Podcasts about core pce

Discover the latest economic update. Second-quarter GDP grew at a slower-than-expected annual rate of 1.5%, but much of the weakness came from temporary factors like lower inventories and reduced government spending rather than a broad slowdown in the private economy. Consumer spending remained strong, inflation continued to ease on a monthly basis, and private-sector demand was robust. While the Federal Reserve is still waiting for inflation to move closer to its 2% target before cutting rates, the underlying economic picture remains healthier than the headline GDP number suggests. Key Takeaways GDP grew 1.5% in the second quarter, below expectations. Consumer spending accelerated to 2.1%, showing continued economic resilience. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose a strong 3.9%, highlighting solid underlying demand. Core PCE inflation eased to 0.1% for the month but remains 3.3% year-over-year, above the Fed's target. The Fed is likely to remain patient on interest rates until inflation shows more sustained improvement. The personal savings rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level in four years, suggesting consumers are relying more on savings to maintain spending. Are you on track for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest can make the biggest difference to your financial freedom and lifestyle. If you invested well for the long-term, what a difference it would make because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters!  INVESTING IS WHAT THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE IS ALL ABOUT - Invest in digital assets and stock ETFs for potential high compounding rates - Receive an Asset Allocation model with ticker symbols and what % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda 10 months per year, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily community interaction -Weekly investment commentary -Extra educational wealth classes available -Pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring membership fees. -US and foreign investors are welcome -No minimum $ amount to invest -Tech Team available for digital assets (for hire per hour) For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional recurring fees. Pay once and you're done! Invest with our successful community for years to come. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or set up a complimentary conversation to answer your questions about the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Request an appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed LINDA'S WEALTH BOOKS 1. Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". 2. Get my book, "You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!" Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning.  SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here.  #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom.  (This post contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and make a purchase, I may receive a commission. There is no additional cost to you.)  

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, interesting coverage from two different news services; the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the advance estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP, in a separate report, the BEA, released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve's primary forecasting gauge; oil prices reacts to increased "hostilities" between the U.S. and Iran, a proposed Saudi Arabia led 14 country coalition to boost defense around the Red Sea, an attack on an Egyptian port and events in the war between Ukraine and Russia; Kevin has the details digs into the details, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, interesting coverage from two different news services; the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the advance estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP, in a separate report, the BEA, released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve's primary forecasting gauge; oil prices reacts to increased "hostilities" between the U.S. and Iran, a proposed Saudi Arabia led 14 country coalition to boost defense around the Red Sea, an attack on an Egyptian port and events in the war between Ukraine and Russia; Kevin has the details digs into the details, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Happy 250th! The bulls are bubbling up! Yentervention – it is a thing. Labor market predictions. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - 250 Years! - We have the scorecard - Bulls are on the loose! - Kevin Hassett - what a putz - RAM JOB! Markets - Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one - SpaceX bonds already losing -Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention? WHAT A PUTZ! - Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office. - Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028. - Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money. - Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap. - Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood. - Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club. - However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism. - Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money. - So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism. First-Half Winners and Losers - S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure. - Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%. - Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%. - Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%. - Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%. - Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff. - Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders. - Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries. - Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade. - Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain... MORE.... - Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013 - Japan best quarter ever - Oil starts and ends - Kospi best quarter in 30 years - Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years Something is going to break! - When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break - MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron's latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11. - HUGE uptick in guidance - Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases, - NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory - Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers. - Samsung's plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang. - SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply. - Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex. - The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones. - Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles. - Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities. RAM Job? - Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing. - Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers. - Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market. - Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years. - Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike. - Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time. DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before - Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s. - DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002. - Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine. - Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine. - Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine. - Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path. - Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty. - State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims. - Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don't fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce - Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74. - S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%. - S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks. - Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component. - Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%. - The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names. Comcast Breaks Itself Up - Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies. - NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable. - Completion expected within a year. - Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal. - Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal. AI Trade Gets a Warning Label - Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk. - The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain. - BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks. - Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other." - The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile. Inflation Back Above 4% - BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May. - April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%. - This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. - Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes. - Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%. - Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software. Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News - June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. - The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes. - Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. - Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts. Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine - Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines. - Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75. - Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing. - The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies. - This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat. --- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened. Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock - Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target. - Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday. - Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention. - New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title. - Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally. - Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze. - Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million. SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut - SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal. - Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders. - The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys. - Bonds weakened quickly after pricing. - The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points. - Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure. - The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions. - Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down. Yentervention - Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years. - Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time." - Market does not seem scared for long. - Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160. - U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly. - That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars. - Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: the U.S. Commerce Department reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the Core PCE, as well as Personal Income and Personal Savings; Tim Wullenweber, Vice President of Sales and Manufacturing, Coolants Plus - Starfire, joins the show to talk about their facility expansions, the next generation of heavy-duty engine oil and new products; the University of Michigan reported their Consumer Sentiment Survey; oil prices react to Middle East production, Strait of Hormuz traffic, weekend Iranian attacks - U.S. retaliations highlighting the fragility of the interim peace deal; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Michael Santoli led off the show with tech and the AI Trade: Shares of Micron soared after the memory chip maker posted a blowout quarter. Apple announced it is hiking prices on MacBooks and iPads due to the memory chip crunch. Shares of the iPhone maker fell sharply, helping to drag the Nasdaq into negative territory in Thursday's trading and erasing the optimism sparked by Micron. Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose in May to year-on-year levels not seen since 2023. Also in focus: Qualcomm surges, oil prices fall to fresh pre-Iran war lows, a JPMorgan Chase executive seen a potential successor to CEO Jamie Dimon is leaving the bank, Anthropic vs. Alibaba, all things SpaceX.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The inflation report the Federal Reserve watches more closely than any other has just been released... So what does it tell us about the future of interest rates—and the markets? In today's episode, we break down the latest Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and explain why today's numbers could have a major impact on stocks, bonds, and investor expectations for the months ahead. The big questions are: Is inflation finally under control? Or are hopes for lower interest rates fading once again? We'll discuss: What the latest Core PCE report revealed Why the Federal Reserve focuses on Core PCE over CPI How today's data could influence future interest rate decisions The impact on equities, bonds, commodities, and the U.S. dollar What traders should be watching next But inflation isn't the only story moving markets. We'll also take a closer look at Micron Technology and its latest developments, examining how the memory chip giant is influencing the broader semiconductor industry and AI supply chain. What does Micron's outlook mean for companies like Apple? We'll discuss: Why Micron's performance matters to the entire tech sector How semiconductor pricing impacts Apple's margins Whether AI-driven demand is creating new opportunities—or new risks—for Big Tech This episode connects macroeconomics with one of the market's hottest sectors, giving you the bigger picture behind today's headlines. Listen now:

Kevin Hincks takes investors through the slew of economic data this morning, which showed a 4.1% uptick year-over-year on the headline number. Also on his docket: GDP, durable goods orders, and jobless claims. Kevin explains how he sees all of this data playing into the Fed's interest rate expectations. He then turns to the FOMC's bank "stress test." ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Paisley Nardini and Jeff Klingelhofer break down the latest inflation data, noting that while overall pressures have eased, services and AI-related costs remain sticky. They highlight core PCE rising to 3.4% in May, keeping the Fed cautious despite a strong labor market. While a near-term rate hike looks unlikely, they say persistent inflation could shape policy further out.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news more vessels are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, but 'incidents' are generating nervousness in a fragile situation. First, US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May and as expected, a rise from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation rose too, also as expected and is now at 3.4%. Meanwhile both personal income and personal spending rose at essentially the same pace. More generally, it is not only the Gulf war impacts driving inflation. AI is pushing companies to raise prices to cover its 'investment'. For example, Macbooks and iPads are up +20% on this 'recovery' push. May durable goods orders in the US fell sharply from April, but recall that April was relatively strong. But from a year ago they are also lower, down -4.4%. Capital goods orders dived -21.5% in May from a year ago largely on very weak aircraft orders. US initial jobless claims fell slightly more than expected last week and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.73 mln people on these benefits, lower than year-ago levels. But much tighter requirements are preventing many from claiming this or other social safety net options. The Chicago Fed's national activity index slipped lower in May after the somewhat unusual improvement in April. That means it has decreased in eight of the past twelve months, and was flat in another one. However the Kansas City Fed factory survey was much more positive in that region in its June edition, delivering one of its most upbeat results since the post-pandemic recovery. Global container freight rates rose another +5% last week to extend its rising trend that started in early May by adding +82% in that period. From a year ago it is up only +40%. Driving this latest rise are outbound rate from China to the US West Coast. Bulk cargo freight rates were little-changed this week however, remaining +60% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen back to US$4032/oz, up a net +US$54/oz from yesterday. Silver is just on US$58/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up with 41 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 21 entering for new loads (3 dark). There are still hundreds yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. And overnight one ship was hit by live-fire after an Iran warning and this incident saw the oil price rise. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is unchanged from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been high at just over +/- 3.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

The Fed held today. Rates stay at 3.5%-3.75%. But here's the thing — the hold was not the news. The news was in the dot plot. The median projection for where rates will end 2026. Core PCE inflation was revised up to 3.3%. And unemployment? Revised up to 4.3%. Rising inflation and rising unemployment in the same forecast. That is the stagflation signal, and if you've been in this business long enough, you know what that means: the Fed is in a corner.Now let me tell you why they're in that corner, because this is the part that almost nobody is saying out loud.Oil went from $53 a barrel at the start of the year to one hundred and twelve  because of the Iran conflict. It's retreating now — call it $76— on peace deal expectations. That move, from $53 to $112 and back down, had absolutely nothing to do with the federal funds rate. Rate hikes can slow down the economy. They can reduce demand for gasoline. What they cannot do — not even a little — is increase the supply of oil coming out of a war zone. They cannot reopen a blocked strait. They cannot convince OPEC to pump more barrels. In fact, here is the crazy part. We are at tank bottoms in Cushing Oklahoma. A lot of folks focus on the strategic petroleum reserve as an indicator of inventory. But the tank levels in Cushing Oklahoma are far more important. These levels need to be maintained at certain minimums in order for the refineries to operate. If the flow of oil were to stop even briefly, it would force refineries to shut down in a disorderly manner and restarting would take weeks. So prices this low combined with real inventory this low is unprecedented and is not an accurate reflection of the true supply and demand situation.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Kevin covers and discusses the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported Weekly Jobless Claims; the U.S. Commerce Department reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index and the Core PCE; the Commerce Department also reported the second revision of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); oil and gas prices react to reports of a ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran, claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that they had targeted a U.S. airbase in Kuwait; changes in the U.S. oil, gas and distillate stockpiles; Kevin has the details, digs into the details, puts the data into historical perspective, offers his insights, and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin covers and discusses the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported Weekly Jobless Claims; the U.S. Commerce Department reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index and the Core PCE; the Commerce Department also reported the second revision of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); oil and gas prices react to reports of a ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran, claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that they had targeted a U.S. airbase in Kuwait; changes in the U.S. oil, gas and distillate stockpiles; Kevin has the details, digs into the details, puts the data into historical perspective, offers his insights, and opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella e Tomás Goulart debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada pelo aumento do otimismo em relação a um possível acordo entre Estados Unidos e Irã. Ao longo dos últimos dias, Trump indicou que restariam poucos pontos para um entendimento, incluindo questões relacionadas ao programa nuclear iraniano e às condições de reparação do país. O mercado encerra a semana com expectativa mais positiva sobre a possibilidade de avanço nas negociações. Nos dados econômicos, o Core PCE veio abaixo do esperado, com surpresa baixista concentrada em serviços ex-habitação. O dado representou a primeira surpresa baixista relevante de inflação após sequência de números mais fortes, embora os indicadores anualizados ainda permaneçam acima da meta do Fed. No Brasil, a semana trouxe dados econômicos relevantes. O IPCA veio levemente acima do esperado, com surpresa concentrada em alimentação no domicílio e energia elétrica, enquanto os núcleos permaneceram em linha. O Caged veio abaixo das expectativas, sugerindo desaceleração marginal do mercado de trabalho, embora a PNAD tenha continuado mostrando força, com nova mínima da taxa de desemprego e crescimento robusto da massa salarial. O PIB do primeiro trimestre veio em linha com o esperado, mas com composição forte, reforçando revisões altistas para o crescimento de 2026. No campo político, seguiram os efeitos das medidas expansionistas do governo e dos desdobramentos envolvendo Flávio Bolsonaro. Nos mercados, a semana foi marcada por forte desempenho das bolsas globais. As bolsas americanas subiram entre 1,5% e 3%, enquanto mercados ligados à tecnologia continuaram se destacando, com alta expressiva na Coreia do Sul e desempenho positivo de emergentes. Os juros fecharam globalmente, com destaque para os Treasuries, enquanto o petróleo caiu cerca de 9% na semana, refletindo o maior otimismo com um possível acordo geopolítico. O dólar teve comportamento misto, enquanto o ouro avançou levemente. No Brasil, o Ibovespa caiu cerca de 1%, pressionado pela Petrobras e pelo ambiente doméstico. Na próxima semana, destaque para dados de atividade e mercado de trabalho nos EUA, além da continuidade das negociações entre EUA e Irã.

New home sales slid and core PCE came in-line with expectations Thursday morning, though the latter metric remains higher than expected compared to recent months. Kevin Green explains how all the economic data plays into consumer and stock market health. On international movers, KG highlights the lasting impacts the U.S.-Iran War has on crude oil as futures move above $90 once again. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at records on Thursday as tech resumed its leadership, and traders weighed a reported agreement between U.S. and Iranian negotiators to extend the ceasefire. The broader index gained 0.58% to 7,563.63, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.91% to 26,917.47. Both indexes also hit intraday all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.05% at 50,668.97.Tech stocks rallied Thursday, after a strong earnings outlook from Snowflake revived enthusiasm around the AI trade. Shares soared 36.5%, posting its best day ever after the cloud-based data platform provider issued rosy fiscal second quarter guidance.Core PCE slightly better than expected - GDP revised down - SPI up 52 - Gold higher—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

Today's show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven't looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that's worth paying attention to. If you're interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you'll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show.  https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/------------We're talking about proposed changes to how inflation is calculated, and what that could mean under a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.Now, before we get into the implications, let's start with a simple premise. If you change how you measure something… you change the outcome. And if you change the outcome… you change the decisions that follow. That's exactly what's at stake here.The Fed pays attention to the Core Personal Consumptions Expenditures index (Core PCE). But both of these measures have… let's call them limitations.They rely heavily on statistical adjustments. Hedonic adjustments. Substitution effects. Owner's equivalent rent.These are not trivial details. These are structural assumptions baked into the data.For example, if steak becomes too expensive and consumers switch to chicken, the index assumes that substitution and dampens the measured inflation.But here's the problem. From a lived experience standpoint, people don't feel like inflation has gone down. They feel like their standard of living has declined.That disconnect between reported inflation and experienced inflation is one of the biggest credibility challenges facing central banks today.And that's where someone like Kevin Warsh could represent a shift. If a Warsh-led Fed were to move toward a more “common sense” measure of inflation—less adjusted, less modeled, more observable—you could end up with systematically higher reported inflation.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Juan Manuel de los Reyes analizan una jornada cargada, con la Fed, un monton de datos macro y resultados corporativos de las grandes tecnológicas.En el frente de política monetaria, se discute la decisión de la Fed de mantener tasas sin cambios y el anuncio de Jerome Powell de que dejará la presidencia pero permanecerá en el Board como gobernador. En el frente macro, el GDP del primer trimestre, el Core PCE trimestral, el PCE de marzo, los datos de empleo y el ingreso y gasto personal del consumidor.En el bloque corporativo, Amazon reporta un trimestre sólido liderado por AWS y un guidance de Q2 que superó ampliamente las estimaciones; Meta presenta ingresos fuertes pero acumula una venta en el pre-market tras elevar su guía de CapEx; Alphabet supera en Cloud y Search con el reporte más limpio del grupo; Microsoft bate en Azure pero cotiza a la baja por una guía de márgenes levemente por debajo de lo esperado.

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Juan Manuel de los Reyes y Andre Dos Santos analizan las primeras horas del alto al fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán y las señales que apuntan a su fragilidad. Israel lanzó la Operación “Eternal Darkness" horas después del anuncio, con más de 160 municiones sobre Líbano; Irán declaró tres cláusulas del acuerdo ya violadas; y el Estrecho de Hormuz sigue sin el tráfico que el pacto prometía restablecer.En el frente macro, el episodio repasa los datos de la mañana: el ingreso personal de febrero sorprendió a la baja en territorio negativo, mientras el GDP del cuarto trimestre completó su tercera revisión consecutiva a la baja. El PCE y el Core PCE se mantuvieron en línea con el consenso. Los hosts contextualizan estas cifras dentro del riesgo de estanflación que el shock energético ha puesto sobre la mesa.En el bloque corporativo: CoreWeave y Meta anuncian un acuerdo expandido de infraestructura de IA; ExxonMobil advierte una caída en producción del primer trimestre por el impacto del conflicto en sus operaciones del Golfo; Delta reporta resultados del trimestre de marzo y anticipa un golpe de costos de combustible que ya la llevó a subir tarifas de equipaje.

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en verde antes de una mañana cargada de datos: PCE y GDP como los catalizadores principales para tasas y expectativas de la Fed. Core PCE esperado en 3.1% anual vs 3.0% previo: inflación aún “pegajosa” y menos espacio para recortes pronto; hoy también sale JOLTS como termómetro del empleo. $ADBE cae fuerte por anuncio de salida del CEO pese a buenos resultados; $META baja tras reporte de que su modelo “Avocado” se retrasa y no iguala a rivales.

Is the 2026 stock market sitting on the edge of something bigger? In this video, we talk through why it feels like we are at the precipice, with major uncertainty surrounding the economy, inflation, mortgage rates, real estate, oil prices, and the war in Iran. We break down how all of these forces connect and why investors are watching every new headline so closely.We also explain PCE and Core PCE, two of the inflation measures that matter most to the Federal Reserve, and why they could play a big role in what happens next for interest rates and the stock market. If you want a big-picture discussion on where markets may be heading and what risks could shape the rest of 2026, this episode is for you.All Information is educational in its intent and distribution! Please do not consider this personal financial advice. We believe all clients have unique situations and thus require unique advice.

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it. While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target.

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it.While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target.This is not a soft landing.Deficits are exploding. Tariff revenue is disappearing. The national debt is surging. The bond market is weakening. And the Federal Reserve is trapped between a weakening economy and rising inflation.That trap has only one historical resolution: monetary expansion.Gold is moving because the market understands what policymakers won't admit. The dollar's purchasing power is deteriorating. Sovereign debt risk is rising. Global capital is repositioning.This is not about daily volatility. It's about systemic imbalance.When growth weakens and inflation accelerates at the same time, the outcome isn't recovery — it's currency stress.Gold is signaling the next phase.Our Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber reacted to a raft of economic data: Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose in December, while GDP showed much slower than expected economic growth in Q4. Private credit fears also in the spotlight: Blue Owl Co-President and Head of Credit Craig Packer joined the anchors at Post 9 for a wide-ranging and exclusive interview. Also in focus: CNBC has confirmed Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a funding round for the startup, Oil prices hit fresh six-month highs on U.S.-Iran tensions, bright spots Cramer sees in this market, Warner Bros. Discovery update, why one particular stock plummeted — down more than 48%. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today's report delivered a mixed signal that markets don't like:

Werbung | 52 Wochen Handelsblatt mit 40 % Rabatt: Gedruckt oder digital - jetzt sichern unter www.handelsblatt.com/wissen2026 US-Futures rutschen am Freitag nach einem klar schwächeren BIP-Print: Q4 nur +1,4% statt erwarteter +2,5% – der Markt preist damit wieder stärker „Fed muss unterstützen“. Der PCE-Inflationsreport nimmt etwas Druck raus: Core PCE liegt bei 3% und damit im Rahmen – trotzdem bleibt Inflation oberhalb des 2%-Ziels, und die Fed-Minutes zeigen: einige wollen erst mehr Disinflations-Belege sehen. Zusätzlicher Katalysator ist ein mögliches Supreme-Court-Urteil zu Trumps IEEPA-Zöllen – viele an der Wall Street erwarten einen positiven Move, falls die Zölle gekippt werden. Gleichzeitig bleibt Geopolitik ein Störfaktor: Trump spricht von einer Entscheidung über mögliche Iran-Schläge binnen 10 Tagen, Öl handelt nahe 6-Monats-Hochs. Im Hintergrund sorgt Blue Owl für Stress im Private-Credit-Segment: Rücknahmen werden dauerhaft eingeschränkt, nach dem Verkauf von $1,4 Mrd. an Kredit-Assets – „Canary in the coal mine“, sagen Kritiker. Kurz: Wachstum kühlt stärker ab, Inflation bleibt zäh – und der Markt wartet auf den nächsten Trigger: SCOTUS und nächste Woche Nvidia-Zahlen. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. ► Mehr Einblicke: https://bit.ly/360wallstreetpc * Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum *Werbung

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe world is continually paying the [CB]s more and more of their hard earned labor. In Germany the people are taxed 42%, almost half of their income. Fed inflation indicator reports no inflation, Truinflation reports inflation is at 1.2%.BoA and Citibank are in talks to offer 10% credit card. Trump says US will the crypto capital of the world. Globalism/[CB] system has failed, the power will return to the people. The patriots are sending a message, DOJ 2.0 is not like DOJ 1.0, same with the FBI, you commit a crime you will be arrested. The message is clear, the protection from these agencies are gone. Bondi arrest the Church rioters. Trump’s message at DAVOS is clear, the [DS] power and agenda is no more. Trump is now in control and the world will begin to move in a different direction, either you are on board or you will be left behind. The power belongs to the people.   Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2014289396112011443?s=20 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway ‘Trump Tariff’ Costs The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than September’s +2.9%…   Bear in mind that this morning’s third look at Q3 GDP printed a +2.9% YoY for Core PCE. Under the hood, the biggest driver of Core PCE remains Services costs – not tariff-driven Goods prices…   In fact, on a MoM basis, Non-durable goods prices saw deflation for the second month in a row…   Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/truflation/status/2014322072286302619?s=20 – Food – mostly Eggs – Household durables – particularly housekeeping supplies – Alcohol & tobacco – mostly alcoholic beverages Our number is derived by aggregating millions of real-time price data points every day to calculate a year-over-year CPI % rate. It is comparable but not identical to the survey-based official headline inflation released monthly by the BLS, which was 2.7% for December. Bank Of America, Citigroup May Launch Credit Cards With 10% Rate Two weeks after Trump shocked the world by demanding lenders cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, Bank of America and Citigroup are exploring options to do just that in an attempt to placate the president.  Bloomberg reports that both banks are mulling offering cards with a 10% rate cap as one potential solution.  Earlier this week, Trump said he would ask Congress to implement the proposal, giving the financial firms more clarity about what exact path he's pursuing. Bank executives have repeatedly decried the uniform cap, saying it'll cause lenders to have to pull credit lines for consumers.  Source: zerohedge.com Trump sues JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon for $5B over alleged ‘political’ debanking The lawsuit claims JPMorgan’s decision ‘came about as a result of political and social motivations’ to ‘distance itself’ Trump and his ‘conservative political views’  President Donald Trump is suing JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon in a $5 billion lawsuit filed Thursday, accusing the financial institution of debanking him for political reasons. The president's attorney, Alejandro Brito, filed the lawsuit Thursday morning in Florida state court in Miami on behalf of the president and several of his hospitality companies.  “ Source: foxnews.com https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2013984082640658888?s=20  WEF Finance/Banking Panel – If Independent National Economies Continue Rising, Global Trade Drops and We Lose Control Globalism in its economic construct is a series of dependencies. If those dependencies are severed, if each country has the ability to feed, produce and innovate independently, then the entire dependency model around globalism collapses. Within the globalism model that was historically created there was a group of people, western nations, banks, finance and various government leaders, who controlled the organization and rules of the trade dependencies.  The action being taken for self-sufficiency, in combination with the approach promoted by President Trump that each nation state should generate their own needs, then the rules-based order that has existed for global trade will collapse. If nations are no longer dependent, they become sovereign – able to exist without the need for support from other nations and systems. If nations are indeed sovereign, then globalism is no longer needed and a threat of the unknown rises. How will nations engage with each other if there is no governing body of western elites to make the rules for engagement?  The need for control is a reaction to fear, and it is the fear of self-reliance that permeates the elitist class within the control structures.   If each nation of the world is operating according to its individual best interests, the position of Donald Trump, then what happens to the governing elite who set up the system of interdependencies. This is the core of their fear. If each nation can suddenly grow tea, what happens to the East India Tea Company.  Who then sets the price for the tea, and worse still an entire distribution system (ships, ports, exchanges, banks, etc.) becomes functionally obsolescent. Source: theconservativetreehouse.com  Political/Rights TWO-TIERED JUSTICE: Conservative Journalist Kaitlin Bennett Charged and Fined for Interviewing Democrats in Public — While Don Lemon Storms Churches With Zero Consequences The United States now operates under a blatantly two-tiered justice system, where conservative journalists are criminally charged for speech in public spaces, while left-wing media figures face zero consequences for harassing Americans and disrupting religious services. Conservative journalist Kaitlin Bennett revealed this week that she was charged with a federal crime and fined by the National Park Service in St. Augustine for the so-called offense of asking Democrats questions on public property. According to Bennett, federal agents targeted her while she was conducting on-the-street interviews, a form of journalism protected by the First Amendment. Despite being on public land, Bennett says she was cited and punished simply for engaging in political speech that the Left finds inconvenient. Bennett addressed the incident directly in a post on X, writing: https://twitter.com/KaitMarieox/status/2014174254799958148?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2014174254799958148%7Ctwgr%5Ef4a6650cd0c60d38edfea018c5665c2cc2fe5199%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Ftwo-tier-justice-conservative-journalist-kaitlin-bennett-charged%2F When asked by another local journalist exactly what “lawful order” Bennett had disobeyed, the ranger reportedly could not provide a straight answer. WATCH: Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/2014322865848406370?s=20   Alexander Conejo Arias, fled on foot—abandoning his child. For the child's safety, one of our ICE officers remained with the child while the other officers apprehended Conejo Arias.   Parents are asked if they want to be removed with their children, or ICE will place the children with a safe person the parent designates. This is consistent with past administration's immigration enforcement. Parents can take control of their departure and receive a free flight and $2,600 with the CBP Home app. By using the CBP Home app illegal aliens reserve the chance to come back the right legal way. https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/2014049440911303019?s=20   inflicting corporal injury on a spouse or cohabitant. An immigration judge issued him a final order of removal in 2019. In a dangerous attempt to evade arrest, this criminal illegal alien weaponized his vehicle and rammed law enforcement. Fearing for his life and safety, an agent fired defensive shots. The criminal illegal alien was not hit and attempted to flee on foot. He was successfully apprehended by law enforcement. The illegal alien was not injured, but a CBP officer was injured.  These dangerous attempts to evade arrest have surged since sanctuary politicians, including Governor Newsom, have encouraged illegal aliens to evade arrest and provided guides advising illegal aliens how to recognize ICE, block entry, and defy arrest. Our officers are now facing a 3,200% increase in vehicle attacks. This situation is evolving, and more information is forthcoming.   https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2014063905413177637?s=20  CNN Panelist Issues Retraction and Apology After Going Too Far in On-Air Trump Attack    footage of CNN's “Newsnight with Abby Phillip” was posted to social media platform X featuring 25-year-old leftist activist Cameron Kasky alongside panel mainstay Scott Jennings. A moment between the two went viral when Kasky casually declared that President Donald Trump had been involved in an international sex trafficking ring. Jennings wasn't going to let that remark go unchallenged by host John Berman. The topic of conversation had been Trump's interest in Greenland and the Nobel Peace Prize, but Kasky threw in a jab at Trump with an allusion to the president's relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — an allusion Kasky's now trying to walk back. “I would love it if he was more transparent about the human sex trafficking network that he was a part of, but you can't win 'em all,” he blurted out. https://twitter.com/overton_news/status/2013455047288377517?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2013455047288377517%7Ctwgr%5E20edbbd712c7076d1aafdac2d1e39d7eb8307263%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fcnn-panelist-issues-retraction-apology-going-far-air%2F   Berman asked Jennings a follow-up question about Greenland, but instead of addressing that, Jennings circled back to Kasky's remark. “You're gonna let that sit?” Jennings asked Berman. “Are we going to claim here on CNN that the president is part of a global sex trafficking ring or …?” After assuring Jennings that he would do the fact-checking, Berman asked Kasky to repeat what he'd said about the global sex-trafficking ring. “That Donald Trump was … probably … very involved with it,” the arrogant young man replied, with perhaps a touch less confidence. To Berman's credit, and the CNN legal team's, he immediately said, “Donald Trump has never been charged with any crimes in relation to Jeffrey Epstein.” https://twitter.com/camkasky/status/2013760245298864477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2013760245298864477%7Ctwgr%5E20edbbd712c7076d1aafdac2d1e39d7eb8307263%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fcnn-panelist-issues-retraction-apology-going-far-air%2F Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2014189561002291385?s=20 DOGE Geopolitical https://twitter.com/brentdsadler/status/2014311942119137584?s=20  important as these agreements cover the entirety of the Chagos group of islands/features. Critical as future third party presence in those areas proximate Diego Garcia could in practical terms render those U.S. military facilities operationally impractical (ie useless). The current deal under consideration in the UK parliament in a rushed vote as soon as 2 February is ill advised. And it likely would break the decades long understanding with the U.S. government. See: Active U.S. treaties: https://state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Treaties-in-Force-2025-FINAL.pdf 1966 Foundational Understanding: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20603/volume-603-I-8737-English.pdf 1972 Understanding regarding new facilities on Diego Garcia: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20866/volume-866-I-8737-English.pdf 1976 Understanding and concurrence on new communications facilities on Diego Garcia and references as foundational the 1966 Understanding: https://treaties.fcdo.gov.uk/data/Library2/pdf/1976-TS0019.pdf?utm_source https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/2014150131247874267?s=20 The EU-Mercosur deal is a major free trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay). Negotiated for over 25 years, it aims to create one of the world’s largest free trade zones, covering more than 700 million people and reducing tariffs on goods like cars, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.  It includes commitments on sustainability, labor rights, and environmental protections, but critics argue these are insufficient to address issues like Amazon deforestation and unfair competition for European farmers. The agreement was politically finalized in 2019 but faced delays due to environmental concerns and opposition from countries like France and Austria. It was formally signed on January 17, 2026, after EU member states (with a qualified majority, despite opposition from five countries including France) greenlit it on January 9.  The Stupidity of Davos Explained Using an Example of Their Own Creation China is manufacturing a product to create a carbon credit certificate in response to the demand for carbon credits from all the world auto-makers.  Any nation that has a penalty or fine attached to their climate goals is a customer. Those are nations with fines or quotas associated with the production of gasoline powered engines if the auto company doesn't hit the legislated target for sales of electric vehicles. In essence, EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies buy Chinese car company carbon credits, to avoid the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN fines.  The Chinese then use the carbon credit revenue to subsidize even lower priced Chinese EVs to the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car markets, thereby undercutting the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies that also produce EVs. China brilliantly exploits the ridiculous pontificating climate scam and has an interest in perpetuating -even emphasizing- the need for the EU/AU/RU/ASEAN countries to keep pushing their climate agenda.  China even goes so far as to fund alarmism research about climate change because they are making money selling carbon credit certificates on the back end of the scam to the western fear mongers.  This is friggin' brilliant.   The climate change alarmists are helping China's economy by pushing ever escalating fear of climate change.  You just cannot make this stuff up. What does the outcome look like? Well, in this example we see hundreds of thousands of unsold BYDs piling up in countries that emphasize climate regulations with no restrictions on the import of EVs (which most don't even manufacture), which is almost every country.  Big Panda doesn't care about the car itself; they care about generating the carbon credit certificate to sell in the various carbon exchanges. Put this context to the recent announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney about his new trade deal with China to accept 49,000 EVs this year. Prime Minister Carney bragged about getting the Chinese to agree to only super low prices for the Canadian market.  Mark Carney was very proud of his accomplishment to get much lower priced vehicles for Canadian EV purchasers.   No doubt Big Panda left the room laughing as soon as Carney made his grand announcement. 1. China sells EV's in Canada, creating credits available on the carbon exchange scheme. Europe et al will purchase the carbon credits because Bussels has fines against EU car companies. 2. With a foothold already established in Europe, China will then take the money generated by the carbon credit purchases and lower the prices of the Chinese EV cars sold in Canada. It's gets funnier. 3. Carney bragged about forcing China to only sell low price EV's as part of the trade agreement. The low price of the EV's in Canada will be subsidized by Europe. China doesn't pay or lose a dime. But wait…. 4. Carney can't do anything about the scheme he has just enmeshed Canada into, because Canada has a Carbon Credit exchange in law.

George Tsilis takes investors through a slew of economic data that hit markets Friday morning. On consumer sentiment, he notes a year-over-year decline, but a range in recent months shows stabilization. Core PCE and existing home sales both ticked higher, prints George Tsilis says are relevant for the Fed's interest rate cutting path. On the international front, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to the highest level since 1995, something George believes U.S. investors should watch. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc

This week, we have the latest on the Fed's favorite inflation indicator—the core PCE price index—and tell you why new home sales are surging but existing home sales are not. Filmed at Brown Harris Stevens' Studio 1873, Part of the Mastery of Real Estate (MORE) Network. Subscribe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crossing-the-line/id1715709313 Watch: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7_x00Dbn3OSwzBAeflzGNqX3GrWvOMdJ Connect with Greg Heym: https://www.bhsusa.com/about-gregory-heym Market Report Data: https://www.bhsusa.com/market-reports Submit your "Crossing the Line" questions: CTL@bhsusa.com Connect with Scott Nadler of CrossCountry Mortgage: https://crosscountrymortgage.com/brooklyn-ny-5601/scott-nadler/ Connect with Shar Sedgh of Sedgh & Zuckerman PLLC: shar@sznylaw.com Learn More About The Everset: https://theeverset.com/ Brown Harris Stevens is one of the largest privately owned real estate brokerages in the country, with more than 40 offices across four states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Florida. https://bhsusa.com/ #crossingtheline #economy #realestate #theline #gregheym #mortgagerates #brownharrisstevens #crosscountrymortgage #mortgage

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is imposing tariffs on the rest of countries to bring manufactures back to this the US. The US economy is growing the Fed is going to try to stop the growth by pushing back on the rate cut. The Fed inflation detector shows no sign of runaway inflation. Trump is now pushing the narrative to fire Powell, leverage is the name of the game. The [DS] is panicking, Trump and team are now indicting those who are treasonous to this country. The started out with the lying, he is testing the waters, testing the judges building the narrative for the people of this country. The [DS] players are pushing back by using Antifa. These will intensify over time and Trump will counter the insurgency/insurrection with the military. The military is the only way, buckle up.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1 Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said the sweeping tariffs leave major questions unanswered, including whether they comply with existing trade agreements, but predicted they would “almost certainly drive up prices for American buyers.” Source: zerohedge.com Mexico is the largest supplier of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., followed by Canada, Japan, Germany, and Turkey. Heavy-truck shipments from U.S. plants climbed from a low of $1.1 billion in April 2020 to $3.2 billion this July, though they have dipped modestly this year, Federal Reserve data shows.   Fed cautious on rate cuts as GDP surges; warns of potential inflation risks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the central bank will weigh the GDP numbers carefully as it considers future rate cuts. “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later,” Powell said. Source:  13wham.com  Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides  After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE - the Fed's favorite indicator - to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY... and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations. Indeed, "as expected" is the them of this morning's data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years... not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every "respected" economist predicted. All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most.  On the income side, there was more good news: after outpacing the private sector for nearly three years, wage growth of private workers (5.0% YoY) is once again rising faster than government workers. In fact, government worker wage growth of 4.2% was the lowest since August 2021.   Source: zerohedge.com    Political/Rights BREAKING: Sinclair Caves, Will Bring Jimmy Kimmel's Show Back 

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc

September while seasonally weak has been a HUGE winner for me. Here are 4 things I learned from Alpha Picks and the recent winners I've had. Here are the links to all the sales: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TRENDSPIDER - The best charting software EVER - just over $50/month with my link ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its first rate cut in nine months. While the reduction was widely expected, our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen explain the data that markets and the Fed are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Our topic today is the Fed's first quarter percent rate cut in 2025. We're here to discuss the implications and the path forward. It's Thursday, September 18th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, the Fed concluded its meeting on Wednesday. What was the high-level takeaway from your perspective?Michael Gapen: So, I think there's two main points here. There's certainly more that we can discuss, but two main takeaways for me are obviously the Fed is moving because it sees downside risk in the labor market.So, the August employment data revealed that the hiring rate took a large step down and stayed down, right. And the Fed is saying – it's a curious balance in the labor market. We're not quite sure how to assess it, but when employment growth slows this much, we think we need to take notice.So, they're adjusting their view. We'll call it risk management 'cause that's what Powell said. And saying there's more risk of worse outcomes in the labor market, keeping a restricted policy stance is inappropriate, we should cut. So that's part one. I think he previewed all of that in Jackson Hole. So, it was largely the same, but it's important to know why the Fed's cutting. The second thing that was interesting to me is as much as he, Powell in this case, tried to avoid the idea that we're on a preset path. That, you know, policy is always data dependent and it's always the meeting-to-meeting decision – we know that. But it does feel like if you're recalibrating your policy stance because you see more downside risk to the labor market, they're not prepared to just do once and go, ‘Well, maybe; maybe we'll go again; maybe we won't.' The dot plots clearly indicate a series of moves here. And when pressed on, well, what's a 25 basis point rate cut going to do to help the labor market, Powell responded by, well, nothing. 25 basis points won't really affect the macro outcome, but it's the path that that matters. So, I do think; and I use the word recalibration; Powell didn't want to use that. I do think we're in for a series of cuts here. The median dot would say three, but maybe two; two to three, 75 basis points by year end. And then we'll see how the world evolves. Matthew Hornbach: So, speaking of the summary of economic projections, what struck you as being interesting about the set of projections that we got on Wednesday? And how does the Fed's idea of the path into 2026 differ from yours?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, it was a lot about downside risk to the labor market. But what did they do? They revised up growth. They have the unemployment rate path lower in the outer years of their forecast than they did before, so they didn't revise down this year. But they revised down subsequent years, and they revised inflation higher in 2026. That may seem at odds with what they're doing with the policy rate currently.But my interpretation of that is, you know, the main point to your question is – they're more tolerant of inflation as the cost or the byproduct of needing to lower rates to support the labor market. So, if this all works, the outlook is a little stronger from the Fed's perspective. And so, what's key to me is that they are… You know, the median of the forecast, to the extent that they align in a coherent message, are saying, we're going to have to pay a price for this in the form of stronger inflation next year to support the labor market this year. So that means in their forecast – cuts this year, but fewer cuts in 2026 and [20]27. And how that differs from our forecast is we're not quite as optimistic on the Fed, as the Fed is on the economy. We do think the labor market weakens a little bit further into 2026. So, you get four consecutive rate cuts upfront, again, inclusive of the one we got on Wednesday. And then you get two additional cuts by the middle of 2026. So, we're not quite as optimistic. We think the labor market's a little softer. And we think the Fed will have to get closer to neutral, right? Powell said we're moving “in the direction of neutral.” So, he's not committing to go all the way to neutral. And we're just saying we think the Fed ultimately will have to do that, although they're not prepared to communicate that now.Matthew Hornbach: One of the things that struck me as interesting about the summary of economic projections was the unemployment rate projection for the end of this year. So, the way that the Fed delivers these projections is they give you a number on the unemployment rate that represents the average unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the specified year. And in this case, the median FOMC participant is projecting that the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent. And that's what we're forecasting as well, I believe. And so, what struck me as interesting is that with an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of the year, which is up about 0.2 percent from today's unemployment rate of 4.3 – the Fed is only projecting one additional rate cut in 2026. And I'm curious, do you think that if we in fact get to the end of this year, and it looks like the unemployment rate has averaged about 4.5 percent – do you expect the Fed to continue to forecast only one rate cut in 2026?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's… Um. The short answer is no. I think that's a challenging position to be in. And by that, I mean, in addition to that unemployment rate forecast where it's 4.5 percent for the average of the fourth quarter, which could mean December's as high as 4.6; we don't know what their monthly forecast is.But that would mean the unemployment rate's risen about a half a percentage point from its lows a few months ago. And they have inflation rising to 3 percent. Core PCE is already 2.9. So, inflation is about where it is today; [it's] a touch firmer. But the unemployment rate has moved higher. And so, what I would say is they haven't seen a lot of evidence by December that inflation's coming back down, and the labor market has stabilized.So, this is why we think they will be more likely to get to a neutral-ish or something closer to neutral in 2026 than they're prepared to communicate now. So, I think that's a good point. So, Matt, if I could turn it back to you, I would just like first to ask you about the general market reaction. The 25 basis point cut was universally expected. So really all the potentially new news was then about the forward path from here. So how did markets reply to this? Yields did initially sell off a bit, but they generally came back. What's your assessment of how the market took the decision?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the initial five, 10 minutes after the statement and summary of economic projections is released, everybody's digesting all of the new information. And generally speaking, investors tend to see what they want to see initially in all of the materials. So initially we had yields coming down a bit, the yield curve steepened a bit. But then about half an hour later, it became clear – just right before the press conference had started; it became clear to people that actually this delivery in the documentation was a bit more moderate in terms of the forward look. That it was a fairly balanced assessment of where things are and where things may be heading.And that in the end, the Fed, while it does want to bring interest rates lower, at least in the modal case, that it is still not particularly concerned about downside risks to activity, I should say, than it is concerned about upside risks to inflation. It very much seems a balanced assessment of the risks. And I think as a result, the market balanced out its initial euphoria about lower rates with a moderation of that view. So, interest rates ended up moving slightly higher towards the end of the day. But then, the next day they came back a bit. So, I think, it was a bit more of a steady as they go assessment from markets in the end.Michael Gapen: And do you see markets as maybe changing their views on whether you know, it is a recalibration in the stance, therefore we should expect consecutive cuts? Or is the market now thinking, ‘Hey, maybe it is meeting by meeting.' And what about the Fed's forecast of its terminal rate versus the market's forecast of the terminal rate. So, what happened there?Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. Yeah. So, in terms of how market prices are incorporating the idea that the Fed may cut at consecutive meetings through the end of the year, I think markets are generally priced for an outcome about in line with that idea. But of course, markets, and investors who trade markets, have to take into consideration the upcoming dataset and with the Fed so data dependent; so, meeting by meeting in terms of their decisions – it could certainly be the case that the next employment report and/or the next inflation report could dissuade the committee from lowering rates again, at the end of October when the Fed next meets. So, I think the markets are, as you can expect, not going to fully price in everything that the Fed is suggesting. Both because the Fed may not end up delivering what it is suggesting; it might, or it may deliver more. So, the markets are clearly going to be data dependent as well. In terms of how the market is pricing the trough policy rate for the Fed – it does expect that the Fed will take its policy rate below where the summary of economic projections is suggesting. But that market pricing is more representative I think of a risk premium to the expectations of investors, which generally are in line or end up moving in line with the summary of economic projections over time. So, given that the Fed has changed the economic projections and the forecast for policy rates, investors probably also end up shifting a bit in terms of their own expectations. So, with that, Mike, I will bid you adieu until we speak again next time – around the time of the October FOMC meeting. So, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt,Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

When you listen to J Powell speak from the podium at the FOMC meeting he typically talks about managing the Fed's dual mandate to maintain price stability and to maximize employment. The past several years have been focused on taming inflation. Core PCE inflation measured 0.3% for the past two months June and July. We will get the August report on Sept 26. On an annualized basis Core PCE inflation remains pretty sticky at 2.9%. This is higher than the Fed's 2% target. It's not zero, and it's not runaway  inflation either. I don't even get into the debate about whether the measurement is appropriate or not. We will take it for now that Core PCE is what the Fed needs to set interest rates. The other side of the coin is the labor market. If you've been listening to this show for a while, you will know that I've been flagging the inconsistencies between the two surveys that make up the employment report. There is the payroll survey and the household survey. The numbers reported in the two surveys are not consistent and have not been consistent for a long time. The employment report is the one that is most likely being overstated. Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a significant downward revision to its employment data for the U.S. down 911,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate. That's a big deal. So with this latest employment data, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut their benchmark lending rate at next week's meeting. The real question is how much, and whether this will affect the medium term bond yield and the 10 year bond yield in particular.The bond yield is a reflection of risk for those bonds that have a risk premium attached to them. I don't believe the US Treasury market is carrying a risk premium. So in the absence of a risk premium, the yield is a reflection of the economy. A weaker economic cycle will pull bond yields down as growth is going to take a hit. A stronger economy will bring inflationary pressure on prices which will tend to drive yields up. We have a 30 day t-bill trading at 4.17%, the 10 year treasury trading at 4.08%, and the 2 year trading at 3.55% and the 5 years trading at 3.61%. This is the market clearly signalling that over the medium term, interest rates are heading lower. That's good news for real estate investors. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

In this episode of the Decrypting Crypto podcast, hosts Matt Howells-Barby and Austin Knight discuss the current state of the crypto market, influenced heavily by macroeconomic factors. They analyze Nvidia's recent earnings report, the implications of jobless claims data, and the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The conversation highlights the growing role of institutional investment in crypto and the market's response to inflation and economic indicators. As they look ahead, the hosts express optimism about the crypto market's trajectory while acknowledging the volatility and uncertainty that may lie ahead.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Weekend Plans03:14 Market Overview and Macro Influences08:22 Nvidia Earnings and AI Market Dynamics15:21 Jobless Claims and Economic Indicators22:09 Core PCE and Inflation Expectations30:26 Future Predictions and Market Sentiment

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.Sponsors:  Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia  Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA  Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 19933:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 19966:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 202419:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality

David Faber and Jim Cramer covered all of the bases on a historic day for the stock market: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each set new all-time highs. Hear what Cramer had to say about skyrocketing stocks and how younger investors are approaching this market. The anchors reacted to Nike shares soaring on quarterly results and guidance, as CEO Elliott hill implements the company's turnaround plan. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge also in the spotlight -- Core PCE for May came in a bit hotter than expected. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

The latest core PCE price index showed a 2.7% increase, higher than Wall Street estimates. Kevin Hincks says investors aren't reacting too harshly to the numbers as members of the Fed target a potential interest rate cut in September. He notes the trade deal framework between the U.S. and China acting as a bullish buffer to that print.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizaron los datos económicos más recientes de Estados Unidos, destacando la caída inesperada en el ingreso personal (-0.4%) y el gasto personal (-0.1%) durante mayo, ambos por debajo de las expectativas del mercado. Además, comentaron cómo la inflación, medida por el índice PCE, se mantuvo en 2.3% anual, mientras que la inflación subyacente (Core PCE) subió a 2.7%, cifras que muestran presiones persistentes sobre los precios y un consumidor cada vez más cauteloso.Posteriormente, abordaron el contexto económico de China, marcado por la deflación y la debilidad industrial, y profundizaron en el reciente tratado comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, analizando sus implicaciones globales. El episodio cerró con un repaso al reporte trimestral de Nike, donde discutieron los resultados financieros, las estrategias de la directiva y las perspectivas de la empresa en un entorno económico desafiante.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Hawaii is now pushing the climate agenda by placing a tax on tourists. Watch tourism drop off. Its all about taxing the people. Feds favorite inflation indicator shows that inflation has gone down. The Fed is now trapped, their plan has failed. They will try again. Appeals court has now allowed Trump to continue with the tariffs, China violated the tariffs agreement. The [DS] is playing their hand and they are showing the world what a real insurrection looks like. Trump is playing the long game, he knows the people must see it so the people move to remove those individuals that support the judicial coup. Trump is following the constitution and proving to the country that the [DS] is putting the country into a constitutional crisis. This is not about a band-aid fix, this is about reclaiming the government and taking the power back. The [DS] is beging destroyed. Economy https://twitter.com/TomFitton/status/1928227336010228155   Despite Tariff-flation Fearmongering, Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four-Year Low The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY... Source: Bloomberg Services inflation is slowing rapidly... Source: Bloomberg Headline PCE fell to +2.1%...   Finally, for all the terror of tariffs in the soft survey data, spending continues to increase and incomes are growing strongly... ...it's gonna be hard for Powell to justify the 'pause' now. Source: zerohedge.com Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier. Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1928445800717168981 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1928494968869380555 John Deere to Invest $20 Billion in America – New Assembly Lines, Factories, and US Steel  A major announcement from John Deere is giving more hope for a future with a prosperous economy. According to the company website, John Deere will invest $20 billion in the United States over the next decade, with hometowns where these investments will go seeing a projected $25 billion impact. Factories in Tennessee, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois will see new expansions, new assembly lines, or new factories altogether. Additionally, the company boasted a majority of the raw steel used in these factories will be from the United States. A more specific breakdown showed new assemble lines in Waterloo, Iowa; an expansion to the factory in Greenville, Tennessee; a new excavator factory in Kernersville, North Carolina; a 60,000-square-foot expansion to the factory in Moline, Illinois; and a 120,000-square foot expansion in Missouri. John Deere included in their release that 75 percent of all products sol...

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, coming well off worst levels from the early session and seeing a sharp rally in the closing minutes. Big story today was the soft Q1 GDP report showing economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. ADP private payrolls of 62K missed. GDP price index of 3.5% hotter than estimates. Core PCE price index up 3.5%.

En este episodio, repasamos los temas más importantes del día: • Wall Street abre con cautela: Los futuros bajan levemente con $SPX -0.1%, $US100 -0.1%, $INDU -0.1%, mientras los traders se enfocan en una semana cargada de earnings y macro. Se esperan Core PCE, PIB y payrolls. Hoy, índice manufacturero de la Fed de Dallas. • CrowdStrike apuesta por la ciberseguridad autónoma: $CRWD lanza Charlotte AI Agentic Response y Workflows, avanzando hacia un SOC sin intervención humana. Las nuevas herramientas permiten detección, investigación y respuesta automatizadas. • Salesforce presenta avances en Agentforce: $CRM destaca “innovación radical” en IA con nuevas funciones para programación, HR y multicanal. Needham mantiene rating Buy, PT $400, resaltando el Testing Center y Agent Interaction para optimizar el feedback de los agentes. • Huawei desafía a Nvidia con nuevo chip IA: Huawei prueba el procesador Ascend 910D, diseñado para competir con el $NVDA H100. Las primeras muestras estarán listas a finales del próximo mes. Busca liderar en el entrenamiento de modelos de IA en China. Un episodio para entender cómo la tecnología, los resultados corporativos y los datos económicos estarán moviendo el mercado esta semana. ¡No te lo pierdas!

Futures traded lower in reaction to the latest economic data that showed slowing consumer spending. Alex Coffey joins from the Cboe Global Markets and breaks down the report to explain what's drawing down arrows. On A.I., Alex says the rotation out of tech shows a "crowded trade that isn't done yet." He says A.I. stocks need to find a sustainable bottom for a rebound.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode, Eric recaps the latest market action as the S&P 500 breaks back above the 200-day moving average following a strong Monday rally. He covers key levels from SpotGamma.com, including updated put and call walls, and discusses this week's major economic events like GDP, Core PCE, and Consumer Sentiment. Eric also shares a few SPX trade setups from Alpha Crunching, including a bullish 7-day put credit spread using the Weekly Triumph Rate, and explains how he's navigating recent market volatility by staying mechanical.Use code SPX50 for 50% off your first month at https://www.alphacrunching.com and start trading with confidence. Interested in joining Alpha Traders Club? Click Here for a 7 Day TrialWant to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Inflation isn’t going anywhere, and listeners wanna know what’s up with two of the government’s inflation measures. Today, we’re answering some nerdy econ questions about the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index. We’ll also answer questions about how the Supreme Court gets funded and the ins and outs of joint fundraising committees. Got a question you’d like us to answer? Email makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice mail at 508-U-B-SMART! Here’s everything we talked about today: “How does the government measure inflation?” from Brookings “Why the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation” from Marketplace “What is the Core PCE price index?” from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Courts, Programs, and Other Items Funded by Congressional Appropriations for the Federal Judiciary” from the Congressional Research Service “US judiciary set to receive modest spending boost from Congress” from Reuters “Judicial Compensation” from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts “Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate” from The New York Times  “A guide to political money: campaigns, PACs, super PACs” from Associated Press “Joint fundraising: A campaign strategy to increase contributions” from Marketplace “Fundraising for Super PACs by federal candidates” from the Federal Election Commission Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty.

Inflation isn’t going anywhere, and listeners wanna know what’s up with two of the government’s inflation measures. Today, we’re answering some nerdy econ questions about the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index. We’ll also answer questions about how the Supreme Court gets funded and the ins and outs of joint fundraising committees. Got a question you’d like us to answer? Email makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice mail at 508-U-B-SMART! Here’s everything we talked about today: “How does the government measure inflation?” from Brookings “Why the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation” from Marketplace “What is the Core PCE price index?” from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Courts, Programs, and Other Items Funded by Congressional Appropriations for the Federal Judiciary” from the Congressional Research Service “US judiciary set to receive modest spending boost from Congress” from Reuters “Judicial Compensation” from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts “Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate” from The New York Times  “A guide to political money: campaigns, PACs, super PACs” from Associated Press “Joint fundraising: A campaign strategy to increase contributions” from Marketplace “Fundraising for Super PACs by federal candidates” from the Federal Election Commission Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty.