Podcast appearances and mentions of Daniel Kahneman

Israeli-American psychologist

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Free From Wall Street
Strategically Building Wealth Through Alternative Investments with Jim Oliver of The Breakaway Wealth Podcast

Free From Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 25:15


Don't miss this week's special episode featuring Steven as a guest in the Breakaway Wealth Podcast and discover viable alternative investments to help you generate passive income and achieve financial freedom without putting your money into Wall Street. Key takeaways to listen for 05:23 How to transition from a W2 job to a full-time real estate investor 09:37 The benefits of investing with Integrity Holdings Group 11:56 Reasons a 401(k) isn't a lucrative investment 20:13 Actionable tips to kickstart your real estate investing career Resources mentioned in this episode 01:55 Rich Dad's CASHFLOW Quadrant by Robert T. Kiyosaki 06:19 Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert T. Kiyosaki | Paperback and Kindle 06:20 Tax-Free Wealth by Tom Wheelwright | Paperback and Kindle 14:06 Money Magazine 17:55 Wealth Without Wall Street 20:00 SWOT Analysis 24:31 Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman 25:20 The Road Less Stupid by Keith J. Cunningham | Hardcover and Kindle About Jim Oliver Jim is the founder of CreateTailwind, a multi-location and nationally recognized firm who have helped thousands of individuals and businesses around the United States. He is also the host of the Breakaway Wealth Podcast and an expert on the Infinite Banking Method. Through his firm, CreateTailwind, he teaches clients to create wealth without Wall Street and helps others maximize their investment in themselves and their ideas. Connect with Jim Website: CreateTailwind Podcast: Breakaway Wealth Podcast Connect with Us Want to learn more about real estate investing? Visit Integrity Holdings Group to sign up for our 7 Day Passive Real Estate Investing Course (it's free)!

The Modern CFO
The Product Manager CFO with Marcum LLP's Jack Boyles

The Modern CFO

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 36:06


Financial management can make or break a business. Any business undertaking attempted without taking cost drivers, growth prospects, and value realization goals, among other critical factors, into account is leaving a big, wide door open to problems.Jack Boyles, Managing Director at Marcum LLP, understands this perfectly well. With his extensive experience in financial planning and modeling, valuations, and funding strategies, Jack keeps a trained eye on both the micro and macro factors that influence today's rapidly evolving financial services sector.In this episode of The Modern CFO, Jack talks with host Andrew Seski about critical factors to consider for growing companies, how he deals with the unexpected, and the valuable lessons he learned over his 25-year-long career as founder, investor, and CFO of several companies.‍‍Show Links Check out Marcum LLP Connect with Jack Boyles on LinkedIn or via email Check out Nth Round Connect with Andrew Seski on LinkedIn ‍TranscriptPlease note that the transcript is AI-generated and may contain errors. The content in the podcast is not intended as investment advice, and is meant for informational and entertainment purposes only.‍‍[00:00:00] Andrew Seski: Hello everyone and welcome back to The Modern CFO podcast. As always, I'm your host, Andrew Seski. Today, we're joined by Jack Boyles. Jack, thank you so much for being here. [00:00:19] Jack Boyles: Thank you. I'm looking forward to our conversation. I reviewed a number of your other podcasts. They're all great and I learned something in each one.[00:00:25] Andrew Seski: So today, Jack serves as CFO at Marcum. Jack's based in Boston and has been a CFO across a number of industries and is insatiable when it comes to learning new things, trying new industries. [00:00:38] But one of the things that we've been talking about, maybe ad nauseam, but between us is the idea that maybe there is a certain time and place where CFOs can have their biggest impact at, you know, either a type of financing, an industry, and maybe CFOs shouldn't necessarily grow across all stages and all different types of industries. Maybe they should be specialized and maybe there is a time and place for that CFO who can drive the most value. [00:01:05] So this is a topic I really want to dive into and really dig our teeth into because Jack has such a unique vantage point, serving his entire career really honing in on this idea. So Jack, I got to turn it over to you to tease out some of the value and insights here on sort of that topic and whatever else we can foray into across all of the experiences you had as a CFO.[00:01:26] Jack Boyles: Thanks for the great introduction. Yeah, I'm not CFO of Marcum — number one. Marcum has a group of consulting CFOs and so I now work with roughly a half-dozen small and medium-sized companies as a fractional CFO. Prior to that, I've been CFO of a number of companies in which I was founder, investor, angel, and always had a CFO title in a wide variety of verticals — distribution and logistics, software manufacturing, IT services, natural resources. [00:01:57] And right now my portfolio includes a SaaS company — a company working on carbon credits with blockchain — and another marketplace for health services. So, you know, it's a pretty broad spectrum and I've enjoyed it because there has been a number of learning opportunities. [00:02:14] But returning to your theme, I found I'm really good at the five million to 50 million-dollar service orientation companies. And I've realized that that's where I can add the most value. I'm not somebody who can take a company public, although I've sold a number of companies to Fortune 500 companies. But it's really recognizing there are different skill sets for those by both vertical and by size of company, if you will, the capital intensity and sort of the economic structure underlying the business.[00:02:45] So I can break down those and, you know, they're all interesting problems, but it's really a different skill set for each one of them. And you need to manage differently as that, you know, financially-oriented team member. [00:02:58] Andrew Seski: In terms of where some of this interest comes from from my end is the fundraising environment over the last few years dramatically changing in the last few months. So what may have been, you know, a company doing five to 10 million then that could have been valued, and maybe in the software land, maybe even at a hundred X multiples at one point, just an absolute crazy valuation and fundraising environment to, you know, a very, very immediate, almost shift in going from, you know, pure growth orientation to conservative cost cutting, you know, headcount reduction. And I think the question there stems not only just from where the CFO can be the most valuable in their niche and their competency, but also how to weather the volatility of different market cycles. [00:03:42] And there are a lot of variables to play with here so I really like your answer that the CFO can be really valuable by identifying their impact in a niche due to all of the other market environments and volatility in the markets that could, you know, shift strategy and financial strategies that a company may pursue.[00:03:58] Jack Boyles: Well, you're shining a spotlight on, you know, certainly what is the most critical thing for growing companies, which is, do they have access to capital? And is it the right capital on the right terms and in the right timing? You know, obviously, you progress from family and friends to seed rounds, to Series A and up. [00:04:17] But it's really more important, or the starting point for that analysis is really, what's driving the need for cash? Is it building your organization? Is it financing working capital? Is it plant and equipment expansion? Is it building relationships that you need to invest in? So really understanding from a, what I would call a fairly granular level, what are the cost and capital drivers in your business and really internalizing that, that economic, that, you know, the calculus of the business, because that's gonna tell you what kind of capital you need and where to go knocking on the door. It's seldom the case that you're gonna be the first guy knocking on that door, but making sure that they understand your economic model is critical.[00:04:59] And so to narrow your field down on who you're focusing on and what you're offering and making sure, I mean, whether you look at PitchBook or anything else, it's fairly easy to qualify those people and what their investment criteria are. Most firms are very upfront about what they invest in and there's nothing wrong with reaching. But there's also economy and wisdom and finding people who've done your deal before with like competitors because they understand it. They get it. Whether you consider that investor a bank or a venture capital or a family office, find people who have done it before. They're gonna bring more knowledge to the deal — in the one they do because they are always seeking to be better. Their due diligence will be a lot more efficient and helpful to you.[00:05:43] Andrew Seski: So I want to dive into something that comes up on most podcasts. When we talk about people's route to CFO roles, there's a very traditional background of accounting courses throughout undergrad and maybe a consulting job or a Big Four role. We've had a mix between a very traditional and maybe some nontraditional of serving in the Navy. And I want to go back in time to Dartmouth undergrad and leaving school. What was your, some of those first roles? Did you have sort of a traditional background? Because I want to then kind of hit on all the successes you've had because you have a pretty incredible track record as well. [00:06:19] Jack Boyles: Not at all. I got an MBA at Dartmouth and I was something of a quant jock having a mathematics degree and liking computers, which was kind of a new thing then. And, you know, took all the accounting courses. And when I got close to what the careers looked like with the Big Eight — and there were eight at that time — versus the other things that were out there, I chose consulting. [00:06:41] I joined a firm, Temple, Barker & Sloan, in Boston, worked with them for years. And candidly, they liked me because I spoke business and I could write Fortran. Those were the qualifications. And so I ended up doing most of the financial modeling on a broad range of projects and really, you know, got to be known as something of a guru in figuring out the economics in how to simplify them to the important details. I mean, that's an important notion. [00:07:07] Getting a level of detail right is sometimes the hardest thing to do right in making a projection. Too detailed — you can't maintain it, change it, and it's not useful as a policymaking tool. Too macro — it's not informing you on what the really important relationships are between the resources and their results in a business.[00:07:28] I did that for a number of years, worked across telecommunications, oil and gas, resource recovery, some consumer products, and then got tired of working for big companies because, you know, you were kind of siloed. And so when I looked over my years in consulting, the fun companies were all small and growing. That made the choice easy. So I went off on my own and one after another, you know, lived out that dream. [00:07:53] Andrew Seski: So you've mentioned early on that you are really passionate about continuous learning. And I think you probably identified consulting as one of those ways to be very, very oriented to try to be a value adder early on in your career but also across a lot of different industries so that you can continue to learn. It's very clear that you maintain that theme by being able to have a similar job title across all of these different types of firms.[00:08:18] But how are you thinking about that in terms of some of the risk profile of — I think there are a lot of CFOs who have probably fairly, just a pretty well-defined risk adversity — but going from big consulting shop to smaller firms to deploy some of that knowledge, did that phase you at all or were you pretty comfortable in those positions? [00:08:37] Jack Boyles: My wife didn't ask a lot of questions about what I was doing. So honestly, I was blessed with somebody who was very supportive and understanding and had confidence that I could make it work, whatever I chose to do. And she's, you know, she's been half-right.[00:08:52] Andrew Seski: Well, let's start talking about some of the consistent themes across these CFO roles because you do have a lot of experience in successful exits. Like I mentioned, your track record is incredible. So I want to dive into some of the themes and valuable lessons that we can share to the network of CFOs and listeners today.[00:09:11] And maybe it starts with the kind of continuous learning aspect of always trying to drive forward continuous learning. Maybe it's the definition of what a modern CFO is across being somebody who's really proficient in understanding and measuring the value of technology versus maybe opportunity cost. So were there any things that stood out really early in your career that were cemented later across some of the more successful exits that you've had?[00:09:40] Jack Boyles: I think one of the most important things to do is not overestimate your team's understanding of what the CFO is really supposed to do. And I think it's really helpful when engaging, you know, with a new team to lay out, you know, your assessment of what the roadmap is and what the principle projects are, the priorities, timing, and resource required for them. [00:10:02] Above all, we have to be good project managers. Yes, we have to have the financial disciplines and understand how to put financial statements together and make intelligent decisions about IT, infrastructure, and risk mitigation, and so forth. But really laying out that roadmap for your team members and really saying, "These are the things I own," "These are the things I need your support with." And don't assume that they really understand what the role is and how integrating it needs to be in how the business develops. [00:10:33] You know, the CFO should really take responsibility for building the infrastructure to support the vision of the people who are creating the products and services and the technologists in this day and age that are driving it forward. But to really confirm their understanding of your role, the need for detail, the need to measure what they're doing and provide regular feedback in particular that monitors their progress against their objectives. So to me, that's a lesson I learned over and over again and every time I skip it, it's like, how did I miss that? It's just, I thought I had learned that lesson the last time. And that's critical whether it's, you know, regardless of what industry you're in. [00:11:12] You mentioned the other thing about the thing that keeps me motivated. You know, one of the things that happens at business school and when you're a math major is you acquire all these analytical techniques and tools. You know, I'm really in the business of, you know, old tools for new problems. And so when somebody talks to me about security policy — huge issue for most companies today in the security, you know, whether it's compliance with GDPR or SOX to any of those issues — you know, you don't hear anybody talking about applying Bayesian analysis to that, which is, we all know the technique, but use that framework to structure the decision, to add quantitative data and substance where you can, but also understand, you know, what you're not gonna know and is undiscoverable and be able to make decisions. [00:11:59] You know, the role of a CFO if they're effective with not only the preparation of financials but can adapt that data to the decision making that's in front of them — that's critical. That's a valuable, valuable partner in your decision-making process. Not that they don't get a vote — they do and should have a vote — but the reality is making sure we've chosen the right analytical framework and context for the problem, understand what we know, what we don't know, what's worth researching, and how much time and resources are we willing to spend to improve the decision. Critical thing. And it cuts through a lot of the maxims you hear from one CFEO or, you know, one entrepreneur or the other, speed is everything in one case, fail fast. You hear all these things, but putting it in structure and putting numbers to it really helps you apply those lessons in a very focused and constructive way.[00:12:54] Andrew Seski: I want to continue to talk about this just for a moment because we've had now the pandemic. It looks like we already have a looming recession. When we talk about constructing sort of traditional models with a little bit of leeway and communicating out, you know, exactly what the role of the CFO is, how do you create and think, or how do you personally think about how to create some sort of, you know, configurability around circumstances changing and some sort of flexibility in terms of, you know, creating the models that would be able to handle, you know, some of the maybe more unforeseen types of events that we've had in the last few years?[00:13:29] Jack Boyles: Oh. [00:13:30] Andrew Seski: It's a complex question. [00:13:32] Jack Boyles: Well, I mean, you know, there's great literature on that over the past 10 years, starting with The Black Swan and the work of The Undoing Project, which is about people, you know, two psychologists won the Nobel Prize in economy and economics for really undoing capital markets theory, is what they did, and sort of challenge some of the basics of, you know, thinking fast and thinking slow, which is Daniel Kahneman's famous book. [00:13:59] Andrew Seski: Is Undoing, is that a Michael Lewis? [00:14:01] Jack Boyles: Yes. The Undoing Project is the story of Kahneman and his partner that led to the Nobel Prize. Kahneman, you know, his partner died in this research, but Kahneman continues to write and is still very influential about thinking about how decisions are made and what we, what we just assume and make decisions on every day, which needs to be tested, which is sort of at the root of these unforeseen things that nobody saw coming. [00:14:29] I'll segue back to something I raised earlier: security issues today. You know, when you ask Amazon and you've moved all your stuff to their cloud services, you know, what are you gonna do to make sure we never fail? And they say, you're making an assumption that we're not gonna fail sometime. Assume that the network's gonna go down at some point. That's a real risk. How are you gonna handle it? We can't provide that guarantee. I think about risk in that way, which is I really do carefully consider obsolescence risk of products and services. That's particularly relevant today given the pace of technological innovation and disruption going on. [00:15:05] I think, you know, we have to think very carefully in most businesses. The current clients that I have are not really geared in doing flexible planning regarding the likely wage expectations of, you know, anybody they're hiring. You know, it's not just the commission you pay a recruiter. It's the fact that the basic wages are gonna be 10% higher. So really working through at a fairly, you know, a mid-granular level, which is wages, resources, regulation can change and fundamentally alter the nature of competition in your vertical competitors themselves as well as new products and services. And I think you just have to be structured about that and really be honest. [00:15:47] People wave a hand at it by saying we've got very strong customer relationships. Well, yeah, maybe you do. I can look back and see what the recurring revenue is per customer and I'm not sure what that tells me, you know, given the threats to their business, the threats of competitors, you know, this is a free market capital society. They're gonna earn money for their shareholders and do what they think is right for them. You really have to be very circumspect about placing too much reliance on those strong customer relationships that you've had forever and even the legal contracts underneath them. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to that.[00:16:26] Andrew Seski: Right. Having a really, really specific understanding of stakeholders, you know, not just your stakeholders but their stakeholders and, you know, whether that's their investors, the shareholders, employee owners, you know, the things that affect their businesses and your clients' businesses as well.[00:16:40] Jack Boyles: Everybody at the table.[00:16:42] Andrew Seski: Everyone at the table.[00:16:43] Jack Boyles: Everybody at the table has alternatives and it's important to understand that you can't, you know, neglect any of them and because whether it's your circumstances or their circumstances that changes dramatically, you both have to re-examine the relationship and be prepared for it.[00:16:59] Andrew Seski: One of the things we were talking about just before we started recording were some big shifts that have taken place in terms of where financial data is stored, maybe the, like sort of the future of the CFO role. And I want to touch on some of that because I think it'll reframe some of the conversation into what we can think about in terms of strategic planning in the next three to five years or even zooming out further with more innovative technologies. You mentioned you had a blockchain company that you're working with doing carbon credit so you're hitting two major themes that, even in the news right now around climate change and government funding, some new climate initiatives.[00:17:35] So I want to zoom out a little bit and talk about some of the macro things that have happened in terms of where technology and financial services have intersected, especially in the role of the CFO. [00:17:45] Jack Boyles: My perspective is if you look back over 50 years, there have been three or four major events that wholly changed the way finance was supported within companies, starting with the creation of ADP. When Frank Wattenberg created that company back in the sixties, nobody dreamed that you'd ever have the confidence to outsource the most confidential data you had, which is the compensation of your employees. You know, 10 years later, you were considered inefficient and backwards if you weren't using an outsourcer to manage the payroll processing problem. They did it better. They did it more competently. They were well-equipped to keep pace with a compliance requirements that constantly changed. Looking back, it was like, why didn't we do that earlier? [00:18:29] A couple years later, we moved from big, secure IBM mainframes to running our financials on little local area networks everywhere that rolled up. It was a revolution from having to have a mini computer, a mainframe to process your financial data or, worse yet, do a lot of it manually. That happened, you know, overnight. We all changed again with the year 2000 worries and upgraded all of our technology. [00:18:58] The last thing that happened was the move to the cloud. In 2015, I remember talking to financial partners about, you know, was anybody else contemplating moving their accounting onto these crazy platforms, NetSuite and Intacct? Not a one. I talked to a dozen companies. Not a one. Three years later, they were behind the eight ball if they weren't in that project. And now you have to have a very stable, very small business if you haven't moved your financials to the cloud, whether it's on Oracle or SAP or Intacct or NetSuite or QuickBooks Online. [00:19:34] And I predict the next, you know, role to change is the CFO. I think that the reality is the breadth of skills that a CFO had to bring 20 years ago is irrelevant today, largely. You know, the person you want in that role has great familiarity with the vertical, has great familiarity and comfort with the size of company — how many people, what's the size of the management team. You work entirely different if you're in a C-suite of a Fortune 500 than if you're one of three people running a 50-million-dollar company and you have very intimate and intense relationships with the other members of that C-suite. [00:20:13] So I think that's going to change and you're going to find, you know, CFOs, particularly for growing companies, change more often. Somebody who's really good from startup to 10 million. Somebody else has a different skillset from 10 to a hundred million, and you need somebody else for the IPO. They're different skillsets. You know, the lower you go, the broader range of skills you have to marshal and more hats you have to wear as you go up the chain, you become more of a manager and in public relations role. [00:20:46] So within the sectors that I serve, I find that it's as important for me to be able to source critical services, whether it's in IT, professional services, legal accounting, insurance, or other specialty services, whether it's R&D tax credits, 401(k) advisory work, issues of that nature. So I'm, you know, a third sourcing agent for all the professional services, a third, you know, controller, whatever accounting hat I have to wear. And third really business planner partner to the other executives. [00:21:20] Andrew Seski: So that's really helpful in terms of contextualizing all of the dynamic requirements of the CFO today. And I think it's really helpful to look backwards before looking forward. One of the things I want to segue slightly into — maybe it's more consistent or maybe it's even changing now because of everything that is more standardized and in the cloud — but I want to talk about liquidity and exits and relationship with CEOs. [00:21:45] You've had a number of exits and I'm trying to decide if I have an opinion whether or not transactions will always be complicated. You're always gonna need to bring all of the stakeholders we've mentioned into the same room to hash through details and figure out what's best for buyers and sellers. And while there might be some standardization, there's still a ton of human-level emotion behind, you know, exits. [00:22:09] So I want to know if there's been any sort of intersection between the efficiency of due diligence and exit planning. Has technology influenced all of that or is it still highly manual? A little emotional as always in building great companies and maybe having an exit, but it'd be a fun thing to think through and talk about because it's been a hard few years. I think the number of transactions that happened in the last few years have probably been off the charts. In the early 2020, I think 2020, there was record number of IPOs, first half of the year. So just thinking through that, I would love to hear either stories or lessons learned or, you know, your perspective on whether or not you think technology's gonna impact liquidity and exits. [00:22:50] Jack Boyles: Well, I think two things. In terms of the mechanics of it, you know, the progress in deal rooms and standard terms and analytical tools to look and value companies is extraordinary today. The tools at our disposal to do financial analysis have never been better. I think the hidden value of the technology isn't just the deal room and the ability to communicate better. I think you also find that people who've done a number of transactions are starting to put more and more emphasis on what are the fundamental infrastructure systems that are in place. [00:23:25] If I'm buying a company that's using the same systems I do, hallelujah. My transaction implementation cost have been cut by two-thirds. I'm not retraining their staff. I'm not reinventing the wheel. I'm doing some data cleanup at consolidation. So if you're a small company or mid-size company with a view towards being bought or buying others, choosing an industry standard platform for your ERP is critical, you know, that's not customized. It greatly simplifies and ensures the success of a transaction because it means you spend, you know, two months integrating operations rather than a year. Time is of the essence in these transactions. [00:24:07] And I think we're gonna go into a phase, particularly with, if we are in fact in recession and are likely to see a number of quarters and the capital pools are gonna dry up or be constraints fundamental, I think you're gonna see a wave of consolidations among these companies and that's gonna be their choice, either sell their IP and their customer lists if they're just technologists or go out of business because I don't think the subsequent rounds that were readily available two years ago are gonna be coming as quick or be as favorable in terms of valuations. [00:24:40] So when you look at the, you know, how the worm's turning, I would urge mid-size companies, who are revenue, you know, have profitability, positive cash flow, to really think about who are the comparable and natural acquirers for them. Chances are those companies, if they need to exit or thinking about it, they probably know who their acquirer is. And I would in some cases that, you know, urge them to have those conversations before they engage in investment banker because we're all looking at the same two-year outlook, which is highly uncertain in terms of both economic environment, as well as the availability of capital. And I'd plan for that. [00:25:20] In most cases, you know, companies that are consolidating in some form, they already know who the players are. And they know, and they're very thoughtful and intentional about what they're gonna look like to facilitate that and remove obstacles to combinations. [00:25:35] Andrew Seski: So just thinking from an investor's standpoint and from a founder's standpoint, I think in the next three to five years, there's kind of a double-edged sword here. I think on one hand, there's some excitement around if there is a downturn and money is being spent more strategically and maybe a little less out of fear of missing out on opportunities than there is that shakeup where really there could be some market dominators, if they can survive a downturn and really capture a big part of the market share in their industries.[00:26:07] So I think that is somewhat exciting to see the shakeup. It's probably nerve-racking as well for both investors and founders in the same vein. But I was gonna ask if you were really excited about anything on that kind of time horizon. I know we just mentioned the next two years feel very uncertain. But just from all these different perspectives, I was thinking it might be unique to hear what you might be excited about in the next three to five.[00:26:30] Jack Boyles: Personally, I think, you know, the whole promise of blockchain technology, in particular smart contracts, is really going to change finance in very fundamental ways that most people don't grasp yet. When I consider simple things that we had, you know, trade finance, importing goods from another country where it used to be a long, drawn-out procedure with very strict guidelines for the documentation and a very globally revered process for clearing payments and managing the transport of goods. That's a blockchain transaction. That's a smart contract today and it's collapsing.[00:27:05] Well, you know, that's, those same technologies are gonna influence lots of things in the finance world. And so I honestly see financial organizations changing dramatically. So individually as somebody who's working with small companies as a finance guy, I find that very exciting to anticipate those changes because it'll be as important as outsourcing payroll and moving your financials to the cloud and fractionalizing your CFO. It's really gonna change the way things work. [00:27:34] And the, to me, the biggest question is, it's not "if," it's "when." Is it, it could be two years. It could be five years. It could be seven. I'm not smart enough to know what the obstacles to adoption are. Oh, maybe I do. Yeah, I'm guessing it'll be government.[00:27:48] Andrew Seski: Well, I think there are a ton of regulatory pushes being made like, as we speak, basically. But I'm glad to see that a lot of the blockchain applications that are catching some traction are around decentralized finance. It's a really hard problem to solve. But there are a lot of people trying to put certain blockchain applications out there where it's sort of a square peg in a round hole. It's a more natural fit, I think, in a lot of the legalese of smart contracts being digitized. So I'm also looking forward to that. [00:28:17] I always ask whether or not you feel something is, you know, maybe undervalued or underestimated in the world from your vantage point. I know we've touched on a lot of big themes across innovative technology, across the changing role of the CFO. But just wanted to give you the opportunity if you wanted to take the conversation in really any direction where you just feel that people may not fully appreciate something that's more clear to you given all of your industry experience. [00:28:45] Jack Boyles: This is hard for somebody who's a numbers guy to say, but the proper functioning of teams is more important than I ever wanted to admit, you know, as I chose to be a math major and then went, you know, focused on quantitative things in my consulting career. And I think COVID and virtualization of so many organizations, I think there'll be another library filled with the books consultants write in three to five years about what separates those companies that did that well and knew how to bring back and re-engage their workforce. [00:29:18] The successful company that, you know, that we write about five years from now is not the one that said, well, you know, starting 2023, you've gotta spend two days a week in the office. They're gonna be a lot more sensitive to it. They're gonna be a lot more, they'll learn a lot more from how the teams functioned during COVID and immediately thereafter and they'll figure it out. And that's gonna separate the real winners and the teams that have, you know, long-term, excess profitability, and market valuations, and all of those other good things from the rest. Because once you can do that, you're accessing a global workforce, which means you can, you know, do a much better job optimizing, you know, targeted recruiting at the best cost. You'll find centers of excellence and be able to tap into them much more rapidly than a firm that's constrained and tied into some old HR, you know, notions of how this should work. [00:30:11] So I can't predict who those companies are, but that's what I'm watching very carefully. What are the innovative companies doing when it comes to how they manage their workforce, how they reward their workforce now that we've broken the model that says you show up in the same place every day. [00:30:27] And you know, certain industries are, certain companies, those that process medical claims, for example, have led in sort of, well, we don't have to do this in New York City; we can do it in Upstate New York. Or, you know, there are lots of examples of people that have taken a function and done it well, but it tends to be a very routine function and it tends to be easily supported remotely.[00:30:50] You know, the last two years gave us an opportunity to blow everything up and try new models. As somebody who's enjoyed a business career and continues to enjoy seeing what's coming, I'm really looking forward to seeing who the winners are in that race. [00:31:04] Andrew Seski: Yeah, absolutely. I was curious if you, I know you've been somebody over the course of your career who's continuously pushing the envelope on trying to find whatever is on the horizon. I'm curious as to if there are any unique sources that you look to. I mean, I've mentioned on other podcasts, I still get a physical Wall Street Journal. I'm very careful on how I curate social media and how I get news. And it's, you can just so easily be bombarded. I'm curious as to how you curate what you receive or if there are any kind of unique ways that you go seek out information or book recommendations. [00:31:38] And I only ask because Nth Round just launched a newsfeed because we are the same way. Everyone on our team has such unique access to really different types of news and we consolidate it and try to, you know, just showcase what we're thinking about that we think is interesting. It's always kind of a really unique niche between finance, technology, regulation, but it's important to us. And it's just a really interesting mix of news. So I'm just kind of curious as to, you know, as you look to your next revolution of Web3 and blockchain and everything that's happening in the world of technology and finance and regulation, kind of how you're sifting through, you know, the huge amount of content.[00:32:16] Jack Boyles: You know, honestly, we're drinking from a fire hydrant right now.[00:32:20] Andrew Seski: Absolutely. [00:32:21] Jack Boyles: I mean, just, you know, there's so much new technology and I've never prided myself as someone who can create technology. But I've always thought I was pretty good at seeing its applications and where I could really have a role. So having said that, you know, I do scan, I love to listen to a16z podcast. They always seem to be ahead of the curve in terms of identifying a technology and sort of what the fundamental economics are that are gonna, you know, lead to mass adoption. So I find that to be a great source of ideas in thinking about what's coming next. [00:32:54] Myself, I tend to go to raw data. Who is the ex-CEO of Microsoft, not Bill Gates' successor. Who's created a, you know, an American facts database. So I'll open the phone book, essentially, of facts — the Census Bureau, the tax rolls, you know, Bureau of Labor and Statistics — and look at something that may, you know, based on the idea that there's a new technology, say, well, if this applies to plumbers, how many plumbers are there in the world? You know, where are they, what do they do? Really understanding, sort of not trying to solve a global, you know, moonshot problem, but is there a problem everybody has in their household every day that this widget, this service might address? [00:33:37] To me, I am a low-hanging fruit guy. So if there's a problem that says, you know, there was really a better mouse trap, I'd be all over it because I can estimate how many mice there are and think about the problems of addressing that problem. So that's kind of how I think about things. [00:33:54] I do have an example. I ran into a company that was doing field service in electronic repairs. I looked at it and said, well, there's 300 or 400 companies you have to maintain relationships with for warranties. And there's four to 5,000 of you guys across the nation. And there's only one national player? That doesn't seem right. There's an arbitrage. There's a roll up here. [00:34:14] So to me, that was an interesting problem. I worked on it. We merged a couple companies, interesting things. But I'll look at the existing situation in an industry. I think I'm pretty good at looking at the macro forces of how an industry works, how a business works, see where there's a real arbitrage and next opportunity to exploit, you know, not trying to reinvent the wheel, but make it work better, consolidate where possible. [00:34:40] Andrew Seski: Well, stay on after the recording. I've got a very funny story. I'll have to confirm, but I believe it's told on the podcast, it's a Steve Ballmer story about early Microsoft days. But one of our podcast guests had to report to Ballmer and got some very implicit advice in his early career about efficiency and modeling, you know, assumptions after data. So we'll talk about that as we wrap up. [00:35:03] But how would you recommend people get in touch if they'd like to talk to you about any of these concepts that we've covered today or get in touch with Marcum about maybe utilizing some of the services that you're currently serving? [00:35:16] Jack Boyles: The easiest thing. I'm on LinkedIn and very visible, Jack Boyles. There aren't that many of them. So you should be able to find me. There's also a jack.boyles@marcumllp and msn.com as well. So, happy to take all calls and look forward to chatting with anybody who found this an interesting conversation. [00:35:34] Andrew Seski: Excellent. Well, thank you so much for joining The Modern CFO podcast. And I hope to talk again soon.[00:35:38] Jack Boyles: Great. Thanks, Andrew. Take care.‍

How to Be Awesome at Your Job
801: How to Find the Upside amid Uncertainty with Nathan Furr

How to Be Awesome at Your Job

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2022 54:39


Nathan Furr discusses how to reframe your relationship with uncertainty to open up to new possibilities. — YOU'LL LEARN — 1) How to turn the fear of the unknown into an excitement for possibilities 2) The six types of risk and how to manage them 3) How to deal with the frustrations of failure Subscribe or visit AwesomeAtYourJob.com/ep801 for clickable versions of the links below. — ABOUT NATHAN — Nathan Furr is a professor of strategy and innovation at INSEAD in Paris and an expert in the fields of innovation and technology strategy. His bestselling books include The Innovator's Method and Innovation Capital. Published regularly in Harvard Business Review, MIT Sloan Management Review, Forbes and Inc., he is an Innosight Fellow, has been nominated for the Thinkers50 Innovation Award, and works with leading companies including Google, Microsoft, Citi, ING, and Philips.• Book: The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown • Website: UncertaintyPossibility.com — RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THE SHOW — • Study: “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk” by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky • Study: “Drop Your Tools: An Allegory for Organizational Studies” by Karl E. Weick • Book: The Colossus of Maroussi by Henry Miller • Book: Finite and Infinite Games by James Carse • Film: Son of a Lion • Past episode: 210: How to Generate Many Creative Ideas with Tina Seelig See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ExtraChristy - Podcast

Believe Believea sermon by Rev. J. Christy Ramsey DOWNLOAD A LIVE RECORDING Audio from worship at the 11 AM Worship Service August 14, 2022at Valley Presbyterian Church, Bishop,CAedited from a flawless transcription made by edigitaltranscriptions all errors are mine. Luke 16:19-31 Sermons also available free on iTunes I want to talk to you about truth. And why we can’t believe it. Why we have so much trouble with it. Now, again, I must warn you in these times that if you think truth and lie is political, you get another political sermon today. Hopefully it’s not as long. But if you think that truth is a good thing for Christians to consider when we follow the guy, the savior, the son of God that calls himself, what?, the way, the truth, and the life, well, then this is a faithful sermon. I mean, after all, truth is Jesus’s middle name. We should be able to talk about that as Christians. What is going on in this scripture? Is this the weirdest scripture ever? Is it true? Ooh. That’s a tough one. If you’re saying, Christy, is it true, is this a transcript of a conversation between heaven and hell and between Abraham and the rich man who has no name, and Lazarus, who doesn’t say a word in the whole darn story, is that true? Is it a transcript? Did Fox News have a reporter there transcribing everything? Was it on a podcast? Was it captured by a secret recording device? Is there video? If there’s video, didn’t happen. If you say all that about being true, well, I don’t know. If you’re saying, Christy, is this a roadmap to heaven and hell? Is this a way to figure out how we could go with heaven and hell? Can we measure the actual chasm? How deep is it? How wide? Can we sing about it deep and wide or what? Is it true that way? I’m not so sure. And maybe even step back further, and you say, Christy, Christy, is this all about heaven is a place where those who have a lot get tormented, the rich get tormented, and those that have suffered get comfortable, so it’s okey-doke, the great wealth inequality and divide today, because after all it’ll get all sorted out in the afterlife? Is that what this scripture’s about? Now, most preachers will tell you that the whole thing is on the last one, that even if someone would rise from the dead, they would not believe them. Jesus is kind of predicting what would happen when he comes back from the dead and people don’t believe him. But I don’t know if Jesus was really thinking about that when he told the story. What is true in this story? Strangely, I think what is true is the last line, that people don’t believe based on evidence, based on what they see and what they know. They do it the other way around. We don’t take a whole bunch of little evidence and then come up with the truth. We don’t do that as a people, as a species, as human beings. We don’t do that. We’re not like a whole bunch of scientific instruments and measurements and rulers and spectrographs and that we figure out what is true. We’re not like the James Webb Telescope where we look out, we take those photons and assemble them into galaxy and the truth of the universe. We don’t do that. There is a book called Noise that just came out, and it’s by a really big thinker named Daniel Kahneman. Here’s what he said on Science Friday in July. We have the wrong idea about where beliefs come from, our own or those of others. We think we believe in whatever we believe because we have evidence for it. Because we have reasons for believing. Reasons. When you ask people, why do you believe that, they are not going to stay dumb. They’re going to speak. They’re going to give you reasons that they are convinced explain their beliefs. But actually the correct way to think about this is to reverse it. People believe in reasons because they believe in the conclusion. The conclusion comes first for us humans. And the belief in the conclusion in many cases is largely determined by social factors. You believe that people you love and trust believe, and you find reasons to believe it. And they tell you your reasons for believing that, and you accept the reasons. For this larger social phenomenon it is not an error of reasoning because reasoning isn’t involved until after you’ve made your decision and conclusion. And that, by the way, is true to your beliefs and my beliefs. Your beliefs and my beliefs reflect what we’ve been socialized. It reflects the company we keep. It reflects our belief in certain ways of reaching conclusion, like a belief in the scientific method. Other people just have different beliefs because they’ve been socialized differently. And because they have different beliefs, they accept different kinds of evidence. And the evidence that we think is overwhelming just doesn’t convince them of anything. And it’s only gotten worse. With social media and streaming services, you know, when I grew up there were three networks. Four if you counted UHF, but who watches news on that? There were three networks and the paper, the newspaper. That was it. That’s all you got. But now you can fine-tune your reality down to the very last demographic got point. If you want to see only Trump news all the time, just switch on this channel. Or you get this Facebook feed. And Facebook tracks how long you watch things, and they’ll show you more like that. YouTube’s even worse, that the more you watch stuff, the more of that kind of stuff you get. So suddenly you’re in a very tight little bubble of social news and information that you are not exposed to anything else. And of course when you’re clicking on it, you’re clicking on stuff that interests you that already support your conclusions and what you think. And we’re just never going to get to the truth. So in Twitter, I don’t know if anybody has Twitter. But on TweetDeck, if you click on an article that said, an article, whatever you wanted to call it. It’s terrible awful. You click on it and say I want to retweet this. I want to pass it on. Twitter will stop you now and say, uh, do you want to read that first, before you send it out to everybody? How do I know that? Oops. We come to a conclusion, and then we find reasons. So you say to yourself, you see, so how can people believe the Big Lie? It’s obvious to me that the election was fair. I mean, they’ve had 60 court cases, and we’ll go after our reasons one after another. But it doesn’t matter because we went from conclusions to reasons, not reasons to conclusions. And the other people do the same way. Of course it was stolen because there was boat parades and Trump is the greatest ever and he told us that it was stolen. They have all these reasons, too. But it doesn’t really matter because they started, just like us, with the conclusions, and then went for the reasons afterwards. What can you do if our whole life, our whole belief system, the way we live, the way we look at the world, the way we vote, the way we talk to another, is conclusion first, reasoning to support it after? What is there to do? There’s a great movie, the video’s coming out. There’s a great movie called “Secondhand Lions” from 2003. I highly recommend it. It got a little punchy in places, but not so bad compared to today. And one of those things is there’s a mystery of the two men and where the heck they come from. They were gone for 40 years. They supposedly have a lot of money, like buried treasure money. And where they’ve been 40 years, supposedly they were in Africa and had these wild adventures. And they were telling them to their great-nephew Walter. And Walter confronts Hub about those stories in our clip today. WALTER: Those stories about Africa, about you. They’re true, aren’t they. HUB: Doesn’t matter. WALTER: It does, too. Around my mom, all I hear is lies. I don’t know what to believe. HUB: If you want to believe in something, then believe in it. Just because something isn’t true, that’s no reason you can’t believe in it. There’s a long speech I can give, and it sounds like you need to hear a piece of it. Sometimes things that may or may not be true are the things that man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. They find courage and virtue in everything. The power and money, money and power mean nothing. The good always triumphs over evil. I want you to remember this. Love, true love never dies. Remember that, boy. Remember that. Doesn’t matter if it is true or not. You see, a man should believe in those things because those are the things worth believing in. Got that? WALTER: That was a good speech. HUB: Think so? Thanks. Doesn’t matter whether it’s true or not. You can still believe in it. Do we agree on that? If we choose what we believe, and then find reasons to come to that? Why do we believe? We can say, well, we’ve been socialized to believe the Bible and the scriptures and the Savior and the stories and Sunday school and all that stuff. But you know, that’s what our friend the author says. But you know he doesn’t go far enough because it’s not just what we believe and what we experience and what we figured out, what we socialized. I don’t think so. I don’t think it gives enough thought to it, too. Because, you know, what we believe is partly what we talk about is what the received canon is, what the received faith is that goes, not just what we know, certainly hopefully not just the faith is based only on what we’ve experienced, but it’s through the history of the church and thousands of years, and experiences that go all the way back to those that actually knew Jesus and those that were with him and around him and around the witnesses that wrote the gospels. And it comes back through us through thousands of years. So it’s not just what we experience, but what the church has experienced, the people have experienced. You know, it’s like having blue checkmarks on Twitter, you know, these are verified sources that we believe in. But I think he’s right in that we don’t believe things because we actually found Noah’s Ark and its preserved wood, and we did carbon dating, and we found all sorts of animal food, and all sorts of different debris from animals, and so we know that was Noah’s Ark, and so we know it – no, we don’t do that. That part’s true. We believe what we believe because of what we see in the lives of other people, not just social things, but how we see other people live out their lives. There was a woman named Terry. Terry came to the church I served. Terry did not believe in God. She was right out front saying she did not believe in God. But oh my gosh, she was there every Sunday. So she was there every Sunday with her partner, who was a big God believer. And she came, and she listened. For years she listened to me yell at her. I mean preach, like I do. And she finally came in to be baptized – she was in her fifties – and accepted Jesus Christ, not because it was proven to her, but because she saw the difference in the life of her partner and the friends and the church. And she saw what it meant to others, people, what it prompted other – her partner was a great deacon, leader of the deacons, just always helping people everywhere, all the time. And she was baptized, became a member, elected to Session, served on Session. And then when I left that church she was my reference. And it wasn’t because I proved Christianity to her by the four spiritual laws or anything else that led from reasoning to conclusion. It was because she had the conclusion, you know, this Christian thing seems to be working out pretty good for these people. They’re pretty good people that are around here. And she went that way. You know Jesus doesn’t really give an entire theological course. The systematic theology of Jesus is not a thing in the Bible. He doesn’t say one after another, how does the trinity work. He doesn’t say how does salvation work. He doesn’t even say what effectual calling is, and we get tested on that in seminary, and there’s nothing from Jesus on it. He doesn’t say anything. What does he do? He tells stories about people and their lives and how they live and how they treated other people. And he says this is the way that people treat one another. This is the way the kingdom is. This is the way people work out. He healed people. He healed the sick. He didn’t say “Give me your testimony, and also you’re going to have to be baptized. You’re going to have to do” – no, he healed the sick, whoever was brought to him. He healed the Roman servant, the Roman, the occupier, the military, the colonizer, the one that beat down and will eventually kill him. He healed the servants. Are we going to say “friend”? That’s another sermon. There’s no faith there. But he was showing them how we live in the kingdom. So you’ve got some friends, one way or the other. I don’t know which way they are. We are not going to take a survey. I will be checking your cars for bumper stickers later and taking notes. But you’re not going to change one way or the other by arguing them with proof and conclusions. I mean, just look at the things going on. They go down to Mar-a-Lago and do an FBI raid. And there’s all, “Oh, a raid, it’s terrible, it’s awful, what the heck are you doing there? There’s nothing there.” And they go, “Well, okay, there were boxes of classified secrets.” Oh, yeah. “Oh, it was obviously planted. It’s not really that important.” Evidence doesn’t matter because we’ve already come to a conclusion, and we’re just looking for reasons to support it. So what Hub tells us, and what Jesus tells us, and what I’m telling you, is that choose straight up what you’re going to believe. And then go around the world making that happen, making reasons for other people to believe that what you write is true. If you believe all people are basically good, what are you going to be looking for? You’ve going to be looking at evidence that all people are basically good. That’s a pretty good way to spend your life. If you believe that honor, courage, and virtue mean everything, that is what you’re going to work on. You’re going to work on being honorable, being courageous, being virtuous. And you’re going to be looking for that in other people, and pointing that out, and lifting that up, and celebrating that. If you believe that money and power, power and money mean nothing, you go live your life that way. And you go look for reasons why money and power, power and money mean nothing. If you believe good always triumphs over evil. I always like the saying “Good always triumphs over evil at the end. And if good hasn’t triumphed yet, it’s not the end.” You’ve got to be looking to do that, looking for reasons to believe that, to celebrate that, to promote that, to pass it along. The same thing with true love. True love never dies. And there are problems in the scripture. We could go on and on. I know you like long sermons, but what’s going on in that scripture. But, you know, even if you hear the sermon about oh, my gosh, he’s ordering Lazarus around even though Lazarus is dead and kind of not his servant anymore because, you know, dead. You know, and he doesn’t even treat him, he won’t even go himself, he doesn’t even ask himself, oh, Abraham, forgive me for being such a big jerk. That would be a whole different sermon there, if he did that. But it’s a story, and Jesus was telling us that people don’t come to faith by people telling them and arguing with them about how they’re wrong and how they should live different. It comes from us living different, from us choosing what we believe and living that way, of getting our conclusion and then making the reasons in world and in their lives to support that conclusion. Wouldn’t that be wonderful, if we were the proof that faith and courage and virtue were the most important, that power and money mean nothing, and that true love is forever, never ends. Wouldn’t that be great if that was our conclusion, and we spent our life coming up with reasons why that’s true? Much better than arguing with other people about how that should be because, even if someone comes back from the dead, they’re not going to believe it. But they will not believe it. But we can live it, and we can pass it on by our lives. Amen.

Unorthodox
Class Acts: Ep. 330

Unorthodox

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2022 74:03 Very Popular


This week on Unorthodox, lots of lox drama at one Manhattan synagogue. Our Gentile of the Week is author and podcaster Michael Lewis, who gamely revisits his 1993 Toy Goy article in the New Republic, tells us about being on the receiving end of antisemitic taunts for attending the Isidore Newman School in New Orleans and shares what he learned researching his 2016 book, The Undoing Project, about the friendship between Israeli cognitive psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Our Jew of the Week is Dana Bash, CNN's chief political correspondent and the co-anchor of CNN's State of the Union. She joins us to tell us what she learned while reporting her recent CNN special, “Rising Hate: Antisemitism in America,” and why she decided to also make the story personal.  Our annual fundraiser is underway, and this year we're upping the stakes: for every $100 you donate, you'll be entered to win a mystery gift box curated by Stephanie, Mark, or Liel. Donate at tabletm.ag/mysterybox, and thank you for your support. We're heading back on the road! Find out about our upcoming events at tabletmag.com/unorthodoxlive. We love to hear from you! Send us emails and voice memos at unorthodox@tabletmag.com, or leave a voicemail at our listener line: (914) 570-4869. Remember to tell us who you are and where you're calling from.  Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get new episodes, photos, and more. Join our Facebook group, and follow Unorthodox on Twitter and Instagram. Get a behind-the-scenes look at our recording sessions on our YouTube channel. Want to book us for a live show or event in your area, or partner with us in some other way? Email Tanya Singer at tsinger@tabletmag.com. Unorthodox is produced by Tablet Studios. Check out all of our podcasts at tabletmag.com/podcasts. Sponsors:  Soom tahini is the perfect ingredient for your fall meals. Use discount code UNORTHODOX22 for 10% off your next order at soomfoods.com.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Daily Motivations
Build Self Confidence and Self Esteem

Daily Motivations

Play Episode Play 30 sec Highlight Listen Later Sep 14, 2022 48:41


 Speaker: Lisa Nichols, Bob Proctor, Jack Canfield, Mel Robbins, Anna Akana, Brendon Burchard, Rolf Dobelli, Daniel Kahneman, Lori Stohs, Gwun Chin, Katty Kay.Kindly follow us onInstagram - @daily_motivationsorg  Facebook- @daily_motivationsorg Please Kindly support this show by clicking the link belowAlzheimer's Disease Podcast7-Part miniseries about Alzheimer's, treatments and lifestyle changes.Listen on: Apple Podcasts SpotifyDaily Motivations Support Thank you for your support, your name will be mentioned in the next episode description Support the show

Psykologen i Øret
3 trin til at håndtere økonomisk stress, så du kan sove godt om natten

Psykologen i Øret

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2022 53:48


Lige for tiden mærker mange af os økonomisk stress, hvad end vi objektivt set har grund til det eller ej. Der bliver talt meget om økonomisk krise i samfundet. Renterne stiger, mange ting er blevet dyrere, og vi går en dyr vinter i møde, hvor vi ikke ved, hvad energien kommer til at koste, og om der overhovedet er nok af den. Økonomisk stress – 3 ting du kan gøre nu Vi har allesammen hver vores pengehistorie og forskellige følelser og vaner og mønstre omkring penge og økonomi. Psykologien omkring penge og stress omkring penge er et overset emne men meget relevant lige nu. I dette indlæg (og podcastepisoden du kan lytte til herunder) kigger jeg nærmere på økonomisk stress og ikke mindst, hvordan du nedbringer stress omkring penge og økonomi, så du kan have ro i sindet og sove godt om natten. Også selvom din økonomi er presset. Læs (eller lyt) med her, hvor jeg kommer ind på: Hvorfor økonomisk stress er et overset emne Hvad videnskaben siger om økonomisk stress - bliver man lykkelig af at have mange penge?Hvorfor økonomisk stress kan ramme dig, hvad end du har få eller mange pengeAt vi lige nu er omstillingsudmattede og ikke orker en økonomisk krise eller energikriseOm privatøkonomisk robusthedHvordan økonomisk stress påvirker kroppen og sindetKnap så hensigtmæssige copingstrategier, vi nemt kommer til at anvende i forhold til økonomi3 ting du kan gøre nu, du kan bruge til at håndtere økonomisk stressLidt om min egen pengehistorie, og hvad vi selv har gjort for at nedbringe økonomisk stress. Økonomisk stress er et overset emne - penge er en vigtig del af livet Penge er et interessant emne psykologisk set, og jeg synes ikke, vi taler nok om det. Nok fordi penge er et privat og for mange svært emne at åbne op omkring. Vi har alle en "pengelivshistorie" og går rundt med et særligt sæt af vaner og overbevisninger omkring penge, der enten kan betyde, at du trives rent pengemæssigt eller, at det er noget, der stresser dig og gør dig ulykkelig. Derudover kommer økonomisk stress også ofte i kølvandet på andre typer af stress og udfordringer. Arbejdsmæssig stress, skilmisse, sygdom, familieforøgelse eller andre store ting kan rokke ved fundamentet og betyde, at vores økonomiske situation ændrer sig. Om vi trives økonomisk handler ikke kun om mængden af penge, vi har, men i høj grad også vores forhold til penge. Når jeg ser på, hvad der stresser folk, så er penge en vigtig faktor. Det er ofte kilde til konflikt i parforhold, og da mere end 1100 af jer svarede på en undersøgelse om stress, jeg lavede sidste efterår, hvor jeg bl.a. spurgte, hvilke bekymringer der kan holde jer vågne om natten, svarede mange "bekymringer om økonomi". I mit eget liv har bekymringer om penge og især frygt for ikke at have nok fyldt meget. Jeg er vokset op med økonomisk stress, og det sidder i mig, selvom jeg objektivt set ikke har noget at bekymre mig om. Jeg tror, at i tider som denne, vil mange opleve, at deres frygt og forskellige mønstre omkring penge dukker op til overfladen. Mange penge kan gøre dig mere tilfreds med dit liv men gør dig ikke mere glad til daglig Der er ingen tvivl om, at mangel på penge kan stresse os og påvirke os negativt. Mange undersøgelser har gennem tiden vist, at der er en sammenhæng mellem, hvor mange penge vi har og vores trivsel. Men hvordan hænger det sammen? Videnskaben på området er omfattende og interessant at dykke ned i. Her er et par interessante studier, der er værd at kende til. Et kendt studie udført af Daniel Kahneman og Angus Deaton, peger på, at til et vist punkt, bliver vi mere tilfredse med livet, når vi har flere penge. Hvis vi mangler penge påvirker det både vores oplevede tilfredshed med livet overordnet set og vores daglige følelsesmæssige velvære negativt. Interessant nok øger det vores oplevede tilfredshed med livet, når vi har flere penge, men det øger ikke vores følelsesmæssige velvære i det daglige. Ting,

simplify your life|Tamil Podcast with Vinod|வினோத்துடன் தமிழ் பாட்காஸ்ட்|
Tamil audio book|book summary of Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman in tamil|A tamil podcast

simplify your life|Tamil Podcast with Vinod|வினோத்துடன் தமிழ் பாட்காஸ்ட்|

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2022 26:06


Check out the Tamil book summary of thinking fast and slow If you want to start your own podcasting journey using your iPhone or iPad check out the link below and get a 1month of skill share premium subscription free https://skl.sh/3qbLKXj buy the Book English Version https://amzn.to/3d986pO The answer lies in the two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking. This book reveals how our minds are tripped up by error and prejudice (even when we think we are being logical), and gives you practical techniques for slower, smarter thinking. It will enable to you make better decisions at work, at home, and in everything you do. (00:15) About Daniel Kahneman (01:11) What does this book speak about (01:57) Systems that govern our Thinking (03:01) System 1 (05:07) System 2 (06:19) Two systems are complimentary (07:14) Heuristics approach (08:33)System 1 affects the decisions we make every day (09:36) The law of Small numbers (10:46) Anchoring Bias (11:45) Priming bias (13:05) Cognitive ease (13:35) We are always jumping to conclusions (14:07) What is the Halo effect (15:00) Confirmation Bias-The most common bias (15:41)Availablity bias (16:42)Sunk cost Fallacy bias (17:40) Regression to the mean effect (20:08) Hindsight Bias (21:11) Risk Aversion Bias (22:00) Loss aversion bias (23:20) Memories shape our decision (25:14) Follow me and leave a rating --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/vinod-kj/message

Becoming Superhuman
The remarkable similarities between unhealthy masculinity and bad leadership

Becoming Superhuman

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2022 7:51


What's your favorite movie of all time? Until recently, I had a number of movies vying for the title of “Jeff's favorite movie.” I wouldn't fault you for thinking it's Spider-Man: No Way Home. I love that movie, it's easily my second favorite movie of all time. Dead Poets Society made a huge impact on me at an important time in my life. Countless other movies have made it into the top 3, at various points of my life. Recently, I came across a movie that resonated with me in every possible way. It was exciting, engaging, thought-provoking, and emotionally touching. Immediately after the closing credits started rolling after my first viewing, I knew it was my favorite movie of all time. The movie is called Everything Everywhere All at Once. Whether or not you've seen it, we're going to extract an important lesson from it. I'll give you all of the context you need. However, I think we should start somewhere familiar… Who are our Leaders and Heroes? Quick! Think of a superhero. Chances are, most of you reading this thought of one of the following: Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, Iron-Man, or possibly Wolverine. These are some of the most popular characters as well being some of the longest running publications. When we think of Leaders, a similar phenomenon occurs — we often think of men, first. In both of these cases, we have an unconscious bias that is largely a result of the availability heuristic (”rule of thumb”). The availability bias shows we are generally more likely to recall things that we see frequently or that stand out. In many cases, these biases can lead us to make incorrect conclusions as Daniel Kahneman points out in Thinking Fast and Slow. However, in the case of gender in leadership and comics, the stats are clear, men overwhelmingly dominate. Most of the prominent and celebrated leadership positions we see on a regular basis are dominated by men, even when considering any recent progress for gender parity. The Fortune 500 has reached an all time high for women CEOs…at 44, or 8%. Meanwhile, comics continue to have a representation problem that goes back decades. All of this is undergirded by the cultural norms handed down to us by the society we live in. While the sum-total of everything above is not the exact definition of the patriarchy, we are dancing in the same disco. via GIPHY The Leaders and Heroes we see When we have such a strong support system for placing men at the apex of society and in leadership or idolized roles, we naturally begin to analyze their traits assuming that it must be something in their behavior or habits that explains their success rather than any structural advantages created through violent opposition to equity. In a capitalist system, this means that we will find ourselves seeing success among those who are stoic or unfeeling, willing to be aggressive, willing to win at all costs in service of maximizing shareholder value. If you live in the US, you are also living in a country whose entire commonly shared history is a collection of stories that glorify war and conflict while glossing over the untold suffering caused by these conflicts. Is it any wonder that our leaders are influenced by a culture whose “real heroes” went into battle and whose fictional heroes are to be revered and modeled because they indulge our power fantasies of invulnerability and justified, righteous violence? It is here that we find ourselves waist deep in the conversation about culturally accepted understandings of masculinit

B3Cast
3 coisas pra você saber que rolaram no eventão de dados da B3 e da Neoway | Minuto B3 - 30/08

B3Cast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 1:25


Quer saber o que o ganhador do Prêmio Nobel de Economia, Daniel Kahneman, tem pra te ensinar sobre investimentos? A gente te conta, junto com um resumo do que aconteceu no maior evento de análise de dados do Brasil, o DDB. É só conferir no Minuto B3

Choiceology with Katy Milkman
Not by a Long Shot: With Guests Katia Jordan & Craig Fox

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2022 33:52 Very Popular


Humans can easily distinguish between a zero-chance event (e.g., the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2022) and a sure thing (e.g., the sun coming up tomorrow). But in between those two clear outcomes, it turns out that we're not great at estimating odds.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.Katia Jordan had all the makings of a tennis star: a preternatural talent, an intense drive to succeed, top-tier coaches, and parents who supported her dream completely. She was certain that she would be the next Venus Williams. But along the way, she discovered that her path to tennis glory was not as straight as she imagined.Katia Jordan is a former Division 1 tennis player and is currently script coordinator on the television program All American Homecoming.Next, Katy speaks with UCLA psychology professor Craig Fox about how we tend to overweight the likelihood of small probabilities. Building on seminal work by his mentor Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Dr. Fox explains a bias in the way we imagine the odds of rare events and demonstrates approaches gleaned from his research that can help us better avoid distortions in the way we conceptualize risk and reward.  Craig Fox is the Harold Williams Chair and Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.Finally, Katy gives examples of the areas in your life where you can save money, improve health, and avoid some anxiety by better understanding the true likelihood of rare events.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important Disclosures All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0822-2CTA)

Nepomuceno Estratégia Digital
#1 - Rápido e devagar de Daniel Kahneman

Nepomuceno Estratégia Digital

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2022 10:00


#1 - Rápido e devagar de Daniel Kahneman - O Sapiens nunca pensa, sempre repensa, pois pensar é o exercício de uma Mente Pensadora Mais Criativa e Revisora sobre uma Mente Pensadora Mais Repetitiva. - Assim, quando falamos que estamos pensando, na verdade não estamos pensando, mas repensando. - Do ponto de vista mais formal, quando falamos de várias Mentes, estamos, na verdade, tratando de várias funções da mente. - É a Mente Pensadora Mais Criativa e Revisora responsável pela melhoria continuada da qualidade de vida de cada pessoa. - Quando Kahneman, de forma equivocada, divide a Mente em Rápida e Devagar, ele está falando EXCLUSIVAMENTE da Mente Operadora e não da Pensadora! - Um diálogo, antes de tudo, é um espaço no qual pessoas estão abertas a aprender, a partir da Cooperação Conceitual. - A função de um Empreendedor Conceitual, antes de qualquer coisa, é a de organizar os diálogos para que eles possam ser feitos de forma mais adequada e eficaz. - Todos os órgãos do nosso corpo têm o objetivo de nos permitir viver melhor o mais tempo possível. https://bit.ly/artigobimodal290822 É isso, que dizes? Venha conhecer a Visão de Futuro para Disruptores da Bimodais! Me manda um Zap: 21-996086422 (Nepô, chega de MIMIMI!) Compre meu livro Administração 3.0, autografado:https://bit.ly/adm30autografado

Teaching Your Brain to Knit
Ep. 139 Thinking Fast and Slow; Knitting and Crochet; Cars to Bikes

Teaching Your Brain to Knit

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2022 34:05


Brainy thing: 15:26 Behind the Redwood Curtain: 24:14   What We're Learning from our Knitting and Crochet: Margaret knitted a small amigurmi beet, part of Susan B. Anderson's Summer Veggie Charm set. https://www.ravelry.com/patterns/library/summer-veggie-charm-set. This is her fourth charm but she always learns something new from Susan. This time Susan designed a two color saw tooth pattern to create a transition between the white bottom of the beet and the top (In Margaret's case, a beet red left over called cinnabar by Hazel Knits Yarns.). Margaret also appreciated the wavy beet leaves. Catherine continues to crochet her Mandala Baby Blanket by Melanie Grobler at M and M Crochet Designs https://www.ravelry.com/patterns/library/melanies-mandala-baby-blanket. She's been using the yarn in the Karon rainbow color but without warning the big box store Michael's is out of it and she's been trying to find additional skeins.   Brainy Thing: Margaret reports on Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, a book and theory about how we use two systems for thinking: one fast and instinctive and one slower and more reasoned. But both systems are prone to erros.   Behind the Redwood Curtain: Arcata like many cities is trying to get fewer people to drive and more people to use bicycles but it is encountering some growing pains in this switch.   Welcome to Episode 139 of Teaching Your Brain to Knit where we present the theory of Thinking Fast and Slow, talk about knitting an amigurimi beet and crocheting a mandala baby blanket and discuss trying to make Arcata and other cities less reliant or cars and opening up options for bicycles. I ask for a little more indulgence than usual for the sound quality today because not only are we dealing with the zoom problems in a community that does not have good wifi options, but also, Catherine is sitting outside in the rare but wonderful days around here that offer sunshine, a little warmth and not too much wind -- but as a result you'll hear some background noise of her neighbors.    

SinnSyn
#357 - Tenkt, fort og langsomt

SinnSyn

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2022 33:18


Daniel Kahneman har skrevet en svært interessant bok som heter «Thinking fast and slow». Den er full av interessante innblikk i menneskets mentale apparat, og den presenterer forskning på hjernen som er såpass oppsiktsvekkende at det kan få leseren til å endre oppfattelsen de har av seg selv. Jeg skal ikke ta for meg hele boka denne episoden, men fremføre et par interessante poeng som forteller litt om menneskets selvforståelse.Først vil jeg snakke litt om hukommelsen. Det er sannsynligvis åpenbart for de fleste at vi ikke husker ting akkurat slik de var, men husker en slags rekonstruksjon av det som faktisk skjedde. Denne rekonstruksjonen er sårbar for feil og mangler, noe som gjør hukommelsen vår delvis upålitelig. Kahneman legger til at vi husker med to ulike «avdelingen» i hjernen, og han kaller disse for hukommelses-selvene.AvslutningDet siste du hørte var kun et lite utdrag fra en lengre refleksjonsrunde omkring ideene til Daniel Kahneman. I vårt mentale førstegir er vi intuitive og kreative, mens i andregir er vi ettertenksomme og grublende. For at vi skal fungere, må systemene jobbe godt sammen. Vil du høre mer om dette, kan du gå til episode #56 på patreon. Episoden heter rett tog slett «Spontan eller reflektert», og den inneholder hele foredraget du kun fikk en smakebit av her.I tillegg finner du over hundre andre poster fra denne podcasten inne på Patreon. Her er det over 50 ekstra-episoder av SinnSyn, mentale øvelser, mye videomateriale og jeg leser bøkene mine, kapittel for kapittel, slik at Patreon til slutt huser lydbokversjonen av mine tre bøker. Hvis du finner verdi her på SinnSyn, vil ha mer SinnSyn hver måned, og har lyst til å støtte prosjektet, slik at jeg kan holde hjula i gang her på podcasten, er et abonnement på Patreon av stor betydning. Du kan selv velge beløp (50, 80 eller 130 nok) per måned, og beløpet vil altså gi deg et medlemskap på mitt såkalte mentale treningsstudio. Jeg vil også benytte anledningen til å takke alle dere som allerede er Patreon supportere. Det er lyttere som dere som sørger for at lysene er på her inne på SinnSyn uke etter uke, måned etter måned, år etter år. Det er kostnadskrevende og tidskrevende å drive denne podcasten, men jeg elsker å gjøre det, og med støtte fra Patreon-lyttere kan jeg prioritere SinnSyn hver uke! Tusen takk for det! Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nice Games Club
"I'm not coding your game, y'all figure that out." GameMaker for Unity Devs; Inspiration from Behavioral Economics

Nice Games Club

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2022


Your nice hosts accidentally stumble into the thesis of the show as this episode explores these two topics! Also found in the show: Stephen's composed song, Mark tries to avoid Entity Component Models and Ellen thinks about snakes for 20 minutes (but holds it together somehow).Beefsteak Tomato - WikipediaWoman in Motion - ParamountWoman in Motion on Peacock - PeacockWoman in Motion on Tubi - TubiNoble Robot - Noble Robot GameMaker for Unity Devs 0:06:01 Stephen McGregorProgrammingToolsStephen was wrong, here's a marketplace for GameMaker plugins - YoYo GamesWhat is the difference between statically typed and dynamically typed languages? - Stack OverflowRust - Rust TeamMain Theme for Rooty Tooty Fresh n Shooty (Stephen's Work Project) - Stephen McGregor Inspiration from Behavioral Economics 0:40:58 Ellen Burns-JohnsonGame DesignGaming5 Examples of Behavioral Economics in Your Everyday Life - Rebecca Koch, The Chicago School of Professional PsychologyChoice architecture - WikipediaWhat determines human decisions? - Daniel Kahneman, UBSRichard Thaler - WikipediaNudge (book) - WikipediaPredictably Irrational - Dan ArielyFreakonomics - Freakonomics Radio NetworkProspect theory - Behavioral Economics

Foot Traffic Podcast
Creating a Happier Life with Gretchen Rubin

Foot Traffic Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2022 35:39


On today's podcast, I sat down with New York Times Best Selling Author, Gretchen Rubin. Gretchen is one of today's most influential and thought-provoking observers of happiness and human nature. She's known for her ability to distill and convey complex ideas with humor and clarity, in a way that's accessible to a wide audience. She's been interviewed by Oprah, eaten dinner with Daniel Kahneman, walked arm-in-arm with the Dalai Lama, had her work written up in a medical journal, been the subject of a “The Talk of the Town” piece in The New Yorker magazine, and been an answer on the game show Jeopardy! She's the author of many books, including the blockbuster New York Times bestsellers, The Four Tendencies and Better Than Before. Her book The Happiness Project has sold more than one million copies, been published in more than thirty languages, and spent more than two years on the New York Times bestseller list, including at #1. In her books, she draws from cutting-edge science, the wisdom of the ages, lessons from popular culture, and her own experiences to explore how we can make our lives happier, healthier, more productive, and more creative. I asked Gretchen questions like... What sparked you heading down the "happiness" path? Whats the secret to happiness Her tips to being happier Why passion is critical to being happy How does your physical space effect your happiness Tune in to today's episode and you'll be on your way to a happier you! Did you love today's episode? 1. Take a screenshot and share it to your IG stories. Tag me @stacytuschl! 2. Leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! _______________ Ways to work with Stacy: 1. Snag our most talked about System - How to Hire an A-Player Assistant in 14 Days Or Less Here. http://www.aplayerassistant.com 2. To learn more about Well-Oiled Operations click here.

CFO 4.0
Top reads for CFOs this summer with Mark Gandy, host of CFO Bookshelf

CFO 4.0

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2022 58:47


In the latest episode of CFO 4.0, Hannah Munro talks to Mark Gandy, creator of the Financial Operating System and Host of the CFO Bookshelf podcast. A finance pioneer, Mark has worked in several finance positions during his career including Corporate Controller, VP of Finance, and CFO. Together Hannah and Mark talk about their shared interest in reading and discuss their book recommendations for finance this Summer. Also covered on this episode:Hannah & Mark's favourite genre of booksWhy people in finance should embrace their creative sideMark's top book recommendations for finance What books should CFOs be reading on their next beach holiday  What you can learn from narrative non-fiction booksLinks referenced in this episode:Mark Gandy's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markagandy/ CFO Bookshelf: https://cfobookshelf.com/category/podcast/ Book mentioned in this episode:Barbarians at the gate - Bryan Burrough and John HelyarCrime & Punishment - Fyodor DostoevskyUncle Tom's Cabin - Harriet Beecher StoweDrive – Daniel H. PinkA whole new mind – Daniel H. PinkReversing the slide – James SheinEndurance – Brian SandersThe great game of business - Bo Burlingham and Jack StackThe effective executive - Peter DruckerCEO: Building a $400 Million Company from the Ground Up – Sandra Kurtzig Open – Andre AgassiThe Wisdom of Finance - Mihir A. DesaiThe secret life of groceries - Benjamin LorrBoys in the boat - Benjamin LorrThe Warehouse – Rob HartGhost in the wires – Kevin MitnickWhy – Simon Sinek Atomic Habits – James ClearNudge – Richard ThalerOne minute manager - Ken Blanchard and Spencer JohnsonNoise – Cass R. Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman, and Olivier SibonyDeep work – Cal NewportSo good they can't ignore you – Cal NewportAll change – the project leaders secret handbook - Eddie ObengThe living leader – Penny Ferguson 

Lexman Artificial
Why Do People Still Try to Juggle More Balls Even When It Is Clearly Impossible? with Daniel Kahneman

Lexman Artificial

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2022 5:16


Daniel Kahneman, who is considered one of the world's foremost cognitive psychologists and won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, has a fascinating story about juggling. As a young man, he was fascinated by the Conway Twaddler – a toy that can be juggling five balls simultaneously. He soon learned that it is much easier to juggle three balls than five balls. And yet, as he observed people juggle more balls, he realized that they continue to try to juggle more balls even when it is clear that they cannot. Why?

The Garrett Ashley Mullet Show
Nudge by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein

The Garrett Ashley Mullet Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 59:56


Prominently lauded and recommended on the book cover by Daniel Kahneman – co-author of ‘The Undoing Project,' along with Amon Tversky - 'Nudge' is the practical application extension of Kahneman and Tversky's theory and research in behavioral economics. To give just one example, Thaler and Sunstein brainstormed ideas for normalizing gay marriage in the first edition of their book, published in 2008. In their 'Final Edition' - the version I read - they explain that governments around the world, rather than relying on nudges like they recommended, just passed laws declaring gay marriage the law of the land. And they were happy with that. But Thaler and Sunstein say “We do not support a position known as “Presumed Consent,” but we do support freedom of choice.” And by this they seem to consistently mean what Progressives all over America do when they talk about being Pro Choice - freedom of choice for those whose humanity is fully recognized and affirmed. Expressing a notably low opinion of conservatives and conservatism as contrary to progress, Thaler and Sunstein proposed government getting out of marriage entirely in their earlier edition. The civil union strategy was to serve as a kind of end-run around traditionalist and conservative arguments against by playing games with the language. They were also pleasantly surprised Obama came out in favor of gay marriage in a reversal of course from his initial campaign claims and pledges. Countries that legalized gay marriage in the early 2000's and 2010's listed in 'Nudge,' each homosexual coming out of the closet is cited by them as an individual 'nudge.' So also, they talk about how in 2013 an openly homosexual bar association was admitted to argue cases at the U.S. Supreme Court for the first time, introducing 30+ lawyers who were homosexuals to Supreme Court Justices. This too served to nudge SCOTUS to the 2015 decision that judicial body made in Obergefell v. Hodges. Meanwhile, from a social and cultural standpoint, presenting normalization of acceptance for homosexuals and thereafter gay marriage as an up and coming reality, an inevitable trend, helped to make the same into a self-fulfilling prophecy even before it was actually a reality. In other words, they lied. They created the false impression, much like Ben Rhodes bragged about creating an echo chamber of disinformation in the American media regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal. It didn't hurt that David was both Ben's brother and president of CBS News from 2011-2019, by the way. But “people can even nudge themselves" seems a kind of after-thought for Thaler and Sunstein. The realization of such gets downright creepy when you come to the chapter on organ donation and an exploration of options available to governments regarding the supply and demand of transplantable organs, including the suggestion that a market could be created for them to be bought and sold. Isn't that what the CCP has been doing? And it gets downright menacing when they talk about government responses to COVID and Climate Change around the world, in no small part with the help of their influences. 'The Prince,' 'Propaganda,' 'Rules for Radicals' - Thaler and Sunstein's work feels like a dressed-up and modernized version of these and other books I've read which the Left in the U.S. especially is fond of using for strategic source material. It would seem Progressive realpolitik decided to put on a smiley face just as Goldberg's 'Liberal Fascism' foretold. The cure for what ails American society is not more nudges. The solution is for manipulative folks to stop manipulating the Nudged Enough Already. So maybe we need a new political movement. We'll call it the NEA Party. It'll be like the TEA Party, but countering nudges instead of taxes and regulations. Those who join soonest and fight hardest we will call “the knights who say NEA.” --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/garrett-ashley-mullet/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/garrett-ashley-mullet/support

Dynamic Growth
Inflation Reduction Act & Thinking Slow

Dynamic Growth

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 42:43


In this episode, we discuss inflation once again and give our thoughts on the recent legislation designed to reduce inflation. As well as recent events developing in China and Taiwan. Lastly, Nate gives his thoughts on the benefits of "thinking slow" referencing a book titled "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman and how that relates to emotions and investing. We hope you enjoy the episode!

Audio-only versions of Futurist Gerd Leonhard's keynotes
Special Podcast: Speaking Across Differences Futurist Gerd Leonhard and Prof, Bill Halal

Audio-only versions of Futurist Gerd Leonhard's keynotes

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 32:11


This is a special podcast episode that we recorded with Bill Halal on "Speaking Across Differences". Professor Bill Halal and me met once again (following our recent GerdTalks show on ‘Beyond Knowledge); this time for a podcast / audio only discussion about the need for improving how we speak to each other and how to become better listeners. (Text by Bill Halal) “Politics in the US, Russia's attack on Ukraine and the decline of democracies everywhere show that conflict is the biggest issue of our time. And it is likely to get worse. Social media is driving speech into uncharted territory with disinformation, inflammatory language and biased algorithms. The digital revolution is automating knowledge, driving the world beyond knowledge into subjective consciousness. Most major problems have “rational” solutions that could be good for all sides. (eg, climate, guns, abortion, etc.) But people are acting on emotions, hate, resentment, greed, power and other values and beliefs in the face of a cluster of existential crises like climate change. We have to learn how to listen to views we don't like, accept compromises, bargain, and offer better solutions. This would require a shift from competitive talking to a cooperative dialogue where all sides try to understand each other and reach agreement. It means that truth is not absolute but something that emerges out of consensus. A “learning society” that can talk across differences. A new field of study is emerging to help us navigate these differences (Daniel Kahneman et al., Noise; Adam Grant, Think Again, etc). This also suggests that centrist politicians could gain power because they are able to unite opposing sides in policies that benefit all. Above all, the basic need is to shift today's mindset from self-interest, money and power to a global consciousness based on cooperation….”

Behavioral Grooves Podcast
How Do Incentives Actually Impact Motivation? | Dr Indranil Goswami PhD

Behavioral Grooves Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 61:05


Incentives can improve motivation. But what actually happens when the incentive is removed? An influential body of research previously suggested that extrinsic rewards have a negative impact on intrinsic motivation. However, more recent studies show this not to be the case over the long term. Our guest, Dr Indranil Goswami PhD, talks us through the longer term effects of temporary incentives and the implications for motivating behavior change. Indranil is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University at Buffalo.  The research that we focus on in this episode is the paper he co-wrote with Dr Oleg Urminsky PhD, called  “The Dynamic Effect of Incentives on Post-Reward Task Engagement”. While there may be a dose of confirmation bias with this conversation, Kurt and Tim are excited to hear more about Indranil's research which backs up what they have been telling companies for years: “Incentives are useful for improving people's behavior, engagement and performance.” Managers, academics and even parents have bought into the widely held belief that extrinsic motivators are not a useful tool for initiating behavior change. But Indranil's work may help you reevaluate the tools you use to motivate those around you. Listen in and let us know if it encourages you to rethink your incentive program. Regular listeners to Behavioral Grooves may enjoy being part of our exclusive group of Patreon members by supporting our work. You can also write a review of our podcast on whatever platform you listen on, and we often read these out on the show. Thank you!   Topics (2:49) Welcome and speed round questions. (4:00) Do extrinsic incentives always suppress intrinsic motivation? (9:41) Does post incentive disengagement actually happen? (16:59) The surprising effect of big incentives. (22:42) Real world experiences of incentives. (25:03) Can we design incentives that improve post reward performance? (31:40) What is more motivating - flat fee payment schemes or rate based payment scheme? (38:57) Does Indranil use music as motivation? (43:18) Grooving Session with Kurt and Tim on rewards and motivation.   © 2022 Behavioral Grooves Links Goswami I, Urminsky O (2017) The dynamic effect of incentives on postreward task engagement: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28054810/  Daniel Kahneman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman  Dan Ariely: https://danariely.com/  Eisenberger, R., & Cameron, J. (1996) Detrimental effects of reward: Reality or myth? https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.51.11.1153 Dan Ariely, Uri Gneezy, George Loewenstein, Nina Mazar (2009) Large Stakes and Big Mistakes: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00534.x Episode 106, Jana Gallus: The Role of Precision in Incentives: https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/jana-gallus-the-role-of-precision-in-incentives/  Goswami, Indranil and Urminsky, Oleg (2018). Don't Fear the Meter: How Longer Time Limits Yield Biased Preferences for Flat Fee Contracts: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3448174 Episode 71, Alex Imas: Clawback Incentives and Tom Waits: https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/alex-imas-clawback-incentives-and-tom-waits/  Behavioral Grooves Patreon:  https://www.patreon.com/behavioralgrooves   Musical Links Ravi Shankar “The Spirit of India”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMk2eTqPLWk 

Vlan!
[BEST-OF] Comment prendre de meilleures décisions? Avec Olivier Sibony

Vlan!

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 55:29


Comme chaque été, je fais une sélection des meilleurs épisodes de la saison pour vous proposer de découvrir ou de redécouvrir des épisodes exceptionnels. Olivier Sibony est professeur de stratégie à HEC, auteur de nombreux ouvrages et dernièrement de “Noise” (sortie en français cette semaine) qu'il a co-écrit avec le prix Nobel d'économie Daniel Kahneman, psychologue et Cass Rustein, sans doute l'un des juristes les plus connus des Etats-Unis. Il fallait bien ces 3 personnes, ces 3 disciplines pour couvrir un sujet aussi complexe que celui de la prise de décisions car nous sommes toutes la journée confrontés à prendre des décisions ou à l'inverse soumis à la décision d'autrui. Nous avons tous en tête les biais cognitifs bien sur, même si nous les conscientisons pas vraiment. Mais avez vous déjà réfléchi à l'impact du bruit dans vos décisions et celles des autres? Le bruit, c'est un élément qui peut être intérieur ou extérieur mais qui est souvent accidentel et qui impacte, de manière beaucoup plus importante qu'on ne pourrait le penser, les décisions. Comme l'indique le synopsis du livre, imaginez par exemple 2 médecins dans une même ville qui donne des diagnostics différents à des patients identiques. Bien sur, des biais peuvent être en jeux mais aussi une équipe de foot qui perd, une chaleur inhabituelle, une faim qui tiraille le ventre…tous ces éléments ont des impacts importants et sont des variables dans des jugements qui devraient être similaires. Mais alors qu'elle place pour l'intuition? Est-ce vrai pour tous les types de décisions? Heureusement, il existe des manières d'éviter ces biais et ce bruit et Olivier nous raconte comment nous nous trompons mais aussi comment prendre de meilleures décisions.

What’s Your Emergency
FDNY Deputy Cheif Vincent Dunn's definition of "acceptable loss of life"

What’s Your Emergency

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 32:38


FDNY veteran Vincent Dunn has forgotten more fires than you'll ever see. He has published articles, guidelines and books describing things you study for your promotional exam. The man eats, breathes and keeps fire in his life. So what happens when he posts something online about acceptable loss of life at "vacant building fires"? WYE takes notice.Dunn recently posted about firefighters risking their lives at "vacant" structures involved in fire and that the deaths of squatters inside is acceptable because, in words he posted online elsewhere, "he probably started the fire, F*** him." Dunn has since posted more descriptive versions of this opinion but when this hit the fire webs it, well, ignited a firestorm of comments! (Insert Fozzie Bear meme here).This week Justin, a slightly less experienced fire fighter of 30 years and our law enforcement expert Jason discuss when we risk a lot to save a lot and what we think of the extremes of Dunn's comments and what he was probably getting at with a burst of firehouse language. And, is that acceptable for someone of his stature or should we be glad this conversation has taken on a life of its own?This week we debate:If cancel culture has reached Vincent Dunn's Fire BattlespaceWhy Firefighters and Officers should be reading Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast & SlowIf a tax payer needs to be involved for fire EMS or Police to get involvedWhat happened to Justin's studio headphonesSupport the show

Lexman Artificial
Vitrines: Pleasures and Perils of Glass with Daniel Kahneman In

Lexman Artificial

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2022 5:21


Daniel Kahneman, one of the world's foremost psychological researchers and philosophers, discusses his latest book - "Vitrines: Pleasures and Perils of Glass" - exploring the various pleasures and dangers of looking at art in its various forms.

JeffMara Paranormal Podcast
Atheist Researcher's Spiritual Transformation, Synchronicities & More!

JeffMara Paranormal Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2022 69:24


Podcast guest 534 is Mark Gober and during this podcast we talked about consciousness, NDEs aliens, psychics and more. Mark is the author of "An End to Upside Down Thinking" (2018), which was awarded the IPPY award for best science book of 2019. He is also the author of "An End to Upside Down Living" (2020), "An End to Upside Down Liberty" (2021), and "An End to Upside Down Contact" (2022); and he is the host of the podcast "Where Is My Mind?" (2019). Additionally, he serves on the board of Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell's Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment. Previously, Gober was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists. Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected a captain of Princeton's Division I tennis team. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/jeffrey-s-reynolds/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/jeffrey-s-reynolds/support

Conscious Chatter with Kestrel Jenkins
S06 Episode 276 | Fashion psychology, contextualizing our buying behaviors amidst today's *speed* & how shopping is not equal to happiness

Conscious Chatter with Kestrel Jenkins

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 54:49


In episode 276, Kestrel welcomes Dr. Dion Terrelonge, a chartered psychologist, to the show. A researcher and stylist, Dion's work explores the connection between clothes and human expression. “We live so much of our lives in clothing and we experience the highest points and the lowest points of our lives often in clothing. So, I really do think the stories and the relationships are there, but what has happened, I believe, is with fast fashion and online shopping, is because there is so much clothing being pumped out, this endless conveyor belt of clothes, that we don't really have as much time to build relationships with our clothing.” -Dion When you think about shopping, what feelings come up for you?  One emotion that tends to surface for a lot of us is HAPPINESS. We have come to a place where we often align the act of shopping with a state of happiness.  I mean, I can definitely understand the alignment between shopping and emotions. As Dion reminds us, there have been a lot of narratives that have reinforced this – statements like *retail therapy* or thinking of shopping as a fun form of entertainment. I can point to many instances in my past where buying something was absolutely connected to wanting to make myself feel better, to wanting to find joy through the act of buying something.  But this alignment so many of us have – that shopping = happiness – is problematic in so many ways and in the end, isn't accurate.  Dion, a chartered psychologist, sheds light on the arc of happiness or self determination theory. She reminds us that while some of the elements that intersect with shopping may bring us happiness, the act of buying stuff isn't it.  Maybe the time you spend with friends while shopping makes you happy. Maybe putting on a garment that was handed over to you from your mom makes you happy. Maybe owning and embracing your personal style makes you happy. But buying another item isn't it. Throughout our conversation, Dion also helps contextualize a lot about our shopping behaviors, especially when it comes to the speed of today's buying culture, so we can find ways to become more consciously engaged in our own lives. Quotes & links from the conversation: “Tackling fast fashion must be our next global battle” in Big Issue; article Dion was featured in “This is what actually happens to your brain when you shop online” in Stylist; article Dion was featured in Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman, book that Dion mentions Dion's reel about the Peak-End Rule “We're just really living in an era of living beyond our means.” (45:25) Additional pieces Dion has contributed to: ‘We live our lives in clothes' | The British Psychological Society Red Or White? How My Wedding Dress Choice Is Affecting My Thoughts On Identity | British Vogue How fashion's erratic sizing is fuelling a clothing waste crisis | Dazed What happens to our brains when we shop online? | stylist.co.uk What Does Your Jewelry Say About You? | PORTER How to talk to your friends about sustainable fashion | HURR Dion's Website > Follow Dion on Instagram >

On Wisdom
48: A Joyous Journey from Black-and-White to Grey (with Tom Gilovich)

On Wisdom

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 48:26


Is "the spectrum" a more helpful way to think about the world than "categories"? Tom Gilovich joins Igor and Charles to discuss the perils of black-and-white thinking, the evolving data on the hot hand phenomenon, the science of regret, why foxes are wiser than hedgehogs, and the freedom that comes from learning that we are of less interest to other people than we think. Igor considers the limits of psychological nudging in tackling society's structural problems, Tom shares the perspective that leads him to be so unrelentingly joyful, and Charles learns that even scientists have to work hard to avoid being typecast. Welcome to Episode 48. Special Guest: Tom Gilovich.

Social Science Bites
Gerd Gigerenzer on Decision Making

Social Science Bites

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 22:44


Quite often the ideas of ‘risk' and of ‘uncertainty' get bandied about interchangeably, but there's a world of difference between them and it matters greatly when that distinction gets lost. That's a key message from psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer, who has created an impressive case for both understanding the distinction and then acting appropriately based on the distinction. “A situation with risk,” he tells interviewer David Edmonds in this Social Science Bites podcast, “is one where you basically know everything. More precisely, you know everything that can happen in the future … you know the consequences and you know the probabilities.” It is, as Bayesian decision theorist Jimmie Savage called it, “a small world.” As an example, Gigerenzer takes us a spin on a roulette wheel – you may lose your money on a low-probability bet, but all the possible options were known in advance. Uncertainty, on the other hand, means that all future possible events aren't known, nor are their probabilities or their consequences. Rounding back to the roulette wheel, under risk all possibilities are constrained to the ball landing on a number between 1 and 36. “Under uncertainty, 37 can happen,” he jokes. “Most situations in which we make decisions,” says Gigerenzer, “involve some sort of uncertainty.” Dealing with risk versus dealing with uncertainty requires different approaches. With risk, all you need is calculation. With uncertainty, “calculation may help you to some degree, but there is no way to calculate the optimal situation.” Humans nonetheless have tools to address uncertainty. Four he identifies are heuristics, intuition, finding people to trust, and adopting narratives to sustain you. In this podcast, he focuses on heuristics, those mental shortcuts and rules of thumb that often get a bad rap. “Social science,” he says, “should take uncertainty seriously, and heuristics seriously, and then we have a key to the real world.” When asked, Gigerenzer lauds Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky for putting “the concept of heuristics back on the table.” But he disagrees with their fast-slow thinking model that gives quick, so-called System 1 thinking less primacy than more deliberative thinking. “We have in the social sciences a kind of rhetoric that heuristics are always second best and maximizing would be always better. That's wrong. It is only true in a world of risk; it is not correct in a world of uncertainty, where by definition you can't find the best solution simply because you don't know the future.” Researchers, he concludes, should “take uncertainty seriously and ask the question, ‘In what situations do these heuristics that people use (and experts use) actually work?' and not just say, ‘They must be wrong because they are a heuristic.'” Gigerenzer is the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam and partner at Simply Rational – The Institute for Decisions. Before that he directed the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and at the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research. His books include general titles like Calculated Risks, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious, and Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, as well as academic books such as Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Rationality for Mortals, Simply Rational, and Bounded Rationality. Awards for his work include the American Association for the Advancement of Science Prize for Behavioral Science Research for the best article in the behavioral sciences in 1991, the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences for The probabilistic revolution, the German Psychology Award, and the Communicator Award of the German Research Foundation. He was a 2014 fellow at the SAGE Center for the Study of the Mind University of California, Santa Barbara (SAGE Publishing is the parent of Social Science Space) and a fellow of the Association for Psychological Science in 2008.

The Courtenay Turner Podcast
Ep 139: An End to the Upsidedown with Mark Gober

The Courtenay Turner Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 173:02


In this episode, Courtenay welcomes Mark Gober to the show to discuss the concepts of his books surrounding human consciousness. One of the biggest battles we face today is the hidden agendas (such as mass mind control) behind “well-intentioned” movements. In this philosophical conversation, Courtenay and Mark dive into New Age concepts that coincide with virtue signaling, the spiritual component of consciousness as well as our ability to access it, and the unknown potential of our psyche. This fascinating topic is sure to open your mind to new realms of possibility and individuality as we aim to shift power back into the hands of the people! Mark Gober is the author of An End to Upside Down Thinking, which was awarded the IPPY award for best science book of 2019. He is also the author of An End to Upside Down Living, An End to Upside Down Liberty, and An End to Upside Down Contact. He is the host of the podcast Where Is My Mind? and additionally serves on the board of the Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment. Previously, Gober was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists. Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected a captain of Princeton's Division I tennis team. Episode Resources: Dr. David Hawkins Books Your Soul's Plan by Robert Shwartz https://mises.org  Connect with Mark: Website: https://markgober.com  Books: https://markgober.com/books/  Podcast: Where Is My Mind? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lexman Artificial
Daniel Kahneman on Thinking, Thinking, and More Thinking

Lexman Artificial

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2022 3:39


Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning psychologist and renowned quantitative analyst, talks about how he applies the principles of behavioural science to analyze news and markets.

The Nonlinear Library
LW - Bucket Errors by CFAR!Duncan

The Nonlinear Library

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2022 16:13


Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Bucket Errors, published by CFAR!Duncan on July 29, 2022 on LessWrong. Author's note: There is a preexisting standalone essay on bucket errors by CFAR cofounder Anna Salamon available here. The version in the handbook is similar, but has enough disoverlap that it seemed worth including it rather than just adding the standalone post to the sequence. Epistemic status: Mixed The concept of question substitution, which underlies and informs this chapter, is one that is well-researched and well-documented, particularly in the work of Daniel Kahneman. The idea of “bucket errors” is one generated by CFAR staff and has no formal research behind it, but it has resonated with a majority of our alumni and seems like a reasonable model for a common class of human behaviors. Humans don't simply experience reality. We interpret it. There's some evidence that this is true “all the way down,” for literally everything we perceive. The predictive processing model of cognition posits that even very basic sensations like sight and touch are heavily moderated by a set of top-down control systems, predictions, and assumptions—that even as the photons are hitting our receptors, we're on some level anticipating them, already attempting to define them and categorize them and organize them into sensible clusters. It's not just a swirl of green and brown, it's a tree—and we almost can't stop ourselves from seeing the tree, and go back to something like unmediated perception. CFAR's concept of “buckets” is a similar idea on a broader scale. The claim is that reality is delivering to you a constant stream of experiences, and that—most of the time—you are categorizing those experiences into pre-existing mental buckets. Those buckets have titles like “do they like me?” and “is this a good idea?” and “what's my boss like?” and “Chinese food?” If you think of your mental architecture as being made up of a large number of beliefs, then the buckets contain the piles of evidence that lie behind and support those beliefs. Or, to put it another way, you know whether or not you like Chinese food because you can look into the bucket containing all of your memories and experiences of Chinese food and sum them up. As another example, let's say Sally is a young elementary school student with a belief that she is a good writer. That belief didn't come out of nowhere—it started with observations that (say) whenever she turned in a paper, her teacher would smile and put a star-shaped sticker on it. At first, observations like that probably fell into all sorts of different buckets, because Sally didn't have a bucket for “am I a good writer?” But at some point, some pattern-detecting part of her brain made the link between several different experiences, and Sally (probably unconsciously) started to track the hypothesis “I am good at writing.” She formed a “good at writing” bucket, and started putting more and more of her experiences into it. The problem (from CFAR's perspective) is that that isn't the only label on that bucket. Bucket errors One day, Sally turned in a paper and it came back without a gold star. “Sally, this is wonderful!” says Sally's teacher. “But I notice that you misspelled the word ‘ocean,' here.” “No, I didn't!” says Sally, somewhat forcefully. Her teacher is a bit apologetic, but persists. “Ocean is spelled with a ‘c' rather than a ‘sh'... remember when we learned the rule that if there's an ‘e' after the ‘c', that changes its sound—” “No, it's spelled oshun, I saw it in a book—” “Look,” says the teacher, gently but firmly. “I know it hurts to notice when we make mistakes. But it's important to see them, so that you can do better next time. Here, let's get the dictionary and check—” “No!” shouts Sally, as she bursts into tears and runs away to hide. As she vanishes into the closet, the teach...

Ascension of the Chessmen
#131 - Voluntarism & The Non-Aggression Principle w/ Mark Gober

Ascension of the Chessmen

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2022 69:45


Mark Gober is the author of An End to Upside Down Thinking (2018), which was awarded the IPPY award for best science book of 2019. He is also the author of An End to Upside Down Living (2020), An End to Upside Down Liberty (2021), and An End to Upside Down Contact (2022); and he is the host of the podcast Where Is My Mind? (2019). Additionally, he serves on the board of the Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment. Previously, Gober was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists. Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected a captain of Princeton's Division I tennis team.https://markgober.com/https://instagram.com/markgober_author?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Science Friday
Kahneman on ‘Noise,' CHIPS Act, Great Salt Lake Dryness, Hybrid Toads. July 22, 2022, Part 2

Science Friday

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2022 47:20 Very Popular


When Times Get Tough, These Toads Make Hybrid Babies Scientists have long thought that when two animals from two different species mate, it's a colossal error and the end of the road for the mismatched couple. It's called interspecies breeding, and many hybrid offspring often end up sterile, such as zonkeys —a cross between a zebra and donkey. Or they can develop serious health problems, like ligers and tigons. One biologist even went as far to call interspecies breeding “the grossest blunder in sexual preference.” But is breeding across species lines always a dead end? One critter —the plains spadefoot toad—shows us that maybe it isn't. In fact, it can give them a leg up in survival. Katherine Wu, staff writer for The Atlantic, talks with Ira about the complicated sex lives of the female plains spadefoot toads, the trade-offs females make when choosing a mate, and why hybridizing critters may not be such a biological abomination after all.     Major Semiconductor Support Bill Passes First Hurdle Earlier this week, the Senate voted in favor of the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act. If passed, the bill would provide more than $50 billion to companies that will build semiconductor factories here in the United States. Semiconductors are versatile materials—such as silicon—often used in electronics and in microchips. But the bulk of semiconductors, known as “chips,” are produced in other countries, mostly Taiwan. If the CHIPS Act is passed, the government will fund tech companies to build factories at home instead. Although the bill still has to go through the House and be signed by President Biden, this Senate vote is still a monumental moment in the tech world. Jesús del Alamo, a professor of electrical engineering at MIT, joins Ira to talk about why this bill is such a big deal, and what's at stake.   Drought Could Raise Toxic Dust Around Utah's Great Salt Lake Utah's Great Salt Lake holds a unique ecological niche as the western hemisphere's largest saltwater lake. The body of water is three to five times saltier than the ocean, with salinity ranging between 12 and 28 percent. According to the Great Salt Lake Institute, millions of birds from more than 250 species rely on the lake yearly, alongside a diverse variety of plants and animals. Like many bodies of water in the U.S., climate change is affecting the status quo in the Great Salt Lake. The water is drying up at an alarming rate, reaching its lowest level in recorded history this month. Now, researchers warn that toxic dust could increase as water levels continue to drop. Joining Ira to discuss the Great Salt Lake's ecosystem and future is Bonnie Baxter, director of the Great Salt Lake Institute and biology professor at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah.   A Flaw in Human Judgment: How Making Decisions Isn't As Objective As You Think If two people are presented with the same set of facts, they will often draw different conclusions. For example, judges often dole out different sentences for the same case, which can lead to an unjust system. This unwanted variability in judgments in which we expect uniformity is what psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls “noise.” The importance of thoughtful decision-making has come in stark relief during the pandemic and in the events leading up to the January 6th insurrection. Ira talks with Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman about the role of ‘noise' in human judgment, his long career studying cognitive biases, and how systematic decision-making can result in fewer errors. Kahneman is the co-author of “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment,” along with Oliver Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein, now available in paperback.   Transcripts for each segment will be available the week after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.  

The Past Lives Podcast
Paranormal Stories Ep23

The Past Lives Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2022 22:02 Very Popular


Episode 23 of Paranormal Stories. This week the books are 'Changed in a Flash: One Woman's Near-Death Experience and Why a Scholar Thinks It Empowers Us All' by Elizabeth Krohn and Jeffrey Kripal and 'An End to Upside Down Contact: UFOs, Aliens, and Spirits—and Why Their Ongoing Interaction with Human Civilization Matters' By Mark Gober.Mark GoberAre we alone? The answer, according to Mark Gober's An End to Upside Down Contact, is a resounding NO. Humans exist among a variety of advanced species, sometimes identified as aliens, spirits, beings of light, and beyond. In fact, our civilization seems to be regularly influenced by such nonhuman intelligences, even if we're not always aware of it. Near-death experiences and other phenomena of consciousness reveal that some species exist in other dimensions that our eyes cannot ordinarily see. Similarly, UFOs and alien abductions—which were examined by the former head of psychiatry at Harvard—provide additional evidence that we are not alone. As strange as it might sound, none of this is new: contact with nonhuman intelligence is likely a part of humanity's ancient history. This isn't just some “fringe” phenomenon, either. We seem to exist within a multispecies, multidimensional battle between Good and Evil, and our future as a civilization is at stake. Buckle up for a wild—and paradigm-shifting—ride.BioMark Gober is the author of "An End to Upside Down Thinking" (2018), which was awarded the IPPY award for best science book of 2019. He is also the author of "An End to Upside Down Living" (2020), "An End to Upside Down Liberty" (2021), and "An End to Upside Down Contact" (2022); and he is the host of the podcast "Where Is My Mind?" (2019). Additionally, he serves on the board of Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell's Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment.Previously, Gober was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists.Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected a captain of Princeton's Division I tennis team.https://www.amazon.com/End-Upside-Down-Contact-Spirits-ebook/dp/B0B43TH5JZ/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1657892123&sr=8-1https://markgober.com/Elizabeth KrohnA fascinating first-hand account of an awakening into a psychic consciousness, paired with a revolutionary analysis by a respected professor of religion. When Elizabeth Greenfield Krohn got out of her car with her two young sons in the parking lot of her synagogue on a late afternoon in September 1988, she couldn't have anticipated she would within seconds be struck by lightning and have a near-death experience. She felt herself transported to a garden and engaging in a revelatory conversation with a spiritual being. When she recovered, her most fundamental understandings of what the world is and how it works had been completely transformed. She was “changed in a flash,” suddenly able to interact with those who had died and have prescient dreams predicting news events. She came to believe that some early traumatic and abusive experiences had played a part in preparing her for this experience. Told in matter-of-fact language, the first half of this book is the story of Krohn's journey, and the second is an interpretation and analysis by respected professor of religion Jeffrey J. Kripal. He places Krohn's experience in the context of religious traditions and proposes the groundbreaking idea that we are shaping our own experiences in the future by how we engage with near-death experiences in the present. Changed in a Flash is not about proving a story, but about carving out space for serious discussion of this phenomenon.https://www.amazon.com/Changed-Flash-Near-Death-Experience-Empowers-ebook/dp/B079D8T8BY/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1657890862&sr=1-1https://www.pastliveshypnosis.co.uk/https://www.patreon.com/alienufopodcasthttps://www.patreon.com/pastlivespodcast

The $100 MBA Show
MBA2093 Must Read: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

The $100 MBA Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2022 17:01 Very Popular


Why do you make the decisions you make? How? It's a huge question, with huge implications for how you run your business. Today, we dive into Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. This book by economist, psychologist, and nobel laureate Kahneman unpacks the mechanics of decision-making — and how to better optimize it. If that […] The post MBA2093 Must Read: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman appeared first on The $100 MBA.

The Alien UFO Podcast
The Alien UFO Podcast Ep29 Mark Gober

The Alien UFO Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2022 62:32 Very Popular


This week I am talking to Mark gober about his book 'An End to Upside Down Contact: UFOs, Aliens, and Spirits—and Why Their Ongoing Interaction with Human Civilization Matters'.Are we alone? The answer, according to Mark Gober's An End to Upside Down Contact, is a resounding NO. Humans exist among a variety of advanced species, sometimes identified as aliens, spirits, beings of light, and beyond. In fact, our civilization seems to be regularly influenced by such nonhuman intelligences, even if we're not always aware of it. Near-death experiences and other phenomena of consciousness reveal that some species exist in other dimensions that our eyes cannot ordinarily see. Similarly, UFOs and alien abductions—which were examined by the former head of psychiatry at Harvard—provide additional evidence that we are not alone. As strange as it might sound, none of this is new: contact with nonhuman intelligence is likely a part of humanity's ancient history. This isn't just some “fringe” phenomenon, either. We seem to exist within a multispecies, multidimensional battle between Good and Evil, and our future as a civilization is at stake. Buckle up for a wild—and paradigm-shifting—ride.BioMark Gober is the author of "An End to Upside Down Thinking" (2018), which was awarded the IPPY award for best science book of 2019. He is also the author of "An End to Upside Down Living" (2020), "An End to Upside Down Liberty" (2021), and "An End to Upside Down Contact" (2022); and he is the host of the podcast "Where Is My Mind?" (2019). Additionally, he serves on the board of Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell's Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment.Previously, Gober was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists.Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected a captain of Princeton's Division I tennis team.https://www.amazon.com/End-Upside-Down-Contact-Spirits-ebook/dp/B0B43TH5JZ/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1657892123&sr=8-1https://markgober.com/https://www.pastliveshypnosis.co.uk/https://www.patreon.com/alienufopodcast

School Sucks: Higher Education For Self-Liberation

The Essential School Sucks, #24 of 50 Theme Three: What It Means To Be Educated We move from self-directed learning to its outcome: critical thinking. Today I'll discuss one of the MOST IMPORTANT aspects of it: our persistent uncritical thoughts and feelings. (November, 2016) What is wrong with John Oliver? What's wrong with Donald Trump? What's wrong the anti-Trump anti-reality protestors? What was wrong with me the other day when I suddenly felt impelled to hatch a conspiracy theory about Trump's election being part of a "larger plan" with little evidence? What's wrong with an alarming number of the interactions in School Sucks Facebook group lately? Political thinking is often quick thinking. Thinking quickly is an evolution-driven feature that was once necessary for our survival. But in a vastly more complex world than the one our species grew up in, this mode of thought is often dangerous and destructive. Look around. Sometimes some people, even libertarians, use mental shortcuts to arrive at faulty conclusions, and then engage in a process of rationalization for those conclusions. In short, we'll explore observations of the left and pro-Trump right over the last year with the valuable lessons from Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking, Fast and Slow. The goal is utilize examples of thinking errors to avoid making them ourselves, often without even noticing. Get ALL episodes in this series: HERE (https://www.patreon.com/posts/speed-and-full-69222453) The Ideas Into Action Summit (https://sspuniversity.com/ideasintoaction/) The downloadable version of The Ideas Into Action Summit is now available. Use the coupon code independence to can get it for 30% off now until July 5th Learn more here (https://sspuniversity.com/ideasintoaction/). Our Partners https://files.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads/images/b/b9f98e30-82d3-4781-8400-880c6dc8086f/2gtm0QVk.png Get The Book For Free (https://discoverpraxis.com/schoolsuckspodcast/) Please Support School Sucks School Sucks was one of the longest running liberty-minded podcasts on the web, and the only one completely devoted to the issue of education (versus public school and college). Your support keeps the show alive, which keeps us at the top of the options for education podcasts and leads to new people discovering our work. Please help us continue to spread this important message further! One-Time Donation Options:Paypal/Venmo Crypto Addresses:DASH XcZfPP6GZGVo9VKViNBVJZja5JVxZDB229ETHEREUM 0x3c5504CE3401C028832173506fa30BD4db4b7D35LITECOIN LKNp24f5wwvZ2QzeDbvxXgBxyVwi1yXnu2BITCOIN 1KhwY836cfSGCK5aaGFv8Q7PHMgghFJn1UBITCOIN CASH 1AmqLVxjw3Lp9KT5ckfvsqfN2Hn3B1hCWSZCASH t1by1ZGJ63LoLSjXy27ooJtipf4wMr7qbu4 Recurring Options: Support Us On PATREONYou support our mission, and you want to help us continue to reach new people with our message and media. Your contribution helps us maintain presence, and to further build the legacy of School Sucks Project. And please bookmark and use this link for your Amazon shopping: Shop With Us Our Private Community: https://files.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads/images/b/b9f98e30-82d3-4781-8400-880c6dc8086f/fNnDUPqb.png Visit The Uni-iversity (https://sspuniversity.com/) Originally November 20th, 2016 As “[PODCAST #461] Speed and Politics (Part One) - Rules For Radicals"

SiKutuBuku
Cacat dalam Penilaian Manusia | Noise

SiKutuBuku

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2022 10:04


Saya membahas buku Noise karya Daniel Kahneman. Buku ini membahas adanya kelemahan dalam penilaian manusia. Bayangkan kalau ada dua dokter di kota yang sama memberikan diagnosa berbeda bagi pasien yang sama atau dua hakim di pengadilan yang sama memberikan putusan yang berbeda bagi seseorang yang melakukan kejahatan yang sama. Bayangkan kalau dokter atau hakim itu membuat keputusan yang berbeda tergantung pada apakah itu di pagi atau siang hari, atau karena di hari Senin atau di hari Rabu. Ini adalah contoh dari noise, variasi dalam penilaian seseorang yang harusnya sama. Fenomena ini sering terjadi di sekitar kita, di mana ada penilaian, maka akan ada noise. Namun sayangnya, banyak orang seringkali tidak sadar. Padahal, dengan mulai menyadarinya dan membuat beberapa langkah perbaikan, kita bisa membuat keputusan yang lebih baik.

The Wardroom Podcast
ADM Samuel J. Paparo - Sine Qua Non

The Wardroom Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2022 41:04


We are joined by Admiral Samuel J. Paparo, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, for a discussion on the threat the fleet faces, why the Engineering Duty Officer community is the Sine Qua Non of warfighter support, and the importance of mission command.   Book Recommendations: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein The Fleet at Flood Tide: America at Total War in the Pacific. 1944-1945 by James D. Hornfischer, Pete Larkin, et al. The Bomber Mafia: A Dream. A Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War by Malcom Gladwell

Passion for the Paranormal
An End to Upside Down Thinking & Contact with Mark Gober

Passion for the Paranormal

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2022 65:13


Episode 104: On this episode, distinguished Princeton Graduate and author of An End to Upside Down Thinking: Dispelling the Myth That the Brain Produces Consciousness and An End to Upside Down Contact: UFOs, Aliens and Spirits-and Why Their Ongoing Interaction with Human Civilization Matters. Mark is also the host of the podcast "Where Is My Mind?" (2019). Additionally, he serves on the board of the Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell's Institute of Noetic Sciences and the School of Wholeness and Enlightenment.Previously, Mark was a partner at Sherpa Technology Group in Silicon Valley and worked as an investment banking analyst with UBS in New York. He has been named one of IAM's Strategy 300: The World's Leading Intellectual Property Strategists. Gober graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he wrote an award-winning thesis on Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize–winning “Prospect Theory” and was elected as captain of Princeton's Division I Tennis team.Mark talked about the difference between the materialst view of consciousness versus the much more expansive view of consciousness that says that says that consciousness is fundamental to everything. Mark also talked about how Near Death Experiences, the UFO phemonena and the paranormal relate to this expansive view of consciousness residing outside the brain. To find out more about Mark and his work you can visit his website at, markgober.com. Music by: Sergey Cheremisinov

Growth Mindset Podcast
Find your people

Growth Mindset Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2022 14:37


If you want to go fast go alone. If you want to go far go together.Eccie Newton is the founder of Karma Cans and Karma Kitchen. She has raised over £350 million pounds for her business and learnt a lot of lessons the hard way.One of the biggest keys to her success is having the right team around her to execute on her ideas. She has a lot of strengths but is also aware of her many weaknesses. One of the best things anyone can do for themselves is work with the right people that complement their own strengths.This episode is master class on knowing yourself and finding the right people to complement you.---Connect with Eccie:Karma Kitchen Karma Can LinkedIn Connect with Sam:Join the conversation on the social podcast app - PodvineSam's newsletter on creativity and entrepreneurship - Explosive Thinking Sam's podcast on books - Wiser Than Yesterday Support the Show - Patreon If you enjoyed the podcast please subscribe and rate it. And of course, share with your friends!---Show sponsorsAthletic greensGet a free years supply of Vitamin D a 5 travel sachets when you make you first order.Athleticgreens.com/GrowthMindset---Timestamps01:24 - Mindset you learn with dyslexia03:17 - Importance of great teams05:40 - Parrallels between investing and hiring06:23 - The issues with using your gut08:07 - What investors look for09:10 - Athletic greens10:22 - Hiring strategy Koru Kids uses12:03 - Walmart puzzle building strategy12:50 - Round up Don't Forget to like, comment, share and subscribe See podvine.com/privacy-policy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Richard Blackaby Leadership Podcast</