Podcasts about Bayes

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Best podcasts about Bayes

Latest podcast episodes about Bayes

Learning Bayesian Statistics
#152 A Bayesian decision theory workflow, with Daniel Saunders

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2026 79:18


• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 The Importance of Decision-Making in Data Science06:41 From Philosophy to Bayesian Statistics14:57 The Role of Soft Skills in Data Science18:19 Understanding Decision Theory Workflows22:43 Shifting Focus from Accuracy to Business Value26:23 Leveraging PyTensor for Optimization34:27 Applying Optimal Decision-Making in Industry40:06 Understanding Utility Functions in Regulation41:35 Introduction to Obeisance Decision Theory Workflow42:33 Exploring Price Elasticity and Demand45:54 Optimizing Profit through Bayesian Models51:12 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions57:18 Advanced Risk Management Techniques01:01:08 Practical Applications of Bayesian Decision-Making01:06:54 Future Directions in Bayesian Inference01:10:16 The Quest for Better Inference Algorithms01:15:01 Dinner with a Polymath: Herbert SimonThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/A Bayesian decision theory workflowDaniel's website, LinkedIn and GitHubLBS #124 State Space Models & Structural Time Series, with Jesse GrabowskiLBS #123 BART & The Future of Bayesian Tools, with Osvaldo MartinLBS #74 Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian SeyboldtLBS #76 The Past, Present & Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter

Café Brasil Podcast
Cafe Brasil Expresso 1018 - O teorema de Bayes - Você e as verdades sagradas

Café Brasil Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2026 21:35


E se aquilo que você chama de verdade não passar de uma aposta confortável? Em 12 Homens e uma Sentença, onze homens têm certeza. Apenas um permite a dúvida entrar. E é nesse instante que algo muda. Neste episódio, vamos explorar o Teorema de Bayes, a ferramenta que explica como nossas crenças nascem, se fortalecem e, às vezes, precisam ser abandonadas. Você vai descobrir que pensar melhor não é ter mais certezas. É aprender a atualizá-las. Bem-vindo ao território onde suas verdades sagradas começam a ser questionadas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

RISK ON บาย ดอกเตอร์โจ๊ก
ทฤษฎีเบส์และอัตราพื้นฐาน: พยากรณ์อนาคต

RISK ON บาย ดอกเตอร์โจ๊ก

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2026 16:35


บทความนี้วิเคราะห์ความสมเหตุสมผลของ การคาดการณ์การเติบโตของรายได้ ในกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรม ปัญญาประดิษฐ์ (AI)โดยใช้หลักการทางสถิติและข้อมูลเชิงประวัติศาสตร์ ผู้เขียนเสนอให้ใช้ ทฤษฎีของเบย์ (Bayes' Theorem) เพื่อปรับปรุงความเชื่อส่วนบุคคลด้วยข้อมูลที่เป็นกลาง เช่น อัตราพื้นฐาน (Base Rates) ของความสำเร็จในอดีต ข้อมูลระบุว่าเป้าหมายรายได้ของบริษัทอย่าง OpenAI และ Oracle Cloud นั้นมีความเป็นไปได้ยากมากเมื่อเทียบกับสถิติของบริษัทขนาดใหญ่ในช่วง 75 ปีที่ผ่านมา นอกจากนี้ แหล่งข้อมูลยังเตือนถึงความเสี่ยงใน การขยายโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน ซึ่งมักประสบปัญหาเรื่องงบประมาณและระยะเวลาที่ล่าช้า ในท้ายที่สุด การทุ่มงบประมาณมหาศาลของบริษัทเทคโนโลยีอาจเป็น กลยุทธ์เชิงรุก เพื่อกีดกันคู่แข่งรายใหม่ แม้จะยังมีความไม่แน่นอนสูงว่าการลงทุนเหล่านั้นจะสร้างผลกำไรที่คุ้มค่าได้จริงหรือไม่ก็ตาม

Learning Bayesian Statistics
151 Diffusion Models in Python, a Live Demo with Jonas Arruda

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2026 95:43


• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 Exploring Generative AI and Scientific Modeling10:27 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Applications15:59 Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference19:22 Live Coding Session: Implementing Baseflow for SBI34:39 Analyzing Results and Diagnostics in Simulation-Based Inference46:18 Hierarchical Models and Amortized Bayesian Inference48:14 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Importance49:14 Diving into Diffusion Models: Basics and Mechanisms50:38 Forward and Backward Processes in Diffusion Models53:03 Learning the Score: Training Diffusion Models54:57 Inference with Diffusion Models: The Reverse Process57:36 Exploring Variants: Flow Matching and Consistency Models01:01:43 Benchmarking Different Models for Simulation-Based Inference01:06:41 Hierarchical Models and Their Applications in Inference01:14:25 Intervening in the Inference Process: Adding Constraints01:25:35 Summary of Key Concepts and Future DirectionsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:- Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!- Jonas's Diffusion for SBI Tutorial & Review (Paper & Code)- The BayesFlow Library- Jonas on LinkedIn- Jonas on GitHub- Further reading for more mathematical details: Holderrieth & Erives- 150 Fast Bayesian Deep Learning, with David Rügamer, Emanuel Sommer & Jakob Robnik- 107 Amortized Bayesian Inference with Deep Neural Networks, with Marvin Schmitt

Software Engineering Daily
OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes

Software Engineering Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2026 50:10


AI coding agents are rapidly reshaping how software is built, reviewed, and maintained. As large language model capabilities continue to increase, the bottleneck in software development is shifting away from code generation toward planning, review, deployment, and coordination. This shift is driving a new class of agentic systems that operate inside constrained environments, reason over The post OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes appeared first on Software Engineering Daily.

ai openai codex thibault bayes software engineering daily
Podcast – Software Engineering Daily
OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes

Podcast – Software Engineering Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2026 50:10


AI coding agents are rapidly reshaping how software is built, reviewed, and maintained. As large language model capabilities continue to increase, the bottleneck in software development is shifting away from code generation toward planning, review, deployment, and coordination. This shift is driving a new class of agentic systems that operate inside constrained environments, reason over The post OpenAI and Codex with Thibault Sottiaux and Ed Bayes appeared first on Software Engineering Daily.

ai openai codex thibault bayes software engineering daily
Learning Bayesian Statistics
#150 Fast Bayesian Deep Learning, with David Rügamer, Emanuel Sommer & Jakob Robnik

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2026 80:27


• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks04:26 Origin Stories of the Researchers09:46 Research Themes in Bayesian Neural Networks12:05 Making Bayesian Neural Networks Fast16:19 Microcanonical Langevin Sampler Explained22:57 Bottlenecks in Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks29:09 Practical Tools for Bayesian Neural Networks36:48 Trade-offs in Computational Efficiency and Posterior Fidelity40:13 Exploring High Dimensional Gaussians43:03 Practical Applications of Bayesian Deep Ensembles45:20 Comparing Bayesian Neural Networks with Standard Approaches50:03 Identifying Real-World Applications for Bayesian Methods57:44 Future of Bayesian Deep Learning at Scale01:05:56 The Evolution of Bayesian Inference Packages01:10:39 Vision for the Future of Bayesian StatisticsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!Links from the show:David Rügamer:* Website* Google Scholar* GitHubEmanuel Sommer:* Website* GitHub* Google ScholarJakob Robnik:* Google Scholar* GitHub* Microcanonical Langevin paper* LinkedIn

We Are Not Saved
Knowing Our Limits - Epistemology Without Bayes

We Are Not Saved

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2026 9:55


I was promised useful stories to assist me in a quest for justified belief. Instead I got a lesson in the limits of expertise. Unfortunately it was the author's expertise that was limited.  Knowing Our Limits By: Nathan Ballantyne Published: 2019 344 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? Regulative epistemology as opposed to descriptive epistemology. Put more simply, this is about how to find truth, as opposed to how to define truth. Though because the author recommends having very high standards, you may come away from the book thinking that there is no truth. That is not Ballantyne's intent, but most of his guidance revolves around less confidence rather than more confidence. There is some good stuff about tolerance, and the utility of doubt. And while I take issue with some of what he says on the subject of expertise, he covers the subject exhaustively and thought-provokingly. What authorial biases should I be aware of? Ballantyne isn't just interested in epistemology. He doesn't dabble in it. He is epistemology, or rather an epistemologist. Accordingly, even though it's apparent that he's trying really, really hard to not make the book overly academic, it's still pretty academic. For example: If an undefeated defeater for believing p were included in the evidence I don't have, then I (probably) would have heard of it by now. But I have not heard of it and the "silence" gives me reason to think that the unpossessed defeater is probably defeated. He's a big fan of the word defeater, and various constructions involving the word. In the course of a few pages he uses the term "defeater-defeater" seventeen times. Who should read this book? Epistemological collapse is the major crisis of our time, so on some level it's probably useful to read everything you can get your hands on. (Which was my big reason for reading it.) But, as much as I crap on Yudkowsky's Rationality: From AI to Zombies I'd probably read his chapters on Bayes' Theorem before reading this.  I heard about the book on Jesse Singal's substack. He was much more bullish on it. So you might read that if you're interested or on the fence. Specific thoughts: Lots of epistemic tools, Ballantyne really only covers one

Learning Bayesian Statistics
#149 The Future of Work in Tech, with Alana Karen

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2026 92:32


• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:11:37 The Hard Tech Era21:08 The Shift in Tech Work Culture28:49 AI's Impact on Job Security and Work Dynamics34:33 Adapting to AI: Skills for the Future45:56 Understanding AI Models and Their Limitations47:25 The Importance of Diversity in AI Development54:34 Positioning Technical Talent for Job Security57:58 Building Resilience in Uncertain Times01:06:33 Recognizing Diverse Ambitions in Career Progression01:12:51 The Role of Managers in Employee Retention01:26:55 Solving Complex Problems with AI and InnovationThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Alana's latest book (Use code BAYESIAN for 10% off + a free interview preparation download PDF)Alana's SubstackAlana on LinkedinAlana on InstagramThe Obstacle Is the Way – The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into TriumphCourage Is Calling – Fortune Favours the Brave

il posto delle parole
Paolo Alessandrini "Numeri che pensano"

il posto delle parole

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2026 24:34


Paolo Alessandrini"Numeri che pensano"Le sei grandi idee matematiche dentro l'IAHoepli Editorewww.hoeplieditore.itIl libro racconta l'affascinante storia delle grandi idee matematiche, sviluppate nel corso dei secoli, che sono alla base della moderna intelligenza artificiale.L'autore si propone di rispondere a una domanda cruciale: come funziona il cuore dell'IA? Come fanno queste potenti idee matematiche a interagire tra di loro e dare vita a macchine capaci di imparare, prevedere, pensare?Attraverso una narrazione che alterna storia e matematica, Alessandrini rivela come grandi menti del passato, come Cardano, Cartesio, Newton, Bayes, Grassmann e Levi-Civita, abbiano gettato le fondamenta teoriche della moderna IA.Paolo Alessandrini: divulgatore scientifico, blogger e autore di saggi come “Matematica rock”, “Bestiario matematico” e “Matematica in campo”, “Matematica e sport” e “Numeri che pensano”. Insegna matematica in un istituto tecnico e liceo scientifico in provincia di Treviso. Collabora con numerose realtà attive nella didattica e nella comunicazione della matematica, e si occupa anche di formazione.www.paoloalessandrini.itDiventa un supporter di questo podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/il-posto-delle-parole--1487855/support.IL POSTO DELLE PAROLEascoltare fa pensarehttps://ilpostodelleparole.it/

Learning Bayesian Statistics
#148 Adaptive Trials, Bayesian Thinking, and Learning from Data, with Scott Berry

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 30, 2025 84:49


• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs. Get in touch and tell them you come from LBS!• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:13:16 Understanding Adaptive and Platform Trials25:25 Real-World Applications and Innovations in Trials34:11 Challenges in Implementing Bayesian Adaptive Trials42:09 The Birth of a Simulation Tool44:10 The Importance of Simulated Data48:36 Lessons from High-Stakes Trials52:53 Navigating Adaptive Trial Designs56:55 Communicating Complexity to Stakeholders01:02:29 The Future of Clinical Trials01:10:24 Skills for the Next Generation of StatisticiansThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Giuliano Cruz, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Matt Rosinski, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık, Suyog Chandramouli, Guillaume Berthon, Avenicio Baca, Spencer Boucher, Krzysztof Lechowski, Danimal, Jácint Juhász, Sander and Philippe.Links from the show:Berry ConsultantsScott's podcastLBS #45 Biostats & Clinical Trial Design, with Frank Harrell

The Extramilest Podcast
#118: From Couch to 5K To 3:52 Marathon at 56 with Susan Bayes

The Extramilest Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2025 69:39


Thanks to LMNT for sponsoring this video! Head to https://DrinkLMNT.com/FLO to get your free sample pack with any purchase. Susan Bayes is a passionate runner and advocate for finding joy in the sport. At 56 years old and a mother of three, Susan shares her inspiring journey from starting with Couch to 5K to achieving marathon success. She shares training strategies, community support, and the mental aspects of running.   Watch this full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0bYjtQ3iPqE      CHAPTERS: 0:00 - Running through Couch to 5K 0:45 - My Book "Running Breakthroughs" is available now!   1:28 - LMNT Sponsorship 2:26 - How she got into running and her personal journey 4:50 - Transition from 5K to half marathons 6:19 - Growing as a runner, exploring low heart rate training.  8:54 - Using running as a coping mechanism during tough times. 10:32 - Talk about joining a running club. 11:18 - Backyard challenges and ultra running. 14:40 - Change in approach to training and mindset. 24:40 - Pain versus discomfort during races. 28:01 - Balance nutrition and the importance of being kind to oneself 30:06 - Finding community in running. 32:47 - Competitive nature and Parkrun experiences. 35:10 - Advice for younger self and importance of community. 39:24 - Overcoming injuries and mental strategies in racing. 46:35 - Favorite races and experiences shared. 51:04 - Cold exposure experiences 1:00:32 - Tips for runners stuck in their journey. 1:02:35 - How to become a stronger, healthier, happier athlete. 1:03:28 - Important closing thoughts.    LINKS & TOOLS MENTIONED ► My new book Running Breakthroughs as Audio book, Printed Book and eBook: https://florisgierman.com/ ► More options to buy the book worldwide on Amazon: https://geni.us/running-breakthroughs  ► Our Personal Best Coaching Program: https://www.pbprogram.com/  ► YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/florisgierman ► Strava: https://www.strava.com/athletes/1329785  ► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/florisgierman  ► Extramilest: https://extramilest.com/  ► Path Projects: https://pathprojects.com/flo ► Podcast: https://extramilest.com/podcast/    Affiliate Disclosure: I may earn commissions if you purchase items via my affiliate links. "As an affiliate I earn from qualifying purchases." Affiliate links do not increase cost to you. Also, you do not need to use these links. You can also search for these same items in Amazon or on any search engine/shopping site of your choice and buy/research them that way.     ABOUT THE EXTRAMILEST SHOW: A podcast and YouTube channel where host Floris Gierman interviews world class athletes, coaches and health experts on the topic of how to become a stronger, healthier and happier athlete.     More info about our Personal Best Running Coaching Program can be found at https://www.pbprogram.com.      SUBSCRIBE and hit the bell to see new videos: https://bit.ly/Flo-YT

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive
PRL 12-18-25 Zach Kaplan, Jeff Nadu, Greg Hudson, Andrew Bayes

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 143:47


PRL 12-18-25 Zach Kaplan, Jeff Nadu, Greg Hudson, Andrew Bayes by Pirate Radio

Pirate Radio Podcasts
EPISODE 275 ECU HOF Andrew Bayes talks Military Bowl & College Football Playoffs

Pirate Radio Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 20:45


EPISODE 275 ECU HOF Andrew Bayes talks Military Bowl & College Football Playoffs by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

Distorsion

Mer de Sicile, août 2024. Un super-yacht nommé Bayesian navigue dans la nuit quand une cellule orageuse éclate à l'horizon. À bord, Mike Lynch, le « Bill Gates britannique », qui vient tout juste de sortir d'un long bras de fer judiciaire avec les États-Unis. Quelques heures plus tard, le silence. Un naufrage éclair, qui soulève plus de questions qu'il n'apporte de réponses.Pour comprendre comment on s'est rendu là, on remonte la trajectoire d'un génie façonné par Cambridge, pis par une obsession : le théorème de Bayes. De Cambridge Neurodynamics à Autonomy, des négos avec HP aux débuts de Darktrace, Lynch a bâti des machines capables de faire parler le chaos : courriels, images, empreintes, signaux faibles. Entre l'État, le renseignement pis le monde des affaires, il a navigué dans une zone grise où les algorithmes ont parfois plus de poids que les mots. C'est ça, notre angle Distorsion : des histoires étranges de l'ère numérique, là où la donnée finit par ressembler à un destin.Au cœur de l'épisode, il y a une séquence troublante de 48 heures, une tempête « statistiquement improbable », pis une enquête italienne qui hésite entre météo extrême, négligence humaine… et d'autres pistes que certains aimeraient peut-être mieux pas trop brasser. Accident, opération discrète ou juste une bad luck poussée au maximum? On recolle les morceaux sans virer complotiste, on écoute les témoins, on suit les chiffres… pis on laisse une place à ce frisson qu'aucun modèle peut vraiment prévoir. Bonne écoute.Découvrez l'exposition immersive Sherlock Holmes : Menez l'enquête présentée par Pointe-à-Callière à Montréal ! Achetez vos billets dès maintenant juste ici : https://bit.ly/expo-distorsionnordvpn.com/distorsion, Rabais exclusif sur ton abonnement + plus 4 mois gratuits! ÉrosEt Compagnie : 15% de rabais avec le code DistorsionPatreonSite WebBoutique Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 46 – Get Involved in Local Politics with Booker Lightman

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2025 25:59


Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn't just a background task for him – he's taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He's here to tell us about the things he's done and give […]

How to be a polymath

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2025 39:40


Everyone loves a good Renaissance man or woman, but it's hard to do it all with tenacity and verve. There's also the constant balance between perfectionism and dilettantism — how long should you keep refining a project versus just bringing it to a close? For those of us prone to procrastination, even asking that question might prompt a delay.That's why I am excited to bring my good friend Uri Bram on the podcast this week. He's written a book on Bayes' theory, has been a publisher of a very successful online newsletter, has hosted olfactory gallery parties, and he just published his first party game called Person Do Thing inspired by trying to order vegan food at a restaurant in Thailand. In short, he's constantly experimenting with new forms of media and ways to bring people together.Together with host Danny Crichton, we talk about perfectionism and whether it helps or hurts creativity; Uri's experience playing Riskgaming; his new game; communications and the curse of knowledge problems; using Amazon as a social networking tool; and his recent viral blog post, “21 Facts About Hosting Parties.”

story RH
Bayer aux corneilles ou jouer à Bayes ?

story RH

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2025 6:52


Dans cet épisode nous allons parler du théorème de Bayes car c'est une clé pour mettre nos croyances face aux faits.

Learning Bayesian Statistics
#144 Why is Bayesian Deep Learning so Powerful, with Maurizio Filippone

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2025 88:22 Transcription Available


Sign up for Alex's first live cohort, about Hierarchical Model building!Get 25% off "Building AI Applications for Data Scientists and Software Engineers"Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Why GPs still matter: Gaussian Processes remain a go-to for function estimation, active learning, and experimental design – especially when calibrated uncertainty is non-negotiable.Scaling GP inference: Variational methods with inducing points (as in GPflow) make GPs practical on larger datasets without throwing away principled Bayes.MCMC in practice: Clever parameterizations and gradient-based samplers tighten mixing and efficiency; use MCMC when you need gold-standard posteriors.Bayesian deep learning, pragmatically: Stochastic-gradient training and approximate posteriors bring Bayesian ideas to neural networks at scale.Uncertainty that ships: Monte Carlo dropout and related tricks provide fast, usable uncertainty – even if they're approximations.Model complexity ≠ model quality: Understanding capacity, priors, and inductive bias is key to getting trustworthy predictions.Deep Gaussian Processes: Layered GPs offer flexibility for complex functions, with clear trade-offs in interpretability and compute.Generative models through a Bayesian lens: GANs and friends benefit from explicit priors and uncertainty – useful for safety and downstream decisions.Tooling that matters: Frameworks like GPflow lower the friction from idea to implementation, encouraging reproducible, well-tested modeling.Where we're headed: The future of ML is uncertainty-aware by default – integrating UQ tightly into optimization, design, and deployment.Chapters:08:44 Function Estimation and Bayesian Deep Learning10:41 Understanding Deep Gaussian Processes25:17 Choosing Between Deep GPs and Neural Networks32:01 Interpretability and Practical Tools for GPs43:52 Variational Methods in Gaussian Processes54:44 Deep Neural Networks and Bayesian Inference01:06:13 The Future of Bayesian Deep Learning01:12:28 Advice for Aspiring Researchers

The Dave Glover Show
Has the internet damaged kids' brains, Dave Murray's forecast, and Dr. Matt Bayes from Bayes Sports Medicine!- h3

The Dave Glover Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2025 32:44


Has the internet damaged kids' brains, Dave Murray's forecast, and Dr. Matt Bayes from Bayes Sports Medicine!- h3 full 1964 Mon, 27 Oct 2025 21:20:09 +0000 l4urDA0DEZw51rYBh52pMrRTxeuNpkoW comedy,religion & spirituality,society & culture,news,government The Dave Glover Show comedy,religion & spirituality,society & culture,news,government Has the internet damaged kids' brains, Dave Murray's forecast, and Dr. Matt Bayes from Bayes Sports Medicine!- h3 The Dave Glover Show has been driving St. Louis home for over 20 years. Unafraid to discuss virtually any topic, you'll hear Dave and crew's unique perspective on current events, news and politics, and anything and everything in between. © 2025 Audacy, Inc. Comedy Religion & Spirituality Society & Culture News Government False

Influencers & Revolutionaries
Andre Spicer 'The Art of Less'

Influencers & Revolutionaries

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2025 40:32


This episode of The New Abnormal podcast features Andre Spicer, Dean and Professor at Bayes Business School, City St George's, University of London. He's an expert in the fields of organisational behaviour, leadership and corporate social responsibility, and is the founding director of ETHOS: The Centre for Responsible Enterprise at Bayes. Andre is the author of a number of successful books, has co-authored numerous reports and written columns for the Guardian, Financial Times, New Statesman, and The Conversation. However, in this episode, we mainly focus on his latest book 'The Art of Less: How to Focus on What Really Matters at Work'.In it, Andre explains how "organisational sludge" gets in the way of performance, and what can be done about it. An issue which I'm sure all listeners will recognise as something that leaves us feeling overwhelmed but underproductive.So, listen to this essential guide on how to achieve more by doing less...

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive
PRL 10-22-25 Andrew Bayes, Donnell Coley, Zach Agnos, Rahjai Harris

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 142:07


PRL 10-22-25 Andrew Bayes, Donnell Coley, Zach Agnos, Rahjai Harris by Pirate Radio

Pirate Radio Podcasts
EPISODE 223 ECU Color Analyst Andrew Bayes gives ECU football mid-season grades

Pirate Radio Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 9:06


EPISODE 223 ECU Color Analyst Andrew Bayes gives ECU football mid-season grades by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive
PRL 8-27-25 Ken Watlington, Donnell Coley, Holton Ahlers, Andrew Bayes, Justin Hardy

Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville Audio Archive

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2025 142:21


PRL 8-27-25 Ken Watlington, Donnell Coley, Holton Ahlers, Andrew Bayes, Justin Hardy by Pirate Radio

Pirate Radio Podcasts
EPISODE 175 Andrew Bayes previews the ECU/NC State game & 2025 Bud Light Pregame Tailgate Open debuts

Pirate Radio Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2025 21:59


EPISODE 175 Andrew Bayes previews the ECU/NC State game & 2025 Bud Light Pregame Tailgate Open debuts by Pirate Radio 92.7FM Greenville

Data Science Interview Prep

As a data science professional, I know firsthand how challenging it can be to navigate the job market and prepare for interviews. That's why I started this podcast - to provide valuable resources to those looking to break into the field of data science.Running a podcast takes a lot of time and effort, so please consider supporting us. Become a Paid Subscriber: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/data-science-interview/subscribe⁠

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2025 13:28


Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2025 16:49


Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it's the precursor to glowfic!)

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes' Theorem

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 13:19


Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.

The EMS Lighthouse Project
Ep 99 - Adenosine or Diltiazem for SVT?

The EMS Lighthouse Project

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 35:15


We just got a new paper that compares initial treatment with adenosine compared with diltiazem for the treatment of adults with SVT in the ED. Wouldn't it be great if it turned out that diltiazem was just as effective, if not more effective, as adenosine without the crappy feeling? Yeah, that'd be great, but what do we do with statistically insignificant results. Is there, perhaps, a way to save this “insignificant” paper? Fear not, Bayes is here! Yes, that's right, Dr. Jarvis is grabbing this new paper and diving straight back into that deep dark rabbit hole of Bayesian analysis. Citation:1.     Lee CA, Morrissey B, Chao K, Healy J, Ku K, Khan M, Kinteh E, Shedd A, Garrett J, Chou EH: Adenosine Versus Fixed-Dose Intravenous Bolus Diltiazem on Reversing Supraventricular Tachycardia in The Emergency Department: A Multi-Center Cohort Study. The Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2025;August 1;75:55–64. FAST25 | May 19-21, 2025 | Lexington, KY

Healthy Her
Mini Motivation: How to support someone going through a tough time (with Brooke Campbell Bayes)

Healthy Her

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2025 15:57 Transcription Available


In this Mini Motivation episode host Amelia Phillips chats to Brooke Campbell Bayes about how we can support someone going through a tough time. Brooke is going through her own MS journey, navigating a recent diagnosis along with having three young daughters, a busy life and being so young herself. Brooke gives her honest take on what helped her feel truly supported (and what didn't!), and sheds light on how to support someone going through a tough time, particularly right after a diagnosis. This can be such a sensitive time, with many of us not feeling equipped to ask the right questions yet wanting to show up in a way that is most helpful for our loved one. About the guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes is the cohost of iChronic, where she and Monty Dimond offer a refreshingly honest and humorous look at life with chronic illness (If you don't laugh you'll cry, they say). The podcast explores the daily realities of living with ongoing health conditions, aiming to help listeners feel seen, supported, and a little less alone. Follow Brooke on instagram: https://www.instagram.com/brookecampbellbayes/ Listen to Ichronic on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/show-and-tell/id957291724?i=1000699346220 Listen to Ichronic on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rTxBX2oj7q2Y0F2IIQzSW?si=c145253822ec4985 About the host: Amelia Phillips is an exercise scientist, nutritionist, and published researcher (BSc, MNut) with a career spanning 26 years in health. She is the co-founder of Vitality360, a functional health platform that helps people gain deep insights into their health and make targeted changes for lasting vitality.A respected media presenter, Amelia has been featured on Channel 9’s hit show Do You Want to Live Forever? and is dedicated to helping people build a life of energy, connection, and purpose at any age or stage of life.Instagram: @_amelia_phillipsHave a question? Email: ap@ameliaphillips.com.auFind out more at: www.ameliaphillips.com.auDiscover Vitality360: https://v360.health CREDITSHost: Amelia Phillips Guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes Audio Producer: Darren RothMusic: Matt Nicholich Production Partner: Nova Entertainment Pty Ltd Healthy Her acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the Land we have recorded this podcast on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informationSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Coffee Break: Señal y Ruido
Ep518_B: Vera Rubin Observatory; Wow!; Sigmas y Bayes; M87*

Coffee Break: Señal y Ruido

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2025 151:34


Este episodio es continuación de la Cara A. Contertulios: Alberto Aparici, Borja Tosar, Gastón Giribet, Francis Villatoro, Héctor Socas. Imagen de portada realizada con Midjourney. Todos los comentarios vertidos durante la tertulia representan únicamente la opinión de quien los hace... y a veces ni eso (text copied to clipboard, press enter to continue)& C:/Python313/python.exe

Coffee Break: Señal y Ruido
Ep518_A: Vera Rubin Observatory; Wow!; Sigmas y Bayes; M87*

Coffee Break: Señal y Ruido

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2025 54:57


Cara A: -Actualización: Reunión en Madrid del 3 al 5 de Octubre, con Francis, Juan Carlos y Alberto (10:00) Carlos López Otín nombrado Marqués de Castillo de Lerés (17:30) -Paper de un autor ruso en 2011 sobre la señal Wow! (23:00) -Primeras imágenes del Vera Rubin Observatory (52:00) Este episodio continúa en la Cara B. Contertulios: Alberto Aparici, Borja Tosar, Héctor Socas. Imagen de portada realizada con Midjourney. Todos los comentarios vertidos durante la tertulia representan únicamente la opinión de quien los hace... y a veces ni eso (text copied to clipboard, press enter to continue)& C:/Python313/python.exe "c:/Users/mayra/OneDrive/Desktop/SEÑAL Y RUIDO/Programa/temas_tiempos.py" -Primeras imágenes del Vera Rubin Observatory (00:00) -Los exoplanetólogos sobreestiman las sigmas al hacer contrastes de hipótesis (32:20) -La estimación de la tasa de acreción y el espín de M87* (1:27:00) -Señales de los oyentes (1:53:00)

The Risk Takers Podcast
Bet Like a Bayesian & SP's DraftKings Beef | Ep 108

The Risk Takers Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2025 127:43 Transcription Available


This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds! Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting51:23 News1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick61:18:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/ Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjWant to work with my betting group?: john@goldenpants.comWant 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

The EMS Lighthouse Project
Ep 98 - Does the Sequence of RSI Medications Matter

The EMS Lighthouse Project

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 33:42


Train the Best. Change EMS.Howdy, y'all, I'm Dr Jeff Jarvis, and I'm the host of the EMS lighthouse project podcast, but I'm also the medical director for the new EMS system we're building in Fort Worth Texas. We are looking for an experienced critical care paramedic who is an effective and inspiring educator to lead the initial and continuing training and credentialing of a new team of Critical Care Paramedics who will be responding to our highest acuity calls. The salary is negotiable but starts between $65,000 and $80,000 a year for this office position. Whether y'all wear cowboy boots or Birkenstocks, Fort Worth can be a great place to live and work. So if you're ready to create a world-class EMS system and change the EMS world with us, give us a call at 817-953-3083, take care y'all.The next time you go to intubate a patient, should you give the sedation before the paralytic or the paralytic before the sedative? Does it matter? And what the hell does Bayes have to do with any of this? Dr Jarvis reviews a paper that uses Bayesian statistics to calculate the association between drug sequence and first attempt failure. Then he returns to Nerd Valley to talk about how to interpret 95% confidence intervals derived from frequentists statistics compared to 95% credible intervals that come from Bayesian statistics. Citations:1.     Catoire P, Driver B, Prekker ME, Freund Y: Effect of administration sequence of induction agents on first‐attempt failure during emergency intubation: A Bayesian analysis of a prospective cohort. Academic Emergency Medicine. 2025;February;32(2):123–9. 2.     Casey JD, Janz DR, Russell DW, Vonderhaar DJ, Joffe AM, Dischert KM, Brown RM, Zouk AN, Gulati S, Heideman BE, et al.: Bag-Mask Ventilation during Tracheal Intubation of Critically Ill Adults. N Engl J Med. 2019;February 28;380(9):811–21.3.     Greer A, Hewitt M, Khazaneh PT, Ergan B, Burry L, Semler MW, Rochwerg B, Sharif S: Ketamine Versus Etomidate for Rapid Sequence Intubation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials. Critical Care Medicine. 2025;February;53(2):e374–83.

Slate Star Codex Podcast
Bayes For Everyone

Slate Star Codex Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2025 29:19


A guest post by Brandon Hendrickson [Editor's note: I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Brandon Hendrickson, whose review of The Educated Mind won the 2023 contest, has taken me up on this and submitted this essay. He writes at The Lost Tools of Learning and will be at LessOnline this weekend, where he and Jack Despain Zhou aka TracingWoodgrains will be doing a live conversation about education.] I began my book review of a couple years back with a rather simple question: Could a new kind of school make the world rational? What followed, however, was a sprawling distillation of one scholar's answer that I believe still qualifies as “the longest thing anyone has submitted for an ACX contest”. Since then I've been diving into particulars, exploring how we use the insights I learned while writing it to start re-enchanting all the academic subjects from kindergarten to high school. But in the fun of all that, I fear I've lost touch with that original question. How, even in theory, could a method of education help all students become rational? It probably won't surprise you that I think part of the answer is Bayes' theorem. But the equation is famously prickly and off-putting: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/bayes-for-everyone

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2025 16:26


David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist He's also one of the cofounders … Continue reading →

Wellbeing
Dr Jessica Bayes - the effect of diet on depression

Wellbeing

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2025 25:17


Dr. Jessica Bayes led a pioneering clinical trial known as the AMMEND study (A Mediterranean Diet in MEN with Depression), which assessed the effects of a Mediterranean diet on the symptoms of depression in young men aged 18–25. Conducted at the University of Technology Sydney, this 12-week randomised controlled trial was the first of its kind to explore this dietary intervention in this specific demographic. Participants adhering to the Mediterranean diet experienced significant improvements in depressive symptoms compared to the control group, results highlighting the important role of nutrition for the treatment of depression.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Healthy Her
Reimagining life after a diagnosis, with Brooke Campbell Bayes

Healthy Her

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2025 34:01 Transcription Available


Have you ever received a diagnosis that has rocked your world? Or maybe you have a loved one who’s experienced this? If so, this episode is for you. Host Amelia Phillips and Mum of two Brooke Campbell Bayes have a raw and candid conversation about how to reimagine your life after a medical diagnosis. Brooke generously shares her story from a busy working Mum, to the day she woke up, knowing something was very wrong. How she navigated those first few months, and now a few years on, how she manages the ups and downs of her health challenges, whilst also being a Mum, wife, friend, sister (and all those hats we wear!). She shares the strategies that has helped her, but also the realities that can't be ignored. A valuable lesson for all of us, no matter our health challenges. About the guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes is the cohost of iChronic, where she and Monty Dimond offer a refreshingly honest and humorous look at life with chronic illness (If you don't laugh you'll cry, they say). The podcast explores the daily realities of living with ongoing health conditions, aiming to help listeners feel seen, supported, and a little less alone. Follow Brooke on instagram: https://www.instagram.com/brookecampbellbayes/ Listen to Ichronic on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/show-and-tell/id957291724?i=1000699346220 Listen to Ichronic on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rTxBX2oj7q2Y0F2IIQzSW?si=c145253822ec4985 About the host: Amelia Phillips is an exercise scientist, nutritionist, and published researcher (BSc, MNut) with a career spanning 26 years in health. She is the co-founder of Vitality360, a functional health platform that helps people gain deep insights into their health and make targeted changes for lasting vitality.A respected media presenter, Amelia has been featured on Channel 9’s hit show Do You Want to Live Forever? and is dedicated to helping people build a life of energy, connection, and purpose at any age or stage of life.Instagram: @_amelia_phillipsHave a question? Email: ap@ameliaphillips.com.auFind out more at: www.ameliaphillips.com.auDiscover Vitality360: https://v360.health CREDITSHost: Amelia Phillips Guest: Brooke Campbell Bayes Audio Producer: Darren RothMusic: Matt Nicholich Production Partner: Nova Entertainment Pty Ltd Healthy Her acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the Land we have recorded this podcast on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The EMS Lighthouse Project
E97 - Bayes and Calcium Before Diltiazem in Atrial Fibrillation

The EMS Lighthouse Project

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 39:27


We covered a paper in episode 81 that suggested treating atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular response in the field could lower mortality. But it also drops BP a bit. Could pretreating these patients with calcium lower the risk of hypotension? Dr Jarvis puts on his nerd hat and uses Bayesian analysis to assess a new randomized, placebo-controlled study that looked at just this thing. Why is he going off on this Bayes thing? Because he's been reading a couple of book on it and wanted to take it for a spin.  Tables:  Charts: Bayesian Distributions: Citation: 1.     Az A, Sogut O, Dogan Y, Akdemir T, Ergenc H, Umit TB, Celik AF, Armagan BN, Bilici E, Cakmak S: Reducing diltiazem-related hypotension in atrial fibrillation: Role of pretreatment intravenous calcium. The American Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2025;February;88:23–8.2.     Fornage LB, O'Neil C, Dowker SR, Wanta ER, Lewis RS, Brown LH: Prehospital Intervention Improves Outcomes for Patients Presenting in Atrial Fibrillation with Rapid Ventricular Response. Prehospital Emergency Care. doi: 10.1080/10903127.2023.2283885 (Epub ahead of print).3.     Kolkebeck T, Abbrescia K, Pfaff J, Glynn T, Ward JA: Calcium chloride before i.v. diltiazem in the management of atrial fibrillation. The Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2004;May 1;26(4):395–400.4.     Chivers T: Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World. Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2024.5.     McGrayne SB: The Theory That Would Not Die. how Bayes' Rule Cracked The Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines & Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy. New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 2011. FAST25 | May 19-21, 2025 | Lexington, KY

The Aging Project Podcast
When Life Changes Overnight: Brooke Campbell Bayes on living with Chronic Illness

The Aging Project Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 31:31


Today's conversation might just shift the way you see the world — and the people in it. Because chronic illness isn't rare. It's everywhere. It's the invisible battle so many people are fighting — quietly, bravely — while going about their everyday lives. And when it strikes, it doesn't just touch the body. It reshapes everything: careers, relationships, dreams, even how you move through a single day. The truth is, most of us are already connected to chronic illness — either living with it ourselves, or loving someone who is. But we don't often stop to talk about what that really feels like — or what it truly takes to keep showing up. Today, we're opening that conversation with Brooke Campbell Bayes — whose life changed overnight, from healthy one day to a diagnosis she never saw coming.. Connect with Brooke Campbell Bayes https://www.instagram.com/brookecampbellbayes/p/DHO4vBDTorz/ Show and Tell Podcasts https://www.instagram.com/showandtellpodcasts/

Ta de Clinicagem
Pipoca TdC 13: House - Obama e Bayes

Ta de Clinicagem

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 57:31


Mais um episódio da segunda temporada do Pipoca TdC!

RockneCAST
Murder or Suicide? - A Bayesian Approach to the Jeffrey Epstein Case (#298, 12 Mar. 2025)

RockneCAST

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2025 28:32


Did Jeffrey Epstein die by murder or suicide? In this episode, I argue that we should use Bayesian statistics to frame the debate. Indeed, we should use this approach to frame most "conspiracy theories". Most such theories are derided as compelling storytellers weaving half truths to fit their narrative.Bayes offers a more analytical approach.1. Make an educated guess about the probability of an event occurring. The likelihood of Epstein dying by suicide.2. Identify authenticated clues that support that hypothesis.3. Assess the odds of each clue happening independently, i.e. jail cameras not working, hyoid bone being broken, both guards falling asleep.4. Then calculate odds of those happening together.5. Perform calculation and then update original probability estimate based upon the probability those clues happening.Using Bayes with a "little" help from Grok, I identify the odds of murder versus suicide.I also identify ways that you should attack this analysis and not just my use of Grok.This approach should be used more frequently as we try to resolve debates surrounding "conspiracies". I don't even really like that word. We're really trying to assess whether Event x was caused by y or z.

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 41 – AI Action Plan

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2025 4:33


The White House wants to hear from you regarding what it should do about AI safety. Now's your chance to spend a few minutes to make someone read your thoughts on the subject! Submissions are due by midnight EST on … Continue reading →

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 40 – HPMOR 10 Year Anniversary Parties

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2025 11:57


Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one's happening near you? Fill this out!

Eye On A.I.
#237 Pedro Domingo's on Bayesians and Analogical Learning in AI

Eye On A.I.

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2025 56:43


This episode is sponsored by Thuma. Thuma is a modern design company that specializes in timeless home essentials that are mindfully made with premium materials and intentional details. To get $100 towards your first bed purchase, go to http://thuma.co/eyeonai   In this episode of the Eye on AI podcast, Pedro Domingos, renowned AI researcher and author of The Master Algorithm, joins Craig Smith to explore the evolution of machine learning, the resurgence of Bayesian AI, and the future of artificial intelligence. Pedro unpacks the ongoing battle between Bayesian and Frequentist approaches, explaining why probability is one of the most misunderstood concepts in AI. He delves into Bayesian networks, their role in AI decision-making, and how they powered Google's ad system before deep learning. We also discuss how Bayesian learning is still outperforming humans in medical diagnosis, search & rescue, and predictive modeling, despite its computational challenges. The conversation shifts to deep learning's limitations, with Pedro revealing how neural networks might be just a disguised form of nearest-neighbor learning. He challenges conventional wisdom on AGI, AI regulation, and the scalability of deep learning, offering insights into why Bayesian reasoning and analogical learning might be the future of AI. We also dive into analogical learning—a field championed by Douglas Hofstadter—exploring its impact on pattern recognition, case-based reasoning, and support vector machines (SVMs). Pedro highlights how AI has cycled through different paradigms, from symbolic AI in the '80s to SVMs in the 2000s, and why the next big breakthrough may not come from neural networks at all. From theoretical AI debates to real-world applications, this episode offers a deep dive into the science behind AI learning methods, their limitations, and what's next for machine intelligence. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for more expert discussions on AI, technology, and the future of innovation!    Stay Updated: Craig Smith Twitter: https://twitter.com/craigss Eye on A.I. Twitter: https://twitter.com/EyeOn_AI (00:00) Introduction (02:55) The Five Tribes of Machine Learning Explained   (06:34) Bayesian vs. Frequentist: The Probability Debate   (08:27) What is Bayes' Theorem & How AI Uses It   (12:46) The Power & Limitations of Bayesian Networks   (16:43) How Bayesian Inference Works in AI   (18:56) The Rise & Fall of Bayesian Machine Learning   (20:31) Bayesian AI in Medical Diagnosis & Search and Rescue   (25:07) How Google Used Bayesian Networks for Ads   (28:56) The Role of Uncertainty in AI Decision-Making   (30:34) Why Bayesian Learning is Computationally Hard   (34:18) Analogical Learning – The Overlooked AI Paradigm   (38:09) Support Vector Machines vs. Neural Networks   (41:29) How SVMs Once Dominated Machine Learning   (45:30) The Future of AI – Bayesian, Neural, or Hybrid?   (50:38) Where AI is Heading Next  

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 39 – Ladylike for Autistics

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2025 22:00


Eneasz tells Jen about Sympathetic Opposition's How and Why to be Ladylike (For Women with Autism), and the podcast takes a 1-episode break

Learning Bayesian Statistics
#124 State Space Models & Structural Time Series, with Jesse Grabowski

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2025 95:43 Transcription Available


Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Bayesian statistics offers a robust framework for econometric modeling.State space models provide a comprehensive way to understand time series data.Gaussian random walks serve as a foundational model in time series analysis.Innovations represent external shocks that can significantly impact forecasts.Understanding the assumptions behind models is key to effective forecasting.Complex models are not always better; simplicity can be powerful.Forecasting requires careful consideration of potential disruptions. Understanding observed and hidden states is crucial in modeling.Latent abilities can be modeled as Gaussian random walks.State space models can be highly flexible and diverse.Composability allows for the integration of different model components.Trends in time series should reflect real-world dynamics.Seasonality can be captured through Fourier bases.AR components help model residuals in time series data.Exogenous regression components can enhance state space models.Causal analysis in time series often involves interventions and counterfactuals.Time-varying regression allows for dynamic relationships between variables.Kalman filters were originally developed for tracking rockets in space.The Kalman filter iteratively updates beliefs based on new data.Missing data can be treated as hidden states in the Kalman filter framework.The Kalman filter is a practical application of Bayes' theorem in a sequential context.Understanding the dynamics of systems is crucial for effective modeling.The state space module in PyMC simplifies complex time series modeling tasks.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Jesse Krabowski and Time Series Analysis04:33 Jesse's Journey into Bayesian Statistics10:51 Exploring State Space Models18:28 Understanding State Space Models and Their Components

The Bayesian Conspiracy
Bayes Blast 38 – Shitcoins

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2025 4:08


How shitcoins work, plus the Dumb Money movie about the GameStop squeeze.

Naruhodo
Naruhodo #432 - O uso de cigarros eletrônicos é um problema de saúde pública?

Naruhodo

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2024 57:40


Já não faltavam evidências sobre os malefícios dos vapes e cigarros eletrônicos em 2019, quando falamos pela primeira vez sobre o assunto. Mas quais as novas evidências? E o seu consumo já se configura um problema de saúde pública?Este episódio é apresentado pela ACT Promoção da Saúde, organização não governamental que atua na promoção e defesa de políticas de saúde pública, especialmente nas áreas de controle do tabagismo, alimentação saudável, controle do álcool e atividade física. Esse trabalho é realizado por meio de ações de advocacy, que incluem incidência política, comunicação, mobilização, formação de redes e pesquisa, entre outras. Conheça mais em https://actbr.org.br/Confira o papo entre o leigo curioso, Ken Fujioka, e o cientista PhD, Altay de Souza.>> OUÇA (57min 41s)*Naruhodo! é o podcast pra quem tem fome de aprender. Ciência, senso comum, curiosidades, desafios e muito mais. Com o leigo curioso, Ken Fujioka, e o cientista PhD, Altay de Souza.Edição: Reginaldo Cursino.http://naruhodo.b9.com.br*APOIO: ACTEste episódio é apresentado pelo Sebrae Rio. Sabe aquelas pessoas que a gente admira pela criatividade, pela capacidade de liderar projetos ou de transformar ideias em realidade? Você pode ser uma dessas pessoas com o apoio do Sebrae Rio, desenvolvendo habilidades com a educação empreendedora, que não é só pra quem quer abrir um negócio: essas habilidades são superimportantes pra qualquer profissional.E se você é gestor ou professor de uma instituição de ensino, você pode levar a Educação Empreendedora para os seus alunos.É de graça e ainda emite certificado!Saiba mais, acessando atitude.sebraerj.com.br. E compartilhe suas habilidades empreendedoras nas redes sociais com a hashtag #TáNaSuaAtitude.Sebrae Rio: empreender tá na sua atitude.*REFERÊNCIASRethink Vape: Development and evaluation of a risk communication campaign to prevent youth E-cigarette usehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306460320307942?casa_token=stt22CU9-6AAAAAA:YPkZZ53Ftu3nkkekilolsWuJNKUbryiRjeLSIDReCt7I_VzpUe7m00pMu7x8ekXPen_tBRSmplYImpact of messages about scientific uncertainty on risk perceptions and intentions to use electronic vaping productshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306460318312140?casa_token=cLYGPqH_5ycAAAAA:ENqaVvNiFavJdpveZm6twD9JcfZP-EziEL0Vzt9gTE6wY4TLGguWJSDbG0-qZvIyTnMnkIyh3oIComics and Morals: Communicating the Risks of Vaping to Young Adults Through Moralized Graphic Comicshttps://www.proquest.com/openview/30046a092e0b52154768a5774baf4607/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=yHealth Messaging Strategies for Vaping Prevention and Cessation Among Youth and Young Adults: A Systematic Reviewhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10410236.2024.2352284Nicotina é até seis vezes maior em quem fuma cigarro eletrônico do que 20 cigarros comuns por diahttps://jornal.usp.br/ciencias/nicotina-e-ate-seis-vezes-maior-em-quem-fuma-cigarro-eletronico-do-que-20-cigarros-comuns-por-dia/Vaping in Youthhttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2822166?casa_token=AOMeZZluas0AAAAA:sLpdsaUTGQ6B9626AzCUq92sKEiOiQb4ZukceE2Z_lWxzYOfJ69UkK2sLlCNLiN9ulGOk1OzkJE&casa_token=j41vokSLcaUAAAAA:N7nCcnNEPuRTSdhY5abaMDWnmHMatAyw265mnYE3YUj1DOzb8Bt_VVuVMuPLwDh-amcoVdJ6_J8Trends in long term vaping among adults in England, 2013-23: population based studyhttps://www.bmj.com/content/386/bmj-2023-079016.shortA Systematic Review of Predictors of Vaping Cessation Among Young Peophttps://academic.oup.com/ntr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntae181/7717604A Vaping Cessation Text Message Program for Adolescent E-Cigarette Usershttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2822082?casa_token=jFrwYbTuE00AAAAA:cjSPTgP0FeIYTFS13Uli6akYcN37xjahDcnuCGSEXrgJQMpxExcD2GExrwPO4gNPdb2HqQ9Nyqc&casa_token=TrYwGgae_xEAAAAA:XCLLhI4Ku1KjcxxJ1tIi74OJmwW2Y1eNjq60LVYbJ7B8M2TNh7GPdQwBQIBjDefqVwlkmcaW7TUSmoking and vaping alter genes related to mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and severity: a systematic review and meta-analysishttps://publications.ersnet.org/content/erj/64/1/2400133.abstractThe Impact of Vaping on the Ocular Surface: A Systematic Review of the Literaturehttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/13/9/2619Drug Use Frequency Variation and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: an Online Surveyhttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8404543/Vaping among adults in England who have never regularly smoked: a population-based study, 2016–24https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00183-X/fulltextAssociation of vaping with respiratory symptoms in U.S. young adults: Nicotine, cannabis, and dual vapinghttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174352400330XTobacco Harm Reduction: The Industry's Latest Trojan Horse?https://exposetobacco.org/wp-content/uploads/tobacco-harm-reduction-cop10.pdfU.S. retail sales data show 86% of e-cigarette sales are for illegal productshttps://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/tobacco-industry-marketing/us-retail-sales-data-show-86-e-cigarette-sales-are?trk=feed_main-feed-card_feed-article-contentThe Normalization of Vaping on TikTok Using Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing, and Qualitative Thematic Analysis: Mixed Methods Studyhttps://www.jmir.org/2024/1/e55591/From Smoking to Vaping: The Motivation for E-Cigarette Use at the Neurobiological Level – An fMRI Studyhttps://academic.oup.com/ntr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntae273/7906109Vaping and Smoking Cue Reactivity in Young Adult Nonsmoking Electronic Cigarette Users: A Functional Neuroimaging Studyhttps://academic.oup.com/ntr/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntae257/7863347Impact of Electronic Cigarettes on the Cardiovascular Systemhttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5634286/Naruhodo #207 - Vape e cigarro eletrônico são seguros? (2019)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Raa9CUrIFbsNaruhodo #85 - Por que é tão difícil parar de fumar?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPkIT0ehoisNaruhodo #49 - O que causa o vício?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--Z_ylPXIWcNaruhodo #94 - O que é o Teorema de Bayes? (E o que horóscopo tem a ver com isso?)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE5fpsfPerwNaruhodo #328 - Existem "gatilhos mentais"?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxBQJlin8Z4Naruhodo #419 - Maconha faz mal? - Parte 1 de 2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvLTh2bKPiQNaruhodo #420 - Maconha faz mal? - Parte 2 de 2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7wVcGvpoGANaruhodo #267 - O que é dissonância cognitiva?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJwqmir5UwNaruhodo #268 - O que é dissonância cognitiva? - Parte 2 de 2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--OHlHmOQTM*APOIE O NARUHODO PELA PLATAFORMA ORELO!O podcast Naruhodo está no Orelo: bit.ly/naruhodo-no-oreloE é por meio dessa plataforma de apoio aos criadores de conteúdo que você ajuda o Naruhodo a se manter no ar.Você escolhe um valor de contribuição mensal e tem acesso a conteúdos exclusivos, conteúdos antecipados e vantagens especiais.Além disso, você pode ter acesso ao nosso grupo fechado no Telegram, e conversar comigo, com o Altay e com outros apoiadores.E não é só isso: toda vez que você ouvir ou fizer download de um episódio pelo Orelo, vai também estar pingando uns trocadinhos para o nosso projeto.Então, baixe agora mesmo o app Orelo no endereço Orelo.CC ou na sua loja de aplicativos e ajude a fortalecer o conhecimento científico.bit.ly/naruhodo-no-orelo