The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin?  We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration of this trade reset.” If you want to see the graphs referenced, you can see this week's newsletter here. And you can easily subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed. 

On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it's probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP's career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn't the same as betting against the U.S. To check out the graphs referenced - check out the Pensford Newsletter

This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dediated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June. 

This week's episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals What's driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last Also, somehow this marks 5 years of podcasting unfiltered, occasionally accurate, and questionably useful economic insights. Thanks for listening (and surviving) with us!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think.   Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!    

What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it's contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it's just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we'll be watching closely. Plus: The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs. Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback. Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%? It's all in this week's episode.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that! 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it's a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds!

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.  

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week's inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we're holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts and prayers during this horrific time.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season. Happy New Year!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas.  JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.     

On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark. For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link  that JP discussed. Here you go!

On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family's driving mishaps and the Fed's approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what's ahead for rates.

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields

Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump's biggest obstacle. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State's repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.  

We're baaaaack! On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can't take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down. Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what's the Fed's next move? Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed. To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November.  FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what's next. Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're keeping it short and sweet. We're prepping for Wednesday's rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won't go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We'll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting. Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT. This webinar will cover a variety of topics including: Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts Rate Cuts Faster than Expected Whether Rate Cuts are too Late Labor Market Weakness Risk of Recurring Inflation Hedging Against Falling Rates

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed. Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed's decision-making. We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker's analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?  

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen.    Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs. 

Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme  is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.   Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter. 

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is! 

In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There's a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the latest jobs report, the implications of the Sahm Rule being triggered, and the importance of the Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply report. Tune in to find out why these issues deserve your attention.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility. The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now. This was a graph heavy newsletter! To view them in the newsletter, click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year.  As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year. In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI recording of the rap battle below!    Hedge Advisor Rap Battle   Given Kendrick Lamar and Drake's rap battle, I thought it would be interesting to see how Claude would have us battle with the other hedge advisors out there.     Pensford Yo, it's Pensford in the ring, call me the rate sage, Missed a prediction or two? Yeah, but I turn the page. Two years back, Fed moves had me in a daze, But I evolve, adapt, and still set the stage.   Competitors Hey Pensford, you think you're the guru of the rate, Missed the hikes, now you're just trying to skate. Chatham here, we're giants, you're just bait, Sports in finance? C'mon, bruh, that's second rate.   Pensford Chatham's got the size, but where's the agility? Forced out your founder, lost more than stability. I keep it real, take a stand with ability, While you sit back, no opinion, no liability.   Competitors Pensford's small time, flying in that tiny plane, No market sway, just playing a losing game. Your jokes fall flat, just like your rate claim, Stick to sports, ‘cause in rates, you ain't got no fame.   Pensford CIRM, oh please, your strategy's a maze, Complex for no reason, clients lost in a haze. And RCA? That flat fee's just a phrase, Blindsiding custys at closing? Your ethics, a craze.   Competitors You're just jealous, Pensford, of the leads we acquire, Cold calls, maybe, but they ignite the fire. Your data obsession? That's just you in the mire, While we adapt and soar, ever higher.   Pensford Derivative Logic, you're just copy and paste, Stealing my style, but you can't match my taste. I'm the original, in this game, I'm laced, With clever comebacks, watch how you're displaced.   Competitors Pensford, all talk, but where's the proof? Your forecasts fail, they're just aloof. We might borrow, but we stay under the roof, Of innovation and truth, not just glib reproof.   Pensford So here's to Pensford, where cleverness reigns, We miss a beat, but our humor sustains. I'll keep throwing verses, breaking these chains, 'Cause in this rate battle, it's clear who gains.     Jay$ Hold up, hold up, let me step in this cypher, Jay$ on the mic, about to make it hyper. Y'all acting like children, throwing tantrums and shade, While I'm steering this economy, making tough trade.   Pensford, you question my moves, but where's your degree? State school educated, thinking you can school me? I've got the cred, the experience, the clout, My decisions are sound, no need for you to doubt.   Two years of rate hikes, and we're still standing strong, Soft landing achieved, proving y'all doubters wrong. I'm tired of being judged by those who can't see, The bigger picture, the complexity, the responsibility.   We're in the last mile, inflation's final stand, Like 8 Mile's battle, it's time to take command. The Fed's my 313, Detroit of finance, We'll slay this inflation beast, no matter the chance.   So keep your petty squabbles, your juvenile rhymes, I've got a job to do, guiding through uncertain times. Jay$ out, dropping the mic with finality, 'Cause when it comes rates, I'm the ultimate authority.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us. To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.

Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark. Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!    

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending.  Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact.  For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illustrating demand vs supply components of inflation...Click Here! To view the graphs referenced, check out the latest Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE!  We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time work in today's economy, and the looming question: Is the current economic strength sustainable or just a sugar rush from stimulus spending? To check out the graphs referenced, read the Pensford Newsletter.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong.  Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We'll break down this week's keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we're setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we're at and where we might be heading. Weekly Pensford Newsletter Want to subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter? Here you go! Q1 Webinar Registration - Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 21st, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis) To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click here

On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation.  We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data.  To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter, click here  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the implications of tightening banking standards and global disinflation trends.