SCBS Morning Call
INVX 13/12/2024: Today XR EA ( 1:1@Bt 2 ) Program Trading Buy CCET vs Sell MOSHI EEResearch : Stocks of the Day Buy ADVANC and CPAXT Auto sector : Underweight : SAT STANLY vs Neutral AHFlows Buy Tech DELTA ( หลุด cash balance)Buy SET50/100 : CCET PR9Sell Energy BCP TOP and export Fx risk TU ITCFactor to watchTuesday 17 Dec. 2024 : Expected SET50/100 announcementFED FOMC meeting expected 0.25% interest rate cut on 17-18 Dec2024Wed.18 Dec 2024:Expected BOT to cut rate by 0.25% + impact on SET +19 pointsThursday 19 Dec 2024BOJ meetingFriday 20 Dec 2024FTSE Rebalancing Index effective
INVX 9/12/2024: SET Index 1450 level *** waiting Interest rate cut and Dec. book closing /Jan. Effect/ FIDF cut +++ seasonal flows Buy Bank KBANK SCB BBL KTB NKT IPO final price Bt 7.80Regional Flows Buy Tech vs Sell Property and Healthcare / Strong Inflows in Taiwan , Indo and India vs Sell KoreaProgram Trading Buy THCOM, YGG, GIFTStocks of the Day Prefer GPSC and BBL Research : GVREIT Neutral tp Bt 6.20 vs Prefer LHHotel REITs , FTREIT and DIF Factor to watch :Wed.11/12/2024 : IVF ศูนย์รักษาผู้มีบุตรยาก IPO Bt 3.10 listing in SET/Services / Advisor : Kingsfordมาตราการแก้หนี้ + Bank ประชุมไตรภาคี สรุปค่ารักษาพยาบาล RW Bt 12,000Thurs.12/12/2024 Gov. Stimulus Packages: E-ReceiptsFri.13/12/2025: XR EA 1:1 Bt 2.00 and XW 3:1 W @ Bt 4.00Tue.17-Wed.18 /12/2024 : FED to cut rate by 0.25% Wed.18/12/2024: BOT MPC exp. Interest rate cut by 0.25% *** positive to SET Index by 19 points
INVX 6/12/2024: Funds Flow Buy small cap and Foreign net sell big cap.Research : Stocks of the day Buy AOT and BBLHealthcare sector : Co-payment impact limited at 2-%-3%of total revenue and 2%-4% of core earnings in 2025 for private hospitals. To picks Prefer BDMS tp Bt 36Commerce Prefer CPALL tp Bt 81, better Sales and Margin with upside on E-Receipt stimulus package on Dec12,2024. Program Trading Buy only RBF and NETBAYMkt Concerned on VAT 15% ( Negative impact on Hotel and consumer sector ) vs Corporare tax cut to add Earnings(+5%) and boost SET Index ( mkt exp. 100 points)
INVX 4/12/2024 : SET Index 1450 and waiting for Dec18 to cut rate by 0.25% to add more 19 points to 1480Foreign Flows Net Buy Equity and TFEXInvestment Theme : Data Centre +AI play + GULF INTUCH ADVANC / INSET ITELE-Receipt ( 12 Dec24 ) play + CPALL HMPROTourism High season +MINT ERW BDMSShort Recovering play + GRM high season +BCP TOP BSRC SPRCGovernment Debt restructuring (11 Dec 24) +AEONTS KTCSelling pressure on -EA Capital raising and Earnings dilution ( XR 13 Dec24 ratio 1:1@Bt 2) -MONO mkt concerned on stock manipulated investigation -SAWAD debt repayment and denied on Politician participation
INVX 3/12/2024: EA ประกาศเพิ่มทุน 1:1@ 2 บาท และ3 หุ้น:1 warrant ราคาใช้สิทธิ์ 4 บาท *** XR 13 ธค 2024 —-Today INVX Event CPALL IR Group Conference at 11.00 MS Team Funds Flow Theme AI Data Centre : Tech and Telecom Play to welcome NVIDIA CEO to join AI Vision in Thailand on Wed. 4 Dec.2024Thursday 5 Dec. 24 : OPEC meeting Program Trading : Sell EA ( ขายหุ้นซื้อคืน 29 พย-6 ธค24)Buy CK ( ซื้อหุ้นคืนเริ่ม2 ธค24- 1 มิย 25)Commerce sector : E-Receipt play ( cabinet meeting 12 Dec24) Prefer CRC HMPRO Stocks of the Day Prefer AWC and HMPRO , positive 4Q24 Earnings +y/q Research : BSRC Upgraded to Neutral and raises target to Bt 8 ( from Bt 7 and Underperform)
INVX 29/11/2024: Flows shifts to Bond ***GS Upgraded Bind to Overweight vs Prefer USS&P500 and Gold to Oil vs Underweight EuropeToday IPO SNPS Bt 4.20 listing in SET/Personal . sector : SET50/100 last day calculation / exp. announcement mid Dec.24 and effective on Jan2,2025 SET50 คาดเข้า BANPU CCET COM7 SAWAD/ ออก BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR SET100 เปลี่ยนตัวเข้าจาก COCOCO เป็น TVO ค่ะ คาดเข้า AURA CCET JTS PR9 TVO/ ออก MBK RBF SKY TIPH TOA***EA ประกาศขายหุ้นซื้อคืน 16,658,600 หุ้น เริ่ม 29 พยัง-6 ธค 2024***ปัจจัยติดตาม9 ธค 2024 คุณสนธินัดชุมนุมหน้าสภา12 ธค 2024 E-Receipt play + CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRO18 ธค FOMC and BOT MPC meeting INVX and GS คาดปรับลดดอกเบี้ย 0.25% *** ตลาดกังวลอาจเลื่อนเวลาการลดดอกเบี้ยSET consider for SETFF free-float benchmark
INVX 27/11/2024: EA ประกาศขายหุ้นที่ซื้อคืน เริ่ม ศุกร์ 29 พย.-6 ธค2024 จำนวน 16,658,600 หุ้น : TU- ผู้บริหารมีแจ้งรายงานการขายหุ้นเพิ่มเติม (คุณธีรพงศ์ จันศิริ)8/11/2024: 14.95 บาท*7.2ล้านหุ้น = 108 ลบ.14/11/2024: 14.26บาท*2.5ล้านหุ้น = 36 ล้านบาท22/11/2024: 13.8บาท*2ล้านหุ้น = 26 ล้านบาทการขายหุ้นของผู้บริหารต่อเนื่องสามสัปดาห์ (รวม 170 ลบ.) อาจทำให้เกิด negative sentiment ต่อราคาหุ้นในระยะสั้นAnalyst meeting today 9.30-11.00 PR914.00 AHStocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and AOT Program Trading Sell EA. CCET / Buy RCL RBF MALEEKey Factors : Today 27/11/2024 Indonesia Election Friday 29/11/2024 SNPS IPO Bt 4.20/ SET/Personal THAI Airways meeting SET 50/100 calculationDec12,2024: Mkt expectation for E-Receipts + Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRODec18,2024 : BOT MPC to cut 0.25% interest rate to push SET Index +19 points GS retains OW Equities for both 3m/12m with lower returns, tactically OW US, some of MXAPJ and Japan vs UW Europe. Upgrade Bonds to OW as steeper curves pointing to excess returns vs cash, forecasting 10Y-UST yields at 4.25% by end-2025. UW Credits on severe valuation constraints. Neutral Commodities with the highest conviction in Gold, targeting $3000 by end-2025. # CPAXT - Led by operational improvement & synergy : We estimate 4QTD SSSG of +3% YoY on avg in B2B and B2C (vs B2B +1.5%, B2C +2.3% in 3Q24) backed by adding fresh food and omnichannel sales and a small boost from stimulus. EBIT margin is expected to widen YoY further on 1) more high-margin products, i.e. fresh food and house brand products; 2) good control of SG&A/sales on earlier closure of non-performing small B2C stores and a slower rise in omnichannel exp. CPAXT targets Bt5bn in synergy from amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, Bt2.5bn from sales and margin improvement and Bt2.5bn from capex reduction. We conservatively factor in synergy of Bt1.7bn on the P&L post amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, 3-4% p.a. core earnings growth adding. We forecast CPAXT to grow +19% YoY in 2025 (vs +15% for sector). Outperform TP Bt41.0.
INVX 26/11/2024 : Flows to Sell Energy Oil down PTT PTTEP TOP BCP vs Buy Tourism AOT BH4Q24 Earnings play +Q/Y +: GULF high Earnings record and upside from INTUCH AmalgamationStocks of the Day Prefer GULF and FTREIT ( DY'24 at 7.1% and ‘25 at 7.3%)Program Trading Sell BCP( expectation to be removed from SETESG and SET50)SET 50 /100 Play ( calculation till Fri.29 Nov.24 and announcement in mid Dec24) SET 50 exp.to Add BANPU COM7 SAWAD CCET / Delete BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR SET100 exp. to Add AURA CCET COCOCO JTS PR9/ Delete MBK RBF SKY TIPH TOA Factors to watch : Wed.27 Nov. 24 : Indonesia ElectionFri. 29 Nov.24 : IPO SNPS Bt 4.20 to list in SET/ Person : THAI meeting : SET 50/100 last calculation date : Nov24 Book closing
INVX 25/11/2024: Stocks of the Day Prefer Gulf and BBLProgram Trading Buy AMATA WHA ( Data Centre) /VGI COCOCO/ RBF Fund Flow : Regional weekly flow Buy KOREA Singapore,Philippines / Sector Outperformer Transportation and Materials Factor to watch : Today MSCI ปรับพอร์ต - SCGP TQM / + CCET Analyst meeting CCETWed 27 Nov. 24 Indonesia ElectionFri.29 Nov.24 : THAI meeting SET50/100 calculationIPO SNPS Bt 4.20 listing in SET/ Person.Gov Stimulus E-Receipt : mkt expecting to be announced on Dec12,2024
INVX Morning Call 22/11/2024Program Trading Sell DELTA HANA EPG EA TKNResearch : AOT raised target price to Bt 72 from Bt 70, sector picks
INVX Morning Call 21/11/2024Alert DELTA : SET posted Trading Alert and Cash Balance starts today 21 Nov.-11 Dec 2024 Program Trading : Sell EPG(ตลาดกังวลเรื่องตั้งสำรองหนี้สงสัยจะสูญอีก 100 ล้านบาท)Program Trading Buy SVI CCET MAGURA OKJFIDF Fee cut : Impact positive to BBL ( mkt expected +KBANK short covering) vs Negative TTB TISCOAM KKPResearch : Stocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and AMATA
INVX 21/10/2024: Foreign Flows Buy Bank Tech Telecom vs Sell Consumer Auto *** Program Trading Sell ADVANC VGI SINGER SGC***Research 3Q24 Earnings season for Bank Prefer BBL KTB KKP **^Key Catalyst BOT MPC 18 Dec 2024 to cut rate by 0.25% to push SET Index by 19 points *** Warning for OSP 3Q24 Earnings to book impairment loss Bt -1 bn from Myanmar divestment, core profit Bt 616 mn and 4Q24 stronger sales ,-1 SD Outperform tp Bt 29 *** Last Sunday 20 Oct 24 Indonesia Election***Next Sunday 24 Oct 24 Japan Election
INVX Morning Call 20/11/2024INVX Strategy 1Q25 Top picks Buy ADVANC AOT BCH CPALL HMPROSET Index target24 at 1500 and ‘25 at 1550base on interest rate cut by 0.25% on Dec.18,24 and two 0.25% cut in 1H25***every 0.25% interest rate cut impact positive on corporate earnings and SET Index by +19 pointsProgram Trading Buy BCP EA SAPPE SPA BYD GS Buy BDMS / Cut target price to Bt 36.60 from Bt 38.50,lower revenue growth guidance to 7%-8% from 10%-12% but still growth in 4Q24 ResearchStocks of the Day Prefer +DELTA 4Q24 Earnings best qoq/yoy and AI play +CPALL 4Q24 Earnings positive qoq/yoy, upside from interest rate cut and better SSSgResearch target changeBTS Neutral / raised target price to Bt 5.30 from Bt 5.10HANA Downgrade to Neutral / Cut target price to Bt 30 from Outperform/ target price Bt 56
INVX Morning Call 19/11/2024: Today Gov. meeting for Econ. Stimulus package and INVX NKT PDIE Group meeting today at 15.00 MS Team SET Index target : GS 12 m at 1500 Underweight/ INVX targets 1450-1480 with year end 2024 at 1500Theme USD Stronger for Longer : INVX FxTHB/USD3 /6/12 m35/35.50/36GS 3/6/12 m50/36/36.50Foreign net buy with better 3Q24 Thai GDP +++ Flows Buy Bank ,Property AP SIRI , Tourism , CommerceProgram Trading Buy CCET ERW SPRC CCET positive 9 M24 Earnings with trading on SET 100 and MSCI small cap additionSelling THG TU and Chinese related PRM RCL STA AMATA
INVX 18/11/2024INVX Alert 18/11/2024 : GS Downgraded Thailand to Underweight / Cut 12 m SET Index target to 1500 from 1600 GS 2025 Macro Outlook : US Tariff impact negative on China / Europe and related Asia : Thailand HK Korea GS cut GDP / EPS / less Interest rate cut vs higher Inflation in 2025
INVX 15/11/2024 Investment Theme : Fx THB weak ( 35/35.50/36 in 3/6/12 m 2025) / Interest rate cut ( 18 Dec 24 by 0.25% and 1H2025 by 0.25%+0.25%) / SET50/100 Play + CCET PR9SET Index target end 2024 at 1500 and 2025 at 1550NKT รพ นครธน IPO to be listed in SET/HealthcareProgram Trading Buy CENTEL(3Q24 Earnings better than mkt exp by 20% ) / CRC (3Q24 Earnings better / Gov.Stimulus package benefit)/OSP/EPG vs Sell TLResearch : GULF 3Q24 Earnings high record with 4 Q24 Earnings highest record with upside risk from Outperform tp Bt 70 Analyst meeting summaryPositive : BTG CRCNeutral. : BJC GPSC SPRC OR TOP Stocks of the Day Prefer CPF and CPAXT
INVX 14/11/2024: Positive Earnings for CRC CPALL CPAXT / Prefer CPF to TU ***Today NKI IPO รพ นครธน Research Publishment *** Blackout on Nov17,2024 ***Foreign Flows Buy Bank BBL KBANK KTB SCB and Tech DELTA CCET KCE and Consumer ( Stimulus package meeting on Nov.19,2024)+ COM7 ( SET 50 play)Program Trading Buy MTC TIDlOR/ COM7/PLANB/ PTG Research : Raise target price of +BLA Outperform, target price Bt 27 from Bt 21=TLI Neutral,target price Bt 11 from Bt 8.40+CPALL Outperform, tp Bt 81 from Bt 80+CRC OP,tp Bt 39 from Bt 38+TIDLOR OP tp Bt 21 from Bt 18vsCut target price of-SAWAD Underperform, cut tp to Bt 32 from Bt 41-SPRC Neutral, tp Bt 7.90 from Bt 8.50Analyst meeting :Positive tone for AAV MTC TIDLOR Negative SNNP BH
INVX Morning Call 13/11/2024ResearchStocks of the Day Prefer CPF best Earnings growth in Food sector ( better switch from TU )and AU better Earnings growth in 4Q24-Earnings'25Program Trading : Sell VGI STGT KCE COM7 and SNNPTarget Price & Recommendations - Nov 13, 2024 : Raised target price of CBG and Zen vs Cut target price of AH, KCE, MTC, TIDLORToday BJC Analyst Meeting 3Q24” on Wednesday 13th November 2024 (13:00 – 15:00) Zoom and Physical
INVX 12/11/2024Fund Flow Buy small cap PR9 COCOCO vs Sell big cap Energy Oil down, Bank, TourismResearch Downgrade TU from Outperform to Neutral / cut target price to Bt 16 from Bt 18, US Tariff negative impact/ Sales target revised down vs Prefer CPF Outperform,sector pick RJH Neutral/raised target price from Bt 28 to Bt 29KTB Neutral/ raised target price from Bt 22 to Bt 23Program Trading Buy JAS ( ได้ลิขสิทธิ์การถ่ายทอด Premier League) vs limit impact on TRUE vs Sell STGT CBG JMT CCET
INVX 11/11/2024Fund Flows GS Asia PacWeekly Kickstart : MXAPJ +2% led by ChinaA ( Yuan 10 bn Stimulus package> mkt exp.) and Taiwan / Sector Tech outperformed Energy GS Buy WHA higher land Sales , Bt 1 bn divestment revenue and Data Centre play. Raised target price to Bt 6.50 from 6.00GS cut target price TOP from Bt 67 to Bt 65, weaker Ebitda from larger than expected one-off inventory losses, stronger Thai Baht and higher OpexStocks of the Day : Buy CPALL and LHHotelResearch KEX Underperform tp Bt 1.70, negative view with unclear sign of recoveryTHRE Outperform with cut target price to Bt 0.70 fromBt 0.80QH Underperform with raise target price to Bt 1.97 from Bt 1.89
INVX 8/11/2024 SET alerts for DELTA Trading as 91xP/EProgram Trading Buy PTTGC vs Sell BH KCE SCGP BYDFlows Buy Bank ( FIDF fee cut benefit) SCB KBANK BBL KTB ). and Theme Data Centre ADVANC TRUE / AMATA INSETSwitching flows Buy CPF ( better CPALL and CPAXT withLow Fx THB volatility) vs Sell TU negative meeting on MANAGEMENT cut sales target24 to 3%-4% from 4%-5% and revised up SG&A / sales to 12.5%-13% from 12% Buy CCET vs Sell SCGP on MSCI playResearch CPAXT Outperform / raised target price to Bt 41 from Bt 40, better Sales&margin and MAKRO core profit first turn positiveBCP cut target price to Bt 44 from Bt 46, OutperformOR cut target price to Bt 22 from Bt 24 from stock and Fx lossLPN cut target price to 2.30 from Bt 2.40,Underperform from GM new low and 2025 to sell low rise stock to impact margin by -2%
INVX 7/11/2024Today INVX and GS expected FED to cut 25 bps Trump Win impact 3 month Overweight US USD and Bitcoin vs THB/$US depreciation at 35-35.50Flows Buy Tech DELTA HANA KCE CCET and Healthare BDMS vs Sell Bank and Consumer Finance TIDLOR ( weak Earnings and SET 50 deletion) Research Downgrade THANI to Underperform / cut target price to Bt 1.66 / Cut target price PTTGC to Bt 35
INVX 6/11/2024 Foreign net Buy both Equity and TFEXToday MSCI announcement/ effective on Nov.26,24 Today IPO MPJ Bt 6.00, MAI/ Logistic บริหารจานตู้คอนเทนเนอร์GS alerts for 12 m Neutral US and Asia ex Japan vs Neutral Japan vs Underweight EuropeSET Index targets at 1500 in Dec24 ( more 25 bps interest cut on Dec18,24 and Gov.stimulus package) and 2025 at 1550 by INVX vs GS 1600Theme Data Centre Play Buy INSET tp Bt 3.50 > mkt consensus target at 3.20 with better 3Q24 Earnings and higher growth Buy ADVANC TRUE and WHA AMATAProgram Trading Buy DELTA CCET BTCFund Flows Buy Tech DELTA HANA KCE Buy Energy PTT PTTEP TOP( 3Q Earnings bottom /GS expected Oil Brent 3/6/12@ $77/77/75 Buy Bank BBL SCB TTB ( FIDF fee cut) and Consumer Finance MTC SAWAD TIDLOR KTC SAWAD ( Gov. มาตราการแก้หนี้)High Conviction list Outperform HMPRO Outperform tp Bt 13, -2 SD ,Gov. benefit stimulus package with better SSSg
INVX 5/11/2024Today Thai Cabinet meeting with agenda Property stimulus and Tourism IPO iROYAL Bt 6.50 listing in MAI/ Service todayUS Election impact : worst case assumption impact Thai GDP25 by 0.5% from 3% and negative to TechWarnings Energy sector : weak 3Q24 Earnings from stock Loss : Prefer BCP and PTT Outperform Tourism sector : weak 3Q24 Earnings qoq from seasonal low except AWC sector pick +qoq/+yoy , High Conviction list tp Bt 4.40
INVX 4/11/2024 : SET Index targets at 1450-1480Program Trading Buy Rabbit / Sell COCOCO PROEN INSET BTC Regional Flows : Buy Telecom ( INVX Overweight ADVANC tp Bt 300 and TRUE ) and Property ( Cabiet meeting on Tuesday 5 Nov.24, mkt exp. Gov. stimulus package) vs Sell Healthcare, Tech, Consumer Research : Finance sector 3Q24 Earnings preview to be flat QoQ with higher ECL ( Outperform MTC TIDLOR AEONT: )MSCI review announcement on Wed.5/11/2024 : mkt expected to add MTC IVLUS Election on 5 Nov.24 : Mkt talked on Tariff cut / impact DELTA TUIPO IROYAL Bt 6.50, MAI/ Service on Tue. 5/11/2024IPO MPJ Bt 6.00, MAI / logistic on Wed.6,2024Key EventsMonday 4,2024: Board of BOT meeting at 14.00Tuesday 5,2024: US Election/ Thai cabinet meeting/ IPO iROYAL listingWed. 6,2024: MSCI announcement/ IPo MPJ IPO listingThursday 7,2024: SCC Mgt Group meeting / MS Team at 13.00-14.00
INVX Morning Call 1/11/2024Flows Buy Tech AI and Data Centre play +DELTA KCE HANA Buy Telecom overweight ADVANC Buy Energy PTTEP BCP BSRC , positive news on OPEC+ to delay supply increased by more monthProgram Trading Buy PLANB KCE DOHOME COM7vs Sell BAM( 2days consecutive sell)BAM downgraded to Underperform from Neutral tp Bt 7, weak 3 Q24 Earnings yoy/qoq : lower cash collection/ weak NPA sale vs higher ECL Today INVX published Databook ( mkt summary) and SET Event chart both Thai and English version ka
INVX Morning Call 31/10/2024: Investment Theme :Data Centre ( DELTA INSET) and SET50/100 new list ( calculation till end Nov24 /announcement in mid Dec24 / effective Early Jan25)SET 50 COM7 and SET 100. PR9Research : SCC 3 Q24 Earnings weaker than mkt exp and 9 m Earnings accounted 69% of FY24 with 4 Q24 weakest quarter from LSP interest expense and impairment . Neutral tp Bt 260BCH 3Q24 Earnings preview core profit Bt 474 mn buy mkt concerned on lower Kuwaiti patients and no conclusion on IPD and SC services revenue. Valuation -1 SD Outperform tp Bt 21INVX Invitation : โค้งสุดท้ายเลือกตั้งสหรัฐ ใครจะมา? ไทยจะได้จะเสียอย่างไร? (Group meeting; MS Team) Date : Thursday 31, Oct 2024 Time : 16.00 – 17.00 Speaker : Dr. Piyasak (Austin) Join the meeting nowhttps://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_NTExZjFhMTgtN2E1Mi00Y2Y4LWI0YWItYWI0ZjJiOGI5MzJh%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2245202dee-4088-4e8c-8ebd-c01f56740e8f%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%227067516c-a5a8-4c1d-96cf-f266d1dcba1f%22%7d
INVX Morning Call 30/10/2024MktTalk 30/10/2024 Entertainment Complex playUTA: BA BTS STECON คาดการณ์ เป็น หนึ่งในผู้สนใจและมีโอกาสได้ดีลนี้US Tariff/ Tax impact : Potential negative to DELTA and TUResearch : Stocks of the Day Prefer WHA Data Centre Play and strong FDI and Backlog, best 4Q24 Earnings +Earnings growth24 12.7% and 16% in 2025 GLOBAL , 3Q24 Earnings miss from Fx and margin but better SSSg and Steel price recovery in 4 Q24. Outperform tp 18.50HMPRO Outperform tp Bt 13, -2SD 3Q24 Earnings in line with Fx loss Bt 42 mn. Cut E'24 by 3% but better 4Q24 Earnings from better margin and SSSg SCGP 3Q24 Earnings in line but weaker than mkt expected but better 4 Q24 Earnings. Outperform tp Bt 38Program Trading Buy NEX SEI BTC vs Sell KCE HTECEurope negative impact : GS Underweight Europe,weaker Econ - KCE IVL and MINT
INVX Morning Call 29/10/2024Program Trading : Buy PTTGC non core asset divestment vs Sell TOP CFP expenses risk Buy CCET SET100 addition vs Sell DELTA 2025 US tariff / tax risk Buy BTS ,successful capital raising: Trading buy vs Prefer BEMResearch : Stocks of the Day Prefer BBL ( THAI Earnings recovery and relisted play and better NIM and Dividend payout from 34% to 40%) and TASCO better 3Q24 Earnings both yoy/qoq and Budget spending playUS Tariff/ Tax risk in 2025: DELTA and TUTourism sector pick : AWC and MINT vs ERW weak 3 Q24 Earnings preview , Neutral tp Bt 4.60Thai Export assumption : 2024 growth at 2% vs 4Q24 growth -4% , negative on Oil, Car and Jewelry
INVX Morning Call 28/10/2024MASTER moved to SET todayTRUE High Conviction list, raised target price to Bt 15 from Bt 13, better Ebitda and ARPU growth. More Upside on Data Centre play. Overweight Telecom TRUE and ADVANCBBL sector pick target price Bt 180, higher NIM and Dividend payout from Current 34% to 40%. Only BBL cut deposit and lending rate AP Outperform tp Bt 12.90, Earnings preview 3Q24 NP Bt 1.42 bn -16%yoy/+12%qoq. Lower GM but higher JV contribution. Better 4Q24 and higher backlog in 2025STANLY Underperform tp Bt 192, beat 2Q25 Earnings from extra items (high dividend income and equity income) . Valuation is unattractive
INVX Morning Cal25/10/2024Investment Theme : Nvidia investment Positive AMATA WHA***AMATA Buy tp Bt 32.30, backlog new high till Year 2568 and upgraded Earnings2025 by 5%+++Land Sales beat 2,000 raid target +(4Q24 more 500 rais) to 2,500 rais record high Tourism sector : Negative news on tourism tax and MINT 3 Q24 extra Fx loss $ 2,400 mn( hedging $US Perp )to offset 3Q24 Core profit Bt 2,700 mn to be NP Bt 304 mn-80% yoy/qoq. MINT Outperform tp Bt 36,-1SD Power Sector - GPSC and-BGIM from Minister of Energy reconsidered to review Renew. Bidding phase2Fund Flows : Sell Energy Bank Commerce and Tourismvs Buy IE and Food Food : 3 Q24 Earnings high from wider margin and lower feed cost Prefer CPF Outperform tp Bt 29,sector pick vs Outperform BTG tp Bt 28, GFPT tp Bt 16 and TU tp Bt 18Today 3Q24 results announcement : DELTA and TRUEAnalyst meeting 25/10/2024: BBL 14.00 / TRUE 19.30
INVX Morning Call 24/10/2024Fund Flows Buy USD US Equity vs Neutral Japan GDP24 growth downgraded to 0% ( Japan Election on Sunday 27,2024 ) GS expected THB/USD 12 m at $34 Program Trading Sell AAI INTUCH EA CCETResearch : Interest cut put pressure on Banks'NIM Neutral Bank sector pick only BBL tp Bt 180( today effective deposit and lending rate cut and BBL Analyst meeting on Friday 25 Oct 2024 at 14.00 Physical)WHA Outperform tp Bt 6.60, Earnings 3Q24 preview Bt 727 mn(+16.8% yoy/ -44% qoq but high in 4 Q24. FDI and data centre play . SNNP weak 3Q24 Earnings preview Bt 1380 mn,-7.1%yoy/-8.3% qoq to recover in 4Q24. Cut target price to Bt 17.60 from Bt 19.20 with lower PE from 26x to 24xAnalyst meeting : Friday 25 Oct 2024 : 14.00 BBL19.30 TRUE
INVX Morning Call 22/10/2024: IPO TMAN ( ยาแก้ไอน้ำดำไอยรา ยาดมโพรโพลิส) Bt 16.30 listed in SET / PersonBanking sector : Negative impact from lower lending rate by 0.25% effective on Nov.1,2024 ( SCB, KBANK ) impact NIM by 7-10 bps and Earnings by 5%-10%. **^Downgraded KTB to Neutral from Outperform with unchanged target price at Bt 22***KBANK Neutral /raised target price to Bt 160 from Bt 145 as higher mark to market gain ***Today Analyst meeting 10.00 KKP/ 13.00 SNNP/ 15.00 WHA ***Program Trading Buy CCET ***Fund Flows Buy Gulf INTUCH ADVANC THCOM / BTS BEM/ CCET HANA KCE vs Sell Energy Oil , Commerce, Auto, Tourism*** Key Factors : 5 Nov24 US Election with Trump poll Positive USD US Equity and Gold 3/6/12 m at 2750/2900/3040 6 Nov24 MSCI announcement : mkt talk to add MTC IVL to be effective on 26 Nov2418 Dec24 BOT MPC expected to cut rate by 0.25% to impact positive ( save financing cost of listed companies ) on SET Index by 19 points
INVX 21/10/2024: Foreign Flows Buy Bank Tech Telecom vs Sell Consumer Auto*** Program Trading Sell ADVANC VGI SINGER SGC***Research 3Q24 Earnings season for Bank Prefer BBL KTB KKP**^Key Catalyst BOT MPC 18 Dec 2024 to cut rate by 0.25% to push SET Index by 19 points *** Warning for OSP 3Q24 Earnings to book impairment loss Bt -1 bn from Myanmar divestment, core profit Bt 616 mn and 4Q24 stronger sales ,-1 SD Outperform tp Bt 29 *** Last Sunday 20 Oct 24 Indonesia Election***Next Sunday 24 Oct 24 Japan Election
INVX Morning Call 18/10/2024Today 18/10/2024 iNVX Event Energy and Utilities Sector / Group meeting / MS at 15.00-16.00 Today XD AEONTS Bt 2.55Program Trading Buy GULF INTUCH. VGIFlows Buy GULF INTUCH ADVANC THCOM and TRUE Buy Tech DELTA (AI),CCET( SET 100 addition) Buy Telecom ADVANC TRUE THCOMCautious China Play Petrochem Energy Oil and SCC Asset Allocation GS Prefers Gold (3/6/12 m at $ 2750/2900/3040) to Oil( China weak demand )
INVX Morning Call 27/10/2024***INVX and GS expected more 0.25% rate cut on Dec18,2024 *** impact positive on SET Index by 19 points ( Mkt EPS +1.3%) Sector benefit + Consumer Fin. and Property *** Foreign net Buy both Equity and TFEX / SET 50 / 100 play ( calculated till Nov.30 and announcement mid Dec2024/effective on early Jan25). SET50 Add BANPU COM7 SAWAD TCAP /Delete BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR / SET100 Add CCET COCOCO PR9 PTG/ Delete MBK RBF TIPH TOA *** IPO TMAN Bt 16.30 listing on Tuesday 22 Oct 2024 SET / Pharmaceutical ยาแก้ไอน้ำตราไอยรา และยาดมโพรโพลิส ***
INVX Morning Call 3/10/2567CPAXT กลับมาเทรดวันนี้ Outperform tp Bt 40 คาดการณ์กำไร 3Q-4Q24 ดีขึ้น และชัดเจนมากขึ้นในกลางปี 2568 ได้รับประโยชน์จากมาตราการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจภาครัฐ คาดหวังจะมี โครงการรัฐเพิ่มคล้ายยิ่งใช้ยิ่งได้หรือคนละครึ่งปลายปีนี้Overweight Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT BJC HMPRO GLOBALOverweight Utilities +Upgraded GPSC to Outperform to Bt 60 from Neutral, most benefit from renew. Phase2 bidding 3,668 MW and PDP 2024 Sector Pick : GULF outperform tp Bt 70 and GPSC Outperform tp Bt 60 vs BGRIM Neutral tp Bt 24.50Overweight Telecom Prefer TRUE tp Bt 13.00 and ADVANC tp Bt 300 for 1Q25 auction play with lower financing cost from debenture rollover / Data Centre playStocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and DELTAProgram Trading Sell AAV BA ( bath weakening) JTS ( weak crypto) vs Buy only INSET ( Google investment trading)
INVX 2/10/2567 : Positive Vayupak Fund Inflow and Google Investment push SET Index to 1450-1500GS upgraded Gold 3/6/12 m to $ 2750/2900/3040GS 12 m Overweight Equities and Commodities vs Neutral Cash/ BondUS Election Play ( historical track record 3 m after US Election) impact positive on Thai Financial / Property/ Transportation : Buy AOT AP SIRI BBL CPALL GULF Stocks of the day Prefer PTTEP and GULFFactors to watch : Thursday 3 Oct : CPAXT to resume trading ( 1:0.9856)/ Gulf 1.00519+ INTUCH 1.07380 EGM voting : Friday 4 Oct IPO OKJ Bt 6.7/ Food/ SET
INVX Morning Call 1/10/2567 INVX 1/10/2567: Google investment in Thailand Benefit GULF ADVANC TRUE / WHA / DELTA/ GULF / SECURE : Sector Telecom Overweight Data Centre play from Google investment in Thailand Raised target price of ADVANC to Bt 300 fromBt 250 /TRUE to Bt 13.00 from Bt 11.50 : Sector Property Interest rate cut ( 0.25% on Oct16 and Dec.18,2567 and more 2 cut each 0.25% in 1H25 ) Prefer SIRI and AP vs tone down SPALI lower backlog and revenue .
INVX Morning Call 30/9/2567***Banking sector : 3 Q24 Earnings preview + KKP 3 Q24 Earnings +30% QoQ lower credit cost and larger equity investment gain vs - KBANK weak 3Q24 from less financial instrument gain and higher opex. Sector picks Prefer BBL KTB Outperform vs Neutral KBANK BAY KKP TCAP TISCO TTB***Property sector : Interest rate cut benefit / Earnings and Presales positive in 4Q24 and 2025 with Top picks are AP tp Bt 12.90 and SIRI upgrade to Outperform tp Bt 2.19***Stocks of the day Prefer CPALL and GULF *** GS Asia Pacific Weekly Kickstart : Flows Buy China +17% and North Asia with sector Buy Consumer vs Sell Bank*** Program Trading Buy BA AAV / STGT/ ERW/ BYD*** Factors to watch 1 Oct. Vayupak Fund starts buying 1-7 Oct 2567 China long holiday Golden Week3-11 Oct 2567 Vegetarian Festival 3Oct 2567 Gulf 1.00519 for INTUCH 1.07380 EGM meeting voting 4 Oct 2567 IPO OKJ Bt 6.70/ Food/ SET
INVX Morning Call 27/9/2567Today Healthcare sector Group/ MS Team 16.00Cautious SCGP weaker 3 Q24 Earnings with downside riskPrefer AP Upgrade to Outperform, raised target price from Bt 10.60 to Bt 12.90 and SIRI to SPALI weak backlog and earnings downside riskFx THB appreciation : Avoid TU GFPT CBG KCELimited or no impact :Commerce Bank Telecom Conmat Negative Agri Beverage Electronic Export TU GFPT KCE / Indirectly Tourism MINT Healthcare Benefit CPF BTG
INVX Morning Call 26/9/2567Fund Flows : Foreign net sell both Equity and TFEX GS targets Fx THB/USD at 32 vs 3 m Bt 33 and 12 m Bt 34 Strategy Overweight Commerce CPALL BJC HMPRO from Gov. Stimulus package เงินหมื่นฟื้นเศรษฐกิจ คาดหวัง ปลายปีนี้ อาจมีคนละครึ่งหรือยิ่งใช้ยิ่งได้Interest rate Cut : INVX คาดมีโอกาส ธปท อาจปรับลดดบ 16 ตค และ 18 ธค 2567 ครั้งละ 0.25% Positive Property Prefer AP SIRI SPALI Sector Rotation : Prefer Power GULF GPSC ( benefit THB appreciation/ Interest rate cut and Renew#2 Bidding) to Energy Oil( China long holidays 1-7 Oct2567)Key Factors1-7 Oct 2567 China Golden Week3-11 Oct 2567 Vegetarian Festival3 Oct 2567 Gulf and INTUCH EGM meeting4 Oct 2567 IPO OKJ Bt 6.70 listing in SET/Food
INVX 25/9/2567 : GS Fx THB/US$ 32 target short term vs 3 m Bt 33 and 12 m Bt 34Program Trading Buy PTTGC , SCGP, BSRC, IRPC, PSLChina Stimulus Package play : Flows Buy Energy Refinery Petrochem : INVX Prefer PTTEP PTT/ BCP TOP/ PTTGC IVL *** SCGP Flows Buy Shipping PSL RCL and STA STGT TEGH TRUBBFood sector Overweight with CPF Outperform ,sector picks tp Bt 29 and Outperform BTG. to Bt 28, GFPT tp Bt 16, TU tp Bt 18 ( 3 Q24 Earnings +y/+q and 4 Q24 better margin / Low season 3-11 Oct.24 Vegetarian Festival / benefit from interest rate cut/ no wage hike and limited Fx THB appreciation)Healthcare Overweight with sector picks BDMS BH CHGMkt Talk : Cautious THG WARRIX NUSA ACAP
INVX Morning Call 20/9/2567CPAXTT SP 20/9/2567 - 2 Oct 2567 ( Ek-Chai deal)CPAXT resumes trading on 3 Oct 2567FTSE Rebalancing effective todayHealthcare sector Overweight : 3Q Earnings high season and Medical Tourism play : BDMS Outperform tp 36,-2SD : Outperform BCH vs Neutral BH CHG RJH***Stocks of the day Prefer HANA and AWC
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