Podcasts about Bayes

Videorna från filerna Clas & KirkpatrickDr G om Astronauterna i Filerna Grusch Dolan om filerna Stötta via Swish ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠0722330843⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tack till dig som lyssnar, speciellt via Spotify, sprider och skriver en recension olika poddspelare, tips, feedback. Extra tack till dig som prenumererar på extrainnehåll. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠För bonusmaterial och prenumeration på extrainnehåll följ denna länk (Alt. klicka på låst avsnitt i spotify) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠OCH följ länk i bekräftelsemejlet som du sparar. (Kan krångla flera timmar. Vänta en stund, ladda om) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ufobrt/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Galandel Music⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ETPersson@protonmail.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠

With Charles Kenney, a graduate student in combinatorics, we explore: - what do intense hatred and food allergies have in common - why to be more like a fox than a hedgehog - how to think about biases - the linguistic Rorschach test   Startovač: https://www.startovac.cz/patron/misto-problemu/ FB stránka: https://www.facebook.com/mistoproblemu Web: https://www.mistoproblemu.cz/   Timestamps:   (0:00) introduction (1:41) equalities and inequalities (5:17) the nature of combinatorics (18:11) the Bayes rule (25:56) handling uncertainty and biases (31:43) collaboration and author order (36:37) academia vs. industry (45:00) opportunity cost and habits (51:38) problem solving strategies   Links:   - foxes and hedgehogs: https://www.historyaccess.com/new/isaiah-berlins-hedgehogs-and-foxes/ - Erdős vs Grothendieck: https://golem.ph.utexas.edu/category/2007/04/the_two_cultures_of_mathematic.html

In this powerful episode of The Reformed Brotherhood, Tony and Jesse return to their parable series with an in-depth examination of the Laborers in the Vineyard from Matthew 20:1-16. This often-misunderstood parable confronts our natural inclination toward merit-based thinking and exposes the scandal of God's grace. The hosts unpack the covenantal language embedded in the text, particularly the workers' "grumbling"—a loaded term echoing Israel's wilderness rebellion. Through careful exegesis and theological reflection, they demonstrate how this parable dismantles religious entitlement while celebrating God's sovereign freedom to bestow mercy according to His purposes, not our calculations. The discussion offers fresh insights into grace, election, and the radical generosity that defines God's kingdom economy. Key Takeaways The parable operates on covenant logic, not economic fairness: The landowner's dealings with his workers reflect covenantal promise-keeping rather than marketplace transactions, establishing that God's relationship with His people is fundamentally gracious. "Grumbling" carries profound theological weight: The Greek word used for the workers' complaint is the same term in the Septuagint for Israel's wilderness rebellion—not mere dissatisfaction, but a covenantal accusation against God's faithfulness. Two types of workers represent two approaches to God: The first-hired workers who contracted for specific wages represent those relating to God through legal obligation and merit, while later workers who trusted the owner's promise represent faith-based relationship. The reversal of payment order is narratively essential: By paying the last workers first, the landowner deliberately exposes the merit-based assumptions of the first workers, forcing them to confront their entitlement. Grace doesn't negate justice—it transcends it: The landowner fulfills every contractual obligation while simultaneously exercising sovereign generosity beyond what is owed, demonstrating that mercy and justice coexist in God's character. The parable addresses the present kingdom, not just heaven: Because it includes grumbling and complaint, this parable describes life in God's kingdom now—the "already but not yet"—rather than the consummated state. Divine sovereignty in salvation is the theological climax: The landowner's declaration "Am I not allowed to do what I choose with what belongs to me?" directly addresses God's freedom in election and the scandal of unmerited grace. Key Ideas The Covenantal Nature of the Landowner's Dealings The parable's opening establishes a formal agreement between the landowner and the first workers: one denarius for a day's labor. This contractual arrangement is crucial for understanding what follows. Unlike marketplace haggling, this represents a covenant—the landowner binds himself to provide what he has promised. Tony emphasizes that even this initial contract is an act of condescension and grace, as the master had no obligation to employ anyone at all. As the day progresses, subsequent workers are hired with increasingly less formal agreements. By the third hour, the landowner promises only "whatever is right," and by the eleventh hour, no wage is even mentioned. These later workers enter the vineyard based entirely on the landowner's character and trustworthiness. This progression mirrors the movement from law to gospel—from contractual obligation to trusting promise. The theological implication is profound: those who relate to God based on His gracious word rather than calculated merit are actually in a more secure position than those who attempt to earn their standing through works. The Wilderness Echo: Grumbling as Covenant Violation The hosts make a critical exegetical observation about the Greek word for "grumbling" (γογγύζω) used in verse 11. This is not casual complaining but the identical term used throughout the Septuagint to describe Israel's covenant rebellion in the wilderness. When the workers grumble "upon receiving" their wages, they're not merely expressing disappointment about pay inequality—they're filing a covenant lawsuit against the master, accusing him of unfaithfulness. This connection to Numbers 16 and Exodus 16-17 is devastating. The Israelites' wilderness grumbling wasn't about logistics or comfort; it was fundamentally about doubting God's covenant fidelity. By employing this loaded terminology, Matthew signals that the first workers' complaint is nothing less than accusing God of covenant violation. The landowner's response ("Friend, I am doing you no wrong. Did you not agree with me for a denarius?") is a covenant defense—he has fulfilled his obligations precisely. The workers' real offense is not miscalculation but begrudging God's freedom to show mercy beyond what is contractually required. The "Evil Eye" and Begrudging God's Grace The final rhetorical question—"Or do you begrudge my generosity?"—contains another Jewish idiom often lost in translation. The Greek literally reads, "Is your eye evil because I am good?" This "evil eye" imagery appears throughout Scripture as a metaphor for envy, stinginess, and resentment toward another's blessing. The landowner's question cuts to the heart: are you cursing me for being generous? This directly parallels Jonah's response to Nineveh's salvation. Jonah had just experienced miraculous deliverance through the great fish, yet when God showed identical mercy to the Ninevites, Jonah's response was essentially, "I knew you were gracious—that's why I ran!" The parable exposes the same perverse logic: those who have received covenant mercy begrudging that same mercy extended to others. For the Pharisees listening to Jesus, this was an indictment of their resentment toward tax collectors and sinners receiving the kingdom. For Christians today, it challenges any sense of spiritual superiority based on how long we've been in the kingdom or how much we've sacrificed. Memorable Quotes Am I not allowed to do what I choose with what belongs to me? Or do you begrudge my generosity? That 'or' is a logical connector—either I'm not allowed to do what I want with my belongings, which is ridiculous, or if I am allowed, then you must be mad at me for being generous. Those are the only options. — Tony Arsenal The grumbling in the Old Testament in this context is a covenantal accusation. These workers aren't just complaining about not getting what they thought they would—they're questioning the veracity of the covenant that was made. — Tony Arsenal Most of us are this eleventh-hour call. It's much better to be in the place of that younger brother who comes in and repents than to be the older brother who is stubborn and finds some reason to come before God with self-righteous grievances. — Jesse Schwamb Full Episode Transcript [00:01:05] Jesse Schwamb: Welcome to episode 488 of the Reformer Brotherhood. I'm Jesse  [00:01:13] Tony Arsenal: and I am still Tony, and this is the podcast where Tony comes back. Hey brother.  [00:01:19] Jesse Schwamb: Hey brother. The band is back together again, man. It's reunited and boy, do you feel it? It feels good, doesn't  [00:01:26] Tony Arsenal: it? I do, I do. I'm excited to come back. It was nice to take a break. [00:01:29] Jesse Schwamb: Good.  [00:01:29] Tony Arsenal: I, uh, I've been, you know, texted with you a couple times. Just it was, I did my best to sort of not think about the podcast because that's sort of defeats the purpose of taking a break from something if you spend a lot of time thinking about it. Um, so I'm back. I'm refreshed. I'm ready to go.  [00:01:44] Break and Work Chaos [00:01:44] Tony Arsenal: I appreciate the listeners' patience. Uh, it's been sort of a weird, crazy busy time at work. Uh, there's a lot going on. I, I lost like. 60% of my staff in the course of like three weeks. And, um, I'm still kind of in the thick of it, but we're coming out of it. So took a little bit of time to just make sure that I was having a, an appropriate space to de-stress from that and take care of my family and attend to worship. And, um, it was really a, a blessing to have that. Uh, sort of sabbatical. Ironically, the sabbatical wars were going on at the same time on Twitter, and Jesse is blissfully unaware of that 'cause he's not involved in in the Twitter. That's true. Um, but yeah, just took a little break and it's kinda like overblown it, to call it a sabbatical. Like this is a podcast, it's a hobby, but, but it was nice to have, uh, a little bit of extra time, you know, couple hours extra week, uh, uh, each week of extra time to just decompress and, uh, play with the kids and spend time with my wife and clean the house a little bit, which was good.  [00:02:36] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, it is always good to have a clean house. You look great. You seem refreshed. The voice sounds good, and I'm like, I don't know, in year seven or eight of my Twitter sabbatical, it's going great so far. I feel like I haven't missed a whole lot. The world still seems wild and I'm sure, or X, right? We gotta go X on this. It's  [00:02:53] Tony Arsenal: always Twitter. It's always gonna be Twitter. I don't care what Elon Musk  says.  [00:02:56] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, I'm listen. I'm totally fine with that.  [00:02:58] Back to Parables [00:02:58] Jesse Schwamb: And I teased this in the last episode, but we can't be stopped. I mean, people should know this by now, we have an inexorable march through the parables of Jesus's true. That will not be stopped. We're always gonna come back until there are no more. And on this episode, we're gonna be hanging out in Matthew 20, talking about laborers in the Kingdom of Heaven.  [00:03:17] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah. I'm stoked. I'm, I'm, I'm excited to get back into it. I'm excited to get back into the word together with everybody. I'm excited to clear whatever that was on in my throat out  [00:03:27] Jesse Schwamb: emotion,  [00:03:27] Tony Arsenal: live on the air. Uh, but yeah, it'll be good. I'm, I'm stoked. I mean, I love this stuff and it's good to be back.  [00:03:32] Jesse Schwamb: Listen, you had the rest. Now let's talk about labor. So speaking of labor, it's, it's time for you to work up here, Tony. Are you affirming with or denying against on this episode?  [00:03:42] Tony Arsenal: Uh, I'm affirming something and I'm hopeful, uh, that just a little behind the scenes activity here. Jesse recorded episode 487, like an hour and a half ago. I have not yet listened to it, so I don't know if you did an affirmation and I I did. If you did. I hope it's not the same one.  [00:03:58] Jesse Schwamb: I did not. You're  [00:03:59] Tony Arsenal: safe. Uh, good. So I'm safe.  [00:04:01] Artemis II Hype [00:04:01] Tony Arsenal: So, um, I'm affirming the Artemis two mission. Um, oh, nice. Have you been, I mean, I know you're not on Twitter, but I'm sure there's news elsewhere. Uh, this amazing mission around the moon, um, for astronaut, for astronauts, I think, um, the furthest man space travel, um, since the Apollo program. Um. Pretty intense, pretty amazing pictures, right? The camera technologies amazing. Increased exponentially, uh, since we were there last. Um, this is ostensibly in preparation for an actual moon landing, which who knows when that will be? Um, but as far as I've seen, the mission was a resounding success. There was no right. I think they had, they ran into a few little hiccups early on with some technical things, but nothing crazy. I have not heard. Um, I know they did touch down and they did reentry. Um, I've not heard anything one way or another, but I'm assuming since I have not heard terrible, tragic news that they made it through, did they do the reentry? I'm really, apparently I'm not actually paying as much attention to this as I thought I was. I saw a lot of information about reentry, but I guess, I don't know for sure when that happened or is happening.  [00:05:05] Jesse Schwamb: I mean, by this point, when people listen to it, it'll be old news anyway, right? So  [00:05:09] Tony Arsenal: For sure. Yeah. And either, either it went terribly wrong and I'm gonna feel awful, or it went fine and I'm gonna feel a little silly for. Throwing a caveat that it went terribly wrong out there. But, um, it's cool. It's, it's amazing. I mean, I, I commented to my wife the other day and she's kinda like, yeah, maybe we should like, spend that money on people who are on the planet. I was like, okay, I can, I can buy that wisdom. But, um, there's something very cool and very Genesis, uh, one, ask Genesis one and two, ask about flying out into space and taking dominion over Yeah, for sure. Over a, a little ball of rock, uh, you know, uh, 25,000 miles away or whatever it is. Um. And, you know, I'm like an engineering nerd. I, I don't know anything about engineering, but I love watching YouTube videos that explain stuff like this. And  [00:05:52] Jesse Schwamb: me  [00:05:52] Tony Arsenal: too, all of the videos that have cropped up now about free return and how, like they're able to basically like do minimal burn on the thrusters to get into the right trajectory and then just like meet the moon in the place it's gonna be. And then the, you know, the moon's gravity captures it and whips it back around and then shoots it back towards Earth. And for the most part, they're able to do all of that with relatively minor, um, relatively minor energy output because they're just utilizing physics and gravity and math, um, to fly to the moon and come back. Yes. It's pretty crazy amazing. So, yeah. Amazing. And the photos of like the, the sort of like new versions of the Earthrise photos are really, really phenomenal. Um, they're crisp, they're clean, they're obviously like the best, the best actual pho photographic images we've had of the lunar surface. Um. And the, the far side of the lunar surface, which we get all sorts of like telescopic photos and things of this side of the lunar surface because it's tightly locked and is facing us at all times. We don't get a ton of really great photography of the far side of the moon, which is a big part of what this mission was, so,  [00:06:56] Jesse Schwamb: right.  [00:06:56] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. If you haven't seen the photos, I mean, they're out there, they're amazing. There will be even more available once we get back. You know, they, they're transmitting only the most stellar, amazing ones. Um, and, but they're taking, I'm sure thousands and thousands of photos and, um, so yeah, it's pretty cool. I'm affirming the Artemis two mission. Um. It's just amazing what, what people can do with common grace, you know? That's right. In insight into nature. Um, I don't know anything about the astronauts. I don't know anything about their religious faith or their spiritual life or anything like that. But, um, the people who design this, the people who fly it, they're just tapping into the truth that's present in God's creation. So good on them. Uh, either I'm glad they got home, wish they have a safe home coming, or something along those lines, I guess. I don't know.  [00:07:40] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, you'll be happy to know that NASA is reporting that the four astronauts are an excellent condition after they landed in the Pacific Ocean. So  [00:07:47] Tony Arsenal: good.  [00:07:47] Jesse Schwamb: All, all appears to be well. And it says they have a giant SD card of pictures that's they've been taking. Yeah. And saving. I'm sure. They were just, they were just too big to send to over wifi.  [00:07:58] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Like massive wideness. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure they have a ton that they didn't send because you know Right. Data rates to the moon are pretty high. Yeah.  [00:08:05] Jesse Schwamb: Ex. Yeah.  [00:08:05] Tony Arsenal: This economy is crazy. So  [00:08:07] Jesse Schwamb: Exactly. In this economy. Really In this economy. Yeah, exactly.  [00:08:11] Cosmic Worship Reflections [00:08:11] Jesse Schwamb: I think you're right. This is good. I haven't talked about this at all. It's hard not to get just stoked, even in the amateur way about the science, the technology, the physics of all this stuff, and then even the astronauts just being overwhelmed by what they're seeing. [00:08:24] Tony Arsenal: Mm-hmm.  [00:08:25] Jesse Schwamb: It's hard not to get pulled into that and think about the universe that God has created and find that there is something transcendent just, uh, by observing all of these things. Yeah. Like even casually, which I think shows, again, this is literally the, the heavens and the earth crying out for God, showing his immeasurable power and, you know, immortal nature. It's incredible that we can even see and be a part of some of these things. Just wild.  [00:08:49] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah, and I think it's crazy that they can get signals to the moon. I mean, I drive home from Dartmouth College and I go through half of the spot there, and I don't have a cell signal, but we can get images from the moon. Um, so yeah, it's great. It's great. Check it out if you haven't seen it. If you haven't heard about it, I don't know what you're doing. Uh, this is probably the largest major scientific advancement in our generation. Um, in terms of like big scale scientific enterprise projects. There's been a lot of really amazing technology that's been developed. But this is like the first big. Almost like risky kind of scientific,  [00:09:30] Jesse Schwamb: right?  [00:09:30] Tony Arsenal: I dunno. Gambit or I dunno, gamble that we've done in a long time. Big deal. I mean, big a lot. Deal of things. Deal. Nothing went wrong. Nothing ma major went wrong. Praise God that they all got back to the planet safely. Right. But, um, a lot of things could have gone wrong, uh, and they didn't. So check out the photos, check out the scientific data they're gonna get. I mean, I'm sure they've got all sorts of information about the way the, the, the space ship moved, all of that stuff. It's gonna be really interesting to see kind of how this all comes about.  [00:09:56] Jesse Schwamb: Get some worship on, right? Yeah. I mean this is what a one, a thing to be reminded about how big and how glorious God is. [00:10:01] Tony Arsenal: Yeah.  [00:10:01] Jesse Schwamb: And, and to realize, like you said, the risks of this exploration. And this is God again, creating all of this outta nothing. Why? Yeah. Just absolutely wild. Incredible.  [00:10:12] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah, for  [00:10:12] Jesse Schwamb: sure. Blown away.  [00:10:13] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. What about you, Jesse? What do you have for us?  [00:10:15] Bayes and Predictability [00:10:15] Jesse Schwamb: I got affirmation. It's equally nerdy, and actually this is as is always the case. This is why one of many reasons I miss you is it, it dovetails so nicely, so I'm affirming with a book. It's called Everything Is Predictable, how Esy and Statistics Explains the World. It's by a guy named Tom Chivers. I know this sounds super nerdy, but hear me out on this because Thomas Bayes, if you don't know this guy is first kind of like a wild and interesting guy, but this whole theory he put forward is super interesting. And this book is not like a mathematics book. It's like reads almost like a statistical thriller, which as it came outta my mouth, realized it was not maybe more ingratiating. I could have chosen better words than statistical thriller. But Thomas Bayes was alive in the 17 hundreds. And what's interesting to me at least about him, is he was an English statistician, who was a Presbyterian minister actually. He was a non-conformist and his, this whole theorem that he developed was actually published after his death. And the non-conformist part is super interesting. It's all in this book, even some of his different theological ideas. But because he was non-conformist, it basically meant like he couldn't learn. He was kicked out of all the English universities. He had to go to Scotland. Even all of that shaped how he came up with this particular theorem. But the gist of it is. Rather than treating like probabilities, as we think about it as this fixed frequency, you know, how many times does this thing occur? He argued and realized that it should represent a degree of belief and then you would update that belief rationally as new evidence comes in. And I know that sounds super quaint, but this is like what machine learning is based on medical diagnosis. A lot of like space travel is based on this in terms of understanding uncertainty and systems spam, all of that stuff. Here's an example, I think Tony, because we are, we have to carry forward with the top 50 medical podcast thing, right? We've got going on here. Lemme just give everybody an example of why you need this and why you automatically think this way. So. Statistics is really important, especially in medical testing. This was really prevalent in during COVID. So there's two ways that you can describe how a medical test performs you. You know this already, Tony, you're an expert. So one would be like sensitivity. So like how AIG  [00:12:19] Tony Arsenal: not an expert.  [00:12:20] Jesse Schwamb: Oh, you're definitely an expert in testing. Here we go. So one would be like sensitivity. How good is the test at catching people who are sick? So if you're sick, you, you want the test to identify that, that you're sick. That's sensitivity. So a test with a 99% sensitivity is gonna correctly identify 99 out of a hundred people who are truly sick. It always gonna miss one person. It's a false negative. The other half of that coin is something called specificity. So if sensitivity is all about catching the people who are sick, specificity is gonna say, how good is the test at clearing people who are not sick? And so a test with 99% specificity, you might have correctly guessed, is gonna identify or clear 99 out of a hundred healthy people. Now if you have a test. Both of those 99% sensitive and 99% specific, you might be thinking, that is the dream. That's exactly what I want. That that test is gonna be so precise and accurate. How could my intuition fail me? But this is the thing. It actually fails all the time, and here's why. Let's say that. You go out and you screen a group of people, a general population for a rare disease that affects one in a thousand people. One in a thousand people, rare disease. So if you screen 10,000 people from the general population, that means that truly only 10 of them are going to have the actual disease. I'm not gonna do all the math 'cause it'll, oh, this is already making for amazing podcasting. But here's the bottom line. That test, which sounds so good on the face, is going to identify 109 people as truly sick or truly having disease. But the problem is that only 10 of them actually have it. That means that only there's, it only has a success rate of 9%. There's only 9% chance you actually have the disease, but it's falsely identified. The short end of this is Bayes corrects that problem. He fixes it with his theorem so that we get to the right number of people. That's what's called like a base fallacy rate. It's not taking into account that really only 10 people should have this particular disease or this sickness. So I know that's sounds super nerdy, but so much of our lives are based on this. We have a prior belief or a prior set of things that we understand about the world. And then as evidence comes in, we refine that. That sounds so normal and normative, but it's revolutionary in this book actually. Bayes versus what's called like frequentist or frequent, um, probability is like hotly debated. People actually throw down over this theorem. So it's a really fun read. Go check out. Everything is predictable. Al Bayesian statistics explains our world. It really is for everybody. And then you can impress your friends with all the statistical pross you're gonna have when you're done reading it.  [00:14:56] Tony Arsenal: Like the medical administrator hat that I can't always take off is like, why would we screen 10,000 people? Are, are they all symptomatic? Are none of them symptomatic? But suppose it doesn't really  [00:15:08] Jesse Schwamb: matter for the example. That's a great, so generally what happens here is, let's say it's like some kind of rare form of cancer, unless you use Bayesian statistics, what you'll find is you'll get these false positive rates. So these tests do use Bayesian statistics. It corrects, in other words, for this problem. So there might be a lot of people that are gonna screen for this because if you, you wanna know if you have it, but you don't wanna get it wrong and say that you do. So this ensures his approach ensures that you get it. Right. It's wild. Fascinating stuff.  [00:15:34] Tony Arsenal: Yeah, and I would think actually, you know, there's probably, there's other mechanisms as well where they would, where they would sort of screen out. People that shouldn't be tested or help identify false negatives, false positives. Um, but yeah, that's, that's interesting. I probably won't read that book, but it sounds like an interesting read. I just don't have a lot of room on my A TBR shelf.  [00:15:55] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, listen. That, that's fair.  [00:15:57] Goodreads DNF Update [00:15:57] Jesse Schwamb: By the way, here's like a, a side affirmation. I think you and I both share speaking like books and cataloging books. If you use Good Reads, good Reads. Right. Finally adding a list of the Do Not Did Not Finish book. That's fantastic. This, this might be an example for some people, so pick it up and even if you don't have a place for it, guess where you can put it on the did not finish list. Yeah. Good Reads.  [00:16:16] Tony Arsenal: That's finally, that's one of those like, like why didn't they add that 15 years ago? Kind of an updates and you get the email and they're like, we're so excited to introduce the did Not Finish thing. And we're like, yeah. Like of course. Like, duh. It's likes, like, we're proud to introduce that. Your keypad now has a zero on it.  [00:16:36] Jesse Schwamb: Right. So  [00:16:37] Tony Arsenal: yeah. I'm, I'm excited about the DNR, um, the DNF, um, I'm so excited. I can't even remember what it's called. Yeah. The shelf. But, uh, very, very useful. The DNR list  [00:16:47] Jesse Schwamb: is a diff it is a different list. Speaking of medical things, it's a different  [00:16:50] Tony Arsenal: list. Yeah. Yeah, that's definitely a different thing. Usually it's not a list. It's a list of one in most cases.  [00:16:56] Jesse Schwamb: Exactly,  [00:16:57] Tony Arsenal: yeah. You can't put other people on your  [00:17:00] Jesse Schwamb: DNR  [00:17:00] Tony Arsenal: This,  [00:17:00] Jesse Schwamb: I suppose. Yeah, I should clarify that. You can really, you can only really put yourself, or I suppose somebody for whom you have that kind of authority over on that list, but I was thinking that more from like a medical perspective, that somewhere there would be a database in which there might be a list of DNR. I don't know.  [00:17:15] Tony Arsenal: Yeah, maybe. I don't know. I'm not sure. Probably there was at some point, but I think with medical chart technology now, that's probably like a. A moot point. Yeah. They don't need to be able to like cross reference a master list anymore. They just look in the patient's electronic record. We're really like in the weeds here. You can tell it's been a while since I've, I've podcasted. I don't really remember how to do this.  [00:17:35] Jesse Schwamb: This is great.  [00:17:36] Segue to Matthew 20 [00:17:36] Jesse Schwamb: I think at this point we try to make some kind of awkward segue that is mildly successful. Again, probably has statistically like a 20 to 27% chance of being successful and really hitting the mark. Yeah. So do you have anything that's gonna move us into this?  [00:17:49] Tony Arsenal: Yeah, I mean, I feel like you've been podcasting for the last several weeks without me and I've been working hard and now I'm kind of coming in as Johnny come lately and we're gonna get paid the same amount so. Even though you've worked harder for longer and I'm coming in late to the game here. [00:18:03] Jesse Schwamb: Oh man. Ple loved ones. Please tell me you got that. Please tell me you got all of that. That's, that's what you show up for here. Yeah, that was  [00:18:10] Tony Arsenal: a deep cut.  [00:18:11] Jesse Schwamb: That, that was beautiful. And I think leads us right into Matthew 20. So I think we've got at least 16 verses to get through here. Maybe again, if we're gonna keep a statistical theme here, something about engineering and math, all that stuff, we'll let everybody else pick the over under and whether or not we're gonna get through this and how many verses that's going to be. But at this point, we might as well begin.  [00:18:32] Tony Arsenal: Yes. Yeah.  [00:18:33] Read the Parable [00:18:33] Tony Arsenal: I'll start by reading. Uh, we're here in Matthew chapter 20, the first 16 versus this is the parable of the laborers in the vineyard and it reads. For the Kingdom of Heaven is like a master of a house who went out early in the morning to hire laborer laborers for his vineyard. After agreeing with the laborers for a denarius a day, he sent them into the vineyard and going out about the third hour, he saw others standing idle in the marketplace. He said to them, you go into the vineyard too, and whatever is right, I will give you. So they went, going out again about the sixth hour and the ninth hour, he did the same. And about the 11th hour, he went out and found others standing. And he said to them, why do you stand here idle all day? They said to him, because no one has hired us. And he said to them, you go into the vineyard too. And when the evening came, the owner of the vineyard said to his foreman, call the laborers and pay them with their wages, beginning with the last up to the first. And when those hired about the 11th hour came, each of them received a denarius. Now, when those hired first came, they thought they would receive more, but each of them also received a denarius. And on receiving it, they grumbled at the master of the house saying, these last worked only one hour and you have made them equal to us who have borne the burden of the day and the scorching heat. And he replied to one of them, friend, I'm doing you no wrong. Did you not agree with me? For a denarius, take what belongs to you and go, I choose to give the last worker as I give to you. Am I not allowed to do what I choose with what belongs to me? Or do you beg, do you begrudge my generosity? So the last will be first and the first will be last. Now I just wanna head this off. I did bite my tongue earlier and I probably am lisping and this is like a running gag. We thought that we'd resolved it. Uh, so if you hear me stumble over my words a little bit, it's just, it's just the struggle bus today.  [00:20:24] Jesse Schwamb: Listen, this is the, these are like the real things we have to deal with when the podcasting, like the real threats, the real injuries. I appreciate you like working through it. Like you just get back up and you walk it off with your tongue.  [00:20:35] Tony Arsenal: Yeah, my, my, uh, my podcasting hiatus was actually just a recovery of the last time I bit my tongue. I just needed a couple weeks to, no, I'm just kidding.  [00:20:43] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, we didn't wanna say.  [00:20:44] Tony Arsenal: Yeah.  [00:20:44] Kingdom Fairness and Grumbling [00:20:44] Tony Arsenal: So, Jesse, this is a, this is a parable that follows right on the heels, um, of kind of everything we've been talking about. And I think as we go through these parables and we look at them and we, we sort of pick them up and we look at the different facets of them, we sort of compare them to each other. We kind of, we kind of place them in their context really. They all have basically the same theme, right? Like they're all kind of circulating around these same topics. In this parable, it's circulating around this idea that, um, the, the owner of the vineyard, the master of the vineyard, is allowed to pay the people he employs whatever he wants. And as long as the payment that is due to an individual is received by that individual, then what other people receive and how they receive it and how hard they've worked and how hard they didn't work. That's really not germane to whether or not the, the laborer received a fair wage, uh, in the first place. Right. So we're, we're circling around themes of kind of fairness of, uh, of sort of resentment, I think for resentment at the master's generosity, which has been a big theme in previous ones. So this will be good for us to expand on. There's always little nuggets and kernels of things that are different from other parables, and then it's interesting to always see the ways that they kind of line up and, and tell us similar things.  [00:21:57] Jesse Schwamb: And this parable is unique to Matthew. Yeah. And it does function as this exposition or expansion of what Jesus says in chapter 19 where it says, but many who are first will be last. And the last first, which is repeated with this lovely like inverted emphasis in, at the end of this as you just read. So it belongs to this like interesting cluster of teacher teachings on discipleship and reward nature of the kingdom of God. And we've, we've spoken a lot about that. I think I was just reminded of this as you were, you were. Reading this, I feel like I remember this from some teaching, like this parable is kind of like a unique chiasm that's anchored on the landowner, sovereign generosity, which you brought up. And then there's the complaints of the first hired, which is mirrored by the late comers vulnerability. And then the landowners, two speeches which divide everything, kind of provide sandwich and the like, the theological climax. It does start in that really familiar way, which we've gotten accustomed to thinking about that introductory formula of the kingdom of heaven is like, and it signals of course that what follows is not gonna be a lesson in economics, but it's gonna use all this economic language as theological disclosure for how God's kingdom operates. And it starts again, like you said, with this master of the house, which to me seems. Pretty clearly like a, a God figure himself. Yeah. It's, that's kind of like a reoccurring mathian image. I think. So we've got this vineyard, which of course has all this symbolism, steeply rooted in Israel's covenant imagination and evokes God's people and his redemptive labor among them. So, man, now that I'm saying this all loud, is this thing like super pregnant with all kinds of like imagery and meaning?  [00:23:27] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah. And you know, it's, it's always good to remember, although parables have kind of some parables, most parables have sort of distinct discreet, symbolic elements where like, this represents that this represents that almost in an allegorical form. And, and in some cases, like purely in allegorical form, where it's like pilgrim's progress where each, each individual, each entity, each location each represents some sort of symbolic value. But we have to remember that when, when it says the parable of the kingdom of heaven is like the master of the house, it's not just like the master of the house. Yes. Right. It's like this whole scenario. Yes. It's, it's like. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's like everything that follows, it's like the entire, um, the entire paree here. That's what the Kingdom of Heaven is like. And one of the things that I think is striking about this is the kingdom of heaven is like some people complaining, like the people complaining about, some people are getting the same wage for less work. Um, that is part of what the Kingdom of Heaven is like. So I think we sometimes think of, of. The kingdom of heaven in, um, in the parables, we think of it as though God is just saying, this is what heaven is like. Right? Jesus Just saying like, this is what heaven is like, but the kingdom of heaven, that language is broader than what we normally would say, uh, is. We're thinking of heaven, like in the, the spiritual abode where God lives and the angels live. Um, where, where the departed saints are waiting for the resurrection, the kingdom of heaven is, is also inclusive of the, the sort of like. Time now between the victory of Christ on the cross and the consummation of the kingdom and the last day, the kingdom of heaven is inclusive of that time period too. And so this parable sort of situates us. I think it situates us in that pre consummated state where we're talking about what it's like to be a part of the kingdom of heaven here and now in our fallen state, but still solidly in the kingdom of heaven. 'cause there's not gonna be any complaining or grumbling about God's justice in God's fairness once we're in the final resurrected state. Right? Sure. Nobody's gonna be looking back and be like, yeah, you were way too gracious for that guy. Nobody's gonna be playing the Jonah part when we're all resurrected and we're worshiping for, for all time going forward. So this parable, because there are elements of. Dissatisfaction or elements of grumbling or complaining similar to like the, the parable of the prodigal son. There's this sun figure, the, the older sun figure who like is just a bonehead and doesn't get it. Well, that can't be talking about the people who are in the resurrection kingdom in the final kingdom. It's gotta be talking about people who are still awaiting the resurrection of the body and who are still not yet. Uh, and even in, in that parable, the, the older son doesn't even seem to be a figure who's, who's regener. Maybe he does become regener at some point in the future, but he doesn't seem to be. In, even in God's kingdom, he doesn't seem to be, even among God's people, he's consistently placed outside of the field. You don't even know he exists until Nick halfway through the parable. This is similar in that there are these workers, they're receiving their wages and some of them are, are outwardly dissatisfied and grumbling against the master of the house. Um, so I think if we think about parables as describing heaven rather than the kingdom of heaven, we can lose sight of, of what's actually being said in a lot of them. [00:26:50] Contracts Versus Grace [00:26:50] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, that's really good stuff because it strikes me that there are like, strangely, two groups here mentioned, I, I find this really kind of fascinating. We, I think we should talk about this, like the first group has like the most formal agreement, it's almost a legal contract, right? Various was like a standard day laborers wage sufficient mostly for subsistence. And so that detail seems theologically loaded to me. These workers relate to the landowner on the basis of a contract and what is owed. And so their claim at the end of the day will be exactly that. They're owed something and they know it, and that sets up Then this contrast with a second group, which is mostly all about grace because by the time we get to that third hour, like. Approximately like 9:00 AM then we're beginning this pattern repeated at the sixth and the ninth hours. And crucially, for those workers who go out, go out and get recruited, there's no wage that's specified for them. Only the promise of like whatever is right. And so they enter the vineyard, not on the basis of a contract, but on the basis of like the owner's word and character. And that seems to be like more of a picture of trust and not, not calculation. Yeah. Separate than like the first group. And that marketplace, idleness, as I read this, doesn't imply like laziness because verse seven clarifies like they just had not been hired. Right? They were overworked, they were unemployed. They were marginalized. So it does set up, like you said, everything you just talked about, about the kind of this, I like that. Like the Jonah, the Jonah whiners or whatever, like yeah, they want to complain about this, right? There are, and there are two, two separate groups that have kind of been brought into the fold, not under different terms or pretenses, but differently. [00:28:17] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. And I think too, bear's saying, um. Although there are elements of parables that are very, very directly applicable. Mm. We shouldn't read this as though every, every specific thing in the parable is not a parable. Right. Right. I think we can look at this and we can go, you know, you can read this in a way where, oh yeah, there's some people actually earn their, earn their wage, they earn ary. Right. It's a fair contract. And they work all day and he says, well, I'm gonna give you what's right, what you, what I owe you.  [00:28:45] God Owes Nothing [00:28:45] Tony Arsenal: The reality is God doesn't owe any of us anything. Right? Right. He owes us wrath and judgment and destruction. And so even, even the people who are the hard workers in the kingdom of God don't merit and never could merit, um, to, in a certain sense, in a strict sense and stick with me before you send your, your angry emails in a real strict sense. Even Adam couldn't merit. What was, well, it was guaranteed to him, according to the Covenant of Works, God had to condescend to make the covenant of works in order for Adam to have any sort of fruition of his blessedness. So there there's no natural obligation, strict obligation that God has to reward the work of his creatures because nothing they could do could ever be sufficient enough to obligate him. So the, the obligation of himself, and that's, this is where I do think this is strong, the fact that he obligates himself to these workers to give them their denarius after a hard day's work  [00:29:37] Jesse Schwamb: exactly  [00:29:37] Tony Arsenal: is itself. A covenantal, um, contractual, yes. But I actually read this as sort of a covenantal thing and the, the strange part is that the people don't recognize the sort of semi gracious covenantal nature of this. Yes.  [00:29:50] Grace In The Hiring [00:29:50] Tony Arsenal: I think, um, you know, there have been times when I, where I've been unemployed, um, not for very long. Now, I know some people face unemployment for a lot longer than I ever have, but I know there was times where I was, I was looking for work and someone would say to me like, Hey, you know, my, my, my lawn needs to be mowed. Could you come over and I'll, I'll give you 25 bucks to mow my lawn. It's a small lawn. Um. That's a gracious act in most cases. Right, right. Um, yes, I'm performing a task. Yes, they're paying me, but they didn't have to offer me that work. They didn't have to offer me that job, especially when it's something that like they could have accomplished themselves. They could have just done it themselves. Um, so I think there's an element of that here, that there's, there's a condescension of the master to these workers, to these laborers who are not part of his household. These are not, they're not slaves. These are not people who are part of his household, who are regular employees. These are people that he goes out into the market to, to find and to hire. And as we see some of, some of these mark, like the difference between the ones that are hired and the ones that are not hired until later in the day, the parable's not super clear about what it is. Just that they're not hired, it doesn't say the lazy ones were left there. The ones were exactly, that were ugly or had like limp legs or like just couldn't cut it. It just says like there was some that didn't get hired. Um, so there's a gracious element of this, and that makes the recognition at the end or the lack of recognition at the end by these full day laborers, the, the sort of like recognition, this, this entitled ness, um, that actually makes it all the worst. It's like the people who are outwardly attached to the covenant of grace. Um, I know all the Baptists in our, our group, their heads just exploded, but like are outwardly attached to the covenant of grace, um, who wanna somehow complain about like the graciousness of the covenant of grace that they're outwardly attached to it. It's just sort of like a form of, of theological and temporary insanity, I think. And that's what we see on full display here.  [00:31:40] Jesse Schwamb: It's definitely all grace. You're right that nobody's gonna get injustice right in this parable. And I think that's definitely exemplified the further out you go in this hiring order. [00:31:49] Eleventh Hour Mercy [00:31:49] Jesse Schwamb: So by the time you get to 5:00 PM which is pretty extraordinary, right? Only really like one hour remains before sense, right? It's the end of the working day.  [00:31:56] Tony Arsenal: Yeah.  [00:31:56] Jesse Schwamb: You can imagine like these guys who are being hired at the hour probably can contribute very little in the last hour of the day, right? But this owner goes out and hires them and no agreement is stated whatsoever. It's just pure grace. The landowner's question, why do you stand here idle all day? I think to your point, underlies their vulnerability. They were not idle by choice, presumably. And so I think we rightly here in this, like a foreshadowing of those who are called the late in redemptive history, Gentile sinners, the seemingly least qualified for kingdom membership. All of that I think is at play and it's all, it's getting this lovely setup of all these groups to help us understand what that kingdom is actually like.  [00:32:33] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah.  [00:32:35] Reverse Payroll Setup [00:32:35] Tony Arsenal: And then we have this, um, this is where the sort of dramatic tension turns, right? The end of the day comes and, uh, the master calls the, the people that he brought last, right? He calls the people who'd only been there for an hour and he starts to go down the list of the people who, the people who were last, and the people who came in next. And the people who came in next, right? And the workers who had contracted at the beginning of the day. Um, they're watching this happen and they're kind of going, oh, this is gonna be good. Like, that guy's only been here for an hour and he got a denarius. You know, the logic is probably like, I'm gonna get 12 denarius, like I'm gonna go 12 days worth of work. Um, because I think there's an assumption on their part, um, that the master's fair that he is, he's providing an equitable wage. Um, of course the master is fair, but he's providing an equitable wage that's commensurate with the work delivered. A delivered, delivered, right? And that, that's the key to this parable.  [00:33:26] Merit Mindset Exposed [00:33:26] Tony Arsenal: I think the expectation that God. Helps those who help themselves. Right? God rewards those who put in the hard work. God. God provides blessing or salvation according to the merit provided by the one who's being saved. That perspective is what's on full display here. Yes. By the people who are, uh, the ones who contracted for the full day. They're not thinking about the covenant that they have with this person or the contract they have with this person. They're not thinking about the fact that they agreed to work for the day in order to earn a day's wage. They're thinking about how this actually is gonna work out great in their favor. They're looking at this as a strictly merit-based kind of a, a thing. And you would think that like when the, the one hour people come in, they get a denarius, and then the three hour people come in and they get a denarius. You'd think they would pick up on it at some point, but then in the course of the payroll, it doesn't seem that they do. They still get to the bottom of the list and think they're gonna get more compared to the other people who all got the same.  [00:34:22] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, that display piece is critical to this. It is like complete setup. Like you can imagine he, the landowner calling everybody together at the end of the day and they're all standing around. Some of them are exhausted because they've again born all their work in the heat of the day on their backs. They're tired, they're dirty, maybe they're exhausted. And he starts in this reverse order. And by the way, we should note that there is something here that's beautiful in that the law, the landowner is law abiding because right evening payment is mandated in the Torah. So we see all this taking place as to fulfill the law in some ways. But the reversal of the order that last of first is like such deliberative and good narrative storytelling and staging, isn't it? 'cause it ensures that the first hired workers are going to witness the payment of those who work the least. And if without that order, if you just did it the other way around, the more a crisis of the parable disc like completely goes away.  [00:35:10] Tony Arsenal: Yeah.  [00:35:10] Jesse Schwamb: So this execution of the payment at the owner's will, it just shows that he has. He's completely independent. His sovereignty belong. The sovereignty belongs to the master alone. And so this 11th hour workers receiving a full day's wage for one hour of work, that's like an act of sheer generosity. It's not proportional justice. And I think as reform, people, maybe all of us at some point have had this conversation about predestination and justice and mercy. And again, really I think putting a crowbar between this idea that nobody is receiving injustice, but some are receiving mercy and grace. And here these first hired workers seeing this form, like you said, this expectation that they're gonna receive more, like you said, where that came from. Yeah, it's just them, right? It's purely manufactured in their own reasoning. It's not anchored in the covenantal promise and certainly not witnessed in the grace that they should be receive, like perceiving as the payments get doled out, like sequentially moving in their reverse order toward those who have worked the longest. But their expectation reveals that they have fundamentally misread like the landowner's character. They're still operating in the register of a contract and not grace.  [00:36:16] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. And you know, I think to sort of lock this covenant covenantal frame and sort of like lack of recognition of the covenant into place too, when you look at the language of this parable, um, and especially kind of what it's following up on, it's coming on the heels of this interaction with this rich, rich young ruler who comes in and he thinks that he's gonna earn eternal life by keeping the commandments. Um, and, and he, he has this outward sense or this outward display of pty. He's calling Jesus good. He's saying he, you know, he keeps the commandments, Jesus doesn't even disagree with him actually, that he has connect. Yes. You know, I think it's implied that, well, of course you haven't, but he, he still is graciously trying to like, convince this guy, no, you actually need to abandon your self righteousness and, and pursue and follow me. Um. But this is a parable where like other people are listening, right? There's other witnesses. This isn't like the rich young ruler came to him in the middle of the night, like Nicodemus. This is something that's happened on PO on in the public. So we can anticipate that the Pharisees and the Sadducees and the scribes and the lawyers were all aware of this. They may have been there, but they were at least aware of this happening. And I think there's some language in here that is actually directed at those people.  [00:37:30] Grumbling As Accusation [00:37:30] Tony Arsenal: And, and here's where it comes in, is you get to verse, um, we'll start reading again at verse nine. It says, when those hired about the 11th hour came, each of them received a denarius. Now, when those hired first came, so we're referring to the people who are hired at the beginning of the day. Now, when those who were hired first came, they thought they would receive more, but each of them also received a denarius and on receiving it, right? So this is as, this is, um, uh, just unbelievable as they're receiving the denarius on receiving it, they grumbled at the master of the house. Now, just the way that I read that and said the word grumbled tells you that that word is really important here. Yes. If you look at this Greek word. And you compare it to the, the word, the usage of this word in the, the, um, Sept. Yes. Which of course is the Greek translation of the Old Testament. This word most commonly appears in the wilderness wandering accounts. [00:38:22] Jesse Schwamb: Yes.  [00:38:23] Tony Arsenal: Right. And the, the primary sin of the Israelites during the wilderness wandering was grumbling against the Lord. And this grumbling against the Lord in that context is not just a general complaining, right. It's not just like a, a sort of like a, a general dissatisfaction or like murmuring. This isn't like water cooler frustration about your boss. The grumbling in the Old Testament in this context is a covenantal accusation, right. So this is tied to the, the accounts where Moses first is told to strike the rock, and he does so when the water comes out, and then second is told to speak to the rock, but he strikes it. I won't go into all the details, but the scene that's being, being displayed there is the people come, they accuse the Lord of abandoning them into the wilderness. And this scene where Moses is set up on the rock and he strikes the rock, that scene is a judicial scene. The people have filed a covenant accusation against the Lord, and in reality, it's the people who have been unfaithful. But the Lord standing in the place of the rock is the one who is struck, right? Jesus was the rock in the wilderness from which the water came. Paul says that in First Corinthians, right? So this language of grumbling in this is not just, they're not just complaining about the fact that they didn't get what they thought they were going to, they're questioning the veracity of the covenant that was made. So they're, they're still locked into this merit-based. This merit-based idea even more than it seemed at first, right? There's a logic to the idea that like, oh, if the, the master is actually paying a wage of one denarius for per hour, like there's a logic to that. But it's not just that they're saying, and this is, this explains the response of the master. It's not just that they're saying like, Hey, wait a second, like the wage rate that you're paying is not right. They're saying you have violated the terms of our covenant in the way that you have paid us. 'cause it's upon receiving it that they complain or they grumble and the master says more or less like, Hey. You agreed with me for one Denarius, I'm giving you what you've earned. I'm giving you what you agreed on. Why don't you take it and go. So the answer is not to try to justify why he is free to pay these other people more, or why he's free to pay these people a perceived less. The answer is, again, they're complaining against the covenant. He is bringing it back to the covenant saying, well, here's what the covenant relationship was. You work for the day. I give you Denarius. We're square here, we're on the same page. We've fulfilled our covenant obligations, and you've received your reward for that. So I, I think that's another thing we have to lock in here is this is not just a general idea of like unfairness that's being presented. This is not just a general idea that people are saying the master of the house is unfair. They're saying he's covenantal. Unfaithful. Right? That's a pretty big accusation.  [00:41:09] Jesse Schwamb: Yeah, that is, thank you by the way, for completely stealing the whole tugen thing from me. Like I was just going hot to Tugen to find that reference. And now all I can do is add to it. So that is from at least one of those occasions, a number 16, and I just wanna read the verse. This is 16 six. So Moses and Aaron said to all the sons of Israel at evening, you will know that Yahweh has brought you outta the land of Egypt. And in the morning you will see the glory of Yahweh for he hears your grumblings against Yahweh. And what we are that you grumble against us. So I'm totally with you. This is not subtle. The workers first complaint here, the first workers' complaint is like theologically serious. Uh, I think that's what you're hitting us on. Like it charges the owner with injustice. Right. And as I read it, the grievance has like two layers or two parts, I would say. One is this comparative part, which is basically saying, you made us equal to them. Right? And the second be like a meritorious part, they have worked harder and in worse conditions. And that's why they say things like, it's, it's all inflammatory language, isn't it? Like the scorching heat emphasizes like the real bodily cost and their complaint. I think if we're honest, it's not irrational, but it's spiritually revealing at least because Right, they believe their greater effort, mayors greater reward and they resent that grace shown to others. So like you said, they're bringing forward a very serious grievance and it's, it's not just like, Hey, we think maybe could you give us a bonus? Right. But that is a matter of faithfulness. And in fact, like as I'm looking at this tugen here, shout out to logos Bible software. And I'm saying that that verb that we're talking about in Exodus 16 is in the imperfect tense. So this is, they kept on grumbling and it is like an an echo of Israel's murmuring in the wilderness, which I presume like Matthew certainly had intentionally used there or had that view in part casting these workers as the same types of those who relate to God through entitlement rather than gratitude. So it's like insults upon insult here, but it is to emphasize this fact that it's no small accusation, it's not subtle, it's meant to be in your face. They're coming in hot with this and they're making a big deal about it.  [00:43:16] Tony Arsenal: Yeah, and again, I think like underscoring the covenantal nature of this is so key. And I think, you know, when we look at this, we really have to land that this is not just saying. Your wage structure is not right. 'cause and, and we gotta remember, they weren't there when the master went and made this bargain, or, you know, brought these other workers into the vineyard. They weren't there to hear what covenant or contract he did or didn't make. And as we've commented, they didn't, he didn't even make a covenant with them. He basically just said, I'm gonna put you to work and I'll pay you what's fair. I'll pay you what's right. Um, and they went, okay, you need the work and thank you. Like, I think, I think that's kind of like the, the scene here is they're standing there. They recognize they're not gonna get a wage for the day, especially these ones that he's coming in at the 11th hour, they're not gonna get a wage for the day. And as you said, these are subsistence workers. Right. These are people that if you don't get a wage, and this is the, the grounding of the Old Testament, um, the Old Testament command of, of paying at the end of the day is that if they don't get their wage, they're not gonna eat. They're not gonna have food, they're not gonna have the money they need to survive. Um, so he comes in and he basically says like. You don't have a job that's not gonna be good for you. I'll take care of you. I'll, I'll give you a job and I'll take care of you. And the ones who are complaining and grumbling, they have no line of sight to that process. That, that's right. They make a lot of assumptions about the, and this is, goes back to, um. The parable of the talents, which we haven't really talked about yet. The, the, there's a lot of assumptions about the nature of this master that the, the contracted or covenanted day laborers are making that don't turn out to be accurate. Right. They, they assume that he's working, as you've said, that he's working on this one-to-one, you know, quid pro quo. You do this, I do that kind of a, a methodology and he's actually operating on a basis of a much more. Basic, uh, grace principle. Uh, and again, even, even the principle of hiring these original workers and covenanting with them is gracious in the sense that he didn't have to hire them. Right. So, so all along the way they're, they're, it's like the epitome of looking a gift horse in the mouth.  [00:45:24] Jesse Schwamb: Yes.  [00:45:24] Tony Arsenal: They've been hired, and so yes, it is right for them to expect their, um, to expect their wage, whatever that wage might be. But they, they are misinterpreting the idea of what the wages are and how the wages are to be delivered. They're, they're applying, this is actually a lot like job's, friends, right? Their, their logic is not actually all that bad, but they have, they have missing parts of the picture that makes the logic. Apply differently in this particular situation. They think that this, this master works on a strict merit-based. You do X amount of work, you receive X amount of money. And this master is actually more functioning on this covenantal principle of, I'm gonna pay you what's right, regardless of what, what work you've done, which, what work is actually owed to you. And the master makes these, this agreement with these other workers to just say, go into the vineyard and then when the evening comes, I'll pay you. Right. Well, he intended to pay them what they needed to survive, regardless of how much work they provided. Right? So they're all, even though there's a formal contract to say these, this group works for the whole day and this group, you know, and, and they receive one day's labor, at the end of the day, he's graciously providing another day of survival for all of these people, for the work that they're, they're putting forward regardless of how much they actually contribute to his bottom line. [00:46:41] Owner Defends The Covenant [00:46:41] Jesse Schwamb: And we see that in verse 13, where the landowner gives his defense, you know, it says. He and he replied, friends, I'm doing you no wrong. Did you not agree with me for Denarius? Now the address, because now I'm deep in the Greek Tony. Here we go. So the address I'm seeing in, uh, again, shout out to Locus Bible software, it, this use of friend is not like the warm fellows, but like a more formal or distance term of address. It's used elsewhere in Matthew. But I think the point here is that the owner's first line of defense is this contractual point, which you're saying. I have not wronged you. He's kept his agreement precisely. No injustice has been done. And that's crucial. The owner doesn't re appreciate justice. He actually fulfills it. He obligates himself and he fulfills that obligation. And what the worker receives is exactly what was promised and exactly what is due. And so by the time he gets to verse 14 where he says, take what belongs to you, and go, I choose to give to this last worker as I give to you here. I think this is like the theological beating hide of this whole bad boy. Yeah.  [00:47:37] Jesse Schwamb: The landowner explicitly invokes his will, his sovereign freedom to do and to give as he pleases, which is exactly how God behaves. It's not a negation of justice, but this declaration of something beyond justice, it is grace. He exercises his freedom and generosity to those who had no claim, and the command, take what belongs to you and go is, is kind of like a world dismissal, like, like you were saying. Yeah. We're in the courtroom. He's like, I, I've ruled on this already. Like, bring Brian, bring your grievance. Here's my ruling. Take what you have and go. Their grumbling has revealed that they're not celebrating the kingdom. They're actually grieving it. So yeah, you know, I think original invocation of like Jonah is right on the money. It's basically like, are are you mad enough? Yeah, I'm mad enough to die. Like, how dare you give me, give me this great shade and then take it away from me. Yeah. And in some ways this is even worse because what they have been given has been that were promised to them, was given to them, and they get to retain and God says, go, or the landowner as God says, go now and take what is yours. Take what I've given to you graciously. But your point that like what supersedes that, the antecedent to all of that is still God's covenant keeping, covenant making promise, making, right? That sets the whole thing up. But I love this idea that, you know, I will choose, it's my desire, it's language of divine volition. And of course the reform theology, this single verb resonates with the entire doctrine of election. It's God's free, sovereign, and gracious will to bestow blessing without reference to merit, like praise his name.  [00:49:00] Tony Arsenal: Yeah. Yeah. And then we come to kind of the close of this parable, right? And this is, this reall

Brian Bailey Show 4-14-26 Roy Tesh, Damon Magazu, Kevin Monroe, Andrew Bayes, Hunter Mackay, Tarron Williams by Pirate Radio

Episode: 2864 The theorem of Reverend Bayes.  Today, let's talk about uncertainty and an 18th century Presbyterian minister.

AI is collapsing the silos between design and engineering. In this episode, Carlos Gonzalez de Villaumbrosia, CEO at Product School, sits down with Ed Bayes (Design Lead, OpenAI) and Matt Colyer (Product Director, Figma) to discuss their groundbreaking integration that enables a seamless round-trip workflow from code to canvas.Matt Colyer walks us through a step-by-step demo of the new code to canvas and right to Figma capabilities. You'll see exactly how OpenAI's Codex and Figma's Plugin API allow builders to move fluidly between development and design environments, using AI agents to update design systems and iterate faster than ever before.What you'll learn:Step-by-step demo: Moving from a code component in Codex to a live Figma design.How the round-trip workflow eliminates lossy handoffs between designers and devs.Strategies for using AI agents to update design libraries autonomously.The impact of Model Context Protocol (MCP) on product team interoperability.Key takeaways:Velocity as a Moat: How AI-native tools are accelerating the speed of prototyping.The Evolving PM Role: Why curiosity is now more critical than technical hurdles.Human Judgment: Why AI increases the premium on high-level design taste.Credits:Host: Carlos Gonzalez de VillaumbrosiaGuests: Ed Bayes and Matt ColyerSocial Links:Find out more about Product School hereFollow our Podcast on TikTok hereFollow Product School on LinkedIn here

 This is the 260th episode of my podcast, 'Soccernostalgia Talk Podcast'.  For this episode, I interview English Podcaster Mr. Chris Bayes, as we discuss the Kenny Dalglish era as Liverpool FC Manager (1985-1991).   Mr. Bayes' podcast is called, ‘The Way We See Sport, The Way We See Life'.   For any questions/comments, you may contact us: You may also contact me on this blog, on twitter @sp1873 and on facebook under Soccernostalgia. https://linktr.ee/sp1873  Mr. Paul Whittle, @1888letter on twitter and https://the1888letter.com/contact/ https://linktr.ee/BeforeThePremierLeague  You may also follow the podcast on spotify and Apple podcasts all under ‘Soccernostalgia Talk Podcast' Please leave a review, rate and subscribe if you like the podcast. Mr. Bayes' contact info: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/chris.bayes.77 Mr. Bayes' Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3LtaRpOYv6Ll3d8md7MUqH  Listen on Spotify / Apple Podcasts:  https://open.spotify.com/episode/23QPjYvlDMKYSe4H494roA?si=8DRC48xoTiCNcaiS_AUGlg&nd=1&dlsi=e954cfbe6d6b4480https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/soccernostalgia-talk-podcast-episode-147-interview/id1601074369?i=1000757157754 Youtube Link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ainphbl6ieM Blog Link:  https://soccernostalgia.blogspot.com/2026/03/soccernostalgia-talk-podcast-episode_24.htmlSupport the show

Rich Bayes, Product Management Leader at Cisco, spoke with Moshe Beauford of Technology Reseller News, during the Enterprise Connect conference about Cisco's latest collaboration device innovations and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the meeting experience. Bayes discussed Cisco's newest generation of collaboration hardware, including updates to its Desk Pro platform and advanced camera technologies designed to improve hybrid meetings. These devices incorporate AI-powered capabilities such as dynamic camera framing and intelligent speaker tracking to create a more natural meeting experience for both in-room and remote participants. “We're using AI to make meetings feel more natural, so people in the room and people joining remotely have the same experience,” Bayes said. A key focus for Cisco is integrating intelligent video and audio technologies directly into meeting devices. By embedding AI features into hardware, organizations can automatically optimize camera views, enhance audio clarity, and adapt to changing meeting environments without requiring complex manual configuration. The discussion also highlighted how enterprises are investing in higher-quality collaboration spaces as hybrid work becomes permanent. Modern meeting rooms must support distributed teams while maintaining consistent user experiences across different locations and devices. As organizations gathered at Enterprise Connect to evaluate the next generation of enterprise collaboration technologies, Cisco demonstrated how AI-powered meeting devices are becoming an essential component of modern workplace communication strategies. Learn more about Cisco: https://www.cisco.com/

What happens when one of the world's largest industrial fishing fleets operates alongside small coastal communities that depend on the same fish to survive?In Alaska, trawl fisheries—especially those targeting pollock—play a major role in the global seafood supply. But they also raise major questions about their impact, including bycatch, ecosystem impacts, and who really benefits from the fish pulled from these waters.That's why in episode 215 of the Outdoor Minimalist podcast, we are discussing the current state of trawling in Alaska.To help us understand the issue, we're joined by David Bayes, a lifelong Alaskan and charter fishing captain who founded DeepStrike Sportfishing in Homer in 2003. With a background in biological sciences and decades on the water, David has served as president of the Alaska Charter Association and has been actively involved in fisheries management discussions across the state.Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/outdoor.minimalist.book/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.theoutdoorminimalist.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@theoutdoorminimalistBuy Me a Coffee: ⁠⁠⁠https://buymeacoffee.com/outdoorminimalist⁠⁠⁠Listener Survey: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://forms.gle/jd8UCN2LL3AQst976⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------------------Episode ResourcesDeepStrike: https://www.deepstrikeak.com/our-fishing-storyOcean with David Attenborough: https://silverbackfilms.tv/shows/oceanwithdavidattenborough/Must Read Alaska: https://mustreadalaska.com/trawl-bycatch-understanding-the-serious-harm-to-alaska-and-the-possible-solutions/

PRL 3-16-26 Mack McCarthy, NuBlue Pirate Report, Shane Winkler, Nick Klos, Andrew Bayes by Pirate Radio

EPISODE 356 Former ECU Punter Andrew Bayes talks spring football on PRL by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 The Importance of Decision-Making in Data Science06:41 From Philosophy to Bayesian Statistics14:57 The Role of Soft Skills in Data Science18:19 Understanding Decision Theory Workflows22:43 Shifting Focus from Accuracy to Business Value26:23 Leveraging PyTensor for Optimization34:27 Applying Optimal Decision-Making in Industry40:06 Understanding Utility Functions in Regulation41:35 Introduction to Obeisance Decision Theory Workflow42:33 Exploring Price Elasticity and Demand45:54 Optimizing Profit through Bayesian Models51:12 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions57:18 Advanced Risk Management Techniques01:01:08 Practical Applications of Bayesian Decision-Making01:06:54 Future Directions in Bayesian Inference01:10:16 The Quest for Better Inference Algorithms01:15:01 Dinner with a Polymath: Herbert SimonThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/A Bayesian decision theory workflowDaniel's website, LinkedIn and GitHubLBS #124 State Space Models & Structural Time Series, with Jesse GrabowskiLBS #123 BART & The Future of Bayesian Tools, with Osvaldo MartinLBS #74 Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian SeyboldtLBS #76 The Past, Present & Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter

E se aquilo que você chama de verdade não passar de uma aposta confortável? Em 12 Homens e uma Sentença, onze homens têm certeza. Apenas um permite a dúvida entrar. E é nesse instante que algo muda. Neste episódio, vamos explorar o Teorema de Bayes, a ferramenta que explica como nossas crenças nascem, se fortalecem e, às vezes, precisam ser abandonadas. Você vai descobrir que pensar melhor não é ter mais certezas. É aprender a atualizá-las. Bem-vindo ao território onde suas verdades sagradas começam a ser questionadas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

บทความนี้วิเคราะห์ความสมเหตุสมผลของ การคาดการณ์การเติบโตของรายได้ ในกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรม ปัญญาประดิษฐ์ (AI)โดยใช้หลักการทางสถิติและข้อมูลเชิงประวัติศาสตร์ ผู้เขียนเสนอให้ใช้ ทฤษฎีของเบย์ (Bayes' Theorem) เพื่อปรับปรุงความเชื่อส่วนบุคคลด้วยข้อมูลที่เป็นกลาง เช่น อัตราพื้นฐาน (Base Rates) ของความสำเร็จในอดีต ข้อมูลระบุว่าเป้าหมายรายได้ของบริษัทอย่าง OpenAI และ Oracle Cloud นั้นมีความเป็นไปได้ยากมากเมื่อเทียบกับสถิติของบริษัทขนาดใหญ่ในช่วง 75 ปีที่ผ่านมา นอกจากนี้ แหล่งข้อมูลยังเตือนถึงความเสี่ยงใน การขยายโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน ซึ่งมักประสบปัญหาเรื่องงบประมาณและระยะเวลาที่ล่าช้า ในท้ายที่สุด การทุ่มงบประมาณมหาศาลของบริษัทเทคโนโลยีอาจเป็น กลยุทธ์เชิงรุก เพื่อกีดกันคู่แข่งรายใหม่ แม้จะยังมีความไม่แน่นอนสูงว่าการลงทุนเหล่านั้นจะสร้างผลกำไรที่คุ้มค่าได้จริงหรือไม่ก็ตาม

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 Exploring Generative AI and Scientific Modeling10:27 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Applications15:59 Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference19:22 Live Coding Session: Implementing Baseflow for SBI34:39 Analyzing Results and Diagnostics in Simulation-Based Inference46:18 Hierarchical Models and Amortized Bayesian Inference48:14 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Importance49:14 Diving into Diffusion Models: Basics and Mechanisms50:38 Forward and Backward Processes in Diffusion Models53:03 Learning the Score: Training Diffusion Models54:57 Inference with Diffusion Models: The Reverse Process57:36 Exploring Variants: Flow Matching and Consistency Models01:01:43 Benchmarking Different Models for Simulation-Based Inference01:06:41 Hierarchical Models and Their Applications in Inference01:14:25 Intervening in the Inference Process: Adding Constraints01:25:35 Summary of Key Concepts and Future DirectionsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:- Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!- Jonas's Diffusion for SBI Tutorial & Review (Paper & Code)- The BayesFlow Library- Jonas on LinkedIn- Jonas on GitHub- Further reading for more mathematical details: Holderrieth & Erives- 150 Fast Bayesian Deep Learning, with David Rügamer, Emanuel Sommer & Jakob Robnik- 107 Amortized Bayesian Inference with Deep Neural Networks, with Marvin Schmitt

AI coding agents are rapidly reshaping how software is built, reviewed, and maintained. As large language model capabilities continue to increase, the bottleneck in software development is shifting away from code generation toward planning, review, deployment, and coordination. This shift is driving a new class of agentic systems that operate inside constrained environments, reason over The post OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes appeared first on Software Engineering Daily.

AI coding agents are rapidly reshaping how software is built, reviewed, and maintained. As large language model capabilities continue to increase, the bottleneck in software development is shifting away from code generation toward planning, review, deployment, and coordination. This shift is driving a new class of agentic systems that operate inside constrained environments, reason over The post OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes appeared first on Software Engineering Daily.

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks04:26 Origin Stories of the Researchers09:46 Research Themes in Bayesian Neural Networks12:05 Making Bayesian Neural Networks Fast16:19 Microcanonical Langevin Sampler Explained22:57 Bottlenecks in Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks29:09 Practical Tools for Bayesian Neural Networks36:48 Trade-offs in Computational Efficiency and Posterior Fidelity40:13 Exploring High Dimensional Gaussians43:03 Practical Applications of Bayesian Deep Ensembles45:20 Comparing Bayesian Neural Networks with Standard Approaches50:03 Identifying Real-World Applications for Bayesian Methods57:44 Future of Bayesian Deep Learning at Scale01:05:56 The Evolution of Bayesian Inference Packages01:10:39 Vision for the Future of Bayesian StatisticsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!Links from the show:David Rügamer:* Website* Google Scholar* GitHubEmanuel Sommer:* Website* GitHub* Google ScholarJakob Robnik:* Google Scholar* GitHub* Microcanonical Langevin paper* LinkedIn

I was promised useful stories to assist me in a quest for justified belief. Instead I got a lesson in the limits of expertise. Unfortunately it was the author's expertise that was limited.  Knowing Our Limits By: Nathan Ballantyne Published: 2019 344 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? Regulative epistemology as opposed to descriptive epistemology. Put more simply, this is about how to find truth, as opposed to how to define truth. Though because the author recommends having very high standards, you may come away from the book thinking that there is no truth. That is not Ballantyne's intent, but most of his guidance revolves around less confidence rather than more confidence. There is some good stuff about tolerance, and the utility of doubt. And while I take issue with some of what he says on the subject of expertise, he covers the subject exhaustively and thought-provokingly. What authorial biases should I be aware of? Ballantyne isn't just interested in epistemology. He doesn't dabble in it. He is epistemology, or rather an epistemologist. Accordingly, even though it's apparent that he's trying really, really hard to not make the book overly academic, it's still pretty academic. For example: If an undefeated defeater for believing p were included in the evidence I don't have, then I (probably) would have heard of it by now. But I have not heard of it and the "silence" gives me reason to think that the unpossessed defeater is probably defeated. He's a big fan of the word defeater, and various constructions involving the word. In the course of a few pages he uses the term "defeater-defeater" seventeen times. Who should read this book? Epistemological collapse is the major crisis of our time, so on some level it's probably useful to read everything you can get your hands on. (Which was my big reason for reading it.) But, as much as I crap on Yudkowsky's Rationality: From AI to Zombies I'd probably read his chapters on Bayes' Theorem before reading this.  I heard about the book on Jesse Singal's substack. He was much more bullish on it. So you might read that if you're interested or on the fence. Specific thoughts: Lots of epistemic tools, Ballantyne really only covers one

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:11:37 The Hard Tech Era21:08 The Shift in Tech Work Culture28:49 AI's Impact on Job Security and Work Dynamics34:33 Adapting to AI: Skills for the Future45:56 Understanding AI Models and Their Limitations47:25 The Importance of Diversity in AI Development54:34 Positioning Technical Talent for Job Security57:58 Building Resilience in Uncertain Times01:06:33 Recognizing Diverse Ambitions in Career Progression01:12:51 The Role of Managers in Employee Retention01:26:55 Solving Complex Problems with AI and InnovationThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Alana's latest book (Use code BAYESIAN for 10% off + a free interview preparation download PDF)Alana's SubstackAlana on LinkedinAlana on InstagramThe Obstacle Is the Way – The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into TriumphCourage Is Calling – Fortune Favours the Brave

Paolo Alessandrini"Numeri che pensano"Le sei grandi idee matematiche dentro l'IAHoepli Editorewww.hoeplieditore.itIl libro racconta l'affascinante storia delle grandi idee matematiche, sviluppate nel corso dei secoli, che sono alla base della moderna intelligenza artificiale.L'autore si propone di rispondere a una domanda cruciale: come funziona il cuore dell'IA? Come fanno queste potenti idee matematiche a interagire tra di loro e dare vita a macchine capaci di imparare, prevedere, pensare?Attraverso una narrazione che alterna storia e matematica, Alessandrini rivela come grandi menti del passato, come Cardano, Cartesio, Newton, Bayes, Grassmann e Levi-Civita, abbiano gettato le fondamenta teoriche della moderna IA.Paolo Alessandrini: divulgatore scientifico, blogger e autore di saggi come “Matematica rock”, “Bestiario matematico” e “Matematica in campo”, “Matematica e sport” e “Numeri che pensano”. Insegna matematica in un istituto tecnico e liceo scientifico in provincia di Treviso. Collabora con numerose realtà attive nella didattica e nella comunicazione della matematica, e si occupa anche di formazione.www.paoloalessandrini.itDiventa un supporter di questo podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/il-posto-delle-parole--1487855/support.IL POSTO DELLE PAROLEascoltare fa pensarehttps://ilpostodelleparole.it/

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs. Get in touch and tell them you come from LBS!• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:13:16 Understanding Adaptive and Platform Trials25:25 Real-World Applications and Innovations in Trials34:11 Challenges in Implementing Bayesian Adaptive Trials42:09 The Birth of a Simulation Tool44:10 The Importance of Simulated Data48:36 Lessons from High-Stakes Trials52:53 Navigating Adaptive Trial Designs56:55 Communicating Complexity to Stakeholders01:02:29 The Future of Clinical Trials01:10:24 Skills for the Next Generation of StatisticiansThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Giuliano Cruz, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Matt Rosinski, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık, Suyog Chandramouli, Guillaume Berthon, Avenicio Baca, Spencer Boucher, Krzysztof Lechowski, Danimal, Jácint Juhász, Sander and Philippe.Links from the show:Berry ConsultantsScott's podcastLBS #45 Biostats & Clinical Trial Design, with Frank Harrell

Thanks to LMNT for sponsoring this video! Head to https://DrinkLMNT.com/FLO to get your free sample pack with any purchase. Susan Bayes is a passionate runner and advocate for finding joy in the sport. At 56 years old and a mother of three, Susan shares her inspiring journey from starting with Couch to 5K to achieving marathon success. She shares training strategies, community support, and the mental aspects of running.   Watch this full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0bYjtQ3iPqE      CHAPTERS: 0:00 - Running through Couch to 5K 0:45 - My Book "Running Breakthroughs" is available now!   1:28 - LMNT Sponsorship 2:26 - How she got into running and her personal journey 4:50 - Transition from 5K to half marathons 6:19 - Growing as a runner, exploring low heart rate training.  8:54 - Using running as a coping mechanism during tough times. 10:32 - Talk about joining a running club. 11:18 - Backyard challenges and ultra running. 14:40 - Change in approach to training and mindset. 24:40 - Pain versus discomfort during races. 28:01 - Balance nutrition and the importance of being kind to oneself 30:06 - Finding community in running. 32:47 - Competitive nature and Parkrun experiences. 35:10 - Advice for younger self and importance of community. 39:24 - Overcoming injuries and mental strategies in racing. 46:35 - Favorite races and experiences shared. 51:04 - Cold exposure experiences 1:00:32 - Tips for runners stuck in their journey. 1:02:35 - How to become a stronger, healthier, happier athlete. 1:03:28 - Important closing thoughts.    LINKS & TOOLS MENTIONED ► My new book Running Breakthroughs as Audio book, Printed Book and eBook: https://florisgierman.com/ ► More options to buy the book worldwide on Amazon: https://geni.us/running-breakthroughs  ► Our Personal Best Coaching Program: https://www.pbprogram.com/  ► YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/florisgierman ► Strava: https://www.strava.com/athletes/1329785  ► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/florisgierman  ► Extramilest: https://extramilest.com/  ► Path Projects: https://pathprojects.com/flo ► Podcast: https://extramilest.com/podcast/    Affiliate Disclosure: I may earn commissions if you purchase items via my affiliate links. "As an affiliate I earn from qualifying purchases." Affiliate links do not increase cost to you. Also, you do not need to use these links. You can also search for these same items in Amazon or on any search engine/shopping site of your choice and buy/research them that way.     ABOUT THE EXTRAMILEST SHOW: A podcast and YouTube channel where host Floris Gierman interviews world class athletes, coaches and health experts on the topic of how to become a stronger, healthier and happier athlete.     More info about our Personal Best Running Coaching Program can be found at https://www.pbprogram.com.      SUBSCRIBE and hit the bell to see new videos: https://bit.ly/Flo-YT

PRL 12-18-25 Zach Kaplan, Jeff Nadu, Greg Hudson, Andrew Bayes by Pirate Radio

EPISODE 275 ECU HOF Andrew Bayes talks Military Bowl & College Football Playoffs by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

Mer de Sicile, août 2024. Un super-yacht nommé Bayesian navigue dans la nuit quand une cellule orageuse éclate à l'horizon. À bord, Mike Lynch, le « Bill Gates britannique », qui vient tout juste de sortir d'un long bras de fer judiciaire avec les États-Unis. Quelques heures plus tard, le silence. Un naufrage éclair, qui soulève plus de questions qu'il n'apporte de réponses.Pour comprendre comment on s'est rendu là, on remonte la trajectoire d'un génie façonné par Cambridge, pis par une obsession : le théorème de Bayes. De Cambridge Neurodynamics à Autonomy, des négos avec HP aux débuts de Darktrace, Lynch a bâti des machines capables de faire parler le chaos : courriels, images, empreintes, signaux faibles. Entre l'État, le renseignement pis le monde des affaires, il a navigué dans une zone grise où les algorithmes ont parfois plus de poids que les mots. C'est ça, notre angle Distorsion : des histoires étranges de l'ère numérique, là où la donnée finit par ressembler à un destin.Au cœur de l'épisode, il y a une séquence troublante de 48 heures, une tempête « statistiquement improbable », pis une enquête italienne qui hésite entre météo extrême, négligence humaine… et d'autres pistes que certains aimeraient peut-être mieux pas trop brasser. Accident, opération discrète ou juste une bad luck poussée au maximum? On recolle les morceaux sans virer complotiste, on écoute les témoins, on suit les chiffres… pis on laisse une place à ce frisson qu'aucun modèle peut vraiment prévoir. Bonne écoute.Découvrez l'exposition immersive Sherlock Holmes : Menez l'enquête présentée par Pointe-à-Callière à Montréal ! Achetez vos billets dès maintenant juste ici : https://bit.ly/expo-distorsionnordvpn.com/distorsion, Rabais exclusif sur ton abonnement + plus 4 mois gratuits! ÉrosEt Compagnie : 15% de rabais avec le code DistorsionPatreonSite WebBoutique Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn't just a background task for him – he's taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He's here to tell us about the things he's done and give […]

Everyone loves a good Renaissance man or woman, but it's hard to do it all with tenacity and verve. There's also the constant balance between perfectionism and dilettantism — how long should you keep refining a project versus just bringing it to a close? For those of us prone to procrastination, even asking that question might prompt a delay.That's why I am excited to bring my good friend Uri Bram on the podcast this week. He's written a book on Bayes' theory, has been a publisher of a very successful online newsletter, has hosted olfactory gallery parties, and he just published his first party game called Person Do Thing inspired by trying to order vegan food at a restaurant in Thailand. In short, he's constantly experimenting with new forms of media and ways to bring people together.Together with host Danny Crichton, we talk about perfectionism and whether it helps or hurts creativity; Uri's experience playing Riskgaming; his new game; communications and the curse of knowledge problems; using Amazon as a social networking tool; and his recent viral blog post, “21 Facts About Hosting Parties.”

Sign up for Alex's first live cohort, about Hierarchical Model building!Get 25% off "Building AI Applications for Data Scientists and Software Engineers"Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Why GPs still matter: Gaussian Processes remain a go-to for function estimation, active learning, and experimental design – especially when calibrated uncertainty is non-negotiable.Scaling GP inference: Variational methods with inducing points (as in GPflow) make GPs practical on larger datasets without throwing away principled Bayes.MCMC in practice: Clever parameterizations and gradient-based samplers tighten mixing and efficiency; use MCMC when you need gold-standard posteriors.Bayesian deep learning, pragmatically: Stochastic-gradient training and approximate posteriors bring Bayesian ideas to neural networks at scale.Uncertainty that ships: Monte Carlo dropout and related tricks provide fast, usable uncertainty – even if they're approximations.Model complexity ≠ model quality: Understanding capacity, priors, and inductive bias is key to getting trustworthy predictions.Deep Gaussian Processes: Layered GPs offer flexibility for complex functions, with clear trade-offs in interpretability and compute.Generative models through a Bayesian lens: GANs and friends benefit from explicit priors and uncertainty – useful for safety and downstream decisions.Tooling that matters: Frameworks like GPflow lower the friction from idea to implementation, encouraging reproducible, well-tested modeling.Where we're headed: The future of ML is uncertainty-aware by default – integrating UQ tightly into optimization, design, and deployment.Chapters:08:44 Function Estimation and Bayesian Deep Learning10:41 Understanding Deep Gaussian Processes25:17 Choosing Between Deep GPs and Neural Networks32:01 Interpretability and Practical Tools for GPs43:52 Variational Methods in Gaussian Processes54:44 Deep Neural Networks and Bayesian Inference01:06:13 The Future of Bayesian Deep Learning01:12:28 Advice for Aspiring Researchers

Has the internet damaged kids' brains, Dave Murray's forecast, and Dr. Matt Bayes from Bayes Sports Medicine!- h3 full 1964 Mon, 27 Oct 2025 21:20:09 +0000 l4urDA0DEZw51rYBh52pMrRTxeuNpkoW comedy,religion & spirituality,society & culture,news,government The Dave Glover Show comedy,religion & spirituality,society & culture,news,government Has the internet damaged kids' brains, Dave Murray's forecast, and Dr. Matt Bayes from Bayes Sports Medicine!- h3 The Dave Glover Show has been driving St. Louis home for over 20 years. Unafraid to discuss virtually any topic, you'll hear Dave and crew's unique perspective on current events, news and politics, and anything and everything in between. © 2025 Audacy, Inc. Comedy Religion & Spirituality Society & Culture News Government False

This episode of The New Abnormal podcast features Andre Spicer, Dean and Professor at Bayes Business School, City St George's, University of London. He's an expert in the fields of organisational behaviour, leadership and corporate social responsibility, and is the founding director of ETHOS: The Centre for Responsible Enterprise at Bayes. Andre is the author of a number of successful books, has co-authored numerous reports and written columns for the Guardian, Financial Times, New Statesman, and The Conversation. However, in this episode, we mainly focus on his latest book 'The Art of Less: How to Focus on What Really Matters at Work'.In it, Andre explains how "organisational sludge" gets in the way of performance, and what can be done about it. An issue which I'm sure all listeners will recognise as something that leaves us feeling overwhelmed but underproductive.So, listen to this essential guide on how to achieve more by doing less...

PRL 10-22-25 Andrew Bayes, Donnell Coley, Zach Agnos, Rahjai Harris by Pirate Radio

EPISODE 223 ECU Color Analyst Andrew Bayes gives ECU football mid-season grades by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

PRL 8-27-25 Ken Watlington, Donnell Coley, Holton Ahlers, Andrew Bayes, Justin Hardy by Pirate Radio

EPISODE 175 Andrew Bayes previews the ECU/NC State game & 2025 Bud Light Pregame Tailgate Open debuts by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

As a data science professional, I know firsthand how challenging it can be to navigate the job market and prepare for interviews. That's why I started this podcast - to provide valuable resources to those looking to break into the field of data science.Running a podcast takes a lot of time and effort, so please consider supporting us. Become a Paid Subscriber: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/data-science-interview/subscribe⁠

Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons

Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it's the precursor to glowfic!)

Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.

We just got a new paper that compares initial treatment with adenosine compared with diltiazem for the treatment of adults with SVT in the ED. Wouldn't it be great if it turned out that diltiazem was just as effective, if not more effective, as adenosine without the crappy feeling? Yeah, that'd be great, but what do we do with statistically insignificant results. Is there, perhaps, a way to save this “insignificant” paper? Fear not, Bayes is here! Yes, that's right, Dr. Jarvis is grabbing this new paper and diving straight back into that deep dark rabbit hole of Bayesian analysis. Citation:1.     Lee CA, Morrissey B, Chao K, Healy J, Ku K, Khan M, Kinteh E, Shedd A, Garrett J, Chou EH: Adenosine Versus Fixed-Dose Intravenous Bolus Diltiazem on Reversing Supraventricular Tachycardia in The Emergency Department: A Multi-Center Cohort Study. The Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2025;August 1;75:55–64. FAST25 | May 19-21, 2025 | Lexington, KY

In this Mini Motivation episode host Amelia Phillips chats to Brooke Campbell Bayes about how we can support someone going through a tough time. Brooke is going through her own MS journey, navigating a recent diagnosis along with having three young daughters, a busy life and being so young herself. Brooke gives her honest take on what helped her feel truly supported (and what didn't!), and sheds light on how to support someone going through a tough time, particularly right after a diagnosis. This can be such a sensitive time, with many of us not feeling equipped to ask the right questions yet wanting to show up in a way that is most helpful for our loved one. About the guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes is the cohost of iChronic, where she and Monty Dimond offer a refreshingly honest and humorous look at life with chronic illness (If you don't laugh you'll cry, they say). The podcast explores the daily realities of living with ongoing health conditions, aiming to help listeners feel seen, supported, and a little less alone. Follow Brooke on instagram: https://www.instagram.com/brookecampbellbayes/ Listen to Ichronic on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/show-and-tell/id957291724?i=1000699346220 Listen to Ichronic on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rTxBX2oj7q2Y0F2IIQzSW?si=c145253822ec4985 About the host: Amelia Phillips is an exercise scientist, nutritionist, and published researcher (BSc, MNut) with a career spanning 26 years in health. She is the co-founder of Vitality360, a functional health platform that helps people gain deep insights into their health and make targeted changes for lasting vitality.A respected media presenter, Amelia has been featured on Channel 9’s hit show Do You Want to Live Forever? and is dedicated to helping people build a life of energy, connection, and purpose at any age or stage of life.Instagram: @_amelia_phillipsHave a question? Email: ap@ameliaphillips.com.auFind out more at: www.ameliaphillips.com.auDiscover Vitality360: https://v360.health CREDITSHost: Amelia Phillips Guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes Audio Producer: Darren RothMusic: Matt Nicholich Production Partner: Nova Entertainment Pty Ltd Healthy Her acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the Land we have recorded this podcast on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informationSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cara A: -Actualización: Reunión en Madrid del 3 al 5 de Octubre, con Francis, Juan Carlos y Alberto (10:00) Carlos López Otín nombrado Marqués de Castillo de Lerés (17:30) -Paper de un autor ruso en 2011 sobre la señal Wow! (23:00) -Primeras imágenes del Vera Rubin Observatory (52:00) Este episodio continúa en la Cara B. Contertulios: Alberto Aparici, Borja Tosar, Héctor Socas. Imagen de portada realizada con Midjourney. Todos los comentarios vertidos durante la tertulia representan únicamente la opinión de quien los hace... y a veces ni eso (text copied to clipboard, press enter to continue)& C:/Python313/python.exe "c:/Users/mayra/OneDrive/Desktop/SEÑAL Y RUIDO/Programa/temas_tiempos.py" -Primeras imágenes del Vera Rubin Observatory (00:00) -Los exoplanetólogos sobreestiman las sigmas al hacer contrastes de hipótesis (32:20) -La estimación de la tasa de acreción y el espín de M87* (1:27:00) -Señales de los oyentes (1:53:00)

Este episodio es continuación de la Cara A. Contertulios: Alberto Aparici, Borja Tosar, Gastón Giribet, Francis Villatoro, Héctor Socas. Imagen de portada realizada con Midjourney. Todos los comentarios vertidos durante la tertulia representan únicamente la opinión de quien los hace... y a veces ni eso (text copied to clipboard, press enter to continue)& C:/Python313/python.exe

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds! Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting51:23 News1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick61:18:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/ Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjWant to work with my betting group?: john@goldenpants.comWant 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Train the Best. Change EMS.Howdy, y'all, I'm Dr Jeff Jarvis, and I'm the host of the EMS lighthouse project podcast, but I'm also the medical director for the new EMS system we're building in Fort Worth Texas. We are looking for an experienced critical care paramedic who is an effective and inspiring educator to lead the initial and continuing training and credentialing of a new team of Critical Care Paramedics who will be responding to our highest acuity calls. The salary is negotiable but starts between $65,000 and $80,000 a year for this office position. Whether y'all wear cowboy boots or Birkenstocks, Fort Worth can be a great place to live and work. So if you're ready to create a world-class EMS system and change the EMS world with us, give us a call at 817-953-3083, take care y'all.The next time you go to intubate a patient, should you give the sedation before the paralytic or the paralytic before the sedative? Does it matter? And what the hell does Bayes have to do with any of this? Dr Jarvis reviews a paper that uses Bayesian statistics to calculate the association between drug sequence and first attempt failure. Then he returns to Nerd Valley to talk about how to interpret 95% confidence intervals derived from frequentists statistics compared to 95% credible intervals that come from Bayesian statistics. Citations:1.     Catoire P, Driver B, Prekker ME, Freund Y: Effect of administration sequence of induction agents on first‐attempt failure during emergency intubation: A Bayesian analysis of a prospective cohort. Academic Emergency Medicine. 2025;February;32(2):123–9. 2.     Casey JD, Janz DR, Russell DW, Vonderhaar DJ, Joffe AM, Dischert KM, Brown RM, Zouk AN, Gulati S, Heideman BE, et al.: Bag-Mask Ventilation during Tracheal Intubation of Critically Ill Adults. N Engl J Med. 2019;February 28;380(9):811–21.3.     Greer A, Hewitt M, Khazaneh PT, Ergan B, Burry L, Semler MW, Rochwerg B, Sharif S: Ketamine Versus Etomidate for Rapid Sequence Intubation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials. Critical Care Medicine. 2025;February;53(2):e374–83.

A guest post by Brandon Hendrickson [Editor's note: I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Brandon Hendrickson, whose review of The Educated Mind won the 2023 contest, has taken me up on this and submitted this essay. He writes at The Lost Tools of Learning and will be at LessOnline this weekend, where he and Jack Despain Zhou aka TracingWoodgrains will be doing a live conversation about education.] I began my book review of a couple years back with a rather simple question: Could a new kind of school make the world rational? What followed, however, was a sprawling distillation of one scholar's answer that I believe still qualifies as “the longest thing anyone has submitted for an ACX contest”. Since then I've been diving into particulars, exploring how we use the insights I learned while writing it to start re-enchanting all the academic subjects from kindergarten to high school. But in the fun of all that, I fear I've lost touch with that original question. How, even in theory, could a method of education help all students become rational? It probably won't surprise you that I think part of the answer is Bayes' theorem. But the equation is famously prickly and off-putting: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/bayes-for-everyone

David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist He's also one of the cofounders … Continue reading →

We covered a paper in episode 81 that suggested treating atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular response in the field could lower mortality. But it also drops BP a bit. Could pretreating these patients with calcium lower the risk of hypotension? Dr Jarvis puts on his nerd hat and uses Bayesian analysis to assess a new randomized, placebo-controlled study that looked at just this thing. Why is he going off on this Bayes thing? Because he's been reading a couple of book on it and wanted to take it for a spin.  Tables:  Charts: Bayesian Distributions: Citation: 1.     Az A, Sogut O, Dogan Y, Akdemir T, Ergenc H, Umit TB, Celik AF, Armagan BN, Bilici E, Cakmak S: Reducing diltiazem-related hypotension in atrial fibrillation: Role of pretreatment intravenous calcium. The American Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2025;February;88:23–8.2.     Fornage LB, O'Neil C, Dowker SR, Wanta ER, Lewis RS, Brown LH: Prehospital Intervention Improves Outcomes for Patients Presenting in Atrial Fibrillation with Rapid Ventricular Response. Prehospital Emergency Care. doi: 10.1080/10903127.2023.2283885 (Epub ahead of print).3.     Kolkebeck T, Abbrescia K, Pfaff J, Glynn T, Ward JA: Calcium chloride before i.v. diltiazem in the management of atrial fibrillation. The Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2004;May 1;26(4):395–400.4.     Chivers T: Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World. Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2024.5.     McGrayne SB: The Theory That Would Not Die. how Bayes' Rule Cracked The Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines & Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy. New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 2011. FAST25 | May 19-21, 2025 | Lexington, KY

Mais um episódio da segunda temporada do Pipoca TdC!

The White House wants to hear from you regarding what it should do about AI safety. Now's your chance to spend a few minutes to make someone read your thoughts on the subject! Submissions are due by midnight EST on … Continue reading →