Global Markets Daily

Combing through news flow on 1 April is a rather risky endeavor, let me tell you! That said, fortunately, the two big pieces of news that I will be discussing today were announced yesterday! The first is the announcement by the US that it will be releasing one million barrels of oil per day over the next six months in an effort to ease concerns over global oil supply and reduce pressure on oil prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

And so the daily ups and downs continue. Talks between Ukranian and Russian officials over a ceasefire seem to have stalled. They are set to resume tomorrow, but the continued lack of progress wil add to uncertainty in global asset markets. In an attempt to bring some calm to the oil market, it seems the US is considering releasing a million barrels of oil a day for a couple of months.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talks for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia begin today. Ukraine is hoping, at the very least, for an improvement in the humanitarian situation, but no doubt a cease-fire and commitment to peace talks would be preferable.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Russia-Ukraine war remains the central focus for markets, speculation about the next moves from Russia, and sideline participation in various forms by other countries remains rife. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It is (only) a month since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine – I say only because it feels like it has been so much longer. In a month commodity prices have gone wild, concerns over rising inflation have only intensified and the geopolitical landscape has gone from posturing to positioning. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Joe Biden will be in Europe from today to meet with the US' NATO partners, attend a European Council meeting and participate in a G7 Summit. These meetings will centre on the war in Ukraine.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We return from a long weekend to more of the same – the war in Ukraine rages on. Oil prices, after dipping briefly to below US$100/bbl last week, have rocketed to over US$110/bbl today with Brent crude approaching the US$120/bbl level and WTI crude US$115/bbl. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk is cheap – and to remind politicians and policymakers markets have sent a clear signal this morning. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lift-off, both for the federal funds rate and Comair. Very much as expected, the Federal Open Markets Committee raised the federal fund rate by 25bp at its March meeting.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine are set to resume today, but it seems the views of officials from both sides are already quite different, with Ukraine seeing space for compromise and Russia suggesting Ukraine isn't “serious” about finding a resolution to the war. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A collective sigh of relief may be apparent globally with news that the price of WTI crude has fallen below USW$100/bbl and Brent crude oil is flirting with this level. Oil prices are still significantly higher than their year's opening level, but have equally come off the highs seen over the past few weeks.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Russia-Ukraine war remains the central focus of global news today with the US having announced that Russia has approached China for support – in the form of military equipment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The weekend brings with it a chance for a break, but in these uncertain times, it also adds a certain level of anxiety, as the world we face at the start of the new week could be vastly different to the world we leave at the end of the week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It never rains, but it pours. This proverb seems so incredibly appropriate in a very wet Johannesburg today. At least the rain up here is actually something good – it may not seem it here in SA's summer rainfall region this season, but this is a water-scarce country, so rain means one less year of drought in my mind. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tensions continue to escalate both on the ground in Ukraine and also in terms of economic responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The US has moved a step closer to passing legislation to ban oil imports from Russia, while EU countries are still debating whether to follow this course of action.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Ukraine continues to dominate news, commodity prices and asset markets. The oil price, already a sharp mover this year as we have discussed in this forum, has shot up even further, with the price of Brent crude oil almost hitting US$140/bbl this morning in response to news that the US is discussing sanctions on Russian oil and energy exports with its allies – and even contemplating imposing these alone if it doesn't get consensus.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It is crazy to think that it has only been nine days since the geopolitical tension in eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia turned into a war. It feels like it has been going on for so much longer.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jerome Powell's appearance before the US Congress has brought, at the very least, a moment of calm to markets. His preference for a 25bp hike at the March meeting over a 50bp hike has brought a bit of certainty during an incredibly uncertain time.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Ukraine remains the central focus in the world today. Despite the commitment by the US and its allies to collectively release 60 million barrels of oil to try and ease concerns over oil supply shortages See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We start the week off safe in the knowledge that markets are going to hop from headline to headline. The conflict in Ukraine continues to intensify and will remain the primary driver of market movements this week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Focus remains squarely on Ukraine today. The conflict continues to intensify and it seems that Russia is making a concerted effort to capture Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It has happened, Russia has pulled the figurative trigger by launching what it calls a demilitirisation operation in Ukraine this morning. Martial law has now been declared in Ukraine with its foreign minister labelling the incursion an all-out invasion. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The saying that it never rains but pours feels appropriate today. Ironically the weather forecast in what has been a very wet Johannesburg is dry despite looming clouds following warm summer days. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Putin recognised two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine overnight, escalating geopolitical tensions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Which will come first – the talks between Russia and the US or a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Only time will tell.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The week continues with the themes not changing all that much. Markets continue to eye the situation around Ukraine with nervousness, and speculate over monetary policy moves, particularly by the Federal Reserve. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world remains on tenterhooks over the tension around Ukraine. The latest is that the US still believes a diplomatic solution is possible, but have also cautioned that the Russian army remains positioned to invade Ukraine.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sarcastic remarks by the Ukrainian president sent markets tumbling, with US markets closing weaker yesterday despite recovering from the initial rout. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Posturing and speculation over the potential of Ukraine by Russia has intensified. The US has warned that Russia will be able to launch an assault on Ukraine this week, but don't seem certain it will happen. Thus trading this week begins with sentiment turning to risk-off. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US CPI hit 7.5% y/y in January, the highest it has printed since February 1982 – almost a full 40-year gap. The print was also higher than expected, resulting in a flurry of activity, with the generic 10-year US bond yield breaching the 2% level and US equities seeing a fairly sharp sell-off after the release. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week's eventful day has arrived, and yet there is still a time to wait before the action begins! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A pause at the midpoint of the week. Having seen significant volatility for the first part of this week, equity markets are trading broadly in the green. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Chinese market catch-up is over and today we see equity markets see-sawing through their trading sessions.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week ended on an unexpected high, 476,000 to be exact. This is the number of jobs added in the US in January, substantially higher than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 125, 000 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mirroring the emotions of the athletes will no doubt be global markets, with extreme highs and lows – this can be best illustrated in the massive losses experienced by Meta on markets earlier this week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

OPEC+'s production update did not surprise with an increase of 400,000 barrels per day announced. The concern though lies with the ability of some OPEC+ members to meet these supply targets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

South Africa hasn't had a good start to February, as discussed yesterday, the price of fuel went up today and to add to consumer and economic woes, load-shedding will be implemented from 11:00 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Near-term inflationary pressures remain high globally, and South Africa is not immune to this as evidenced by the announcement yesterday from the Department of Energy that the prices of petrol and diesel will rise on Wednesday.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Event and data filled week ahead of us including monetary policy announcements by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and ECB. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As is typical for January, the first two weeks felt calm and quiet and then last week activity ramped up. But this week was when we really hit our stride for the year – with the FOMC delivering its first decision for 2022, followed by the SARB's first decision and an advance estimate of 4Q21 GDP for the US, among many other releases and events.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The FOMC delivered no major surprise yesterday. Rates were kept on hold and the Fed's asset purchase programme is being slowed further and will end in March. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is still pretty much a full working day ahead of use before the Fed's first decision for the year is announced, but we are counting down hours now, not days. The statement and subsequent press meeting will be closely scrutinsed. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As highlighted yesterday volatility is driving market movements today. Tensions over the possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia and ancipation of the Fed's January decision are the key events driving volatility. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets to reflect the waiting game that will be undertaken at the start of the week, in anticipation of the Fed's first policy announcement for 2022. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Congratulations to the class of 2021! Despite incredibly challenging circumstances over the past two years, the pass rate for the national senior certificate (NSC) improved to 76.4%. This remains below the 2019 pass rate of 81.3% though, granted the world in 2019 was vastly different to the world today. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Joe Biden held his first press conference for 2022 yesterday, marking his one year in office. Headlines have been dominated by his statements on Russia's seemingly imminent invasion of Ukraine with it being clear that not all responses by the NATO allies have been agreed to as yet, however a reaction does at least seem to be guaranteed. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So many of the single numbers that we monitor are the sum of a number of moving parts. Seasonal patterns, be they related to weather or regular events (public holidays and school holidays for example) allow economists to give some insight into where measures of economic activity are going.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US markets will reopen today after a long weekend and it would seem that dollar strength is dominating currency movements. This strength seems to be driven by expectations that inflation will remain strong during 2022 and push the FOMC to raise rates.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The festive season is officially over with coastal schools reopening later this week – and so for those who have not already, we need to resume (or is it remember?) our normal routines and for those with new year's resolutions, design our new normal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rapid spread of the omicron variant is prompting the return of restrictions in some countries in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus, but in others it is triggering a change in policy.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The omicron variant is driving market sentiment and, as it spreads around the world, investors and policymakers are re-assessing the potential impact it might have on economic activity. Asian stocks continue to fall, with the MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7%, led by the Hang Seng Index down 1.3%.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.