Podcasts about Economic Outlook

Original Release Date: November 25, 2025Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research, Indeed, Inc.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research, Indeed, Inc.

Economists believe the economy will grow faster next year.

In this episode, Mike Babbitt from Synovus is on the podcast to talk about the inherent risks associated with importing goods, and how you can reduce that risk especially when starting with new suppliers. He shares various strategies to illustrate these challenges, and the importance of understanding the international trade landscape.   Mike Babbitt, Synovus's Head of Trade and Supply Chain Finance Origination, is on the podcast today to talk about the various risks that importers (and exporters) are facing in 2025 and 2026 and how you as an importer can protect yourself when importing.    Mike also talks about the various trends he's observed over the years and how we're slowly moving to a "just right" inventory model.    If you're looking to expand your product portfolio with new suppliers, this episode may be for you.    Timestamps 00:00 - Introduction to International Trade and Sonovus Bank 02:56 - Understanding Risks in Importing and Exporting 05:55 - Mitigating Risks with Letters of Credit 09:02 - Practical Scenarios for Using Letters of Credit 11:55 - Exploring Trade Financing Mechanisms 14:57 - Current Trends in Importing and Exporting 17:54 - Reconfiguring Supply Chains and Reshoring 21:06 - Economic Outlook and Consumer Confidence 24:01 - Conclusion and Contact Information Mike, thanks for coming on the podcast. If you'd like to reach out to Mike, you can check him out on his LinkedIn page here.   As always, if you have any questions or anything that you need help with, leave a comment down below if you're interested.   Don't forget to leave us a review on iTunes if you enjoy our content.   Thanks for listening!   Until next time, happy selling!

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Cody Thacker, Vice President of Commercial Operations, Scout Motors.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Doug Woodward, professor of economics, Darla Moore School of Business.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Doug Woodward, professor of economics, Darla Moore School of Business.

1. Christmas and Its Religious Significance The discussion begins with warm holiday greetings and reflections on the meaning of Christmas. Emphasis is placed on celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ, highlighting its spiritual importance over commercial aspects like gifts and Santa Claus. Ben and the Senator share personal traditions, such as reading Luke Chapter 2 during Christmas dinner, and discuss cultural practices (e.g., Cuban Christmas Eve celebrations with roasted pig vs. vegetarian meals). There’s commentary on a resurgence of faith among younger generations, citing record-breaking Bible sales in 2025. 2. Economic Outlook and Media Bias The conversation shifts to positive economic news: U.S. GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3, the strongest in two years. They argue this growth contradicts negative media predictions and accuse mainstream outlets of political bias. Key points include: Strong consumer spending during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Positive impacts of trade policy, tax cuts, and deregulation under President Trump. Criticism of media framing economic success negatively compared to previous administrations. 3. Welfare Fraud and Systemic Issues Historic fraud in Minnesota’s Medicaid and welfare programs, estimated at $9 billion, and allegations that funds were diverted to terrorist organizations like Al Shabab. Predicting similar fraud in other Democratic-led states (California, New York, Illinois). Wall Street Journal op-ed by Phil Gramm and John Early is mentioned about structural flaws in the U.S. welfare system: Welfare spending has surged 765% over 50 years, now costing $1.4 trillion annually. Many benefits are not counted as income, creating misleading poverty statistics and perpetuating dependency. The argument advocates for welfare reform to encourage work and reduce generational poverty. Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson and The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruz/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/verdictwithtedcruz X: https://x.com/tedcruz X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Joey Von Nessen, chief economist at the Moore School's Division of Research.

Economist Carl Bonham from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization discusses what's in store for the state's economy in 2026, including the impact from Hawaii's minimum wage increase. And from the New Year's deadly fireworks accident to ICE raid arrests, HNN's Daryl Huff helps break down some of the top news stories from 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Joey Von Nessen, chief economist at the Moore School's Division of Research.

William Lee and Rick Pederson discuss the U.S. economic outlook. Lee notes strong GDP productivity, a weakening labor market, and Fed policy risk. Pedersen highlights that core inflation is elevated and fewer fed cuts.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This is the time of year when we share with you some excerpts from the most recent University of South Carolina Darla Moore School of Business Economic Outlook Conference. Today's excerpt comes from Joey Von Nessen, chief economist at the Moore School's Division of Research.

William Blair macro analyst Richard de Chazal discusses why 2026 looks brighter for the economy, exploring the impact of AI-driven investment, evolving policy risks, and the surprising strength of the American consumer. *This episode was recorded December 16th, 2025

Global economic growth will be stretching the limits, according to our latest outlook for 2026 and 2027. Our economists have revised it up to now reach 2.9% in 2026 following a robust 3% in 2025, with the US and China accounting for over two-thirds of the upward revision. In the last episode of the year, our AI Assistant Aria explains what lies ahead, and what could go wrong. Read the full report here: https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/insights/publications/specials_fmo/251217-economic-outlook-2026-27.html This content was generated by AI with the oversight of Allianz Research.

In this special holiday edition, Emmaline Aliff is joined by Equifax Advisors Tom O'Neill, Dave Sojka, Jesse Hardin, and Maria Urtubey for a “Santa Scorecard” look back at what was naughty or nice in the 2025 economy, and what may change in 2026. The group unpacks AI adoption, rate cuts, equity market resiliency, and rising consumer stress signals—from student loans to auto and mortgage delinquencies. They close with 2026 resolutions, including what they're watching most closely.Economist Shandor Whitcher from Moody's Analytics provides this episode's macroeconomic update.What are the key economic themes discussed?·       AI adoption at the personal and industry level—and its economic impact·       The state of inflation, growth, and consumer sentiment·       Federal Reserve rate cuts and what they mean for credit, housing, and auto loans·       Equity market resiliency and the role of higher-income households·       Rising delinquencies in student loans, auto, and mortgages·       Government shutdowns and gaps in economic data·       The persistence—and possible evolution—of the K-shaped economyWhat are the biggest risks heading into 2026?The panel highlights labor market softening, affordability pressures, consumer reliance on credit, and uncertainty around policy, tariffs, and inflation.What are the key takeaways for businesses and lenders?·       Consumer financial health is increasingly uneven across income tiers·       Credit performance signals require closer monitoring in 2026·       AI and alternative data sources are becoming essential for economic insight·       Adaptability and resilience will be critical as uncertainty continuesHave feedback or want to be a guest?Contact the Equifax Advisors team at riskadvisors@equifax.com. 

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar's models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

NH Fiscal Policy Institute Research Director Phil Sletten shares insight into New Hampshire's economy with recent data report findings. Topics touch upon housing, child care, and other business factors that will shape the state's economy going into 2026.

Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman is pushing traders in financial markets to focus on the bank's November 26 Monetary Policy Statement. This has prompted investors to speculate that interest rates will remain low throughout 2026. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite some signs of softening, the Irish economy has proven resilient in the face of the uncertainty of the past year.In this episode of Ibec Responds, Ibec's Chief Economist Gerard Brady, and Economist Mourad Mejdi, discuss the major economic events of 2025 including the areas of international trade and the labour market… and look forward to 2026, analysing how developments in geopolitics and AI that could shape the economic outlook.Thank you for listening. To explore all of Ibec's podcast offering, visit here. Make sure to follow Ibec Podcasts to stay up to date with new episodes.

This week on LPL Market Signals, LPL's Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder and Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach recap last week's market tug-of-war between the AI theme and the Federal Reserve, share LPL Research's economic outlook for 2026, and highlight economic data to watch this week as the economic calendar has some catching up to do. Tracking #837730

Larry Werther offers a cautiously optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy, highlighting the resilience of the consumer sector despite softening labor markets and elevated stock valuations. He discusses the nuances of a K-shaped economy, where upper-income spending remains robust, while lower and middle-income households face increasing pressure. Werther also delves into the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, acknowledging both its promise and the inevitable market corrections for certain AI stocks, drawing parallels to past tech bubbles.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Chris is Managing Partner with KPMG with responsibility for the Bay Area and the Pacific Northwest. In the interview Chris references two KPMG studies that are available to listeners :KPMG's CEO Outlook SurveyKPMG's American Worker Survey

The new jobs numbers are out and they're up. Plus, unemployment ticks up. 

We've heard enough from the pessimists. Yes, these are hard times, but what investors, business owners and all of us need right now is not more despair about the economy, but a clear roadmap towards growth and prosperity. In October 2025, Jeremy Hunt came to the Intelligence Squared stage to share his vision of how we can achieve economic renewal. Hunt's optimism is grounded in the authority of experience. As a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Health Secretary, he held some of the most demanding government offices during an extraordinarily turbulent time in recent history. Drawing on the themes of his new book Can We Be Great Again?, he challenged the fatalism that dominates so much of today's public debate. While candid about Britain's weaknesses, he argued that on issues ranging from European security and global trade to climate, migration and the future of democracy, the UK still has the potential to lead — if it chooses to act like a country that matters. Hunt was in conversation with BBC journalist Jonny Dymond for this instalment of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series, in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. The event was a wide-ranging discussion with one of Britain's most experienced leaders on how the country can get back on track, at home and on the world stage. --- This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For the most powerful voice in Michigan business, it's the Michigan Chamber Business Brief with President and CEO Jim Holcomb. Jim delivers a high-level wrap-up of the year and a clear-eyed look ahead to 2026, highlighting major concerns for employers as Michigan considers more than doubling the state income tax, a move that could hit small businesses especially hard. He also tackles the state's ongoing education crisis, the competitiveness challenges facing Michigan's economy, and why the upcoming elections will determine whether these issues get solved or get worse. The segment closes with a call for business leaders and citizens alike to get involved and make their voices heard: Make your voice heard! Join today at MIChamber.com/membership

Ireland's economy is highly vulnerable to external risks in a pessimistic global economic environment. That's the warning from the Economic and Social Research Institute, who have today published their medium-term Economic Outlook. With more on this we heard from John Fitzgerald Adjunct Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin.

Oakmark, the fourth largest Warner Brother Discovery shareholder joins to show to discuss the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount Skydance, which they say is far from over. Then could allowing Nvidia to export select chips to China actually slow down domestic advances in the region? That argument, this hour. Plus, Mastercard just out with its 2026 economic outlook. The findings, first on CNBC. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this year-end episode of County Conversations, NYSAC Executive Director Stephen Acquario is joined by Joseph Rulison, Co-Founder of three+one, for an annual economic outlook. Together, they review the surprises, shifts, and standout trends that defined 2025, and forecast what county leaders need to know as they prepare for 2026. This episode is sponsored by the Alliance for Clean Energy New York and their Plugging In podcast.

As we wrap up 2025 and turn the calendar page to 2026, Billy Roberts, senior analyst, Food & Beverage, for CoBank, joins the Food For Thought podcast to offer an economic outlook for the food and beverage industry in the new year. Roberts discusses everything from the impact of GLP-1 drugs on food and beverage companies to consumer perception of affordability, and how private-label products can continue to grow in this atmosphere. Furthermore, he shares what processors can learn from the last year's roller coaster ride with tariffs, and the possibility of additional consolidation of brands and production capabilities and facilities in the new year.

On the December 9th episode of the Market Trends Podcast, Steve Kaempf and Matt Lombardi analyze national home prices, affordability challenges, rising listings, and “refuge markets” in the Midwest, while also reviewing corporate ownership and the impact of interest rates. They wrap up with market forecasts for 2026, industry news, local sports shoutouts, and invitations to upcoming webinars and podcasts.Introduction and Episode Overview (00:00:01)NAR 2024 Financial Snapshot: Revenues and Executive Compensation (00:00:52)NAR Staff Compensation and Spending Breakdown (00:02:44)NAR Marketing, PR, and Brand Defense Spending (00:04:00)NAR Legal and Lobbying Expenditures (00:05:41)Transparency and Fiscal Discipline Concerns at NAR (00:06:37)How to Research Nonprofit Financials (00:08:15)Federal Reserve Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations (00:08:54)Impact of Rate Cut on Mortgage Rates and Affordability (00:09:55)Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot and Market Uncertainty (00:10:50)US Economic Resilience and Real Estate Market Cooling (00:12:13)Real Estate Market Trends: Inventory and Pending Sales (00:12:51)Mortgage Rate Predictions and Market Unsticking (00:13:21)Compass Northwest MLS Antitrust Lawsuit Update (00:13:40)2026 Real Estate Market Predictions: Methodology (00:16:06)2025 Market Recap and 2026 Sales Forecasts (00:17:52)2026 Mortgage Rate and Economic Outlook (00:20:24)2026 Home Price and Affordability Outlook (00:22:51)Rising Listings, Refuge Markets, and Contract Cancellations (00:25:44)National Pricing and Supply Trends (00:28:21)Who Owns America's Homes? Corporate vs. Local Ownership (00:31:08)Rise of the Mega Investor (00:34:47)Local and Legislative News, Sports Shoutouts (00:36:22)Podcast Announcements and Closing (00:39:00)Full episodes available at www.peoplenottitles.comPeople, Not Titles podcast is hosted by Steve Kaempf and is dedicated to lifting up professionals in the real estate and business community. Our inspiration is to highlight success principles of our colleagues.Our Success Series covers principles of success to help your thrive!www.peoplenottitles.comIG - https://www.instagram.com/peoplenotti...FB - https://www.facebook.com/peoplenottitlesTwitter - https://twitter.com/sjkaempfSpotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/1uu5kTv...

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 to five percent in its latest Economic Outlook report. This marks the third time the OECD has upgraded its projection for China this year.

A CDC advisory panel has voted to roll back Hepatitis B vaccines for newborns. If approved, it could reverse 30 years of gains in fighting the liver disease. We also look how Hollywood is responding Netflix purchasing Warner Bros. And we look at a series of economic indicators and how the Federal Reserve might respond to in their meeting next week.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Episode 113: 2025 in the rearview—are markets in for another strong year?Hosts:Kevin Headland (Co-chief Investment Strategist)Macan Nia (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Special guests:Emily Roland (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Matt Miskin (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Episode highlights• 2025 in review:• The team discusses the strong performance of markets in 2025, including theTSX's impressive 24% return despite a challenging economic backdrop in Canada.• Key market drivers:• The role of momentum trading, trend-following strategies, and AI exuberance.• The ongoing influence of the crypto trade.• Discrepancies between Canada's economic data and TSX performance.• Looking ahead to 2026:• Will the trends of 2025 continue, or is a shift on the horizon?• The importance of sentiment as we enter the new year—are markets priced forperfection?• Why investing in companies is not the same as investing in the broader economy.• Risks and opportunities:• Potential risks for the Canadian economy, especially regarding banks andfinancials.• The importance of being prudent and keeping an eye on domestic economicindicators.• The impact of investor confidence and employment on market flows.• Actionable insight:Information à usage interne - Internal• The team provides practical considerations for investors as they positionportfolios for 2026.• Encouragement to review the team's full 2026 outlook, available on the ManulifeInvestments website.Additional information• Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform to stay up to date.• Listeners are encouraged to rate, share, and reach out with questions or feedback. 

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach shares insights on small business challenges, labor market trends, and economic tailwinds shaping 2026. Tracking: #833546

Plus: SNHD launches a dashboard tracking respiratory illnesses; a mama bear and her cub test Tahoe's patience; and what to see, hear, and do in Nevada. That and more in the latest episode of KNPR's State of Nevada.

It's common knowledge that good performance in midterm elections hinges on one key issue: the economy. The Left knows this, and it knows that Trump's economy is not only doing better than last year at this time during the Biden administration, but it's doing better than any time in history. Victor Davis Hanson explains the strategy behind the Democrats' attempt to distract Americans from booming growth before the 2026 midterms on today's episode of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.” “The economy is going to boom in 2026 and the Left knows that. So, what is their strategy? Don't talk about the Trump economy. And we've seen what? Go after Tesla. Firebomb Tesla dealerships. Drive Tesla off, automobiles off the road because Elon Musk was the prince of darkness and he was involved in DOGE. Demonize DOGE. Go after ICE. Have street theater. Have riots. Call them Gestapo. Say they're worse than Hitler. Go after the National Guard that has cleaned up Washington, D.C. Encourage massive resistance. Call it illegal. Shut down the government.”

Mike Switzer interviews Joey Von Nessen, chief economist at the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How is the economy faring heading toward the start of 2026? Oklahoma economist Dr. Robert Dauffenbach analyzes the state of the economy and what's ahead in the new year.

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Scott Hoyt joins the podcast to provide a look into the holiday retail season and to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer more broadly. The team reviews the downbeat data on consumer confidence, the labor market, inflation and housing, and contemplates the implications for consumer spending this Christmas. The team remembers to take a listener question on income inequality and the mood gets even darker. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Enjoy this special feed drop of In This Economy?!A recent report by Indeed Canada found that seasonal job postings are up 12% this year compared to 2024, which could offer some respite for those looking for work. Statistics Canada says the unemployment rate remains elevated for the month of October, sitting at 6.9%, while youth unemployment is basically double that at 14.1%.Host Mike Eppel speaks to Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed Canada to break down the report and discuss how the interest in holiday jobs says more about the bigger picture of the state of the economy. The also discuss how the current geopolitical climate plays into the unemployment market. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter

What if a stock market crash actually sparks the next real estate boom? That's exactly what John Chang, Head of Research at Marcus & Millichap, and I dive into on this episode of Cash Flow Connections. In a time of record-high uncertainty, John breaks down: Why multifamily is uniquely positioned for resilience even during a recession How a flight to safety could actually lower cap rates The #1 indicator that capital is about to pour back into real estate The real reason some Sunbelt markets are struggling (and why that's about to change) What rising tariffs, construction slowdowns, and shifting Fed leadership mean for investors If you're trying to time the next market cycle, or wondering when to jump back in, this episode is a must-listen. Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the episode: John Chang Website LinkedIn Podcast Interested in learning how to take your capital raising game to the next level? Meet us at Capital Raiser's Edge. Learn more here: https://raisingcapital.com/cre

What's ahead for interest rates, the job market, and the housing economy? This Monday, we will be joined by Jorge Barro from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M to break down the 2025 economic outlook and what REALTORS® should be watching heading into 2026.    HAR Newsroom - https://www.harconnect.com/   Sign up for Free Industry News Subscriptions for HAR Members here-   https://www.harconnect.com/free-industry-news-subscriptions-for-har-members/   Are you an HAR MLS Platinum Subscriber? Join our Facebook Group! Click to join. Sign Up for your free Real Estate News Subscription here. Sign up for your free Inman Select Subscription here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube , and LinkedIn.

Are your deals taking longer to close lately? Economic uncertainty has created a perfect storm for B2B sellers. Deals that closed easily last year now stall indefinitely, buyers ghost after months of relationship building, and budget conversations end with requests for huge discounts.   The good news is that you're not doing anything wrong. However, the frustrating reality is that this pattern is playing out across industries as CFOs tighten their grip on every purchase decision, creating longer approval cycles and more complex buying committees.   If you want to stop getting ghosted and start closing deals again, this episode is your roadmap. Join Eleanor this week as she breaks down six data-backed economic insights that explain exactly why buyers are exercising extreme caution right now, and the four core strategies to keep your buyers buying through winter 2025/26.   Get full show notes and more information here: https://safimedia.co/WO74   Connect with Eleanor on LinkedIn or Instagram: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eleanorbeaton/ https://www.instagram.com/eleanorbeaton/?hl=en

We've heard enough from the pessimists. Yes, these are hard times, but what investors, business owners and all of us need right now is not more despair about the economy, but a clear roadmap towards growth and prosperity. In October 2025, Jeremy Hunt came to the Intelligence Squared stage to share his vision of how we can achieve economic renewal. Hunt's optimism is grounded in the authority of experience. As a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Health Secretary, he held some of the most demanding government offices during an extraordinarily turbulent time in recent history. Drawing on the themes of his new book Can We Be Great Again?, he challenged the fatalism that dominates so much of today's public debate. While candid about Britain's weaknesses, he argued that on issues ranging from European security and global trade to climate, migration and the future of democracy, the UK still has the potential to lead — if it chooses to act like a country that matters. Hunt was in conversation with BBC journalist Jonny Dymond for this instalment of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series, in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. The event was a wide-ranging discussion with one of Britain's most experienced leaders on how the country can get back on track, at home and on the world stage. --- This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've heard enough from the pessimists. Yes, these are hard times, but what investors, business owners and all of us need right now is not more despair about the economy, but a clear roadmap towards growth and prosperity. In October 2025, Jeremy Hunt came to the Intelligence Squared stage to share his vision of how we can achieve economic renewal. Hunt's optimism is grounded in the authority of experience. As a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Health Secretary, he held some of the most demanding government offices during an extraordinarily turbulent time in recent history. Drawing on the themes of his new book Can We Be Great Again?, he challenged the fatalism that dominates so much of today's public debate. While candid about Britain's weaknesses, he argued that on issues ranging from European security and global trade to climate, migration and the future of democracy, the UK still has the potential to lead — if it chooses to act like a country that matters. Hunt was in conversation with BBC journalist Jonny Dymond for this instalment of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series, in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. The event was a wide-ranging discussion with one of Britain's most experienced leaders on how the country can get back on track, at home and on the world stage. --- This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices