The Bayesian Conspiracy

Follow The Bayesian Conspiracy
Share on
Copy link to clipboard

A conversational podcast for the less hardcore rationalist, who wants to level-up their rational skills while having fun.

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Donate to The Bayesian Conspiracy


    • May 28, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 1h 32m AVG DURATION
    • 292 EPISODES

    4.7 from 41 ratings Listeners of The Bayesian Conspiracy that love the show mention: rationality, website, wrong, ideas, fun, topics, conversations, friends, heard, hosts, interesting, better, entertaining, good, listening, great, like jagskajouska.



    Search for episodes from The Bayesian Conspiracy with a specific topic:

    Latest episodes from The Bayesian Conspiracy

    238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

    Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025 86:10


    We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who's converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can't get over the abandonment of epistemics. πŸ™ This is Part 2, see the previous episode (here) for Part 1. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter Paid … Continue reading β†’

    237 – How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

    Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2025 86:53


    We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who's converting to Christianity about why. Part one, it turns out. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter The Rationalist Summer Trifecta: Manifest 2025 LessOnline 2025 VibeCamp 2025 00:00:05 – OK so why? 01:24:55 – … Continue reading β†’

    236 – Twilight of the Edgelords with Liam Nolan

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 107:29


    Eneasz and Liam discuss Scott Alexander's post β€œTwilight of the Edgelords,” an exploration of Truth, Morality, and how one balances love of truth vs not destabilizing the world economy and political regime. CORRECTION: Scott did make an explicitly clear pro … Continue reading β†’

    235 – Gender Differences, with Wes and Jen

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 144:14


    Wes Fenza and Jen Kesteloot join us to talk about whether there's significant personality differences between men and women, and what (if anything) we should do about that. LINKS Wes's post Men and Women are Not That Different Jacob's quoted … Continue reading β†’

    234 – GiveDirectly, with Nick Allardice

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2025 112:54


    We speak to Nick Allardice, President & CEO of GiveDirectly. Afterwards Steven and Eneasz get wrapped up talking about community altruism for a bit. LINKS Give Directly GiveDirectly Tech Innovation Fact Sheet 00:00:05 – Give Directly with Nick Allardice 01:12:19 … Continue reading β†’

    233 – AI Policy in D.C., with Dave Kasten

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 91:01


    Dave Kasten joins us to discuss how AI is being discussed in the US government and gives a rather inspiring and hopeful take. LINKS Narrow Path Center for AI Policy Dave Kasten's Essay on the Essay Meta on his Substack … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 41 – AI Action Plan

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2025 4:33


    The White House wants to hear from you regarding what it should do about AI safety. Now's your chance to spend a few minutes to make someone read your thoughts on the subject! Submissions are due by midnight EST on … Continue reading β†’

    232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John Bennett

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2025 91:20


    John Bennett discusses Milton Friedmanβ€˜s model of policy change. LINKS The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change John Bennett's LinkedIn Friedman's β€œCapitalism and Freedom” Preface Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog β€œEvery Bay Area Walled … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 40 – HPMOR 10 Year Anniversary Parties

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2025 11:57


    Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one's happening near you? Fill this out!

    231 – SuperBabies, with Gene Smith

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2025 108:33


    Gene Smith on polygenic screening; gene editing to give our children the happiest, healthiest, best lives they can live; and if we can do this in adults as well. Plus how this will interface with the AI future. Β  LINKS … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 39 – Ladylike for Autistics

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2025 22:00


    Eneasz tells Jen about Sympathetic Opposition's How and Why to be Ladylike (For Women with Autism), and the podcast takes a 1-episode break

    230 – Making Dating Not Suck with Jacob Falkovich

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2025 81:24


    Jacob Falkovich on finding a good match and selfless dating LINKS SecondPerson.Dating – why dating sucks and how you will unsuck it Jacob's post on soccer player skill distribution Go Fuck Someone Selfless Dating Consensual Hostility (re consent culture) steelmanning … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 38 – Shitcoins

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2025 4:08


    How shitcoins work, plus the Dumb Money movie about the GameStop squeeze.

    Bayes Blast 37 – Kill Your Friend's Cat

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2025 6:31


    Why you definitely should kill your friend's cat if you promised to kill your friend's cat. (+Q&A) This is a lightning talk given at the Rationalist MegaMeetup 2024. Based on this Twitter Poll

    229 – Integrating Emotions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2025 86:37


    Eric discusses integrating our emotions via observation and adjustment. His free course is at EnjoyExisting.org or email him – eric@ericlanigan.com LINKS EnjoyExisting.org Ugh Fields You Have Two Brains – Eneasz spends more words on this emotion-brain speculation at this blog … Continue reading β†’

    LW Census 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2024 1:07


    If you haven't yet, go fill out the 2024 LW Census. Right here.

    228 – The Deep Lore of LightHaven, with Oliver Habryka

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2024 126:28


    Oliver tells us how Less Wrong instantiated itself into physical reality, along with a bit of deep lore of foundational Rationalist/EA orgs. Donate to LightCone (caretakers of both LessWrong and LightHaven) here!Β  LINKS LessWrong LightHaven Oliver's very in-depth post on … Continue reading β†’

    227 – Longevity, Aimed Communities, Network States, with Zoe Isabel Senon

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2024 106:12


    We talk to Zoe Isabel Senon about longevity, recent advances, longevity popup cities & group houses, and more (not necessarily in that order). Spoiler: Eneasz is gonna die. πŸ™ Also we learn about Network States! LINKS Vitalist Bay Aevitas House … Continue reading β†’

    226 – The Illusion of Moral Decline

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2024 98:49


    We discuss Adam Mastroianni's β€œThe Illusion of Moral Decline” LINKS The Illusion of Moral Decline Touchat Wearable Blanket Hoodie Lighthaven – Eternal September Our episode with Adam on The Rise and Fall of Peer Review The Mind Killer Scott Aaronson … Continue reading β†’

    225 – Live at Lighthaven!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2024 158:42


    Enjoy the public conversations we had the pleasure of having at our live show at Lighthaven in Berkeley. Special thanks to Andrew, Matt, J, Ben and Garrett! Due to the nature of this recording, it's naturally a bit less refined … Continue reading β†’

    Bonus? The 10-Finger Demon

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2024 53:32


    A hypothetical about a finger-collecting demon throws Eneasz for a major loop.

    Live Show At Lighthaven

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2024 0:49


    If you're near Berkeley on 11/13/24 at 4pm, come see us! Address and info at this link. We'll take a few questions from email at bayesianconspiracypodcast@gmail.com please let us know if you're a supporter so we can give extra thanks … Continue reading β†’

    224 – Cringe Gates and Cultural Drift

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2024 101:37


    We discuss Eneasz's Shrimp Welfare Watches The EA Gates, briefly touch on Hanson's Cultural Drift, and tackle a lot of follow-ups and feedback. LINKS Shrimp Welfare Watches The EA Gates (also at TwitterX) Cultural Drift Significant Digits is here! From … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 36 – AI Grifters in Birmingham

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2024 13:08


    AskWho just attended a β€œlecture” by AI Grifter Tania Duarte Slide The β€œTESCREAL” BungleΒ  by Ozy Brennan AskWho Casts AI podcast

    223 – Going Back to the Classics

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2024 126:50


    Classic, season one adventure this week! Eneasz and Steven have a loosely structured conversation about the sequences' value, the virtue of silence, scissor statements, and the value of philosophy. LINKS Cryonics is Free! Dan Dennett – Where Am I? The … Continue reading β†’

    Bonus – Discord Culture (preview)

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2024 16:43


    Eneasz chats with TBC Discord member Delta about the cultivation of small online cultures. Get the full episode viaΒ our Patreon or our SubStack! Β 

    Bayes Blast 35 – Disproving The Blindsight Thesis

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2024 9:10


    GPT-o1 demonstrates the Blindsight thesis is likely wrong. Peter Watts on Blindsight Andrew Cutler on origins of consciousness part 1 and part 2 Thou Art Godshatter

    Bayes Blast 34 – Content Moderation is Infosec

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2024 15:29


    Steven wanted to share an interesting idea from an article that draws a neat parallel between content moderation and information security. The post discussed here is Como is Infosec.

    222 – Consciousness As Recursive Reflections with Daniel BΓΆttger

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2024 119:09


    We talk with Daniel about his ACX guest post that posits that thoughts are conscious, rather than brains. LINKS Consciousness As Recursive Reflections Seven Secular Sermons Seven Secular Sermons video on TwitterX LightHaven's Eternal September 0:00:05 – Recursive Reflections 01:29:30 … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 33 – Porn Sims

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2024 7:48


    Can we achieve our true potential? based on – Interview Day At Thiel Capital also mentioned: Meetups Everywhere 2024 Are You Jesus or Hitler

    221 – Why The Field? Why Zombies?? with Liam

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2024 148:02


    Eneasz tries to understand why someone would posit a Chalmers Field, and brings up the horrifying implications. LINKS Zombies! Zombies? 2 Rash 2 UnadvisedΒ (the Terra Ignota analysis podcast) The previous TBC episode, where we first discussed other aspects of this … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 32 – Canadian Health Care

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2024 5:23


    220 – Chalmer's Zombies, with Liam

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2024 123:06


    We dig into the classic LW post Zombies! Zombies? and talk a lot of philosophy with Liam from the 2 Rash 2 Unadvised podcast. I (Steven) spent a bunch of time trying to export the conversation from Discord that Liam, … Continue reading β†’

    219 – On Excellence, with Tracing Woodgrains

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2024 82:26


    Inspired by Trace's speech about excellence at VibeCamp 3, Eneasz and Steven speak to Tracing Woodgrains about Excellence and its various aspects LINKS Trace's SubStack Trace's Twitter Wes on TracingWoodgrains as the Nietzschean Superman Gymnastics Then vs Now video Evolution … Continue reading β†’

    218 – Bentham's Bulldog and the Best Argument for God

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2024 134:29


    Spurred by comments from a couple of episodes ago, we wanted to make sure we didn't misrepresent Matthew's position and he agreed to come lay it out for us on the show. Check out the links below to dive in … Continue reading β†’

    217 – Consensual Violence with Rikard

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2024 110:09


    Rikard joins us to speak about the benefits of consensual violence LINKS Rikard's Substack – Drunken Masterpieces Rikard is @rikardhjort Twitter Defense Against the Dark Arts is just the Dark Arts The Ultimate Self-Defense Championship Armchair Violence The poem Rikard … Continue reading β†’

    216 – On Dying (And Cryonics)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2024 148:27


    Rachel Zuber joins us to talk about hospice work, dying in America, and why she's less optimistic about cryonics now. LINKS All the Living and the Dead Caitlin Doughty on YouTube CI cryonics case reports Places of Death in the … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 31 – Blowing Hot Air (Free Version)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2024 18:33


    Brandon comes back to explain how wind works. Steven and Brandon are not the two you want if you want to quickly get to the point so this went on for a good while. It's an awesome conversation and Patrons … Continue reading β†’

    215 – Rationalism and Religion, with Brandon Hendrickson

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2024 138:59


    Brandon Hendrickson takes over the podcast! He interrogates Eneasz about his past, and this crazy rationalist religion idea, and introduces a vast knowledge base of secular religion development. LINKS Brandon's substack, The Lost Tools of Learning Simple square visualization to … Continue reading β†’

    214 – Is Death Good? Simone and Malcolm Collins return!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2024


    The Collinses are back to address follow-up questions, like why is death good? Does population density reduce fertility? Is demographic collapse still a problem? Are child support laws bad? A great discussion is had by all. LINKS Based Camp Three … Continue reading β†’

    213 – Are Transformer Models Aligned By Default?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2024


    Our species has begun to scrute the inscrutable shoggoth! With Matt Freeman πŸ™‚ LINKS Anthropic's latest AI Safety research paper, on interpretability Anthropic is hiring Episode 93 of The Mind Killer Talkin' Fallout VibeCamp 0:00:17 – A Layman's AI Refresher … Continue reading β†’

    212 – Feedback Extravaganza

    Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2024 100:29


    A bit of a change of pace this episode. Eneasz and Steven catch up on some feedback we've had piling up for the last several weeks. Always feel free to call us out on any bullshit we say or if … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 30 – Less.Online

    Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2024 23:04


    Less.Online gathers rationalist writers (and readers) for a major event in Berkeley May 31 – June 2nd. Eneasz will be there! Ben Pace and Raymond Arnold tell us all about it. Get all the details you could want plus tickets … Continue reading β†’

    211 – The Social Justice Religion with Tracing Woodgrains

    Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2024 104:38


    β€œSocial justice progressivism (SJP) is the first time most peopleβ€”including most Christiansβ€”have encountered a truly vital religion,” argues Tracing Woodgrains. We dive into this. LINKS The Twitter Essay we're discussing Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter Tracing Woodgrains's SubStack Trace's piece on … Continue reading β†’

    210 – Demographic Collapse & Religion with Simone & Malcolm Collins

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2024 102:14


    We speak with Simone and Malcolm from Based Camp and Pronatalist.org. World population is a few decades from collapse if trends continue. Is this bad, and what can be done? LINKS Based Camp YouTubeΒ  and Podcast Pronatalist.org The mentionedΒ where to … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 29 – VibeClipse

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2024 31:07


    Steven and Eneasz regale each other and you with our stories, experiences, and takeaways from VibeClipse. The video Eneasz mentioned with him and especially Jen reacting to totality. πŸ™‚ Also, as hinted in this blast and discussed in the last … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 28 – Blasting Bass

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2024 17:31


    Yassine tells us what's wrong with DJs and reveals their ancient mystical secrets. His post, DJ At Law Watch DJ-crush Tinzo spinning her craft

    209 – The World's Most Wholesome Gangbang, with Lucy Belmont (Fluffer B)

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2024 91:55


    We speak to Lucy Belmont, Fluffer B from Aella's Birthday Gangbang. Guys, this is the most wholesome and fantastic thing we've ever heard, for real. LINKS Aella's post on her birthday gangbang, with many charts and graphs LucyBelmont.com Also Lucy … Continue reading β†’

    Bayes Blast 27 – SubStack Launch and Animorphs Launch

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2024 4:39


    You can now subscribe to us on SubStack. You can hear the Rational!Animorphs fanfic (and Luminosity) at AskWho's channel

    208.ai – Eve Theory of Consciousness v3.0 – By Andrew Cutler

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2024 183:40


    The full audio of the article we discuss. Many thanks to AskWho for creating it! It can also be found at https://askwhocastsai.substack.com/p/eve-theory-of-consciousness-v30-by AskWho can be supported at https://www.patreon.com/AskwhoCastsAI and many many more essays and stories are available there.

    208 – Snakes On A Brain: Eve Theory of Consciousness v3 with Andrew Cutler

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2024 147:30


    We talk with Andrew Cutler about how pre-modern women spread consciousness through our species via a snake cult. This is a follow up to episode 205, which you should listen to first if you haven't yet. LINKS Eve Theory of … Continue reading β†’

    Claim The Bayesian Conspiracy

    In order to claim this podcast we'll send an email to with a verification link. Simply click the link and you will be able to edit tags, request a refresh, and other features to take control of your podcast page!

    Claim Cancel