Podcasts about disinflation

Register here to attend the live virtual event "How to Scale Your Portfolio, with Tenanted Cash Flowing, New Construction Properties" on Thursday, November 13th at 8pm Eastern. Keith discusses Billie Eilish's views on billionaires and contrasts her stance with Grant Cardone's, emphasizing the value billionaires bring.  Hear about the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), predicting lower interest rates.  GRE Investment Coach, Naresh Vissa, joins the conversation to highlight the benefits of new build properties, such as lower maintenance and higher tenant quality, and mentions a 10% cashback incentive from builders.  Resources: Register for the event at GREwebinars.com Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/579 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, should billionaires even exist? Why do so many people think that interest rates of all types are headed even lower than as a real estate investor, how to identify and capitalize on an opportunity in this era? It's something that I've never seen before. Today on get rich education   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from flatiron, Manhattan to Flatbush, Brooklyn, across New York City and 188 world nations. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the longest federal government shutdown in US history. This whole thing has now lasted longer than most gym memberships. I guess the GDP stands for government doesn't produce, hmm. Before we get into our core investing and real estate content today, Billie Eilish, the singer, recently made some public remarks on whether or not billionaires should even exist. Yeah. Now if you're not familiar with her, Billie Eilish is known for her kind of unique style, sort of these baggy clothes, neon hair, avant garde fashion, and she has a reputation for being outspoken about a lot of things like mental health and body image and environmental issues. Now, in general, I respect people for speaking their mind, whether I agree or not, because a lot of people are just afraid to do that. Let's listen in to this short clip on what she said. You might have heard this because it was pretty widely broadcasted. Eilish spoke after receiving recognition at the Wall Street Journal innovator awards. This is courtesy of the AP. And then I'll come back to comment.   Speaker 2  2:58   We're in a time right now where the world is really, bad and really dark, and people need empathy and help more than kind of ever, especially in our country. And I'd say if you have money, it would be great to use it for good things and maybe give it to some people that need it and love you all, but there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? No hate, but yeah, give your money away. Shorties. Love you guys. Thank you so much.   Speaker 3  3:40   First of all, without explicitly saying it, she's basically referencing how inflation widened the canyon between the haves and the have nots and GRE listeners that have acted have been on the right side of that canyon. I actually want to give Billie Eilish some credit here. Giving is virtuous. That is a good thing. In fact, next month, I plan to discuss the pros and cons of giving here on the show as we approach Christmas. Billie Eilish, she's certainly not a hypocrite either, because she's given away more than $10 million of her estimated $50 million dollar net worth. She's into feeding people and climate initiatives that right there is giving away more than 20% of your net worth, and that is really kind. Now, you heard her say there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and she's right. Mark Zuckerberg was in that room. His net worth of over 200 billion means that his net worth is more than 4000 times greater than Billy eilish's. It sounds loosely like she's. shaming him for not giving away more of his wealth. And I don't know just offhand how much Zuck gives away, but this is where my credit to Billy Eilish stops. I think that it's okay for a person to be a billionaire. I wouldn't question that. I mean, a lot of times it meant that that person was willing to take risks that others would not dare try. A billionaire probably means you're a person of great value, and that you've hired hundreds or 1000s of other people, creating jobs for them. A billionaire has almost certainly created a product that society values. Jeff Bezos pioneered one day delivery. Zuckerberg connects people through his meta platforms. And now I'm not going to say that either one of those billionaires are perfect people. They are flawed, just like you and I. Billionaires probably pay more tax than the average person as well. That supports the infrastructure that you and I and everybody use, like building bridges or creating a fiber optic network. I would expect that a billionaire would be a giver as well. And see, if you're a billionaire, you have more ability to give than the average person does, you can make a greater impact. And see, this is where things really break down and not make sense. So if Billie Eilish is net worth is 50 million, Oh, apparently that's just okay. That's fine with her. But once it gets to 20 times greater than that, which is 1 billion, then it's not okay. So that means the line is drawn somewhere in there. That makes zero sense to me. The ceiling on what you're supposed to have in net worth is between 50 million and 1 billion. Like, I really do not get the logic on that one. And you know, a guest that we've had on the show here, Grant Cardone, whether you like him or not, he has had some on point remarks about these Billy Eilish comments himself to the question that she posited, which is, if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? Cardone's answer is, if you're a pop star, why are you a pop star? Billy said, give your money away. Cardone's response to her is, give your music away. That's some food for thought there. That's my take on the Billy Eilish remarks on whether or not billionaires should exist. And if you want to hear Grant Cardone and I's conversation here on GRE, that was episode 264 the title of it is Keith Weinhold and Grant Cardone 10x your wealth number 264, a lot of listeners like that episode saying something like it was a dream to hear grant and I together for the first time. Like that, their favorite sales trainer on their favorite real estate show. You can listen by either scrolling way back to get rich education episode 264 in your podcatcher, or you can listen directly by going to get rich education.com/ 264,    Keith Weinhold  8:11   now the Fed has said that they are going to slow or end Qt, next month. All right, when Jerome Powell says something like this, what does that really mean to you as an investor? What can you expect ending QT? Well, you probably already know that QE quantitative easing that has the effect of creating dollars. Qt is the opposite. It has the effect of destroying dollars. So if they're ending Qt, this helps keep more dollars around in the future. So ending Qt then, like we expect soon, that really parallels a lower interest rate environment, because see lower rates already make dollars flow more freely. You probably remember the analogy that I introduced to you on the show earlier this year about how lower rates are like lowering the height of a dam wall. It makes it easier for water to flow, so then lowering rates makes it easier for money to flow, and that's because low savings account rates make people get money out of those vehicles. Okay, that's that low dam wall and low borrowing rates make that money flow as well. People will unlock dollars if rates are low, late last year, the Fed dropped rates a full 1% then they didn't make any moves for a while, until late this year, they've now dropped rates another half a percent. That's the environment that we're in. So then more QE and less QT. That further eases the flow of dollars, and it correlates with even lower rates that are coming in the future. Now it doesn't mean that they will. I'm not saying that they certainly will. There is just that tendency, that correlation. So we had pandemic era QE there about five years ago, that ended as we moved to Qt in 2022 and now what we're doing is unwinding Qt, moving back toward more flow, and it surely gets more technical than that. Ending Qt allows the Fed to expand its balance sheet again. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, once matured, can now be replaced, and that injects liquidity into the system once again, and that is where we're going. Bank reserves are reaching ample levels again, and there is no need to put liquidity stress on money markets. A lot of these moves are here. What they're here for is to help ease the concerning labor market. It's been almost exactly three years now since chatgpt launched, and a while back, I mentioned how companies were newly interested in hiring the shiny new job that didn't exist before the AI prompt engineer that was one of the hottest jobs. Well, yeah, that was true back in 2023 but not so much. Now. A lot of companies have figured out that the employees that wanted to keep their job, well, they figured out real quick how to be the Ask AI, good questions guy, and we are seeing more layoffs later today, my guest and I will talk about that, and also he's going to make somewhat of a future mortgage rate forecast, or at least talk about the direction that they're going in. I think you're really going to like that. I don't predict rates myself, but sometimes a guest will. That's what's happening today. My point here is that with Qt ending, which again lowers the damn wall height and eases the flow of money, that parallels the fact that we have lower interest rates now than what we had one year ago, and we have lower interest rates now than what we had two years ago. As well, be mindful that you cannot get it all as a real estate investor. You cannot get soaring employment and low interest rates together. You cannot get those two things together, at least not for long. High employment means high rates. Low employment means low rates. Today's guest, and I will get into that as well.    Keith Weinhold  12:43   Well as we've had lower rates, hence a lower wall height, don't buy property and expect that you'll be able to refi into a lower rate within a year. If it happens, great. Don't buy expecting rents to go up or rates to go down, although many think that will happen. Just enjoy it. If it does, rent vesting has been on the rise lately. Yes, rent vesting. What that means is when you pay rent in the property where you live, and then the only properties that you own are rental properties. Rent vesting makes sense if you live in California, New York City and Boston, since rent to price ratios are so low there, and then you invest your dollars inland, that's how you can live in a high cost place and yet still benefit from cheap rental property and have income streams from them. You might remember that some months ago, I interviewed two listener guests on the show, everyday listeners, just like you, and California based investor and GRE listener, Joshua Fang, told us about his rent vesting. He pays rent in his primary residence, since the rent to price ratio might be three tenths of 1% there and then he owns property in GRE marketplace markets, I think it was Memphis and elsewhere where you're benefiting from, say, eight tenths of 1% that is called rent, vesting, investing in properties that make sense that you buy through GRE marketplace. And remember when Josh told us that passive income gives him time to enjoy life and even stop and watch two lizards for 15 minutes? Oh, what passive income can do. It's the quirky things that you remember. See. The point is that smart people in high cost states are rent vesting, if that's what you've got to do in order to own real assets. Then do it get on the right side, as this difference between the haves and the have nots just keeps expanding. I just did something that you might find interesting over the weekend for the first time in years. I visited that first fourplex building that I ever owned, which is also the first piece of real estate that I ever owned, that blue colored fourplex, and it is still blue. The address of that property is 925 east, 45th court, and it's in Midtown Anchorage. It has never been a pretty neighborhood, and I confirmed that it still is not. It looks a touch worse than when I owned it. I straightened up the curb appeal more than today's owner does. I bought the four Plex over 20 years ago for $295,000 and at that time, on the day that I bought. The total rents were $2,900 because it was 725 per door. I just looked on Zillow. And do you want to guess at its zestimated value today? Yes, it cost 295k back in 2002 and today, the Zestimate is 625k I don't know what today's rents are. My guess is that they're just short of $6,000 for all four units combined, two bed, one bath, 960 square foot units, really plain vanilla, boring looking housing, but it's certainly not like a crime ridden slum. It's just that depressing looking block that's just chock full of disorder and these other four Plex buildings and dumpsters all over the place. But yeah, that's how it all began for me. I visited that building again, and I haven't owned it in a while. I 1031 exchange out of it and into an eight Plex in 2013 if it weren't for that building, you would not be listening to me right now, and you would not have heard of me, because this show wouldn't exist big thanks to the three and a half percent down FHA loan for someone that came from humble means, like me.    Keith Weinhold  17:03   Last month, I did a running race that goes up a ski jump that was pretty cool. It gets so steep that you have to grab onto a cargo net to pull yourself up. It's almost like a rope ladder. I did not win. I got fifth out of 21 competitors in that race. Hey, I like to get out and physically challenge myself. After talking real estate all day, my body weight is up a little. It's currently sitting at 178 pounds. That's 81 kilograms for our European listeners, and it hit its recent bottom of 172 back on the Fourth of July. That's by design. I need to be really leaned out for a big Independence Day race every summer. You know, I'm one of those guys where I still cannot compete with bodybuilders because I'm too lean, and yet I don't win running races because I'm too bulky, so I'm more of an all around guy. I do about seven different sports, and that's exactly how I win nothing and always get like, fifth place or worse. This major mammal has got to keep himself moving, In any case.   Keith Weinhold  18:17   next week here on the show, we'll talk to a Harvard grad. She's super interesting. She used to work at Apple, and then she founded an AI centric property management company so that you can use her platform to self manage and leverage AI. But are we at the point where your tenant would really talk to a chatbot? Would that fly? And if society is there, well then do property management fees and everything start trending towards zero. I'm going to ask her about that. That's next week. As for today, you know, the world series ended about a week ago, and what I did is that I watched 10 commercials during the World Series, and then I jotted down the name of each sponsor, and here's who the World Series advertisers were just in this one segment where I paid attention to them. They're all big brands that you've heard of atnt Liberty, mutual nature made brand items like vitamins and supplements, Starbucks, Coors, light, Qdoba, Capital One, Home Depot, crest, white strips and Jim Beam, all right, those were the 10. What do those 10 have in common? More or less, any ideas there those 10 products and companies are all for consumer products. That's the common link. And that might seem so obvious that you wouldn't even think of it. Well, this is because most ads are for consumer products. Those ads fuel consumerism. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. That. Represents an economy. In fact, I use some of those very companies in my personal life.    Keith Weinhold  20:04   But here's the difference here at GRE our sponsors help you produce, not consume. Think about that as you listen to me in this spot for freedom, family investments and then Ridge lending group, then I'm coming back for more with a terrific guest.    Keith Weinhold  20:23   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  21:34   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   John Lee Dumas  22:08   this is Entrepreneur on fires, John Lee, Dumas, don't follow Money. Make money. Follow you with get rich. Education.   Keith Weinhold  22:22   So we have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion here with our own GRE investment coach. And like I've told you before, he's got both the formal education with his MBA and the self education, because he's an active real estate investor for four years now, he has helped you completely free, usually over the phone, sometimes on Zoom. He learns your own personal goals and then helps you find the market that's right for you in fitting those goals. And I've had listeners like you tell me that, you know, I can't believe that getting his actionable insight is free, and now he can help you best, though, if you're ready to own more income property, he even helps connect you with the exact property address, like say, 321, raspberry Street in Huntsville, Alabama. So it's great to welcome back to the show and provide the listener with a respite from my mouth breathing rhetoric and discourse, it is GRE investment coach. Naresh Vissa,   Naresh Vissa  23:24   thanks a lot, Keith. I can't believe it's been four years. It's been four amazing years, and congratulations to you and to GRE for being around so long and together, we have grown our listenership, and we appreciate all of you listeners, listening out there, for sure,   Keith Weinhold  23:42   real estate activity has slowed down overall, but things are still really vibrant. Here at GRE we see more activity than we saw last year, and when we talk about increasing activity, Naresh, the Fed, looks to do that when they reduce interest rates, that incentivizes businesses to borrow, that incentivizes consumers to spend, because, for example, they're not getting as high of a yield and their savings account. So now we're here in this fed cutting cycle. Tell us what that means from your perspective.   Naresh Vissa  24:15   We talked about this a few months ago when I was on the podcast at the Federal Reserve. I predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin a rate cutting cycle, and that this cycle would be extensive. It would not be an overnight, 100 basis point cut, or anything like that we saw in March. So that rate cutting cycle has begun, and they continue to cut. And we did an entire episode on President Trump and the name calling with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in the middle of next year. It's May of next year, when he's leaving. And with all that pressure, I predicted that the Fed would begin its rate cutting cycle. We are in the. Cutting cycle right now. They did a few cuts last year and stopped, which I thought were mistakes. But with that being said, we are in the thick of this cutting cycle. We are going to see more cuts moving forward. And what that means you're already seeing it. As a real estate investor, you are seeing, I don't want to say low interest rates, but lower interest rates compared to where we were a year ago, compared to where we were certainly 234, years Well, maybe not four years ago, but three years ago, we are seeing far lower interest rates, and we will continue to see interest rates, in the sense of mortgage rates, plummet as a result of this. So enjoy the low rates while they last, because they're not going to last forever. Nothing lasts forever, but the Federal Reserve, you throw in the government shutdown, I think it makes sense that the Federal Reserve continues to cut, because there's no telling where inflation is going to go. The experts thought that inflation would go up, up, up, up and be a significant problem. They've been saying that since the election winner last year or the election night last year, we haven't necessarily seen that. We have seen inflation somewhat go up, but we haven't seen that runaway inflation that many of the experts predicted as a result of the tariffs, as a result of the rate cutting, I think it definitely helps that number one, Doge, cut several government programs and cut a lot of government spending, not as much as they thought they would, but they cut enough to where they're limiting the amount of federal government spending. We've also seen mass layoffs, mass layoffs in the public sector, which has seeped into the private sector as well, because many of these private companies, like an Accenture, for example, many of these tech companies that were getting subsidies from the government, that funding has stopped, and that has led to layoffs. Now, what layoffs do is layoffs create, I don't want to say deflation, but layoffs are disinflationary, right? And we've seen significant layoffs, like I said, since February of earlier this year, when Doge was in the thick this government shutdown has led to mass layoffs as well. So we've seen 10s of 1000s of people well, we've seen hundreds of 1000s of people furloughed, if not at least a million people furloughed now, they will end up getting their pay, but we've seen 10s of 1000s of people laid off as a result of this government shutdown. And what that means is, again, this is very disinflationary. That's less money that the government is spending moving forward, not just right now, but moving forward. So there's a savings there that's also more people who are probably going to hold on to their cash as tightly as possible as they find new work. So this is, once again, disinflationary. And what does all this mean? All of this, to me, seems disinflationary. It goes against the narrative that when you cut interest rates, inflation goes up. It goes against a narrative that when you implement tariffs, inflation goes up, and that's why we haven't seen the runaway inflation that many so called experts were predicting. I think moving forward, the Fed continues to cut because of the weakness, at least when it comes to the job situation, because of the weakness with jobs, and because of unemployment, it's gone up somewhat. I think the Fed ends up continuing their rate cutting cycle through the end of Powell's term, and it could be just a series of 25 basis points every time they meet. Maybe if things get if there's something that they don't like, they up it to 50 basis points at one of the meetings. But the bottom line is, I think they're just going to keep cutting until Powell is gone, and then Trump will put in his guy into the Fed chair. And by that point, we may have cut enough to where there's not much left to cut yet, and that's when we're going to see there's a chance that could happen, or there's a chance the next guy will pick up where Powell left off and and do series of cuts as well. But what that means is that mortgage rates, we can expect, that's one of the most common questions I get from GRE followers, yeah, it's where do you see mortgage rates going? Because these people, they're not a lot of our followers, they're not following the intricacies of the market. Most of our followers have full time jobs as doctors or dentists or engineers or IT workers, and they're not following the ins and outs. And so the most common question that I get is, where are interest rates going? And I've been pretty spot on for the past few years, minus a few mistakes that I thought the Fed made. But I'm very confident when I say, just like I said when I came on earlier this year, that interest rates are on their way down there, and they are not on their way up.   Keith Weinhold  29:51   Just wait until this administration gets their guy in as the Fed chair. It almost feels like we're going to see a Javier Malay Argentina. President, you know, coming in with the chainsaw, they want to cut rates so aggressively, this administration, and Jerome Powell has sort of been a buffer against that, and Naresh has been using the term disinflation. I don't want you, the listener, to confuse that with deflation. Deflation means an increase in the purchasing power of your dollar, something that we rarely see. Disinflation means a slowing in price increases, meaning the rate of inflation goes down. And yes, I think it's been pretty obvious, and I've stated on the show before as well, that the Fed cares more about the employment situation than they do the inflation situation, probably, and you as an investor, you need to be careful what you wish for, because low rates sound really good, and they can be, but high employment typically correlates with high interest rates of all types, and lower employment typically correlates with low rates of all types. Rates get lowered because they know that the economy needs the help so you can't get both. You can't get both high employment and low rates. That condition doesn't persist for very long. And the Naresh during this part of the cycle, it's really been unusual and interesting at how new build properties have such advantages for investors today, including the aberration that the median new build property costs $33,500 less than the median existing property. That data is per the NAR when we think about new build property. Well, wait, first of all, that sounds amazing, and some people are incredulous about that, but there are reasons that the average new build property costs less. A lot of times the size is smaller. A lot of builders are building further from city centers. So I think before an investor gets in and buys a new build property, one really important question for them to ask is, oh, okay, well, how far is that property from an employment center. But otherwise, it's really the right time in the cycle for new build. New build can make your investment more passive. You know, you've got new fixtures, of course, and a warranty, and you're going to have lower insurance costs as well, typically, on a new build property. And Naresh, as you're talking with our followers and investors about new build property. I'm just kind of wondering, do you get more people that want to self manage the property because it's new build, because they figured that their maintenance and repair requests are going to be fewer? Or what do you see in there?   Naresh Vissa  32:35   No, not at all. Because the strength of GRE is that we connect investors, we coach investors so that they can own real estate around the country. They're not owning real estate in their neighborhood or in the area that they live in. We only focus on markets that make sense, generally linear markets, state friendly landlord friendly states, those other markets we are focusing on. So even with new builds we are seeing, I would say 100% of investors saying, hey, I want professional property manager, managing the property that's extremely, extremely common, that is the norm. I will also say, with new builds you brought up earlier, when you introduced me, I own several properties. The last two properties I bought were new construction. Were new builds. Yeah. And I personally comparing the first six properties of rehabs to my last two, which were new builds, I've had far fewer issues with the new builds, not just far fewer issues. I would say overall, the profitability has been greater with the new builds, despite the pro forma initially showing that I would barely Break Even now, I did buy several several years ago before all this appreciation and inflation hit. But it certainly helped a lot to have new builds where the maintenance is far lower and where the quality of the tenant is extremely high. So I generally recommend our investors, if you have the capital available, and generally, just to keep things simple, I say if you have $100,000 in liquid cash ready to go, there's no reason why you shouldn't be buying a new build. Would I waste my time with the rehabs, with the burrs. I mean, those could be profitable too. You should never say no to anything but the new builds. I've slept better at night because of those reasons, because I know at least for the first 10 years that there aren't going to be any major problems and the quality of the tenant is going to be far higher. So I'm a huge fan of new builds, not pre construction. Pre construction means you're buying a plot of land, and then you hope that the builder is going to build a home on top of it. And most of the time, the builder does, but many times, as we saw during the pandemic, there were key. Countless stories around the country of developers selling pre construction and then nothing ever got built. They ended up flipping the land and generating a profit off of it. I don't recommend those at all, but new construction is the way to go. And I'll also add one more tidbit about the previous topic that we talked about, regarding interest rates also remember that lower interest rates mean that the government and their debt they're going to be paying, they can refinance their debt and pay lower interest on their debt when interest rates go down. So that's also going to help reduce the the deficit, and it's going to help reduce the debt as well. So that will help bring inflation down.   Keith Weinhold  35:42   We're talking about buying a property that's already built with new construction, and in a lot of cases, like we'll talk about shortly, it's already tenanted for you as well. So it really reduces the guesswork and the waiting. And of course, new build properties tend to appreciate better than existing properties. So, yeah, tell us more about new build properties, because they tend to be in Florida and Texas that really has an outsized number of them right now. And that's where the builders are really giving incentives when we talk about appreciation, and where we think about appreciation going in the future. You know, appreciation has been really tepid, really boring. Prices have even contracted a little in some Florida and Texas sub markets, but with the long term trend, visual capitalists just shared a terrific map from today to 2050 for example, the Texas population is expected to grow 27% one of the fastest growth states that there is going to be. And a lot of people say, Oh, isn't it going to pass California in population soon? No, not anytime soon. It'll be decades. California is expected to grow 8% over the next 25 years, but Texas is a place where the numbers still can make sense on new build, because you have some overbuilding. So some builders are really incentivized to give you a good deal.   Naresh Vissa  37:06   Well, there are several markets in general. Let's just talk about it. You use an important term, which is appreciation. With new builds, the likelihood of appreciation is greater. This is statistically backed up. You can go check your sources, but the likelihood of appreciation is far greater with new builds compared to older rehabs, a property that's 50 years old, six years old. In fact, those properties probably appreciated early on in their life cycle, and that's just generally how it works. So with new builds, I say look, cash flow is still important. Cash flow is one of the tenets of real estate paying five ways. It's one of the core tenets of get rich education. But you also have that appreciation play with new builds. Again, it's about markets, because if you're buying a new build in, let's say a California or a New York or a New Hampshire, some really anywhere in the northeast, then it is somewhat of a speculative play, depending on the price point, depending on a lot of different other factors. But when you're talking about the markets that we operate in at GRE you brought up two of them, Florida and Texas. There are other markets, like in Tennessee and Oklahoma, where we have new constructions, and they are also positive, cash flowing, high appreciation place. So you just never know what's going to happen. I bought a new construction, for example, just outside of Memphis six years ago. It was just outside of Memphis in Mississippi six years ago, and I bought it for purely cash flow purposes. The pro forma looked good. Property was brand new. It was near several areas where there were many jobs. So I said, Hey, this is a good cash flow play. And I even remember asking my sales agent, hey, what do you think about appreciation? I usually never buy for appreciation, but this is a new construction. What do you think? And he said, You know what? I don't know if this is really going to appreciate that much. I'm not really sure about that. So I said, that's fine. I like the cash flow. Well, fast forward, six years later, as I said, we you just never know what's going to happen. We saw this inflation. We also saw an influx of people migrating into Tennessee, migrating into Mississippi, especially that Mississippi Tennessee border migrating into the Memphis area. Now we have the Trump administration, sent in the National Guard  about about a month ago, sent in the National Guard into the Memphis area, and they haven't left. They're still there, and crime has is at least based on the numbers that crime has really the National Guard has made a big difference on crime, and that's usually the number one deterrent for a market like Memphis. The point that I'm making here is that you just never know what's going to happen with these new construction builds. If you can get positive cash flow, I always tell our listeners. Shouldn't buy a new construction that's negatively cash flowing. You still want to protect yourself. You don't want to be paying money out of your bank account to own a property. Money should be coming in. So you still want to be positive cash flow. And the appreciation is a huge, huge plus, even in areas that you would not think or that you would not expect to appreciate all that much.   Keith Weinhold  40:22   Appreciation just is not as much of a story over on some other platforms, perhaps, or the way that people think about it, because if you pay all cash, appreciation isn't that good for you, but you're leveraged at four to one or five to one with a 20 to 25% down payment, which can really give you those outsized rates of return, which aligns with what we talk about here at GRE Well, we have a live upcoming virtual event. It is this coming Thursday, and before I ask you if you have anything else to tell the audience here as we wrap up, Naresh, it is hosted by you. So it is co hosted by our own in house investment coach Naresh, and our guest that you heard last week here on the show radio veteran Adam. The Event Thursday is called how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties where you can get up to $41,000 cash back after closing, we talk about these builder incentives. So today's real estate market is really giving buyers opportunities for new builds that I haven't seen, maybe ever. Builders are incentivized to move their properties, and we've made headway with builders to get you up to a 10% cash back incentive at closing when you purchase, you can either take the cash at closing or boost your cash flow by buying down your rate, perhaps get some rent credits, so learn how you can take advantage and really prime yourselves for moves today that are going to lead to your success in coming years. And we have tenanted again, tenanted already occupied new build properties in hot markets like Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Texas, ready for you to purchase with up to that 10% builder incentive so that you can cash flow from day one. And these properties are really in high quality communities, primarily owner occupied, high appreciation, upside, solid rent growth. So learn the strategy, learn the markets and even see available new build income property. The benefit of you attending is that you can have your questions answered in real time by Naresh or Adam. You can sign up for that now at grewebinars.com It is Thursday, November 13, at 8pm Eastern. Any last thoughts as we lead into Thursday, Naresh?   Naresh Vissa  42:45   Gre, webinars.com gre, webinars.com go to that website to register for our free online special event. It will be live. I'm going to be there with Adam. You heard on last week's podcast, we've got some great deals and great incentives, like what you said, Keith, and they're all new constructions. They're all new constructions, mostly in Texas. And these are major markets in Texas too. We're not talking, yeah, many of our followers and listeners, they see a new construction, and they're like, I've never heard of this place in Alabama, or I've never heard of this place in Oklahoma. These are in legitimate suburbs, areas outside of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, some of them are even in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio proper. So these are markets that everybody is familiar with. It's not some podunk town that you may have seen on our GREmarketplace or GRE spreadsheet in an Arkansas or in Alabama. These are mostly in Texas. The incentives are great, and these are national builders as well. These are not small, no name, Mom and Pop builders. These are national builders who we are working with to offer these special incentives. These are names like you've heard. Many people have heard. Some of them are publicly traded companies like an LGI, that's a very large national builder. That's who we've partnered with to get these deals so grewebinars.com is the link to register for our online special event. GREwebinars.com. I hope to see all of you this Thursday,   Keith Weinhold  44:31   major builders, major markets and major incentives on new build property. You're going to hear more from Naresh on Thursday, it's been great having you back on the show.   Naresh Vissa  44:43   Thanks a lot. Keith   Keith Weinhold  44:50   oh yeah. Naresh does a better job of hosting GRE webinars than I do. In my opinion, you'll remember that I hosted them myself until 2020 23 but you know, maybe I'll come on to a future event for just the first five minutes on one of the upcoming ones, and give an intro before I let the real pros take over. This event is called really just what it is, how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties. It's co hosted by Naresh and Adam, who you met last week. I have never seen this before, where the builder is giving you a fat 10% discount after closing, 10% you can use those 10s of 1000s of dollars to buy your rate down into the fours or other things like use it toward a down payment on another property, pair it with DSCR loans and pay no mortgage insurance on either property. You could buy one property or two properties or 18 properties through the event and DSCR loans. You might remember that means no time consuming income verification, no concerns about your debt to income ratio or W twos or tax returns. We'll show you how to do it all. Like Naresh was saying, we eat our own cooking. We ourselves. Here at GRE are investors too, and we are buying new build for our own personal portfolios. The time is right for this. It wasn't a few years ago, and a few years from now, it probably won't be either. Hundreds are already signed up for it. It is this Thursday, at 8pm Eastern. It's GRE, last event of the year. This is it one last time attend by signing up at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  46:59   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. You   Keith Weinhold  47:27   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com  

On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, Stewart Alsop sits down with Brad Costanzo, founder and CEO of Accelerated Intelligence, for a wide-ranging conversation that stretches from personal development and the idea that “my mess is my message” to the risks of AI psychosis, the importance of cognitive armor, and Brad's sovereign mind framework. They talk about education through the lens of the Trivium, the natural pull of elites and hierarchies, and how Bitcoin and stablecoins tie into the future of money, inflation, and technological deflation. Brad also shares his perspective on the synergy between AI and Bitcoin, the dangers of too-big-to-fail banks, and why decentralized banking may be the missing piece. To learn more about Brad's work, visit acceleratedintelligence.ai or reach out directly at brad@acceleratedintelligence.ai.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:00 Brad Costanzo joins Stewart Alsop, opening with “my mess is my message” and Accelerated Intelligence as a way to frame AI as accelerated, not artificial.05:00 They explore AI as a tool for personal development, therapy versus coaching, and AI's potential for self-insight and pattern recognition.10:00 The conversation shifts to AI psychosis, hype cycles, gullibility, and the need for cognitive armor, leading into Brad's sovereign mind framework of define, collaborate, and refine.15:00 They discuss education through the Trivium—grammar, logic, rhetoric—contrasted with the Prussian mass education model designed for factory workers.20:00 The theme turns to elites, natural hierarchies, and the Robbers Cave experiment showing how quickly humans split into tribes.25:00 Bitcoin enters as a silent, nonviolent revolution against centralized money, with Hayek's quote on sound money and the Trojan horse of Wall Street adoption.30:00 Stablecoins, treasuries, and the Treasury vs Fed dynamic highlight how monetary demand is being engineered through crypto markets.35:00 Inflation, disinflation, and deflation surface, tied to real estate costs, millennials vs boomers, Austrian economics, and Jeff Booth's “Price of Tomorrow.”40:00 They connect Bitcoin and AI as deflationary forces, population decline, productivity gains, and the idea of a personal Bitcoin denominator.45:00 The talk expands into Bitcoin mining, AI data centers, difficulty adjustments, and Richard Werner's insights on quantitative easing, commercial banks, and speculative vs productive loans.50:00 Wrapping themes center on decentralized banking, the dangers of too-big-to-fail, assets as protection, Bitcoin's volatility, and why it remains the strongest play for long-term purchasing power.Key InsightsOne of the strongest insights Brad shares is the shift from artificial intelligence to accelerated intelligence. Instead of framing AI as something fake or external, he sees it as a leverage tool to amplify human intelligence—whether emotional, social, spiritual, or business-related. This reframing positions AI less as a threat to authenticity and more as a partner in unlocking dormant creativity.Personal development surfaces through the mantra “my mess is my message.” Brad emphasizes that the struggles, mistakes, and rock-bottom moments in life can become the foundation for helping others. AI plays into this by offering low-cost access to self-insight, giving people the equivalent of a reflective mirror that can help them see patterns in their own thinking without immediately needing therapy.The episode highlights the emerging problem of AI psychosis. People overly immersed in AI conversations, chatbots, or hype cycles can lose perspective. Brad and Stewart argue that cognitive armor—what Brad calls the “sovereign mind” framework of define, collaborate, and refine—is essential to avoid outsourcing one's thinking entirely to machines.Education is another theme, with Brad pointing to the classical Trivium—grammar, logic, and rhetoric—as the foundation of real learning. Instead of mass education modeled on the Prussian system for producing factory workers, he argues for rhetoric, debate, and critical thinking as the ultimate tests of knowledge, even in an AI-driven world.When the discussion turns to elites, Brad acknowledges that hierarchies are natural and unavoidable, citing experiments like Robbers Cave. The real danger lies not in elitism itself, but in concentrated control—particularly financial elites who maintain power through the monetary system.Bitcoin is framed as a “silent, nonviolent revolution.” Brad describes it as a Trojan horse—appearing as a speculative asset while quietly undermining government monopoly on money. Stablecoins, treasuries, and the Treasury vs Fed conflict further reveal how crypto is becoming a new driver of monetary demand.Finally, the synergy between AI and Bitcoin offers a hopeful counterbalance to deflation fears and demographic decline. AI boosts productivity while Bitcoin enforces financial discipline. Together, they could stabilize a future where fewer people are needed for the same output, costs of living decrease, and savings in hard money protect purchasing power—even against the inertia of too-big-to-fail banks.

Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money.We discussed her views on Fed rate cuts, inflation, credit spreads, the weakening consumer, recession risk, the housing market, her outlook for the US dollar…even the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce engagement.Stephanie is eagerly awaiting next month's FOMC decision, as she thinks it has potential to be the event that punctures the market's current blind optimism — if the Fed starts cutting its policy rate but bond yields don't come down as hoped.What does she expect to happen if they don't?Find out by watching this video.And follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/Or on X at @spomboyLOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#federalreserve #inflation #marketcorrection 0:01 - Fed drama: Powell's Jackson Hole speech, staffing changes, and structural debates2:30 - Importance of Fed actions for financial markets and market mispricing8:15 - Potential triggers for bond yield declines: short squeeze or safety trade14:49 - Fed intervention risks: QE or operation twist amid economic slowdown20:05 - Investment strategy: Gold and energy as hedges against dollar debasement 9:03 - Inflation outlook: Disinflation expected due to consumer distress36:04 - Corporate margin squeeze and potential job losses41:41 - Why credit spreads remain tight despite economic risks48:30 - Housing market distress: High cancellations, cash-outs, and oversupply55:00 - Boomer aging and housing market headwinds58:13 - Thoughtful Money Fall Conference teaser, October 18th58:59 - Dollar outlook: Short-term strength, long-term decline vs. gold1:01:04 - Taylor Swift engagement's negligible economic impact1:03:30 - Where to follow Stephanie Pomboy's work_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The UK actually managed to publish some data without delay or suspension. July inflation rates were slightly higher than expected, although disinflation forces are also evident. A 30.2% monthly increase in airfares did much to push the figures higher. This is almost certainly a seasonal adjustment distortion related to school holidays.

Mark Blyth is a professor of international economics at Brown University. In Mark's first appearance on the show, he discusses his new book Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers, the concept of angrynomics, a new way to look at price controls, demographic decline, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 4th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Mark on X: @MkBlyth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:50 - Angrynomics 00:03:56 - Motivation for ‘Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers' 00:08:27 - Five Things They Don't Tell You About Inflation 00:14:32 - Good, Bad, and Ugly Inflation 00:18:14 - Interest Rates and Inflation 00:21:33 - Price Controls 00:26:13 - Stories About Inflation 00:35:03 - Hyperinflation 00:42:24 - Pandemic Inflation 00:58:00 - Disinflation, China, and Demographic Decline 01:00:30 - Recommendations for Policymakers 01:02:00 - Outro

Japan exhibited some disinflation with the June Tokyo consumer price data. Using the international definition of core inflation, the rate slowed to 1.8% y/y. A lot of the headline inflation seems to be driven by non-fresh food, perhaps suggesting relative price shifts rather than strong, broad inflation momentum.

Consumer Spending and Incomes going down was a standout in the latest PCE data, says Mish Schneider. The slight uptick in core inflation to 2.7% was more than expected, but "not a huge surprise" to her. She posits the question: is the U.S. economy showing signs of disinflation or stagflation? Mish says there are 3 major factors where we go from here: oil prices, Fed Policy and the "Big, Beautiful Bill." In terms of positioning, she likes Silver, "Made in the USA" companies, E.V. and Solar companies. Later, she makes the case for staying in Rivian (RIVN) and Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

There has been much talk of disinflation, but all the evidence points toward the conclusion that the Federal Reserve continues to administer injections of monetary inflation.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/there-no-disinflation

There has been much talk of disinflation, but all the evidence points toward the conclusion that the Federal Reserve continues to administer injections of monetary inflation.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/there-no-disinflation

UK economic indicators pointed to persistent disinflation trends last week, even as uncertainty remained elevated. Bank of England ("BoE") Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, reinforced the case for policy easing, noting inflationary pressures are fading and labour market risks warrant caution. Several Monetary Policy Committee members echoed this sentiment in parliamentary appearances, with Swati Dhingra flagging downside risks to growth and Catherine Mann warning of tensions between rate cuts and quantitative tightening. The final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) in May improved to 50.3, led by a rebound in services, but backlogs declined and cost pressures persisted. The Confederation of British Industry's (“CBI”) private sector growth indicator slipped to a two-year low, and BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey saw little movement in inflation expectations...Stocks featured:Antofagasta, Fresnillo and WPPTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management's own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anthony Saccaro says the delays and reneging in tariff policy are negotiation tactics, and Consumer Confidence is reflecting that reading. He discusses how to play volatility depending on where you are in life. He talks about how disinflation and tariffs are not mutually exclusive, and where he's looking to invest during this volatility. He's particularly focused on companies that pay dividends.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/juliaA global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.Links:  QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact 2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity 3:50 MBS rolloff implications 5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies 8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings 9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook 11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics 13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs 15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores 16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season 19:49 Senior housing opportunities 20:50 White collar recession analysis 23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal 26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation 27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis 32:01 Closing remarks

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter weighs the myriad variables which could impact global markets in 2025, and why this year may be the most uncertain for economies since the start of the pandemic.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist, and today I'll be talking about 2025 and what we might expect in the global economy.It's Tuesday, January 7th at 10am in New York.Normally, our year ahead outlook is a roadmap for markets. But for 2025, it feels a bit more like a choose your own adventure book.uncertainty is a key theme that we highlighted in our year ahead outlook. The new U.S. administration, in particular, will choose its own adventure with tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy.Some of the uncertainty is already visible in markets with the repricing of the Fed at the December meeting and the strengthening of the dollar. Our baseline has disinflation stalling on the back of tariffs and immigration policy, while growth moderates, but only late in the year as the policies are gradually phased in.But in reality, the sequencing, the magnitude and the timing of these policies remains unknown for now, but they're going to have big implications for the economies and central banks around the world. The U.S. economy comes into the year on solid footing with healthy payrolls and solid consumption spending.Disinflation is continuing, and the inflation data for November were in line with our forecast, but softer in terms of PCE than what the Fed expected. While the Fed did lower their policy rate 25 basis points at the December meeting, Chair Powell's tone was very cautious, and the Fed's projections had inflation risks skewed to the upside.The chair noted that the FOMC was only beginning to build in assumptions about policy changes from the new administration. Now, we have conviction that tariffs and immigration restriction will both slow the economy and boost inflation -- but we've assumed that these policies are phased in gradually over the entirety of the year. And consequently -- that materially Stagflationary impetus? Well, it's reserved for 2026, not this year.Similarly, we've assumed that effectively the entire year is consumed by the process of tax cut extensions. And so, we've penciled in no meaningful fiscal impetus for this year. And in fact, with the bulk of the process simply extending current tax policy, we have very little net fiscal impact, even in 2026.Now, in China, the deflationary pressure is set to continue with any policy reaction further complicated by U.S. policy uncertainty. The policymaker meeting in late December that they held provided only a modest upside surprise in terms of fiscal stimulus, so we're going to have to wait for any further details on that spending until March with the National People's Congress.Meanwhile, during our holiday break, the renminbi broke above 7.3, and that level matches roughly the peaks that we saw in 2022 and 2023. The strong dollar is clearly weighing on the fixing. The framework for policy will have to account for a potentially trade relationship with the U.S. So, again, in China, there's a great deal of uncertainty, a lot of it driven by policy.The euro area is arguably less exposed to U.S. trade risks than China. A weaker euro may help stabilize inflation that's trending lower there, but our growth forecasts suggest a tepid outlook. Private consumption spending should moderate, and maybe firm a bit, as inflation continues to fall, and continued policy easing from the ECB should support CapEx spending.Fiscal consolidation, though, is a key risk to growth, especially in France and Italy, and any postponement in investment from potential trade tensions could further weaken growth.Now, in Japan, the key debate is whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates in January or March. After the last Bank of Japan meeting, Governor Ueda indicated a desire for greater confidence on the inflation outlook.Nonetheless, we've retained our call that the hike will be in January because we believe the Bank of Japan's regional Branch manager meeting will give sufficient insight about a strong wage trend. And in combination with the currency weakness that we've been watching, we think that's gonna be enough for the BOJ to hike this month. Alternatively, the BOJ might wait until the Rengo negotiation results come out in March to decide if a hike is appropriate. So far, the data remains supportive and Japanese style core CPI inflation has gone to 2.7 per cent in November. The market's going to focus on Deputy Governor Himino's speech on January 14th for clues on the timing – January or March.Finally, as the Central Bank of Mexico highlighted in their most recent rate cut decision, caution is the word as we enter the new year. As economists, we could not agree more. The year ahead is the most uncertain since the start of the pandemic. Politics and policy are inherently difficult to forecast. We fully expect to revise our forecasts more -- and more often than usual.Thanks for listening, and if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

David Zervos tells us why he thinks the Fed is too restrictive heading into the Trump administratio. A retail analyst brings us the four names he's most bullish heading into 2025--including one stock that's up 20% in the past month. Plus, the PMG CEO gives us his read on the health of commercial real estate, and why rents won't be falling any time soon. 

Cem Karsan returns to discuss volatility trends into 2025. He notes recent slowdowns in the VIX won't stop an uptrend in volatility next year. He also makes the case for a disinflationary Trump presidency and points to China as the focal point. Cem notes a potential Chinese stock rally alongside his case. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Opinions are cheap so we're making it up in volume, with three takes on the future of the economy. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – gather to discuss looming inflation, the next 25 years of returns from the stock market and the challenges facing the so-called ‘department of government efficiency'. Also we go long Disney and long Turkey, the country.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction.Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon.An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the government.China would love some over-heating.Do we want to drive cars that are potentially controlled from Beijing? Or is that just science fiction? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Later this morning, we’ll get the consumer price index for September. While inflation is way down from its peak in June 2022, consumers are frustrated with persistently high prices. We’ll hear more. Plus, how does a Nobel win in literature influence book sales? We’ll hear from the publishers of last year’s Nobel laureate, Norwegian playwright and author Jon Fosse, about how they dealt with a surge in demand.

US September consumer price inflation should show a slower rate of growth in the headline measure. Now that the Federal Reserve has finally started its easing cycle, this matters a little less to markets, but it is still important. Critically, middle-income inflation is running at about half the headline rate, and that gives the group an important degree of spending power.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin native, interactive podcast covering where Bitcoin and traditional finance meet on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Jesse Myers (Croesus), Michael Tanguma, and a special weekly guest host. Join us as we dive into what Bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, and propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset - in the digital age, it's the Last Trade that investors will ever need to make. Deep Knowledge Investing Use coupon code “Onramp25” for a 25% discount on your first subscription for DKI. It can be used for a monthly or an annual subscription. Annual is a better deal and a bigger discount. Coupon can be used once per person by an unlimited number of people. Expires 12/31/24. 0:00 - Welcoming back Gary Brode 1:34 - Analyzing the impact of last week's 50bps cut 4:47 - A message from Onramp 5:31 - Disinflation vs. deflation 11:23 - Consequences of debt & government spending 16:00 - You can't save in dollars or govt bonds 23:12 - Drivers of gold's resurgence 31:38 - Bitcoin's long-term trajectory 41:51 - Determining the right position size 50:52 - Death of the 60/40 portfolio 52:22 - Onramp Multi-Institution Custody 53:50 - Historical context around inflationary trends 1:03:16 - Zombie companies & economic realities 1:08:08 - The emotional impact of inflation on society 1:17:25 - China's economic challenges & stimulus 1:25:15 - The patriotic persuasion of war bonds 1:31:33 - Operation Choke Point 2.0 1:43:08 - Outro Schedule time with the link below if you would ever like to learn more about Onramp and please sign up for weekly Research and Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/ https://onrampbitcoin.com/category/onramp-media/

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners' equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

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Cut taxes on SS and Tips? President decides rates? China - inflation ticking up YEN volatility - NOT OVER PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Cut taxes on SS and Tips? - President decides rates? - China - inflation ticking up - YEN volatility - NOT OVER - Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP Market Update - CRISIS AVERTED - August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data - Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual - Same old  = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down - PPI out - changing direction Crisis Averted - Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on - Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10%  - intervention anyone? --- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here ---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments ---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up --- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$) - Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL Volume/Vacations - August - Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower - Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day - However  - big week of ECO data - - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here) Month to Date MTD IWN iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF -7.87% IWM iShs Russell 2000 ETF -7.10% IWO iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF -6.15% IWD iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF -2.45% IWB iShs Russell 1000 ETF -1.68% IWF iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF -1.00% Really? - Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. - The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday - Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now... ***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035 --- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS ---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of population Where do we stand on this.. - Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions? Switcher-rooo - Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024 - -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10% China - China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday. - Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June. - Is this good news or bad? PPI - July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4% -- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns - Tomorrow - CPI Another one... - Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand. - The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors,

The publication of US consumer price inflation forces economists to become used car salespeople and real estate fantasists. Part of the disinflationary trends come from used cars (which most US households will not buy this year) and the fictional owners' equivalent rent (which no one pays). Disinflation in these categories does not improve the spending power of most consumers.

Levels for the S&P 500 cash and futures to pay attention to 

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Disinflation traction today's tailwind for risk sentiment following cooler July PPI print. Macro expected to remain the key near-term directional impulse. Retail also traded well today despite some initially disappointing earnings takeaways.

Ted Oakley is a seasoned investment expert with over 40 years of experience helping high-net-worth individuals preserve their wealth. In this episode, we delve into the complexities of today's economic landscape, focusing on inflation, deflation, and the volatility in various markets. This conversation is packed with valuable advice for investors and business owners looking to navigate uncertain times and protect their financial future. Check out the show notes for more information! If you like this episode, here are more episodes we think you'll enjoy: David McAlvany - Building Wealth and Legacy in Inflationary Times - Ep# 489 Alastair Macdonald - Circumventing Economic Crises and the Pursuit of Wisdom - Ep# 493 Anna Kelley - Building Wealth and Teaching Financial Wisdom to the Next Generation - Ep# 475 P.S. Whenever you're ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you're closer than you think) : 1. Schedule a Call with My Team: If you'd like to replace the earned income you need from your practice with investment income in as little as 2-3 years, and you have at least 1M in available capital (can include equity or practice sale), then schedule a call with my team. If it looks like there is a mutual fit, you'll have the opportunity to attend one of our upcoming member events as a guest. 2. Become a Full-Cycle Investor: There are many self-proclaimed genius investors today who think everything they touch turns to gold. But they're about to learn the hard way what others have gained through “expensive” experience. I'm offering a report on how to become a full-cycle investor, who knows how to preserve and grow capital in Up markets and Down markets. Will you be prepared when the inevitable recession hits? Get your free report here. 3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard: Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard. 

The Bank of England's rate decision is due. Unlike some other central banks, the BoE has a tradition of dissent and disagreement. Arguably this produces better quality decisions (that is only true if the BoE agrees with my view and cuts rates). Disinflation forces argue that the bank should lower rates to prevent unnecessary real policy tightening, which would be a relief for the minority of households with a mortgage.

00:13-01:48 – Introduction 01:49-07:08 – Investment Journey 07:10-11:38 – Investment and Inflation 11:39-12:17 – Wealth building, debt elimination 12:19-16:20 – Federal debt and policy 16:21-20:10 – How to protect the value of our dollar 20:31- 29:28 – Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation 29:32 – 38:43 – Lessons from history regarding inflation, Personal Economy Go live life […]

Capital Investment Advisors Wealth Management Analyst Jeff Lloyd joins Wes on today's show to wade through the financial issues affecting people in today's environment. First, they zoom in on the summer's booming travel industry, including eye-opening Disney statistics. Then they take a bite of some tasty apple data, pour over today's inflation numbers vs. the past two years, and analyze how disinflation and lower overall inflation might mean the Fed is one step closer to lowering rates. Finally, they remind listeners that no matter where the market sits, history demonstrates perfection attempts are typically riskier than allowing patience and participation to produce results.

Carson's midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now!How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their midyear outlook, discussing everything from the economy and inflation to the Fed's position and stock market expectations. You'll hear about their insights into the labor market's strength, inflation trends, and the possibility of future Fed rate cuts.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The current state and future outlook of the U.S. economyRecent trends in inflation and the Federal Reserve's next movesStock market analysis and predictions for the second half of the yearPortfolio strategies and the role of alternatives in today's financial landscapeAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Midyear Outlook '24: Eyes on The PrizeLive Webinar Link - Tuesday, July 16 at 1pm CTConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slowsGlobal Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the May PCE data on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss disinflation is resuming as the consumer runs out of savings on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

Yesterday's US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and producer prices will not be fully experienced by consumers. The slowing fantasy price of owners' equivalent rent does not affect real world spending power. Seasonal adjustments deliberately distort reality, and so disinflation here does not change consumers' inflation experiences.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week. 

Our Global Cross-Asset Strategist and Global Chief Economist discuss the state of asset markets at the midway point of 2024, and why the current backdrop suggests positive directions for several key markets.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: And yesterday, Serena, you and I discussed Morgan Stanley's global economic mid-year outlook. And today, I'm going to turn the tables on you, and we'll talk about asset markets.It's Tuesday, May 21st, at 10am in New York.Okay, so yesterday we talked about all sorts of different parts of the macro environment. Disinflation, inflation, central bank policy, growth. But when you think about all of that -- that macro backdrop -- what does it mean to you for markets across the world?Serena Tang: Right, I think the outlook laid out by your team of stable growth, disinflation, rate cuts. That is a great backdrop for risk assets, one of the reasons why we got overweight in global equities. Now, there will likely be low visibility and uncertainty beyond year end, and why we recommend investors should focus on the triple C's of cheap optionality, convexity, and carry.That very benign backdrop suggests more bullish possibilities. Your team has noted several times now that the patterns we're seeing now and what we expect have parallels to what happened in the mid 1990s -- when the Fed cut in small increments, US growth was sustained at high levels, and the labor market was strong. And now I'm not suggesting that this is 1990s and we should party like it. But just that the last time we found ourselves in this kind of benign macro environment, risk assets -- actually most markets did really well.Seth Carpenter: So, I will say the 1990s was a pretty good decade for me. However, you mentioned some uncertainty ahead, low visibility. We titled our macroeconomic outlook ‘Are we there yet?' Because I agree, we do feel like we're on a path to something pretty good, but we're not out of the woods yet. So, when you say there's some low visibility about where asset markets are going, maybe beyond year end, what do you mean by that?Serena Tang: I think there's less visibility going into 2025. And specifically, I'm talking about the US elections. When I think about the range of possible outcomes, all I can confidently say is that it's wide, which I think you can see reflected in our strategist's latest forecast. Most teams actually have relatively constructive forecast returns for their assets in the base case, but there's an unusually wide gap between their bull and bear cases for bond and equity markets.Seth Carpenter: Let me narrow it down a little bit because equity markets have actually performed pretty well during the first half of the year. So what do you think is going to happen specifically with equities going forward? How should we be thinking about equity markets per se?Serena Tang: Equities have rallied a lot, but we've actually gotten more bullish. I talked about the three Cs of cheap optionality, convexity, and carry earlier, and I think European and Japanese equities really tick these boxes. Both of these markets also have above average dividend yields, especially for a dollar-based FX hedge investor.Serena Tang: Where we think there might be some underperformance is really in EM equities, but it's a bit nuanced. Our China equity strategy team thinks that consensus mid-teens earnings growth expectation for this year will still likely to disappoint given the Chinese growth forecast that you talked about yesterday.Seth Carpenter: Alright, in that case. Let me flip over to fixed income. A lot of that is often driven by central banks. Around the world, you just mentioned EM equities may be struggling a little bit. A lot of EM central banks are either cutting a little bit ahead of the Fed, but being cautious, worrying about not getting too far ahead of the Fed. So, if that's what's going on with policy rates at the very front end of the curve, what's happening in fixed income more broadly?Serena Tang: We generally see government bond yields lower over the forecast horizon for two reasons. On your team's forecast of central banks cutting rates and also in the US, an optical rise in the unemployment rate, our macro strategy team forecasts for the 10 year U.S. Treasury yields to fall to just above 4 per cent by the end of this year. And because government bond yields will be coming down, we also expect yields for spread products like agency MBS, investment grade, etc. to also come down. But I think for these spread products, returns can be positive beyond that duration piece.Serena Tang: So, credit loves moderation, and I think the mild growth backdrop your team is forecasting for is exactly that. US fixed income more generally should also see renewed flows from Japanese investors as FX hedging costs come down over the next six months. All of this supports tighter than average spreads.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so we talked about equities, we talked about fixed income. Big asset class that we haven't talked about yet are commodities. How bullish are you going into the summer? What do you think is going to go on and can that bullish view that you guys have last even longer?Serena Tang: So for crude oil, our strategists see market tightness over the summer, which could drive Brent to about $90 per barrel. You have demand coming in stronger than expected, and of course OPEC has extended its production agreement.But we also don't really expect prices to hold over the medium term. Non-OPEC supply should meet most of the global demand growth later this year and into 2025, which sort of leaves very little room for OPEC to unwind production cuts. We expect Brent to revert back steadily to its long-term anchor, which is probably somewhere around $80 per barrel.Serena Tang: For copper, it's actually our metal strategist's top pick right now, and it's very much driven by, I think, tightening supply and demand balance. You've had significant mine supply disruptions, but also better than expected demand and new drivers such as -- we've talked about AI a lot, data centers and increasing participation.Serena Tang: And on gold, in our view, pricing is likely to remain pretty choppy as investors have to weigh inflation risk, incoming data, and the Fed path. But historically, that first rate cut tends to be a very positive catalyst for gold. And we see risks more skewed to our bull case at the moment.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so talked about equities, talked about fixed income, talked about commodities. These are global markets, and often when investors are looking around the world and thinking about what it means for them, currencies come into it, and everybody's always going to be looking at the dollar. So why don't you run us through the Morgan Stanley view on where the US dollar is going to go over the rest of this year, and maybe over the next 12 months.Serena Tang: The short answer is we see the dollar staying stronger for longer. Yes, we expect central banks to begin cutting this year. But the pace of cuts and ultimate destinations are likely to vary widely. Now another potential dollar tailwind is an increased risk premium being priced for the 2024 US elections. We think that investors may begin to price in material risks to dollar positive changes in US foreign and trade policy as the election approaches, which we assume will sort of begin ramping up in the third quarter.Seth Carpenter: All right, let's step back from the details. I want you to bring us home now. Give me some strategy. So where should people lean in, where should we be looking for the best returns and where do we need to be super cautious?Serena Tang: In our asset allocation recommendation, we recommend overweight in global equities, overweight in spread products, equal weight in commodities, and underweight in cash.We really like European and Japanese equities on the back of pretty strong earnings revision, attractive relative valuations, and good carry for a dollar based investor. We like spread products. Not so much that our strategists are not expecting duration to do well. We are still expecting yields to come down.Serena Tang: Where we are most cautious on, really, continues to be EM equities. From a very top down perspective, the outlook we have is constructive stable growth, continued disinflation, rate cuts. These make for a good environment for risk assets. But uncertainties beyond year end, that really argues for investors to look for assets which have those triple Cs, cheap optionality, convexity, and carry.And we think Japanese and European equities and spread products within fixed income take those boxes.Seth Carpenter: Alright, looking at the clock, I'm going to have to cut you off there. I could talk to you all day. Thank you for coming in and letting me turn the tables relative to yesterday when you were asking me all the questions.Serena Tang: Great speaking with you, Seth. And yes, I know we can go on forever.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And share this episode with a friend or a colleague today.

NVDIA & Fed speakers are in the spotlight this week; stock buyback are running higher than normal. The risk of recession; when will the Fed cut rates? Durable Goods are in deflation; Services are seeing higher inflation, tied to discretionary spending. Markets finish previous week at all time highs; when will they pull back? Wathcing for a bullish cross of the 20- and 50-DMA. AI can now lie and cheat; bad economic news is good news; the majority of earnings growth is coming from ten stocks; the impact of retail sales, debt ratios, and falling consumer spending. The connection between retail sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP; NFIB Inflation stats. Stocks are rallying in anticipation of Fed announcement, not stock buyback action. Power outages & Kolaches; Zoom and Palo Alto to report this week. Note the barriers to entry in considering a company's stock. SEG-1: NVDIA & Fed Speakers in Spotlight SEG-2: Teaching AI to Lie & Cheat; Bad News is Good News SEG-3: The Connection between Retail Sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP SEG-4: Power outage, Kolaches, & Barriers to Entry to Consider Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P9TN8Dzhd0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bad News Is Good News As Markets Set Record Highs" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Prepared for a Bullish Cross" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cvqdSYAkSI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 #BullishCross #MarketPullBack #InvestingAdvice ------- Our previous show is here: "How Long Will You Live?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTyaxINdMkY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #NVDIA #FedSpeakers #TeachingAItoCheat #RetailSales #Inflation #Disinflation #Markets #Money #Investing

NVDIA & Fed speakers are in the spotlight this week; stock buyback are running higher than normal. The risk of recession; when will the Fed cut rates? Durable Goods are in deflation; Services are seeing higher inflation, tied to discretionary spending. Markets finish previous week at all time highs; when will they pull back? Wathcing for a bullish cross of the 20- and 50-DMA. AI can now lie and cheat; bad economic news is good news; the majority of earnings growth is coming from ten stocks; the impact of retail sales, debt ratios, and falling consumer spending. The connection between retail sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP; NFIB Inflation stats. Stocks are rallying in anticipation of Fed announcement, not stock buyback action. Power outages & Kolaches; Zoom and Palo Alto to report this week. Note the barriers to entry in considering a company's stock. SEG-1: NVDIA & Fed Speakers in Spotlight SEG-2: Teaching AI to Lie & Cheat; Bad News is Good News SEG-3: The Connection between Retail Sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP SEG-4: Power outage, Kolaches, & Barriers to Entry to Consider Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P9TN8Dzhd0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bad News Is Good News As Markets Set Record Highs" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Prepared for a Bullish Cross" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cvqdSYAkSI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  #BullishCross #MarketPullBack #InvestingAdvice ------- Our previous show is here: "How Long Will You Live?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTyaxINdMkY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #NVDIA #FedSpeakers #TeachingAItoCheat #RetailSales #Inflation #Disinflation #Markets #Money #Investing

The UK British Retail Consortium's shop price index exhibited more disinflation than had been expected, with prices rising 1.3% y/y. This measure does include the discounting applied to loyalty card holders in the two-tier pricing system (consumer price inflation excludes this), and retailers have been keen to shore up customer loyalty with selective discounts as resentment about profit-led inflation has increased.

Join us this week as we discuss global macro strategies for 2024. We discuss the 2024 election & Outlook - will the election have an impact on markets? geopolitical impact? World stability? Econ stability- factors for better or worse? We discuss Russia, China, mid east, oil gold, bonds, partisan change in 2024, US political strategy vs geo political strategy, trade war w China, globalization vs deglobalization. --> hypo-globalization. inflation price collapse? Disinflation 1980-2020, China slowdown, and more. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-macro-strategies-for-2024-matt-gertken Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Tim Baker | Metric Fin   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we review the latest economic data points and whether what we're seeing is contributing to the "immaculate disinflation" narrative. In CRE, we break down multifamily stories, transactions across the country for retail and hotel properties, and share office stories that touch CMBS. We also dig in to our office operating expense report. Tune in. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - Retail sales (8:51) - Multifamily stories (15:24) - Office property expenses (24:00) - Office headlines (27:55) - Lodging transactions (41:48) - Shoutouts (47:06) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

After very high inflation, the United States is finally feeling some relief in the form of "disinflation." But, why exactly has inflation slowed down?Three Planet Money hosts try to answer that question while competing to be the winner of our very own reporting challenge: Econ Battle Zone! It's economics journalism meets high-stakes reality TV competition! Will our contestants be able to impress our celebrity judges? How will they manage to incorporate their mystery ingredients? Who will take home the championship belt? Tune in for the inaugural episode of...Econ Battle Zone!Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, a think tank that promotes full employment in the American economy, and Preston Mui is also a senior economist at Employ America. Skanda and Preston join Macro Musings to talk about U.S. disinflation and the debates surrounding it, as well as what we can expect from Fed policy in 2024 and beyond, and finally, the Fed's framework review that is set to begin later this year.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Medium archive   Preston's Twitter: @PrestonMui Preston's Github profile   Skanda and Preston's Employ America bios   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Ten Thoughts on the Tribal “Transitory” Debate as We Enter 2024* by Skanda Amarnath   *Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024* by Preston Mui and Skanda Amarnath   Jerome Powell's Opening Remarks at Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy, a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conferences, hosted by the IMF

News about inflation made a lot of noise in the past two years, but the national CPI reports seem to indicate that inflation is starting to normalize within the Federal Reserve's target range. However, the national CPI basket of goods can have trouble representing inflation at a local level. Today, we're joined by Drew Hawkins of the Gulf States Newsroom as he goes to the supermarket in New Orleans where the national CPI may not be the best measure of inflation for folks living in the South.For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.

It's episode 142 and inflation has continued to come down. The consumer is spending, the labor market is strong, earnings for the third quarter were the best in history and the Fed is likely to start cutting next year. On the Tipping Point, we discuss how working with a financial professional is like having a personal trainer for your health, but for your financial health. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth. 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome JDI Research founder Juliette Declercq to the show to discuss why she thinks we're in an immaculate disinflation, and what she sees on the horizon for markets. https://bit.ly/3O1WHrr   Download Juliette's charts: https://bit.ly/3pyYn2f   ⭐️Join Patrick for a LIVE webinar on Tuesday July 11th at 1pm ET⭐️ Sign up here ➡️ https://www.bigpicturetrading.com/money   Download Big Picture Trading chartbook