Podcasts about fed funds

Trump a encore dégainé sur Truth Social : “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”. Résultat immédiat : le Brent a pris jusqu'à +2 % avant de rendre un peu de terrain, tandis que les futures S&P passent en mode frein moteur. À 24 h de la décision FOMC, le marché est en apnée : 0 % de chance d'un mouvement aujourd'hui, mais 61 % de probabilité d'une première baisse en septembre d'après les contrats Fed Funds. Powell devrait confirmer le mantra “higher for longer… but data-dependant” — et tout le monde scrute son dot-plot, histoire de voir si 1-2 coupes en 2025 tiennent toujours la corde. Radar du jourCrude > 72 $ : si la flambée se prolonge, l'inflation re-monte en première ligne.S&P 500 : zone charnière 5 990-6 050 pts ; break-out ou fake-out ?Dollar Index : stable au-dessus de 104, prêt à réagir au moindre mot de Powell.Volatilité : le VIX reste sous 15, mais il suffit d'un tweet pour rallumer la mèche.

On today's show we are talking about the risk premium being attached to US sovereign debt and how this has the potential to destabilize real estate markets for all US investors. We are accustomed to thinking that the Fed sets the interest rate. But the truth is that the Fed only sets one interest rate. That is the Fed Funds rate that banks use to lend to each other. The downgrade of the US debt by Moody's debt rating agency last Friday was a reflection of the government's persistent failure to adopt measures that would “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Moody's was the third bond rating agency to downgrade the US sovereign debt after S&P and Fitch downgraded the US debt in August of 2023. It's not the downgrade per se that is the problem. The market makes its own determination and does not just look at what the bond rating agencies have to say.Spending is heading higher, regardless of who is in the White House. The demographic impact on entitlement programs is unavoidable. The population is aging and when the social security program was launched, there were 16.5 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Today there are 2.71 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. By the mid 2030's, that number is expected to fall to 2.3 people working for every one person collecting. The math doesn't fund the liabilities. The current White House was elected on the promise of the economy and of fiscal responsibility. The latest budget bill that had wound its way through the Congress shows an increase in spending and a widening budget deficit. Despite desires to cut government waste and abuse, the impact seems somewhat muted. The bond market is clearly seeing significant risk to the ballooning US sovereign debt. This week's auction in new US Treasuries did not go well. The appetite for new paper from the US government was muted and the price that was bid for the 30 year was so low that the yield on the 30 year is now above 5%. The 30 year Treasury is a long denomination bond and its yield moves very slowly. To have the price for that bond drop so sharply in a matter of days has definitely rattled markets. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Following Sunday night's 90-day agreement on tariffs between the US and China, the S&P500 sailed back above its pre-Liberation Day levels. All is right with the world. Sentiment seems weaker than data, so one will correct. After Liberation Day JPMorgan called for a 2H25 recession. Following the tariff news they dropped that forecast. Fed Funds […]

Tassi fermi anche per meglio affrontare le nuove incertezze generate dall Amministrazione Trump. Per la seconda volta consecutiva, la Federal Reserve ha lasciato il Fed Funds target al 4,25%-4,50%. Immutata la diagnosi dell economia, ma - nota il comunicato iniziale - «è aumentata l incertezza sulle prospettive». Le proiezioni economiche, e in particolare il sommario delle previsioni dei governatori sull andamento futuro dei tassi, continuano a indicare in mediana, per fine anno, un costo del credito ufficiale al 3,75-4%, corrispondente ad altre due tagli entro la fine dell anno. Immutato anche il sentiero per i prossimi anni: 3,25-3,75% a fine 2026, 3-3,25% a fine 2027 e tre per cento nel medio periodo. Rallenta, rispetto alle indicazioni di dicembre, la crescita economica prevista: passa all 1,7%, dal 2,1% per il 2025, all 1,8% per il 2026 (2%) e per il 2027 (1,9%), e aumenta l ampiezza del range delle previsioni, segno di una maggiore incertezza. «Guardando al futuro - ha spiegato in conferenza stampa il presidente Jerome Powell - la nuova amministrazione è in procinto di attuare importanti cambiamenti politici in quattro ambiti distinti: commercio, immigrazione, politica fiscale e regolamentazione. Sarà l effetto netto di questi cambiamenti a contare per l economia e per l orientamento della politica monetaria». Risale intanto l inflazione prevista: 2,7% quest anno (dal 2,5%), 2,2% l anno prossimo (2,1%) e due per cento a fine 2027 (invariato). Quanto pesino i dazi non è facile capirlo. Ne parliamo con Franco Bruni, presidente dell'Ispi e professore emerito del dipartimento di Economia dell'Università Bocconi.I dazi Usa terrorizzano l'export italiano. Una Germania che inizia a far debito può compensare?Oggi è stato presentato dall'Istat alla Camera di Commercio di Genova il rapporto sulla competitività dei settori produttivi, dal quale emerge che più di 23mila aziende italiane sono 'vulnerabili' all'export. Un'impresa è vulnerabile alla domanda estera (all'export) se le sue esportazioni sono concentrate geograficamente (in pochi mercati di sbocco), merceologicamente (in pochi prodotti) e spiegano una quota rilevante del suo fatturato. Nel 2022 le aziende italiane vulnerabili all'export erano lo 0,5% del totale, ma impiegavano oltre 415 mila di addetti (il 2,3%) e generavano il 3,5% del valore aggiunto e il 16,5% dell'export totali. Erano vulnerabili soprattutto alla domanda statunitense (quasi 3.300 unità) e tedesca (oltre 2.800). Le imprese vulnerabili verso gli Stati Uniti esportavano in tale mercato prevalentemente prodotti farmaceutici, prodotti meccanici (turboreattori e turbopropulsori), gioielleria, generi alimentari (vini e oli) e mobili. Quelle alla domanda tedesca parti di autoveicoli, beni energetici (gas), materiale elettrico (fili e cavi), prodotti in metallo (quali viti e bulloni) e lavori in alluminio (barre e profilati). Commentiamo il tutto con Fabrizio Pagani, Partner Vitale&Co e docente a SciencesPo di Parigi. Destro: «I valichi alpini sono fondamentali, serve una politica Ue»«I valichi alpini hanno un ruolo fondamentale e una priorità strategica in un quadro non solo nazionale ma europeo. Occorre una politica Ue: non si tratta solo di una questione tra paesi confinanti, ma di tutta l Unione». È questo il messaggio forte che ha lanciato Leopoldo Destro, delegato del presidente di Confindustria per Trasporti, Logistica e Turismo, durante un convegno organizzato dall associazione degli industriali italiani a Bruxelles, in collaborazione con il Medef (Confindustria francese), dal titolo "Bridging the Alps: overcoming barriers and advancing sustainable connettivity in Europe" , in una sala del Parlamento europeo. Un modo anche fisico per sensibilizzare le istituzioni Ue sulle istanze del mondo delle imprese. Ne parliamo proprio con Leopoldo Destro, Delegato del Presidente di Confindustria per i Trasporti, la Logistica e l Industria del Turismo.

Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds' futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what's the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs.   Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994 Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009 Why investors shouldn't panic Reminding everyone why it's good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle 3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025? Value of hedging your portfolio High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs?  Uncertainty of Tariffs  Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide Trade deficit expands   Mentioned in this Episode   Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency https://zegainvestments.com/blog/for-investors-worried-about-market-corrections-this-is-why-you-hedge-so-that-you-can-worry-less   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT    

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2/4/25: Attorney John Pucci: Trump's revenge tour, purges of DoJ & FBI professionals. Pioneer Regional Principal Annie Scanlan-Emigh & Noho parent and founder of Screentime Free Childhood Emily Boddy on cell phone policies in schools. Sen Paul Mark: Legislative Calendar, Gov's budget, & Plan B if Fed funds are withheld. Mike German: "Policing White Supremacy"

Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?    Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers   Mentioned in this Episode   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

In this episode, Chris and Saied break down the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, and let's just say, it's got everyone—from Wall Street to your wallet—feeling some kind of way. With a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate, inflation still refusing to play nice, and the bond market throwing a full-on tantrum, it's clear: the Fed's decisions are anything but boring. Oh, and don't miss Chris's hot take on how housing affordability has officially hit “you-can't-make-this-up” levels of absurdity. Spoiler alert: the 10-year Treasury and your dreams of a lower mortgage rate aren't on speaking terms.➡️ From the VIX spiking a jaw-dropping 74% to why shrinkflation has you paying more for less Doritos, the duo dives into why markets have gone wild. Is the Fed's “data dependency” just another way of saying “we're winging it”? And what does this all mean for you, dear listener? Whether you're a seasoned investor or someone just trying to figure out why eggs are still so damn expensive, Chris and Saied deliver insights with their signature blend of smarts and sass. Tune in for all the juicy details, and remember, it's not the size of the rate cut—it's how you use it!

Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. Lance & Michael discuss the precarious premise behind Microsystem's Bitcoin strategy, what makes for value, and what happens when there's no more buyers. How did the Hunt Brothers' silver gambit differ from Microsystems Bitcoin bid? CPI Recap: Inflation is sticky at current levels because that's where the growth is. Plowing through the final, lame duck weeks of the Biden presidency; there are still some Federal Covid Stimulus funds to be distributed to states, keeping inflation fires stoked. What's happening with Canada and the rest of the world? Economic growth attracts capital; next year may hold surprises for the bullish crowd. Bitcoin is the epitome of The Greater Fool Theory. SEG-1: Generational Wealth Transfers, CPI , PPI, & Santa Claus Rally SEG-2: Microsystems, Bitcoin, & Convertible Debt SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations? SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPkzTXYsmk0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2331s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/cpi-was-on-the-screws-the-fed-has-the-green-light/ "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Pressure is On the Markets," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxcoj_-jaAY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #RateCut #CPI #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketValuations #RiskManagement #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. Lance & Michael discuss the precarious premise behind Microsystem's Bitcoin strategy, what makes for value, and what happens when there's no more buyers. How did the Hunt Brothers' silver gambit differ from Microsystems Bitcoin bid? CPI Recap: Inflation is sticky at current levels because that's where the growth is. Plowing through the final, lame duck weeks of the Biden presidency; there are still some Federal Covid Stimulus funds to be distributed to states, keeping inflation fires stoked. What's happening with Canada and the rest of the world? Economic growth attracts capital; next year may hold surprises for the bullish crowd. Bitcoin is the epitome of The Greater Fool Theory. SEG-1: Generational Wealth Transfers, CPI , PPI, & Santa Claus Rally SEG-2: Microsystems, Bitcoin, & Convertible Debt SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations? SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPkzTXYsmk0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2331s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/cpi-was-on-the-screws-the-fed-has-the-green-light/ "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Pressure is On the Markets," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxcoj_-jaAY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #RateCut #CPI #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketValuations #RiskManagement #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Warren's Macro Overview (06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate (14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation (21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation (22:54) Ads (25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative (27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing (28:27) Taxes & Government Spending (31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms (34:29) The K-Shaped Economy (37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles (39:05) Politics & The Oil Market (41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff (56:38) Does The Deficit Matter? (58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration (01:01:14) The Bid For Duration (01:04:57) Warren's Trading __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.

En el episodio de hoy, Miguel Muñoz y Eugenio Garibay discuten sobre los últimos acontecimientos en los mercados financieros, comenzando con las declaraciones clave de Jerome Powell sobre la delicada situación económica actual. Analizan la postura de la Fed sobre las tasas de interés y el riesgo de mantenerlas elevadas por demasiado tiempo, así como las expectativas para los próximos recortes.Los hosts profundizan en los comentarios sorpresivos de Powell sobre Bitcoin, donde lo caracterizó como "oro virtual", y examinan el impacto de estas declaraciones en el mercado cripto. La conversación gira hacia MicroStrategy, su reciente compra masiva de Bitcoin y su innovadora emisión de bonos convertibles de cupón cero por $3 mil millones, explicando detalladamente el funcionamiento de estos instrumentos financieros y su atractivo para los inversores institucionales.El episodio concluye con un análisis técnico sobre las tasas actuales de la Fed Funds, las expectativas del mercado para futuros recortes y la importancia del próximo dot plot que será publicado en la reunión del FOMC del 18 de diciembre.

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron's article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Post election rallies around close Presidential elections 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate Probability of interest rate cut in December update US Inflation progress stalled in October? US Dollar Index pushing through resistance When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn't Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield) Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates Barron's article evaluating MicroStrategy's premium to its Bitcoin holdings     Mentioned in this Episode   Barron's Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation https://www.barrons.com/articles/microstrategy-stock-price-bitcoin-valuation-702281bd   Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/candy-coated-cartel-time-kill-us-sugar-program#an-overview-of-u-s-sugar-policy   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the Fed's new tool, Reserve Demand Elasticity, and its use of the fed funds rate and aggregate reserves to measure in real-time the ampleness of reserves in the banking system. They also discuss some interesting findings from MMFs' September holdings. Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In our recent Market Outlook podcast, we highlight our latest views on the economy and financial markets including the potential for a soft landing in the economy, the expected magnitude of future Fed Funds rate cuts, and key investment opportunities across markets. In this podcast, Patrick Donlon, CFA, CFP, Fiduciary's Investment Department Co-Head, presents our latest views and is joined by Austin V. Shapard, President & CEO for Q&A.  You may view the video version with closed captions here.   

Yesterday the Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate by 1/2 of a percent. The prime rate followed, going from 8.5% to 8.0%. Rates on everything from credit cards to savings accounts to CDs also went down. And the rates on bonds and mortgages continued to decline.Given all of this, where are the best places to keep your cash?The Fed's Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...30-year U.S. Bond Yields: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MO...T-Bill Yields: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-ce...Savings Accounts: https://www.allcards.com/savings-acco...No-Penalty CD Rates: https://www.allcards.com/no-penalty-c...Join the Newsletter. It's Free:https://robberger.com/newsletter/?utm...

Un'ammenda per una correzione: la settimana scorsa ho parlato di Covestro, oggetto dell'interesse della compagnia petrolifera emiratina ADNOC. L'azienda che produce, distribuisce e commercializza polimeri plastici non è uno spin-off di BASF, ma di Bayer, l'altro colosso chimico tedesco, agli onori delle cronache più recenti per l'acquisizione della Monsanto, che sinora è costata a Bayer miliardi di spese per le cause intentate negli Stati Uniti. Torniamo alle novità principali della settimana: il taglio dei tassi da parte della Fed e la nuova Commissione Europea. Al super falco Dombrovskis, oltre a tutti i dossier economici, spetteranno produttività e semplificazione, due grandi capitoli dell'analisi impietosa di Draghi. Poi c'è energia e Green Deal, affidati alla spagnola Ribera, unica socialista di peso nel blocco della Commissione. Alla lotta contro l'elusione e l'evasione fiscale va l'ex ministro delle finanze olandese Wopke Hoekstra, che rimarrà anche commissario per il clima. Hoekstra è stato azionista di una società offshore coinvolta nello scandalo dei Panama Papers: dai documenti emerse che l'allora ministro delle finanze aveva avuto per anni un interesse in una società delle Isole Vergini Britanniche, che controllava tra l'altro società di safari in Kenya e Tanzania. Il neo commissario dovrà confrontarsi con dossier molto complessi, primo tra tutti quello prodotto dalla storica sentenza della Corte di Giustizia sui benefici fiscali concessi dall'Irlanda ad Apple, che ora dovrà restituire 13 miliardi di euro a Dublino. L'Unione ha perso un round con Google, a cui è stata annullata una multa da 1,5 miliardi di euro comminata da Bruxelles per abuso di posizione dominante nella pubblicità online. Ma le Big Tech non si curano molto delle regole e dei dibattiti connessi al loro predominio. La più aggressiva rimane Microsoft, che ha appena annunciato un piano di investimento comune con BlackRock per investire nell'intelligenza artificiale. Sulla decisione della Fed di tagliare di mezzo punto percentuale il tasso ufficiale di sconto e dello 0,25% i Fed Funds, segnaliamo sempre il commento di Donato Masciandaro, che la scorsa settimana criticava duramente Lagarde e non risparmia critiche pesanti nei confronti del governatore della banca USA. Come titola oggi il Sole, le borse hanno registrato un ennesimo record, ma il taglio della Fed c'entra solo fino a un certo punto, poiché pesa maggiormente l'andamento del PIL. Quel che è certo è che, accanto ai titoli hi-tech, banche e pharma stanno macinando utili. Intermediari finanziari e istituti di credito hanno registrato nel terzo trimestre del 2024 una redditività del 20,6%, a fronte di una crescita del 6,6% del fatturato. Allo stesso modo, l'healthcare, che include Big Pharma e biomedicale, ha visto utili in crescita del 20,4%, con vendite aumentate del 7,7%. Interessante l'analisi europea che contrasta con alcuni punti dell'analisi di Draghi sulla competitività del Vecchio Continente: in testa per redditività ci sono le utility, seguite dalle società finanziarie ed energetiche, mentre le tecnologiche europee sono in drammatica flessione (-29,1%). Draghi sottolineava gli alti costi dell'energia in Europa, imputandoli in gran parte alla speculazione finanziaria e degli operatori, un quadro con cui dovranno fare i conti i nuovi commissari economici scelti dalla von der Leyen. Tornando all'Europa, il tracollo delle vendite di auto dimostra che la crisi del settore ha ben poco a che fare con le regole di Bruxelles per la transizione all'elettrico. Per l'Italia, il segretario della FIOM, Michele De Palma, che da oltre 10 anni segue il comparto dell'auto, lo ha spiegato chiaramente. In parallelo, l'Unione Europea ha perso un round con Google, a cui è stata annullata una multa da 1,5 miliardi di euro per abuso di posizione dominante nella pubblicità online. Tuttavia, le Big Tech non sembrano molto preoccupate dalle regole e dai dibattiti sul loro predominio. Microsoft, la più aggressiva tra loro, ha recentemente annunciato un piano di investimento comune con BlackRock per investire nell'intelligenza artificiale.

After four years, the Federal Reserve has finally cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.75% - 5%. Expectations point to another 50 basis points in cuts for 2024 and a total of 100 basis points by 2025. Fed Chair Powell remains optimistic, stating the economy is 'very solid' and sees no elevated risk of a downturn. In this episode, I'll break down what this rate cut means for real estate, stocks, and—most importantly—your retirement, focusing on the impact to your safe withdrawal rate. Get A Free Financial Checkup Of Your Investment Portfolio If you have over $250,000 in investable assets, take advantage and schedule an appointment with an Empower financial advisor here. Complete your two video calls with the advisor before October 31, 2024, and you'll receive a free $100 Visa gift card.  After a great run in stocks, another recession could hit. It's always a good idea to get a second opinion about how your investments are positioned, especially from a professional who sees other people in your situation all the time.  Related posts: Maximizing Real Estate Returns In A Multi-Year Interest Rate Cut Cycle Increasing The Safe Withdrawal Rate For Retirement At The WRONG Time Join 60,000+ others and subscribe to the free weekly Financial Samurai newsletter here. This way, you'll never miss a thing. 

On the back of a recently published FOMC preview report, this week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through what to expect at the September FOMC meeting and the rationale for why our house view is calling for the first cut to be 50bps. George also explores how this easing cycle may progress. In George's view, this is a historical event because this easing cycle is being launched as a preemptive move to avoid further cooling in the labor market and economy. In the last few easing cycles, the Fed has lowered rates in reaction to a specific event or catalyst (i.e. dot.com bust, GFC and the pandemic) that shocks and quickly weakens the economy (forcing the Fed into action). This time the Fed has seen the macro environment turn and is being cautious because recent data is likely overstating how healthy the economy truly is. Therefore, the Fed is trying to modulate rates with the goal of avoiding a hard landing due to macro reasons (driven by the impact of higher rates on consumer spending, small business activity and government finances). In our view, and as covered in the podcast and our FOMC preview report, there are plenty of reasons to start off with a 50bp cut. From a risk management perspective, there are two points to make. If the Fed is behind the curve (we think they are, they should have eased this past summer), they should cut rates quicker at the start and then attenuate the speed later in the easing cycle.   Although many surveys and forecasters are calling for 25bp cut, the market has priced in 50bps and to disappoint market pricing (which is embedded in all asset classes) runs the risk of acutely tightening financial conditions at the start of the easing cycle. That would be counterproductive and against the reason to cut in the first place. Further down the road, as the Fed has a few cuts under its belt, at that stage is where we think there could be more push back from the Fed without triggering adverse market reactions. Lastly, we think the market has a lot of the potential cuts already priced-in for the overall cycle. Where one cannot definitively spell out at this point what is the right pace and final resting place for the Fed Funds rate. The election may have an impact during the early days of 2025 (as fiscal policy adjusts) too. We have been arguing the sooner the Fed starts, the less they may need to do. Its possible that we get pitstops along the way towards a neutral rate or it comes in a flash. Bottom-line: We think 50bp is the best option in September. Post the first cut, the next moves from the Fed will come down to the outlook for the economy and markets.  

On today's show we are talking about a new paper published last Friday by Brent Johnson and  Michael Peregrine of Santiago Capital. Brent Johnson is famous for his dollar milkshake theory. This 44 page article is a deep dive into the Japanese carry trade. Many of you might remember a banking crisis that erupted in Japan last month as a result of the implosion of widespread carry trade activity. While the Yen is likely to rise in the short term when the carry trade truly blows up, it is probably going to fall after that. As I said, the BOJ can protect the bond market or the currency, but not both.  So why do we care about this? If Japan dumps a trillion dollars worth of US Treasuries in a short time period, we could see the supply of US Treasuries exceed demand. That means a sharp and unexpected rise in the yield for US Treasuries which will impact the cost of borrowing for real estate investors. Just because the Fed is in a lowering cycle for the Fed Funds rate, doesn't mean that the cost of borrowing for real estate investors will follow suit.  -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Barry and Zach are live with the latest in mortgages, real estate, finance, and everything else! With a current Fed Funds rate of 525-550, CME FedWatch is now predicting for the 9/18/24 meeting: a 61% drop to 475-500 a 39% drop to 500-525 That's a complete reversal from last week when the market likelihood was 70% for 500-525 and only 30% for 475-500. So what has changed in the last 7 days? The 10 year treasury yield has pretty much stayed below 3.7% for the last two weeks. Are we due for a reversal or will it continue to trend downward? Finally, we are now offering higher maximum conforming loan limits! $802,650 and lower for a 1-unit residence is now considered “conforming” and not a “jumbo mortgage”. So visit www.townstone.com for a FREE 1 on 1 consultation for your next purchase, refinance, home equity loan, reverse mortgage, or home equity line of credit. We have the best rates, the lowest closing costs, and unparalleled customer service. See for yourself why we're the #1 independent mortgage company for over 20 years.

Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia's beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn't. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Finally, “everyone” seems to be saying its time to buy longer maturity bonds. Is that view getting crowded and why will or won't long rates move lower because the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.    Nvidia earning beat but misses the “whisper” number After hours trading reaction to Nvidia earnings Difference between Gross profit and Net profit Nvidia's massive profit margins compared to grocery stores Earning growth year over year Implied volatility pre-earnings to compute the implied expected stock move Why option premiums and volatility rise before earnings announcements How implied volatility gets sucked out of markets post earnings Long Straddles at the money before earnings characteristics and risks The Fed is expected to lower the front part of the interest rate curve What does that mean for the back half of the longer duration bond maturities? The spread between the 10-year treasury bond and the 30-year mortgage rate Hindenburg Research negative piece on Super Micro Computer SMCI     Mentioned in this Episode   Hindenburg negative research on Super Micro Computer https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/   Jay Powell & The “Good Ship Transitory” | Price Caps Proposed by Politicians | Huge Employment Revisions | US Dollar Breaking Down? https://open.spotify.com/episode/09SZBfu7OSlh5ygHONqY1s?si=SwTdDLMUQS67KHvCjNkZMA   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Although Monday's correction springs from multiple causes, the real questions may be what's next and when will the correction become a buying opportunity?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the recent equity market correction and whether it's time to step in.It's Monday, Aug 5th at 11:30am in New York.So let's get after it.Over the past several weeks, global equity markets have taken on a completely different tone with most major averages definitively breaking strong uptrends from last fall. Many are blaming the Fed's decision last week to hold interest rates steady in the face of weaker jobs data while others have highlighted the technical unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade.However, if we take a step back, this topping process began in April with the first meaningful sell off since last October's lows. Even as many stocks and indices rallied back to new highs this summer, the leadership took on a more defensive posture with sectors like Utilities, Staples and even Real Estate doing better than they have in years. As I have been discussing on this podcast this shift in leadership has coincided with softer economic data during the second quarter. This softness has continued into the summer with the all-important labor market data joining in as already noted.This rotation was an early warning sign that stocks were likely vulnerable to a correction as we highlighted in early July. After all, the third quarter is when such corrections tend to happen seasonally for several reasons. This year has turned out to be no different. The real question now is what's next and when will this correction become a buying opportunity?Lost in the blame game is the simple fact that valuations reached very rich levels this year, something we have consistently discussed in our research. In fact, this is the main reason we have no upside to our US major averages over the next year even assuming our economists' soft landing base case outcome for the economy. In other words, stocks were priced for perfection.Now, with the deterioration in the growth data, and a Fed that is in no rush to cut rates proactively, markets have started to get nervous. Furthermore, the Fed tends to follow 2-year yields and over the last month 2-year treasury yields have fallen by 100 basis points and is almost 170 basis points below the Fed Funds rate. What this means is that the market is telling the Fed they are way too tight and they need to cut much more aggressively than what they have guided.The dilemma for the Fed is that the next meeting is six weeks away and that's a lifetime when markets are trading like they are today. Markets tend to be impatient and so I expect they will continue to trade with high volatility until the Fed appeases the market's wishes. The flip side, of course, is that the Fed does an intra meeting rate cut; but that may make the markets even more nervous about growth in my view.Bottom line, markets are likely to remain vulnerable in the near term until we get better growth data or more comfort from Fed on policy support, neither of which we think is forthcoming soon.Finally, support can also come from cheap valuations, but we don't have that yet at current prices. As of this recording the S&P 500 is still trading 20x forward 12-month earnings estimates. Our fair value multiple assuming a soft-landing outcome on the economy is closer to 19x, which means things aren't actually cheap until we reach 17-18x, which is more than 10 per cent away from where we are trading.In the meantime, we continue to recommend more defensive stocks in sectors like Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and some Real Estate. Conversely, we continue to dislike smaller cap cyclical stocks that are most vulnerable to the current growth slowdown and tight rate policy.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation. ___ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Mike Green's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report (05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now? (06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher (28:35) VanEck Ad (29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces (32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies? (42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining? (48:40) Permissionless Ad (49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger (53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More (01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices (01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup" (01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Central bankers can adjust something called the Fed Funds interest rate in a way that makes borrowing more or less expensive in their campaign to bring inflation down to a healthy rate. But it’s like a lot of things in life: Timing is everything. We’ll discuss what to expect. Also on the show: Home purchase deals fell apart in June, and Roblox, the online game platform for kids, is grappling with a predator problem.

Central bankers can adjust something called the Fed Funds interest rate in a way that makes borrowing more or less expensive in their campaign to bring inflation down to a healthy rate. But it’s like a lot of things in life: Timing is everything. We’ll discuss what to expect. Also on the show: Home purchase deals fell apart in June, and Roblox, the online game platform for kids, is grappling with a predator problem.

Episode 239 of The Higher Standard podcast starts off with Chris, Saied and Haroon diving in to some of the top financial mistakes people make. Some of these may sound basic or simple, but you would be shocked at how many people are impacted by these problems every single day.➡️ For the second segment of the show, the boys go deep on the first strong probability of a Fed Funds rate cut. See, we told you that we don't only bring you bad news.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility. The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now. This was a graph heavy newsletter! To view them in the newsletter, click here.

On today's show we are taking a look at what the bond market might be signalling when it comes to the US economy and the global economy.  We have known that the yield curve has been inverted for a record period of time, more than 2 years as of now. An inverted yield curve happens when the short term interest rates are higher than long term interest rates. The classic metric has compared the yield between the 2 year and the 10 year treasury bond. Today the 2 year and the 10 year bond are still inverted. We still have an inverted yield curve against that definition. However, the yield spread between the 2 year and the 30 year has actually normalized and is no longer inverted. Of course that might change again in the next day, or even in the next hour and re-invert. But for now we have a short term rate below a long term rate. Yields for the 2 year have fallen, and for the 10 year and even for the 30 year. All of these rates have fallen. The only one that has stayed the same is the Fed Funds rate set by the Federal Reserve in the range of 5.25%-5.5%.  It's not natural for long term interest rates to be lower than short term rates. You can't see as clearly far into the future. That risk and uncertainty associated with the longer timeframe suggests that a risk premium would be warranted.  The memory of 2008 has faded for many. Most remember it today as a real estate crisis, confined to subprime mortgages. But the tentacles of 2008 were much wider. There were millions of job losses, large scale bankruptcies, bank failures, stock market declines. The wealth destruction that occurred during that period was a global financial earthquake. Too many people are pushing forward today as if there are no risks in the market.  We will see lower interest rates in our future, and higher interest rates at the same time. The rates for the safest investments will come down. But those perceived to carry a risk premium will face even more expensive money, even as interest rates fall. This is the fallacy associated with looking to a single rate as a determinant of our financial future. --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back together to discuss what happens after the Fed makes its first rate cut historically in markets. Plus, what if everyone is wrong about rate cuts? Then, they look at the historical spread between inflation and the Fed Funds rate plus how would investors take the other side of rate cuts? Finally, they discuss the idea of this being the 1990s all over again with AI as a technological revolution like the internet boom?   Earnings season is in full bloom Fed Funds rate vs the YoY CPI Inflation comparison Why historically Fed Funds does not have to equal annual inflation What is the Fed afraid of? Nasdaq Composite returns after major releases of new technologies Record call volume on the IWM ETF (Russell 2000) Total return for markets 12 months post 1st rate cut going back to 1974 Implied interest rate based on fed funds futures VIX and the market both go up?   Mentioned in this Episode   Podcast 1994-95 All Over Again in Markets? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Fed funds rates. What do Federal Reserve Fund rates mean for banks and the economy, and what does it actually mean for markets and your portfolio?

Fani Willis, the District Attorney for Fulton County, Georgia, is no stranger to controversy, having led the charge in filing cases against former President Donald Trump and his confederates. However, she now finds herself under scrutiny, with investigations into her office's management of federal funds. GOP Senators Chuck Grassley from Iowa and Ron Johnson from Wisconsin recently penned a stern letter to Willis, demanding answers about what seems to be a misappropriation of grant money from the federal government. The letter, which has been made accessible to the public via sources including The Beacon, draws attention to a glaring discrepancy. It contrasts the original purpose of the taxpayer-allocated federal awards with the alleged real usage of these funds in Fulton County. The Senators were unequivocal in their condemnation, emphasizing that wastage or misuse of taxpayer money is a breach of public trust. Senator Grassley, in conversation with The Beacon, reinforced the need for accountability, stating unequivocally that Congress has the right to scrutinize the allocation and utilization of federal tax dollars. He pointed out that these monies were meant to aid at-risk youth and bolster essential law enforcement initiatives. Yet, the indications are that the Fulton County DA's office may have utilized these resources for their own discretionary reasons. All misuse of taxpayer funds should be taken seriously and addressed with appropriate actions. However, it isn't just Senators Grassley and Johnson sounding the alarm. The Beacon's independent investigation corroborated the allegations of dubious spending. In particular, it flagged several instances where DA Willis appeared to divert funds from federal grants to pay for her office's expenditures, such as computer equipment and travel expenses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

See our related article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/recessions-happen-when-fed-funds?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Derek Moore discusses the declining probabilities for Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. Plus, how PCE Supercore did not make the case for Fed rate cuts. Later, looking at the analyst's expectations for earnings growth within the S&P 500 Index. Finally, comments on a paper showing how using the pre-1983 methods to compute CPI Consumer Price Index show we had higher inflation that the 1970s.   Declining Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for 2024. Explaining how implied interest rates from Fed Funds futures are computed. The case against rate cuts seems to be buoyed by sticky US CPI Supercore measures. What is CPI Supercore and PCE Supercore compared to CPI Core and plain old CPI? Explaining how the US CPI Consumer Price Index used to compute inflation prior to 1983. How measuring housing inflation changed in 1983. Why did they change how CPI is measured to owners' equivalent rent? Looking at the probabilities for rate cuts across different Fed FOMC meeting dates What about Sell in May and Go Away in election years? Explaining how to tell what the options market is implying for a 1-standard deviation move Implied volatility around Nvidia earnings date scheduled for May 22nd How to calculate the implied move in a stock based on the options market Examining the at the money ATM straddle on Nvidia options expiring 2 days after earnings   Mentioned in this Episode   Is it 1994 All Over Again? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306   Podcast: Explaining How and Why Bonds Make or Lose Money https://open.spotify.com/episode/3AUT2DVbHfEQyJglpe70nP?si=wIFug8IfR1-sb_bX03qNHA   Previous Week's Podcast:   Market Correction | Mortgage Rates Higher | No Thanks 24-Hour Trading | Synthetic Options https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/market-correction-mortgage-rates-higher-no-thanks-24/id1432836154?i=1000653114012   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Jason discusses the surge in existing home sales by 9.5% in February, marking a two-year consecutive increase due to a slight rise in inventory. Fox Business highlights keeping mortgage rates under 7% for homebuyers. The show emphasizes the housing affordability crisis and potential impacts of the NAR lawsuit on realtor commissions, predicting market chaos. Despite media misreporting on commission changes, the segment stresses the need for real estate professionals in navigating complex transactions. It anticipates increased competition among brokers and agents, urging them to enhance service quality amid evolving market dynamics. Then Jason welcomes real estate analyst Rick Sharga. Rick discusses the housing market and economic trends. Despite concerns of a crash, he suggests a slow period with modest price increases rather than a downturn. He dismisses crash predictions, highlighting historical data showing home prices generally rise during recessions. Sharga addresses factors like consumer spending, job growth, inflation, and Fed policies influencing mortgage rates. He acknowledges the possibility of a mild recession due to Fed actions but emphasizes it may not significantly impact real estate if inventory remains low and distressed sellers are scarce. #cnbc #foxbusiness #neilCavuto #RickSharga #RealEstateTrends #HousingMarket #HomeSales #MortgageRates #NARLawsuit #AffordabilityCrisis #MarketAnalysis #FoxBusinessInsights Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:40 WSJ article: 9.5% surge home sales in FEB 3:11 Fox Business- over and under 7% supply/demand dynamics Rick Sharga interview 14:49 Rick's macro view on the housing market 18:39 A different supply and demand dynamic   21:57 GDP remains strong, unemployment and other factors 24:55 https://RESimpli.com/Jason/ 26:37 Wage growth and consumer confidence & spending and the debt trap 31:49 Inflation and the FED 34:56 FED Funds rate, the Yield curve and avoiding a recession   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Matt McLelland, VP of Sustainability and Innovation, Covenant joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why it all comes down to unit economics when fleets are evaluating new trucking technologies such as battery electric trucks and autonomous trucks. The conversation begins with Matt discussing how Covenant is thinking about implementing battery electric trucks into their fleet. With limited range and reduced weight capacities, the right lane and freight have to be matched up to ensure a successful run. The fleet of the future is actually going to be something that is made up of a lot different pieces of equipment that reflect the different and diverse needs of our customer base. – Matt McLellandReduced capacity comes with increased cost, as battery electric trucks cost roughly 50% more then traditional diesel trucks. Factor in stubborn inflation, slim margins and a Fed Funds interest rate of 5.33%, fleets are hamstrung when it comes financing the increased cost of battery electric trucks.Is a hybrid solution the right solution? As companies look to lower their carbon emissions, could electrified trailers be the solution? Or it could be renewable diesel or B100 (pure biodiesel)?Hybrid solutions that are not full on zero-emission vehicles, that's what I think the future is. – Matt McLellandThe costs to implement low carbon, zero-emissions technologies for trucks is going to cost more. For the business model to work, that cost is going to have to passed onto the consumer. But the economic reality is, consumers will not pay more for shipping as they are used to fast free shipping commonly known as the “Amazon effect“. Could the push towards low carbon and zero-emissions trucks inadvertently accelerate the implementation and adoption of autonomous trucks?It all comes down to the unit economics. – Matt McLellandAutonomous trucks offer better unit economics than traditional trucks, and the economics only get better as the size of the fleet increases. Covenant is taking a measured approach to autonomous trucking by rolling up their sleeves and developing relationships with the developers. This approach has led to commercial relationships with Aurora and Torc. Wrapping up the conversation, Matt shares his thoughts on the future of the trucking industry.Recorded on Friday, February 9, 2023--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and analysis on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Will interest rates come down in 2024? What is the economic outlook? What will happen with inventory by the time the rates go down? Should you buy real estate right now? Chad Zdenek, real estate investor, and owner of CSQ Properties, shares his knowledge.Read this entire interview here: http://tinyurl.com/8y6b9k57You are in tune with the economy and economics. We have some interesting news on interest rates recently; let's dive into that and see where your thoughts are for 2024 and 2025.The interest rates and how fast they increased have been a big shock to the real estate system. Any industry relying on borrowing has been challenged by the interest rate increases, and real estate has been hit particularly hard because we normally have 60 to 80% leverage on the commercial side, and that involves a lot of loans. Anyone on variable-rate loans has been feeling the pressure.At the Fed Funds meeting, they mentioned they're not planning on increasing rates. They didn't increase rates, shifting away from the narrative we've been hearing for a while, which was higher for longer, meaning these interest rates, which increased the fastest in 40 years, were expected to remain high. The Federal Reserve aimed to take some steam out of the economy, but they've seen that while unemployment is still low, inflation has come down. That's encouraging, and they indicated they are looking towards three interest rate decreases next year. The 10-Year treasury, on which many mortgages in the commercial world are based, has already been retreating, and that good news for investors with debt on their properties. It will also indirectly affect cap rates, correlated with interest rates. Cap rates, how we value properties, have expanded, meaning property values have gone down, and different real estate sectors have seen different decreases, but with interest rates coming down, we hope cap rates will compress, and values will go up.You started with multifamily and then moved to different asset classes; can you share your reasoning behind it? Why did you pick those asset classes?I'm investing in three asset classes: multifamily, medical office, and self-storage. For people newer to real estate, they might see real estate as an asset class, but within real estate, there are several different asset classes.I was heavily invested in multifamily and knew I should diversify because you never know what will happen. I diversified into self-storage properties, which has been great. I also invest in California and out of California. Living in LA, I'm one of the rare investors who invest in California and out of state. Diversifying within different asset classes has been a good way to spread out the risk, especially with tenant rules and regulations constantly evolving, they're a lot more strict with multifamily than with self storage. Migration patterns affect both asset classes similarly, but tenant laws and COVID restrictions apply only to multifamily, not self-storage. During COVID, seeing restrictions in multifamily, I realized my investors were exposed to legislative liabilities. Diversifying into self-storage, with less regulation but good returns, has worked well.The last 18 months have been crazy in the real estate world, and some people have a mutual fund or stock mindset, trying to time the market. A common saying in our world is that it's not about market timing; it's about time in the market. These should be long-term investments. Whether you buy at the bottom or 10% off the bottom, they should be viewed as long-term.

On Legal Docket, cases about bankruptcy and deportation; on the Monday Moneybeat, a strong jobs report and what the Fed Funds rate is; and celebrating the life and legacy of WORLD Founder Joel Belz (1941-2024). Plus, the Monday morning newsSupport The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donate.Additional support comes from Ambassadors Impact Network, where entrepreneurs can discover faith-aligned funding opportunities. More at ambassadorsimpact.comAnd from the Mission Focused Men for Christ Podcast, helping men better love their wives by understanding the needs of their hearts. That's Mission Focused Men for Christ Podcast, on any podcast app.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47Xsqk9 The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve met this week for their scheduled meeting and announced that … wait for it … they were not doing anything with interest rates. The market knew this was coming – futures have had a 100% chance of no increase or decrease in the Fed Funds rate at the January meeting for months – but markets went down -300 points after Fed chair, Jerome Powell, gave his customary press conference. The bond market went way up as yields dropped. And sure enough stocks caught up to bonds the very next day as the Dow jumped +370 points. Maybe this sounds to you like a lot of drama for one or two market days when everyone already knew what was going to happen, and you would be right. But the question that many are asking is – if it doesn't matter, why does it matter? In other words, why is market volatility so high and press attention so high about when the Fed will begin cutting rates? Maybe traders do dumb and speculative things but why do traders care about this so much? Why not focus on more important short term betting odds, like whether or not Travis and Taylor are going to get married? In this week's Dividend Cafe we explore the question of, “well, does it matter?” And to understand if it matters or not what the Fed does, we may want to understand what they do, exactly. This is a good one. So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Forecasts of short-term rates driven by Fed policy have been ever changing, but after the recent inflation print, it seems as though Fed Funds may have peaked. Investors looking to capture yields before they move lower may be able to do so through the bond market. Host Lauren Goodwin is joined by Thomas Musmanno and John Lawlor of MacKay Shields to discuss opportunities in short duration. 

The Fed's rampant rate increases have wreaked havoc on stocks in recent years. Yet we're perhaps finally seeing a light emerge at the end of the tunnel. Projections released by the Fed suggest that America's central bank will reduce its Fed Funds target rate multiple times during 2024. The Fed ultimately wants to reach a median target rate of 4.6% by the end of this year. Falling interest rates are generally good for business. It allows them to raise capital and more attractive rates and to begin reinvesting in growth projects once again. For investors in those businesses, falling interest rates translate into lower discount rates. This is the metric that institutional investors on Wall Street use to discount a company's future profits to the present in their discounted cash flow models. When a discount rate falls (which typically happens when the Fed reduces the Fed Funds rate), future cash flows get discounted at a lower rate. And you ultimately end up with a greater present valuation and a higher stock price. To subscribe for free to our 7investing podcast and have our episodes directly delivered to your Inbox, please join our free email list. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/7investing/message

It appears as though a lot of people got 2023 wrong. What happened happened, and what didn't happen, didn't happen. But the history books are actually based on the narrative that is attached to what happened.  I was thinking hard about what to say about 2023 that would be insightful and meaningful.  We could attach the narrative that In 2023 interest rates went up. Or did they? The yield on the 10 year treasury was 3.83% on January 1 and we closed out the year at a yield of 3.88 today, up slightly from yesterday's 3.77%. Hardly a monumental shift in a year. Yes the rate fluctuated substantially in the middle. In the end, it went sideways, it was a huge nothing burger.  We could say that interest rates went nowhere in 2023. It would actually be a true statement. But short term rates did increase in 2023 which definitely impacted many borrowers.  The Fed Funds rate went up from 4.5% at the start of 2023 to 5.5% today. When you look at the numbers in that context, it doesn't seem monumental either. If you take it back to March 2022, then you see the most rapid increase in rates in modern history. But here too, the conclusion is subjective.  ------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

This episode of In Search of Green Marbles was recorded on Wednesday, December 13th at 4.30pm, which was subsequent to the Fed's December Meeting and Press Conference.The week's episode featured Lundy Wright, Weiss's bond expert. In addition to providing his assessment of the Fed meeting, Lundy offered up his latest take on where things stand in the fight against inflation and how the Fed's meeting impacted that effort. Please check important disclosures at the end of the podcast. Timestamps:What is Lundy's take on the Fed's decision to insert the word “Any” in its latest statement? [2:25]What is the Fed's “Dot Plot” and can it be used to accurately predict future Fed Funds rate trends? [4:22]What could be the unintended consequences of Chairman Powell's dovish press conference and Fed statement? [12:40]In Lundy's view, how might the outcome of the latest Fed meeting influence housing affordability? [27:23]Resources: The Fed's dot plot: Breaking down the latest projectionsPresident Biden gives a rare take on interest ratesWhat is Fiscal Dominance?Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Higher for longer is a distant memory, with the 10 year treasury yield at 4.2%, from 5% in October. Stocks love this, because when the discount rate analysts use goes down, valuations go up. The European Central Bank looks like it will be the first developed economy central bank to cut rates, after the governor of the Bank of France said last week “barring any shock, rate hikes are now over. The question of a cut may arise when the time comes during 2024”. Also last week, the first Federal Reserve official implied rates in the United States could be cut. In a speech, Governor Chris Waller cited the Taylor Rule, that computes the optimal Fed Funds rate. Last year the Taylor rule implied the Fed funds rate should be as high as 8%. Now it's saying 5.3%, which is lower than the current Fed funds rate of 5.5%.

After boosting the Fed Funds rate 5 percentage points in a year and a half, the central bankers might finally be done with interest rate hikes. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Why the market is cheering recent CPI and labor data, and why it might mean we've hit the end of rising rates. - Results from Target, Wal-Mart, and Home Depot and what they say about the state of the consumer. - Warren Buffett's latest portfolio moves and why it isn't surprising that he's been a net seller of stocks recently. (19:11) The New Yorker's Heidi Blake explains the complicated world of carbon offsets and how incentives can get in the way of the environmental and financial impact they're intended to bring. Heidi Blake's New Yorker article The Great Cash Carbon Hustle is available here. (33:49) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Rockwell Automation and Vail Resorts. Stocks discussed: TGT, WMT, HD, AAPL, AXP, ROK, MTN Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Heidi Blake, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/468UHnU This morning, we had a slew of economic data that moved markets modestly to the upside in stocks and bonds in a fairly positive trading day throughout the session. Q2 GDP revision was largely unchanged, jobless claims were better than expected, and Core PCE revision was also unchanged. Yields moved lower across the curve following the releases, which put some wind in the sails for most risk assets today. The inverted yield curve is slowly but surely becoming less so as longer rates rise, and is now half of what it was a month ago at 47 bps on 2/10's from over 100 bps. With short rates anchored closer to Fed Funds, why are longer rates moving higher? A combination of the Fed's QT, Japan's exit of Yield Curve control, US budget deficits and less Treasury demand from China on falling exports. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com