Dave Lee on Investing

After experiencing Tesla's Cybercab in Austin, I think the biggest thing people are missing is the zero-sum game built into Uber. Two people share one environment with different preferences. The driver wants the temperature at 66. I want 72. We have different preferences for music, volume, and whether the windows should be open. My comfort can come at the expense of his—and I don't blame the driver. It's his working environment. Cybercab removes that tug of war. I choose the temperature, play my Spotify, and settle in with my coffee. The car has no competing preferences. I can get comfortable without asking another person to sacrifice their comfort. In this video, I share my firsthand impressions from riding Cybercab in Austin and explain why removing that social tension changes the whole experience. I think people are underestimating how much this matters—and how hard it could make going back to Uber. CHAPTERS 00:00 Walking up to the Cybercab 00:25 A two-minute pickup 01:31 Inside: space, Spotify, and climate controls 03:00 The zero-sum game built into Uber 04:43 Temperature: your comfort vs. the driver's 05:21 Music and volume: another tug of war 06:36 Cleanliness, conversation, and bringing coffee 07:28 Removing the tension changes the service 09:09 Rethinking the passenger experience 10:41 The value of a consistent ride 11:32 Scaling up and my final thoughts #Tesla #Cybercab #RobotaxiSocial

Social

I took two rides in Tesla's Cybercab in Austin, and I'm telling you — this thing exceeded my expectations. The legroom, quiet cabin, huge screen, and freedom to just sit back and enjoy the ride are incredible. But the biggest surprise was how natural it feels with no steering wheel or pedals. There's no empty driver's seat reminding you that someone is missing. It just feels like this is how getting from point A to point B is supposed to work. On my second ride, I reclined my seat and watched my own Cybercab video inside a Cybercab. Half an hour flew by, and I felt refreshed. In this video, I share my first impressions, how the experience compares with a Model Y Robotaxi, and what I'd still improve—including a plusher ride and shorter wait times. I also explain why I think Tesla has reached an amazing milestone for transportation. 00:00 Opening moments 00:59 My first Cybercab ride in Austin 02:14 Legroom, seats, and the massive screen 02:44 Ride quality: what I'd improve 03:37 Spotify and settling into the ride 04:45 Testing the window controls 05:03 Why no steering wheel changes the experience 07:21 Second ride: YouTube, relaxing, and exceeding expectations 09:32 More Cybercab videos and what's next 10:12 What Tesla has pulled off 11:21 Wait times and the potential as Tesla scales Check out my previous Cybercab video for what I learned talking with Tesla's engineers, and subscribe for my next video on the bigger implications. #Tesla #Cybercab #RobotaxiSocial

Tesla's growth has slowed, and the affordable new model many people expected hasn't arrived. Did Tesla abandon its high-volume ambitions—or choose a different path to get there? In this video, I share my theory about why Elon Musk went all in on Cybercab and FSD, what that decision may have cost Tesla in the short term, and how it could lay the foundation for an entirely new lineup of affordable, autonomous vehicles. I explore the tradeoff between building a cheaper conventional Tesla and designing a vehicle around the rider from the ground up. I also outline a six-step path from Cybercab to broader consumer sales and high-volume production. This is my interpretation of Tesla's strategy, with plenty of speculation—not a confirmed product roadmap. Execution, software readiness, and regulatory approval still matter. Would you have built a cheaper Tesla with a steering wheel first, or made the Cybercab bet? Share your thoughts in the comments. 00:00 What happened to Tesla's growth? 02:12 Where is the cheaper Tesla? 04:32 My thesis on Tesla's future 05:15 Cybercab vs. a cheaper conventional Tesla 09:23 Elon's all-in decision 11:05 The complexity of driver controls 11:48 Why focus and urgency matter 14:30 Lessons from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google 19:44 Cybertruck's shortfall 21:17 Model Y and the missing growth vehicle 23:10 How Cybercab could unlock growth 24:06 Step 1: Define the future of transportation 25:06 Step 2: Build the software and vehicle 26:59 Step 3: Prove it works 28:03 Step 4: Obtain regulatory approval 28:32 Step 5: Sell to consumers 29:19 Step 6: Expand the vehicle lineup 31:54 Short-term costs and risks 32:41 Tesla's potential next growth era 35:13 Closing thoughts Social

I attended Tesla's Cybercab launch event in Austin and spent more than two hours speaking with Tesla engineers and examining the technical displays. In this video, I share what I learned about the Cybercab's unboxed assembly process, plastic exterior, brake-by-wire system, interior design, thermal management, drive unit, crash testing, serviceable battery pack, AI hardware, and manufacturing line. Seeing these systems firsthand changed my perspective on Cybercab. This isn't simply a new vehicle—it may form the foundation of Tesla's manufacturing and autonomous-transport strategy for the next decade. I also discuss Tesla's progress with FSD, the expected transition from AI4 to AI5, the advantages of a large Robotaxi network, and what could come next—including Cybervan and future autonomous passenger vehicles. Toward the end, I share a personal update about my family, my wife's health, and why I haven't posted as many videos recently. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction 00:38 Event setup, expectations, and keynote 03:12 Why this launch is a major Tesla milestone 05:37 Unboxed assembly and the six vehicle modules 10:15 Plastic exterior and eliminating the paint shop 11:55 Cybercab body-panel “golden ticket” 13:03 RIM plastic, durability, and cost savings 14:57 Future autonomous passenger vehicles 20:14 Brake-by-wire and modular assembly 24:08 Interior, space, and cabin design 27:27 Exterior details, wheels, and tires 28:23 Version 5 thermal-management system 31:49 Version 5 drive unit 33:54 Crash structure and testing 36:54 Serviceable, semi-structural battery pack 40:55 Integrated ancillary-base electronics 44:49 Broader engineering takeaways 49:07 Tesla AI, LLM lessons, and real-time FSD 50:39 Austin manufacturing capacity 52:19 Cybercab's implications for Tesla's next decade 53:29 Cybervan and future consumer vehicles 54:26 Recent FSD progress 55:42 Coordinating hardware and autonomy software 57:35 Integrating hardware, software, and AI chips 59:21 Robotaxi network effects and competitive advantages 62:42 AI4 constraints and AI5 expectations 66:04 Personal update 66:23 My wife's cancer treatment and outlook 68:07 Family and homeschooling 71:02 Future interests and closing Social

After Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk's comment that the new affordable model is "a Model Y" sent shockwaves through the community, leading to frustration and confusion. Many now believe Tesla's next big vehicle is just a cheaper, stripped-down trim of the current Model Y. In this video, I'll break down why I believe that's wrong. I'll argue that Tesla isn't just removing features from the Model Y. Instead, they are launching a new model on the same platform: a shorter wheelbase Model Y. This move, combined with the recently revealed longer "Model Y L" in China, points to a brilliant 3-tier product strategy, much like Apple's iPhone lineup (Standard, Pro, Pro Max). Join me as I connect the dots and explain my theory on the "Model Y S" (Short), how Tesla can make it significantly cheaper, and why this is a genius move to maximize their existing production lines, expand their market, and navigate the end of the US federal tax credit. Topics Covered in this Video: - Elon Musk's controversial Q2 earnings call comment. - The flaw in the "cheaper trim" argument. - My Theory: The Model Y S (Short), Model Y (Standard), and Model Y L (Long). - Evidence from the new 6-seater Model Y L in China. - How Tesla can reduce the price by $6,000 - $8,000. - Addressing headwinds: The expiring tax credit vs. the increasing demand from FSD improvements. - Tesla's long-term manufacturing and platform strategy. What are your thoughts on Tesla's upcoming affordable model? Let me know in the comments below! Social

In this video, I break down why I think I'll be able to use unsupervised FSD in my own Tesla in Austin before the year is over. - How Tesla's geofenced Robotaxi network is the key. - Creating hyper-realistic simulations of cities like Austin to rapidly train and validate FSD. - The logical steps from safety-monitored Robotaxis to unmanned Robotaxis, and finally, to unsupervised FSD for personal vehicles in those same proven zones. - What "unsupervised" will likely mean at first (hint: you'll probably still be in the driver's seat, but without the nags!). Social

Lots of exciting things happening with Tesla this week. Here's what I cover in my video: 1. Elon Musk's America Party - Risk vs benefit. 2. Robotaxi Race: Waymo vs Tesla - Who will win? 3. Leadership Turnover - Bigger picture. 4. Model Y L for China - Why it's a great move and why I expect another smaller model. 5. xAI Investment - Should Tesla shareholders approve of a Tesla investment in xAI? 6. Bay Area Expansion - Will SF Bay Area get Robotaxi? 7. India Entry - What is Tesla trying to accomplish in India? Social

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

I address the idea of requiring Elon Musk spend a certain number of hours per week on Tesla. I also critique the idea of required the Tesla board to oversee Elon Musk's political activity. Elon has proven himself over and over to be one of the greatest innovators and value-creators of all time. Yet some people want the Tesla Board to micromanage his hours and police his outside activity. This would be a terrible mistake. You don't babysit Elon. You treat him like an adult and give him performance-based compensation tied to long-term ambitious milestones (like market cap, revenue/profit, etc). And then expect him to knock it out of the park like he's done with every other performance-based Tesla compensation plan. Social

I took my wife on three Tesla Robotaxi rides and two Waymo rides in Austin, Texas. I learned a lot from her reaction. Social

If you're interested in Tesla Robotaxi, Tesla AI or Tesla FSD, then you ought to know about James Douma. He's probably the one person who's done the deepest public dives on Tesla FSD and Tesla AI over the years. In fact, over the past 4 years I've published 40+ videos (!) with James Douma on Tesla AI/FSD (they are all on a playlist on my YouTube channel). I first discovered James Douma a long time ago (maybe almost 8-10 years ago?) on a web forum called http://teslamotorsclub.com . Back then it was one of the only places for early Tesla owners and TSLA investors to discuss issues deeply. While I posted about investing topics, James posted about Tesla Autopilot and its hardware but in a way that was more thorough than anybody else. When I started posting YouTube videos years later, I invited him on my channel to hear his thoughts on Tesla Autopilot/FSD. It was a riveting discussion and I was surprised at how much I could learn from him. I invited him again for another interview on my channel, and once again I was floored by how much I was learning. So over the years, James has been a great resource for me (and many others) to keep pulse on what Tesla is doing with FSD and AI (and even robotics). He doesn't have his own YouTube channel. He doesn't have any paid services or subscriptions. He probably has mixed feelings about so many people knowing about him. But I appreciate his willingness over the years to be available and help the Tesla community by offering his insights and knowledge. Here's an hour+ discussion on Optimus humanoid robots with James Douma. Social

I had the chance to spend the day taking Tesla Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas with James Douma. We discuss our experiences riding Tesla's driverless cars and the Robotaxi service, possible expansion, Waymo and competition, and more. Social

I spend two days with Emmet Peppers in Austin, Texas as we take multiple rides in Tesla's new Robotaxi service. Social

Day 3. Finished 5 Tesla Robotaxi rides, 4 Waymo rides, and 1 Uber ride. (See 39-minute edited video below.) Uber is in a tough situation. Classic innovators dilemma. Autonomous ride-hailing clearly is the future, but if Uber invites Waymo then that's working against their human drivers which will hurt Uber's recruiting ability (which they need to keep density especially in suburban areas). But if they don't welcome Waymo, then Uber is toast because people want cheaper/autonomous ride-hailing. Also, if Uber welcomes Waymo and Waymo cars increase then Waymo can just bypass Uber with their own Waymo app. Uber's only "hope" would be if multiple autonomous driving companies come online soon and Uber becomes the ride-hailing marketplace for them. But I think this is unlikely. Autonomous driving is just a really hard problem to solve, and with data and network effects. I think it's a winner-takes-most market. We'll see. But the more I take Tesla's Robotaxi, the more I think it's smoother and better than Waymo. And the more I take Waymo, the more I get pessimistic about Uber's long-term future. Social

Here's my video from Day 2 of trying out the Tesla Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas. I took a total of 5 Tesla Robotaxi rides today and also 1 Waymo ride. Social

I took 5 rides in Tesla's new Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas today. Was very impressed! Social

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Tesla is doing something fascinating. They're using their auto business as a launching pad into two massive adjacent markets: AI transport and AI labor. Social

Tesla's Q2 deliveries exceeded production by 33,000 vehicles, showing a significant increase from the previous quarter. This strong performance is likely to improve Tesla's financial margins, countering the recent downward trend and challenging the narrative that Tesla is becoming a low-margin automaker. Tesla press release for Q2 2024 delivery numbers: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2024 Social

I chat with Emmet Peppers on the latest trends with AI, investing, Tesla, FSD, Robotaxi, Cybertruck and more. Emmet Peppers on X: https://x.com/EmmetPeppers Emmet Peppers on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@goodsoilinvest Emmet Peppers on web: https://goodsoilinvestment.com Social

Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot could potentially revolutionize the world with its ability to learn and perform countless physical tasks through over-the-air software updates. As AI capabilities continue to skyrocket, the usefulness of the robot will exponentially increase, driving demand for the product and allowing it to take advantage of the rapid improvements in artificial intelligence. Social

Tesla shareholders overwhelmingly re-approved Elon Musk's 2018 compensation plan and the company's incorporation in Texas at the annual shareholder meeting last week. The vote shows strong support for Musk's leadership and the company's long-term focus on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Optimus humanoid robot, despite short-term challenges, and opens the door for a new compensation plan that could increase Musk's voting power to push forward with his aggressive AI and robotics plans. Social

Will CyberCab be made of stainless steel? What do you think? I talk with @farzyness (Farzad Mesbahi) about: • Tesla shareholder meeting • Elon 2018 compensation plan re-approval • Texas redomestication of Tesla • FSD • 8/8 • Optimus humanoid robot Farzad Mesbahi on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@farzyness Farzad Mesbahi on X (Twitter): https://x.com/farzyness Social

AI has the potential to radically increase the value of certain companies by embedding human-level intelligence into products and services. Two key opportunities to profit from this: creating or reinventing products and services with AI, and investing in companies that are leaders in bringing AI-powered value to their offerings. However, investing in AI companies also carries risks, as the competition to bring AI into products and services will be immense. Social

Some investors argue that Tesla's potential robotaxi service should not be included in valuation models because other companies will quickly catch up once Tesla solves unsupervised FSD. However, the ride-hailing market has strong winner-takes-most dynamics, and Tesla's significant lead in generalized autonomous driving technology would give them a major advantage in establishing a dominant robotaxi network that would be extremely difficult for competitors to challenge. Social

Once Tesla releases their unsupervised Robotaxi platform will adoption be slow or fast? Social

In this video I want to focus on two specific things. First, the unique position of Tesla to make the best humanoid robot. And number two, why being first matters with humanoid robots. Social

I talk with Alexandra Merz about Tesla's upcoming annual shareholder meeting and the two main issues being voted on: 1) Re-approving the 2018 Elon Musk Compensation Plan, and 2). Redomestication of Tesla to the state of Texas. Alexandra Merz on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/TeslaBoomerMama Social

I'm joined by James Douma as we discuss Tesla's latest FSD v12 (supervised) release and how ti compares to previous FSD versions. We also dive into Robotaxi, Optimus, LLMs, and more. James Douma on Twitter, https://twitter.com/jamesdouma James Douma on AI playlist, https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9R7KIedEU3y-YjrA63LSKHX Social

I take to the streets of central/downtown Austin and show some amazing moments where Tesla's FSD Beta v12.3 demonstrating high driving intelligence but also show some moments of hesitation and mistake. Social

This morning, I received Tesla's FSD v12.3 software update in my car, and here's my first impressions. 1. Overall, I'm super impressed. Ride quality is much more human-like than v11 with acceleration, braking and turning all much improved. 2. Smart decisions - overall, v12.3 made better and smarter decisions in challenging situations than v11. Several places where I know v11 would have difficulty, v12.3 handled with ease. 3. v12.3 handled speed bumps perfectly. 4. Many of my rides today were flawless and exactly how a human would drive. v11 has a rigidity that is gone with v12.3. Overall, I'm quite blown away by v12.3. I was expecting a version that was comparable to v11 - better in some ways and worse in other ways. But what I've experienced (so far) is a system that feels much more confident and capable than v11. v12.3 is far from perfect and there's still a lot of work ahead for Tesla's FSD team but the end-to-end neural net approach looks like it's clearly the right approach. Social

I discuss thoughts from Tesla's Q4 2023 earnings report, shareholder letter, and Elon Musk's comments to investors. Tesla Q4 2023 shareholder letter: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q4-2023-Update.pdf Social

I discuss why Tesla had to do a complete rewrite of FSD and more importantly, why it should allow them to improve faster and potentially solve autonomous driving. Narrow Driving Intelligence (NDI) is an approach to autonomous driving where each unique driving challenge, or edge case, is solved individually with a specific solution or algorithm. However, this approach does not improve the vehicle's ability to handle new, unseen edge cases. On the other hand, General Driving Intelligence (GDI) aims to develop a holistic driving intelligence that can handle a variety of situations and new edge cases, much like a human driver would. It involves creating a massive neural network that learns from millions of videos of various driving situations, enabling it to intelligently navigate through situations and edge cases it's never seen before. Social

I discuss Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) Version 12, a significant rewrite of their driving software, transitioning from rule-based coding to a neural network approach. This new version is a big leap, moving from using specific rules to an end-to-end neural net. I highlight the accomplishments but also note the challenges ahead for the Tesla FSD team. Social

I discuss the rapid advancement and potential utility of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, highlighting its significant progress in hardware and future improvements in AI. I also talk about the robot's ability to learn and adapt to perform various valuable tasks. Dr Know-it-All video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHGqvR4W3MU Social

I discuss a high-risk, high-reward investment strategy focused on recognizing the potential of groundbreaking products before they impact a company's financial statements. Social

I share my thoughts on the following exchange on X: DavidSHolz: we should be expecting a billion humanoid robots on earth in the 2040s and a hundred billion (mostly alien) robots throughout the solar system in the 2060s Elon Musk: Probably something like that, provided the foundations of civilization are stable Social

I share my thoughts on a video of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot folding clothes and laundry. Social

I share my thoughts on the Cybertruck delivery event, first reviews and more. Social

I discuss my thoughts on a posslbe Tesla-xAI partnership, what it might look like, and what the implications are. Social

I discuss the latest in the OpenAI saga… this morning Sam Altman and Greg Brockman agree to join Microsoft. OpenAI appionts a new CEO, Emmett Shear (former Twitch CEO). And OpenAI employees demand board to resign. Shockingly Ilya Sutskever signs the letter as well. Social

I discuss the current OpenAI drama, firing of Sam Altman, SpaceX launch, xAI, future of AGI, Tesla and more. Social

SpaceX Starship Launch Flight 2 in person. Social

I discuss the future of Starlink IPO, the upcoming Starship Launch, and implications of Tesla's next growth wave. Social

I discuss the future of OpenAI, their new GPT-5 plans, Tesla's FSD v12 and more in this livestream. Social

My critique of the Humane AI Pin, what it shows about the need for local inference compute, and how Tesla Optimus humanoid robot is the generalized application for real world AI. Social

The most local inference + real world AI foundation model + data pipeline + humanoid robots designed for manufacturing at scale. Social

I give my take on Tesla's latest quarterly earnings - the positives and negatives, including Tesla AI, Tesla FSD, Optimus humanoid robot, next-generation vehicle, margins, 2024 guidance and more. Read Tesla's Q3 2023 shareholder letter: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q3-2023-Update-3.pdf Social

My take on Tesla's Q3 delivery number announcement, impact on TSLA stock price, economic outlook, and more. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 Social

My take on Tesla's Q3 delivery number announcement, impact on TSLA stock price, economic outlook, and more. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 Social