data because it's just an imperfect methodology. [12:52] And so then the the categories they did the worst, do make sense with one outlier for a couple hours for me so gasoline only grew at 14%, you know again make sense to me that they you know underperformed when people aren't commuting to work surprising 14% sales are still pretty good growth clothing is near the bottom at 12% growth so again clothing over the last two years did not shrink they still grew at 12% which might have been their average rate of growth I should do that waiters pulled just the category growth over the last 30 years. But compared all these other categories obviously closing was was poor and the Very lowest category is restaurants and bars which still grew six percent so that all makes sense but then there were two two categories in the cellar that I would have expected to do better health and personal care grew at 11% and Electronics and Appliances grew at seven percent so those are both pretty far under the industry average and you know those are two categories. They had some complication they had pros and cons you know within that category but by and large I guess I was surprised to see them so well. Scot: [14:06] Yet Health and Beauty one because Aaron was zooming like the makeup sales shot way up so it's got to be a you know it was e-commerce. Jason: [14:15] Lipstick sales actually went way down because of the Mask but mascara and skincare went way up it's so funny bye. Um so, then I just did one other sanity check so you know people like a couple people a couple of Industry analysts even like responded to my data and said yeah just don't believe the numbers and I'm like just some understanding you you're saying you don't believe the US Department of Commerce numbers not like I didn't make any of these numbers upright bike. [14:45] And and the US Department of Commerce data is imperfect I would argue it's. The best we have access to and it's it's a bunch of you know PhD in statistics that have you know the force of law to you know to enforce compliance with their survey so I it's better than any other survey out there for whatever that's worth but so I thought how can I do a chance sanity check on this data and I'm like oh all the public retailers are required to report their growth every quarter so we could try to create a year over two year growth for all of these public retailers and compare it to the industry data and some of these public retailers are in a particular category so you can you know pretty safely assume all their sales are in that category so you could kind of use that as a sanity check so I pulled I don't know I guess it's about 25 companies and I converted their quarterly growth into a two-year stack and here I will confess I took a shortcut and if there's any mathematicians that want to help me solve this problem I will toy do it these. Draws numbers are not compounded growth so the problem is we don't have annual growth rates from the Retailer's we have quarterly growth rate so basically you have to. Aggregate for quarters of growth and then. [16:11] Calculate it over two years and so I took a lazy shortcut and I just added their. 20 growth to their 2021 growth so we have basically seven quarters of growth for most of these retailers and it's it's what they call a two-year stack which means growth from 2019 plus 2020 and while the math is not right there by the way right because of. Like the compounding problem of your 2020 growth include your you know growth over 2019. This is how most retailers reported in their earnings so when they talk about to your growth for these non-gaap measures where they try to put themselves in the best light and they report their two year growth they're almost never talking about a compounded number like if you read the footnote. They're they're adding the growth from those two years so this is how they're doing the math in most cases for whatever that's worth but so that's way more precursor than we need the retailer that grew the public retailer the grew the most over the last two years total shocker to me I would not have expected in a million years is Burlington Coat Factory. That Drew 85% and to put that in perspective, they sell apparel which did not do very well in the pandemic and they turned off their website their e-commerce site the month before the pandemic. So they didn't sell any a long line. Scot: [17:34] They're not really opening a lot of stores either. Jason: [17:36] No I mean they may have opened a couple stores over the whole two years but like this is mostly comp sales growth so it actually kind of, factors out new store. Scot: [17:46] Okay so it's cops okay. Jason: [17:47] Yeah this is these numbers that ye are based on currency adjusted comp sales just in the u.s. wherever possible so so Burlington's a total outliner congratulations to them surprising to me Amazon is was the second fastest grower and all public retail at 61 percent over two years which. Doesn't surprise me that super impressive but you'd expect to see them near the top of this list then you see Dick's Sporting Goods at 57 percent and again, like from from the industry data Sporting Goods was the second fastest growing category behind e-commerce so Amazon as a proxy for e-commerce and dicks is approximately for sporting goods makes total sense but then things start getting interesting the next fastest grower was Ulta which is personal care at 36 percent so they grew much better than did the. The personal care category now they're less than half the personal care category the slightly bigger version of them would be Sephora but Sephora is actually owned. Buy a house of Brands and so it's harder to get their data. [19:01] Bed Bath & Beyond group 35% which is impressive Target group 34 percent, Home Depot which again was in one of these these outperforming categories grew 33% was group 28% by comparison Best Buy grew 29% in this it doesn't surprise me the best bike route 29 percent but this is. Makes that the fact that Electronics was one of the slowest growing categories at 7% make even less percent make even less sense I guess it's it's hard to imagine how. Electronics only grew seven percent over the last two years when you know everyone bought all this extra equipment for homeschooling and home entertainment and then with Best Buy growing 29 percent it's even harder to imagine. Scot: [19:53] Yeah maybe in a perfect world you could then split like something like that into store non-store store / e-commerce and maybe that would tell the story. Jason: [20:00] Yeah yeah again that's like one of the few the, my few answers to to a number of these anomalies and then I know this is like all these numbers in a podcast sock but like then you start getting into like Abercrombie & Fitch 28% Costco 26 percent, Cole's Nordstrom's Walmart grew at 21% which again for you know a huge company, the fortune one company to grow at the industry average is pretty good Nike grew at 20%. T.j. Maxx at 15% and the the bottom three. A surprise into not surprises so the second worse and third two words were Dollar Tree in Dollar General at 10% growth which is kind of surprising. You know consumers were kind of flush with cash with all the extra economic stimulus they weren't really slowing down their spending and so like you know maybe it wasn't a great season for the value shoppers but a lot of the news was about how these dollar stores were opening tons of stores and we're really thriving so interesting that they both only Drew. 10% and then the the worst performing public company on this was Macy's which grew six percent over the two years not totally surprising. Scot: [21:18] Isn't that the one that Prophet G said was going to crush. Jason: [21:24] Be there be there the future of retailers Macy's not Amazon yeah this chart unfortunately yeah contradicts that prediction so we'll have to wait and see are you Scott Galloway fans you just hang on hang on to your stick to your guns. Scot: [21:38] Good luck with that. Jason: [21:41] Yeah so that's my the rabbit hole that the stupid November numbers took me down so as you can imagine none of my clients got any deliverables in November. Scot: [21:52] When people tell you they don't believe the data what are they reacting to. Jason: [21:57] I think there's a couple categories there are people that are like hey it's the the month-over-month is interesting but like. Who cares right because these are all anomalous months and that's why I went for this two-year stack and and so. My point was I think like when people are saying hey I don't I don't believe the data I actually don't think they meant they don't believe that this is the data that the US Department of Commerce reported I think they're both saying in some cases, I don't think the US Department of Commerce can count very well and what they mostly hang their hat on is is the non store sales not being right and that's fair right like when someone at Best Buy fills out a survey the US Department of Commerce would like them to put their e-commerce sales in one box and their store sales in another box. [22:47] And do they do that I don't know right and does every retailer do that. Properly and consistently I can tell you that the person assigned to fill out the surveys is generally not the most senior accountant at the it's usually not the CFO. Um so so that is imperfect and then what I think they're saying more is. Maybe don't make all your future plans based on like this snapshot of the world because you know we are looking at a unique set of circumstances that resulted in this data right so if you mistakenly thought my takeaway was retail is better than ever and you know everybody should double down because you know retailers is the most thriving industry in the world 22 percent growth is amazing and it's going to continue forever. [23:36] Yeah no that's not what I'm saying I'm just saying that like it's interesting there were positive and negative impacts on all these businesses as a result of the pandemic but on the aggregate. The impact was disproportionately positive and I don't think that that is sustainable right like I you know I think we will hope to drop down to the regular the sort of pre-pandemic growth levels and potentially. We pulled some growth forward and we might even see some more lean years because we you know absorb so much growth this time. Scot: [24:10] This a long way of you saying you now agree with the the Goldman Sachs chart that showed five years of acceleration. Jason: [24:15] No no I think that still is pretty clear and they were primarily talking about e-commerce which definitely didn't happen. Scot: [24:23] Checking. Jason: [24:25] So that's my my deep dive into data and if there's there can't be anything more fun than listening to a podcast about a bunch of dudes being a bunch of numbers so I will I'll do two things I'll try to put some of this data in the show notes but what I'll do is I'll put a link in the show notes to download some charts with this data in it. Scot: [24:46] Very cool I actually like you spewing data so maybe I'm just an audience of one. Jason: [24:53] You may be in a liar. Scot: [24:56] So what are you seeing so that kind of gets us through November what are you seeing here in December I poked around on the usual spots for the Adobe and the sales force and a couple others and it's really weird they've been kind of quiet since since kind of the Cyber week what what are you hearing from your clients. Jason: [25:17] Yeah so I don't know like there's not good data that's already reporting December sales for holiday but so anecdotally talking to a bunch of clients and talking to some of these companies that do have internal data. December is looking like a good month right and so the. My kind of aggregate estimate is holiday for 2021 is going to end up being about. Nine percent bigger than holiday 2020 and again you say well as nine percent good or bad by historical standards it's pretty darn good most most years we get about a holiday grows less than the rest of the year because there's so much extra volume in it so most years we get about five percent growth in holiday in 2019 we got four percent growth 9% is a big number and last year was a pretty big growth year and so. Um you know also around nine percent so nine percent on top of 9% is a. Pretty big deal I have seen some estimates that think it'll grow even more than nine percent this year to put that in perspective the last time before last year there grew nine percent would have been like 1999 so so not only do we have great growth over two years we do have great holiday growth one huge caveat. [26:43] The trend up until about a week ago was, that more people were returning to the store store traffic was going up we were seeing kind of pre-pandemic shopping behaviors and e-commerce was still a big deal bigger than ever before but the rate of growth was swelling because, there was so much pent-up demand and go to stores lots of people were planning on getting together with their family like there was a funny Walmart stat about you know how much bigger the turkeys were that got sold this year than last year because people were, we're entertaining a lot more so, unfortunately in kind of real-time chats with most of my clients in the last week we have seen foot traffic to stores dramatically curtail and it feels like. We're very quickly getting a lot of negative Media news around and I say media but I guess it's based on the data about Omicron and the hypothesis is there either, Omicron has people scared and so they're not going to stores or a second hypothesis is everyone desperately wants to have their family gathering so they're being extra cautious leading up to Christmas but in either case, we're seeing this last-minute pivot to e-commerce and that has some impacts like the shipping companies that actually been doing. [28:04] Much better job this year than last year on keeping up with ship again in but if suddenly everyone you know runs towards e-commerce these last two weeks that could really put. [28:15] Shipping in Jeopardy in a in a really vulnerable time when they have a lot of Labor challenges so yeah I don't know it's kind of a Debbie Downer bit of news in this whole thing. Scot: [28:26] Yeah yeah I'm a crime that has a it's going to put next year kind of up into a question mark of what happens is and then. The thing that's really frustrating trying to operate a business during this time frame is the bookmarks of good and bad are so wide that. Dirty you have no idea but you drive a truck through and right there 180 degrees so you read one new source it's like oh it's super mild and it's almost going to act like its own vaccine then you see another source and it's like we're all gonna die. Somewhere hopefully we're somewhere in the middle there. Jason: [28:58] Amen Ya Know It's Tricky yeah and kind of evaluating all these data sources that's like the new the new societal challenge right. Scot: [29:09] It really is. Jason: [29:12] So I'm wondering so that's that's kind of my holiday snapshot some good news and some bad news in there I wanted to take a couple minutes on this podcast because I think this is going to be our last show of the year to kind of zoom out from the minutiae and just kind of think about the year in totality and kind of, don't know you know highlight what we think are the big things that happened in our industry this year that might impact us going forward how do you feel about that. Scot: [29:39] Let's do it you want to go first. Jason: [29:41] I mostly wanted you to go first because I thought I would surprise you and make you get bet answers while I thought about it. Scot: [29:48] Okay I'll go first so so I'm going to try to limit it to three because we. Yeah we could go on for for a long time here so I think the highlights of this year for me, it would be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't think a little bit about Amazon the. Build out of Amazon's shipping infrastructure and I feel like we say this every year but it's accelerating and there's some really good data we want to have a guest on that's publishing some data on this just Amazon has built more capacity in the last two years than they had in the last 10 so they've used the pandemic as a you know the response to it and they've gotten kind of cover I guess you could say is to really. 10x down on fulfillment infrastructure where where you get the most feeling of that is that the last mile which is this DS p– program that they've just really scaled up massively. This touches my my day job because it's Biffy we'd service a lot of these folks and they're just they're everywhere and, you know it used to be they would kind of work out a fulfillment systems then they built these fulfillment centers now they've got these see the last word of station what are they call them. [31:02] Delivery stations that have a whole new nomenclature where they now are have these forward-deployed areas where the dsps are almost housed and Aggregates you'll go to these places and it's pretty well that I've seen several of them now and they'll be like 20 dsps operating out of there these little micro businesses and you know just. [31:22] Prime Vans as far as I can see. Where is the stat that I think is kind of the most interesting is the Amazon did disclose that they plan to ship more than then FedEx this year and then I think they said in the next couple of years they'll exceed the USPS as far as package delivery it doesn't surprise me just given the scale that they are throwing at this thing. For example you can't buy a van today because the Amazon is just pretty ordered all the vans so it's pretty fascinating the scale they've done there. The thing that in our will do our annual predictions but I've been annually predicting that they would compete more directly with FedEx and UPS by offering just package delivery to anybody I just feels like we're a lot closer to that but I say that every year so we'll see, the other surprise for me is the explosion of this 15-minute grocery delivery world the most people have probably their first experience this or the first company heard was go puff and it wasn't really a 15-minute thing it was just kind of faster it was almost hours then you had instacart really scale up and then what's happened is the service level on these things it's got lower to the point where they're all trying to get you something in 15 minutes. It's a smaller number of skus than you would get with like Amazon's 300 million skus available so it's typically going to be. [32:43] You know you probably have a cool word for it but it's like snacks and oh my gosh I'm out of a soda I need or ice cream things that you kind of have an urgent hankering for and are willing to pay to scratch that itch a little bit more. On the shipping and handling fees and those kinds of things these are kinds of things when I talk to people they're like yeah that little the economics will never work in the be no one will ever use it and then everyone's always surprised because you can never underestimate the convenience or any consumer that when you give them the choice to do something with convenience they will, they will do it and they will order things you would never have thought about. I remember when Amazon rolled out Prime now they were shocked that the toilet paper and personal products were such a high considered item and it's just you know. People people don't plan ahead and they run out of stuff and they want it right then and there willing to pay extra for it so that one's pretty interesting and you track this probably even better I do Amazon's going after this one and then there's like, 10 startups in there that are have all raised, billions of dollars go puff just announcer one and a half billion dollar extension of their last round by layering on some debt so there's one called like gorillas or gorillas and. [33:55] Tons of these things out there but Amazon scaling it up too so it's gonna be interesting to see if any of these guys can make Headway against Amazon or Famas on will just crush them. [34:05] And then the last one is live-streaming this one sputtering in the US, every data point outside the US indicates it's a thing and I do think this one's going to translate from I've seen it I've seen data that shows that as a has expanded out of China and that's kind of where maybe a year ago we were talking about it largely on Alibaba platform. But now I think it's there's European startups I'm starting to see some categories in the US where this is interesting I followed the collectible category and there's a couple of the hot companies are they do these live streams where they will do. Unboxings so they will they will buy a pack of cards from like the 80s and then they will open them live and and see what's in there and and you know, it's kind of riveting if you're if you're into that and you're like I wonder you know there's a one in 100 chance that this has a Michael Jordan rookie card or something and they pull that the column poles that can be fascinating so there's a lot of. Kind of very specific category activity going there that I think I think a lot of us thought okay Amazon's and do this Amazon is tried and it's been pretty terrible but I think it's going to come from these really niche of Articles at first and they're going to figure it out and then you'll see it get more more momentum up into the broader retailers so those are those are my three. Jason: [35:27] Wow those are three good ones I feel like you stole my three I'm just kidding um no but I totally agree with all those I do think like we've actually seen Amazon launch some. Selling of shipping services and I've seen Stan said they're going to deliver 90% of their own packages this holiday so like I think that definitely is a thing even Walmart is now, selling shipping services to other people including Home Depot so that's totally interesting Trend hundred percent agree on the live streaming like I kind of call it the D bundling of shopping and you know we have all these e-commerce sites that are good at buying things but we're not very good at product Discovery and it seems like social and video or where a lot of the, the new product discoveries coming from and then that that ultra-fast delivery for filling orders to give you all the words you are asking about the that that's a huge thing and if you think about you know how much retailers are struggling with with grocery profitability like it's a double whammy that wow they're trying to figure out how to solve for profitability the consumers moving to this even you know inherently less profitable order so it's going to be that that's going to be an interesting disruption of the industry so if I were to add 3 to that. I do think just the whole pandemic. [36:41] Acceleration of great digital grocery like is when I talk about a lot and I still think that that is a huge thing like all those predictions about how much the pandemic was accelerating e-commerce for probably wrong but grocery delivery Ecommerce probably did get accelerated five years and to me maybe you know what will ultimately end up being one of the most important things that happened during the pandemic is Amazon invented a new grocery store right this Amazon Fresh concept and it's starting to scale there's more than 30 of them now they have just walk out technology in them which I would have bet against them having this quickly and there are there are lots of investigative journalists that have found. Some interesting real estate footprints that would imply that it's going to scale their that there's a business plan footing out here that had like 300 of these in the UK which is a small island um I think we could look back five years from now and see Amazon is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar grocer and and I think 20:21 is the year it it happened without us totally acknowledging it so I think Jay W groceries an interesting Evolution one that I end up talking about a lot with my clients also driven by Amazon is retail media networks right so you know Amazon, is that a run right now of about 30 billion dollars in ads it's probably the most profitable business Amazon has I think this this. [38:08] Battle for eyeballs between retailers and traditional digital platforms is super interesting and I think you know you set the layer who is. One of the the. The key guys at Amazon media like we had him on the show when he moved to Fresh Direct and he's now running Walmart Connect Four for Walmart so you're seeing the Retailer's hire these like credible media sales people and I think that's a. [38:37] A going forward a significant part of every retailers plan is how to be their own media Network how to get eyeballs and how to monetize those eyeballs and that's a new new skill for a retailer so I think that's a big deal and then the last one I'm gonna throw out, is one that I am surprised doesn't get talked about more but it's the apparel retailer she in and I think they are super interesting they've had phenomenal success they're probably globally the largest apparel reseller on the planet right now and their their annual revenues are more than than H&M and Zara combined so so remarkable. [39:18] Story of fast acceleration but the bigger story here is, to me Sheehan is very representative of the democratization of apparel that like for the longest time we expected Mickey Drexler or Versace or Yeezy to tell us like what was cool to wear and then we waited until we can buy those clothes and we bought them and I just I think that model is totally dead now I think the apparel that sells best the stuff that she and sells the stuff that target cells the stuff that Stitch fix cells is frankly based on customer data it's watching customers finding out what they like and then making it really fast and so Sheehan isn't isn't fashion driven by a stylist It's Fashion driven by Tick-Tock right and an Instagram and I think that's a, a lot of apparel companies haven't gotten the memo yet that the consumer is now squarely in charge of these fashion trends. Scot: [40:18] Yeah saw an article about these guys were this this one lady she did this Argyle Sweater outfit and. It was on Instagram it got some viral love they took that and it created a hole the outfit they had copied it or I guess fast fashion and I don't know how the how the IP Works in this world but they had replicated it and they I think they even used her picture which I think was with articles about that she didn't really you know, realize that that effectively shows open sourcing this thing to the world and then it became a top seller for them like in 60 days it was insane how fast that they identified the trend and get the. The product out there it was like you know NASCAR fashion or something. Jason: [41:03] Yeah it's crazy if you think about like the fashion traditionally worked like. Dudes would show up in Paris at the Fashion Show and show these cool Styles and then everyone would steal those Styles and send them an effector he's and two years later those fact those Fashions would be available at Neiman Marcus. Two years later and in so the genius of Gap was that they got those Fashions to the mall, 18 months later instead of two years later and the the disruption of H&M and Zara was that they got them to the mall six months later instead of 18 months later right. She and sees that woman in the crop-top Argyle Sweater and they have they have that fashion available in a week and here's what super interesting they don't make a million of them and hope they sell which is what all those other retailers had to do, they make 12 of them and if those 12 sell in 8 seconds versus 20 seconds then they make thousands of them. Right and so it's really data-driven real-time a/b testing on apparel trans at a speed that that these kind of traditional apparel Brands can't even imagine. Scot: [42:13] That's because they have the factory right there that they're able to do that or like to have some. Jason: [42:17] Yeah and they. In Shane's case they don't own the factories they have a net like that it's a gig worker economy for factories right like so in the same way that boober recruits a bunch of Uber drivers she and recruits a bunch of factories that they then go to and say hey we've got some some ideas for some new models and find one of those factories that accepts the order and makes the the stuff and so in sometimes there's our Factory driven ideas sometimes there she and driven ideas but but yeah that's that's the model and you know there is a Dark Side to this I got you know a lot of its there's a lot of questions about the labor standards and practices at a bunch of these factories and of course there's. You know a lot of the stuff that gets bought on Shion is super cheap and gets worn once and so it's a ecological disaster I would argue the industry it's disrupting is also. Kind of a you know it has a lot of dark sides and and is not very sustainable so I like I'm not sure she and improves on on any of those problems but from a pure consumer demand standpoint, I don't think we're ever going back to you know these like anointed tastemakers that like decide what we're all going to wear for the next year. Scot: [43:32] Yet clearly clearly that model is sailed having. Jason: [43:36] Indeed well listen Scott I know we both have to run but that is probably a great place to wrap up our final show of 20:21 I need to take some downtime not to see my family or anything like that but in early January we always like to record the forecasts show and hit traditionally you crush me and so I feel like I need to spend a lot more time thinking about my forecast before the forecast show comes up. Scot: [44:07] Yeah challenge accepted I will also be thinking about this in a background processes I'm enjoying the holiday I think this is a good time to thank our listeners you know we've you know we've seen our listenership grow pretty steadily over the years and we really appreciate everyone giving us time to your day to talk about the topics we talk about and we get a lot of great feedback and really engaged set of listeners and we really appreciate you listening and if you want to share your appreciation one of the ways you can do that is through a five star rating so fire up your favorite podcast listening technology and if you would leave us a five starters we that would be the perfect holiday gift for us. Jason: [44:47] Yeah that's exact five stars is exactly my size to Scott. Scot: [44:50] How about that. Jason: [44:53] Awesome well most of can't appreciate enough the listeners for spending this time with us every week this is a lot of fun for us to do and I learned so much from the the chats I have with folks after they listen to the podcast so I'm that is one of the things I'm super grateful for. Scot: [45:10] Everyone have a great holiday Jason you how enjoy your trip to California. Jason: [45:14] Thank you you have a wonderful holiday as well and until next time happy commercing!
This week, Landon and Jeremiah discuss the signing of Ethan Finlay, as well as a few other player moves and rumors. They also talk to Roma Desai, the Austin FC fan who attended every single game, home and away. Topics and questions include:- Slovenian Santas- Ethan Finlay profile- Stroud returns on new contract- Leo Väisänen rumor and profile- Slightly less likely Jhojan Valencia rumor- Continued International slot confusion- Gaines gone in Expansion Draft- Sweat signs with SKC- Interview with Roma (32:35)- 2022 Schedule released (51:58)- MoreYou can find more detailed show notes at The Striker Texas. Remember to rate, review, and subscribe to the show at moontowersoccer.com or via your favorite podcasting app.This episode is brought to you by FVF Law
Walker Mehl goes through the times Panther Coach Matt Rhule criticized Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, etc. 0:00 – Cam shouldn’t have thrown the football on 4th and 1 2:20 – Slightly walks back comment 5:53 – Matt Rhule’s Read More
On Episode 11 of the Stroke Alert Podcast, host Dr. Negar Asdaghi highlights two articles from the December 2021 issue of Stroke: “Baseline Cognitive Impairment in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis in the CREST-2 Trial” and “Serious Adverse Events and Their Impact on Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke in the WAKE-UP Trial.” She also interviews Dr. Mark Parsons about his article “Stroke Patients With Faster Core Growth Have Greater Benefit From Endovascular Therapy.” Dr. Negar Asdaghi: 1) Can the presence of a high-grade asymptomatic carotid stenosis result in development of early dementia? 2) Have you ever wondered if a random poststroke urinary tract infection or hospital-acquired pneumonia can impact the 90-day poststroke outcome? 3) When it comes to the beneficial effect of endovascular thrombectomy, what is the concept of late window paradox, and why do we need to know about this and its relation with the speed of infarct growth? These are the questions that we will tackle in our December podcast. We're covering the best in Stroke. Stay with us. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Welcome back to the Stroke Alert Podcast. My name is Negar Asdaghi. I'm an Associate Professor of Neurology at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and your host for the monthly Stroke Alert Podcast. For the December 2021 issue of Stroke, we have a large selection of topics, from whether adjusting antiplatelet therapies after stenting for intercranial aneurysms can potentially reduce ischemic events, to studying the outcomes of patients with reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome and analysis from a nationwide study in the United States, which I encourage you to review in addition to listening to our podcast today. Later in the podcast, I have the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Mark Parsons, from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, on his work suggesting that the beneficial effect of endovascular thrombectomy may be modified based on the speed of infarct growth, from the time of symptom onset to the time when the patient is being considered for reperfusion therapies. But first with these two articles. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: It has been suggested that the presence of chronic high-grade carotid stenosis can result in early cognitive decline, even in the absence of ischemic stroke secondary to the carotid disease. Multiple mechanisms for this decline have been proposed, including an alteration of cerebrovascular reactivity and ipsilateral hemispheric hypoperfusion. Now, if this is true, then asymptomatic patients harboring a high-grade carotid stenosis would have a lower cognitive status than their age and risk factor in matched counterparts. And this is the exact topic that Dr. Ronald Lazar from the Department of Neurology at the University of Alabama and colleagues studied in this issue of the journal, in their article titled “Baseline Cognitive Impairment in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis in the CREST-2 Trial.” Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Now, a very quick recap of the CREST-2 Trial. You will recall that CREST-2 is an ongoing randomized trial of patients over 35 years of age with asymptomatic carotid disease of equal or greater than 70%. Asymptomatic is defined as absence of ipsilateral stroke or TIA symptoms within 180 days prior to randomization. Also, a reminder, that to be able to be enrolled in the CREST-2 Trial, patients had to be independent, with no diagnosis of dementia, and they were then randomized to either intensive medical management versus carotid artery stenting, or intensive medical management alone versus carotid endarterectomy. It's important to keep in mind that a secondary outcome of CREST-2 is to see whether carotid intervention over intensive medical management is better in reducing cognitive decline over time in this patient population. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Obviously, we'll have these results after the completion of the CREST-2 trial and its follow-up completion, but in the current study, the authors were interested to compare the baseline cognitive function of the CREST-2 candidates, and they were able to compare this baseline cognitive status to participants of the REGARDS population-based study. Now, the acronym for REGARDS stands for "Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke." This was a population-based study in the United States that included over 30,000 community-dwelling White and Black adults over the age of 45. So, think about the REGARDS cohort as the stroke-free participants without the high-grade carotid stenosis. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, to match the two populations, the authors included only CREST-2 participants that were older than 45 years of age and did not have any prior strokes. So, that gave them a sample size of 786 patients for the current analysis with a complete neurocognitive battery of four tests administered over the phone, in the same order in both studies. So, let's go over these cognitive tests. The test included the Word List Learning Sum, assessing the cognitive domain of learning; the Word List Recall, which is a test of memory; and the two tests for executive function, Word Fluency for animal names and fluency for the single letter 'F'; and a brief screen for depression. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, simply put, we have four cognitive tests assessing the three cognitive domains of learning, memory, and executive function. And depending on how the person did on each test, it gave the investigators Z scores for each participant in each category and then they compiled the Z scores in a percentile tabulation for the CREST-2 population and compared these percentiles to the normative data obtained for the REGARDS population. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, what they found was that, well, not surprisingly, the population of CREST-2 had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, things like hypertension, elevated lipids, smoking and diabetes. Slightly more than half, exactly 52% of the CREST-2 patients, had a target carotid stenosis vessel on the right side. And then they did some complex statistical models, adjusting for age, race and educational level, and then further adjusting for some vascular risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and smoking, for each cognitive test, and they found that the overall Z score for patients in CREST-2 was significantly below expected for higher percentiles and marginally below expected for the 25th percentile for all four cognitive tests, as compared to the normative population. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: For example, if they were expecting that 90% of the CREST-2 population would score in the 75th percentile for a particular test, or at 95th percentile on a different test, these percentages were significantly lower in the CREST-2 candidates. The greatest cognitive differences were detected for Word List Delay, which is a test of memory, followed with the Word List Learning, which is a test for learning. And the results really did not change when they adjusted for the vascular risk factors, and importantly, unchanged when they adjusted for right- or left-sided stenosis of the carotid, which is important, as language plays an important role in assessment of memory function. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, what did we learn from this study? Well, number one, poor cognition is associated with harboring high-grade asymptomatic carotid occlusive disease, an effect that was only modestly attenuated by further adjustment for other risk factors. Number two, patients with high-grade carotid stenosis showed a significantly lower cognitive performance in the learning and memory domains. This profile of cognitive decline is different than what was typically expected to be seen in the case of vascular dementia, where abnormalities are predominately seen in the test of executive function. Number three, though we don't know the precise mechanism for cognitive impairment in the setting of carotid stenosis, cerebral hypoperfusion seemed to be the leading plausible cause as hippocampus and amygdala are known to be susceptible to hypoperfusion, and the findings of the current study show that the predominant impairment seen in patients with carotid disease seemed to be involving memory and learning. So, really important findings, and lots to still learn on this topic. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: The occurrence of adverse events during acute treatment and within the first few weeks of acute ischemic stroke are common and can negatively influence the course and clinical outcomes of stroke patients. Serious adverse events, or SAEs, are defined as life-threatening events resulting in death or requiring hospitalization, prolongation of hospitalization, or resulting in significant disability, and they can be either neurological, such as recurrent ischemic events, hemorrhagic complications, seizure disorders, but also can include a myriad of systemic complications, including, but not limited to, occurrence of deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary emboli, cardiac arrhythmias, various infections, GI bleeds, to name a few. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: In a setting of a clinical trial, patients are regularly and systematically monitored for SAEs, and from these studies we know that, indeed, both adverse events, or AEs, and SAEs are quite common poststroke and are reported in up to 95% of participants of prior randomized trials. Intravenous thrombolysis increased the risk of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, but in general, the rate of SAEs are similar in thrombolyzed and non-thrombolyzed patients. Which clinical characteristics prone stroke patients to what type of side effects is, of course, an intriguing subject for a stroke neurologist. Similarly, it's important to know how, for example, a seemingly indirect complication of ischemic stroke, such as a hospital-acquired urinary tract infection, can potentially affect the stroke outcomes. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, in this issue of the journal, Dr. Iris Lettow from University Medical Center in Hamburg, Germany, and colleagues looked at the subject in the paper titled “Serious Adverse Events and Their Impact on Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke in the WAKE-UP Trial.” This was a post-hoc analysis of the WAKE-UP Trial, which was a multicenter randomized trial of MR-guided intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase in ischemic stroke patients with unknown time of onset. The WAKE-UP Trial included 503 patients, and they had 199 SAEs reported for 110 patients, meaning that one in five patients had at least one serious adverse event in the trial. Of those patients who did suffer an SAE, 20 patients, which was 10%, had a fatal outcome. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: The rate of SAEs were not different between thrombolyzed and non-thrombolyzed patients. But, when they categorized the patients based on who did and who did not experience an SAE, they found that those who experienced an SAE were older, presented with more severe strokes, and were more likely to have a large vessel occlusion. But only higher age and male sex were independent predictors of development of an SAE poststroke. So, let's pause and think about these findings. This was in contrast to the previous studies, where traditionally, the severity of stroke was a predictor of complications, and importantly, the first study to identify male sex as an independent predictor of SAE, whereas, traditionally, female sex had been identified as a risk factor for development of adverse events poststroke. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Perhaps what we're seeing with a paradigm shift in improvement in poststroke quality of care. Now, another important finding of this study was that the presence of any SAE, whether neurological or non-neurological, resulted in reduction of favorable outcome by half and almost quadrupled the odds of poor outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale of four to six at 90 days, even after accounting for all the known confounders. Now, the authors also looked at some interesting details. The organ most effected by serious adverse events poststroke was indeed the nervous system. Almost 50% of all SAEs were neurological in nature. This was then followed by cardiac events. Some examples would include an acute coronary syndrome, MI, various arrhythmias. And the surgical and medical procedures were the third most common category of serious adverse events in this study. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: And what they found was that SAEs by organ of involvement had a significant association with 90-day outcomes, where any neurological serious adverse events significantly affected 90-day functional outcome poststroke. When adjusting and accounting for important variables, such as age, sex, LVO, this still remained true in terms of a predictor of outcome. In contrast, cardiac serious adverse events, infectious serious adverse events, did not have any effect on the 90-day functional outcome. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, what are the top takeaway messages from this study? Number one, SAEs occur commonly poststroke, and in this particular study, occurred in one in five ischemic stroke patients. Number two, 10% of those who suffer from an SAE had a fatal outcome. Number three, nervous system disorders and cardiac disorders were the most frequent classes of side effects poststroke. And finally, patients suffering from at least one serious adverse event had a lower odds of reaching favorable outcome at 90 days. These findings emphasize the importance of dedicated stroke care, neurointensive care units, and all poststroke efforts to reduce preventable adverse events poststroke. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Time is an exceedingly important concept in treatment of patients with acute ischemic stroke. As an example, in a typical stroke related to a proximal large vessel occlusion, the ischemic brain loses an average of two million neurons per minute. Now, endovascular therapy is the standard reperfusion treatment for patients with acute ischemic stroke secondary to a large vessel occlusion. It is an effective treatment to restore blood flow and reperfusion to the brain and had been shown to improve outcomes in stroke patients. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Therefore, one would naturally anticipate that the benefits of endovascular therapy would be dramatically reduced with treatment so late. If this is true, then why is it that the beneficial treatment effect from endovascular therapy was even larger in patients treated in the late time window trials, and you will recall that these were patients included from 6 to 16 hours, or 6 to 24 hours, from their symptom onset time. This compared to treatment effects noted in patients enrolled in the early time window trials. This concept is known as the "late window paradox" and does not mean that we have to wait to provide reperfusion therapies to patients. It actually refers to those fortunate few that have robust collaterals and, as a result, have slow infarct growth, which will afford them that extra precious time to remain eligible to receive this life-saving treatment. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Joining me now on the podcast is Dr. Mark Parsons from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, to talk to us about the concept of infarct growth. Dr. Parsons is one of the senior authors of the study published in the current issue of the journal titled “Stroke Patients With Faster Core Growth Have Greater Benefit From Endovascular Therapy,” and will discuss how the beneficial effect of endovascular treatment may be modified by the speed of infarct growth in the early time window after symptom onset. As in every podcast, when I have the pleasure of interviewing a pioneer in the field of stroke, that my guest needs no introduction, but truly Dr. Parsons needs no introduction to our listeners. He's a Professor of Neurology at the University of New South Wales in southwestern Sydney. He's an internationally recognized leader in the field of stroke, stroke clinical trials, and brain imaging whose research has helped improve patient selection for acute stroke reperfusion therapies. It's truly an honor to have him on the podcast today. Welcome, Mark. Thank you so much for joining us all the way in Sydney on a Saturday morning. Dr. Mark Parsons: Yes, thank you, Negar. It's OK, I have been up for a little while. So, yes, lovely to chat with you, and we haven't chatted in person for quite a long time, and I think I actually remember the last time was in Hamburg, in Germany, at a big stroke conference. I remember it quite well. We had a very pleasant evening with a group of Canadians and Australians, and I had to present a major tenecteplase study finding the next day, and I was a little bit off my game, some of my friends said, and I think that's probably your fault, Negar. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Mark, you did really great, and we really, truly, look forward to getting back to in-person meetings. So, let's start with the study here. Can you please tell us about the INSPIRE registry? Dr. Mark Parsons: So, the INSPIRE registry, that's an acronym. So, it's best to spell out this acronym, so that stands for the "International Stroke Perfusion Imaging Registry." So, that was something we set up quite a while ago when perfusion CT was quite considered advanced or novel. We set that up, I think, in about 2010, and because that was obviously one of my areas of interest, perfusion imaging, we started collecting perfusion CT and CT angiography , and noncontract CT, for that matter, from our stroke patients from a number of centers in several countries. And over time, that built up to over 20 centers around the world, so predominantly Australia and China, because of the close connections that we've got there, but also one site in Canada, actually two sites now. We have so many sites that I sometimes overlook a few. Dr. Mark Parsons: So, it is international. And what we do is, we collect prospective data from stroke patients, both clinical and their acute imaging, follow-up imaging, follow-up clinical information, and in the majority of patients, we also get three-month Rankin. So, there's now over 3,000 patients in that database with complete datasets from acute baseline imaging through to three months. And that was the dataset that we used for this current study. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, Mark, this is truly an impressive registry. It is not easy to do large-scale imaging-based registries, and this is really impressive to have so many centers involved. Can you tell us about the current study population? Who did you include in the current study paper? Dr. Mark Parsons: Firstly, we specifically looked at patients that had a large vessel occlusion, or LVO. Of course, the definition of large vessel occlusion varies a bit from place to place, but essentially, that means a clot in a proximal artery to the brain that's potentially retrievable via endovascular thrombectomy. I guess the beauty of the INSPIRE registry is, we started collecting stroke patient data well before endovascular thrombectomy was a routine treatment. We had quite a large number of large vessel occlusion patients in this study who didn't receive endovascular thrombectomy because it simply wasn't available at the time. And then, of course, with all of those big trials that came out in 2015, as you know, and beyond, with thrombectomy becoming routine at all of our INSPIRE sites and many other places around the world, we then had a, I guess, a historical cohort comparison of large vessel occlusion patients that were not given EVT and then, more recently, a cohort of large vessel occlusion patients who were treated with thrombectomy. Dr. Mark Parsons: The non-thrombectomy patients, in the vast majority, received intravenous thrombolysis because they were in the 4.5-hour time window. I guess the only other thing, the main other inclusion criteria, was we specified that patients in this particular study needed to have a relatively small infarct core, less than 70 mL, and we can talk more about that later, if you like, and a significant area of tissue that's potentially salvageable with reperfusion, the so-called penumbra. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Thank you. Just to recap for our listeners, so your current study population included patients presenting early on, within 4.5 hours from symptom onset, with a large vessel occlusion, and because, as you mentioned, the study had been ongoing even before endovascular therapy became a standard of care, you have a group of patients in whom endovascular therapy was offered and you have the comparison to this group to those patients who had an LVO, large vessel occlusion, but simply received intravenous thrombolysis only. Can you now tell us about these two groups, basically, IV thrombolysis versus endovascular therapy group. What were the differences between the two groups, and what were the main clinical outcomes in your study? Dr. Mark Parsons: Yes. We had about 400 patients in each arm. And though reasonably well matched, I mean, of course, registry, it's not randomized, so you can't have perfectly matched groups, and indeed, in the more recent era where most patients with large vessel occlusion, particularly with this small core, big penumbra on imaging, would go to thrombectomy because they had the so-called ideal target population. So, in the modern era, if patients don't receive EVT, then there's probably a good reason for that. But, essentially, they are around 70 years of age. Their NIH Stroke score was around 15, or the median score, so that's reasonably consistent with large vessel occlusion. And then if you look at the perfusion imaging, so this was all with perfusion CT in our studies, so the core volume was quite small, 15 mL, but there was quite a large range. And the median penumbra volume was actually a bit bigger in the EVT group; it was 80 versus 65 in the penumbral group. Dr. Mark Parsons: We probably don't need to go into the details of how those core penumbral volumes are calculated, but that might be a bit over-technical for our audience, but happy to elucidate further if you want. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Actually, I think it's important to, just briefly, talk about how those values were measured. Dr. Mark Parsons: Yes, OK. The other thing I should say is that, interestingly enough, we specified the 4.5-hour time window, but in fact, the median time from stroke onset to imaging was just under two hours in both groups, which is quite short. Dr. Mark Parsons: And indeed, some of the people that are less enthusiastic about perfusion CT than I am would say, "Well, maybe measures of core are not so reliable in that early time window with perfusion CT." I would probably debate that to some degree. But, if we talked to the technicalities, there's quite a lot of data to suggest that the cerebral blood flow threshold is probably the most robust for identifying core, or at least tissue that's destined to infarct. It may not actually be infarcted at the time we measure it, particularly at two hours, but there's quite a lot of data now showing that with perfusion CT with a cerebral blood flow threshold of 30%, depending on software variations, that's a pretty accurate estimate of the final infarct in people that have rapid reperfusion fairly quickly after the perfusion CT. Dr. Mark Parsons: So, all of these figures that we use are based on, for example, the core threshold on perfusion CT relates to, we validate that from patients, particularly that have had thrombectomy, so we know when they've reperfused. And the theory should be that if the CT perfusion core is an accurate measure of the final infarct, that there should not be much change from the baseline CT perfusion core to the follow-up infarct because there's been reperfusion not long after the perfusion scan. Now, with the penumbral volume, we use software that measures a delay time. Other software, particularly in North America, you would use a Tmax, but they're both basically direct measures of collateral flow. Dr. Mark Parsons: So, as you know, when you have a large vessel occlusion, say, of a middle cerebral artery and in one segment, the way that blood gets to the cortex, it's typically supplied from the middle cerebral, is via retrograde flow from the anterior cerebral and the posterior cerebral via leptomeningeal collateral, so you actually get blood coming back retrograde bypassing the occlusion. And these measures on perfusion CT delay time in Tmax, actually, give you a measurement in seconds of how long it takes the blood to travel to that part of the brain. And, obviously, the longer the delay in seconds means the poorer the collateral flow. And then, typically, that means the poorer the collaterals, the less time you've got to salvage the penumbra, and the quicker the infarct core will expand. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Right. So, in your study, using these perfusion parameters. First, before even we come to the perfusion parameters, you found that overall, when you adjusted for all confounders, endovascular-treated patients had a better, or higher, odds of achieving good 90-day outcomes. This was not a surprising finding when you compare this population of endovascularly-treated patients to those treated with intravenous thrombolysis alone. But what was interesting was, indeed, those analyses related to infarct growth rate. Can you tell us a little bit about this concept of infarct growth rate, and you already mentioned how you measured infarct growth by perfusion imaging. Dr. Mark Parsons: Thanks, Negar. I guess that's the novel part in it. I guess it would have been quite surprising if we didn't show that EVT was superior to IVT in the early time window. So, that certainly wasn't unexpected, that finding. But I guess the novel part of this study is this relatively new concept of infarct core growth rate. I'm not saying we're the first that's described it because, as you know, there are a number of papers in the literature and talking about the concept of slow infarct core growers versus fast infarct core growers. And you mentioned the late time window thrombectomy studies, DAWN and DEFUSE 3, which actually showed a dramatic benefit in the later time window, up to 24 hours after stroke, in patients who had evidence of perfusion core mismatch. And the concept then was suggested that the reason that these people benefited so much in that late time window was that they had very slow infarct core growth because they had great collaterals. Dr. Mark Parsons: The treatment effect was bigger in those late time window studies than it was in the early time window thrombectomy studies, which was hypothesized might have included a lot of patients with fast infarct core growth rate, which wasn't really measured in a number of the thrombectomy studies in the early time window. We wanted to look more at, does the rate of infarct core growth have an influence on the effective treatment, with both IV and endovascular treatment? Dr. Mark Parsons: So, the way we measured infarct core growth was pretty simple, actually. It's basically, we excluded patients with uncertain time of stroke onset because we had more than double this total number of LVO stroke patients with target mismatch, but we had to exclude the patients with uncertain time of onset, which included wake-up stroke and others. So, in this group, where there was a defined time of onset, basically, the infarct core growth rate was simply measured from the volume of the infarct core measured on perfusion CT divided by the time from stroke onset. So, just simplistically, if you've got a core of 50 mL, and it's two hours after stroke onset, then the infarct core growth rate is 25 mL per hour. That's simple, but that obviously assumes a linear core growth rate. And we based that linear model on previous studies of repeated diffusion MR imaging, which is another measure of core, that showed that the core growth rate was linear. Dr. Mark Parsons: Now, of course, you could criticize that because I suspect, in some patients, the core growth rate is not linear. This is an estimate of core growth rate. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Right. So, your study actually found something quite interesting, which I really want you to go over for us and for our listeners, and that's that the beneficial effect of endovascular therapy is superior in those with a fast infarct growth rate, and was not superior, in fact not any different, in those patients who had a slow infarct growth rate. Can you walk us through that, and also tell us how that does not contradict what we've found as part of DAWN and DEFUSE with the slow infarct growers? Dr. Mark Parsons: Thanks, Negar. It is slightly complicated, so we'll go one step at a time. So, first of all, the core growth rate varied quite a bit in this population. A number of patients, and this is because you saw that the median core in this group was 15 mL, so there was quite a large population of patients that had a core growth rate of less than 15 mL per hour. So, they're your traditional slow growers, slow core growers, who have really great collateral flow. You probably have a number of hours to save the penumbra. Now, I'm not saying that you should waste time in this group of patients, but it might be particularly relevant, for example, if you're transferring from a primary stroke center to a comprehensive stroke center. You know that you're going to have time to save that penumbra because the infarct core is going to grow slowly. Dr. Mark Parsons: In, for example, in Australia, at least half of our thrombectomy patients come from regional or out of metro centers, where there is a significant transfer time from the primary stroke center to the comprehensive center. So, that may be a particularly important finding to look at in the future for longer transfer times from primary to comprehensive stroke centers. So, then, at the other end of the scale, we had a proportion of patients who had what we call a fast core growth rate of more than 25 mL per hour. And then there were people in the middle between 15 and 25 who we called sort of moderate core growth. So greater than 25 mL per hour was a fast core growth. Dr. Mark Parsons: We categorized it into those sort of three categories. Again, that's a bit arbitrary, but the reason we did that was that if you look at the IVT group alone, those who had slow core growth rate, less than 15 mL per hour, their rates of good outcome, so a Rankin 0 to 2, so getting back to close to normal function at three months, their rates of a good outcome were almost 60% in the slow core growth rate with IVT. Then, if you go to the other end of the scale with fast core growth with intravenous therapy, the rates of good outcome in that group were only 30%. So, there was a clear decline in terms of three-month good outcomes with intravenous thrombolysis versus core growth rate. So, as the core growth rate increased, the chances of good outcome with intravenous thrombolysis decreased. Dr. Mark Parsons: Then, if you looked at the EVT group, it was quite interesting that this core growth rate effect had minimal impact on the outcome of the EVT patients. So, in the EVT patients with slow core growth rate, less than 15 mL, the rates of good outcome at three months were, again, close to 60% and identical to the IV therapy group. But, at the other end of the scale, with fast core growth rate above 25 mL with the EVT group, they had a much higher rate of good outcome compared to the IVT group. Their rates of good outcome were around 45%. So, they are a little bit lower than the slow core growers with EVT, but there wasn't much drop-off with core growth rate, and there was a significant increase in good outcomes in the EVT group who had fast core growth compared to the IVT group. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, I just want to summarize this so that I understand it and, of course, want to make sure that it's simplified also for our listeners. So, you found that those people, and it should be noted these are all within the first 4.5 hours. Dr. Mark Parsons: Yes. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, we understood in that time frame. Those people who had a fast growth rate, they had the greatest benefit from endovascular therapy in this time frame. And those people who had the slow growth rate, that is defined in your study as less than 15 cc per hour, they actually had a similar benefit from endovascular therapy as they did with intravenous thrombolysis. Did I summarize that? Dr. Mark Parsons: Yes. That's correct. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, Mark, how do you explain this from a pathophysiological standpoint? Dr. Mark Parsons: Fortunately, there's a relatively simple explanation. So, because of the way that we set up INSPIRE, we collected follow-up infarct volumes as well. From the time window for follow-up infarct measurement was a little bit variable, but it was around 48 hours after stroke onset. In this group of patients, we actually were able to measure final infarct volume and essentially, in the slow core group, so less than 15 cc growth per hour, in that group, with both IVT and EVT, there was minimal infarct growth by the time we measured it at 48 hours. So, both therapies basically led to minimal infarct growth after the treatment, whereas in the fast core growth group, more than 25 cc per hour, the IVT group had much greater infarct growth by 48 hours, about 40 or 50 mL more, on average, than the EVT group. Dr. Mark Parsons: I guess also, to explain that a touch more, if you look at the slow core growth EVT group versus the fast core growth EVT group, there was still more infarct growth in the fast core growth rate. And this is because you measure the core at a certain time on the CT or the MR. And then, even with the very best system, you're not going to get reperfusion with EVT for at least 30 minutes after that because you have got to get into the angio lab, you have to puncture the groin, and you have got to get up there, and you have got to pull the clot. So, even if you get complete perfect circumstances, it's still usually at least a 30- to 60-minute delay between the perfusion CT and when you're fully reperfused. Dr. Mark Parsons: But the theory should be, if there's a minimal delay from the perfusion CT to reperfusion, the core at that time should be identical to the follow-up, final infarct volume. And that's what we actually found in the slow core group. It was almost the same. The interesting thing was, it was the same in both IVT and EVT, which basically, we don't know for sure, because we don't know exactly when the IVT group reperfused, but it probably means that because the core growth is so slow in this group, even if you reperfuse later with IV therapy, which we know is the case, often with IV thrombolysis the recanalization is a bit slower than with EVT, so even if you've got delayed reperfusion, if you've got slow core growth rate, you may not get much infarct expansion at all, whereas if you've got fast core growth rate, getting reperfusion as quickly as possible after your CT is crucial to limit subsequent infarct growth before reperfusion. And that's exactly what we found in the fast core growers, that EVT substantially limited that subsequent infarct growth and led to better clinical outcomes as well. Sorry, again, that was a long explanation. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Mark, but these are really important findings, and as you alluded to earlier, I believe that they have major implications in how the systems of care are organized and our transfers are going to be decided upon in the future. We have a few minutes before we end the podcast here, and I want to ask you, do you think it's fair to have a similar concept that's studying the infarct growth rate in the late time window, especially in the sort of past 12 hours time window in the future? Dr. Mark Parsons: Yeah, it's a fascinating question, Negar. In fact, we do have a paper somewhere under review. I think Stroke might have knocked it back. Anyway, but it's actually looking exactly at this concept, but the fascinating thing is, in the late time window, you see very few true fast growers because they actually present early. This is what the paper under review is talking about. So, in fact, most people that you see with a favorable imaging pattern in the late time window, such as DAWN and DEFUSE 3, the core is relatively small. In patients with fast core growth, by the time you get to six hours, you've got a massive core and no penumbra, so they are typically not offered endovascular therapy because there's no salvageable tissue and there's already lots of damage, even on the non-con CT. Dr. Mark Parsons: So, it would be actually really interesting to look just at the late time window, and I'm sure others are doing that, too, but I suspect what we'll find is that the distribution of core growth is pretty narrow. It's mostly the slower core growers, and it's very clear that most of the really fast, and we're actually looking at this now in people with large infarct core over 70 mL, in fact, they present, the ones that we've got at least, present very early. So, it'll be a fascinating area to look at, for sure. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Mark, it is definitely fascinating. We look forward to covering that paper, hopefully in our future podcast. But I want to leave you, reminding you that I'm a mild stroke person, so I am definitely interested in looking at these slow grow rate infarct patients because there are also, as you know, some studies suggesting that the slow growth infarct actually can happen sub-clinically on only a radiographic basis, and especially important in the mild group patients. But, we are out of time. Professor Mark Parsons, thank you so much for joining us all the way from Sydney, and it's been a pleasure interviewing you. Dr. Mark Parsons: Thank you, Negar. Lovely to chat and hope to see you very soon in person. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: Thank you. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: And with that, we end our podcast for the December 2021 issue and close the first year of the Stroke podcast. A year ago, Dr. Ralph Sacco, the Editor-in-Chief of Stroke, approached me to talk about the importance of starting a podcast for Stroke as an accessible means to highlight the great work published in the journal, and also introduce me to the amazing Stroke editorial staff. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: One year, hundreds of reviewed papers, and 11 podcasts later, from missed deadlines to late night emails, early morning texts, and weekend recordings, our podcast has become a bit more than just a quick review of the literature. It has truly become our podcast family. Overcoming the time differences and impossible schedules, you made time to interview with us, listen to us, and work with us as we reached out to researchers across the globe who contributed to this journal and to the podcast. Lots of laughter and a few tears. Like every family, ending the year reminds us of some good times and, of course, the difficult times. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: So, I want to end our final podcast of the year with a topic that we haven't really covered in our journal, but I think may sprinkle some magic on your holiday season, and that's the topic of quantum biology. Wrapped in mysticism with a pseudoscientific flavor, physicists, neurologists, anesthesiologists, and philosophers have been hard at work deciphering whether consciousness may have similar properties to quantum particles. From superposition to entanglement and coherence, is it possible that your mind may have something to do with the epigenetics, up and down regulation of genes and presentation treatment and, importantly, outcome of various medical or neurological disorders? Now, even if this was proved to have a low scientific validity, as a stroke scientist, isn't it amazing to be working in the one field that ensures the brain, which is the home of consciousness, remains healthy? So, let's think about the power of consciousness in altering the outcome of medical conditions with our ever-excitement to stay alert with Stroke Alert. Dr. Negar Asdaghi: This program is copyright of the American Heart Association, 2021. The opinions expressed by speakers in this podcast are their own and not necessarily those of the editors or of the American Heart Association. For more, visit AHAjournals.org.
When biosimilars were introduced into the US, there was much talk about how much money they could potentially save patients. Getting a biosimilar developed and approved by the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) is not as rigorous or time-consuming as for a biologic … which was touted as being more economical. And insurance companies were supposed to pass along savings to consumers. In this episode, Zoe and Conner look at why that hasn't happened to any large degree, and what can be done about it. “I think there's going to be a healthy competition on pricing that we haven't had until now,” says Dr. Simon Helfgott, rheumatologist at Brigham & Women's Hospital in Boston. Among the highlights in this episode: 2:40 – Why the big savings haven't materialized 4:25 – What happens when insurance companies arbitrarily change biosimilar coverage 5:21 – Options available to patients 7:03 – How competition could ultimately help consumers 8:49 – Pharmacy benefit managers, and why they don't benefit patients 11:00 – Rebate contracting, and how it keeps the market share for biosimilars low 12:24 – The good news: Slightly more aggressive pricing structures, and lower costs for some employees Contact Our Hosts: Zoe Rothblatt, Patient Advocate and Community Outreach Manager at GHLF. firstname.lastname@example.org Conner Mertens, Patient Advocate and Community Outreach Manager at GHLF. email@example.com We'd love to hear what you think. Send your comments to BreakingDownBiosimilars@GHLF.org See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
1st installment of Trippin Tuesdays. We will be releasing 2 episodes per week from here on out. Hope y'all can handle the toxicity. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/dale-bosley/support
We discuss the results from the cancer biology reproducibility project, the inevitable comparisons with reproducibility in psychology, and authorship expectations for posting public datasets. Links * The paper (https://elifesciences.org/articles/71601) investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology * The paper (https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/131/635/1250/5824166) on the impact of alphabetical order on career outcomes in economics (whose authorship order are determinedby alphabetical order * That human sports science paper (https://pubpeer.com/publications/28EA24F1ABCFF6CD121B167A9A68BB) that inlcluded a cranionotomy Everything Hertz on social media - Dan on twitter (https://www.twitter.com/dsquintana) - James on twitter (https://www.twitter.com/jamesheathers) - Everything Hertz on twitter (https://www.twitter.com/hertzpodcast) - Everything Hertz on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/everythinghertzpodcast/) Support us on Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/hertzpodcast) and get bonus stuff! $1 per month: A 20% discount on Everything Hertz merchandise, a monthly newsletter, access to the occasional bonus episode, and the the warm feeling you're supporting the show $5 per month or more: All the stuff you get in the one dollar tier PLUS a bonus episode every month Episode citation Quintana, D.S., Heathers, J.A.J. (Hosts). (2021, December 13) "145: Our boat is sinking slightly slower", Everything Hertz [Audio podcast], DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/634QJ
This slightly delayed episode contains the Week 14 preview where we totally predicted the incredible breakout of Dalvin Cook, Sleepers, and the Goldmine Game of the Week. The real sauce for this episode is conversation about the playoff hunt for teams in the three leagues, yes Jacob laughs from his ivory tower in the Empire league, and yes Taylor is still clawing himself into the picture for the Empire League. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/mff2021/message
Michael Feinstein, five-time Grammy nominee & Ambassador of the American Songbook, is Baring It Slightly about the legendary Judy Garland as he celebrates the 100th Birthday year of this iconic actress & singer. Get Happy: Michael Feinstein Celebrates The Judy Garland Centennial will play Feinstein's/54 Below from December 15-26. Click here for tickets! Connect with Michael: Website Facebook Twitter Instagram Connect with Feinstein's 54 Below: Website Facebook Twitter Instagram Like What You Hear? Join my Patreon Family to get backstage perks including advanced notice of interviews, the ability to submit a question to my guests, behind-the-scene videos, and so much more! Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Visit: https://callmeadam.com for more my print/video interviews Special Thanks: My Patreon Family for their continued support: Angelo, Reva and Alan, Marianne, Danielle, Tara, Alex, and The Golden Gays NYC. Join the fun at https://patreon.com/callmeadamnyc. Theme Song by Bobby Cronin (https://bit.ly/2MaADvQ) Podcast Logo by Liam O'Donnell (https://bit.ly/2YNI9CY) Edited by Adam Rothenberg Outro Music Underscore by CueTique (Website: https://bit.ly/31luGmT, Facebook: @CueTique) More on Michael: Michael Feinstein has built a dazzling career over the last three decades bringing the music of the Great American songbook to the world. From recordings that have earned him five Grammy Award nominations to his Emmy nominated PBS-TV specials, his acclaimed NPR series & concerts spanning the globe – in addition to his appearances at iconic venues such as The White House, Buckingham Palace, Hollywood Bowl, Carnegie Hall & Sydney Opera House – his work as an educator & archivist define Feinstein as one of the most important musical forces of our time. In 2007, Michael founded the Great American Songbook Foundation, dedicated to celebrating the art form & preserving it through educational programs, Master Classes & the annual High School Songbook Academy. Michael serves on the Library of Congress' National Recording Preservation Board, an organization dedicated to ensuring the survival, conservation & increased public availability of America's sound recording heritage. Michael serves as Artistic Director of the Palladium Center for the Performing Arts, a $170 million, three-theatre venue in Carmel, Indiana, which opened in January 2011. The theater is home to diverse live programming & a museum for his rare memorabilia & manuscripts. Since 1999, he has served as Artistic Director for Carnegie Hall's Standard Time with Michael Feinstein in conjunction with ASCAP. In 2010 he became the director of the Jazz & Popular Song Series at New York's Jazz at Lincoln Center. Michael has designed a new piano for Steinway called The First Ladies, inspired by the White House piano & signed by several former First Ladies. It was first played to commemorate the Ronald Regan centennial on February 6, 2011. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The TWiP team solves the case of the Man with a Cat and Ring Enhancing Lesions, and discuss domestic mammals as reservoirs for Leishmania donovani on the Indian subcontinent. Hosts: Vincent Racaniello, Dickson Despommier, Daniel Griffin, and Christina Naula Subscribe (free): iTunes, Google Podcasts, RSS, email Links for this episode Reservoirs for Leishmania (Transboundary Emerg Dis) Support MicrobeTV at Parasites Without Borders Letters read on TWiP 201 Become a patron of TWiP Case Study for TWiP 201 Older male, >65, abdominal pain over last several months, getting worse, otherwise feels well. No change in weight. Past medical, surgical unremarkable. Social: grew up in rural inland China. As adult lived in large city. Always active and healthy, eating fish and leafy vegetables. Move to US 10 years before illness. No pets. No toxic habits. HIV negative. Unremarkable exam. Labs: elevated white count, platelets low, not anemic. Differential on white count: neutrophils predominant. Gets belly CT: reveals mass in colon. Colonoscopy done, mass resected. Pathology: shows adenocarcinoma, but also eggs in sample. Slightly ovoid, 80 microns. Send your case diagnosis, questions and comments to firstname.lastname@example.org Music by Ronald Jenkees
All language students speak a first language, but what do we do with it? Some teachers ban it. Some teachers use it to teach English in. Some schools make students sign a pledge never to use it. Penny Ur tells us about what we can do take advantage of students first language, when to avoid it and when even to encourage it.For more podcasts, videos and blogs, visit our website Support the podcast – buy us a coffee!Develop yourself! Find more about our teacher training courses Watch as well as listen on our YouTube channelRoss Thorburn: Hi, Penny. To start off, a lot of teachers ‑‑ I certainly count myself as one of these ‑‑ mix up, as Vivian Cook puts it, "Minimizing L1 in the classroom with maximizing L2 in the classroom."Obviously, those two concepts aren't mutually exclusive. Less first language doesn't necessarily mean more English, does it? Are there any reasons that you think teachers might legitimately want to ban students' first language from their classrooms?Penny Ur: “Ban”, certainly not. One of my slogans [laughs] is “never say never”. In education in general, language teaching in particular, there's nothing I can think of which include no recommendation, which would include the word never or always. There is a place for the L1 in the classroom. The question is what that place is, how to limit it, and what to limit it to.The golden rule perhaps is, as Vivian Cook says, "The aim is to maximize the use of L2." If you're speaking the target language, and you're speaking it all the time and your students aren't understanding it, then they're not learning very much.It makes sense to use the L1 here and there to facilitate understanding so that when you do use the L2, they understand. L2 should only be used comprehensively. If L1 use occasionally can help that comprehension, by all means, use it.A classic example is introducing a new word in a monolingual class. If you know the students' mother tongue, it's so much quicker and easier to explain the meaning of that word by just giving a quick translation than it is by lengthy explanations in the target language at the end of which the students may not understand.The end of which [laughs] very often one of the members of the class shouts out the L1 equivalent anyway. Why did you bother to go round the world trying to avoid it? I'd say there is a place. The main point is to make sure that L2 is used most of the time and that it is used comprehensively.Ross: That's so true, isn't it? Most teachers, and certainly when I come across a word that I don't understand in my second language, what do I do? I translate it. I'm sure that's what most people do.Penny Ur: Most people use bilingual dictionaries. They don't use monolingual dictionaries. If they want to find the meaning of a word in another language, they look up a dictionary that tells them what it is in their language. It's the most sensible and quickest way to do it.Ross: Why then do you think so many teachers ban L1 from their classes or even schools? For example, where I've worked before have signs up saying, "No Chinese." Why do you think there's such an aversion to students' first language being used anywhere in language classrooms?Penny Ur: Partly because it's a slippery slope. For a lot of teachers, once they start using L1, it's so easy to do that they slip into using it much too much. I've observed lessons where the teacher is using the L1 70, 80 percent of the time. There's not much time left for the target language.What we need to get teachers to implement in the classroom is that the target language is the language we want to use most of the time. One of the reasons why teacher‑trainers discourage the use of L1 is because they're afraid teachers are going to overuse it. It is a well‑grounded fear because, as I said, I've seen it happen. It does happen in a lot of situations. That's one reason.Another reason is that in modeling classes where you could use the L1, expatriate teachers coming from the UK or coming the States and teaching, say, in Europe, they simply don't know the students' mother tongue, so they can't use it. They make a virtue of necessity. I can't use your language so I shouldn't be using your language. It's better to use only English.There's another rather insidious message coming across here that English is not only the target language, in the case of teaching English here, which is what we're mostly talking about. English is in some way the superior language, and we should be using it in some way. The students' language is inferior and should be taken out.This is a very dangerous and not legitimate message coming across, particularly in these days when we're teaching students English in order to enable them to become multilingual users of English. In other words, or bilingual at least, where we're not teaching a Spanish speaker to become an English speaker.We're teaching a Spanish speaker to remain a Spanish speaker who also has a good command of English and can use it, where necessary. We're training bilinguals, not imitation native speakers. Bilinguals' repertoire of languages, the first time it functions side by side with the new language, English, and therefore has a place also in the learning of their language.Ross: A student studying English as a second language can never ever become an English‑speaking monolingual, can they? Why try to imitate that?Penny Ur: No. It's a case of knowing where and when it's appropriate to insert a little bit of L1 or to use translation as one of the techniques for testing, or for explaining new vocabularies, as I said before. It's a fairly complex issue but you don't really gain anything by giving blanket instructions, like never use the L1.Ross: For teachers who can speak the same L1 as their students, which I think is probably the majority of English language teachers out there, when might it be useful for them to use that?Penny Ur: Legitimate uses for L1, apart from vocabulary, explaining a grammar point. Very often, you need to do this in L1. Again, I'm talking about monolingual classes whose language you understand and speak yourself. Explaining grammar. Often the grammar that you're explaining, the words you need to know to explain it are far more difficult than the grammar itself.Explaining the difference in present simple and present progressive, for example. It's very, very common tenses and aspects that the language you need to explain the difference is much more difficult. Therefore, it makes sense to do it if you can in the students' L1. That's one place.Another very useful use [laughs] of the L1 is contrastive analysis in order to avoid mistakes. A lot of mistakes that students make come from interference from their mother tongue. If you bring this up to the surface and explain to them, "Look, your mother tongue says it this way, English says it that way, and that's why you're making this mistake," you can help your students avoid mistakes.For example, in Hebrew, which is my other language and the language of my students, after "afraid," they will always say "afraid from" because that's what it says in Hebrew. You have to teach them, "Look, Hebrew says 'afraid from,' English says 'afraid of.'" You've got to make sure you know the difference.Another example, most languages where English uses the present perfect progressive, as in "We've been talking for several minutes," most languages would use the present tense in that context. Most of the languages I know about, anyway.Most languages say, "We are speaking for several minutes." That's what students will tend to do unless they are made aware of the difference. That's another very useful aid using the L1. There are one or two more, but those are the main ones.Ross: What about then for teachers who can't speak the same first language as their students? What can those teachers do? Is there any way that those teachers can somehow make use of their students' L1 in the classroom?Penny Ur: Obviously, the teachers themselves can't because they simply don't know the language. To allow students to write down new words with the L1 equivalent themselves in their vocabulary notebooks or wherever they're noting the new words, to explain to each other if necessary using the L1.Make it clear that the L1 is not an illegal, illegitimate thing to bring into the classroom. If it helps you, use it.Ross: Those are mainly examples of what the teacher can do to use their students' first language or mother tongue to teach. What ways can teachers encourage students, maybe, to use their first language in the class to help with language learning, maybe in activities, or tasks, or elsewhere?Penny Ur: One thing which I found students really enjoy ‑‑ again, we're talking about monolingual classes here where the teacher speaks the students' language ‑‑ is translating. Not translating entire passages because that gets a bit tedious, but for example, translating a sentence.Or looking at the translation of a particular word or phrase within the context of how would you say this word or phrase in your mother tongue? Or the other way around. Here's a sentence in mother tongue, how would you say this in English? Helping them to get to the right answer in English. That's one which students really enjoy, even in a very elementary level.I've done reading comprehension, for example. I've given them a short text to read with a picture. Something fairly short story or something. A little anecdote, a little joke. Then ask them the comprehension questions in their mother tongue and ask them for an answer in their mother tongue.That way, I ensure that firstly, they spend most of their time just doing the reading and not doing the comprehension work, because the comprehension work, they do pretty quickly. Second, it gives me a very, very quick insight into whether they've understood or not. Reading the questions is also reading comprehension.The trouble is that it's also a bit tedious. [laughs] It's boring. Whereas the texts themselves, the little stories are quite interesting to read. What I'm doing is by giving it in mother tongue, I'm letting the students spend most time on the reading, which is interesting and fun, and as little time as possible on the task which show me that they've understood or not.A lot of teachers would not accept this, but that's my justification for doing the questions in mother tongue. That's another activity.The third one, which I would look at again on the level of contrastive analysis is let's look at a couple of translations. Take a word. How would you translate this into your mother tongue? Let's explore the differences.Perhaps, the mother tongue is more informal. The mother tongue one is matched to gender and the English one isn't. All sorts of things which can simply raise student's awareness of meanings of words in the target language.Ross: Finally then, we need to end with some sort of a caveat that we obviously want most of our classes most of the time to be done in English. How can we avoid opening the L1 floodgates and students using too much of their first language in class?Penny Ur: Opening the floodgates is a good metaphor for this. Firstly, the teacher needs to be very disciplined him or herself. If there's, say, an instruction which you want to give, and there's a word in the sentence which they don't understand. Say, "Put the words into columns," and they don't know the word "columns."A tip to the teacher is: don't translate the entire sentence. If the only problematic word there is the word "columns," then say the whole sentence in English and just put in an oral gloss on the word "columns." Keeping to English as much as you can and only translating where it's necessary for comprehension. That's one.Another one, doing oral daunting activities. The place where the floodgates do open, students lapse into L1, is when you ask them to discuss things in groups, and you're not there hovering over them. If they all speak the same L1, if they're doing the discussion task in groups, they're likely to lapse into L1. Teachers find this all over the place.What can you do to stop this? Two main strategies here. One is make the task one which you know they can do using the language at their disposal. It has to be an easy task. Slightly i‑1, as it were in Krashen's terminology. A bit below the normal level that you're doing your reading comprehension in. Easy task you know only demands language which they can use.The second strategy is within the group itself, appointing one language monitor whose job it is to jot down every time anybody says something not in the target language, not in English, or uses the mother tongue.This has an amazing effect on students because if they know that their names are going to be written down every time they use the mother tongue, this is likely to deter them from doing so. It acts as a deterrent.
My wife Michelle and I are big fans of 2 local restaurants owned by Susan Klein - Fit Foodz Cafe in Boca Raton, Florida and Ripe - And Ready to Eat in Delray Beach, Florida - during our meals we have gotten to know Susan's father Dennis Klein - and immediately I knew I had to have Dennis join me for an episode - he is a good hearted man full of humor and has great perspective - I hope you enjoy this conversation! Quick update on the website. We”re Slightly behind on the official publication and re-launch, although we promise the wait will be worth it. We expect the new site will be launched within the week, as we have been updating and playing with ScottEBurgess.com around the clock to bring to you the changes that you all have been asking for, and I'm happy to say that reveal is just around the corner! If you're new to the podcast and YouTube channel, take a moment, and head on over to ScottEBurgess.com and take a minute to watch genuine video testimonials, and determine for yourself, what best in class content and affiliates can do for you, as you move towards your personal wellness goals. If you are in the Boca Raton/Delray Beach area in South Florida, definitely stop in, enjoy a healthy meal and say hi to Dennis at Ripe! Don't forget, you can find all of our 111 episodes at www.ScottEBurgess.com and the follow up conversations are shared in our Facebook community group “The Best & Brightest” From all of us, we thank you for your continued support, we'll see you soon for Episode 112! See you there! Host: Scott E. Burgess Burgess@ScottEBurgess.com Website: https://www.scotteburgess.com/ Youtube Page: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheScottEBurgessShow Rumble Page: https://rumble.com/register/Healthcare360withScottEBurgess/ The Best & Brightest Facebook Group https://www.facebook.com/groups/119577323474710/ Magic Maker: Michelle Burgess Michelle@MichelleFNBurgess.com www.MichelleFNBurgess.com (coming one day soon!) Affiliates: Please support our podcast by purchasing products from our affiliates at https://www.scotteburgess.com/shop Guest Info: Dennis Klein https://fitfoodzcafe.com/ https://ripedelray.com/ Referenced Info: Susan Klein https://fitfoodzcafe.com/about/key-members/ HC360 #108 Maureen Cacioppo with Florida Pure Sea Salt https://www.scotteburgess.com/episodes/108 HC360 #094 Coherent, Structured Analemma Water https://www.scotteburgess.com/episodes/094 HC360 #100 John McDermott https://www.scotteburgess.com/episodes/100 Patch Adams (1998) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0129290/ The Free State of Jones (2016) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1124037/ 1984 by George Orwell https://www.amazon.com/1984-George-Orwell/dp/1443434973 A Bronx Tale (1993) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106489/ Alan Watt Chillstep by Joey Wizdom https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9T-zvQDds5C6UpED8YMTAg Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind (2020) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12108272/ The Biology of Belief by Bruce Lipton, PhD https://www.brucelipton.com/books/biology-of-belief/ Music provided by: IMMEX - Blue Shark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1pmz9IJ1CA Graphic Design by: Waqar Mughal email@example.com Webflow Design Services by: Adrian Gavrilă Hello@adriangavrila.com Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes - not intended as medical advice. It is always the advice of Healthcare360 to consult with a doctor or other health care professional(s) for medical advice. Some of these links go to one of my websites and some are affiliate links where I'll earn a small commission if you make a purchase at no additional cost to you. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/scotteburgess/message
Join Carlos and Matt for this week's programme. In this week's show a Russian firm is trying to sell a broken airliner, an A340 makes a very frosty landing & a UK based airline has a run in with 5 purple balloons.... In the military this week we look at the recent F35 crash & we also have news on Nuclear capable F18's in Germany and we also look at our caption this pic of the week . Don't forget you can get in touch with us all at : WhatsApp +44 757 22 491 66 Email firstname.lastname@example.org or comment in our chatroom on YouTube. Here are the links to the stories we featured this week : British Airways warns it will axe Heathrow flights in dispute over airline charges https://www.walesonline.co.uk/whats-on/travel/british-airways-warns-axe-heathrow-22236476 BBC set to air new aviation series about 'flirty passengers and cabin crews' lifestyles' https://www.list.co.uk/article/131377-bbc-set-to-air-new-aviation-series-about-flirty-passengers-and-cabin-crews-lifestyles/ Slightly damaged': Russian firm puts crashed SSJ100 on sale online https://www.aerotime.aero/29506-slightly-damaged-russian-firm-puts-crashed-ssj100-on-sale For the first time in history, an Airbus A340 plane has landed on Antarctica. https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/first-airbus-a340-plane-antarctica-intl-hnk/index.html Luton Airport to change flight paths in safety move with Stansted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-59413983 Feeling Festive: easyJet Launches £695 Advent Calendar With Flights https://simpleflying.com/easyjet-free-flights-advent-calendar/ Step back in time to Norwich Airport in the 1980s https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/lifestyle/heritage/old-photos-of-norwich-airport-in-the-1980s-8498156 Boeing 737 holiday jet in near-miss with ‘five purple balloons' https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/11/22/boeing-737-holiday-jet-in-near-miss-with-five-purple-balloons/ 12 must-have apps to help you survive the holiday travel season https://thepointsguy.com/news/apps-to-survive-the-holiday-travel-season/ Woman hands vodka shots out to passengers when told she can't take it through security https://cboardinggroup.com/woman-hands-vodka-shots-out-to-passengers-when-told-she-cant-take-it-through-security/ MILITARY British F-35B Crash In The Med Possibly Caused By ‘Rain Cover' Left On During https://theaviationist.com/2021/11/24/f-35b-crash-cover-possible-cause/ U.S. Navy Sending Salvage Ship, Crew To Help Recover Crashed British F-35B https://news.usni.org/2021/11/24/u-s-navy-sending-salvage-ship-crew-to-help-recover-crashed-british-f-35b Germany ‘Approves' Nuclear-Capable F/A 18 Super Hornets, EW Aircraft EA-18G Growlers To Modernize Fleet https://eurasiantimes.com/germany-approves-nuclear-capable-f-a-18-super-hornets-ew-aircraft-ea-18g-growlers-to-modernize-fleet-media/?amp Air Force pilot killed and two others injured during 'mishap involving two trainer aircraft' in Texas following string of fatal military accidents https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10223379/Air-Force-pilot-killed-injured-mishap-involving-two-trainer-aircraft-Texas.html Air Force special operations general visits Japan to gain insight on seaplanes https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2021-11-10/air-force-seaplanes-special-operations-command-japan-3563136.html
Christmas is the most wonderful time of year. It means different things to different people. In this short-form interview, Broadway leading lady, Lisa Howard (It Shoulda Been You, 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, Escape to Margaritaville) is Baring It Slightly about what Christmas means to her, weight loss and so much more! Lisa Howard brings her brand-new holiday show What Christmas Means To Me to Feinstein's/54 Below on Sunday, December 12 at 7pm! Click here for tickets! P.S. Lisa's new holiday album, The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, is available to stream and download! Connect with Lisa: Website Facebook Twitter Instagram Connect with Feinstein's 54 Below: Website Facebook Twitter Instagram Like What You Hear? Join my Patreon Family to get backstage perks including advanced notice of interviews, the ability to submit a question to my guests, behind-the-scene videos, and so much more! Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Visit: https://callmeadam.com for more my print/video interviews Special Thanks: My Patreon Family for their continued support: Angelo, Reva and Alan, Marianne, Danielle, Tara, Alex, and The Golden Gays NYC. Join the fun at https://patreon.com/callmeadamnyc. Theme Song by Bobby Cronin (https://bit.ly/2MaADvQ) Podcast Logo by Liam O'Donnell (https://bit.ly/2YNI9CY) Edited by Adam Rothenberg Outro Music Underscore by CueTique (Website: https://bit.ly/31luGmT, Facebook: @CueTique) More on Lisa: Lisa Howard was last seen on Broadway as "Tammy" in the new musical Escape To Margaritaville. Before that, she was a Drama Desk Nominee for her starring role of "Jenny Steinberg" in the musical comedy It Shoulda Been You directed by David Hyde Pierce. Other Broadway roles include "Diva 1" in Priscilla, Queen Of The Desert, "Missy Hart" in the new musical 9 TO 5, "Head Nurse" in Lincoln Center's revival of South Pacific and "Rona Lisa Peretti" in the 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, for which she won a Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Ensemble Performance. She has toured with the national company of Les Miserables and performed around the country at such prominent regional theaters as St. Louis MUNY, Olney Theater Center, Goodspeed Opera House, Barrington Stage and Kansas City Starlight. In the concert scene, Lisa performed her solo show at Feinstein's/54Below and has made many appearances at the famed Town Hall in NYC as a part of Broadway By The Year & Broadway Unplugged concert series. She has also sung with the Cincinnati Symphony and with Peter Nero and the Philly Pops. Lisa made her feature film debut as "Siobahn" in the Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn Part 2, and can also be seen in the indie psychological thriller, Decay. TV credits include: Ugly Betty, Power, Madame Secretary and The Good Fight. Her solo CD, Songs of Innocence and Experience is available on iTunes. Lisa is a graduate of the Cincinnati College Conservatory of Music. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this very special SBI bonus episode, the crew gets together just before the premiere of Netflix's live-action Cowboy Bebop adaptation to watch the first two episodes and discuss their immediate reactions. This episode contains plenty of spoilers, so be sure to watch both episodes before jumping in. Unless, of course, you need some convincing as to the temperature of these here jazzy space-waters, in which case go ahead and listen right now. Did Netflix finally get one of these things right? Do our two newest Bebop fans like what they are seeing? WHERE IS RADICAL EDWARD?Support your favorite indie podcast in style with an SBI shirt! Follow us on Twitter @SuddenBut! Check out our picks for Shot of the Show on Instagram @suddenbutinevitablepodcast! Follow our Facebook page to join us live and be part of the discussion! Watch us on YouTube! Call us at 508-93-TWIST to share your picks for our weekly segments! Or, you can head on over to twistmyarmpodcast.com/sbi to get everything all in one place!
Okay so at first this was supposed to be an update episode but somewhere during I guess It...became something else? Don't worry, I ain't gettin too deep on this one. It was just unexpected --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/justjivin/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/justjivin/support
Tonya Harris is an award-winning environmental toxin expert and the founder of Slightly Greener, offering busy women simple tips to reduce toxins without turning their family's lifestyle upside-down. As a childhood leukemia survivor and mom of three (ages 17, 19, and 23), Tonya helps parents learn how toxins in the home can affect their family's health. Tonya holds a Master's degree in holistic nutrition, board certification and multiple certificates in the environmental health field. She has been featured in multiple publications and TV shows across the country sharing her expertise in environmental toxins, holistic nutrition and how toxins affect children. And her new book “The Slightly Greener Method” was released by Sourcebooks on August 3rd, 2021. In this episode, Tonya and I chat about... Experience having her first child in college and then launching an e-commerce business The ingredients she eliminated in her house to help her son's attention issues Other ingredients to get rid of in your house to make it “slightly greener” Tips on where and what to start eliminating in your house by using her R.E.A.D. method Her morning and nighttime wellness routine Advice on raising teenagers Follow Tonya at... Website: www.slightlygreener.com Instagram: @slightlygreener Book: The Slightly Greener Method ----- Come join me in my sandbox of life and in this podcast to explore, play and discover something new every single week. Subscribe and tune in weekly because I know you've yelled "Mommy's on a Call" at least once in the last week!!! For show notes, visit www.MommysonaCall.com Stephanie's Website IG: @MommysonaCall // @StephanieUchima
Here we are for episode 484! This time Paul is celebrating his birthday - but it's slightly quieter than he is used to; still he does his best. We plenty of messages, a couple of new tunes by Harry F, some Sutton Park clips from 1994 and a special appearance by podcasting supremo Toppie Smellie. Our next episode, #485 sees us learning a little more about Sniffy Martin's birth mother... It's going to be quite an emotional ride! Please email me at email@example.com if you have any comments - you can even send a sound-file. The music is by Shy Yeti, Harry F and Luca. Special Effects are by Paul C and Soundbible. All content is Copyright Paul Chandler, 2021. Episode 484 was recorded between the 25th September and the 15th November 2021, with Cuthbert's cameos being the last sections to be completed.
When we discovered a Instagram account by a "gentleman" named @mrawwesome (https://www.instagram.com/mrawwesome/), we knew that he would be a interesting guest. Justin Gerard is a removable technician that tells it like it is. Entertaining and slightly offensive, Justin comes on the podcast to talk about getting into the industry, characters that help shape him in the profession, opening his own lab (Colonial Dental Lab (https://colonialdentallaboratories.com/)) with a partner, and starting his Instagram account to share his unique take on dental lab technology. 2022 NADL Vision 21 meeting: Las Vegas January 20 - 22 (https://nadl.org/events/v21/2022/) Whip Mix (https://www.whipmix.com/) is very excited to announce the new PRO 4K large format 3D printer from Asiga (https://www.whipmix.com/products/asiga-pro-4k/). The open-material printer for 385nm and 405nm resins features renowned Asiga reliability, and super-fast print mode for large batch printing of virtually all print resins. It's ideal for printing any kind of model, dentures, splints, surgical guides, impression trays and more. The Asiga Pro 4K DLP printer is affordable so you can own it for under $25,000. It has a large build plate and is available in both 65 micron and 46 micron resolution versions. For information about the Asiga Pro 4K, visit whipmix.com or call Chris Frye at (513) 680-1512. Gro3X (https://www.gro3x.com/) is a dental supply, service, and marketing company. It is to help dental labs, and especially small labs to lower their cost for supplies, provide business opportunities, and generate growth. They carry amazing zirconia burs and their “rainbow burs” for PMMA and TriLor are top-notch. They also carry zirconia from Aidite, a wide range of Harvest Dental products, and different 3D print resins. What's really cool about Gro3X (https://www.gro3x.com/) is, that you can join their Gro3X Family program (https://www.gro3x.com/collections/family/products/gro3x-family) for only 99 cents. This will then give you an additional 10% discount on all of their supplies and even their CAD/CAM design and fabrication services. Get a 3-months trial membership with Gro3X Family now for only $0.99 and receive 3 Shade Peg Shots - free of charge (https://www.gro3x.com/products/shade-peg-refills?variant=39371434524715). Just go to www.gro3x.com and add Gro3X Family to your cart, then add 3- Shade Peg Shots of 3cc each to your cart and go to check out, enter discount code VFTB for Voices From The Bench and check out. Have you seen the high prices of precious metal these days? They are close to record highs on gold and palladium. With those high precious metal prices, you are paying a high cost for your alloys. We know that you are using less Precious metal in your lab these days, but if you send in half of what you sent in 5 years ago ,your scrap return will be higher than it was 5 years ago ,because of the high PM prices . You owe it to yourself to find a trusted, reputable refining company. Look no further! Kulzer refining (https://www.kulzerus.com/en_us/en_us/heraeuspreciousmetalsrefining/scraprefining.aspx) has been tested, trusted and reputable for over 100 years. They burn, melt and assay all under one roof at their state-of-the-art refining facility in Wartburg Tennessee. They have doubled their production capacity to ensure your scrap return within 2 weeks. With all the non-precious material that has become present in today's restorations it is important that we ensure the assay sample is homogenous. At Kulzer (https://www.kulzerus.com/en_us/en_us/home_9/home.aspx), they take the extra step to X-ray the top and bottom after they melt the bar to make sure the precious metal percentages--- are the same. If not, copper is added until they are positive the bar is homogeneous. We know this step is very important to get a precise assay result. Their reimbursement to the customer is after our 10% refining fee. They have zero additional fees. If you need any free shipping containers, which contain a UPS prepaid, full insured label, please visit mydental360.com/refining or call the Director of Precious Metal Refining, Tony Circelli, directly at (914) 906-1843. Special Guest: Justin Gerard.
The Fellowship is pleased to present our discussion of the Fantastic Four on or around the 60th anniversary of their debut. They've been a great vehicle for a wide array of stories (and villains), and maybe some cool stuff in the pipeline? Plus some random talk and our usual tangents
Sean & Joey discuss Robert Sarver & the Northwest division. (FULL DISCLOSURE: Due to an incredibly annoying combination of family health issues and technical difficulties we recorded this last week, so some stuff is SLIGHTLY out of date. New episode later this week!)Buy a T-shirt, Mug, Tote, Sweatshirt, or Covid mask here: https://www.teepublic.com/stores/roundball-rock-the-podcast?ref_id=13068 (Promo code: RoundRockPod for 30% off)SUPPORT: www.patreon.com/roundrockpodTWITTER & IG: @RoundRockPodE-MAIL: RoundRockPod@gmail.comPHONE: 323-682-0342MERCH: https://www.teepublic.com/stores/roundball-rock-the-podcast?ref_id=13068ALBUM: www.roundballrock.bandcamp.comSONG: "The Jokic" by Sean Keane See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Triforce! Slightly early access to an ad-free episode 199! Pyrion tells the most gripping story of the worst Saturday ever, we read our first ever fan email in our new mailbox section and Lewis has enough free time in his childless life to play board games and do jigsaws like an idiot. Go to http://expressvpn.com/triforce today and get an extra 3 months free on a 1-year package! Support your favourite podcast on Patreon: https://bit.ly/2SMnzk6 Music courtesy of Epidemic Sound. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Catholic Church owns a lot of land: churches, monasteries, schools, hospitals, cemeteries and more. What it's missing are maps. That's where Molly Burhans comes in. Molly is on a mission to not only make a digital record of Catholic landholdings but to help the church use that land for good. We ask Molly how Catholic organizations can make their land environmentally sustainable and socially useful, how frustrating it can be to work with the Vatican at times and how she remains hopeful in the face of climate change. In Signs of the Times, Zac and Ashley discuss the history of pope and president meetings ahead of Joe Biden's trip to the Vatican. Plus, a gay teacher and music director in the Diocese of Brooklyn is fired after he married his partner. We ask: What's the true cause of scandal in stories like this? Finally, we have a bonus episode for the members of our Patreon community. We sit down with our colleague Jim McDemott, S.J., a.k.a. The Pop Culture Priest, to talk about why we love the extremely Catholic Netflix show “Midnight Mass.” Become a Patreon member today to get this and future bonus episodes! Links from the show Biden's meeting with Pope Francis carries resonance as disputes divide U.S. Catholics Video: Joe Biden talks his Catholic Faith, Pope Francis and Politics A Gay Music Teacher Got Married. The Brooklyn Diocese Fired Him. How a Young Activist Is Helping Pope Francis Battle Climate Learn more about GoodLands What's on tap? Slightly expired Coors Light and Spencers Trappist beer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices