The World of Intelligence

While Artificial Intelligence AI is not a new phenomenon, its use in the gathering of intelligence and the amount of AI tools available are growing at pace. In part one of this podcast Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Jim Clover OBE, Varadius Ltd, to take a deeper look into the practical uses and implications of AI for the defence intelligence community. They explore its real-world effectiveness in gathering and analysing intelligence and also why human oversight is still critical to ensure the intelligence it is producing is both ethical and valuable.

Janes analysts James Trigg and Aparna Iyer join Sean Corbett and Kate Cox to discuss the strategic depths of Yemen's role in global security. They unpack the complex military, political, and regional dynamics shaping this pivotal Middle Eastern country and how Yemen's conflict influences international shipping lanes, serves as a battleground for proxy wars, and impacts the delicate balance of power in the region. James and Aparna also discuss the challenges and techniques they use to monitor such a fluid situation.

Five years after their first episode of the World of Intelligence podcast, Kate Cox, director of Janes RD&A Strategic Programmes, turns the table on Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to uncover the origins of the podcast and how it has evolved alongside the prominence of OSINT for intelligence analysis, and to offer a glimpse into the future of intelligence.

Faced with the starkest security environment for in decades, and against the backdrop of competing security priorities by the US as its strongest ally, the European Union (EU) has embarked on a plan to reverse its under-investment in defence and rebuild military capability through the Readiness 2030 initiative. Andrew MacDonald, head of Janes Defence Budgets, and Guy Anderson, head of defence markets and economics at Janes, join Sean Corbett to discuss the costs ahead and the outlook for success.

Following the release of a special report examining the recent record number of Chinese air-sea operations around Taiwan, Janes Senior Air Reporter Akhil Kadidal joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss what these escalations could mean for Taiwan. They also examine how the changing military capabilities of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) could signify a shift in its focus from training to combat orientation.

In this podcast culture expert Satgin Hamrah joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss why understanding culture is crucial in providing context to your intelligence. They explore how ingrained cultural nuances and historical ties influence global security trends, decisions, and behaviours, and why grasping the subtleties of culture is essential for effective engagement and decision making in the defence intelligence community.

In part two of our podcast, Jenny Town, Rachel Minyoung Lee, and Martin Williams from 38 North and Cristina Varriale from Janes join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to continue to unravel the implications of the new US administration on North Korea's place on the world stage and how its relationship with Russia might evolve in 2025 and beyond.

In the first part of this podcast, Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Jenny Town, Rachel Minyoung Lee, and Martin Williams from 38 North and Cristina Varriale from Janes to take a closer look at North Korea. With South Korea hitting headlines recently following President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment, the panel discusses North Korea's reaction to these events and what the new US administration means for US-North Korea relations.

In this podcast Janes analysts F Xavier Casals and Claire Chu share their expertise with Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They discuss the analytic tools and insight they use to provide a framework for indicator and warning analysis and why a non-military invasion may be more likely.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett reflect on a year packed with podcasts. In the 26 episodes published in 2024, alongside their panel of guests, they explored emerging and current threats, global security trends, and the impact of misinformation, disinformation and artificial intelligence on open-source intelligence and society.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Claire Fuchs, an analyst on the Janes Geoeconomic Influence and Threat Intelligence (GITI) team, to discuss why the nuances of language and linguistics are important to the interpretation of open-source intelligence (OSINT). As a speaker of nine languages Claire explores the need to approach language with caution and the limitations of artificial intelligence (AI) in interpreting and translating language.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models are becoming a mainstay in our daily lives, but how are these tools being used in delivering open-source intelligence? Janes Red Team Analyst Harry Lawson explores the role these tools have in intelligence tradecraft, uncovering the balance between cutting-edge technology and established analytical standards.

In the second part of this podcast Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD continue to explore the challenge of defining open-source intelligence (OSINT), why it should be considered a fundamental form of intelligence and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD join Harry and Sean to discuss the challenge of defining open-source intelligence alongside other intelligence disciplines and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center's Korea Program and 38 North and Cristina Varriale, Janes lead analyst - APAC join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore the closed environment of North Korea, its changing strategic allegiances and what the reported deployment of North Korea troops to Russia means for global stability.

With the situation in Israel and Lebanon continuing to evolve, Janes analysts Elliot Chapman and Suraj Ganesan return to join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to provide an update on the situation on the ground and the strategic implications of the conflict for regional security.

Janes analysts Elliot Chapman and Suraj Ganesan join Harry Kemsley to share their insight and analysis on the situation that has escalated in Israel and Lebanon. They explore the impact of the conflict on Israel and Hizbullah resources and the geopolitical and strategic implications emerging from the displacement of civilians.Elliot and Suraj also explore how open-source intelligence accelerates their understanding of the situation and the tradecraft they follow to verify and validate these sources.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett take a closer look on the increasing use and threat of misinformation and disinformation. They explore the differences between the two and why now more than ever it is important for analysts to use tradecraft to overcome these threats to ensure analysis is formed on truth and intelligence can be trusted.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by IBM master inventor Martin Keene to explore the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on open-source intelligence. The panel discusses how AI can support tradecraft, the future of AI-driven predictive analytics, and why humans are critical in evaluating AI analysis.

In the second part of this podcast Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are again joined by Janes analysts Dylan Lee Lehrke and James Rands to discuss the lessons learned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The panel continue their exploration of the changing tactics being deployed by Russia and Ukraine including the increasing use of unmanned warfare. They explore if their use is an indicator of a change in modern warfare and how the conflict may evolve over time.

In part one of this podcast Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Janes analysts Dylan Lee Lehrke and James Rands to discuss the lessons learned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The panel discusses the changing tactics deployed by Russia and Ukraine during the campaign and what this conflict has told us about the conduct of modern warfare.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined in this episode by Janes analysts Puja Banerjee, Sarbhanu Nath and Shivani Gayakwad to discuss the key events relating to the ongoing political instability in Bangladesh.Following weeks of protests and violence, the country is currently being run by an interim government following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina on 5th August. The panel discuss how this instability will impact the country and it's international neighbours and allies. They also share how open-source intelligence provides indicators for predictive assessments of the ongoing situation.

In this podcast Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Janes analysts Elliot Chapman, James Trigg, Anant Venkatesh and Suraj Ganesan in response to recent events and growing tensions in the Middle East and Levant.The panel provide context on the fast-moving situation in the region and discuss how open-source intelligence can support predictive intelligence to understand the prospect of serious escalations in the conflict.

In this episode Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Janes analysts Estefania Dominguez and Matthew Herman to provide situational understanding of the potential implications to state stability of the presidential elections being held on 28 July 2024.Estefania provides a contextual overview of why these elections are so significant and the panel discuss how the use of open-source intelligence helps to provide predictive analysis of situations in a relatively closed environment such at Venezuela.

In this podcast James Rands, senior Balkans and military capabilities analyst at Janes, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to provide a deeper understanding of the High North, Arctic region. With climate change likely to expose a northern sea route in the next decade or so and the potential abundance of natural resources, many countries will want to stake claim on this previously impenetrable region. Rands highlights the military capabilities required to operate in this challenging environment.They also discuss the important role open-source intelligence plays in providing early-warning indicators of activity and any escalation in tensions in what is likely to become a key global strategic area.

In this podcast Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by analysts from Janes Country Intelligence team, James Trigg, Maria Lampoudi and Lewis Smart to understand if the conditions may be right for another Arab Spring similar to that experienced in 2010.The team explores how OSINT can provide valuable early warning signs of potential escalations in tensions, the lessons learned since the previous Arab Spring and why applying tradecraft is so important to its intelligence analysis.

In this episode Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Phil Ritcheson Ph.D. to discuss why intelligence sharing is now more important than ever. They discuss the growing need for allied and partnership and how by using open sources facilitates more timely intelligence sharing. However, ensuring that the open sources can be trusted and are assured is critical to maintaining strategic advantage.

Ritu Gill, Intelligence Analyst, joins Harry and Sean to discuss the practical use of OSINT to support law enforcement. Ritu discusses it's use in supporting risk assessments and classified or closed sources of intelligence. She also discusses the tools used to make the most of the open-source intelligence available to analysts.

In this podcast Janes analysts discuss the Iranian attacks on Israel on the 14 April. They highlight the military systems used by Iran and the performance and impact of these on Israel. They also discuss the implications of this attack going forward, potential avenues of Israeli retaliation and considerations for further escalations in global tensions.

In this podcast Janes senior analyst James Trigg, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss Libya. Historic civil and political unrest have made it a country of interest globally for decades. Whilst other conflicts and world events have forced countries to switch their focus, Libya remains a country which requires attention particularly for countries in Southern Europe and the Middle East.They discuss how open-source analysis can help plug the gap in understanding when attention is focused elsewhere and how using Janes tradecraft with a long-term view, provides a more balanced understanding of the stability, impact and influence Libya has in the region and beyond.

In this podcast Janes analyst F Xavier Casals joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett for a deep dive into China Taiwan relations. Xavier explores how by using the political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, information (PMESII) framework we can gather structured analysis and more complete picture of China's future intent.

In this podcast Harry and Sean are joined by Dr Ingvild Bode to look at the application and challenges of AI use in weapons systems. Dr Ingvild Bode has spent the last year researching this subject for her most recent policy report, Loitering Munitions and Unpredictability: Autonomy in Weapon Systems and Challenges to Human Control, co-authored with Dr Tom Watts. During the podcast Harry, Sean and Dr Ingvild explore how AI is being used today to supplement or delegate not only motor skills but also cognitive skills. They also explore how AI plays a role in how decisions are made about specific aspects of the targeting process.

In this podcast we revisit the conflict in Israel -Gaza. We explain how using open source intelligence and applying Janes tradecraft allows us to track the situation, its actors, the equipment being used and the implications on neighbouring countries in the region and beyond.

The situation in Yemen is particularly complex. Even before the start of the attacks on shipping in November 2023 by Ansar Allah (commonly known as the Houthis), the country has been of interest to many. A large-scale humanitarian crisis has emerged following a decade of conflict across the country drawing in the Yemeni government, Ansar Allah, southern Yemeni secessionists, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen's Al-Qaeda affiliate, and a minor Islamic State faction. In this podcast James Trigg, Senior Research Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa Country Intelligence team at Janes joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore how open-source intelligence has allowed us to get a deeper understanding of the relatively closed environment of Yemen and the complex situation in the country.

In this new podcast episode Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Amil Khan, the founder and CEO of Valent Projects, to delve deep into the implications of misinformation and disinformation for open-source intelligence. They identify the difference between misinformation and disinformation and how we can overcome thesechallenges to support open-source intelligence.

Over the course of 2023 Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett hosted more than 20 podcasts exploring topics such as the implications of AI for OSINT, the need for empathy indecision making, and tradecraft in open-source intelligence. Janes analysts also discussed how OSINT has supported Janes analysis of new and emerging situations such as that in Sudan, Haiti, and Israel. In this episode Harry and Sean look back on the key themes and what they learnt from the discussions with their guests in 2023.

Claire Chu, Janes senior China analyst joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss how China's economic activity projects influence globally and what she learnt as part of the recent US Congressional staff delegation to China.

Janes analysts discuss the ongoing situation in Israel/Gaza and discuss how OSINT can help us look at events in conflict zones, including analysis of what happened at the Al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza.

In this podcast Janes analysts Lewis Smart and Elliot Chapman discuss with Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett how they have supported Janes' timely analysis and insight on the evolving situation in Israel and Gaza and how this supports the intelligence gathering required by intelligence and defence organisations.

Robert Ashley Jr. former director of the DIA joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss the use of open-source intelligence in the defence intelligence enterprise and the opportunities OSINT provides to intelligence communities.

Robert Ashley Jr. former director of the DIA joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss the use of open-source intelligence in the defence intelligence enterprise and the opportunities OSINT provides to intelligence communities.

Dr Joana Cook and Dr Shiraz Maher authors of 'The Rule is for None but Allah: Islamist Approaches to Governance' join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss the role that OSINT has to play in understanding violent extremist organisations and the challenges in doing so.

In this episode Janes analysts Matthew Henman and Louis Galvin discuss how open source intelligence can provide good indicators and warnings for predictive intelligence. They also discuss how they use Janes open source data to produce a broad intelligence picture of an evolving situation such as that in Haiti.

In the second part of this podcast Robert Cardillo, President, Cardillo Group and previous Director of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and ex-deputy Director of the DIA, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to continue the discussion of the importance of geospatial intelligence to enhance our use and understanding of OSINT in a classified environment and the use of AI.

Robert Cardillo, President, Cardillo Group and previous Director of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and Deputy Director of the DIA, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss the importance of geospatial intelligence to enhance our use and understanding of OSINT.

Keith Dear, Managing Director of Fujitsu's Centre for Cognitive and Advanced Technologies, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss the use and limitations of AI in support of OSINT. With AI capabilities evolving at an ever increasing speed, they explore what this means for decision makers and analysts and how human and AI can work together.

Janes expert analysts Maria Lampoudi and Heather Nicell join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbet to discuss how open source intelligence has helped us to understand the situation in the Sudan before it started, what is happening now and the impact on the country in the future.

Randy Nixon, Director, Open Source Enterprise, CIA and long time user ofJanes joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to discuss thepower and utility of open source intelligence in the intelligence community,why the people in these organisations are so important and how this community canoptimise OSINT in their organisations.

In this episode we look at tradecraft in Open Source Intelligence with Neil Wiley, former Chair of the National IntelligenceCouncil and former Director for Analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency

In this episode we take a more practical look at open source intelligence and its role in understanding the current situation in Iran as it sits at the crossroads of a range of geopolitical choices, the result of which will play a large role in determining the course of the country's internal dynamics, as well as its external relations with other states.Janes Country Intelligence customers can also access our supporting special report on Iran at Customer.Janes.com