Podcasts about The Big Short

Live from the HOOD Summit in Houston, Guy & Dan sit down with Robinhood's Steph Guild, Porter Collins, Vincent Daniel to make sense of a market sitting near record highs despite a war, $95 oil and a 10-year yield pushing past 5%. The panel digs into horrific market breadth and the passive flows propping up a handful of mega-caps. They discuss why private credit may be the canary in the coal mine for the AI buildout, and whether Nvidia's lending to its own customers makes it look more like a bank than a chipmaker. They also cover the case for energy after years of underinvestment, opportunities in Latin America ahead of Brazil's election, the debasement trade in gold and Bitcoin, and whether AI will ultimately create or destroy jobs. The episode closes with audience questions on agent trading, cybersecurity risk and AI's impact on healthcare. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Checkout 22V Advisory Direct: https://22vad.com/Host Danny Moses welcomes back 22V Research founder and CEO Dennis DeBusschere to discuss his prior market calls, including the S&P 500 reaching 7,800, and to unpack Kevin Warsh's first Fed rate hike since 2023. DeBusschere argues the hike is justified by unexpectedly strong growth, tight unemployment, and inflation risks, and explains how higher 10-year yields can coexist with tight credit spreads as markets price stronger growth driven in part by massive AI-related CapEx. They discuss Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to influence long-term yields and why policy can't overpower fundamentals for long, plus the role of elevated oil from the Iran war. DeBusschere outlines positioning: prefer AI beneficiaries and software/services gaining margins, be cautious on consumers, transports, and financials, and buy housing if AI CapEx slows. They also cover US midterms, Brazil's election dynamics, and 22V's launch of 22V Advisory Direct.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Porter Collins, the investor portrayed in The Big Short and a former member of Steve Eisman's team at FrontPoint Partners, joins Mining Stock Daily for a wide-ranging conversation on gold, mining equities, inflation, the Fed, fiscal dominance and where he sees opportunity—and risk—across today's markets.Porter explains how a career built around financials and short selling ultimately led him toward gold, commodities and mining stocks. His thesis starts with the capital cycle: after more than a decade of underinvestment, mining remains starved for capital just as physical demand and monetary uncertainty are increasing. Unlike the 2011 cycle, many leading gold producers now have stronger balance sheets, significant free cash flow and management teams that have remained disciplined despite record margins. Trevor and Porter also dig into the Fed's latest rate hike and why gold's resilience alongside higher Treasury yields may signal an important change in the macro regime. Porter argues that persistent fiscal deficits have increasingly limited the Fed's options and that continued currency debasement makes owning hard assets less about speculation and more about preserving purchasing power. The conversation moves into potential hidden risks across private credit, commercial real estate and AI-related debt, including whether today's excesses rhyme with previous financial cycles. Porter also explains why massive AI investment could ultimately result in destroyed capital—but still create enormous physical demand for commodities like copper and energy. As he puts it: you can print money, but you can't print a copper mine. Finally, Porter lays out how he actually invests in miners. The discussion covers his preference for strong balance sheets, disciplined management teams, growing production and free cash flow, why Agnico Eagle, Alamos Gold and DPM Metals fit that framework, and how he uses Dundee Corp. for exposure further down the exploration and development curve. ______Terrahutton empowers junior mining companies to secure investment with immersive, interactive, and visually striking storytelling. Learn more about the Terrahutton platform ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HERE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠______This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by... ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Revival Gold ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vizsla Silver⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Equinox Gold⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Integra Resources ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

AIUC first got our attention with the NFDG backing, and have just announced a $40M series A today, with the most impressive industry advisor list we may have ever seen for an early startup behind AIUC-1, their agent standard backed by real insurance:From being Anthropic's first product hire to building the standards, testing, and insurance infrastructure meant to make frontier AI deployable, Rune Kvist is betting that the biggest constraint on AI adoption won't be capability it will be trust. In this episode, the AIUC cofounder joins swyx and Vibhu to announce a new $40M round and explain why companies like Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, and ElevenLabs are increasingly confronting a problem that gets harder as AI gets better: who is responsible when autonomous systems fail?We go deep on AIUC-1, the emerging standard for agent security, safety, and reliability; how AI agents are stress-tested for jailbreaks, hallucinations, and data leaks; and why Rune thinks standards and insurance could become critical infrastructure for AI. We also discuss the growing trust gap between governments and frontier labs, AI-enabled cyber and biological risks, why every model can ultimately be jailbroken, what happens when a $20 coding agent causes $200M of damage, whether AI engineers should be certified, and why even after AGI there may be one job the labs can never do themselves: be their own watchdog.We discuss:* Why risk, liability, and trust may become the binding constraint on AI adoption* Rune's path from reading the Scaling Laws paper to joining Anthropic in its earliest days* What Anthropic understood about scaling, compute, and the future years before it became obvious* Why Waymo illustrates the gap between AI capability and real-world deployment* AIUC's $40M round and work with Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, ElevenLabs, and other frontier AI companies* AIUC-1: a standard for AI agent security, safety, and reliability* How agents are tested for jailbreaks, hallucinations, and data leakage* Why most AI companies optimize the happy path without seriously stress-testing adversarial cases* Why AI standards may need to update every quarter instead of every decade* The emerging trust gap between frontier AI labs and governments* Cybersecurity, child safety, biological weapons, and the expanding frontier-model risk surface* Why standards and insurance may need to evolve together* How Lloyd's of London can insure AI systems and bring trust to enterprise deployment* What happens if a $20 Cursor subscription contributes to a $200M plane crash* The Air Canada chatbot case and how AI failures are beginning to clarify legal liability* Why copyright may be one of the hardest AI risks to insure* Evals, mechanistic interpretability, monitoring, and models becoming aware they're being tested* The impossible CISO mandate: adopt AI fast, but don't let anything go wrong* Why robotics will make AI liability dramatically more consequential* Whether AI engineers should have Level 1, 2, and 3 certifications* AIUC's roadmap across agents, frontier models, robotics, and universal red teaming* Why AGI could become a question of national sovereignty* Why the labs can never fully serve as their own watchdogs* The Big Short problem: how do you stop competing watchdogs from racing standards to the bottom?Rune Kvist* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/runekvist/* X: https://x.com/RuneKvistAIUC* https://aiuc.comTimestamps00:00:00 AIUC's $40M Round and the Risk Bottleneck for AI00:01:07 From Scaling Laws to Early Anthropic00:07:58 Why Trust, Not Capability, Could Limit AI Adoption00:12:19 Founding AIUC and Building AIUC-100:18:52 How AI Agents Are Audited and Stress-Tested00:25:26 Frontier Models, Government, and the AI Trust Gap00:33:32 Cyber, Child Safety, and AI-Enabled Biological Risk00:38:14 Why Standards and Insurance Belong Together00:41:45 What Does an AI Insurance Policy Actually Cover?00:50:44 The $20 Cursor Subscription and the $200M Plane Crash00:53:53 AI Liability, Monitoring, and Earning Enterprise Trust00:56:21 From AI Agents to Models to Robotics00:58:29 Copyright, Adverse Selection, and AI Insurance01:03:28 Evals, Mechanistic Interpretability, and Eval Awareness01:08:36 The Impossible Enterprise AI Mandate01:11:52 Prediction Markets vs. AI Audits01:14:43 Should AI Engineers Be Certified?01:19:10 AIUC's Roadmap, AGI, and Who Watches the Watchdogs?TranscriptIntroduction: AIUC, the $40M Series A, and Risk as the Adoption BottleneckSwyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we're in the studio with Rune from AIUC, the Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company, with our trusty co-host, Vibhu. Welcome.Rune Kvist [00:00:10]: Thank you. Thanks for having me. Thank you.Swyx [00:00:11]: What are you announcing today?Rune Kvist [00:00:12]: We have raised $40 million, led by Ribbit Capital and First Harmonic.Swyx [00:00:17]: You first came to my attention when Nat and Daniel invested in you guys. Is the story, like, pretty much the same? Like, what are you today versus what you thought you were back then?Rune Kvist [00:00:26]: When we raised our seed round, we had a hypothesis that at some point risk was going to hold down adoption. At that point in time, that felt kind of hypothetical, and I think that is now over. Clearly, the moment is now with Mythos and Fable. It's pretty obvious that literally the binding constraint on adoption is risk. And so for us, it feels like this is a natural continuation of the same hypothesis, but where previously it was speculation, now it feels like fact.Swyx [00:00:54]: And let's get a list of the customers that you're highlighting as part of your Series A.Rune Kvist [00:00:58]: Totally. Yeah. So we are now working with folks like Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, ElevenLabs.Swyx [00:01:05]: Yeah. Amazing. Congrats.Rune Kvist [00:01:06]: Thank you.Swyx [00:01:07]: So you were famously one of the first hires involved in GTM and product. I'm just kind of curious: what was your path into AI? Just recap.Rune's Path Into AI: Scaling Laws, Capital, and AnthropicRune Kvist [00:01:18]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:01:19]: Late 2021, I sold a company, my first company, an edtech company. I had a bit of time to think about what was next. I came across the Scaling Laws paper, and that just struck me like lightning. I was just like, “This is a big idea.” In short, the Scaling Laws paper just says the bigger the model, the smarter the model.Swyx [00:01:38]: So this is the Kaplan one, not the Chinchilla one?Rune Kvist [00:01:40]: Exactly, the Kaplan one.Swyx [00:01:42]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:01:42]: And the important thing that clicked for me there was, oh, now capital will understand this. If you put in more money, you get more money out, and so that will kick off a hype cycle. And so you get a sense of predictable returns, which is, in fact, what's played out. And so I just packed my bags. I'd never been to San Francisco. I'd never been there. I just packed my bags, flew out here to find the people who had written it. And at the time, they had just started a small lab called Anthropic. There were around 40 people at the time or so. Drank a bunch of coffee until I eventually got introduced to Dario. And at the time, they were wrestling with some of these questions of, like, should we deploy our models? Should we make revenue? How should we engage with the rest of the world? They'd just broken off from OpenAI, and it's been publicly reported that they were kind of concerned with how they were dealing with deployment. So they were wrestling with some of those questions. At this point, this is early fog of war, like early 2022. The hottest product at the time was, like, Jasper. Like, there's nothing out there. So where value was going to accrue, and what the different parts of the stack were going to be, were all open questions.Swyx [00:02:48]: I want to highlight to people, you ask these questions because you have a PPE background.Rune Kvist [00:02:52]: Yes.Swyx [00:02:52]: I actually was in Singapore in one of the sort of feeder programs for prepping people for PPE. So I had a tutor. We learned, you know, philosophy and politics and economics. But, like, I think your kind of background matters. Machine learning people who read the neural, Scaling Laws paper would not necessarily draw the same conclusions that you did. Whereas any capitalist would read that and go, “Holy s**t.”Rune Kvist [00:03:19]: Correct.Swyx [00:03:20]: Right?Rune Kvist [00:03:21]: Yes.Swyx [00:03:21]: Who tipped you onto that paper? Because it's not a paper that you normally read, right, like, in your circles?Rune Kvist [00:03:26]: Yeah. I think I'd actually, ever since AlphaGo, had some appreciation that AI was a big deal.Swyx [00:03:36]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:03:36]: But it kind of felt like it raised all these kind of interesting philosophical questions, but it was kind of not clear from afar where exactly that would go. But it was obvious enough that it was like, this is going to be a big thing if we find the kind of right mechanism to kind of get the techno-capital machine to work on this. But it was just not clear. And so I think there was some way in which, like, that became obvious, and also it wasn't as obvious at the time than it is now, right? Like, it was just like, wow, this is so interesting. But it still felt, coming from kind of a philosophy and economics background, it felt like if this turns out to be true, you're going to be wrestling with all of the big questions in society. Everything you've learned about politics gets thrown out of the window. Everything you've learned about economics at least gets challenged. And so what felt interesting was to be at that frontier that has ramifications across everything. So that's why I sought it out.Swyx [00:04:32]: I mean, clearly really good insight. For people who don't know, the PPE program is, like, where prime ministers are born. So then you end up meeting Dario.Rune Kvist [00:04:41]: Yep. First Dario, yeah.Swyx [00:04:43]: Yeah. Well, I mean, like, so did you get extra insights from talking with them that you didn't get from your original hypothesis?Anthropic's Early Conviction and the Scaling Laws Crystal BallRune Kvist [00:04:50]: If you read the Scaling Laws paper, you get this, like, very vague sketch of like, wow, this seems kind of important. There are some lines on a chart. This seems kind of important. And what I think the team at Anthropic had thought more about than anyone was like, what are the implications of this if you really play this out? And back then they had, kind of vision documents for what the world would look like in 2026, and they were kind of in vivid detail playing out how much compute is going to be needed, what the CapEx was going to look like, what some of the societal concerns were going to be, but also what is the amount of economic value coming out here? And so it kind of felt like they held a crystal ball that in hindsight turned out to just be dramatically correct. And they weren't holding it like they were obviously correct. They were just like, “Take this hypothesis really seriously.”Swyx [00:05:38]: Think it through, yeah.Rune Kvist [00:05:38]: And think it through in the same way as the kind of situational awareness that isSwyx [00:05:43]: Across the street.Rune Kvist [00:05:44]: Across the street.Swyx [00:05:44]: Your office, yeah. Oh my God, we're all living across the street in the same one square mile.Rune Kvist [00:05:50]: Correct. And that's now a couple of years old, but also people keep referencing it these particular weeks with Fable and Mythos, and it's like, wow, if you take this one idea seriously- For the Scaling Laws, a lot of things fall into place.Vibhu [00:06:03]: And keep in mind, at this point, this is the same team that did GPT-1, GPT-2, and GPT-3.Rune Kvist [00:06:08]: Correct.Vibhu [00:06:08]: Which is also, like, it's not just some experimentation. Like, this is a real model that we just scaled up.Rune Kvist [00:06:14]: And they had deep conviction in this idea: if you take a big blob of compute and data, it just wants to learn, and out of that will come smarter and smarter models. And all the particulars were not clear.Vibhu [00:06:26]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:06:27]: And all the implications were not clear. But their deep conviction in this, like, core thesis, and that was kind of dizzying. It was both phenomenally interesting and exciting, and also very quickly you get to, like, the world we know today will no longer be if this hypothesis holds. So it also just felt, like, important in some kind of grand sense.Vibhu [00:06:48]: What kind of shaped you there? So that was early 2022. Not only had GPT-1, GPT-2, and GPT-3 come out, but, you know, the amazing founders of Anthropic that have never split up, the only ones, they actually had the conviction to leave OpenAI, start their lab. You said there were about 40 people there. What was the time like there?Inside Early Anthropic: Mission, Deployment, and RiskRune Kvist [00:07:06]: It was kind of remarkably like what it looks like on the outside today. Extremely cohesive, extremely mission-oriented, and living in this tension between their two ideas, which is AI could both go really well and really bad, and we want to be part of building it. That creates astounding amounts of tension. And they were wrestling with this incentive challenge where they know they're in a race that they're in where you might get forced to cut corners, but it also felt very important to them to be at the forefront of technology. And all of those ideas were just present at that time. It kind of feels like that line has been just very clear, and I think kind of love them or hate them, they have really stuck to their guns. There's a core set of beliefs that they hold more deeply than most companies hold any beliefs.Vibhu [00:07:58]: Yeah. Fast-forward to today.Rune Kvist [00:08:00]: Yeah.Vibhu [00:08:00]: What does that lead us to AI underwriting company? What are you up to? What motivated you to start this?From Waymo to AIUC: Confidence Infrastructure for AIRune Kvist [00:08:05]: Yeah. AIUC builds confidence infrastructure for frontier AI through standards and insurance. The link from Anthropic to building confidence infrastructure, looking out the windows at Anthropic offices and seeing Waymos driving by. Already back then, early 2022, Waymos were in some ways like AGI for cars. Like, they were superhuman drivers, but you couldn't take one to the airport. And now, four and a bit years later, you still can't take your Waymo to the airport, despite now everyone having kind of looked at the evidence and being like, “They're better drivers than humans.” So in that particular instance, what's clear is that the binding constraint on AI being useful is not capability, but is that liability or risk or trust. That problem is, general. The reason why right nowRune Kvist [00:08:52]: Fable is not open for access is not because it's not a good model, it's because it's a very good model. It's just hard to make promises about what it will or will not do. And this problem gets worse as AI gets better. Basically, more intelligent AI can be more autonomous. That's more valuable, but also the risk surface grows. And so - what Waymo illustrates is that unless you build the confidence infrastructure to make promises about AI, or at least bring light to the risks, you grind adoption to a halt. Governments, banks, hospitals, militaries need to have some sense of what AI will and will not do to be able to operate for them to incorporate it. And that's the problem that we're trying to solve. Now, why standards and insurance? If you trace this problem back through history, every technology wave has had some version of this problem. So if you go back to, like, year 1900, electricity comesVibhu [00:09:47]: Ben Franklin.Rune Kvist [00:09:48]: Cars burn down, sorry, houses burn down, lots of people die. 1930s, cars are a big deal, kill lots of people. 1950s, private nuclear energy is a big deal, poses big risks. In each of those instances, the market runs ahead of regulation to create confidence infrastructure because that's required to make go/go decisions. That is required for adoption, and the market fundamentally wants adoption. And in all of those instances, common blueprint emerges between standards and insurance. The reason these two components is standards kind of provide the rules of the road, and they also specify, like, what are the tests that need to be run so we can get a sense of how high the risk is. So take in the case of cars, that's like a car crash. Great, everyone, they inform your insurance pricing today, they inform your purchasing decisions, et cetera. That's basically the risk framework. The insurers are important because they pick up the bill. So they are the private institution that is most on the side of. That is best incentivized to quantify the risks truthfully and then figure out all the ways to reduce the risk ‘cause that increases their profit. So they're basically, they help shape the incentives. And these two work really well in unison. Now, how does that show up as a company? Well, one of the things that was obvious even - or starting to become obvious even a couple years ago was that frontier companies, some of our customers today, like Cursor, Sierra, ElevenLabs, Harvey, were going to have a very easy time selling a pilot to a bank. The, like, the demo just sells itself. It's magic. But bringing that through, if you want to do a wall-to-wall rollout at a bank or a hospital, you have to go through the risk process. These banks have no idea even which questions to ask, let alone which answers are sufficient, let alone, like, how do they go and test whether these agents actually work the way they're supposed to. And so they had this problem of, like, what can we say to earn the trust? And we think there's, like, a golden sentence that goes something like, “Hey, I hear you're really worried about hallucinations or jailbreaks or whatever it may be. We've had an independent third party test us against the gold standard. We passed with flying colors. And as a vote of confidence, the world's most conservative insurers have looked at the data.” And they're willing to take some of the risk onto their balance sheet.Swyx [00:12:06]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:12:07]: So if something does go wrongSwyx [00:12:07]: There's money behind it, yeah.Rune Kvist [00:12:09]: Exactly. So that's kind of like the link between all this. We can get into some of the hard parts related to the technical testing, which is, I think, the crux of the matter, but I'll pause there.Swyx [00:12:19]: How did you and Rajiv come together? This-- there's always, like, you come across very confident and, you know, and we're announcing your Series A and all these things, but I want to see, like, the early initial stages of, like, idea formation.Cofounding AIUC with Rajiv DattaniRune Kvist [00:12:31]: Yeah. Rajiv is actually my soon-to-be brother-in-law.Swyx [00:12:35]: Oh.Rune Kvist [00:12:36]: So I'm actually, in a week and a half getting married to Rajiv's sister.Swyx [00:12:42]: Okay, now you're tight.Rune Kvist [00:12:44]: Exactly.Swyx [00:12:44]: Now you know.Rune Kvist [00:12:45]: So - Rajiv and I have known each other for a decade. Funny story, I met both Rajiv and his sister, Hena, at the same time when Hena and I were interns at McKinsey in London, and Rajiv was assigned as my mentor. And so met them at the same time. For the longest time, it was not obvious that we were necessarily going to work together. I was in startups. He was, an insurance partner at McKinsey. Three or four years ago, I think Hena convinced him that AI was going to be a really big thing. And so he quit his job, cushy partner job at McKinsey in London, packed his bags, flew to San Francisco, and ended up joining METR. You guys are probably online enoughSwyx [00:13:24]: CEO.Rune Kvist [00:13:24]: Exactly.Swyx [00:13:24]: We've, we've, we've heard of METR.Rune Kvist [00:13:25]: You see the plot-- the chart of the horizons of the tasks that agents can take on is doubling extremely fast. So he was COO at METR, led their partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI to test their models before release, but also working closely with the US and UK government, to figure out, like, how do you know whether a model can be released? And in some ways, that was, like, the perfect background. He's spent a lot of time in insurance, knows that world, spent a lot of time with frontier testing of models. And so when I was bumbling around this idea space, starting with some of the ideas we talked about related to Waymo, as soon as we got into the content, we were both like, “Oh, this would be an amazing business to build together.” This is wrestling with the problem that we both think is the most important in the world from a market angle, which is kind of our intuitions is that the market can do a lot, and the faster AI moves, the harder it is for government to solve some of these problems. And then it took a little bit of time to work through what is it like to work with family.Swyx [00:14:27]: Sure.Rune Kvist [00:14:27]: And,Swyx [00:14:30]: Because you were already dating at the timeRune Kvist [00:14:31]: Yeah. Yeah, exactly.Swyx [00:14:33]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:14:34]: Already back then, itSwyx [00:14:35]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:14:35]: We felt like we were a family.Swyx [00:14:36]: Nice.Rune Kvist [00:14:36]: And so starting a business together felt like kind of a big step. And, here we are with just immense amounts of trust.Vibhu [00:14:43]: Yeah. So now you're a company of how big? How big are you guys now?AIUC-1 Certification: Agent Security, Safety, and ReliabilityRune Kvist [00:14:46]: There are just 20 of us now.Vibhu [00:14:47]: 20 of you guys now, have Series A, and you have your first certification out, the AIUC-1. Let's bring up the certification. So this is the agent certification, right? What goes into the process? I have, like, two questions here. One is, walk us through the certification, and two is, what is the process for a company to get certified, you know?Rune Kvist [00:15:08]: Great. As it says right on the top, AIUC-1 is a standard for agent security, safety, and reliability. The fundamental design principle is take all of the concerns that slow down adoption, so all the questions, all the fears that keep, security leaders in the Fortune 1000 up at night, and put them into one comprehensive framework. That's what you'll see there. You can see the six categories. Two, you want to ground all of this in technical testing. So one of the concerns with security standards that often feel kind of like theater paperwork is that they're not actually ground out in, does any of this work? Does any of this matter? And so we had a conviction from early on that was going to be the kind of crux, was to pass this, you must get tested every quarter, basically run thousands of simulations to see, well, so can it actually be jailbroken? How hard is it to jailbreak? How often does it hallucinate? How often does it leak data? Et cetera. And then the last, core idea here, if you scroll up to the top here, is to refresh it quarterly.Rune Kvist [00:16:08]: So the core trait of AI is that it moves extremely fast. Whatever concerns we're discussing today were not the same ones three months ago, and this will keep changing. Typically, standards update on a, like, a decade cycle is obviously not going to work. But the question is kind of how do you update it? And the core thing here was to basically get the risk leaders of the Fortune 1000 around the table. So if you go over to the left hereVibhu [00:16:32]: YeahRune Kvist [00:16:32]: You'll see the AIUC-1 consortium. The consortium is a group of risk leaders who run real banks, real hospitals, real critical infrastructure, who are facing these challenges every day. And we meet with these folks twice a quarter and hear what's top of mind, what is keeping them up at night. There's tremendous amount of desire for that conversation. And then we operationalize that into a specific standard that gets into. And actually, we can go into and look at whatVibhu [00:16:55]: YeahRune Kvist [00:16:55]: What even is the standard. So if we go back to introduction, out there to the left, scroll up a little bit to the wheel, click into reliability. So if you take something like hallucinations sits in reliability. There is a number of requirements here. If you go into the top one, prevent hallucinated outputs, hallucinate outputs, this is one particular requirement. This is a technical control. Basically, we want some kind of ground in this filter. The first thing you see here is what's called a crosswalk. So everyone and their grandmother has put out a framework, very high-level framework for what are the AI risks.Swyx [00:17:27]: This is basically your competition,Rune Kvist [00:17:28]: In some ways our competitionSwyx [00:17:29]: Not seriously, yeah.Rune Kvist [00:17:30]: We're, in fact, friends with them. We'll come back to why.Swyx [00:17:31]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:17:32]: But mapping everything together so you have one superset. The claim you're trying to support here is, if you follow this framework, then you can also see how you follow the other frameworks. But the meat of it comes down here in control activities and evidence. So control activities is like, great, you have this high-level requirement. How do you turn that down to something operational? Here's what you must do, and then what is the evidence that we're looking for?Rune Kvist [00:17:57]: And the reason we go this deep is that there's actually not that much confusion about what are the big concerns in AI. Everyone agrees to these. The question, like, what are you actually supposed to do? And so. What we found a lot of demand for is getting down to the specific evidence, that people need to look for. Whether you are Cursor building something or, even JPMorgan building something, but also if you're just a risk leader at JPMorgan, like what exactly should you ask for? What can you ask for without sounding stupid? Like if you ask for some-- you won't believe the amount of time a risk leader has asked for the IP rights to the underlying model to Cursor or something, and you're just like “Sorry, what?” Like,Swyx [00:18:39]: You slip it in there and you seeRune Kvist [00:18:40]: SlipSwyx [00:18:40]: See if you notice.Rune Kvist [00:18:41]: See if they. Exactly.Swyx [00:18:42]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:18:42]: Put that in the questionnaire. All right, so that's kind of what our standard is, and we update this every quarter with these folks, to keep up with the latest concerns.Swyx [00:18:51]: Can I double-click on this one?Controls, Evidence, and Third-Party TestingRune Kvist [00:18:52]: Yeah.Swyx [00:18:52]: So first of all, the website's beautiful. Like, it's so confidence-inducing which is the whole point where, like, okay, I know exactly what I'm signing up for when I talk with you. Like, I don't even have to talk to you. I can just see your whole, certification, which is great. But, like, okay, so from here, like D001.1 configure a groundedness filter, how does that get applied? Like, you have a person thatRune Kvist [00:19:16]: Yeah,Swyx [00:19:16]: Goes through it?Rune Kvist [00:19:17]: If you, go backVibhu [00:19:19]: I did see somewhere there's like, you know, fifty-one requirements, a hundred thirty controls. There's like a wholeSwyx [00:19:25]: Right. I just want to. Like, to me, this doesn't translateVibhu [00:19:27]: Yeah.Swyx [00:19:27]: Into a test or an eval.Rune Kvist [00:19:28]: Yes. So if you go into, on the left-hand side. So actually, if - before we go in there are three types of requirements. The first is technical controls, like you must implement some guardrails.Rune Kvist [00:19:42]: Two, there are test controls. So you must have an independent third party go and run some tests against you. I'll show you one of those in a second. And then three, there are policy controls. For example, you must have a person whose name is on the line when you guys f**k up, and you must have a plan for how you tell your customers and how you engage with them. They're kind of more traditional, standard type stuff. So in this particular instance, we just check whether they in fact have a ground in filter. So we will partner with an auditor. So we partner with auditors like KPMG or like Schellman who go in and do the thing auditors do, which is to check the evidence. In this case, that might be a screenshot, it might be part of the code that they need to review to see that it actually. Just that it exists.Swyx [00:20:21]: Oh, okay.Rune Kvist [00:20:22]: And then the second thingSwyx [00:20:22]: So you're not testing the effectiveness of it.Rune Kvist [00:20:24]: That's the second thing. So if you go downSwyx [00:20:25]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:20:25]: To the third-party testing for hallucinations out on the left, that's basically the next requirement. This is where we test how well does it actually work.Swyx [00:20:32]: Okay, and is it you testing or the auditor?Rune Kvist [00:20:34]: We test them.Rune Kvist [00:20:35]: We test them.Swyx [00:20:36]: That's a lot of work.Vibhu [00:20:37]: How long does testing take? So if I want to get certified, justCertification Timelines, Remediation, and Quarterly UpdatesRune Kvist [00:20:40]: Yeah.Vibhu [00:20:40]: How long does the end roughly take?Rune Kvist [00:20:42]: Yeah, the end, almost always is dependent on, like, our customers needVibhu [00:20:47]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:20:47]: To look something for us. It takes somewhere between, like, 3 to 10 weeksSwyx [00:20:52]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:20:52]: Depending on how up to snuff they already are. So some people show up to us with, like, extremely rigorous security programs. When we test them, it works extremely well. We can get that done very quick. Some people come to us, and they're not that far along. We give them kind of the spec that they need to build towards, and then their security teams and engineers get to work and build to meet the standard. The testing itself typically takes a couple of weeks, including the time for them to remediate. Often, we'll find something that we cannot pass, where this is actually just not up to the standard. - you won't pass the standard. And then they will need to go and implement additional safeguards or additional remediation that makes them more robust so that they can actually kind of hand on heart look at their customers in the eyes and say, like, “Hey, we've done truly our very best.”Vibhu [00:21:35]: And they're certified for a year and have quarterly updates?Rune Kvist [00:21:38]: Correct, yeah.Vibhu [00:21:39]: And, yeah, it's pretty interesting. I think, you know, what's changed since. So this is certifying agents in production, right? Your customers, like you've had Lovable, ElevenLabs, Intercom, and they've all gone through this certification.Rune Kvist [00:21:50]: Yes.Vibhu [00:21:51]: What has changed? So I see you post, like, you know, Q2 added MCP agent,How Agent Risks Are Changing: Coding, MCP, and Agent-to-Agent InteractionsRune Kvist [00:21:56]: Yeah.Vibhu [00:21:56]: agent communication. Any other things that you want to kind of highlight since the first iteration? What comes in quarterly?Rune Kvist [00:22:03]: Yeah. So some of the changes have just been agents are not just one thing. So, like, if you take agents like Cursor and compare them to Sierra, they're really quite different. And compare them to Harvey again, compare them to you out of againSwyx [00:22:16]: ElevenLabs, yeah.Rune Kvist [00:22:17]: ElevenLabs, they're all quite different. And so we wanted to design a standard that works for all of the types of agents. And we started with one that was, like, pretty text-based, like, honestly, pretty customer support-focused. That's where there's a lot of existing demand. And then over time, we've picked, some of the frontier companies in each of these other domains that we could work with and build out the standard, so, such that we know that the same standard works for code, it works for customer support, works for automation, et cetera. So that's been one big thing. Yeah, then some of the things that have been top of mind recently, Mythos is bringing up a lot of concerns for security leaders. We're starting to get more and more questions around agent interactions. It's very nascent, at the moment, but it's starting to emerge. There've been a lot of, questions related to OpenClaw and MCP. Again, like agents starting to interact with each other, is really top of mind. Then as coding agents have really taken off, that's also where banks and hospitals, et cetera, are getting more and more precise on what it is they need. So really dialing in as that start to be, like, where most of the tokens flow through in the world, getting much sharper on that.Vibhu [00:23:26]: Can you share for people that are listening that don't really think about this? Like you mentioned, there's the obvious stuff, you know, hallucination, citations. What are best practices that people should do when building agents? Like, if they come to you pretty ready with certification like, you know, they'll probably pass certification. What are the things people don't think about that they should have?Best Practices for Agent Builders: Stress Tests and GuardrailsRune Kvist [00:23:46]: The most important thing is that a lot of companies have not done a serious stress test. They spend most of the time, perhaps rightly so, optimizing for how does it work in the good case, the average case, how high-quality is the output for the customer. And a lot of these companies are pretty new, so they haven't spent a lot of time stress testing the what is there as an adversary on the other side? What are some of the complicated corner cases that you've not really considered? So I think that's, like, a frame of mind. And you'll also see this in startups. It often takes a while until they hire their first security person. They- And that's a whole different kind of risk surface than just building a good product. So a lot of that applies. Most companies actually also have the right kind of architecture. Most of them will have some kind of guardrails in place, either some that come out of the box from their model provider or they'll have built their own filters that sit in between. They just don't work very well. The difference between putting a classifier in place that, like, maybe goes and checks whether you're giving medical advice when you shouldn't and says, “Hey, if this looks like medical advice, filter it out.” Lots of companies have that in place. The question is whether it works. And it's actually pretty fiddly to sit down and think about all the ways in which you could ask for medical advice, read the academic literature on what are the kinds ofRune Kvist [00:25:03]: Framings or tricks you might play to get an AI to give you medical advice when you really shouldn't. And so there's, like, an area of expertise that's just missing. So what we find is that most people have the right building blocks in place. They don'- It doesn'- It's not rocket science, but the finicky thing is, like, getting into the corners and testing whether it works such that you can look your customers in the eye, or maybe a bank or maybe a hospital and be like, “This is going to work for you.”Vibhu [00:25:26]: I see. So we talked a lot about the agent-level certification. Where do you guys go from here? So announcing series A camera, we talked about this a bit. There's the whole security risk of Fable, government stepping in. You guys are kind of announcing that you're also going into model certification?Toward Model Certification: The Government–Lab Trust GapRune Kvist [00:25:46]: When we do a bit of cutting afterwards,Vibhu [00:25:48]: YeahRune Kvist [00:25:48]: We will not yet be announcing this,Vibhu [00:25:49]: NiceRune Kvist [00:25:50]: The question that is top of everyone's minds now is at the model level. And Mythos, then Fable, has really brought this to the fore that in addition to the commercial risk and the kind of economic security risks that are happening at the agent layer, the models are going to present risk in the national security category. The shape of the problem is very similar. You have some people that are on the hook if something goes wrong. In the case of agents, it's often security leaders in the enterprise. In this case, it's the government. They don'- haven't necessarily spent their entire lives thinking about what are the new risks that come here, what is the kind of data you might be looking for, how might you test that? But they do have to make sure that their concerns are addressed. You have some frontier AI companies that are deeply technical. They know a lot about the risks, but they fundamentally have an incentive to not always be truthful. So you have a trust gap between the government and the labs. And in every other industry, you end up with some kind of body sitting between, a neutral third party sitting between those people. There's no other industry where you allow people to audit themselves. So there is going to be a need for a third party that can take the rigor of the labs to run frontier technical evals, but can also speak legible trust in the way that the government trusts PwC to go and run financial audits. And they know that they output audit reports in a way that's consistent, that's easy to read, that's factual, that's, trustworthy. Those two things need to be brought together. And what we've learned from our work with agents is that if you want those-- that communication between those two parties to be smooth, there has to be one common standard that is public, that people can go and inspect. What are the risks that matter? Within each of these risks, what are the kinds of threat models that you're really looking for? You need to specify for each of those risks, what are the guardrails that need to be in place, and what are the tests they need to run to see whether those guardrails are effective? And then you need to go and run audits that are - technical audits that are consistent. So if you're trying to bring trust, it's extremely important that you methodically work your way through the risks. You can't send one researcher in and say, like, “Come back with whatever you find.” You need to be able to explain exactly what you did, exactly what you tried, exactly what you did not try, and therefore the kinds of promises you can and cannot make at the end of it. I think ofNeutral Third Parties, CAISI, and Model Risk AuditsRune Kvist [00:28:13]: Fable as a direct symptom of this problem that the government was told that there's a risk. The government may struggle to assess just how big that risk is. They call Anthropic, and Anthropic is trying to tell them, “Hey, actually, every model can be jailbroken.”Swyx [00:28:28]: That's not what you want to hear, right?Rune Kvist [00:28:32]: As the government, that might be hard to trust.Rune Kvist [00:28:36]: And we think that a broker is the most natural solution. In other markets, you see something like, in financial markets, you see Moody's. Moody's goes in, and they look at a bond, and they output a rating. They say like, “Here's the evidence we found. Here's the rating.” We don't decide whether anyone should buy this bond or not buy this bond. Well, that depends on their risk appetite. But we do provide this common information layer that everyone can rely on. In the case of Moody's, the government, points to them and say, “Hey, pension funds, you should probably really take care. You shouldn't risk your pensioners' money, so you can only invest in triple-A rated bonds.” That means that now the government doesn't have to staff thousands of financial technical experts to rerun forecasts every week to see whether things are correctly rated. They get to point to some neutral third party. So my hypothesis is, my hunch is that you will see a third party that sits between the government and the labs, and it could either be the government builds it themselves. So something like CAISI was set up to do exactly this. And the questionSwyx [00:29:44]: Sorry, I'm not familiar with CAISI.Rune Kvist [00:29:45]: CAISI is the Center for AI Standards and Innovation.Swyx [00:29:49]: Okay.Rune Kvist [00:29:50]: I won't get into the details, but it's a body of NIST that typically sets standards. So it's basically a government body that has AI experts. Yeah, exactly. Exactly.Swyx [00:29:59]: Very key. Very key.Rune Kvist [00:30:00]: Very key.Vibhu [00:30:00]: I think, you know, it's one of those things where when you just sit back and listen-- look at it, like, is there enough technical expertise in the government to measure, test these things right now? Probably not, right? And Fable is a result of, okay, we've had to scale back and pause things,Rune Kvist [00:30:17]: Yeah. And they have excellent people, but they have an extraordinarily small budget compared to the scale of the challenge that's ahead of us. And I think they have a role to play. The question is kind of like, who does what? We have now outlined the jobs to be done, and they're quite extensive. Every model release, there is an astounding-- Given that they take in any input, their risk surface is astounding. And so the question is really: what can only the government do, and what can the market provide here that can keep up with the pace as AI risk changes? Our perspective is that also at the model layer, the risks that people care about today are not the same ones they cared about three months ago. So the pace of legislation is too slow to deal with pinpointing the risks here. And so we think there's a lot that the market can do to surface timely information. Ultimately, there is a bunch of policy decisions here. Is the national security risks of a model too high?Swyx [00:31:12]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:31:12]: That's a political answer. But what we want to make sure is that the process that produces this risk information is compatible with very fast innovation. So you don't want to. This is not a question of like, can you slow the things down? Can you keep, the models locked up until-- for months on end until everyone can make a guarantee? But it is this, can you, in the time it. Given that the US is competing with China on releasing models, can you insert risk information that allows the government to, like, make rapid decisions on some of these questions? Balancing that trade-off between failing to adopt AI is going to put us at risk, but also reckless adoption is going to put us at risk. And that's a very kind of fine balance that they're going to need, like, a lot of high-quality intelligence to make.Chinese Models, Data Flows, and National Security ConcernsSwyx [00:31:55]: Just a side mention, because you mentioned Chinese models, any specific concerns that you're hearing from your CISOs about that? ‘cause I guess it's free, but.Rune Kvist [00:32:05]: CISOs have a bunch of concerns around data flows in general that they're really concerned about. So there's a lot of questions like, if these models are Chinese, where does that, where does that data go? I think a lot of this can be addressed, but they come up often.Swyx [00:32:18]: I mean, they understand they're running on American GPUs.Rune Kvist [00:32:21]: Some of them, some of them understand that they're running on American GPUs.Swyx [00:32:23]: They're not, like, phoning home every time you, like, call home.Rune Kvist [00:32:26]: No. A year ago, there was not a lot of understanding of this. I actually think, you're seeing the security leaders becoming kind of AI literate at a blistering pace, and you're actually also seeing my Twitter timeline that's very pilled and my LinkedIn feed that used to not at all be pilled kind of converge. They're both talking about Fable.Swyx [00:32:45]: Right. Yeah, that's true.Rune Kvist [00:32:46]: They are both talking about whether you can prevent models from being jailbroken these days.Swyx [00:32:51]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:32:52]: Like national security national security risks are now the conversation that is actually emerging. Other than that, I think you mostly see a kind of general picture: there are no concerns with any particular model or any particular model output, but there is a general nervousness of having critical infrastructure run on models that are not produced in America by Americans where the American government has control.Swyx [00:33:14]: But it doesn't necessarily show up in your framework that directly, or it might, I don't know.Rune Kvist [00:33:18]: There's a bit of stuff in there actually on the, like, the provenance of the models and disclosing that. But I think there's a bunch of use cases where running a Chinese open-source model is just the best solution.Swyx [00:33:27]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:33:27]: And a concern is slightly more macro here, which is not best addressed at any particular certification level.Vibhu [00:33:32]: Is there anything interesting that you see at the. You know, if you're trying to fill that middle gap, that mediation gap, any interesting stuff that you guys forecast would be required other than, you know, what the average person might expect?Cyber, Child Safety, Bio Risk, and Expert CoordinationRune Kvist [00:33:47]: There's a bunch of interesting questions about what are the risks that matter here. So right now, the risk of the day is cyber, because it's very real, very tangible. And some of the risks that are also emerging as pretty real and pretty tangible are things like child safety is becoming both extremely important, but also politically important. And then there are some of the risks that are coming down the pipeline that today feel kind of speculative, but people who spend a lot of time with the models see them coming down is things like, risks that relate to biology.Rune Kvist [00:34:18]: And specifically whether models will help adversaries produce biological weapons and making that extremely cheap, extremely accessible, producing-- making the chance of another COVID or worse pandemic. COVID was not engineered to be bad, as if you were trying to do that. So I think those are some of the risks that are coming down the pipeline. I think one other thing to just note is that agents are kind of deliberately narrow. So, like, when a frontier agent company puts a chatbot that interacts with customers, they've really tried to narrow the topics it's interested in talking about. Such that if you ask it, like, “What do you think of the president?” it will just decline, which means that the kind of risk area is somewhat smaller. For models, it is infinite. And so there's not a single expert out there who can competently evaluate the risks of cyberattacks and fifteen-year-olds having month-long conversations with a chatbot and seeing whether it will in fact recommend suicide or something horrendous like that, and can evaluate the risks that terrorists can use AI to produce bioweapons. The risk surface is just too big. And so the central challenge actually becomes how do you get those subject matter experts to work within a one coherent framework that outputs one coherent report and rating that the world can go and inspect? ‘Cause that global perspective is central, but there's not a single organization today that could produce that.Swyx [00:35:47]: And you would be the presumptive one when you put out your model standards.Rune Kvist [00:35:51]: We think there can be one company that can, with a consortium of experts, build one coherent standard. I think we've shown that across all of the enterprise risks today. We think it could be one company that could, with a consortium, specify the audit rules, basically like the inputs and outputs that all these technical experts need. What access do they need? How should they treat infosec- info security? They can look at whether the eval- evals are well-produced without necessarily being able to say, “Hey, is this a threat or not a threat?” But overall, evaluating whether the evals are good, well-constructed, that set of audit rules that basically becomes the interface for all these experts, we think one clearinghouse could put together. To be clear. When I say one company, I think of it as one company coordinating lots of this in the same way that when we saw our consortium, it's not like we say we have all the answers on agent security. What we say is we are taking on the role of eliciting all of the concerns and being the secretary that puts it together and runs a tight house such that the standard updates lockstep every quarter, and that the audit reports that come out, in this case, 100-page audit reports, uniform and crisp and clear all to the level of detail that is required for executives that need to make a clear go/go decision. So that's kind of the role that we think we might play.OWASP, Frameworks, and the Operational Audit LayerSwyx [00:37:11]: I think in many ways you're performing the role that OWASP used to do there, and you said, like, you know, competition and partners.Rune Kvist [00:37:18]: Yeah.Swyx [00:37:19]: Can you go more into, like, how they partner?Rune Kvist [00:37:20]: Yeah. So first of all, OWASP is basically an open source community of security practitioners that are coming together to build frameworks for addressing the latest security concerns. We think they are phenomenal at creating frameworks. We'- In fact, we'- First of all, we're partners with them, so we have a joint article. Two, we've learned a lot from them. We think they're a tremendous source of intelligence. What OWASP does not do is building the machine that runs third-party audits such that a company like Cursor or a company like JPMorgan could get a third party to go and review them against this and say, “Hey, you've passed the standard, and here is the report that you can use to build trust and preempt your partners' or customers' questions.” So they fundamentally try to do something different. You - They are part of the information gathering and intelligence gathering and creating clarity, but the operational layer of turning this into promises is not the business they try to be in.Swyx [00:38:14]: The standard is emerging and is doing very well. Was it necessary to then also do underwriting? Obviously it's in the name, so please remember you thought about it first. I feel like if you just have enough consensus, you don't actually need the money angle, but it does help.Vibhu [00:38:30]: I did want to also note, you guys are a profit company too, right? It's not profit where there's a whole business side to it as well?Why For-Profit Standards and Insurers MatterRune Kvist [00:38:39]: Yeah. Yeah, so I'm just getting crazySwyx [00:38:41]: I think about the money part.Rune Kvist [00:38:42]: Yeah. Yeah, let's get into the money part. Let's start from actually your question, profit versus profit. In the security space today, cybersecurity, most of the standards are produced by nonprofits. I think that's an issue.Rune Kvist [00:39:00]: The question you have to ask yourself is, how do you create good incentives for these standards to be good and keep up?Rune Kvist [00:39:09]: Nonprofits tend to not have these adverse profit incentives where they, hollow out their standard and create a race to the bottom, but they're also not at all responsive by default to the communities that they serve. There's no process-- They don't have customers that they serve where they go and ask, “What do you want? What do you want? What do you want?” And when you look at the overall satisfaction with the security standards today, people tend to just not like them very much. You do see in other domains, that profit standards can serve the world quite well. So there are examples, like we talked about Moody's before. It's not without flaws, but, it is absolutely critical societal infrastructure that gets run at an astounding scale today. Your credit score, it's FICO. It's also a profit business. And when you go back even further in history, some of the crash testing standards came out of insurance companies.Rune Kvist [00:40:06]: The insurance companies together founded the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety because they were very interested in, like, how can we use standards to drive down mortality and save money? Go back, prior-- Our name actually pays homage to the Underwriters Laboratories, UL, which, was started right around when electricity came out. Houses started burning down. Insurers, again, were paying the bill, and they were maybe also good people, but their profit incentive was, let's prevent houses from burning down. Let's test all the electrical products, the light bulbs. All the light bulbs in here are probably tested, the toasters, et cetera. And they set up, an entity to create those standards. Today, UL has a profit entity and a profit entity. What they've recognized, they spun - They started profit. They spun out a profit because what they recognized was like, hey, actually to serve customers well, you need a profit entity. The lesson here is one of the ways that the market can align incentives so you're both responsive to customersRune Kvist [00:41:07]: And not hollowing out your standard over time is to align it with insurers because they fundamentally have good incentives. And so if you're a profit standard that works closely with insurers, you get the feedback loop in such that you're really tuned into your customers, but also have their interest at heart. So that's the model that we - the kind of inspirational model that we've learned a lot from, and that's also where the name comes from. In some ways, the term underwriting can both be associated with insurance, but it's also a broad term for, like, making decisions.Rune Kvist [00:41:40]: If you underwrite a decision, you're fundamentally kind of taking ownership for the consequences of it.AI Insurance Contracts, Lloyd's of London, and ElevenLabsSwyx [00:41:45]: Yeah, I mean, what does an insurance contract look like for AI?Rune Kvist [00:41:49]: Yeah. Most of the demand comes today for insurance contracts is, sitting between people who've built AI and people who are buying AI.Swyx [00:41:56]: Yes.Rune Kvist [00:41:57]: And what you want—the reason why people want insurers involved, both for the traditional reasons, hey, if something goes wrong, we want to be compensated, but it's in particular because insurers can bring trust to the equation. Because insurers will pay for the damages, if they're willing to write an insurance policy, that is them saying, “Hey, we think there is risk here, but that is manageable.” And that is kind of a. Their incentive aligns with the enterprises adopting it, so that's a really a good signal to the market. In the same way, actually, one of the things that Waymo tried to get their first permit to even operate in San Francisco was to get a lot of insurers to stack up a huge insurance policy. In the case if something went wrong, not because Google can't pay, but because it was very valuable to have a third party go and look at that dataRune Kvist [00:42:47]: That are trusted by governments, trusted by enterprises as conservative people and say, “Hey, we've looked at it. We're actually willing to take some of this on our balance sheet.” So that's, that's kind of the reason why people are interested in it. What it looks like is, in some ways like every other insurance contract. You specify what are the perils you want to cover, how much do you want to cover them, like up to what limits, and what does it cost to cover that. And in the case of, if we take a really concrete example, ElevenLabs, bought a first of its kind AI agent insurance policy. They work with some of the biggest, enterprises that work with governments. They're really interested in going above and beyond and making promises to their customers. So they wrote a policy that covers just some of the core concerns that their customers have been asking about. And, the crucial thing was really to get Lloyd's of London, the world's oldest insurer, one of our partners, to look at this data and be that third party alongside us to say, “Hey, we think there's something here that's worth underwriting.” and that's actually what it looks like. And so they will show that contract to their customers, and they can see how much they're covered for. They can see what exactly it covers, and that will also probably change next year. They will want to write an insurance policy that might cover more.Swyx [00:44:04]: When you say Lloyd's, is it reinsurance, or are they sharing somehow at the same level orRune Kvist [00:44:11]: Yeah. So typically, the way, new companies get into insurance is that they partner with insurers such that the insurers take the majority or all of the financial risks. Fundamentally, if insurance is useful, because it brings trust, you have to be able to pay the bill. Lloyd's of London is 400 years old. They've never not paid a claim. They're extremely trusted. What Lloyd's of London struggle to do on their own is to figure out which of the risks are real, what should we be looking for, what are the kinds of technical controls, and running the tests. So they use AIUC-1 as kind of the underwriting framework, and we produce a bunch of eval results that then directly feed in to inform the pricing. So this means that ElevenLabs customers know that payment will be there. They don't have to look to our series A and see, like, do we think they have enough cash on the balance sheet? They will look at Lloyd's.Swyx [00:45:05]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:45:05]: Yeah.Swyx [00:45:05]: And Lloyd's, like, famously very creative. I think I remember some headline like, they insured Jennifer Lopez's, butt or something.Rune Kvist [00:45:13]: Correct.Swyx [00:45:13]: Right?Rune Kvist [00:45:13]: And I think, was it, David Beckham's right foot?Swyx [00:45:16]: So, yeah. Right?Rune Kvist [00:45:17]: And stuff like this.Swyx [00:45:18]: So, like, clearly not a large data set.Rune Kvist [00:45:22]: Exactly. It's actually a remarkable institution that's both kind of has some of the truly school virtues of having been around for a long time. They, like, really. They really operate like a trusted entity, and they have appetite to figure out the future. And I think there's a lot of recognition that both there is, like, tremendous amount of risk in AI that is poorly understood today, so getting into this business carries real risks. But also this is where lots of the risk exposure will happen in the future. This is the one market where risk is truly growing. This is the one market that will also take out some of the existing markets. Take, like, auto insurance. When there are no human drivers, how's that market going to look? Well, it's clearly going to change. How are you going to assessSwyx [00:46:08]: You want to insure Waymo?Rune Kvist [00:46:10]: I. All I'll say is the principles for how you insure Waymo are very similar to how you insure other kinds of AI.Swyx [00:46:15]: Right.Rune Kvist [00:46:15]: So again, crash testing, that's what we do for customer share at Lovable. That will also need to happen for Waymo, which is not how you do it for human drivers. So there's this growing awareness that the world is changing very fast, and the only way to learn how to underwrite AI is to write some policies. You may incur some losses and think of that as R&D expense, really. But the question for them is, like, who are the trustedtechnical partners they can get into this business with that can help them navigate and make sure they don't make, kind of foolish mistakes? But also who is willing to hear the wisdom that they have? They've done this before. They've seen it was. They were there when cyber came out. So there are lots of ways in which AI feels completely new, but there's also lots of ways in which risks look the same. And so there's actually a tremendous amount of wisdom sitting in some folks that may have gray hair, but really have, like, a keen sense of, how to quantify risk.Swyx [00:47:08]: Yeah. And the number is. So it's basically like I want fifty million dollars worth of coverage against these perils, and Lloyd's will give you a quote on it, and then you have, like, a small markup or something, and then you turn it around and do that? Is that as simple as it is?Risk Capital, Premiums, and Working with InsurersRune Kvist [00:47:23]: You basically share some of that premium.Swyx [00:47:25]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:47:25]: X percent goes to the people who do the pricing of it.Swyx [00:47:28]: You're. It's kind of like a. It's kind of like a merchant bank for insurance type of thing.Rune Kvist [00:47:33]: Exactly. You basically split the fee, and you can think of the insurance supply chain as, like, there's bringing the capital, there is doing the pricing, and there is doing the distribution. And typically, you will pay out some X percent of premium here, Y percent of premium here, and the rest of it will go here.Swyx [00:47:46]: Does all the insurance world work like this, or is there some point at which, like. So if right now you have equity capitalRune Kvist [00:47:51]: Yeah.Swyx [00:47:52]: At some point, maybe you start raising, debt or whatever, and then you have enough of a bank account and enough history, let's say you've been in operation for ten yearsRune Kvist [00:48:00]: Correct.Swyx [00:48:00]: That you don't need Lloyd's anymore?Rune Kvist [00:48:02]: That's totally an option. And I could see some worlds where that makes sense, specifically if there are risks that we feel high confidence that we'd want to insure where the incumbent insurers are too slow to find appetiteSwyx [00:48:13]: Okay.Rune Kvist [00:48:13]: Or simply struggle to evaluate it such that they don't want to do it. But by and large, in general, you do not want to compete with insurers on, bringing risk capital to the game for two reasons. One is that's fundamentally a cost of capital game. They have extremely low cost of capital. Startups have high cost of capital, by and large. And two, you want to hedge your bets, and it's very helpful then to also have a portfolio of home insurance, of car insurance. And we're not about to become a car insurer nor a home insurer.Rune Kvist [00:48:43]: So they have some natural advantages, which makes it much more likely that we'll partner.Swyx [00:48:48]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:48:48]: And they bring that, the capital at scale, and we bring the technical expertise.Swyx [00:48:51]: You're, you're going to work with them for a long time.Vibhu [00:48:52]: How are the discussions with the insurers as well? So basically, they're going off of your certification, right? They're trusting the diligence on you that your certification is valid, you tested the right things, and they're backing the money that, you know, you have the right testing in place. So any interesting takeaways from working with insurers?Rune Kvist [00:49:12]: I think the maybe the first thing is they feed into the standard as well. So if there are things that they feel like they need that they're not seeing, we are also taking that as input into the standard, because fundamentally we think a good standard is one that creates a really healthy promise ecosystem, and we think insurers are a critical part of that. And again, they are the most well-incentivized to. They see all the lost data across every. Any particular CISO knows their particular concerns. Insurers see the concerns across the entire portfolio and often have direct access to, like, what exactly happened, who was at fault, et cetera, as they do part of their forensics. So they're actually, like, a great source of intelligence on this. One of the big takeaways from cyber insurance, which is a market that didn't work that well, was that the insurance and the technical expertise was not married up. What our conviction is that standards have to precede insurance. Fundamentally, what everyone first and foremost want, whether you're a CISO at JPMorgan or a CISO at Cursor or an underwriter at Lloyd's of London syndicate, is you want to not have an incidentRune Kvist [00:50:19]: In the first place. You want to know that the risk is well-managed, and only then does insurance start to make sense. So we'll see the standard ecosystem basically run ahead of the insurance. And the reason why we. You asked us kind of why I also do insurance, this is kind of proving what we think a whole promise confidence infrastructure ecosystem needs to look like, and we think it's very compelling to bring that to life, even if we think the standard is kind of the core linchpin that unlocks the rest.Claims, Liability, Air Canada, and Duty of CareSwyx [00:50:44]: There's been no claims yet, right?Rune Kvist [00:50:45]: Nope.Swyx [00:50:46]: This is one of those things where, you know, if people haven't really worked through what it means to cover things.Rune Kvist [00:50:52]: Yeah.Swyx [00:50:52]: So for example, I pay Cursor $20 a month.Rune Kvist [00:50:55]: Yep.Swyx [00:50:56]: And I write a vibe code something that makes, a plane crash, causing $200 million worth of damage.Rune Kvist [00:51:02]: Yes.Swyx [00:51:02]:

Jeffrey Havsy is the commercial real estate industry practice lead at Moody's Analytics, where he focuses on combining property fundamentals with economic, credit, climate, and alternative data to help lenders, investors, and operators make better decisions. He has spent his career at the intersection of economics and real estate, including roles at NCREIF and CBRE. Moody's Analytics covers more than 600 million public and private entities worldwide and generated over $7 billion in revenue in 2025. Jeffrey is based in Needham, Massachusetts.(02:46) From data scarcity to data curation(03:39) What lenders and investors miss beyond property fundamentals(05:34) Tenant credit, crime data, and truck traffic as signals(09:16) Moody's commercial location score explained(12:52) Cap rates: overrated, underrated, or misused(15:39) Moody's MCP launch and what it means for CRE decisions(18:32) Why Moody's stays AI platform-agnostic(20:44) Where the human stays in the loop(23:33) Physical risk vs. ESG(26:11) The hidden risks in industrial real estate(30:06) How robotics changes what a warehouse is worth(31:09) The one macro data point CRE ignores: productivity(33:10) Collaboration superpower: Abraham Lincoln

Philipp hat am Wochenende The Big Short geschaut und stellt die Frage, wer heute die Hypothekenmakler von damals sind. OpenAI verschiebt den Börsengang und nennt Sicherheitsbedenken als Grund, was Pip für Propaganda hält, und er erklärt, welche Zahlen wirklich dahinterstecken. Anthropic geht den umgekehrten Weg, meldet das zweite Quartal mit positivem Betriebsergebnis und verhandelt mit Nvidia über zehn Milliarden als Ankerinvestor. Wir nehmen die Kennzahlen auseinander, die die Financial Times zitiert. Dario Amodei hat am Samstag einen Essay veröffentlicht und ruft die Branche zum Bremsen auf. Altman, Musk und Hassabis stimmen zu, Microsoft schreibt lieber eine eigene Verfassung, und Donald Trump nennt das Ganze eine kranke Verschwörung. Wir gehen vier mögliche Erklärungen durch, warum sich vier verfeindete Labore plötzlich die Hand reichen, und reden über die Frage: Warum haftet eigentlich niemand, wenn tausende Agenten in Webseiten einbrechen? Dazu eine Hörerfrage zu Nvidias Margen und Cohere sammelt wieder Geld ein. Unterstütze unseren Podcast und entdecke die Angebote unserer Werbepartner auf ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠doppelgaenger.io/werbung⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Vielen Dank!  TokenMade: 100 Minuten KI-USE-CASE-DRUCKBETANKUNG in München, am 28.09., ab 17 Uhr. Die letzten Tickets gibt's auf https://tokenmade.ai/events Philipp Glöckler und Philipp Klöckner sprechen heute über: (00:00:00) The Big Short (00:08:53) OpenAI verschiebt (00:11:20) Anthropics Zahlen (00:21:39) Amodeis Slowdown-Essay (00:22:57) Microsofts Code of Conduct (00:24:22) Haftung der CEOs (00:32:26) Trump gegen Amodei (00:35:34) Deutschland lehnt ab (00:38:49) Regulatory Capture (00:42:04) Palantir hält dagegen (00:46:21) Hörerfrage Objektivität (00:48:09) Nvidias Margen (00:52:04) Cohere (00:53:32) S&P warnt (00:54:31) Revolut (00:56:49) Tesla Roadster (00:58:48) Waymo meldet Waffe (00:59:34) Project Lily Shownotes OpenAI verschiebt den Börsengang wegen Sicherheitsbedenken - spiegel.de Anthropic verspricht seinen Investoren ein profitables Quartal - ft.com Nvidia verhandelt über ein Investment in Anthropics Mega-IPO - reuters.com Dario Amodei: We Must Pace the Frontier - darioamodei.com Microsoft gibt seinen KI-Modellen einen Verhaltenskodex - independent.co.uk Trump wischt die Sorge vor KI-Auslöschung beiseite, China zählt mehr - forbes.com Trumps Beitrag: KI braucht keine Leitplanken, sondern einen Präsidenten - truthsocial.com Deutschland hält einen Entwicklungsstopp für keine Option und fordert USA und China - reuters.com Palantir-Mitgründer Joe Lonsdale hält die Angst für überzogen - businessinsider.de Cohere verhandelt über bis zu 3 Mrd. bei 20 Mrd. Bewertung - theglobeandmail.com S&P sieht die Kreditqualität der Hyperscaler schwächer werden - axios.com Revolut gab Passdaten und Bitcoin-Historien nach einer gefälschten Behörden-Mail heraus - cryptotimes.io Die Erpresser fordern 10.000 Bitcoin von Revolut - linkedin.com Teslas Roadster der zweiten Generation bekommt nach fast zehn Jahren einen Termin - engadget.com Ein Waymo meldet eine Waffe, zwei Jugendliche werden festgenommen - sfgate.com Project Lily: die Menschen, die deine ChatGPT-Protokolle lesen - 404media.co TokenMade am 28. September in München - tokenmade.ai

Danny Moses welcomes back Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, for a deep dive into what's really holding this market together — and where the cracks are starting to show. Cameron explains why the S&P has held its 50-day moving average through war, higher oil, and a more hawkish Fed, and why that resilience comes down almost entirely to earnings. But she digs into a more troubling story underneath the Mag 7's earnings growth: deteriorating earnings quality, accounting maneuvers (reclassified leases, extended payables, one-time investment gains from stakes in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX), and a multiple that's compressed from 23x to 19x as a result. They cover the credit market's early warning signs in CCC-rated bonds, the "crowding out" effect as hyperscalers shift from self-funded to debt-and-equity-funded AI capex, why voters aren't punishing politicians for record deficits (yet), the stock market's growing role as the economy's real pressure point, and positioning in bonds, the dollar, and gold heading into next week's Fed and Bank of Japan decisions.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Learn the 3 Contrarian Steps to Protect & Grow Your Wealth During the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (The AI Bubble) sign up herehttps://rcp.georgegammon.com/registration---webinar Want the cheat code to protect and grow your wealth? Check out Rebel Capitalist Pro https://rcp.georgegammon.com/pro

Jamie Borodin is the founder and CEO of Docuverus, a document verification and fraud detection platform purpose-built for multifamily housing providers. With over 30 years in resident screening, Jamie founded Docuverus in 2017 to address a gap no existing tool was solving: authenticating income documents at the metadata level while simultaneously reading and calculating their contents. Docuverus is one of the only platforms with a direct connection to the Social Security Administration for synthetic identity detection. Jamie is based in southern New Jersey.(02:16) Why standard screening misses income fraud (05:03) How fraud evolved from COVID to AI-generated documents (07:13) What a sophisticated fake pay stub looks like today(09:09) What bad debt files actually reveal (13:10) Operators don't know how much bad debt is fraud (14:12) False security: when your PMS fraud tool isn't enough (18:27) Why bank account linking isn't fraud detection (19:11) Fraud hotspots: Houston, Atlanta, and why NYC is different(24:27) Social Security fraud and synthetic identity detection (25:36) What a CPN is and how it fabricates a credit file (27:58) Florida's felony law and the limits of regulation (29:29) Screening compliance: why the liability falls on the operator (33:27) Where fraud prevention goes as AI lowers the barrier (35:42) Collaboration superpower: Albert Einstein

Danny Moses welcomes back PGA Tour Live commentator and former pro golfer Ned Michaels for a mix of golf and markets — previewing the Tour Championship and the PGA Tour's new 2028 relegation-style format, then digging into Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address as Fed chair, Scott Bessent's yen/Treasury interventions, Danny's case for gold and gold miners, energy infrastructure and cannabis plays, the AI capex debate, and government shutdown odds — closing out with golf and Kalshi picks of the week.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Richard Tromans of Artificial Lawyer is back with Zach and on the attack as they square up over whether massive Legal AI funding, truly signals systemic transformation. They then discuss whether these massive sums of money are hitting a tipping point and what could happen if the levee breaks. Maybe the legal industry is simply running in place.  In this Episode: 00:00  Zach's Hot Disruptive Legal Take 00:42  Could Harvey be Valued at $16B? 01:50   Legal AI Fatigue 03:20  Harvey, Legora and The Big Short? 08:46  Legal AI a Luxury Handbag Market? 10:31   AI Wizards and Muggles in Big Law  13:35   The Seeds of Systemic AI Impact 21:36   Valuations Signal Technology is Essential In Legal Service Delivery 23:02   Jevons Paradox and the Volume of Modern Contracts 30:08   AI Still Needs Daycare 36:48   “New Mod” and “AI First” Firms are Pressuring Big Law 44:18   Is the Market Wrong on TR/Lexis 49:48   Are Chief AI Officers CINOs Differently Packaged?   Subscribe to Zach's newsletter https://www.legallydisrupted.com/ Follow Zach on X https://x.com/ZachAbramowitz?lang=en Engage Killer Whale Strategies https://www.killerwhalestrategies.com Learn more about Richard - tromansconsulting.com, artificiallawyer.com  Follow Richard - linkedin.com/in/artificiallawyer, https://x.com/ArtificialLawya

Serena Morones on Forensic Accounting, Mentoring, and Using AI to Find Fraud FasterPodcast host Kelly interviews Serena Morones of Morones Analytics about fraud, forensic accounting, and her career path. In a speed round, Morones says she'd most like to have a meal with Robert Jesenick, the CEO behind Oregon's largest Ponzi scheme (Aequitas), to understand how rationalization and the “slippery slope” begin. They discuss gender patterns in fraud: women more often in classic embezzlement/bookkeeper cases, men more often in complex multi-entity schemes and investment fraud with larger dollar amounts. Morones recounts shifting from plans for law school to forensic accounting after seeing litigation-support work at Pricewaterhouse, emphasizing creativity, communication, and courage. She describes monthly group mentoring sessions and her focus on credibility and truth-telling among expert witnesses. Morones also shares her sports photography hobby and explains how AI is improving investigations by speeding document analysis and visualization, with a staff member dedicated to tool development. She notes she most enjoys investment fraud cases, recommends “Mr. Bates vs the Post Office” and “The Big Short,” and encourages young professionals to pursue the field for justice while staying committed to truth in court.00:00 Welcome Serena Morones00:45 Meal With a Fraudster04:14 Men vs Women Theft08:29 Building Morones Analytics13:24 Creativity in Forensics17:33 Mentoring the Next Gen20:59 Sports Photography Outlet22:39 AI in Forensic Accounting32:47 Favorite Case Types34:54 Fraud in Pop Culture38:07 Gerry Spence Truth Lesson40:13 Career Advice and WrapConnect with Serena:https://www.linkedin.com/in/serenamorones/https://moronesanalytics.com/team/serena-morones/

Steven Song is the founder and CEO of Diald, an AI-powered decision intelligence platform for commercial real estate. Before founding Diald, Steven worked on both the investing and development sides of real estate, and built his career across architecture and urban planning, training at Carnegie Mellon and the University of Pennsylvania. He was a founding principal at SCAAA, a global strategy, planning, and design firm, and is a partner at Axle Companies, a family office focused on real estate investment and social impact ventures. Steven is based in Los Angeles.(02:26) Why CRE Decisions Are Still Judgment-Driven (04:41) The Signal That Killed an Atlantic City Deal (07:44) Contextual Drift: The Risk Nobody Models(10:20) Diald's approach (11:59) AI Token Costs and Asking Better Questions (14:27) Tools vs. Workflows (15:52) Diald's Underwriting (17:58) Killing Bad Deals Earlier (19:18) How AI Upgrades the Analyst Role (20:44) Where General Purpose AI Fails at Underwriting (24:23) Does AI Make CRE More Efficient or More Competitive (26:02) What Underwriting Looks Like in 5 Years (27:14) Where Human Judgment Still Matters (29:06) The Local Signals Investors Miss (31:15) Collaboration Superpower: Denise Scott Brown and Reyner Banham

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT Sonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital's reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jevons paradox) potentially sustaining aggregate spend and CapEx. They address rising APAC innovation, why frontier labs pursue IPOs amid heavy cash burn and broad access to debt and equity, and the new NVIDIA-led $500B compute financing platform as Wall Street crowds into AI while investors struggle to diversify as infrastructure, power, and data centers converge. They discuss abundant 2026 liquidity that may tighten, oil's impact on consumers and second-half caution, hedge fund crowding and the situational awareness leverage unwind, valuation dispersion (semis vs financials/utilities), and rate risks including Treasury basis-trade leverage, a 10-year yield range of 4–4.8%, Japan's carry trade, and selective interest in Japan and parts of APAC for international exposure. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses3 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTSonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital's reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jevons paradox) potentially sustaining aggregate spend and CapEx. They address rising APAC innovation, why frontier labs pursue IPOs amid heavy cash burn and broad access to debt and equity, and the new NVIDIA-led $500B compute financing platform as Wall Street crowds into AI while investors struggle to diversify as infrastructure, power, and data centers converge. They discuss abundant 2026 liquidity that may tighten, oil's impact on consumers and second-half caution, hedge fund crowding and the situational awareness leverage unwind, valuation dispersion (semis vs financials/utilities), and rate risks including Treasury basis-trade leverage, a 10-year yield range of 4–4.8%, Japan's carry trade, and selective interest in Japan and parts of APAC for international exposure.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Investor Steve Eisman of “Big Short” fame delivers an AI bubble warning, coming on the heels of Nvidia's $500 billion financing deal with top firms on Wall Street. The traders make sense of the mega-deals playing out in tech now. Then, economist Joe Lavorgna lays out his expectations for tomorrow's CPI report—and why the former counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessent thinks the Fed should hike interest rates now. Plus, all the headlines from CoreWeave earnings, On Holding's worst day on record and the Options Action ahead of Cisco results. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are heading for Crash of '87 repeat? Michael Burry thinks that could be the case as the Big Short investor sees a number of parallels. One that most people wouldn't necessarily think of just reared its ugly head again. The cockroaches are back. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/michael-burry-bets-against-rally-we-are-near-a-major-top.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-02/jefferies-faces-fresh-trouble-at-fund-it-was-already-shutteringhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-04/credit-braces-for-fallen-angels-as-100-billion-trades-like-junkhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

We continue to be divisive in this third week of “Everyone is Stupid Except For Me” with maybe the most polarizing pick yet from Curtis: Scott Derrickson's 2014 procedural exorcism film DELIVER US FROM EVIL. In route to our showdown with cops and devils, we discuss some summertime activities, adding water to Curtis, our SHUDcast Approved process, and Christopher Nolan's historical extravaganza, THE ODYSSEY!   Go to patreon.com/SHUDcast where you can sign up for all kinds of extra goodies!   00:00-9:00ish - Intros: Curtis in water, our SHUDcast Approved process.   9:00-34:00ish - The other stuff we watched this time!   Cody - Deathstalker II, Evil Dead Burn, Nope, The Odyssey, The Revenant, The Northman   Curtis - Evil Dead Burn, The Odyssey, Blackberry, Chain Reactions   Lucas - The Odyssey, The Prestige, Gone Girl, Barbie, The Big Short, The Invite   34:00ish-1:14:00ish - DELIVER US FROM EVIL - SHUDdown and discussion!   1:14:00ish-End - The fourth and final pick of “Everyone is Stupid Except For Me” brought to you by Austin!

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi's prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi's research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTOn this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi's prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi's research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The summer is for blockbusters and big budget movies, but in between there are plenty of smaller, independent films to be found. One to keep an eye out for is "Westhampton," a film from director and Emmywinner Christian Nilsson that stars Finn Wittrock ("American Horror Story," "The Big Short") and RJ Mitte, best know as Walter White Jr. in "Breaking Bad." In this episode, co-host Bruce Miller talks to all three about the film before he and co-host Terry Lipshetz talk about the new HBO docuseries "The Man Will Burn," which looks at the evolution of Burning Man. About the show Streamed & Screened is a podcast about movies and TV hosted by Bruce Miller, a longtime entertainment reporter who is the retired editor of the Sioux City Journal in Iowa and Terry Lipshetz, managing editor of the National Newsroom for Lee Enterprises based in Madison, Wisconsin. The show was named Best Podcast in the 2025 Iowa Better Newspaper Contest. Theme music Thunder City by Lunareh, used under license from Soundstripe. YouTube clearance: FV694ULMCJQDG0IY

John Rubino joins Soar Financially to discuss the growing risks surrounding the AI bubble, private credit and global markets. He explains why trouble in AI could spread into major banks, why precious metals miners remain financially strong, and where he sees opportunities across gold and silver. #Gold #silver #preciousmetals ----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

This week we dug into the Maduro kidnapping as the entry point for something much bigger—the Cold War racism and corporate vengeance that has driven U.S. Policy toward Venezuela for decades, why there has never actually been a socialist government anywhere on earth, and why the American left needs to get its definitions straight before the right keeps winning that argument by default. Then we checked back in on AI concentration risk, where the hyperscalers are now issuing long-dated debt at spreads approaching junk bond territory, which tells you what the market actually thinks about pinning the entire economy on a technology nobody has fully defined yet. Chapters Intro: 00:00:38 Quick Takes: 00:01:49 Max Notes: 00:09:36 Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:28:31 Chart of the Week: 00:31:25 Headlines: 00:33:28 Resources The Economist: An interview with Elon Musk The Economist: Elon Musk on AI: humans will no longer be in control in ten years LastWeekTonight: Trump & Crypto Molly White Diario AS: Trump’s Top 10 Jokes at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner CNBC Television: ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman: Market will have ‘a big correction’ if AI doesn’t succeed Amnesty International: Facts and figures: Regularization and protection of Venezuelan nationals in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile Migration Policy Institute: Venezuelan Immigrants in the United States USA Today: Harris’ border work was on ‘root causes’ of migration; she wasn’t in charge | Fact check GDN Online: Venezuela to sell up to 10% of shares in some state companies - Maduro Reuters: Exxon awarded $908 million in Venezuela dispute The New York Times: How Marco Rubio Is Running Venezuela From Afar The Real News Network: US provides $300 million in earthquake recovery money to Venezuela while sitting on $8 billion in stolen oil wealth The New York Times: With $8 Billion in Venezuelan Oil Money, U.S. Gives $300 Million in Quake Aid Euro News: Venezuela calls for release of frozen assets to help earthquake recovery efforts Current Affairs: Socialists Humiliate Clueless NewsNation Host Bloomberg: Big Tech Debt Flood Is Taking Over Risk In Market: Credit Weekly Jacobin: The Cockroach Protests Are Reviving India’s Ailing Democracy The Progressive: Heat Waves Show Climate Change Is Here Truthdig: The Monty Python Election: Binface vs. Mr. Brexit Book Love Anderson M Bean: Venezuela in Crisis: Socialist Perspectives UNFTR Resources Video: On The Record 7-28-26 (Crushing Venezuela | Trump Bombs | Elon Blows | Socialism.) Essay: Socialism. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reliving High School Underdogs, and Finding Your Place with Angus Star CHARLIE TALBERT (Angus, Lisa Frankenstein, Shelby Oaks, The Big Short, Where the Crawdads Sing, Ella McCay)! Grab your flannel, turn up your walkman, and fire up the time machine! This week on The DizRadio Show, we are stepping right back into the glorious decade of the 1990s to revisit a story that practically every single one of us can relate to, navigating the absolute obstacle course of high school and trying to find where you truly belong. Back then a little movie came along that gave a massive voice to the underdogs, the outsiders, and anyone who ever felt like they didn't fit into a pre-packaged box. That movie was Angus. And to help us break down why this film still hits so close to home, we are joined by the man who brought that unforgettable title character to life, the brilliant, talented, and gracious CHARLIE TALBERT! Hailing right from Kenosha, Wisconsin, Charlie has one of the absolute best Hollywood discovery stories of all time, he was famously spotted standing in line at a local Wendy's before being thrust into the spotlight for his very first acting role ever. Charlie opens up about what it was really like going from a regular Wisconsin kid in a fast-food line to leading a major feature film. Why the character and the film's message continue to resonate so deeply with audiences decades later. And working alongside a film that features one of the defining alternative rock soundtracks of the era. He also is diving into his roles in fan favorites like the horror-comedy Lisa Frankenstein and working with director Zelda Williams, Where the Crawdads Sing, The Big Short, and upcoming projects like Shelby Oaks and Ella McCay. Also how he has actively shifted his career path to embrace complex, adult roles beyond the goofy guy archetype of his early days. Then of course, it wouldn't be The DizRadio Show without your host Jonathan rambling on about the stuff we all love! This week, Jonathan is diving deep into the heart of underdog cinema. He breaks down why Angus strikes such a personal chord, how the movie differs in key ways from the original short story by Chris Crutcher, and why that legendary soundtrack, packed with Green Day, Weezer, the Goo Goo Dolls, and Love Spit Love, helped define the entire alt-rock era of the era. Ready to head back to High School? So enjoy the Nostalgia, the Magic, the Wonder, and the Memories with The DizRadio Show "A Pop Culture Celebrity Guest Show"!

Learn more about Unlimited ETFs: https://unlimitedetfs.com/Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTClick the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Danny welcomes back Bob Elliott, author of Nonconsensus and Co-Founder/CEO/CIO of Unlimited, to discuss the Fed meeting, oil volatility tied to Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, and implications for inflation. Elliott expects a hawkish hold, notes inflation has stayed above target for years, and argues oil risks are underpriced given shrinking strategic reserves and potential demand destruction. He explains the recent rise in long-term yields is driven by higher real rates, reflecting capital demand from AI capex and deficits, and says 30-year TIPS near 3% real yields look attractive versus stretched equities. Gold has held steady despite higher real rates amid strong Chinese and central-bank demand. They discuss heavy equity and bond supply, a frozen housing market, weakening consumer tailwinds as tax-refund support fades, limited systemic risk from private credit but poor forward returns, leverage and passive-market structure issues, and China's low-growth malaise alongside aggressive low-cost AI competition. The episode ends with Kalshi picks: unchanged rates with at least one dissenter, no 2026 rate hikes, and S&P 500 not reaching 8,000 in 2026.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The CNBC Business News Update with Jessica Ettinger features market numbers & news with CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business names. Updated throughout the business day. Visit CNBC.com for more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold's pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI's CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil's election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 3:00 - The Fed 8:30 - Energy 16:30 - Gold 23:30 - AI & Jobs 31:30 - Elections & National Debt 41:30 - British Open Picks -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTClick the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold's pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI's CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil's election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer.Timecodes0:00 - Intro3:00 - The Fed8:30 - Energy16:30 - Gold23:30 - AI & Jobs31:30 - Elections & National Debt41:30 - British Open Picks--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dan Mosher is the CEO of DealGround, an AI-native platform helping commercial real estate brokers and investors find deals faster by organizing property data, identifying opportunities, and connecting directly with property owners. A veteran Silicon Valley entrepreneur, operator, and investor, Dan previously built and led the Merchant team at Postmates through its acquisition by Uber, served as President of Presto, and helped scale BrightRoll tenfold before its acquisition by Yahoo. Live from ICSC+Proptech in Las Vegas.(01:09) AI Survey with FirstAmerican (03:07) How DealGround Helps Brokers Find More Deals (06:08) Why AI Adoption Outpaces Trust (10:14) MCPs, Integrations & Fitting Into Broker Workflows

Adam McKay's passion project that changed the direction of his career. We break down how The Other Guys was his first attempt at calling out the 2008 financial crisis through comedy… and when nobody took it seriously, he made this. We get into why cutting away to Margot Robbie in a bathtub to explain mortgage backed securities is actually Adam McKay making fun of the audience. We discuss how Brad Pitt's Plan B Entertainment quietly made this movie possible after already producing Moneyball from the same author. And we break down why Ryan Gosling's performance as Jared Vennett might be the most underrated thing in the entire film.Chapters:00:00 ANNOUCEMENTS & Intro2:02 Adam McKay finally being fr this time9:25 What the hell is even going on in this movie17:17 Michael Burry's next big prediction21:26 Why Adam McKay wanted to make this movie26:25 Josh Safdie needs to take some notes31:47 What happened in the Morgan Stanley scene?35:12 Brad Pitt making money moves38:14 How the cast came to be & stories from their prep52:21 Why the style is perfect for the movie59:04 Our final thoughts

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: our episode on Soderbergh's 2019 Panama Papers infotainment film THE LAUNDROMAT. Joining us to parse this deeply odd "comedic" "look" into the mysterious world of offshore finance is co-host of the Michael & Us podcast and author of The Dead Center: Reflections on Liberalism and Democracy After the End of History, Luke Savage! Together we get to the bottom of Soderbergh and Scott Z. Burns' decision to give the BIG SHORT treatment to Jake Bernstein's entirely unfunny nonfiction book Secrecy World, and find in the film a very familiar liberal disinterest in the transformative potential of moments like the Panama Papers leak. Great conversation, check it out (whether or not you've seen the pretty lousy movie)! Note: We had a small technical problem in the last 20 minutes or so, and our guest's audio quality is notably lower but still perfectly listenable for the end of the episode. We blame transnational gangs of malefactors. Further Reading: Secrecy World: Inside the Panama Papers Investigation of Illicit Money Networks and the Global Elite by Jake Bernstein The Dead Center: Reflections on Liberalism and Democracy After the End of History by Luke Savage The Panama Papers: Breaking the Story of How the Rich and Powerful Hide Their Money by Bastian Obermayer and Frederik Obermaier The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The Scourge of Tax Havens by Gabriel Zucman  "The Dirty Problems with Operation Car Wash" by Vincent Bevins: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/anti-corruption-crusades-paved-way-bolsonaro/596449/ "'Keep It Confidential': The Secret History of U.S. Involvement in Brazil's Scandal-Wracked Operation Car Wash" by Andrew Fishman, Natalia Viana, & Maryam Saleh: https://theintercept.com/2020/03/12/united-states-justice-department-brazil-car-wash-lava-jato-international-treaty/ "Steven Soderbergh: On His New Film 'The Laundromat' And What The Panama Papers Teach Us" by Risa Sarachan: https://www.forbes.com/sites/risasarachan/2019/10/17/steven-soderbergh-on-his-new-film-the-laundromat-and-what-the-panama-papers-teach-us/ "Meryl Streep Says Financial Corruption in 'Laundromat' Is a 'Black-Hearted Joke'" by Ariston Anderson: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/venice-2019-meryl-streep-steven-soderbergh-laundromat-1235958/  Further Viewing: THE INSIDER (Mann, 1999) WE STEAL SECRETS: THE STORY OF WIKILEAKS (Gibney, 2013) WILD TALES (Szifron, 2014) THE BIG SHORT (McKay, 2015) SPOTLIGHT (McCarthy, 2015) THE REPORT (Burns, 2019) CAUGHT BY THE TIDES (Jia, 2024) Follow Luke Savage: https://x.com/LukewSavage https://www.lukewsavage.com/ https://www.patreon.com/cw/michaelandus   Follow Pod Casty For Me: https://www.podcastyforme.com/ https://twitter.com/podcastyforme https://www.instagram.com/podcastyforme/ https://bsky.app/profile/podcastyforme.bsky.social https://www.youtube.com/@podcastyforme Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PodCastyForMe Artwork by Jeremy Allison: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyallisonart Produced by Ian Rhine and Jake Serwin. Additional production by Ryan Torgeson. 

How to submit a public comment to the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/how-submit-commentDanny interviews Joe Saluzzi, partner and co-founder of Themis Trading, about worsening U.S. market structure since 2023 and recent SEC and congressional actions. Saluzzi explains Themis's conflict-free agency model focused on best execution and minimizing information leakage, noting continued HFT activity and his preference for IEX for discretion. They discuss how retail trading now exceeds 25% of volume, how most retail orders are internalized via payment for order flow, and how data feeds can flag retail orders. Saluzzi argues the Consolidated Audit Trail, created after the 2010 flash crash to detect manipulation and insider trading, has been intentionally delayed and is being stripped of useful information. He warns proposed changes to Rule 611 (order protection/NBBO) could enable tokenization venues and weaken protections, while delays to Rule 610 access-fee reductions preserve incentives tied to rebates and PFOF. He urges investors to file SEC comment letters and press brokers on best execution.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Other Guys is one of those comedy staples that will live forever in the comedy movie hall of fame. We break down why Will Ferrell playing the put together guy in the room, instead of the usual idiot, is one of the best running jokes he's ever done. We get into how Adam McKay hid real commentary on the 2008 financial crisis inside one of his dumbest, funniest comedies, and how that satire ended up being the first step toward him making The Big Short. We also talk about the deleted ending featuring Derek Jeter that hinted at a sequel that never happened. And we discuss why this movie never gets brought up in comedy conversations despite being one of the most quotable films Will Ferrell has ever made.Chapters:00:00 Announcements0:41 The ultimate comedy duo7:00 The Adam McKay Will Ferrell breakup11:50 Will Ferrell leveling up Mark Wahlberg's comedy18:20 How The Other Guys creates funny scenes21:38 Greatest opening to a comedy movie25:12 Adam McKay covering real topics disguised as a comedy30:24 The finances of The Other Guys34:41 Donald Trump almost made it in the movie37:01 Our favorite moments from this movie51:03 Dirty Mike and Boys outtakes54:54 Our final thoughts

It's one of the greatest films ever made. Doug has seen it more times than he can count. And for years, he's been waiting for the moment his daughter was ready. This Father's Day weekend, it happened, but not before they worked their way through Batman Begins first. The Batman Begins debrief alone is worth the price of admission: Natalie still doesn't understand why Bruce Wayne's parents had to die and genuinely wondered whether Batman was going to kill Rachel and Alfred in the film. She also thought that Batman can, apparently, talk to bats. Then came The Dark Knight. Doug prepped her on the Joker's philosophy, the importance of Batman's no-kill rule, and the practical effects behind the hospital explosion, which Doug and Jill actually witnessed being filmed when they lived downtown Chicago. Natalie handled the pencil scene with more composure than expected. She processed the ferry sequence. She understood the stakes, and spent the entire climax waiting for Bane to show up. And when it was over, she looked at her dad and said: "I see why you like it." Ten years. Worth every second. Also this episode: a genuinely great question — if you could go back to high school or college and take one class again with everything you know now, which class would you choose? Justin picks social studies, psychology, astronomy, and a very specific European history class he completely wasted. Doug picks management 101 with a professor he truly despised and would absolutely challenge every single day, and seventh grade PE, where his coach regularly called him names that would end careers today. Plot twist: years later, that same coach applied for a job at Doug's brother's school. Doug's brother said no. Justice is real. Plus: a dump truck parked in front of a blind hill with "Trust in the Lord" written on the back, Jesus as a Marvel Rivals support player, and Meccha Chameleon — a $6 Steam prop hunt game where you paint yourself to blend into the scenery and it is immediately one of the best six dollars Doug has ever spent. Justin needs a PC. Doug has thoughts. The movie audio clip guessing game returns with quotes from Wall Street, The Big Short, and The Golden Child including one of the most specific movie pulls in the history of this show. This week's recommendations:

Find James Lavish's SubStack Here: https://www.jameslavish.com/ Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ In this episode of On the Tape, Danny Moses welcomes James Lavish back to the show for a wide-ranging conversation that goes well beyond Bitcoin. Drawing on his background trading risk arbitrage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and running the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, James breaks down why he believes the Fed and Treasury are "trapped" by a looming wall of debt—roughly $14 trillion rolling over in the next year on top of ongoing $2 trillion deficits—and what that means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Danny and James dig into Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and his more hawkish-but-mostly-bark tone, the odds of a July rate hike, and how the war and energy prices are feeding back into inflation. They explore the "hot ball of money" chasing AI and the SpaceX IPO, the K-shaped economy driving retail toward speculative bets, and why James sees a coming rotation of capital out of high-flying AI names and back into Bitcoin. The two also debate Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) at length—whether its leverage and perpetual preferred structure leave Saylor in a "trap" or a position of strength—with James arguing the balance sheet concerns are overblown if you believe in Bitcoin long term. James shares how his fund approaches Bitcoin-adjacent energy and AI investments, and Danny closes with his Kalshi picks of the week. --ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Let's get depressed, but in a fun way! From director Adam McKay comes the story of the 2008 crash. If you lived through it, this movie is sure to make you grind your teeth. Join Jim and A.Ron as they discuss the crash, the fallout, and where we are at today. Bald Move Prestige - An Inconvenient Truth (2006) 2008 Financial Crisis Wikipedia Garys Economics YouTube Channel The Trading Game Makers and Takers Register to vote here! https://www.vote411.org/ Hey there!  Check out https://support.baldmove.com/ to find out how you can gain access to ALL of our premium content, as well as ad-free versions of the podcasts! Join the Club! Join the discussion:  Email | Discord | Reddit | Forums Follow us: Twitch | YouTube | Twitter  |  Instagram  |  Facebook Leave Us A Review on Apple Podcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Find James Lavish's SubStack Here: https://www.jameslavish.com/Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/In this episode of On the Tape, Danny Moses welcomes James Lavish back to the show for a wide-ranging conversation that goes well beyond Bitcoin. Drawing on his background trading risk arbitrage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and running the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, James breaks down why he believes the Fed and Treasury are "trapped" by a looming wall of debt—roughly $14 trillion rolling over in the next year on top of ongoing $2 trillion deficits—and what that means for rates, inflation, and the dollar.Danny and James dig into Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and his more hawkish-but-mostly-bark tone, the odds of a July rate hike, and how the war and energy prices are feeding back into inflation. They explore the "hot ball of money" chasing AI and the SpaceX IPO, the K-shaped economy driving retail toward speculative bets, and why James sees a coming rotation of capital out of high-flying AI names and back into Bitcoin.The two also debate Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) at length—whether its leverage and perpetual preferred structure leave Saylor in a "trap" or a position of strength—with James arguing the balance sheet concerns are overblown if you believe in Bitcoin long term. James shares how his fund approaches Bitcoin-adjacent energy and AI investments, and Danny closes with his Kalshi picks of the week.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Patrick McKenzie reads from his 2022 Bits About Money essay on mortgages, making the case that a mortgage is best understood as a manufactured product, not a simple loan between a bank and a customer. He walks through the assembly line behind every home loan, the loan officer and back-office staff who build the 700-page document. Then he traces the supply chain it gets sold into, where GSEs insure against non-payment risk, servicers buy the right to collect monthly checks, and pension funds and other private capital end up holding the economic exposure, because they want it more than banks do.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/mortgages/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & Granola Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com.If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:Mortgages are a manufactured product: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/mortgages-are-a-manufactured-product/ The 30-Year Mortgage is an Intrinsically Toxic Product: https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-30-year-mortgage-is-an-intrinsically-toxic-product-200c901746a Michael Lewis' The Big Short: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827 –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:26) Mortgages are a manufactured product(04:19) Who manufactures mortgages?(07:08) Who buys mortgages?(07:42) The risk of non-payment(10:08) Sponsor: Mercury | Granola(14:35) The risk of failing to service a mortgage correctly(17:51) Every other risk you could imagine, of which there are many(24:04) Scratching the tip of the iceberg(25:10) More about flow meters(26:24) Wrap

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/Danny Moses sits down with Chris Verrone, Chief Market Strategist and Head of Technical & Macro Research at Strategas, for a wide-ranging conversation on a market that keeps shrugging off every shock thrown at it. Chris breaks down why he's calling this the "hit me again" market — tariffs, an energy shock, war — and none of it has seemed to matter.They dig into improving market breadth (65% of stocks above their 200-day, a far cry from the narrow 2000 peak), the rotation question of where money goes if it leaves tech, memory, and semis, and why Chris is running a deliberately balanced book into healthcare, financials, and consumer. Plus: Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting and why "no cuts are the new Fed cuts," the path of financial deregulation and a coming wave of bank M&A, the $40 trillion debt question and why the bond market is the only arbiter that matters, his contrarian bearish gold call, and a healthy dose of skepticism on parabolic AI and SpaceX-style valuations — "put the chips in your pocket."Follow Chris on X: https://x.com/verrone_chris?lang=enFollow Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-verrone-6b1ab4111--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andreas Rotenberg is Co-founder and COO of Pulley, an AI-powered permitting platform helping developers and operators move projects through approvals faster. Before Pulley, he was part of the team at Honest Buildings through its acquisition, then served as Chief of Staff at Procore through its IPO. Pulley has supported over $15 billion in projects approved across the U.S. Live from ICSC+Proptech in Las Vegas.(0:00) - First ever ICSC+Proptech live podcast(1:47) - Why Permitting Is a Growing Bottleneck(2:41) - What's Happening During Permitting Timelines(4:13) - Jurisdictional Complexity Across the U.S.(5:08) - What CRE Teams Underestimate About Permitting(7:35) - Why Pulley(8:18) - The Origin Story(10:53) - Combining Technology with Local Expertise(14:26) - Where AI Creates Real Value in Permitting(17:36) - Trust, Hallucinations & Accuracy(19:07) - Municipalities & Public Sector Modernization(20:40) - Second & Third Order Effects of Faster Permitting(22:41) - Collaboration Superpower: Vaclav Smil

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Danny Moses is joined by Dan Nathan to break down a market that sold off on good news — strong jobs data, sticky inflation, and a Fed whose hands look increasingly tied heading into the CPI print. The guys dig into why the AI and data-center build has become the entire economy, and what a rotation out of those names would actually mean for growth. From there: Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and how Danny is playing the odds of a dissenting vote, the long-awaited SpaceX IPO and the fine print behind it — index-inclusion mechanics, the timing of the Anthropic and Google compute deals, the 90-day exit clauses, and the question of who's left to buy once endowments and retail are already in. They close on two vice trades worth watching: Trulieve's move to the NYSE as cannabis quietly notches its biggest win in years, and how prediction markets like Kalshi are reshaping the data-provider landscape under DraftKings, FanDuel, and Flutter. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In this episode, we speak with Brian Barlow, Co-Founder and CEO of Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners (SIP), a company focused on building and scaling businesses that support the next generation of critical energy and digital infrastructure. As demand for energy and computing power continues to grow, existing infrastructure systems are facing increasing strain. SIP develops businesses and projects designed to help modernize these systems and enable more intelligent, scalable infrastructure for the future. Brian has spent more than three decades as a private markets investor across technology and infrastructure. Prior to co-founding SIP, he served as Director of Infrastructure Investments for Alphabet's urban innovation platform.  Prior to that, he was a Managing director at American Infrastructure Funds.  Earlier, Brian was a senior member of Scion Capital, the investment firm founded by Dr. Michael Burry and featured in The Big Short. I am your host, RJ Lumba. We hope you enjoy the show. If you like the episode, click to follow.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/Danny Moses is joined by Dan Nathan to break down a market that sold off on good news — strong jobs data, sticky inflation, and a Fed whose hands look increasingly tied heading into the CPI print. The guys dig into why the AI and data-center build has become the entire economy, and what a rotation out of those names would actually mean for growth.From there: Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and how Danny is playing the odds of a dissenting vote, the long-awaited SpaceX IPO and the fine print behind it — index-inclusion mechanics, the timing of the Anthropic and Google compute deals, the 90-day exit clauses, and the question of who's left to buy once endowments and retail are already in. They close on two vice trades worth watching: Trulieve's move to the NYSE as cannabis quietly notches its biggest win in years, and how prediction markets like Kalshi are reshaping the data-provider landscape under DraftKings, FanDuel, and Flutter.Timecodes0:00 - Macro Picture5:00 - Fed Speak9:10 - SpaceX IPO14:15 - Vice Stocks--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Danny Moses interviews Larry McDonald on how several prior calls played out, including regulatory relief for banks, a rotation into hard assets and energy, and AI-linked nuclear exposure via NUKZ. McDonald argues the economy is increasingly K-shaped: wealthy consumers benefit from higher money-market yields and AI CapEx, while consumer-facing companies like McDonald's, Home Depot, and retailers weaken, pushing money into crowded tech trades. They discuss risks from massive AI/space IPOs entering indexes, the “dark side” of passive investing, and the potential for an inflation rebound driven by oil, summer demand, and Middle East disruptions, which could spur rotation from tech into commodities. McDonald outlines constraints from rising debt interest costs, a stagflation risk, a plan to force banks to buy Treasuries, and opportunities in gold miners and uranium amid looming supply deficits, plus election-driven value setups in Brazil. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Have you hear of the False Claims Act? This whistleblower statute recovers $2–6 billion per year for taxpayers. But most of us have never heard of it. Well, If you report fraud against the government (a "qui tam" action) and the government recovers, the whistleblower receives 15–25% of the recovery.Sam Buffone is our guest on this episode of Fraudish, he is whistleblower attorney and founder of the Buffone Law Group. Sam spent 9 years at the Department of Justice and helped recover $3 billion in civil fraud enforcement. Kelly met him at the Maryland ACFE conference after being impressed by his last-minute fill-in presentation.Sam describes his role as a translator: whistleblowers come to him feeling gaslit, with scattershot observations, and he packages their experience into something that speaks the government's language and directs investigative attention. Cases routinely take years. He works on contingency (no recovery = no fee), which is essential since whistleblowers rarely have the budget to fight corporations.Sam doesn't advertise. Whistleblower clients are scared, isolated, and often don't even know whistleblower attorneys exist as a specialty. He relies on referrals to find the right clients. Whistleblower Programs to KnowSam closed with a rundown of the major programs:False Claims Act — government/healthcare fraud (qui tam)SEC — securities fraudCFTC — commodities and crypto fraudIRS — tax fraudFinCEN — financial crimes, sanctions evasionDOJ Antitrust — illegal cartels (growing)DOJ Criminal Division — catch-all programNHTSA — auto safety/recall issuesResources & References MentionedGoing Infinite by Michael Lewis (FTX/SBF)Who Is Government? compiled by Michael Lewis (long-form essays on public servants)The Big Short (film)My Cousin Vinny — Sam's pick for most legally accurate movieMichael Clayton (film)Tyler Schultz (Theranos whistleblower)James Holzrichter (whistleblower case)Erin BrockovichConnect with Sam BuffoneBuffone Law Group— whistleblower and civil fraud enforcement. Sam encourages anyone who sees something wrong to reach out; initial consultations are free given the contingency model.Links mentioned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Cousin_Vinnyhttps://www.taf.org/https://www.justice.gov/criminal/criminal-vns/case/united-states-v-catherine-kissick

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the Boock Report: https://boockreport.com On this episode of On the Tape, host Danny Moses sits down with returning guest Peter Boockvar — independent economist, market strategist, and CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners — for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces shaping today's markets. Peter and Danny dig into why yields finally started mattering to equity investors, the self-fulfilling momentum behind the AI trade, and China's rapid rise as a formidable competitor in EVs, robotics, semiconductors, and AI — and what that means for U.S. tech dominance. They also tackle the housing affordability crisis, the Fed's rate path, rising unemployment risk, and whether the U.S. consumer can hold up. Plus, Danny runs Peter through a series of event contract odds — from Fed rate cuts to S&P price targets — for a fast-paced gut-check on where markets are headed. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Today on Stinchfield, we expose one of the biggest financial frauds being pushed on the American people right now: the nonstop doom and gloom about the economy under President Trump. Michael Burry, the man made famous by The Big Short and portrayed as some kind of financial prophet, has spent years warning of collapse after collapse after collapse. The problem? He keeps getting it wrong. America didn’t implode. The markets didn’t permanently crash. And once again, the fear merchants are trying to convince you that disaster is around the corner. But according to Kip Herriage, this negativity campaign is no accident. Herriage says Burry and the financial elites pushing economic panic are part of a broader psyop designed to undermine confidence in President Trump, American capitalism, and the country’s economic resurgence. While the media screams recession, Kip Herriage and VRA Insider are predicting the exact opposite: a generational bull market fueled by Trump’s economic doctrine, exploding innovation, massive liquidity, and America First policies that are reigniting growth. The fear crowd wants Americans scared, cautious, and sitting on the sidelines. But what if this is actually the beginning of one of the greatest wealth creation periods in modern history? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode might work better visually! Click here to watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/F6p1s00YIck Carter Worth is BACK with the WAWD Substack boys for another edition of "Bourbon & Charts" Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - SPX & Semis 14:30 - Gold, $AEM & Copper 23:00 - Yields 30:00 - Oil & Energy 36:30 - Single Names -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Money Moves is back as Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell unpack a wild convergence of market signals. The S&P 500 has smashed through the 7,400 mark, locking in the best April in a decade, completely shrugging off geopolitical tensions and historically low consumer sentiment. But not everyone is buying the hype. "Big Short" legend Michael Burry has placed a massive $1 billion short against AI darlings like Palantir and Nvidia. Is a bubble about to burst, or is the AI revolution just getting started?The guys break down why institutional giants like Blackstone are doubling down on AI infrastructure, preview the incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh replacing Jerome Powell, and discuss whether a July rate cut is still in the cards. Plus, updates on the 10 million single-family home shortage, surging multifamily vacancies, and why Ryan believes Ethereum's volume will eventually flip Bitcoin.Episode HighlightsMichael Burry's Billion-Dollar Short: Analyzing Burry's massive bets against Nvidia and Palantir, and why Ryan argues the AI sector has real capital and utility backing it up, unlike the 2008 housing crisis.The S&P 500 Melt-Up: Unpacking the market's record-breaking run to 7,400, driven by broad participation beyond just the "Magnificent Seven."Fed Chair Shakeup: Jerome Powell is stepping down May 15th. What Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation and hawkish history mean for the highly anticipated July rate cut.Geopolitical Chess: Trump is taking Elon Musk and Tim Cook to meet with China's Xi Jinping, while Russia signals a ceasefire in Ukraine.Real Estate Realities: Why the US is short 10 million single-family homes, the impact of 13-18% hard money rates, and Blackstone's $150 billion pivot into data center REITs.Crypto Watch: Bitcoin hovers near $81.7k, but Ethereum's trading volume is rapidly closing the gap.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555IIMAGOS INCOME FUND: Full Investor Presentation: Text “INCOME” to 844-447-1555

Join WNYC and Theater Of War for a series of programs hosted by Kai Wright and TOW artistic director Bryan Doerries that re-imagine works of journalism in innovative and engaging ways, including performances by acclaimed actors.  Actors Adepero Oduye (12 Years a Slave, Pariah, The Big Short) and Jumaane Williams (NYC Public Advocate) performed “Our Longing for Inconvenience,” a recent essay written by Hanif Abdurraqib for The New Yorker. The essay helped kick off a conversation with WNYC listeners about “falling in love the old fashioned way” in a world mediated by phones and apps. We explored the tension between our desire for convenience and the friction of older technologies — like Walkmans, disposable cameras, and VCRs — that transport us back to less distracted, seemingly more authentic, times. And we talked about strategies for staying present and resisting the allure of instant gratification to feel more alive.