Podcasts about disinflation

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter weighs the myriad variables which could impact global markets in 2025, and why this year may be the most uncertain for economies since the start of the pandemic.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist, and today I'll be talking about 2025 and what we might expect in the global economy.It's Tuesday, January 7th at 10am in New York.Normally, our year ahead outlook is a roadmap for markets. But for 2025, it feels a bit more like a choose your own adventure book.uncertainty is a key theme that we highlighted in our year ahead outlook. The new U.S. administration, in particular, will choose its own adventure with tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy.Some of the uncertainty is already visible in markets with the repricing of the Fed at the December meeting and the strengthening of the dollar. Our baseline has disinflation stalling on the back of tariffs and immigration policy, while growth moderates, but only late in the year as the policies are gradually phased in.But in reality, the sequencing, the magnitude and the timing of these policies remains unknown for now, but they're going to have big implications for the economies and central banks around the world. The U.S. economy comes into the year on solid footing with healthy payrolls and solid consumption spending.Disinflation is continuing, and the inflation data for November were in line with our forecast, but softer in terms of PCE than what the Fed expected. While the Fed did lower their policy rate 25 basis points at the December meeting, Chair Powell's tone was very cautious, and the Fed's projections had inflation risks skewed to the upside.The chair noted that the FOMC was only beginning to build in assumptions about policy changes from the new administration. Now, we have conviction that tariffs and immigration restriction will both slow the economy and boost inflation -- but we've assumed that these policies are phased in gradually over the entirety of the year. And consequently -- that materially Stagflationary impetus? Well, it's reserved for 2026, not this year.Similarly, we've assumed that effectively the entire year is consumed by the process of tax cut extensions. And so, we've penciled in no meaningful fiscal impetus for this year. And in fact, with the bulk of the process simply extending current tax policy, we have very little net fiscal impact, even in 2026.Now, in China, the deflationary pressure is set to continue with any policy reaction further complicated by U.S. policy uncertainty. The policymaker meeting in late December that they held provided only a modest upside surprise in terms of fiscal stimulus, so we're going to have to wait for any further details on that spending until March with the National People's Congress.Meanwhile, during our holiday break, the renminbi broke above 7.3, and that level matches roughly the peaks that we saw in 2022 and 2023. The strong dollar is clearly weighing on the fixing. The framework for policy will have to account for a potentially trade relationship with the U.S. So, again, in China, there's a great deal of uncertainty, a lot of it driven by policy.The euro area is arguably less exposed to U.S. trade risks than China. A weaker euro may help stabilize inflation that's trending lower there, but our growth forecasts suggest a tepid outlook. Private consumption spending should moderate, and maybe firm a bit, as inflation continues to fall, and continued policy easing from the ECB should support CapEx spending.Fiscal consolidation, though, is a key risk to growth, especially in France and Italy, and any postponement in investment from potential trade tensions could further weaken growth.Now, in Japan, the key debate is whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates in January or March. After the last Bank of Japan meeting, Governor Ueda indicated a desire for greater confidence on the inflation outlook.Nonetheless, we've retained our call that the hike will be in January because we believe the Bank of Japan's regional Branch manager meeting will give sufficient insight about a strong wage trend. And in combination with the currency weakness that we've been watching, we think that's gonna be enough for the BOJ to hike this month. Alternatively, the BOJ might wait until the Rengo negotiation results come out in March to decide if a hike is appropriate. So far, the data remains supportive and Japanese style core CPI inflation has gone to 2.7 per cent in November. The market's going to focus on Deputy Governor Himino's speech on January 14th for clues on the timing – January or March.Finally, as the Central Bank of Mexico highlighted in their most recent rate cut decision, caution is the word as we enter the new year. As economists, we could not agree more. The year ahead is the most uncertain since the start of the pandemic. Politics and policy are inherently difficult to forecast. We fully expect to revise our forecasts more -- and more often than usual.Thanks for listening, and if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

David Zervos tells us why he thinks the Fed is too restrictive heading into the Trump administratio. A retail analyst brings us the four names he's most bullish heading into 2025--including one stock that's up 20% in the past month. Plus, the PMG CEO gives us his read on the health of commercial real estate, and why rents won't be falling any time soon. 

David Dietze, Managing Principal, Peapack Private shares his insights on the mixed picture that we're seeing ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, whether it's time to take money off the table, where the bitcoin game stands at the moment, as well as his shopping list for stocks this Christmas. Presented by: Ryan HuangProduced and Edited by: Yeo Kai Ting (ykaiting@sph.com.sg)Photo credits: pixabay & its talented community of contributorsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cem Karsan returns to discuss volatility trends into 2025. He notes recent slowdowns in the VIX won't stop an uptrend in volatility next year. He also makes the case for a disinflationary Trump presidency and points to China as the focal point. Cem notes a potential Chinese stock rally alongside his case. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Opinions are cheap so we're making it up in volume, with three takes on the future of the economy. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – gather to discuss looming inflation, the next 25 years of returns from the stock market and the challenges facing the so-called ‘department of government efficiency'. Also we go long Disney and long Turkey, the country.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

The IMF launched their World Economic Outlook document this week. It is a story of slow disinflation and slightly better growth prospects. They are also more optimistic about South Africa. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction.Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon.An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the government.China would love some over-heating.Do we want to drive cars that are potentially controlled from Beijing? Or is that just science fiction? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Later this morning, we’ll get the consumer price index for September. While inflation is way down from its peak in June 2022, consumers are frustrated with persistently high prices. We’ll hear more. Plus, how does a Nobel win in literature influence book sales? We’ll hear from the publishers of last year’s Nobel laureate, Norwegian playwright and author Jon Fosse, about how they dealt with a surge in demand.

US September consumer price inflation should show a slower rate of growth in the headline measure. Now that the Federal Reserve has finally started its easing cycle, this matters a little less to markets, but it is still important. Critically, middle-income inflation is running at about half the headline rate, and that gives the group an important degree of spending power.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin native, interactive podcast covering where Bitcoin and traditional finance meet on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Jesse Myers (Croesus), Michael Tanguma, and a special weekly guest host. Join us as we dive into what Bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, and propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset - in the digital age, it's the Last Trade that investors will ever need to make. Deep Knowledge Investing Use coupon code “Onramp25” for a 25% discount on your first subscription for DKI. It can be used for a monthly or an annual subscription. Annual is a better deal and a bigger discount. Coupon can be used once per person by an unlimited number of people. Expires 12/31/24. 0:00 - Welcoming back Gary Brode 1:34 - Analyzing the impact of last week's 50bps cut 4:47 - A message from Onramp 5:31 - Disinflation vs. deflation 11:23 - Consequences of debt & government spending 16:00 - You can't save in dollars or govt bonds 23:12 - Drivers of gold's resurgence 31:38 - Bitcoin's long-term trajectory 41:51 - Determining the right position size 50:52 - Death of the 60/40 portfolio 52:22 - Onramp Multi-Institution Custody 53:50 - Historical context around inflationary trends 1:03:16 - Zombie companies & economic realities 1:08:08 - The emotional impact of inflation on society 1:17:25 - China's economic challenges & stimulus 1:25:15 - The patriotic persuasion of war bonds 1:31:33 - Operation Choke Point 2.0 1:43:08 - Outro Schedule time with the link below if you would ever like to learn more about Onramp and please sign up for weekly Research and Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/ https://onrampbitcoin.com/category/onramp-media/

BUSINESS: Declining oil prices to boost disinflation | September 24, 2024Subscribe to The Manila Times Channel - https://tmt.ph/YTSubscribeVisit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tuneinSoundcloud: https://tmt.ph/soundcloud#TheManilaTimes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners' equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

First-time guest, Clem Chambers, provides insights into the current economic landscape, discussing the role of inflation, central banks' influence on the markets, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on global stability. He explains how governments manage inflation, the significance of gold reserves, and the evolving strategies to prevent market crashes. Chambers describes the rising risk of armageddon and why Central Banks hoard gold. #gold #FED #money ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver ------------

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Cut taxes on SS and Tips? President decides rates? China - inflation ticking up YEN volatility - NOT OVER PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Cut taxes on SS and Tips? - President decides rates? - China - inflation ticking up - YEN volatility - NOT OVER - Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP Market Update - CRISIS AVERTED - August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data - Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual - Same old  = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down - PPI out - changing direction Crisis Averted - Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on - Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10%  - intervention anyone? --- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here ---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments ---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up --- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$) - Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL Volume/Vacations - August - Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower - Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day - However  - big week of ECO data - - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here) Month to Date MTD IWN iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF -7.87% IWM iShs Russell 2000 ETF -7.10% IWO iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF -6.15% IWD iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF -2.45% IWB iShs Russell 1000 ETF -1.68% IWF iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF -1.00% Really? - Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. - The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday - Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now... ***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035 --- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS ---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of population Where do we stand on this.. - Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions? Switcher-rooo - Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024 - -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10% China - China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday. - Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June. - Is this good news or bad? PPI - July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4% -- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns - Tomorrow - CPI Another one... - Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand. - The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors,

The publication of US consumer price inflation forces economists to become used car salespeople and real estate fantasists. Part of the disinflationary trends come from used cars (which most US households will not buy this year) and the fictional owners' equivalent rent (which no one pays). Disinflation in these categories does not improve the spending power of most consumers.

Levels for the S&P 500 cash and futures to pay attention to 

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Disinflation traction today's tailwind for risk sentiment following cooler July PPI print. Macro expected to remain the key near-term directional impulse. Retail also traded well today despite some initially disappointing earnings takeaways.

In today's episode, Kip breaks down the exciting day of trading that saw our major indexes finish higher across the board, led by Tech and the Semis. Kip also covers the latest in the commodity market and what the VRA expects for the future of precious metals. Lastly, he dives into this morning's disinflationary PPI data. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Ted Oakley is a seasoned investment expert with over 40 years of experience helping high-net-worth individuals preserve their wealth. In this episode, we delve into the complexities of today's economic landscape, focusing on inflation, deflation, and the volatility in various markets. This conversation is packed with valuable advice for investors and business owners looking to navigate uncertain times and protect their financial future. Check out the show notes for more information! If you like this episode, here are more episodes we think you'll enjoy: David McAlvany - Building Wealth and Legacy in Inflationary Times - Ep# 489 Alastair Macdonald - Circumventing Economic Crises and the Pursuit of Wisdom - Ep# 493 Anna Kelley - Building Wealth and Teaching Financial Wisdom to the Next Generation - Ep# 475 P.S. Whenever you're ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you're closer than you think) : 1. Schedule a Call with My Team: If you'd like to replace the earned income you need from your practice with investment income in as little as 2-3 years, and you have at least 1M in available capital (can include equity or practice sale), then schedule a call with my team. If it looks like there is a mutual fit, you'll have the opportunity to attend one of our upcoming member events as a guest. 2. Become a Full-Cycle Investor: There are many self-proclaimed genius investors today who think everything they touch turns to gold. But they're about to learn the hard way what others have gained through “expensive” experience. I'm offering a report on how to become a full-cycle investor, who knows how to preserve and grow capital in Up markets and Down markets. Will you be prepared when the inevitable recession hits? Get your free report here. 3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard: Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard. 

The Bank of England's rate decision is due. Unlike some other central banks, the BoE has a tradition of dissent and disagreement. Arguably this produces better quality decisions (that is only true if the BoE agrees with my view and cuts rates). Disinflation forces argue that the bank should lower rates to prevent unnecessary real policy tightening, which would be a relief for the minority of households with a mortgage.

00:13-01:48 – Introduction 01:49-07:08 – Investment Journey 07:10-11:38 – Investment and Inflation 11:39-12:17 – Wealth building, debt elimination 12:19-16:20 – Federal debt and policy 16:21-20:10 – How to protect the value of our dollar 20:31- 29:28 – Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation 29:32 – 38:43 – Lessons from history regarding inflation, Personal Economy Go live life […]

Capital Investment Advisors Wealth Management Analyst Jeff Lloyd joins Wes on today's show to wade through the financial issues affecting people in today's environment. First, they zoom in on the summer's booming travel industry, including eye-opening Disney statistics. Then they take a bite of some tasty apple data, pour over today's inflation numbers vs. the past two years, and analyze how disinflation and lower overall inflation might mean the Fed is one step closer to lowering rates. Finally, they remind listeners that no matter where the market sits, history demonstrates perfection attempts are typically riskier than allowing patience and participation to produce results.

Die Juni-Verbraucherpreise lagen auf breiter Front unter den Zielen. FED-Chef Jerome Powell dürfte mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit spätestens im September die Zinswende einleiten. Disinflation ist grundsätzlich erfreulich, bedeutet aber auch Druck auf die Margen vieler Unternehmen. Pepsi meldet flaue Umsätze und senkt die Jahresaussichten. Delta Air wird die Ziele im dritten Quartal auch nicht erreichen. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • Facebook: http://fal.cn/SQfacebook • Twitter: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Carson's midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now!How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their midyear outlook, discussing everything from the economy and inflation to the Fed's position and stock market expectations. You'll hear about their insights into the labor market's strength, inflation trends, and the possibility of future Fed rate cuts.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The current state and future outlook of the U.S. economyRecent trends in inflation and the Federal Reserve's next movesStock market analysis and predictions for the second half of the yearPortfolio strategies and the role of alternatives in today's financial landscapeAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Midyear Outlook '24: Eyes on The PrizeLive Webinar Link - Tuesday, July 16 at 1pm CTConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slowsGlobal Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the May PCE data on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

In today's episode of "Capital Markets Quickie," host Endrit Cela discusses the market rally spurred by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on disinflation, strong job openings data, and Tesla's impressive vehicle deliveries. >>> Make sure to check out my newsletter "Cela's Weekly Insights": https://endritcela.com/newsletter/ >>> You can subscribe here to our YouTube Channel “MVP – Main Value Partners”: https://www.youtube.com/@MainValue >>> Visit out website for interesting articles on business, finance and much more: http://www.mainvalue.de >>> Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/endrit-cela/ >>> Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/endritcela_official/ Disclaimer for "Capital Markets Quickie" Podcast: The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are based on information available at the time of recording and reflect the personal perspectives of the host. They do not represent the viewpoints of any other projects, cooperations, or affiliations the host may be involved in. "Capital Markets Quickie" does not offer financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss disinflation is resuming as the consumer runs out of savings on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

Yesterday's US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and producer prices will not be fully experienced by consumers. The slowing fantasy price of owners' equivalent rent does not affect real world spending power. Seasonal adjustments deliberately distort reality, and so disinflation here does not change consumers' inflation experiences.

In today's episode, Tyler covers the market's strong month of May, and despite the weakness we saw this week, the markets finished on a strong note this Friday. Tyler will dive into this week's key data releases and the latest on this rotation to value names. Tune into today's podcast to get a recap of an exciting month of May for our markets.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week. 

Our Global Cross-Asset Strategist and Global Chief Economist discuss the state of asset markets at the midway point of 2024, and why the current backdrop suggests positive directions for several key markets.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: And yesterday, Serena, you and I discussed Morgan Stanley's global economic mid-year outlook. And today, I'm going to turn the tables on you, and we'll talk about asset markets.It's Tuesday, May 21st, at 10am in New York.Okay, so yesterday we talked about all sorts of different parts of the macro environment. Disinflation, inflation, central bank policy, growth. But when you think about all of that -- that macro backdrop -- what does it mean to you for markets across the world?Serena Tang: Right, I think the outlook laid out by your team of stable growth, disinflation, rate cuts. That is a great backdrop for risk assets, one of the reasons why we got overweight in global equities. Now, there will likely be low visibility and uncertainty beyond year end, and why we recommend investors should focus on the triple C's of cheap optionality, convexity, and carry.That very benign backdrop suggests more bullish possibilities. Your team has noted several times now that the patterns we're seeing now and what we expect have parallels to what happened in the mid 1990s -- when the Fed cut in small increments, US growth was sustained at high levels, and the labor market was strong. And now I'm not suggesting that this is 1990s and we should party like it. But just that the last time we found ourselves in this kind of benign macro environment, risk assets -- actually most markets did really well.Seth Carpenter: So, I will say the 1990s was a pretty good decade for me. However, you mentioned some uncertainty ahead, low visibility. We titled our macroeconomic outlook ‘Are we there yet?' Because I agree, we do feel like we're on a path to something pretty good, but we're not out of the woods yet. So, when you say there's some low visibility about where asset markets are going, maybe beyond year end, what do you mean by that?Serena Tang: I think there's less visibility going into 2025. And specifically, I'm talking about the US elections. When I think about the range of possible outcomes, all I can confidently say is that it's wide, which I think you can see reflected in our strategist's latest forecast. Most teams actually have relatively constructive forecast returns for their assets in the base case, but there's an unusually wide gap between their bull and bear cases for bond and equity markets.Seth Carpenter: Let me narrow it down a little bit because equity markets have actually performed pretty well during the first half of the year. So what do you think is going to happen specifically with equities going forward? How should we be thinking about equity markets per se?Serena Tang: Equities have rallied a lot, but we've actually gotten more bullish. I talked about the three Cs of cheap optionality, convexity, and carry earlier, and I think European and Japanese equities really tick these boxes. Both of these markets also have above average dividend yields, especially for a dollar-based FX hedge investor.Serena Tang: Where we think there might be some underperformance is really in EM equities, but it's a bit nuanced. Our China equity strategy team thinks that consensus mid-teens earnings growth expectation for this year will still likely to disappoint given the Chinese growth forecast that you talked about yesterday.Seth Carpenter: Alright, in that case. Let me flip over to fixed income. A lot of that is often driven by central banks. Around the world, you just mentioned EM equities may be struggling a little bit. A lot of EM central banks are either cutting a little bit ahead of the Fed, but being cautious, worrying about not getting too far ahead of the Fed. So, if that's what's going on with policy rates at the very front end of the curve, what's happening in fixed income more broadly?Serena Tang: We generally see government bond yields lower over the forecast horizon for two reasons. On your team's forecast of central banks cutting rates and also in the US, an optical rise in the unemployment rate, our macro strategy team forecasts for the 10 year U.S. Treasury yields to fall to just above 4 per cent by the end of this year. And because government bond yields will be coming down, we also expect yields for spread products like agency MBS, investment grade, etc. to also come down. But I think for these spread products, returns can be positive beyond that duration piece.Serena Tang: So, credit loves moderation, and I think the mild growth backdrop your team is forecasting for is exactly that. US fixed income more generally should also see renewed flows from Japanese investors as FX hedging costs come down over the next six months. All of this supports tighter than average spreads.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so we talked about equities, we talked about fixed income. Big asset class that we haven't talked about yet are commodities. How bullish are you going into the summer? What do you think is going to go on and can that bullish view that you guys have last even longer?Serena Tang: So for crude oil, our strategists see market tightness over the summer, which could drive Brent to about $90 per barrel. You have demand coming in stronger than expected, and of course OPEC has extended its production agreement.But we also don't really expect prices to hold over the medium term. Non-OPEC supply should meet most of the global demand growth later this year and into 2025, which sort of leaves very little room for OPEC to unwind production cuts. We expect Brent to revert back steadily to its long-term anchor, which is probably somewhere around $80 per barrel.Serena Tang: For copper, it's actually our metal strategist's top pick right now, and it's very much driven by, I think, tightening supply and demand balance. You've had significant mine supply disruptions, but also better than expected demand and new drivers such as -- we've talked about AI a lot, data centers and increasing participation.Serena Tang: And on gold, in our view, pricing is likely to remain pretty choppy as investors have to weigh inflation risk, incoming data, and the Fed path. But historically, that first rate cut tends to be a very positive catalyst for gold. And we see risks more skewed to our bull case at the moment.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so talked about equities, talked about fixed income, talked about commodities. These are global markets, and often when investors are looking around the world and thinking about what it means for them, currencies come into it, and everybody's always going to be looking at the dollar. So why don't you run us through the Morgan Stanley view on where the US dollar is going to go over the rest of this year, and maybe over the next 12 months.Serena Tang: The short answer is we see the dollar staying stronger for longer. Yes, we expect central banks to begin cutting this year. But the pace of cuts and ultimate destinations are likely to vary widely. Now another potential dollar tailwind is an increased risk premium being priced for the 2024 US elections. We think that investors may begin to price in material risks to dollar positive changes in US foreign and trade policy as the election approaches, which we assume will sort of begin ramping up in the third quarter.Seth Carpenter: All right, let's step back from the details. I want you to bring us home now. Give me some strategy. So where should people lean in, where should we be looking for the best returns and where do we need to be super cautious?Serena Tang: In our asset allocation recommendation, we recommend overweight in global equities, overweight in spread products, equal weight in commodities, and underweight in cash.We really like European and Japanese equities on the back of pretty strong earnings revision, attractive relative valuations, and good carry for a dollar based investor. We like spread products. Not so much that our strategists are not expecting duration to do well. We are still expecting yields to come down.Serena Tang: Where we are most cautious on, really, continues to be EM equities. From a very top down perspective, the outlook we have is constructive stable growth, continued disinflation, rate cuts. These make for a good environment for risk assets. But uncertainties beyond year end, that really argues for investors to look for assets which have those triple Cs, cheap optionality, convexity, and carry.And we think Japanese and European equities and spread products within fixed income take those boxes.Seth Carpenter: Alright, looking at the clock, I'm going to have to cut you off there. I could talk to you all day. Thank you for coming in and letting me turn the tables relative to yesterday when you were asking me all the questions.Serena Tang: Great speaking with you, Seth. And yes, I know we can go on forever.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And share this episode with a friend or a colleague today.

NVDIA & Fed speakers are in the spotlight this week; stock buyback are running higher than normal. The risk of recession; when will the Fed cut rates? Durable Goods are in deflation; Services are seeing higher inflation, tied to discretionary spending. Markets finish previous week at all time highs; when will they pull back? Wathcing for a bullish cross of the 20- and 50-DMA. AI can now lie and cheat; bad economic news is good news; the majority of earnings growth is coming from ten stocks; the impact of retail sales, debt ratios, and falling consumer spending. The connection between retail sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP; NFIB Inflation stats. Stocks are rallying in anticipation of Fed announcement, not stock buyback action. Power outages & Kolaches; Zoom and Palo Alto to report this week. Note the barriers to entry in considering a company's stock. SEG-1: NVDIA & Fed Speakers in Spotlight SEG-2: Teaching AI to Lie & Cheat; Bad News is Good News SEG-3: The Connection between Retail Sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP SEG-4: Power outage, Kolaches, & Barriers to Entry to Consider Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P9TN8Dzhd0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bad News Is Good News As Markets Set Record Highs" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Prepared for a Bullish Cross" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cvqdSYAkSI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 #BullishCross #MarketPullBack #InvestingAdvice ------- Our previous show is here: "How Long Will You Live?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTyaxINdMkY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #NVDIA #FedSpeakers #TeachingAItoCheat #RetailSales #Inflation #Disinflation #Markets #Money #Investing

NVDIA & Fed speakers are in the spotlight this week; stock buyback are running higher than normal. The risk of recession; when will the Fed cut rates? Durable Goods are in deflation; Services are seeing higher inflation, tied to discretionary spending. Markets finish previous week at all time highs; when will they pull back? Wathcing for a bullish cross of the 20- and 50-DMA. AI can now lie and cheat; bad economic news is good news; the majority of earnings growth is coming from ten stocks; the impact of retail sales, debt ratios, and falling consumer spending. The connection between retail sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP; NFIB Inflation stats. Stocks are rallying in anticipation of Fed announcement, not stock buyback action. Power outages & Kolaches; Zoom and Palo Alto to report this week. Note the barriers to entry in considering a company's stock. SEG-1: NVDIA & Fed Speakers in Spotlight SEG-2: Teaching AI to Lie & Cheat; Bad News is Good News SEG-3: The Connection between Retail Sales, CPI, PCE, & GDP SEG-4: Power outage, Kolaches, & Barriers to Entry to Consider Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P9TN8Dzhd0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bad News Is Good News As Markets Set Record Highs" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Prepared for a Bullish Cross" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cvqdSYAkSI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  #BullishCross #MarketPullBack #InvestingAdvice ------- Our previous show is here: "How Long Will You Live?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTyaxINdMkY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #NVDIA #FedSpeakers #TeachingAItoCheat #RetailSales #Inflation #Disinflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Do you remember just a few years ago when the media was nervous to see China become the world's leading economy? So many people used this supposed inevitability to take bets on what they market would do as a result. Paul is here to talk about China's most recent economic stumble and how disinflation is causing China to struggle to compete on the world stage. Things can change quickly. Paul reflects on a similar situation with Japan in the 80s and how the United States shifted to stay competitive. Later in the episode, Paul answers a couple of questions from a financial stewardship class he taught at Trevecca.  For more information about what we do or how we can help you, schedule a 15-minute call with us here: paulwinkler.com/call.

Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discusses disinflation and lower rates at the Hoover Institute's Monetary Policy Conference with Bloomberg's Mike McKee.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week Coach Pete D'Arruda has some thoughts on the potential benefits of a Roth IRA. Joe Murphy breaks down inflation, disinflation and deflation. Eric Kearney and Joseph Lanza discuss the importance of budgeting all the way through retirement. Learn more by visiting Financial Pizza or call 800-662-6808.  Visit Broadcasting Experts to see how they can help you have a media presence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the debt doomers circle, we'll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We'll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America's dollar, wages, and efficient energy output. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter's outsized effect [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop [09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production [13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets [15:09] - What's happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line [16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran's missile attack Links Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data) Apartment List National Rent Report (April) Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What's next? Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As inflation slowly subsides and optimism pervades financial markets, the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) warns of potential setbacks. Fabio Natalucci and Jason Wu head the GFSR team. In this podcast, they discuss risks associated with debt and the private credit market, struggling real estate sectors in China and the US, cybersecurity, and a host of other risks to the much anticipated soft landing. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4axvy8z

The UK British Retail Consortium's shop price index exhibited more disinflation than had been expected, with prices rising 1.3% y/y. This measure does include the discounting applied to loyalty card holders in the two-tier pricing system (consumer price inflation excludes this), and retailers have been keen to shore up customer loyalty with selective discounts as resentment about profit-led inflation has increased.

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the Federal Reserve's recent statement on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/everyday-economics7/support

The US personal consumer expenditure deflator remains in disinflation. Durable goods prices sank ever deeper into deflation. Market-based prices showed disinflation, as did services excluding financial service (financial service prices often follow market valuation). There was an intensely technical clarification about calculating owners' equivalent rent—price no real person pays or cares about, but which excites economists. The clarification makes it unlikely OER will add more to inflation this year.

Join us this week as we discuss global macro strategies for 2024. We discuss the 2024 election & Outlook - will the election have an impact on markets? geopolitical impact? World stability? Econ stability- factors for better or worse? We discuss Russia, China, mid east, oil gold, bonds, partisan change in 2024, US political strategy vs geo political strategy, trade war w China, globalization vs deglobalization. --> hypo-globalization. inflation price collapse? Disinflation 1980-2020, China slowdown, and more. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-macro-strategies-for-2024-matt-gertken Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Tim Baker | Metric Fin   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we review the latest economic data points and whether what we're seeing is contributing to the "immaculate disinflation" narrative. In CRE, we break down multifamily stories, transactions across the country for retail and hotel properties, and share office stories that touch CMBS. We also dig in to our office operating expense report. Tune in. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - Retail sales (8:51) - Multifamily stories (15:24) - Office property expenses (24:00) - Office headlines (27:55) - Lodging transactions (41:48) - Shoutouts (47:06) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

After very high inflation, the United States is finally feeling some relief in the form of "disinflation." But, why exactly has inflation slowed down?Three Planet Money hosts try to answer that question while competing to be the winner of our very own reporting challenge: Econ Battle Zone! It's economics journalism meets high-stakes reality TV competition! Will our contestants be able to impress our celebrity judges? How will they manage to incorporate their mystery ingredients? Who will take home the championship belt? Tune in for the inaugural episode of...Econ Battle Zone!Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, a think tank that promotes full employment in the American economy, and Preston Mui is also a senior economist at Employ America. Skanda and Preston join Macro Musings to talk about U.S. disinflation and the debates surrounding it, as well as what we can expect from Fed policy in 2024 and beyond, and finally, the Fed's framework review that is set to begin later this year.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Medium archive   Preston's Twitter: @PrestonMui Preston's Github profile   Skanda and Preston's Employ America bios   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Ten Thoughts on the Tribal “Transitory” Debate as We Enter 2024* by Skanda Amarnath   *Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024* by Preston Mui and Skanda Amarnath   Jerome Powell's Opening Remarks at Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy, a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conferences, hosted by the IMF

News about inflation made a lot of noise in the past two years, but the national CPI reports seem to indicate that inflation is starting to normalize within the Federal Reserve's target range. However, the national CPI basket of goods can have trouble representing inflation at a local level. Today, we're joined by Drew Hawkins of the Gulf States Newsroom as he goes to the supermarket in New Orleans where the national CPI may not be the best measure of inflation for folks living in the South.For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.