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A walk through of the book of James - chapter 1:8 -17 Apologetics, Debate, Bible Discussions, Evangelism, and much more Our Ministries Website - To know more on how to be saved, what are the requirements and such, please see our playlist on the Gospel and Eternal Security (assurance of salvation) -
This week we'll look at a short portion of James' letter that has a lot to say. James speaks ofza God as the Father of lights, who showers us with every good and perfect gift from above, starting with our life itself, brought forth by the very will of God. So we'll consider God's gifts to us in light of his master plan, and how those gifts help us to grow toward maturity. Indeed, in the midst of all that seems chaotic around us, God is moving us forward to prepare us for a new creation!
Taitem, L'Rainique, James, Chris, and Brent discuss the week in Herd racing, why everyone on the podcast should really move to California, Chris sprinting at 3.2 w/kg, Brent's favorite KQOM, the return of the SHEries, and a special surprise coming next Wednesday!
This episode is also available as a blog post: http://quiteaquote.in/2020/08/03/p-d-james-every-bird-his-worm/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/quiteaquote/message
James 1:14-15 New Testament Scholar writes (in his Pillar Commentary on the epistle of James): "Every trial, every external difficulty, carries with it a temptation, an inner enticement to sin. God may bring, or allow, trials; but He is not, James insists, the author of temptation (v. 13). Enticement to sin comes from our own sinful natures, not from God (vv. 14-15)." This morning's teaching examines the to ROOT of our problem with temptation and sin -- namely, our own desires!
Phil’s guest on this episode of the IT Career Energizer podcast is James Quick. Founder of Learn Build Teach. He is a self-taught Web Developer who is addicted to learning and has a passion for teaching. He speaks at community events, participates in Hackathons and builds continuously. In this episode, Phil and James discuss the importance of investing in yourself and talk about effective ways to do this. They also discuss the need to regularly check progress with your manager. As well as how to sail through the appraisal process and get properly rewarded for your work. James shares how he works to effect change and engages with the IT community to help others and ensure his skill stay sharp and relevant. KEY TAKEAWAYS: (2.45) TOP CAREER TIP Invest in yourself. James had a great mentor who taught him to set aside some money each year to spend exclusively on himself. You can use that cash to buy hardware, get extra training or travel to meetups. Basically, anything you need to further your career. In the podcast, James shares some great examples of how he has invested in himself monetarily. (4.52) WORST CAREER MOMENT One year, while working as a Microsoft evangelist, he got a really low bonus. Yet when he questioned why that was, he was told he was doing a decent job and was not given any areas to improve on. For James, this was both frustrating and disappointing. Missing out monetarily felt bad, but not knowing where he was supposedly failing and how to improve was worse. It was very frustrating. James goes on to explain how he now works to ensure that negative experience is never repeated. (7.34) CAREER HIGHLIGHT When James joined FedEx he was worried that his programming skills were too rusty. Yet, he was able to build the entire front end of the 2nd application he worked on basically by himself. That achievement demonstrated to him that he was still a good developer. Getting promoted to an architect at FedEx, a year ago was also a highlight. (9.37) THE FUTURE OF CAREERS IN I.T The fact that there is always something new to learn is exciting. As is the fact there are so many different ways to contribute. A positive situation James cannot see changing any time soon. (11.14) THE REVEAL What first attracted you to a career in I.T.? – For some reason, when he was asked which major to take he said computer science. So, his journey into I.T. was a happy accident. What’s the best career advice you received? – His dad encouraged him to always do the right thing for him, especially careerwise. What’s the worst career advice you received? – Accept things the way they are. If things are not being done properly, always work to change that. What would you do if you started your career now? – He would get as much hands-on experience as possible, while still studying. James shares several practical ways to do this in the podcast. What are your current career objectives? – Having more of an impact at FedEx and broadening his brand. What’s your number one non-technical skill? – Speaking Spanish and being outgoing has opened up several opportunities for him. How do you keep your own career energized? – James finds that creating new stuff and investing in the IT community re-energizes him. What do you do away from technology? – James and his wife love to travel. They are also very sports orientated. (23.17) FINAL CAREER TIP Relationship management is the key to success. You never know where a chance meeting is going to take you. Building genuine, strong relationships with others can open up all sorts of opportunities. But, you have to be genuinely interested and engaged, with others. BEST MOMENTS (2.47) – James - “Every year, invest monetarily in yourself as a way of growing your career faster.” (6.46) – James - “Throughout the year, clearly communicate with your managers, so you can be sure you are doing things right.” (7.12) – James - “When someone gives you positive feedback make a note of it. You can use those notes during your appraisal.” (9.27) – Phil - “You don’t necessarily have to go down a management route to progress and grow your career.” (19.25) – James - “Broaden your brand, doing things like public speaking will make career progression much easier.” (23.31) – James - “Relationship management is the key to success.” ABOUT THE HOST – PHIL BURGESS Phil Burgess is an independent IT consultant who has spent the last 20 years helping organisations to design, develop and implement software solutions. Phil has always had an interest in helping others to develop and advance their careers. And in 2017 Phil started the I.T. Career Energizer podcast to try to help as many people as possible to learn from the career advice and experiences of those that have been, and still are, on that same career journey. CONTACT THE HOST – PHIL BURGESS Phil can be contacted through the following Social Media platforms: Twitter: https://twitter.com/philtechcareer LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/philburgess Facebook: https://facebook.com/philtechcareer Instagram: https://instagram.com/philtechcareer Website: https://itcareerenergizer.com/contact Phil is also reachable by email at phil@itcareerenergizer.com and via the podcast’s website, https://itcareerenergizer.com Join the I.T. Career Energizer Community on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/groups/ITCareerEnergizer ABOUT THE GUEST – James Quick James Quick is the founder of Learn Build Teach. He is a self-taught Web Developer who is addicted to learning and has a passion for teaching. He speaks at community events, participates in Hackathons and builds continuously. CONTACT THE GUEST – James Quick James Quick can be contacted through the following Social Media platforms: Twitter: https://twitter.com/jamesqquick LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesqquick/ Website: https://www.learnbuildteach.com/
Throughout his career, Ron Iddles was haunted by the first case he investigated at the Homicide Squad - the 1980 stabbing murder of bookshop owner Maria James.
Today, Phil chats with James Shore. James teaches, writes and consults on Agile development processes. He is a recipient of the Agile Alliance’s Gordon Pask Award for Contributions to Agile Practice, co-creator of the Agile Fluency Model, and co-author of “The Art of Agile Development”. James has also been named as one of “the most influential people in Agile” by InfoQ. KEY TAKEAWAYS: (0.31) – Phil started by asking James to tell everyone a bit more about himself. James explained that he started his I.T. career as a programmer. In 1999, he was introduced to what was known as Extreme Programming (XP), which is the most prominent of the Agile software development methodologies. At first, James was not convinced, but when he tried it, he was hooked. So much so, that he decided he could not work any other way. At the time, he could not find anybody else working the XP way, so he decided to teach the method himself. That is how he became an Agile consultant. (2.45) – Phil and James discuss the fact that Agile is not new. It has been around for just over 20 years now and the movement is really gathering pace. However, James does point out that “a lot of what people call Agile is not really Agile.” The quality of implementation varies quite a bit. (3.26) – Phil asks James to share a unique IT career tip. James responded by saying you need to “make a point of understanding the business impact of what you're doing." He went on to remind everyone that a typical software team costs circa $1 million to run. A cost that has to be covered by the value the team adds to the business. He highlighted the fact that a 5% improvement in a team’s performance is worth at least $50,000. When you ask for something to improve efficiency remember to make the business case and explain the cost savings clearly. (4.44) – Phil asked James to share a business experience from which he learned something important. For James that happened 20 years ago. At the time he was working for the firm that provided the robots used by Intel to move silicone around on its chip production line. James was part of a team who worked on a distributed system that had multiple services running on different computers. Each service worked in its own environment, but when they hooked it all up the problems began. At the time, the waterfall or phase gate development method was the norm for software development. It was supposed to be a flawless development process. But, in reality, it was not. That project and several others James worked on that followed the standard “waterfall” method were disasters. At that point, James realized the futility of a development method that tried to predict everything in advance, lock things down and come up with the entire design. He also saw how dangerous it was to wait to the very end to validate the work and make the biggest decisions. It was then he understood the flaws of the way development was managed 20 years ago. It was this experience that helped him to recognize the true value of Agile development methods when he was introduced to them. (8.51) – Phil asks what James considered to be his best career moment. James explained that about two years ago he consulted for a start-up that had just gone public and had growing pains. They had 40 teams, so keeping tabs on what they were all doing was impossible. Plus, there was a lot of interdependency between teams, so everything took forever. James discovered that waiting around for another team to do something was causing 95% of the delays. On one project, during a 3-month period, only 3 or 4 days of real work could be done. This stop-start, multitasking way of working, was terrible for focus too. James minimized the teams and got the firm to start by working on the smallest projects that added value, first. These changes minimized the amount of inter-team dependency and got everyone working together and actually delivering working projects fast. He also encouraged teams to solve more of their problems internally. The net result of his changes was that they reduced the delays from 95% to 0%. Most MMFs were completed in just a week or two. The company thrived and grew very quickly. (12.49) – Phil wants to know what excites James about the future for the IT industry. James explains that the fact the industry is so young is exciting because it means change is possible and can happen quickly. Agile is the exact opposite of the Waterfall way of working, yet in less than 20 years people have adopted this new way of working. That is a 180-degree change. In an older industry that just would not happen. In I.T you can suggest new ideas and people will actually be willing to try them. (15.05) – What is the best career advice you have been given? James responded with three words “be well-rounded”. (15.11) Phil asks if you were to begin your I.T. career again, right now, what would you do? James says that he would focus on networking and finding a mentor. (15.20) – Phil asks James what he is focusing on, right now. James says he is really focused on his business The Agile Fluency project. (15.29) – What is your most important non-technical skill, the one that has helped you the most in your career, so far? James says my “curiosity, flexibility, and a desire and willingness to experiment.” (15.40) – Phil asks James to share a final piece of career advice. James says that if you are working somewhere that does not enable you to do your best work you should try to change that from within. If you discover that is not possible, you need to move on and work for another organization. BEST MOMENTS: (3.13) - James - “A lot of what people call Agile is not really Agile.” "The actual implementation tends to vary in quality by quite a bit." (3.25) - James - "One of the most valuable things that you can do for your career is to make a point of understanding the business impact of what you're doing." (11.50) - James - "We went from 95% delay for most teams we got it down to zero delays, no delay at all." (12.12) - James - "It's a big cultural mindset change. And making that sort of change requires making sure that everybody's involved and understands how they benefit from this change." (13.15) - James - "Every single company of any size whatsoever needs software. Anybody that's larger than tiny needs custom software." (13.25) - James - "It's a young industry. It's open to new ideas and ways of working." (13.37) - James - "Best practices, at the time, was waterfall, which is basically the exact opposite of agile and now 20 years later, agile has taken over the world." (16.08) - James - "Don't put up with mediocrity. Don't put up with a lousy work environment, just because it's got a great salary." CONTACT JAMES SHORE: Linkedin – https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-shore-7475b6/ Twitter – https://twitter.com/jamesshore@jamesshore Website – www.agilefluency.org Personal Website – www.jamesshore.com
Fr. Jason Bowman "James: Every Day Pride" (11/4/18) by Redemption Church Frisco
Michael: Hello, everyone. This is Michael Gross of OptionSellers.com, here with head trader of OptionSellers.com, James Cordier. We’re bringing you your monthly Option Sellers Radio Show. This is for the month of July. Today, we’re going to talk about quite a few things. I want to start off with the gold market, because, James, you were featured on CNBC this month talking about gold, taking a little bit less than bullish view on that. Is that still your view on the gold market right now? James: Well, Michael, as you know, everyone’s bullish gold simply because of 0% interest rates and negative interest rates around the world. The last time that quantitative easing was introduced in the United States, that’s what raised gold from $1,100 up to $1,900. Now, a lot of investors are thinking basically along the same lines. Quantitative easing was supposed to create inflation. Several years ago in the United States, when we went to QE, it didn’t happen. Now, I believe investors are falling maybe into the same trap, thinking inflation’s on the way. Because of negative interest rates, it may not play out that way. As a matter of fact, lower prices for commodities because of a weak global economy, we think, is more likely. Michael: That’s counter to what a lot of people feel right now because of times of anxiety, we have terrorist attacks again in Paris this month, seems to be a lot of turmoil in the world right now that’s bringing a lot of investor interest into gold. You seem to feel that the inflation argument probably will be what dictates the direction here over the longer term. Is that correct? James: Michael, eventually it always does. Quite honestly, inflation is the catalyst for gold and silver to go higher. If we have deflation, we just don’t see how it can produce gold prices of $1,600, $1,700, $1,800 an ounce, which a lot of investors are looking forward to. But the fact of the matter is, gold did rally to $1,800 and $1,900 an ounce several years ago. Commodity prices were raging, soybeans were at multi-decade highs, so was copper, so was crude oil, so were many of the foods. We are going into a very weak economic/global state as far as demand for commodities. We have overproduction of everything from steel, to zinc, to iron ore, to copper, and silver. We just don’t see the inflation scenario taking place. Is gold good for hiding out when there are situations going on around the world? I guess it is; however, inflation eventually dictates the price, and we’re seeing probably deflation at the end of this year. Michael: Well James, you make some good points, and maybe they’re listening to you because since your appearance on CNBC at the beginning of July, gold has had a pretty good retracement down. I also noticed, and this is something that we mentioned in the article that you did last week, that we have a very big speculative long position in gold futures. It’s on the record that with 50,000 contracts it’s pretty heavy, so oftentimes when you have that heavy speculative yet small speculators pouring into the market, they’re heavy along the market and you have commercials getting short. Sometimes that can be an indication of a trend change. James: Michael, we think this is one of the most crowded trades ever. Just about practically everyone who’s a gold bug is double down on getting long gold. We have had a decent rally. It rallied nearly $100 an ounce. We’ve come back about $50 real rapidly over the last 2 weeks or so. Basically, the U.S. economy is doing okay. We’re not looking at negative interest rates anytime soon here. We think that the smart money, who probably was buying gold around $1,100 and $1,200, probably feels that they just have too much company right now. We see gold probably retracing into the $1,200’s over the next quarter or so. We think gold is a great market to trade. We would not be stuffing it under our mattresses… not at this price, certainly with commodities headed lower, we think gold and silver are going to probably be sold off slightly as we go to the end of the year. Michael: Now, that brings up a good point, James, and I know you’ve made this point before, as well. When you’re talking about gold prices, or writing about it, people have the viewpoint of, “Well, what is it going to do? Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? Where do I need to buy it? Should I buy it now?” Obviously, first of all, our listeners know that’s not really how we’re trading here or how you’re supposed to. What you can’t say on CNBC is “Look, I don’t know if this is the top, but we’ll see it going through the roof and you want to take advantage of selling some of those high option premiums.” Do you have any you’re looking at now or how would you go about trading that market? James: Michael, we like talking about volatility and low-hanging fruit at the same time. That just took place in gold and silver the last 2 or 3 weeks. Gold is probably fair valued around $1,300, and silver is probably fair valued around $20. The gold bugs and silver bugs just came out in full force over the last 2 weeks. Silver bugs buying $40 calls for silver out several months in time, buying $1,900 and $2,000 gold calls several months out in time. We just feel that the likelihood of that happening is so minute. It simply isn’t going to happen, in our opinion. Gold production is doing quite well, as a matter of fact. A lot of investors are familiar with the fact of oil production has gotten better and more productive with fracking. There’s a new technology in the gold production. It’s similar to oil fracking except it’s in gold production. There is no shortage of gold, and as we see investor appeal go towards other markets and realize that buying gold of $1,350 and $1,375, they’re buying the top price in the last 2 ½ years and that might be a good place to be taking profits. We think that selling calls, you know, $1,900 and $2,000 in the gold market right now is going to be ideal. We think that silver and gold are probably going to be around 10-20% cheaper than where it is right now. That’s probably the best sale on the market right now is selling silver calls at 40 and gold calls at $2,000. We think that’s probably the best way to find yield anywhere right now. Michael: Yeah, and I love that strategy, James, and I know it’s one you and I have talked about. You get so much investor interest and you get media interest and it kind of feeds on itself. That’s what brings us speculators in to start buying those deep out-of-the-money strikes. Targeting them is what you’re talking about now. A lot of investors probably aren’t aware that there are strikes available that far out of the money when you’re trading futures, and I’m sure a lot of them appreciate you pointing that out just now. Speaking of the anxiety, a lot of anxiety now coming about the election season. A big election coming up and the question I get a lot when I’m consulting with investors, and I’m sure you do too, is “How is the election going to affect commodities? How can it affect the price of my selling option portfolio?” How would you answer that question? James: Every time we have an election, all of the smartest minds in the world trying to figure out if that is going to be bullish or bearish for the stock market. Is it going create inflation if the democrat or republican wins? This has been going on for the last 200 years in the United States. We feel what it does is it provides opportunity because it’s uncertainty. Investors will buy puts who think the market is going to fall, they’ll buy calls at extraordinary levels that think it might be bullish, and we never use the terminology at the end of the day because let’s say at the end of the year from now on. That does not change the supply and demand of raw commodities. It changes it so little that going into an election, when there’s a type of fear on the upside or downside of a particular market, you want to sell that going into an election, because when the dust settles several days later, we’re right back to supply and demand, and that never changes with an election. We don’t see that happening in 2016 either. Michael: Yeah, that’s a great point. You get in an election year, especially right around the election, and maybe a couple days after you get sometimes a reaction in the stock market, and maybe even in some commodities, but the fact of the matter is, at the end of the day, no matter who gets elected, people are still going to eat their Corn Flakes, they’re still going to put gas in their car, and they’re still going to want their cup of coffee in the morning. The supply and demand cycle goes on, and that’s really how it affects the commodity portfolio. In the longer term, it probably won’t have that big of an impact. Speaking of coffee, you have a nice feature in the newsletter coming up this month that you put together on the coffee market. That’s kind of an example as where you get a news story or something pushing up prices against the fundamental. Can you talk a little bit about that? Just maybe give our listeners a preview of what’s coming up in that piece? James: Michael, what’s happening in coffee in 2016 is so similar to what has happened over the last 10 or 15 years. We have several fronts right now. We have dry conditions in some of the growing regions in South America. We have free season in Brazil, which historically was a big driver to higher prices. Of course, we have a lot of investors thinking that coffee consumption has increased dramatically. These are 3 things that have pushed coffee up recently. Coffee was trading around $1.30-$1.35 a pound. It has rallied up to $1.45-$1.50 a pound recently. Historically speaking, coffee rallies in June and July based on the fact that it is free season in Brazil. In all actuality, come September, October, November, Brazil is picking beans and Brazil, like all other nations, need to turn their commodities into cash. We see very large sales happening in September and October of this year. We see that the price of coffee will likely be around $1.30 to $1.35 at harvest time and we are very much salivating over selling calls at the $2.60, $2.70, and $2.80 level. We think that coffee will be half that price this fall, and that I think is probably one of the best examples of low-hanging fruit here in the month of July. Michael: So, it’s high right now, you think it’s fundamentally over-valued, if that’s a fair statement. You made some good points there, but is any of that based on where we are with supply right now? I know Arabica production hitting a record this year in Brazil- 43.9 million bags. Is that already priced in or is that yet to be priced in? James: The Arabica production in Brazil this year will be a record. The Robusta production in some of the northern regions of Brazil is down this year. It’s down about 2 or 3 million bags. However, there is no shortage of coffee by any means. We did have difficult weather because of El Niño this past year. La Niña is now taking place and we think that is going to return a lot of the precipitation to areas in Columbia, Brazil, Honduras, and Vietnam. That will help production in the upcoming year. Supply is worldwide; it’s practically a glut. Here in the United States, they call something known as green coffee stocks. That is counted and announced every month. In June 2016, coffee supplies hit a 13-year high here in the United States, 6.2 million bags, and no shortage of coffee in the United States. We’re the largest consumer, and as long as there’s a lot of coffee around the consumption country of the United States, we don’t see prices getting any higher than a weather scare, which is basically what we’ve had here recently. We think this is going to be a short-lived rally. Supplies are burdensome and demand is about the same, believe it or not. Michael: So, in short, this is almost like the ideal market we talk about in our book where you have a fundamental situation. The market, for whatever reason, rallies against that fundamental, it gets overvalued, the call options get overvalued, and we don’t necessarily now where that top is going to be, but when you know it’s overvalued you know it’s going to be there somewhere. When there’s options so far out-of-the-money, that’s a time you start cashing in on, that’s the time you start collecting premium. James: Michael, what we’ve noticed last 12 months is that any time a commodity rallies on headline news or slight weather concerns in different parts of the world, especially in producing nations, you have investors chasing yield. It happens in silver, it happened in soybeans, it has happened in coffee recently. When you have negative interest rates around the world it sets up opportunity, because what winds up happening is investors will end up buying commodities above and beyond their fair value, they come down to their fair value after the frenzy ends, and during that time there’s a crescendo, and that’s when you sell calls on commodities 30, 40, 50% above the market. In some cases, like in silver and coffee right now, you can sell calls 100% over the value of the market. That is just ideal for option selling in our office. Michael: Yeah, you made a point there. I want to go back to because I want to segway into talking about the upcoming newsletter this month. The front-page article we were talking there a little bit about modern asset allocation because it’s becoming kind of a hot topic in the media right now – is 60/40 – 60% stock, 40% bond, that’s what everybody is supposed to do. That’ll make you healthy, wealthy, and wise into retirement. Given the way the economics of investments are right now, you have negative interest rates, a lot of people worried about stocks, alternatives are about to get bigger. In fact, I don’t know if you’ve seen it, but there’s an ad now on TV, I believe it’s for Invesco, that they are making that statement: “60/40 is dead. The new allocation is 50/30/20, with 20% going to alternative investments.” Do you have a viewpoint on that or what type of asset do you favor? James: You know, that asset mix is becoming more and more popular. Reading the Wall Street Journal today, they were talking about CalPERS, of course the largest investment fund in the world. They made .7% and their fiscal year ending in June there is no question that investment funds, CalPERS, and everyone down to just someone investing their $1 million account of their own are looking for return. Simply put, the stock market is going to go up and down 5% at the end of the year, it might be down 1%, we’re not sure, that’s not the game we try and play. Selling options on commodities is just a great way to diversify in our opinion. It allows investors to take advantage of bull and bear markets, the economy gets weaker, it gets stronger, and it just continues to be uncertain. That’s ideal for what we do. A 20% allocation of a portfolio into diversification, if you will, into, for example, alternative investments like what we do, I think that’s about right. I know a lot of the investors that I speak to are probably around 15-20% and I think they’re happy that they are. Michael: James, I have kind of a personal story to share here. My mother came to me the other day and she wanted me to go with her to her financial advisor to meet with them. I said, “Why?” She said, “Well, I used to make money and now I don’t make any money.” It hasn’t grown, it doesn’t go anywhere, and she’s concerned she is in the wrong stuff. I said that I’d be glad to do that. I took a look at things and they have here in about 70% bonds, which may or may not be right for a retiree, and we’re certainly going to discuss that. I had to explain to her, “You’re in this bond market that maybe used to pay you yields, but it’s not paying any yields anymore, so that’s why you’re not getting money from it. I think that there is probably a lot of people in that mindset of, “Why isn’t there money coming out of this anymore?” It’s because of the state of where interest rates are right now. James: Absolutely. Central banks all around the world are doing everything they can to try and increase investment and how they do that is they punish savers. They punish people who wanted to be conservative in the past, and that’s a perfect example. 70% in bonds, getting absolutely zero return and it is just not right. Why in the world savers and people who do things as they were always taught, work hard, save your money, get a fair interest on it. Why in the world do central banks around the world force you to invest in a fashion that you normally wouldn’t do is just what has taken place recently. That is what is basically changing the real value of assets. The stock market this past week has gone up to all-time highs and what is the global economy? It’s awful. Why do you think interest rates in Germany are negative right now? Because the economy is doing good? No. They are forcing investors to take on more risk than they normally would. It is creating opportunities and everywhere from commodities to stocks, a lot of investors are fearful of the stock market right now. It’s going up right now because it has a FED put under it. In other words, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world are going to continue pumping money into the system, punishing savers, and making people invest, and that’s really a scary scenario for sometime down the line. When the stock market bubble blows, who knows, but I can’t imagine that there’s going to be a chair for everyone when the music goes off. I don’t think I’d want to be long stocks on that day. We don’t know what the stock market’s going to do the next 12 months, but a lot of the investors I speak to right now are getting a little bit fearful of it. When the stock market makes all-time highs on bearish news, you really got to think twice about what you’re doing. Michael: Yeah, I don’t know about you, but the whole thing is starting to feel like a house of cards to me. I did a little research this weekend on that figure we were talking about, the asset allocation. There was a survey, there was a number of different big banks on here, they all add up different opinions, there’s no real consensus. They interviewed Barclay’s, Goldman’s, you know, a bunch of the larger organizations, and there is quotes there anywhere from 5%-45% of your total assets and alternatives now. I’m imagining some of those are starting to skew upwards, given the current state of affairs. We’re going to be talking about that a lot more in this month’s newsletter. The Option Sellers Newsletter for August should be in your mailbox, or at least your e-mail box, by August 1st. You should expect your hard copy probably a couple days after that. James, not to totally give away the newsletter, but there’s also a discussion in this month’s newsletter about option selling as an alternative investment, but it’s a type of account that doesn’t really… it acts like a business more than an investment. What we mean by that is a lot of people think that an investment, you buy something and hope it goes up, where a business, you get paid to sell something. If you’re explaining that to someone who doesn’t know how to sell options, it’s probably a better way to explain it. Is that how you would explain it to somebody that doesn’t how to sell options? James: Michael, it’s interesting, so often we’ll have investors who are really astute. They’re very intelligent, they’ve been trained in the stock market, and they understand economics 101 all the way to 1,001. But, when it comes to explaining option premium selling to them for the first time, it is a complete mystery. It is so much like owning an insurance company. It’s like running a business. Basically, you’re selling to people buying. 80% of the time these options expire worthless. The insurance company probably has even a better ratio than that, but you’re basically running a business. As opposed to an asset, like Apple stock or gold, and hoping that it rallies, you’re basically running a business by selling insurance premiums to whether investors are familiar with the price of calls or puts that they should be buying or not. The fact of the matter is, we’re basically running this investment more like an insurance company. It’s been that way for the last several years and, with the uncertainty abound right now, it feels like it’s going to continue over the next 2-3 years, at least, until a lot of the uncertainty around the world gets unsettled. Premiums are much too high for the underlining value of commodities. It is a lot like running an insurance company and, as long as option buyers continue, we’ll continue selling them. It is a whole lot like taking in premiums. Every once in a while you have to pay them out, but for the most part, it’s a good place to be. It’s almost like being in the house in Las Vegas or an insurance company, depending on which scenario you want to look at. It has been interesting and it seems to be getting better and better. Michael: Buffet says insurance is the world’s most profitable business. I think that’s a pretty good analogy. We will be covering that a lot more in the newsletter. You can look for that, again, on August 1st. James, let’s transition here and do our lesson for the month. There’s a good thing I want to bring up because we ran a series of blog entries this month entitled 7 Ways to Get Higher Premiums. It was, as you know, we discussed different ways you can get higher option premiums. It doesn’t necessarily say that we recommend all of them or we use all of them, but we talked about 7 different ways. I know you have your favorites and I thought maybe you could talk about some of the ways or some of the methods you use when you’re managing portfolios. How do you or what do you look for to target higher premiums? James: Michael, it’s interesting. When selling options, there are many different ways described as to how much time to sell, how far out-of-the-money, what type of premiums to look for. One really easy secret that I can share with our listeners today, is that if you look at options that are 30-40% out-of-the-money and you look at options that far out-of-the-money that are 30 days left before expiring, 60 days left before expiring, 90 days before expiring, they’re almost practically at the exact same price. If that is the case, why wouldn’t you go out an additional 90 days when you sell an option? If 30% out-of-the-money a 1 month, 2 month, 3 month option is basically at the same price, go out an additional 90 days because you will get, when you initiate that short option, you will get 40-50% more premium by going out that much further in time. Yet, when it gets closer to expiration day, whether you have 1 month left on your option or 90 days left on your option, it’s practically the same price. The easy secret is to go an additional 90 days further than you think you normally would because, come expiration day, as we approach that time, you are able to cover that option 90 days left, 60 days left, 30 days left at practically the same price. So, very easily said, go out further in time. It allows you to get much more premium, in some cases 30, 40, 50% more premium, and as you near option expiration, you can cover it at 10% of what you initially sold it for. That is something that we do for our clients constantly. There are a couple other secrets. I can’t give them all away today, but, for those learning exactly what we do, that is something for you to consider. Quite often, a portfolio opens with us and they’re surprised at how far out-of-the-money we sell. Often, people think that gives the market a long time for you to be wrong. We don’t look at it that way- it gives us much more time to be right. That’s the way it has been turning out for the last several years. Michael: James, that is a great point, one that strikes home with me because I remember back in the day, years ago, we used to debate that. You used to always say it was better to sell further out. I kind of favored selling a little bit nearer. Over time, I came to see the light. Your way of going at it, I really saw the logic in it and the years have proven that to be an astute way to approach this. It seems to give you a lot more leeway, there’s a lot more margin for error, and you get a higher premium off of it. James: Michael, trading a lot is not what we’re interested in. Increasing high, high, high probability of option expiration is what we’re after. It all really pays off in the long run. Michael: Yeah, and you shared your favorite strategy for getting higher premiums. I’m going to share mine, too. We’ll give our listeners 2 out of the 7 that are our favorites. This is probably one of the ones you like, as well, because I know it’s something that we do often. In selling credit spreads, and a lot of people think that protection is expensive, you’re selling an option, you take a premium, and then you’re buying that protective call or put to limit or curtail your risk, which can be a great idea. Often times, after that first few months, and those options are already well into decay, the odds of those options ever going in the money begins to drop substantially. If you can unload your protection and sell it back to the market, that brings in some extra premium for your credit spread. You just let the nakeds expire. I know that’s one you like to use, as well. James: Michael, the time to do that is when volatility is the highest. Buying protection when volatility is low is expensive. Right now, buying protection is very cheap. Once again, it increases the odds of the trade going favorably for you. Buying protection right now is absolutely excellent timing to do that right now because of the high volatility, the high premiums. It gives us the luxury of buying protection and, talk about sleeping at night, option expiration happens worthless so often. If you can add protection to that, it just increases everyone’s odds that much more. Michael: Excellent. For those of you listening, if you want to hear more of those strategies, obviously we recommend our book, The Complete Guide to Option Selling: Third Edition. It’s available on our website, OptionSellers.com/book. We cover those strategies and many more for getting higher premiums and protecting your downslide, hopefully building a long-term income stream. We’re going to close this month by letting you know that we do have a couple spots left for our President’s Club. I have a client group this month that’s accounts $1 million and up. Those accounts do receive some special benefits. If you’re interested, you can feel free to give us a call at 800-346-1949. Other accounts, we do have some pre-qualifying interviews left in August. If you’d like to inquire about an account and schedule an interview, you can contact Rosemary at that same number… 800-346-1949. If you’re out of the United States, you can reach us at 813-472-5760. Obviously, if you’d like more information today, you can also find out at our website, OptionSellers.com. We’d like to wish you all a great month. We’ll be updating you on your portfolio progress on the bi-weekly videos. James, thanks for your great insight this month. James: Michael, it was my pleasure. There’s nothing that I like talking about more than short options on commodities. They’re getting more lucrative and certainly something that’s near and dear to our hearts. Michael: All right. Well, everybody, thanks for listening. We will talk to you again next month, and have a great month of option selling. Thank you.
Welcome to the first episode of Totally Made Up Tales, an experiment in improvised storytelling in the digital age. We hope you enjoy our tales of wonder and mystery. Let us know what you think! Music: Creepy – Bensound.com. Transcript: Andrew: These are some stories which we made up brought to you by the magic of the internet. Once upon a time Jesus H. Christ set out from his home to the marketplace. He stood among the market traders on an old box preaching to the crowds. "Blessed are the cheese makers," he'd acclaimed and a passing cheese maker so delighted in hearing his words that he gave him a shiny silver coin. "Uh huh," thought Jesus to himself. "I bet I can take this coin, multiply it into many more using one simple trick." "Blessed are the rich," said Jesus. The end. This is the story of the witch and the turning sickness. Once upon a time, in a relatively far away place, there was a deep dark forest. James: Almost no one ever went into the forest. For the first mile or so round the edge, you can sometimes snare rabbits or maybe go logging, but further in if men ventured they did not return. Andrew: There were no ponds in the heart of this forest. Only huge, nulled tree trunks growing up the bushy leaves of the canopy obscuring the sky in all but the very depths of winter. But still in this heart, there dwelled one person. James: An old and wise woman. She had lived there, some say for centuries. Andrew: There were many things ... it was said ... that she understood. How to control the seasons and the weather ... James: How to talk to animals and smaller creatures. Andrew: How to raise the dead from their graves. James: How to blend and choose the herbs and spices of the forest to counteract illness and drive away evil spirits. Andrew: But whatever favor she did for you, if you made your way into the heart of the forest and found her cottage and begged for her help, she would ask for a price. James: The price would always be high. Perhaps the highest you could possibly pay but it would also always be appropriate to you, to the illness she was curing or the misdeeds she was covering over. Andrew: Those who failed to pay would suffer a terrible punishment as all of the power that she had used to help was unleashed on creating suffering. James: In another part of the country, far far away from the black forest there sat a village of great renown. Andrew: The people of this village were famed for miles around ... all of the other towns and villages of the plain knew that these people were good and chaste and virtuous and pure of heart. James: It was winter. The end of Christmas tide and the villagers were bringing in their livestock to the great communal barn to shelter them there through the bitterous nights of darkness ... Andrew: ... and after their mid-winter festival which they always held when the great herding of animals had been completed, they all returned to their homes. The next day they woke and to their horror, they found that the barn had been raided over night and six chickens had been taken away. James: The village elders questioned everyone but nobody had heard or seen anything and nobody confessed to the crime. No remnants of the chickens were found and the village was forced to go to sleep once more aware now that there might be a thief amongst them. Andrew: In deed the very next day dawn bright and early and they found that this time two pigs had been taken and again nobody had seen anything, nobody had heard anything, the village elders questioned everybody. There was no evidence. James: One more night, the villagers slept worried now about what would be stolen overnight and sure enough, as the weak raise of the winter sun touched the steeple of the village church, they woke to discover the great cow had been stolen. Andrew: The village elders met in councils to discuss the situation. "How can it be that we, people known to be pure of heart, people known to be good and true should have to suffer this terrible plague of theft upon our houses." James: "It cannot be one of us," they agreed. "We are too good. We are too pure. It must be the work of the devil." Andrew: "Yes. The devil who brings with him the turning sickness," said one of the elders from the back of the room. They turned to look at him. "Yes. I recall a tale from my childhood of an entire village wiped out. A village who had been pure of heart but were corrupted by the taint of sin in the cool clear air." James: On hearing this, the other elders were much afraid and they turned to their leader. "What should we do? What can we do to protect ourselves from the devil himself?" Andrew: "We must barricade ourselves within our homes and barricade our livestock into the barn. We must pray that it is not too late and that we are still able to escape the sickness." James: That night the villagers barricaded themselves into their homes, having previously boarded up the barn with the livestock inside it. No more theft that night but the following morning they discovered that they were already too late. Every house had at least one person fall to the turning sickness. Andrew: "What shall we do now?" said the council of elders. "We have waited too long. We have let the situation go too far and the devil already has hold of us." There is only one thing we can do. You must send for the witch. James: So their fastest messenger was sent on their fastest horse speeding through the winter nights towards the dark forest and the witch's house within. Andrew: He tethered his horse at the edge of the forest and set out through the dense network of trees. It seemed like he had trekked for days when at last he came across a tiny crooked cottage in a tiny clearing. James: "I know why you are here," said the witch. "You have succumbed to the devil and the turning sickness." "Yes," said the messenger. "Will you help us?" "I will help you," said the witch "but there shall be a price." Andrew: "Name your price," said the messenger. "We will pay anything. Our people are sick and must be saved." "Yes," said the witch. "I will save them. I will save them all but then I shall return in ten summers time and I shall take from the village to be my slaves and minions all of your virgins." James: So saying, she cracked up her herbs and spices into her bag, leapt upon her broomstick and vanished. Appearing moments later at the village where the elders were waiting anxiously for word. Andrew: "Almighty and powerful witch," they said as she appeared before them, "We thank you for being merciful and coming to our aid in our hour of need." James: "Of course," said the witch. "But heed my price and pay it in full," and so saying she unpacked her herbs and spices and made a bitter brew which every villager drank down and in the morning the turning sickness was gone. "Remember the price," said the witch before leaving the village alone. Andrew: There was great celebration in the village that people had been cured and spared and that they were able to go on living their lives. What joy there was in their hearts until they remembered the price that they were going to have to pay. How would it be that in ten years time, all of the young and the purest of the pure of heart to be snatched away. James: ... and so the council of elders met and decided a terrible fate for the village. For the next ten years, no children were to be born. No children were to be allowed. If any were conceived and carried to term, they would be without mercy killed that they might not become the slaves of the witch. Andrew: ... and so it was that this cruel policy was enacted and for ten years the villagers kept their word and though they may have sorrow in their hearts, they brought no children into the world. So it was that ten summers had passed and the witch returned on her broomstick and called to the village that they come and meet her and pay her price. James: When the witch found out that they had no virgins to give, she burned the village down with all the villagers inside it. The end. A long time ago, before mankind came on the scene, the northern hemisphere was ruled by dinosaurs using a democratic system of government. One day at the meeting of the senate, their chief scientific advisor made a great announcement. "We have discovered," he said " a large expanse of water on the moon. Should we go there?" "Yes." They said and did. The end. Now the tale of the talking horse of Baghdad. Andrew: Once upon a time in a far away land, there lived a horse. This horse was no ordinary horse. He had a magical power. James: Every morning he would get up, stretch and in front of the villagers and anyone who had gathered he would declaim a story. Andrew: This was a talking horse. A horse with a gift of speech, an eloquent horse, a great orator some say that people would travel miles to hear. James: One day after giving his oration, he noticed a small man at the edge of the paddock. Andrew: He went up to the man and said, "You seem like a stranger. You're not from these parts. I haven't seen your face before." "That's right," said the man, "I have traveled from far off Baghdad. James: ... and I noticed as I watched you after your oration, you seem troubled, you seem alone. " Andrew: "Yes," said the horse, "It is true. For although I have many admirers and people come from far and wide to hear me speak, in my heart I have a great loneliness ... James: ... for I am the only talking horse that I have ever encountered and without others of my kind, how could I possibly be other than alone." Andrew: "Well," said the man, "In that case, you must travel for in Baghdad there is a talking horse of great repute that people come from even further to see." James: "If this is so," said the horse, "then I shall journey there at once" and so saying, he packed up his few belongings. Andrew: He had some strips of wood, some coal ore and a woolen fleece from a mighty sheep. James: Packing them away, he trotted south. South through the hills and valleys. South towards the unknown. Andrew: At the top of the highest hill, he stopped and turned and looked back at the way he had come, at the land that he had called home for so many years and thought to himself ... James: "Will I ever come this way again? Perhaps this is the last few I will have of this home." So saying, he turned and proceeded south. Andrew: Beyond the hills laid the great dusty desert plain filed with dunes and sand. James: He traveled through it for many days, gradually feeling weaker and weaker until he reached an oasis in the desert where he was able to quench his thirst. Andrew: At the desert oasis, he met with a nomadic tribe and asked them, "Which is the best route from here to Baghdad?" James: ... and they turned and pointed east. East towards the jewel of the Caliphate. He thanked them with a story and continued on. Andrew: He trekked for many days and many nights and finally was clear of the desert and standing before the towering great gate of the city wall of Baghdad. James: Minarets twisted high above him and mighty stone randalls beneath. Andrew: The gate of the wall was closed and by it, a sleeping century stood in his box. "Hello," cried the horse, "Hello." James: The soldier woke with a stat. "Who is it? Who is it who seeks passage into Baghdad?" he asked. "It's just me," said the horse, "Just me." Andrew: "I have come for I hear there is a great talking horse in the city and I wish to speak with him." "Very well, " said the soldier, "but there is a price." James: "You must pay the tax of the Caliph." "Well, what is this tax," said the horse, "I don't have many possessions. I have wood, ore and the ewe skin." "Ah," said the soldier, "Well it just so happens that as the winter nights draw in, I have a longing for warmth. I will take your wood and let you pass into the city of Baghdad," and so as the soldier built himself a fire, the horse trotted in. Andrew: All roads in Baghdad lead to one mighty central square. It is said to be the largest square in the whole of the world. James: The horse looked around seeking from corner to corner, anyone who could help him in his quest for the talking horse of Baghdad. A small voice appeared at his side. Andrew: It was a little girl. "Excuse me," she said to him, "Are you lost? You look lost. Can I help you?" James: "I am looking," said the horse, "for the talking horse of Baghdad." "I can help you," said the girl, "but there is a price." Andrew: "Well," said the horse, " I have in my saddle bag my coal ore or a mighty sheep skin." "Oh," said the girl, "Yes. A sheep skin... James: That will keep me warm during the bitter winter nights as the cold winds blow across the plains," and so she took him to the stables. Andrew: ... and there he encountered a small man with a large key standing outside a locked door. "Excuse me," James: ... said the horse, "Can you let me in to see the talking horse of Baghdad?" "I can," said the man, "but there will be a price." Andrew: "The only thing I have for you," said the horse, "is this coal ore." "Aha," said the man, "This is perfect for firing my brassier." "Yes," he said and took his mighty key ... James: ... and unlocked the stable door and the horse trotted inside but within was not a talking horse of Baghdad ... Andrew: ... but a whole crowd of horses. Hundred upon hundreds of them chattering in the many languages of the world. "What?" thought the horse to himself, "Can there be?" James: "What is this?" and he nudged the closest horse to him and said, "What is going on?" "This," said the horse... Andrew: "... is the parliament of all horses. Delegations from around the world have been sent so that we may decide who we crown as our new king." James: This is the talking horse of Baghdad. Andrew: "Stranger, you are welcome. Tell us your tale." Peter ... James: ... went ... Andrew: ... to ... James: ... the ... Andrew: ... shops ... James: ... to ... Andrew: ... buy ... James: ... some ... Andrew: ... bread. James: He ... Andrew: ... forgot ... James: ... to ... Andrew: ... bring ... James: ... his ... Andrew: ... plastic ... James: ... bag ... Andrew: ... so ... James: ... was ... Andrew: ... wasteful ... James: ... and ... Andrew: ... lost ... James: ... five ... Andrew: ... pea ... James: ... the ... Andrew: ... end. James: Jeremy ... Andrew: ... played ... James: ... cards ... Andrew: ... against ... James: ... his ... Andrew: ... mother ... James: ... and ... Andrew: ... won. James: She ... Andrew: ... never ... James: ... spoke ... Andrew: ... to ... James: ... him ... Andrew: ... again. James: The ... Andrew: ... end. Harold ... James: ... went ... Andrew: ... upstairs ... James: ... and ... Andrew: ... fell ... James: ... downstairs ... Andrew: ... the ... James: end. Andrew: I've been Andrew and I'm here with James. Join us next time for more made up tales. James: Clive ... Andrew: ... met ... James: ... a ... Andrew: ... sticky ... James: ... end ... Andrew: ... when ... James: ... he ... Andrew: ... reversed ... James: ... into ... Andrew: ... a ... James: ... beehive. Andrew: The ... James: ... end. Andrew: That will do nicely, I think.