Podcasts about year treasury

Leyla Kunimoto brings a rare and unfiltered perspective to today's commercial real estate conversation: that of a full-time individual LP who writes publicly about her investment decisions. She's not a sponsor, a capital raiser, or a fund manager; she's an investor allocating her own capital and speaking candidly about what she sees in the market.   Through her newsletter Accredited Investor Insights, Leyla connects with hundreds of other LPs and GPs, giving her a uniquely well-informed view of how sentiment is shifting, how sponsors are adapting (or not), and why many individual investors, herself included, are taking a more cautious, capital-preserving stance in the current environment.   Track Records Are the New Credentials Leyla made one thing immediately clear in my conversation with her: experience across market cycles matters more than ever. Sponsors who lived through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and made it out intact, view the world differently. “There's a certain level of conservatism they develop,” she said, that translates into more disciplined underwriting, more thoughtful pacing, and fewer emotionally driven decisions.   This stands in sharp contrast to what Leyla observed in 2020, when billboards at Dallas airports advertised real estate masterminds promising to teach people how to raise capital fast. She watched sponsors pile into deals with razor-thin margins, driven more by optimism than fundamentals. Some of those same players are now facing tough questions from investors.   Tariffs Are Already Affecting CRE in Two Big Ways While many LPs focus on interest rates, Leyla highlighted tariffs as a macro driver that's beginning to affect commercial real estate, particularly in development. First, tariffs are raising costs on imported materials, like lumber, pushing construction budgets higher. Second, she's watching what tariffs could mean for demand in the industrial sector.   “If trade with Mexico declines, what happens to logistics facilities near the border?” she asked. Conversely, if reshoring takes off, we may see demand rise for inland warehouse space. It's a nuanced picture and one that sponsors in ground-up deals can't afford to ignore.   Equity Is Cautious. Retail Capital Is Now in Play. Another shift Leyla is tracking is on the capital side. Institutional equity has pulled back in many corners of the market, and some sponsors are turning to retail LPs for the first time. But this isn't an easy pivot.   “Retail investors are expensive to reach,” she said. They also tend to ask more questions – and now, they're more skeptical. Many LPs are sitting on deals that aren't performing. As a result, the bar for new allocations is much higher. “There's a sense of caution,” she noted. “LPs aren't allocating blindly anymore.”   Floating Rate Debt Divides the Market Leyla sees a bifurcated sponsor landscape: those who are still dealing with the aftermath of floating-rate debt, and those who have the capital and flexibility to transact but can't find deals that pencil.   Sponsors with legacy floating-rate loans are focused on rate caps and marginal cash flow. They're rooting for the Fed to cut rates. Others are hunting for acquisitions, but the math isn't working. “Without aggressive assumptions, most deals don't pencil,” she said.   The IRR Illusion: What LPs Should Actually Be Watching Many sponsors still lead with IRR projections, but Leyla has shifted her mindset. “I don't screen for how much money I'm going to make. I don't screen for the IRR probability,” she told me, “the only thing I'm laser beam focused on when I evaluate private placement deals is the probability of losing money.”   That loss-aversion lens changes everything. She believes LPs are better off compounding modest, positive returns over time than chasing double-digit IRRs that come with a real chance of loss. “Making 3-4% positive IRR for 10 years straight outperforms hitting 20% on some deals and going to zero on others,” she said.   Stress Tests Are Private. Optimism Is Public. Behind closed doors, sponsors are more conservative than they let on, she says. The real pros run multiple models – best, worst, and most likely scenarios. “I always ask for stress test scenarios underwritten to the GFC,” she says, continuing that she used to hear sponsors saying such scenarios were never going to play out because the underwriting is too stringent. “I'm hearing a little bit less of that now,” she says.   Still, she's skeptical of any deck that doesn't acknowledge the possibility of a rent decline. Of course deals won't pencil if you underwrite to a 10% rent drop but, in some markets, that's exactly what's happening.   Cash Is a Position. Waiting Is a Strategy. When I asked what she'd do if handed a $1 million windfall today, Leyla didn't hesitate: “I'd keep it in cash and I would try to get very narrow on what my buy box is,” not because she's fearful but because she wants to be surgical when she deploys.   She encourages LPs to be patient and wait for opportunities that fit tight criteria. In an environment where you can make 4.5%+ tax and risk-free, “there's no harm in waiting,” she says. She also shared stories of seasoned sponsors that sold early, sat in cash through the entire 2021 run-up, and are still waiting because they can't find deals that pencil – that are still too expensive for prudent investors.   What Leyla's Watching Now Leyla doesn't try to predict markets. But she does monitor signals: The 10-Year Treasury yield Local supply pipelines Investor sentiment from her network of LPs And her biggest piece of advice? Focus on not losing money. That alone will make you a better investor.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

How much credit risk is in the market? Equities get the headlines but the world runs on credit. Jamie Dimon recently declared that credit was a “bad risk” on the heels of Moody’s downgrading the U.S. credit rating and a spike in the 10 Year Treasury yield. Suddenly, the boring old credit and bond markets are all the rage on the financial news channels, and it goes much deeper than treasuries. Today’s episode examines the scope of the global credit market and unpacks the difference between the systemic threat posed in the global financial crisis (GFC) and the looming credit crisis today. And, it shows how the big corporations prepared for the gathering storm by rewriting the rules of the game after the GFC. The big guys are fairly insulated from any sort of looming credit shock, but the rest of us are pretty much toast. Access the episode resources. Chapters Intro: 00:01:00 Post Show Musings: 00:28:25 Outro: 00:33:39 Resources Moody’s: Moody’s Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Household Debt and Credit Report Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates Coleman Report: Small Business Loan Defaults Expected to Peak Next Year Offshoring Lincoln International LLC: Q1 2025 Lincoln Private Market Index™ Investopedia: Payment-in-Kind (PIK): What It Is, How It Works, Pros and Cons Axios: Americans are behind on car payments at a record level MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025 HBR: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.: Municipal Bonds: Back in the Spotlight U.S. Department of the Treasury: Treasury International Capital Data for March Everything Policy: Where are the key Panama Papers figures, seven years later? Secondaries Investor: Yale sells up to $6bn of its PE portfolio amid federal funding challenge NBER: The Offshore World According to FATCA: New Evidence on the Foreign Wealth of U.S. Peter Lang Publishing: Hip Hop Can Save America! UNFTR Episode Resources The U.S. Dollar and 10 Year Treasury. Updated Tax Evasion Figures. Video: Credit Risk: The looming U.S. Credit Crisis UNFTR 5 Non-Negotiables -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Moody's downgraded the US credit rating for the first time in history. This is the last of the 3 major credit agencies to downgrade the US credit rating. The primary... The post Moody’s Downgrades US Credit Rating, 30-Year Treasury Hits 5% (How to Increase Your Retirement Income Guaranteed) | Your Personal Bank Show | 05-27-25 appeared first on WWDB-AM.

Moody's downgraded the US credit rating for the first time in history. This is the last of the 3 major credit agencies to downgrade the US credit rating. The primary concern is the increasing level of government debt.   As a result, the 30-year treasury bond yields rose to 5%. This is the highest level since 2007. Bond buyers will demand higher interest (yield) to purchase government bands due to the increased risk. Bond yields and higher borrowing costs will be higher until the government addresses fiscal responsibility.   Higher bond yields are one of the greatest threats to stock market asset values. Many large institutional investors shift their investments from the stock market to the bond market to lock in long term cash flow. 30-year treasury yields at 5% are a common benchmark for institutional investors to shift.    The 4% withdrawal rule is widely recommended to ensure you don't run out of money in retirement with a high likelihood of success. If you increase your withdrawal rate to 5%, your likelihood of success decreases significantly.   Current Guaranteed Lifetime Income withdrawal rates:    - Age 65: 7.5% guaranteed for life    - Age 75: 8.5% guaranteed for life    - Rates increase as you are older   You can increase your income significantly with 100% likelihood of success. You cannot outlive your income.   Higher bond yields increase fixed asset returns. Insurance dividends, annuity, and guaranteed lifetime income returns are expected to increase for the next 5-10 years.       This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.      - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years!      - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.      - Guaranteed Lifetime Income is the highest in 40+ years. Some products offer up to 30% signing bonus. Other products offer up to 10% increased guaranteed lifetime income each year you defer.  

Derek Moore talks about seeing stories of exploding 30-year yields but what if they are low compared to historical relationships between the fed funds rate? Then, looking at how correlated the 60/40 portfolio has been over the last 5 years begging the question, did it do anything for investors? Later, looking at NVidia implied volatility ahead of its big earnings release this week to see what the options market is pricing in for a potential one standard deviation move? All this and more this week.     S&P 500 Index net profit margins expected next 12 months The US Dollar index breaks below its trendline Nvidia earnings and the options market Forecasting expected 1-standard deviation moves using implied volatility Correlations between the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio last 5 years Historical average of the spread between the 30 Year Treasury and the Fed Funds Rate Should the 30-year treasury yield be higher? Japan bond yields normalize reaching highest levels going back to 2007       Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com           

Episode 4503: 20 Year Treasury Bond Auction Debacle

Kevin Green says there's "reason to sell" following last week's strong market action and recent V-shaped recovery. He notes there's a "very big wall" at the 6,000 level in the SPX, but says there can be further downside before then. Kevin later turns to the 30YR-10YR treasury spread to explain its recent spike.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Unlocking Private Market Potential: Key Insights from Jim Dowd of North Capital   Jim Dowd, CEO of North Capital, brings four decades of experience across the sell-side and buy-side to my discussion with him on a topic top of mind for commercial real estate sponsors and investors: how to navigate a rapidly shifting capital landscape where regulation, liquidity, investor behavior, and macro volatility collide.   Here are the key insights from our conversation – designed specifically to you make better, more informed investment decisions in today's market.   1. Private Markets Are Growing — But Liquidity is the Blind Spot Jim sees a long-term, secular shift from public to private markets. This trend has been driven by: Rising regulatory costs of public capital raises Falling costs and barriers to entry in private placements Broader investor access due to reduced minimums (from $250K+ to $10K–$20K) But here's the warning: private securities still lack liquidity. Investors participating in these syndicated deals should recognize that they are locked in, sometimes for years, with no clear exit.   “It's like three guys trying to run through a door at the same time – when everyone wants out, they can't.”   Solution: Jim's firm has built an Alternative Trading System (ATS) to create secondary markets for private securities, a concept CRE sponsors might want to look at. While not yet equivalent to public exchanges, these platforms offer an emerging way to address investor liquidity concerns and could give forward-thinking sponsors a competitive edge.   2. Don't Be Fooled by the Illusion of Diversification Many sponsors pitch private equity real estate as an uncorrelated asset class, perfect for diversifying out of stocks and bonds. Dowd challenges this narrative.   “In a crisis, all risk assets tend to correlate. The illusion of diversification is mostly due to slow re-pricing in private markets.”   Takeaway: Sponsors should be transparent with LPs. While real estate is a solid long-term asset, it's not immune to systemic shocks. Treating it as a diversification tool must come with proper liquidity and risk disclosures.   3. Risk Has Moved From Banks to Private Markets Jim argues that the risk which once destabilized the banking sector during the GFC has now migrated to private markets. The positive spin: these markets are mostly backed by equity, not federally insured deposits, reducing systemic risk.   Investors (LPs) should understand that the margin for error in private real estate has shrunk. Mispricing risk in this environment is more likely to catch up with you, especially in a rising rate context.   4. The 10-Year Treasury: The Most Important Metric in CRE Jim highlights the 10-year Treasury yield as the single most important signal CRE sponsors should track.   Why?   “A 6% cap rate in a 2% Treasury environment is fundamentally different than the same cap rate in a 4.5% Treasury world. That delta blows up every underwriting model.”   Cap rate spreads are compressing. And yet, many sponsors haven't recalibrated assumptions.   Jim's advice: treat macro indicators like interest rates and liquidity conditions as core components of your investment thesis, not just afterthoughts.   5. Investor Behavior Has Changed: Active Risk is Now in Private Markets Jim sees a structural shift in how investors approach risk: Liquid portfolios (ETFs, mutual funds) are increasingly passive and macro-driven. Private investments, including real estate, are now where most investors take active risk. For sponsors, this has profound implications: Investor trust and manager selection matter more than ever. Sponsors must demonstrate operational excellence and a clear, differentiated strategy. Geographic proximity still matters. Many large managers raise capital locally. Relationships built within a 100-mile radius still drive much of the private capital flow. 6. On Crypto and Tokenization: Don't Confuse the Two North Capital does not allocate to crypto but Jim is bullish on blockchain infrastructure for private markets, especially tokenization.   “Blockchain could enable scalable, transparent, and low-cost transactions for private securities – if regulators allow it.”   Tokenization may hold long-term promise for CRE sponsors looking to expand liquidity, access global investors, and reduce friction. But the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are still evolving.   7. Investor Advice: Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market Jim's advice to investors (including his own son) is simple: don't try to time the market. Instead: Keep short-term money in treasuries or cash equivalents Deploy long-term capital systematically over a 3–12 month window Accept volatility as the price of long-term outperformance For sponsors, this means messaging matters. Emphasize long-term fundamentals over short-term fear. Help investors contextualize volatility and maintain confidence in your strategy. 8. Watch for These Signals: What Could Change the Outlook Jim tracks two key macro indicators to signal inflection points: The 10-Year Treasury yield (as mentioned above) Capital flows in public markets – a pullback here could foreshadow slower fundraising in private markets. Beyond markets, two external shocks could force sponsors to reevaluate assumptions: A geopolitical crisis (India–Pakistan tensions, Middle East escalation, Ukraine/Russia fallout) A surprise inflation spike, particularly driven by tariffs, energy, or trade policy shocks Investors need to ask: “Can my portfolio withstand a 30–40% drawdown without breaking my long term plans?”  If the answer is no, you have too much exposure to risk and should dial back.   Final Takeaway for CRE Sponsors Jim Dowd's insights are a timely reminder that capital formation in private real estate markets is entering a new phase – defined by rising macro uncertainty, evolving liquidity expectations, and heightened investor scrutiny.   Sponsors who embrace transparency, align offerings with institutional risk frameworks, and prepare for greater regulatory and market sophistication will be best positioned to lead, and raise, in this new environment.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger.

The traditional correlations between some asset classes went haywire in April. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur discuss whether, in this environment, investors still consider U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar to be reliable ports in a storm. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist.Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Serena Tang: Today's topic, how investors' perceptions of safe havens are evolving, the impact on correlation between asset classes, and what all this means for your portfolio.It's Wednesday, May 7th at 10am in New York.April was a really challenging month, and some market moves were highly unusual. There was also a lot of investor concern whether U.S. Treasuries would continue to be a safe haven. In fact, this became one of the biggest market debates over the last few weeks.Vishy, let's start here. Prior to this recent sell off, foreign investors looked at U.S. assets as a safe haven. Why is that? And is it still the case now after this turbulent month?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, if you just step back and look at it, U.S. enjoyed positive growth differentials and positive yield differentials with developed markets in the rest of the world. On top of that, there was a consistent policy – not necessarily infallible policy – but there's a consistent policy with a clear sense of demarcation between the executive and the central bank.All of this meant U.S. was a very attractive destination for foreign investor flows. Not only during periods of normalcy where U.S. equities really attracted inflows and performed really well, but also during the periods of economic stress; where even periods where the stress was coming from the U.S. itself, such as the Global Financial Crisis. This correlation between bonds and stocks held and U.S. Treasuries were the safe haven asset as the single largest and most liquid, and highly negatively correlated asset with risk assets. So that really worked.What we are now seeing is that growth differential I talked about may no longer be holding. You know, for these [20]25 and [20]26 U.S. and euro area growth basically will converge – and if our economists' expectations are right, in 2026, euro area will be growing at a faster pace than the U.S.So, growth differential argument is fading. And there are some questions about the continued Fed independence. So put all these things together. Some investors are beginning to question whether U.S. assets will continue to be safe haven assets.So let me come back to you Serena. There've been some recent market moves that have been extremely unusual. That's what created all this debate. In some of – a few days in April, during the periods of sell off, we had both stocks and bonds selling off. And it felt like cross-asset correlations have gone totally haywire.So, can you talk a little bit about which correlations have changed? Which correlations have held up in these sell off?Serena Tang: What was highly unusual, and I think reflects part of the debate on U.S. as a safe haven, is the correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar. It is very high at the moment, about sort of two standard deviation above the five-year average. While it's not unheard of for FX stocks correlation to be high, it is usually more associated with EM or emerging markets rather than DM or developed markets. As a means, investors now require higher risk premium for holding the equities, which is a risk asset; but also holding the dollar, which again, traditionally is not thought of as a risk asset.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, how did the correlation between bonds and stocks hold up in this period?Serena Tang: Surprisingly, the correlation have really, really held up. Stocks and bond return correlation turned very negative during the sell off that we saw, which means that equity losses were actually offset by bond returns. Now, this isn't entirely true across the curve. You saw 2 Year Treasuries being a much effective diversifier than say the 30 Year Treasury. But all in all, I think it means bonds still work as a diversifier.Now on this point Vishy, how do you think policy will impact asset correlations we've been talking about, as well as the perception of U.S. assets as a safe haven.Vishy Tirupattur: So, as I said before, positive growth differentials fade, and we have negative growth differential. And if there are continued questions about the Fed's independence, so some of the attraction of U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven asset, will be challenged. But that challenge hits the practical reality of the size and the scale of the safe haven assets.So, if you look around, if you add the comparably rated European government bond market and compare that to the U.S. government bond market, the U.S. market is about 10 times as larger. So, more scale, more liquidity, and the ability to deploy capital during the periods of stress is clearly more in the U.S.So, this is what I would say. The status of U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as the global safe haven asset have taken a bit of a ding, but not gone away.Serena Tang: Vishy, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Great speaking with you, Serena, as always.Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, Phil Treadwell welcomes Rob Pieklo, President and CEO of AFR. Together, they dive into how mortgage professionals can better educate and guide their clients. Rob and Phil explore the impact of UMBS and the 10-Year Treasury, and discuss the limitations of market forecasting. Rob emphasizes clear communication, honesty, and recognizing early market shifts as tools for building client trust. It's a valuable listen for those looking to enhance both their market knowledge and their client approach. Robert Pieklo, President and CEO of AFR, brings a wealth of experience and leadership to the role, having previously overseen lending, revenue, capital markets, and strategy at the company. During his time away, he successfully ran his own brokerage, gaining hands-on insight into the industry. Rob's extensive knowledge across broker, correspondent, and retail channels uniquely positions him to drive AFR's next phase of growth. A respected industry leader, he remains actively engaged with numerous trade associations, reinforcing his commitment to advancing the mortgage space. 02:20 Be the Expert 06:15 The World of UMBS 11:00 The Ten Year Treasury 13:50 A Broken Crystal Ball 17:15 Lock It In 19:40 Pay Attention to the Whispers 22:50 Transparency is Key 27:10 The Truth is Easier Than a Lie 31:10 Less Talking, More Mistrust 32:35 Take the Good with the Bad 35:30 The Pounds of Results 39:40 Use the Macros to Your Advantage Connect with Rob: Instagram | AFR Website BE IN THE ROOM WHERE GROWTH HAPPENS: M1A Mastermind Group If you are enjoying the MME podcast, please take a second and LEAVE US A REVIEW. And JOIN the M1A Text Community: 214-225-5696

Are there hidden market patterns that signal massive economic change? A weak dollar and rising yield on the ten year treasuries sent Wall Street into panic mode over fears that Trump was torching the global economy with his tariff wars. Since 1945 the U.S. dollar has been the bedrock of the global economy. Trump’s reckless behavior has allies and enemies alike wondering if this is the end of U.S. hegemony in the world. Last week when the dollar and ten year treasury yield briefly split, the global bond market suddenly came into focus and was on everyone’s radar. This episode boils down the jargon to explain what’s going on and why everyone freaked out. Ultimately, while we may not tear down the global order, there’s no question that we won’t restore faith in the U.S. Dollar and economy until Trump is out of office. Access the episode Show Notes. Resources Compound Real Estate Bonds: Bond Vigilantes: Definition, Role & Impact on Markets EWA: The Relationship Between US Dollar Index and US 10 Year Treasury Bond Investopedia: Bonds: Treasury Yields and Interest Rates CNBC: Investors are growing concerned about a U.S. asset exodus as Treasurys and the dollar decline Privalgo: The relationship between bond yields and currencies ScienceDirect: International capital flows and U.S. interest rates St. Louis Fed: Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) St. Louis Fed: Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) Darden Report Online: What the Sell-Off in Treasuries Means for Your Mortgage The Washington Post: Fact Check: Has Trump declared bankruptcy four or six times? -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it's probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP's career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn't the same as betting against the U.S. To check out the graphs referenced - check out the Pensford Newsletter

In this explosive new episode of Money Moves, Matty A and Ryan Breedwell cover everything from a surprise hospitality acquisition to the latest economic indicators that could hint at a major bull run. Did Jeff Bezos just buy Hooters for $800M? What will AI-enhanced flirting even look like?! Meanwhile, markets continue to move sideways as investors wait on key signals from Jerome Powell, and the Fed prepares to make big moves. The duo digs into interest rate expectations, real estate trends, recession rumors, crypto volatility, political shakeups, and how everyday investors can build real wealth through discipline—not dopamine. Key Topics Covered: Jeff Bezos buys Hooters: Rebrand, AI flirting & Prime Wings?! (00:02:00) Jerome Powell's next move: Is the Fed preparing to cut rates? (00:06:00) Rate cuts coming in June? Why the 10-Year Treasury is a key clue (00:07:30) Market chop or setup for a summer breakout? (00:08:30) Why real estate investors should love “boring” markets right now (00:13:00) Multifamily default risk rising—what does this mean for single-family? (00:31:00) Political chaos or financial cleanup? Trump, tariffs, and waste cuts (00:37:00) Gen Z poised to inherit $36 trillion? Real talk on future wealth (00:42:00) Crypto headlines: MicroStrategy burns $1.5B in BTC keys, Solana scores big (00:35:00) Investment advice for long-term wins vs short-term hype (00:12:00) Notable Quotes: “You don't need to be smart to get rich—just consistent.” “Rates aren't high—they're just finally normal.” “Long-term investors rarely lose from short-term volatility.” “You can make money and still sleep well at night.” “Real wealth is built in the boring seasons.” Resources Mentioned: Treasury yield movements & rate cut projections Freddie Mac Delinquency Data: Multifamily vs. Single Family Trump's new economic and immigration policies Solana blockchain's adoption by BlackRock Consumer confidence vs. market performance trends Call to Action: Text 'XRAY' to 844.447.1555 for a free financial portfolio review. Text 'DEALS' to 844.447.1555 for exclusive private investment opportunities. Follow @officialmattya on all platforms. Visit Shop.MillionaireMindcast.com for top financial tools & merch. Episode Sponsored By: Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/ CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join! FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555  

Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now?   What is market fragility? Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing 30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury Why is there a spread above treasuries What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds? Tariffs impact on markets How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US? Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they'll be short lived, so now what?   Mentioned in this Episode   Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it's a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds!

The 10-Year Treasury yield might not sound exciting, but for real estate investors, it's one of the most critical indicators to watch. In this episode of Wise Investor Segment, host Matty A. breaks down what the 10-Year Treasury is, why it matters, and how it directly impacts interest rates, property values, and your ability to build long-term wealth in real estate. Learn how tracking this key metric can help you make smarter investment decisions, time the market, and avoid costly mistakes. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, understanding the 10-Year Treasury could be the game-changer you need. Tune in now to gain the knowledge that could make or break your fortune in real estate! Episode Sponsored By: Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/ MY FIRST 50K!: Visit https://wiseinvestorcollective.com/ and submit your application to join!

Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?    Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers   Mentioned in this Episode   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Mark Matthews, Managing Director & Head of Research Asia, Julius Baer shares his insights on big tech moves, concerns coming on the back of geopolitical uncertainties, US 10-year Treasury bond yields, strength of the US Dollar and where money is flowing. Presented by: Ryan HuangProduced and Edited by: Yeo Kai Ting (ykaiting@sph.com.sg)Photo credits: pixabay & its talented community of contributorsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alasdair Macleod believes that interest rates rising signal an impending collapse of the credit market that will wipe out stocks, bonds, and crypto without prejudice, and when that event occurs, only gold in your hand will provide some salvation. Alasdair hones in on the 10 Year Treasury rate and why it's flashing red, in addition to discussing recent massive deliveries of both gold and silver on the COMEX, why Russia may be headed towards a gold standard, and much more.Macleod Finance: https://alasdairmacleod.substack.comFollow Alasdair on X: https://x.com/MacleodFinanceFollow Jesse Day on X: https://x.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture

Plus: The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note ticks higher. General Mills shares fall after the breakfast-cereal maker scaled back profit expectations. J.R. Whalen reports. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Mag 7 isn't showing yesterday's magnificence as most stocks open to the downside. Kevin Green looks at the correlation and the potential volatility that can spark during the trading day. He also turns to the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond to show how a new trend is taking shape after 27 years. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Cooper Howard talks about the slide up in the 10-Year Treasury yield and weighs if its a seasonal trend, or if it's signaling more inflationary pressure through the latest PPI data. Nathan Peterson adds to the discussion by talking about how the data can impact the Fed's rate cut path. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

For many borrowers, volatility has been more challenging to manage than high interest rates. Next year, stability is likely.  Where will rates be a year from now? What about the 10-Year Treasury? While no one can predict the market, most people don't expect crippling differences in just 12 months. For the last two years, however, volatility has challenged the commercial real estate industry. Next year, Berkadia CEO Justin Wheeler is optimistic that the instability may finally wane, and borrowers may be able to look forward to more reliable market patterns. In this podcast episode, Wheeler sits down with reporter Kelsi Maree Borland to talk about: The firm's 15-year anniversary, and how the market has changed since its inception and how Berkadia has evolved to meet market demands How the Fed's two rate cuts have increased borrower confidence         Expectations for interest rates and the 10-Year Treasury next year

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields

The crew dives deep into the aftermath of the recent election and what it means for real estate, investors, and the broader economy. They break down topics like Trump's surprising win, the possibility of inflation spikes, and the role of media bias in shaping public opinion. Expect lively debates on economic strategies, the implications for the 10-year Treasury, and how Trump's policies could impact tariffs, immigration, and healthcare reform. With AJ Osborne, Mauricio Rauld, and J Scott at the table, this episode offers expert insights for anyone invested in real estate, finance, and the future of the economy.   Chapters 00:00 – Intro and Election Shock: Setting the Stage 03:30 – Trump's Win: Media Narratives and Surprising Election Results 08:20 – Economic Outlook: Inflation, the 10-Year Treasury, and Stock Market Reactions 15:10 – Media Bias and Voter Disconnect: AJ's Data Insights 20:30 – Domestic vs. Global Stability: Is the World in Chaos? 25:40 – The Role of Immigration in Economic Policy 30:25 – Tariffs and Trade Tactics: Will Trump's Approach Work? 37:15 – Healthcare Reform: What We Still Don't Know About Trump's Plans 46:40 – Real Estate Impact: Expected Tax Reforms, Depreciation, and SEC Changes 55:30 – Wrap-Up: Panel Thoughts on the Election's Long-Term Impacts  

Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points last month, the 10-Year Treasury is actually up 50 basis points and mortgage interest rates are increasing as well. Why is this happening? In today's macroeconomic update, Randy breaks down what's happening with interest rates and what it means for real estate investors. Join Our Investor Club: https://rebrand.ly/4zg5yeb

Wall Street technology stocks are under pressure as expectations for Fed rate cuts diminish. Oil prices rise 3% due to increased Middle East war risks, while insurance stocks plunge as Hurricane Milton intensifies to Category 5 near Florida. In China, markets reopen after Golden Week, with iron ore advancing on hopes for further China stimulus. Locally, the RBA is set to release its September meeting minutes, while Aussie shares and the dollar are weighed down by risk-off sentiment. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, Kathy and Liz Ann open by discussing the implications of the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, focusing on the labor market and upcoming economic indicators. They explore how the rate cut may affect various economic sectors, including borrowing rates and consumer spending. They also highlight the importance of under-the-surface labor market data in predicting future Fed actions.Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, interviews Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group. They discuss the implications of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle on the economy, focusing on labor market dynamics, employment indicators, and the current state of the equity market. They analyze the recent bull market, its origins, and the potential for emerging leadership in various sectors, while also addressing the significance of the yield curve and market valuations.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook for next week's economic data and indicators.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investingThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.Tens/Twos or 10s/2s refers to the spread between the 10-Year Treasury maturity rate minus the 2-Year Treasury maturity rate. The rates are comprised of Market Matrix U.S. Generic spread rates (USYC2Y10).  This spread is a calculated Bloomberg yield spread that replicates selling the current 2-year U.S. Treasury Note and buying the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Note, then factoring the differences by 100.(0924-V45J)

Mohamed El-Erian, Queens' College Cambridge president and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says markets have “excessive data point dependence,” following a 20 basis-point swing in the US 2-Year Treasury on Wednesday following the CPI data report. He is joined by Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Anne Marie-Hordern.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored and reported by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger.

In this episode, Brian Montes discusses two essential tools for trading: the VIX and the 10-year Treasury yield. He explains how these indicators can provide insights into market sentiment and economic conditions. The VIX, also known as the fear gauge, measures market volatility and investor sentiment. A high VIX indicates increased fear and uncertainty, often leading to a decline in stock prices. On the other hand, a low VIX suggests a favorable environment for entering new trades. The 10-year Treasury yield influences various financial instruments, including stock prices. Rising yields can lead to lower corporate profits and a shift of money from stocks to bonds, causing stock prices to decline. Conversely, falling yields can boost corporate profits and make stocks more attractive. Brian provides tips on how to use these indicators to make informed trading decisions. Episode Takeaways: 1. The VIX is a valuable tool for gauging market sentiment and volatility. A high VIX indicates increased fear and uncertainty, while a low VIX suggests a favorable trading environment. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield influences stock prices. Rising yields can lead to lower corporate profits and a shift of money from stocks to bonds, causing stock prices to decline. Falling yields can have the opposite effect. 3. Monitoring the VIX and the 10-year Treasury yield can help traders make informed trading decisions and manage risk. 4. Understanding market context and various factors that influence stock prices is essential for successful trading. Questions? Email me at brian.montes@icloud.com Want to join the DTA Community? https://disciplinedtradersacademy.podia.com/

Will that impact real estate showings? I know Zach wouldn't venture from his climate controlled environment, but what about the average homebuyer? At least you can make sure the property you want to buy has working A/C! Do you carry a balance on your credit card? Well, credit card delinquencies continue to rise according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A year ago, just 8.2% of credit card debt was severely delinquent (90+ days overdue), but that figure is now 10.7%. Please help us stop this trend and contact us about a possible home equity loan or line of credit. Lower your monthly payments AND interest rate! Get out from under the boot of those trying to trap you in the vicious debt cycle. Looking at the larger picture: After a brief scare in April and late May, the 10 Year Treasury seems to be comfortably below the 4.5% yield threshold which is good news for future homebuyers and home sellers alike! Supply and Demand, yadda, yadda, yadaa…. As always, FREE 1 on 1 consultations available at: https://townstone.com/consultation-request/

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into PMI data, employment data, Fed rate cuts, and the stock and bond markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:37 – The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) was reported at a lower figure for the month of May, which is also down from the month of April, revealing a slowdown in the economy02:48 – Comments on the recent employment data released this week, and how it may contribute to the Fed postponing a rate cut in July 05:07 – As economic data was released this week, yields were affected causing a spike in the 2 Year Treasury yield and an 8-point basis jump, essentially confirming there will be no rate cut in July09:02 – While the U.S. plans to stay higher for longer, international markets like the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a rate cut this past week as they're willing to cut first and await the outcome10:22 – While the U.S. economy seems to be diversified, the stock market is not, as the spotlight appears to be on tech companies, such as NVIDIA, since they have been contributing to an increase in gains with the S&P 500 and an increase in earnings15:46 - 17:34 – Final remarks about continuing to stay focused on quality portfolios and staying diversifiedAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: How Much Longer Can the US Consumer Carry the Economy? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

It was one of those losing days on Wall Street as a bunch of pressure came down on the equities chief among them worries about NO rate cut in 2024.  We kick things off with that story and make sure you click through for a conversation about using AI in the workplace. My guest is Wade Britt from Baton Global. We've all heard the horror stories but what good can Artificial Intelligence bring to your job? We had questions...lots of them.  Finally, if you want to reach out to us on Social Media you can hook up with us all day on Twitter or "X" @IOB_NewsHour and on Instagram. Facebook? Sure were there too.  Here's what we've got for you today: Interest Rates, Bond Funds and Wall Street; Drag performers are organizing and why; More consolidation news this time it is about oil; The Wall Street Report; Crude oil sank and the yield on the 10-Year Treasury gained; Another major retailer cuts prices. For the interview you'll meet Our guest, Wade Britt from Baton Global who is here to give us the good news about using AI in the workplace. And you can bet we had...questions.  Many of them. To hear that conversation CLICK THIS LINK.  Let's go! 

See the video version of this podcast episode here: https://youtu.be/w4fevzZutZ8?feature=shared

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.  In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation.  Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.  Links:  BiancoResearch.com  BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/biancoresearch  Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro  0:59 Macro picture  1:49 Stickier inflation  4:27 Bifurcated economy 6:06 Interest rate policy outlook  7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political  9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%  12:00 The Fed doesn't change policy in the summer up to election day  13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%  19:59 Demographics  24:01 Bitcoin ETF  31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million 34:10 Parting thoughts 

Lions and Tigers and 10-year Treasury Yields Surpass 4.5% (Oh My!) So, what's the ACTUAL impact on the economy and consumers? As Treasury yields rise, interest rates on consumer loans, such as mortgages and car loans, often increase. This can lead to higher borrowing costs for mortgages, cars, credit cards, and more. Middle East Tensions get hotter! Escalations between Israel and Iran have already led to a selloff in Iranian currency and stocks, indicating increased market volatility and investor concern over the stability of the region. We expect this to put pressure on oil prices/outflows from emerging markets. Also, is it time to buy some defense stocks like weapon manufacturers? Real Estate Insights - Home Prices: Home prices nationwide were up 6.4% year-over-year in February. Sales Volume: The number of homes sold rose 2.8%, and the number of homes for sale rose 4.9% Market Predictions: Experts predict a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply. Market Size: The Residential Real Estate Market in the United States is estimated at USD 2.53 trillion in 2023, and is expected to reach USD 2.80 trillion by 2028, 2.04% estimated growth during the forecast period (2023-2028). These trends indicate a market that is still adjusting to post-pandemic conditions, with a mix of rising prices and increasing sales volume, alongside predictions of a more balanced growth in the coming years.

How do the Federal Funds rate, SOFR, and the 10 Year Treasury impact multifamily real estate investing? Join Pat for an update on interest rates and forecasts for the future and what that means for multifamily real estate.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out. 

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his prediction for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.  Links:  BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/BiancoResearch  Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and macro outlook  03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market 6:12 The pathway to 5.5% 8:08 The Fed's response to inflation 11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing 15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year 21:40 Why can't we get to 2%?  28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year 31:16 US debt crosses $34T 36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF  44:40 Closing remarks  46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his call for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury, impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/BiancoResearch Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and macro outlook 03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market 6:12 The pathway to 5.5% 8:08 The Fed's response to inflation 11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing 15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year 21:40 Why can't we get to 2%? 28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year 31:16 US debt crosses $34T 36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF 44:40 Closing remarks 46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it. This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023 Graph referenced

Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist at Bank of Oklahoma Financial, discusses the surge in Treasury yields, Jerome Powell's challenges and achievements as Chairman of the Fed, “higher for longer” interest rates and the outlook for housing and consumer demand with Reorg's James Holloway. If you are not a Reorg subscriber, request access here: go.reorg-research.com/Podcast-Trial We're looking for feedback to improve the podcast experience! Please share your thoughts here: www.research.net/r/Reorg_podcast_survey For more information on our latest events and webinars: reorg.com/resources/events-and-webinars/ Sign up to our weekly newsletter Reorg on the Record: reorg.com/resources/reorg-on-the-record/ #leveragedfinance #highyield #restructuring #performingcredit #distresseddebt #debtrestructuring #leveragedloans

Microsoft and Alphabet shares are moving in opposite directions after reporting results. Laffer Tengler Investments' Nancy Tengler discusses. Plus, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher again, putting pressure on stocks. Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson explains. And, Wall Street is preparing for another busy day of earnings. Katz Wealth Management's Jason Katz tees up the agenda.

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Investors are awaiting fresh economic data and considering what could be next for interest rates. Today's Stocks & Topics: JETS - U.S. Global Jets ETF, Precious Metals, Oil Prices, NKE - Nike Inc. Cl B, Master Limited Partnership (MLP), EPD - Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Roth I-R-A, URA - Global X Uranium ETF, Western Companies and China's Supply Chains. Justin's PERSPECTIVE looks at the HISTORY OF CREDIT CARDS. When were they invented? What was the first MODERN credit card? AND-- what is our reliance on them today in 2023?Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields hit 16-year highs a day after the Fed's decision to hold interest rates unchanged. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Ash Bennington to analyze the market action following the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes. With the VIX spiking and yields surging, will equities continue to suffer?To learn more about our new series, Crash or Boom? How to Profit From What's Coming, go to http://realvision.com/crashorboom. We're offering new members a special 1-month Essential membership for just $20.14 so you don't miss it. It's that important. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices