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風向龍鳳配
中國成2023年唯一經濟引擎?陳鳳馨:上半年經濟看好!【陳鳳馨點評】20230121

風向龍鳳配

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2023 20:58


台彩春節加碼9億!大樂透加碼360組100萬春節大紅包,1/20~2/5天天開獎,對億元頭獎再對加碼百萬獎,過年就要買彩券! https://taiwanlotteryevent.com.tw/cny/ -- 國泰人壽今年歡慶60歲生日,這些年來有好多的職場故事想要跟大家分享! 到底星座真的會影響職場表現嗎? 什麼樣的主管那麼會踩雷! 還有最資深和最年輕員工,進行世代思想大PK! 點擊收聽「國泰樹輪說」! https://reurl.cc/MX9Xzk ----以上訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供---- 陳鳳馨斷言,2023年上半年,中國經濟已經可以看好了,國際知名投資機構包括高盛、花旗、摩根士丹利等,下半年都在上修中國大陸的經濟成長率。除此之外,具體的指標還有中國大陸在疫情這三年期間,儲蓄率是往上升的,有報復性消費的條件,疫情解封的亂象已經到了最後的尾聲,而這波解封後的報復性消費可能就落在春節前後,但是也有兩個變數,分別是民營公司以及外資投資的信心。

Ideas Untrapped
Why Education, Electricity, And Fertility Matter for Development

Ideas Untrapped

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2023 81:36


Welcome to another episode of Ideas Untrapped. My guest today is Charlie Robertson, who is the chief economist of Renaissance Capital - a global investment bank - and in this episode we talked about the subject of Charlie's new book, "The Time-Travelling Economist''. The book explores the connection between education, electricity, and fertility to economic development. The thrust of the book's argument is that no poor country can escape poverty without education, and that electricity is an important factor for investors looking to build businesses. It also explains that a low fertility rate helps to increase household savings. Charlie argues, with a lot of data and historical parallels, that countries need at least a 70-80% adult literacy rate (defined as being able to read and write four sentences in any language) and cheap electricity (an average of 300 - 500 kWh per capita) in order to industrialize and grow their economies rapidly. Small(er) families (3 children per woman) mean households are able to save more money, which can improve domestic investments by lowering interest rates - otherwise countries may repeatedly stumble into debt crises. We also discussed how increasing education can lead to higher domestic wages, but that this is usually offset by a large increase in the working-age population - and other interesting implications of Charlie's argument.TRANSCRIPTTobi;The usual place I would start with is what inspired you to write it. You mentioned in the book that it was an IMF paper that sort of started your curiosity about the relationship between education, electricity, fertility, and economic development. Generally. So, what was the Eureka moment?Charlie;Yeah, the eureka moment actually came in Kenya, um, because I'd already done a lot of work showing how important education was. It's the most important, no country escapes poverty without education. So I'd already made that clear and there wasn't much debate about that. Perhaps there was a debate about why some countries have gone faster than others, but there wasn't much debate about that. The second thing I was very clear on was electricity, which kept on coming up in meetings across Sub-Saharan Africa, Pakistan, [at] a number of countries, people kept on talking about the importance of electricity. But the eureka moment came when somebody pointed out to me that Kenya, where I was at the time, couldn't afford to build huge excess capacity of electricity, which I was arguing you need to have. You need to have too much electricity, so that it's cheap and it's reliable.And then investors come in and say, "great! I've got cheap educated labour, and I've got cheap reliable electricity. I've got the human capital and the power I need, that then enables me to invest and build a business here." And the question then was, well, why was it so expensive in Kenya but so cheap in China? Why was the cost of borrowing so high in Nigeria but so cheap in Morocco or Mauritius? And when I was trying to work out where did the savings come from in China, uh, well I was looking globally, but China's the best example of economic success and development success we've seen in the last 50 years. Over half the answer came from this IMF paper saying, actually it came from their low fertility rate. That's over half of the rise in household savings, which are massive in China, came about because the fertility rate had fallen so dramatically.And I then thought, could this possibly be true for other countries as well? Could this help explain why interest rates are so high in Nigeria or Kenya and so low elsewhere? And the answer is yes. So this book, The Time Travelling Economist is bringing all of these three things together - the fertility rate, the education rate, and electricity - to say not just how countries develop, cause I think I've answered that, but when they develop. Because once we know those three factors are key, we can then work out the when. Not just in the past [of] countries, but also in the future. Um, so that's where this came from.Tobi;I mean, we're going to be talking about each of those factors over the course of this conversation, but another question...some would say boring question, but I know how development economists and economists generally always try to defend their turf, you know, around issues like these. So, has anybody like taking you to task on the causal link between these three factors and development? And how would you defend yourself against that were it to be asked?Charlie;I haven't found anyone yet who's argued successfully against these points. Um, the closest criticism I get, and just to say, you know, this book came about off the back of three key reports I did in 2017 on education, 2018 on electricity, and 2019 on fertility and savings. So I've now been talking about these ideas for three to five years. The book only came out in July, 2022, bringing them all together. But in five years I haven't had pushback other than people ask, "is it not correlated?" You know, "is it not perhaps economic growth leads fertility declines or boosts savings?" And I think I show really clearly in the data that "no." Um, the fertility declines give us the growth. You don't get growth without adult literacy of at least 40%, you certainly don't get industrialization until literacy is at 70 to 80.So, you know, I'm looking at the data and I think it's pretty crystal clear that you've gotta get these other things right first before your economy can take off. And I can't find any counter-examples. Except, I mean there's the inevitable few, those countries like Qatar or Kuwait with huge amounts of energy exports per capita or diamonds in Botswana's case. And there you don't have to get everything right before you get wealthier because you just happen to be lucky to have huge amounts of energy exports per person and a very small population. But they are a bit of an exception. I think you could probably argue that they do grow first before they get everything else right. But for the vast majority of the planet and all countries in history, it's the other way around. You gotta get education, power, fertility rates in the right place to take off.Tobi;So I mean, getting into the weeds, let's look at education first. Before your book, personally for me, and I should say what I really like about your book is, it's well written, it's an interesting read. It comes across as a bit less analytical, which is what you get from the standard development literature, you know, and I think that's partly because you are writing about a lot of the countries that you have also worked in and interacted with a lot of these factors. So it really gives it a first-hand experience kind of narrative. So I like that very much. So prior to your book, if someone were to ask me about the relationship between education and economic development or catch-up growth, generally, the reference usually goes to Studwell's big claim, Joe Studwell, that: Yeah. You don't really need a super high level of education metrics for a country to industrialize because the standard explanation is that how a relatively poor country starts industrializing is from the low-skill, uh, labour-intensive, low-skill manufacturing jobs, that you don't need a high level of education and skill for you to be able to do that.So what I wanna work out here is what is the transmission mechanism between adult literacy and industrialization the way you've, like, clearly analyzed in your book?Charlie;Well, thank you very much for saying it was nicely written, I appreciate that. I wanted to try and make it as accessible as possible. Yeah, I think Joe Studwell's books are really good and I think he's right that you don't need a high level of education to do that first step out of rural poverty, subsistence farming into a textile mill. I think what's interesting is how many people writing about development forget how important just adult literacy actually is, because we've taken [it] so much for granted. So Adam Smith, who wrote The Wealth of Nations, the father of economics back in the 18th century in Scotland, he didn't make a big deal about adult literacy driving growth. And more recently, you know, people like Dani Rodrik have echoed exactly that saying you don't need any great education to work in a textile mill. You just need to be dextrous with your fingers. Which is almost exactly actually what Adam Smith said 250 years ago. And I was sympathetic to that, but I then kept on seeing in the data, well, first of all, I found this theory written in the sixties that said that no country has industrialized even to that first basic level of textiles without adult literacy being about 70 to 80% of the population. Which means basically all adults, all men, plus well over half the female population as well. And this was the theory written in the sixties and when I looked at the data, it was proven right and I couldn't quite understand why - if you just need dextrous fingers to work in a textile mill, why would there be that link? And I ended up talking to a guy who ran Levi's factories in Asia in the 1980s and he said, “Charlie, just think about it.”You've got this box of Levi's jeans coming down the conveyor belt. Do you put that box onto the truck labelled United States or that truck labelled Europe for export? And if you can't read and write, you won't even get that right. So the adult literacy thing I think is overlooked. People are focusing on secondary school, high school education, how much [many] university graduates a country needs and they do need graduates too. But until you get to that 70 to 80% adult literacy, textile mills don't go to a country. And we can see that they did go to China in the nineties when they got to adult literacy of 70%. They are in Southeast Asia. They're in Bangladesh since education hit about 70 to 80% in the last 10 to 15 years. But they're not big in sub-Saharan Africa, or at least in parts of Nigeria or the Sahel or West Africa because the education levels still aren't there yet. So, you know, I looked as far back as I could go to the 19th century and even the first non-European country to take off, Japan, had an adult literacy rate of about 70% by 1900 and 20 years later, they had a thriving textile industry. The education always comes first. And Korea copied that Japan model in the 1950s and sixties, Taiwan, Hong Kong, all the rest [of] Southeast Asia's followed. Now, South Asia's doing it and luckily it's spreading across Africa too. But the adult literacy is the first essential step.Tobi;One possible objection. And I haven't seen this anywhere, but I couldn't really get it out of my mind while I was reading that part of the book is that some will argue that increasing education also increases domestic wages and that is really a problem for industrializing. And, if I recall, one particular point that the anonymous economic historian on Twitter, Pseudoerasmus, made particularly about Asia, is they were able to combine a very high adult literacy rate - a measure which you use is completion of secondary education…Charlie;Yeah.Tobi;With very unusually low domestic wages. What role do wages play in your analysis?Charlie;I think that's the norm actually. It connects to the fertility thing. And I'm not sure if you want to jump there just yet, but what tends to happen when you've educated your population is that the fertility rate drops a lot. And when that happens, the number of people who have to stay at home looking after 5, 6, 7 children goes down a lot too. Women can go into the workforce and of course cause you've got the education, right? Those women are educated so they can join the industrial workforce as well. So very roughly, if we say there's a hundred people in Nigeria, 50 kids and 50 adults, let's say 25 of the adults have to be staying at home to look after 50 kids, you're talking 25% of the population can go out and work of the overall population. You go to Asia today and it's more like 70% adults, say 30% of kids.So you need maybe 15% of adults to stay at home. And you end up with something like 85% of the whole population can go out to work instead of 25%. Now, the consequence of that is a massive rise in the working-age population. And I think that that keeps industrial wages low for a few generations, in fact. Or at least three decades. Probably 40 years, where the education's come through, the fertility rates come down, you've got this huge excess supply of labour, which is then joining the industrial workforce and getting jobs. But because there keeps on being more people joining that workforce, it keeps wages relatively low. Now, what eventually happens then after a few decades is that that big increase in the workforce stops increasing as fast. We've seen this in China in the last 20 years. So, 20 years ago China's per capita GDP was about fifteen hundred dollars, $1,500.Whereas now, now the population has stopped growing. Working age population's shrinking. It's gone up to over $11,500. It's gone up tenfold. So the big reward for industrialization comes later. And we had this in Europe of course in the 19th century, you know, wages were pretty awful and industrial working was pretty awful experience in the 19th century. I mean it paid slightly better than rural subsistence farming, which is why people came to the cities. But London was a horrible place for the vast majority of people. And the industrial workhouses were terrible places as well. And that lasted for generations. It's only when that big population, kind of, boom stories started to shift that labour eventually got any bargaining power. Cause when there was too much labour coming into the market, they had no bargaining power with the factory owners. It wasn't until the 1870s that the trade unions became legal in, say, the United States. Because up till then, you know, "you join a union, I fire you," you know, could be what the factory owner would say in the United States, cause there's always gonna be another person I can employ. But once the workforce starts to gain a bit of bargaining power, cause it's not expanding quite so fast, then finally wages start to pick up. So I think what's happened in Asia is pretty normal and will probably be the experience that we've seen across Africa as well.Tobi;Inevitably this will take us into what it means to be educated, really. Because a lot of countries, I mean it's pretty much standard - they say, Oh yeah, we want invest in education. Um, we know it is important for human capital. We know how important it is to have an educated population and all that. You talked about some data challenges also for some countries in your book. So what I wanna ask here is what exactly does it mean to be educated in the sense that you are talking about in the book?Charlie;Yeah, this is a really fair question. Why am I talking about adult literacy? The definition is can you read and write four sentences in any language? Sentences like "farming is hard work." So it's not a very high threshold and I wouldn't argue, I don't think you would, that it's highly educated. It's just educated enough to put that box of jeans onto the right truck when it's going to America or Europe. But all that's doing then is taking your country's per capita GDP from your per person kind of wealth from say $500 a year, a thousand dollars a year to the kind of two, $3,000 a year level. It doesn't mean you've got the education levels you need to get to the $10,000 per capita GDP level growth or 20 or 50 or even a hundred. Um, to get to the 10,000 level, I think you probably need very good secondary school education as well.And to get to the $20,000 per capital GDP level, you're talking a lot of graduates coming out of university and you need to have that education then spreading throughout the population, both broadening and deeper education as well. And that is a process that takes decades. I mean I focused quite a bit on Korea because it was one of the most successful models and then China came along and did it even faster. But what Korea prioritized in the 1950s was getting that adult literacy rate from 35% or so, too low even to grow sustainably, to about 90% they said by 1960. So in about 10 or 15 years they got it from 35 to 90 and that was enough then to have textile mills do really well in the 1960s and they became a manufacturing country, an industrialized country by the early 1970s.But already then the government said, right, we need more engineers, we need graduates coming out of university to do heavy industry, to do cars, shipbuilding. But Korea had no cars or shipbuilding at the time, nothing significant. So they were changing the university focus from, kind of, the arts or law towards engineering and the sciences before they had the economic sectors that they were trying to promote. And then about 10 to 20 years later, all these graduates were then in the economy and ready to start up companies like Deawoo, Hyundai, Kia, Samsung. And they started small obviously in the 1980s and early nineties. But this kind of sequential thinking about it meant that Korea kept on having the right human capital at every stage of development. So my book's trying to focus on, you know, why hasn't Pakistan got all the textile factories?Why does Bangladesh have them? Why doesn't Nigeria have them? Why does Vietnam have them? And this is saying first you've gotta get that sequencing right of everybody ideally being literate, everybody having had school up to 11 years old and come out with a good standard of education. On the quality issue you just raised, the problem here is a couple of things. So I mean firstly people sometimes just make up the data and say, yes, my population is literate when it's not. But secondly, when you try and kind of shoehorn a hundred kids into one class to say, you know, they're all going to school now, but you've only got one teacher, you are not coming out with a good education at all. You might not even be coming out literate at all. So that, you know, I'm also trying to warn that governments can't do this on the cheap. Or not completely. They have to take it seriously and say, look, we actually need to make sure everyone really is coming out able to read and write. It's not just trying to tick a box to say everyone's at school.Tobi;Hopefully, we'll circle back to policy questions around this later. Let's talk briefly about electricity, which as you say, once you start investigating these factors, then you start teasing out what's what for each country. And the way you introduce that is [that] there are some countries with very high adult literacy rates but still weren't getting the benefits - like [the] Philippines, which was your example in the book. And it turns out what was missing in that particular case was electricity generation. But first I want you to make one distinction for me quite quickly. Cause it's funny, I was reading David Pilling's brief coverage of your book in the FT and he talked about the fertility part being controversial and I wonder that people miss the obvious controversy in electricity, but we'll get to that. So, now, is it really about investment in electricity that is often missing in countries that can't quite manage to get it right or the way their electricity market is structured? I know you are quite familiar with Nigeria and it's really a big, big, big debate that we've been having for, I don't know, like 20 years. So, some people will say you need very large upfront investment, possibly by the government, in generating capacity transmission, machinery and co. We argue, oh no, you really need to restructure the electricity market first. People have to pay for what they use. You need to restructure the tariff system, blah blah blah, blah, blah. What are your thoughts?Charlie;Um, big issues. And there is a debate. There're so many debates about this actually. There's the debate about whether you need a big national grid, big national generation and distribution companies or whether you can have localized electricity. Um, you are getting a couple of points though that I think it's easier to say some answers to. And one of them was to do with getting people to actually pay their bills. Certainly a problem in Nigeria, apparently, you know, discos will say that because there hasn't been good metering and despite privatization that those meters have not been rolled out. I know the government's promising to roll it out to all 10 million account holders now, but because there hasn't been metering, you can't charge necessarily the fair price for the amount of electricity people have used. So then people don't wanna pay. So then the discos are losing money, then they can't pay the generators and this then becomes a problem.And I think there is a case to say that if the generators can sell some power directly to some big companies, that could be one way around part of the problem. So in a place like Lagos, very similar to the Philippines in the 20th century, good educated population just held back by a lack of cheap reliable power. You know, I think if Lagos could have its own electricity story, it would be a phenomenally successful economy. It should be over the next three or four decades. So there is a case about how you structure this. But I found two or three things interesting when I was looking into this issue in 2018. And the first was just clarifying that it really is electricity that people need more than say transport infrastructure. You know, this is a survey the world bank had done and the only countries where they've said transport infrastructure was the bigger problem was countries where there wasn't an electricity problem because there's so much of it.So countries, where there's a load of electricity, say yes we need more transport infrastructure, but everybody else says we have to have the electricity first. So then it's a question of how do you roll that out in a way that makes money and supports development? And there is a... I think, a problem at the moment with well-meaning policies from people like the United Nations or the African Development Bank saying everybody should have access to electricity. But my point in the book is, and Adam Smith said the same thing in the 18th century, you want your infrastructure to be making money not losing money. You need to make sure that if you're going to supply people with a road or a bridge or electricity, that they can pay for it. And if you start building stuff that loses you money because people can't pay their bills, then you'll end up with an uneconomic electricity system which can't function properly and can't give industry what it needs.And what I try to emphasize in this is that every country from America and France in the 1920s to Turkey in the 1960s or seventies to Korea in the 1970s, every country has said, okay, let's make sure we've got electricity for industry first. Profitable, makes money, and then households over time? Yeah, okay, we'll connect them over time, but only when they can start affording to pay for electricity. It's not another subsidy that governments can't afford, we just can't do that. [This] is what every other country's done. But at the moment I do see this pressure for electricity systems to try and roll out universal access and so, in places like Kenya that's putting the whole electricity system under financial pressure because it's hurting their profits. And if you're trying to roll out cheap electricity to households, well how do you pay for that?Well, government subsidies partly, but the other way to pay for it is to make industry pay a high price. But if you're making industry pay a high price industry won't come. They'll go to Asia; where they get a low price for electricity. They're not going to go to somewhere that's got a high price. Cause no company's gonna say, I just wanna subsidize households getting electricity. Companies are coming to build stuff in countries because they'll make a good profit from doing so. So I think you've raised a number of issues there, you know, is localized electricity good, and so on? You know, what should you be prioritizing first - industry or households? And there's a whole host of issues. But I hope I've answered that.Tobi;Actually, that's the controversy I was referring to at the beginning of that question because the background that is, it'll be a very, very tough sell in the current political climate, for example in Nigeria, for any person aspiring to public office to make this argument that you have to power industry first. What it's going to sound like is: you are just trying to prioritize the rich and trying to exclude some people from what, like you said, has come to be framed as a universal basic right. You talk to a lot of small businesses, even individuals, like you mentioned with the World Bank Survey, the importance of electricity is so paramount on everybody's mind that if there's stable electricity, I can start X and Y businesses. I could make money and, I mean, no one needs the government for anything else. Just give us electricity.Charlie;Yeah.Tobi;So my point is practically… thinking about this practically, how do you think a sensible government that is not trying to bankrupt itself prematurely can manage this situation?Charlie;Well, I think it's hard work. Um, how did the Koreans do it in the sixties or the seventies or the eighties? They gave you no right to protest - military government. How did the communists do so well at getting this industry first, households later? How did they get it right in China or Russia? Same thing. You've got no rights to protest. "Your interests don't matter, we're thinking 10 to 20 years ahead how to make our country better off and how to make everyone better off. So you suffer now because we are gonna prioritize business." So that is one model. I'm not recommending it, I'm just saying it is a model that can be done. The other way is to allow it to be done by the private sector. And if you let the private sector roll out electricity, they will not supply electricity to people who won't pay their bills.And that is the story that you saw in western Europe, it's the story you saw in the States, and to some extent you're seeing actually in Kenya. There's quite an interesting company there called M-KOPA. And M-KOPA will sell you, well, they'll lend you, they'll lease you, a solar panel, a little one that you can put on your - actually, a friend of mine was showing it to me the other day in Uganda...they put it on the straw roof of the mud hut and that solar panel, you pay a monthly fee and after about 18 months you've paid for the panel, you've also got energy during that time enough to supply a mobile phone and so on, lights a little bit, and then it's yours and that's effectively privatizing that rural distribution story. But I think the difficulty is that politicians find it really hard to do this.And part of what I'm writing about in the book is how really hard it is for governments in a country with no savings, big population growth, to constantly meet all of the different demands. With huge population growth you're having to build new schools all the time, you have to hire even more teachers all the time. You've got population pressure, maybe, causing clashes over agricultural land like the Fulani herdsman in Central Nigeria, Northern Nigeria as well. And all of these pressures are on you all of the time. And there's constant demand to spend more on bridges, on hospitals, on education, on security. And what you can't afford to be doing is making a loss. And so I think what politicians need to do is say, we've gotta sequence this right. The same thing as with education. It's no good having a million university graduates if a country isn't literate enough to have an industrial base, you've gotta have the literacy first.And equally, it's no good having electricity rolled out to every household when there are no factories for people to go and get the jobs they need to be able to pay the electricity bill. And it's not easy. I, I totally understand it's not an easy situation for anyone to be in. The difficulty is [that] because it's not easy, too many political leaders will take what appears to be the easy option of saying, "I tell you what, let's just go and borrow a load of dollars offshore. Nigeria's going to go and issue a lot of dollar debt and we'll use that to try and sort these problems out." Kenya's done the same, Ghana's done the same, Pakistan's done the same. And the risk then is that you end up in default situations. So that feeds into one of the other chapters in the book as well.But I think it's very difficult. I think realistically governments need to say, what can we do here? And this is how long it's going to take. And it's going to be not a five-year story, it's going be a 20-year story, a 30-year story to get it right. And people, sadly, need to be patient, which is hard; when for generations people have been waiting for things to get much, much better and little progress has been made, relatively little progress has been made compared to Asia and that causes a lot of political frustration. I think.Tobi;I mean, speaking about Asia and I mean your point about taking away the right to protest, I think Africa and Nigeria sort of missed that window when we had military governments everywhere. So, uh, let me give you one experience I've had in trying to discuss your book with friends. So I get two reactions to the fertility section.It's almost automatic, you know, when you discuss fertility being at a certain level and I try to, you know, successfully argue your point, you get two strands of reactions in my experience, one goes immediately to the China issue - the one-child policy; that, "oh, so are you trying to say we should do what China did?" The other slightly more technical objection I get goes to the relationship between population growth and economic growth that is quite pervasive in the growth literature. Did you also experience that while writing the book and debating with colleagues?Charlie;Now I'll take each point in turn. Um, the China one-child policy story helps explain this massive rise in Chinese savings and then their very strong growth. What I'm trying to show in the book, of course, is that every rich country has seen a fertility decline. And what I'm arguing is probably the right sort of level for countries to aim for is about two to three kids on average. I don't care if people have five kids or one kid, it's just as a country the average of two to three kids is consistent with a very high, well, a big jump in the level of sayings. And with those savings, you can then industrialize and grow, and grow fast. Um, China I think actually made a mistake. I think China got it wrong by going for the one-child policy because they kind of turbocharged that story, that story that every rich country has got, of lower fertility, it took a really long time in Europe. I mean it took a really, really long time in Europe and that's why Europe had the slowest growth of any industrial revolution. It was done faster by the communism [they had] in Russia and they did faster growth and we've done even faster in China. But the consequence of this one-child policy and what the Chinese have discovered is it's bloody hard to get the fertility rate back up again once you've had one kid. I was talking to a Chinese professor on a plane back from Asia once and she was saying all of her friends, they can't get married, they can't stay married. They get married and they can't stay married because they're all used to being a one-child kind of princess or prince in the family who gets everything they want and then they try married life and they discover as you might well know, that you never get everything you want in a marriage, and you have to compromise.And it's certainly created a problem now that China can't get the kids, they can't raise the fertility level and it's not just China that's discovered that once you've got a low fertility rate, too low, I think of one, you have a problem raising it. Again, Italy's had the same problem, Iran, uh, Russia. So I think China did it too fast. And you certainly don't need to do it and loads of other countries show you that just aiming for that two to three kids figure really helps your economy and gets you onto the path to being middle-income and then a rich country. So I don't think you need to do the China one child. No. Um, the second issue, the population growth versus economic growth. What I show, what we did in this was we looked back at every country's growth rate since 1960 and I compared the per capita GDP growth, the per personal growth of an economy, it's the best way to measure how well an economy itself is really doing. And I compared that growth rate against the share of adults to kids that I was talking to you about a little earlier.Tobi;Yeah.Charlie;And where it's 50-50 roughly, between adults and kids, per capita GDP grows at 1% and that was the story of Asia in the sixties and seventies. It's still the story for a good number of countries including Nigeria today. So per capita GDP growth is about 1% when half your population can't work because they're kids. But once you get two-thirds of the population being adults, your average per capita growth in lower-income countries by half of America's wealth level, so not even lower-income, lower or middle-income countries, your per capita growth, and it averages three to 5% a year. So the structure of your population tells you what your per capita GDP growth is. So it's just... I can't see that there's any other way to explain this than you've gotta get that fertility rate down first before you can start to get the high per capita GDP growth. Um, and it's connected to the savings, of course; cause once you've got two kids instead of six, you're saving money in the bank, the bank starts to have more cash to lend out. There's more money for lending for investment. The government can borrow more cheaply so it can build infrastructure, roads and rail, electricity and cheap electricity cause interest rates are low cause the savings are high because most families are able to put some money aside at the end of the week. But that doesn't happen when 50% of the population are kids. They're not earning any money, they're not saving anything and the poor parents are trying to manage to feed five, six kids on average. You know, they've got nothing left at the end of the week to put into a bank.So the bank's got no cash. So interest rates are really high cause there's no money in the bank. Um, so money's really expensive. So the government can't afford to invest in infrastructure and if it does build electricity it has to charge a lot of money cause it's having to pay a lot of interest on the debt it's taken on. So to me, I've yet to find someone demolish the argument and uh, you know, it could happen.Tobi;Yeah.Charlie;But so far it seems you've got to get the fertility rate down first if you want to get fast growth. Now if you don't want to grow at three, four, 5% a year, you could do it really slowly like Europe did and you grow at say, one and a half, two, eventually, you get from European farming in 1800 to factories that are producing not great stuff by 1900, a hundred years later. But when I'm looking at Nigeria today, I don't want Nigeria to be waiting a hundred years to be doing what Europe took a hundred years to do. I also don't think the Chinese model of it taking 30 years, 20, 30 years but then having a population problem of being too old, I don't think that's the right solution either. But there's somewhere in between. At the moment though, Nigeria's on that long growth story, it's not yet ready for the faster growth storyTobi;On the China question, um, thinking about your answer there, is extremely low fertility or what they say "fertility below the replacement rate" a feature of the kind of explosive growth 30, 35, 40-year trajectory that we've seen in Asia. Because if you look at Korea, Korea even have worse demographic numbers than China and there was no draconian population policy, but it's kind of gone through this explosive growth phase that is even faster and bigger than China's.Charlie;Well, it's been going on for longer. So what the Koreans got right was they raised their adult literacy rate to, you know, they said about 90% by 1960. China, despite being communist and communists tend to say they really appreciate education, didn't get to over 70% literacy until 1990, sometime in the early 1990s, which is 25, 35 years later than Korea. Uh, so Korea was already booming in 1970 at a time when China was having the catastrophic mistakes of the cultural revolution and really bad growth and people feared mass famine. Well many, many did die in China in the sixties. So what I would argue is that Korea had a slower fertility decline and the growth rates were not as fast as China's but they've been growing for 50, 60 years already. So Korea's two to three times richer than China is today. But as you say, they're so ageing that they're gonna be the oldest country in the world by 2030.And what's gonna get interesting then, and I can't really answer this in the book cause we haven't seen it yet, but what's interesting about Korea and we're going to have to watch it carefully, is that you are going to end up with, not 70% adults and 30% kids, it'll be less and less working-age adults, maybe 60%, I dunno maybe eventually 50% and it'll be 50% kids and old age pensioners who can't work. And my guess is that Korean growth is going to slow back to about the 1% per capita growth that Nigeria's got at the moment because Korea's going to be too old. You know, and that's not something that I think people should be thinking about or worrying about. [People should be thinking about] Pakistan, East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa at the moment. It's [Korea is] just not a...you know, that's a problem to worry about in 50, 60 years. But it is going to be interesting to watch what does happen to growth in really old countries. Um, can pensioners actually still do work? You know, maybe they end up retiring at 70 or 75 or 80, I dunno. It's gonna be quite interesting to see.Tobi;So I mean the question then is, uh, for countries that have fertility rates that are higher than what you described in the book.Charlie;Yeah.Tobi;It then becomes how do we get it to the point where domestic savings start going up, interest rate for the domestic investment environment then benefits from that virtuous cycle. You talked about access to uh, reproductive interventions like contraception, also education, which takes us to where we started this conversation from, especially the education of women and girls, generally. I was taking a look at David Le Bris recently where he was talking about equality between siblings and inequality between siblings and how it affects the overall capital formation, whether it's physical capital or human capital in the society. So my question then is, do you see individual sort of personalized household decision-making affecting this more or it is sort of a national policy thing?Charlie;When it's something as important as family, you know, the individual decisions matter a huge amount. And as I said earlier, I've got no issues with anyone doing what they choose to do. But that big family story, I was just talking to a former minister, actually, of a... former finance minister of a country and he's got five kids, he's saying that he's been able to help fund them go to university, but he can't afford to help them buy a house cause he just hasn't got the cash. And I thought that was a really interesting example of even in a wealthier country, you know, it still matters how big that family is. You know, when I looked into this on how do you get the fertility rate down and there's been quite a lot written about it. I don't have a magic or a single answer, but the theories are first: girls if they're staying at school until they're 18, versus girls who leave school at 13. If you leave school at 13, perhaps you have your first kid at 14, maybe a second kid at 17, third kid at 20. But if you stay at school until you're 18, perhaps the first kid's at 20. So already you've reduced the fertility rate by two just by keeping girls at school. And the key figure, but just kind of remind, well tell people is the key figure is at about three to four kids per woman on average, the banking system has got deposits cash in it of about 35% of GDP, at four to five kids, it's around 30, 25 to 30. At five to six kids, which is where Nigeria is, it's about 20% of GDP. Um, so 20, 30, you know, these sort of levels. If you get to two to three kids though, if you get it below three kids, it more than doubles to about 60% of GDP.That's when banks suddenly have loads of cash. When banks have got loads of cash, there's loads of lending, suddenly access to finance isn't a problem anymore. So how do you get it below three kids? So you educate girls, there's an incentive when women are educated for them to work cause they can start to make decent money in a textile factory that you can't do unless you've got that literacy. Um, the government just telling people that low fertility is a good thing is shown to have some success. From Indonesia to India, these kinds of government campaigns suggesting lower fertility rates have made a difference. The third thing, which really surprised me cause it's such a strong correlation, is [to] stop kids [from] dying. And I was pretty upset, actually, to see the numbers where, for Nigeria, you've got a 10% chance, just over a 10% chance of dying before the age of five because you're born in Nigeria. And when I was comparing that to Covid - which the world spent, what, trillions trying to fight - with a fatality rate of about one or 2%, you think of those with more than a 10% chance of dying just before the age of five in Nigeria. Anyway, it's kind of shockingly high, but when you have such a high chance of losing a child, you tend to have more children and the correlation is really quite strong. So, if you can try and address infant, [and] young child mortality rates, which doesn't cost that much, you can see countries with Nigeria's wealth level that have a mortality rate of not over 10%, but five or even 3%. And usually, countries with such a low mortality rate then have a much lower fertility rate as well. So, people tend to have less kids when they are more confident that all their kids are going to survive childhood. So, some investment in basic healthcare for children, education of girls, contraception availability, yes it does help, and government information campaigns. You put those things together and then you get a country like Bangladesh. Bangladesh which had the same population as Nigeria about 15 years ago. But today Nigeria's got tens of millions more. But Bangladesh is growing as fast as India. Bangladesh's per capita GDP is over $2,000. And it keeps on growing at six, seven, 8% every year. Because they have on average two kids per woman, they've got savings, they don't have much foreign debt because they don't need to borrow dollars from abroad to fund their growth, because they've got their own savings, because the fertility rate is low. Muslim Bangladesh: tremendous success story over the last two or three decades.Tobi;You sort of made allowances for countries that can't quite get their savings right up to the levels where they can get the desired domestic savings and really positively affect their investment environment in a big way. And you talked about debt in the book, which would be familiar to anybody that's been in the new cycle about Nigeria currently, which is that government revenue has collapsed. Debt servicing is rapidly approaching a hundred percent of what the government can collect. And it's only a matter of time before we are talking about a debt crisis. But, like you said, a debt crisis is, like, unavoidable if you're trying to grow and you don't have to requisite domestic savings to sort of mitigate that. But this inevitably brings in the question of debt restructuring which, again, some would also argue does not help you grow. So, in terms of just the sheer macroeconomics management of this, how do you go about it?Charlie;It's tough. The book's arguing, obviously, that a whole chunk of this stuff is really long term. You got to get the education right. So, you've got to have enough teachers and that takes, well, at best Korea did it in 15, 20 years. But even if you've got the education, then you've got to get the fertility rate down. And that takes at best 10 years to get it down by about two kids per woman. Nigeria's at 5.3 kids or so at the moment. It needs to be below three to have the local savings. So, we're talking at least 15 years, even if every priority was made today to try and improve education, do all this reproductive education and so on. So, the governments then have the choice of what do you do? I mean, if you're going to wait 15 years, you can grow at 1% a year per person. But you'll find the population is getting pretty cross because you've got all these other countries in the world growing at three, four, 5% per person every year. You know, why is my country growing at one [percent]? So, the politicians then...[it] becomes so attractive to go out and borrow and, you know, every country, not every single one, but the vast majority of debt defaults in the second half of the 20th century were in high fertility countries. The fertility rate I think was around, on average, five - five kids per woman was the average fertility rate in countries that defaulted in the second half of the 20th century. Wherever they were in the world. A lot of them were in Latin America in the debt crisis of 1980s. So firstly, debt crises are really common in high fertility countries because governments say I want to speed up my growth and they borrow when the markets let them.And we've certainly seen that in Africa in the last 10 years too. And then they borrow too much and then they go into default and then they can lose maybe a decade. And that is what happened in Latin America in the 1980s. But the alternative is to only grow at 1% a year. And yeah, you can avoid debt default. I'm not saying every high fertility country defaults. I'm saying almost all the countries that have defaulted are high fertility. So, you can settle for the low growth but if you don't want to settle for the low growth, the debt becomes a very attractive way to try and get faster growth. But it causes a problem. I end up finding roughly two other ways that you can try.Tobi;Okay.Charlie;And grow faster. Is it okay to jump on to those?Tobi;Yeah, go ahead please.Charlie;Yeah. First is to try and bring in as much foreign investment as you can. Cause you haven't got enough local savings, you don't want to take on too much debt cause eventually you'll default. So, you can try and make yourself very attractive for foreign investors. Foreign direct investors. The only problem with that model is that those foreign direct investors do also want their cheap electricity and the good infrastructure that unfortunately high fertility countries haven't got the money to pay for. So, it's difficult to get in a lot of foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment in China, I was just reading a really good book by David Lubin, who's the chief economist of Citi for Emerging Markets and he did a book called Dance of the Trillions. Highly recommend, it's brilliant on emerging markets. And he says FDI suddenly started in China in the 1990s. Now, I know why. My book is explaining why I think, which is you finally had a literate population, 70% literacy and you also had the low fertility rate. So, you had the high savings, you had the good infrastructure. But the FDI didn't come 10 years before into China. It only really picked up in the 1990s. So, the point of then is, I mean yeah, try and get some [FDI] if you can, but the last option that I can see other than to just, perhaps, try to go full Stalinist, kind of communist, take control of every part of the economy. But even that still education and low fertility really helps... Um, the last option which any country can do is to run a current account surplus, I think. Have a currency level that's so cheap that you are running a trade surplus. A current account surplus, which is obviously trade plus services and remittances and so on.If you've got a surplus on that current account, you are bringing dollars into the economy and those dollars help reduce interest rates. And Nigeria saw that actually in 2005, six, seven and eight when the oil price was booming. Nigeria had that flood of dollars coming into the economy. Interest rates were really low below inflation and investment was relatively cheap and easy to finance. Now it's a problem to manage when it's a commodity-driven boom because commodities then bust. So, all that flood of money that came in suddenly disappeared again, you know, once the oil price collapsed there wasn't that current account surplus anymore. But if you run a cheap currency policy to make sure you always run a current account surplus, then that helps give you that supply of savings that you can then use to start investing. So that seems to me one of the few ways that a low-income country that's got not enough local savings, doesn't want to wait forever until its fertility rate's down [and] low enough to build the domestic savings, this is one way that looks sustainable that can bring in some foreign cash to help support growth.Tobi;But one minor aside on FDI and you can really correct me here if I'm wrong, wouldn't that really be a bit unstable? Because if you have loads of FDI, if other indicators are really working in your favour and at the slightest hint of a crisis, all that money then flows out.Charlie;Yeah. Well, I'll just differentiate between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. And, again, David Lubin's book is very good on this because the Washington consensus, which is this set of policies that were drawn up by policy makers around 1989, 1990, it said countries should welcome foreign direct investment. Building factories that it's pretty hard to move out of the country, that that should be welcomed. But when the original guys who drew up the Washington Consensus wrote down the kind of 10 principles, they weren't that keen on foreign portfolio investment. This is the hot money that will include a lot of my investors who will come in and buy shares in companies in the Nigerian Stock Exchange and might come in and buy bonds. And I think it's fair to say that that money can leave in times of trouble and doesn't really support...isn't necessarily as supportive [of growth] and that money we count on the capital account because it is foreign capital.What I was talking about on the current account surplus was obviously the trade surplus, the remittances, the services and so on. So, I think it's more debatable. I think a number of countries have restricted foreign portfolio flows into equity market or the bond market. And if they've got other things going for them, like a low fertility rate, they can kind of get away with that. Um, what I'm highlighting is that for some countries they just don't have that choice. And when America was short of capital in the 19th century, it was British capital that went over and built their railways, that bought all the shares in their infrastructure companies. The Brits owned America for much of the 19th century and then the French actually owned most of Russia. Uh, the railways and the ports and some of the industry, the coal mines [were] very significantly owned by French investors, portfolio funds, and portfolio guys are there to make money as well. You know, they're there to make profit and if you're making good profit, five, 10% a year or whatever sitting in Nigerian equity market, people will stay, and it won't leave. They'll be happy to stay there for many, many years as people are and have been doing in India, actually, since India's education fertility and electricity numbers have all come together in the last 10 years in a really good way. Foreign portfolio guys are saying, "Hey, we wanna put our money into the Indian stock market too." And Indian shares are pretty expensive right now because of that. But the money doesn't want to leave. It'll leave when policy mistakes are made but fundamentally doesn't want to leave. However, I don't deny that there is a reasonable argument you can make to say we're going to choose foreign direct investment, we're going to be more restrictive on foreign portfolio investment. Because that can be more volatile. It can leave quicker. And I wouldn't argue with that. Well, I mean we could debate it, but I think it's harder to prove that you must have foreign portfolio investments to thrive. I think the current account surplus is a better policy choice because it's in your control. Foreign portfolio investors and what they do, that's not in your control.Tobi;One question that stayed with me throughout your book, which is a bit silent in the book itself, maybe it's implied, you can tell me, is that it's really difficult to find a country at any particular point where all these three factors align at the same time. Where you have the requisite adult literacy rate, electricity and fertility, they rarely align at the same point in time in the history of any one country. Because your book did not really distinguish between any particular political preference or institutional arrangements, which I like that, but what institutional arrangement favours the consistency for all these factors to sort of come together, uh, in the economic history basically of a country. Because we know that political leaders tend to favour what benefits their ambition at any particular point in time, you know? And a lot of these things are investments that do pay off in the long run, you know? Like we talked about on savings, a lot of political leaders would want to borrow a lot of money and then leave the debt crisis to the next administration.Charlie;Yeah. Yeah. Happens a lot.Tobi;Yeah. You know, and so many other things, whether you are investing in electricity or education or whatever, they don't really want to do the hard work. They want to do the easy stuff and just leave it to the next guy.So, what institutional arrangements have you found in your observation and study of this that favours the patient consistent build-up to the alignment of these three factors?Charlie;I think it's really, um, it's kind of interesting actually because in each chapter I try and say which countries are at the right place for industrialization, education, which countries are at the right place for electricity, and which countries are at the right place for fertility. Perhaps I didn't properly bring that together in one chapter at the end to say, "so, who's the fast growth story?" But right now, the countries that have brought them together are Vietnam, India, Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and I think those five countries, Morocco actually six, um, those six countries should be the countries that will show the really good growth for the next 30 to 40 years. Um it's going to be great. And I'm then trying to highlight who's closest to joining them on a 10 year view. Um, Pakistan and Egypt both got big debt problems right now, but five to 10 years they could be joining that group as well and Ghana and actually Kenya and I would argue southern Nigeria could be, could be there in the 2030s.Um, so I am trying to say when they come together. The question you are asking, though, about institutions or perhaps leadership and so on, I think is a really important one because I guess this book in lots of ways is an argument against Why Nations Fail, which was a really interesting book; and [it] said it is all about institutions and the right institutions and that's why if you walk a kilometre across the US border into Mexico, things are run so very differently. It's got to be the institutions, that book argues, that makes the difference between a country succeeding or not. And what I'm arguing is that I don't think that's true. I think you appear to have the good institutions when everything else is running well and you appear to have the terrible institutions when you don't have the education or you don't have the electricity or you don't have the low fertility or worst of all, you haven't got any of them.So, a country that hasn't got any of them, like Niger, Chad, Somalia, you know, these are countries in a terrible place. But I'm saying that they can't have good institutions cause there's no money in the economy, there are not enough educated people in the economy. There's just no way that you're going to get a good setup in those countries. And actually, even at the beginning when, at the first 10 years or so, when you've got these things all coming together, you still don't think the institutions are good. You know, you go to India today, people don't think, "wow, this is a brilliantly run civil service. It's so uncorrupt[ed]." Such wonderful institutions everywhere. They don't say that. They don't say that about Philippines' Duterte, the president who's been just recently retired, by people who were worried the institutions found it difficult to control his populism. And yet Philippines boomed under Duterte, and India's boomed under Modi and countries like Korea boomed even with a level of corruption that means in the last 10 years we've seen four presidents go to jail for corruption.Um, so I argue that the better institutions come afterwards and that's why four presidents have gone to jail in Korea because they're now getting the institutions better. And I read a really good book about why democracies die by some American academics about three or four years ago now. I recommend it. And they pointed out that Latin America, across Latin America, they just copied the American institutions. They said, look, what's working in the Americas is North America. It's United States, they've got it right. Let's copy their institutions, we'll put them into my country, be it Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, whoever. And then they discovered that actually if the human capital is not as advanced, people will undermine the institutions. And you arguably saw Trump try it in the United States itself, but the human capital and the rest of the place was good enough to stop him from going too far.This is all debatable stuff, but you know, this is... So, I think the institutions do work when everything else has been working for some time and before then it's very hard to argue that the institutions work or can make a huge difference. I think the fundamental economic reality of are you growing at 1% a year or three to 5% a year per capita? That isn't about the institutions. Having said all of that? I think there's no doubt that you can have, if you're lucky, very lucky, really good leadership. A leader like Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, who has got vision, understands or is lucky, but he prioritized education and all the rest, who gets it right and takes the country onto a new path. When I think of some of the most obvious successes, a lot of them are small Singapore, Hong Kong, even Taiwan really.And maybe it's just tougher to do it in a country the size of Nigeria with over 200 million people or, or uh, India with over a billion, which is why it took India so long or Brazil. But I remember even the French president, Charles de Gaulle, I think in the sixties or seventies said, "how is it possible to govern a country with 350 types of cheese?".Um, and in India you'd say, "how can you govern a country of over a billion people with that many different dialects, different customs, different local cultures?" Um, and it is hard, but once you get these fundamentals of education, electricity and fertility right, suddenly, it looks like you can govern well. So, I want to think there is a role for good leadership, um, and it can make a difference and it does help. I just think history's telling us over the last 300 years that we can't count on luck and that lucky guy who happens to be the right leader to come in, sometimes woman who can come in, and push reform in the right way. What we can count on is that if you get the education, electricity and fertility numbers right, you will get out of poverty, you will get better off and your kids will have a much, much better future and your grandchildren even more so.So, I think that's probably one area [where] my book differs from many in the last 10, 15 years is saying, "I don't think it is so much about the things that we all like to pay attention to [like] who's going to win the next election and what are their different policies going to be?" And you know, most of the time I'm arguing it doesn't really make as much difference as we'd like to think.Tobi;Now, another point that came in the later chapters in the book, which I found interesting, and which is quite also a bit of a political issue right now, surrounds migration. Uh, a lot of Nigerians are leaving, I mean it's become even a social media trend and meme - "who is...Charlie;The Japa trend.Tobi;Who is leaving next, uh, yeah, yeah, Japa. So, like, who is leaving next, you know? Right. But you argued in the book that as countries grow richer, there will be more migration not less because what you often hear is that the reason why people are living is because the country is so bad and they're looking for a way to make better lives for themselves, which is true anyway. So, and that the way to really stop this migration wave is if you can improve the domestic economy and then suddenly you see a drop, but you are saying no, um, we are actually going to see more migration as countries grow richer. Now, how do you suppose that this can be resolved with the current, should I say, political environment in Europe and to some extent in America that is increasingly seeing migration from poorer countries as a problem, right? Is it a case of as countries grow richer, then the migration demographic just, sort of, changes to more educated people leaving and less tension and political rancour about migration?Charlie;Um, I doubt, I mean, I doubt that these political problems about immigration in Europe and The States are going to disappear. Cause we've seen election results just in the last two, three weeks in Italy with the far right becoming dominant, in Sweden as well. Where they took in a huge amount of, I think, it was Syrian refugees and before that Somalian refugees. Um, and you're trying to integrate people coming from a country with very low adult literacy into, particularly in Somalia's case, into a country like Sweden, which had a hundred percent, nearly a hundred percent adult literacy already by 1900. That's an integration process that takes generations. As America's still struggling 150 years after civil war, still struggling to manage integration. So, I think that political problem is going to carry on, but it is going to get more acute for Europe, um, and eventually United States because Europe is this aging old continent that hasn't got enough people.I was in Germany two weeks ago and there, there was a surprising number of industrialists saying "we must have a much more open border situation." I said, well, you know, that'll be really interesting to see if you do that because the backlash that we're seeing elsewhere says there is a limit to what countries politics seem ready to accept. And, I think, I even think the Brexit vote was about that. It was about the East European migration into the UK, which had the most open approach to east European countries from Poland and Hungary and Czech coming to the UK. Every other country in Europe kept in a border, well, restrictions, but the UK didn't. And I think that backfired on the UK when it had a Brexit vote that said, "oh, we have too many Polish people eating sausage in our supermarkets. And I, I, yeah, I mean really people cared.I don't understand it. I love the variety obviously, but while I don't understand, while I don't feel the same, [some] people do. So, I think that's the political problem. And even educated people who are needed by the economy might find it hard to integrate, say, beyond the bigger urban centres. I was really shocked when I was writing the book and I was looking at what happens when you've got an educated population but a high fertility rate. What happens across history is people leave. Cause there aren't enough jobs at home. Cause the fertility rate's so high, there's thousands, millions of people coming into the workforce. The savings aren't there to help create the jobs. So, they leave and it's the Philippines, you know, in the 20th century, it's Pakistanis now, where a number of people are well educated, not everyone sadly. But 150 years ago, it was Ireland, and it was Norway, and they were sending their excess population to America, and it caused huge controversy.There was, you know, rioting between, kind of, the Italian immigrants and the Irish immigrants in New York. T

Squawk Box Europe Express
SQUAWK BOX, WEDNESDAY 18TH JANUARY, 2023

Squawk Box Europe Express

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2023 27:40


Stocks in Japan surge as the yen posts its worst session in almost three years and the JGBs fall back as the BoJ insists it will continue its yield curve control procedure. We hear from Polish President Andrzej Duda who says that Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the back foot in Ukraine, calling on allies to further increase support for the nation. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner tells this channel that a trade war with the U.S. must be avoided and that Brussels should work hand-in-hand with Washington to combat inflation. In banking news, Goldman Sachs posts its worst profit miss in almost ten years with rival Morgan Stanley also underperforming. However, U.S. bank CEOs in Davos predicted a more gentle recession this year. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Zurich as Beijing reports a steady increase in full-year FDI.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Irish Times Inside Business
Davos: Politics, business and climate change converge at the WEF

Irish Times Inside Business

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2023 32:49


Climate change is one of the themes of this year's World Economic Forum in Switzerland. Markets Correspondent, Joe Brennan, reports from Davos where a recent winter heatwave means the highest town in Europe has significantly less snowfall than usual. The Taoiseach, Finance Minister and a delegation from the IDA are there as part of Ireland's attempt to court FDI. All three parties are awaiting news from Microsoft on how many Irish jobs will be among the plans announced today to cut its workforce by 10,000, globally. Berlin Correspondent, Derek Scally, reports on how Europe's most senior data regulatory body has ruled the Data Protection Commission in Dublin has failed to investigate, with due diligence, data collection and processing at Facebook and Instagram. Critics say that may have deprived the exchequer of a multibillion euro windfall. With any subscription you'll get unlimited access to the very best in unique quality journalism from The Irish Times. Subscribe today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fully Threaded Radio
Episode #184 - Resolutions

Fully Threaded Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2023 156:03


Premium locknut supplier J Lanfranco sees big opportunities appearing, as the cosmopolitan Jason Baines leads their North American push (1:47:01). Likewise, hard charger Matt Boyd is helping to guide Parker Fasteners forge ahead toward their vision of continued expansion and growth (28:28).  In contrast, the FDI took a dramatic hit to close the year just ended, and this time forward looking sentiment sagged as well.  Fastener Technology International editor Mike McNulty discusses the details with Solution Industries GM Tim Vath on the Fastener News Report (1:09:46).  On the Fastener Training Minute, thread guru Carmen Vertullo talks salt spray testing for alloys. PLUS: Fastener Fair USA show manager Bob Chiricosta calls in from Nashville, site of the upcoming show (57:45).  Brian and Eric resolve to continue improving across the board, hopefully wearing new gloves. Run time: 02:36:03

Econ Dev Show
79: Europe and European FDI with W Ford Graham

Econ Dev Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2023 40:21


W Ford Graham is an expert on investment from Europe into the United States. In this episode, we pick his brain on this timely geopolitical economic development topic. Unfortunately, Ford's audio isn't great in some parts. (This was totally my fault!) But the episode is so relavent that I didn't want you to miss it. Like this show? Please leave us a review here (https://econdevshow.com/rate-this-podcast/) — even one sentence helps! Special Guest: W Ford Graham.

Ultim'ora
Regionali Lombardia, Santanchè "Apporto di Fdi sarà più consistente"

Ultim'ora

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2023 1:13


"Alle prossime elezioni regionali in Lombardia l'obiettivo di Fdi è quello di convincere gli elettori lombardi che avranno altri 5 anni con il presidente Fontana e con un partito come Fratelli d'Italia che cresce e avrà un peso molto più più importante". Lo ha detto il ministro del Turismo, Daniela Santanchè, oggi pomeriggio a Palazzo Lombardia, a margine della presentazione dei candidati di Fratelli d'Italia alle prossime regionali di febbraio.xb5/trl/gsl

Ultim'ora
Regionali Lombardia, Santanchè "Apporto di Fdi sarà più consistente"

Ultim'ora

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2023 1:13


"Alle prossime elezioni regionali in Lombardia l'obiettivo di Fdi è quello di convincere gli elettori lombardi che avranno altri 5 anni con il presidente Fontana e con un partito come Fratelli d'Italia che cresce e avrà un peso molto più più importante". Lo ha detto il ministro del Turismo, Daniela Santanchè, oggi pomeriggio a Palazzo Lombardia, a margine della presentazione dei candidati di Fratelli d'Italia alle prossime regionali di febbraio.xb5/trl/gsl

Focus economia
Carburanti, il Governo ragiona se intervenire

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2023


Oggi pomeriggio si è tenuto un incontro a Palazzo Chigi tra il presidente del Consiglio, Giorgia Meloni, il ministro dell Economia e delle Finanze, Giancarlo Giorgetti, e il Comandante Generale della Guardia di Finanza, Gen. Giuseppe Zafarana. Al centro della riunione fare il punto e valutare ogni possibile ulteriore azione di contrasto alle speculazioni in atto sui prezzi dei carburante. Secondo la rilevazione periodica dei prezzi medi dei carburanti sulla rete di distribuzione italiana del ministero dell Ambiente, questa settimana c'è stato un aumento complessivo di oltre il 10% rispetto alla settimana scorsa per la benzina e del 9,39% del gasolio. Ma, spiega lo stesso Ministero, gli aumenti sono in linea con rialzo accise. Ne parliamo con Gabriele Masini, direttore di Staffetta Quotidiana - Quotidiano delle fonti di energia. Priolo, Lukoil cede la raffineria alla cipriota Goi Energy È stato firmato l'accordo per la cessione della raffineria Lukoil di Priolo a Goi Energy. Lo ha comunicato ieri sera in una nota Goi Energy annunciando di aver raggiunto con Litasco, controllata al 100% da Lukoil, l'accordo per l'acquisizione dell'impianto Isab. "Siamo lieti di annunciare di aver raggiunto un accordo con Litasco. Siamo profondamente consapevoli dell'importanza di Isab per l'economia italiana, per la Sicilia e per la comunita' locale" Lo ha detto Michael Bobrov, amministratore Delegato di Goi Energy, riferendosi all'accordo di acquisizione da Lukoil della raffineria Isab di Priolo. Dall'impianto proviene circa il 20% dei prodotti raffinati consumati in Italia ma, in quanto controllata da un gruppo russo, la raffineria rischiava di avere problemi di operatività a causa degli embarghi contro Mosca decisi dall'Europa. Il destino di Priolo ha anche un impatto rilevante sulla questione prezzi carburanti, dato che la raffinazione incide sul prezzo finale al consumatore. Se Priolo si fosse fermata il prezzo dei carburanti sarebbe alle stelle. Il closing è previsto entro la fine di marzo. Approfondiamo il tema con Sara Deganello de Il Sole 24 Ore. Tremonti: "Il Mes va ratificato, ma trasformato per gli investimenti finanziati da eurobond" "Giorgia Meloni ha detto in sostanza che non vede alternative al voto italiano sul Mes, e che però intende ridiscuterne la funzione. Sono totalmente d'accordo con lei", spiega al Sole 24 Ore Giulio Tremonti, ora presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera. La riforma del Mes, ricorda Tremonti, sarà votata da tutti i Paesi ma discussa da nessuno. Alla base delle polemiche c'è questo vuoto, che però è cruciale. Ora invece "ci sono le condizioni per fare una vera riflessione". Nello specifico, per Tremonti, bisogna impiegare il Mes nella costruzione di nuovi efficaci meccanismi europei, collegandolo con l'emissione di Eurobond com' era nell'idea originaria. Questo permetterebbe di superare uno dei vizi principali dell'impostazione seguita fin qui dalle politiche economiche Ue. Ne parliamo proprio con Giulio Tremonti, deputato (FDI) e presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera, ex ministro dell'Economia governi Berlusconi.

Boardroom Hustle
EP. 78 - Creating a Tech-Wise Boardroom - Why isn't tech at the front of every board's mind?

Boardroom Hustle

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2023 24:23


You could be a banana farm. An insurer. A school network. It doesn't matter. Digital tech is now so integral to day-to-day life that, whatever business you're in, you're now a technology business. So why don't more boards have tech at the top of their minds? Why are Australia's ASX toppers the top tech laggers? That forms the topic of conversation today between board directors Pia Turcinov and Alan Jones and FDI's Paul Smith. The conversation spans: Why techy directors are seen as risky. Creating bridges in to the boardroom that can then grow more organically - from digital innovation subcommittees, to just one expert at the table. Getting the supply by reframing technologists as innovators. Speaking the language the board is speaking right now. Not just bringing in the technology of innovation, but also the processes of innovation – including, comfort with failure. Pia Turcinov is a Non-Executive Director and Innovation Strategist, and founder of Venture X and Fund WA. Alan John is a startup founder mentor and tech investor, who is a partner with M8 Ventures, and the chair of Catalysr, an entrepreneurship program focused on marginalised migrants and refugees.

Boardroom Hustle
Ep. 79 - Creating a Tech-Wise Boardroom: How to bring tech-mindedness into the boardroom?

Boardroom Hustle

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2023 19:44


It's part two of last ep's convo with FDI's Paul Smith and tech & governance experts, Pia Turcinov and Alan Jones. This time they're thinking about how those ‘dangerous and disruptive tech folk' can reframe what they offer, in order to get a seat at the boardroom table in the first place.  The conversation spans: Why techy directors are seen as risky. Creating bridges in to the boardroom that can then grow more organically - from digital innovation subcommittees, to just one expert at the table. Getting the supply by reframing technologists as innovators. Speaking the language the board is speaking right now. Not just bringing in the technology of innovation, but also the processes of innovation – including, comfort with failure. Pia Turcinov is a Non-Executive Director and Innovation Strategist, and founder of Venture X and Fund WA. Alan John is a startup founder mentor and tech investor, who is a partner with M8 Ventures, and the chair of Catalysr, an entrepreneurship program focused on marginalised migrants and refugees.

BFM :: Morning Brief
AMCHAM Cautiously Optimistic For 2023

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2023 11:59


Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Malaysia grew to a record RM861 billion at the end of 3Q23, with the US as the second largest investor contributing 12%. However with a global recession potentially on the horizon, will investors remain upbeat on Malaysia? Siobhan Das of AMCHAM weighs in on business sentiment among its members and their policy wishlist for the government.Image credit: Shutterstock

BFM :: General
AMCHAM Cautiously Optimistic For 2023

BFM :: General

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2023 11:59


Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Malaysia grew to a record RM861 billion at the end of 3Q23, with the US as the second largest investor contributing 12%. However with a global recession potentially on the horizon, will investors remain upbeat on Malaysia? Siobhan Das of AMCHAM weighs in on business sentiment among its members and their policy wishlist for the government.Image credit: Shutterstock

Thoughts on the Market
End-of-Year Encore: Global Thematics - What's Behind India's Growth Story?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 29, 2022 7:31


Original Release on December 7th, 2022: As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what's driving this growth and how it may create once-in-a-generation opportunities. Head of Global Thematic and Public Policy Research Michael Zezas and Chief India Equity Strategist Ridham Desai discuss.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Thematic and Public Policy Research. Ridham Desai: And I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's Chief India Equity Strategist. Michael Zezas: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss India's growth story over the next decade and some key investment themes that global investors should pay attention to. It's Wednesday, December 7th, at 7 a.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: Our listeners are likely well aware that over the past 25 years or so, India's growth has lagged only China's among the world's largest economies. And here at Morgan Stanley, we believe India will continue to outperform. In fact, India is now entering a new era of growth, which creates a once in a generation shift in opportunities for investors. We estimate that India's GDP is poised to more than doubled to $7.5 trillion by 2031, and its market capitalization could grow 11% annually to reach $10 trillion. Essentially, we expect India to drive about a fifth of global growth in the coming decade. So Ridham, what in your view are the main drivers behind India's growth story? Ridham Desai: Mike, the full global trends of demographics, digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization that we keep discussing about in our research files are favoring this new India. The new India, we argue, is benefiting from three idiosyncratic factors. The first one is India is likely to increase its share of global exports thanks to a surge in offshoring. Second, India is pursuing a distinct model for digitalization of its economy, supported by a public utility called India Stack. Operating at population scale India stack is a transaction led, low cost, high volume, small ticket size system with embedded lending. The digital revolution has already changed the way India handles documents, the way it invests and makes payments and it is now set to transform the way it lends, spends and ensures. With private credit to GDP at just 57%, a credit boom is in the offing, in our view. The third driver is India's energy consumption and energy sources, which are changing in a disruptive fashion with broad economic benefits. On the back of greater access to energy, we estimate per capita energy consumption is likely to rise by 60% to 1450 watts per day over the next decade. And with two thirds of this incremental supply coming from renewable sources, well in short, with this self-help story in play as you said, India could continue to outperform the world on GDP growth in the coming decade. Michael Zezas: So let's dig into some of the specifics here. You mentioned the big surge in offshoring, which has resulted in India's becoming "the office of the world". Will this continue long term? Ridham Desai: Yes, Mike. In the post-COVID environment, global CEOs appear more comfortable with work from home and also work from India. So the emergence of distributed delivery models, along with tighter labor markets globally, has accelerated outsourcing to India. In fact, the number of global in-house captive centers that opened in India over the past two years was double of that in the prior four years. During the pandemic years, the number of people employed in this industry in India rose by almost 800,000 to 5.1 million. And India's share in global services trade rose by 60 basis points to 4.3%. In the coming decade we think the number of people employed in India for jobs outside the country is likely to at least double to 11 million. And we think that global spending on outsourcing could rise from its current level of U.S. dollar 180 billion per year to about 1/2 trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. Michael Zezas: In addition to being "the office of the world", you see India as a "factory to the world" with manufacturing going up. What evidence are we seeing of India benefiting from China moving away from the global supply chain and shifting business activity away from China? Ridham Desai: We are anticipating a wave of manufacturing CapEx owing to government policies aimed at lifting corporate profits share and GDP via tax cuts, and some hard dollars on the table for investing in specific sectors. Multinationals are more optimistic than ever before about investing in India, and that's evident in the all-time high that our MNC sentiment index shows, and the government is encouraging investments by building both infrastructure as well as supplying land for factories. The trends outlined in Morgan Stanley's Multipolar World Thesis, a document that you have co authored, Mike, and the cheap labor that India is now able to offer relative to, say, China are adding to the mix. Indeed, the fact is that India is likely to also be a big consumption market, a hard thing for a lot of multinational corporations to ignore. We are forecasting India's per capita GDP to rise from $2,300 USD to about $5,200 USD in the next ten years. This implies that India's income pyramid offers a wide breadth of consumption, with the number of rich households likely to quintuple from 5 million to 25 million, and the middle class households more than doubling to 165 million. So all these are essentially aiding the story on India becoming a factory to the world. And the evidence is in the sharp jump in FDI that we are already seeing, the daily news flows of how companies are ramping up manufacturing in India, to both gain access to its market and to export to other countries. Michael Zezas: So given all these macro trends we've been discussing, what sectors within India's economy do you think are particularly well-positioned to benefit both short term and longer term? Ridham Desai: Three sectors are worth highlighting here. The coming credit boom favors financial services firms. The rise in per capita income and discretionary income implies that consumer discretionary companies should do well. And finally, a large CapEx cycle could lead to a boom for industrial businesses. So financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. Michael Zezas: Finally, what are the biggest potential impediments and risks to India's success? Ridham Desai: Of course, things could always go wrong. We would include a prolonged global recession or sluggish growth, adverse outcomes in geopolitics and/or domestic politics. India goes to the polls in 2024, so another election for the country to decide upon. Policy errors, shortages of skilled labor, I would note that as a key risk. And steep rises in energy and commodity prices in the interim as India tries to change its energy sources. So all these are risk factors that investors should pay attention to. That said, we think that the pieces are in place to make this India's decade.Michael Zezas: Ridham, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ridham Desai: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.

VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận
Tiêu điểm - Nghệ An: Thành công từ chiến lược cải thiện môi trường đầu tư

VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 8:23


- Năm 2022, trong khi nhiều tỉnh, thành phố chững lại, thậm chí thụt lùi thì Nghệ An có sự bứt phá ngoạn mục, lọt Top 10 về thu hút vốn đầu tư nước ngoài (FDI). Phía sau dòng vốn đầu tư nói chung, đặc biệt là dòng vốn FDI là nỗ lực không ngừng của tỉnh trong chiến lược cải cách thực chất môi trường đầu tư, kinh doanh, tạo điều kiện thuận lợi nhất cho nhà đầu tư. Tác giả : Sỹ Đức/VOV1 Chủ đề : nghệ an, thu hút, đầu tư --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1sukien/support

Ideas Untrapped
MUDDLING THROUGH - BANGLADESH'S DEVELOPMENT JOURNEY

Ideas Untrapped

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 85:51


Bangladesh has transformed tremendously in the last twenty-five years. Average incomes have more than quadrupled, and many of its human development indicators have improved alongside. It has also become an export powerhouse with its garment industry, and generally a shining example of development - though things are far from perfect. Five decades ago, when Bangladesh became an independent country, many were not hopeful about its chances of development. So how did Bangladesh turn its story around? Well, it turns out the history of its transformation is longer than credited - and the process is more complex than what is cleanly presented.I could not think of a better person to help me unpack the Bangladeshi miracle than Dr. Akhtar Mahmood. He is an economist and was a lead private sector specialist for the World Bank Group - where he worked in various parts of the world for three decades on privatization, state enterprise reforms, investment climate, competitiveness, and more broadly private sector development. He has written some excellent books (see embedded links), and his column for the Dhaka Tribune is one of my wisest sources of economic development commentary.TranscriptTobi;Welcome to the show Akhtar Mahmood. It's a pleasure talking to you. I am very fascinated and curious about Bangladesh, and you are my number one option for such a journey. It's a pleasure, personally, for me to be having these conversations. I've been reading your column for about a year now with the Dhaka Tribune, and I've learned so much. They are very perceptive, and I'm going to be putting up links to some of my favourites in the show notes for this episode. Welcome once again, and thank you so much for doing this.Akhtar;Thank you very much for having me. Thanks, Tobi.Tobi;There's so much that I want to talk to you about, as you'd imagine, but let me start right at the end, which is now. There has been a lot of attention on Bangladesh, recently, at least in my own orbit, there have been two quite detailed and interesting columns in the Financial Times about Bangladesh. There is also Stefan Dercon's book, which used Bangladesh as a positive case for what he was describing about the development process. But also, there's the issue of what's going on right now with the global economy. First, it started with COVID and how the economy suddenly stopped, and all the reverberation that comes with that - the supply chain, and now, a lot of countries are going through a sort of sovereign debt crisis and Bangladesh, again, is in the spotlight. So, I just want you to give me an overview, and how this, sort of, blends with countries that put so much into development…you know, in terms of policy, in terms of the things they are doing right, in terms of investment and attracting investment, and the exposure to these sorts of global economic risks and volatility. [This is] because, usually, what you get in Western discourse is that a lot of countries are victims of some of these risks because of some of the wrong policy decisions they make. But in the case of Bangladesh, at least to my knowledge, nothing like that is going on. And yet, it is usually talked about as a very exposed country in that regard. I know you wrote a column recently about this. So I just want you to give me a brief [insight]—is there anything to worry about? How do countries that are trying to get rich, that are trying to do things right, how do they usually manage these sorts of global risks?Akhtar;Right? I think, inevitably, we'll have to go a bit into the history of how we came here. But since you started with the current situation, let me briefly comment on that, and then maybe I'll go to the history. Right now, yes, like most other countries, we are facing challenges, but I think there has been a bit of hype about how serious the challenge is, in terms of the risk of a debt default, the risk of foreign exchange reserves going down very sharply. And I think there is a bit of the Sri Lanka effect, and then also the Pakistan effect, as people are trying to put Bangladesh in the same bracket, which I think is very, very misplaced. I think the IMF has made it clear, [not only] in its latest country report, which came out in March 2022 but also in many recent statements, that Bangladesh has both a solvency situation and a liquidity situation. As you know [that] the solvency is typically measured by the external debt to GDP ratio, one of the ratios is external debt by GDP and the liquidity is measured by debt service requirements - the external debt service requirements by the export earnings ratio. And there are these certain thresholds, and if you go beyond that, it's considered a bit risky. Bangladesh on both these accounts is much below the threshold. So there's already a lot of headroom in the sense that even if things get worse over the next few months and maybe a year or two, Bangladesh would still be able to manage the situation. So I just wanted to make that clear at the beginning. Now, that doesn't mean that there aren't other issues in Bangladesh, issues which have been brewing for quite some time. For example, many of us are concerned with the efficiency of public expenditures. We know of projects where there have been cost overruns. Some of it may be for genuine reasons, some of it may be related to corruption, which sadly still remains a serious problem in Bangladesh. I feel that I've written about it, and you may have read some of these articles about the spectre of rising cronyism, which, again, is not surprising; when an economy grows as fast as Bangladesh's has, there are certain people who become economically powerful. And at some stage they acquire political power as well, and then you start seeing the problem of cronyism. So we have that, we have a serious problem in the banking sector with a lot of non-performing loans. I'm not suggesting that we don't have serious problems, we do. But there is a disconnect between the typical headlines and where the real problems lie in Bangladesh.  Now, this may be a good moment to bring up a little bit of history, and I can go deeper into it. The Bangladesh economy has certain resilience. And I just want to comment on that. One which is not discussed much, because the story often is about garments and remittances, is the transformation that has happened in the rural areas. It started with agriculture, it actually started with rice production, which is the most important crop in Bangladesh. And then it expanded into other crops, and then even non-farm activities in the rural areas, we can go into the details of this later. But agriculture provides a certain resilience. And we saw that again during COVID. Because the agricultural activities in Bangladesh were not affected that much by COVID, and that was a big benefit. The other is the unleashing of an entrepreneurial spirit in Bangladesh. And this spirit has been unleashed across the board, so it's not just some large conglomerates or some large government manufacturers who have become entrepreneurial. This is something which has happened across the board, from small farmers to large conglomerates. And that, I think, is a big asset for the country. Because we don't have natural resources; unlike Nigeria, we don't have natural resources. In some ways, it's actually a good thing. Because then we are forced to use other assets and latent entrepreneurship… you know, Albert Hirschman, the famous economist, wrote a book in 1956, which is a classic, on the strategy of economic development, and he made a very interesting comment. He said, in developing countries, you have a lot of latent resources. In developed countries, the task is how to allocate the resources you have; how to best allocate them. In developing countries, it is about bringing out the latent resources you have; and entrepreneurship is one of the latent resources developing countries have, but many countries have not been able to bring that out and make use of it. Bangladesh has, and that gives a certain resilience to the economy. So yes, the shocks are going to affect us, especially because our major industry, in fact, is export-oriented, which is garments. So that is affected by the shocks, but unlike commodity prices, export earnings don't fluctuate that much. And the industry has proven to be resilient over the years.Tobi;Yeah, I'm glad you touched on history because, really, that's where I wanted to start. But I just want to get the pulse of the moment and how to make sense of all the headlines that we're seeing around. So usually, and I'll refer to the two pieces I've read in the FT [Financial Times] recently that I referenced in my first question. The development trajectory of Bangladesh is usually dated as something that started around 1990. But Bangladesh became an independent country two decades before that. So my question then is: that intervening period before that sort of consensus about the takeoff point, what were the things that were brewing in the background that culminated in that takeoff? I know a lot of things went down, and just to mention that one of the reasons I'm very interested in Bangladesh is that it sort of defies some of the seductive examples of development and progress - the Asian tigers, you know, so to speak - where things seem to be very clear, the prescriptions are very precise, you need to do this and do this. Bangladesh seems like a regular country - like Nigeria, with its history, its complexities, its problems like every other country in the world, but that has also managed, despite a situation that has seemed hopeless, at first, to people who look at these things in terms of hard boundaries - that has emerged as this fantastic example of economic growth and development. So what were the major things that happened before 1990 that sort of made this takeoff possible?Akhtar;Now, one may debate on whether 1990 is the point of the takeoff. In any case, it's very difficult to pinpoint. But anyway, it's good. So 1990, twenty years after independence and also a transition to democratic rule after fifteen years or so of military or quasi military rule. So that's another reason people take that as a counterpoint. But it's a good counterpoint to start discussing these things. Professor Stefan Dercon, whom I think you had on your show recently, who wrote this book Gambling on Development; he has been saying that actually, in some ways, it's a Bangladesh experience which may be more relevant for many developing countries than the East Asian [experience]. And one of the reasons he mentions is, I think, what you just alluded to - that there is a certain messiness, and yet Bangladesh developed. So countries which think that they are also in a somewhat messy situation, or whatever dimensions, say in governance or other dimensions - whether it's possible for them to develop. And that's why the Bangladesh example may be more relevant and encouraging than the East Asian, where one common characteristic has been the strong capabilities of the state. In China, it has been there for hundreds or more,  thousands of years. In East Asia, yes, I'm sure they also have that but they certainly acquired that quite fast. So how do you develop in a country context where the state capacity, the governance quality are not that great, and then you have many other problems as well. So you're right. In that sense, Bangladesh may be very relevant. I think I'd like to first start with, um, even deeper history, because if you look at the region which now constitutes Bangladesh, it used to be part of a province in British India. So it was East Bengal, and then you had West Bengal and then together it was Bengal. Now there was a time in history when Bengal including East Bengal was supposed to be reasonably rich, perhaps the richest province in [the] whole of India before the British came. But if we go back to the beginning of the twentieth century, East Bengal was actually quite backward economically and in many other ways. And if you look at the political discourse in the first half of the twentieth century, before the British left, the political and intellectual discourse in what is now Bangladesh, you'll see there's a lot of talk about peasants being exploited. We were a very peasant dominated economy and society. In many ways we still are, although there has been a lot of urbanisation and industrial activity. At that time it was very much peasant dominated, and the theme which dominated the discourse was exploitation of the peasants. And the aspiration that the leaders whether political or intellectual had is how can we improve the conditions of the poor people. And that sort of got ingrained in the minds of the leaders, and that continued during the time when we were a part of Pakistan. Because you may have heard that there was a lot of disparity and there was a lot of discriminatory treatment by the Pakistani establishment. So that theme was there. When we became independent in ‘71, you could think of the political leadership, you could think of the professional leadership, the bureaucracy, the intellectuals, the media, this theme of doing something for the poor, was actually very strong. So right at the beginning, and, I heard somewhere that our first prime minister, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was asked by a foreign journalist: what is the number one problem of your country? And he said, I actually have two number one problems. One is food security, and one is population. And we need to take care of that. So right from the beginning, even in the midst of all the turmoil in the first few years, and all the challenges of relief and rehabilitation, work had started on ensuring agricultural growth and food security. And we were fortunate that the HYV rice, the high yielding variety of rice, had been introduced just before independence, so we had something to work with. So that was very important. And there was a strong program to bring down the rate of growth of [the] population and we succeeded on both counts. So by the time we come to 1990, agriculture is taking off. Rice production had taken off significantly, farmers were diversifying into other crops. And we had started to see the beginnings of a rural non farm sector. So agriculture and non agriculture together. And, Bangladeshis had been going out as migrants, and they're sending back remittances, most of it going into the rural areas. So there was a vibrancy in the rural area by the time you come to 1990. Secondly, sometime in the late 70s, the government decided that not only should we move away from the early talk about socialism, [but] towards a more private sector-oriented or market-oriented economy. They also understood that industry has to grow to absorb the surplus labour in agriculture, and export orientation has to grow, because the market in Bangladesh is simply not large enough. So there was an early emphasis on exports. And of course, fortuitously, you know, the South Koreans were running out of their garment quota, so they wanted to relocate some of the production to Bangladesh, but we were ready to take advantage because by then the government and let's say the elite of the class had decided that we need to industrialise and the major driver of industrialization is going to be exports. And then throughout the 80s, we saw the takeoff of the garment industry. The third thing which happened was the liberalisation of policies, mostly in the 80s. So, privatisation was done, the banking sector was open to the private sector. The agricultural input market, which was previously dominated by the government, was gradually liberalised and towards the late 80s, there was a significant liberalisation of that. And finally, as remittances started coming in, our foreign exchange constraint was relaxed. So that also gave government some comfort that we can decontrol certain things. And we can allow industry to move ahead without too many controls. So all these things coming together sort of created the context in which we entered the 1990s. So a lot of the preconditions - the population growth rate had fallen significantly by the time it came to the 1990s, agricultural growth had taken off, industry was taking off, especially the labour intensive garments, which is export-oriented, that industry was taking off.Tobi;That was such a loaded answer, which has preempted some of my further questions. But let me quickly make one digression on agriculture, because over the past seven years or so, in Nigeria, there's been this debate. There's been a huge debate about agriculture, the current administration sort of prioritised agriculture and a lot of resources (capital) was allocated to that sector. And there's been challenges and there's been critics, sometimes I've found myself on the critic's side of things. Now, what I want to know from you is that,the link between agriculture, especially investment and the agricultural productivity that is necessary for the vibrance of that particular sector, how was the Bangladeshi experience? How did Bangladesh achieve food security, especially in terms of improving yield and productivity?Akhtar;Right, so a few things. Firstly, as I said, the high yielding variety of rice had been introduced in the late 60s, and then just after independence, government continued, but more vigorously with a model of… it was more [of a] public sector driven model, where the public sector would import the major inputs. One is irrigation equipment, because this rice needed irrigation, and the other was fertiliser. So, they're imported by the public sector, then they're distributed by the public sector going all the way to the farmers. Maybe at the last mile, there were some private traders who act as dealers on behalf of the government. So, the government took that responsibility. Later on, as I said, in the 80s, they started liberalising it. We'll come to that later. Second is, there's been quite a bit of investment in agricultural research. Now the HYV rice came from abroad, but as it was being applied in Bangladeshi farms, in many cases, we realised that there was some adaptation needed, because the conditions were not always well suited for this variety. The crop conditions varied even within Bangladesh, even though it's a small country, lots of variation. Later on, for example, salinity became a problem, because a lot of water was coming from the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh. So there are all kinds of problems - there's flooding also. There were many areas where after floods, the waters don't recede that fast, so they remain underwater for a long time. So the agricultural scientists in Bangladesh, and they were all in the public sector, they came up with innovations to come up with rice varieties and later other varieties like maize varieties or vegetables, which are better suited to the conditions in Bangladesh. And then the public sector effort was also complemented, supplemented by NGO efforts. You may have heard about BRAC [Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee], which is the largest NGO in the world, and we often talk about their activities in the health sector, in education, in microfinance. They were actually doing a lot of work in the economic sphere as well. R&D in agriculture was one of the things that we're doing, in collaboration with the government often, so there was R&D. Another thing happened, which I forgot to mention, when I mentioned sort of the run up to the 90s. In the 80s, the government started a massive program to build rural roads, connecting the rural areas to the small towns and the small towns to the bigger towns. So,a huge rural road network was built starting from the late 80s. And it continued into the 90s, which broadened the markets of the farmers. So in all of this, the core player was the small farmer. As I said, Bangladesh is a peasant, small farmer dominated economy, so it is remarkable that these farmers were willing to innovate, they were willing to move away from what their parents and grandparents had done for many, many years, and adopt these new varieties. So the combination of the government with some NGOs and the farmers, I think that created the basis for productivity improvements in agriculture. And that was sustained because the market was sustained. There were lots of public policies. And at some point, when the government thought the public sector delivery model was not working that well, they allowed the private sector to come in.Tobi;I don't want to infer anything, but from your answer, I can tell what Nigeria is doing wrong, but maybe we'll get to that later. So let's talk about the conditions, which you've also sort of answered for me but I want to know if there is more. Dercon in his book, I'm talking about Professor Stefan Dercon, talked about elite consensus that sort of becomes the bedrock of deciding to pursue economic development. So this broad consensus amongst the Bangladeshi political elites to improve the conditions of the poor, and, which, I'm speculating sort of enabled an ecosystem of policy consistency, even if there are deviations at the margins, how did it emerge? And how was it sustained?Akhtar;Okay, as I had mentioned to Professor Dercon ‘cause I also had a conversation with him for our Bangladeshi group. And I said that – and, he agreed that, it's really difficult to define if there was an elite consensus because it's not that the elite are sitting in a room discussing and bargaining and one day they come out and say, okay, here is an agreement, we have agreed on these three things, it doesn't happen. And there is a bit of tautology in his book as well. And he agreed with that, that in his country chapters, he says, these countries had an elite bargain. And then he says, Okay, this is how the countries grew. And if they have grown, therefore, they must have had a bargain. So there's a bit of tautology there. But coming back to this, I think, I started giving you a flavour of that when I brought in history, even before the British left and how in East Bengal, there was this deeply ingrained feeling that something has to be done for the poor people. And then just after independence in ‘74, we had a big famine. And that sort of strengthened this feeling amongst Bangladeshis. And you know, you mentioned the word elite and it's a bit difficult to define the elite. I would say that it's a broader… I'm talking about people who can influence policy, both the formulation and the quality of implementation. There are a lot of people in the bureaucracy who may not, in that sense, be called part of the elite, but they do have some authority. Now, most of these people, they actually are not too far away from the poor people of Bangladesh. Many of them still have very strong connections with their villages. They go back regularly. They know what the conditions are there. And in a densely populated country like Bangladesh, you see poverty all around you. So all these things, I think, have ingrained in the minds of the elite, however you define it, this commitment to doing something to safeguard the interests of the poor, but that is the security side - food security, [to] address the vulnerability. But somewhere down the line, people started recognizing that Bangladeshis also have an entrepreneurial potential. And there was a feeling that we should try and help unleash that potential. So, as I said, it's difficult to pinpoint a particular period where there has been a consensus but in a subtle way, there has been this consensus that to achieve food security, to help take advantage of the latent entrepreneurship of Bangladeshis, we should be focusing a lot on growth and more generally on development. And that has survived the transitions in administrations, from one government to another, that common element has been there.Tobi;It's not exactly a push back, and I should note that there is a lot more; there's vastly a lot more to Bangladesh than Dercon's book. So, and I don't want to be caught in debating his book. But, why I find that particular line of thought relevant is that, from what you have described, it's amazing to me, so maybe you can help me understand the difference. Now, how a country can set out to do some of these things; invest in agriculture, agricultural R&D, and all these other support programs with big macro effects. Whereas a Nigeria can set out to do those same things and then you find divergent outcomes in their implementation, particularly the inability to execute. You know? There's always a plan. We want to improve the lot of the poor. We want to invest in agriculture. We want to improve productivity. We want to build infrastructure, you know, this, that, they are always so nice and interesting. But the difference is always at the end of the day, countries often don't do these things, right, they never stay true to these things. And of course, we can talk about various reasons why it fell astray - corruption, state capacity, and all that. But what I… which you mentioned in your last sentence [is] how policies survive, even though there are political transitions, election cycles come and go, the particular direction that policy goes, survives this transition, I think that's really what I'm trying to get at.Akhtar;Okay, so I don't know that much about Nigeria. Now, people say that the fact that you have natural resources may have been in some ways a curse, I don't know if it's true or not, but certainly, that sometimes gives governments a sense of complacency and therefore, even if they start on a certain course, they may not have the discipline to stay that course. Now Bangladesh, we never had the advantage of having natural resources. Nowadays, certain things have improved, you know, foreign exchange reserves have been at comfortable levels for several years. So, that may induce a certain degree of complacency, but for a long time, the government knew that we were operating with very narrow degrees of freedom. So that was the context in which Bangladesh had to operate. Which also meant that we were somewhat dependent on donors and that certainly imposed an additional set of disciplines on Bangladesh. But later on, I may come and comment on exactly the kind of relationships I think existed between donors and Bangladesh. But maybe the best way to answer your question would be to say a little bit about the way in which policies have evolved in Bangladesh. And in a sense, it's a bit of a “muddling through” process. And I wrote a blog for the Brookings Institute a year ago, where I said that Bangladesh did it, alluding to that famous song of Frank Sinatra - “I did it my way.” So what was that “my way?” We all know that the Bangladeshi Government has never been tremendously competent, there's always been corruption problems as well. So the way it has happened is the following. Things happened in the economy, let's say agricultural productivity is improving. But then it hits certain constraints, and the economic actors, or people acting on behalf of the actors; like academics, donors, journalists, will bring up those issues. And they will probably say that, “here are ten things which need to be done.” Now what the governments in Bangladesh have done, successive governments, [is] they have responded to that, not by doing all the ten things. No. They may have picked up two or three things. And they may have done a little bit. Why a little bit? Because they were risk averse. They wanted to test out what would happen in the market, how the market players respond. [As the government], if I do just three or four things and not everything, and then see the response…and here comes the entrepreneurial side - the response was usually quite good, and when the response was good, the government felt encouraged. And then the government said “okay, let's do a few more of the things that were demanded.” The other thing which happened was, as the response came, newer constraints were revealed, or constraints which were not binding before became binding. For example, initially when the agricultural growth was not that great, when production wasn't that huge, the fact that we did not have a good rural road network connecting the rural areas to broader markets wasn't that big a constraint, because you're not producing enough to go out in a big market. When you started producing a lot of marketable surplus, you needed a broader market. And that's when you started feeling the constraint. And people started talking about the need to build up the rural road network. And to the credit of the government, they responded. So, this is what I call the sort of back and forth, policy dynamics - things happen in the economy, government notices it or it is brought to their notice, they react not in a grand way, just doing a little bit here and there;nd then the market responds, may be much more than in many other countries, because of the entrepreneurial spirit, and then the government responds. And that process has gone on uninterrupted throughout the last fifty years. And so, once you accumulate, even if these are modest steps, once you accumulate all of that, you'll see a tremendous result. And that's what we're seeing here. So, what it means is countries – the governments don't have to be very competent, they just have to pick the signals. So, you know, you have this phrase called “picking the winners” and a lot of people say, no, governments should not be in the business of picking winners. I say, in Bangladesh, that what the government just does is pick signals. They've picked signals from the private sector, from the farmers, and they have acted accordingly. And I think the accumulation of all these, the synergies created by all these is, I think, what has made the difference.Tobi;That's interesting. So, generally, the usual story with development is structural transformation. That is, for you to grow rich, the economy has to transform from a largely agrarian, low productivity economy to preferably an industrial high productivity economy. And, I mean, to an extent, we've seen the same process also in Bangladesh. Manufacturing, particularly the garment industry, is eighty or so percent of exports and employment is largely created also in that industry. Now, what I want to ask you is, the role of foreign direct investments in that cannot be understated. You talked about South Korea earlier, and how it played a role in that. For South Korea, so many other scholars would cite the role of Japan in kickstarting the South Korean garment industry; garment and textile industry itself. So, my question then is, is there a link here? I mean, also in your columns, I've read about the role of Samsung, and the electronics industry in Vietnam. Right. So the role of FDI in development, and especially getting industrialization started, what are the favourable conditions? To what degree is it external and internal? I guess that would be my question.Akhtar;Okay. Well, you use the term kickstarting, because in Bangladesh, in the garment industry, a foreign investor helped kickstart that industry, but didn't do much beyond that. So, Bangladesh's Government has been largely domestic…[it is] a case of domestic entrepreneurship leading the sector to the heights that it has achieved now. Yes, we have some Export Processing Zones where we have a number of foreign invested garment factories, but the bulk of it is domestic entrepreneurship. But you're right. The initial thrust came from this partnership with Daewoothe IU. It was a five year partnership. Daewoo trained Bangladeshis, (they) took them to their plants in Korea, trained them. They obviously had the market connections and market knowledge, all that was very useful. But what many people don't know is that the Bangladeshi partner actually quit that agreement just one year into that five year period. So after one year, he thought that he had learned everything that needed to be learned. Now, if he hadn't done that, I believe Daewoo had other plans of coming into other sectors, which we may have lost. But then we did end up with this vibrant mostly domestic-owned garment industry. But foreign investment had a role in jumpstarting that. If you go a little beyond industry, think about sectors which facilitate industry. The entire mobile phone development in Bangladesh, which is also remarkable, was foreign investment led. So, foreign investment played a major role there. So, I agree that foreign investment can play an important role in kickstarting industries, and that is something very important now that we want to diversify our exports, make them more sophisticated, we can come to that subject later. Now, you asked me about what are the conditions which are conducive for foreign investment. And this is where I would say that in Bangladesh, the conditions are still not that conducive. In the case of garments in the late 70s, it was the exhaustion of the South Korean quota of garments, which was the major inducement for them to come in. But also, as I said, the new government, which came into power in ‘75 was talking a lot about export promotion. So, that was there. But the most important constraint that Bangladesh faces, and it's true of many other countries, is policy and regulatory uncertainty. So, Bangladesh often says that we have got a policy regime which is very friendly to foreign investors. And that may well be true. But the execution has problems. And there are a lot of case by case decisions which are taken, which affect the foreign investors adversely. And that creates uncertainty. And those stories are told to other prospective investors. And when they hear those stories, they get discouraged. And the World Bank where I used to work, in fact, the last unit that I worked on, they did a survey of CEOs of multinational corporations just a few years ago, asking them about what are the factors which are very important for you when you decide to invest or not invest in a country, and policy and regulatory uncertainty was top of the list. So that is where Bangladesh still has got a lot of work to do. It is attractive in many other ways - very large domestic market, relatively cheap labour, the labour is quite fast at learning, a lot of good things there. But I think the policy environment, particularly the implementation, the certainty, that has to be ensured.Tobi;I have a further question, particularly on that point, and referencing another one of your columns, I think I'll just stick to your columns today for all my questions. For example, in Nigeria, I'll give you an example. In Nigeria, recently, foreign airlines are threatening to quit. Over the past three, four years, foreign investment (FDI) has plummeted. It's barely a billion dollars, currently, one of the lowest even in Africa. And of course, a lot of these things you mentioned are the problems that investors and business people talk about - policy uncertainty, especially around the control of the exchange rates and inability of companies to repatriate their capital, and to fund their operating expenses, and so forth. So, I mean, that's one constraint. But one distinction you made is like the types of FDI. There are different categories of FDI; market-seeking FDI, natural resource-seeking, efficiency-seeking [FDI]. And the reason I'm asking this is that there seems to be one problem, which, to my mind, Bangladesh has solved, it's not perfect, that Nigeria is struggling with, which is this inertia to get things started, you know, once you start on a journey, you can muddle through, but the inertia to get that process going is still something that Nigeria struggles with, in my opinion. So, now talking about FDI, if I were a policymaker today talking to you; advise me, what kind of FDI should I prioritise in trying to lure investors into my country, for them to create jobs and [create] a nest of high productivity manufacturing industry? So is it market seeking? Is it natural resources seeking? Is it efficiency seeking? Which one is the best in terms of the necessary incentives for sustainability?Akhtar;Okay, so one of the articles, not as part of the regular column, I think, but I wrote for the same newspaper a few years ago, was titled “investment for what?” So that's a question the governments have to ask. Because everyone talks about attracting FDI. It's a mantra all over the developing world. But governments need to ask why exactly do we want FDI? How is it aligned with our development aspirations and development programs? I wanted to just emphasise that because often governments just go blindly trying to attract foreign investors. And whoever comes in, we welcome that. That's not necessarily a good strategy always. For example, in Bangladesh, if we now have a lot of foreign investors coming in, to make jeans and T-shirts, using the same technology as before, we don't really need that, we can't afford to give our scarce land and utility and other things to do things which our domestic entrepreneurs have become reasonably good at doing. So it has to be something new that comes in. Now, at the same time, we also have to recognize that the foreign investors also have their own interest and their own calculations. So we have to come to a balance between the two as well. Now, it's difficult to say a priori that we prefer market-seeking or efficiency-seeking. On a natural resource, it's a slightly different issue if you have natural resources, and if you don't have the capacity to develop them yourself, you may need foreign investors. And obviously, we all know why foreign investors are often very attracted to that. But let me confine my answer to the choice between market-seeking and efficiency-seeking. Now, let's take the case of Bangladesh. We are now talking about diversifying our exports. And we are talking about going into more sophisticated products like electronics. If that is our objective, we may want to target some people who come and make electronics. Now they may come for two reasons. Bangladesh has a huge market, our per capita income may not be that high, but our total economy size is actually pretty large. We are amongst the top 40 economies in the world. And if you look at the size in the purchasing power parity terms, we're actually in the top 30. That's a very large economy. So, naturally foreign investors would come in looking at the market as well. But if our objective in this sector is to make a breakthrough in the global value chains, and not just serve the domestic market, then we'd like to have foreign investors come in with an efficiency-seeking objective that, in Bangladesh, we can make these things more efficiently, at lower cost, than in other places. So that Bangladesh then can ride on the backs of the foreign investors, who know the markets, who have the brand recognition and show the world that things can be made efficiently in Bangladesh. And, then once we have shown that with the help of foreign investors, maybe Bangladeshi entrepreneurs can also start doing it. So here you see I give you an example, where you have a strategic objective, and you attract foreign investors of a particular type. Now, there are also many needs in the domestic market. Bangladesh needs to develop a very good logistics system. And we may need foreign investors to come in and invest there, but will be more market-seeking. I mentioned the case of mobile telephones, that was not an export-oriented industry, although it may have facilitated exports, that was domestic market-oriented. And we encouraged foreign investors to come in, who were obviously coming in as market-seeking investors. So the answer would vary depending on the sector or the activity. But that brings me back to my first point, the government should have a clearer idea of what is the role of foreign investment in implementing the various dimensions of your development strategy. And accordingly, you're going to target efficiency-seeking investors in some cases, and market-oriented investors in other cases.Tobi;So, now, from a policy perspective, because really, that's what's sort of dominating this conversation. One thing that keeps coming up is the role of government, the strategy it pursues, you know, this, that. But inevitably, that leads to the question of what… in terms of economic development, what role does the government play by itself? Now, China, and, of course, other East Asian economies are very, very popular in the development discourse and these are largely autocratic governance. Right. And, to an extent the gospel of state-led development has travelled far and wide, sometimes in contrast to what is generally called the neoliberal or the Washington Consensus-type policies. But at the same time, at the nexus of all this is the role of markets, how the economy is regulated, liberalisation. How does a government approach regulation and policymaking generally, with the right incentives for the government to take the lead in areas where, maybe because of access to market or not seeing the prospect of returns, private actors are reluctant? And also at the other end, this sort of control, excessive control, that you see in so many developing countries, like Nigeria, and so many others in Africa, where government sees itself as the primary player in the economy, right? What is the balance? What is the heuristic generally, in trying to, [or] should I say, make policy and regulations to encourage economic development, and, of course, your Bangladeshi experience of that?Akhtar;Okay. So, when you say state-led, there are many ways you can define that. One is the direct participation of the state in productive activities. And in China, that is still pronounced, there are different models of state-owned enterprises, including public private partnerships, but the state plays a dominant, or at least an important direct role in the production of activities. That's one thing. The other is playing a direct role, not in production, but in things that facilitate production. So I had mentioned the case of research and development in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh, which was there right from the beginning. It was largely a private sector activity, but that was meant to facilitate productive activities by the private sector, in this case, thousands and thousands of farmers. So, the whole spectrum of things that the government does and, of course, there is the whole regulatory function of the government. And I think in choosing the balance, and the balance itself may shift over time as the economy develops. And I give an example of that, again, from the agricultural sector of Bangladesh, how the government moved away from the direct import and distribution of agricultural inputs, giving more and more space to the private sector over time. So initially, in the 70s, maybe that was the right thing to do. And then later on, the right thing to do was to withdraw and create space for the private sector. So the balance, (a) has to be thought of carefully, in terms of the capacity of the government, that's very important. And, again, if I [could] mention Stefan Dercon, he talks about the self awareness of [the] government. Are governments aware of what they can do and what they cannot do? And that answer would vary by country. Often governments make the mistake of thinking that they can do a lot of things, and therefore they; (a) go into productive activities themselves directly, and (b) also controlling too much the activities of the private sector. Controlling is not that easy. It requires a lot of skills, and many governments actually don't have the skills of doing that. The thing that may have happened in Bangladesh is the government has been more or less self aware, not always, but more or less self aware of what they can do and what they cannot do. And that has led to a certain division of labour between the government and the private sector, and the NGOs. With that division of labour also changing over time. That's very important. So the government needs to be aware of where its capacities are, and they need to also have some faith that the private sector, if given the opportunity, can come and do certain things. Because governments often say, okay, but if we don't intervene, the private sector is not going to come in. Or we have a big factory, if we close it down, then a lot of people will lose their jobs, and the private sector will not be forthcoming to create jobs for them. If you want, I can give you a good example of that kind of thinking. In Bangladesh, we had the world's largest jute mill called the Adamjee Jute Mill, and it was bleeding like hell, and every year the government had to subsidise. So there was lots of debate on whether the factory should be (a) privatised, and there was no taker, then the question is whether it should be closed down. Then, about 20 years ago, exactly 20 years ago, a very bold decision was taken to actually close down the factory. It was a controversial decision. About 26,000 workers lost their jobs. Some of them were ghost workers, maybe 20,000. Now the story of what happened after that is very interesting. That land was converted into an export processing zone. And now the latest figures are that about 65 to 70,000 jobs have been created there. So you had lost about 20 [thousand jobs] and you have created so many. These are all private sector firms, they're all export oriented firms, the government doesn't need to subsidise them. So you can see once given the opportunity what the private sector can come and do. So you don't have to hold on to a loss making enterprise just because you're worried about job losses.Tobi;Let me sort of ask you a big picture question on this particular point, which is the role of democracy in development, generally. Democracies have been taking a beating recently, so maybe you can speak up for it, somewhat. Do you think democracy has some kind of unique weakness in terms of trying to engineer economic development, particularly because of elections? I mean, to cite the example of the jute mill you mentioned, some regime that is sensitive, maybe in an election year, or maybe that wants to appeal to a particular constituency, or, maybe workers Union or something might actually kick the can down the road. An example is (fuel) petrol subsidy in Nigeria, which the bill keeps increasing, but I mean, each government promises to remove it or reduce it, and then kicks it to the next government because nobody wants to annoy the workers union, nobody wants to lose votes, the party wants to remain in power, you know, and these incentives that are common in democracies. So, do you think this makes democracies weak in a way, in trying to develop the national economy? Because a lot of people will say that's why China has developed much faster than India, for example. What's your take?Akhtar;Okay, let me start by giving you an anecdote. So this is from about I think it was 2008 or so, 2007 maybe. Bangladesh then had a quasi military government, it was called a caretaker government, whose major responsibility was to conduct free and fair elections. So they were in power for about two years. And I was actually working in Bangladesh at that time. And we had, I think we had a natural disaster, or maybe we had floods. So conditions were pretty bad. And one of the… well, they were called advisors, but they were de facto ministers, who was having to deal with this problem of getting food to poor people, dealing with rising prices [and] all that; he said to me, “I can feel a certain handicap being part of this kind of government.” What is the handicap? Right now what I need a lot is information from the grassroots, I need to know what is happening in different parts of the country, and I need that information very fast. I need it right now, about what's happening earlier today, or what has happened yesterday. Fortunately, I have some connections in the NGO world, this gentleman was an academic. I'm getting some information. But if this was a political campaign, I would rely on my political network, my workers, my small town leaders, and within a few hours, I'll be getting information from all over the country on what the conditions are. Now, why do I mention this anecdote? Because in a democratic system, your feedback mechanisms may work very well. Yes, there can also be a lot of noise. But otherwise, the feedback which is very, very important for government, they need to know what's going on throughout the country with different groups of people, with different localities etc. That is something that autocratic governments lack. Yes, information flows, flows from lower level bureaucrats, but I'm sure they are modified on their way. Because, the boss often doesn't want to hear certain things. It may happen in political democratic setups, but generally, the flow of information is much better for politicians. Now, how they act upon that information is another issue, but that's very important. Secondly, politicians operating within a democratic setup, (a) they develop a lot of empathy, because of their interactions with people, [b] they also get a good idea of what the trade-offs can be. And these are very, very important in decision making. So those are the good sides of democracy. Now, yes, in democracy, you also need to cater to your political constituencies, and that may lead to certain decisions, which technocrats may feel are sub optimal. But that is the price you pay for democracy. Compared to the gains for having a democratic system, that is sometimes a small price to pay, although sometimes that can get out of hand. But if it gets out of hand, it's usually where you may in name have a democracy system, but in practice, you don't. So the kinds of disciplines that democracy imposes on the government are lacking there. So that is my answer. Now, as you can see, implicit in my answer was some definition of democracy. It's not just about electoral politics. It's not just about having regular elections and free and fair elections. It is the monitoring mechanism. Are governments picking the signals, are they getting the information? How wide is the information that they're getting? That's a very important characteristic of development.Tobi;So another one of my sort of big picture questions to you, and in this case, using the Bangladeshi experience and example, is, in the last couple of years, there has been this big debate in development over, oh, do you prioritise the big things or the small things you can measure? You were with the World Bank, I'm sure you have some familiarity with the so-called empirical revolution and how it has sort of taken over the field of development economics where, yeah, there is a lot more preference in terms of international aid funding for interventions, things that you can measure. So, the RCTs, or, whether it is conditional cash transfers, and all these things – and the atmosphere with which this debate happens sometimes, personally, I find it frustrating because it makes it seem like a zero-sum kind of thing. Like, you can either have one or the other. You either pursue growth, or you forego that and choose to do all these small scale, local and domestic interventions. But Bangladesh, like you mentioned, the issue of BRAC and also people like Naomi and co. have written about – Naomi Hussein [that] Bangladesh managed both. There was a sort of productive combination of both frameworks, that is, the role of non governmental organisations who were able to provide some support for the rural communities. And of course, there was the big macro policies that were explicitly designed to pursue economic growth, get businesses going, create jobs, you know, and all the other things that happen in the private sector. So, my question would be, how did that sort of synergy happen in Bangladesh? How was that cooperation, so to speak… I mean, you talked about the role of BRAC in R&D and agriculture, you know, how did that happen? How did, perhaps, it wasn't intended, but in practice, how does it work?Akhtar;Okay. Let me start by recounting something I heard Abhijit Banerjee, the Nobel laureate, who got a Nobel prize for his work on RCTs, said something about the rationale for going into RCTs. And he's saying that the kinds of interventions that we talk about in the context of RCTs, they're not the only interventions that bring about development. In fact, the most profound development impact may come from other kinds of interventions and policies, and other factors. But his point was that, let's say, as a development practitioner, we are not able to influence these big things. So I'm going to focus on the things that we can influence. So I'm doing a project here, a project there, and we can change the parameters of the project in certain ways that we achieve the most significant impact. And how do we change the parameters or what parameters we choose or how do we design the project? That's where randomised control trials can give us very useful insights. And we can get more bang for the buck from the development expenditures in those kinds of projects. Now, he never said that that's all about development. There are many other things that need to be done. And governments, in their collective wisdom, may have a better idea of what those things can be. And that's different from a particular project team trying to do a project. They won't have all that knowledge, which can lead them to think about much bigger things, but governments can; not perfectly, but governments can. Or large organisations like BRAC can within certain spheres of operation. So, yes, I agree with you that this is a false dichotomy, that you either completely forget about RCTs or you get completely immersed into RCTs. So, one has to find the right places where the randomised control trials, which are after all an instrument, one of the tools in your toolbox… which is the best time and place to deploy it. I would say in Bangladesh, yes, the scope for applying them is more than the actual application so far, which means that we have a scope to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending by using these techniques judiciously in certain areas. Now, coming back to, I think you mentioned the question of BRAC in the context of R&D, but also BRAC has played an important role in market development through their social enterprise world. So, as I said before that the part of BRAC's work which is not discussed much is the work on the economic sphere. So what happened there? I'll just give one or two examples. I think giving concrete examples is the best way to illustrate this. So, they got into, let's say, they got into dairy [farming]. Actually, the way BRAC started most of these activities was from a livelihood concern. They wanted to create livelihood opportunities for the poor people in the rural areas of Bangladesh. So they said, okay, we have dairy farmers whose incomes are limited, we want to do something to help enhance their inputs [output]. So they came up with certain small interventions, which helped improve the productivity of their dairy farming, and they ended up with more production, then they had a problem. Now, milk is not something that you can preserve for a long time, you need to have some cold storage facilities, some refrigeration facilities, and that was lacking. So a lot of these increased output was actually being wasted. That led BRAC to start thinking about what else it needs to do. So then it went into refrigeration plants. So, they set up refrigeration plants, where the dairy farmers would come from adjoining villages and store their milk. And that led to other things also down the road. So there are many examples of BRAC where they went into a certain activity, they went into poultry, for example, and then discovered that there isn't a good supply of day old chicks, which is an important ingredient in poultry. So they went into that. And the interesting thing is, in many cases, BRAC was the first one to go into that, later the private sector came in and came in in a big way. And when they did, BRAC withdrew. Because BRAC thought, okay, we have played the role of a pioneer, we have catalysed the entry of private enterprises, we can now withdraw and attend to certain other things. So what's going on here? What's going on here is, you have value chains, which are underdeveloped - there are gaps in the value chain. And one aspect of development is to make the value chains more complete. And here you have an actor, BRAC, which has entered the market… [enters] one part of the market, trying to do something, discovering that there is not much it can do unless it intervenes in other parts of the value chain. Well, it can do something but the impact will not be that great, so then it intervenes. But at one point, it realises that other players who are better at scaling this up have entered the field so let me withdraw. So judicious entry, and judicious withdrawal. And that is also true of the government. It's also true of BRAC. I think that's the kind of dynamics of development which is very important. And somewhere there, yes, you may have some trials, which may be randomised control trials, it may be just informally observing from your own experience of what is working, what is not working, but this idea of learning by doing, learning by doing, the government has done it in Bangladesh, BRAC and other BRAC-type institutions have done it. The private sector is also doing it.Tobi;The last of my big-picture questions to you is– Another dichotomy that I have observed is the business cycle concerns of an economy and policy and these sorts of other long-run development growth policies. For example, in Nigeria, it's a common refrain that we had growth in some years, but we never really had development. Income didn't grow as fast as GDP, and growth has been cyclical, it's not sustained. And some of the issues that really plague governments and policymakers is that even in trying to make policies that are tolerant and favourable to long-run growth, there are short term issues that you have to deal with [like] foreign exchange policy, inflation, and sometimes I've heard people say that, Oh, as a developing country, you have a lot more tolerance for inflation than developed economies. I think you'll have to tell me whether that's true or not. Because inflation does not happen in a vacuum, it affects the purchasing power of people, poor people even more so. Right. So how do policymakers in growing countries manage these tensions in terms of – and, I'm working my way through your book with Gustav Ranis on this – how policymakers mine through these everyday concerns of the economy, versus the long-term prospects and the projects you are trying to put forth as a government?Akhtar;Okay. Well, since you alluded to that book, I will first briefly mention the main theme of the book, and then come to this specific [question]. The main theme of the book, which we illustrated through a comparative study of East Asian countries and Latin American countries, [was that] we talked about the East Asian pattern of government behaviour and the Latin American pattern of government behaviour. And the period covered was from the mid 60s to the mid 80s so things may have changed after that. And in any case, it's difficult to talk about (a) East Asian pattern, and (b) Latin American pattern. But what we were talking about is that during the course of a business cycle, or terms of trade cycle, as your terms of trade improve, your foreign exchange reserves go on increasing, obviously, growth accelerates. The question is what does a government do when things are good? Do they let growth accelerate according to some normal – “normal trajectory”, or they get excited, and they try to push growth beyond the “normal trajectory”-- making it higher than what the good times normally would make it? So, in the “Latin American” scenario, when things were good, growth was happening, government wanted to have more of it. So they went for expansionary fiscal policies, expansionary monetary policies to push growth beyond what the natural trajectory is. And then inevitably, because we are talking of cycles, inevitably a time came, where things started going down. And conditions were not as conducive as before. At that time, what the East Asian countries did– but first– they never tried to artificially push growth above the natural level. When the downturn came, they allowed the growth to fall. So they went for contractionary policies, they allowed the growth to fall. But in the Latin American scenario, having pushed growth beyond the natural path, it's almost like being intoxicated, you could not get rid of that habit. So, you try to artificially maintain growth even though the signs were all pointing downwards. And then the time came when things just crashed. And you fell into a deep crisis. Whereas the East Asians, they had their ups and downs, but they didn't have a serious crisis at that time. They had later, but not at that time. So that was the main thing about how you conduct your policies during the upturn, and then also during the downturn. Now, coming back to the specific situation like the one we observe now, when there are many economic challenges facing countries, and what can governments do to ensure that the course on which they had been before the crisis started, or the challenges started, and hopefully it was a course of development, how can they stay on that course as best as they can? First is, governments should look for existing inefficiencies. For example, in your public expenditures, there may be a lot of inefficiencies, and if you can identify those and get rid of those [inefficiencies], then you can bring things under control in the context of the challenges without sacrificing growth. Most developing countries, including Bangladesh, do have inefficiencies in their public expenditures. So the question is, do you target those inefficiencies and curtail them? Or, do you target those parts of expenditures which are actually very useful? So that's number one. And that's why we often have this phrase, “don't let a crisis go to waste.” Because a crisis can often focus attention better than good times can. And a crisis can also create the political and social consensus to take some tough decisions. So that's one thing. Second is the importance of social protection. And we must remember that for people at the margin, and in our kind of countries, Nigeria, Bangladesh, a lot of people are still at the margin. Even a small shock which takes them below the threshold is not a temporary damage that after some time they can come back [from], often it's a permanent damage. They have to sell off their productive assets, which means even when things start improving, their conditions won't improve. So that's why it's very, very important to have good social protection systems in place.Third, coming back to a point I made earlier, it's very important to have good monitoring systems. ‘Cause we really want to know what's going on, how the lives of different people across the country is being affected by the tough conditions in which you are, without that your policies will be suboptimal. So that monitoring is very, very important. And it's very important to engage different stakeholders in society. And for two reasons. One is part of the monitoring, because economists, business people, journalists, and others, would know a lot beyond what the government knows and it's important to tap into that knowledge, but also to build consensus about some of the tough decisions that need to be taken. So, at the end of the day, it is a lot about governance. It's a governance challenge that countries face when they're facing an economic challenge.Tobi;My final question to you, I have a couple of other questions, but… from a policy-making perspective, how do you then make knowledge count? Because from everything you have talked about, the role of knowledge… which takes me back to where we started, you know, talking about agriculture. The role of knowledge is actually very important. But you have situations where you can have knowledgeable people in government, world class economists, and the government itself might be making policies that are clearly wrong, which means there's a disconnect somewhere. And I mean, in Bangladesh, it's often talked about how there is a policy knowledge ecosystem that informs the public and shapes their accountability and expectations, and also informs policymakers at the other end of that spectrum. How does a country build and nurture that? Especially, how does knowledge of, whether it is knowledge of economics, whether it is knowledge of society and other programs, how it transmits to the key decision makers, and influence some of the actions or policies, or regulations, that are taken? How does that happen?Akhtar;Okay, so you mentioned the sort of the ecosystem linking policy and knowledge in Bangladesh. We have an ecosystem, I wouldn't say it always functions very well. And we do have many instances where people in government feel that the

Irish Tech News Audio Articles
Green Talent required to meet Irish climate targets

Irish Tech News Audio Articles

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2022 7:50


IDA Ireland, in partnership with Microsoft and LinkedIn, has today published its latest Labour Market Pulse, which provides an overview of the current insights and trends across the Irish labour market to help inform decision makers across business, academia and public policy. Green Talent required to meet Irish climate targets This edition of the Labour Market Pulse takes a closer look at the skills needed to support the transition to the green economy. This is particularly relevant off the back of the recent COP27 conference, where attendees called for more ambitious climate targets and stronger commitments to tackling climate change. This Labour Market Pulse shows the rising importance of green skills among today's workforces. The latest data from LinkedIn, based on analysis of the skills added by the platform's 875+ million members globally over the past seven years, reveals that the share of green talent on LinkedIn has risen from 9.6% to 13.3% between 2015 and 2021. Ireland mirrors global and European talent trends, with 13% of LinkedIn members in Ireland considered ‘green talent' in 2021. This includes LinkedIn members that work in green jobs, requiring skills that enable the environmental sustainability of economic activity, and those that have these skills listed on their profile. The increase of green talent on LinkedIn has been driven partially by new sustainability-focused jobs but predominantly by jobs in other sectors with sustainable elements, such as compliance managers or data scientists. The most popular green skills groups added on LinkedIn in Ireland last year were Sustainability, Environmental Awareness, Renewable Energy, Environment, Health and Safety (EHS) and Environmental Science. Green work In 2021, approximately 10% of LinkedIn Ireland members hired were in green jobs or jobs that benefited from green skills. Hiring for green jobs almost doubled from 2016 figures. Green jobs have particularly grown since 2019, coinciding with the implementation of climate targets and policies such as the Climate Action Plan. The continuation of this growth since 2020 has been encouraged by the focus on sustainability as a critical component to economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic. This focus has been implemented at all levels, for example through the European Union Recovery and Resilience Facility's requirement for Member States to focus plans on sustainability and digitisation. It is estimated that the Irish economy will need to fill over 20,000 jobs by 2030 just to support leading green economy sectors. Although new entrants to the labour market will fill some of these gaps, investment in lifelong learning, training and upskilling initiatives will be key to ensure future demand for green skills is met. Employment Meanwhile, the report also looks at employment rates in Ireland and highlights a decline in the hiring rate from post-pandemic highs. However, this 2022 figure is still above hiring rates in both October 2019 (+6.3%) and 2020 (+6.75%). Amid several economic headwinds, uncertainty dampened consumer spending in Ireland during the first quarter of the year. However, the labour market continued to perform strongly throughout 2022, with CSO data showing that the total number of people employed in Ireland reached record levels of 2.55 million people in Q2 of 2022 and maintained them in Q3. Overall Ireland is approaching current economic challenges from a position of high employment, strong economic growth and robust public finances. IDA Ireland has seen a strong flow of foreign direct investment with several major announcements across sectors and regions and IDA's recently announced annual results showed further growth in investment and employments in the multinational sector in 2022. Foreign direct investment is also growing rapidly in the green economy. The renewable energy sector was the biggest recipient of FDI globally in both 2020 and 2021, taking over from Coal, Oil and Gas which had been ...

ANSA Voice Daily
Polis - Manovra, caccia grossa al cinghiale (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2022 5:39


L'emendamento di Foti “non si tocca”, respinta richiesta stralcio dell'opposizione.

ANSA Voice Daily
Polis - Codice appalti, il governo vara la riforma (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2022 7:13


Deidda (FdI), aiuterà l'Italia. Braga (Pd), non convince, speriamo cambi.

Mexico Matters
Catching the Nearshoring Wave—by Accident

Mexico Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2022 27:17


In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alonso Cervera, Managing Director in the Emerging Markets Economics Research team of Credit Suisse about Mexico's record flows of foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2022, Mexico's strengths and weaknesses to take a share of China's exports to the U.S., and about how—despite current economic policies — Mexico will be able to catch the nearshoring wave. They also speak about the possible risks that could slow this trajectory and the economic outlook for 2023.

VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận
Tiêu điểm: Thu hút FDI 2022 - bắt nhịp xu hướng phục hồi kinh tế

VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2022 7:15


- Năm 2022, mặc dù nước ta chịu ảnh hưởng của đại dịch COVID 19, các cuộc xung đột trên thế giới, lạm phát diễn ra trên toàn cầu, nhưng niềm tin của nhà đầu tư vào nền kinh tế và môi trường đầu tư kinh doanh của Việt Nam tiếp tục tăng lên. Điều này được minh chứng qua nguồn vốn đăng ký mới vào Việt nam 11 tháng qua tăng 23% và giải ngân vốn đầu tư FDI vào Việt Nam đạt gần 20 tỷ đô la Mỹ, tăng trên 15 % so với cùng kỳ. Nếu tính bình quân mỗi tháng, đây là số vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài thực hiện cao nhất trong vòng 5 năm qua. Đúng như dự báo năm 2022, dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài vào Việt Nam được khởi sắc trở lại nhờ những chính sách thu hút đầu tư hấp dẫn và chủ trương mở cửa trở lại nền kinh tế sau hai năm bị tác động bởi dịch bệnh Covid-19. Chủ đề : Thu hút FDI 2022, nhịp xu hướng, phục hồi kinh tế --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1sukien/support

Fully Threaded Radio
Episode #183 - Down Hill

Fully Threaded Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2022 154:11


Like a bobsled down a frozen precipice, the fastener industry streaks to the close of another blazing fast year. Fresh off the slopes, Mr. Charlie Kerr of Kerr Lakeside discovers a vexing industry development, and shares his approach to achieving top speed on skis (1:39:54).  Metric supplier Eurolink finishes the year with new beginnings, as CEO Craig Penland finds ways to expand during periods of upheaval (17:20).  The FDI changes direction as strong sales push a new rally, but will it last?  Senior news editor Mike McNulty welcomes AFC Industries VP of Sales John Kovatch to the Fastener News Report to discuss the unexpected uptick (56:46). On the Fastener Training Minute, Carmen Vertullo teaches the fine art of monel passivation (1:26:28). BONUS: Scanwell Logistics analyst Chris Donnell explains why the train strike issue may still be an up hill battle (52:22).  Brian and Eric strive for seasonal jolliness even as all runs show black diamonds. Run time:  2:34:11

ANSA Voice Daily
Polis - Ue, Meloni incassa il via libera dal Parlamento (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2022 6:06


Bruxelles, giudizio sostanzialmente positivo sulla manovra. Il punto con il senatore del Pd Alfieri.

VOV - Kinh tế Tài chính
Dòng chảy kinh tế: Thu hút FDI 2022: Bắt nhịp xu hướng phục hồi kinh tế

VOV - Kinh tế Tài chính

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2022 14:44


- Năm 2022, mặc dù nước ta chịu ảnh hưởng của đại dịch COVID 19, các cuộc xung đột trên thế giới, lạm phát diễn ra trên toàn cầu, nhưng niềm tin của nhà đầu tư vào nền kinh tế và môi trường đầu tư kinh doanh của Việt Nam tiếp tục tăng lên. Điều này được minh chứng qua nguồn vốn đăng ký mới vào Việt nam 11 tháng qua tăng 23% và giải ngân vốn đầu tư FDI vào Việt Nam đạt gần 20 tỷ đô la Mỹ, tăng trên 15 % so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. - Với một nền kinh tế có độ mở rất cao như Việt Nam, cùng xu hướng dịch chuyển dòng vốn đầu tư từ các nước vào khu vực Asean, nước ta đang là điểm đến hàng đầu của các nhà đầu tư. Nguồn vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) trở thành một yếu tố quan trọng giúp kinh tế Việt Nam phục hồi sau đại dịch Covid-19. Tuy nhiên, vấn đề được đặt ra là làm thế nào để thu hút FDI có chất lượng cao; các bộ, ngành, địa phương cần có giải pháp gì trong ngắn hạn và lâu dài để hợp tác đầu tư nước ngoài hướng đến phát triển bền vững? Dòng chảy kinh tế hôm nay, chúng ta cùng nhìn lại lĩnh vực thu hút đầu tư đầu tư nước ngoài năm 2022 và một số đề xuất của các chuyên gia về giải pháp trong hợp tác đầu tư thời gian tới. Chủ đề : Thu hút FDI chất lượng cao, KCN sinh thái, KCN Nam Cầu Kiền --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1kd/support

First Move with Julia Chatterley
Feature interview: ATHEX Group CEO Yianos Kontopoulos

First Move with Julia Chatterley

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2022 45:28


Despite an economic slowdown across much of Europe, the Greek government is forecasting 5.6% growth in 2022, with a comeback in tourism and strong domestic consumption both playing their parts. Foreign investors have taken note, with foreign direct investment (FDI) of $5 billion last year. Joining Julia to discuss is Yainos Kontopoulos, CEO of ATHEX Group, the parent company of the Greek stock exchange.   Also on today's show: Julia interviews the brand-new CEO of shipping giant Maersk, Vincent Clerc. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

UCD Business Impact
S3 Ep6: Season 3 Episode 6 - Taxing Times

UCD Business Impact

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2022 36:47


Anna Scally | International Tax Partner, Head of Technology and Media, and FinTech Lead, KPMG Ireland 13th December 2022. KPMG Partner and UCD Quinn School alumna Anna Scally discusses whether Ireland can remain an FDI leader and the future of Ireland's tech cluster. 

Irish Tech News Audio Articles
Highest Increase in FDI Employment ever – IDA Ireland

Irish Tech News Audio Articles

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2022 11:49


IDA Ireland, the inward investment promotion and development agency of the Irish Government, today reported strong annual results for 2022 with a substantial increase in growth in FDI employment on 2021. Total employment in IDA client companies in Ireland now stands at 301,4751, a 9% increase on 2021. 103 of the 242 investments won in 2022 were new name investments. Job losses remained at historically low levels with 8,407 recorded in the past year giving a net jobs total of 24,019 for 2022. Total employment in IDA client companies in core sectors grew in 2022, up 9% to 116,192 in Information and Communications Services, up 8% 105,199 in modern manufacturing, 5.6% in traditional manufacturing to 23,658 and up 9% to 56,426 in business, financial and other services. The strong growth in regions continued this year with 127 – or 52% of the investments won going to regional locations and employment growth recorded in every region of the country. Employment growth was highest in the Mid East region; up 13.1% to 21,861. The Midlands Region was up 10.5% to 7,665, Dublin was also up 10.5% to 137,822, the South West was up 7.5% to 52,228, the West region was up 7.3% to 31,490 the Mid West recorded a growth increase of 3.6% to 26,004 and there was growth of 3% in the South East, to 15,520. With sustainability one of five pillars of our strategy, IDA's strong focus was evident in the number of sustainability project approvals in 2022 with 21 investments secured, the majority of them focused on climate change mitigation. A focus on transformation is more important than ever if companies are to remain competitive amid an accelerating shift towards a low carbon and high-tech economy. The resilience and longevity of MNCs in Ireland reflects their ability to constantly transform in response to change. IDA is engaging with clients on RD&I, training, digitisation and sustainability related investments to ensure the FDI base is positioned for continued success in the future. The 2022 figures continue the pattern of sustained, robust growth in FDI investment and FDI-related employment that has been achieved over a continuous period of more than ten years. However, at the announcement of our mid-year results in July, we pointed to serious global challenges and uncertainties. It is now evident that the global economy faces serious headwinds in 2023 with the continuing Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, monetary policy and geo-political developments. IDA continues to monitor the situation in the global technology sector and continues to actively engage with its technology client base. The layoffs announced in recent weeks are regrettable and our thoughts are with those who have lost, or are in the process of, losing their jobs. The companies that have announced job losses in recent days will continue to operate in Ireland and are important companies in the global and Irish ecosystem. IDA's focus is on the continued partnership with these companies to continue to grow their presence in Ireland and deepen their impact on the Irish economy. The technology base in Ireland has been building for over 60 years and will continue to grow in the future, despite current challenges. The underlying strength in the technology sector is driven by a number of factors, including the pace of digitalisation (across all sectors) and the associated need for new digital infrastructure and services. An Tánaiste & Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment Leo Varadkar T.D. said: “Ireland has not been immune to the challenges created by global events of recent months, and we expect those to continue into 2023. However, these figures show that Ireland continues to be seen as a location of choice for new investors and long-established companies who chose to reinvest in substantial expansions of their operations here. These are the best ever FDI employment figures in a single year – 24,019 net new jobs represent a 43% increase on 2021, which itself was a record year. The numb...

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới
Tin trong nước: Chọn lọc để thu hút dự án đầu tư có chất lượng

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2022 3:05


- Đầu tư nước ngoài (FDI) thời gian qua là một trong các nguồn lực quan trọng cho phát triển kinh tế, song đã nảy sinh những vấn đề bất cập. Cụ thể như một số doanh nghiệp FDI chuyển giá và trốn thuế; những rủi ro tác động tiêu cực tới môi trường mà các dự án FDI có thể gây, người lao động bị đối xử thiếu công bằng, thậm chí ngược đãi cũng đã xảy ra tại một số doanh nghiệp có vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài… Trước thực tế này, các chuyên gia cho rằng, cần có thêm các tiêu chí để thu hút các dự án FDI có chất lượng từ các nhà đầu tư với tiêu chí kinh doanh có trách nhiệm là rất cần thiết. Tác giả : Nguyễn Hằng/VOV1 Chủ đề : chọn lọc, dự án, đầu tư --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1tintuc/support

Focus economia
TraOttimo 2022 per il vino italiano, cautela per il 2023smissione del 07 dicembre 2022

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2022


L'export agroalimentare italiano conferma un bilancio positivo, con più di 59 miliardi di euro a fine anno (+16% rispetto al 2021) grazie anche al fondamentale apporto di vini, spiriti e aceti che raggiungono massimi storici. Questi ultimi, nello specifico, si dovrebbe toccare il record degli 8 miliardi di euro (+12% rispetto all'anno precedente), così come per gli spirits (1,7 miliardi di euro). Ad aiutare i consumi fuori casa che, nonostante il difficile contesto macroeconomico, crescono grazie alla ripresa delle attività turistiche: +38%, che genera 1,1 miliardi di consumazioni, valore destinato a crescere fino a 1,5 miliardi con la chiusura dell'anno. Per quanto riguarda il futuro il settore dovrà continuare a fare i conti con l'impennata dei prezzi dell'energia e con la difficoltà di reperire alcuni materiali, come il vino. Difficoltà che impongono cautela sulle previsioni del 2023. Ne parliamo con Micaela Pallini, Presidente Federvini.Salta lo scudo penale e sportivo con super condono per salvare il calcioLe inefficienze del sistema calcistico italiano, aggravate dalla pandemia, hanno accumulato oltre 3 miliardi di perdite nel triennio 2019-2022. L'insieme dei debiti congelati per le società sportive professionistiche e dilettantistiche superano gli 800 milioni, tra ritenute Irpef, contributi e Iva. Ovviamente gran parte (tra i 500 e i 600 milioni) riguardano la Serie A. Nei giorni scorsi il Parlamento ha prodotto un emendamento di fatto bipartisan all'articolo 13 del Dl Aiuti quater (n. 176/2022) che prevede una dilazione in 60 rate d'imposte e contributi in scadenza il 22 dicembre, ma congelando tutte le sanzioni. La richiesta di rateizzazione parte della maggioranza (Fi e FdI), con l'appoggio di Pd, M5S, Maie e Misto, ed è accompagnato da un maxi scudo penale, sportivo e amministrativo. Ipotesi di "salvataggio" che, stando a quanto emerge, non vedrà mai luce. Giorgia Meloni, secondo quanto riferito da alcuni partecipanti, nel corso della riunione con i capigruppo di maggioranza, avrebbe dichiarato: "Lo scudo penale per le società di calcio è insostenibile". La premier ha legato la situazione di alcune società calcistiche - riferiscono sempre - più a questioni di malagestione che altro. Approfondiamo il tema con Marco Bellinazzo de Il Sole 24 Ore.Arrivano gli emendamenti alla Manovra. Meloni ai sindacati: risorse limitate, il governo deve fare delle scelteNel corso dell'incontro da parte dei sindacati sono state avanzate molte proposte sensate ma spetta al governo la responsabilità di fare delle scelte e se mettessimo in fila tutte le richieste non ci sarebbero le risorse per fare tutto . Lo ha detto, secondo quanto si apprende, la presidente del Consiglio Giorgia Meloni nel corso dell'incontro con i sindacati a Palazzo Chigi sulla manovra. La premier ha però assicurato che si tenterà di fare qualcosa di più adesso, se non sarà possibile lavoreremo in Cdm per farlo in tempi più brevi possibili . Tra i primi dossier c è quello del cuneo fiscale: Noi abbiamo fatto scelte di emergenza ma siamo assolutamente d'accordo sul tema del taglio del costo lavoro: è una nostra priorità, sarei felicissima anch'io di poter fare di più, avrebbe detto la premier. Ne parliamo con Dino Pesole, editorialista de Il Sole 24 Ore.

24 Mattino - Le interviste

Con la legge di bilancio approvata dal Governo, il reddito di cittadinanza subirà già dal 2023 una severa revisione. Secondo l'ufficio parlamentare di bilancio un percettore su tre lo perderà entro agosto.Ne parliamo con Walter Rizzetto, deputato di FdI, presidente della commissione Lavoro ed Andrea Garnero, economista dell'Ocse.

Thoughts on the Market
Global Thematics: What's Behind India's Growth Story?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2022 7:21


As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what's driving this growth and how it may create once-in-a-generation opportunities. Head of Global Thematic and Public Policy Research Michael Zezas and Chief India Equity Strategist Ridham Desai discuss.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Thematic and Public Policy Research. Ridham Desai: And I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's Chief India Equity Strategist. Michael Zezas: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss India's growth story over the next decade and some key investment themes that global investors should pay attention to. It's Wednesday, December 7th, at 7 a.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: Our listeners are likely well aware that over the past 25 years or so, India's growth has lagged only China's among the world's largest economies. And here at Morgan Stanley, we believe India will continue to outperform. In fact, India is now entering a new era of growth, which creates a once in a generation shift in opportunities for investors. We estimate that India's GDP is poised to more than doubled to $7.5 trillion by 2031, and its market capitalization could grow 11% annually to reach $10 trillion. Essentially, we expect India to drive about a fifth of global growth in the coming decade. So Ridham, what in your view are the main drivers behind India's growth story? Ridham Desai: Mike, the full global trends of demographics, digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization that we keep discussing about in our research files are favoring this new India. The new India, we argue, is benefiting from three idiosyncratic factors. The first one is India is likely to increase its share of global exports thanks to a surge in offshoring. Second, India is pursuing a distinct model for digitalization of its economy, supported by a public utility called India Stack. Operating at population scale India stack is a transaction led, low cost, high volume, small ticket size system with embedded lending. The digital revolution has already changed the way India handles documents, the way it invests and makes payments and it is now set to transform the way it lends, spends and ensures. With private credit to GDP at just 57%, a credit boom is in the offing, in our view. The third driver is India's energy consumption and energy sources, which are changing in a disruptive fashion with broad economic benefits. On the back of greater access to energy, we estimate per capita energy consumption is likely to rise by 60% to 1450 watts per day over the next decade. And with two thirds of this incremental supply coming from renewable sources, well in short, with this self-help story in play as you said, India could continue to outperform the world on GDP growth in the coming decade. Michael Zezas: So let's dig into some of the specifics here. You mentioned the big surge in offshoring, which has resulted in India's becoming "the office of the world". Will this continue long term? Ridham Desai: Yes, Mike. In the post-COVID environment, global CEOs appear more comfortable with work from home and also work from India. So the emergence of distributed delivery models, along with tighter labor markets globally, has accelerated outsourcing to India. In fact, the number of global in-house captive centers that opened in India over the past two years was double of that in the prior four years. During the pandemic years, the number of people employed in this industry in India rose by almost 800,000 to 5.1 million. And India's share in global services trade rose by 60 basis points to 4.3%. In the coming decade we think the number of people employed in India for jobs outside the country is likely to at least double to 11 million. And we think that global spending on outsourcing could rise from its current level of U.S. dollar 180 billion per year to about 1/2 trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. Michael Zezas: In addition to being "the office of the world", you see India as a "factory to the world" with manufacturing going up. What evidence are we seeing of India benefiting from China moving away from the global supply chain and shifting business activity away from China? Ridham Desai: We are anticipating a wave of manufacturing CapEx owing to government policies aimed at lifting corporate profits share and GDP via tax cuts, and some hard dollars on the table for investing in specific sectors. Multinationals are more optimistic than ever before about investing in India, and that's evident in the all-time high that our MNC sentiment index shows, and the government is encouraging investments by building both infrastructure as well as supplying land for factories. The trends outlined in Morgan Stanley's Multipolar World Thesis, a document that you have co authored, Mike, and the cheap labor that India is now able to offer relative to, say, China are adding to the mix. Indeed, the fact is that India is likely to also be a big consumption market, a hard thing for a lot of multinational corporations to ignore. We are forecasting India's per capita GDP to rise from $2,300 USD to about $5,200 USD in the next ten years. This implies that India's income pyramid offers a wide breadth of consumption, with the number of rich households likely to quintuple from 5 million to 25 million, and the middle class households more than doubling to 165 million. So all these are essentially aiding the story on India becoming a factory to the world. And the evidence is in the sharp jump in FDI that we are already seeing, the daily news flows of how companies are ramping up manufacturing in India, to both gain access to its market and to export to other countries. Michael Zezas: So given all these macro trends we've been discussing, what sectors within India's economy do you think are particularly well-positioned to benefit both short term and longer term? Ridham Desai: Three sectors are worth highlighting here. The coming credit boom favors financial services firms. The rise in per capita income and discretionary income implies that consumer discretionary companies should do well. And finally, a large CapEx cycle could lead to a boom for industrial businesses. So financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. Michael Zezas: Finally, what are the biggest potential impediments and risks to India's success? Ridham Desai: Of course, things could always go wrong. We would include a prolonged global recession or sluggish growth, adverse outcomes in geopolitics and/or domestic politics. India goes to the polls in 2024, so another election for the country to decide upon. Policy errors, shortages of skilled labor, I would note that as a key risk. And steep rises in energy and commodity prices in the interim as India tries to change its energy sources. So all these are risk factors that investors should pay attention to. That said, we think that the pieces are in place to make this India's decade.Michael Zezas: Ridham, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ridham Desai: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.

Boardroom Hustle
Ep. 77 - How is being a good board chair like being a great dinner host? (With Matt Fullbrook)

Boardroom Hustle

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2022 31:22


In the last of our series we Matt we talk about one of the most important people in the boardroom...the Chair. You've probably heard the analogy about the board chair being like an orchestra conductor. Matt Fullbrook of Fullbrook Board Effective thinks that's bunkum. He has a different analogy - and it's to do with dinner parties. FDI's Paul riffs with Matt on making board leadership better.  We workshop: Is leadership evolving? The conventional understanding of a board chair Introducing a new analogy - board chairs as great dinner hosts The role of the board in co-creating the right atmos for decision-making How to chair better in a virtual environment Should we have 2 chairs? 1 for the mechanical stuff, another for the generative stuff? The power of practice and play in breaking board norms Connect with Matt FullbrookLinkedinTwitter Board Effectiveness Connect with Future Directors InstituteFuture Directors Insititute Paul Smith on LinkedIn Follow Future Directors on LinkedIn

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới
Tin trong nước: Sàng lọc dự án FDI sẽ nâng cao chất lượng đầu tư tại Việt Nam

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2022 3:59


- Liên đoàn Thương mại và Công nghiệp Việt Nam (VCCI) cùng Chương trình Phát triển Liên Hợp Quốc tại Việt Nam (UNDP) đã giới thiệu, lấy ý kiến đóng góp để hoàn thiện và triển khai thực hiện Bộ công cụ sàng lọc các dự án đầu tư tại Việt Nam với mong muốn nâng cao chất lượng môi trường đầu tư tại Việt Nam. Nhiều chuyên gia kiến nghị, cần có những giải pháp để áp dụng phù hợp với mỗi địa phương, không để Bộ công cụ sàng lọc này trở thành rào cản đối với nhà đầu tư nước ngoài và cần có sự kết nối để các nhà sản xuất nội địa và doanh nghiệp FDI cùng nhau phát triển. Tác giả : Hoàng Minh/VOV TPHCM Chủ đề : sàng lọc, dự an, fdi --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1tintuc/support

Irish Tech News Audio Articles
Women encouraged to join ‘Digital Athlete' – a career pathway connecting passion for sport with tech

Irish Tech News Audio Articles

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2022 5:16


Ireland's sports tech industry has helped to design a new ‘Digital Athlete' programme to help people build careers in the country's growing number of sports technology companies. Through a new collaboration between Technology Ireland Digital Skillnet and SportsTech Ireland, a new career pathway into the industry has been created. The first wave of recruitment for ‘Digital Athlete' is aimed at women. On completion of the programme, participants will achieve a recognised data analytics accreditation and a mentored work placement in a sports tech company in Ireland. With companies such as Stats Perform, Orreco, Kitman Labs, DraftKings, Fitbit, Strava all based here, Ireland is now recognised as a global centre of excellence for SportsTech. ‘Digital Athlete' organisers want to hear from women who enjoy sport and have a digital mindset, pointing out that applicants don't necessarily need deep technology knowledge. They are looking for women who love sport and are open to developing new digital skills in a dynamic environment which provides active involvement with SportsTech companies. The growth of the sector is notable, bringing many new career opportunities to Ireland. Sports tech companies work across IoT, sports performance, data analytics, broadcast, wearable tech, fan engagement, e-sports and sports ecommerce. Globally, the global sports tech market was valued at $17.9 billion in 2021 and is projected to growth to $41 billion by 2026. The sub-sector of the Sports Data Analytics market is predicted to reach almost $6 billion by 2026. Commenting on the launch of Digital Athlete, Maire Hunt, Technology Ireland Digital Skillnet Network Director, said: “Through the Digital Athlete programme, sports enthusiasts can now fully participate in the digital revolution. We are running the first programme specifically for women to help them access the many job opportunities that are out there. “The Digital Athlete Programme is looking for people with a passion for sports, coupled with a digital mindset. With the right interests and mindset, our expert group of tutors and mentors will provide the skills in data analysis and innovation, familiarisation with the different areas within SportsTech, interaction with SportsTech company leaders and an opportunity to see what it's like working in a SportsTech company.” Grainne Barry, SVP Operations, Stats Perform said: “Stats Perform is committed to driving diversity and inclusion within the SportsTech industry. The Digital Athlete women's programme provides an opportunity for us to work with new talent identification and development initiatives. The Digital Athlete programme enables SportsTech companies to participate in the development of skill sets needed for the industry as it embraces digital transformation and the evolution of fan engagement.” Martina Skelly, Director of SportsTech Ireland, said: “SportsTech Ireland is excited to be part of Digital Athlete, with the Technology Ireland Digital Skillnet. The industry of sport has changed as teams, leagues, broadcasters, have embraced new technologies and digital opportunities. As a technology industry, SportsTech is moving mainstream. “We know that Ireland is a leader in the global SportsTech sector, and many great career opportunities exist in this exciting space. Focused on the convergent career of Sport with Tech, our companies want to ensure that women can fully avail of the new career opportunities that SportsTech can offer. So, we are calling for women who are interested in sport to apply and let us help open new opportunities for you through the Digital Athlete programme.” Supply and availability of sufficiently qualified employees is key to continued sectoral development. Currently this is the biggest constraint facing both the FDI and SME SportsTech network within Ireland. In 2023, the new partnership of the Technology Ireland Digital Skillnet and SportsTech Ireland will bring a new suite of domain-specific programmes to enable the ...

Boardroom Hustle
BONUS FUTURE DIRECTOR AWARDS EP: If you want to be what your board needs, be deliberate (with Leah Fricke)

Boardroom Hustle

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 39:19


Leah Fricke has a term for the meat she brings to her non-executive director roles: “Deliberate Practice”. It's about consciously and continually reflecting on what your board will need in 3 years, and actively becoming it – through extracurricular learning and self-development. It's what made Leah stand out to FDI judges to become 2022's first ever Future Director Of The Year. And it's what might make you stand out in the boardroom too (and this year's Awards).  Paul and Leah discuss: Leah's traditional, yet untraditional, journey to the boardroom How limited time/money can actually focus a board's attention A cut-throat quality that keeps Leah sharp – upskill or step aside Expounding on “Deliberate Practice”: The power of a growth mindset and continual questioning of oneself And lastly, Leah's judging this year's Future Director/Board Of The Year Awards. What's she looking for?  

BFM :: General
New Government, New Incentives, New FDIs?

BFM :: General

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 10:42


The Anwar Ibrahim administration has its work cut out as rising competition for a limited share of the FDI pie from Indonesia and Vietnam. So far, Malaysia has attracted RM54 billion in net inflows for the first nine months of this year. But what will the strategy for this new government look like as it banks on the existing strong infrastructure and a slew of incentives to attract multinational companies to the country. Daniel Bernbeck, CEO of the Malaysian-German Chamber of Commerce & Industry talks about what MNCs want versus what might be offered.Image credit: Shutterstock

BFM :: Morning Brief
New Government, New Incentives, New FDIs?

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 10:42


The Anwar Ibrahim administration has its work cut out as rising competition for a limited share of the FDI pie from Indonesia and Vietnam. So far, Malaysia has attracted RM54 billion in net inflows for the first nine months of this year. But what will the strategy for this new government look like as it banks on the existing strong infrastructure and a slew of incentives to attract multinational companies to the country. Daniel Bernbeck, CEO of the Malaysian-German Chamber of Commerce & Industry talks about what MNCs want versus what might be offered.Image credit: Shutterstock

ANSA Voice Daily
Polis - Decreto Rave, l'azzardo di Forza Italia (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 4:42


VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận
Diễn đàn chủ nhật: Cơ chế khuyến khích tư nhân đầu tư cho tăng trưởng “xanh” ở Việt Nam

VOV - Sự kiện và Bàn luận

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2022 42:22


- Chiến lược quốc gia về tăng trưởng xanh giai đoạn 2021-2030, tầm nhìn 2050 đã được Chính phủ phê duyệt đề ra mục tiêu tổng quát là thúc đẩy cơ cấu lại nền kinh tế gắn với đổi mới mô hình tăng trưởng về kinh tế, bền vững về môi trường và công bằng về xã hội. Quan điểm phát triển của Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 10 năm tới là “phát triển nhanh và bền vững”, đồng thời “phát triển hài hòa giữa kinh tế với văn hóa, xã hội, bảo vệ môi trường và thích ứng với biển đổi khí hậu”. Cam kết mạnh mẽ đạt mức phát thải ròng bằng “0” vào năm 2050 tại Hội nghị thượng đỉnh về biến đổi khí hậu của Liên hợp quốc COP 26 và Chương trình phục hồi và phát triển kinh tế - xã hội được Chính phủ ban hành ngày 30/1/2022 cũng khẳng định quyết tâm phát triển một “nền kinh tế xanh, kinh tế tuần hoàn gắn với phát triển bền vững”. Tại các diễn đàn được tổ chức gần đây, các chuyên gia khẳng định, việc tăng cường đầu tư tư nhân cho tăng trưởng xanh ở Việt Nam đang là yêu cầu đặt ra cấp bách. Cần phải có cơ chế, chính sách phù hợp trong công tác này. Nếu nền kinh tế chậm “xanh hóa” các ngành hàng, nếu các doanh nghiệp chậm “chuyển đổi xanh” từ mô hình hoạt động đến quy trình sản xuất, đầu tư, thương mại, nước ta sẽ bỏ lỡ nhiều cơ hội hợp tác và phát triển. Cùng bàn luận về chủ đề “Cơ chế khuyến khích tư nhân đầu tư cho tăng trưởng “xanh” ở Việt Nam”: - Ông Lưu Đức Khải, Phó trưởng Ban phụ trách, Ban nghiên cứu các vấn đề xã hội, Viện nghiên cứu quản lý kinh tế Trung ương. - Bà Trần Minh Huế, Vụ Khoa học Giáo dục, Tài nguyên và Môi trường, Bộ Kế hoạch và Đầu tư. Chủ đề : Tăng trưởng xanh, Chính sách thu hút đầu tư tư nhân, Giải pháp thu hút FDI chất lượng cao --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/vov1sukien/support

Fully Threaded Radio
Episode #182 - Asking For It

Fully Threaded Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2022 135:45


Selling fasteners begins by asking for the order, as Tim "Action" Jackson proved during an illustrious career in the thread game (1:30:37).  Newly appointed Marine Fasteners CEO Dee Ward asks his team for their best whenever he takes the field (15:31). Fastener newsman Mike McNulty asks about the decline of the FDI with Earnest CEO Kirk Zehnder on the Fastener News Report, then explains what it takes to stay happy during all economic circumstances (47:38). Carmen Vertullo breaks new ground as he discusses T & A as it pertains to stainless structural bolts on the Fastener Training Minute (1:19:01).  Meanwhile, Brian and Eric see the unfolding effects of applied modern monetary theory and wonder who is asking for what. Run time: 02:15:45

ANSA Voice Daily
Autonomie, la protesta delle regioni (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2022 9:42


ANSA Voice Daily
I dubbi di Gemmato sui vaccini. Pd, si dimetta (di Anna Laura Bussa)

ANSA Voice Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2022 4:50


Sottosegretario minimizza: “Io frainteso”. Foti: “Frasi decontestualizzate”

All Things Policy
Competitive Federalism in India

All Things Policy

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2022 29:16


Move aside cooperative federalism, it is time for competitive federalism. Can Indian States compete with each other for investment and development? If so, how do we ensure that States - big & small and developed & underdeveloped - compete on an equal footing? Can the Union government play the role of an unbiased umpire and monitor the States? How do we set hard budget constraints so that States do not go down the spiral of offering more tax breaks and subsidies to attract investors? What legal and administrative reforms are needed to enable competitive federalism in India?To answer these questions and more, Shrikrishna Upadhyaya hosts Pranay Kotasthane for a deep dive into the tenets, contours and challenges of competitive federalism.You can follow Shrikrishna Upadhyaya on twitter: https://twitter.com/shrikrishna5You can follow Pranay Kotasthane on twitter: https://twitter.com/pranaykotasCheck out Takshashila's courses: https://school.takshashila.org.in/You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the IVM Podcasts app on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/ios, or any other podcast app.You can check out our website at https://shows.ivmpodcasts.com/featuredDo follow IVM Podcasts on social media.We are @IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram.https://twitter.com/IVMPodcastshttps://www.instagram.com/ivmpodcasts/?hl=enhttps://www.facebook.com/ivmpodcasts/Follow the show across platforms:Spotify, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Gaana, Amazon Music Do share the word with your folks!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Enterprising Families Podcast
Dr Sarah Burns shares on Impactful Investment and the Family Business

Enterprising Families Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2022 24:52


Dr Sarah Burns shares on Impactful Investment and the Family Business About: Sarah Burns recently concluded her PhD at the University of Oxford studying as a 2016 Rhodes Scholar. Her research focused on how to contribute to private sector development ethically and sustainably in frontier and fragile markets. She specialized in both the contributions of FDI as well as local SME's/ventures to this process. Throughout her PhD, Sarah lived and worked in Liberia and Sierra Leone, two of the most challenging countries in the world to conduct business in. Since 2018, Sarah has also consulted for impact investors to help develop a theory of change and impact measurement systems. She has done advisory work for CDC (BII), World Bank, IFC, and other private impact funds. Since 2021, Sarah has been connecting investors to exceptional and SDG-focused investment opportunities through her own company called Nia Impact Investments. She provides investment readiness technical assistance and helps match investors to high-quality deal flow. She works closely with networks and opportunities across 15 different African countries.

Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Research Rap: A new tracker for EM capital flows

Global Data Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2022 16:35


Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss the recently launched EM capital flows monitor, a new tool for tracking and nowcasting capital flows in Emerging Markets EM capital flows have become more diversified in the last ten years. FDI and loans carry more weight. Portfolio flows have weakened. Resident flows have become as large as non-resident flows. This is starkly different from the pre-2013 era, when resident outflows were small and capital flow dynamics were largely driven by foreign portfolio flows.   This podcast was recorded on October 31, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237103-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4247869-0.pdf, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4120737-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Focus economia
La Bce alza i tassi d interesse di 75 punti base e si aspetta nuovi rialzi

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2022


La Banca centrale europea ha portato il tasso di riferimento al 2%, con un rialzo di 0,75 punti percentuali, il secondo consecutivo dopo la stretta di settembre (e il rialzo di 50 punti base di luglio). Il tasso sui depositi sale all 1,5% e il tasso sui prestiti marginali al 2,25%. Lo comunica la Bce dopo la riunione del Consiglio direttivo, che ha anche modificato le condizioni per le Tltro e fissato al tasso sui depositi la remunerazione delle riserve obbligatorie. Alle operazioni di rifinanziamento di lungo periodo, in particolare, sarà applicato un tasso indicizzato alle media dei tassi Bce del periodo di durata del prestito, e saranno offerte nuove opportunità di rimborso. A dicembre saranno inoltre discussi i principi sulla riduzione del portafoglio di titoli, ha spiegato in conferenza stampa la presidente Christine Lagarde. Ne parliamo con Donato Masciandaro, docente politiche monetarie università Bocconi, editorialista Sole 24 Ore. Dallo sforamento a quota 100 al tetto al contante, passando per la cancellazione delle multe ai no-vax: la Lega forza la mano Dall'insistenza di Salvini nel chiedere l'introduzione di Quota 41 per le pensioni(per l'Inps costerebbe 18 miliardi in tre anni), utilizzando magari fondi sottratti al Reddito di Cittadinanza, fino all'innalzamento del tetto al contante, la Lega sembra alla ricerca di un posizionamento forte all'interno della maggioranza che le permetta di distinguersi dal primo azionista della coalizione: Fratelli d'Italia. L'ultima iniziativa è quella della richiesta di arrivare alla cancellazione delle sanzioni per le multe di 100 euro per gli ultra cinquantenni che, prima del 15 gennaio 2022 non risultino in regola con gli obblighi vaccinali sul Covid. Il ministro per i rapporti con il Parlamento Luca Ciriani, in quota FdI, ha proposto "solo" il congelamento delle multe. Il tutto succede mentre il ministro della Salute Orazio Schillaci annuncia l'istituzione di una commissione d'inchiesta per la gestione della pandemia. Approfondiamo il tema conAlberto Orioli, vicedirettore de Il Sole 24 Ore. Meta alla resa dei conti: in fumo nel metaverso 9,4 miliardi in nove mesi. Il titolo precipita in Borsa Nove miliardi, anzi 9,4 miliardi, in nove mesi. Tanto ha perso la divisione Reality Labs di Meta, cuore della sua travagliata e ancora tutta da verificare scommessa tecnologica e culturale sul Metaverso, una volta contato anche il passivo del terzo trimestre, che si è gonfiato ulteriormente. E quando a simili dubbi sul futuro si sommano le difficoltà del presente, con la frana di quella pubblicità tuttora motore del business nel clima di crisi economica che avanza, l'esito è una vera e propria tempesta perfetta: quella sui conti in declino del colosso dei social network e dell'universo digitale di Mark Zuckerberg. Meta ha deluso negli ultimi tre mesi e previsto ulteriori scivoloni nel quarto trimestre in corso. Ne parliamo con Andrea Biondi de Il Sole 24 Ore.