Podcasts about reflation

How will a Trump White House reshape spending priorities, and what could this mean for markets, inflation, and economic growth in a rapidly evolving global economy? Barry Knapp has spent spent nearly four decades sharing investment strategy analysis to institutional investors until he launched Ironsides Macro in 2019, offering a weekly subscription analysis on macroeconomic and public policy investment strategy He joins Jim and Bob on the Futures Edge to unpack critical economic themes, including the ripple effects of fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve's influence on credit markets, and the growth potential in key sectors such as energy and industrials. They delve into topics like inflation trends, the resurgence of metals in a reflationary environment, the transformative promise of self-driving cars, and the appeal of tax-free treasuries. Barry also shares strategies for navigating a shifting economic landscape, the evolving role of Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty, and the regulatory challenges facing cryptocurrency. This episode provides a sophisticated and actionable perspective on the complexities of today's markets and the decisions shaping tomorrow's economy. Takeaways -Government receipts are endogenous to growth, while spending is exogenous. -The current government spending is at 24% of GDP, which is unsustainable. -Austerity measures could lead to a temporary decline in equities. -Energy and industrial sectors are poised for growth. -Inflation is likely to persist due to supply chain issues. -The Fed's policies have significant impacts on small banks and credit availability. -Reflation could revive interest in previously overlooked metals. -Self-driving technology may change the automotive landscape significantly. -Tax-free treasuries could attract more domestic buyers. -Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against economic instability. -Government regulation of cryptocurrency is a complex issue. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Personal Insights 02:56 Government Spending and Economic Policy 06:08 Market Reactions and Fiscal Responsibility 08:58 Equity Markets and Future Predictions 11:55 Sector Analysis and Investment Opportunities 15:02 Inflation and Federal Reserve Policies 17:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 28:47 Understanding Inflation Metrics and Market Volatility 30:06 The Future of Metals in a Reflationary Economy 34:12 The Impact of Self-Driving Cars on the Automotive Industry 36:17 Exploring Tax-Free Treasuries and Market Dynamics 38:48 Investment Strategies in a Changing Economic Landscape 41:10 Bitcoin: A Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty 50:46 The Role of Government in Cryptocurrency Regulation

Christine Short, Vice President of Research, Wall Street Horizon shares her insights on how economic activity has moved over the past week as investment banking picks up, and indicators to look out for as we close in on the US Presidential Election and FOMC meeting. And given the volatility, is gold on her playbook? Presented by: Ryan HuangProduced & Edited by: Yeo Kai Ting (ykaiting@sph.com.sg)Photo credits: pixabay & its talented community of contributors See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oct 16, 2024 – In today's interview, Laurent Lequeu, founder of The Macro Butler newsletter on Substack, discusses his reflationary view on inflation and the global economy. He explains that while we have recently seen a disinflationary trend from...

The Growing liquidity at a global level and with equity mutual funds in India will continue to fuel a rally in the Indian stock market. The Reflation trade 2.0 refers to wave 3 of the commodity Cycle kicking off where Gold is leading the way Copper has bottomed out and a slow and steady rise in oil will follow falling inflation. This inversion is important to understand.

Contrasting macro-economic indicators plus geo-political concerns are tugging commodities generally higher… but new money is only following part of the trade. Find out why.     

When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024. And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1 So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2? To find out we'll ask the man himself. Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point. Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #reflation #inflation #bullmarket

Dai prezzi delle materie prime all'obbligazionario, tutti i segnali del trend del momento.

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 146.  In this episode, Darius discusses the current market regime and the transition to a reflation regime. He explains the drivers of the reflation regime and the implications for portfolio construction. Dale also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate policy in the current environment. He highlights the importance of liquidity and its impact on asset markets. Dale concludes by discussing the risks and benefits of the reflation regime and the potential for a market correction. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm's economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links:  42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/dariusdale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro 0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:20 Reflation regime and drivers 6:29 Understanding the Global Macro Risk Matrix 11:50 FOMC and interest rate policy 15:49 Liquidity cycle and implications 21:46 Benefits and drawbacks of the reflation regime 22:05 Risks and existing economic conditions 28:45 Risk of market correction 31:43 Parting thoughts, more on 42 Macro

China continues to face the triple challenge of debt, deflation and demographics. But are investors missing an opportunity in China equities? ----- Transcript -----Laura Wang:] Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist. Robin Xing: And I'm Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist. Laura Wang: On this special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss our 2024 outlook for China's economy and equity market and what investors should focus on next year. It's Tuesday, December 12th, 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. Laura Wang: Robin, China's post reopening recovery has been lackluster in 2023, disappointing expectations. We've seen significant challenges in housing and local government financing vehicles, which are pressuring the Chinese economy to the verge of a debt deflation loop. Can you explain some of these current dynamics? Robin Xing: China is in this difficult battle against the it's 3D problems, namely debt, deflation and demographics. China has stepped up reflationary measures since the July Politburo meeting, including immediate budgetary expansion, kick start of local government debt resolution and easing on the housing sector. Growth also bottomed out from its second quarter trough. That said, the reflationary journey remains gradual and bumpy. In particular, the downturn in the housing sector and its spillover to local government are still lingering. And it might take some time until it converges to a new steady state. Against this backdrop, we expect China to continue to roll out stronger and more coordinated fiscal, monetary and housing easing policies. Laura Wang: What measures does China need to undertake to avoid a debt deflation loop? Robin Xing: Well, there is no easy way out. We think China needs a systematic macro solution, including both cyclical stimulus and structural reforms, to decisively fend off a debt deflation loop. In particular, we proposed a 5R action plan. Reflation, Rebalance, Restructuring, Reform and Rekindle. So that includes reflecting the economy with policy stimulus to support aggregate demand. Rebalancing the economy towards consumption with structural initiatives such as fiscal transfer to the households. Restructuring balance sheets of troubled sectors, including property and financing league of Local Government. Reforming the SOE's of the public sector and rekindle the private sectors animal spirit. So far, Beijing has only completed 25% of the 5R strategy, led by some stimulus in reflation sector and also restructuring its local debt. We expect the progress to reach 50% by end 2024, and China could lead to this debt deflation loop in about two years after 2025. Laura Wang: Debt and deflation are 2 of the 3D's in what you call China's 3D journey. Demographics is the third challenge on this list. Why are demographics an economic headwind and how is China handling this challenge now? Robin Xing: Well, Laura, there is a little dispute on China's aging population. This will diminish capital returns and drag growth. So in our long term growth forecast, labor quantity will lower overall GDP growth by 40 basis points every year between 2025 to 2030. Though the declining labor quantity is unlikely to be reversed, Beijing would make more efforts in better utilizing higher labor quality, which has been increasing steadily. On that front, Beijing could step up reviving private sector confidence, which will bring more jobs and translate to labor with higher education into stronger output. Detailed measures could include, they start to issue the financial license to FinTech and resumption of offshore IPO by firms with sensitive data. That could send a clearer message to the end of regulatory reset since 2021. Laura Wang: With all these macro backdrops, what are your expectations for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, and what are some of the biggest economic challenges facing China over this forecast horizon? Robin Xing: Well, we expect a modest growth recovery next year. Real GDP growth could edge up mildly from 4% two year kegger in 2023 to a slightly better 4.2% in 24. And the GDP deflator, which is a broader defined inflation indicator, it could rebound from a -.8% in this year, to .6% in 2024. But this is still way below a 2 to 3%, the level of inflation. So China will continue to grow and reflate at a subpar rate next year. The biggest challenge here is stabilizing the aggregate demand amid continued housing and the local government deleveraging. That requires more debt initially, particularly by the central government, to cushion this downturn. We expect a 1.5% point widening in China's government deficit next year. Led by a rising official budget and some increase in local special purpose bond. Monetary policy will likely remain accommodative as well. We expect a 25 basis point cut and the cumulatively another 20 basis points interest rate cuts in 2024. Now, Laura, turning it over to you. Over the past the year, the debate on investing in China has shifted profoundly towards long term structural challenges, we just discussed. And you have argued that this would continue into 2024. So what is your outlook for Chinese equities within the global EM framework over the next year? Laura Wang: We see a largely range bound market at best in our base case for China equity market at the index level. For example, our price target for MSCI China by end of 2024 is 60, suggesting very limited upside from its current level. Such upside puts China very much on par with what we expect from the broader emerging market index, MSCI EM. Therefore, we retain our equal weight rating on China within our EM API allocation framework. There will still be quite strong headwinds on corporate earnings as we go through the earnings results season for the rest of the year and then into the first quarter of 2024. This could lead to continuous downward revisions of consensus estimates. For example, we Morgan Stanley expect 9% earnings growth for MSCI China in 2024 compared to consensus at 16%, which we think is overly positive. Such downward revisions could also cap the valuation rerating opportunities. Robin Xing: Given this backdrop, Laura, how should investors be positioned in 2024 in terms of Chinese equities? Laura Wang: The Asia market, if we use CSI 300 as a proxy, has been outperforming the offshore MSCI China index for five years in a row. We expect this trend to continue at least in the next 3 to 6 months, given that the top down easing policies are starting to pivot to further support economic growth. And Robin, you are still expecting some easing on the monetary side with PSI rate cuts and the triple R cuts. Those usually tend to have a bigger impact on the Asia market than on the offshore space. Plus, I think we're also expecting some further currency weakness in the first half of next year and A-shares tend to be more resilient in such a scenario. Robin Xing: Finally, Laura, what is the market missing right now when it comes to Chinese equities? Laura Wang: As investors are still debating over the beta opportunities being largely absent for the past couple of years. We think some investors may easily come to the conclusion that there are not good investment opportunities in China anymore. We disagree with that. There are still plenty of alpha generating opportunities and particularly high quality names in the growth categories who can offer a strong earnings and ROE track record, good management teams and limited reliance on foreign technology input or on domestic government policy support. We believe those names can offer strong downside protection and help minimize your portfolio's volatility, while also offer the upside from their respective growing sectors when the market turns around. We have put together selected names that we believe meeting these criteria, and we call them the China best business model. Laura Wang: Robin, thanks a lot for taking the time to talk. Robin Xing: Great speaking with you, Laura. Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Hilfe! Es läuft gerade viel zu gut! Die Zinsen steigen immer weiter und auch die Aktienmärkte ziehen immer weiter an. Nachdem die Fed und die EZB in der vergangenen Woche wie erwartet die Zinsen angehoben hatten, feierten die Märkte und Anleger kauften! Aber was ist da los? Anscheinend rechnen Investoren damit, dass das Schlimmste durch ist und die Zinsen bald nicht mehr steigen. Auch die Wirtschaft in den USA brummt weiter und wuchs im zweiten Quartal um 2,4 Prozent. Klingt alles wunderbar, aber es könnte sich noch rächen, dass es gerade so gut läuft. Denn sollte das Soft Landing tatsächlich klappen, dann ist natürlich ein Goldilock-Szenario möglich, aber auch ein Szenario mit Reflation – also einem Wiederaufflammen der Inflation. Zuletzt zeigte sich das bereits bei Trueflation und die Preise für Energie und Co. zogen wieder an. Ein echtes Risiko für Aktien, denn das könnte bedeuten, dass die Zinsen weiter steigen, wenn es zu gut läuft. Was der Märkte gerade eingepreist haben, warum eine sinkende Inflation noch eine viel höhere Bewertung rechtfertigen würde und warum Deutschland als einziges wichtiges Land vom IWF ein schlechtes Zeugnis ausgestellt bekommt ... zudem geht das Feuerwerk der KI-Aktien weiter. Vor allem die Ausrüster wie KLA legten diese Woche gute Zahlen vor, der Hype um künstliche Intelligenz geht also weiter

In this week’s episode of FRS, we have an insightful discussion with Darius Dale from 42 Macro. We dive into various financial scenarios, discussing the potential rise of crude oil prices to $90 and the possibility of the S&P 500 continuing its rally into the end of the year. We also consider the implications of […]

The Moneywise Guys Wednesday, June 29th BE MONEYWISE. Moneywise Wealth Management I "The Moneywise Guys" podcast call: 661-847-1000 text in anytime: 661-396-1000 email: info@moneywiseguys.com website: www.MoneywiseGuys.com

Following what has been a volatile first half of the year, our conversation focuses on four market scenarios that could play out over the course of the next six months and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On today's episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Walking Alfonso and Andreas through her macro framework, Lyn explains the past two years of unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. Drawing on the 1940s as an indicator, she correctly predicted the high inflation rates we're currently seeing far ahead of most. Expecting a pendulum-style shift between reflation and stagflation, Lyn shares her actionable investment idea while giving a clear outlook for today's macro landscape — you can't afford to miss this episode! -- Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Referenced In The Show: ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Worst Take of The Week (06:20) Market Outlook (15:35) Feature Interview With Lyn Alden (18:18) How Fiscal Handouts Caused Inflation (20:40) Weakening Demand Throughout 2022 (22:35) Weak Growth Over The Next Decade (26:45) Will Fed Tightening Spell Danger For Markets (29:40) Lyn's Actionable Trade Idea (41:05) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's Intelligent Money Minute, we'll interview Ed Peters on reflation, deflation, and stagflation. You'll read in the headlines about the different types of inflation including stagflation, deflation, and reflation. During this episode, Ed Peters breaks down each type and what scenario they occur. Correctly diagnosing the inflationary environment is critical to approaching an accurate […] The post Reflation, Deflation, & Stagflation? OH MY! appeared first on Intelligent Investing.

A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve flattening are all indicating that the balance of risks is tilting away from recovery and reflation.------EP. 195 TOPICS------00:00 INTRO: Interest rate swap spreads are a peek at bank balance sheet capacity.01:43 Bank balance sheet capacity represents ledger money; the reserve currency, eurodollar.03:04 If bank balance sheet capacity is not available, swap spreads will show it.08:53 Comparing the 5-, 10- and 30-year swap spreads.11:55 OUTRO: Swap spreads and Eurodollar Futures both turned away from Reflation at same time.----EP. 195 REFERENCES----The Money *All* Agrees: Taper Rejection Meets Policy-Error Error: https://bit.ly/3tg6wpZThe Real Money Doesn't *Spread* Inflation: https://bit.ly/3stKscvAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlinRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7-----SEE ALL EPISODES-----Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Hong Kong Story" by Lazer Boomerang.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comLazer Boomerang: https://www.facebook.com/lazerboomerang/Lazer Boomerang: https://soundcloud.com/user-14207639

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and guest host Kevin Muir welcome 42 Macro founder Darius Dale to the show where he says the reflation trade is making a come-back, but that it will eventually yield to deflation. Then Erik and Kevin discuss Kevin's article published by Bloomberg, titled The Bond Market Refuses to Accept Economic Reality. Link: https://bit.ly/3I3UmX3

During the gold rush, the real money was made not by miners but by the businesses who sold the miners their picks and shovels. Now semiconductors are poised to be the picks and shovels of the coming decade, said Derek Smashey, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager at Scout Investments. Smashey joins Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to examine what happened to the reflation trade over the last year and what to watch for in 2022 and beyond.

Join DEC Members as we talk about an important topic to all – Your Money. Our guest speaker, Sam Huszczo, will share what he is watching in the megatrend of Inflation vs Reflation, which sectors, market cap size and factors within the stock market favor this environment and the tax proposals that have the highest probability of passing before year-end.

Join DEC Members as we talk about an important topic to all – Your Money. Our guest speaker, Sam Huszczo, will share what he is watching in the megatrend of Inflation vs Reflation, which sectors, market cap size and factors within the stock market favor this environment and the tax proposals that have the highest probability of passing before year-end. FEATURED GUEST SPEAKER Sam G. Huszczo, CFP, CFA Founder SGH Wealth Management

A brief look at financial markets with Bokor in the Morning brought to you by the Ocean Wealth team at PI Financial Corp. a member of CIPF

In episode 366, we welcome our guest, Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, which specializes in macro risk management through the dual lenses of asset allocation and portfolio construction.   In today's episode, we're talking all things macro! Darius walks us through his framework for analyzing macro regimes and then uses it to assess where we stand today. We touch on all the hot macro topics – whether inflation is transitory, the impact of supply chain issues, and how the rise of populism in the U.S. will impact markets.   Be sure to stick around until the end of the episode to hear what Darius says is the most important chart in macro today.   Darius was kind enough to put together a comprehensive deck, so be sure to either check out the episode on YouTube to see him walk through the slides, or click here to follow along yourself.   -----   Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com   ----- Today's episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.   Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.

DB-Oct20,2021: Bitcoin hits its all-time high at nearly $67,000 in intraday trading following the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF yesterday. VanEck may soon follow step with the launch of their own Bitcoin ETF as early as next week. Darius Dale, CEO and founder of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to break down Bitcoin's exuberant price action and the changes in his models that are leading him to believe that “reflation has emerged as the dominant market regime”. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CeKuYd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Neste início de temporada de resultado do 3T nos EUA, só se fala em reflation trade. Como está o humor do mercado em relação às primeiras divulgações de resultado? Seria agora um bom momento para comprar petroleiras? Além disso, nosso trio de analistas falou sobre Vale (VALE3) e HCA Healthcare. Acompanhe aqui!

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on the risk of rising prices and its effect on economic growth, the permanency of inflation and how portfolio's should be positioned. She also discusses the latest employment report out of the US where labour supply shortages appear to be most concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector.

There is a building narrative that the world may be shifting from a reflation to a stagflation regime. While it is likely that global growth will slow as emergency stimuli are unwound and that inflation will stay elevated for longer due to supply constraints, we believe key indicators are not pointing to a stagflation outlook. As such, we would use any market dislocation to add exposure to risk assets.Speakers:- Manish Jaradi, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank- Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

Our conversation examines the reflation versus stagflation debate and what recent market activity is suggesting about which scenario is more likely to materialize. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tuesday 28th September 2021 It seems markets are still trading on the hawkishness of central banks, particularly the Fed, where we're seeing bond yields significantly higher and tech stocks weakening. Commodity prices are also pushing higher globally, with Brent Crude now close to $80 a barrel. NAB's Gavin Friend in London says these extra costs, plus supply constraints make it highly unlikely that the Bank of England will lift interest rates next year, no matter what Governor Andrew Bailey suggests.

RenMac discusses the Biden's challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve's foray into fatherhood.

DB-Aug16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to examine China's economic slowdown in July and what risks that might pose to global economic growth as well as the Fed's consideration of ending asset purchases by mid-2022. Dillian provides an update on his investment framework amidst concerning signals about the risks of an economic slowdown that would undermine the recovery in addition to the timeline of the Fed tapering and what the impact would be on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Reflation is upon us and if you're not careful, it could cost you big time over the long run! What is reflation you ask? You'll have to listen to this show to find out.

Ron Insana, Senior Adviser to Schroders and CNBC contributor, and Marina Severinovsky, Investment Director, US QEP Product Manager, discuss whether we are nearing the end of the reflation trade and the opportunities up and down the cap scale. NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available every Thursday and will be released at 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Chance Finucane is Chief Investment Officer at Oxbow Advisors. Chance joined Oxbow in 2017 after spending six years on the investment team at Institutional Capital (ICAP), a global value investment firm based in Chicago. Topics discussed in this conversation include the reflation trade, bank stocks, the yield curve, growth sectors, central bank digital currencies, and the credit mechanism.  

We are observing a clear turnaround in investor risk appetite, says Mo Haghbin, Chief Commercial Officer and COO of Invesco Investment Solutions. He discusses the markets trading lower to end the month, as well as Amazon (AMZN) is down over 7% Friday after a revenue miss. He also talks about investor trends, saying portfolios are positioned to grow versus cheap stocks and that tech is overweight and banks and energy are underweight. He then mentions that it's too early to abandon the reflation trade. Tune in to find out more.

Our conversation examines the severity of current risk factors to market performance and the economic recovery, along with how to think about asset allocation over the next several months. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets decided weeks ago that the inflation scare is temporary. Now they are doubling down with a bet that the ‘relation trade’ is over: that means big reversals in bonds, commodities and much else besides. Signal or noise?There is far too much muddled thinking on antigen testing. It’s a useful addition to the toolkit. Why NPHET is so opposed is a mysteryA UK by election reveals that southerners with degrees, jobs and a garden don’t like being trashed on a daily basis by Johnson’s culture war mercenaries. Subscribe at cjpeconomics.substack.com

Today we turn our focus back to the emerging markets as we explore the implications of a US inflation pick up to EM assets, as well as check in and some key political developments in both Central and South America. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Andrew Norelli, who serves as a portfolio manager for several global fixed income strategies, consider the impact of a reflationary environment.

"Right now, I think we are transitioning from peak earnings to peak multiples. The inflation scare ultimately fades as fiscal support moderates and workers return to the labor force," says Invesco's Talley Leger. He remains in the buying the dips camp, while sticking to the reflation trade.

Is Deflation coming? Pretty much every Macro Trader I know is looking for massive Inflation, but not my guest today. Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, Darius Dale joins me to talk about how we go from Reflation to Deflation in just a couple of months. This was a shocker hearing this so we got […]

We believe the so-called global reflation trade is taking a pause, as reflected in the pullback in US Treasury yields and a few other market indicators. However, fundamental data, including upbeat corporate earnings, point to a sustained recovery in the global economy. Hence, we would use the current dislocations to position for a continued cyclical recovery in risk assets.Speakers:Manish Jaradi, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered BankAbhilash Narayan, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

The copper/gold ratio is used as a barometer for risk-on versus risk-off. The ratio is now testing long-term resistance, which could signal a pull-back in the reflation trade.Equities are still preferred over bonds, especially given a series of relative breakouts in the SPY/TLT ratio. However, it appears that long-duration bonds are deeply oversold, which means Treasury yields could recede over the short-term. US growth stocks are oversold versus value stocks, but the broader uptrend is shifting downward. For now, upside appears limited for momentum stocks, particularly concentrated in the tech sector. Healthcare and biotech, although lagging in terms of relative strength, have held support on shorter time frames.The broad commodities complex has reached our initial upside target (similar to the late 1990s in the Dow Jones Commodities Index). Downside should be limited amid seasonal weakness, and we expect the global economic recovery to keep buyers active at lower support levels. Learn more about our managed account offerings at www.dantesoutlook.comAnd stay tuned for a special guest interview later this month.

Inflation fears are rising.  After 10 years of inflation being too low that might actually be good news.  But what are the implications for bonds, equities and portfolio construction more generally?Niall O'Sullivan (EMEA & Asia CIO) and Nick White (Global Strategic Research Director) join Rupert Watson to discuss their views on the topic on every investor's lips.This content is for institutional investors and information purposes only. It does not contain investment, financial, legal, tax or any other advice and should not be relied upon for this purpose. The materials are not tailored to your particular personal and/or financial position. If you require advice based on your specific circumstances, you should contact a professional adviser.Read our full important notices - click here

What is reflation? Our in-house CFA Aaron Kennedy joins us this week on our show to share a market update. You don't want to miss this!

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the success of the reflation trade and how higher equity prices are diverting capital from the real economy, higher commodities are a threat to margins and higher real yields could be a headwind for risk assets. The higher equities go, the worse it is for economic growth. Perhaps the Fed put on stocks is lower down than most people expect? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anna Svahn och Martin Sandqvist har laddat k-pisten och avlossar punkt efter punkt i ett rappt och koncist avsnitt. Varför har guld gått trögt? Kommer softs fortsätta sin fantastiska resa uppåt? Och hur mixar man egentligen ihop en inflationsskyddad portfölj? Detta och mycket mer i avsnitt 24 av Antiloop Podcast. Glöm inte att prenumerera i din podcast-app och lämna gärna en recension så hjälper du oss nå ut till fler lyssnare. Mer information om Antiloop hittar du på antiloophedge.com och på antiloophedge.com/memos får du även tillgång till Antiloops alla memos. Ingenting du hör i Antiloop Podcast är någon form av rekommendation och alla investeringar är förknippade med risken att förlora hela eller delar av ditt kapital. Antiloop Podcast produceras i samarbete med Vexaton Media. 00:00 - Intro 01:12 - Konsumentprisindex och den dolda inflationen 02:40 - Vad säger 10-åriga räntan som marknadens förtroende för Powell? 04:36 - Value vs Growth 06:09 - Reflation eller inflation? 07:20 - Vart ska oljepriset? 08:07 - Kommer softs fortsätta uppåt? 11:31 - Vilka metaller blir de största vinnarna i ett urartat fiat-system? 12:30 - Därför har guld gått trögt 13:33 - Tryckta pengar skapar inte tillväxt 14:33 - Är vi förbi början på slutet för dollarn? 17:00 - Guld och bitcoin 19:40 - Hur mixar man ihop en inflationsskyddad portfölj? 20:46 - USA:s budgetunderskott

Ron Insana, Senior Adviser to Schroders and CNBC contributor, and James Gautrey, Portfolio Manager, Global & International Equities, discuss the attraction of the tech firms and what stock markets might look like if inflation starts to rise. NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available twice weekly. On Mondays, you can listen to a short 10 minute preview of the week ahead. Thursdays will be our usual deep dive into the themes driving markets and the economy. Both podcasts will be released around 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Topics discussed:History of The Daily Shot newsletterLev's process for finding relevant info and scanning markets.Equity valuations and remaining opportunities.The reflation trade.Pros and cons of rising inflation from both a market and economic perspective. (level vs. speed)The Fed's strategy to get ahead of an inflation surprise.Implications for the credit market given high corporate bond issuance.Inflation outlook for Europe and Japan.Economic improvements in LatAm and other emerging markets.Benefits from export growth.Agriculture markets and other commodities starting the next up-cycle.The endgame for QE/MMT/gov debt binge."Forced to continue fiscal expansion in light of massive debt and low yields, but becoming too reliant on this could hammer the economic recovery."Speculative environment in cryptocurrencies.Subscribe to Lev's newsletter at www.thedailyshot.com