Podcasts about year treasury

Why the "K-Shaped" Economy is WRONG & What Rising Interest Rates Mean for You Is the "K-shaped" economy an accurate description of what Americans are experiencing today? Wes breaks down why the economy looks less like a "K" and more like an "E" — and what that means for your money, spending, and job prospects. Wes also tackles the burning question on every investor and homeowner's mind: What happens if interest rates keep rising? From the 10-Year Treasury yield to the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices, learn how potential rate hikes could impact your mortgage, car loans, and fixed-income portfolio. Mentioned on the show: Axios: The closing of the "K" Remote work -- not AI -- has sidelined recent college graduates 5 Keys To Be a Successful Investor All this and more on the September 8, 2026, Ask an Advisor episode of the Clark Howard podcast. Submit your questions: WesMoss.com/ask Discover the research-backed path to a happier retirement – order The Retire Sooner Method by Wes Moss today at retiresoonermethod.com We hope you enjoy our weekly Ask An Advisor episodes.  Let us know what you think in the comments! Learn more about Wes:  BOOKS BY WES MOSS   Wes Moss, CFP®  Wes Moss - Clark.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mortgage rates jumped from 5.9% to 6.9% since the Iranian conflict began, and I break down the Fed data, jobs report, and oil prices driving the move, plus what it costs your purchasing power.

Mortgage rates jumped toward 7% this week while a weak jobs report just moved the bond market. I break down why oil prices, inflation, and today's Fed data are pushing your rate around, plus how much house you can actually afford right now.

Mortgage rates today are under pressure after Brent crude broke $90 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve just put a rate HIKE back on the table. Here is what moved, what it costs, and what I am telling my clients to do about it.Updated for Monday, August 31, 2026 — Mortgage bonds opened down 15 on oil and Middle East conflict, pushing mortgage rates toward 6.85% and possibly 7%. PCE inflation sits at 3.7% against the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with 54% of the basket running over 3% versus 32% before the pandemic. Inflation has now been above target for 64 straight months. Meanwhile 23,000 jobs were lost in July and May–June revisions erased another 103,000 — and the Fed said plainly it is focused on inflation, not jobs.Here is the part almost nobody explains to homebuyers: the Federal Reserve can raise rates and your mortgage rate can still go down. The Fed sets short-term interbank lending. Mortgage rates track the 10-Year Treasury. If bond investors believe a hike will actually control inflation, long-term yields can fall even while the funds rate rises. That mechanism is walked through at 06:40.What I am telling clients: if you are under contract, lock your mortgage rate. I cannot price around another drone strike. If you are not under contract yet, watch two things — oil and inflation. Oil back under $70 and holding is when the Federal Reserve gets room to cut and mortgage rates can finally come down. Oil at $120 is a very different conversation for the housing market.CHAPTERS00:00 Oil Just Broke $90 — Here's Why That Hits Your Rate00:39 The Chart I Check Every Morning Before Quoting a Rate01:21 What the Federal Reserve Actually Watches01:46 Inflation at 3.7% When the Target Is 2%01:59 The Data This Week That Can Move Mortgage Rates02:40 103,000 Jobs Gone — And the Fed Says It Doesn't Care04:06 The Jackson Hole Speech, Translated06:20 The Odds of a Hike Just Changed06:40 Why a Fed Hike Doesn't Have to Raise Your Mortgage Rate08:31 Lock or Float: What I'm Telling Clients Right Now10:04 Rate Watch, Loan Estimate Review and DIY Mortgage11:16 What to Watch NextNEXT STEPS

Andrew Wells believes the Treasury's planned liquidity boost to longer-term bonds will add long-term pressure to fixed income markets. He points to the "big move" in yields, from the 10-year to the 30-year, as a bigger warning sign than he believes the Treasury is seeing. Andrew adds to his input by explaining how it all weighs on the Fed's interest rate outlook and this week's Jackson Hole symposium.

Mortgage rates moved today on new jobs data, inflation numbers, and home price reports. In this episode I break down today's ADP jobs report, the latest PCE inflation reading, S&P Case Shiller home price data, and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its meeting in 22 days. I also explain the Treasury's plan to refinance long term debt into short term bills and what oil falling 3% today means for mortgage rates and the bond market.WHAT'S IN TODAY'S SHOW

On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown and Nick Colas discuss rising long-term Treasury yields, why real yields not inflation are driving the move, and what higher rates could mean for stocks. Plus, they break down S&P 500 valuations, the earnings revisions powering this year's gains, three paths to new highs, and more insights from DataTrek's latest research. This episode is sponsored by F/m Investments and SGVA, the F/m Accumulator Ultrashort Treasury ETF. To learn more about SGVA, visit Fminvest.com/SGVA Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mortgage rates are in play this week as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury both step in to try to bring rates down, and I'm breaking down exactly what that means for you. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed, this is the episode to watch before the week's economic data starts rolling in.In today's show, I cover:• The Treasury's new bond buying plan (what some are calling "QE light") and how it's designed to push mortgage rates lower • The difference between the federal funds rate and the 10 year Treasury, and why only one of them actually controls your mortgage rate • This week's full economic calendar, including ADP jobs, Case Shiller home prices, PCE inflation, jobless claims, and the Jackson Hole symposium • Why oil prices are the number one thing to watch right now, and what happens to rates if the Iran conflict drags on or resolves • How to track your own rate and payment automatically with our free RateWatch toolRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS 0:00 The Treasury Is Buying Its Own Debt 1:47 What Actually Controls Your Mortgage Rate 3:35 This Week's Economic Calendar 6:10 Why Oil Is the Number to Watch 8:05 RateWatch and What to Do Next

Mortgage rates are about to move — and today I break down exactly what the Federal Reserve is watching before they do. The August 21, 2026 Rate Update for homebuyers and Realtors: PCE vs CPI, jobs and claims, where mortgage rates sit now, and the $100 billion in tariff refunds that went to corporations instead of consumers.CHAPTERS0:00 What This Week's Data Told the Fed1:15 PCE vs CPI — The Inflation Number That Sets Mortgage Rates2:40 Jobs and Jobless Claims: The Fed's Dual Mandate4:10 The Reports That Can Move Mortgage Rates From Here5:45 Where Mortgage Rates Sit Right Now7:00 $100 Billion in Tariff Refunds: Who Actually Got Paid8:30 Target, Amazon, Ford — Refunds Booked Into Earnings9:50 Why Consumers Aren't Getting a Tariff Refund Check10:50 What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do NowMORTGAGE RATE UPDATE — FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2026This week's economic data gave the Federal Reserve exactly what it watches most, and I walk through it the way the Fed actually reads it: PCE inflation over headline CPI, the jobs and jobless claims trend over any single monthly print, and the drivers underneath both — oil, shelter, and services. Then we look at what's ahead on the economic calendar and what could realistically push mortgage rates higher or lower.If you're buying a home, refinancing, or advising clients as a real estate agent, this hits your monthly payment directly. Mortgage rates follow the bond market and the 10-Year Treasury, not the Fed funds headlines — and understanding that difference is the biggest edge a homebuyer has right now.In the second half: roughly $100 billion of the $166 billion in struck-down IEEPA tariffs has been certified and sent out — to importers and corporations, not the consumers who paid it at the register. Target booked $994 million in tariff refunds and $1.65 in earnings per share while confirming it won't issue customer refunds. Amazon collected about $640 million. Ford recorded a $1.3 billion one-time tariff benefit. FedEx and UPS are among the few passing money back.Both halves land on the same place: your buying power.NEXT STEPS

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position: absolute; left: 0; font-weight: 700; color: var(--teal); } /* ── FOOTER ── */ .dfg-post .footer { background: var(--teal); padding: 20px 48px; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 11px; color: rgba(255,255,255,0.75); line-height: 1.6; text-align: center; } .dfg-post .footer a { color: var(--accent); text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; } @media print { .dfg-post { background: white; } .dfg-post .page { box-shadow: none; max-width: 100%; } .dfg-post .publisher-notes { break-inside: avoid; } .dfg-post .cta-box { break-inside: avoid; } .dfg-post .takeaway-item { break-inside: avoid; } } Dupree Financial Group Podcast Show Notes The Tom Dupree Show Episode  ·  August 22, 2026 Why Is the 30-Year Treasury Yield the Highest Since 2007 — And What Does It Mean for Your Retirement Income? by Tom Dupree | Dupree Financial Group | dupreefinancial.com | 859-233-0400 Episode Description On August 17 and 18, 2026, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed above 5.3% — its highest level since 2007, back when the iPhone hadn’t even shipped yet and the word “subprime” was just entering the public vocabulary. On this week’s Financial Hour, Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and Michael Dawahare broke down why that number matters, what the U.S. Treasury Department is doing about it, and — more importantly — what it means for anyone who’s retired or approaching retirement and living off a portfolio. The team walked through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to expand the government’s bond buyback program, why the Treasury is repurchasing old, low-coupon “off-the-run” bonds, and what Bessent meant when he said he has “asymmetric information” the market doesn’t. Mike Johnson explained the mechanics in plain terms: the Treasury doesn’t hold these bonds on its balance sheet the way the Fed does — it swaps them out and reissues shorter-term debt, which theoretically frees up the plumbing in the bond market without actually solving the underlying supply-and-demand problem driving yields higher in the first place. The U.S. Treasury’s own announcement confirms the buyback size is at least doubling, from a $2 billion to a $4 billion per-operation ceiling, effective September 9, 2026 — exactly the increase Tom, Mike, and Michael were reacting to on air. From there, the conversation turned to what’s actually happening underneath the surface of the stock market. Economist Ed Yardeni’s “K-shaped economy” — where some parts of the economy do well and others fall behind — is evolving into what he now calls a “G-shaped economy,” with earnings-driven strength showing up in previously out-of-favor sectors. Coca-Cola hitting an all-time high the same week Walmart’s stock dropped roughly 10% on strong-but-complicated earnings was Exhibit A. Tom and the team also discussed two specific holdings in DFG client portfolios — a commercial real estate mortgage REIT and Verizon — and why research-driven, patient investing in “forgotten” sectors has been paying off for income-focused clients this year. On the mortgage REIT position, the team went deeper than “buy the dip.” The company — sponsored by a large institutional manager with global real estate data and research reach — makes commercial real estate loans, historically concentrated in office properties. When one or two of those loans showed early warning signs, the company increased its loan-loss reserves, which shows up on paper like a write-down even though the loan stays on the books and no cash has actually been lost. The stock sold off on the news. Tom and Mike explained why they added to the position instead of walking away: this management team was conservative during the “nuclear winter” for office real estate a few years ago, has since been letting legacy office loans run off, and is redeploying that capital into multifamily, healthcare, and industrial loans — property types with materially better performance right now. Because these are shorter-duration loans, the portfolio’s characteristics can shift relatively quickly as old loans mature and new ones get written. That combination — a real dividend yield in the double digits today, a management team with a track record of conservative accounting, and a portfolio actively repositioning into stronger property types — is why DFG treated the sell-off as a buying opportunity for income-focused clients rather than a reason to sell. Verizon came up for a different reason: SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service and the ongoing question of whether it can realistically compete in the cellphone business. Mike and Tom were skeptical, pointing to a CNBC analyst’s explanation that a satellite-based “cell tower” sits roughly 220 miles away compared to the two or three miles most people are used to today — a gap that raises real questions about latency and practicality for everyday phone calls, whatever the marketing promises. What both hosts agreed on is that the more durable asset is compute capacity: Starlink’s parent currently leases out some of that capacity, with the option to use more of it for its own future needs, not unlike how Amazon Web Services has become a larger and more important piece of Amazon’s business than its original retail operation. The team also used Walmart’s earnings reaction as a pulse check on the broader consumer. Despite what management called one of its healthiest quarters, the stock dropped roughly 10% the day of the release — driven largely by new government pricing rules on pharmaceuticals that took effect in the second quarter, layered on top of a business that’s now roughly half grocery. Because the market had to digest several moving pieces at once, short-term traders reacted to the complexity rather than the underlying strength Walmart itself described on the call. On the broader consumer picture, Mike Johnson noted wage growth is positive for the first time in a while, and inflation and affordability on goods have ticked slightly better — partly offset by a 20–30% rise in gas prices over the past month. The team also flagged a rollback of tariffs on beef imports from South American trading partners, aimed at easing supply after herd sizes shrank in recent years — welcome relief on one grocery bill line item, even as lower-income households continue to feel the most pressure on housing, auto, insurance, and everyday food costs. Tom also used part of the hour to deliver a message he called maybe the most important thing he’d say all year: it’s not how much your portfolio earns on average — it’s when the losses happen. “Here’s something most people approaching retirement have never heard, and it could be the most important thing I say. It’s not how much your portfolio earns, it’s when it loses.” If your retirement account drops 10% in year one and you’re already pulling money out to live on, you’re drawing from a smaller pool going forward. Do it again in year two, and — as Tom put it — “you may never recover. Even if the market bounces back, the damage is already done.” Wall Street tends to talk in long-term averages, but as Tom noted, “averages don’t pay your electric bill in a down market.” That’s the whole case for building retirement income around dividends rather than around hoping the market cooperates on your withdrawal schedule. FINRA’s own guidance on managing a retirement portfolio makes the same point: your time horizon shrinks once withdrawals begin, so reassessing how much investment risk you’re carrying — and where your income is actually coming from — matters more with each passing year of retirement. Topics Covered The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.3%+ this week, its highest level since 2007 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded bond buyback program and what “asymmetric information” means for markets Why the Treasury is repurchasing old, low-coupon “off-the-run” bonds instead of holding them like the Fed does Sequence of returns risk: why the timing of a loss matters more than your portfolio’s long-term average return Ed Yardeni’s “K-shaped economy” evolving into a “G-shaped economy” — and what that means for stock picking Coca-Cola’s all-time high vs. Walmart’s post-earnings stock drop, and what each says about the consumer Adding to a commercial real estate mortgage REIT position on a pullback — the research behind the decision [COMPLIANCE REVIEW: episode cites a specific dividend yield figure for a named DFG portfolio holding] Verizon, satellite phone service, and questions about whether Starlink can really replace cell towers Wage growth, tariff-driven beef price relief, and the uneven affordability picture for lower-income consumers Key Takeaways Timing beats averages once you’re retired and withdrawing income. A 10% drop in year one of retirement, combined with withdrawals, shrinks the pool you have left to recover with. Tom’s point: “averages don’t pay your electric bill in a down market.” The Treasury’s bond buyback is a Band-Aid, not a fix. Doubling the buyback to $4 billion per operation sounds significant, but against roughly $40 trillion in outstanding debt, it’s a small lever. It briefly pushed yields down, but the market has largely looked through it. A steepening yield curve isn’t automatically a warning sign. The curve normalized after years of inversion — but it’s steepening because the long end is rising, not because short rates are falling, which is a distinction worth understanding rather than reacting to. Fundamental research pays off when a market broadens out. With mega-cap “Mag Seven” performance uneven this year, previously out-of-favor companies and sectors — Ed Yardeni’s “forgotten” names — are earning higher multiples on real earnings growth, not hype. Pullbacks driven by loan-loss accounting, not fundamentals, can be buying opportunities. DFG added to a commercial real estate mortgage REIT position after a stock drop tied to conservative loss reserves — a decision built on management’s track record, not on trying to time a bounce. The consumer picture is genuinely mixed. Wage growth is up for the first time in a while, and tariff relief on beef imports is easing some grocery costs — but affordability on housing, insurance, and everyday goods remains a real strain for lower-income households. Frequently Asked Questions What is sequence of returns risk, and why does it matter for retirees? Sequence of returns risk is the danger that market losses early in retirement — combined with ongoing withdrawals — can permanently shrink a portfolio, even if long-term average returns look fine. A downturn in year one or two, while you’re pulling income out, leaves less money available to participate in any later recovery. Why did the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007? The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.3% in August 2026, its highest level since 2007, driven by heavy government borrowing, persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, and continued Treasury debt issuance. It marks a shift after years of historically low long-term rates following the 2008 financial crisis. What is the Treasury doing about rising long-term bond yields? In August 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double its bond buyback program, from a $2 billion to a $4 billion per-operation ceiling starting September 9. The program repurchases older, low-coupon bonds and reissues shorter-term debt to help ease pressure in the long-bond market. What is a “K-shaped” or “G-shaped” economy? Economist Ed Yardeni’s “K-shaped economy” describes an economy where some sectors and income groups do well while others fall behind. He now calls it a “G-shaped economy” as earnings growth broadens into previously overlooked sectors, showing up in stock performance beyond the small group of mega-cap tech names. How does Dupree Financial Group approach investing during periods of market volatility? Dupree Financial Group focuses on in-house research into dividend-paying stocks and bonds that generate visible income, rather than reacting to short-term headlines. The firm looks for quality companies temporarily out of favor for fixable reasons, aiming to build retirement income that doesn’t depend on guessing short-term market direction. About The Tom Dupree Show The Tom Dupree Show is hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group and a 47-year veteran of the investment business. Each episode covers the financial topics that matter most to retirees and those approaching retirement — in plain English, without the Wall Street spin. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. The firm manages separately managed accounts focused on income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios — no products sold, no commissions, no conflicts of interest. Past episodes are available at dupreefinancial.com under the Radio tab. Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure how a rising-yield environment or a rough sequence of returns could affect your specific retirement income plan, that’s exactly what we sit down and work through. There’s no cost and no pressure — just a clear look at what you own and why. Call: 859-233-0400 | Visit: dupreefinancial.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only registered investment advisor. Investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Dupree Financial Group  ·  Fee-only. Fiduciary. Lexington, KY  · dupreefinancial.com  ·  859-233-0400 This document is for reference and internal use. Not for public distribution. The post 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2007 High: What Retirees Should Know appeared first on Dupree Financial.

Treasury debt buybacks helped push bond yields lower and stocks higher, but the market's technical setup still warrants caution. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains on a sell signal, while the S&P 500 is nearing a momentum sell signal with downside risk toward its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, volatility remains extremely compressed, investor complacency is elevated, and cheap portfolio hedges could become increasingly valuable. With thin August trading and mid-term election uncertainty ahead, investors should manage exposure and prepare for a potential pickup in volatility before the stronger year-end seasonal period. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: hhttps://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing

Mortgage rates and inflation data are both in play today as the Treasury steps into the bond market to prop up prices. Dan Frio breaks down why bond buybacks matter for mortgage rates, what today's jobs report means, and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next in 27 days.In this episode:• Why the Treasury stepped in yesterday to buy back bonds and prop up prices • What happens to mortgage rates when bond supply floods the market (the 2008 comparison) • $5.2 trillion in Treasury debt issued this year, and why that matters for your rate • Today's jobs report and Philly Fed manufacturing numbers, explained • The odds the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at the next meeting • What homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors should watch nextRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS 0:00 Treasury Steps Into the Bond Market 2:00 Why Too Many Bonds Push Mortgage Rates Up 4:00 Jobs Report and Manufacturing Numbers 6:00 Federal Reserve Rate Odds for the Next Meeting 8:00 What to Watch Next for Your Mortgage Rate

Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July with declines in every region, the lowest level since January. I break down what that means for mortgage rates, oil prices, and the Fed heading into today's FOMC minutes.In today's episode I cover:

Mortgage rates are moving today as the 30 year Treasury hits a 19 year high, oil prices climb, and new jobs and housing data shift the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.In this episode of The Rate Update, Dan Frio breaks down:Why the 30 year Treasury yield just hit a 19 year high and why that number is not your mortgage rateThe real bond that drives mortgage pricing and how to read itWhy oil prices are the single biggest driver of inflation and mortgage rates right nowHow tariffs, government spending, and a Supreme Court ruling are adding pressure to ratesToday's jobs report, building permits, housing starts, and import and export pricesWhat the Federal Reserve is watching ahead of its next meetingWhat Dan is telling his own clients to do right now if they are buying, building, or already own a homeReady to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approvedhttps://257781.my1003app.com/246527/registerWant to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultationhttps://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05Have Questions? Contact / Ask Danhttps://www.therateupdate.com/contactRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS0:00 30 Year Treasury Hits a 19 Year High1:35 Why Rates Are High: Oil, Tariffs & Government Spending3:20 How Oil Drives Inflation & the Fed's Next Move5:10 Today's Data: Jobs, Housing Starts & Import Prices7:20 What Buyers, Builders & Homeowners Should Do NowTOP RESOURCESTrack Mortgage Rates Automaticallyhttps://rw2.therateupdate.com/TRU Mortgage Command Centerhttps://command.therateupdate.com/TRU Debt Optimizerhttps://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/Mortgage Calculators & Toolshttps://stan.store/TRU-FoundationsFOLLOW THE RATE UPDATEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrioInstagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdateTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdateDISCLAIMERDan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender.This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #Homebuyers #Refinance

Is the housing market crashing? Mortgage rates, home prices in Austin, Memphis, Tampa, San Francisco, and San Antonio, plus this week's CPI, jobs report, and Federal Reserve outlook, all explained.The headlines say the housing market is crashing. So today I'm putting that to the test with the real numbers. Nationally, home listing prices are down 2.4%, but median home prices are actually up 3.2%. I break down which markets are falling the hardest (Austin, Memphis, Tampa, San Francisco, San Antonio) and which ones are still climbing (Providence, Indianapolis, Hartford, Virginia Beach, Chicago), then explain how the mortgage bond market, this week's CPI report, and the jobs numbers are shaping where mortgage rates go next.If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the crash, this is the video where I tell you exactly what to check before you make that call: your credit score, your down payment options, and what mortgage payment you actually qualify for.For more market breakdowns and data, check out the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

Mortgage rates are moving after a big week of data. In this video I break down the new PPI inflation report, CPI, jobless claims, oil prices, and what it all means for your mortgage rate, plus what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its next meeting.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates go from here, this is exactly what I do every day for my own clients.

CPI came in right on point today, cooling core inflation to 2.5% year over year. Here's what today's inflation report means for mortgage rates, homebuyers, refinance timing, and where rates could head by the end of the day.

Mortgage rates are in play today after a fresh jobless claims report moved the bond market. I break down what the Federal Reserve is watching, why continuing claims climbing back to 1.8 million matters for your rate, and what oil prices and the Iran ceasefire could mean if it breaks. If you are a homeowner or buyer trying to figure out where rates go next, this is the video for you.CHAPTERS 0:00 Breaking Jobs Report and What It Means for Mortgage Rates 1:45 The Federal Reserve and the Bond Market Explained 3:15 Jobless Claims Hit 1.8 Million 5:00 Oil Prices, the Iran Ceasefire, and Rate Risk 7:00 Fed Meeting Odds and My Mortgage Rate ForecastRead the full breakdown on today's numbers: https://therateupdate.com/blog

Mortgage rates are holding steady today even after a rough ADP jobs report showed only 44,000 private payroll jobs created, well below the 100,000 needed to keep the labor market on track. At the same time, stocks are soaring toward record highs, oil markets are reacting to another tanker strike tied to the Iran conflict, and the bond market is absorbing a massive wave of Treasury, corporate, and mortgage debt. In today's episode I break down why mortgage rates aren't moving despite all this noise, what the MBS (mortgage bond) market is telling us, and what the Federal Reserve is watching heading into their next meeting.CHAPTERS 0:00 Breaking News: Jobs Report Miss and Oil Tanker Strike 1:40 Only 44,000 Jobs Created, What It Means For Your Rate 3:20 Bond Market Explained: Treasuries, Corporate Debt and MBS 6:00 Stocks Soar, Oil Tanker Struck, Why Rates Aren't Moving 8:45 Fed Rate Cut Odds, Iran War Impact and What To Watch NextRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/the-daily-rate-update-august-5-2026-stocks-soar-but-rates-get-better

Could rising Treasury yields trigger the next major market downturn? In this exclusive interview, Jesse Felder, founder of The Felder Report, explains why he believes the 10-Year Treasury yield is the most important chart in the world—and why it could derail the AI boom, pressure stocks, and expose deeper problems in the global economy. Felder argues that investors are underestimating the risks building in the bond market, warns a slow-motion debt crisis is already underway, and explains why soaring government debt, persistent inflation, and higher interest rates could reshape markets for years to come. He also shares why Warren Buffett's massive Treasury position makes sense today, why momentum investing may be breaking down, where he sees value emerging, and why energy, oil, and commodities could outperform in the years ahead. In this interview: * Why Treasury yields matter more than ever * The biggest risk facing the AI boom * Why Jesse believes a debt crisis has already begun * The Federal Reserve's inflation challenge * What rising bond yields mean for stocks * Warren Buffett's defensive strategy * Gold, oil, and commodity investing * Value investing vs. momentum investing * What every investor should be watching next

Mortgage rates are getting better today as oil drops to $77 a barrel and mortgage bonds trade up 17 ticks. In this video I break down why the Federal Reserve's 58% odds of a rate hike next meeting might not hold, how the Iran conflict is driving oil and inflation, and what this week's jobs data means for your mortgage rate.Read the full breakdown on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/stocks-are-soaring-today-so-why-arent-mortgage-rates-going-up

Mortgage rates, oil prices, and inflation just collided again. In this video I break down today's mortgage rate forecast, why oil crashing is moving inflation and interest rates, and what the Federal Reserve's next meeting could mean for your rate.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out why rates move the way they do, this is the video that connects the dots. I walk through today's mortgage bond market chart, explain exactly how oil prices drive inflation and mortgage rates, and preview the economic data coming out this week that could push rates higher or lower.In this episode I cover: Why oil crashing is good news for mortgage rates and what could reverse it How oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are all connected This week's key economic reports: PMI, JOLTS, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate The Federal Reserve's current rate hike probability heading into the next meeting What I'm personally telling my clients right now about locking or floating their rate For more on how oil prices and inflation are shaping the mortgage market, check out my full breakdown on the blog: How Oil Prices Are Moving Mortgage Rates Right Now at therateupdate.com/blog

Mortgage rates are on the move after 3 Federal Reserve officials voted to hike rates this week, the largest dissent within the Fed since 1970. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed next, this is the update you need to watch.In this episode, I break down exactly why mortgage rates jumped to 6.77% today, why the Federal Reserve is split on hiking rates even as inflation cools, and why oil prices tied to the Iranian conflict are quietly driving Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. I also walk through this week's economic data, next week's calendar, and what I'm personally advising my clients to do right now if they're under contract or thinking about locking in a rate.Here's what I cover:

Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve, inflation, PCE report, oil prices, Iran conflict, Dow Jones, mortgage rate forecast — here's what moved rates today and what the Fed does next.The Fed just came out and the mortgage bond market took a wild ride because of it. Inflation on the PCE report came in better than expected at 3.3%, jobless claims stayed low, and the Dow is nearing 52,000... but the Fed is still showing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. On top of that, the oil war overseas is still raging and could send rates jumping if it escalates. In this video I break down exactly what's driving mortgage rates right now and what I'm telling my own clients to do about it. How to read the mortgage rate chart and what moved rates after the Fed's comments The PCE inflation report and why 3.3% matters Jobless claims, continued claims, and what they signal about the job market Oil prices, the Iran conflict, and how a jump to $120 a barrel could affect your rate Why the Dow is near 52,000 despite the ongoing conflict The Fed's 60% odds of a hike at the next meeting, and what I'm advising clients with a signed contract right now I go deeper on this in my blog post, Is the Fed About to Trigger a Mortgage Rate Shock?: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/is-the-fed-about-to-trigger-a-mortgage-rate-shockChapters:0:00 Intro – Inflation, Oil War & What the Fed Does Next 1:30 The Rate Chart – What Happened After the Fed's Comments 3:15 PCE Inflation Breakdown (3.3% Reading) 5:15 Jobs Data, Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict Risk 7:30 Dow Nears 52,000, Fed's 60% Hike Odds & Locking Your Rate

Mortgage rates are on edge today as oil prices spike and the Federal Reserve meets to decide what happens next with interest rates. I'm breaking down what's driving today's move and what it means for your rate.Today isn't a normal day. Iran struck another ship, oil jumped 6%, and the Federal Reserve is meeting this afternoon to figure out where the federal funds rate goes from here. I walk through the bond market, the inflation data, the jobs numbers, and exactly what I'm telling my own clients to do right now if they're under contract, sitting on the sidelines, or thinking about refinancing.In this video I cover: • Why oil prices jumping 6% in one day is hitting the mortgage bond market • What the Federal Reserve actually controls and how it ripples into your rate • The real CPI, PPI, and jobs numbers the Fed is watching this week • Why inflation is dropping when you strip out oil and energy • What I'm advising clients to do today: lock, wait, or holdRead the full breakdown on my blog: Fed Rate Call During a Global Crisis: Mortgage Rate Snapshot Today — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/fed-rate-call-global-crisis-mortgage-rate-snapshot-todayAnd for more on where rates could head next: CPI Drops, Jobs Cool: Is a Fed Rate Cut Finally Coming? — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/cpi-drops-jobs-cool-is-a-fed-rate-cut-finally-comingCHAPTERS 0:00 Oil spikes, Iran conflict, and today's Fed meeting 1:30 How the Federal Reserve actually controls rates 3:15 CPI, PPI, and the inflation data the Fed is watching 5:45 Jobs numbers and where the cracks are showing 7:30 What I'm telling my clients to do right now

Legal Docket on the Christian convictions Alaska Airlines treated as forbidden, Moneybeat on what the 10-year Treasury reveals about the economy, and the WORLD History Book on the Andrea Doria collision and extraordinary rescue. Plus, the Monday morning news.Support The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donate.Additional support comes from Cedarville University—a Christ-centered, academically rigorous university located in southwest Ohio, equipping students for Gospel impact across every career and calling. Cedarville integrates a biblical worldview into every course in the more than 175 undergraduate and graduate programs students choose from. New online undergraduate degrees through Cedarville Online offer flexible and affordable education grounded in a strong Christian community that fosters both faith and learning. Learn more at cedarville.edu, and explore online programs at cedarville.edu/online.From Equip by Unbound. Enhancing high school with life skills coaching and hands-on projects. More at BeUnbound.us/worldAnd from WORLD Watch, a 10-minute video news broadcast that the whole family can agree on. Free for the first 7 days ... worldwatch.news/podcast

Mortgage rates today: oil prices drop to $84 a barrel, new tariffs hit the market, and the Federal Reserve meets in 2 days. Here's what it means for your mortgage rate, refinance, and home buying plans.

I used AI to rank every major housing market analyst since 2022 — who called the housing crash right, who got mortgage rate forecasts wrong, and where real estate is really headed in 2026. See how Logan from HousingWire, Realtor.com, and Zillow scored versus analysts still predicting a crash worse than 2008.Every day someone tells you exactly where mortgage rates and home prices are headed — but almost none of them go back and check if they were right. So I did. I ran the top housing market analysts and real estate YouTubers through AI, backdated the data to 2022, and scored who actually predicted housing correctly versus who's been calling for a housing crash worse than 2008 for four years straight.In this video I break down: The top-ranked housing market analysts since 2022 (HousingWire, Realtor.com, Zillow) The real estate influencers with the worst forecasting track record on mortgage rates and home prices Why "housing crash worse than 2008" predictions have failed for years Where my own mortgage rate and housing forecasts ranked What this means for homebuyers and homeowners deciding whether to buy, sell, or refinance in 2026

The yield on a 30-year Treasury bond has been hovering above 5% for a couple weeks — the longest stretch since the Great Recession. One reason is Treasury bonds are competing with Big Tech debt. We'll explain, with help from one reporter's shady gym membership deal. Also in this episode: AT&T attributes strong earnings to service bundles, a customs broker updates us on shipping logistics amid tariff changes, and Kai explains why Fed economists want to keep inflation expectations "anchored."Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:30-year Treasury yields stick above 5%China's consumer economy is losing steamAT&T's service bundles make for an earnings boonInside the "tariff whirlpool" with a brokerage managerWhat “anchored inflation expectations” mean for the Fed

The yield on a 30-year Treasury bond has been hovering above 5% for a couple weeks — the longest stretch since the Great Recession. One reason is Treasury bonds are competing with Big Tech debt. We'll explain, with help from one reporter's shady gym membership deal. Also in this episode: AT&T attributes strong earnings to service bundles, a customs broker updates us on shipping logistics amid tariff changes, and Kai explains why Fed economists want to keep inflation expectations "anchored."Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:30-year Treasury yields stick above 5%China's consumer economy is losing steamAT&T's service bundles make for an earnings boonInside the "tariff whirlpool" with a brokerage managerWhat “anchored inflation expectations” mean for the Fed

Oil hit $120 a barrel during the last Iran conflict. Today it's sitting around $80... during the SAME kind of conflict. That gap is the whole story for where mortgage rates go next, and I break down exactly why in today's video.I also walk through the two things the Federal Reserve actually cares about (inflation and jobs), what last week's data really showed, and why I'm telling you there's basically a 100% chance the Fed does nothing at next week's meeting. Then I get into what I'm personally telling my clients to do right now if you're under contract, or if you're planning to buy later this year.Stick around to the end, I show you the exact tools I use every single day to track this stuff myself, and how you can use them too.

On this episode, we are joined by Mike Tosaw of St. Charles Wealth Management to analyze the biggest futures options stories from around the globe.  In this episode: The week's biggest Movers & Shakers across metals, energy, agriculture and equity indexes Is silver finally becoming a buying opportunity after its sharp selloff? Gold, wheat, crude oil and the commodity contracts making the biggest moves Mike's outlook on the S&P 500 and whether equities are building a base for another breakout Why interest rates and the 10-Year Treasury could become the dominant market story in the months ahead A deep dive into the massive options activity in Treasury futures Bitcoin and Ether futures options, including Mike's surprisingly bullish Bitcoin options strategy despite his long-held skepticism toward crypto The hottest futures options trades, unusual activity and volatility trends from CME Group

On this episode, we are joined by Mike Tosaw of St. Charles Wealth Management to analyze the biggest futures options stories from around the globe.  In this episode: The week's biggest Movers & Shakers across metals, energy, agriculture and equity indexes Is silver finally becoming a buying opportunity after its sharp selloff? Gold, wheat, crude oil and the commodity contracts making the biggest moves Mike's outlook on the S&P 500 and whether equities are building a base for another breakout Why interest rates and the 10-Year Treasury could become the dominant market story in the months ahead A deep dive into the massive options activity in Treasury futures Bitcoin and Ether futures options, including Mike's surprisingly bullish Bitcoin options strategy despite his long-held skepticism toward crypto The hottest futures options trades, unusual activity and volatility trends from CME Group

Mortgage rates, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate expectations all came together this week. Consumer inflation (CPI) and producer inflation (PPI) both came in negative, yet markets are still pricing in a possible Fed rate hike — Dan breaks down why the numbers and the Fed's next move don't seem to line up, what's coming next week before the Fed meeting, how oil prices tie into mortgage rates, and why he thinks rates could test their lows again soon.00:00 Intro: Why the Fed hike talk doesn't add up 01:35 This week's inflation and jobs data 03:45 What's coming next week before the Fed meets 05:45 Fed rate hike odds and closing outlook

Wall Street just got a lot more bullish. A major market forecast has pushed its target for the S&P 500 all the way to 7,800, implying significant upside from current levels. But is this a realistic projection based on earnings, AI growth, and economic strength... or are analysts simply getting caught up in market euphoria? In today's episode, we break down the reasoning behind the upgraded target and ask the question every investor should be asking: Can the S&P 500 really reach 7,800, or is Wall Street getting ahead of itself? We'll discuss: What's driving the bullish forecasts The role of AI and technology in earnings growth Whether valuations still make sense Historical examples of analyst optimism and pessimism Key risks that could derail the rally We'll also take a look at a viewer's trade in Cerebras Systems, breaking down the setup, risks, and opportunities surrounding one of the more intriguing names in the AI space. In addition, we'll dive into two critical market indicators that many investors ignore: The 10-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Because these two markets often provide valuable clues about: Interest rates Inflation expectations Capital flows Future equity performance And of course, I'll provide updates on my current trades, portfolio positioning, and what I'm watching as markets continue to push higher. This episode is all about separating optimism from reality. Listen now:

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.   SpaceX implied volatility in its options Kevin Warsh FED press conference Kevin Warsh says no dot for you! LEI leading economic indicator MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC Difference between a peg to par vs. trying to see it at par Word count in FED statement Warsh vs Powell 10 Year Treasury yields vs Nominal GDP growth rate YoY Oil prices continue to ease Analysts keep their earnings estimates strong for the forward 12 month period   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Treasury yields are edging higher as U.S.-Iran military exchanges rattle markets and inflation expectations climb, creating a challenging environment for fixed income investors. We decode what's driving yield movement right now and whether bond investors should be repositioning for a higher-for-longer world.Today's Stocks & Topics: Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC), Market Wrap, Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC), Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI), Is the 10-Year Treasury Yield About to Break Out? What Rising Rates Mean for Bonds and Borrowing, Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA), Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI), The IPO Market, Dividend Reinvestment, Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VO). Our Next Wealth Webinar: “Beyond the Yield: How to Invest for Your Income Needs” June 30th, 2026 - 12:00 pmTo sign up: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/5717793889555/WN_XuoDgMVwSv6wZXXurrZTLgOur Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out Scribe and use my code scribe.how/invest for a great deal: https://scribe.com* Check out TaskRabbit and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://taskrabbit.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands