Podcasts about labor statistics

Just when Wall Street thought the trade war was fading into the rearview mirror... TARIFFS ARE BACK! The latest escalation between the United States and Canada has suddenly injected another major dose of uncertainty into the financial markets. After trade negotiations broke down, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, while Canada announced plans for dollar-for-dollar retaliation beginning September 8. And now the stakes may be getting even higher. President Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and auto parts beginning January 1, 2027 if the dispute isn't resolved. That announcement immediately put pressure on automakers and raised new concerns about deeply integrated North American supply chains. So the big question for investors is: Are tariffs simply another negotiating tactic—or are we entering a new phase of the trade war that could actually change the outlook for inflation and interest rates? That's what we're breaking down on today's show. We'll discuss: What happened with Canada? How negotiations went from seemingly close to a deal to a major tariff escalation in a matter of days. Why 50% tariffs matter – Which products and industries could feel the greatest impact? Canada's retaliation – What happens when tariffs turn into a tit-for-tat trade war? The auto industry – Why Ford, GM, Stellantis and their suppliers could become ground zero for this fight. Inflation – Do tariffs ultimately get absorbed by companies, or passed along to consumers through higher prices? Bond yields – Could renewed inflation pressure push Treasury yields higher? The stock market – Which sectors stand to win—and which could get crushed—if the trade dispute continues? The U.S. dollar – Currency markets are already reacting, with the Canadian dollar falling sharply following the latest escalation. But there's another person suddenly thrown right into the middle of this... Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Warsh already has to navigate inflation, employment, economic growth, oil prices and a complicated interest-rate environment. Now add tariffs. Tariffs can create an especially difficult situation for the Federal Reserve because they potentially push prices higher while simultaneously slowing economic activity. That creates the scenario central bankers hate: Slower growth + higher prices. So we'll ask: Did the trade war just make Kevin Warsh's job a LOT more difficult? Warsh has previously indicated that the Fed should distinguish temporary price shocks caused by things such as tariffs, energy and supply disruptions from persistent underlying inflation. Now that philosophy could be put to the test. And the timing couldn't be much better. Warsh heads to Jackson Hole later this week, where investors will be looking for clues about inflation, economic growth and the future direction of interest rates. Suddenly, tariffs may become another major piece of that conversation. For additional research, follow U.S. Trade Representative for official U.S. trade policy, Federal Reserve for monetary policy and inflation information, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for CPI and other economic data. Listen now:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least 1.8 million Americans have been actively looking for a fulltime job for more than 27 weeks. That's over six months. In this episode, two people tell us what it's like to navigate a never-ending job search. Plus: A surge in lone star ticks threatens the cattle industry, McDonald's keeps huge amounts of data on frequent customers, and the national debt passes that $40 trillion threshold.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:The national debt hits $40 trillionTicks increasingly threaten the health and livelihood of ranchersAn Alabama cattle farm with a bird-tourism side hustle“Put me in, coach”: Navigating long-term unemployment in the low-hire economyHow the McDonald's mobile app compiled 515-page dossier on one reporter

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least 1.8 million Americans have been actively looking for a fulltime job for more than 27 weeks. That's over six months. In this episode, two people tell us what it's like to navigate a never-ending job search. Plus: A surge in lone star ticks threatens the cattle industry, McDonald's keeps huge amounts of data on frequent customers, and the national debt passes that $40 trillion threshold.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:The national debt hits $40 trillionTicks increasingly threaten the health and livelihood of ranchersAn Alabama cattle farm with a bird-tourism side hustle“Put me in, coach”: Navigating long-term unemployment in the low-hire economyHow the McDonald's mobile app compiled 515-page dossier on one reporter

Has AI actually helped you make more placements this year, or has it just been noise? Before you dive in, this is your last call for The Recruiting Agents Workshop with Seb Sharp, August 25 and 26. Two live build-along sessions where you will create an autonomous lead agent, a placement agent, and connect your entire tech stack, plus recordings, templates, and a week of Slack access to Seb after the sessions end. Grab your seat now: https://the-recruiting-agents-workshop.heysummit.com/ In this episode Benjamin Mena sits down with Dan McCarthy, Senior Talent Engineer at Zapier and one of the founding members of the a16z Talent Engineer Fellowship, to break down recruiting's newest role and how you can step into it before the rest of the industry catches on. Dan's path into this seat is anything but typical. He was a jazz musician, a New York bartender, a wine educator, and a CrossFit gym owner in Brooklyn before Shopify hired him into tech recruiting at 40 years old. He had never heard of an org chart. By his own telling, he led the entire engineering recruiting team in hires his very first quarter. Two layoffs later he landed at Zapier, where he was handed a blank canvas: build our talent intelligence function. What he built instead of dashboards is the heart of this conversation. Dan walks through the talent intelligence MCP he assembled in about a month using completely free APIs, including Indeed Hiring Lab, the Department of Labor, O*NET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and WARN Act data, so recruiters walk into every intake call armed with real compensation numbers, competitor hiring activity, and talent pool data. Then he gets specific about the agency version: what a solo recruiter or a two person shop can stand up over a single weekend to change their next client pitch. Benjamin and Dan also get into the ego build problem on LinkedIn and why screenshots of tools built yesterday are making everyone feel further behind than they actually are, the difference between building to learn and building to ship, who is reviewing your code and updating your API keys, whether a three person agency could really bill five to ten million dollars with a builder in one of the seats (Dan's honest answer: possible, but probably not in the next six to twelve months), the sales engineer ratio that may be coming to recruiting teams, and why Dan completely changed his mind about AI interview screens. If you have ever felt too far behind to start building, this episode is your permission slip. As Dan puts it, nobody is behind. This is day one. ⚡ The Recruiting Agents Workshop with Seb Sharp (August 25-26): https://the-recruiting-agents-workshop.heysummit.com/

Broadcast from KSQD, Santa Cruz on 8-13-2026: Dr. Dawn opens by reading an anatomy student's elegy to a body donor, reflecting on how modern medical education has moved away from full cadaver dissection toward pre-dissected specimens and models—and what she believes has been lost in that transition. Dr. Dawn dissects how hospital consolidation has become the primary driver of runaway U.S. healthcare costs. She contrasts a $16,000 knee replacement at Catawba Valley Medical Center with a $40,000 procedure for the same Blue Cross Blue Shield plan an hour away at Asheville's Mission Hospital—a facility formed by the 1998 merger of the town's two acute-care hospitals and later acquired by HCA in 2018. Mission now charges 333% of Medicare rates (versus a 280% benchmark), and state inspectors have issued three "immediate jeopardy" findings since HCA's takeover, consistent with academic findings that hospital care quality drops when competition disappears. She notes that CMS-required price disclosures since 2021 finally make this transparent, and calls for regulatory prevention of hospital mergers—especially not-for-profit to for-profit conversions—in single or two-hospital markets. Dr. Dawn analyzes the 3.1% year-over-year drop in prescription drug prices reported through July—the sharpest decline since 1963. She attributes most of it to Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which partially rescinded George W. Bush-era Medicare Part D restrictions that had statutorily prohibited price negotiation, saving taxpayers roughly $6 billion in the first six months of implementation. Additional contributors include GLP-1 compounding competition, blockbuster drugs losing exclusivity, and Bureau of Labor Statistics methodology that swaps generics into the price index six months after brand patent expiration. She calls for consumer-facing apps that help patients shop hospital prices the same way they shop cars. Dr. Dawn covers the emerging science of dormant tumor cells—cancer cells that shed from primary tumors even before diagnosis, hide in bone marrow and lymph nodes, and enter a hibernation state (feeding off cellular residue via autophagy) that shields them from chemotherapy targeting rapidly dividing cells. New York researchers have identified proteins by which lung macrophages actively reinforce dormancy, but immune disruption from COVID-19, influenza, aging, and chronic stress can trigger reactivation. She emphasizes lifestyle protection for cancer survivors: minimal alcohol, Mediterranean diet, and five daily cups of green tea for the EGCG dormancy-maintaining effect seen in cell culture. A caller argues for single-payer healthcare and questions whether Medigap insurance is worth $287 monthly. Dr. Dawn explains the math: for a $100,000 hospital bill, 20% coinsurance is $20,000, making the $2,400 annual premium reasonable catastrophic-risk protection—though skipping it is a defensible bet for very low-utilization patients. She notes those whose income drops to Medi-Cal eligibility often end up with better coverage than middle-class seniors. The same caller then presents a differential diagnosis of himself as likely multiple sclerosis based on ChatGPT consultation, describing balance loss requiring hallway wall-guidance, dramatic vision changes, and fasciculations. Dr. Dawn walks through prompt engineering for medical AI: request differential lists ordered by probability of frequency in the population rather than symptom-fit alone. She notes symmetric symptoms argue against MS, suggests checking electrolytes (particularly calcium), and emphasizes that a physical examination should precede imaging to avoid incidentalomas that trigger cascading invasive workups—cautioning that without a primary care doctor, he lacks an advocate within the system.

A candidate aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America has been defeated in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, marking a major upset in a race the candidate had been expected to win.At 3:34 a.m. ET on Aug. 12, the Associated Press called the race for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who beat state Rep. Francesca Hong by the thinnest of margins, 39.8 percent to Hong's 39.4 percent.Falling energy prices helped inflation pressures ease last month, new government data released on August 12 show. July's U.S. annual inflation rate slowed to 3.4 percent, from 3.5 percent in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Any jobs report, by necessity, is going to be vague and subject to revision, but the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a pretty clear picture: America hasn't added as many jobs as hoped or expected this summer, and the labor market is looking rough.Guest: Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan and “deputy platypus” at Platypus Economics.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Any jobs report, by necessity, is going to be vague and subject to revision, but the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a pretty clear picture: America hasn't added as many jobs as hoped or expected this summer, and the labor market is looking rough.Guest: Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan and “deputy platypus” at Platypus Economics.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Any jobs report, by necessity, is going to be vague and subject to revision, but the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a pretty clear picture: America hasn't added as many jobs as hoped or expected this summer, and the labor market is looking rough.Guest: Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan and “deputy platypus” at Platypus Economics.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: following 3 "Disturbances" in the Atlantic; the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at the end of last week, reported July Nonfarm Payrolls; do private sector jobs boost the economy more than government jobs?; Transport Merger & Acquisition news; oil reacts to the latest events in the war with Iran, Houthis' threatens Saudi Arabia, increased attacks in the Ukraine-Rusia War and U.S. crude oil inventories; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and yes, some opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: following 3 "Disturbances" in the Atlantic; the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at the end of last week, reported July Nonfarm Payrolls; do private sector jobs boost the economy more than government jobs?; Transport Merger & Acquisition news; oil reacts to the latest events in the war with Iran, Houthis' threatens Saudi Arabia, increased attacks in the Ukraine-Rusia War and U.S. crude oil inventories; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and yes, some opinions. 

Bull markets don't last forever. The problem is... nobody rings a bell at the top. With the major indexes pushing near record territory, optimism remains high and investors continue pouring money into stocks. But a great viewer question got me thinking: What could actually cause this bull market to end? There isn't one simple answer. In today's episode, we'll break down the biggest threats facing the market and identify the warning signs traders and investors should be watching before sentiment changes. We'll discuss: Inflation – Could another acceleration in prices force the Federal Reserve to become more aggressive? Interest rates – At what point do higher rates become too much for stocks to handle? Bond yields – Could rising Treasury yields finally pull money away from equities? Unemployment – How much deterioration in the labor market would signal genuine economic trouble? Corporate earnings – Ultimately, stock prices need profits. What happens if earnings growth begins to stall? Valuations – How expensive is too expensive, especially in AI and technology? Geopolitics – Could an unexpected global event become the catalyst that finally changes investor sentiment? Market psychology – When everyone becomes bullish, complacency itself can become a risk. The key is understanding that none of these indicators exists in isolation. Inflation impacts interest rates. Interest rates impact bond yields. Higher borrowing costs impact businesses and consumers. Economic weakness impacts employment. And eventually, all of it flows through to corporate earnings. That's why calling the end of a bull market based on one indicator can be a huge mistake. Bull markets rarely die because of one headline. They end when the underlying conditions supporting higher prices begin to change. So what are those conditions telling us right now? That's what we'll break down on today's show. Listen now:

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Oil extended its recent gains as Iran rejected talks with the US and a deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz remained elusive. Treasuries declined. Meanwhile, a gauge of Asian stocks rose 0.4%, with gains for South Korean and Japanese chipmakers. The Kospi Index climbed as much as 2% before trimming its advance, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. among the winners. The move followed Friday's Wall Street rally after soft US jobs data lifted equities, sending the S&P 500 Index to a record high. Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts spoke to Jasmine Duan, Senior Investment Strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia. And prices paid by US consumers probably inched up marginally last month after falling for the first time in six years, a welcome tempering in recent war-driven inflationary pressures. The closely watched consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in the prior month, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Wednesday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release. In the wake of Friday's weak July jobs report, the moderation in price growth may help alleviate some of the inflation anxiety at the Federal Reserve after three officials dissented on July 29 in favor of raising interest rates. Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts spoke to Illiana Jain, International Economist at Westpac.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's Casual Friday on The Majority Report On today's program: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July jobs report and for a third-straight month the numbers are bleak. The U.S. lost 23,000 jobs last month. Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett makes the media rounds offering a variety of excuses and justifications for the weak jobs report. David Weigel, journalist covering politics at Semafor, joins to recap the week's news. In the Fun Half: CNN fact checks RFK, Jr.'s claims that ICUs across the country were empty at the height of COVID. Sen. John Husted takes to X to call for Max Miller's resignation. Donald Trump suggests that any possibility of munition depletion is Joe Biden's fault. Stephen Crowder thinks that Abdul El-Sayed is an Islamist who wants to implement Sharia Law. Crowder than implies El-Sayed is a pervert for admitting his For You page on IG recommends him OnlyFans models. Crowder brags that his For You page is all karate guy videos. all that and more. To connect and organize with your local ICE rapid response team visit ICERRT.com The Congress switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. You can use this number to connect with either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives. Follow us on TikTok here: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the AM Quickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase Check out today's sponsors: ROCKET MONEY: Let Rocket Money help you reach your financial goals faster: RocketMoney.com/MAJORITY SUNSET LAKE CBD: Head to SunsetLakeCBD.com and use code BIRTHDAY26 at checkout to save 25% on everything sitewide. Spend over $100 and get a bonus gift on top of it all. Sale ends August 17th at Midnight.  @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattLech On Instagram: @MrBryanVokey Check out Matt's show, Left Reckoning, on YouTube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Check out Matt Binder's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/mattbinder Subscribe to Brandon's YouTube channel: https://ww.youtube.com/Th3Discourse Check out Ava Raiza's music here: https:/www.youtube.com/avaraiza

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said Aug. 7 she will not support Todd Blanche for attorney general, putting Blanche's nomination in jeopardy. Murkowski said in a post on X that she believes the country needs an attorney general “who will check the worst impulses of this administration” and that she's not confident that person is Blanche.Murkowski also said she is concerned that if Blanche is confirmed, the government will proceed with a fund of nearly $2 billion to award people who bring forth claims they were targeted unfairly by the government.The U.S. labor market stalled last month as the economy unexpectedly lost jobs, new government data shows. Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, from a downwardly revised 20,000 in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This fell short of the average monthly gain of 34,000 over the last 12 months.

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • US and global markets all-time highs • US nonfarm payroll and unemployment data • Yen intervention Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: FactSet, as of 8/7/2026. S&P 500 Total Returns Index and MSCI World Total Returns Index, daily, 6/1/2026 – 8/7/2026. 2. Source: FactSet, as of 8/6/2026. MSCI World Total Return Index, monthly, 1/1/1970 – 7/31/2026. All-time high is calculated according to month-end numbers. 3. Source: Trading Economics, as of 8/7/2026. United States Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, June 2026 – July 2026. 4. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 8/7/2026. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, July 2026. 5. Source: CME Group, as of 8/7/2026. Target Rate Probability for Federal Reserve Meeting in September 2026. 8/6/2026. 6. Source: International Monetary Fund via FRED, as of 8/4/2026. Global price of Energy index, January 2026 – June 2026. 7. Source: US Treasury Department, Bureau of the Public Debt, as of 8/6/2026. Debt held from foreign and US government, the Federal Reserve, and US Investors as of 11/30/2025. 8. Source: The Wall Street Journal, as of 8/6/2026. “The Worries that Drove Uncle Sam to Buy Yen”, 8/3/2026. Want to dig deeper? • Ken on how you should view jobs data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojJfQdPvizs&t=13s • Why a weak yen doesn't spell doom for Japanese stocks: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/pumping-up-the-yen Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview7Aug2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Kevin covers and discusses the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported Initial Jobless Claims, additionally, their Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the 2nd Quarter U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Report: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey; the U.S. Senate introduced the Staged Accident Fraud Prevention Act and a couple of States have enacted or will be enacting their own similar measures and hiring investigators; oil prices react to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and Yemen's Houthis attacking "Saudi deployments"; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July and hiring in the prior two months was revised lower, suggesting the labor market is weaker than previously thought after surprising strength earlier this year.Nonfarm payrolls decreased 23,000 last month following a combined 103,000 downward revision to the May and June figures, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as labor force participation continued to slide, and wage growth slowed. Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Damian Sassower break down the numbers with: Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at CitiStephanie Roth, Wolfe Research Chief Economist See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin covers and discusses the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported Initial Jobless Claims, additionally, their Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the 2nd Quarter U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Report: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey; the U.S. Senate introduced the Staged Accident Fraud Prevention Act and a couple of States have enacted or will be enacting their own similar measures and hiring investigators; oil prices react to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and Yemen's Houthis attacking "Saudi deployments"; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: enjoying show on the deck and summer memories; U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Report; the latest estimate for the 2027 Social Security Cost of Living Allowance (COLA); the U.S. Commerce Department released data on the June U.S. Trade Deficit; payroll processor ADP released their July National Employment Report; oil prices react to increased expectations of an end to the Iran War, reports of an attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea; Kevin has the details, digs into the details, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insight and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: enjoying show on the deck and summer memories; U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Report; the latest estimate for the 2027 Social Security Cost of Living Allowance (COLA); the U.S. Commerce Department released data on the June U.S. Trade Deficit; payroll processor ADP released their July National Employment Report; oil prices react to increased expectations of an end to the Iran War, reports of an attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea; Kevin has the details, digs into the details, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insight and opinions.

Evan Taylor, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Arizona, joined Arizona's Morning News to talk about new state employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a department for wonks, by wonks. But under the dual pressures of the changing nature of work—like the growing gig economy—and an administration that doesn't accept bad news, should next week's jobs report be taken with a grain of salt? Guest: Ben Casselman, chief economics correspondent for The New York Times.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a department for wonks, by wonks. But under the dual pressures of the changing nature of work—like the growing gig economy—and an administration that doesn't accept bad news, should next week's jobs report be taken with a grain of salt? Guest: Ben Casselman, chief economics correspondent for The New York Times.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a department for wonks, by wonks. But under the dual pressures of the changing nature of work—like the growing gig economy—and an administration that doesn't accept bad news, should next week's jobs report be taken with a grain of salt? Guest: Ben Casselman, chief economics correspondent for The New York Times.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a department for wonks, by wonks. But under the dual pressures of the changing nature of work—like the growing gig economy—and an administration that doesn't accept bad news, should next week's jobs report be taken with a grain of salt? Guest: Ben Casselman, chief economics correspondent for The New York Times.Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD.Need to set up your Slate Plus feed? If you subscribed through Slate.com, check out our FAQ at slate.com/podcastfaqs for easy instructions. Members subscribed via Apple Podcasts get automatic access—no setup required. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • The Fed's recent interest rate decision • US first estimate for Q2 2026 GDP growth • The eurozone's first estimate for Q2 2026 GDP growth Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: Trading Economics, as of 7/30/2026. United States Fed Funds interest rate, 7/29/2026. 2. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of 7/31/2026. US GDP growth, annualized, Q1 2026 – Q2 2026. 3. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 7/31/2026. Y/y US Headline and Core CPI Inflation, January 2026 – June 2026. 4. Source: FactSet, Finaeon, Inc., as of 7/31/2026. S&P 500 Total Return Index annual returns categorized by US real GDP annual percent changes of the following year, yearly, 1970 – 2025. 5. Source: Eurostat, as of 7/31/2026. Euro area GDP growth, annualized, Q1 2026 – Q2 2026. 6. Source: Eurostat, as of 7/31/2026. Euro area y/y GDP growth, by country, Q1 2026 – Q2 2026. 7. Source: Trading Economics, as of 7/30/2026. Eurozone Headline HICP Inflation, January 2026 – June 2026. 8. Source: FactSet, Macrobond, as of 7/30/2026. GDP-weighted developed markets excluding US government bond yield spreads (10Y – 3M), daily, 1/1/2025 – 7/16/2026, eurozone y/y loan growth, monthly, 6/30/2023 – 5/31/2026. Want to dig deeper? • Ken on why the Fed shouldn't rush to hike rates: https://tinyurl.com/ykdedvcz • What you need to know about GDP and why it's important: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm4iOcLX62M Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview31July2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 18,500 professional tailors, dressmakers and seamstresses in 2024. That’s a 30% drop from a decade before. The median age for the profession is 54, and unlike other skilled labor industries, not enough young people are filling in for those who are retiring.   What are the challenges of this work and why don’t more young people want to do it? To answer these questions and more we are joined by two professional sewists in Oregon. Stephanie Mendes is the owner of Love Stephanie Apparel and is an instructor at the Portland Fashion Institute. Mackinley James is known as the Fibrarian and is based in Portland.  

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to decide whether to raise, hold, or cut the federal funds rate, affecting borrowing costs across bank loans, venture debt, mortgages, and corporate bonds. Policymakers will weigh inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis alongside labor indicators such as unemployment, job openings, and wage growth. Market gauges including Fed funds futures, the CME FedWatch Tool, and the two-year Treasury yield will signal expectations and move financing conditions. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows tighter lending standards for small firms, raising spreads and covenants. A hike, hold, or cut would carry distinct implications for variable and fixed rate borrowing. Founders should monitor the policy statement and projections, manage variable rate exposure, and stress test cash flows for multiple scenarios.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As AI's capability grows, what once-human tasks will it be able to do, by when? What will those displaced humans do? We look to the automation revolutions of the past to see what the historical pattern has been, and explore in what ways AI is different that could change the pattern. The pattern will change. The implications are immense. SourcesLeontief's horse. Wassily Leontief, 1983, National Academy of Engineering symposium The Long-Term Impact of Technology on Employment and Unemployment. Quote and horse-population figures via Brynjolfsson & McAfee, "Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?", Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horsesSoftware developer pay. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm · Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm · Total-comp figure: Levels.fyi (2026).AI timelines (experts). Katja Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI" (2023 survey, 2,778 researchers): https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdfAI timelines (forecasters). Metaculus (community forecasts; live figures): "first general AI system" https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/ · "weakly general AI" https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/Goldman Sachs. "An AI Job Apocalypse?", Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (Goldman's own view is that the disruption is temporary.)Occupational exposure. Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, "GPTs are GPTs," Science 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 · working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130Entry-level cracks. Stanford Digital Economy Lab, "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI" (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdfCurrent labor data. Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, "Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence," Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts (Note: Anthropic funds both the models and this research.)Depression unemployment anchor. U.S. unemployment peaked near 25% in 1933 (verify exact figure before citing on air). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  What Does This Week’s Market Volatility Mean for Your Retirement Portfolio? By Tom Dupree, Founder, Dupree Financial Group Inflation cooled. The big banks beat expectations. And somehow, it was still a wild week in the market. If you’ve been watching your account balance bounce around and wondering whether any of it has anything to do with the actual value of what you own, here’s the short answer: usually not. Most of what moved the market this week wasn’t new information about businesses — it was leverage, technical trading, and forced selling. That distinction matters more for your retirement than almost anything else you’ll read this month, because it tells you when to act and when to simply hold on. This week’s episode of The Tom Dupree Show walked through four separate stories — cooling inflation, strong bank earnings, a leveraged-ETF blowup on the other side of the world, and a regulatory fight over how often companies should report earnings — that all point to the same lesson: know what you own, know why the price is moving, and don’t confuse someone else’s forced selling with your own emergency. Key Takeaways Inflation cooled to 3.5% year-over-year in June, but the Fed’s new chair has questioned whether the 2% target is even the right one — the ground rules for bonds and rate-sensitive investments could shift. Bank profits this quarter came mostly from paying less on deposits, not from a borrowing boom — a reminder that cash flow, not headlines, tells the real story. A leveraged single-stock ETF collapse in South Korea forced hundreds of thousands of retail accounts into liquidation — a case study in what daily-compounding leverage does to a portfolio. Semiconductor stocks have swung hard on technical signals, not fundamentals — which can create real opportunity for patient, long-term owners. A federal proposal to let companies report earnings twice a year instead of four times has reignited a real debate about transparency versus short-termism. Why Does the Market Feel So Unpredictable Right Now? If you’re 55, 65, or 75 and watching a retirement account that’s supposed to fund the next 30 or 40 years of your life, a week like this one is unsettling. The headlines contradict each other: inflation is cooling, but chip stocks are getting hammered one day and ripping higher the next. Banks are thriving, but somewhere on the other side of the world, hundreds of thousands of retail investors just lost their entire trading accounts overnight. It’s a lot to hold at once, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether any of it should change what you do with your own money. Here’s the honest answer: for most retirees holding a diversified, income-producing portfolio, almost none of it should. But understanding why requires pulling apart what actually happened this week — and separating the noise from the signal. What Actually Happened This Week — The Data Start with the good news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline inflation cooled to 3.5% year-over-year in June, with core inflation (which strips out food and energy) coming in at 2.6% — both below what economists expected, and producer prices actually declined for the month. That’s a meaningfully better inflation picture than markets were braced for. But the Fed’s target isn’t necessarily fixed anymore. Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman this spring, has openly questioned the assumptions behind the central bank’s longstanding 2% inflation goal and launched a broader review of how the Fed operates. For retirees who own bonds or rate-sensitive income investments, that’s not a footnote — it’s a reason to pay attention to what “the target” even means over the next few years, rather than assuming the old rules still apply. Meanwhile, bank earnings came in strong — but not for the reason most people assume. The lift came primarily from banks paying less to fund themselves (short-term deposit rates have fallen faster than the loans on their books have repriced), not from a fresh wave of borrowing. It’s a good environment for financial stocks, but it’s a funding-cost story more than a booming-economy story, and that distinction matters if you’re trying to judge whether the rally has legs. Then there’s the semiconductor sector, which has been the market’s most volatile corner. Taiwan Semiconductor, the company that manufactures the vast majority of the world’s advanced AI chips, reported June revenue up nearly 68% year-over-year, a genuinely extraordinary number driven by AI infrastructure demand. And yet chip stocks broadly have been whipping up and down for reasons that have very little to do with numbers like that one. A lot of that action is technical: when a stock breaks below a widely watched moving average, institutional trading algorithms are programmed to sell, regardless of what the underlying business is doing. That selling then triggers more selling. It looks like panic. It’s often just mechanics. The starkest illustration of what leverage does in a downturn came out of South Korea this month, where a wave of new single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix triggered margin calls on more than 1.2 million retail trading accounts, with roughly 320,000 to 360,000 of those accounts fully liquidated in a matter of days. These products were designed to move twice the daily price swing of a single stock — which sounds appealing on the way up and is devastating on the way down, because the losses compound daily rather than tracking the stock’s actual return over time. It’s an ocean away from Lexington, Kentucky, but the lesson travels: leverage doesn’t just add risk, it changes the math entirely. Finally, there’s a quieter but genuinely important story developing in Washington. The SEC has proposed letting public companies choose to report earnings twice a year instead of four times, a change championed by President Trump and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins as a way to reduce short-term pressure on management teams. The idea splits reasonable people: less frequent reporting could free executives to run their businesses for the next several years instead of the next ninety days, but it could also mean investors — including retirees who depend on knowing exactly what they own — get less information, less often. This week’s news cycle also included a primetime presidential address in which Trump alleged that newly declassified intelligence showed foreign interference — including from China — in the 2020 election, along with claims of voter registration fraud in Michigan. Election security officials, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, have said they’ve found no evidence that any votes were altered in past elections. Whatever your read on the speech, it fed into a broader theme running through the whole hour: how much can you trust the numbers an institution hands you, whether that’s a vote count or a government inflation report? It’s why we do our own research instead of relying solely on government statistics or Wall Street’s sell-side analysts, and it’s the same instinct that should guide how you evaluate any claim, official or otherwise. The Reframe: Manufactured Volatility vs. Real Risk Here’s the framework we come back to on nearly every episode of the show, and it’s the one thing we want you to take from this week’s news: there is a real difference between manufactured volatility and real risk, and confusing the two is one of the most expensive mistakes a retiree can make. Manufactured volatility is what happens when a stock’s price swings because of leverage unwinding, algorithmic trading around technical levels, or funds racing to exit ahead of a quarterly number — not because the underlying business got worse. The Korean ETF collapse is manufactured volatility in its purest form: a Samsung or SK Hynix shareholder holding actual shares, with no leverage, watched the same news and the same earnings power, just without the forced-selling spiral. Real risk is different. Real risk is a company losing its competitive position, cutting its dividend, or piling on debt it can’t service. Real risk should change what you own. Manufactured volatility, more often than not, should not. The trouble is that from the outside, both look identical on a stock chart. A share price falling 10% doesn’t come labeled “manufactured” or “real.” Telling the difference requires actually knowing the business you own — its cash flow, its dividend history, its balance sheet — well enough to judge whether this week’s headline changed anything about that story. That’s the diligence part of the job, and there’s no shortcut around it. How Should Retirement Investors Respond to This Kind of Volatility? At Dupree Financial Group, this is exactly why our approach centers on dividend-paying stocks and bonds rather than chasing whatever sector is moving fastest. When you own a company for the income it generates — not for a price target — a week of manufactured volatility becomes far less threatening, and sometimes it becomes an opportunity. When institutions are forced to sell a good company for reasons that have nothing to do with its fundamentals, the price drop that scares one investor is simply a better entry point for another. That’s not a guarantee of a favorable outcome — all investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal — but it’s a fundamentally different posture than reacting to every headline. Seven Steps to Retirement-Proof Your Portfolio Against Manufactured Volatility Know what you own, line by line. Pull up your statement and be able to explain, in one sentence each, why you own every major holding. If you can’t, that’s the first thing to fix — not the market. Separate the headline from the business. Before reacting to a price move, ask whether anything actually changed about the company’s earnings, dividend, or balance sheet — or whether it’s a technical or leverage-driven move like the ones described above. Keep leveraged and single-stock ETFs out of retirement money entirely. These products are built for daily traders, not long-term holders. The Korean ETF collapse is a real-world example of what daily compounding leverage can do to an account in a matter of days. Read past the quarterly headline number. Whether or not the reporting-frequency rules change, judge a company on multi-year cash flow and dividend trends, not a single quarter’s beat or miss. Keep a watchlist of quality companies for when panic creates a discount. When forced selling knocks a good business down for reasons unrelated to its fundamentals, that’s the moment long-term investors get paid for their patience. Revisit your income plan, not just your account balance. A retirement portfolio’s job is to produce cash flow you can live on for 30 to 40 years. Judge a volatile week by whether your income stream held up — not by the number on the login screen. Get a second set of eyes on your portfolio. If you’re not sure whether what you own is built to withstand this kind of volatility, or whether you’re carrying more leverage or concentration risk than you realize, that’s exactly what a portfolio review is for. Frequently Asked Questions Is a leveraged ETF a good way to boost my retirement returns? No. Leveraged ETFs reset and compound daily, so their long-term return can diverge sharply from the underlying stock’s actual performance — including large losses even when the stock has technically risen over time. They’re built for short-term traders, not retirement accounts. Does cooling inflation mean the Fed will cut interest rates soon? Not necessarily. While June’s cooler CPI reading supports the case for rate cuts, the Fed’s new chairman has signaled openness to rethinking the central bank’s approach to its inflation target, adding real uncertainty to the timeline for any rate decisions. Why do stock prices swing so much when a company’s earnings didn’t change? Much of the day-to-day movement in popular stocks comes from technical trading, algorithmic strategies tied to chart levels, and leveraged funds being forced to buy or sell — not from new information about the business itself. That’s manufactured volatility, not real risk. What does the debate over quarterly earnings reports mean for individual investors? If the SEC’s proposal is adopted, some companies may report financial results only twice a year instead of four times. That could reduce short-term pressure on management, but it may also mean investors get less frequent, less detailed information about what they actually own. How do I know if my retirement portfolio is built to handle volatility? Start by confirming you can explain why you own every major holding and that none of your retirement money sits in leveraged or single-stock products. A complimentary portfolio review with a fee-only fiduciary advisor is the fastest way to get an honest, unbiased answer. The Bottom Line Weeks like this one will keep happening. Leverage will keep building up somewhere and unwinding somewhere else. Traders will keep reacting to chart levels instead of cash flow. What won’t change is the difference between a business that’s actually worth less than it was last week and a stock price that simply got caught in someone else’s forced selling. Learn to tell those two things apart, build your income around companies you understand, and a volatile week stops being a threat to your retirement — it starts being background noise, or even opportunity. Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to take advantage of volatility like we saw this week — instead of getting knocked around by it — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400  |  Visit: dupreefinancial.com You Might Also Like Catch up on past episodes of The Tom Dupree Show — our full podcast archive, updated every week. Meet the team at Dupree Financial Group — learn about our fee-only, fiduciary approach and the people behind it. [PLACEHOLDER — link to a prior show notes/blog post on dividend investing fundamentals once a confirmed URL is available] About the Author: Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group and host of The Tom Dupree Show, heard weekly across Central Kentucky radio and podcast. With 47 years in the investment business, starting in municipal bonds in 1978, Tom built DFG’s investment philosophy around one idea: retirement money should generate income you can see, not just a balance you hope holds up. Dupree Financial Group is an independent, fee-only fiduciary Registered Investment Advisor based in Lexington, Kentucky. REGULATORY DISCLAIMER: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance of any market index or security is not indicative of future results. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only fiduciary and does not receive commissions on any products or securities discussed. 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The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • US-Iran Conflict • US Inflation • New UK Prime Minister Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: MarketWatch, as of 7/17/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 1/1/2026 – 7/16/2026. 2. Source: MarketWatch, as of 7/17/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 1/1/2022 – 12/31/2022. 3. Source: MarketWatch, as of 7/17/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 7/16/2026. 4. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 7/14/2026. Y/y US Headline and Core CPI Inflation, January 2026 – June 2026. 5. Source: Macrobond, as of 7/6/2026. Y/y percent change in M2 (money supply) for US, UK, eurozone and Japan, local currencies, monthly, May 2025 – May 2026. Want to dig deeper? • What June's inflation cool down means for markets: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/on-the-june-inflation-cooldown • How bond markets are reacting to a UK politics shakeup: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/global-vs-local-uk-bond-yield-edition Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview17July2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

What the heck is going on with the restaurant labor market right now?This week's episode of the Restaurant Business podcast A Deeper Dive features Chad Moutray, chief economist with the National Restaurant Association.We wanted Moutray on the podcast to make some sense of the most recent jobs report. The industry shed 33,000 jobs in June, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics cut the previous month's estimate by 10,000 jobs.That turned what had been a seemingly improving labor market into a weaker one. Moutray helps us understand these numbers and what they say about the restaurant industry at the moment. We also talk about the economy and many other issues.We're talking about the labor market on A Deeper Dive so please check it out. 

Rosa Goldensohn, contributing writer at The City Reporter, discusses her story on the large number of New Yorkers scammed out of SNAP benefits and the state's failure to address the issue. Photo: NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 13: A grocery store stands along a street in Brooklyn on July 13, 2026 in New York City. The Urban Institute released new data that found more Americans using credit cards and other means to cover their grocery bills as food prices continue to rise, along with other necessities. The study found that a cumulative 32% increase in food costs over the last five years has forced more than one in four working-age Americans into credit card debt to cover their grocery bills. According to the the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for "food at home" - the cost of groceries - increased by 2.7% between May, 2025 and May, 2026. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)     Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released fresh consumer price index numbers, which showed that consumer prices actually fell 0.4% month over month in June. The year-over-year inflation rate, meanwhile, clocked in at 3.5% — down from 4.2% in May but still higher than the Federal Reserve's target. We'll discuss, then learn what's behind raising hay costs and how new U.S. foreign aid contracts are shaping healthcare on the African continent.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Stories featured in this episode:Higher hay costs for farmers could spell higher beef and dairy prices for consumersThe new currency of global health aid: data

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released fresh consumer price index numbers, which showed that consumer prices actually fell 0.4% month over month in June. The year-over-year inflation rate, meanwhile, clocked in at 3.5% — down from 4.2% in May but still higher than the Federal Reserve's target. We'll discuss, then learn what's behind raising hay costs and how new U.S. foreign aid contracts are shaping healthcare on the African continent.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Stories featured in this episode:Higher hay costs for farmers could spell higher beef and dairy prices for consumersThe new currency of global health aid: data

How much of your life -- and everyone's -- is a compulsive, futile effort to deny your own death? What happens when you see what's really happening?SourcesLeontief's horse. Wassily Leontief, 1983, National Academy of Engineering symposiumHumans and Horses. Brynjolfsson & McAfee, “Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?”, Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horsesSoftware developer pay. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm · Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm Total-comp figure: Levels.fyi (2026).AI timelines (experts). Katja Grace et al., “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2023 survey, 2,778 researchers): https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdfGoldman Sachs. “An AI Job Apocalypse?”, Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (Goldman's own view is that the disruption is temporary.)Occupational exposure. Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, “GPTs are GPTs,” *Science* 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 · working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130Stanford Digital Economy Lab, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI” (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdfCurrent labor data. Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, “Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence,” Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bloomberg Philanthropies just committed $90 million to get high school students directly into registered apprenticeship programs across 10 cities. Chattanooga got approximately $9 million of it. And UA Local 43 — chartered in 1890 and at near full employment today — is part of the team building the program. On today's trades day episode of America's Work Force Union Podcast, UA Local 43 Plumbers and Steamfitters JATC Training Coordinator Joe Coke and Business Manager Matt Johnson discuss how a partnership with community workforce organization Chattanooga 2.0 and IBEW helped land Chattanooga's share of the initiative, what a direct high school pathway into a registered apprenticeship program looks like in practice and how Local 43's most recent apprentice class drew 200 applications from people aged 17 to 50. With 1,300 members at near full employment, new projects added to the pipeline weekly and the Bureau of Labor Statistics projecting 44,000 plumbers, pipe fitters and steam fitters needed annually nationwide, both guests described the moment as one of the brightest in the Local's 136-year history. Visit ualocal43.org to learn more.

The microwave first emerged in the 1950s and has since become a common fixture in kitchens worldwide. 2018 data from Statista showed that 93% of UK household now own a microwave, with that figure also being over 90% in the United States according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Love it or hate it; you can't deny that it's hard to beat the microwave for convenience when it comes to quickly reheating food. It operates using the principle of electromagnetic wave radiation, by agitating the water molecules in our food to generate heat.  What kinds of foods are you talking about? What about meat and fish? In under 3 minutes, we answer your questions! To listen to the last episodes, you can click here: ⁠⁠What does eating junk food do to our brains?⁠⁠ ⁠⁠How can you use Tinder safely?⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Can naps keep the brain healthy?⁠⁠ A podcast written and realised by Joseph Chance. First broadcast: 27/01/2024 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What do uneven benefits changes from mega corporations tell us about how these workplaces value women? In the past few months, both Deloitte and Zoom have publicly announced significant changes to particular portions of their employee benefits packages. These adjustments amount to telling certain employees (mostly women) that they matter less than others.  By slashing paid family and medical leave and paid time off for “support roles,” Deloitte is effectively hamstringing the predominantly female portion of their staff - those workers in positions like finance, admin, and HR (and the changes also impact IT and marketing). Comparatively, they confirmed that no deductions will befall employees in client-facing positions. In this episode, I break down what companies are saying when they curb vital childcare and parental benefits for the portion of their workforce that shoulders the bulk of caregiving responsibilities. Learn more about this “gender-scrubbing” form of sexism that perpetuates workplace inequity, including: How companies use language to erase women from the narrative; The dangerous precedent that a change like this sets; Why not all two-tier benefit structures are made equal; Four steps you can take to make your voice heard. Related Links: Episode 451, The Impact of Return-to-Office Mandates on Working Moms - https://www.bossedup.org/podcast/episode451 Episode 540, The Double Disadvantage: AI, Women, and the Future of Work -  https://www.bossedup.org/podcast/episode540 CXM, Deloitte's Two-Tier Benefits Cut: Smart Cost Management or a Signal About Who Matters? - https://cxm.world/employee-experience/deloittes-two-tier-benefits-cut-smart-cost-management-or-a-signal-about-who-matters/ HR Executive, PTO pullback: Did Deloitte, Zoom just set a new precedent? - https://hrexecutive.com/pto-pullback-did-deloitte-zoom-just-set-a-new-precedent/ Inc, The Great Rollback Has Begun: Deloitte and Zoom Take the Lead in Slashing the Most Coveted Benefits - https://www.inc.com/kaylawebster/the-great-rollback-has-begun-deloitte-and-zoom-take-the-lead-in-slashing-the-most-coveted-benefits/91333534 HRDive, Deloitte, Zoom benefit cuts threaten employee trust and retention, experts say - https://www.hrdive.com/news/deloitte-zoom-benefits-cuts-a-risk-to-employee-trust-retention/818818/ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 39 Percent of Manages in 2015 Were Women - https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/39-percent-of-managers-in-2015-were-women.htm Susan Colantuono, They Erased the Word “Women.” That Was the Point - https://www.bebusinesssavvy.com/p/they-erased-the-word-women-that-was Bipartisan Policy Center, Paid Family Leave Across OECD Countries - https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/paid-family-leave-across-oecd-countries/ Businesswire, Child Care Overtakes Retirement as a Top Workplace Benefit – But Employers Are Falling Behind, According to New KinderCare Research - https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260219275404/en/Child-Care-Overtakes-Retirement-as-a-Top-Workplace-Benefit-But-Employers-Are-Falling-Behind-According-to-New-KinderCare-Research U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the labor force, 2024: occupation employment profiles of women and men by age - https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/womens-databook/2024/home.htm U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Household Data, Employed people by occupation, sex, and age - https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.pdf New America, A Chapter of “Paid Family Leave: How Much Time Is Enough?”, Economic Impact - https://www.newamerica.org/insights/paid-family-leave-how-much-time-enough/economic-impact/ TAKE ACTION with Bossed Up - https://www.bossedup.org/takeaction Bossed Up Courage Community - https://www.facebook.com/groups/927776673968737/ Bossed Up LinkedIn Group - https://www.linkedin.com/groups/7071888/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As usual the headline doesn't tell the story. The numbers often get revised for previous months.  This time revisions to April and May, combined with a falling unemployment rate, tell a much weaker story than the headline suggests.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June. That is already a modest number for an economy of this size. But April was revised down by 31,000 jobs, from 179,000 to 148,000. May was revised down by 43,000, from 172,000 to 129,000. Together, those two prior months contained 74,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.Revisions are a normal part of survey-based data. More employers respond, seasonal factors are recalculated, and the estimate becomes more complete. The issue is not that revisions occur. The issue is that investors, lenders, and policymakers often react to the first estimate as though it were precise. In this case, the revised trend is materially softer than the original narrative.Now let us compare the payroll survey with the household survey. In June, the household survey estimated that employment fell by 507,000 people. The civilian labor force contracted by 720,000. The number of people outside the labor force increased by 832,000. At the same time, the official unemployment rate declined from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent.To be counted as unemployed, a person must be without work and actively looking for work. When someone stops looking, that person leaves the labor force and disappears from the unemployment calculation. So the unemployment rate can fall even while employment falls, provided the labor force shrinks faster.That is exactly why the participation rate matters. It fell three tenths of a percentage point in June, to 61.5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio also fell, to 59.0 percent. Those measures are not perfect, but together they show that a smaller share of the working-age population was either employed or participating in the job market.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • Q2 market performance • June's US jobs report • US-Mexico-Canada agreement Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: • Source: FactSet, as of 7/1/2026. MSCI World Index Total Return Level, monthly and quarterly, 3/31/2026 – 6/30/2026. • Source: MarketWatch, as of 7/1/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 1/31/2026 – 6/30/2026. • Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 7/2/2026. Y/y US Headline CPI Inflation, January 2022 – May 2026. • Source: Trading Economics, as of 7/2/2026. United States Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, March 2026 – June 2026. Want to dig deeper? • What monthly jobs data actually means for markets: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/no-flowers-for-the-may-jobs-report Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview3July2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Radio host Craig Collins, who hosts The Craig Collins Show, fills in for Greg on the Thursday 3 Martini Lunch. Join Jim and Craig as they discuss Team USA's historic World Cup win, a weak June jobs report, and the hypocrisy of the media deeming it unfair to call the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) communists while being quick to call those on the right fascists.First, Jim and Craig celebrate the success of Team USA in the first elimination round of the World Cup, defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the knockout round. They highlight the significance of this victory heading into the country's 250th anniversary.Next, Jim and Craig break down the Bureau of Labor Statistics' June jobs report, where the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent but the U.S. added only 57,000 jobs against an expected 115,000. They point to the labor force shrinking by 720,000 people from May to June as a sign of a discouraged workforce.Finally, Craig and Jim highlight that Republicans get called fascists like clockwork, while CNN's Kaitlan Collins rushes to argue it's unfair to call DSA communists. They mention New York Democratic congressional candidate Dalisa Avila Chevalier, who has called herself a communist and supports abolishing the police, as evidence the label holds up. Jim notes some DSA members openly say they want to seize the means of production.Please visit our great sponsors:Fast Growing TreesBetter plants, better growing, and an extra 20% off with code MARTINI at https://FastGrowingTrees.com/Martini for a limited time; terms and conditions may apply.HomeServeFor 50% less your first year, go to https://HomeServe.com/Martini to find the plan that's right for you. Savings compared to renewal price. Void in Florida.New episodes every weekday. 

What does MAGA make of the Democratic Party's insurgent wing? POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly shares insights from her interview with former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their jobs report this morning. The White House is hoping for a boost in data, but will that matter if the numbers don't square up with consumer sentiment? Plus, a very special July 4th weekend lies ahead. So how did America 250 get so political?  Follow POLITICO here:     ➤ X: https://x.com/politico/  ➤ Instagram:  / politico       ➤ Facebook:  / politico    For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board.   Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics

Annual inflation rose to a three-year-high of 4.2% in May, underscoring how elevated energy prices are rippling through the US economy, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis, driven higher by the US-Israeli war with Iran, the latest Consumer Price Index shows. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What if one of the most powerful medicines for longevity, resilience, happiness, cognitive health, and disease prevention wasn't found in a supplement, a prescription, or a cutting-edge biohack—but in the people around you? In this powerful solo episode, Darin Olien dives into one of the most overlooked health crises of our time: loneliness. Drawing from the landmark 85-year Harvard Adult Development Study, the U.S. Surgeon General's loneliness epidemic report, Blue Zones research, neuroscience, and evolutionary biology, Darin reveals why meaningful human connection may be one of the strongest predictors of health and longevity ever discovered. From oxytocin, cortisol, inflammation, vagal tone, and nervous system regulation to suburban design, social media, and the collapse of community structures, Darin exposes the hidden biological costs of isolation—and offers a practical roadmap for rebuilding the human connections we were biologically designed to need.     What You'll Learn The stunning findings from Harvard's 85-year Adult Development Study Why relationships outperform wealth, genetics, diet, and exercise as predictors of well-being How loneliness increases the risk of premature death, dementia, heart disease, and stroke Why social isolation creates measurable biological stress responses The role of oxytocin in lowering inflammation and regulating stress How human connection affects the autonomic nervous system Why Blue Zone communities consistently prioritize social connection The biological difference between digital interaction and real human presence How modern architecture and technology contribute to loneliness Why community is a biological necessity—not a luxury Practical ways to rebuild meaningful relationships today How connection may be one of the most powerful health interventions available   Chapters 00:00:00 – Welcome to SuperLife 00:00:33 – Sponsor: Bite Toothpaste and reducing plastic waste 00:02:49 – The most powerful health study ever conducted 00:03:01 – Harvard follows 724 people for 85 years 00:03:40 – The surprising predictor of a long, healthy life 00:04:00 – Why relationships beat wealth, genetics, diet, and exercise 00:04:42 – The Surgeon General's loneliness epidemic warning 00:05:19 – Introducing the medicine you're not taking 00:05:53 – The health benefits of genuine community 00:06:21 – The fatal convenience of modern life 00:06:47 – Replacing human connection with digital connection 00:07:12 – Why modern convenience may be creating isolation 00:07:23 – Social isolation and premature mortality 00:08:02 – Loneliness and the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day 00:08:43 – Increased risks of heart disease, stroke, and dementia 00:09:10 – Why loneliness is a biological threat 00:09:52 – The science behind social isolation 00:10:11 – Sponsor: Manna Vitality 00:12:06 – Humans as the most socially dependent species 00:12:53 – Why connection regulates the nervous system 00:13:29 – The autonomic nervous system and social safety 00:13:56 – The brain's constant question: Am I safe? 00:14:03 – The biology of belonging 00:14:24 – The ventral vagal state explained 00:14:55 – Why connection creates measurable physiological changes 00:15:03 – What happens when isolation becomes chronic 00:15:52 – Oxytocin: far more than the "love hormone" 00:16:20 – Eye contact, touch, meals, and human bonding 00:16:42 – How oxytocin lowers stress and inflammation 00:17:04 – Why no supplement can replace connection 00:17:17 – The pharmacology of authentic human moments 00:18:06 – Free medicine hidden in plain sight 00:18:39 – Dan Buettner and the Blue Zones 00:19:29 – What the world's longest-lived populations have in common 00:19:36 – Okinawa's lifelong friendship circles 00:20:08 – Sardinia's active elders and social roles 00:20:40 – Greece's culture of connection and communal meals 00:21:03 – Why longevity wasn't hacked—it was lived 00:21:38 – Social connection as the foundation of daily life 00:22:01 – The shocking decline in face-to-face interaction 00:22:21 – Young people losing 70% of in-person social time 00:22:58 – How community was systematically dismantled 00:23:00 – Robert Putnam's Bowling Alone 00:23:49 – Doing life together versus doing life alone 00:24:05 – How suburban design creates isolation 00:24:49 – The built environment shapes human behavior 00:24:55 – Social media and the promise of connection 00:25:20 – Why digital connection fails biologically 00:25:33 – Social comparison, anxiety, and nervous system stress 00:25:49 – More connected online, more isolated in reality 00:26:03 – A call to action: treating relationships like health practices 00:27:00 – Practical ways to rebuild community 00:28:00 – Prioritizing people over convenience 00:29:00 – Deep conversations, presence, and intentional connection 00:30:00 – Reclaiming community in modern life 00:31:00 – Final thoughts on connection, belonging, and health 00:31:53 – Closing remarks and outro     Thank You to Our Sponsors Bite Toothpaste: Go to trybite.com/DARIN20 or use code DARIN20 for 20% off your first order Manna Vitality: Go to mannavitality.com/ and use code DARIN12 for 12% off your order.     Join the SuperLife Patreon: This is where Darin now shares the deeper work: - weekly voice notes - ingredient trackers - wellness challenges - extended conversations - community accountability - sovereignty practices Join now for only $7.49/month at https://patreon.com/darinolien     Find More from Darin Olien: Website: darinolien.com Instagram: @darinolien Book: Fatal Conveniences Platform & Products: superlife.com New Show: Roadmap to Happiness     Key Takeaway "The longest-running study in human history reached a conclusion that should fundamentally change how we think about health: the quality of our relationships predicts our happiness, resilience, and longevity more than almost anything else. Human connection isn't a luxury, a personality trait, or a nice bonus when life slows down. It is biology. It is medicine. And in a world increasingly designed for isolation, rebuilding community may be one of the most important health decisions we ever make."     Bibliography/Sources: Primary Research — Loneliness, Social Isolation & Health Associated Press. (2023, May 2). Surgeon general: Loneliness poses health risks as deadly as smoking. PBS NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/surgeon-general-loneliness-poses-health-risks-as-deadly-as-smoking Cacioppo, J. T., & Hawkley, L. C. (2009). Perceived social isolation and cognition. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 13(10), 447–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2009.06.005 Holt-Lunstad, J., Smith, T. B., & Layton, J. B. (2010). Social relationships and mortality risk: A meta-analytic review. PLoS Medicine, 7(7), e1000316. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000316 Office of the Surgeon General. (2023). Our epidemic of loneliness and isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General's advisory on the healing effects of social connection and community. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/surgeon-general-social-connection-advisory.pdf Waldinger, R. J., & Schulz, M. S. (2010). What's love got to do with it? Social functioning, perceived health, and daily happiness in married octogenarians. Psychology and Aging, 25(2), 422–431. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019087 Neuroscience — Oxytocin, Polyvagal Theory & Community Biology Carter, C. S. (1998). Neuroendocrine perspectives on social attachment and love. Psychoneuroendocrinology, 23(8), 779–818. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0306-4530(98)00055-9 Eisenberger, N. I., & Lieberman, M. D. (2004). Why rejection hurts: A common neural alarm system for physical and social pain. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 8(7), 294–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2004.05.010 Heinrichs, M., Baumgartner, T., Kirschbaum, C., & Ehlert, U. (2003). Social support and oxytocin interact to suppress cortisol and subjective responses to psychosocial stress. Biological Psychiatry, 54(12), 1389–1398. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3223(03)00465-7 Porges, S. W. (2011). The polyvagal theory: Neurophysiological foundations of emotions, attachment, communication, and self-regulation. W. W. Norton & Company. https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393707007 Blue Zones Research Buettner, D., & Skemp, S. (2016). Blue Zones: Lessons from the world's longest lived. American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, 10(5), 318–321. https://doi.org/10.1177/1559827616637066 Kreouzi, M., Theodorakis, N., & Constantinou, C. (2022). Lessons learned from Blue Zones, lifestyle medicine pillars and beyond. American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1177/15598276221118494 Suzuki, M., Willcox, B. J., & Willcox, D. C. (2001). Implications from and for food cultures for cardiovascular disease: Longevity. Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 10(2), 165–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-6047.2001.00219.x The power of environment: A comprehensive review of the exposome's role in healthy aging. (2025). PubMed Central (PMC11858149). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11858149/ Social Capital & Community Decline Oldenburg, R. (1999). The great good place: Cafés, coffee shops, bookstores, bars, hair salons, and other hangouts at the heart of a community. Marlowe & Company. https://books.google.com/books?id=cK80BwAAQBAJ Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. Simon & Schuster. https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bowling-Alone/Robert-D-Putnam/9780743203043 Sbarra, D. A., Briskin, J. L., & Slatcher, R. B. (2019). Smartphones and close relationships: The case for an evolutionary mismatch. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 14(4), 596–618. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691619826535 Twenge, J. M., Joiner, T. E., Rogers, M. L., & Martin, G. J. (2018). Increases in depressive symptoms, suicide-related outcomes, and suicide rates among U.S. adolescents after 2010 and links to increased new media screen time. Journal of Adolescent Health, 62(1), 78–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2017.06.014 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2020). American time use survey. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/tus/ Pennebaker & Authentic Disclosure Brown, B. (2012). Daring greatly: How the courage to be vulnerable transforms the way we live, love, parent, and lead. Gotham Books. https://brenebrown.com/book/daring-greatly/ Pennebaker, J. W. (1997). Writing about emotional experiences as a therapeutic process. Psychological Science, 8(3), 162–166. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.1997.tb00403.x

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index for May this morning, with some bad news for consumers. Headline inflation soared over 4% for the first time in three years, driven in part by higher energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. The question remains of how much higher oil prices will continue to seep into other areas of the economy. Also on today's show is a look at how index fund providers could react to SpaceX's upcoming IPO.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index for May this morning, with some bad news for consumers. Headline inflation soared over 4% for the first time in three years, driven in part by higher energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. The question remains of how much higher oil prices will continue to seep into other areas of the economy. Also on today's show is a look at how index fund providers could react to SpaceX's upcoming IPO.

Keith talks with data-driven investor Neal Bawa, the "mad scientist of multifamily," about why apartment values have dropped 20%–30% while single-family prices have stayed resilient.  They break down how interest rate shocks, the homeowner lock-in effect, and a wave of new multifamily supply are reshaping returns for today's investors.  Keith and Neal also dissect the build-to-rent model—who it really serves, how apartment oversupply is pressuring its rents, and why pending legislation could upend the space.  Neal closes with a specific, data-backed timeline for when multifamily rents and values may finally turn the corner, giving listeners a concrete roadmap instead of vague market guesses. Resources: Grocapitus Website - https://www.grocapitus.com Multifamily U's Free eBook: Location Magic - https://multifamilyu.com/lp/location-magic-ebook/ Multifamily U's Investor Club – https://multifamilyu.com/club Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/609 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Unlock truly passive real estate income—visit flockhomes.com/GRE today to see if your properties qualify for a 721 exchange with Flock Homes. To get in the best physical, mental, and professional shape of your life, go to DanielThomasHind.com and apply for Daniel's intensive 1-on-1 coaching for burnt-out entrepreneurs and executives. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The single-family real estate market is steady, but with apartment building values down 20 to 30% since 2022 when will the multifamily Armageddon end? We ask our qualified guest, and how will slowing birth rates in immigration affect real estate? And more today on Get Rich Education. You know, Mid South Home Buyers, that top Memphis turnkey provider. I learned that a secret weapon behind their explosive growth is more than just you buying their properties, it's an executive coach for nine years now, their CEO, Terry Kerr, and his COO, Pat Nix, have worked privately with a coach who I've now learned from too, and he doesn't market himself online anywhere. After 12 years behind the scenes, that coach is now making himself available exclusively for GRE listeners. His name is Daniel Thomas Hind. If you're a hard-charging business owner or investor who wants to get in the best shape of your life, physically, mentally, and professionally, you can fill out an application for a free consult. This is private one on one coaching for those willing to go to uncommon lengths to achieve uncommon results. Thanks to Daniel, we've all become better leaders, better operators, and better men. It started by showing up for ourselves. Now it's your turn. Go to Daniel Thomas hind.com H I N D, that's Daniel Thomas hind.com and sign up before Spotsville Flock homes helps multifamily owners exit the operator grind, whether it's your six plex or a 50 unit apartment, through a 721 exchange. This defers your capital gains tax. It's a strategy long used by institutions. Now you can swap tenants and toilets for passive income and zero management. Request your initial valuations. See if your property qualifies at flockhomes.com/gre That's F L O C K homes dot com slash G R E.   Neal Bawa  2:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  2:29   Welcome to GRE from Valencia, Spain to Valencia, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone is back with you for another wealth building week. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. The world's biggest problems are the world's biggest businesses. That's not a coincidence, and that's why we discuss housing here. And there's been a chronic shortage of affordable housing last month at a commencement speech, Harrison Ford, yes, the guy that played both Han Solo and Indiana Jones, talked about how a fulfilling life has both passion and purpose. Passion is what gets you out of bed in the morning, purpose is what helps you sleep at night, you and I. We can bring this mindset to our lifestyle, to the business we do, and to our investing. Treating tenants well is what helps real estate investors sleep well at night. While we're doing well, we can be doing good too. Multifamily syndicators keep failing, going out of business, and losing all of their investors' money due to mortgage rate resets. It just keeps happening. What this really means, that these groups that pooled together investor money to buy apartment buildings, largely that were set up in 2022 and earlier keep blowing up almost fully due to the fact that interest rates reset higher. Some of them had a fixed rate for five years. Well, rates spiked four years ago, and that's why a lot of them have yet to blow up, and these apartments have lost so much value that no one will refinance them, you know. Even if that apartment operator increased the net operating income over the years, even if rents went up, it doesn't matter. So, you still haven't heard the last of it. Do you remember a couple years ago, when a lot of people in the apartment space, they were saying just stay alive till 25 and that nonsense, like if you keep your head above water until 2025 oh well, then rates are certainly going to fall, and everyone's going to be okay. Well, 2025 is long gone.    Keith Weinhold  5:01   Mortgage rates haven't fallen in any significant way, so that survive until 25 thing or whatever mantra derivative people used that was a farce, like I've said on the show here for years. You cannot predict interest rates, so I didn't make the call that they were going to go up or down at all, because you can't predict them, but so many people said, oh, rates will fall substantially by now, no way, you just can't make that assumption, you've got to take history over hunches, and all of that, a lot of those multifamily deals 100% depended. depended on refinancing at favorable rates, and that's exactly why they failed. A surefire way to look foolish is to predict interest rates. We'll talk more about the multifamily Armageddon with today's guest. I also want to get into what's called the 21st century road to housing act, because that became one of the most hotly debated housing policy provisions this year. And what this is, is a Senate bill, and it would require certain large institutional investors that develop these bills to rent single family communities. It would force them to sell those homes to individual buyers within seven years. So, in other words, what a big firm could do is build a neighborhood of rental homes, lease them for up to seven years, but they couldn't hold on to them any longer than that. They couldn't hold them indefinitely as rentals, this bill is not aimed at you, the individual investor. It is aimed at big institutions, and what I mean by that is that's generally defined as owning 350 or more homes. That's what we're talking about here. Small landlords and mom and pop investors are not the target, it targets corporate portfolios, and this means groups whose names you've probably heard of, like Blackstone, First Key Homes, Progress Residential, and Invitation Homes. They are some of the heavyweights that the government is looking to clamp down on, so whenever you hear someone talk about big Wall Street landlords, that is who they're talking about. Now, some groups are pretty worried about the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, like the NHB, that's the National Association of Home Builders, and a lot of multifamily groups are concerned, and why is that? Well, the effect is it could dramatically reduce new housing production.   Keith Weinhold  7:44   See, a big institution like First Key Homes or Blackstone, they wouldn't want to even get into this business anymore. They wouldn't want to build big build to rent communities anymore if they have to sell them all within seven years. See, they want to buy and hold for the long term, kind of like what you and I are doing, because you and I know that owning a group of selective buy and hold single family rentals is a really profitable place to be, but so if they don't want to build, then that creates a reduction in supply, which could make prices go up, and then obviously hurt those trying to afford their own home. Well, that would defeat the purpose of this whole thing. I mean, my gosh, this always seems to happen when government gets involved. So, the 21st Century Road to Housing Act could limit supply, which is the exact opposite of its intent to get first-time home buyers into their first home, and if this passes, it does have bipartisan support. This lower supply, then yes, indeed puts upward pressure on prices. Just amazing. So then it could actually go on to help the everyday mom and pop investor, like you and I, that already owns property, the individual at last check, though they're looking to pass a version that still restricts some of these giant institutions from getting into build to rents, but yet it does not have that seven year sale requirement. What's really important to remember here is that Washington, they're looking to stifle big Wall Street players from the rental market, which could reduce supply. They're not targeting individual investors. The context that's important is that these groups, they own 10s of 1000s of homes, they don't own hundreds of 1000s, and they don't own a million, so it's a really small percentage of the housing market, whatever direction policy breaks, then the headlines that it creates are just greater in magnitude than the effect on the market is. It's an important frame of reference here. Let's meet this week's guest. This week we're welcoming back a guest that we haven't heard from in a year or two in real estate circles. He is popularly known as the mad scientist of multifamily. He's quite an in-demand speaker. He has a $500 million multifamily portfolio that he essentially shares with over 1300 investors. He's sharp, a good educator, and a straight shooter. That's why he's here. It's a warm welcome back to Neal Bawa.   Neal Bawa  10:32   Thanks for having me on the show again. It's delightful to be here, and so many interesting things to talk about in the world these days.   Keith Weinhold  10:38   There really are.. I don't know if we can get it all in, Bawa is spelled B A W A. Neal, I want to get to your future housing market outlook later. How you think the future looks, including when multi families quasi Armageddon might end. But first, you're known as a data driven real estate guy. Tell us about that, and how being data driven makes you profitable.   Neal Bawa  11:03   I see concern, and I'll tell you why. The single family and multifamily market have been atrociously incredibly divergent since the first quarter of 2022 They have not tracked yet each other at all, even though if you look at the last 50 years, they tend to track each other. So you know, 2008 was a Armageddon for single family, Armageddon for multifamily, and they both sort of came up in 2012 2013 and then they had a really good time until Covid.   Keith Weinhold  11:30   Yeah,   Neal Bawa  11:31   but the second quarter of 2022 is when Fed started raising rates, and since then we've sort of slid - multifamily has gone down in terms of pricing between 20 and 30% depending upon the metro, you know, and depending upon whether it's new construction, new construction assets have gone down more than 30% and existing assets that are filled up have gone down by 20 to 30% depending upon the metro. So, metros that have a large amount of supply, closer to 30% decline in value, the metros that have less supply probably closer to 20% decline in value, right.   Keith Weinhold  12:03   Demand demand has been pretty resilient. It's more of a supply story.   Neal Bawa  12:06   It's a huge supply story, right. So, if you look at, you know, occupancy, essentially what's happened is there was so much supply that came in that really people started on those projects in 2022 maybe they didn't start a construction until 2023 they didn't finish construction until 2025 so they started leasing up in 2025 They had to give offer concessions two months, sometimes three months free, and so that pushed down the rents in 2025. And they're not done, because you typically can't rent an apartment in six months. If it's brand new, it's going to take you about 18 months to rent it, and sometimes 24 months, and so it's affected our rents in 2025 it's affecting our rents in 2026. Now it's unlikely to affect it in 2027 but we'll go there, you know, at a later stage. But at the moment, we, what we've seen is negative rent growth in the United States for multifamily for the last 12 to 15 months, and what I think is going to be negative rent growth in Q of this year and Q2 of this year, so Q1 was negative, Q2, which we are in now, is likely to be negative or flat now. Single family, on the other hand, has gone in a different direction, which has been very difficult to understand, and I believe it's taken me a while to really understand this, but I think I've finally figured it out. Single family prices are not down since 2022 which makes no sense at all, because the average mortgage in the United States today is almost double, almost double, not quite double, but almost double of what it was in at the beginning of 2022 when interest rates were about 3.3 3.4% Right now we're sitting around, you know, six and a half percent interest rates, so not quite doubled interest rates, but they've obviously gone up a fair bit, and as a result, your average, you know, mortgage has almost doubled, but home prices haven't dropped, which makes no sense if you really think about it, because home prices are a factor of demand, and they're also a factor of people's ability to pay, so if all of a sudden within four years you're paying, the mortgage is doubled, then less people are going to be able to buy, but it stayed up, the market has stayed up, and the biggest reason it stayed up is because of what is known as the lock-in effect. So, the US market typically has a million new homes every year, and there's more than a million existing homes that are transacted, right? So, it's an open market, it's a perfect competition market, but it hasn't been perfect competition for the last four years, because so many people locked in ridiculously low interest rates.    Neal Bawa  14:28   Perfect example, in 2021 and 2022 I have a 15 year mortgage at 1.75% If I sell my house back to myself, my mortgage quadruples, quadruples, right, because it goes from 1.75% to six and a half percent, so I can't even imagine even think about leaving my home, right, because it's just such a perfect loan. Most people don't have anywhere near 1.75% but there's lots of people with more mortgages in the 3% three and a half percent, and 4% range that basically can't go anywhere, and because those homes are not coming into the market. The last three years the market has had this unusual not enough supply factor, and that's been keeping prices up. That is ending. That is ending, because what we've been tracking is the percentage of homes in the United States that have low mortgages. Low is simply defined as anything under four and a half percent, and that percentage is going down each quarter, because you know divorces happen, deaths happen, you know people move for jobs, and so every time that happens, that locked in rate goes away, because you sell your home and move on, and so for a while that lock in effect was predominant, it was controlling everything, but as time has gone on, interest rates were higher in 2324 2526 For also almost four years have passed since the rate started going up. So each quarter the percentage of homes in the US that have these low interest rates has slowly moved down, and we're almost back to a normal timeframe.   Neal Bawa  15:53   And this is causing the single family market to not have a conniption, but we're starting to see a balancing of the market, where it's not just a buyer's market anymore, in some places it's actually seller's market, some places it's a buyer's market. So we're now starting to see home prices drop in number of markets in the United States. I can't say that they've dropped in super majors, but we're seeing a flattening out effect of home prices in most metros in the US, and there should be a flattening effect. Just to be blunt, I mean, obviously I own a bunch of single-family homes, so I just wanted them to keep going up for selfish reasons. But if you think about it, we had huge home price growth in like 30 plus percent in number of years, 2021 22 and even 23 and during those years, salaries only went up by two to 3% a year. In one year, they went up by 4% and rents also went up like crazy. There was a 2021 was 15% rent growth year. So, at some point, there had to be an adjustment, and we are in that period of adjustment where single family prices are basically flat on a national basis. Yes, going up in the San Francisco Bay Area because of AI, and going up in a couple other technology-heavy metros because of AI, but otherwise fairly flat, and I don't expect that to change for the next year. So, my forecast is next 12 to 18 months, home prices in the US are going to be flat on a nominal basis, they're going to be down on an inflation-adjusted basis, but you know, because of the Iran, more inflation's three and a half percent, so home prices should go up three and a half percent. So, if they stay where they are, well, they're really dropping three and a half percent.   Keith Weinhold  17:29   Yeah, before this year began, I released our forecast, it was for 2% nominal home price appreciation in the one to four unit space for the US this year, and I still like how that looks. There's so much to unpack with what you just talked about. In my view, there's nothing unusual at all that when mortgage rates rose sharply a few years ago, that home prices rose as well. Why? Because actually, that's what usually happens, which is counterintuitive to most people. In all of our lifetimes, residential real estate prices have only fallen significantly one time, that was around 2008 due to a number of unusual circumstances. The only thing that's a bit different this time is, of course, how fast rates increased in 2022 and 2023 and people wondering if residential real estate prices could still keep up, and they certainly have, but yeah, you brought up this dichotomy, this bifurcation about how the apartment market and the one to four unit space kind of separated from each other in 2022 or 2023 That's what's so interesting.   Neal Bawa  18:36   I do want to point out a couple things, though, and I don't want to be a Pollyanna here and talk about negative stuff, but I think that there's big difference between 2008 and that timeframe and where we are today, and that difference is, and it has multiple parts. Not all of your audience is aware of this. Until about 2012 the United States had very reasonable birth rates. You know, we were one of those countries that had avoided the debacle that Japan, Korea, China, and a number of other countries are seeing South Korea being the absolute worst, where basically they were producing one baby per generation, where you need about 2.2 babies just to kind of keep your population where it is, right, and the US was unusually high in that, and that we were still above that threshold, which meant that our population would continue to grow and not fall. Now, there was two reasons our population was growing: One, we had more than 2.2 babies per household, and second, we had a very significant amount of legal and a very significant amount of illegal or undocumented immigration. Right, so we had both of those pipelines today. All three of those have flipped, so the United States now basically looks like Korea or China or Japan in that every household is producing about one and a half babies, which means that our population growth, which hasn't stopped yet, because it takes a while for these things to catch. Up is likely to stop, like it's, and at some point decline again. Luckily, we're not there yet. The US is a fairly young population, unlike Japan, which is one of the oldest populations in the world. So, it'll, we'll still continue to see population growth, but there is no doubt. And you can ask Chat GPT, right? How has population growth in the United States slowed over the last 20 years.    Neal Bawa  19:22   Make me a graph, and it will make you a very nice graph, and you'll very clearly see there's a slowdown in population growth. The second part is both documented and undocumented immigration. It's my estimate that since this administration took over, somewhere between half 1,000,001 million people have left the United States. Now it's very difficult to get an actual number, as you can imagine. A number of these people were undocumented, so we didn't really know how many there were to begin with. And a number of them, when they left, they also left by an undocumented rate, that you know, path. So we've lost a bunch of those people, and also the people that have stayed in the country, we've lost a number of them in the workforce. Here's a perfect anecdote, Keith. About 33% of the construction workforce in the United States was undocumented, one in three. In Texas, as much as 40%   Keith Weinhold  19:45   Yeah, that's huge.   Neal Bawa  19:45   It's very significant. Number of those people don't show up for work anymore. I don't think they've left the US, at least I don't think so. But they don't show up for work anymore, because that's how they get caught, right. So, what we've seen is that the construction workforce in the United States has become been decimated over the last 12 months, and the impact is much greater in the second half of 2025 than the first half. Why? Because even though they wanted to do ICE enforcement, they just simply didn't have enough agents, enough facilities, enough judges. When the second half of last year, they sort of started catching up on that, hiring more agents, getting more facilities, getting more judges, and so we started to see a real challenge there. I have properties in 10 markets in the US, and what I can say is about seven of those markets, mostly Southern markets, I am beginning to see dropping occupancy related to this phenomenon. I'm seeing a reduction, and so markets like Georgia and Texas, Florida are more hit than my northern markets like Idaho. I haven't seen any impact at all, but these southern markets, multiple properties, multiple metros, I'm seeing this - people, mostly of Spanish, Mexican origin, not renewing leases. I don't know what they're doing. I don't know if they're sleeping in their cars. I don't know if they're basically just, you know, staying with mom or staying with, you know, some other family. But I'm seeing a very, very big pullback in my leases tied to this, and occupancy is dropping in those markets that are heavily Hispanic. And so I'm seeing the impact of that on landlords, but I also know that there's an impact on the US at all, and overall demand on rentals, whether it's single family or multifamily. This is a significant impact, because I don't think that the Republicans are going to make a U-turn on this. I don't want to get political, but you know, stating the obvious.   Keith Weinhold  19:45   Yes, United States had its biggest birth year in 2007 when there were more than 4 million babies born. The average age of the first time homebuyer today is 40 years old. If that holds true, that peak would take place in 2047 And then, yes, to your point about changes in immigration, yes, it sounds like a potentially a reduction in demand with what you're talking about, with some vacancies, and also maybe a reduction in supply when you have fewer construction workers to build these places as well, we're talking about building properties. Neal, I want to talk to you about the build to rent space. Somewhat is build to rent better than traditional real estate? I think that's what we really want to know. And for those that don't know, build to rent means when you construct a property where from day one that construction project is built for a tenant, not an owner occupant. I see a lot of pros and cons there. Can you talk to us about the trade-offs between build to rent and traditional real estate?   Neal Bawa  19:52   Yeah, if you think about it, it's a really terrible word, built to rent, because if you think about the word built to rent should be apartments, right, but actually doesn't mean apartments, right? So, built to rent actually means single family or town homes that were built to rent out, right? And then you're like, why don't they just said built to rent apartments and town homes? Well, you know, was too long an acronym, and we suck at acronyms anyway. But BTR, or built to rent, is essentially building single family or town homes, but specifically building them to rent, and it doesn't include any apartments at all, right? And the reason why the BTR market was growing in the last five or six years is that roughly 18 million American families can no longer afford to buy starter single family homes, you know, and by starter I mean, small old single-family homes. That's how Americans usually started, you know, in their 20s and 30s. They would buy these homes, some of them, but they would fix up, and then they over time, in their 30s, late 30s and 40s and 50s, they would upgrade, and then at starting the 50s, it would flatten out, and then the 60s, they would start to downgrade, right? That's been a typical thing that's happened in America for 56 5070, years. Well, that is, cannot happen anymore. And it broke in 2022 until 2022 It was a normal cycle beyond 2022 because interest rates almost doubled, and the mortgages almost doubled, but the incomes only increased by 10 to 20% There became this orphaned generation of Americans, roughly 18 million families, that simply cannot afford to buy that starter home, and they are now forever renters. They don't know it. They think that they're going to catch up at some point, but five minutes with an Excel spreadsheet, I could prove it to them that they're not going to catch up.    Neal Bawa  25:35   Maybe one in 100 families would see a very large increase in income, and that would result in them catching up, but for the most part, as a group, these 18 million families, they're forever enters as a group that didn't exist before 2021 right. It's entirely because of this outrageous increase in mortgages, while not seeing a drop in home prices, that led to this, and so those orphan families, they actually earn pretty well, so these are families that make 70, 80, $90,000 in mid markets. They make over $100,000 if they're living on the coasts or in expensive markets, and they still can't buy that, you know, starter home. And so they don't want to live in apartments. I have lots of apartments, old ones, new ones, and I want these people to live there, but they don't want to live there, and so they've been looking for an option, and that option has been developers like me building communities of 200 300 townhomes or single family homes with a small little yard, and then basically from day one, instead of selling them, renting them out, and then once you're done renting out the whole community with 200 tenants, then you sell that to an apartment company. You know, there's lots of apartment companies in the US that have 100,000 units. Well, they want to buy these because the turnover is lower. So, what happens is most of these town homes and single-family homes for rent. Families come in, and they typically rent for three to five years before they move, whereas in on my apartments I lose 40% of my tenants each year. So, if I have 200 tenants, I lose 80 of them every year, and I have to basically go back, clean up those units, deal with the vacancy. But when I have townhome communities like my Idaho Falls townhome community. I lose a tenant at roughly every four years, and so, as you can imagine, profitability goes up when turnover goes down, right?   Neal Bawa  27:31   Because you don't have that cost of turnover and vacancy, and so eventually those large landlords that are holding 100,000 units figured out, I like this, what Neal Bawa is doing, he's building these 200 townhomes, I want to buy these from him when they're rented. I don't want to build them, I don't want to lease them up, I just want to buy them when they're stabilized. And so BTR became that name for that marketplace where developers would build townhomes and single families, rent them out, and then sell them to institutional, and it was some—   Keith Weinhold  27:56   People think of fabulous institutionalization of the starter home.   Neal Bawa  28:00   And in many ways it is, because what happened is, for a while, these institutional players, like Blackstone and BlackRock, they were like, we are just going to go out and buy 50,000 single-family homes, and that's going to be the institutionalized. Well, that worked really well if you bought in 2008 2009 2010 2011 because you got them bought them at a discount, but when they started buying them in 2015, 16, 17, 18 at ever higher prices, they didn't make any money. So the vast majority of these public funds that were created to buy large amounts of single family have failed if they've purchased anything in the last seven or eight years. If they bought before that, they made huge amounts of money. Family homes are so expensive that basically buying them for rental did not make sense, so these companies have now pivoted to saying we'll only buy communities that have 100 or 200 or 300 of these homes, because then we get the benefits of having centralized leasing, centralized property management, centralized maintenance, and I don't have homes spread all over the metro, they're all in one place, and I can make more profit from that. In theory, that's been good, and you might think that I'm bullish on BTR, but I'm actually today bearish on BTR for one single reason. About seven months ago, Republicans started talking about a bill - I don't know what the name of the bill is, but what this bill does is it forces builds to rent developers like me within seven years of building the property to sell all of the homes in that property to single family tenants, not to Blackstone, not to Blackrock, but to single family tenants. Hasn't passed yet, but it passed the Senate with an 8910 vote, which means that both Democrats and Republicans wanted to vote for this. If it passes the House, and because Donald Trump himself is very heavily opposed to it, he's made it very clear he doesn't like this. He's a developer, obviously. It hasn't passed the House yet, but if it passes the house, that will destroy the build to rent market. No one will ever build build to rent, because the worst possible thing is I build this, and within seven years I have to actually sell it to individual buyers. If I do that, my banks are going to hate me and not give me loans to build BTR anymore. Obviously, there's going to be some grandfathering to the communities that I'm building now, or maybe even build the ones that I'm building in 2027 maybe grandfathered. It usually is, because you know, Congress never does anything retroactively, and they give you a year or two, but if it passes, it's doomsday for BTR. I hope it doesn't happen, but that's the way it's looking, because it's bipartisan. Bipartisan bills are more likely to pass   Keith Weinhold  30:40   Now for the mom and pop investor, the individual investor build to rents have obvious appeal due to your point about the lower turnover, lower maintenance costs on a new build, lower insurance costs often on a new build, and then there's the tenant appeal to a new build as well, but of course there is that investor downside. I think a lot of investors are aware of their thin initial cash flow that they're going to have on build to rent, but you know, Neal, another downside with build to rent, I think a lot of investors don't look at is, hey, just how many of these things are they building? Are they building 500 of them? Do I have some overbuild risk if I buy into this community that could suppress occupancy and rents for a while.   Neal Bawa  31:21   What we've seen is that when Built to Rent started out in 2017-2018 it was its own asset class. It wasn't competing with apartments, it wasn't competing with single family rentals, it was just its own thing. However, in the last two or three years, as more and more apartments flooded the marketplace, we had a glut. It moved away from that. It basically started getting affected, and the rent started falling, just like any other portion of the market. You know, think of it as three portions of market. There's the built to rent, which I described, you know, brand new single family homes, town homes per rent. There's the apartments, both brand new and existing, and there's the single family rentals, right, which there are millions of. What we are seeing now is it's become one market, right? All of them are affecting each other, and the apartments, which have a huge amount of glut, there's a massive amount of new apartments that have come in in the last two years, are really pushing the rents down for single family, they're pushing that rents down for BTR. So, at this point, what I would say to people that have this concern, Keith, is simply look at incoming apartment supply, because if you're in a marketplace, and I'll give you examples of really good markets that are crushed right now. If you're in a market that has a lot of incoming supply, whether you buy a single family rental, a quadplex, a 50 plex that's an apartment, or 100 unit BTR, you're going to suffer for rent growth if you have a lot of incoming supply in 2026 and that is across the board in every market in the US. Huntsville, Alabama is, in my opinion, one of the most interesting markets in the US for 5 year, 10 year growth, right?    Neal Bawa  32:54   If I had to say you don't need a loan, it's just your own cash, no investors, where would you put money in? It would be at the top of my list, not at the very top. Idaho Falls is definitely the number one market in the US in my list, but Huntsville is up there. But right now, do you know what rent growth in Huntsville is? Minus 2% negative 2% Why? Because there's 6000 units coming into a market that's, you know, 1/5 or 1/10 the size of Phoenix, right. It's 1/10 the size of Dallas, but it has half the units of Dallas or Phoenix coming in, and so rent growth is negative there. So, what I would say is today absolutely everyone that is an investor should understand that we live in the magic world of AI, and you should be talking with Chat GPT about incoming supply for any market that you're interested in, and using that to make your decisions, because all of these markets merged, BTR, new apartments, old apartments, single family, everything has emerged in the last 24 months, where they're all affecting each other, and if there's too much supply of any one kind, it's affecting all of the other markets, and that's the message that I have. And none of this is like you have to go buy a $25,000 software like Costar today. Chat GPT is your costar.   Keith Weinhold  34:11   You're listening to Get Rich Education. We're talking with the mad scientist of multifamily, Neal Bawa, where we come back, including what he thinks about recovery for the beleaguered multifamily market. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. 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What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed, but with a track record of consistent on-time investor payouts, they built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call, or text family 268 66 That's Family 266 866    Speaker 1  36:00   This is the star of the A E Show, The Real Estate Commission. Todd Rollette. Listen to Get Rich Education with my friend Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  36:20   Welcome back to Get Rised Education. We're talking with Neal Bawa, a really sharp multifamily syndicator who's also highly data driven. And Neal, tell us more about the beleaguered multifamily market that had those aforementioned problems really cropping up in 2022 and we had a lot of supply and spiking rates. What does it look like for the path to recovery for the US multifamily market?   Neal Bawa  36:45   Luckily, demand is strong, and even though occupancies have dropped, typically the multifamily market, the large multifamily market in the US, tends to be between 95 and 96% occupied. Okay, and right now we're on 93% so that all that incoming supply means that about 7% of our apartments in the US are empty at the moment, we're trying to fill them, and we are seeing that occupancy drop, not across just new apartments that are leasing up, but also drop in class B and class C. We've also seen a huge increase in concessions, so I studied this quite obsessively, and I can tell you that 2026 in some markets is the recovery year, but not across the board in the United States, and the reason for that is sentiment. Once renters get used to huge amounts of concessions, it's like a drug, it takes a little while before you wean those renters off of those drugs, and so there's that hit right now. Every renter program,   Keith Weinhold  37:44   Everyone wants their freebie for good.    Neal Bawa  37:46   Yeah, exactly. It's like, hey, what, you're not giving me two months free? Hey, what, you're not even offering me one month free? It takes a while for that expectation to happen, because there's such a huge amount of concessions in the US. So, to me, there are a few markets, usually the smaller markets or very fast growing markets, where there's a recovery in 2026 but otherwise 2027 The first half of 2027 is recovery. The second half of 2027 is fast rent growth in a lot of markets. Why? Because remember, interest rates have been high since 2023 A lot of projects were started in 2022 went into construction in 23 came to market in 25 and 26 Lease ups are happening in 25 and 26 By early mid 27 these are all leased up, right? The second half of 2027 there isn't a lot of delivery in any of these big markets, because to deliver in the second half of 27 you would have started construction in that second half of 2025 and I counted those permits market by market. There's just not a lot, because by that time everyone knew that projects were not getting funded, everyone knew that interest rates were high, so there wasn't a lot of supply of new starts in the apartment market in the second half of 25 so there's not going to be a lot of delivery in the second half of 27 and all of the existing stuff would have been leased by then. So 2026 is one of those years where we could still see more concessions in the second half of 2026 I still see rent growth for apartments to be flat. You mentioned single family might be a little bit higher. It tends to be a little bit higher than apartments in terms of rent growth, but I think flat rent growth for 2026 is what I'm projecting. I'm projecting small rent growth in the first half of 2027 for most markets, and then I'm projecting robust rent growth, call it 3% or greater on an annualized basis, in the second half of 2027 and I'm projecting that most markets in the US that are not seeing a population drop, so count out places like Detroit are going to see a very aggressive rent growth, four or 5% rent growth, that's aggressive in our world, in 2028 28 and 29 are shaping up to be. Supply deficit years, years where supply is well under demand.   Keith Weinhold  40:05   It's pretty easy to project completions when you just go ahead and look at starts, and really, what you're counting is the story of absorption.   Neal Bawa  40:14   Yep, and what's nice about apartments is you can actually build a single family home in about nine months, right, but you can't build apartments in less than 24 months. There's just so much permitting issues, there's so many delivery issues, fire code issues, and so we have a crystal ball on the multifamily side that we are now getting better at using. I don't think the industry was very good at this in 2022 but now we're really all obsessed with how many permits does my metro have, and how many permits does my state, and how many permits does the US have? And everyone that I know in the industry that's data driven knows that there's a massive glut now, maybe a little bit of a glutton that remaining portion of 2026 equilibrium in 27 and a huge, huge supply deficit in 28 and 29 So everything that I'm doing is based on this, and this crystal ball actually works because of that two year gap between shovels in the ground and delivery,   Keith Weinhold  41:10   and it sounds like you've recommended Chat GPT as a go-to source for investors to look into these things, that happens to be my favorite one as well, and you are well, maybe it's a bit too much to say, but it almost feels like to me pioneering with the way that you use AI. In fact, I know before our show today you were running some other things in the background that made me wonder, hey, am I talking to the real Neil or the clone Neil? I know I've got the real Neil here, but why don't you tell us about how you're using AI to make data-driven decisions in real estate?   Neal Bawa  41:40   Sure, so the first thing is that we've completed our journey with the low hanging fruit of AI. Every single person in our company is fully trained on how to use Chat GPT. Most of our research-related processes are automated. For example, 100% of our investor updates are now written by Chat GPT. What we do is we go into our property manager meetings on Mondays or Tuesdays sit down with them, beat them up, and the transcript is then taken by our team in the Philippines. They take that transcript and put it into a pre-trained Chat GPT string, it's called a custom GPT, and the string took a while to train, but now that it's trained, all it needs is a transcript. We just copy paste it in, we don't give it any instructions, and it outputs a really wonderful investor update, right. And so our updates for our investors are 99% written by AI. Of course, we'll go in and add our comments at the end of the process. So we've automated investor updates, rent comps, so you know if we are underwriting a new property today, what we do is we simply go into a Google file and copy paste the address and hit enter roughly once a minute. A software, which is written by AI - we're not coders, but the software knows how to write code - it checks the file, if it sees a new address, it goes in there, grabs the address, and then it basically goes to apartments.com rent.com realtor.com and all of these places, and checks the rents for this particular property in two mile radius. It eliminates all the ones that don't match, like you don't want to match the rents of a 1970 or 80s built property with a brand new 25 built property. Those are not comps, it's not comparable. So it basically is very careful, it keeps a radius range of two miles, and also basically is a property of the same kind, you know, like it never matches up a three story property with a 10 story property. Those don't match, one of them obviously is more of a central business district or downtown sort of thing, and so it basically grabs all of those rent comps and then puts them into a file and posts in a Slack channel. Usually it takes it about 1213 minutes to do that, and so whoever put that address in about 12 minutes later goes into the Slack channel and says, "Hmm, these are all my rent comps, right? And boom, now you're basically, you have all these ready rent comps. So, what we've done is, we've automated a significant portion of what we are doing with both our property managers and inside the company with acquisitions and things like that, we're also scraping massive amounts of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, which we just couldn't deal with that data before, and building very beautiful, very interactive dashboards. We don't use Chat GPT for that. We find for dashboarding a tool called Claude, which is by a company called Anthropic, is much better, so we have currently over 150 interactive dashboards that Claude has created that update in real time and give us access to data. If anything, I find that we are in this incredible time where decision making has become much easier, as long as you spend time with these tools. So, in our company we have an absolute mandate that no one has broken for the last year. One year per day, people must program, and by programming we mean issuing common language instructions to tools and build dashboards and build software that automates our work. Have we laid off anyone because of this? I mean that. Be the next obvious question. The answer is no, because it's made it easier for us to serve a much larger audience, so it's easier to grow your company. We just are not hiring anyone, and we haven't hired anybody for the last 18 months, so we have a hiring freeze, but at the same time all of our people are employed because they're they're now much more valuable. So everyone in our company is now a programmer, and even though that sounds weird, it's completely true.   Neal Bawa  45:24   Every single person in our company writes code, and they write code by talking with Cloud Code or talking with Chat GPT, and then Chat GPT, of course, does the actual code writing, but people have become very, very good at answering questions and saying, "I want a dashboard like this, turn these radio buttons into drop boxes, and give me the last month, and last three months, and last 12 months, and do this, and do that, and connect this, and I also want to host this on a server, but I want to make sure that only I can see it. I need a password added. Imagine 1000 of these conversations happening in our company every day. Yeah, that's interesting. And what you just described   Keith Weinhold  46:00   there at Gro Capitas is somewhat of a microcosm for what's happening in the broader economy, where we've been in this low high or low fire environment for quite a while. Well, Neal, as we're winding down here, we recently had a new Fed chair come in. It seems incomprehensible to me that there could possibly be any rate cuts. I don't know how we could responsibly make a rate cut with all these inflationary layers. We had the pandemic, and then terrorists, and then the Iran war, and the energy shocks, and all these bottled up supply chains. What are your thoughts with regard to the Fed?   Neal Bawa  46:29   I still think that we'll get one rate cut, and that rate cut will be based on political pressure. So, for the first time ever, I have seen the Fed break into factions, so if you look at the latest Fed meeting, which happened, you know, there was dissent, there were two clear factions, so the Fed is becoming less data driven and more faction driven, and I think that one of the factions, which obviously wants rate cuts to go down, is going to triumph at some point later in the year, but until we get past the incredible increase in inflation because of the Iran war, I don't think that faction is going to win. Right, there's three or four people in that faction, that's not enough votes to get past the others. So I'm predicting no rate cuts until Q4 of this year. If the Fed was entirely logical, there should still not be a rate card in Q4, but I think it'll happen because there's political pressure.   Keith Weinhold  47:25   The preservation of independence is key. Neil Bhawa, this has been great, and a lot of people learn from you. You're a brilliant educator, as well as what you're doing in the multifamily space, and a lot of other places. So, if someone wants to connect with you, learn more about what you do. What's the best way for them to do that?   Neal Bawa  47:43   So we built a website called Multi Family University. It's completely free. There is no subscription. There's no upsell. We do not have an educational product, but what we do is each year we have 8-12 webinars that we create with their extraordinarily good looking thanks to the use of AI. Yay, and we share them with an audience, and usually between 5000 and 1000 people attend our webinars each year, of which roughly 1% become investors with us. The rest, the remaining 99% just continue to get free access to data, and we cover every imaginable real estate topic: Single family, multifamily, industrial hotels, self storage, Airbnb, and even controversial topics outside of real estate, like climate change or impact of climate change and impact of AI. So you know, multifamily university is the best place you can go to, multifamily you.com/club It's a free club, and it's free forever.   Keith Weinhold  48:42   Neal, it's been valuable to our audience. Thanks so much for coming back out of the show.   Neal Bawa  48:46   Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  48:53   Oh, a terrific, wide-ranging chat with Neal. There, yes, this interesting 2022 divergence between single family and multifamily, the slowing birth rate, and how that won't really catch up with real estate in a big way for perhaps 20 plus more years. How single family rentals beat multifamily on the basis of tenant retention, and a lot more that we covered there, and he's got a good data driven timeline for apartments being back in favor by 2027 and 2028 After the interview, Neil and I chatted some more off Mike, and he would like to come back on the show next year. We're probably going to have him, because we have a lot more to talk about at that time. We can see if the multifamily market is really healing. Also, did you pick up on this? I wonder why, for his own home he would get a 15 year mortgage at 1.75% interest, so I'll have to ask him about that. That's surely a fantastic interest rate, but a 15 year loan rather than a 30 year that maybe he could have gotten at two and a half percent at the time. Well, 15 year probably. Is not the best use of capital, because it increases your equity position rapidly. When instead, those dollars could have been out in the market earning an actual return somewhere else. But he's a smart guy, he must have an answer. We can talk about that at that time. We've got a lot of terrific shows coming up here on the GRE podcast, specific learning episodes, where it's just me teaching you, as well as new guests and returning guests too. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 2  50:35   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Speaker 2  51:03   The preceding program was brought to you by Your Home for Wealth Building, getricheducation.com.