In The Tranches of Structured Finance

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into dv01's latest insights on the housing market, with a focus on affordability metrics and what they signal for both borrowers and investors. Vadim breaks down:How dv01's unique affordability metric—covering over 2,900 U.S. counties—captures real-time changes in mortgage costs, taxes, and insurance.Why Florida's affordability improved despite an ongoing insurance crisis, and what that reveals about regional volatility.The powerful link between affordability ratios and prepayment behavior, including how unaffordable regions see faster prepayments even after controlling for rate incentives.A surprising trend in mortgage growth: first-time homebuyers are driving a rise in mortgage counts despite high rates, tightening inventory, and affordability headwinds.Why tracking the number of mortgages outstanding may be the most underappreciated signal in today's housing market.Whether you're an investor looking to understand prepayment risk or just trying to get a handle on what's really happening in U.S. housing, this episode offers an essential, data-rich perspective.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim Verkhoglyad breaks down recent credit performance and origination trends across consumer unsecured, subprime auto, and non-QM mortgages.Tune in for insights on:Strong recovery in consumer unsecured performancePlateauing trends in subprime auto, with rising loss severityWorsening impairments in non-QM despite limited lossesMinimal credit impact from recent wildfires and hurricanesGet the latest data-driven view on what's really happening with borrowers in 2025.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In the latest podcast episode, Vadim covers notable improvements in consumer unsecured loan performance, recovery patterns in subprime auto, and challenges in the Non-QM mortgage market. He discusses the influence of seasonal trends, regional performance disparities, and how tightening credit standards impact both new and seasoned loans. Tune in to understand the current credit landscape, learn which sectors are thriving, and find out how today's trends could affect future loan performance.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In today's episode, Vadim provides a comprehensive discussion on housing affordability, the impact of rising insurance premiums, and a surprising increase in mortgage counts, despite economic headwinds. Vadim highlights essential insights on LTV and DTI ratios in recent originations, alongside the evolving role of insurance costs on market stability, especially in regions like Florida. As prepayment rates reach near-record lows and delinquency rates hold steady, Vadim unpacks why this might signal a resilient housing market despite recession fears. Tune in to explore the macro trends shaping housing and mortgage behavior today and what they mean for the future.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In this episode, Vadim dives into the financial condition of U.S. households, exploring the nuances behind household balance sheets, consumer debt, and the surprising resilience of Gen Z and millennials. He unpacks the contrast between media narratives and the actual financial positions of American households, highlighting the significant growth in net worth, especially among lower-income groups. The discussion covers a wide array of topics, including housing costs in the U.S. compared to other developed nations, shifting financial priorities, and evolving spending patterns over the past four decades. Tune in for an insightful look at the current economic landscape and what it means for the future of household wealth in America.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

Vadim examines TransUnion data to discuss YoY trends in credit cards and auto loans. While subprime borrowers continue to drive overall DQ rates and credit card growth, regional analysis reveals significant weaker performance in certain states. In this episode, Vadim dives into a valuable metric, Average Excess Payment ("AEP"), which is an indicator of a consumer's ability to manage debt payment as it represents consumers who do not pay their credit card bills in full yet pay beyond the minimum required payment.Follow along with dv01's recent report here.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

Vadim dives into housing affordability, focusing on the impact of rising insurance payments—particularly in Florida, the impact of FEMA's updated risk scores on insurance premiums trends,  mortgage volume and the implications of low existing home sales and inventory levels, and overall mortgage performance behavior.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Matt Edgar, Founder & CEO of Edgar Matthews & Co, a  full-service, independent investment and merchant bank focused on the middle market.The pair discuss market observations in asset-backed lending, focusing on the complementary roles of private and public asset-based lending markets, and the increasing interest from insurance investors in asset-based finance. Key points include the robust activity in consumer installment lending and BNPL platforms, the emergence of home equity investments in securitization, and the innovation in financing solutions that combine public and private market elements. The discussion also highlights the growing M&A activity among asset managers and the strategic shift of finance companies towards fund structures to enhance valuations.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In the latest podcast episode, we explore a novel method of analyzing government debt, highlighting how, despite rising federal debt, the aggregate U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP fell from 2006 to 2019 and only increased in 2020 due to substantial pandemic-related fiscal measures. This holistic perspective also reveals that while U.S. asset values have significantly outpaced debt growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains only slightly above its 2006 levels, at 236%. We also discuss trends in Consumer Unsecured, Subprime Auto, and Non-QM. Notably, the ongoing challenges with increased impairments and low cure rates in Non-QM, despite rising prepayment rates in 2023, as well as the seasonality trends within Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Adelina Grozdanova, Co-Founder of Upgrade, to discuss all things consumer credit and the American consumer. Discussion includes, factors behind the dramatic volume declines of unsecured personal loans, how the record-high US credit card rates create opportunity to refinance using installment loans, and how Upgrade is positioning itself as a leading fintech by offering multiple products, including auto.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through September 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages.Cited Research dv01: Non-QM Performance Report, October 2023dv01: Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto Performance Report, October 2023Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

The RMBS market, specifically Non-QM, is showing signs of recovery and growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid rising rates, Non-QM is facing unique challenges and opportunities not present in the broader mortgage market. The upswing in mortgage rates has led the origination channel to shift its focus towards Non-QM, providing a favorable tailwind for future sector growth and market penetration. On the flip side, delinquencies are beginning to rise in Non-QM unlike the broad mortgage market. Non-QM securitizations have faced spread pressures similar to other structured credit products (which have eased in recent months), creating challenges for securitizations but also opportunities for new entreats. In this episode, Vadim is joined by Justin Mahoney of Shelter Growth Capital Partners to discuss in-depth trends.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through June 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages, including:The Consumer Unsecured sector continue to tighten its credit box, with more lending going to borrowers with higher creditworthiness.Performance of Subprime Auto loans continues to worsen.Delinquencies for Non-QM Mortgages are at near-record lows.Cited Research dv01: Non-QM Performance Report, June 2023dv01: Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto Performance Report, June 2023dv01: Consumer Unsecured Origination Report, May 2023Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

Understanding the factors driving regional affordability—supply and demand imbalances, zoning restrictions, building regulations, economic opportunities, culture, and climate—is crucial for portfolio and risk valuation. In this episode, dv01 argues that affordability challenges are far more regionally concentrated than they've ever been.Cited Researchdv01: Housing Affordability and Portfolio RiskBlackKnight: Mortgage MonitorRedFin: Housing Market DataSubscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

Did you know that in Q1-2023, stocks for all the large credit card companies went up, despite missing EPS on higher provisions? In today's episode, Vadim welcomes special guest John Hecht, a managing director at Jefferies, to discuss Q1-2023 trends, if the banking crisis has dented consumer credit growth, analysis that the market is misunderstanding, and more.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

Did you know nearly 50% of outstanding student debt is a result of graduate school? In this episode, dv01 examines the debt and wage trends across age cohorts—namely Gen Z and Millennials—highlighting wage growth, homeownership, and student debt levels. Cited research is found below.Cited Research:dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest GenerationsNY Fed: Center for Microeconomic DataFederal Reserve: Distributional Financial AccountsInstitute of Education Sciences: National Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Census Bureau: Income Data TablesU.S. Department of Education: Federal Student Loan PortfolioSubscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

In this episode, dv01 evaluates consumer credit performance across Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Trends are predominately over the past 12 months, but also highlight historical performance and some origination trends. Cited research is found below.Cited Research:dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest Generationsdv01: Performance of Consumer Unsecured & Subprime Auto LoansNew York Fed: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and CreditSubscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.

The U.S. Personal Saving Rate is a highly cited source for understanding consumers' balance sheet—but is it really indicative of consumers' overall financial health? In this episode, dv01 dives into The Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts ("DFA") to understand what consumer balance sheets look like today, whether consumers' finances have deteriorated over time (by income percentiles), and why the DFA is a better dataset to gauge consumer financial health.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.