Podcasts about Village

Scarecrow，scare 是驚嚇，crow就是烏鴉。兩個字合起來其實就是稻草人的意思，只是美國不用稻草製作而是用麥梗或牧草的梗。過去稻草人是為了驅趕鳥類，但到了現在就剩裝飾用了，甚至還舉辦稻草人裝飾比賽。在賓州雄鹿郡的 Peddler's Village就舉辦了超過一百個稻草人的投票比賽活動，還有什麼有趣的事情，敬請就跟著#aja #Zeno 的在地腳步一起來討論吧！ 稻草人比賽的連結網站 https://peddlersvillage.com/news/scarecrow-season-begins-at-peddlers-village/ 親愛的聽眾們，你們的支持是我們繼續製作播客最大的動力，歡迎透過Anchor平台小額贊助我們，請我們喝瓶牛奶好讓我們潤潤嗓子補充營養喔！https://anchor.fm/zeno-podcast/support #Scarecrow #稻草人 #bootsman #boogeyman # Peddler'sVillage #美國 #賓州 #費城#社會文化 #英文學習 #中文學習 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/zeno-podcast/support

Sweden has some tickets for you, Albania may not be our first National Final, Turin Council signs off on the budget, and more, in the latest Insight News podcast. The post Eurovision Insight Podcast: Our Village Is Calling appeared first on ESC Insight - Home of the Unofficial Eurovision Song Contest Podcast.

In which the Grills talk about their experiences and opinions on haunted walks and houses and woods and mazes and such… Here are links to some we have visited recently: The Village | 13-stories (13storieshauntedhouse.com) NETHERWORLD Haunted House in Stone Mountain, Georgia – #1 Haunted House in America! (fearworld.com) https://midwaywickedwoods.com Rey's Zoe Costume: Here's a … Continue reading "Too Many Chainsaws – Episode 210"

This week we talk about what it's like discovering yourself again after a relationship + being more mindful of your mental and emotional well-being. Follow us on Instagram! @blaccbrry @kenlushh @boyznextdoorpod --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

In this episode, Natalie shares channeled messages from goldenrod from a beach in Delaware, at James Farm Ecological Preserve.  We hope you enjoy this plant-Spirit conversation, where Goldenrod invites us into a practice of cultivating and protecting our inner reserves.    Links: Watch this episode on Youtube Sign up for our newsletter, get the Village app, or join the Collective membership at www.earthspeak.love Follow us on Instagram www.instagram.com/earthspeak Follow Natalie on Instagram @natalie.alexandra.ross // www.instagram.com/natalie.alexandra.ross Connect with Natalie and learn more about creating a plant magic talisman natalie@earthspeak.love James Farm Ecological Preserve https://www.facebook.com/JamesFarmPreserve/    ► Leave us a written review on iTunes, and get shouted out on the show! Theme music is “It's Easier” by Scarlet Crow http://www.scarletcrow.org/ and “Meeting Again” by Emily Sprague  https://mlesprg.info/ ► Join the Earth Speak Collective Membership at https://www.earthspeak.love/collective Follow Earth Speak on Instagram and tag us when you share @earthspeak https://www.instagram.com/earthspeak

In this episode, Natalie shares channeled messages from goldenrod from a beach in Delaware, at James Farm Ecological Preserve.  We hope you enjoy this plant-Spirit conversation, where Goldenrod invites us into a practice of cultivating and protecting our inner reserves.    Links: Watch this episode on Youtube Sign up for our newsletter, get the Village app, or join the Collective membership at www.earthspeak.love Follow us on Instagram www.instagram.com/earthspeak Follow Natalie on Instagram @natalie.alexandra.ross // www.instagram.com/natalie.alexandra.ross Connect with Natalie and learn more about creating a plant magic talisman natalie@earthspeak.love James Farm Ecological Preserve https://www.facebook.com/JamesFarmPreserve/    ► Leave us a written review on iTunes, and get shouted out on the show! Theme music is “It's Easier” by Scarlet Crow http://www.scarletcrow.org/ and “Meeting Again” by Emily Sprague  https://mlesprg.info/ ► Join the Earth Speak Collective Membership at https://www.earthspeak.love/collective Follow Earth Speak on Instagram and tag us when you share @earthspeak https://www.instagram.com/earthspeak

It's no secret that there is a global maternal mental health crisis. One of the most challenging aspects of motherhood (maybe in addition to mothering during a global pandemic) is finding time for yourself.  While this podcast focuses a lot on the importance of human connection with others, perhaps the biggest piece of that human connection puzzle is the ability to connect with ourselves. But what happens when that piece gets lost in the shuffle of pick-ups and drop-offs, coordinating play dates, and packing school lunches? On this episode, we talk with one of the founders of Surf Moms Anna Shoemaker about why we should be focusing on creating mom groups centered around mom instead of baby, finding something you love outside your family, and building a village that not only helps raise a child but also supports maternal mental health. "I wish I could speak to myself after having my second kid, and just say, ‘Let it go, stop trying to hold everything together, go ask for help.' And I might even go a step further and say, ‘What do you love?' And go try and do that. ...You're going to connect with somebody inevitably because we're hardwired for it, and you're going to slowly train your brain to normalize that for yourself, to normalize chasing that passion, that thing that you love." --Anna Shoemaker

On today's UNSCRIPTED episode, we are welcoming Haney to her first ever UNSCRIPTED episode! We're also checking in with Ruddy to get the real-real on life with TWO littles!  Podcasts referenced in today's episode: How Preschool Teachers Do It: https://www.facebook.com/howpreschoolteachersdoit/Train Like You Listen: https://trainlikeachampion.blog/train-like-you-listen-ld-podcast/  Kids These Days is a co-production of the KCCTO-KITS Infant Toddler Specialist Network (ITSN) and KCCTO Workforce Development (WFD) programs. The KCCTO-KITS Infant-Toddler Specialist Network is a program of the Kansas Child Care Training Opportunities, Inc. (KCCTO) and the university of Kansas Life Span Institute at Parsons. The Workforce Development Project is a program of KCCTO.  Each program is supported through a grant from the Kansas Department For Children And Families' Child Care And Early Education Services. However, information or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.To learn more about the Infant Toddler Specialist Network, please visit: http://kskits.org/technical-assistance-0.   To learn more about KCCTO and Workforce Development, please visit: https://kccto.org/  Contact us via email at – kidsthesedayspod@gmail.com  Follow and tag us on Instagram & Facebook @kidsthesedayspod & Twitter @ktdpod Cheery Monday by Kevin MacLeodLink: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/3495-cheery-mondayLicense: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Want to know a few practices for building a strong family? Our friend Jefferson Bethke is here for this Say Yes season to let us all in on what steps to take as we each journey toward building a healthy family. Jeff is full of grace and brilliance as he gives fun and insightful ideas for establishing your family around a weekly rhythm and a shared sense of identity. This matters for the people you love, and we are deeply thankful for it. Need to invest in your personal health? Join us for our annual Emotional Health Retreat on November 18-19 in Franklin, TN!Dive deeper with Jeff Bethke by picking up his new book: Take Back Your Family. You can also listen to Jeff's focused podcast series: The Intentional Family.Go to rebekahlyons.com/livefree after purchasing A Surrendered Yes to receive the Let Go, Live Free 8-week Conversation Guide! Join the community as we go through this study together!We are glad to partner with Africa New Life to give the gift of food and hope!Thankful to partner with Samaritan's Purse Operation Christmas Child! Find out how to give this incredible gift around the world.Join AIM's Village today and you can* receive a signed copy of A Surrendered Yes! (*while supplies last)

Joseph met Diana at a SAG-AFTRA workshop and have been friends since. Diana is an actor, voice actor and producer. Known for her recurring roles on "The Young and the Restless" and "Days of Our Lives", she has also done a number of TV Commercials. She began working in Group ADR in 2010, on "Eureka", and has been heard on "Alphas", "Defiance", "Code Black", "Quantico", "Midnight Texas", "Into The Dark" and more. The daughter of an avionics mechanic from Sri Lanka and a Danish mother, Diana's unusual ethnic background has granted her a strong sense of culture. Her love of travel began at a young age and she's been to over 30 countries. www,dianalansleen.com

In this episode, the Retro Movie Geek crew is joined by Josh "The Wolfman" Ligairi (find more from Josh here and here), and they're geeking out over John Carpenter's Vampires (1998) and cold blooded killings Darrell's deep thoughts the motel massacre blue collar vampire killers and much, much more!   Synopsis: In the blood-chilling tradition of Halloween and Village of the Damned comes John Carpenters's unique vision of the ultimate killing machines, Vampires. "Forget everything you've ever heard about vampires", warns Jack Crow, the leader of Team Crow, a relentless group of mercenary vampire slayers. When master vampire Valek decimates Jack's entire team, Crow and the sole team survivor, Montoya set out in pursuit. Breaking all the rules, Crow and Montoya take one of Valek's victims hostage. The beautiful, but unlucky prostitute is their sole psychic link to Valek, and through her senses they will track down the leader of the undead. As Valek nears the climax of his 600-year search for the Berziers Cross, Jack and the new Team Crow do everything humanly possible to prevent him from possessing the only thing that can grant him, and all vampires, the omnipotent power to walk in the daylight. .......................................................................................................................... Special thanks to Midnight Syndicate (find more Midnight Syndicate scares here) for letting us use the tune Winged Fury from the album Vampyre: Symhonies from the Crypt, for Spooky Flix Fest 2021! .......................................................................................................................... ..........................................................................................................................   LISTENER FEEDBACK: Leave us your voicemail feedback at (484) 577-3876. Check out Darrell's other cool podcasts here. Check out Peter's Retro Reviews over at ForgottenFlix.com here. Check out The Forgotten Flix Podcast here. Special thanks to Kevin Spencer for the fantastic show logo! Special thanks to Hayden for the use of his fantastic music for our opening theme this episode! You can check out more from this amazing artist here! Special thanks to Retro Promenade for the use of music from the album Carpenter. Music use permitted under a Creative Commons license. CLICK HERE and get a copy of the album and support these fantastic artists!

TIMELINE00:01:16 Baby Driver00:12:56 Contrarians Corner01:09:08 Jon Bernthal's One Scene01:10:16 Now on Patreon01:16:40 Real Talk01:53:55 The Future & Perennial Plugs- Interested In more Contrarians goodness? Join THE CONTRARIANS SUPPLEMENTS on our Patreon Page! Deleted clips, extended plugs, bonus episodes free from the Tomatometer shackles… It's everything a Contrarians devotee would want!- Contrarians Merch is finally here! Check out our RED BUBBLE MERCH PAGE and buy yourself something nice that's emblazoned with one of our four different designs!- Alex & Julio joined Sam Hurley to discuss The Village over at MOVIE REVIEWS IN 20 Qs and Julio joined Billy Dunham over at WE WATCHED A THING to talk about The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou!- THE FESTIVE YEARS have been letting us use their music for years now and they are amazing. You can check out their work on Spotify, on Facebook or on their very own website.- Hans Rothgiesser, the man behind our logo, can be reached at @mildemonios on Twitter or you can email him at mildemonios@hotmail.com in case you ever need a logo (or comics) produced. And you can listen to him talk about Peruvian politics on his own podcast, NACION COMBI and Peruvian economics on his other podcast, MARGINAL! Aaaaand you can also check out all the stuff he's written on his own website. He has a new book: a fake Peruvian History Textbook called HIZTORIA DEL PERÚ. Ask him about it!Up next, we welcome Ryan & Bartek from the SPIT & POLISH podcast back to the show to help us cover the Sylvester Stallone comedy OSCAR! In the meantime, tell us what you thought of BABY DRIVER! Does it wear out its welcome by the time you get to the tenth heist? What's up with Jon Hamm becoming a slasher baddie? And will this really be the last major release we'll see Christopher Plummer in? E-mail us at wearethecontrarians@gmail.com or tweet at us or facebook us and share your thoughts!

שם התכנית: קליפורניה ותנועת הפולק - ההקלטות של אלן אוקס • The Village Out West

Somnifère vous plonge ce soir dans le quotidien d'un petit village bourgeois où la tradition sexiste et patriarcale persiste. Lorsque Mieke, une jeune habitante, souhaite quitter le village pour se marier avec un étranger, cela fait scandale. Mais si les hommes croient prendre les décisions, ce sont les femmes qui sont réellement au pouvoir. C'est une nouvelle de George Ista intitulée : "Le mariage de Mieke". Soutenez Somnifère · S'abonner à la version premium de Somnifère, c'est contribuer à faire vivre ce podcast et lui permettre d'exister et de rester indépendant. En échange, vous bénéficiez de l'accès à un espace privé pour écouter le podcast sans publicité. Vous pouvez écouter cette version premium depuis votre espace personnel ou directement depuis Apple Podcast, Castbox, Google podcast, etc. Plus d'infos : https://somniferelepodcast.com Bonne nuit perso · Pour un bonne nuit perso dans le podcast du jeudi, partagez Somnifère sur vos réseaux sociaux (story insta, post Facebook, etc) puis envoyez-moi un message sur en me précisant votre prénom et le nom de votre ville, ou si vous êtes abonné(e) à la version premium, envoyez-moi un mail à morphee@somniferelepodcast.com.
 Réseaux sociaux Insta : https://www.instagram.com/somniferelepodcast/ FB : https://www.facebook.com/somniferelepodcast Et si vous aimez ce podcast, merci de le soutenir en vous y abonnant, en le notant ou en laissant un commentaire sur la plateforme sur laquelle vous l'écoutez

Ben Reinhardt (@Ben_Reinhardt), Research Fellow at the Astera Institute and host of Idea Machines Podcast, joins Erik to discuss:- Why we don't have as much science fiction-like technology in the world as we could, and how to turn more of it into reality.- Why venture capital does a poor job of funding new physical technology and why ten year venture cycles are too short for breakthrough technologies. Ben points out that the transistor took 15 years between the kick-off of the project and the first prototype.- The article Ben wrote on how a private ARPA, or “PARPA” could help bring more breakthrough technology into the world.- The unique strength of corporate labs at bringing together academics, engineers, and manufacturing, which gave the world plastics, the transistor, and modern computing.- Ben's idea of the rich tithing 10% of their income to technological research.- How philanthropy would need to change in order to help small researchers experiment on longer-term timescales than they do currently.- The impacts that PARPA would have if it was successful. Read more about the idea here: https://benjaminreinhardt.com/parpaThanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at www.villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.Want to get updates from us? Subscribe to get a peek inside the Village. We'll send you reading recommendations, exclusive event invites, and commentary on the latest happenings in Silicon Valley. www.villageglobal.vc/signup

Wharton management professor Samir Nurmohamed explains what compels whistleblowers like Facebook's Frances Haugen to come forward in an organization.

CBC podcast producer Justin Ling, who helmed the Uncover series, The Village, joins us for his new podcast, The Flamethrowers, which investigates the history of right-wing radio and how it provided a playbook for the rise of Donald Trump.   This segment is guest-hosted by Matt Katz.

Leadership can feel like a lonely journey. What's more, the cultural myth of the “lone ranger” leader is strong, pervasive and can lead to isolation. The truth is every leader needs a community around them in order to point out blind spots and bring out their best. In this conversation with GLN President Tom De Vries, Jo Saxton—author, speaker, podcast host and coach—offers up advice on how to cultivate your “village”, and how to be a helpful part of community for other leaders as well.

A small, Mediterranean village on a weekend morning. --- Artist: Sleep and Study Soundscapes --- Socials & Contact: https://anchor.fm/lady-ottoline https://open.spotify.com/show/7l0uVrCmk2utLhi8eLOyQD https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tales-of-asmr/id1558315483 https://www.instagram.com/theladyottolinewrites https://twitter.com/OttolineLady theladyottolinewrites@gmail.com --- Listen to ASMR & Chill on your favorite podcast directory: Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2RKJerO Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2H4sfMS Google Podcasts: https://bit.ly/2Fkr7lM Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2AECMbY Overcast: https://bit.ly/2QxN6rf Podbean: https://bit.ly/2H4qBe8 Anchor: https://bit.ly/2shxyyd Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/Aoo0 --- Email: Hello@SleepandRelaxASMR.com www.SleepandRelaxASMR.com --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/asmrandchill/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/asmrandchill/support

Episode #27 - A sudden stroke caused Sheri Noecker to move into The Village at University Gates long-term care in Waterloo. While not being able to move, she was inspired by her friends and the team at the village to build an exercise plan and work with the Program for Active Living team in her determination to move again as she use to.  Hear this inspiring and motivational story as Sheri sits on the green bench with hosts Erin Davis and Lloyd Hetherington. Sheri shares about her life when she experienced a stroke at the age of 51, the wake-up call that motivated her to get better. Although she is unable to remember all the details of the time she shares as others have told her. Today, she is committed to doing exercise every morning.  Inspired by her nephew who experienced a tragic accident at the age of 18 and worked to be able to walk again. "You say you are going to be a motivational speaker, but I want to correct you.  You are a motivational speaker now." -Lloyd Hetherington to Sheri Noecker Sharing supports  she receives from participating in Chair Exercises with Caroline Jordon & Paul Eugene on YouTube The goal of the Michael T. Sharratt Program for Active Living (PAL) is to improve our residents' life quality and maximize independence through individualized exercise programming and a more active lifestyle. Learn more.  Sheri is one of many who receives the support from Kinesiologists, exercise therapists, physiotherapists and more. "The Program for Active Living team has helped me in so many different ways.  Coming to the Village as a full hoyer lift and after two years, I am able to stand without supports." -Sheri Noecker "I did not really care about myself before. Learning what happened to me, I am now fighting for everything I am doing. I am not a person that gives up on anything, and not giving up on myself either." -Sheri Noecker One day, when Sheri is recovered, she plans to go out to be a motivational speaker and supporter.  She would also like to become a PSW and return back to University Gates to work with the team.  Focusing her life on helping others. A stroke is a medical emergency. Learn more from Heart & Stroke Canada. F - Face, is it drooping? A - Arms, can you raise both? S - Speech, is it slurred or jumbled? T - Time, to call 9-1-1 right away? "Blood, sweat and respect.  First two you give, last one you earn." - Dwayne Johnson Subscribe, rate, and review our podcast on any network and share your thoughts on social media using the #ElderWisdom tag to help others find us. ----more---- The Green Bench is a symbol of elder wisdom. Physically or virtually, the bench invites us all to sit alongside a senior, share a conversation, or give and offer advice. It challenges the stigma seniors face; the ageism still so prevalent in society. It reminds us of the wealth of wisdom our elders offer and in doing so, helps restore them to a place of reverence. "The greatest untapped resource in Canada, if not the world, is the collective wisdom of our elders." -Ron Schlegel This podcast is brought to you by Schlegel Villages, retirement & long-term care homes in Ontario, Canada. #ElderWisdom | Stories from the Green Bench is produced by Memory Tree Productions  Learn more about our host, Erin Davis, at erindavis.com  Learn more about co-host, Lloyd Hetherington  Learn more about #ElderWisdom at elderwisdom.ca

**SaViNgS aLeRt** For a limited time, code: GROWCAST is now LIVE at www.sustainablevillage.com for 10% off your Blu Mat auto-watering system and much more! Big thank you Michael for our own GROWCAST savings code. Back by popular demand our good friend Michael from www.sustainablevillage.com returns to the show! Today Michael is here to give us a rundown of specific tips and tricks using the blu mat system, plus much, much more. Michael updates us on all the projects he's been involved in since we last spoke, including some large scale agricultural operations both inside and outside of cannabis. He discusses the irrigation work that he's finishing up in Michigan at a very large scale cannabis farm, and talks a little bit about some of the equipment that goes into that scale of an operation. Michael then answers Jordan's specific questions when it comes to using the Blu Mat autowatering system, including which inputs can and can't be used, proper cleaning techniques, aeration questions, and more. Don't forget code growcast is also live again at www.sustainablevillage.com for a whopping 10% off! ---WE LOVE AC INFINITY! Industry ventilation leaders, now with tents, pots, scissors and more! www.acinfinity.com use promo code growcast15 for 15% off the BEST grow fans in the game!--- ---Proud partners of Rimrock Analytical, fast and easy sex testing! Use code growcast for free shipping on your tests, easy and fast collection process, cull your male seedlings! Visit www.rimrockanalytical.com and use code growcast for free shipping!!!--- ---Proud partners of Plant Revolution! www.plantrevolution.com try their new King Crab beneficial bacteria today! Increase nutrient uptake, photosynthesis, soil breakdown, and more! This product will be a game changer for you in ANY cultivation setup!---

**SaViNgS aLeRt** For a limited time, code: GROWCAST is now LIVE at www.sustainablevillage.com for 10% off your Blu Mat auto-watering system and much more! Big thank you Michael for our own GROWCAST savings code. Back by popular demand our good friend Michael from www.sustainablevillage.com returns to the show! Today Michael is here to give us a rundown of specific tips and tricks using the blu mat system, plus much, much more. Michael updates us on all the projects he's been involved in since we last spoke, including some large scale agricultural operations both inside and outside of cannabis. He discusses the irrigation work that he's finishing up in Michigan at a very large scale cannabis farm, and talks a little bit about some of the equipment that goes into that scale of an operation. Michael then answers Jordan's specific questions when it comes to using the Blu Mat autowatering system, including which inputs can and can't be used, proper cleaning techniques, aeration questions, and more. Don't forget code growcast is also live again at www.sustainablevillage.com for a whopping 10% off! ---WE LOVE AC INFINITY! Industry ventilation leaders, now with tents, pots, scissors and more! www.acinfinity.com use promo code growcast15 for 15% off the BEST grow fans in the game!--- ---Proud partners of Rimrock Analytical, fast and easy sex testing! Use code growcast for free shipping on your tests, easy and fast collection process, cull your male seedlings! Visit www.rimrockanalytical.com and use code growcast for free shipping!!!--- ---Proud partners of Plant Revolution! www.plantrevolution.com try their new King Crab beneficial bacteria today! Increase nutrient uptake, photosynthesis, soil breakdown, and more! This product will be a game changer for you in ANY cultivation setup!---

Sometimes I give 'too much' of my love away

Today's guest is a good friend of mine for the last five or six years, Joe Desimone. Joe Desimone is a villager. He's currently an MTT Pro, but back when I met him in my old twitch street days he was battling in the cash game arena. He's been a successful professional poker player for the last 10 years or so. Greatest Village is very lucky to have somebody as skillful as Joe around to answer MTT questions where, you know, the village is not exactly full of MTT specialists, right? We're cash game pros typically so, Joe is a major, major asset to the Village. And in my conversation today with Joe Desimone he's going to drop a Greatness Bomb on an underbluffed spot when you're battling against fish, he's going to dive deep into his poker origin story, and him and I are also going to reminisce about the good old days. So now, without any further ado, I bring it to you a long time a professional poker player and good friend, the one and only Joe desimone.To learn more about the Free Nuffle promotion, visit: https://chasingpokergreatness.com/free-nuffle-promotionNew CPG Cash Game Courses!Preflop Bootcamp: https://bit.ly/Preflop-BootcampFish in a Barrel: http://bit.ly/fish-in-a-barrelNeutralize Flop Leads: https://bit.ly/2OkN8Yt

微信公众号：「365读书」（dus365)，有不定期赠书福利；微博：365读书v。主播：潮羽&云公子，365天每天更新一期。 文字版已在微信公众号【365读书】发布 。QQ：587586744 背景音乐：1.スタジオネネム - Village_1 ~ 憩；2.Richard Schrieber - The Sun Will Rise；3.Udi Harpaz,Ron Klein - THE SECOND COMING；4.Epic Score - Victorious Return；5.Silver Screen - Ascension；6.神前暁 - 「ありがとうございます。助かりました」。

Welcome to Triad of the Force's Visions Mondays! Join Gus, Moe, & Nani on their limited series, covering all things Visions. On today's Visions Monday, the gang reviews and analyzes the fourth episode of Visions: The Village Bride. • • • Triad of the Force is a channel featuring Nani, Gus, and Moe, three lifelong Puerto Rican friends who after years of discussing the media they love, have finally come together and created their show. Triad of the Force focuses their discussions on Star Wars, but their love for media spans everything from sci-fi, fantasy, CBMs, and beyond. From films to TV, from books to comic books, Triad of the Force looks at all media critically, from a Latine/x perspective. Joins us! Follow Triad Of The Force at: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TriadOfTheForce Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/triadoftheforce/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/TriadoftheForce/ If you like us, get some merch and help the channel: TeePublic: https://www.teepublic.com/user/triad-of-the-force

Grace and Lizzie share all about their favorite Fall traditions, and Lizzie reveals that she is part of The Village Fandom. Here's a link to pre-save the upcoming Semler EP, Late Bloomer!Here is how to make Lizzie's crockpot apple cider:-quarter 5-10 apples (depending on the size of your crockpot) and cut out the seeds--a mix of green, red, pink, and yellow is best-add them to the crockpot and fill the remaining space with water-add in 3-5 cinnamon sticks and a small handful of whole cloves and whole allspice-cook on low for 8-10 hours-about halfway through the cooking time, roughly mash up the soft apples in the crockpot to release more flavor-strain through a mesh strainer into a jar or large container-store in the fridge and enjoy! 

Amy Kazin of EPCHS and Glenn Pniewski of the Village of Evergreen Park both stop by this episode with lots of events to announce for the week of Halloween. Get ready for murder mystery live theater where the ending changes every performance. Prepare yourself for parades and trick-or-treating events. Get dressed up at FantaSciFest! There is so much to do, and you don't want to miss a thing! Brought to you by The First National Bank of Evergreen Park!  Find the account that is right for you AND get your FREE EP Podcast Car Magnet there today! Get the latest news and information concerning everything going on in and around Evergreen Park, and stay connected to your neighbors! New On-Demand Podcasts release on Mondays, with a weekend update on Fridays. Every week Evergreen Park residents join their neighbors Chris Lanuti and Hannah Beth at a 9-foot homemade basement bar. Listen, interact & get all of your free subscription options at theEPpodcast.com​!

It's hard to believe that we've never talked about this one, but here it is! Join us as we stumble blindly through The Village!

*Please note, Zack had some audio issues during first half of the stream, they will be fixed going forward* We join Auxiliary Incorporated as they leave the death house and descend into the valley of Barovia. Nestled in the shadow of Castel Ravenloft, our heroes explore the village Soundscapes used were created by Sword Coast Soundscapes, please check his youtube channel out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EULoybB2Nsw

Paddy Davitt speaks exclusively to former Newcastle United, West Brom, and Charlton striker Andy Hunt about his long-standing connections to Norfolk and how he ended up playing in the Premier League.  The former Norwich City trialist has now been living in Belize for the past 20 years and has an academy filled with young talent that he is bringing to the attention of clubs across Europe and the US.

 This week Pastor Cody walks us through the topic of Angerhttps://archive.org/download/proverbs-week-7-anger/Proverbs%20Week%207%20Anger.mp3

Did Kate Beckinsale steal one of Jennifer Aniston's roles? Plus, Miss Piggy and Yvette Nicole Brown dish with Andrew Freund about their spooky new film 'Muppets Haunted Mansion,' and find out why Charlize Theron needs a "village of strong black women" on today's Dish Nation! 

Tom returns for the the 4th installment of "Star Wars: Vision" we are talking episode 4 "The Village Bride" an episode filled with wonder and possibility!! So you know what that mean, strap on your buckets, LETS GO!Please follow the show at:Mando_Vision on Twitter and Instagram. Email: MandoVisionTom@gmail.comPlease, like, subscribe and share the show with your friends on all of your favorite podcast platforms and if you can take the time to write a 5-Star review, it will be read on the show! Thank for all the support, please stay safe and take care of each other. Music by Dirty Sweet and used with permission.All audio clips from any “Star Wars” material is copyright of Disney Enterprises Inc. and is only used for the sole purpose of promotion of Disney property and to provide context for talking points. Mando Vision is copyright Thomas Pritchard 2021.★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

We FOLLOW OUR HEART (2020) to Mountain View, Arkansas and: It's good to not be entertained ...  THEME: "Fuck You If You Don't Like Christmas," from Crudbump, by Drew Fairweather PART ONE  We're back! We're back! ... Workin' pieless before vacation ... Is this a mystery? ... Malick-inflected TV Amish ... Enough that Pie Would Remark On It ... Cast Rundown ... The Expositional Challenge ... Staggering failure, lushly plotless ... Trip Report: Mountain View, Arkansas ... The Amish will come, Ray ...  Break: Original music by Chris Collingwood PART TWO This good movie isn't good ... Somber, but made with care ... Not "star-driven" ... Logical Amish Brigadoon ... Identifiably a movie, yet still not a movie ... Otherizing the Amish ... Hallmark calling its own bluff ... Mutual belief-system abandonment ... That's not Pennsylvania Break: Original music by Chris Collingwood PART THREE Spot the Angel: No ... Jeb's Amish dental obsession ... Eat Your Heart Out: Fried chicken, potato dumplings, (overcooked) green beans, wasted portions, spicy shakshuka, full English breakfast, brittle dry bacon, scrambled nubs, fondness for pies ... Serious pie is funny ... Platooning pie ... Forbidden seasonings ... The Hallmark Expanded Universe: Universal TV producer boyfriend; fleeing Garbage Store suspect; location shoots from meteorologists from Episode 93 ... No title effort ... Overdetermined: Talking like Libertarian Skeletor; savage sister burns in a cooking scene; a relentless volte-facing ending ... Choosing a world without family ... Break: Original music by Chris Collingwood PART FOUR Crossover: Witness (obviously), The Village, (Karen Gillian and Hot B*n Shapiro), CSI: Amish Grace ... The Hallmark Bechdel Test: Yes! ... The Hallmark Voight-Kampff Test: Jack and Evelyn's Amish mockery vs. Katrina's autobiographical Amish ignorance ... Great Moments in Moppetry: 1, great workrate, great execution ... Who's the Real Villain: Gossip vs. Incuriosity ... Title/Sequel: Generically inoffensive and thematic, "Follow That Car" and Midnight Express ...  Break: Original music by Chris Collingwood PART FIVE Rating: 3 ... Good, but not entertaining ... We can do more "real" movies like this ... The Leftovers: Your soul journey will commence ... The Bone Collector ... Dallas-Fort Worth Buckingham ... Random name generator titles ... Antonio Banderas gif ... Sandra L. Martin and Mountain View, Arkansas ... Married stars ... Unverified on Twitter ... Englishlifting the Pootie ... Insane bird foley ... I read your book! ... Slant rhyme ... Hurricanes ... Merry Christmas! All other music by Chris Collingwood of Look Park and Fountains of Wayne, except: "Orchestral Sports Theme" by Chris Collingwood and Rick Murnane and "O.T.P. (One Term President)" by Wolverines.

Why did the people of Joga think of leaving their village? How did Dr.Mithra help them stay there? What was his Invention? Whom did he seek an appointment? Who spied on Dr.Mithra's activities? What was their plan? ஜோகா கிராம மக்கள் ஏன் தங்கள் ஊரை விட்டு போக நினைத்தார்கள்? அவர்கள் அங்கேயே இருக்க டாக்டர் மித்ரா எவ்வாறு உதவினார்? அவருடைய கண்டுபிடிப்பு என்ன? அவர் யாரை சந்திக்க நேரம் கேட்டார்? மித்ராவின் நடவடிக்கைகளை யார் உளவு பார்த்தது? அவர்களின் திட்டம் என்ன?Youtube Story Link: https://youtu.be/b1FKlAfE8uw You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the new and improved IVM Podcast App on Android: https://ivm.today/androidor iOS: https://ivm.today/iosYou can check out our website at http://www.ivmpodcasts.com

COVID vaccines prevented 1,500 new infections among Oregon seniors, 200 deaths. Gypsy Jokers biker gang racketeering, murder trial declared a mistrial after judge contracts COVID. NBA leaders rank Lillard league's second best point guard, one of top closers See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

126: Finding the Resources You Need as a Nonprofit Leader (Stephanie Minor)SUMMARYThe best nonprofit leaders embrace the concept of life-long learning because they know they must stay on top of the issues that face their organization and the sector in which it operates.  Managing issues of fundraising and philanthropy, human resources, mental health, diversity, equity & inclusion, strategic planning, finance, human resources and countless other topics can easily become overwhelming for a nonprofit leader. Fortunately, there are resources available to help you, and in episode #126 of the Path Podcast, Stephanie Minor offers a gold mine of ideas and specific advice about where to find them. Stephanie works with hundreds of nonprofit leaders through her NPO Centric organization, and has taken the time to understand the challenges you are likely facing right now, and has proactively developed resources to help.ABOUT STEPHANIEStephanie Minor is a veteran fundraising professional, nonprofit executive, and strategic development coach whose proven fundraising strategies have won big grants and gifts for important and impactful nonprofit causes. She joined NPO Centric as its Director in 2019, where she advances the work of nonprofits through capacity building and technical assistance. Stephanie started her professional career as a communicator and social media strategist after earning a Bachelor of Arts degree in English from Cal State San Bernardino. Through her own firm, Premiere Designs, LLC, she planned, developed, and executed successful integrated social media and website content strategies for a variety of clients, including organizations in the nonprofit sector. In 2015, she was offered an opportunity to serve on the staff of Martha's Village & Kitchen, one of the largest providers of homeless services in the Coachella Valley and Riverside County. As the director of development, she launched a successful $5 million capital campaign, and became the executive vice president of the organization. She also won the “Best Pitch” award through the RAP Foundation's 2018 Desert Fast Pitch competition for nonprofits. Through her powerful 3-minute pitch about the plight of homeless children in California, she was awarded a donation of $20,000 toward the creation of a space in the residential unit of Martha's Village & Kitchen exclusively for homeless children. EPISODE TOPICS & RESOURCES Erik Hanberg's book The Little Book of BoardsLearn more about NPO Centric and how it can help your nonprofit leadershipReady for a Mastermind?  Apply Today!

In this week's episode of Mid-Week Moment with The Crenshaw's we ask the question of, who is in your marriage circle? There are several key archetypes that every couple should have around them. There is an old saying, it takes a village to raise a child and the same can be said for having an effective marriage. Let's discuss and Family… Welcome to Our Journey!!

Welcome to Dev Game Club, where this week we continue our series on BioShock. We talk a lot about the surprise of the scene of Ryan, and some mechanical and production aspects we haven't had a chance to talk about yet. Dev Game Club looks at classic video games and plays through them over several episodes, providing commentary. Sections played: Up to Apollo Square! Issues covered: where the game should (?) have ended, playing golf with your dad, finding a way to incorporate a power station, Ryan the abstract monster vs Ryan the concrete monster, changing the lens you view Ryan through, rationalizing one's choices, the red yarn board, forcing the player to see a scene the way they want you to, egocentric Ryan and seeing oneself as a tragic hero, every villain as the hero of his own story, mythological framing, other ways you could tackle player agency here, "The Cake Is A Lie," the Irish charmer becoming the Irish thug, using Atlas to puff out Ryan as a monster, the many many layers of references and archetypes, all that matters to me is me and all that matters to you is you, killing people who are much like you, differentiating the Little Sisters in the Tenenbaum section, the mind-control plasmid, walking a tightrope with difficulty and challenge, mixing up your plasmids, the simplicity of upgrades, some numbers change or more things can be impacted, not feeling the power of tonics and plasmids, lack of builds, the limited number of axes across which powers and weapons apply, compressing the depth, modularity in world construction, solid art direction, regularity in the built world, kit-bashing, a couple of kind reviews, dealing with issues of preservation, what gets lost, wanting leaders to do more, having let's plays for reference. Games, people, and influences mentioned or discussed: System Shock 2, Snowpiercer, Portal, Walt Disney, Wide World of Disney, PIXAR, Studio Ghibli, William Hearst, Citizen Kane, Modern Warfare 2, The Last of Us 2, Death Stranding, Hideo Kojima, Arkham City/Arkham Knight, Robert De Niro, The Irishman, Ken Levine, Village of the Damned, Metroid, Ratchet & Clank, Unreal, Gears of War, Skyrim, Fallout (series), Jarkko S., Baldur's Gate, Diablo, Final Fantasy VI, Metal Gear Solid, Chris_3646363, Ocarina of Time, mysterydip, Phil Spencer, Vectrex, Double Fine, Square Enix, The Matrix (series/Online), The Wachowskis, Meridian 59, Andrew and Chris Kirmse, Control, The Lost Room, Kirk Hamilton, Aaron Evers, Mark Garcia. Links: Twitter thread on preservation Next time: Finish the game! Twitch: brettdouville or timlongojr, instagram:timlongojr, Twitter: @timlongojr and @devgameclub DevGameClub@gmail.com

Nous sommes en 1896. Un village dit africain est installé au cœur de Genève. Les organisateurs de cet effroyable spectacle l'avait baptisé alors le "Village nègre". Une reconstitution grotesque pour des visiteurs en mal d'exotisme. Pour parler des représentations de l'Afrique au temps des colonies, nous retrouvons dans cet épisode l'historien Patrick Minder, auteur de "La Suisse coloniale", paru aux éditions Peter Lang. Photo: détail d'une carte postale du Village noir, à l'Exposition nationale suisse de 1896, à Genève.(© Chevalley)

Any foodies out there? We are grateful for this conversation with the brave and beautiful Danielle Walker about her journey towards health, and you will be too. We get to discuss how our overall well-being is directly impacted by what we put into our bodies and it is a reflective of our priorities. We also don't have to sacrifice good taste for healthy nutrition! Through the ups and downs of her own story and struggle, Danielle encourages us and reminds us that we all can choose to take steps away from pain towards healing.  Joins us at the Emotional Health Retreat in Franklin, TN, on November 18-19. Find more information here!Go to rebekahlyons.com/livefree after purchasing A Surrendered Yes to receive our Let Go, Live Free 8-week Conversation Guide! Join the community as we go through this study together!For more from Danielle, check out her newest book Food Saved Me: My Journey of Finding Health and Hope Through the Power of Food. You can also check out her blog for recipes and tips: Against All Grain.Thankful for our friends at Samaritan Ministries!Join AIM's Village today and you can* receive a signed copy of A Surrendered Yes! (*while supplies last)

It's Halloween Month on IHIBILI, and we're talking about M. Night Shyamalan's The Village! We interrogate the Elder's plan, complain about the "Shed That Must Never Be Looked Inside Of Because Of The Secrets In It", and Jocelyn debuts a fun game you can play with your friends. This episode brought to you in part by Rothy's. Rothy's is the everyday flat for life on the go. It will blow your mind that they're made from recycled plastic water bottles, because they're the softest shoe you'll put on your feet. A major added bonus? They're machine washable. We love our Rothy's and know you will too! Visit Rothys.com/Hateit today for $20 off your first purchase. This episode brought to you in part by Ritual. When Ritual set out to develop the vitamin essential for women, they wanted something simple, effective, and backed by real science. Ritual challenged some of the top scientists to dream up the perfect daily vitamin for women. The result is everything a vitamin should be. Right now Ritual is offering our listeners 10% off during your first three months! Visit www.ritual.com/HATEIT to start your ritual today. This episode brought to you by Betterhelp. Betterhelp offers professional counseling securely online. Visit betterhelp.com/HATELOVE and join the over 500,000 people taking charge of their mental health with the help of an experienced professional. This podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp and I Hate It But I Love It listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com/HATELOVE. Brought to you in part by Virtual Game Night. Spice up your calls with Virtual Game Nights. Live games for your happy hour, conferences, birthday parties, or whoever else you might be on a video conference with. If you want to turn your next virtual gathering into a Virtual Game Night, visit www.virtualgamenight.live/hatelove and use promo code HATELOVE100 to receive a $100 credit toward the price of any game night package. Edited by Andrew Ivimey and produced for the From Superheroes network. Visit www.FromSuperheroes.com for more podcasts, YouTube series, web comics, and more. IHIBILI Logo by Cubbyhole Studio www.cubbyhole.studio

Bill Schnee is an internationally renowned producer, engineer, and mix master. He has received over 125 gold and platinum records and more than 50 Top 20 singles that run the gamut from Barbra Streisand to The Jacksons, Rod Stewart to Steely Dan, and Whitney Houston to Dire Straits. This is my conversation with Bill about his journey and his art. Check out Bill's new book: Chairman at the Board: Recording the soundtrack of a Generation

Leigh Marie Braswell (@LM_Braswell) of Founders Fund and Erik Bernhardsson (@bernhardsson), who built the music recommendation system at Spotify, join Erik to discuss:- How data flows through a company and the business decisions that can be made based on data.- The waves of change in the data tooling landscape over the last decade and why we're only a quarter of the way to easy-to-use tools.- Why there are so many data roles and how the commercialization of open source projects drives fragmentation and specialization in the industry.- The exciting opportunities and potential pain points to build around in data tooling, including workflow scheduling, LTV predictions, and collaboration.- Why people building in the space shouldn't index to existing roles, structures, and platforms, since those platforms may not be around in a few years.- Why AI and ML are just one tool in the data toolbox and the fact that there is more room to build around other, boring data science tasks.Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at www.villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.Want to get updates from us? Subscribe to get a peek inside the Village. We'll send you reading recommendations, exclusive event invites, and commentary on the latest happenings in Silicon Valley. www.villageglobal.vc/signup

Suite de cette série d'entretiens autour de la personnalité du Docteur Fred Blanchod et des représentations de l'Afrique en Suisse au temps des colonies. Fred Blanchod a contribué à donner une image fantasmée du continent africain et de ses habitants. Un discours largement répandu et très révélateur d'une époque. Patrick Minder, l'invité du jour est historien et auteur de l'ouvrage "La Suisse coloniale - Les représentations de l'Afrique et des Africains en Suisse au temps des colonies (1880-1939)". Photo: détail d'une carte postale du Village noir, à l'Exposition nationale suisse de 1896, à Genève. (© Chevalley)

For Topic Tuesday, the guys talk with Jack McCauley, American inventor and educator at the Jacobs Institute for Design Innovation at UC Berkeley. Actually, he's a car guy who has designed for Guitar Hero, Forza Motorsports, Gran Turismo 2, and Oculus VR. They discuss his various car builds over the years, acknowledge the importance of sound, talk about the future of EVs, and offer advice to listeners considering an electric vehicle… Seasons 1-8 are available on Amazon Prime and Vimeo worldwide, and Season 9 coming soon! Please rate and review us on iTunes, and the TV show on IMDB and Amazon. Write to us with your Car Debates, Car Conclusions, and Topic Tuesdays at everydaydrivertv@gmail.com or everydaydriver.com. Share the podcast with your car enthusiast friends!

EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!

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