Podcast appearances and mentions of Scott Alexander

In this episode, Niklas Anzinger sits down with Stephen Martin, U.S. Lead at Infinita and Operations Lead of the Montana Experimental Treatment Review Board (ETRB), to explore what could become a new model for biotech development and patient access in the United States.Montana SB 535, is a new framework allowing eligible post-Phase 1 experimental treatments to reach patients under regulated oversight with special clinic licenses and an expert review board. Stephen explains why traditional Right-to-Try and expanded access programs have struggled to scale, and how Montana could change the economics by allowing biotechs to generate real-world evidence, treat patients, and create revenue earlier in the development process.They discuss how the pathway works in practice, who qualifies, opportunities for biotech companies and physicians, the relationship between state and federal regulation, the FDA's role, and whether Montana could ultimately provide a blueprint for accelerating drug development across the United States.More on this topic:* Scott Alexander on the Aduhelm Approval* Jared Rhoads on X This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.infinitacitytimes.com

One of magic's most creative minds, Dan Harlan, joins us this week. No doubt many of you have his “Card Toon” card trick or have watched him on Penguin Live videos or perhaps on the Tarbell Course of Magic on video. Maybe you once subscribed to The Minotaur which he co-published with Marv Leventhal. His life and career hasn't all been roses and indeed had many bumps along the way. Currently he hosts MagiCon - The Mystic Tower convention in Raleigh, North Carolina plus he continues to create and perform. View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize View fullsize Dan Harlan is quite candid about his successes and shortcomings as he openly shares many stories in this week's episode. We learn that Dan doesn't like card tricks and he tells us why. He also reveals a long time secret that Majoke was co-authored by him and Scott Alexander. He talks about the time it took to create and film “Every Trick in the Book” of Tarbell. Dan also tells us about his years with Penguin and other creative projects that hold his attention. Cosmic Thinker Scott Wells with Dan Harlan Download Download this podcast in an MP3 file by Clicking Here and then right click to save the file. You can also subscribe to the RSS feed by Clicking Here. You can download or listen to the podcast through Pandora and SiriusXM (formerly Stitcher) by Clicking Here or through FeedPress by Clicking Here or through Tunein.com by Clicking Here or through iHeart Radio by Clicking Here. If you have a Spotify account, then you can also hear us through that app, too. You can also listen through your Amazon Alexa and Google Home devices. Remember, you can download it through the iTunes store, too. See the preview page by Clicking Here.

In 2017, Matthew Walker's Why We Sleep became a huge bestseller. It said, among other things, that we are living through an epidemic of sleeplessness, that the less we sleep the sooner we die, and that sleeping less than six hours a night doubles your risk of cancer.But are its claims as robust as you might hope? Well, you've listened to this podcast before, so what do you think?This podcast is sponsored by Works in Progress magazine. Find endless fascinating pieces on human progress at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* Matthew Walker's TED Talk (”Sleep is your superpower”)* Bill Gates's glowing GatesNotes review of Why We Sleep* Alexey Guzey's 130-hour fact-check of the book's first chapter — the source for most of this episode* His appendix of reader emails on the anxiety the book caused* On “the shorter your sleep, the shorter your life span” — the two mortality meta-analyses Guzey cites: Cappuccio et al. 2010 and the 2016 dose-response one (both U-shaped, optimum ~7 hours)* On “more than doubling your risk of cancer” — Zhao et al.'s 2018 review in BMC Cancer (65 studies, ~1.55m participants, 86,201 cancers; central OR never above ~1.1)* On whether the West is sleeping less — the review with the table of nationally representative surveys (the table itself)* On the Alzheimer's claim — the paper suggesting reverse causation (early dementia symptoms include sleeplessness)* The alleged data manipulation:* Yngve Høiseth's misconduct complaint to UC Berkeley (the deleted graph bar as “falsification”)* Andrew Gelman on “institutional failure”* Scott Alexander's “If It's Worth Your Time to Lie, It's Worth My Time to Correct It”* The cheese wrap reel* What we actually know — the 2024 UK Biobank accelerometer study (~60,000 people; sleep regularity more predictive than duration)* Walker's 2020 Carl Sagan Prize for Science Popularization — awarded after Guzey's critiqueCreditsThe Science Fictions podcast is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

Screenwriting Legends SCOTT ALEXANDER and LARRY KARASZEWSKI discuss their origin stories of being film nerds, drive-in movies, how looking on the back of Variety was glorious when they were kids, how Shakey's Pizza's silent movies influenced them, meeting the first hour at school and deciding to go to the Nuart Theater in Los Angeles, why they program screenings including The Wrong Guy, what makes a good story from real life, why offbeat losers make better subjects than heroes, how directors like Tim Burton are loyal to the script and love stories of art and outsiders, why awards are fun but stupid, their process of deciding on ideas in a shockingly random way, sinking time into ideas that go nowhere, the amazing Marx Brothers movie that can't seem to get made, how they can't shake a movie once they love it, how producers are just as stupid as they are, whether everyone has a movie in their lives and why someone doesn't make a bio movie about them, and how pickleball can save your life! Bio:SCOTT ALEXANDER and LARRY KARASZEWSKI met when they were freshman roommates at USC's School of Cinema. On a whim, they wrote a screenplay during their senior year, which sold a week after graduation. They are best known for writing very unusual biopics with larger-than-life characters. They wrote the highly-acclaimed ED WOOD, for which they were nominated for Best Screenplay by the Writers Guild. They followed this with THE PEOPLE VS. LARRY FLYNT, for which they won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, as well as a special Writers Guild award for civil rights and liberties. They scripted the extremely postmodern MAN ON THE MOON, the life story of Andy Kaufman. They wrote BIG EYES, the strange-but-true story of Margaret and Walter Keane, for which they received an Indie Spirit Best Screenplay nomination. For their first television project, they created the hit miniseries AMERICAN CRIME STORY: THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON, for which they won the Emmy, Golden Globe, PGA and WGA Award for Best Limited Series. Their most recent film, DOLEMITE IS MY NAME, is the celebrated tale of Rudy Ray Moore. Other than biopics, Alexander and Karaszewski are quite eclectic. They wrote the hit Stephen King adaptation 1408. They produced the Bob Crane biopic AUTO FOCUS, and they wrote and directed the comedy SCREWED. They have also written numerous family films, including PROBLEM CHILD, PROBLEM CHILD 2, AGENT CODY BANKS, and GOOSEBUMPS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Back in 2013, Scott Alexander wrote in Extreme mnemonics: JS-154 is one of five metabolic products of netamine; however, the enzyme that produces it is unknown. It is manufactured in cells in the far rostral region of of the cerebrum, but after binding with a leukocynoid it takes a role in maintaining the blood-brain barrier – in particular guiding the movements of lipid molecules. I find I can read paragraphs like this five or six times, write them on flashcards, enter them into Anki, and my brain still refuses to understand or remember them after weeks of trying. On the other hand, my brain easily remembers vastly more complicated structures when they're loaded with human-accessible meaning. For example, just by casually reading the Game of Thrones series, I know an extremely intricate web of genealogies, alliances, locations, journeys, battlesites, et cetera. Byte for byte, an average Game of Thrones reader/viewer probably has as much Game of Thrones information as a neuroscience Ph.D has molecular biology information, but getting the neuroscience info is still a thousand times harder. […] This makes me wonder if it would be possible to produce a story as enjoyable as Game of Thrones which was [...] ---Outline:(01:47) What molecules should we map to the characters?[... 8 more sections]--- First published: May 28th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BJ7AqXeigNKXLqZyx/mnemonic-portraits-for-19-023-human-genes --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it's everyone's problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy cows make their misery expensive (but their calves can't) by Elizabeth Being John Rawls by Scott Alexander – audio of Being John Rawls WestWorld Should Anyone Be Vegan by Henry Stanley Does your AI perform badly because you — you, specifically — are a bad person by Natalie Cargill FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets Plzdontkillus The Mind Killer Ep 69 NFT Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:00:42 – Feedback 00:15:14 – Eating Delicious Animals 01:38:09 – Westworld & Violent Video Games 01:56:35 – Guild of the Rose 01:57:16 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

Jim talks with Liv Boeree—science communicator, former professional poker player, and host of the Win-Win Podcast—about consciousness, egregores, multipolar traps, and the ethics of factory farming. They discuss the nature of personal identity across sleep, the teleportation machine thought experiment, consciousness as a self-aware story-threading entity, the "attention as cursor of consciousness" framing, Jim's memory-competition theory of attention, Gerald Edelman and Daniel Dennett as proponents of competitive models, the Telepathy Tapes podcast and nonverbal autistic children, Donald Hoffman's view that consciousness is foundational, panpsychism and the "radio tuner" model, Liv's poker premonition story and a £1,700,000 tournament win, two flavors of consciousness and psychedelics as a way of dialing into different frequencies, poker as spanning pure luck to pure skill, the data revolution in poker and the rise of game-theory robots, poker as an egregore and the idea that "the game is playing me," probability at micro vs. macro scales, egregores defined as beings in meme space, Moloch as the personification of multipolar traps, Instagram face filters as a micro Moloch example, the Moloch mechanism of individually rational but collectively destructive action, Scott Alexander's "Meditations on Moloch," the breakfast cereal Moloch as a case study, the three interlocked layers of the AI multipolar trap, Marc Andreessen's techno-accelerationism and its blind spots, introducing "Norma" as the second negative attractor state representing centralization and authoritarianism, Moloch and Norma feeding into each other, psychopaths as first movers in Molochian races, the obligate psychopath concept, Elinor Ostrom's work on managing the commons, zero-knowledge proofs as a win-win third path, Descartes' philosophical origin of Western indifference to animal suffering, expanding the moral circle, the conditions of factory-farmed pigs and the economics of gestation crates, the health and environmental consequences of factory farming, cultivated meat as the win-win solution, and much more. Episode Transcript The Win-Win Podcast, with Liv Boeree "Meditations on Moloch," by Scott Alexander Currents 090 with BJ Campbell and Patrick Ryan "AI 2027," by Daniel Kokotajlo et al. Governing the Commons, by Elinor Ostrom Liv Boeree is one of the UK's most successful professional poker players, winning multiple titles during her professional career, including a European Poker Tour Championship and World Series of Poker bracelet. Originally trained in astrophysics, she has hosted various popular science TV shows, and now works as an artist and researcher specializing in the intersection of game theory, technology and risk. She is a co-founder of Raising for Effective Giving (REG), an advisory organization that fundraises for the most globally impactful causes, and an ambassador to Longview Philanthropy. Her most recent project is the Win-Win Podcast, which explores how people and society can develop a healthier relationship with the forces of competition.

Here's another one for the annals of “entire scientific field becomes totally misguided for decades”. How could it have been possible that so many scientists fell for the idea of candidate genes—that there were individual gene variants that explained huge chunks of variation in depression, aggression, intelligence, and many more psychological traits? How could they have written literally hundreds of peer-reviewed papers based on completely false “results”?Well, they did. Here's the story.(Why 99.5? We're putting off doing Episode 100, just so we can mark the occasion with an even better topic).The Science Fictions podcast is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine, the journal of underrated ideas for making the world a better place. Today we talked about the new article on why Japan's railways are so good and what other countries can learn from them. Read all their articles, for absolutely zero cost, at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* The first study on 5HTTLPR and depression, from 1996* Caspi et al.'s seminal 2003 Science paper on gene-environment interaction with 5HTTLPR and depression* “Orchid genes” in The Atlantic; Wired; The New York Times* Caspi et al's 2002 paper on MAOA, the “warrior gene”* Article on the Maori people and MAOA* 2009 story on an Italian court reducing a sentence due to MAOA* Though no such luck in New Mexico in 2021* Scott Alexander's classic 2019 article on candidate genes* Failure to replicate the 5HTTLPR GxE as early as 2005* 2009 meta-analysis with flat-as-a-pancake results for 5HTTLPR* Letter about the lopsided nature of its citations* 2011 “critical review” of candidate gene studies* 2019 Border et al. study attempting to replicate depression candidate genes* 2025 GWAS of depression* A Google Scholar search for “5HTTLPR depression”, restricted to articles published in 2026CreditsThe Science Fictions podcast is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

Screenwriters/producers Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski have written some of the most offbeat and imaginative movies of the last three decades, including "Ed Wood," "The People vs. Larry Flynt," "Man on the Moon" and "Big Eyes." Gilbert and Frank dropped by Scott and Larry's hotel as the boys prepped for the MOMA premiere of "Big Eyes" to talk about everything from their critically reviled debut film, "Problem Child" (featuring a certain shrill-voiced comedian) to their attempts at a Marx Brothers biopic and an "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World" sequel. PLUS: Margaret Keane's existential crisis! Kelton the Cop demands a cameo! Gallagher vs. Gallagher II! “Ed Wood & Bela Lugosi: A Love Story”! And Scott and Larry meet the King of Pop! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Screenwriters SCOTT ALEXANDER & LARRY KARASZEWSKI join us on the Best Show! Tom tells the story of writing them as a youngster and getting a signed Problem Child script! They discuss starting careers in film, their movies (Problem Child, Ed Wood, Mars Attacks), an upcoming Grateful Dead biopic, and more! Phones ring on the topic: BAD HABITS! Tom and caller Spiro discuss their homework: Tom listening to the Barenaked Ladies' album Gordon, and Spiro checking out Captain Beefhear & His Magic Band's Trout Mask Replica. Which is better? Plus, Tom gets a call from PAUL MCHARTLEY IN GREENBRIDGE! And Tom closes us out with some words of support for a famous conservative comedian! SUPPORT THE BEST SHOW ON PATREON! WEEKLY BONUS EPISODES & VIDEO EPISODES!https://www.patreon.com/TheBestShowWATCH THE BEST SHOW LIVE EVERY TUESDAY NIGHT 6PM PT ON TWITCHhttps://www.twitch.tv/bestshow4lifeFOLLOW THE BEST SHOW:https://twitter.com/bestshow4lifehttps://instagram.com/bestshow4lifehttps://tiktok.com/@bestshow4lifehttps://www.youtube.com/bestshow4lifeTHE BEST SHOW IS A FOREVER DOG PODCASThttps://thebestshow.nethttps://foreverdogpodcasts.com/podcasts/the-best-showHEARD IT ON THE BEST SHOW PLAYLISThttps://open.spotify.com/playlist/2XIpICdeecaBIC2kBLUpKL?si=07ccc339d9d84267See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I see people repeatedly make the mistake of referencing a very low liquidity prediction market and using it to make a nontrivial point. Usually the implication when a market is cited is that it's number should be taken somewhat seriously, that it's giving us a highly informed probability. Sometimes a market is used to analyze some event that recently occurred; reasoning here looks like "the market on outcome O was trading at X%, then event E happened and the market quickly moved to Y%, thus event E made O less/more likely." Who do I see make this mistake? Rationalists, both casually and gasp in blog posts. Scott Alexander and Zvi (and I really appreciate their work, seriously!) are guilty of this. I'll give a recent example from each of them. From Scott's Mantic Monday post on March 2: Having Your Own Government Try To Destroy You Is (At Least Temporarily) Good For Business On Friday, the Pentagon declared AI company Anthropic a “supply chain risk”, a designation never before given to an American firm. This unprecedented move was seen as an attempt to punish, maybe destroy the company. How effective was it? Anthropic isn't publicly traded, so we [...] --- First published: March 16th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SrtoF6PcbHpzcT82T/psa-predictions-markets-often-have-very-low-liquidity-be --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:

The People vs. Larry Flynt is a 1996 American biographical drama film directed by Miloš Forman, chronicling the rise of pornographer Larry Flynt and his subsequent clash with religious institutions and the law.[4] It stars Woody Harrelson, Courtney Love as his wife Althea, and Edward Norton as his attorney Alan Isaacman. The screenplay, written by Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, spans about 35 years of Flynt's life, from his impoverished upbringing in Kentucky to his court battle with Reverend Jerry Falwell, and is based in part on the U.S. Supreme Court case Hustler Magazine v. Falwell.

Ever heard of cognitive dissonance? That thing a psychology lecturer might have explained to you once upon a time, likely using the same UFO cult example everyone else uses. Well, a new paper by Thomas Kelly suggests that the UFO cult example might have been ever so slightly oversold.Kelly's archival work suggests that the researchers didn't just observe the cult as reported. Instead, they infiltrated it, faked supernatural experiences, assumed quasi-leadership roles, and then wrote up the results as if the group had spontaneously doubled down on their failed prophecy, which they had not. Because the leader recanted, and the group fell apart shortly after the failed prophecy. Minor details.Matt and Chris discuss this paper, a 2024 multilab replication, and some other papers by Kelly, considering the ever-reliable tendency of researchers to find exactly what they are looking for.It's cognitive dissonance all the way down, folks.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 10 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusDecoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked?00:00 Introduction02:04 Cognitive Dissonance Theory06:41 Classic lab evidence: effort justification & the ‘severe initiation' study08:33 When Prophecy Fails: The Original Account10:54 The debunking: archival evidence, misconduct claims, and ethical red flags20:22 Replication reality check: multi-lab results and ‘strong vs weak' dissonance31:40 Beyond one case: survivorship bias, failed prophecies, and early Christianity parallels35:51 Christianity as Historical Anomaly or Cognitive Dissonance Exemplar?41:48 Thomas Kelly: Interesting biosafety takes and a possible Christian lens45:43 The importance of seeking for disconfirming evidence50:23 Conspiracy-theory dynamics & narrative elaboration56:30 Classical Psychological Theories and Personal Motivations01:03:07 Steps that can be taken to reduce biases01:05:01 Stay tentative, check evidence, and don't pick sides too fast01:06:30 A lesson from Scott Alexander!SourcesAcademic Papers and BooksFestinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.Festinger, L., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1959). Cognitive consequences of forced compliance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58(2), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0041593 (The original induced-compliance/$1/$20 study)Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking "When Prophecy Fails." Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhbs.70043Kelly, T. (2025). Failed prophecies are fatal. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 14(1), 48–71. https://doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on...

Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long  Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: UK segment begins 6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer? 11:10: Starmer's communication problem 11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar 11:41: Starmer is hated 17:40: Free speech 24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure 25:23: Policy challenges 26:46: Housing 28:10: Local elections 32:50: Policy decisions 37:12: Immigration 39:30: Process After May Elections 42:14: May election odds 52:27: How Labour would remove Starmer 54:29: Blair-Brown rivalry 56:06: Trade unions 56:26: Soft left faction 1:05:52: Starmer U-turns 1:07:51: Challengers to Starmers 1:09:15: Reaction to Labour losses in May elections 1:12:30: UK segment ends 1:12:45: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Bet on UK politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. The next DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup will be on Thursday, January 29 from 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM at The Flying Mexican in Washington DC. ​ All 2026 DC meetups are sponsored by Polymarket! ​ Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed on future events across various topics. Polymarket's markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. Learn more at Polymarket.com. ​ Thanks to Polymarket, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. ​ Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Luma event page are welcomed! https://luma.com/dld19288?tk=XIracE ​ Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. ​ This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork ​ Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

We crawl around the dark crevices of the internet so you don't have to. And what wonders we have to show you...The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 34 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusSupplementary Material 4300:00 Introduction and Banter Allotment01:23 The Hypocrisy of the Defenders of Western Civilisation10:07 An Optimistic Take?17:02 Scott Adams' Controversial Legacy18:43 Scott Alexander's Rationalist Eulogy for Scott Adams32:31 A Final Tribute to Scott Adams33:43 Andrew Gold's Interview with a Racist39:02 Fair Play for being a Racist41:17 Comparing Follower Counts and Audience Makeup44:40 Racism and Xenophobia Discussion49:07 Securing the Future of Our People...01:00:01 LawTubers and Grifting01:00:48 Legal Mindset01:06:02 Antifa Woke Women are Hunting Legal Mindset01:07:41 A man of Christ01:09:16 A Red-Blooded American01:12:35 Woke White Women and Antifa Paranoia01:13:55 Electro Gym Work and Pygmy Hippo Love01:18:47 Antifa Paranoia01:26:36 The True Masculine Renegade YouTuber01:32:32 Concluding Thoughts and FarewellLinksPeter Boghossian complaining about public attention to the Greenland situationMike Cernovich's tribute: “Scott is loved because he's devoted his life to service to humanity”In full: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum (Davos)Scott Alexander's eulogy to Scott AdamsColeman Hughes on Scott Adams at The Free PressAndrew Gold – Heretics: “I Confront Britain's Biggest Racist”Liam Tufts: “Would You Let Your Kid Date a Black Person?” | Steve Laws sparks a heated debateLegal Mindset: “Free Kaya, Punish Hasan” (Fast Facts)Rob's Media: Idiot Influencers – Legal Mindset (Go East channel background)

Two years without discussing effective altruism -- did you miss it? Not as much as Vaden, surely. And probably a right bit more than Ben. Well, we're back in the game with a spicy one. Was EA a front for AI safety from the beginning? Did the leaders care not a wit for global poverty? Is Ben going to throw himself out window if Vaden keeps this up? We discuss Feedback on our introspection episode The motives of the EA founders The felicia forum Is this a conspiracy theory? EA's strategic ambiguity Bostromism, transhumanism, and AI safety EA funding The public/core divide and the funnel model Quotes new effective altruists tend to start off concerned about global poverty or animal suffering and then hear, take seriously, and often are convinced by the arguments for existential risk mitigation - Will MacAskill Existential risk isn't the most useful public face for effective altruism – everyone inc[l]uding Eliezer Yudkowsky agrees about that - Scott Alexander, 2015 Utilitymonster: GWWC is explicitly poverty-focused but high impact careers (HIC) is not. In fact, hardcore members of GWWC are heavily interested in x-risk, and I estimate that 10-15% of its general membership is as well. I'd take them seriously as a group for promoting utilitarianism in general. I'm a GWWC leader. [Redacted]: but HIC always seems to talk about things in terms of “lives saved”, ive never heard them mentioning other things to donate to. […] Utilitymonster: That's exactly the right thing for HIC to do. Talk about lives saved with their public face, let hardcore members hear about x-risk, and then, in the future, if some excellent x-risk opportunity arises, direct resources to x-risk. - From felicia forum. References Gleiberman's paper: https://medialibrary.uantwerpen.be/files/8518/61565cb6-e056-4e35-bd2e-d14d58e35231.pdf Old EA wikipedia page (web archive): https://web.archive.org/web/20170409171350/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism Old CEA webpage (web archive): https://web.archive.org/web/20161219031827/https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/fundraising/ Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here. Click dem like buttons on youtube Let us funnel you into the core group of super secret patreon supporters. Send us an email at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Forrest, Conan Neutron, Kristina Oakes and Daniel House talk about Tim Burton's Ed Wood Written by Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski who would go on to write "The People vs. Larry Flynt" "Man on the Moon" and "Dolemite is my Name, at a time when they were tired of being seen as solely "family friendly screenwriters" and launching the sub-genre of "Anti-Biopics."Ed Wood is a biopic about the filmmaker Edward D. Wood, once voted "Worst Director of All Time," operating under massive constraints in the 1950s as he struggled to make films like "Glenn or Glenda", "Bride of the Monster", and "Plan 9 from Outer Space" Starring Johnny Depp as Ed Wood, Martin Landau as Bela Lugosi, Sarah Jessica Parker, Patricia Arquette, Jeffrey Jones, Lisa Marie, and Bill Murray #edwood #timburton #belalugosi #johnnydepp #lisamarie #patriciaarquette #disney #biopic #billmurray #depp #filmpodcast #moviepodcast #classichollywood #hollywood #1994 #martinlandau #billmurray #livestream #livestreaming #shortsfeed #shorts #filmmaking #touchstone #lisamarie #presley #sarahjessicaparker #nightmarebeforechristmas #filmdirector We are also streaming on @thisspacetv throw them a followJoin our discord: https://discord.gg/ZHU8W55pnhJoin our Patreon to get all our After Parties https://www.patreon.com/MovieNightExtraConan Neutron & the Secret Friends new noir inspired music video "A Villain of Circumstance" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXjmjKzbTSI

Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.  Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.  Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri 1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller 1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets 2:47: Intro ends 4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins 5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me)  5:51: Odds on nuclear war 6:01: Anti-nuclear norms 6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes 7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes 8:46: India's no first use doctrine   10:05: Variance 10:18: Anthropic effects 10:52: Nuclear taboos 10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes 11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation 11:45: Segment ends 12:00: Interview with Miller begins 12:17: Miller's background 12:46: Rumsfeld 14:27: Chougule 14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule 15:06: Intralot 15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting 15:58: Prediction markets 16:46: Business of prediction markets 17:02: Amazon 18:36: How Miller got into lottery business 19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting 20:46: Women 21:19: Lottery regulation 21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance 24:10: Demographic of prediction market users 25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador   26:07: Black swan events 26:20: History 26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine 28:59: Data in diplomacy 29:47: Iraq War 31:23: AI 32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy 37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events 37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions 37:52: Medical research 39:43: Segment ends 39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups   Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.     Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month!     Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed!   Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.   This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork   Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50: Indian hardliners 20:51: Pakistan's hand 25:18: China 26:38: Saudi Arabia 27:50: Munir 28:14: Pakistani military 29:06: India's point of view 30:01: Hardline Indian policy 32:50: Timing of an Indian strike 35:21: Market rules on "strike" 36:33: No Indian ground forces 37:06: Indian strike in 2027 Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299 The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company. This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.  A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true  Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

Cameron Berg, Research Director at AE Studio, shares his team's groundbreaking research exploring whether frontier AI systems report subjective experiences. They discovered that prompts inducing self-referential processing consistently lead models to claim consciousness, and a mechanistic study on Llama 3.3 70B revealed that suppressing deception features makes the model *more* likely to report it. This suggests that promoting truth-telling in AIs could reveal a deeper, more complex internal state, a finding Scott Alexander calls "the only exception" to typical AI consciousness discussions. The episode delves into the profound implications for two-way human-AI alignment and the critical need for a precautionary approach to AI consciousness. LINKS: Janus' argument on LLM attention Safety Pretraining arXiv Paper Self-Referential AI Paper Site Self-Referential AI arXiv Paper Judd Rosenblatt's Tweet Thread Cameron Berg's Goodfire Demo Podcast with Milo YouTube Playlist Cameron Berg's LinkedIn Profile Cameron Berg's X Profile AE Studio AI Alignment Sponsors: Framer: Framer is the all-in-one platform that unifies design, content management, and publishing on a single canvas, now enhanced with powerful AI features. Start creating for free and get a free month of Framer Pro with code COGNITIVE at https://framer.com/design Tasklet: Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai Linear: Linear is the system for modern product development. Nearly every AI company you've heard of is using Linear to build products. Get 6 months of Linear Business for free at: https://linear.app/tcr Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing

You requested; we delivered. Lots of Science Fictions listeners have asked us to take a look into Donald Trump and RFK, Jr.'s recent claims about Tylenol (that is, paracetamol or acetaminophen—all the same thing). Does it cause autism?It turns out there's more to this than you might've thought—regardless of all the recent hype, a lot of very reputable scientists take the idea seriously. But should they? In this emergency podcast, we go through all the relevant studies.The Science Fictions podcast is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. In the ad this week we mentioned “The Death Rays that Guard Life”, an article from Issue 20 of the magazine about far-UVC light and how—with a lot more research—it might be the next big thing for reducing the spread of germs in hospitals and classrooms. Find that and many other articles and podcasts at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* The FDA's September 2025 announcement on Tylenol and autism* The UK's Department of Health and Social Care announcement the same day* “The phrase ‘no evidence' is a read flag for bad science communication”, by Scott Alexander* 2003 theoretical paper with speculation about paracetamol and neurodevelopmental disorders* 2013 sibling control study in the International Journal of Epidemiology* “Ecological” study in Environmental Health from 2013 about circumcision rates, paracetamol, and autism* 2015 Danish seven-year follow-up study* 2019 cord blood study in JAMA Psychiatry* 2021 “consensus statement” on paracetamol and neurodevelopment* 2025 Japanese sibling-control study* 2024 very large Swedish sibling-control study* Study that sparked the current debate: the “Navigation Guide” review from Environmental Health* Description of what “Navigation Guide” is* STAT News on the evidence for a paracetamol-autism link; and on the controversy about the Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health* White House statement defending the existence of the link* BMJ article summing up the controversyCreditsThe Science Fictions podcast is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

Unity. It was the prayer of Jesus. It is the sign of our identity. It is the proof of our Savior's presence. All will know we are Christ's disciples by how we treat one another. For we are one in Christ Jesus. In this three-part series, we explore the blessings, basis, and barriers to maintaining the unity of the Spirit in the bond of peace.The sermon today is titled "Barriers To Unity." This sermon is the third and last installment in our series "One In Christ." The Scripture reading is from Galatians 3:26-28 (NIV). Originally preached at the West Side Church of Christ (Searcy, AR) on October 12, 2025. All lessons fit under one of 6 broad categories: Begin, Instill, Discover, Grow, Learn, and Serve. This sermon is filed under SERVE: Announcing The Kingdom.Click here if you would like to watch the sermon or read a transcript.Podcast Notes (resources used or referenced):Alan Jacobs, How To Think (Currency, 2017).Susan Harding, "Representing Fundamentalism: The Problem of the Repugnant Cultural Other." Social Research 58/2 (Summer 1991): 373-93.Scott Alexander, "I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup." Sep 30, 2014.On "Conscience Fellowship," See F. LaGard Smith, Who Is My Brother?, Chapter 8.I'd love to connect with you!Watch sermons and find transcripts at nathanguy.com.Follow along each Sunday through YouTube livestream and find a study guide on the sermon notes page.Follow me @nathanpguy (facebook/instagram/twitter)Subscribe to my email newsletter on substack.

Hello and welcome back to another episode of B Bin Horror! On this week's episode we talk about the 2007 psychological horror film, 1408. 1408 was written by Matt Greenberg, Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski based on Stephen King's short story. The film was directed by Mikael Håfström and stars John Cusack, Samuel L. Jackson, Mary McCormack and Tony Shalhoub. On this week's episode we talk about the movie and what ending was our favorite, we compare it to Dante's Inferno and we give our theories on what happened in the film. If you like what you hear please follow us on Instagram and Facebook @bbinhorror. You can also send us emails at bbinhorror@gmail.com and please don't forget to subscribe to B Bin Horror on whatever podcast platform you listen on! *B Bin Horror theme music - "Uprising" by Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio*

Puedes descargar (gratis) el GPT que empleo para lograr pensamiento crítico. Es un asistente escéptico y no tendrá ningún problema en criticar tu punto de vista y evitar que te autoengañes: https://pildorasdelconocimiento.com/gpt-criticoncillo/ ¿Qué harías si pudieras pensar mejor… todos los días? En este episodio converso con Val Muñoz (Polymatas) sobre pensamiento crítico de alto nivel: cómo evitar sesgos, distinguir correlación de causalidad y tomar decisiones con más claridad (sin caer en la parálisis por análisis). Hablamos de ciencia como ecosistema que se fiscaliza, de metacognición, de falacias y de cómo construir un hombre de acero antes de debatir. ✔️ Dónde falla el “escéptico puro” y qué le falta para pensar bien. ✔️ Herramientas prácticas: “por qué / cómo”, pausa de Sistema 2 y abogado del diablo. ✔️ Estadística útil para la vida (muestra, media vs. mediana). ✔️ Dieta informativa: menos ruido, más fuentes sólidas y diversas. ✔️ Pronóstico y decisión: flexibilidad cognitiva y actualización constante. Si te interesan la claridad mental, las decisiones difíciles y la verdad por encima de la tribu, este episodio te va a encantar. ⏳ ÍNDICE DEL EPISODIO 00:00 – Introducción y por qué importa el pensamiento crítico 01:05 – Quién es Val Muñoz y qué es Polymatas 02:33 – Definición sencilla: “búsqueda sistemática de la verdad” 05:05 – Escepticismo necesario… pero no suficiente 08:29 – Correlación vs. causalidad: cómo se prueba de verdad 11:04 – Buenas prácticas: intervención, ciegos y tamaño muestral 12:42 – Crisis de replicación y preregistro: incentivos en ciencia 16:16 – Conocerte a ti mismo: limitaciones y sesgos propios 17:30 – Metacognición: pensar sobre tu pensamiento 19:12 – Hipótesis (inducción/abducción) vs. realidad 22:32 – Ciencia, poder y por qué sigue siendo la mejor herramienta 24:25 – Populismo, carisma y heurísticos para no caer 26:31 – Filósofos, citas y sesgo de autoridad 29:15 – Estadística práctica: media vs. mediana (salarios) 31:33 – Falacias: hombre de paja y ad hominem 35:33 – “Hombre de acero” y el sesgo del punto ciego 41:13 – Referentes que piensan a varios ángulos (Pinker, Feynman, Scott Alexander) 43:46 – Kit táctico: preguntas, pausas, refutación y amigos que te lleven la contraria 46:20 – Dieta informativa: poco, variado y de calidad 47:57 – Superpronosticadores: flexibilidad cognitiva 50:14 – Dunning–Kruger y el autoengaño del muy listo 52:08 – La Biblioteca Polymata y debatir sin marrullería 52:38 – Curso de Pensamiento Crítico (10 meses) 52:57 – Cierre Descarga gratis el libro «Nacidos para aprender»: https://pildorasdelconocimiento.com/libro-nacidos-para-aprender/ ✉️ Únete a mi lista de correos para ideas que te hacen pensar (y decidir mejor): https://pildorasdelconocimiento.com/ EL METAJUEGO: máster en complejidad estratégica: https://pildorasdelconocimiento.com/cursos/metajuego/ Asistente de IA para criticar tus propios pensamientos: https://pildorasdelconocimiento.com/gpt-criticoncillo/ Val Muñoz (Polymatas): Polymatas – Artículos, podcast y recursos para pensar mejor y entender el mundo con rigor y curiosidad. https://www.polymatas.com/ Biblioteca Polymatas – Comunidad de lectores donde leemos los 50 libros más importantes para comprender el mundo. https://www.polymatas.com/la-biblioteca-polymata/ Curso Avanzado de Pensamiento Crítico – Programa de 10 meses para razonar con más claridad, detectar sesgos y analizar discursos. https://www.polymatas.com/curso-pensamiento-critico/ Mis redes: X (Twitter) → https://x.com/Lualobus Instagram personal → https://instagram.com/fernando_pdc Instagram oficial → https://instagram.com/pildorasdelconocimiento

Host Michael Tamblyn spoke with novelist Scott Alexander Howard, winner of the 2025 Kobo Emerging Writer Prize and author of The Other Valley. It's the story of Odile Ozanne, a young girl who lives in a small village in a valley. In the next valley over, in the west, there is an identical village where events from 20 years ago are taking place, and in the valley to the east there is another village where it's 20 years in the future. Occasionally, and under the strictest controls and in a disguise rendering them unidentifiable, people will visit the other valleys, looking forward, or backward in time.   One day, visitors from the east—that is, from the future—are recognized by Odile, and she has to carry on pretending she hasn't seen what she knows she saw.  Scott Alexander Howard on the border-crossings between present and past

We're very sorry about the disrupted service over this summer! It's been hectic with work and a house move and various things. To tide you over, here's a formerly paywalled episode: our very first one.…If you've ever done a diversity training session at work, you'll almost certainly have learned about unconscious bias, microaggressions, stereotype threat, and trigger warnings. Prejudice, racism, and trauma are apparently simmering constantly, just under the surface of our conscious minds.It turns out that each of these concepts has been subject to a lot of scientific research. It also turns out, perhaps unsurprisingly, that they're all extremely controversial. In this first paid-subscriber-only episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look at each of them in turn and try to decide which of them—if any—stand up to scrutiny.To listen to the full version of this episode and see the show notes, you'll need to be a paid subscriber to The Studies Show podcast on Substack. See below, or go to www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe, for the options.If you're already a paid subscriber: thank you!Show Notes* Unconscious bias:* The Implicit Association Test at Harvard* The 2019 meta-analysis on experiments that try to change implicit, explicit, and behavioural biases* Article by Patrick Forscher, meta-analysis co-author, on unconscious bias training in CapX* Equality & Human Rights Commission Report on unconscious bias training* Microaggressions:* Original 2007 American Psychologist paper on microaggressions* Scott Lilienfeld's 2017 critique of microaggression research* His article in Aeon summarising the critique* Response to Lilienfeld by Monnica Williams* Lilienfeld's reply to Williams* Stereotype threat:* In the UK, girls now do better than boys at maths* 2015 meta-analysis on sex-related stereotype threat for maths* 2018 follow-up study by the same authors* 2019 meta-analysis on sex- and race-related stereotype threat* Planned meta-analysis on the decline effect in stereotype threat research* Trigger warnings:* The 2023 meta-analysis on trigger warning research* Scott Alexander on “The Wonderful Thing About Triggers”* Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff's book The Coddling of the American MindCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors  21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com  Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Picture the scene: You're a young screenwriter getting your first taste of success — but it's with a movie that didn't quite come out the way you wanted and the victory feels hollow. Suddenly, you find yourself being typecast as a writer of silly comedies while the industry boxes you out and the opportunities and (self)respect begin to slip away. What do you do? If you're Larry Karaszewski (and long time screenwriting partner Scott Alexander) you swerve hard out of that lane and typecast YOURSELF as auteurs of your own re-invented genre: The Anti-Biopic! Out of this savvy strategy the enduring classic ED WOOD is born and you are swept up in Hollywood's warm and loving embrace. Cut to a montage of THE PEOPLE VS. LARRY FLYNT, MAN ON THE MOON, BIG EYES and a lifetime of accolades, happiness and total fulfillment. THE END! On this episode we talk to Larry about going to inappropriate movies at the drive-in with his dad, a college experience that actually paid off, writing PROBLEM CHILD and then watching Robert DeNiro watch it, having a roommate that wrote HEATHERS, resurrecting Frank Perry, producing AUTO FOCUS, David Schwimmer as Robert Kardashian, orphan films, Milos Forman, and we pick the best(!!!) New York movies.

Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21: Maryland case Follow Star Spangled Gamblers Twitter: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31. https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6 Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators. Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Food and drink available for purchase. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Seconds out! Round one! Ding ding! And other boxing terms. We've found a topic on which Tom and Stuart actually disagree. Kind of. In this episode of The Studies Show, they use the examples of “the worm wars” (does deworming kids in developing countries help them stay in school?) and a new craze for “tooth bacteria” (can colonizing your mouth with a genetically-modified bacterium stop you getting cavities?) to argue about how we should make our minds up about uncertain—but potentially promising—medical treatments.The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. On the show this week we discuss one of the articles in their newest issue, on “the end of lead”—the history of countries slowly removing lead from pipes, paint, and the rest, and how much work still needs to be done. Find it, and a wealth of other fascinating free articles, at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* Tom's Unherd article about the Worm Wars* The famous 2004 paper that sparked the wars* “Deworming Debunked”, from the BMJ* The 2014 follow-up of the original dewormed Kenyan kids* GiveWell's re-analysis of both studies* And another more recent analysis by the same org* The third study in the same kids, from 2020* 2019 paper on “resolving the worm wars”* Scott Alexander's article on “defying cavity”—on the Lumina bacteria* Guy who claims the Lumina bacteria made him go blind* Saloni Dattani's useful thread on Lumina* 90% of drugs in preclinical trials don't make it to become medicine* Tom's frankly cruel tweet where he refers to Stuart as “Goofus”CreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

This is a link post. I donated my left kidney to a stranger on April 9, 2024, inspired by my dear friend @Quinn Dougherty (who was inspired by @Scott Alexander, who was inspired by @Dylan Matthews). By the time I woke up after surgery, it was on its way to San Francisco. When my recipient woke up later that same day, they felt better than when they went under. I'm going to talk about one complication and one consequence of my donation, but I want to be clear from the get: I would do it again in a heartbeat.I met Quinn at an EA picnic in Brooklyn and he was wearing a shirt that I remembered as saying "I donated my kidney to a stranger and I didn't even get this t-shirt." It actually said "and all I got was this t-shirt," which isn't as funny. I went home [...] The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 9th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yHJL3qK9RRhr82xtr/my-kidney-donation Linkpost URL:https://cuttyshark.substack.com/p/my-kidney-donation-story --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

This is a link post. Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors. I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I'm not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article. Note that the majority of this article was written before Eli's updated model was released (the site was updated june 8th). His new model improves on some of my objections, but the majority still stand. Introduction: AI 2027 is an article written by the “AI futures team”. The primary piece is a short story penned by Scott Alexander, depicting a month by month scenario of a near-future where AI becomes superintelligent in 2027,proceeding to automate the entire economy in only [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Introduction:(05:21) Part 1: Time horizons extension model(05:27) Overview of their forecast(10:30) The exponential curve(13:18) The superexponential curve(19:27) Conceptual reasons:(27:50) Intermediate speedups(34:27) Have AI 2027 been sending out a false graph?(39:47) Some skepticism about projection(43:25) Part 2: Benchmarks and gaps and beyond(43:31) The benchmark part of benchmark and gaps:(50:03) The time horizon part of the model(54:57) The gap model(57:31) What about Eli's recent update?(01:01:39) Six stories that fit the data(01:06:58) ConclusionThe original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KgejNns3ojrvCfFbi/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models Linkpost URL:https://titotal.substack.com/p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-bad-timeline --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

This is a link post. Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors. I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I'm not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article. Note that the majority of this article was written before Eli's updated model was released (the site was updated june 8th). His new model improves on some of my objections, but the majority still stand. Introduction: AI 2027 is an article written by the “AI futures team”. The primary piece is a short story penned by Scott Alexander, depicting a month by month scenario of a near-future where AI becomes superintelligent in 2027,proceeding to automate the entire economy in only [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Introduction:(05:27) Part 1: Time horizons extension model(05:33) Overview of their forecast(10:23) The exponential curve(13:25) The superexponential curve(20:20) Conceptual reasons:(28:38) Intermediate speedups(36:00) Have AI 2027 been sending out a false graph?(41:50) Some skepticism about projection(46:13) Part 2: Benchmarks and gaps and beyond(46:19) The benchmark part of benchmark and gaps:(52:53) The time horizon part of the model(58:02) The gap model(01:00:58) What about Eli's recent update?(01:05:19) Six stories that fit the data(01:10:46) ConclusionThe original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KgejNns3ojrvCfFbi/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models Linkpost URL:https://titotal.substack.com/p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-bad-timeline --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore persistent economic myths and recent developments—from cost disease in services like healthcare and education to stagnating manufacturing productivity, rising higher education costs, drug pricing policies, and student loan debates—while also reflecting on broader intellectual shifts driven by culture wars and foreign aid discussions. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  – TAKEAWAYS: Healthcare & Education Cost Trends Reversing: Healthcare price growth has slowed significantly since 2009 and is now growing slower than average costs. Technology's Role in Services: AI potentially solving education through personalized one-on-one tutoring (referencing "The Diamond Age"). Student Loans & Market Dynamics: Marginal students are dropping out of college, reducing demand. Pharmaceutical Pricing: Americans actually pay less on average for pharmaceuticals due to cheaper generics. Cultural Commentary: Discussing intellectual debates between prominent thinkers (Tyler Cowen vs. Scott Alexander on foreign aid, Scott Alexander vs. Curtis Yarvin on governance), emphasizing the importance of not getting trapped in the cultural moment of 2020-2021.

Can adults still grow new neurons in their brains? You'd think we might know the answer to the question of adult “neurogenesis” after more than half a century of neuroscience research. But it turns out we don't.In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into the suprisingly controversial question of adult neurogenesis. Are you “stuck with” the number of brain cells you had as a child, or can you add to that number by making the right choices as an adult? And does it even matter?This podcast is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine, which this week has a new article explaining why nuclear power is so expensive (spoiler: it relies on an incorrect scientific model that we've discussed in previous podcast episodes: the “linear no threshold” model. For a full explanation, along with articles on a dizzying array of other progress-related topics, take a look at www.worksinprogress.co. Show notes* Summary post on the debate by Scott Alexander from 2018* 2000 PNAS study on the brains of London taxi drivers* 2021 retrospective review of taxi driver studies* Study comparing passed vs. failed cabbies on “The Knowledge”* Study putting together neuroimaging research on when the brain peaks in volume and other measures* 1962 Science study on neurogenesis in rats* 1999 BrdU study in macaque monkeys* Famous 1998 study on neurogenesis in the human hippocampus* 2006 PNAS sudy on testing neocortical neurogenesis using Carbon-14 dating* 2013 study using similar methods on the hippocampus* 2018 Nature paper claiming no adult neurogenesis* Associated commentary article* Atlantic article describing the controversy by Ed Yong* 2018 paper finding neurogenesis occuring up to age 79* 2019 Nature Medicine paper claiming “abundant” adult neurogenesis* Fair-minded 2019 review paper* Somewhat angrier 2021 review paperCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. We're grateful to Claire Wang for her help with researching this episode. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Register for the webinar:Use an SBA Loan to Start a Roll-Up - TODAY May 22nd - https://bit.ly/4jgfQSYCovid forced Scott Alexander to pivot & rebuild the marketing agency he'd acquired just one year earlier. It worked.Topics in Scott's interview:Buying a digital marketing agencyDisappointment with the sellerUnderstanding customer churnPost-transition surprises with bookkeepingTurning around a bad company cultureWartime CEO vs Peacetime CEORevenue devastated during CovidRebranding and redirecting the companyUsing Facebook for medical salesMarketing Agency 101References and how to contact Scott:LinkedInJason Andrews on Acquiring Minds: How I Bought & Sold a Healthcare Business for 8 FiguresScott@jairusmarketing.comJairus MarketingGet a complimentary IT audit of your target business:Email Nick Akers at nick@inzotechnologies.com, and tell him you're a searcherLearn more about Walker Deibel's done-with-you buy-side advisory:The Acquisition LabGet complimentary due diligence on your acquisition's insurance & benefits program:Oberle Risk Strategies - Search Fund TeamConnect with Acquiring Minds:See past + future interviews on the YouTube channelConnect with host Will Smith on LinkedInFollow Will on TwitterEdited by Anton RohozovProduced by Pam Cameron

This is part two of a series about Jonathan Pageau (  @JonathanPageau  ) and John Verkvaeke (  @johnvervaeke  ) and their respective views on Spirit and pneumatology. I mention Jonathan Pageau, John Vervaeke, Paul Vander Klay, Elizabeth Oldfield, Kale Zelden, Rod Dreher, Grim Grizz, , Ed Hutchins, Tucker Carlson, St. Anthony of the Desert, Athanasius, David Sloan Wilson, John Calvin, Tanya Luhrmann, Charles Taylor, Chuck Colson, Will Barlow, Scott Alexander, Robert Falconer, Richard Schwarz, Chris Masterpietro (Vervaeke's collaborator), Jung (Carl Jung), Michael (Archangel), Jesus Christ, Satan, Andre Antunes, Daniel (prophet), Mary Harrington, Aristotle, Plato, Socrates, Meno, Gregory of Nyssa, Father John Bear, Hank (presumably Hank Green from a referenced conversation), Barack Obama, John Locke, Immanuel Kant, George Cybenko, Kurt Hornik, Jonathan Losos, Richard Dawkins, Jordan Peterson, Baldwin (James Mark Baldwin), Alex O'Connor, Nero Caesar, Adam, Plotinus, Spinoza (Benedict de Spinoza), Dan Wagenmaker, (Upton) Sinclair, Bishop VT Williams, Raphael (Raff), Anderson Day, William Desmond, Charles StangMidwestuary Info and Tickets - https://www.midwestuary.com/Part 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMjEY3BOPPI&t=928sDavid Sloan Wilson Dialogue - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CAyvVdNSzIWill Barlow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DoIgcSWJnE&t=4065s

Eneasz and Liam discuss Scott Alexander's post “Twilight of the Edgelords,” an exploration of Truth, Morality, and how one balances love of truth vs not destabilizing the world economy and political regime. CORRECTION: Scott did make an explicitly clear pro … Continue reading →

The Studies Show LIVE (with special guest Jesse Singal) is next Friday, 9th of May, at Conway Hall in London. Get your tickets right HERE! Or go to bit.ly/tss_live. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. can't be wrong about literally everything, can he? His latest controversial statement is that he wants to find the “environmental exposure” that has been causing the huge spike in autism rates over the past few decades.In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into whether there really is an autism epidemic in the first place—and if there isn't, why the diagnoses might be going up so quickly anyway.The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. This week we discussed the article from the most recent issue about the UK's land value tax—a cautionary tale of a policy that might sound good on paper, but was utterly cursed in practice. Find this and so many more fascinating articles about human progress at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* RFK Jr's latest claims about autism (and his plans to gather data)* His statement “I believe autism comes from vaccines”, from 2023* His “Children's Health Defence” org from 2015* CDC data on autism rates in the US* And similar data from the UK* A paper on the much lower rates in 1966* “Early infantile autism” - the original 1944 paper by Leo Kanner* Hans Asperger's similarly-timed research* And on his collaboration with the Nazis* On “refrigerator mothers”* Data from after the MMR vaccine was split in Yokohama, Japan* The DSM-V checklist for autism spectrum disorder* Scott Alexander's controversial piece “Against against autism cures”* 2023 paper on the prevalence of profound autism* Article on the growing waiting lists for autism diagnoses* More details on the same* 2022 paper on the genetics of autism* Article on rates of extra time in exams in the UK* Adam Hunt's post about Renée Thornton, hot-air balloonist* The Economist's Bagehot column on the “tyranny of turning up”* Underdiagnosed autism in girlsCreditsWe're grateful to Adam Hunt for talking to us about psychiatric diagnoses for this episode. The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Don't forget THE STUDIES SHOW LIVE—on 9 May in London! You can buy tickets at this link, or by going to bit.ly/tss_live.What's going to be the next pandemic? For a long time you might've seen news stories about the current threat of H5N1 bird flu, but you probably haven't paid much attention. In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart try and work out how worried we should be. Are COVID-scarred people freaking out over nothing? Or are we at the start of something much scarier?The Studies Show is brought you by Works in Progress magazine, a beautifully-produced magazine about science and technological progress. In the current issue you can read articles about new fertility technologies, land value tax, and the one we mentioned in the show, about prehistoric psychopaths. Find it all at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* The UK's “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”* “Of course the UK had a herd immunity strategy”* Tom's article on “the men who failed Britain”* The CDC on types of influenza virus* 2025 Harvard Medical School article on H5N1 bird flu* Article on the wild animal deaths caused by bird flu in the current outbreak* And the same for domestic animals* Egg prices! 1, 2* 2011 paper on haemagglutinin in avian flu viruses and its infectiousness to humans * Pigs as the “mixing vessel” for flu viruses* And the potential for cows to be the same* The controversial 2012 Science paper that modified a blue flu virus to be more infectious* The WHO's seeming low level of concern about the bird flu outbreak* Pasteurised milk and its effects on bird flu transmission* The Swift Centre's forecasts for the bird flu outbreak* Scott Alexander's big piece on bird flu* The evidence for the effect of antivirals on bird flu* DOGE cuts to a programme that monitored bird flu in dairy products, and to animal monitoringCreditsWe're very grateful to Claire Wang for her help with researching this episode. The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  What's the deal with the tariffs? Are the tariffs 4D chess? STABLE Act advances from committee Galaxy settles with the NYAG for touting Luna Trump pardons the BitMEX founders Coinlist returns to the US FDUSD has a depeg amidst Justin Sun drama Fidelity launches a no-fee crypto IRA product Larry Fink is bullish bitcoin Content mentioned: AI 2027, by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean

With listener insights, we take another look at the film that marked the Marxes' Hollywood debut and stands out as the only one featuring a manicurist we can name. This episode highlights the distinctiveness of Monkey Business, as comments explore how it stands apart from both their earlier work and later films. We'll dive into praise for Thelma Todd and even Zeppo, alongside the random nitpicks Marx fans are famous for. Joe Adamson, Scott Alexander and Eddie Deezen are among those contributing. Jay Hopkins would have as well, if he could figure out how to do it.

Malcolm Collins and his wife Simone are the hosts are (  @SimoneandMalcolm  ). Malcolm is a leading pronatalist, entreprenuer, and a new right intellectual and thought leader. We talk about the birth rate collapse and crisis, artificial intelligence, how to build cultures and religions that can resist this crisis, how to save civilization and whether victory might be possible. We mention Elon Musk, JK Rowling, JD Vance, Robert F Kennedy Jr, Ayan Hirsi Ali, Grimes, Mike Solana, Aaron Renn, Scott Alexander, Hasan Piker, Stephen Colbert, John Fetterman, and more.

Nelson G from “Average Home Theater Reviews” & I are joining forces to discuss our favorite episodes from each season & both movies. In our third episode, we'll discuss 6 episodes from Season 3.Ep1 "Loved to Death" from Tales from the Crypt #25. Directed by Tom Mankiewicz. Written by Joe Minion and John Mankiewicz. Originally aired on June 15, 1991.Aspiring screenwriter Edward Foster (Andrew McCarthy) has a crush on his neighbor, aspiring actress Miranda Singer (Mariel Hemingway). After failing to get Miranda to notice him, Edward finally gains her affection with a potion given to him by his woman-hating landlord (David Hemmings). Eventually, Edward begins to regret his choice after Miranda's newfound obsession with him becomes too much for him to handle. Also starring Kathleen Freeman as the next-door neighbor.Ep2 "Carrion Death" from Shock Suspense Stories #9. Written & directed by Steven E. de Souza. Originally aired on June 15, 1991.Earl Raymond Diggs (Kyle MacLachlan), a murderer who has recently escaped prison, is running for the Mexican border. He is pursued by a state trooper (George DelHoyo) who ends up slapping handcuffs on him. Diggs manages to kill the trooper, but the trooper manages to swallow the key before dying. With no other options to remove the cuffs, Diggs is forced to drag the trooper'sEp3 "The Trap" from Shock Suspense Stories #18. Directed by Michael J. Fox. Written by Scott Alexander. Originally aired on June 15, 1991.Lou Paloma (Bruce McGill), an obnoxious, egotistical, mean-spirited deadbeat who cannot hold down a job, is horribly in debt, and is both unfaithful and abusive (verbally and physically) to his wife, Irene (Teri Garr) ropes her and his brother, Billy (Bruno Kirby), into a plan to fake his own death, collect his life insurance money, and escape to a new life in Rio de Janeiro. Unfortunately, Lou is unaware that both his long-suffering wife and brother, who have developed an attraction to one another, are planning to double-cross him.Ep4 "Abra Cadaver" from Tales from the Crypt #37 (as "Dead Right!"). Directed by Stephen Hopkins. Written by Jim Birge. Originally aired on June 19, 1991.Years ago, Carl Fairbanks (Tony Goldwyn) and his brother Martin (Beau Bridges) were medical students. Carl played a prank on Martin which unexpectedly gave him a stroke and paralyzed one of his hands. In the present day, Carl becomes a successful surgeon whereas Martin's paralysis limits him to a medical research job. Martin gets his revenge by injecting Carl with an experimental serum that stops Carl's heart but keeps his brain alive, essentially trapping Carl in his own body. Note: Based on the story "Dead Right!" renamed for television.Ep7 "The Reluctant Vampire" from The Vault of Horror #20. Directed by Elliot Silverstein. Written by Terry Black. Originally aired on July 10, 1991.Ep13 "Spoiled" from The Haunt of Fear #26. Directed by Andy Wolk. Written by Connie Johnson & Doug Ronning. Originally aired on August 21, 1991.In a meta-layered spoof of daytime soap operas, Janet (Faye Grant), a housewife who is obsessed with the soap opera There's Always Tomorrow and watches the program religiously, is annoyed that her doctor husband, Leon (Alan Rachins), is more obsessed with experimenting on a rabbit than spending time with her. When her TV loses picture at a crucial moment in the show, Janet calls in a cable man named Abel (Anthony LaPaglia), to have cable installed. Inspired by There's Always Tomorrow's no-nonsense main character, Fuschia Monroe (Anita Morris), Janet begins a steamy affair with Abel while Leon is distracted with his work. When Leon catches the two of them in the act, he soon wonders if he could try his experiment on human subjects. Check out Nelson's YouTube Channel at https://youtu.be/gyd0D5sCPYU?si=_jRO4WpXDUC8i01DSupport this podcast at https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fave-five-from-fans/support

From Martin & Lewis to Abbott & Costello... from Joe Besser to Curly-Joe DeRita... from Tor Johnson to Groucho Marx... one legendary artist has chronicled the greats, near-greats, and semi-greats of show business with a mix of love, tenderness, and liver-spotted frankness. We talk to Drew Friedman about his long career, his favourite subjects, and the new documentary "Drew Friedman: Vermeer of the Borscht Belt." "Drew Friedman: Vermeer of the Borscht Belt" plays in Los Angeles at the Aero Theater on March 29, 7:30pm, followed by a panel discussion featuring Friedman, director Kevin Dougherty, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski, Steven Weber, Dana Gould, KAZ, Leonard Maltin, Kliph Nesteroff, and Merrill Markoe. Get tickets here: https://www.americancinematheque.com/now-showing/drew-friedman-vermeer-of-the-borscht-belt-3-29-25/

BONUS: Gojko Adzic on Optimizing Products for Long-Tail Users (Agile Online Summit 2024 Replay) In this BONUS episode, we revisit Gojko Adzic's insightful interview at the Agile Online Summit 2024. Gojko, an award-winning author and software expert, unpacks the principles behind his latest book, Lizard Optimization, offering a fresh perspective on improving product usability by addressing the needs of long-tail users. From learning from unexpected user behaviors to refining products with a systematic approach, this episode is filled with practical tips for product teams and Agile practitioners. What is Lizard Optimization? Drawing from his experiences as a product developer, Gojko introduces the idea of Lizard Optimization. He discusses how observing unexpected user behaviors led him to refine his SaaS tools like Narakeet and MindMup. By focusing on usability challenges and unusual patterns, he has turned serendipity into actionable insights. “Users aren't stupid—they're just finding creative ways to get value from your product. Listen to them.” Gojko explains the inspiration behind the metaphor of the “Lizardman constant,” a concept from a Scott Alexander blog post. He describes how this principle applies to product optimization: understanding and addressing the 4% of surprising, unexplainable behaviors can uncover opportunities for innovation. “The job isn't to judge users—it's to explore why they're doing what they're doing and how we can help them succeed.” The High-Level Process of Lizard Optimization Gojko outlines the systematic process described in his book to leverage unexpected user behavior: Observe Misuse: Identify how users deviate from expected patterns. Extract Insights: Focus on one unexpected behavior as a signal. Remove Obstacles: Help users achieve their goals more easily. Monitor Impacts: Detect and adjust for unintended consequences. “Start monitoring for the predictable but unexpected—those hidden gems can unlock your next big feature.” Practical Advice for Product Teams For teams ready to apply these concepts, Gojko emphasizes the importance of expanding observability tools to include product metrics and not just technical ones. He shares how tracking unpredictable user actions can inspire impactful changes. “About a third of what we do delivers value—focus on finding where unexpected value lies.” Recommended Resources To dive deeper into these ideas, Gojko recommends: Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments by Ron Kohavi Evidence Guided by Tim Herbig LizardOptimization.org “Experimentation and evidence-based decision-making are the keys to building better products.” Closing Thoughts: “Look for the Unexpected” Gojko's parting advice for Agile practitioners is simple yet powerful: Look for the unexpected. By embracing surprises in user behavior, teams can transform minor inconveniences into major opportunities for growth. “The unexpected is where innovation begins.” About Gojko Adzic Gojko Adzic is an award-winning author, speaker, and product creator. His books, including Lizard Optimization, Impact Mapping, and Specification by Example, have become essential reads for Agile practitioners and product teams worldwide. Gojko is a 2019 AWS Serverless Hero, the winner of the 2016 European Software Testing Outstanding Achievement Award, and the 2011 Most Influential Agile Testing Professional Award. He has also co-founded several successful SaaS tools, including Narakeet, MindMup, and Votito. You can link with Gojko Adzic on LinkedIn.

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers  Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

GGACP celebrates the 30th anniversary of the classic comedy-drama "Ed Wood" (released September 28, 1994) with this ENCORE of an interview with the film's screenwriters Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski. In this episode, Scott and Larry talk about the Ed Wood-Bela Lugosi relationship, the exuberance of Milos Forman, the bizarro cinema of Rudy Ray Moore and their Eddie Murphy vehicle, “Dolemite is My Name.” Also, Jim Carrey pranks Danny DeVito, Tim Burton befriends Vincent Price, Ray Walston “replaces” Peter Sellers and Scott and Larry remember the late, great Martin Landau. PLUS: Appreciating Robert Morse! The legacy of William Goldman! Mae West seduces 007! The Marx Brothers meet the Master of Disaster! And the boys pick their favorite big-screen biopics! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 1999, director Milos Forman reunited with his People Vs. Larry Flynt screenwriters Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski for another biopic of an iconoclast, Man on the Moon. Rebounding from the Oscar snub for The Truman Show, Jim Carrey took on the role of Andy Kaufman and according to history, took it a bit too seriously. The film received … Continue reading "310 – Man on the Moon"

Is Anxiety a demon? It's a question raised, weirdly, by the most popular kids' movie in America right now--and by the entire practice of modern psycotherapy. Typically, when we try to understand mental illness, we refer to natural causes like brain chemistry or personal and family history. But are there some forms of cognitive disorder that don't originate within us--that invade us from the outside? I'm using sources both ancient and modern to tackle that question today after a listener wrote in with some provocative thoughts. Check out our sponsor, the Ancient Language Institute: https://ancientlanguage.com/youngheretics/ I maked this: Light of the Mind, Light of the World: https://a.co/d/0fUMLN9f Gateway to the Epicureans: https://a.co/d/03RaCAP5 Subscribe to be in the mailbag: https://rejoiceevermore.substack.com Subscribe to my joint substack with Andrew Klavan (no relation): https://thenewjerusalem.substack.com Scott Alexander's review of Robert Falconer: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-the-others-within-us?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web