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The sell off in Indian equities has been joined by global equities. The US market is late in the business cycle where it often slips into a recession. The yield curve is steepening causing equities to decline. Bond yields are rising along with the dollar. Not the ideal mix of Macros for a bull market. The bear is thumping the table.

Nifty has broken out ahead of RBIs monetary policy setting meeting on Friday. The mood is of enthusiasm around potential rate cuts as the economy and earnings slow down in India. Will one rate cut really solve the problem though needs to be seen

State elections in India are generating hopes of rally. But earnings have disappointed big time. Can the RBI save the day with rate cuts? Will Donald Trump's trade wars overwhelm all markets? Lots of questions.

Nifty continues to fall the most in global markets. This week the US market which was rising after Donald Trump's election also gave up all the gains. Now rising bond yields and a rising dollar haunt the market. The coming week will set the tone for how markets unfold over the coming twelve months.

The first significant correction in Nifty since March 2023. The stock market is getting oversold in the short term. US elections are adding to the uncertainty. How should we position ourselves?

Nifty made a new all time high this week. The Indian stock market is struggling with the idea that it is overbought or Overvalued. On the other hand, liquidity remains strong and demand has exceeded new supply. Understand this delicate balance. The interest rate cycle is show a trend reversal.

A lot of fear exists around investing in banking stocks. The fear may have been created by the narrative around savings going into bank deposits. The solution offered was higher taxes. On the other hand interest rates are about to start going lower. How does all this add up for the stock market?

The Growing liquidity at a global level and with equity mutual funds in India will continue to fuel a rally in the Indian stock market. The Reflation trade 2.0 refers to wave 3 of the commodity Cycle kicking off where Gold is leading the way Copper has bottomed out and a slow and steady rise in oil will follow falling inflation. This inversion is important to understand.

From the yen carry trade to the risk of recession the markets are back to discounting lower interest rates and a soft landing. Indian stock market has remained subdued due to the resurgence of the Adani scandal. These negatives should be discounted and we should join global stocks higher soon because sentiment is too bearish

The crash in stock markets around the world is probably over. The yen carry trade unwind has capitulated and many markets are oversold. An outright recession is unlikely in the US. Interest rates are on a path lower worldwide that will stimulate growth and drive markets higher again. The dollar index is bearish and a weak dollar is bullish for Emerging market stocks and Bonds.

What factors are giving me confidence that this bull market is not over?

Sometimes people ask me, Rohit, are you sure as if to check if I am very bullish or just bullish or very bearish or just a little. The problem in my model is that I give equal weight to every trade. Equal position size for each stock and so on. So, in my communication, I am extremely bearish when bearish and extremely bullish when bullish. Stupid, right? Yes, for other people, it's nonsense, and sometimes people may consider me mad and dangerous. However, my model gives me the confidence to take action in that direction because that is how I create conviction. If you are not convinced about being bullish or bearish, how are you going to take the required actions? A lot of people struggle with action. Staying long despite losing money is common. But making it actionable requires conviction that something has changed. A strong opinion helps in decision-making, which is how it works for me. Writing about it every day is a commitment that I have made with Indiacharts Insiders that helps in the process of doing the work needed to change. You may not like it, and from the outside, it looks like I am a madman, but from the inside, it results in a decision-making process. Welcome to behavioural finance.

The VIX has seen the biggest decline ahead of a National Election in recent history. Markets have rallied in anticipation of a major win by the existing power at the centre. With so much going on in global markets, from macro to geopolitics, what should we expect from the stock market?

The Mania in the Indian stock market is real and visible. Investors should be aware of what type of market they are participating in and adjust risk accordingly. I continue to wait to see the air come out of this bubble and I think it is already deflating.

The mad frenzy for the Indian stock market now spreads from retail investors to college students and international investors. The flow of funds creates the best of fundamentals and the highest valuations in a long time. This brings risks to long-term returns that are not being considered. The frenzy may be creating a bubble that requires a one-time valuation correction.

It is easier said than done to ignore every crisis, but we have to weigh the odds and manage risk along the way. This is a game of liquidity that the FED started and every time it appears like the end game is here something changes.

After a nice rally from an oversold condition, it is time to think if Nifty is hitting a top and if world markets are done with expecting a rate-cutting cycle without an economic slowdown. How will markets respond to the opposing forces of inflation and deflation.

The stock market is starting to pay attention to bond yields and currency markets. The risk of a slowdown in economic activity due to high-interest rates is real. It also impacts valuations. How to navigate these markets? Listen to Rohit Srivastava

Bear Market Or Correction For Nifty by Rohit Srivastava

Markets are taking off into the G20 meet being held in India. But there is more than meets the eye in this bull market. Are we really overvalued as a market? Is there a bubble in mid and small-cap stocks? Should we worry about Global Macro? All of that answered by Rohit Srivastava in this Live interaction on Twitter Spaces

Twitter spaces by Indiacharts are an interactive way to get your market insights and ask Rohit Srivastava your doubts about market trends. Follow us on twitter to stay tuned for this or download the Indiacharts app

Rising bond yields have triggered a global risk off. US bond yields are back at crisis highs seen almost a year back. Bu the truth about the economic situation maybe very different. We cannot afford to go down this hole. Understand how to stay focussed on the trend in equities in this environment

A new event roils markets every week, but the pullback appears like a routine correction on charts. The RBI and inflation data will set the course going forward.

Nifty broke out above 19040 and is now moving towards 19900 as the bullish momentum fails to fade. Rising bond yields along with a falling dollar tell us that this is not a risk-off signal yet.

19000 done - ding ding ding - the bells should be ringing in on what lies ahead, a continuation of the bull market to new highs

The Nifty bottomed out in March 2023 and started a new bull market phase. Let us understand how we stand after 2 months of a one way rally in stocks.

The extended move in Midcaps can entail a near term correction but the bull market is here to stay

Weekend With IndiaCharts is a full-length Video series discussing markets published each weekend on the Indiacharts website and App. This is the complementary audio version of Episode 103.

Differentiate between market reality and conspiracy theory and stay on the right side of market trends. Sentiment Money flow and positioning of market participants can give clues.

The FED and ECB decisions are behind us, and the last thing the markets are worrying about is the US banks. But equity markets in general are discounting all bad news and going ahead forward and you need to figure out why.

Traders are very focused from one week to the next and miss where the real money is in options trading. Investors need to brace for the near-term risks from earnings and US growth. Sentiment and Liquidity will help.

After three months of decline, the Nifty closed the month of March positive. Now a 10-day rally in the Nifty small-cap index is resulting in renewed optimism.

The most consensus view in the markets today is that the US heads into a recession later this year and drives down all markets. Is this a fair judgment of the situation, or can something change in this narrative? The risk to consensus opinions is that everyone is positioned for it.

Understand what the FED really wants. What has the recent actions to protect the US banking sector really done. Is QE back, what gold and BTC are telling us. This podcast is in Hindi.

The playbook behind previous market recessions like 2000 and 2008 is not at work. Recession? You need a new playbook and watch the moving parts as correlations change between the dollar bonds equities and commodities.

Find Out What Is Pushing The Markets [Hindi] To New Heights Stock Market Analysis by Rohit Srivastava

How several Macro narratives are changing and how to consider the counter forces of inflation and deflation in today's context

Nifty has been trying to discount everything from tightening of financial conditions to a budget that is spending more to the adverse impact of the Adani fiasco on market sentiment to the risk of a US recession. After all that, this is where we are shaking out the weak hands and attempting to rise to the occasion. This week's podcast discusses the positioning of the market and traders as we end FEB expiry and enter the final month of the Financial year.

The stock markets are recovering from the possibility of a severe recession. Is it sustainable and what to watch out for.

Markets became oversold at the end of December and are slowly seeing a rally develop. For India ahead of Union budget 2023 its sets the stage for a pre-budget rally

Central banks around the world are following divergent economic and monetary policies. Thus creating big moves in forex markets, This is resulting in local inflation and high liquidity conditions that support equity prices. Understanding what the central banks want in the end, inflation or deflation needs to be deciphered. Follow the bond and currency markets closely for signals.

Nifty rallied in October on the back of short covering, but now the bulls need to back this rally if it has to go further. The real strength depends on a change in the narrative.

Global markets have been driven by the changing FED narrative but Nifty has a mind of its own. We need to find out which way the FED will pivot and when because that will drive the immediate market behaviour

The breakout in the bond and rupee markets has finally played spoilsport with the bulls' narratives on Dalal street. A reality check is in progress

The Stock market is gyrating both ways to the tune of 1000s of points, and it is important to future out which way we head next at Nifty 17900

The Nifty has been bouncing back after FIIs shorted it the most since the pandemic. How to read FII/Client data, Gold vs. Bitcoin as a currency hedge.

Nifty has started a bounce and the big question is whether it has legs, we discuss the technical picture and then the contra fundamental arguments for and against the market out there

The RBI raised rates today in line with street expectations. The market is moving slowly but may start pricing in the impact of these actions in the weeks to come. We are in a bear market and bear market rallies involve low volume. Rotation between stocks and sectors can confuse on the rollover process but the big picture remains clear.

The market declines are relentless, but we are also seeing sharp pullbacks in some stocks. But bounces in a bear market do not last and end up trapping more bulls. The most important decision is to believe that we are in a bear market, then we know what to do.

Nifty has had a change of heart as the US bubble continues to pop, and now RBI back off from accommodative policy.

The March bottom has been followed by a relentless rally that could have been taken on only with the right mindset.