Small World, Big Problems

Connor Hall talks with US Air Force Brigadier General Geoffrey Weiss on the evolution of modern airpower theory, the role airpower has played in recent conflicts, and the future of manned aircraft in an environment increasingly dominated by attritable unmanned systems. General Weiss is currently serving as the Director of Regional Affairs in the office of the Secretary of the Air Force for International Affairs (SAF/IA) at the Pentagon. His critically-acclaimed book The New Art of War was published in 2021 by Cambridge University Press and has been an Amazon bestseller in military history and military science. Researched and hosted by Connor Hall; edited by Emma Ding.

Erik Schuh talks with Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro about how China became a great power, discussing her recent book on the topic. They dive into China's rise compared to historical global powers and where the U.S.-China relationship stands today.Dr. Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University.Dr. Mastro's Book: Upstart: How China Became a Great Power Follow Dr. Mastro: https://x.com/osmastro This episode was researched and hosted by Erik Schuh; it was edited by Emma Ding.

Luke Litle talks with Dr. Ursula Wilder about the importance of understanding the psychology of foreign leaders and of ourselves, the psychology of historical figures, and the psychology of deterrence. Dr. Wilder takes us down her career path and offers invaluable advice to students and young professionals in the national security space. We explore the frontiers of the study of psychology as applied to intelligence work, such as the fields of cyber psychology and artificial intelligence. Dr. Wilder is a clinical psychologist at the Central Intelligence Agency, where she has served for 27 years. She's done operational work with the CIA's counter-terrorism center, analyzed the psychology of extremists in the DNI's counter-terrorism center, and has spent considerable time assessing the psychology of world leaders for CIA.

Luke Litle talks with Dr. Mara Karlin about the development of the 2022 National Defense Strategy, various practical approaches to deterring adversaries, recent US security challenges, and potential future global security threats. Dr. Karlin is a professor of practice at SAIS and is the co-lead for the Security, Strategy, and Statecraft focus area. She has served in national security roles for six U.S. secretaries of defense, advising on policies spanning strategic planning, defense budgeting, the future of conflict, and regional affairs involving the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Most recently, she served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities, leading the development and implementation of the 2022 National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review, and Missile Defense Review.

Days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, new in office, gave the now famous Zeitenwende speech in which he proclaimed a dramatic turn in German foreign policy and national security policy in response to Russia's full-scale aggression. The speech generated a lot of discussions and, sometimes, unrealistic optimism. Two years later, Germany has been at the forefront of supporting Ukraine militarily and economically, but as the war has turned into a war of attrition, Germany is still a long way from the ambitious undertaking of Zeitenwende and divided over the extent to which to support Ukraine. In this episode, Jeff Rathke, the President of the American-German Institute, Washington's only think tank focusing exclusively on Germany and U.S.-German relations, discusses with Martin Makaryan Germany's role in the security architecture of Europe and within NATO, the practical implications of Zeitenwende, the war in Ukraine, and what the future holds for U.S.-German relations and Germany's new role in Europe. This episode was recorded by Martin Makaryan and produced by Luke Litle and Andrew Whelan.

In a first for Small World Big Problems, this week we interviewed a sitting head of state: Jakov Milatović, the 37-year-old president of Montenegro.Milatović was elected in May of 2023 on a pro-European Union, pro-democracy, and anti-corruption platform that has received record-breaking support from the people of Montenegro. In an era of weakening democracy and growing isolationism around the world, Montenegro has proven to be an exception to the rule. But why are these values important to everyday Montenegrins, and how do ongoing threats—like disinformation and organized crime—endanger the progress that has been made so far?Sitting down with President Milatović was a fantastic opportunity, and we thank him for his time.Special thanks also go to Ed Joseph, Brent Kesler, and the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute for arranging the interview.This episode was researched, hosted, and edited by Eli George, with audio support from the staff at the JHU Bloomberg Center Media Suite.

Russia has a long-fabled history of deep-cover spies in the West. Known as the Illegals Program, these spies enter Western countries under false identities to conduct espionage activities. The history of this program goes back to the earliest days of the USSR, but these spies still lurk in the shadows of universities, think-tanks, and suburban neighborhoods across the West. Why does Russia use these types of spies? Has their mission changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine? How can private institutions protect themselves from Russian intelligence? In this episode, we discuss the answers to these questions with Professor Mark Kelton. Professor Kelton was formerly the Deputy Director of the National Clandestine Service for Counterintelligence, one of the most senior positions within the National Clandestine Service. This episode was researched, recorded, and edited by Connor Crago.

In part two of this interview with Richard "Otter" Bew, we dive deep into the challenges currently facing the defense industry. The digital revolution is upending how we approach defense; back in the day, we could plan out development on a ten or fifteen year timeline. But now, game-changing technologies are being released every few months. The militaries that can best capitalize on this revolution will be the most successful in the 21st century. How can the US keep up? And what are the stakes if we don't? This episode was researched, edited, and produced by Eli George.

The American defense industry employs over a million people—in the military, in civilian jobs, and at private companies—and every part matters. Few people have spent as much time inside this complex machine as our guest this week: Richard T. Bew, the Chief of Staff for Lockheed Martin. In part one of this two-part interview, we talk with him about his time as a Marine aviator, the importance of human capital in the civil-military relationship, and the changing character of war in the 21st century. This episode was researched, recorded, and edited by Eli George.

The EU and the US have long been steadfast partners across the Atlantic, with healthy trade relations and cooperation in numerous sectors of foreign policy, including combatting climate change, promoting the rule of law, and international security. With several international security crises taking place globally, it is important for the cooperation between the two to remain strong. However, elections on both sides of the Atlantic this upcoming year have once again raised questions of how much we can take the relationship for granted.On today's episode, Deputy Ambassador of the EU to the US Michael Curtis discusses Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Middle-East, and relations with China, and how it has impacted his work in Washington DC.This interview is conducted by Miloš Maggiore, and researched by Camilla Manning, Juliette Verlaque, and Ryan Sheets.

Over the last 15 years, Bolivia has experienced political and economic ups and downs. The MAS, a socialist part with a leftist agenda, led a period of high growth and a vibrant new political party structure. Now, the party is experiencing internal conflict and the country has a mighty foreign exchange crisis on its hands. If Bolivia plays its cards right, though, it could improve its economic, and thus political standing. In discussing Bolivia's current challenges and future opportunities, Noah Martin sits down with Dr. Calla Hummel to get a better understanding of the country's political economy and what's in store going forward. Research, hosted, and edited by Noah Martin. Produced by Noah Martin and Dylan Yachyshen.

We are joined by Sergey Radchenko, a Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at SAIS Europe, and Director of the Bologna Institute for Policy Research. An expert on Sino-Soviet relations, Soviet and Chinese foreign policies, he discusses the State of Sino-Russia Relations in the wake of a raging war in Ukraine.Connor Crago conducted this interview. The episode was researched and produced by Benie Kwarteng and Adi Baurzhanuly.

Cyber operations are becoming increasingly ubiquitous as a means for nation state and non-nation state actors to engage in intelligence collection, subversion, and strategic competition more broadly. As our world becomes more thoroughly networked and as more data travels throughout cyberspace, the potential power of cyber operations and the urgency of cyber security grow exponentially. Cyberspace has increasingly become a heated, persistent domain of competition between nation state and non-nation state actors alike, and both the US government and private sector are working feverishly to increase their capacity to understand it and operate within it.Luke Litle sits down with Prof. Andrew Boyd, who recently retired as the director of the CIA's Center for Cyber Intelligence (CCI) and is now serving as an adjunct professor in the Alperovitch Institute at JHU SAIS. They discuss his transition from the human intelligence field to cyber intelligence, the ways US competitors and adversaries are using cyber tools to advance their national interest, current US efforts to develop and define its own cyber policy, the fusion of public and private sector cyber security efforts, and opportunities to serve in the cyber realm within the US government and private sector.

In the 2000s, China has undertaken an unprecedented naval buildup, expanded its investment in overseas ports, and pushed new interpretations of laws of the sea to secure sovereignty in its “near seas” while protecting its interests in the “far seas.” In discussing China's comprehensive approach to maritime power, Dylan Yachyshen sits down with Dr. Isaac Kardon to analyze China's strategic conception of the “near” and “far” seas, China's attempts to advance new interpretations of the law of the sea, and its investment in overseas ports. Dr. Kardon's new book China's Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order covers China's efforts at shaping the law of the sea in further detail.

In our latest podcast episode, host AlMaha Al-Neama and guest journalist Ivan Nechepurenko from The New York Times explore the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a significant and ongoing dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They discuss the conflict's history, its status as a complex and long-standing territorial struggle, and the delicate balance of the current no-peace, no-war situation.The episode examines both historical aspects and current dynamics, including the roles of major international organizations and the potential for a sustainable peace. Special focus is given to the humanitarian crisis, the challenges faced by displaced populations, and the conflict's broader geopolitical impact, especially considering the involvement of powers like Russia.This episode is essential listening for anyone eager to understand the complexities of international conflicts and the delicate interplay between national sovereignty and ethnic self-determination. Join us for an enlightening discussion that illuminates this critical global issue.

Intelligence analysis is a tricky job, and failure can have devastating consequences. Since the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel, this issue has become more acute as experts wonder how Hamas was able to manage such a sophisticated operation undetected by Israeli intelligence. But this is not the only example of intelligence failure. In this week's episode, we are joined once again by the former Acting Director of the CIA, John McLaughlin, to discuss the difficulties of intel collection and analysis—and how addressing these challenges requires both fighting and embracing human nature.To read more about historical examples of intelligence failure and how they may apply to the situation in Israel, check out Prof. McLaughlin's recent article in The Cipher Brief:https://www.thecipherbrief.com/why-did-israeli-intelligence-fail-history-suggests-many-causes

In a rapidly-transforming Middle East, the ascendant roles of China and Russia are reshaping the region's security landscape. This comes in tandem with the startling normalization of relations between erstwhile rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, a move orchestrated by China. Professor Vali Nasr decodes these developments and their potential implications for the United States. This conversation aims to clarify the ever-changing alliances and power equations in the Middle East, as nations endeavor to break away from Western hegemony.

The United States Armed Forces are facing the biggest recruiting crisis in fifty years. At the same time, there is a growing cultural gap between the military and civilian sectors of the American public. Politicians, generals, and academics are all concerned, but the situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. This week, we sit down with Dr. Nora Bensahel and LTG David Barno to discuss the recruiting crisis, the civil military gap, and how, if left unchecked, these issues may affect the United States in the long term. For more information on the recruiting crisis, check out Gen. Barno and Dr. Bensahel's article from earlier this year: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/

John McLaughlin is the Distinguished Practitioner in Residence at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, contributing columnist to Grid News, and former acting director of the CIA. In this episode Professor McLaughlin discusses the origins of the war in Ukraine and the possible future outcomes of the war. He also gives his thoughts on Russia's relationship with China and the role of open source intelligence.

For our inaugural episode we delve into one of the most pressing questions of our time: Can the United States prevail in a war with China? Join us as we explore the complex dynamics, military considerations, and strategic challenges surrounding the most consequential threat facing the United States and global peace. Today's guest is Dr. Thomas Mahnken, a renowned strategist and military analyst. Dr. Mahnken is a member of the Army Science board, a professor of strategy at JHU SAIS, and has written extensively on this and related topics.