Podcasts about 2H

Ray discusses with Manpreet the investment theme for 2H 2025: a weaker USD. They explore specific segments in equities and bonds that are likely to benefit from this trend. The discussion ends with strategies for hedging and mitigating risks amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Read our report to find out more https://av.sc.com/corp-en/nr/content/docs/wm-global-market-outlook-positioning-for-a-weak-dollar-20-june-2025.pdf Speakers: - Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank - Manpreet Gill, CIO of Africa, Middle East & Europe (AME/E) and Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank 

Bienvenue dans 2h avec Cody et Hidan votre podcast hebdomadaire qui vous parle de l'actualité de la semaine catch, chaque samedi le duo vous propose une analyse des shows WWE de la semaine, des news et bien plus, le podcast est également à retrouver en podcast sur toutes les plateformes de podcast, on compte sur vous pour le partage le like. Vous pouvez soutenir le podcast en rejoignant la RebutFamily et devenir un membre soutien de la chaine en cliquant sur le bouton rejoindre. Ma nouvelle chaine Youtube : https://www.youtube.com/@MoiMoshetMéchant 00:00 - Intro musicale 12:00 - pas de chapitre je suis malade Me suivre : https://twitter.com/CodyMcWildOff https://twitter.com/ChezCodyMcWild Suivre Hidan : https://x.com/MonsieurHidan https://www.twitch.tv/monsieurhidan https://www.instagram.com/hidanstagram/ Les images utilisées dans ce podcast appartiennent à WWE. #WWE #Podcast #Catch Soutenez-nous sur PayPal !

As global markets brace for potential U.S. rate cuts and grapple with the return of Trump-era tariffs, ASEAN’s banking sector finds itself at a critical inflection point. With external shocks reshaping capital flows and trade patterns, what does this mean for bond issuance, liquidity, and the future of financial stability in the region? Dan Koh invites Rena Kwok, CFA, Senior Credit Analyst for Asian Financials at Bloomberg Intelligence to decode the key themes driving ASEAN banks in 2H 2025 — from regulatory headwinds and FX risk to where the opportunities may lie amid the noise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The structural dollar bearish case is holding into 2H, though fiscal considerations are what dollar bears may lean on going forward after  being driven mainly by tariff uncertainty and the impact on the de-dollarization narrative. Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the US debt dynamics and how the fiscal outlook could shape and drive the dollar view into 2H. Stuart and Audrey also touch on the narrow path to a potential dollar recovery via short-term cyclical dynamics should the US economy prove more resilient than expected. This isn't Bloomberg Intelligence's central working assumption, but it's a scenario worth acknowledging.

Quand est-ce qu'on doit arrêter sa marque de vêtements (ou son projet) ? On partage des réponses et on discute pendant presque 2H avec Ruben qui est bien placé pour en parler : Il a crée la marque la plus importante du monde de la trottinette : Mokovel. Et lui et ses potes ont décidé d'arrêter l'aventure au moment où le projet marchait le mieux.Mokovel a sorti un documentaire sur leur propre histoire et leur ultime collection de vêtements, une occasion de comprendre quand il a décidé d'arrêter, pourquoi, et les erreurs qu'il a fait sur son parcours pour que d'autres ne les répètent pas !Lien du documentaire : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIDDG95J_I8Lien de la dernière collection : https://chck.me/CwtsMokovel : https://www.instagram.com/mokovel/Ruben : https://www.instagram.com/ruben.mokoveli/En live tous les lundi, mercredi et vendredi matin sur https://twitch.tv/CaminoTV Rejoins le Discord Camino : https://discord.gg/ku8rCKkA

Wall Street closed higher again on Friday as investors overlooked disappointing consumer sentiment data and continued to welcome progress on the trade talk front between China and the U.S. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Friday and 5.3% for the week, the Nasdaq gained 0.52% on Friday and 7.2% for the week and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.78% and rose 3.4% for the week. The latest consumer sentiment reading out on Friday showed investor sentiment fell to the second lowest Level on record in the latest reading while consumer prices are also expected to rise 7.3% over the next year, up from reported 6.5% expected last month.Moody's downgraded the US credit rating on Friday though from AAA to AA1 citing concerns around rising US debt.Over in Europe on Friday, markets closed higher on Friday led by Germany's DAX rising 0.3% to another record high close, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.4%, the French CAC rose 0.42% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested weaker-than-expected GDP data with a 0.2% contraction reported over the March quarter. Japan's Nikkei closed flat on Friday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.46%, China's CSI index fell 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.21%. China's stocks were weighed down by Alibaba missing earnings expectations on Friday.Locally on Friday, the ASX ended the week at a 3-month high after Australian economic data and global investor sentiment boosted markets to strong gains throughout the week. The ASX posted a 0.56% gain on Friday led by REIT stocks jumping 2.3%.Stock specific news, Appen soared 18.7% on Friday after unveiling full-year revenue target of between $235m-$260m.Uranium miners came under pressure on Friday with Boss Energy, Deep Yellow and Paladin falling over 6% each.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is up 0.13% at US$62.57/barrel, gold is up 1.12% at US$3240/ounce and iron ore is down 0.34% at US$100.08/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.13 US cents, 93.04 Japanese Yen, 48.23 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.08%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Temple & Webster from $15.60 to $21.00 and maintain a hold rating on the leading online homewares retailer after the company released a 2H trading update to-date with revenue growth of 18% on the PCP and EBITDA margins toward the top end of guidance. The hold rating is maintained as growth to $21.00/share is in-line with Bell Potter's hold rating criteria.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on GR Engineering Services following the formation of a pattern over a period of 49-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.82 to the range of $3.30 to $3.40 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

durée : 00:30:12 - A votre service avec Nelly Sorbier et ses experts - Envie de dépaysement sans partir loin ? Découvrez les plus beaux coins de Drôme et Ardèche à 1h30 de chez vous, grâce aux conseils d'expertes du tourisme local.

Xiaomis HyperOS ohne Google Dienste? Laut Gerüchten arbeitet Xiaomi daran, sich von Google loszulösen. Sie agieren dabei wohl auch nicht allein und bekommen Unterstützer aus dem Heimatmarkt. Was erstmal sehr schockiert, könnte Realität werden, wenn auch viel dagegen spricht.HyperOS 3 ohne Google-Apps? Nicht nur Xiaomi bereitet sich auf Embargo vor ► https://www.china-gadgets.de/hyperos-3-ohne-google-apps-nicht-nur-xiaomi-bereitet-sich-auf-embargo-vor/Google is working on a big UI overhaul for Android: Here's an early look ► https://www.androidauthority.com/android-new-design-changes-leak-3549582/Leak: How and why Google made Material 3 Expressive ► https://9to5google.com/2025/05/05/material-3-expressive-leak/Google is finally building its own DeX: First look at Android's Desktop Mode ► https://www.androidauthority.com/android-desktop-mode-leak-3550321/2H25-2H27 New iPhone Model Launch Predictions; Budget Models in 1H, Premium Models in 2H as Emerging Norm ► https://mingchikuo.craft.me/9br1TonGnVzDPPApple iPhone 17 Air soll winzigen Akku durch neue Schutzhülle kompensieren ► https://www.notebookcheck.com/Apple-iPhone-17-Air-soll-winzigen-Akku-durch-neue-Schutzhuelle-kompensieren.1009943.0.htmlFoldable iPhone Said to Have Two Key Advantages ► https://www.macrumors.com/2025/05/05/foldable-iphone-two-key-advantages/realme 10000mAh concept phone ► https://x.com/realmeglobal/status/1919633226194419854realme 10000mAh concept phone Bild mit Batterie ► https://x.com/That_Kartikey/status/1919664533154509148Motorola Moto G56 5G leakt mit interessanter Updatepolitik ► https://x.com/evleaks/status/1919399217031762112Sony Xperia 1 VII runs Geekbench, confirming its chipset, RAM amount, and Android version ► https://www.gsmarena.com/sony_xperia_1_vii_runs_geekbench_confirming_its_chipset_ram_amount_and_android_version-news-67615.phpReport: Samsung will be making some Snapdragon 8 Elite 2nd gen chips on a 2nm node ► https://www.gsmarena.com/report_samsung_will_be_making_some_snapdragon_8_elite_2nd_gen_chips_on_a_2nm_node-news-67593.phpXiaomi Pad 7 Ultra is coming soon

MarketsMarkets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.S&P 500 16% off all time high.  5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%. CAPE Ratio still high at 33. Tesla“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”  Letter and FinancialsFSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San FranciscoModel Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeksWorld leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US. Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffsTesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chainThey will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-buttonMillions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next yearOptimusChina: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10Investor Call here on YouTubeWill spend less time at DOGEPlay 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?). Play at 20:20. 1000's of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).Play at 35:40 . Model Y's on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi's operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year. Play at 47:18.  “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn't see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road. Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW's. This is an Iphone moment.Elon: “Reality is most people won't buy cars in future”.  Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad. Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #'s 2-10 are Chinese companies.Conclusion:Buy the future

The Monetary Policy Committee decided on Thursday to cut policy rates by 225 basis points to 25% and 26% for overnight deposit and overnight lending rates respectively. The government is planning to replace many of the various fees charged by different entities with a single unified additional tax on net income, which aims to streamline the tax system and reduce the administrative burden on businesses. Saudi-owned agribusiness and Alkhorayef Group subsidiary Rakhaa for Agricultural Investment and Development is planning to list 30% of its shares on the EGX in a secondary offering in 2H 2025, Alkhorayef's Managing Director Abdullah Alkhorayef said.Chevron's Red Sea exit is now official, with statements from the US energy giant and the Oil Ministry confirming that it has withdrawn from its 45% stake in Red Sea Block 1, citing the lack of energy finds. The African Development Bank (AfDB) plans to funnel USD300 mn into Egypt's private sector this year, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said.More than 115 companies in the pharmaceutical and building materials sectors have submitted applications to the Industrial Development Authority to obtain financing totaling more than EGP8.5 billion, as part of the first phase of the initiative to finance priority industrial sectors at a 15% interest rate, according to officials from the Federation of Egyptian Industries.An official at the Ministry of Agriculture said that Egypt will not need to import sugar starting next year, after local production reached record-highs.COMI announced that it will cut interest rates on its savings accounts and its certificates of deposits (CDs) by 225 bps, starting today. MASR AGM approved the distribution of cash dividends of EGP0.25/share (DY of 5.5%) to be distributed over two installments in May and October 2025.EGCH resumes operations at its ferrosilicon plant in Aswan, following a five-year hiatus. 

Welcome dear listener to the latest episode. I'm Paul and I am joined by Justin and Daz. We will review the defeat at Fulham last weekend, look ahead to the West Ham game and then take a wider view, especially in the light of the news about Mo Salah's contract.Part One - Fulham away - xG 1.5 to 0.74 (2H 1.45 to 0.22). ‘Fantastic Fulham win'First half - terrible performance or a series of individual errors?Started bright, low point the ‘penalty' and the Konate error14 mins - Mac Allister with a long range shot - called that onexGOT was 1.34 for them - doesn't reflect well on KelleherTheir goals - slaps forehead:23 mins- Jones/Konate - hmm31 mins - Andy Robbo hat trick34 - Jota almost equalizes37 - VVD could have done better, but Ali probably saves itStephen Warnock. that Liverpool legend tells Virgil, it's not good enough. Usual Warnock bollocks in the commentarySecond half - chances, chances and more chances until 80 minutes:48 - Jota chance64 - Salah miss72 - Luis Diaz goal75 - Jones header79 - Elliott hits the bar (move stopped again with an offside that wasn't)91 - Chiesa chance92 - Elliott - needed it to be on his left footOverall:Subs brought on earlier? Bradley and Luis Diaz impactShape against man to man marking? Need speed.Part Two - West Ham United at home at 9:00AM ET on Sunday:‘Liverpool haven't played well in 2 months'Villa - Forest xG 3.03 to 1.48, Arsenal - Real Madrid 1.64 to 0.5Mo Salah loves playing against West Ham - Balon D'Or, contract, Ramadan..Line up, prediction'sPart Three - how do we reflect on such a disappointing season?Mo Salah - more in than outBig weekend for MamardashviliChampions League - we could have won this…PSG look really good, We will be back after the West Ham game. Thanks to Daz and Justin for joining me, Paul. And most of all, thank you dear listener for joining us. If you enjoyed the pod, please share it with a friend. Follow us @FirstStateKopites on Twitter  – we only tweet and retweet from sources we think are credible. Music is courtesy of Hypenotic – they are a Welsh electro-pop band – https://hyperfollow.com/hypenotic

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk CBB betting for the Sweet 16.

North American heavy-truck and engine producers face an increasingly uncertain regulatory, trade and economic backdrop in 2025. With the EPA planning to reconsider several heavy-truck regulations, there are growing risks to expectations of higher build rates in 2H and 2026. In this Talking Transports podcast, Brett Merritt, president of Cummins’ Engine Business, joins Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior transportation and logistics analyst, and Chris Ciolino, senior US machinery analyst, to share his insights about navigating the North American truck market during this pivotal time. Merritt also discusses alternative powertrain technologies, tariffs, order trends and how a native Hoosier ascended to lead Cummins’ Engine business.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Boros holds a Doctor of Medicine (M. D.) degree from the Albert Szent-Györgyi School of Medicine, Szeged, Hungary and is a retired Professor of Pediatrics, Endocrinology and Metabolism of the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Medicine. Dr. Boros is the co-inventor of the stable isotope-based dynamic metabolic profiling (SIDMAP) technology, which is a functional biochemistry tool used for detailed biochemical and deutenomics related drug testing, library screening, lead optimization and in vitro and in vivo phenotype profiling. The core technology involves studying natural and disease/drug induced variations in stable non-radiating stable 13C (carbon) and 2H (deuterium) isotope distribution patterns and cross talk among metabolites in living systems. He also established mitochondrial quantum vacuum as the prime driving force of all life related energy producing biochemical events. These occur via the quantum destabilization of hydrogen ions, i. e. protons, in structured water of mitochondrial nano-confinements that are compromised by deuterium; hence the regulation of deuterium (deutenomics, human deutenome project) is a critical process to maintain health and longevity.Dr. Boros trained as a house staff in his medical school in gastroenterology after receiving a research training fellowship from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.  Dr. Boros was a visiting Scholar at the Essen School of Medicine in Germany and also worked as a Research Scientist at the Ohio State University, Department of Surgery.  Dr. Boros is the recipient of the C. Williams Hall Outstanding Publication Award from the Academy of Surgical Research of the United States (1997), the Richard E. Weitzman Memorial Research Award from the University of California (2001), the Excellence in Clinical Research Award from the General Clinical Research Center at the Harbor-UCLA Medical Center (2004) and Public Health Impact Investigator Award of the United States Food and Drug Administration (2011).  Dr. Boros serves as an associate editor for the journals Springer Nature- Scientific Reports, Medicine, Pancreas, Molecules and Metabolomics.SHOWNOTES:

The Port of Los Angeles is a major gateway for freight moving in and out of the US, which is key to the regional and national economies. The pull-forward benefits from anticipated new US implemented tariffs, and a potential strike at US East Coast and Gulf ports, helped drive 19% volume growth in 2024. This year, comparisons will become more difficult and may result in low-double-digit declines in 2H. In this Talking Transports podcast, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, joins Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence senior transportation and logistics analyst, to share his insights about what’s over the horizon for North America’s busiest container port. Seroka also discusses the company’s emission goals, technology-driven productivity gains and how his career in shipping started with a plane ticket from his dad.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2H 2024 Netflix Watch Report shows the hours streamed were about the same as in 1H 2023. However, per-subscriber engagement is down 20%. Fewer titles and originals could be to blame.

Today we had the honor of welcoming back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Chairman of CERAWeek, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize” and more recently “The New Map.” He is widely recognized as one of the foremost experts on energy, geopolitics, and the global economy and his achievements and contributions to the energy industry are immense. We were delighted to have an hour of Dan's time to hear his latest insights on the evolving energy landscape and to preview key themes and discussions at CERAWeek, which is kicking off in just under two weeks. This Tuesday, Dan's paper, co-authored with Peter Orszag and Atul Arya, was published in Foreign Affairs titled “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” (linked here). Dan also recently co-authored an article titled “The importance of US LNG for economic growth and the global energy transition” (linked here). In our conversation with Dan, we explore key themes from both pieces, including the challenges of balancing energy security, economic growth, and the global energy transition. We ask Dan for his perspective on today's complex geopolitical environment, the influence of the current U.S. administration on energy and regulation, and global energy competition, including the divide between developed and developing nations, where economic growth and energy access remain a top priority. We touch on key topics and speakers at CERAWeek, including new discussions on trade and industrial policy, the future of aviation fuel, Saudi Aramco's experience with solar, and the growing momentum behind fusion energy, just to name a few. Dan shares insights into the historical context of today's energy transition, emphasizing that it is an energy addition rather than a transition, along with misconceptions about how transitions unfold and the evolving role of critical minerals in global energy policy. We discuss the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war, its implications for commodity markets and geopolitical strategy, and the broader complexities of managing volatility in today's rapidly shifting energy landscape. As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we appreciate his thoughtfulness and optimism for the future of energy. Thank you, Dan, for joining us! Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader equity markets seem to be entirely focused on AI-related news this week. He noted that rumors earlier this week that Microsoft was cancelling data center leases have slammed the stock prices of IPP & Electrical Providers. NVIDIA reports Q4 results after Wednesday's close, which will set the tone for equities (AI Tech & IPPs) through the end of the week. On the crude oil market front, over the last week WTI price has sunk ~$3/bbl ($69/bbl) on several factors, chief among them being growing optimism of a potential Ukrainian ceasefire. Offsetting this potentially bearish oil news is a growing belief that OPEC will delay April scheduled production increases to 2H'25. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that the focal story in Energy equities this week is BP's Capital Markets Day (set for Wednesday, details linked here). He noted that BP has previously indicated that the theme for their Capital Markets Day will be a “fundamental reset of strategy” and that investors aren't going to settle for small changes, rather, they're demanding a wholesale retreat from renewables, significant non-core asset sales and a total refocus on fossil fuels. Jeff Tillery also joined and

Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps HUGE Baseball Deal Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops - Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps - Baseball Deal - Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? Markets - Employment Report - This week's CPI and PPI Data - Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away - - Trump Limericks (AI) ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Regarding AMD - BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors: 1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and 2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales.  Shares are down 3%. Oracle Earnings - Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night. - The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters. - Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations. - The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected. - Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX. Google Chip - Releases the Willow quantum computing chip - Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete. - However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away. MLB Deal - The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history. - The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it's pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money. - The Mets will have the ability to void Soto's opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source. - In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million - Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average - In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight). China - Back in the Spotlight - Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops - China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November... - Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.

How are the largest VCs viewing the early stages of the AI Era, from the perspective of investment, technology moats, economics, early adoption and future use-cases.  SHOW: 879SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #879 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK: http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotwCHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST: "CLOUDCAST BASICS"SHOW NOTES:AI Eats the World (Presentation - Benedict Evans)IS SILICON VALLEY STILL THE CENTER OF TECH INNOVATION?Companies are investing tons of moneyBreakthrough results haven't emerged yet (business models, profits)It's not clear that there is a technology moat; but maybe a capital moatModel training costs are expected to rise 5x to 10x - worse economics??Lots of VC investment and vendor 2nd-order investmentsLLM costs are creating marginal cost of software (been since the mainframe)Model quality vs. price is improving, but price of the services (e.g. ChatGPT-Pro) is increasing - how much extra value is being delivered?How will open source impact AI? “If anything in life is certain, semiconductors are cyclical, commodity tech goes to marginal cost, and every new tech produces a bubble.”Today's GenAI question - is it accurate and useful? How can we tell, and how can it improve (or does it need to)?Start with a simple concept - AI gives us unlimited interns - how can you extrapolate that? How would this have been extrapolated for the original internet (create content, translate language, write code, etc.)Use cases are still not easy to see beyond Chatbots (and variants), Coding AssistantsConsulting revenue from GenAI is bigger than technology - and still most/many projects still in trials. Technology can take a long time to adopt - Cloud still only has 30% of workloads (15yrs old)66% of CEO's don't expect their first GenAI app in production until sometime in 2025, 50% at least 2H of 2025.[Shadow AI] SaaS AI will accelerate adoption, if it follows Cloud pattern - external forces are more motivated to attack business “change” than internal teams[Build vs. Ecosystem] Do the LLM vendors become the application vendors? Where does the LLM start and stop (infra, platform, API, apps, etc.)[Learning from the customers] Do the LLM vendors use their knowledge advantage to build the apps? GenAI Apps Categories - Make something better, Replace something, Just do the thing“AI is just whatever is wrong/broken now” - How well does AI understand “broken”Will people be the biggest problem in AI progress? [Decoupling] Looks at global markets for Internet today - ecommerce/retail, food delivery, advertising, media, autonomous driving, [Elevator Example] Automation gets rid of peopleNo real conclusionFEEDBACK?Email: show at the cloudcast dot netTwitter/X: @cloudcastpodBlueSky: @cloudcastpod.bsky.socialInstagram: @cloudcastpodTikTok: @cloudcastpod

OSN's full broadcast of Oregon men's basketball's 83-81 win over Alabama.Timestamps are approximate based on podcast player ads.TIP OFF/FIRST HALF 28:30SECOND HALF 1:32:162:30:00 - 2H 79-75 Barthelemy floater2:37:30 - 2H 83-81 Bittle putback jam w/ :04.4 left2:48:40 - Coach Mike Mennenga postgameSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

OSN's full broadcast of Oregon men's basketball's 80-70 win over Texas A&M.Timestamps are approximate based on podcast player ads.TIP OFF/FIRST HALF 36:30SECOND HALF 1:44:302:20:20 - 2H 54-58 Shelstad steal and layup2:26:20 - 2H 60-58 Angel 3-pointer2:42:00 - 2H 70-69 Bittle dunk2:56:10 - Final Call3:07 - Coach Mike Mennenga postgameSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome dear listener to the latest episode. I'm Paul and I am joined by Daz and Justin. The Reds beat Southampton 3-2 on Sunday and went 8 points clear at the top of the Premier League. Given the proximity of the Real Madrid and Man City games, we'll focus on the last game and consider how we should be reacting to this lead after almost 32% of the season. Maybe a word more on contract chat. Part One - Reds make hard work of beating the bottom team OR another game that we were always in control of (based on xG). Non penalty xG 0.49 to 2.36 (2H 0.26 vs 1.74) Starting line up - no Tsimikas or Trent, Luis Diaz and Mac Allister on the bench. First 30 minutes - controlled, lots of saves but not ones that should result in a goal - 9 shots Liverpool's pressing did not get the credit it deserved At 1-0, did we think this was going to be easy? - The over dribbling (one of which led to the penalty), the high risk passes. BTW such a poorly taken penalty. Some of the defending was a bit under-8s. See 2nd goal for evidence Mostly good from 1-2. Did Southampton try to defend the lead or were we just too good? Individual performances - Darwin, Robbo, Konate. International Break? Part Two - bigger picture  Players coming back - being done with the International break.  What should the reaction be going forward - nervousness, enjoyment? Feelings about the upcoming games? Watching City and Newcastle helped Feelings about City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Guardiola's contract? Salah - ‘I am more out than in'.  We will be back next week with a review of the Real Madrid and Man City games, and maybe some previews. Thanks to Daz and Justin for joining me, Paul. And most of all, thank you dear listener for joining us. If you enjoyed the pod, please share it with a friend. Follow us @FirstStateKopites on Twitter  – we only tweet and retweet from sources we think are credible. Music is courtesy of Hypenotic – they are a Welsh electro-pop band – https://hyperfollow.com/hypenotic

Rediffusion d'un des épisodes les plus écoutés du Podcast du Marketing.>> Rejoindre ma newsletter ! J'y partage chaque semaine le nouvel épisode, mais pas que... Je vous donne aussi les outils digitaux que j'utilise et TOUS les cadeaux bonus.Par où commencer ? Qu'est-ce que je dois faire ? Qu'est-ce que je dois faire en premier ? J'ai mille idées mais comment savoir quoi prioriser ? Comment est-ce que je fais pour me rendre visible ? Ce sont les questions qui reviennent le plus souvent quand je demande aux indépendants autour de moi quel est leur plus grosse difficulté avec le marketing digital.   Alors aujourd'hui je vous propose de faire un tour d'horizon de ce que c'est que le marketing digital, et surtout par où commencer quand on veut se lancer. Je vous donne ma vision, ce que moi je ferais si je devais lancer une nouvelle activité aujourd'hui, et surtout par où je commencerais. Je vous parle des 3 raisons pour lesquels il faut impérativement travailler son marketing digital. Je vous donne ma définition du marketing digitalEt surtout je vous dis quelles sont les 3 actions par lesquelles je commencerais si je devais lancer une nouvelle activité aujourd'hui.Les épisodes évoqués : - Choisir le bon lead magnet - Comment créer un site internet 1/2- Comment créer un site internet 2/2Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

In this episode, we sit down with the legendary Deborah Meaden to dive into her incredible entrepreneurial journey—from her early days starting up in business to becoming a household name on Dragons' Den. Deborah shares candid stories from her time on the show, offers invaluable tips for aspiring entrepreneurs, and reveals key lessons she's learned along the way. We also explore her passion project: a brand-new book aimed at teaching kids about money management at a young age. If you're looking for inspiration, business advice, or insights into how to empower the next generation, this conversation is a must-watch! ——————— Sign up to Wise Business banking: https://wise.com/gb/business/?utm_source=secretleaders&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=secret+leaders_2H+2024&utm_content=Wise+Business Thanks to HP our sponsor for this episode. For 10% off the HP Omnibook UltraFlip with built-in AI, use code 'HPLOVEWORK'. Valid until 31st January 2025, UK only. T&Cs apply. https://bit.ly/HPOmnibook-SLQ424 Join Vanta and recieve $1000 off: http://vanta.com/secretleaders Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Timo Boldt's journey to turning Gousto into a billion-dollar company is a remarkable tale of resilience. Despite facing rejection on Dragons' Den, Timo founded Gousto in 2012 from his one-bedroom flat with a vision to revolutionize home cooking using technology and data. Today, the meal kit delivery service delivers over 1.5 million meals each month, showcasing significant growth potential in a market projected to reach $27.33 billion by 2028. In this interview, Timo shares insights on his transition from finance to food tech, the impact of AI on personalizing food choices, and the future of home cooking in an age of convenience. Join us as we explore the challenges of scaling a startup and Timo's vision for the evolving food industry! ——————— Sign up to Wise Business banking: https://wise.com/gb/business/?utm_source=secretleaders&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=secret+leaders_2H+2024&utm_content=Wise+Business For 10% off the HP Omnibook UltraFlip with built-in AI, use code 'HPLOVEWORK'. Valid until 31st January 2025, UK only. T&Cs apply. https://bit.ly/HPOmnibook-SLQ424 Join Vanta and recieve $1000 off: http://vanta.com/secretleaders And a special thanks to Qube for letting us use their incredible podcast studio in Canary Wharf, London to film this episode. Mention “Secret Leaders” as a referral to waiter the joining fee: https://theqube.com/membership/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this exclusive interview, WeTransfer founder Damian Bradfield shares the story behind his 9-figure exit and breaks down how he built a brand that millions of people around the world trust every day.  Damian reveals the real strategies he used to scale WeTransfer from a simple idea to a global sensation—PLUS, he drops actionable tips you can use to build and sell your own brand. ——————— Sign up to Wise Business banking: https://wise.com/gb/business/?utm_source=secretleaders&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=secret+leaders_2H+2024&utm_content=Wise+Business Join Vanta and recieve $1000 off: http://vanta.com/secretleaders And a special thanks to PodShop for letting us use their incredible podcast studio in Shoreditch, London to film this episode. Check out their studios and for 25% off your first booking at Podshop Studios when booked online using code SECRET25 - https://www.podshoponline.co.uk/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paul and Justin discuss how they feel about a group of 2H surgers for next yr including Corbin Carroll, Gavin Lux, Michael Harris II, Spencer Torkelson, and more! Source

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Ariel's Manhattan experts Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner; Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, about what they're seeing in the Manhattan market. They discuss how mortgage maturities are driving transactions, the increase in rent stabilized multifamily sales, condo development trends, office to residential conversions and housing policies including the City of Yes.According to Ariel Property Advisors' Manhattan 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in Manhattan in 1H 2024 rose to $5.8 billion over 167 transactions, a 14% and 16% increase, respectively, compared to 2H 2023, Average pricing for multifamily properties dropped by 15% from $722/SF in 2023 to $611/SF in 1H 2024, while average cap rates increased from 5.24% to 6.19%. The report showed that development sales totaled $1.12 billion in 1H 2024, a 128% increase from 2H 2023, and transactions totaled 28, an 115% increase over this period. Office to residential conversions accounted for approximately 50% of the development dollar volume. 

Welcome back to another episode of Benched with Bubba. On BwB EP 688, Bubba (@bdentrek) will be joined by Ben Tidd (@BreakingBen_T) to recap the Week 26 FAAB, go over some big 2H offensive performers, and more. Some Players Discussed- Jacob deGrom Kumar Rocker Tylor Megill Reid Detmers Jasson Dominguez Albert Suarez Luke Weaver Many More

“Quand ça ne te demande pas d'efforts, mets en plus”“Je n'ai pas eu le choix d'être entrepreneur” Lui, c'est Thomas Fagot, l'entrepreneur au parcours atypique : celui qui tombe, se relève et recommence. Pour lui, toucher le fond, c'est 2H maximum. Ensuite, on remonte et on avance. MobSuccess, c'est une plateforme spécialisée dans la publicité mobile, conçue pour optimiser les campagnes marketing et maximiser l'engagement et les performances.Opportuniste des bonnes opportunités, Thomas revient sur son parcours, une jeunesse que certains qualifieraient de “malchanceuse” mais qu'il voit avec optimisme. Il partage comment il est tombé dans l'entrepreneuriat, non par choix, mais par nécessité, et retrace la success story de MobSuccess, marquée par une rencontre décisive avec le géant GIFi.Bonne écoute !

EXTRAIT“Je n'ai pas eu le choix d'être entrepreneur”Lui, c'est Thomas Fagot, l'entrepreneur au parcours atypique : celui qui tombe, se relève et recommence. Pour lui, toucher le fond, c'est 2H maximum. Ensuite, on remonte et on avance. MobSuccess, c'est une plateforme spécialisée dans la publicité mobile, conçue pour optimiser les campagnes marketing et maximiser l'engagement et les performances.Petit extrait pour vous donner un avant-goût de notre échange.

Un amigo me dijo que no hay que dar nada por sabido… ¿En qué se diferencia un SUV de un verdadero TT? A mí me parece evidente, pero por lo que me comentáis y por lo que oigo, no tanto. Así que vamos a verlo en detalle. Este será un vídeo lleno de anécdotas. Ya sabéis mi opinión sobre los SUV y no me voy a extender sobre el tema: Salvo por su facilidad de acceso y, a veces, por su mayor altura, tienen muchas desventajas sobre un buen Break o un coche convencional. Pero hoy el video no va de eso, sino que vamos a comparar a los SUV con los auténticos TT… esos de los que apenas quedan. Pero antes de comenzar vamos a ver de qué estamos hablando. ¿Qué es un SUV? Este es uno de esos casos en que el nombre, lejos de simplificar las cosas, las complica. Si buscas el significado de SUV en Google te dirá que significa “Sport Utility Vehicle”. Vale. Sigamos con Google y ponemos en el traductor “inglés-español” que nos traduzca esas tres palabras y te va a aparecer esto: “Vehículo Utilitario Deportivo” Pero… ¡de que estamos hablando! ¿Utilitario y deportivo? Imposible. Pero con Google, para bien o para mal, está todo. Vamos a ver que significa Sport en inglés, que no es tan evidente como os pueda parecer. El diccionario de Cambridge, en su segunda acepción nos dice que sport es “todo tipo de actividad física que las personas realizan para mantenerse saludables o por placer”. Ya nos estamos entendiendo. Así que la palabra Sport de SUV no se refiere al coche, si no al estilo de vida de sus usuarios… O sea que son coches útiles para personas que hacen una vida muy activa y practican deportes, algunos de los cuales requieren cierta capacidad de carga o el acceso a vías no asfaltadas. Esto es un SUV, que no te engañen. Coches relativamente grandes, con buena capacidad de carga, estética “agresivo-aventurera”, una altura mayor de lo normal y poco más. Porque para ser un SUV no necesitas necesariamente tener tracción total… de hecho la mayoría no la llevan. ¿Qué es un Todo Terreno? Así da gusto, en este caso no hay complicación de ningún tipo: Un coche de Todo Terreno es aquel que puede moverse por toto tipo de terreno. ¡Que fácil! En este caso no necesitamos ni a Google ni a la Universidad de Cambridge… me gusta lo simple. Sí me permitiría hacer un matiz importante: Moverse por todo tipo de terreno con solvencia requiere, además que esa actividad no arruine el coche. O sea, que sea un vehículo capaz de andar por caminos y zonas complicadas sin que eso suponga problemas mecánicos… esto es relevante, como os voy a explicar en una anécdota que sucedió en Marruecos y que os voy a contar… pero más adelante. TT más que SUV. Como un TT es “más” coche, más complejo, más caro a igualdad de categoría y en general con “más cosas” vamos a ver que tiene que tener un coche para ser un TT. Vamos allá. Chasis separado: Muy recomendable. Hay coches de TT con buena reputación que no llevan chasis separado, sino que son monocasco, es decir, que la propia carrocería es el chasis. Son excepciones que confirman la regla. Los dos más destacados son el Lada Niva y el Jeep Cherokee. Que no son malos TT, en especial el Lada. Pero tampoco son los TT más robustos del “Mundo mundial”. Ni muchos menos. Tracción total: Imprescindible. “El hábito no hace al monje”. Es decir, la tracción total no convierte a un coche, aunque sea un SUV, en TT. Se podría decir que es una condición necesaria, pero no suficiente. Para moverse por terrenos resbaladizos, como barro, tierra, nieve o hielo, sobre todo si hay pendientes, la tracción total es ab-so-lu-ta-men-te imprescindible. Bloqueo de diferenciales: La clave. Un diferencial permite a una rueda girar más y más rápido que otra, pero en condiciones de escasa adherencia una rueda patina y la otra “agarra” … toda la potencia se va por la que patina. Lo mismo puede pasar de un eje a otro. Hay que “bloquearlos”. Reductora: Lo que discrimina. Para mí es lo que de verdad discrimina es tener o no caja reductora. Y muchos os preguntareis, ¿Qué es eso de caja reductora? 2H, 4H, 4L… ¡qué lio! Si conducís un TT “de verdad” os encontraréis con dos palancas. Una es la habitual, con 5 o 6 marchas, incluso puede ser automático. Y la otra es la reductora, que puede tener dos o tres posiciones. ¡Ojo! hay coches de TT pueden llevar tres palancas! Una será la convencional, otra para conectar la tracción total y otra para elegir entre cortas y largas. SUV: Las desventajas de un TT… … sin sus ventajas. Siempre sigo lo mismo: Un SUV tiene muchas de las desventajas de un TT como mayor altura de centro de gravedad, mayor peso y peor aerodinámica, entre otras… pero sin prácticamente ninguna de sus ventajas. Insisto, los SUV tienen ventajas para acceder a su interior y, en ocasiones, las que provienen de una mayor altura del chasis al suelo… y poco o nada más. Porque el conducir más alto, más que una ventaja, puede llegar a ser un inconveniente, como ya dije en el video titulado “Odio los SUV” y su secuela “Odio los SUV… peeeero”. Conclusión. Lo digo siempre: Amo está afición porque hay muchas formas de vivirla, puede participar en competición, pasear por la sierra con un clásico, ver rallyes, circuitos, hacer algo de mecánica, modelismo… mil formas… es lo que me gusta. Así que, si te gustan los SUV y disfrutas con él, ¡genial! No voy a ser yo quien te diga que estas equivocado. Pero eso sí, no me digas que es más seguro o que es “casi” un TT porque ambas cosas no son ciertas… Coche del día. Soy un absoluto fan de los Suzuki Jimny, de todos. Como ya os comenté en la serie de videos cobre todos los coches que he tenido, que son tres entregas, de todos, absolutamente de todos, me dio pena desprenderme. Pero hay uno del que estoy particularmente arrepentido, mi Suzuki Jimny TD. No me dio ni un solo problema, gastaba poco, era divertido de conducir, en campo imbatible, para mi preciosos… ¡qué pena! Lo vendí por culpa de mi divorcio… pero cada vez que veo uno de estos coches me acuerdo y me arrepiento.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel's Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Brooklyn experts Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos. Overall, investment sales in Brooklyn rose to $3.36 billion in 1H 2024, a 43% increase compared to 2H 2023 and 18% increase compared to 1H 2023. In the multifamily market, Mr. Vorvolakos said owners are adjusting their pricing, which is creating opportunities for investors. The average cap rate rose to 6.48% in 1H 2024, the highest level since 2012, which can be attributed to elevated interest rates and uncertainty about new regulations. In the development market, Mr. Kelly said the new 485x tax incentive, the successor to 421a, is breathing new life back into the development market. Also, local developers are partnering with institutional capital and building farther into the borough. More details about the Brooklyn market are available in the Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

As we edge closer to a US Federal Reserve rate decision and a presidential election, municipal credit will get more attention. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Jennifer Johnston, director of research, municipal bonds, at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. She discusses how technology enhances credit research and why tax policy, slowing tax collections, falling revenues and pressured hospital margins are among areas of concern in 2H and beyond.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses the findings in Ariel's Mid-Year Bronx report with Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director. Overall, the dollar volume of investment sales in the Bronx rose 13% to $445 million in 1H 2024 compared to 2H 2023, according to Ariel's Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report. Transactions fell 10% to 90 for this period. Compared to 2H 2023, multifamily dollar volume increased by 38% in 1H 2024 from 2H 2023 for a total of $208.5 million. Transaction volume declined by three transactions to 36 over the same period. A total of 33 development site transactions were recorded in the first six months of 2024 totaling $166.4 million, which marked a 50% and 86% increase, respectively, compared to H2 2023. The podcast participants noted that development is expected to increase in the Bronx because of the 485x tax abatement, which was part of the new housing policy, and a major rezoning in the Bronx, which is expected to produce new housing along 46 blocks surrounding the new Metro North stations in the Parkchester, Van Nest, and Morris Park neighborhoods. More information is available in the Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

They may not be major stories, but these 5 headlines will play an important role in how AI and the Cloud evolve in the 2H of 2024. SHOW: 846SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #846 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK - http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotwCHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST - "CLOUDCAST BASICS"SHOW NOTES:VCs are looking to get out (Business Insider)Microsoft earnings (31%), Google earnings (29%), Amazon earnings (19%) - QtoQ earnings for the hyperscalersTHE ECONOMY WILL BE THE STORY OF 2H 2024 DUE TO THE US ELECTIONSBUT WILL ANY OF THESE OTHER STORIES GET THE ATTENTION THEY DESERVE?Are VCs going to be out on AI startups?Will tech antitrust discussions become prominent in the US elections? When will we start seeing all the early-2024 AI demos turn into reality?How much are the hyperscale cloud earnings boosted by AI spend vs. usage?Will any alternatives to VMware start to show progress in displacing the virtualization leader?FEEDBACK?Email: show at the cloudcast dot netTwitter: @cloudcastpodInstagram: @cloudcastpodTikTok: @cloudcastpod

Today we were pleased to host Gerald Kepes, President of Competitive Energy Strategies, and Sudan Maccio, Chief Legal Counsel of PetroTal, for a discussion focused on Venezuelan politics, energy and economics. Jerry has over 40 years of experience as a consultant and petroleum geologist and is a regular contributor to Al-Monitor on the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan started his career at PDVSA and brings over 30 years of extensive legal experience in global energy across legal, commercial, and leadership roles. We were thrilled to bring Jerry and Sudan together to discuss the recent Venezuelan election. In our conversation, Jerry and Sudan provide an overview of the recent election and the country's opposition to President Maduro's claimed victory. We discuss the current situation on the ground with ongoing protests, reactions from neighboring countries, the refugee crisis, how the military has been corrupted to support the ruling party and the potential for shifts in loyalty, and how the crisis is influencing global markets. We explore other geopolitical crises to understand potential strategy and outcomes, the possibilities and implications of foreign intervention, and influence from outside actors including Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. We also examine the role of the US in potentially intervening, possible outcomes, long-term implications, and much more. We ended by discussing how we can help the citizens of Venezuela and amplify their humanitarian needs. It was an enlightening discussion, and we are thankful to Jerry and Sudan for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that U.S. markets, so far this week, are mostly in churn-mode and laser focused on Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. Bond traders expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged but are hopeful Chairman Powell will indicate that the FED could be positioned, as early as September, to cut interest rates. WTI price has moved lower over the last few weeks due to growing fundamental concerns with 2H'24 oil demand (mostly slowing Chinese demand) but has plunged this week to ~$75/bbl mostly due to “technical” factors (Brent & WTI) breaking through 50/100/200 day moving averages which is leading to an unwind of “net” long interest in the crude complex. On the broader market front, he noted a continued rotation of AI/Big Tech names into the Russell 2000 due to a growing bet that the FED will be signaling a looser interest rate policy. The recent equity rotation could quickly unwind if the FED doesn't signal a looser interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He also noted Q2 reporting up to this point has been dominated by Oil Services and natural-gas levered E&Ps but is now broadening out to all energy subsectors. He flagged a few key themes coming from Q2 calls including lower onshore oil service activity levels, a continuation of natural gas curtailments, and U.S. refiners highlighting that weaker refining cracks are resulting in global refining run cuts. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion. We hope you find the discussion as insightful as we did. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Venezuelan people and we are hopeful for a peaceful and democratic resolution. Our best to you all. Thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. David Gattie, Associate Professor of Engineering at the University of Georgia. In addition to his role in the College of Engineering, David is a Senior Fellow at the University's Center for International Trade and Security. David has a robust background including 18 years at the University of Georgia and 15 years in the energy private sector across production engineering, energy services engineering, and environmental engineering. His research focuses on the electric power sector, with an emphasis on comprehensive energy policy and integrated resource planning for overall energy and economic security, as well as national security. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our discussion, David provides an overview of Georgia's unique energy landscape and power generation focus. He explains Georgia's approach to long-term energy planning through integrated resource plans mandated every three years, the structure of Georgia's energy sector, the role of the Public Service Commission, and the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the state's long-term energy strategy. We explore Georgia's choice to maintain a regulated market rather than deregulating, the effectiveness of various market systems, trends in regulated versus deregulated markets, and the potential risks of an energy transition that neglects national security and industrial competitiveness. David also discusses the Center for International Trade and Security's efforts, including training students to become strategic thinkers with expertise in nuclear technology and energy security, as well as collaborating with key organizations and experts in the field. We cover the role of trade in maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts, the expected increase in electricity demand, commercial viability and government involvement in nuclear development, optimism for realistic energy policies, and more. As you'll hear, it was a meaty conversation and David was a fantastic guest with which to explore these important topics. David's full presentation including the slides referenced in our discussion is linked here. For additional reading, David's recent report entitled “Competitive Advantage as a National Security Objective for US Civilian Nuclear Power Policy” is linked here. Additionally, if you are interested in reading the book David recommends during the show, “The Lessons of Tragedy” is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that it's been a wild week for Presidential politics, which is introducing some added uncertainty to global markets. He noted there could be some increased volatility in the bond market at week's end when Consumer Confidence and the PCE deflator are set to report. On the crude oil front, WTI price has plunged by ~$2.50/bbl (~$77.50/bbl) so far this week due to WTI price breaking through its 50/100/200 day moving averages and growing concern that Chinese commodity demand is slowing. On the energy equity front, Q2 reporting started last week and was skewed towards Oil Services. This week will also be heavy Oil Services but will also be broadening out to gas-levered E&Ps, Canadian E&Ps, Miners, Euro Oil Majors, Refiners and Electric Utilities. He also noted that equity investors will be paying a lot of attention to gas-levered E&P calls this week to get a sense of how they're thinking about 2H'24/2025 gas price levels/direction and how that might influence their 2H'24 capex/guidance plans. Jeff Tillery added to Mike's comments on oilfield services earnin

BlackRock's Kristy Akullian discusses investing strategies for 2H 2024 (1:30) - What Should Investors Expect From The Economy Going Forward? (10:50) - How Should You Position Your Portfolio Heading Into The Upcoming Election? (16:40) - Where Should Investors Be Looking To Gain Exposure To AI Investments? (20:05) - Why Have Actively Managed ETFs Surged In Popularity? (26:10) - Episode Roundup: QUAL, DYNF, IETC, MADE, SOXX, IDU Podcast@Zacks.com

Episode 134: Dr. Anas, Energy Market Expert, TAKE 3! Let's go under the hood and find out what is really going on in the energy markets with world renowned energy markets expert, Dr. Anas Alhajji, managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC. There is a lot of misinformation in the oil and energy markets so Dr. Anas will be clarifying and dispelling the exaggerations and myths created by the media and other interested parties. We speak on the following important issues: expose myths on recent energy news, current state of energy markets, energy demand, peak oil demand, green energy, EVs, and more. Be in the know with what is really going on in energy markets. What will 2H 2024 and 2025 bring for oil and energy prices? Find out now

After a bullish first half for stocks, David Faber, Leslie Picker and Mike explored what to expect from the markets as we enter the second half of 2024. They discussed the AI-fueled tech sector rally, the moves in Nvidia versus Treasury yields -- and whether or not we could see a broader rally for the rest of this year. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives joined eth anchors at Post 9 with his 2H forecast for tech. Also focus: Boeing agrees to acquire Spirit AeroSystems for $4.7 billion in stock, 'why "Roaring Kitty" sparked a 20% jump in Chewy shares before gains were erased, banks boosting dividends, countdown to the Supreme Court ruling on Trump immunity case. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

We discuss the market outlook and investing ideas for 2H 2024 (0:45) - Breaking Down The Market Rally: What Should We Expect From the Fed And Earnings? (7:45) - What Stocks And Industries Should Investors Keep On Their Radar Right Now? (12:00) - How Much Will Copper and Uranium Benefit From The AI Rally? (18:05) - Should You Be Buying ETFs that Implement Option Strategies? (24:00) - Episode Roundup: NVDA, MSFT, AMD, QQQM, QTUM, LLY, NVO, URNM, COPX, QQQY Podcast@Zacks.com

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, Antonin Delair, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the the main macro FX themes for 2H. They highlight a constructive USD backdrop, yield compression, US elections and policy RV as the main themes.   This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Season 3 Episode 17 Live from Charolais Jr Nationals in Belton, Texas with special guest Braden House, Big House Show Cattle of Iola, Texas, and Dale Hecht, 2H cattle , of Paynesville, Minnesota.

Second-quarter earnings reports could show that the worst is behind freight transportation and logistics companies that may see muted progress heading into 2H. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence's Talking Transports podcast, Evercore ISI's senior managing director and surface and marine transportation equity analyst Jon Chappell joins Lee Klaskow, BI senior transportation and logistics analyst, to share his thoughts on what investors could expect from quarterly reports and for the rest of the year. Market disruptions like the Red Sea crisis and failure of Yellow have benefited tanker and less-than-truckload companies, which has added to his positive pricing thesis. He also talks about growth prospects for intermodal, nearshoring and some of his favorite names in his coverage universe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss the market outlook and investing strategies for 2H 2024 (1:30) - Did Investors Miss The Fed's Soft Landing? (6:00) - What Should We Expect From Interest Rates The Remaining of The Year? (9:20) - Will The Stock Market Rally Continue? (14:55) - Could We See Small Cap Stocks Outperform Later In The Year? (17:35) - How Can Investors Optimize Their Income Portfolio? (23:15) - Episode Roundup: XNTK, QQQE, SBSM, IJR, GLD, GLDM, SRLN Podcast@Zacks.com

Today we were delighted to host Matt Parker, Managing Director and Head of Strategy, alongside Alex Melvin, Commodity Risk Analyst, with Mobius Risk Group for an extensive discussion on commodity and power markets, as well as volatility and risk management in particular. Matt joined Mobius in 2018 and oversees fundamental analytics, decision strategies, financial trading, and physical marketing teams. Alex is the author of Mobius' Intel Briefs and Energy Shots research and brings prior experience in data analysis and technical writing. Mobius Risk Group is a risk advisory firm offering market guidance to producers, consumers, and capital market participants, influencing transactions totaling over $100B across more than 50 commodities annually. We were thrilled to visit with Matt and Alex. The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report Mobius recently released titled “Eclipse Power Prices Hit $471/MWh: Tracking the Texas grid during the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse” (linked here). Matt and Alex first share background on the Mobius team and their research, natural gas market volatility and its impact on hedging strategies for producers and consumers, and the role of speculators in commodity markets and the influence on pricing dynamics. We explore factors influencing the growth of LNG markets and its implications for energy markets, the challenges and opportunities in renewable energy variability and its impact on grid stability, and regional energy market dynamics, including the reluctance to build pipelines and storage facilities on the West and East Coasts of the US. We discuss key themes from the Eclipse report including the inspiration behind writing the report, storage dynamics and the impact of gas prices on production, the potential shift towards LNG as a solution to market imbalances, the effectiveness of market mechanisms versus centralized control in addressing energy challenges, how consumers are adapting to increased volatility in gas prices, efforts by gas producers to manage volatility in prices and production decisions, the potential for increased gas exports to Mexico, risk management strategy differences between public and private companies, and much more. Thanks to Matt and Alex for joining us today! Mike Bradley started the show by highlighting this week's spike in the 10-year government bond yield to ~4.65%, mostly due to a hot Retail Sales report on Monday. He noted the next big economic report will be Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and if that report prints hotter than expected, odds for a rate cut (anytime soon) would appear very low. On the commodity front, Brent (~$90/bbl) & WTI (~$85/bbl) prices barely budged on the recent Iranian/Israeli conflict, mostly because it was pretty well announced, and to a certain degree already dialed into oil prices. A 2H'24 global oil S/D deficit could position OPEC to begin adding back barrels into the market, potentially as early as June. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from interest rate volatility, potential additional Mideast conflict, and Q1 EPS results. Q1 earnings season has begun (with mixed results) and it's important, given lofty valuations, that S&P companies deliver solid Q1 results and guidance. He ended by flagging that Q1 energy results begin this week with Kinder Morgan and Liberty Energy reporting on Wednesday and SLB on Friday. Liberty Energy should provide investors with an early glimpse of U.S. pressure pumping dynamics while the SLB call should be predominately focused on international and offshore growth. Todd Scruggs emphasized recent analysis from Mobius regarding global coal generation, particularly in China, India, and Indonesia, and compared it to renewable energy development in the US. Globally, approximately 50 GW of coal capacity was added, while the US saw an addition of around 30

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country's fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya's insights on this very important and very complex subject. In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public's attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders' refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct'23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H'24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H'24 crude oil setup, we're a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy's weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Derek Podhaizer, Vice President of Equity Research at Barclays. Derek started his research career at the firm in 2014 and leads coverage of U.S. Onshore Energy Services and Geothermal. Given the recent flurry of activity within the services sector, including Tuesday's SLB-ChampionX announcement (linked here), it was fantastic to hear Derek's observations on the space including overall investor sentiment, emerging trends in services and geothermal, and investor perception and feedback. In our conversation with Derek, we discuss the significant changes in energy services over the past decade, transitioning from a boom-and-bust cycle to a focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns, M&A themes driving consolidation in the oilfield services sector, primarily driven by supply rationalization and synergistic services, and the importance of cultural integration in M&A transactions. Derek shares current trends including emerging and growing power solutions businesses, growing interest in geothermal energy among oilfield service companies, the potential for a divergent market in companies providing integrated solutions compared to others, and how total cost of ownership and efficiency drives investor confidence and differentiation among service providers. We discuss long-term value creation in energy services, Barclay's research department and coverage, technological advances and production efficiencies, excitement for the potential of geothermal energy to become a significant contributor to the energy mix, investor interest in geothermal, and more. We ended by asking Derek for his thoughts on the state of the energy transition discussion from his vantage point in New York. Thank you for joining, Derek! Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that Monday's ISM Manufacturing report and Tuesday's JOLTS Job Openings reports both surpassed expectations, which pushed the 10-year government bond yield to a YTD high of ~4.35%. He noted the current consensus for multiple interest rate cuts (starting in June) is getting challenged by recent strong economic prints, continued record U.S. budget deficits, strengthening energy commodities and accelerating future power demand growth. WTI is trading at ~$85/bbl, marking its highest level since October 2023 and crude oil is continuing to show signs of real physical tightness as WTI time spreads are trading at their steepest level of backwardation since June 2022. OPEC is meeting this Wednesday and most traders expect them to signal continued production constraint through Q2'24. He further noted that OPEC looks to be in full control of crude markets and that the global oil S/D setup looks very constructive heading into 2H'24, both of which should position OPEC to add barrels into an undersupplied global oil market in 2H'24. On the broader equity market front, over the last few days markets have been pressured due to an unexpected surge in interest rates. Tesla was also weighing on markets due to its disappointing Q1 deliveries and providing further proof that U.S. electric vehicle sales are facing some temporary demand headwinds. He ended by highlighting SLB's agreement to buy ChampionX in an all-stock deal and also noted the solid YTD performance of Oil Services. Jeff Tillery noted the unique dynamics of M&A in energy services and the operational intricacies involved, segueing into our conversation with Derek. It was great luck to have Derek on a day when a major transaction was announced in oilfield services. The OFS space remains super intriguing for its ability to range across classic as well as new energy technologies. We look forward to staying in touch with Derek and thank you, as always, for your friendship!

EP316 - Annual Predictions 2024  Jason visited the Walmart Neighborhood Market in Pea Ridge, Arkansas featuring drone delivery. Here is a video for those interested. 2023 Predictions Recap Jason: At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) Yes BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. No Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network Yes Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. No Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US) Yes Jason Total Score: 3 of 5 Scot: Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping. Yes Shopify is acquired No An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it's adopted and how cool it is. Yes E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates. Yes Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery. Yes Scot Total Score: 4 of 5 Trends revert to the mean, and Scot is back on Top! 2024 Predictions Jason: Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). Bonus: Live-steaming, MetaVerse, Crypto still not a major thing in e-commerce; Management stops blaming performance on retail crime; and Smaller RMN's fail. Scot: Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM Temu falters as people realize it's wish 2.0 RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) Instacart who's stock IPO'd at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead – materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 316 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 11th, 2024. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show. This is episode 316 being recorded on Thursday, January 11th. I'm your host, Jason Retail Geek Goldberg. And as usual, I'm here with your co-host, Scott Wingo. go. Scot: [0:39] Hey, Jason, and welcome back. Jason and Scott show listeners. Well, folks, this is one of our most popular shows of the year. This is our Jason and Scott annual prediction show. This is where being an audio podcast really works against us. You can't see us, but Jason, I normally wear leisure wear when we record the podcast, but tonight we're wearing tuxedos. Jason, I really like that cummerbund. It looks really good on you. Jason: [1:04] Thanks. Scot: [1:04] I feel like you've really elevated elevated your game this year the the suede tuxedo really suits you thanks thanks and the extra glitter on the bow tie was my daughter's influence smart the the 17 year old touch as you can never have enough glitter that is literally what she says half the time so yeah this is the show where we make we kind of self-score last year's predictions which would have been the predictions we made this time last year early January for 2023 and then we make new ones for this year the 2024 2024 predictions but before we jump into that Jason we're recording this on the Eve of nrf big show and I know that's a huge show for you it's now I think it's expanded it's always a fun weekend show which I've always appreciated that that was sarcasm and then I think they've extended it you know I think it was like what was it Saturday Sunday Monday and now there's like a Tuesday and then there's pre-days and post days so it's like a whole it's like a whole month of nrf big show are Are you teed up and energized and ready to go? Jason: [2:06] Yeah, and I feel like if all those things weren't exciting enough, you know, it's like 113 years old, and it's always over a holiday, Martin Luther King Day, and it always draws a blizzard, like either on the first day or the last day. And so this year, maybe we'll get both. Scot: [2:22] Yeah, yeah, and it's always fun. And it used to be there was nothing down in that part of New York, and now at least they have, what's that thing called? Hudson Yard or whatever. Jason: [2:29] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I feel like Manhattan has grown up around Javits a little bit. So you are definitely right. I have clients and partners with offices that are now walking distance from the show. And Hudson Yard is pretty cool. Scot: [2:42] Yeah, very cool. Now, are you speaking and also on behalf of the listeners, what are you going there to learn more about? Jason: [2:51] Yeah, so in the highly unlikely event, there's anyone that listens to this show that doesn't already know what the show is. National Retail Federation's big trade organization represents retail in the United States. It's their big event. 30,000-ish people come to New York City. Tons of exhibitors in a wide variety of fields. The area that's always fun for me is one area of the show is dedicated to innovation. So they give like inexpensive booths to small companies that, you know, aren't ready to invest in a big booth. And many of these are startups or startups from other countries. And, you know, so it's always, there's always a lot of wacky dubious stuff there. But in between that, there's usually some, you know, kind of cool ideas. And it's often the first place you'll see something that a few years down the road becomes, becomes one of the innovative new parts of retail. So I love walking the innovation center. Last year, retail media networks were the big thing at this show, and I'm sure they're going to be a big thing again this year. People were starting to talk about AI last year, but this year, I think it's just going to be off the hook. I think in order to get a booth, you had to say you were an AI company. I'm pretty sure the trash is getting emptied by AI sanitation engineers. [4:09] I feel like it's simultaneously going to be wildly overhyped and super important and transformative to the industry. So that'll be interesting to see how that all plays out. I like to talk about food and grocery a lot and InterF has done a lot to expand their coverage of the food industry. So there's a whole separate portion of the trade show dedicated to grocery retail vendors and a whole content track. So that stuff is all interesting. John Furner, the president of Walmart, will have a keynote. A bunch of other retailers will have keynotes. Magic Johnson is kind of the outside speaker that they're hyping this year, which is, I mean, fine, but I don't go for those paid, not retail speakers that much. And then I am speaking, I am doing a session on one of the featured stages that is entitled, Coming to America, which is all about what Western brands can and should be learning from the Chinese brands that are now successfully doing business in the US. And so most notably, Timu, Shein, and probably a little bit of TikTok. [5:26] Yeah very cool i also saw on linkedin that you had what i would call a close encounter with a. [5:32] Drone experience what tell us more about that i did so i mean scott i'm sure you remember this but it was like i looked it up it was like 2013 that jeff bezos was on 60 minutes and was like oh and we're going to deliver all the packages via drone wasn't it the eve before cyber monday was like that sunday night before yeah cyber money yeah and so he made that announcement and you know that sounded incredibly far-fetched and i don't know if you remember but i had a session that i was doing an internet big show that year and i dressed up a drone with the amazon air logo and landed it on stage at the javits center or i had someone that was better than me landed on stage at the javits center in the middle of my presentation as a joke and i got in huge trouble for that that's wildly illegal that's why they call you retail geek yeah sometimes it's better to ask forgiveness than permission is my philosophy on that one. But back then, it was like this kind of silly science fiction. And since then, we've on this show and in the press and media talked about various kind of edge use cases where drone delivery might actually make sense or be economical. And we've talked a lot about some of these pilots that both Amazon Amazon and Walmart are running. And so I know it's a real thing and you can really do it. And maybe in some use cases, it's even practical at this point. [6:57] This December, last December, so last month, I did my last trip of the year to Walmart, which is in Bentonville, Arkansas, which side note, downtown Bentonville is beautiful for Christmas. They have a super cool light show. So if you've never visited Walmart, that's the time to do it. But there is a small Walmart neighborhood market, which is their grocery store concept, which is in a small community of 5,000 people about about 30 miles away from Bentonville called Pea Ridge. And so I drove out to Pea Ridge to visit the Walmart neighborhood market. And behind the neighborhood market is a drone center. And they are actually delivering packages via drone on an ongoing basis for all the residents of this 5,000 person community. And so standing in a parking lot and having a bunch of these planes, and the Walmart ones are fixed wing aircraft, launch and like zoom over your head and all the signs in the parking lot, you know, say low flying aircraft beware. [8:00] And like seeing all these planes like launch, it was more fun and cool than I expected it to be. And what's particularly cool is this particular model, the way they recover the planes is the planes all have a hook on the tail and they literally have a a retractable zip line that like two robot arms raise up and it puts the zip line across the drone center, which is elevated. And the plane flies into the zip line and gets hung up and it just swings like a swing until it loses momentum. And so, you know, I just sat there for like probably 45 minutes and watched like 10 planes launch and get caught by the zip lines. And I I made a video and put it on LinkedIn. So I edited it down to like a minute, but I know this is not new news to most people on this show that there's drone deliveries, but I'm telling you like when you actually see one in person, it's still kind of cool. Scot: [8:58] Neat. Are they, obviously they're not going to carry like a gallon of milk or something super heavy like that. What's their payload max on this? Jason: [9:06] Yeah, so I am not super well-versed on exactly what, like the one part of the experience I couldn't see, unfortunately, Unfortunately, you'd have to be pretty lucky to be out of residence when a delivery was happening. I think it's like a four-pound payload, and it's dropped via parachute. And I know the way it works is you register in advance to be a drone delivery site, and then you're given a little foldable circle target that you put in your backyard, and the drone drops the packages right on this target. And so, you know, Walmart neighborhood market is… Scot: [9:42] It's a grocery store with like you know dry goods and pharmacy and stuff like that so i i think it's a lot of like bottles of advil and things like that that are likely getting delivered there, very cool so head over to linkedin and look up jason and it's it's the post that starts you know x years ago on 60 minutes and it's in there yeah i'll put a link in the show notes if you if you want to find it quick cool one last topic we wanted to cover before we get into the meat of of the prediction show, Jason and I have been getting a lot of questions from listeners and it concerns a slowdown in our frequency. Well, no one can pull the wool over our listeners' eyes. You guys caught us. We have slowed down our frequency. And that's because starting with the next episode, 317, we're going to rebrand and it's going to be the Jason Bott and Scott Bott show. And nothing's going to really change. We are going to increase the frequency. It's going going to be daily. You guys wanted more shows. So next year, we're not going to do 365. That would be too much, but like 355, something like that. And you probably guessed by the rebranding that it's going to be Jason and I writing the outline of the show. But Jason, being the geek he is, has created a Gen AI version of himself that's been trained on 800 hours of Jason content. and he produces a lot more content than I do. So about 300 hours a month. So congrats, Jason, on this technological breakthrough. Jason: [11:09] Yeah. I'm super excited about that. You've disclosed one of the secrets to our success is that every episode is about a three to one ratio of Jason and Scott. Scot: [11:22] Since you do the audio editing, I try to go easy on you and you're self-inflicting your own pain. Yeah. Jason: [11:27] The truth, and that may be the norm, but the truth is we have two kinds of shows. There are shows where you are much more dominant than I am. And then there's shows where I I contribute more than you. It's kind of funny to see the flip-flop. If you get an interesting entrepreneur or you get a deep dive in a really arcane portion of Amazon's business, you get a lot of Scott. Scot: [11:48] Yeah. Yeah, that's where I thrive in the darkest corners of the interwebs. Yeah. Seriously, though. Jason: [11:55] I was just going to say one side note on that. That LLM we trained, you can now buy on the OpenAI GPT store that went live tonight. Scot: [12:03] Yeah, and you can have your own personalized. We get a lot of requests for personalized shows, so you can just write your own. Jason: [12:09] There you go. Scot: [12:09] Yeah. We'll talk to you in a three-to-one ratio of Jason to Scott. But seriously, though, we do not have an LLM. We wouldn't do that to you, but our frequency has decreased. We looked this up, and our first show was on November 14, 2015, if you believe it or not. So that's over eight years ago we started. This will be our ninth year. And yeah, so that's a lot of content. And when we started, I had just, I was one year into my current company Spiffy, and now we'll be celebrating our 10 years this year at Spiffy. And we had five employees and now we have about 500. Jason worked for Razorfish and he only had two words in his title. And now he works for the biggest or one of the biggest ad agencies with a fancy French name called Publicis. [12:59] And he has 16 words in his title. So there in his world, you measure your success by the size of your title. And he has done awesome. So both of those endeavors have kept us a little bit busier than we were nine to 10 years ago. So that is the root cause of our slowdown. We did the math and we actually did 15 shows last year. So it was like monthly plus a couple extras, plus three, if you will. We used to do around 50 a year. So you're all right. We have reduced the frequency. Apologies for that. this is a passion project for us so our revenue good news our revenue has not gone down which is which is good because we don't make any revenue we just love talking about this stuff and hanging out together and that was the whole genesis of this show and still is true even though we have less time to do it anything you want to add there jason yeah no i i think i mean obviously i feel like we've both gone a tremendous amount out of the show and we we love it and want to want to keep it going we want to make sure when we do shows that that they're interesting and valuable for folks. Jason: [13:57] And so one of the things that I've gotten a lot of feedback on is we, you know, every year we've always done a handful of these deep dives on particular topics. And I feel like the shows we get the most compliments on are when we do these deep dives or when we do really detailed breakdowns on the Amazon earning shows. And so, you know, certainly we'll still keep the Amazon earning shows on the schedule, but like, I'd like to lean into if, you know, if we are going to, you know do sort of one to two shows a month uh lean into some of those like more prep higher production deep dives as well so that is one of my new year's resolutions is to drink a lot more ice coffee and the other one is going to be to make sure we get get some relevant deep dives into the show schedule every year yeah there's got to be on the topic of ice coffee there has to be some limit to what the human body can endure there so it's going to be interesting too you're kind of a tim Tim Ferriss body experiment mode with the level of coffee you're reaching. Scot: [14:58] So I look forward to seeing how this goes. Jason: [15:00] Hack myself. Scot: [15:03] Okay. With that housekeeping out of the way, let's jump into the meat and potatoes of the show. As mentioned, this is our annual prediction show. Way back in episode 301, recorded on January 20th, 2023, we made five predictions each about what would happen in the upcoming year, which was 2023. 23. Let's go through and review our performance because jason is first in our title he always gets to go first decision i greatly regret from eight years ago just kidding my memory from eight years ago is you did name the show yeah scott and jason just doesn't it doesn't sound right obviously so here we are so jason go ahead i'll read your prediction and then you self-score All right, Jason, prediction number one, insert drum roll sound effect. You predicted, prediction number one, at least two retail bankruptcies besides Party City would occur. How'd you do on that one, Jason? Jason: [16:03] Yeah, well, Mr. Debbie Downer was right. The Party City reference was because Party City had already declared bankruptcy by mid-January of that year. But unfortunately, there were a number of other bankruptcies last year. So the marquee one was probably Bed Bath & Beyond, although they have a new life as the brand for Overstock. Talk david's bridal right aid but the one that i'm personally maybe the most sad about and i know you were a customer if not a fan was boxy yeah yeah very sad yeah so i'm giving myself credit for that that first one although i feel like a bad person for making negative predictions, it's kind of part of your personality i used to be the malageddon guy and now you flipped lived through the bankruptcy guy. Scot: [16:49] So I appreciate you carrying the banner on that one. Jason: [16:52] I'm here for you, man. Scot: [16:53] Okay. So that's so far one out of five is what we're scoring you. So one right, zero wrong. And number two, buy now, pay later consolidation. Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, excuse me, Afterbuy is another one, et cetera. At least one of these will emerge or exit the US or BNPL altogether. Jason: [17:15] Yeah, and I failed. Those companies, for the most part, continued to gain traction. I want to say Sezzle had some valuation problems, although it started to recover in Q4 this year, but they're all viable, independent entities still going. So that is a miss. Scot: [17:34] Okay, cool. So we're now tied one and one, one right, one wrong out of the first two. So batting 50, which is pretty good for a batting average. Above my my career average i'm pretty sure yeah yeah we we i have i will self-admit we've done a terrible job of track tracking this over the years because you know it's really fun and it's just trying to it's good exercise and i recommend you do it too listeners because it makes you think, in a little bit longer term way and when you make a prediction and you don't have to put yours out there but when you put it out there it makes you think a little bit a little bit deeper about it Your third prediction, prediction number three, was in 2023, Shopify will launch an ad product such as a retail media network. You were banging the RMN drum back then. Jason: [18:22] Oh, for sure. So this is a complicated one. I feel like I kind of got it right, but full disclosure, not in the way I expected. So when I wrote that, I really thought, gosh, Shopify's got, you know, all these independent stores that are probably too small to have retail media networks. That, you know, one of the interesting products Shopify could launch is a sort of a confederate network where, you know, all these individual sellers opt into a shared advertising product that Shopify could administer and help all these sites to monetize their traffic. And that did not happen. But what I wrote was launch an ad product such as a retail media network. And last year, Shopify did launch, they already had a product called Shopify Audiences, which is buy data on anonymous data on people that use ShopPay to help target ads. And last year, they added automated integrations with Snap, Criteo, which Criteo is a multi-platform advertising platform, and TikTok. So as a Shopify seller, you could now say, hey, I want to go buy an ad using Shopify customer data to define your market it and have it automatically placed on all these different digital media platforms. So I don't know. I feel like I kind of lucked into it because it didn't happen the way I thought, but it kind of did happen. Yeah. Scot: [19:49] Okay. We will give you, so at this point we're on number three and you've got two right, one wrong. Heading into the fourth prediction. And this one was in 2023, Meta, Google, TikTok are going to lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. How did you do on that one? Jason: [20:10] The real answer is I don't know. So I expected it to be much more prominent. And the tail of the tape is kind of mixed. Using eMarketer data, Google lost share across all their properties. So they went from 28% to 26%. Meta was kind of flat at 20%. They They lost share in Facebook but gained a little share in Instagram. And then TikTok actually grew a little share, so from 2% to 2.4%. And then the retail media networks obviously did gain share, but they're smaller. So Amazon went from like 11% to 13%. Walmart went from like less than 1% to 1.2%. So it kind of happened, but it happened. Scot: [20:56] To a tenth of a percent instead of what i i sort of felt would happen which was multiple percentages so i'm gonna not give myself credit for that one okay that's very generous of you, we uh this is the trick of writing these in hindsight you're always you wish you'd put like a clear number there so you'd be easier to score 100 100 they're kind of being squishy all right so here on number four you're at you're back to 50 50 so two right and two wrong and then one One quick clarification was this share of digital ads, like not all ads, right? Like not TV and stuff in the DOM denominator. All right. Number five prediction for Jason Retail Geek. For 2023, live streaming commerce, still not meaningful in the US. It will be less than 5% of social commerce in the United States of America. How'd you do on that one? Jason: [21:50] Also, the real answer is don't know because it turns out there's no good data source for truly measuring live streaming commerce. The estimates, which are based on these kind of thousand person surveys, are that all video commerce in the US is like 32 billion to 50 billion. And so how much of that like really happened live? Even if all of that was live, it's still not 5% of total e-commerce, but like what what percentage of e-commerce is social commerce. I just, I ended up feeling like I wrote a bad, squishy forecast, but there is part of me that wants to say, hey, the spirit of this was people aren't gonna be shopping for products live on video and it's not gonna be very meaningful. And I think that that is absolutely the case, that it's not meaningful. Scot: [22:39] Yeah, one thing that's interesting about, kind of like thinking back on 2023 with streaming, There's a couple of things I'm kind of just pontificating here. I don't I don't have an I'm not scoring you. Yeah, I kind of want to use this opportunity to pick your brain. So, you know, we have TikTok shops. I'm going to guess you don't think that's live streaming, right? Because it's like a recorded video and you're selling an ad next to it. Is that exactly? Jason: [23:04] And when you say I don't think it's live streaming, it's because it's it's not. Scot: [23:07] It's not. You're not putting it in your definition of live streaming. Yeah. Jason: [23:11] And that's something different to you. Scot: [23:13] But it's like a static streaming revenue or something. I don't know. Jason: [23:17] Yeah, I think there is video commerce, right? And even video commerce is not a very big thing. But most of TikTok shops and YouTube native checkout and these other experiences are what we would call video commerce. And there are now a couple vendors that have decent size revenue helping enable video commerce. So I think of someone like a fireworks, for example, that, that adds, adds video commerce to a lot of e-commerce sites and ad platforms. Scot: [23:45] And then how about, so there was a really interesting experiment and I don't think we talked about it because we were deep into the holiday data stream, but you know, Amazon had Thursday night prime video football. And then on Thanksgiving, the Friday after Thanksgiving, they bumped the game and did it on Friday. And part of that was if you watched the thing that's fascinating about the Amazon live stream is there's like three or four sub streams in there. And one of them had basically QR codes and you could buy right from the ad. Yeah. Is that live streaming or it was like an ad next to a football live stream in your view? Yeah. Jason: [24:23] So I do think that would meet the definition of live streaming because most people watch that game live. live, and they didn't disclose any data on how those were done. I could tell you in talking to several people that bought those ads, there was not meaningful engagement with the QR codes. [24:43] And so, yeah, you know, I think there's still lots of experiments. I think there's use cases where native checkout in video makes a lot of sense. There's even a few use cases where live video make sense, but they're edge cases. They're not, it's not the main thing. And again, there's a big difference between China and the US. There is a ton of content that is streamed only live and allows you to buy stuff in China, but it's mostly deals stuff. It's kind of like the next generation of guilt.com, if you will. And it's mostly like very scarce items. So it's farmers in tier three cities in China selling their produce for the week. And when they're out, they're out. And so they don't store the video and have people watch it later in order because they sell all their apples during the live stream. And that's a meaningful way people sell stuff in China. It's just it's just not I mean like the vast majority of video can be time shifted in the US and then it's not live streaming and you know we still for the most part don't have people buying a lot of stuff even you know through through video that's not live so I feel like because of the success in China it gets a little overhyped in the US and I feel like it hasn't lived up to the hype a. [26:02] Year ago though I would argue there are a bunch of vendors telling us that this is the next thing and we're all going to be out of business if we don't jump on the bandwagon and i can assure you if you did not jump on that bandwagon you you potentially are still in business. [26:14] Got it i know how amazon's going to solve this so hear me out this is this is an unofficial prediction and i know andy jassy listens to this show so andy here's how to solve this i'm going to share my entrepreneurial insights number one you have to keep travis and taylor together number Number two, you've got to get the Kansas City game next Friday after 2024 is Thanksgiving. Scot: [26:36] And then you have to sell exclusive Taylor merchandise on that game. So that's how you're going to get the engagement you want. You got to tap into the Swifties. Jason: [26:45] Yeah, I feel like the Swifty economy is a way to solve any business problem. I'll totally agree with that. I will throw out Amazon, you know, did lean into live streaming and they had a product called Talk Shop Live. And you know by all accounts it wasn't very successful the people they they bribed influencers with extra bonuses to produce content and as soon as they stopped offering those bonuses all those influencers moved off the platform and now it there's a a version of it that still exists but once again it's not live yeah yeah uh okay so what does that give me three out of three uh Uh, three out of five. Scot: [27:25] Yeah. So you, so three, correct. Two wrong. So that's good. You have a winning average. That's very similar to my college career. Jason: [27:32] Yeah. Scot: [27:32] There you go. Yeah. Gentleman's a D minus. Yeah. Jason: [27:40] So now let's get to Mr. Sparty Pants, who I suspect and fear did much better than me. So Scott, you'll remember your first prediction. It'll come as a shock to no one involves Amazon, right? Amazon uses this 2022 setback slash slowdown slash reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations. But behind the scenes, they take share and raise the bar on shipping. Scot: [28:09] Yeah. I, um, the shipping part was surprisingly clairvoyant there because, you know, what they did in 2023 is one of the things Jassy dug into this and they did these, what do they call it? Nodes regional. Yeah. These regional nodes. And they, they started zoning out at a tight level. They were moving too much product too far unnecessarily. And they, they really tightened that up and it allowed them to cut costs pretty dramatically on shipping and get a lot of leverage that that everyone was surprised about but also and this is nice they similarly you know have really cranked up to delivery speed and delighted customers so so you know very rarely in a business do you find something that that both saves money and delight usually you're having to make a choice you're like well i could save money but customers are going to hate this this was what very aligned with their, you know, their corporate goals of being like wildly efficient and automated, but at the same time, getting products to customers faster. So I think they had a pretty good year. So they've, you know, everyone was in the doldrums about Amazon. Everyone was like, oh, this Jassy guy is really messing things up. And I think he went kind of back to basics and said, let's squeeze some nickels and dimes out of this shipping thing and get it a little faster. And the customers have reacted to it. So I would score that one correct. Jason: [29:32] Yeah, 100%. I feel like Tim cooked it, and it was a good call on your part. Scot: [29:36] Yeah, absolutely. Jason: [29:38] So your second prediction, and I'd like to harp on this one a while if possible, is that Shopify would get acquired. Remind me, did that happen? Scot: [29:49] It did not, but you have to put this in context. Shopify dropped, what was it, like from $60 billion to $10 billion? They had a precipitous fall, and they had a lot of missteps. So they, you know, when this happened, you and I, I think jointly predicted that them getting into fulfillment was not only a bad idea, but a terrible idea. So this is the year they had to unwind all that, which I thought it would be. [30:18] I didn't think they would do that, but kudos to them. You know, so I 100% give them this is very hard to make a mistake and fix it out in the public world. It is a very humbling thing, but they sure did. So they got rid of the shipping part. They turned that into a little bit of lemonade where they ended up having a good partnership with a company that acquired Flexport, I believe it is. And then they have made a series of moves that have rebounded not all the way back to where they were, but they have done very well and they are not going to be acquired or they're not in any kind of existential problems. I do still think there's a world where meta, I think the natural require for them is meta. And at some point, those companies kind of have to go together. I also, if I recall my thesis on this, it was around the first party, the third party data going away. And I felt like they'd have to go on to a first party network. I still think that's true. I think they can survive independently. independently but i think to unlock a lot of value they need to be married into a first party entity more tightly so yeah yeah and of course the stock has rebounded a bit so it's it's it's a bigger swing now yeah i don't you know i you will spoil alert i did not repeat this. [31:42] This prediction i was gonna say you technically only missed that prediction by one word had you had you written shopify with fulfillment is acquired you you kind of would have been right, yeah long time listeners will know i have a long history of repeating predictions and then it never works out for me so i've learned my lesson the hard way my my big one was like for what have we we've been doing this for like eight times i guess or maybe this is the ninth and you know literally for like five years i predicted amazon would compete with them with fedex and i gave up and then like two years later they announced they're gonna compete as soon as you stop repeating it that's when you know it's gonna happen yeah so maybe i am predicting shopping there you go Oh, head explode emoji. Jason: [32:21] Yeah. So one out of two. So then let's move on to number three. And innovation in e-commerce powered by AI, such as GPT-4, surprises us by how fast it's adopted and how cool it is. Scot: [32:36] Yeah, I would say there's no one innovation that you can kind of say, wow, everyone added X to their site and it was amazing. But I would say it's pretty amazing how many retailers are using and getting a lot of value out of AGI. So, you know, the one you read a lot about is the helping of writing product description pages and tightening those up. A lot of people are using it for customer service and really improving that. A lot of people are using it for, you know, one of the things that's a total pain in the e-commerce world is many times you want to take a product image and it's, you know, it's in a scene and you want to isolate it. And then you want to spin it around and do a video and inject that thing in another templated video. you know, that was always very hard. And you would send these images to, you know, a, you know, another country where someone would, you know, for $5 an hour, sit there and meticulously isolate the item out of the background and pixel by pixel do that. Now they have, you know, pretty awesome AI systems for doing all those things. And, you know, retailers are using those pretty heavily. So I would say. [33:48] It's a little hard to score this one. I'll defer to you. I feel like I've been surprised by how much of it was useful. I think a lot of people were kind of saying this is going to be another blockchain, another live stream, another social chat commerce kind of a thing. AI is going to be a flash in the pan. And I would say, you know, companies are really using this. It's real. It's impacting the customer experience and improving retailers margins because they can be wildly more efficient. Jason: [34:15] Yeah, no. So I'm for sure giving it to you. I feel like part of the art here is you have to go back in time to last January and put yourself in the context that this was made. And I think there's a lot of things that are being routinely done today and are pretty darn cool that we would not have believed happened last January. And I think all that text on product detail page is one. The images is for sure one. there used to be whole sections of these trade shows dedicated to companies that were doing image manipulation and image masking and all that stuff. And they're all gone because the AI is so good. And I would also say they're now like it's starting to be pretty meaningful in search. Like Instacart has had generative AI search engine for a while. Walmart just launched generative AI in their search engine. So, you know, there is a lot of flavors of AI that are overhyped and it, But, you know, it is like, I mean, there are a lot of AI snow jobs out there, but also there's a lot of legitimate stuff. And so I think I definitely have to give you that one. So I think you're two out of three at the moment. Scot: [35:22] Awesome. Jason: [35:23] And so then we move on to number four. E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in the second half after a mean regression in the first half. E-commerce returns to 10 to 15 percent growth rate. Scot: [35:36] Yeah, I will. The bulk of my e-commerce data comes from Amazon. And I would say Amazon kind of checked this box. But you, the ultimate consumer and gesture and recool charter of all the data, do you agree that I got this one? Jason: [35:53] I do, especially because you were prescient enough to list the growth rate as a range from 10 to 15. So I'd say there was this weird regression where there was even a stage where retail was growing faster than e-commerce. And for sure, by the second half of last year, we were back to sort of normal trends with retail growing at 3% to 4%. And kind of pre-pandemic, e-commerce might have been growing at like 14% or 15%. And it returned to sort of 10% growth. So I think you definitely hit the spirit of this that we're kind of back to normal. And I think you also hit the technical letter of your prediction because I think we surpassed 10% growth for e-commerce. Scot: [36:40] Cool. So that puts us at three right now. Jason: [36:44] Three for four, which basically means you have to miss this last one for us to tie. Um, and I, I think I'm in trouble because your last one was Sephora and or Ulta moved to a subscription model for new product discovery. Scot: [37:02] Yeah, I, you know, I have to tip my hat to my daughter who previously mentioned is now 17 and was 16. Thanks to her. I spend an inordinate amount of time and money in both Sephora and Ulta. So this one was inspired by her. And yeah, I do have to admit before the show, I didn't know how I did on this one, but I was looking and I see Sephora has this thing called play exclamation mark. And it's the beauty inside community community announcing our new monthly beauty subscription box. Play on players. I don't know if you subscribe to that, Jason, but it sounds like your kind of thing. Jason: [37:39] You said oh yeah i was i was a pilot user you can't get this kind of camera ready look for the podcast without being totally totally plugged into all those products yeah no i think i think you definitely get this one if i was smarter i should have objected at the time because there's a debatable way in which this was already happening back then but they had subscribe and save but that doesn't count that's like auto that's like yeah with some sampling and stuff So, but I think it's much more customer facing and prominent now. So I, I'm giving it to you. So I'm giving you four out of five, which any year would be good performance. And in this particular year, it's both good performance and enough to declare you the winner. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. And I will be sending the Claret Jug to your home to live for the next year. Scot: [38:30] Awesome. Thanks. Thanks everybody. Jason: [38:31] Everybody I would like to I am a little salty to the folks at Shopify Toby if you're listening if you had only said yes to whatever acquisition came your way I would have been 100 so thanks dude thanks for everything so now for the three listeners that have hung out for our 15 minute of pre-ramble and our and our 20 minutes of scoring you finally get to the meat what the heck is going to happen in the world of e-commerce in the next year Nostradamus Thomas? Scot: [39:00] Yeah, let's continue. I just went, so why don't you give us the Jason Retail Geek Goldberg 2024 predictions for retail. Go. Jason: [39:12] Yeah. So last year, retail media networks were super hot. I think this year is going to be the year that the big retail media networks really start focusing on their in-store audiences. So I'm calling it Retail Media Networks Go In-Store, and I'm predicting that at least one top 20 retailer will launch a digital in-store ad network. So some kind of screens or interactive displays in a store that you can buy ads on through the retail media network. Scot: [39:41] So I'm in Sephora or whatever retailer. There's a cool screen telling me about this exciting new Kardashian lip color. And I go and interact with it and suddenly an ad comes up for something else. Jason: [39:53] Exactly. Scot: [39:55] Okay. Jason: [39:56] Switching you to the Taylor Swift cosmetics from the Kim Kardashian ones. Scot: [39:59] Whoa. Swifties make another appearance in the predictions. All right. Jason: [40:03] Exactly. My second one, I know what the spirit is. I struggled to make it specific enough that we can measure it, but I tried. So we've been talking a lot about AI. You had an AI prediction last year. [40:16] I think while a lot of these trends kind of get really buzzy and then die down, I think AI is the real deal. I think despite all the hype, AI is going to be even hotter in in December of 2024 than it is right now. And so the way I'm gonna try to quantify that is, I think by December of 2024, it will be more common than not that if there's a text box in an e-commerce experience, it's gonna be powered by generative AI. So we're gonna start typing sentences into all of these search engines instead of keywords. I think it is gonna take consumers a little while to learn to do that after it's possible, but I think that'll be really common. And then I think at least one retailer is going to have an AI-based auto replenishment solution that has significant adoption. And I need to clarify that because one retailer, Walmart, announced it at CES yesterday. So I don't think it exists yet, but they've announced that they're going to do it. And my prediction is not that they're going to try it. My prediction is that it will work or someone else will do one that works. and it's very different than like a subscription-based thing where you automatically get a fixed amount of something. This is going to be, you know, handing the keys to the computer and letting the computer decide how much peanut butter you're going through and making sure that I send you new peanut butter whenever you need it. Scot: [41:38] Hmm. Cool. Jason: [41:40] So that's number two. Number three, I really think this is going to be a bifurcated year in terms of retail prospects. I think we're going to have a handful of retailers that are really going to do well, that are poised for some growth rebounds from the last couple of years. Yeah, I kind of think Amazon and Walmart are both going to be in that bucket. I think we're going to disagree about this, but I think some of the Chinese companies like Timu and Shein might might be in that bucket. And I think there's going to be some other traditional retailers that really struggle. And so you're either going to do well or do poorly. I don't think there's going to be very many retailers kind of treading water in the middle of the road. And as a result, I think we're going to have a couple more significant bankruptcies in 2024. So the Grim Reaper is at it again. I'm once again predicting that at least two well-known retailers will close their doors and this year i'll be slightly more specific at least one of them is going to be a specialty retailer so in a category and another is going to be a general merchant or department store so i hope to be wrong on that one but it is what it is that's prediction number three how about a little size this can be like a two unit kind of a thing or no no no these uh yeah like these have to be a little more two two top 50 retailers like oh okay oh let's write Write that in because I won't remember that next time. Okay. [43:02] I will add it and then delete it in about six months when you've forgotten. No, I'll remember. Yeah. So number four, and this is where I think it's going to start getting fun. [43:12] I actually think that we're going to see more Chinese companies focusing on Western consumers. So I actually think that for a variety of reasons, the Chinese economy is not as hot as it once was. And I think it's going to take a little while to recover. So I think there's going to be more entrepreneurs in China trying to export their solutions to other parts of the world. And, you know, Timu and Xi'an are certainly the two most noted examples of companies that don't sell in China, but do sell in the U.S. I think Xi'an is going to successfully execute a Western IPO next year. And I think Timu is going to continue to grow. And very specifically, I think by 20, by the end of 2024, Timu is going to have at least 75% of the e-commerce revenue that we see from a very well-established U S retailer like target for e-commerce. Scot: [44:06] Okay. Now, are you implying it comes out of targets hide or that just like that? Jason: [44:10] I do think it's partially is going to come out of targets hide, but I'm not specifically saying that I feel like target could come down a little bit and that would help me make this. but I actually think e-commerce will not be the sore spot at Target next year. Scot: [44:25] Got it. Jason: [44:27] So that's number four. I'm bullish on the Chinese companies coming to America. And my fifth one is going to go to grocery e-commerce. So, you know, grocery e-commerce grew a lot during the pandemic, but fun fact, grocery e-commerce actually shrunk a little bit in 2023 relative to the big growth they had in 2022, like partly because groceries got more expensive, people, it was safer to go back to grocery stores. And so people kind of regressed a little bit in their e-commerce shopping. So the best source we have for e-commerce data for grocery is BricksMeetClicks, which is a big, it's a survey, but it's a big survey. So the BricksMeetClicks folks said that grocery e-commerce shrunk by about 2%. And I'm saying they're going to grow by like 25% in 2024. So very meaningful acceleration and growth. Scot: [45:18] Cool. Jason: [45:20] So those are my five. Some years we did bonuses. is. I'm just going to throw out some other things that I guarantee are going to happen, but I don't want to bother making them predictions because they're too hard to measure. But as I did this year, again, I'm going to say live streaming is not a major thing next year either. And I'll throw the metaverse and crypto in there as well. If you're an innovative startup that's going to solve retail with live streaming the metaverse and crypto, please don't send me an email. Scot: [45:46] But it's on blockchain. Jason: [45:48] Yeah, exactly. If you're doing anything on blockchain, the first thing i need to know is why i can't just do it with a database and why i need a distributed ledger so if you can't answer that question don't call me um because blockchain yeah, i i think another one that really annoys me i couldn't figure out how to measure this so i didn't make it a forecast but i think you're going to hear a lot less retail ceos blaming their poor performance on retail crime next year if you don't know or haven't been following it That's mostly a scam. Shrink in retail is down. There is this new kind of crime called organized retail crime, which is awful, and people get hurt, and people should stop doing it. But it's not economically meaningful, and it's not the reason that any of these retailers miss their guidance. And I think we're going to see. [46:34] And CEOs stop leaning on it as much because it's becoming obvious that it's a false excuse. And lastly, I was bullish on some of the big retail media networks in my predictions. I said one would go in-store. But a corollary to that, there's a lot of really small retailers that are seeing the success of the big retailers and trying to launch retail media networks. And yeah, that's not going to work. So if you're, you know, a relatively unsuccessful e-commerce, a specialty retailer with small e-commerce or you're a regional retailer, you're just not going to have enough traffic and a big enough audience to make it work. So I think, you know, I'm starting to see some retailers that are probably on the wrong side of the scale equation, trying retail media networks and I'm mostly not optimistic for them. So, so you heard it here first. Scot: [47:24] So the world where they patch together in like a little alliance and like a a Battlestar Galactica kind of thing and get some heft. Jason: [47:32] There is. There absolutely is. And the most notable place that's happening is in Europe. And kind of interestingly, the biggest retailer in Europe, Carrefour, like sort of embrace that. Like Carrefour is the Battlestar Galactica in this, this like, you know, convoy of ragtag, this fleet of ragtag ships. And so, so you're exactly right. And I heard the giant French advertising company that is helping them do it is decent too. Scot: [47:59] Yeah. Soccer blue. One clarification on your grocery e-commerce thing. You know, that's a big number, right? That's like 30% off a big base, 25%. Are you counting like curb pickup on that? Jason: [48:15] Yeah. So I'm specifically using the Bricksmeet Clicks metric, which does include three categories of grocery. It's curbside pickup, which is over 50% of grocery in most U.S. cities. It's home delivery of groceries. And it is actually shipping of some grocery items, but that's a relatively small one. Yeah. Scot: [48:37] So Instacart would be kind of captured in there as well. Jason: [48:39] They would. Yeah. Yeah. Side note, I actually, I think I'm not as bullish on Instacart as I think you're going to be, but they will certainly be part of it that helps me make this prediction. Scot: [48:51] Cool. And we should have said this before we got into the predictions, but what we do is we do these independently and then we splat them into our shared show notes that we have here that Jason and I use. Jason: [48:59] Yeah. So it would have been possible for us to have the same predictions, but we did not. Scot: [49:03] We never see each other's beforehand. So that's a part of the fun. So there's no, no, no planning or, or, you know, kind of swapping and prediction. Jason: [49:12] No cross-contamination. Scot: [49:14] But because we're, we don't have any revenue, we don't have Pricewaterhouse verifying that. You're just going to have to trust us. Okay. Jason: [49:23] What do you have, Scott? Scot: [49:24] Well, I want to point out that I see you snuck in three bonuses. So you took, so yet again, you're hogging the stage, but that's okay. You're first in the, in the title there. Jason: [49:34] And I have many more words in my title in case you didn't notice. Scot: [49:38] Being a rule follower, I have five predictions, not eight. And my first one is Amazon's going to relaunch Alexa on a native LLM. So, yeah, Alexa and the whole Siri and what's the Xbox one, Katana, you know, Cortana, they they once you interact with the chat GPT voice, which is a little slow, but it's a little slower than those. But the responses are so much better. You really want to just throw your Alexa in the garbage can. So, you know, this is tricky because Amazon doesn't have an LLM. The things they've done on AWS are kind of like geared towards being neutral, and I think they're not going to stay neutral. So they have to be neutral, and then they have to rewrite Alexa on that. Maybe it's tricky because what do you do? Do you call it like new Alexa, or do you change their name, or you've got some brand equity built there? So it's going to be interesting to see how they navigate that. that. [50:40] And then number two is I don't understand how Timu isn't just wish dot 2.0. So in the early days of wish, everyone got all excited and they're like, oh my God, this is amazing. I can buy all this cheap stuff and it comes and it's amazing. And it's like a dollar drone and it's awesome. And then it showed up six months later and then it broke in five minutes. So I think there's a lot of buzz around these things. I think a lot of this stuff gets supported by China and free shipping and these kinds of things that the Chinese government does to help give their Chinese-born companies an edge. And none of that is infinite, right? So we saw that with Alibaba and Alipay. That whole thing kind of has had a whole situation in China where it got too big and they didn't like the success there. And Jack Ma, and Lord knows what's happened to him. I think these, I think Timu is kind of, there's gonna be some kind of an episode like that. And this was my, I kind of use the word falters. So that kind of thing. I don't think they're gonna do an IPO. That would really shock me. Jason: [51:48] Yeah, I think we're going to, I mean. Scot: [51:50] Yeah. So we're misaligned on that one, which makes it fun. Yeah, either could happen. Jason: [51:53] There are smart people that think on both sides of that one, but that's a fun one. We'll agree to disagree. Scot: [51:58] But both can't happen. So this is a zero-sum game one for sure. Jason: [52:01] Exactly. Scot: [52:02] And then, you know, this one I guess we're aligned on, but I kind of got more specific because you always do super generic ones that make it easier to get them. [52:13] Retail media networks are currently and i found a there's a research firm called core site so like you i wanted to kind of pick a measurement stick here and they say the whole world that that whole thing in 2023 did 52 billion and it's growing 20 so that's their data and i said my prediction thus is it's going to accelerate this year to 30 growth and that brings it to to about 67 billion. So, you know, clever listeners that listen to our Amazon recaps, you'll know, you'll notice that, well, okay, if that's at 52 billion, Amazon ads are at like, what are they? Like 49, 45 billion? So, but that's a run rate. So for that Amazon number, you take the quarter, and the last one we talked about was Q3, Q4 will be coming out soon. So we took the Q3 number, multiply it by four, and that's how you get the 45-ish. So, so really doing 15 a quarter, but the prior quarter was like, like 10 ish. And the prior quarter that was like eight ish. So, so Amazon didn't do 45 in a year. They probably did more like 35 to 30 in the year. But the trajectory is such that when you do the run rate, it comes out to be a big number. So, so they are a large part of that 52 billion, but they're not like 90% of it. They're, you know, 65% of it or so. So there's that one. Jason: [53:34] Okay. Scot: [53:35] Number four, and this one we're kind of aligned on, surprisingly, even though the specifics you disagree with. Here, I've been