Conversations with Bill Kristol

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.

How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics?According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law's Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump's inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it's plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections.

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry.To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump's nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.

How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key fault lines today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics. As Sosnik puts it: In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the diploma divide. Whereas in the past the axiom that all politics is local rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that all politics is national. Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are not crazy!

How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key fault lines today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik , former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics. As Sosnik puts it: In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the diploma divide. Whereas in the past the axiom that all politics is local rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that all politics is national. Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are not crazy!

What is the substance of the federal indictment against Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents? How could the case play out in the legal system, and in our politics? Are future indictments likely? Could these matters alter the political landscape in advance of the 2024 elections? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law's Just Security blog, the indictment of Donald Trump is a momentous development. Trying the case against Trump will be complex, Goodman argues, because of uncertainties—the presiding judge, the classified nature of the material, and how close we are to 2024—which could introduce some wild zigs and zags to the case. And yet, he argues, it is possible there could be a trial by next summer. Goodman argues that other indictments likely are forthcoming, too. Cases against Trump for his role in January 6th, as well as electoral fraud, also might be heard in advance of the election—possibly featuring testimony from key figures in Trump's inner circle like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows. Much remains unknown, but Goodman contends that there will be a lot to follow on these matters in the months and year ahead.

What is the substance of the federal indictment against Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents? How could the case play out in the legal system, and in our politics? Are future indictments likely? Could these matters alter the political landscape in advance of the 2024 elections?  According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law's Just Security blog, the indictment of Donald Trump is a momentous development. Trying the case against Trump will be complex, Goodman argues, because of uncertainties—the presiding judge, the classified nature of the material, and how close we are to 2024—which could introduce some wild zigs and zags to the case. And yet, he argues, it is possible there could be a trial by next summer. Goodman argues that other indictments likely are forthcoming, too. Cases against Trump for his role in January 6th, as well as electoral fraud, also might be heard in advance of the election—possibly featuring testimony from key figures in Trump's inner circle like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows. Much remains unknown, but Goodman contends that there will be a lot to follow on these matters in the months and year ahead.

How should we think about immigration in American life today? How well do today's immigrants do—economically and culturally—compared to the immigrants of previous eras? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Princeton economist Leah Boustan. Drawing on rigorous analysis of data for her important co-authored work in economic history Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success, Boustan explains a perhaps surprising fact: despite all of the differences between contemporary America and that of past generations, immigrants today are faring similarly to previous immigrants in terms of how quickly their earnings grow after they arrive in the country, and especially in terms of how well their children are doing in their own upward mobility and earnings. Moreover, Boustan explains how today's immigrants are assimilating culturally in much the same way as in earlier eras. Boustan considers the challenges and benefits of immigration in the context of the broader economy—and pushes back against arguments for the restricting of immigration that rely excessively on analysis and data that consider only very short-term implications. Above all, she argues that immigration, then and now, has been in the United States an astonishing story of success.

How should we think about immigration in American life today? How well do today's immigrants do—economically and culturally—compared to the immigrants of previous eras? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Princeton economist Leah Boustan. Drawing on rigorous analysis of data for her important co-authored work in economic history Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success, Boustan explains a perhaps surprising fact: despite all of the differences between contemporary America and that of past generations, immigrants today are faring similarly to previous immigrants in terms of how quickly their earnings grow after they arrive in the country, and especially in terms of how well their children are doing in their own upward mobility and earnings. Moreover, Boustan explains how today's immigrants are assimilating culturally in much the same way as in earlier eras. Boustan considers the challenges and benefits of immigration in the context of the broader economy—and pushes back against arguments for the restricting of immigration that rely excessively on analysis and data that consider only very short-term implications. Above all, she argues that immigration, then and now, has been in the United States an astonishing story of success.

What did we learn about Donald Trump's 2024 campaign from last week's CNN town hall? How should we assess Ron DeSantis's prospective candidacy so far? What are Joe Biden's strengths and weaknesses as we head into the 2024 race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. Stoddard shares her perspective on why Trump remains the force in the Republican field—and how DeSantis has yet to live up to early expectations. Turning to the Democrats, Stoddard explains how outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms helped Joe Biden to secure a lock on his party's nomination. Nonetheless, she notes that many Democrats remain jittery about Biden's age and prospects. As things stand, she argues, the improbable rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems likely despite being unpopular across a broad swath of the American public.

What did we learn about Donald Trump's 2024 campaign from last week's CNN town hall? How should we assess Ron DeSantis's prospective candidacy so far? What are Joe Biden's strengths and weaknesses as we head into the 2024 race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. Stoddard shares her perspective on why Trump remains the force in the Republican field—and how DeSantis has yet to live up to early expectations. Turning to the Democrats, Stoddard explains how outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms helped Joe Biden to secure a lock on his party's nomination. Nonetheless, she notes that many Democrats remain jittery about Biden's age and prospects. As things stand, she argues, the improbable rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems likely despite being unpopular across a broad swath of the American public.

Where do things stand in Ukraine as the war enters its fifteenth month? What must Ukraine accomplish on the battlefield in its long-anticipated counteroffensive? What can the US and allies do to support Ukraine now? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan notes that Russian forces have been seriously degraded in the war thanks to the impressive defense mounted by the Ukrainians. Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and much depends on whether Ukraine succeeds in a counteroffensive in the months ahead. Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to do more now to step up military and financial support for Ukraine as it attempts to drive Russia back from strategically vital territory. Kagan explains that a stalemate on the battlefield likely would enable a future Russian invasion of Ukraine—and also could have grave consequences geopolitically. The failure to support Ukraine toward some kind of victory, he argues, would set a dangerous precedent likely to be exploited by China and other adversaries around the globe.

Where do things stand in Ukraine as the war enters its fifteenth month? What must Ukraine accomplish on the battlefield in its long-anticipated counteroffensive? What can the US and allies do to support Ukraine now? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan notes that Russian forces have been seriously degraded in the war thanks to the impressive defense mounted by the Ukrainians. Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and much depends on whether Ukraine succeeds in a counteroffensive in the months ahead. Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to do more now to step up military and financial support for Ukraine as it attempts to drive Russia back from strategically vital territory. Kagan explains that a stalemate on the battlefield likely would enable a future Russian invasion of Ukraine—and also could have grave consequences geopolitically. The failure to support Ukraine toward some kind of victory, he argues, would set a dangerous precedent likely to be exploited by China and other adversaries around the globe.

What are the prospects for Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and other potential candidates as we head to 2024? How will the media respond to the challenges of covering presidential politics in the current era? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dan Balz, chief correspondent of The Washington Post and a veteran analyst of American politics and the media. In a wide-ranging Conversation, Balz reflects on the ways in which both media and politics still are very much shaped by—and often orchestrated by—Donald Trump. The intensity of the interest in the former president especially compared to the current president underscores how unlikely it is we'll see a return to the pre-2015 political or media environment. Kristol and Balz also consider how 2024 may differ from previous races, and how that could affect both the strategies and coverage of Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and others.

What are the prospects for Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and other potential candidates as we head to 2024? How will the media respond to the challenges of covering presidential politics in the current era? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dan Balz, chief correspondent of The Washington Post and a veteran analyst of American politics and the media. In a wide-ranging Conversation, Balz reflects on the ways in which both media and politics still are very much shaped by—and often orchestrated by—Donald Trump. The intensity of the interest in the former president especially compared to the current president underscores how unlikely it is we'll see a return to the pre-2015 political or media environment. Kristol and Balz also consider how 2024 may differ from previous races, and how that could affect both the strategies and coverage of Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and others.

The period between World War I and World War II has long been a reference point in foreign policy debates, yet much about the period remains in dispute. Why did the United States turn away from internationalism after the First World War? Could the US have shaped an enduring liberal world order in the 1920s? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. According to Kagan, Usually the peace is lost at a time when the threats are not obvious, and the need to do something is not obvious. Drawing on his recent book The Ghost at the Feast, Kagan highlights the centrality of American leadership to any peaceful world order, and contends it was not inevitable the US would turn away from Europe and Asia in the 1920s. He draws particular attention to the interrelation of domestic politics to foreign policy, and considers the possibility of how under different domestic circumstances Woodrow Wilson's internationalism might have succeeded. Kagan points to an enduring paradox of American foreign policy: Americans will not tolerate a real serious assault on liberalism in the world writ large, but they are perfectly willing to ignore what's going on until that challenge appears unmistakably—and they feel they have no choice. Yet the decisions of the 1920s and 1930s, and of the last eighty years, reveal the profound consequences of inaction as well as action.

The period between World War I and World War II has long been a reference point in foreign policy debates, yet much about the period remains in dispute. Why did the United States turn away from internationalism after the First World War? Could the US have shaped an enduring liberal world order in the 1920s? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. According to Kagan, Usually the peace is lost at a time when the threats are not obvious, and the need to do something is not obvious. Drawing on his recent book The Ghost at the Feast, Kagan highlights the centrality of American leadership to any peaceful world order, and contends it was not inevitable the US would turn away from Europe and Asia in the 1920s. He draws particular attention to the interrelation of domestic politics to foreign policy, and considers the possibility of how under different domestic circumstances Woodrow Wilson's internationalism might have succeeded. Kagan points to an enduring paradox of American foreign policy: Americans will not tolerate a real serious assault on liberalism in the world writ large, but they are perfectly willing to ignore what's going on until that challenge appears unmistakably—and they feel they have no choice. Yet the decisions of the 1920s and 1930s, and of the last eighty years, reveal the profound consequences of inaction as well as action.

How serious a threat to the economy is the current turmoil in the banking sector? What are the prospects for a soft landing—or more turbulence ahead? How should we think about the challenge of combating inflation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy directory of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama's second term. In this Conversation, Furman shares his candid assessment of the current challenges in the macroeconomy: Unless you have [a] soft landing, which I think is unlikely, there's a recession out there. I used to think the recession was more second half of this year or first half of next year. The banking crisis may move that forward, he says. Yet Furman explains how dynamic is the situation, and lays out several plausible scenarios as well as his views on the key indicators to look for in the months ahead. Furman also reflects on the American economy more broadly, and shares his perspective on the future of inflation and interest rates, debt and deficits, productivity, and immigration.

How serious a threat to the economy is the current turmoil in the banking sector? What are the prospects for a soft landing—or more turbulence ahead? How should we think about the challenge of combating inflation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy directory of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama's second term. In this Conversation, Furman shares his candid assessment of the current challenges in the macroeconomy: Unless you have [a] soft landing, which I think is unlikely, there's a recession out there. I used to think the recession was more second half of this year or first half of next year. The banking crisis may move that forward, he says. Yet Furman explains how dynamic is the situation, and lays out several plausible scenarios as well as his views on the key indicators to look for in the months ahead. Furman also reflects on the American economy more broadly, and shares his perspective on the future of inflation and interest rates, debt and deficits, productivity, and immigration.

How has China responded to Russia's War in Ukraine, and what lessons could the CCP draw from the course of the war? How has the war and other recent developments affected US-China relations—and how should the US and allies advance the cause of deterring China? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. While China has been cautious about intervening directly on behalf of Russia in the war, Friedberg explains that much is at stake for the CCP in Vladimir Putin not losing. Friedberg argues that continued American and allied support for victory by Ukraine would have a strong effect in deterring China and its ambitions to reshape the geopolitical order. He notes that over the last few years Americans increasingly have come to understand the grave military and economic threat to the US posed by China. To meet this challenge, he argues the US must brace itself for a potentially long period of strategic competition with China—and work in concert with allies to develop new networks of military, technological, and political capacities.

How has China responded to Russia's War in Ukraine, and what lessons could the CCP draw from the course of the war? How has the war and other recent developments affected US-China relations—and how should the US and allies advance the cause of deterring China? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. While China has been cautious about intervening directly on behalf of Russia in the war, Friedberg explains that much is at stake for the CCP in Vladimir Putin not losing. Friedberg argues that continued American and allied support for victory by Ukraine would have a strong effect in deterring China and its ambitions to reshape the geopolitical order. He notes that over the last few years Americans increasingly have come to understand the grave military and economic threat to the US posed by China. To meet this challenge, he argues the US must brace itself for a potentially long period of strategic competition with China—and work in concert with allies to develop new networks of military, technological, and political capacities.

One year into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What have we learned about the character of Ukraine, Putin's war aims, the fault lines in European politics, and America's resolve? Why should the West continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Anne Applebaum, a leading scholar of Ukraine and Pulitzer Prize winning historian. According to Applebaum, Ukraine's impressive strength speaks to Ukraine's virtues in defending itself—as a free country—through an appeal to liberal nationalism and patriotism. This is why an independent Ukraine represents such a threat to Putin's regime. And Putin remains very clear about his war aims: the destruction of Ukraine as an independent nation. We must not allow this to happen, Applebaum argues, because a Russian victory not only would imperil Ukraine but also the whole European order, and embolden autocratic regimes like China around the globe. An expert analyst of European politics, Applebaum also reflects on responses to the war by European nations, and describes how current Polish-German relations present tensions in the alliance.

One year into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What have we learned about the character of Ukraine, Putin's war aims, the fault lines in European politics, and America's resolve? Why should the West continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Anne Applebaum, a leading scholar of Ukraine and Pulitzer Prize winning historian. According to Applebaum, Ukraine's impressive strength speaks to Ukraine's virtues in defending itself—as a free country—through an appeal to liberal nationalism and patriotism. This is why an independent Ukraine represents such a threat to Putin's regime. And Putin remains very clear about his war aims: the destruction of Ukraine as an independent nation. We must not allow this to happen, Applebaum argues, because a Russian victory not only would imperil Ukraine but also the whole European order, and embolden autocratic regimes like China around the globe. An expert analyst of European politics, Applebaum also reflects on responses to the war by European nations, and describes how current Polish-German relations present tensions in the alliance.

What were the major political and diplomatic issues that Israel's founders faced in 1948? How did they inform the writing of Israel's Declaration of Independence? What can Israel's Declaration teach us about natural and historic rights, the relationship of religion and state, and the meaning of national sovereignty? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Neil Rogachevsky, a scholar of Israel studies and political thought at Yeshiva University in New York and co-author, with Dov Zigler, of the forthcoming book: Israel's Declaration of Independence. Rogachevsky tells the riveting story of the composition of Israel's Declaration of Independence. Its first draft, he explains, was a collaboration between an American rabbi and a young Israeli lawyer, and produced a text that fundamentally drew upon America's Declaration of Independence, which blended natural rights and Jewish justifications for the Jewish state. Rogachevsky narrates the drama of the weeks and days leading up to the eve of independence on May 14, 1948, as the Declaration weaved its way through the bureaucracy of the state-to-be before landing on the desk of Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. Ben-Gurion had to make monumental decisions about the character of the state and its relationship to the outside world. His choices, Rogachevsky argues, fundamentally shaped modern Israel—and offer lessons about democracy, rights, sovereignty, religion, and statecraft that resonate to this day.

What were the major political and diplomatic issues that Israel's founders faced in 1948? How did they inform the writing of Israel's Declaration of Independence? What can Israel's Declaration teach us about natural and historic rights, the relationship of religion and state, and the meaning of national sovereignty? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Neil Rogachevsky, a scholar of Israel studies and political thought at Yeshiva University in New York and co-author, with Dov Zigler, of the forthcoming book: Israel's Declaration of Independence. Rogachevsky tells the riveting story of the composition of Israel's Declaration of Independence. Its first draft, he explains, was a collaboration between an American rabbi and a young Israeli lawyer, and produced a text that fundamentally drew upon America's Declaration of Independence, which blended natural rights and Jewish justifications for the Jewish state. Rogachevsky narrates the drama of the weeks and days leading up to the eve of independence on May 14, 1948, as the Declaration weaved its way through the bureaucracy of the state-to-be before landing on the desk of Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. Ben-Gurion had to make monumental decisions about the character of the state and its relationship to the outside world. His choices, Rogachevsky argues, fundamentally shaped modern Israel—and offer lessons about democracy, rights, sovereignty, religion, and statecraft that resonate to this day.

Eleven months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What does the West need to do to help Ukraine win? What lessons can we draw from the war about the ambitions of authoritarians, the resolve of liberal democracies today, and the most pressing geopolitical challenges we face? To discuss these questions, Bill Kristol is joined by Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, who has led important efforts in education and civil society in Ukraine over the last decade. According to Fukuyama, we are in the midst of a difficult moment in the war. Nonetheless, he argues, the fundamental dynamics remain unchanged: Ukraine can win if it receives adequate military and financial support from the West. Fukuyama argues that Ukraine's impressive performance and Russia's weakness should force us to confront and reassess the fashionable narrative of pessimism about liberal democracies. The war, as well as other recent developments, has revealed the reserves of strength and resilience in liberal democracies, while the weaknesses of strong states such as Russia and China have become more apparent. This assessment is not one of complacency. Rather, Fukuyama points to the high stakes of the war—and the importance of strengthening our resolve to defend free countries against authoritarian threats.

Eleven months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What does the West need to do to help Ukraine win? What lessons can we draw from the war about the ambitions of authoritarians, the resolve of liberal democracies today, and the most pressing geopolitical challenges we face? To discuss these questions, Bill Kristol is joined by Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, who has led important efforts in education and civil society in Ukraine over the last decade. According to Fukuyama, we are in the midst of a difficult moment in the war. Nonetheless, he argues, the fundamental dynamics remain unchanged: Ukraine can win if it receives adequate military and financial support from the West. Fukuyama argues that Ukraine's impressive performance and Russia's weakness should force us to confront and reassess the fashionable narrative of pessimism about liberal democracies. The war, as well as other recent developments, has revealed the reserves of strength and resilience in liberal democracies, while the weaknesses of strong states such as Russia and China have become more apparent. This assessment is not one of complacency. Rather, Fukuyama points to the high stakes of the war—and the importance of strengthening our resolve to defend free countries against authoritarian threats.

Where do things stand two years into Biden's presidency? Should he seek reelection? What other prospective Democratic candidates might emerge in the months ahead? What are the odds Trump will be the Republican nominee, and what might a Republican primary field look like? To consider these questions, we are joined by James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist. While praising Biden's accomplishments, and in particular his handling of the war in Ukraine, Carville argues it could be best for the country for Biden to pass the torch to the next generation and not seek reelection. On the Republican side, Carville and Kristol assess Donald Trump's prospects, and the opportunities for challengers like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp. Carville contends that Trump's downward trajectory is striking—gone pecan, as they say in Louisiana. But he acknowledges that the former president still could win the nomination as a result of Republicans' winner-take-all primary contests and the strong attachment to Trump by a significant faction within the Republican Party. Carville also reflects more broadly on the state of our politics, including the persistence of MAGA policies and attitudes even beyond Trump, and the question of whether the threat to the Democratic Party posed by identity Left politics has peaked.

Where do things stand two years into Biden's presidency? Should he seek reelection? What other prospective Democratic candidates might emerge in the months ahead? What are the odds Trump will be the Republican nominee, and what might a Republican primary field look like? To consider these questions, we are joined by James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist. While praising Biden's accomplishments, and in particular his handling of the war in Ukraine, Carville argues it could be best for the country for Biden to pass the torch to the next generation and not seek reelection. On the Republican side, Carville and Kristol assess Donald Trump's prospects, and the opportunities for challengers like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp. Carville contends that Trump's downward trajectory is striking—gone pecan, as they say in Louisiana. But he acknowledges that the former president still could win the nomination as a result of Republicans' winner-take-all primary contests and the strong attachment to Trump by a significant faction within the Republican Party. Carville also reflects more broadly on the state of our politics, including the persistence of MAGA policies and attitudes even beyond Trump, and the question of whether the threat to the Democratic Party posed by identity Left politics has peaked.

What is liberalism? How did political thinkers like Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, and Montesquieu pave the way for modern liberal societies? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Harvard government professor Harvey Mansfield. Mansfield explains the choice of a politics of rights and consent in the thought of early modern thinkers, especially John Locke. Mansfield discusses the original case for liberalism, and explains how liberalism rightly understood calls upon important human qualities for the defense of liberty. Turning to Aristotle, Mansfield argues that in modernity a land of virtue can still exist—and that serious defenses of liberalism can draw on the fundamental insights of classical thinkers, especially Aristotle.

What is liberalism? How did political thinkers like Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, and Montesquieu pave the way for modern liberal societies? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Harvard government professor Harvey Mansfield. Mansfield explains the choice of a politics of rights and consent in the thought of early modern thinkers, especially John Locke. Mansfield discusses the original case for liberalism, and explains how liberalism rightly understood calls upon important human qualities for the defense of liberty. Turning to Aristotle, Mansfield argues that in modernity a land of virtue can still exist—and that serious defenses of liberalism can draw on the fundamental insights of classical thinkers, especially Aristotle.

What is cybersecurity? How has cybersecurity become integrally connected to our national security? What has the War in Ukraine taught us about the vulnerabilities we face? What kinds of cyber threats should we be prepared to meet in the future?To discuss these questions, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. As Hansen explains, cybersecurity can be understood as the safety, reliability, [and] availability of the technology that has transformed our lives in the past decades. Hansen argues that we have done reasonably well in securing the technologies we rely on. But as we are ever more reliant on technology, we increase our potential vulnerability to threats posed by rogue states and by criminals. To meet future challenges, Hansen advises us to think of cybersecurity as a dynamic and evolving process, in which both private companies and the government must do what is necessary to anticipate threats and maintain supremacy in technology.

What is cybersecurity? How has cybersecurity become integrally connected to our national security? What has the War in Ukraine taught us about the vulnerabilities we face? What kinds of cyber threats should we be prepared to meet in the future?To discuss these questions, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. As Hansen explains, cybersecurity can be understood as the safety, reliability, [and] availability of the technology that has transformed our lives in the past decades. Hansen argues that we have done reasonably well in securing the technologies we rely on. But as we are ever more reliant on technology, we increase our potential vulnerability to threats posed by rogue states and by criminals. To meet future challenges, Hansen advises us to think of cybersecurity as a dynamic and evolving process, in which both private companies and the government must do what is necessary to anticipate threats and maintain supremacy in technology.

What did the midterm elections reveal about Donald Trump's strength in the Republican Party? What are the central tensions in the GOP as we head into 2023—and what are Trump's chances to win the nomination in 2024? Might Republican elected officials, donors, and other elites coalesce around an alternative candidate like Ron DeSantis? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, the unmistakeable pattern of losses by MAGA-aligned, election-denying candidates indicate that Trump's position in the Party is weaker than before. But unwavering support from what Ayres calls the Always Trump faction of the Republican electorate still gives Trump a significant advantage heading into 2024. However, developments in 2023, including decisions of Republican elites to mobilize on behalf of a single challenger to Trump, could prove decisive. Kristol and Ayres also discuss how Democrats might respond to the prospect of a third Trump candidacy, and how that might affect Joe Biden's decision to seek reelection.

What did the midterm elections reveal about Donald Trump's strength in the Republican Party? What are the central tensions in the GOP as we head into 2023—and what are Trump's chances to win the nomination in 2024? Might Republican elected officials, donors, and other elites coalesce around an alternative candidate like Ron DeSantis? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, the unmistakeable pattern of losses by MAGA-aligned, election-denying candidates indicate that Trump's position in the Party is weaker than before. But unwavering support from what Ayres calls the Always Trump faction of the Republican electorate still gives Trump a significant advantage heading into 2024. However, developments in 2023, including decisions of Republican elites to mobilize on behalf of a single challenger to Trump, could prove decisive. Kristol and Ayres also discuss how Democrats might respond to the prospect of a third Trump candidacy, and how that might affect Joe Biden's decision to seek reelection.  

What happened in the midterms? What can explain why the 2022 midterm elections defied expectations and countered the trends of recent history? Will Trump be challenged successfully for the Republican nomination? Will Biden run again? To discuss these and other questions, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, Senior Editor of The Atlantic. In a Conversation after the 2020 elections, Brownstein noted how evenly divided and deeply entrenched the American political landscape had become. Summing up the 2022 midterms, Brownstein argues there has been surprisingly little change in the electorate since 2020, and moreover the country continues to trend toward fewer swing states. Yet strong opposition to Trump and the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade allowed the Democratic coalition to perform better than expected in midterms. What comes next? Brownstein and Kristol discuss what the data from Tuesday suggest, and what this means for our politics as we look towards 2024.

What happened in the midterms? What can explain why the 2022 midterm elections defied expectations and countered the trends of recent history? Will Trump be challenged successfully for the Republican nomination? Will Biden run again? To discuss these and other questions, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, Senior Editor of The Atlantic. In a Conversation after the 2020 elections, Brownstein noted how evenly divided and deeply entrenched the American political landscape had become. Summing up the 2022 midterms, Brownstein argues there has been surprisingly little change in the electorate since 2020, and moreover the country continues to trend toward fewer swing states. Yet strong opposition to Trump and the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade allowed the Democratic coalition to perform better than expected in midterms. What comes next? Brownstein and Kristol discuss what the data from Tuesday suggest, and what this means for our politics as we look towards 2024.

Eight months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? According to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Ukraine's stunning battlefield achievements have dramatically altered the dynamic of the war. As he puts it, Russians no longer have the ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. That's over. Russians have fundamentally gone over to the defensive. But serious challenges remain. Ukraine can reconquer or secure several strategically significant territories, without which Ukraine will remain highly vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The questions emerging from the war are momentous: What will come of Putin's nuclear threats? Is there an “off ramp” from the conflict? Are we in a new Cold War? Kagan's thoughtful examination of the present situation and reflection on its consequences help us see how a Ukrainian victory is necessary for the free world.

Eight months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? According to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Ukraine's stunning battlefield achievements have dramatically altered the dynamic of the war. As he puts it, Russians no longer have the ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. That's over. Russians have fundamentally gone over to the defensive. But serious challenges remain. Ukraine can reconquer or secure several strategically significant territories, without which Ukraine will remain highly vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The questions emerging from the war are momentous: What will come of Putin's nuclear threats? Is there an “off ramp” from the conflict? Are we in a new Cold War? Kagan's thoughtful examination of the present situation and reflection on its consequences help us see how a Ukrainian victory is necessary for the free world.

Iran today is in some kind of revolutionary stage…. All social classes are united behind the idea that they want the extinction of the regime, and all social classes seem to be united on the proposition that reform is not possible. So argues Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. In this Conversation, Takeyh analyzes the momentous events in Iran following the killing of the 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police last month. As Takeyh argues, the regime faces the greatest threat to its rule since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Takeyh shares his perspective on the complex political, social, and security dynamics in Iran and what to look for over the next weeks and months. Kristol and Takeyh also discuss what the US and the West should do to give the protest movement the best chances to succeed.

Iran today is in some kind of revolutionary stage…. All social classes are united behind the idea that they want the extinction of the regime, and all social classes seem to be united on the proposition that reform is not possible. So argues Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. In this Conversation, Takeyh analyzes the momentous events in Iran following the killing of the 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police last month. As Takeyh argues, the regime faces the greatest threat to its rule since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Takeyh shares his perspective on the complex political, social, and security dynamics in Iran and what to look for over the next weeks and months. Kristol and Takeyh also discuss what the US and the West should do to give the protest movement the best chances to succeed.

After the historic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, what should we look for as the Supreme Court begins a new term? How will the Court handle controversial subjects such as affirmative action and religious freedom? How should we understand the current Court's jurisprudence? To discuss these questions, we are joined by University of Chicago law professor William Baude. According to Baude, with its emphasis on originalist jurisprudence, the Court has become more willing to take bold actions—and likely will continue to do so this year. Yet Baude argues that the centrality of the Court today in settling the most controversial matters in our politics is as much a consequence of the failures of Congress as the judicial philosophy or temperament of Supreme Court justices. Kristol and Baude also discuss similarities and dissimilarities with eras like the New Deal when the Court acted as a counter-majoritarian force against a popular and unified Congress. Kristol and Baude also consider the threat of election subversion, a theme Baude addressed in greater depth in a memorable and important Conversation last year.

After the historic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, what should we look for as the Supreme Court begins a new term? How will the Court handle controversial subjects such as affirmative action and religious freedom? How should we understand the current Court's jurisprudence? To discuss these questions, we are joined by University of Chicago law professor William Baude. According to Baude, with its emphasis on originalist jurisprudence, the Court has become more willing to take bold actions—and likely will continue to do so this year. Yet Baude argues that the centrality of the Court today in settling the most controversial matters in our politics is as much a consequence of the failures of Congress as the judicial philosophy or temperament of Supreme Court justices. Kristol and Baude also discuss similarities and dissimilarities with eras like the New Deal when the Court acted as a counter-majoritarian force against a popular and unified Congress. Kristol and Baude also consider the threat of election subversion, a theme Baude addressed in greater depth in a memorable and important Conversation last year.

How has the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect of the Dobbs decision on Democratic voters has eaten into the advantage the out-of-power party typically has in an off-year election. Swing voters who view Republicans as too far from the mainstream on abortion, and other issues, threaten to upend GOP hopes of a Red Wave in November. At the same time, Galston reflects on the Democrats own vulnerabilities, particularly on cultural issues, which could hurt their electoral chances in November and beyond.

How has the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect of the Dobbs decision on Democratic voters has eaten into the advantage the out-of-power party typically has in an off-year election. Swing voters who view Republicans as too far from the mainstream on abortion, and other issues, threaten to upend GOP hopes of a “Red Wave” in November. At the same time, Galston reflects on the Democrats own vulnerabilities, particularly on cultural issues, which could hurt their electoral chances in November and beyond.

Where do things stand in Ukraine six months into the war? How have the United States, Britain, and NATO contributed to the war effort to this point? What more could we do in the months ahead? What broader lessons should we draw? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Tom Tugendhat, Conservative MP for Tonbridge and Malling and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British parliament. According to Tugendhat: the end result is clear. The courage and commitment of the Ukrainian people means that Ukraine will not and cannot be a Russian satellite or a Russian colony again. Nonetheless, as he argues, America, Britain, and the rest of the NATO allies must continue to support Ukraine on the military and diplomatic fronts to ensure a successful outcome. Tugendhat and Kristol also consider lessons we might learn from the new geopolitical situation we face following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. On this front, Tugendhat presents a compelling case for strengthening the alliance of free states around the world for the sake of our own security and prosperity and for the security of the world at large.

Where do things stand in Ukraine six months into the war? How have the United States, Britain, and NATO contributed to the war effort to this point? What more could we do in the months ahead? What broader lessons should we draw? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Tom Tugendhat, Conservative MP for Tonbridge and Malling and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British parliament. According to Tugendhat: the end result is clear. The courage and commitment of the Ukrainian people means that Ukraine will not and cannot be a Russian satellite or a Russian colony again. Nonetheless, as he argues, America, Britain, and the rest of the NATO allies must continue to support Ukraine on the military and diplomatic fronts to ensure a successful outcome. Tugendhat and Kristol also consider lessons we might learn from the new geopolitical situation we face following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. On this front, Tugendhat presents a compelling case for strengthening the alliance of free states around the world for the sake of our own security and prosperity and for the security of the world at large.

Why do great cities rise and fall? Why have cities been pivotal to the dynamism and growth of America's economy? What are the threats cities face today—and what can we learn from history about how best to help our cities thrive? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Ed Glaeser, chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and one of the world's leading experts on the economics and politics of cities. Glaeser explains that cities benefit from and encourage the human desire for proximity to one another, which can lead to new ideas, the transmission of discoveries, and entrepreneurship. But cities also are vulnerable to stagnation and decline, particularly when entrenched interests engage in "rent-seeking”— policies that keep newcomers down or out. Glaeser notes that we should avoid the temptation to develop a rigid set of policy prescriptions for every city, or to believe we know precisely how to plan cities or neighborhoods. Rather, he argues, we should favor policies that encourage innovation and development, and do not restrict the opportunity for people to cluster in the urban areas they choose.

Why do great cities rise and fall? Why have cities been pivotal to the dynamism and growth of America's economy? What are the threats cities face today—and what can we learn from history about how best to help our cities thrive? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Ed Glaeser, chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and one of the world's leading experts on the economics and politics of cities. Glaeser explains that cities benefit from and encourage the human desire for proximity to one another, which can lead to new ideas, the transmission of discoveries, and entrepreneurship. But cities also are vulnerable to stagnation and decline, particularly when entrenched interests engage in "rent-seeking”— policies that keep newcomers down or out. Glaeser notes that we should avoid the temptation to develop a rigid set of policy prescriptions for every city, or to believe we know precisely how to plan cities or neighborhoods. Rather, he argues, we should favor policies that encourage innovation and development, and do not restrict the opportunity for people to cluster in the urban areas they choose.

What have we learned about Donald Trump's influence on Republican elected officials, candidates, and voters through the primary season? What are the central tensions in the party as we head toward the midterms and 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, Donald Trump remains the center of gravity in the Republican Party and is broadly popular among party regulars. And yet there is a majority of Republican voters Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” who might be willing to consider an alternative in 2024. Ayres points to how some Republican elected officials have successfully managed to avoid Trump's insistence on denying the outcome of the 2020 election—and considers possible paths forward for the party that would allow some distance from Trump. Kristol and Ayres also discuss Republican prospects in the House and Senate in 2022 in light of issues including abortion, Joe Biden's approval, and the quality of candidates in both parties.