Podcast by Ball Boyz
Well, we've done it again. Nailed the rare double outright with Opelka and Garin. If there was a week to just mail it in, this might be it with some stupid low numbers on big name favorites. But, there's no rest for the wicked and we do our best to try to find some value where others might not see it. Quarter prices get some shine this week as well as a nicely priced clay court flyer.
Andy going rogue pays off this week, but will surely cost him in the long run now that he has a little confidence to go against Kelly. We find common ground in Florida but have some differences of opinion in South America. Please enjoy this one, as it took like 2.5 hours to record thanks to some Canadian technology SNAFUs. Good luck to all this week!
We revisit the best week in our podcast's history with more tennis across the globe. Andy learns about sea level and Kelly takes some wild shots in the dark on the golden swing. Outrights are locked in for the week and we even have some hot tips for NY Open totals. Enjoy.
After two weeks, we're refreshed and back at it, ready to break down our favorite kind of tourney: the 250. Kelly explains a tried and true method of handicapping Montpellier and then immediately throws it out the window. We dig into the mess that is Pune, and start out the clay season with a surprise pick down in South America.
After two weeks of trash (and at least one outright hit), we're finally getting a big'un. The Aussie kicks off the Slams for the year and Kelly getting a 300/1 deep a couple years back may be his undoing, because he's going BUCKWILD again with some long shots! Angles, thoughts, outrights, quarter prices, math, not knowing who plays who in the Auckland semis, it's all here. Cheers to a profitable fortnight down under!
Coming off a big win, we break down an old favorite in Aukland along with a newcomer in Adelaide as we creep up on Melbourne. Kelly goes through his philosophy on pre-draw AO outrights and we determine how much it would cost to get a direct flight from Qatar to Australia. Outright picks are found along with a smattering of geography and weather.
We're back and better than ever. The took our Pune and left us out in the desert of Qatar with a standalone 250 but obviously that won't stop us. We'll continue to ignore the ATP cup and breakdown a tournament like only we can: Kelly on the picks, Andy on the Geography/Sponsors. Outrights are found and Kelly gives out his 2020 "pick to click". Happy Tennis New Year.
Hey! It's almost real tennis! First to four, 3-3 TBs and no AD fun for all. I help facilitate Kelly's crippling gambling addiction by giving him a platform to talk about it though! We find a value play along with some gross chalk that's probably still worth playing. Enjoy the young guns this week!
We come in riding high off the ABSOLUTE NO DOUBTER of Fed to win Basel! The Bercy field is loaded, but there can be a mixed bag of motivation levels, so we sift through the draw and find some cute ticklers and a great quarter price that's worth a few shekels. Hoping to close the regular season off strong. Thanks for partying with us all year!
We're back for more punishment, but this time we've got a secret weapon with a 9 time tourney champion at a pretty cute price. Kelly runs down both indoor 500s on his way out the door to the indoor waterpark, and does a damn fine job considering the circumstances. Outright picks, qualifier blind bets and other wisdom is doled out.
We marvel in the majesty that is the Meddy-bear as we dive into a trio of indoor 250s spread across Europe. Kelly tries unsuccessfully to keep Andy from betting some chalk and we try to figure out the motivation that would lead someone to travel to Sweden in October. Kelly gives the world's worst shout-out while watching playoff baseball and trying to make it through a Canadian holiday. We also pick some winners.
Once again, we attempt to record whilst Kelly watches a match that he has multiple bets on (Thiem in 3 sets though!!!). Kelly goes on some long tangents about several players but makes some good points, including some possible 2020 Grand Slam futures you may want to place now. Outrights, thoughts, picks, fades, avoids and everything else are given out, AND there's only one tournament this week, so Kelly can't mix it up with another.
Overnight tennis continues as we delve into a couple of outdoor (one is indoor for now) 500s in Beijing and Tokyo. Fun facts! Outrights! Isner H2H breakdowns! Geography! This episode has it all! Come for the hot tennis tips, stay for Kelly convincing himself that De Minaur is going to lose the Zhuhai final.
We head to the People's Republic of China for a double dose of outdoor hardcourt tennis! We discuss how to attack the draws considering the travel from the Laver Cup and briefly touch on Mikhail Youzhny's military service. As far as outrights go, Kelly nails a couple of absolute gems as he tries to redeem himself from last week (where Andy's outright won)
Back from the Davis Cup break and better than ever! Kelly eagerly dives into some poorly attended 250s in France and Russia as we prep for the Asian Swing. As always, we find some value on outrights and talk about the overall shape of the draw. Kelly goes on record and fully professes his love for Richard Gasquet (but not as an outright this week.)
It's been quite the journey, but we've finally arrived at the 4th slam and the point at which Andy stops paying attention to tennis for the year. Andy's excited for a slam that doesn't mess with his sleep schedule and Kelly is very pumped for a future he put in months ago. Both of our dogs make impromptu appearances while we break down the 128 men that will travel to Flushing Meadows to vie for the title! Loads of knowledge nuggets are dispensed and outright bets are placed!
We head to Wake Forest University to get in our last bit of tennis before the final slam of the season. A bit of time is spent marveling at the "Summer of Med" and get into the ATP finals race a bit. We find a consensus value play in the top half while Kelly's opinions on the third quarter force me to go rogue and take an opposing outright. The 2017 Savannah Challenger makes another appearance for all the right reasons.
Now that you're finally coming down from the excitement of the finals in Toronto in Montreal, it's time to dive into a big bowl of Cincinnati. Kelly's outrights gain some unanticipated value during recording, and we tell the books about a market they aren't offering but should be! *NOTE* we recorded this Sunday evening and got the Nadal news part way through the podcast, I thought we adjusted nicely.
Kelly finally returns to form, and we see some measure of success! Lockdown, leadpipe consensus play Diego Schwartzman takes care of business and has us brimming with confidence heading into the Canadian Open. Kelly talks about the randomness in players retirements and we also tell you who has a chance to dethrone Rafa.
Kelly is BACK! Did we purposely pick bad outrights last week so he wouldn't feel bad? There's really no way to tell! Either way, @BigTenWatto returns from his one-week hiatus to help break down this three tourney slate. We pick some outrights (some of which aren't even Canadian), and explain why the Washington bracket looks so damn big. As usual, things get off track a bit and we briefly discuss doubles and Latvian names. Good luck and enjoy!
Kelly takes the week because he scheduled his wedding during the tennis season, but we don't let his poor planning get in the way! Ball Boyz soldiers on! The venerable Whale Capper steps in to talk tennis as we break down another week in the doldrums of July tennis. Outrights are still given, geography is still discussed, and we cash an outright from last week during the recording so not much has changed.
We transition from a 5 set battle between two of the all time greats into breaking down possible Leo Mayer finals runs. It's July, and that means three tourneys per week until further notice. We give out our outrights (with some disagreements in Europe) and even a few single match bets for early on. We'll also tell you not IF you should bet on Isner to win Newport, but how big of a reverse mortgage you'll need to lump onto his outright number this week.
An instant classic recorded live from the wilderness of North Ontario! Despite Andy's best efforts, Kelly is bound and determined to focus in on the Canadians in this years draw. We break down the long awaited FAA/Popsicle matchup along with Raonic's outright chances. Official outrights are chosen as well as a couple of props and some nice angles on some 1st round totals. Come for the Strawberries, stay for the winners.
We attempt to come up with some thoughts and outrights for the two lead-up 250s while Kelly watches the Fed/Goffin match. Unbeknownst to us while recording, Andy CASHES his Federer Halle ticket and looks to stay hot as he once again goes rogue and directly opposes his Ball Boyz co-host! As always, lots of good tennis/geography information from the Walking Encyclopedia that is @BigTenWatto.
Grass season soldiers on and we try to pick some outrights that do better than last week (shouldn't be hard). We take a look at an absolutely stacked field in London, and also see who Fed's likely opponents will be in Germany. As he does about every 6 weeks or so, Kelly forgets how many times he's been badly burnt and makes his case for his favorite prodigal son. Picks for both 500's, some insights for early match-ups and a bonus outright is coaxed out by Andy's goading LIVE as we record!
Anniversary Episode: We've been doing this for a damn year now! You're Welcome. Kelly prattles on about hitting yet another pre-tourney future bet (yawn)and then goes full-blown homer and gives some love to a fellow Canadian (but maybe not the one you'd think.) We also dig into why the NextGenners are bound and determined to burn out themselves out, and give you some value picks for the pair of 250s this week as we make our way towards the third Slam.
As the excitement of Geneva and Lyon wind down, we turn our eyes to the City of Lights as we strap in for a fortnight of stressing out over 5th sets and questionable ball marks. Kelly makes the case for both the ClayGOAT and the field, while Andy explains how he came to have a Borna Coric outright from weeks ago. We find some value picks and Kelly goes back to the German well one more time. Bonus: Kelly hands out an "ULTRA DOG" with a 500/1 price!
Andy extols the virtues of ATP 250s as we take a long hard look at the Geneva and Lyon draws. An impromptu game of "Last American Standing" leaves us depressed about the state of Men's tennis in the U.S. As usual, Kelly's ADHD kicks in for some live betting on matches that will be looong over before you listen to this. We absolutely nail some outrights as we try to pad that bankroll for the long fortnight that's just over the horizon.
We take some time out from our Mother's Day festivities to talk about the second clay Masters 1000 in so many weeks. Kelly calls for the immediate arrest of Billy Jean King for starting the WTA while Andy again makes his case that our Greek friend Stefanos may be too dumb to know he should lose sometimes. We navigate the "field that is filled with landmines" that is this draw, and pick a couple outrights we hope to see come through next weekend.
The Road to Rolland Garros stops off in Spain, as a big month of tennis kicks off. Kelly bemoans Sunday starts, but then also spending a good chunk of time discussing/live betting the Kyrgios/Struff match. With some very low prices for the favs, we try to go against the grain as best we can and each end up with a pair of value outrights. Other topics include: Age of consent in Spain, underhand serves & Grigor's gorgeous face.
We come back off an unplanned Easter break with guns ablazin'. Kelly takes you behind the curtain a bit and explains the hold/break numbers in the spreadsheets you skim past in his articles. We try to find some value outside of Sascha on "his fucking court" and explain why putting any money on Fognini is terrifying. Outrights are picked and knowledge is imparted.
We take advantage of the Sunday morning rain delay to get back into the swing of things, as the clay season hits mainland Europe. Kelly drops great tips like "hope that Rafa gets injured" and "maybe Nole doesn't really care until the French". Otherwise it's 30 minutes of rationalizing which 2nd tier players can make a run to the semis. Bonus: hot tip for a nice underdog in Monday's action given out!
I try to cheer Kelly up as we work through a day long rain delay at the brand new facilities at the Hard Rock in Miami. We figure out where it all went wrong for Roger last week while at the same time telling you how to bet against him in outrights. We can not be held liable for betting advice on this one since qualifiers are not done and there could be unforeseen landmines.
Just the one tourney this week but, it's a doozy. We have our weekly therapy session centered around Nick Kyrgios and decide if he's a bigger threat to Nole or our bankroll. We also pick a few outrights that have zero shot at winning this thing but, might make you some money if you can figure out how to DM Kelly for hedging advice. Cheers from California!
Our dreams of cashing an outright every single week of the year come crashing down as we get a triple helping of humble pie. Nevertheless, we're putting it in the rear view and we're tackling three tournaments for what seems like the 9th straight week. Kelly makes sure we get back on track by betting the entire field on clay, including a RARE 40-1 *Ball Boyz Double-Consensus*
We ride the fire into another week! Indoor/Outdoor Hards and South American Clay are discussed again. Kelly departs from the Jarry-train and gets on a much more dubious mode of transportation in Rio. We go head to head with our Americans of choice in Florida and we try to make some sense of the depleted draw in France.
We get down and dirty into the 2nd leg of the Golden Swing, a Euro stop in the Netherlands and the tournament most likely to be moved to a new city. Kelly channels his inner Bernie Sanders and rants about the disappearance of the middle class of tennis outright prices, while Andy tries to make a case for an outright who pulled out of the tournament while we were recording.
Kelly and Andy dive face-first into the triple-dipper of 250's. Kelly bets every single player in the field in all three tournaments to keep his outright streak alive as we break down all three draws. Topics include: British dominance on Clay, Fabio's South American Nihilism, and the last time a Frenchman won a slam.
We do a quick rundown of the quarterfinals and beyond and explain why you future tickets are pretty much dicked unless you have one of the two big favs. Side note: Kelly recorded this while driving from work to pick up his kids, so if he's wrong about anything he has a built in excuse.
SUPER POD! We bring in not one, not two, but three guests as the Net Worth guys help us break down the first slam of the year in a crossover episode. Kyrgios retirement watch continues and Kelly explains in detail how he'd like to see Nadal's career end via injury this week. Outrights! Quarter Bets! First round thoughts! It's all here!
We start to ramp things up as we inch closer to Melbourne! We make a solid attempt at doing math while discussing several markets concerning John Isner, and try to figure out who has a shot to win the warm up events down under. As always, outrights are chosen and Kelly apologizes for underestimating Ivo/Kando on hardcourts.
SEASON TWO! Ball Boyz: The Revenge. Kelly and Andy dive right into the fresh season with some solid breakdowns of the 2 bad tournaments and the 1 good one. Kelly goes over his new years resolutions of tennis betting and we discuss Nick Kyrgios' pending retirement from tennis. Outrights are chosen and we even find some value on some early matches.
We travel to beautiful Milan, Italy for the ADHD finals! While it's only an eight man field, we still manage to find some possible value on outrights and ways to approach the tournament this week. Kelly gloats insufferably about his 33/1 Pocket Kings future cashing last week.
Another indoor hardcourt in Europe as we preview the last real tournament of the season. Djoker is a huge favorite, but we find a few live dogs to back if that's your thing.
In the penultimate week of the final push through Europe, the boys break down a duo of 500's in the Alps. We find some outrights, talk about Roger's injury and Kelly's children join in for a bit. Good fun is had by all.
We get deep into the indoor 250's in Europe while watching Monday Night Football. Kelly fails to back Chung, Medvedev or Rublev for the first time in 6 months. Outrights are picked, including a sexy 40/1 longshot.
We finally dive into Shanghai and try nearly fruitlessly to make strong cases for people not named Roger or Novak. Kelly gives out some strong angles on how to bet the fast courts here at the final stop on the Asian Swing.
We stay in the Far East and breakdown a couple of 500's as we inch closer to Shanghai! Kelly has some sneaky long shots to go along with some chalk plays in both tournaments and we FINALLY learn about the origins of the grunting clip that's played at the open.
The guys wake up reaaaaal early and talk about a couple 250's way out East. We find some angles & outrights and try to figure out if anyone is motivated to win these tournaments. SPOILER: Kelly somehow manages to not back Chung.
The guys are back at it, and Kelly still can't believe what Richard Gasquet did to his hair! We preview the two indoor 250's in Europe this week and even find an outright or two in amongst the chalkiness. Come for the tennis, stay for Andy watching MNF while we record.
Last Slam of the year! We get into the weeds on Judy Murray, Marco Cecchinato, and even pick some outrights to run with for the next two weeks. Kelly reveals his secret fanboy crush and Andy continues to bet on Isner.