On Peace

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Congress for more assistance, he "made the case that Ukraine was defending Europe and defending the United States," says USIP's Ambassador William Taylor. And with Ukrainians more determined than ever, such aid could help usher in a Ukrainian victory over Russia.

Amid the harsh Ukrainian winter, Russia has launched a slate of rocket attacks targeting Ukrainian cities. “They can’t win … so they’re just going to attack civilian targets and hope that it weakens the resolve of the Ukrainian people,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “But there’s no sign that’s happening.”

Ahead of this week's summit, USIP's Joseph Sany says the United States has shifted its approach toward the continent: "Long gone are the days where America will come and dictate solutions. This time around, we are willing to listen and support African solutions for African problems."

After protests forced China to ease its zero-COVID policies, Xi Jinping will need to weigh socioeconomic stability against his authoritarian aims, says USIP's Andrew Scobell: "You’re seeing domestically what many countries have noticed China doing beyond its borders: Being more assertive or aggressive."

General Asim Munir was appointed as the new head of Pakistan's military this week — a position often viewed as the de facto leader of the country. Amid a fraught political environment, Munir's "first job is going to be figuring out what the civil-military balance is in Pakistan," says USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin.

The joint leaders' statement at the G20 Summit, while largely symbolic, showed that "Russia [is] a lot more isolated than perhaps we'd been led to suspect," says USIP’s Mary Glantz, adding that Russia's anti-imperialist justification for the war in Ukraine is "not getting the traction we thought it was."

A coalition involving several extreme right-wing parties has Benjamin Netanyahu poised to return as Israel's prime minister. "In some sense he owes them a debt," says USIP's Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen. "What is the cost being extracted by these right-wing parties" as the government formation process begins?

As COP27 continues in Egypt, USIP's Tegan Blaine says, "The one issue that is really beginning to explode this year is the issue of loss and damage" and support for poorer countries. "They weren't responsible for the cause, and they don’t have the resources to [address climate change] on their own."

Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked religion as part of his justification for Russia's attack on Ukraine, believing their shared Orthodox history would lend credibility to his ambitions. "Of course, the Ukrainians beg to differ," says USIP's Knox Thames. "It's actually strengthening Ukrainian resistance to [Putin's] aggressive actions."

Chinese leader Xi Jinping cemented himself as "clearly the most powerful ruler in China since Mao" at the recent National Party Congress. But USIP's Andrew Scobell says Xi has staked his legitimacy on delivering for the Chinese people — and sputtering economic growth poses a significant challenge going forward.

The recent escalation in North Korean missile tests and military exercises is Pyongyang's attempt at gaining leverage over the United States, says USIP's Frank Aum: "They want to create a crisis in order to pressure the United States back into talks on [North Korea's] terms."

Venezuela was a recurrent topic of discussions during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent tour through Latin America, says USIP's Keith Mines: "The hemisphere is looking for a new approach to Venezuela … the previous consensus of just adding more pressure and hoping for the best is breaking down."

With Ukraine making massive gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s escalating threats "show that [he] is getting a little bit desperate," says USIP's Mary Glantz. "He's been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victories," which has left the world "holding their breath to see what might happen."

As President Biden hosts a first-ever U.S. summit with Pacific Island countries, USIP’s Brian Harding says regional leaders "have some concerns" about growing U.S.-China competition — but they would rather "talk about their own interests and needs … If you ask them, their top priority by far is climate change."

Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Joseph Sany says the occasion is “an opportunity to celebrate, reflect and demonstrate our commitment” to building peace in our communities — as well as a chance to connect with millions of others through the Peace Day Challenge.

Despite geopolitical tensions, the U.N. General Assembly remains important for cooperation on urgent global challenges like climate change, says USIP's Andrew Cheatham: "It's within the bureaucracy of the United Nations that a lot of countries can show leadership … If we didn’t have the U.N., I think we'd have to build it."

After recent episodes of violence, Iraq’s political stalemate continues. “Bottom line … this is a fight over power” and differing views on foreign influence, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. “The Iraqi people are actually fighting for democracy. It is just the political class … that makes that a longer fight.”

A year on, the situation in Afghanistan is "looking really grim" as women and girls have lost the gains made over the past two decades and the country’s humanitarian crisis continues to spiral, says USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi. "The Taliban are trying to erase women from society."

With President Ortega now attacking the Catholic Church, USIP's Mary Speck says Nicaragua's democratic backsliding "has gone further than any other country" in Central America — noting the risk that regional leaders could follow Ortega’s lead after they "see what [he] has been able to get away with."

With “more people going hungry in Afghanistan than anywhere else in the world,” the Taliban have shown they recognize “the scope of the problems they’re facing. But they’ve also revealed … just how little they can do to grapple with the world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” says USIP's Andrew Watkins.

The 2020 Doha Agreement was meant to force the Taliban to "think twice" before harboring terror groups. But Ayman al-Zawahiri's killing in Kabul shows the deal was "just a piece of paper for the Taliban. They had no qualms about once again hosting the main leader of al-Qaida," says USIP's Asfandyar Mir.

Despite loosening former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa family's powerful grip on Sri Lankan politics, there's still "a crisis of legitimacy in the country, where people see the leadership can’t deliver" on issues like reconciliation, political reform and addressing the devastating economic crisis, says USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin.

On Monday, Tunisians voted on a new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied that vastly expands the powers of his office. While turnout was low, many Tunisians "support what the president is doing … they are voting based on one specific objective, which is to improve economic and social conditions," says USIP's Elie Abouaoun.

As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor says the war is now "a race … between the Ukrainians trying to get new weapons coming from the United States and other NATO nations while the Russians try to move through the eastern part of the country."

Biden set to meet nine Middle East leaders, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef says the trip aims to untangle recent tensions rather than “result in all kinds of breakthroughs and deliverables … the question is whether we can set ourselves on a path that can lead to more constructive relations.”

As it stands, both sides see little reason to engage in peace talks. But USIP’s Juan Diaz-Prinz says that shouldn’t stop the international community from trying to incentive an end to the conflict: “We’ve got to try everything, and we’ve got to try every avenue until the right one fits.”

With back-to-back G-7 and NATO summits this week, USIP's Donald Jensen says President Biden is focused on maintaining unity among allies and partners as the war in Ukraine grinds on: "Putin is counting on the faltering of Western assistance and political support for Ukraine … and that's what we’ll see discussed this week."

Last summer, "Tunisians had really reached a breaking point in their frustration with the previous government" and welcomed President Kais Saied's dissolution of parliament, says USIP's Leo Siebert. But that hope "is now shifting to apprehensiveness that things might not be going in the right direction."

While "there was a lot of controversy on the way in," USIP's Keith Mines says the summit produced several notable outcomes, including a declaration on migration, that give regional leaders a chance to "put some resources behind [these issues] and hopefully pull together some new initiatives."

With no establishment candidate left, Colombia's June 19 presidential runoff reflects voters' perception that "things [on] the ground are quite bleak" as the remaining candidates "promise significant degrees of change for Colombia and its relationship with the United States," says USIP’s Steve Hege.

President Biden returned from Asia “having scored some positive points in the region,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. But Biden’s forceful backing of Taiwan and China’s response is leading to “actual risk that there could be a collision … which could spark some kind of conflict.”

Amid a flurry of Asia diplomatic initiatives, USIP’s Frank Aum says President Biden’s trip is a chance to show the United States is committed to having a major presence in the Indo-Pacific, but that “this is not something that happens in a single summit… We’re going to have to continue to strengthen those efforts.”

Security, territorial and political tensions between Southern Asia’s three nuclear states — Pakistan, India and China — "have gotten worse over the past few years," says USIP’s Daniel Markey. "These are countries that have been at war a number of times… that [makes] these hostilities difficult to manage."

Ahead of this week’s U.S.-ASEAN summit, USIP’s Brian Harding says the Biden administration is “kicking off a really intense period of diplomatic engagement with Asia” with plans to draw a contrast with China and seek cooperation on issues such as climate change and supply chains.

Amid ongoing revelations of atrocities committed against Ukrainians at the hands of Russian forces, USIP’s Lauren Baillie says efforts to investigate and prosecute these crimes will require creativity and “the ability to think more broadly about how we bring perpetrators to justice and recognize the unique needs of victims.”

As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, USIP’s Heather Ashby says the United States should “keep an eye on Russia’s security partnerships with [African] countries” and pay close attention to “whether the rise in fuel prices or food scarcity trigger any type of unrest” on the continent.

As Russia withdraws resources from Myanmar to focus on Ukraine, China has filled the void by publicly supporting the junta. Meanwhile, the situation inside Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with “the military only able to hang on [to power] by using violence of tragic proportions,” says USIP’s Jason Tower.

Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin says, "There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament" but that "his downfall really, number one, was the economy."

Israel’s Negev summit with top Arab and U.S. diplomats was “groundbreaking” for the region. “You could not think of a more dramatic way to underscore the acceptance of Israel into the Arab world,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.

With Russian forces reportedly shifting focus to Donbas, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “Overall the Russian military has been unmasked to be … quite a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. But that doesn't mean they're not dangerous or effective in some places.”

While there are similarities between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says the two situations are markedly different upon closer inspection: “Russia also likes to flout international norms [while] China largely pretends to be playing by them.”

For the first time in 20 years, USIP's Donald Jensen says we've seen cracks in Russian elites' allegiance to Putin: "While they're still amorphous and not very organized, they're clearly unhappy." And if the war drags on and losses mount, "Putin has a big, long-term problem on his hands."

As Ukraine's military continues to resist Russian advances throughout the country, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor offers the latest updates on the situation, saying the "the international tide is clearly turning against Russia" as more nations implement sanctions and that "Russia is now a pariah state."

The pandemic has “really laid bare some inequalities” facing those with disabilities, says USIP’s Elizabeth Murray. But last week’s Global Disability Summit offered “an opportunity for disability inclusion to be integrated across U.S. foreign policy,” particularly when it comes to peacebuilding programs.

As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s Asfandyar Mir says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”

After the annual PeaceCon featured climate change as one of the conference’s main themes, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says, “It’s no longer possible to say that climate change does not intersect with peacebuilding. The realities are there … we need to be more honest about what the likely impacts are going to be.”

A year after the military coup, Myanmar's diverse opposition is working together on an alternative to military rule. USIP's Priscilla Clapp says while “it will take years to bring a consensus about for this new government, it's a very good start … we have hope that there can be unity there if they work on it.”

Kazakhstan has stabilized after protests broke out to start the new year. USIP's Gavin Helf says while the sudden unrest was driven by “real, honest-to-goodness protests … what we really saw was the weakness of authoritarian systems,” as loyalists of the previous and current leaders clashed amid the public upheaval.

While Ukraine's military is in much better shape than when Russia first invaded in 2014, USIP's William Taylor says it's “not able to hold off the entire Russian military” alone, and that the United States and NATO must “make it clear to President Putin that the costs of invading will be much greater than the benefits.”

Despite the military junta's imprisonment of ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, USIP's Billy Ford says there's an opening for more inclusive narratives within the resistance movement — and if the movement can “unify around those [narratives] … it could come together and potentially defeat this regime.”

Despite a “near-total loss of faith in the political process” going into 2022, USIP's Keith Mines says Venezuelans have not lost hope for a better future — and that underneath the polarization and dissatisfaction, you can “find a vision for the country that is shared by most Venezuelans.”