Podcasts about risk savvy

In this episode of the Mind Gut Conversation podcast, I talk to Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer, an icon in the field of intuition research and gut-based decision making. Dr. Gigerenzer is the long-time director at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam. He is the author of the award-winning popular books Calculated Risks, Gut Feelings, Risk Savvy and How To Stay Smart In A Smart World, which have been translated into more than 20 languages. He has trained U.S. federal judges, physicians and top managers in decision-making. The Swiss Duttweiler Institute has distinguished Gigerenzer as one of the top 100 Global Thought Leaders worldwide. During this episode, we talk about a number of fascinating topics, including: - What are the main differences between a rational and an intuitive decision? - Are females better in making intuitive decisions, or is this idea a prejudice based on our paternalistic bias? - Does the advantage of decisions based on intuition vs rational thinking depend on the context? - Does AI make intuitive decisions? Are you enjoying our podcast? Please leave us a review and any feedback to improve our show!

In this episode of the Mind Gut Conversation podcast, I talk to Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer, an icon in the field of intuition research and gut-based decision making. Dr. Gigerenzer is the long-time director at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam. He is the author of the award-winning popular books Calculated Risks, Gut Feelings, Risk Savvy and How To Stay Smart In A Smart World, which have been translated into more than 20 languages. He has trained U.S. federal judges, physicians and top managers in decision-making. The Swiss Duttweiler Institute has distinguished Gigerenzer as one of the top 100 Global Thought Leaders worldwide. During this episode, we talk about a number of fascinating topics, including: - What are the main differences between a rational and an intuitive decision? - Are females better in making intuitive decisions, or is this idea a prejudice based on our paternalistic bias? - Does the advantage of decisions based on intuition vs rational thinking depend on the context? - Does AI make intuitive decisions? Are you enjoying our podcast? Please leave us a review and any feedback to improve our show!

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meI love Bayesian modeling. Not only because it allows me to model interesting phenomena and learn about the world I live in. But because it's part of a broader epistemological framework that confronts me with deep questions — how do you make decisions under uncertainty? How do you communicate risk and uncertainty? What does being rational even mean?Thankfully, Gerd Gigerenzer is there to help us navigate these fascinating topics. Gerd is the Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy of the University of Potsdam, Germany.Also Director emeritus at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, he is a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Law of the University of Virginia. Gerd has written numerous awarded articles and books, including Risk Savvy, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Rationality for Mortals, and How to Stay Smart in a Smart World.As you'll hear, Gerd has trained U.S. federal judges, German physicians, and top managers to make better decisions under uncertainty.But Gerd is also a banjo player, has won a medal in Judo, and loves scuba diving, skiing, and, above all, reading.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau and Luis Fonseca.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag...

How should we respond and react to artificial intelligence and its impact on the world and each other? How should we handle the risk and uncertainty risk caused by the permeation of AI throughout our lives?To tackle these questions, we talked with Gerd Gigerenzer about his recent book, How to Stay Smart in a Smart World. We talk with Gerd about the impacts of big data on making decisions, the increasing use of AI for surveillance, the risks of trusting smart technology too much, and the broader impact of technology on our human dignity.Gerd is the Director Emeritus at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and the author of several books, including Calculated Risks, Gut Feelings, and Risk Savvy and the coeditor of Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions and Classification in the Wild. He has trained judges, physicians, and managers in decision-making and understanding risk.We thoroughly enjoyed Gerd's book and recommend it to both those new to AI who may be looking for an approachable introduction and to those expert in AI who may be looking for a new perspective to think about the future of our digital world.If you enjoy our podcasts, please subscribe and leave a positive rating or comment. Sharing your positive feedback helps us reach more people and connect them with the world's great minds.Subscribe to get Artificiality delivered to your emailLearn more about Sonder StudioThanks to Jonathan Coulton for our music This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit artificiality.substack.com

What do Alchemy and Magic have to do with human decision-making?On this episode, I'm joined by two Behavioural Science gurus who have both been on the show before: Rory Sutherland and Paul Craven. Rory is the author of Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make Sense. Paul Craven is a magician and member of the prestigious Magic Circle. So that's both bases covered! Rory is the Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, and Paul began his career in Finance with over 30 years working for Schroders, PIMCO and Goldman Sachs. Both are Behavioural Science thought leaders.Since the show is approaching its 200th episode — this is the 199th — I thought I ought to celebrate it. So I did what we always do when we celebrate special occasions and decided to replicate the winning formula I used last time. On that occasion, I was joined by Rory Sutherland and Gerald Ashley. Since then, I've also recorded a doubleheader with Gerald and his and Rory's good friend Paul Craven. Like Rory and Gerald, Paul has also done a solo appearance on the show. So for two episodes, I'm joined by Rory Sutherland and Paul Craven. 
In our discussion — and I'm just talking about this episode here — we talk about framing, ethics, Sludge, electric cars, the best joke at this year's Edinburgh festival — warning, it's an adult joke — the Pratfall Effect, or why making mistakes can make us seem more human, ho one man saved the world from a nuclear war, the Beatles, how we look at data and so much more. Links to all of those are below.Paul Craven - https://www.paulcraven.com/Rory Sutherland - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysutherland/?Rory's book Alchemy - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/430379/alchemy-by-rory-sutherland/9780753556528Economist Nicholas Gruen - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Gruen French magician Jean-Eugène Robert-Houdin - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Eug%C3%A8ne_Robert-HoudinFormer guest Gerald Ashley referring to Paul as a conman - https://twitter.com/HumanRiskLtd/status/1395316840105234432?s=20&t=7v2vbVi0FoiyzozKY9sougMarks & Spencer's ‘Dine In For Two' Deal - https://www.marksandspencer.com/c/food-to-order/dine-inEdward De Bono - https://www.debono.com/Germany's 'two click to unsubscribe' law - https://www.thelocal.de/20220303/how-germany-is-making-is-easier-for-consumers-to-cancel-contracts/Sludge - https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerdooley/2021/09/29/you-cant-nudge-if-youve-got-sludge/[Warning: the most controversial show note ever. Contains adult content. Spanish Comedian Ignacio Lopez on Dogging. Here's what the term means: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogging_(sexual_slang)].
Here's the joke: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=246981890669484AThe BBC series My Life As A Rolling Stone - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m0018zwp/my-life-as-a-rolling-stoneThe Donald Trump video where he spends a lot of time choreographing a glass of water - https://www.indy100.com/celebrities/donald-trump-interview-table-waterThe movie ‘The Big Short' - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)Nick Leeson - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_LeesonRogue Trader, the movie about Leeson - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_Trader_(film)Stanislav Petrov, the man who presented World War Three - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Gerd Gigerenzer - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_GigerenzerGerd's book Risk Savvy - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/181878/risk-savvy-by-gigerenzer-gerd/9780241954614
The Chinese Maths problem featuring 26 sheep and 10 goats - https://www.businessinsider.com/viral-chinese-math-question-2018-1? To hear previous episodes of the show featuring:Paul - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-on-magic-money/Rory - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-gerald-ashley/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-rory-sutherland/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-paul-craven/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-gerald-ashley/

In this episode we answer emails from Justin, David, Paul, Ted and "Mycontactinfo".  We discuss the new LifeGoal risk-parity based funds and other commercial concoctions, my availability for consulting, our awesome audience, dealing with a 457b Top Hat Plan and the theoretical underpinnings of most things in the universe, including financial markets.Links:LifeGoal Funds Page:   About LifeGoal Investment (lifegoalinvestments.com)Comparison Analysis of AQRIX:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)IRS Top Hat Plans Page:  Non-Governmental 457(b) Deferred Compensation Plans | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)"Misbehavior of Markets" Book:  The (Mis)Behavior of Markets by Benoît B. Mandelbrot | GoodreadsYouTube Mandelbrot Set Video:  Eye of the Universe - Mandelbrot Fractal Zoom (e1091) (4k 60fps) - YouTube"More Than You Know" Book:   More Than You Know | Columbia University Press"Risk Savvy" Book:  Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | GoodreadsPropecting Mimetic Fractals:  The Fractal Lens - Prospecting Mimetic FractalsSupport the show (https://www.riskparityradio.com/support)

Machine learning and big data are becoming increasingly important, and some say they can make predictions more accurate than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer explained in his book Risk Savvy, the surprising truth is that we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information in the real world.In this episode, Gerd reveals concepts behind Risk Savvy and how misunderstanding statistics leaves us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. He explains how to make better decisions for our health, finances, and family, without the aid of an expert or supercomputer. Join him and Greg as they tackle the Turkey Illusion, Illusion of Certainty, and his other books Simple Heuristic and Ecological Rationality.Episode Quotes:Why do you believe that cultures with a positive attitude toward failure will have much better ways of making decisions than those who have a negative view of failure?Positive error culture assumes that errors can happen. If an error happens, it is taken as a piece of information to find out what's going wrong. A negative error culture assumes that errors must never happen. If an error happens, the idea is to cover it up. Or, if that doesn't work, blame someone to find who is guilty. Will processed data help doctors share more accurate information with the public?It would work if doctors understood the result. But the problem is, if you don't understand the number that it spits out, you're lost. We have now COVID-19, and then we learned that a particular vaccine has 90% efficacy. Another one has 70%; what does it mean? Nobody knows what that means. In my observation, most people misunderstand that. And the misunderstanding started a long time ago, last year. So, this was before the vaccine. Dr. Fauci still hoped that it might be 50% efficient. And then there was an NPR program where someone explained what that means. He said it means that out of a hundred people who get vaccinated, 50% won't get the disease. By implication, the others will. That's exactly what it doesn't mean. It's a reduction of those who are not vaccinated and get the disease to those who are vaccinated and get the disease. What are the incentives for news media to provide valuable information? Or does a desire for better ratings override the need for accurate information?Half the primary goal is to increase attention, which is the case for many. Then they will try to not just provide bad news or good news, alarmists, less alarmist, but also use numbers that frightened people. One example is the use of additive risk increases as opposed to absolute risk increases.How can you teach young people statistics in a fun and playful way, in ways that can be applied in real-life?For instance, teach them easy, simple things like what a 30% chance of rain tomorrow means. They will find out that the parents probably don't know what the reference class is. Is it 30% of the time tomorrow, or the region, or maybe three meteorologists think it will rain and seven not? And so, that's something where young people can get their expertise and learn. They can do something better than maybe many adults.Time code Guide:00:01:42 Judgement and decision-making00:02:58 Benefits and complexities of machine learning00:06:54 Thoughts on lack of computational resources and cognitive limitations00:12:26 Human heuristics and machine learning application00:14:00 How the environment impacts decision-making00:15:00 The Turkey Illusion00:20:11 Investing and some concepts from the book Ecological Rationality00:22:51 Positive error culture00:25:57 Illusion of Certainty00:28:54 Basing inference, conditional probabilities, understanding confusion, matrices,false positives and false negatives00:32:29 How can experts like doctors process data better00:34:22 Additive risk increases and absolute risk increases00:36:28 Striking a balance between people thinking for themselves and trusting experts00:42:37 How can young people learn statistics in fun and applicable waysShow LinksGuest ProfileGerd Gigerenzer Profile at Max Planck Institute for Human DevelopmentGerd Gigerenzer on LinkedIn His WorkGerd Gigerenzer on Google ScholarRisk Savvy: How to Make Good DecisionsEcological Rationality: Intelligence in the WorldRationality for Mortals: How People Cope with UncertaintyGut Feelings: The Intelligence of the UnconsciousCalculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive YouAdaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World (Evolution and Cognition)Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart (Evolution and Cognition)The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday LifeCognition as Intuitive Statistics

Heuristics In Judgment And Decision-Making Numbers don't lie – but they often mislead us. From health risk to financial decisions, it can be hard to understand statistics because they are often presented to us by ‘experts' who misinterpret the data. In his book Risk Savvy, Professor Gerd Gigerenzer shows us all how we can make […] The post Heuristic Decision Making – #302 appeared first on James Taylor.

Heuristics In Judgment And Decision-Making Numbers don’t lie – but they often mislead us. From health risk to financial decisions, it can be hard to understand statistics because they are often presented to us by ‘experts’ who misinterpret the data. In his book Risk Savvy, Professor Gerd Gigerenzer shows us all how we can make […] The post Heuristic Decision Making – #302 appeared first on James Taylor.

Teaser: Repeated research studies demonstrate that doctors and patients alike overestimate the likelihood of benefits and underestimate the likelihood of harms. That is because we do not understand risk. Gerd Gigerenzer, is the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany, and lectures around the world on the importance of proper risk education for everyone from school-age children to prominent doctors, bankers, and politicians. In this book he outlines way in which we can make better decisions in healthcare.

Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisers, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? My guest on the podcast today is Gerd Gigerenzer, Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. Gerd is a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk. His new book, Risk Savvy, shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Here's my conversation with Gerd Gigerenzer, author of Risk Savvy, in episode 466 of Informed Choice Radio.

This episode is sponsored by Ingenius. Today on ProdCast Matthew and Joel talk about minimalism--what is it, and how can it help you be more productive? And not only in reducing unnecessary possessions, but also digital decluttering. We also discuss strategies for reading books productively--how should you approach reading fiction vs. nonfiction, and what are some good nonfiction books we've read recently? Books mentioned in the podcast: Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer The Gift of Failure by Jessica Lahey Lost Heart Found by Megan Smith This episode is a production of Dynamic Podcasts LLC. Subscribe to the  CRM Audio network of podcasts on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

This episode is sponsored by Ingenius. Today on ProdCast Matthew and Joel talk about minimalism--what is it, and how can it help you be more productive? And not only in reducing unnecessary possessions, but also digital decluttering. We also discuss strategies for reading books productively--how should you approach reading fiction vs. nonfiction, and what are some good nonfiction books we've read recently? Books mentioned in the podcast: Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer The Gift of Failure by Jessica Lahey Lost Heart Found by Megan Smith This episode is a production of Dynamic Podcasts LLC. Subscribe to the  CRM Audio network of podcasts on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

My guests today are Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink. Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.  The topics are Gigerenzer's book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions and Wansink's book Slim by Design: Mindless Eating Solutions for Everyday Life. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer's views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin's ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics. Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Michael Covel interviews both Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink on today’s podcast. Gigerenzer joins Covel for his second appearance on the podcast. He is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Gigerenzer’s new book is Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics. Next, Covel speaks with Brian Wansink. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. His newest book is Slim By Design. Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

A famous probability puzzle is discussed involving goats and game shows with German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Is he right to suggest in his new book 'Risk Savvy' that we really don't understand risk and uncertainty? And More or Less listeners weigh in on a problem from last week's programme - how old will you be before you're guaranteed to celebrate a major, round-number birthday (like 40 or 50) on a weekend?