Podcasts about core pce

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is imposing tariffs on the rest of countries to bring manufactures back to this the US. The US economy is growing the Fed is going to try to stop the growth by pushing back on the rate cut. The Fed inflation detector shows no sign of runaway inflation. Trump is now pushing the narrative to fire Powell, leverage is the name of the game. The [DS] is panicking, Trump and team are now indicting those who are treasonous to this country. The started out with the lying, he is testing the waters, testing the judges building the narrative for the people of this country. The [DS] players are pushing back by using Antifa. These will intensify over time and Trump will counter the insurgency/insurrection with the military. The military is the only way, buckle up.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1 Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said the sweeping tariffs leave major questions unanswered, including whether they comply with existing trade agreements, but predicted they would “almost certainly drive up prices for American buyers.” Source: zerohedge.com Mexico is the largest supplier of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., followed by Canada, Japan, Germany, and Turkey. Heavy-truck shipments from U.S. plants climbed from a low of $1.1 billion in April 2020 to $3.2 billion this July, though they have dipped modestly this year, Federal Reserve data shows.   Fed cautious on rate cuts as GDP surges; warns of potential inflation risks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the central bank will weigh the GDP numbers carefully as it considers future rate cuts. “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later,” Powell said. Source:  13wham.com  Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides  After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE - the Fed's favorite indicator - to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY... and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations. Indeed, "as expected" is the them of this morning's data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years... not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every "respected" economist predicted. All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most.  On the income side, there was more good news: after outpacing the private sector for nearly three years, wage growth of private workers (5.0% YoY) is once again rising faster than government workers. In fact, government worker wage growth of 4.2% was the lowest since August 2021.   Source: zerohedge.com    Political/Rights BREAKING: Sinclair Caves, Will Bring Jimmy Kimmel's Show Back 

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc

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On Wednesday, the Fed announced its first rate cut in nine months. While the reduction was widely expected, our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen explain the data that markets and the Fed are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Our topic today is the Fed's first quarter percent rate cut in 2025. We're here to discuss the implications and the path forward. It's Thursday, September 18th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, the Fed concluded its meeting on Wednesday. What was the high-level takeaway from your perspective?Michael Gapen: So, I think there's two main points here. There's certainly more that we can discuss, but two main takeaways for me are obviously the Fed is moving because it sees downside risk in the labor market.So, the August employment data revealed that the hiring rate took a large step down and stayed down, right. And the Fed is saying – it's a curious balance in the labor market. We're not quite sure how to assess it, but when employment growth slows this much, we think we need to take notice.So, they're adjusting their view. We'll call it risk management 'cause that's what Powell said. And saying there's more risk of worse outcomes in the labor market, keeping a restricted policy stance is inappropriate, we should cut. So that's part one. I think he previewed all of that in Jackson Hole. So, it was largely the same, but it's important to know why the Fed's cutting. The second thing that was interesting to me is as much as he, Powell in this case, tried to avoid the idea that we're on a preset path. That, you know, policy is always data dependent and it's always the meeting-to-meeting decision – we know that. But it does feel like if you're recalibrating your policy stance because you see more downside risk to the labor market, they're not prepared to just do once and go, ‘Well, maybe; maybe we'll go again; maybe we won't.' The dot plots clearly indicate a series of moves here. And when pressed on, well, what's a 25 basis point rate cut going to do to help the labor market, Powell responded by, well, nothing. 25 basis points won't really affect the macro outcome, but it's the path that that matters. So, I do think; and I use the word recalibration; Powell didn't want to use that. I do think we're in for a series of cuts here. The median dot would say three, but maybe two; two to three, 75 basis points by year end. And then we'll see how the world evolves. Matthew Hornbach: So, speaking of the summary of economic projections, what struck you as being interesting about the set of projections that we got on Wednesday? And how does the Fed's idea of the path into 2026 differ from yours?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, it was a lot about downside risk to the labor market. But what did they do? They revised up growth. They have the unemployment rate path lower in the outer years of their forecast than they did before, so they didn't revise down this year. But they revised down subsequent years, and they revised inflation higher in 2026. That may seem at odds with what they're doing with the policy rate currently.But my interpretation of that is, you know, the main point to your question is – they're more tolerant of inflation as the cost or the byproduct of needing to lower rates to support the labor market. So, if this all works, the outlook is a little stronger from the Fed's perspective. And so, what's key to me is that they are… You know, the median of the forecast, to the extent that they align in a coherent message, are saying, we're going to have to pay a price for this in the form of stronger inflation next year to support the labor market this year. So that means in their forecast – cuts this year, but fewer cuts in 2026 and [20]27. And how that differs from our forecast is we're not quite as optimistic on the Fed, as the Fed is on the economy. We do think the labor market weakens a little bit further into 2026. So, you get four consecutive rate cuts upfront, again, inclusive of the one we got on Wednesday. And then you get two additional cuts by the middle of 2026. So, we're not quite as optimistic. We think the labor market's a little softer. And we think the Fed will have to get closer to neutral, right? Powell said we're moving “in the direction of neutral.” So, he's not committing to go all the way to neutral. And we're just saying we think the Fed ultimately will have to do that, although they're not prepared to communicate that now.Matthew Hornbach: One of the things that struck me as interesting about the summary of economic projections was the unemployment rate projection for the end of this year. So, the way that the Fed delivers these projections is they give you a number on the unemployment rate that represents the average unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the specified year. And in this case, the median FOMC participant is projecting that the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent. And that's what we're forecasting as well, I believe. And so, what struck me as interesting is that with an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of the year, which is up about 0.2 percent from today's unemployment rate of 4.3 – the Fed is only projecting one additional rate cut in 2026. And I'm curious, do you think that if we in fact get to the end of this year, and it looks like the unemployment rate has averaged about 4.5 percent – do you expect the Fed to continue to forecast only one rate cut in 2026?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's… Um. The short answer is no. I think that's a challenging position to be in. And by that, I mean, in addition to that unemployment rate forecast where it's 4.5 percent for the average of the fourth quarter, which could mean December's as high as 4.6; we don't know what their monthly forecast is.But that would mean the unemployment rate's risen about a half a percentage point from its lows a few months ago. And they have inflation rising to 3 percent. Core PCE is already 2.9. So, inflation is about where it is today; [it's] a touch firmer. But the unemployment rate has moved higher. And so, what I would say is they haven't seen a lot of evidence by December that inflation's coming back down, and the labor market has stabilized.So, this is why we think they will be more likely to get to a neutral-ish or something closer to neutral in 2026 than they're prepared to communicate now. So, I think that's a good point. So, Matt, if I could turn it back to you, I would just like first to ask you about the general market reaction. The 25 basis point cut was universally expected. So really all the potentially new news was then about the forward path from here. So how did markets reply to this? Yields did initially sell off a bit, but they generally came back. What's your assessment of how the market took the decision?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the initial five, 10 minutes after the statement and summary of economic projections is released, everybody's digesting all of the new information. And generally speaking, investors tend to see what they want to see initially in all of the materials. So initially we had yields coming down a bit, the yield curve steepened a bit. But then about half an hour later, it became clear – just right before the press conference had started; it became clear to people that actually this delivery in the documentation was a bit more moderate in terms of the forward look. That it was a fairly balanced assessment of where things are and where things may be heading.And that in the end, the Fed, while it does want to bring interest rates lower, at least in the modal case, that it is still not particularly concerned about downside risks to activity, I should say, than it is concerned about upside risks to inflation. It very much seems a balanced assessment of the risks. And I think as a result, the market balanced out its initial euphoria about lower rates with a moderation of that view. So, interest rates ended up moving slightly higher towards the end of the day. But then, the next day they came back a bit. So, I think, it was a bit more of a steady as they go assessment from markets in the end.Michael Gapen: And do you see markets as maybe changing their views on whether you know, it is a recalibration in the stance, therefore we should expect consecutive cuts? Or is the market now thinking, ‘Hey, maybe it is meeting by meeting.' And what about the Fed's forecast of its terminal rate versus the market's forecast of the terminal rate. So, what happened there?Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. Yeah. So, in terms of how market prices are incorporating the idea that the Fed may cut at consecutive meetings through the end of the year, I think markets are generally priced for an outcome about in line with that idea. But of course, markets, and investors who trade markets, have to take into consideration the upcoming dataset and with the Fed so data dependent; so, meeting by meeting in terms of their decisions – it could certainly be the case that the next employment report and/or the next inflation report could dissuade the committee from lowering rates again, at the end of October when the Fed next meets. So, I think the markets are, as you can expect, not going to fully price in everything that the Fed is suggesting. Both because the Fed may not end up delivering what it is suggesting; it might, or it may deliver more. So, the markets are clearly going to be data dependent as well. In terms of how the market is pricing the trough policy rate for the Fed – it does expect that the Fed will take its policy rate below where the summary of economic projections is suggesting. But that market pricing is more representative I think of a risk premium to the expectations of investors, which generally are in line or end up moving in line with the summary of economic projections over time. So, given that the Fed has changed the economic projections and the forecast for policy rates, investors probably also end up shifting a bit in terms of their own expectations. So, with that, Mike, I will bid you adieu until we speak again next time – around the time of the October FOMC meeting. So, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt,Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

When you listen to J Powell speak from the podium at the FOMC meeting he typically talks about managing the Fed's dual mandate to maintain price stability and to maximize employment. The past several years have been focused on taming inflation. Core PCE inflation measured 0.3% for the past two months June and July. We will get the August report on Sept 26. On an annualized basis Core PCE inflation remains pretty sticky at 2.9%. This is higher than the Fed's 2% target. It's not zero, and it's not runaway  inflation either. I don't even get into the debate about whether the measurement is appropriate or not. We will take it for now that Core PCE is what the Fed needs to set interest rates. The other side of the coin is the labor market. If you've been listening to this show for a while, you will know that I've been flagging the inconsistencies between the two surveys that make up the employment report. There is the payroll survey and the household survey. The numbers reported in the two surveys are not consistent and have not been consistent for a long time. The employment report is the one that is most likely being overstated. Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a significant downward revision to its employment data for the U.S. down 911,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate. That's a big deal. So with this latest employment data, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut their benchmark lending rate at next week's meeting. The real question is how much, and whether this will affect the medium term bond yield and the 10 year bond yield in particular.The bond yield is a reflection of risk for those bonds that have a risk premium attached to them. I don't believe the US Treasury market is carrying a risk premium. So in the absence of a risk premium, the yield is a reflection of the economy. A weaker economic cycle will pull bond yields down as growth is going to take a hit. A stronger economy will bring inflationary pressure on prices which will tend to drive yields up. We have a 30 day t-bill trading at 4.17%, the 10 year treasury trading at 4.08%, and the 2 year trading at 3.55% and the 5 years trading at 3.61%. This is the market clearly signalling that over the medium term, interest rates are heading lower. That's good news for real estate investors. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

In this episode of the Decrypting Crypto podcast, hosts Matt Howells-Barby and Austin Knight discuss the current state of the crypto market, influenced heavily by macroeconomic factors. They analyze Nvidia's recent earnings report, the implications of jobless claims data, and the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The conversation highlights the growing role of institutional investment in crypto and the market's response to inflation and economic indicators. As they look ahead, the hosts express optimism about the crypto market's trajectory while acknowledging the volatility and uncertainty that may lie ahead.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Weekend Plans03:14 Market Overview and Macro Influences08:22 Nvidia Earnings and AI Market Dynamics15:21 Jobless Claims and Economic Indicators22:09 Core PCE and Inflation Expectations30:26 Future Predictions and Market Sentiment

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.Sponsors:  Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia  Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA  Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 19933:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 19966:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 202419:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality

Beaucoup de données économiques sont attendus en provenance des Etats-UnisCette semaine s'annonce cruciale avec la publication de plusieurs indicateurs économiques importants aux États-Unis.Le rapport JOLT sur le marché de l'emploi fournira des informations clés sur la situation du marché du travail, tandis que la réunion de la Réserve fédérale, prévue aujourd'hui, sera suivie de près, même si aucun changement de taux directeur n'est attendu.Par ailleurs, la publication du PIB du deuxième trimestre donnera un aperçu de la croissance économique, et l'inflation sous-jacente, mesurée par l'indice Core PCE vendredi, permettra d'évaluer les pressions inflationnistes persistantes et d'anticiper les futurs potentiels mouvements sur les taux de la part de la Fed.Le secteur bancaire est au cœur de l'attention en EuropeEn Europe, ce sont les banques qui continuent de soutenir le marché.Elles s'apprêtent à publier leurs résultats du deuxième trimestre, suscitant de fortes attentes chez les investisseurs. Des banques comme Crédit Agricole, Intesa Sanpaolo, ou encore Santander publieront leurs résultats entre aujourd'hui et demain.Ce secteur reste l'un des rares à afficher une croissance solide des bénéfices, ce qui en fait un moteur essentiel pour les marchés européens.Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Entre la Fed, le PIB US, le Core PCE, le NFP, les publications Tesla, Apple, Meta, et la pression sur les cryptos, tout peut basculer.

David Faber and Jim Cramer covered all of the bases on a historic day for the stock market: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each set new all-time highs. Hear what Cramer had to say about skyrocketing stocks and how younger investors are approaching this market. The anchors reacted to Nike shares soaring on quarterly results and guidance, as CEO Elliott hill implements the company's turnaround plan. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge also in the spotlight -- Core PCE for May came in a bit hotter than expected. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

The latest core PCE price index showed a 2.7% increase, higher than Wall Street estimates. Kevin Hincks says investors aren't reacting too harshly to the numbers as members of the Fed target a potential interest rate cut in September. He notes the trade deal framework between the U.S. and China acting as a bullish buffer to that print.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizaron los datos económicos más recientes de Estados Unidos, destacando la caída inesperada en el ingreso personal (-0.4%) y el gasto personal (-0.1%) durante mayo, ambos por debajo de las expectativas del mercado. Además, comentaron cómo la inflación, medida por el índice PCE, se mantuvo en 2.3% anual, mientras que la inflación subyacente (Core PCE) subió a 2.7%, cifras que muestran presiones persistentes sobre los precios y un consumidor cada vez más cauteloso.Posteriormente, abordaron el contexto económico de China, marcado por la deflación y la debilidad industrial, y profundizaron en el reciente tratado comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, analizando sus implicaciones globales. El episodio cerró con un repaso al reporte trimestral de Nike, donde discutieron los resultados financieros, las estrategias de la directiva y las perspectivas de la empresa en un entorno económico desafiante.

In this week's episode, we delve into the big economic news shaping our world and portfolios. We provide updates on the job market, modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and an uptick in inflation, new tax policies and the National Deficit, and what the Federal Reserve might be thinking for the rest of this year and beyond (notably, the long-lasting implications of the potential loss of safe haven status in U.S. Treasury bonds). Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeSean Poe, Director of Multi-Strategy Research 01:50 – Weekly unemployment claims were 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's claims 02:22 – The second estimate for first quarter of 2025 GDP came in at -0.2%, a minor improvement from the advance estimate of -0.3%. Contributing factors were reduced consumer spending offset by investment increases. 02:55 – In inflation news, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (Core PCE) came in at a 2.5% increase year-over-year; this was the second month of slower results but still above the Fed's goal of 2.0%. Goods inflation continues to be deflationary, while Services inflation remains higher than desired. 05:19 – The trade war is not over as talks continue to evolve in unpredictable ways, exacerbating some of the swing we've seen in market behavior. Legal challenges to the imposition of President Trump's tariffs further complicate global trade deals, suggesting that a measured and diversified approach to portfolio management is a sound course of action. 08:00 – The U.S. annual deficit sits at $1.9 trillion. Proposed tax cuts from the House of Representative would add as much as $2.6 trillion in borrowing, making a potential recession more challenging to manage. This, in addition to the recent downgrades of the U.S. Sovereign debt, may have negative effects on U.S. Treasuries. 09:38 – Minutes from the Fed's May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released this week. Compounding uncertainties have immobilized the Fed from making clear decisions on monetary policy. Two rate cuts are expected for the remainder of 2025, with the first cut potentially at the September FOMC meeting. 12:00 – The 10-year Treasury bond note yield is below 4.5%, which is well below this year's previous peak, though the bond market is still less volatile than equities in times of economic and earnings uncertainty. Long-term investors are seeking to lock in yields of 5% or more and are considering padding their portfolios with high-quality corporate credit to mitigate future economic fluctuations. 14:40 – A primer on private equity: What it is, and what it looks like today. How might it fit into your investment strategy? We also provide an explanation of private equity secondaries investments and how they can be used. 17:09 – The private equity secondary market is projected to experience a 20%-25% increase in the market from 2024 and would then account for about a third of all private equity transaction value. Newsworthy recent examples of Harvard University and Yale University selling a portion of their private equity holdings to secondaries funds to free up liquidity in anticipation of an increased tax burden and future legal challenges. Additional ResourcesJoin us on June 11 for our Midyear Investment UpdateKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

First Time Homebuyers Hit a Record Low With the high cost of housing and higher interest rates, people trying to get their first home dropped to a record low around 23% in 2024. The average age of the first-time homebuyer has increased 10 years over the historical average to 38 years old. The median income is now $97,000 and the first-time home buyers are coming up with an average down payment of 9% of the value of the home. Many of these young buyers are using FHA loans, which require a very small down payment and according to research roughly 30% of all FHA mortgages have a debt service ratio of over 50%. This means more than half of these buyers' incomes is going toward servicing debt. This could be a hard pill to swallow for young buyers with not much money left over for luxuries like vacations and new cars. However, if when they buy the home, they understand that if they really tighten their belts for the next three to four years, they will probably be fine. New home builders are doing what they can to try and get rid of the largest inventory of unsold homes on their lots since 2009. The median price of a new home is currently less than one percent higher than the median price of existing properties, which historically has seen a 17% premium. The home builders are using profits from their homes to buy down mortgages. Even though the 30-year mortgage was recently around 6.8%, home builders can buy these mortgages down which led buyers of new homes to a rate around 5%. Buying down these rates has cost home builders about 8% of the purchase price of the home. This reduces their profits but better than the alternative of sitting on unsold homes with a carrying cost for the builder. I don't see this situation getting better anytime soon because I'm not looking for a large decrease in mortgage rates and incomes over the next year will probably increase somewhere around 3 to 4%. We continue to believe the rapid increase in the price of homes over the last few years will not last and it will now take some time to get back to normal market. Maybe we will see a better real estate market in 2027 or 2028.   Is Bitcoin coming to your 401k? I have been concerned with bitcoin and crypto as a whole for several years for many reasons including fraud, illicit activity, and the fact that there is really no way to derive an intrinsic value for it since there is no earnings, cash flow, or anything really backing the asset class. I was disappointed to see the current Labor Department removed language that cautioned employers to exercise “extreme care” before making crypto and related investments available to their workers. They cited “serious concerns” about the prudence of exposing investors' retirement savings to crypto given “significant risks of fraud, theft, and loss.” While this isn't necessarily a full-on endorsement for placing crypto in 401k plans, it definitely seems like the administration is continuing on its path to try and normalize crypto as an established asset class. Even with this change in language I would be surprised to see a huge surge in cryptocurrencies within 401k plans. Ultimately, ERISA bestows a fiduciary duty on employers and company officials overseeing 401k investments and that means legally employers must put the best interests of 401(k) investors first and act prudently when choosing which investments to offer (or not offer). Given the extreme volatility within crypto I believe it would be a huge risk for these companies to offer it as it could open them up to lawsuits if there are major declines. We'll have to see what other changes are made as time progresses, but I don't believe crypto has any place within a 401k plan at this time.   Inflation report shows continued progress The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is also known as PCE and is the Federal Reserve's key inflation measure, showed an annual increase of just 2.1%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 2.5%. Both results were 0.1% below their respective estimates. Overall, inflation has continued to cool and is now quite close to the Fed's 2% target. The question that remains is how will tariffs ultimately impact inflation? An economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that he believed core PCE would peak later this year between 3.0% and 3.5%, if the current mix of tariffs remained in place. I would say it is difficult to forecast the tariff impact since we don't know what will ultimately be passed on to the end consumer. It will definitely be interesting to see what numbers look like in the coming months, but ultimately, I believe most of the concerns around inflation are overblown and even if the rate for PCE is around 3%, I don't see that as being problematic for the economy.     Financial Planning: What it Means to be an Accredited Investor An accredited investor is someone who meets specific income or net worth thresholds—such as earning over $200,000 annually ($300,000 with a spouse) or having over $1 million in net worth excluding their home—and is allowed to invest in private securities offerings not registered with the SEC. These investments, which include private REITS, private equity, hedge funds, and startups, often promise high returns but carry significant risks such as illiquidity, limited transparency, and the potential for total loss. While many of these offerings are only available through fiduciary advisors—who are legally obligated to act in their clients' best interest—investors must still exercise caution. Fiduciary duty applies only in certain contexts (such as investment advice) and may not extend to related areas like insurance or commission-based products. Additionally, what qualifies as “acting in your best interest” is often subjective and open to interpretation. Working with a fiduciary does not guarantee protection, and investors should remain vigilant, ask questions, and independently evaluate any recommendation. Also, private investments aren't necessary better than public investments, so just because you qualify as an accredited investor doesn't mean you should be investing in private securities.   Companies Discussed: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Target Corporation (TGT) & Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Hawaii is now pushing the climate agenda by placing a tax on tourists. Watch tourism drop off. Its all about taxing the people. Feds favorite inflation indicator shows that inflation has gone down. The Fed is now trapped, their plan has failed. They will try again. Appeals court has now allowed Trump to continue with the tariffs, China violated the tariffs agreement. The [DS] is playing their hand and they are showing the world what a real insurrection looks like. Trump is playing the long game, he knows the people must see it so the people move to remove those individuals that support the judicial coup. Trump is following the constitution and proving to the country that the [DS] is putting the country into a constitutional crisis. This is not about a band-aid fix, this is about reclaiming the government and taking the power back. The [DS] is beging destroyed. Economy https://twitter.com/TomFitton/status/1928227336010228155   Despite Tariff-flation Fearmongering, Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four-Year Low The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY... Source: Bloomberg Services inflation is slowing rapidly... Source: Bloomberg Headline PCE fell to +2.1%...   Finally, for all the terror of tariffs in the soft survey data, spending continues to increase and incomes are growing strongly... ...it's gonna be hard for Powell to justify the 'pause' now. Source: zerohedge.com Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier. Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1928445800717168981 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1928494968869380555 John Deere to Invest $20 Billion in America – New Assembly Lines, Factories, and US Steel  A major announcement from John Deere is giving more hope for a future with a prosperous economy. According to the company website, John Deere will invest $20 billion in the United States over the next decade, with hometowns where these investments will go seeing a projected $25 billion impact. Factories in Tennessee, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois will see new expansions, new assembly lines, or new factories altogether. Additionally, the company boasted a majority of the raw steel used in these factories will be from the United States. A more specific breakdown showed new assemble lines in Waterloo, Iowa; an expansion to the factory in Greenville, Tennessee; a new excavator factory in Kernersville, North Carolina; a 60,000-square-foot expansion to the factory in Moline, Illinois; and a 120,000-square foot expansion in Missouri. John Deere included in their release that 75 percent of all products sol...

Maandag 26 mei:De impact van het beleid van president Trump blijft voelbaar op de economische cijfers. Deze week blikken we vooruit op de orders voor duurzame goederen in de VS. In maart kregen we nog een stijging, maar komt er nu opnieuw een daling?De Federal Reserve blijft de Core PCE-index van zeer nabij volgen voor haar monetaire beleidskeuzes rond inflatie. Want die index toont metingen bij de Amerikaanse consumenten.We blikken ook vooruit op de kwartaalresultaten van Nvidia, want ondanks een sterke groei wordt nu voor het eerst sinds lange tijd gerekend op winststabilisatie. Z 7 op 7 is de nieuwe dagelijkse podcast van Kanaal Z en Trends. Elke ochtend, vanaf 5u30 uur luistert u voortaan naar een selectie van de meest opmerkelijke nieuwsverhalen, een frisse blik op de aandelenmarkten en een scherpe duiding bij de economische en politieke actualiteit door experts van Kanaal Z en Trends.Start voortaan elke dag met Z 7 op 7 en luister naar wat echt relevant is voor uw business, onderneming, carrière en geld.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, coming well off worst levels from the early session and seeing a sharp rally in the closing minutes. Big story today was the soft Q1 GDP report showing economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. ADP private payrolls of 62K missed. GDP price index of 3.5% hotter than estimates. Core PCE price index up 3.5%.

Reading the economic reports this week, GDP was lower than anticipated. It was honestly quite bad, but consumer spending is up, month over month, from February to March 2025. The Core PCE inflation numbers came in higher than expected, and it is anticipated that the Fed will hold rates steady at next Wednesday's meeting. But, will we get a quick knee jerk reaction that will give many homeowners and homebuyers an opportunity to lock in an interest rate? 60% of analysts are expecting our first rate cut from the Fed in 2025 to be at their June meeting. Traders and investors will be hanging on to every word that is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says trying to gauge their next move. I am predicting a good amount of volatility following the meeting. If the market swings in our favor, it could be the best rates that we have seen in 2025. 844-935-3634, call us! Debbie Marcoux - AZ-0941504, CA-237926, Fl-LO76508, GA-69178, ID, IL-031.0058339, NC, NV-57237, OR, TN-184373, TX, WA-MLO-237926 | JMJ Financial Group NMLS ID #167867 |Licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, Licensee Number 01134087. Interest rates and products are subject to change without notice and may or may not be available at the time of loan commitment or lock-in. Borrowers must qualify at closing for all benefits.

En este episodio, repasamos los temas más importantes del día: • Wall Street abre con cautela: Los futuros bajan levemente con $SPX -0.1%, $US100 -0.1%, $INDU -0.1%, mientras los traders se enfocan en una semana cargada de earnings y macro. Se esperan Core PCE, PIB y payrolls. Hoy, índice manufacturero de la Fed de Dallas. • CrowdStrike apuesta por la ciberseguridad autónoma: $CRWD lanza Charlotte AI Agentic Response y Workflows, avanzando hacia un SOC sin intervención humana. Las nuevas herramientas permiten detección, investigación y respuesta automatizadas. • Salesforce presenta avances en Agentforce: $CRM destaca “innovación radical” en IA con nuevas funciones para programación, HR y multicanal. Needham mantiene rating Buy, PT $400, resaltando el Testing Center y Agent Interaction para optimizar el feedback de los agentes. • Huawei desafía a Nvidia con nuevo chip IA: Huawei prueba el procesador Ascend 910D, diseñado para competir con el $NVDA H100. Las primeras muestras estarán listas a finales del próximo mes. Busca liderar en el entrenamiento de modelos de IA en China. Un episodio para entender cómo la tecnología, los resultados corporativos y los datos económicos estarán moviendo el mercado esta semana. ¡No te lo pierdas!

Trump Tariffs = Uncertainty around Inflation + Slowing Interest Rate Cuts!What do we do during uncertain times? How are our customers feeling? + A special fun story to change the subject from Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt!Check out this week's news updates, build Strong Business, and serve your customers better!Takeaways:

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the U.S. Consumer Confidence report, GDP, PCE inflation, equities, the credit market, and municipal bonds. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management03:20 – The Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence report was released and showed a decline in overall consumer confidence due to factors such as the stock market, inflation, and others03:58 – The final estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter 2024 was reported at 2.4%, slightly revised up from prior estimates 04:41 – The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Core PCE inflation at 0.4% month-over-month in February, as well as 2.8% year-over-year, both unfavorable06:11 – Comments on the equities market and how the market's volatility is influencing investors' thinking surrounding trades11:31 – Though the recent PCE inflation report was less than favorable, the credit markets, investment grade and high yield bond spreads don't seem to be adversely affected by the reading, as of now15:22 – Remarks on the municipal bond market and changing dynamics of yield opportunities for investorsAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private BankKey Questions: How Do We Invest in Tech? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Futures traded lower in reaction to the latest economic data that showed slowing consumer spending. Alex Coffey joins from the Cboe Global Markets and breaks down the report to explain what's drawing down arrows. On A.I., Alex says the rotation out of tech shows a "crowded trade that isn't done yet." He says A.I. stocks need to find a sustainable bottom for a rebound.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode, Eric recaps the latest market action as the S&P 500 breaks back above the 200-day moving average following a strong Monday rally. He covers key levels from SpotGamma.com, including updated put and call walls, and discusses this week's major economic events like GDP, Core PCE, and Consumer Sentiment. Eric also shares a few SPX trade setups from Alpha Crunching, including a bullish 7-day put credit spread using the Weekly Triumph Rate, and explains how he's navigating recent market volatility by staying mechanical.Use code SPX50 for 50% off your first month at https://www.alphacrunching.com and start trading with confidence. Interested in joining Alpha Traders Club? Click Here for a 7 Day TrialWant to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 24th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week: A dovish Fed sees risk sentiment rally LEI & US CEO business confidence both fall sharply Gold uptrend stalls, while Brent sits on key $69 support April 2nd tariff deadline looms Key data releases this week: Monday – EZ, UK & US flash PMIs Tuesday – German IFO, US home sales & consumer confidence Wednesday – Australian CPI, UK CPI Thursday – Japan Tokyo CPI, US jobless claims, pending home sales Friday – UK retail sales, US Umich sentiment, Core PCE deflator CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it's contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it's just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we'll be watching closely. Plus: The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs. Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback. Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%? It's all in this week's episode.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance

We're baaaaack! On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can't take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down. Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what's the Fed's next move? Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed. To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter. 

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

En el episodio de hoy, Miguel Enrique Muñoz Bencosme y Juan Manuel de los Reyes discuten sobre el reporte de Nvidia. Desglosan el reporte y dan su análisis a futuro, tratando de responder por qué el mercado no ha respondido de forma positiva a un reporte tan bueno, el cual implicó un incremento en ventas de hasta 122% año con año. Además, hablan en detalle de los últimos datos de PIB y de consumo de Estados Unidos, que han superado las expectativas de los analistas, y nos hablan de la economía americana robusta y un consumo que se ha mantenido. También detallan el dato del Core PCE y su opinión acerca del futuro de la economía americana.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of U.S GDP and Core PCE data, and Nvidia earnings. In the UK – a look at the weakness in Germany's economy. In Asia – a look at Japan's leadership election. Edward Harrison, Bloomberg Senior Editor and the author of "The Everything Risk" newsletterKunjan Sobhani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor AnalystOliver Crook, Bloomberg's Germany Correspondent Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg Tokyo Bureau Chief See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29)

Kathy and Liz Ann catch up on recent market volatility, the Fed's next move, and changes in the economic data. There is some debate about whether the Fed should cut by 50 basis points in September or the expected 25 basis points. They also touch on the importance of inflation, the labor market, and global growth in the Fed's decision-making process. Next, Kathy is joined by Matt Hastings, managing director and head of Bond Index Strategies for Schwab Asset Management. He leads the portfolio management team for the Schwab taxable bond mutual funds and Schwab fixed income ETFs and has overall responsibility for all aspects of the management of the funds. They discuss Matt's background in the industry, his role at Schwab, and the challenges of managing fixed income portfolios on a day-to-day basis. Matt and Kathy discuss how index tracking works, the vital role of liquidity in the bond market, recent market volatility, and the impact of Fed policy. Matt provides insights into the role of bond funds and ETFs for investors and emphasizes the importance of understanding what you're buying.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and market events.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.​Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investorsThe information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.ISM is the Institute for Supply Management.  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/(0824-ECAD)

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this morning's Core PCE inflation number and various earnings. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visithttps://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with solid performances from big tech (though Nvidia again underperformed). The big focus this week was on some disappointing key corporate updates, the Trump-Biden presidential debate, the May PCE report, and a continued volatile macro narrative. Core PCE inflation was in line with consensus with April revised slightly upward.

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On this episode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year. In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here

Markets end mixed; Core PCE inflation cools; Gap shares pop; Anchor Brewing finds buyer.

On the final trading day of May, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed market reaction to the Fed's preferred inflation measure -- Core PCE. With AI in the spotlight, the anchors reacted to shares of Dell plunging despite better-than-expected quarterly results. Also in focus: Proxy advisor ISS urges Tesla shareholders to reject Elon Musk's multi-billion dollar pay package, former President Trump's guilty verdict, what Best Buy's CEO told Jim about AI PCs on "Mad Money," earnings winners and losers, activist investor speaks out about casino and sports gambling company Penn Entertainment. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer 

Inflation isn’t going anywhere, and listeners wanna know what’s up with two of the government’s inflation measures. Today, we’re answering some nerdy econ questions about the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index. We’ll also answer questions about how the Supreme Court gets funded and the ins and outs of joint fundraising committees. Got a question you’d like us to answer? Email makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice mail at 508-U-B-SMART! Here’s everything we talked about today: “How does the government measure inflation?” from Brookings “Why the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation” from Marketplace “What is the Core PCE price index?” from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Courts, Programs, and Other Items Funded by Congressional Appropriations for the Federal Judiciary” from the Congressional Research Service “US judiciary set to receive modest spending boost from Congress” from Reuters “Judicial Compensation” from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts “Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate” from The New York Times  “A guide to political money: campaigns, PACs, super PACs” from Associated Press “Joint fundraising: A campaign strategy to increase contributions” from Marketplace “Fundraising for Super PACs by federal candidates” from the Federal Election Commission Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty.

Inflation isn’t going anywhere, and listeners wanna know what’s up with two of the government’s inflation measures. Today, we’re answering some nerdy econ questions about the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index. We’ll also answer questions about how the Supreme Court gets funded and the ins and outs of joint fundraising committees. Got a question you’d like us to answer? Email makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice mail at 508-U-B-SMART! Here’s everything we talked about today: “How does the government measure inflation?” from Brookings “Why the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation” from Marketplace “What is the Core PCE price index?” from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Courts, Programs, and Other Items Funded by Congressional Appropriations for the Federal Judiciary” from the Congressional Research Service “US judiciary set to receive modest spending boost from Congress” from Reuters “Judicial Compensation” from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts “Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate” from The New York Times  “A guide to political money: campaigns, PACs, super PACs” from Associated Press “Joint fundraising: A campaign strategy to increase contributions” from Marketplace “Fundraising for Super PACs by federal candidates” from the Federal Election Commission Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty.

Inflation isn’t going anywhere, and listeners wanna know what’s up with two of the government’s inflation measures. Today, we’re answering some nerdy econ questions about the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index. We’ll also answer questions about how the Supreme Court gets funded and the ins and outs of joint fundraising committees. Got a question you’d like us to answer? Email makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice mail at 508-U-B-SMART! Here’s everything we talked about today: “How does the government measure inflation?” from Brookings “Why the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation” from Marketplace “What is the Core PCE price index?” from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Courts, Programs, and Other Items Funded by Congressional Appropriations for the Federal Judiciary” from the Congressional Research Service “US judiciary set to receive modest spending boost from Congress” from Reuters “Judicial Compensation” from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts “Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate” from The New York Times  “A guide to political money: campaigns, PACs, super PACs” from Associated Press “Joint fundraising: A campaign strategy to increase contributions” from Marketplace “Fundraising for Super PACs by federal candidates” from the Federal Election Commission Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty.

Core PCE rises 0.3% in February; wholesale and retail inventories grow; the U.S. trade deficit expands; feds send first emergency funds for Baltimore bridge.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43pRAau Generally, a pretty market-friendly statement from the Fed, with some upgrading on the economy with GDP estimates moving up from 1.4% to 2.0%, they lowered their unemployment rate forecasts from 4.1% to 4% and raised the Core PCE forecasts by two-tenths to 2.6% for the year (and we are already at 2.8% now mind you). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3uKcswq A positive day in markets this Leap Year Thursday centered around PCE data that was inline with estimates for the month of January with December being revised lower. Headline year over year PCE rose 2.4%, and removing food and energy, Core PCE increased 2.8% from a year earlier. The dichotomy for 2023 was between goods price deflation of -.5% and services price inflation of 3.9%. So where does this all leave us? T his was the last major inflation data point prior to the FOMC meeting on 3/20, so the Fed is leaving rates unchanged in March, most likely the same (as of now) in May, with about a 50/50 chance for a rate cut in June. The bond market, fed futures, and the Fed's own dot plots are estimating 75 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market rally of the last few weeks is based on strong economic data, suggesting that the U.S. and Europe remain on track for a “soft landing.” ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Corporate Credit Research for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, December 1st at 2 p.m. in London. November 2023 is now in the history books. It was outstanding. US bonds rose 4.5%, the best month since 1985. Global stocks rose 9%, the best month in three years. Spreads on an investment grade and high yield bonds tightened significantly. With the exception of commodities and Chinese stocks, which both struggled, November was an early holiday gift to investors of many stripes. While the size of the rally in November was unusual, the direction didn't just spring from thin air. Generally speaking, economic data in November strongly endorsed the idea of a soft landing. Soft landing, where inflation falls without a sharp drop in economic activity are historically rare. But they are Morgan Stanley's economic forecast for the year ahead. And in November, investors unwrapped data suggesting the story remains on track. In the US, core consumer price inflation declined more than expected. Core PCE inflation, a slightly different measure that the Federal Reserve prefers, has fallen down to an annualized pace of just 2.5% over the last six months. Gas prices are down 16% since the summer, rental inflation has stalled and the U.S. auto production is normalizing, improving the trend in three big drivers of the higher inflation we've seen over the last two years. Go back 12 months and most forecasts, including our own, assume that lower inflation would be the result of higher interest rates driving a slowdown in growth. But the economy has been good. Over the last 12 months, the U.S. economy has grown 3%, .5% better than the average since 1990. The story in Europe is a little different from the one in America, but it still rhymes. In Europe, recent inflation data has also come in lower than expected. While economic data has been somewhat weaker. Still, we see signs that the worst of Europe's economic growth will be confined to 2023 and continue to forecast the weakest growth right now, with somewhat better European growth in 2024. Why does this matter? While the returns of November were unusual and unlikely to repeat, it's a good reminder not to overcomplicate things. Good data, by which we mean lower inflation and reasonable growth, is a good outcome that markets will reward, and remains the Morgan Stanley economic base case. Deviating on either variable is a risk, especially for an asset class like credit. Following the data and keeping an open mind, remains important. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.