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Former CIA station chief Ralph Goff returns to analyze the actions, likely outcomes, and fearmongering surrounding the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Regime change. World War 3. Tucker vs Cruz. Iranian civil war. America's role. With decades of experience running covert operations across the Middle East and beyond, Goff gives us a grounded assessment of the strategic risks and geopolitical implications as Israel pushes the Iranian regime closer to the brink of collapse. Ralph Goff is a 35-year veteran of the CIA and a 6-time station chief who served in Europe, the Middle East, and Central and South Asia. He also served as Chief of CIA's National Resources Division, working extensively with “C Suite” level US private sector executives in the financial, banking, and security sectors. Today he is a risk management consultant and contributor for The Cipher Brief. Subscribe to Hold These Truths on Apple, Spotify, and YouTube Follow Dan Crenshaw on IG, X, and Facebook
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians have used every resource available to fight back. From aid packages and weapons systems acquired from western allies to mobilizing every sector of society to bring innovation to the fight, Ukraine has stayed alive largely because of its adaptations of technology and its ingenuity on the battlefield. As part of a special delegation that visited Kyiv last month – led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus, The Cipher Brief met senior Chief Warrant Officer Joey Gagnard, who retired from the U.S. Special Operations Community earlier this year. As part of that delegation, Gagnard's unique take on where Ukraine is today when it comes to its use and development of war technologies like unmanned systems – provided some ground truth about where it may be headed.
Ralph Goff is a 35-year veteran of the CIA and a 6-time station chief who served in Europe, the Middle East, and Central and South Asia. He gives an inside look into how the CIA manages their agents and assets in some of the most dangerous regions on earth. We discuss the state of play with Russia, the Middle East, and Mexico. We cover fact vs fiction in Hollywood and the real skillsets that make for a good spy. And we look at how the Trump Administration will restore public trust in the intelligence community and strengthen our capabilities to counter adversaries like Russia and Iran. Ralph Goff also served as Chief of CIA's National Resources Division, working extensively with “C Suite” level US private sector executives in the financial, banking, and security sectors. Today he is a risk management consultant and contributor for The Cipher Brief.
Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to warm U.S. relations with Moscow amid negotiations for Russia to end its war in Ukraine, Russian sabotage operations, active measures and Gray Zone activities are continuing around the world. Moscow has mastered the art of engaging in operations that push right up to the edge of war, without really crossing that that line, or have they? The Cipher Brief talks with former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office Nick Fishwick and former senior CIA Executive Dave Pitts – who spent the bulk of his time at the Agency working in clandestine operations – about this new reality – that what we are seeing is really “war by a new name”.
Carmen Medina defies simple description. She spent more than 30 years at the CIA, rising to the leadership team of the Directorate of Intelligence, despite her iconoclasticism and vociferous evangelism of new technologies. Since retiring more than a decade ago, she has co-written a book about rebelling within bureaucracy--and advocated the exploration of precognition for intelligence purposes.She joined David Priess for a wide and deep conversation about her analytic and managerial career, the process and pitfalls of analytic coordination, cooperation between US and UK intelligence, the CIA's incorporation of publish-when-ready technology in the late 1990s, the downside of extensive editorial review of analytic products, the importance of including more intuition in intelligence analysis, why precognition should be taken seriously, and more.Works mentioned in this episode:The book Rebels At Work by Lois Kelly and Carmen MedinaThe book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanThe article by Carmen Medina, "The Potential of Integrating Intelligence and Intuition," Cipher Brief, June 10, 2022.The book American Cosmic by D. W. PasulkaThe book Orbiting the Giant Hairball by Gordon MacKenzieThe book How To Be a Renaissance Woman by Jill BurkeThe book 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed by Eric ClineThe book The Infidel and the Professor by Dennis RasmussenThe book The Ministry of Time by Kaliane BradleyThe book The Chronoliths by Robert Charles WilsonChatter is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This episode was produced and edited by Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Podcast theme by David Priess, featuring music created using Groovepad.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Carmen Medina defies simple description. She spent more than 30 years at the CIA, rising to the leadership team of the Directorate of Intelligence, despite her iconoclasticism and vociferous evangelism of new technologies. Since retiring more than a decade ago, she has co-written a book about rebelling within bureaucracy--and advocated the exploration of precognition for intelligence purposes.She joined David Priess for a wide and deep conversation about her analytic and managerial career, the process and pitfalls of analytic coordination, cooperation between US and UK intelligence, the CIA's incorporation of publish-when-ready technology in the late 1990s, the downside of extensive editorial review of analytic products, the importance of including more intuition in intelligence analysis, why precognition should be taken seriously, and more.Works mentioned in this episode:The book Rebels At Work by Lois Kelly and Carmen MedinaThe book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanThe article by Carmen Medina, "The Potential of Integrating Intelligence and Intuition," Cipher Brief, June 10, 2022.The book American Cosmic by D. W. PasulkaThe book Orbiting the Giant Hairball by Gordon MacKenzieThe book How To Be a Renaissance Woman by Jill BurkeThe book 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed by Eric ClineThe book The Infidel and the Professor by Dennis RasmussenThe book The Ministry of Time by Kaliane BradleyThe book The Chronoliths by Robert Charles WilsonChatter is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This episode was produced and edited by Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Podcast theme by David Priess, featuring music created using Groovepad. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Cipher Brief has been honored to support a number of non-profit organizations over the years that have made giving back their mission – especially in the national security world. In this episode of State Secrets, we're welcoming David Kramer, a self-described ‘regular guy who wanted to give back' and Jeremy Morton, a former special operations operator who has done some pretty impressive stuff during his time in the military – to talk about how they're giving back via a non-profit called SOC-F.
Beijing is building its largest military since the 1930s and Matt Pottinger and his colleagues at Stanford are deeply concerned. First as a former journalist, and then as former Deputy National Security Advisor in the first Trump Administration, Pottinger has been watching what Chinese President Xi Jinping both says and does - for decades. He explains to The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly why those two things are making it very clear that China is on a collision course with the U.S.
This week on the ‘What's Your Pineapple Express?' series, Scott had the honor of sitting down and speaking with an incredible leader – Jason Howk. Jason leads a non-profit organization called Global Friends of Afghanistan and has continued doing amazing work while keeping Afghanistan at the forefront. Join us this week as Jason shares his many years of experience in Afghanistan, gives us insight into some very important information, and shares what we need to learn from the abandonment of Afghanistan. Some of the things he reveals about what happened with this abandonment and more importantly, what's happening right under our noses in this growing safe haven will blow you away. Own Every Room - https://rooftopleadership.com/owneveryroom/ Nobody is Coming to Save You - https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/scott-mann/nobody-is-coming-to-save-you/9781546008286/?lens=center-street Scottmann.com Join Rooftop Nation! Website: https://www.rooftopleadership.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ScottMannAuthor Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/scottmannauthor LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/rooftop-leadership Twitter: https://twitter.com/RooftopLeader Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYOQ7CDJ6uSaGvmfxYC_skQ Select Afghanistan experiences and published works SummaryJason Criss Howk spent 23 years in the U.S. Army as an Infantry and Sapper Paratrooper, and also as a South Asia Foreign Area Officer (Soldier-Diplomat). His work in Afghanistan began in 2002 and has continued until the present day as he leads the Global Friends of Afghanistan educational non-profit organization that monitors and leads discussions on Afghan issues. Jason has worked on Afghanistan portfolios at the tactical, operational, strategic, national policy and international policy levels. He has taken part in a variety of missions to include military, diplomatic, intelligence, academic, and humanitarian efforts. During his Afghanistan work Jason worked daily with dozens of generals, ambassadors, and political appointees with Afghan portfolios. Due to his assignments and knowledge of the topic, Jason is one of the few Americans that has been privy to the discussions of all 4 presidential administrations as they planned their Afghanistan policy. Jason studied both Arabic and Dari at the Defense Language Institute, is a professor at the USAF Special Operations School, and is a Malone Fellow in Arab and Islamic Studies. He holds a Master's Degree in South Asia and Middle East Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, is a CGSC graduate, and was a term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations from 2010-2015. Jason is an award-winning author who has written 4 books in English and has published over 225 works since 2008 in over 40 outlets. As a professor, lecturer, and columnist he focuses on Afghanistan, Islam, terrorism, and various National Security topics. For his work on Afghanistan Major Howk earned the Legion of Merit award for his years of exceptionally meritorious service as a Soldier-Statesman, and two Bronze Star Medals. He also earned the Afghanistan Governmental Success medal from the President of Afghanistan. Afghanistan ExperiencesSep 2002-Sep 2003 Sep-Nov 2003: Operations officer Coalition Task Force 82. Engineer Operations Officer on MG Vines General Staff at Bagram Airfield. Focus on engineer support to daily counter-terrorism operations across the country. His key effort was the completion of the FOB Salerno Airfield and Heliport in Khost province. Tactical and Operational level experiences in various Eastern Provinces.Nov 2002-Sep 2003: Aide De Camp to MG Karl Eikenberry as he took over as Chief of the Office of Military Cooperation-Afghanistan at the U.S. Embassy Kabul and also as the U.S. Security Coordinator. They worked daily with Afghan cabinet members across all parts of the government for the first year of the interim government and got to know all of them intimately. MG Eikenberry was tasked with implementing the international Security Sector Reform program in Afghanistan, and as Chief OMC-A creating the Afghan National Army and MOD from scratch. Their typical daily interactions included the leaders of UNAMA, NATO-Nation Embassies, ISAF, the 3-star US Forces Commander, CENTCOM, OSD, the Joint Staff, the Intelligence Community, regional ambassadors, the Special Forces leaders training the ANA, and the US Ambassador. For the majority of the year Jason was the sole note-taker in over 4,000 hours of meetings and the drafter of reports to State, OSD, and CENTCOM.2004-July 2007During an assignment in TRADOC Jason began to create and teach courses in the Army and at civilian institutions about Afghan and Islamic culture. He helped the Engineer School develop their Cultural, Counter-insurgency, and Counter-IED training for 2LTs deploying to Afghanistan and Iraq. During company command the Army selected Jason for the highly competitive Foreign Area Officer (FAO) program after completing a fellowship in Oman where he studied their insurgencies and how they rebuilt their nation after those conflicts. He continued to study Afghanistan and stayed in touch with his former boss LTG Karl Eikenberry who was the Combined Forces commander in Afghanistan.2007-2009 FAO TrainingIn FAO training he obtained a Master's Degree in South Asia and Middle East Security Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School in 2008. At NPS Jason focused on Afghanistan and the Oman counter-insurgency campaigns. He published a thesis on Oman's COIN and CT lessons which was distributed to his former bosses LTG Eikenberry, LTG McChrystal, and GEN Petraeus. He also wrote a directed study on the creation of the Afghan Military and the US Security Sector Reform efforts that was published as a monograph by the US Army War College in 2009 with a foreword by GEN McChrystal. That study was completed after many interviews with LTG Karl Eikenberry who was then assigned to NATO, just prior to his selection as Ambassador to Afghanistan.From 2008-2009 Jason attended Arabic language training at DLI until the day LTG McChrystal was nominated by President Obama to command ISAF. He was immediately ordered to the Pentagon to prepare LTG McChrystal for senate confirmation and to assist him when he took command in Kabul.2009-2010 As ADC to LTG McChrystal, Jason helped prepare him for his assignment and attended all meetings with Legislative and Executive branch leaders in Washington. Within hours of the Senate confirmation, they flew to Brussels to meet with NATO leaders and then onwards to Kabul Afghanistan. In Kabul Jason helped GEN McChrystal form trusting relationships with the same Afghan leaders Jason worked closely with when they first formed the government in 2002.For the next 2 months Jason traveled with GEN McChrystal to over half the provinces to listen to NATO and Afghan forces, and Afghan leaders to better understand the war. Jason assisted COMISAF during the strategic review of the U.S. and NATO Afghanistan policy, often quietly liaising between GEN McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry, his new and old bosses.After the strategic review was sent to CENTCOM Jason was selected to initiate and design the NATO interagency team focused on reintegration — i.e., how former insurgents could rejoin society. GEN McChrystal loaned Jason to support the incoming Reintegration Advisor who had worked on a similar mission in Iraq and would carry out sensitive diplomatic missions.As the Military Assistant and Political Advisor to retired British Lt Gen Sir Graeme Lamb. They worked with the Afghan government as they developed their peace and reintegration policy with foreign governments, diplomats, and international organizations. This also helped launch the US/NATO peace process and made Jason one of the insiders on Afghan peace talks for over a decade.2010-2014After a year in Dari (Afghan Farsi) language training at DLI, and graduation from the Army Command and General Staff College, Jason was assigned to the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Afghanistan and Pakistan Task Force. In that role, he led two of the highest-level interagency teams of Afghanistan and Pakistan experts in providing products and briefings for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and OSD leadership, and the White House. Also in that role, his teams helped prepare four different Generals to assume senior commands in Afghanistan. One of his team's key efforts was monitoring and helping U.S. leaders prepare for diplomatic negotiations with the Taliban.2015-2021After retiring in 2015, Jason continued his focus on Afghanistan and Islam as a professor at numerous institutes and continued to advise the U.S. and Afghan governments, and international bodies.From 2016 to 2017, he served as an advisor on the Presidential Transition Team's National Security cell focused on the Afghan peace process and foreign relations with Islamic nations. He contributed ideas to both the 2017 National Security Strategy and 2018 National Strategy for Counterterrorism.From 2017 onwards he served as an advisor on conflict resolution to the U.S. government, NATO member states, parts of the U.N., the Afghan President's NSC staff, and the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces leadership.Jason was invited to give presentations at the 2019 and 2020 Central and South Asia Military Intelligence conferences at U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). His topics included the future of the ANDSF, and the Unconventional Warfare efforts of Pakistan against Afghan and NATO forces.Jason led a USIP project team to assess post-conflict security in Afghanistan that culminated in a an invitation from the Afghan President and UN Chief in Kabul to give a presentation to over 70 nations at the 2020 U.N. Donor Conference on Afghanistan in Geneva.A second USIP project allowed his team to remain involved in the peace process until August 2021 as part of a U.S. Institute of Peace project authorized to conduct Track-2 diplomacy while talking to the Afghan government, various parts of Afghan society, and Taliban supporters.From 2019-2021 during both USIP projects his team took part in the USIP-led discussions that contributed to the congressionally-mandated Afghanistan Study Group Report. “A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan” was published in February 2021.August 2021 OnwardsAfter the collapse of the Afghan republic while Jason was virtually assisting the evacuation of at-risk Afghans from Kabul, he and his colleagues formed the Global Friends of Afghanistan non-profit (GFA) to speak and write about Afghanistan and ensure the topic of Afghanistan was not removed from the daily news, and to help Afghans raise their voices to the outside world. On 1 September 2022 GFA held their inaugural annual conference with Georgetown University to discuss the evacuation and resettlement of Afghans, and the humanitarian crisis and security collapse in Afghanistan. Writing ExperienceSummaryJason has written 5 books, was on the editing team of the FAO Association International Affairs Journal, and was the senior editor for A Voice for Two Nations blog. He has published over 225 articles, essays, and news reports in over 40 outlets. He is a mentor to writers and a member of the Military Writers Guild, where he edits and co-authors with new writers. Most recently he has begun publishing U.S. veterans and Afghan book authors at Tamarisk Press a niche publishing assistance non-profit. His work has been published in the following outlets: CNN, Fast Company, Foreign Policy, The National Interest, ClearanceJobs News, Military Times, The Cipher Brief, US Institute of Peace, The Global Observatory, Small Wars Journal, Divergent Options, From The Green Notebook, The Bridge, The Forge, The Foreign Service Journal, The FAOA Journal, Observer, Task&Purpose, Business Insider, Real Clear Defense and Politics, SOFX The Special Operations Forces Network, US Army War College, Naval Postgraduate School, O-Dark-Thirty, and in various Afghan newspapers like Reporterly, and Hasht e Subh. He also discusses Afghanistan, Terrorism, and Islam on CNN, Afghan International Persian, TRT World, and Voice of America, and appears on other news and radio outlets.Select Publications Books2012, Lions in the Path of Stability and Security: Oman's Response to Pressing Issues in the Middle East. My 2008 NPS thesis was published in Oman in Arabic.2017, The Quran: A Chronological Modern English Interpretation. Gold Medal Winner at the National Indie Excellence Awards2021, Leaders Always Go a Little Further: ...Unless They Trip. Foreword by LtGen Sir Graeme Lamb.2021, Ali's American Dream: An Iraqi Refugee's Story of Survival and Triumph. Foreword by SIV recipient Nasirullah Safi formerly of Afghanistan.2022, U.S. War Options in Afghanistan: Choose Your Own Path. Foreword by Afghan Colonel A. Rahman Rahmani, a would-be terrorist who was deradicalized and later flew special operations combat missions against the Taliban-Haqqani network and aided evacuation of Afghans Pilots in 2021. 2020-2022, Lead Editor of the Foreign Area Officer Association book, Culture Shock: Leadership Lessons from the Military's Diplomatic Corps. Foreword by LTG (Ret) Charles Hooper. Publishing advisor and book formatting for 4 books. 2021: Brand Elverston's Proclivity and Nasirullah Safi's Get the Terp Up Here!2022: Brand Elverston's Instruments of Ignorance and Nasirullah Safi's Indispensable: Tale of a Military Interpreter Various Studies (contributor and author/co-author)2009, US Strategy Review of US and NATO Afghanistan Policy, ISAF2009, A Case Study in Security Sector Reform: Learning from Security Sector Reform/Building in Afghanistan (October 2002-September 2003), US Army War College press2010 Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Programme, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan2021, “No Going Backward”: Afghanistan's Post–Peace Accord Security Sector, USIP2022, Afghan Women: “I Don't Feel Safe.” A Global Friends of Afghanistan survey report, GFA Select recent articles and columnsAug 2022, Afghanistan Has Become a Terrorist Paradise, The National InterestAug 2022, How Can We Help Afghanistan? Ask the Afghans, The National InterestMar 2022, Information Operations: How is Ukraine Different Than Afghanistan? ClearanceJobs NewsMar 2022, Lessons Learned from the Last 20 Years: 9 Flaws in the American Way of War, ClearanceJobsDec 2021, U.S. Foreign Affairs Influence and the Afghanistan Fallout for the U.S., ClearanceJobs NewsOct 2021, Why Afghan Peace Talks Got Derailed, ClearanceJobs NewsSep 2021, ‘You Are Fighting in the Wrong Country.' How We Failed Afghan Policy Miserably, The Pilot19 Aug 2021, Taliban Takeover in Kabul: Pakistani Invasion Complete in Afghanistan, ClearanceJobs9 Aug 2021, Where is the Taliban with the Doha Peace Process? ClearanceJobs NewsMay 2021, Terrorists Kill Around 90 Afghan Students: The World Shrugs, ClearanceJobs NewsApr 2021, Afghanistan Needs a Weaker President: Decentralizing power can be key to long-term peace, Foreign Policy, with Shabnam NasimiFeb 2021, Taliban Keep Showing True Colors with Mockery of the Doha Peace Process, ClearanceJobsJan 2021, Path to Peace in Afghanistan for the Biden Administration, ClearanceJobs NewsDec 2020, Time to Make the Taliban Diplomatically Uncomfortable, ClearanceJobs NewsFeb 2019, America, don't abandon Afghanistan…Again, CNN, with Abdul Rahman Rahmani
With Ukrainian forces surging over the border into Russian territory, On the Brink with Rosemary Armao talks about Putin, Zelensky, and winter coming to Kyiv with Ukraine-based American journalist Brian Bonner Brian Bonner has been a prominent figure in Ukraine's media scene for almost three decades. He became chief editor of the Kyiv Post in 2008 and worked as executive director from 2018 until 2021. Today he is involved with a number of Ukraine-oriented projects including The Cipher Brief and the Hromadske Radio podcast, “Ukraine Calling”.
In this episode of the State Secrets podcast, we're talking with Cipher Brief Expert, Nick Fishwick, a former senior member of the British Foreign Office, about his column in The Cipher Brief titled, “The Lights are Going Out all over Europe”. Fishwick is talking about Europe's relationship with Russia as it considers the possibility of war after Moscow's illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The decline of the relationship between Moscow and western governments which, until recently, still cooperated on issues ranging from counterterrorism to athletic competitions, is leading many in Europe to face the reality that war in Europe may be closer than they think.
This week on the Black Rifle Coffee Podcast Evan Hafer meets up with Former Green Beret and COO of the The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/ Socials @thecipherbrief
About the Lecture: Glenn Corn will provide a ground-level perspective of the current situation in Ukraine and discuss why it's important for the U.S. to support the Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion. About the Speaker: Glenn Corn is a 34-year veteran of the U.S. Intelligence and Foreign Affairs communities. Prof. Corn served for over 20 years abroad, including tours in Russia, Turkey, Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. He also held senior leadership positions within the Intelligence Community in the U.S. and is a graduate of multiple specialized training programs in the fields of Intelligence, Security, Adult Education and Training and Executive Leadership. He is a founding partner of the Strategic Advisory and Consulting firm “Varyag” and Expert contributor to the “Cipher Brief”. He has a master's degree in Russian Language and Literature from American University and a bachelor's degree in Russian Studies from Hofstra University, and he is also a graduate of the U.S. Army Russian Institute. He speaks Russian and Turkish.
The Cipher Brief made its first reporting trip to Ukraine in February of 2022. That's when we first met Tymofiy Mylovanov, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics. When we sat down with him then, Ukraine was preparing to mark one year since Russia's brutal invasion. Mylovanov was sober at the time about what it would take to win the war and rebuild the country. Just over a year later, with an aid package that has been held up for months in Washington - I sat down with him again to talk about what it will take to rebuild Ukraine even as the war rages on - and why he still has hope even amid the challenges – for what lies ahead.
This inaugural episode launches a new development in Ontic's podcast — The Center for Connected Intelligence (CCI) Debrief. Hosts Fred Burton, Chuck Randolph, and Dr. Marisa Randazzo unpack what they are hearing and seeing in the word of security. Enjoy an unfiltered conversation of their observations and invaluable insights from the past few weeks.Key topics of this discussion include:Risk Fatigue from the Global Permacrisis — As the global permacrisis looms overhead, Burton shares the importance of focusing on your specific threat landscape and avoiding the harmful effects of risk fatigue. Randazzo adds how easy it is to miss signals or dismiss things that aren't so immediate and how we need to support those on the front lines of the crisis.Threat of Disinformation and Misinformation — With the upcoming election cycle later in the year the threat of being misinformed through false headlines is imminent. Randolph shares insights from his recent discussion with Suzanne Kelly at the Cipher Brief on retraining our brains to dive deeper into what we read and always consider the source.Domestic Threat of Election Violence — Randazzo shares insights from her recent article on strategies to prepare organizations for presidential election disruption and Burton shares why evaluating the entire threat continuum is critical to identify individuals who may pose harm to a high profile figure or organization. Lately, this has resulted in an uptick in swatting incidents, and his conversation with Torchstone's Scott Stewart dives more into this topic.Reevaluate Business Continuity Practices — The hosts stress the importance of thinking through business continuity, what practices are in place, and if they are updated for the current threat landscape. They also share how informing employees of the security measures they are taking goes a long way in creating a culture of trust.The Impact of CA Senate Bill 553 — The law requiring most California employers (and employers who have a presence in California) to take steps to prevent and respond to workplace violence will go into effect July 1, 2024. Randazzo shares how important tracking and quickly accessing relevant data is as this order takes effect. For more information on this topic, check out Ontic's recent webinar: CA SB 553: What You Need to Know and How to Comply. She also discusses why companies must address the aftermath of incidents and the emotional strain on those impacted in light of her recent discussion with Wendy Bailey, Manager of Capital One's Threat Management Team.Stay tuned for the next CCI debrief and contact us at podcast@ontic.co if there are any questions or topics you would like the team to address.
Former CIA officials Kristin Wood and Martin Petersen built a Red Cell project on The Cipher Brief to challenge experts to explore how China came to supplant the US by 2041.Follow Jeff Stein on Twitter:https://twitter.com/SpyTalkerFollow SpyTalk on Twitter:https://twitter.com/talk_spySubscribe to SpyTalk on Substackhttps://www.spytalk.co/Take our listener survey where you can give us feedback.http://survey.podtrac.com/start-survey.aspx?pubid=BffJOlI7qQcF&ver=short Follow Jeff Stein on Twitter:https://twitter.com/SpyTalkerFollow SpyTalk on Twitter:https://twitter.com/talk_spySubscribe to SpyTalk on Substackhttps://www.spytalk.co/Take our listener survey where you can give us feedback.http://survey.podtrac.com/start-survey.aspx?pubid=BffJOlI7qQcF&ver=short
As a former CNN Intelligence Correspondent and Executive Producer, Suzanne Kelly knows better than to trust every headline that she reads online. However, with the rise of AI-generated images and disinformation, it's critical to take an informed approach to what we read – taking into account where it comes from and why it's being shared. The Cipher Brief addresses this threat by bringing together the expertise of the public and private sectors to provide stronger national security for all. Founded by Kelly in 2015, it is a national security-focused media organization that takes a firm stance on providing clear, accurate, and trusted information. Kelly is also the founder of The Cyber Initiatives Group and produces The Cipher Brief's Annual Threat Conference. Follow her on LinkedIn.Key topics of Kelly's discussion with host Chuck Randolph include:Why the private sector has shifted over time to take on a pivotal role in geopolitics, shape the way information is shared, and influence the speed of innovation.The rising threat of misinformation and disinformation and what security leaders can do to encourage sharing informed, accurate information and avoid chasing down false threats.Why Kelly is driven to bring insights to the forefront and help people solve geopolitical problems impacting their business.Key takeaways:03:43: Suzanne Kelly - I felt like the private sector was not only impacted by what was happening around the world but serves as the backbone of the US economy which is really a humongous component of national security. I've been really interested since February 2022 and the months preceding the Russian invasion of Ukraine — looking at the private sector's role there as well as the significant shift in how the world is dealing with geopolitical events like this war. Watching how the private sector came into that arena and started sharing technologies in ways that didn't always go through layers of government bureaucracy has spoken to the speed of innovation in the private sector.09:56: Chuck - How should leaders think about misinformation and disinformation? Our job is to enable decision-makers, so how do we critically look at the news that's coming to us today and make sure that our bosses aren't succumbing to bias or false information?10:40: Suzanne Kelly - Disinformation and misinformation is an incredibly risky threat to the United States. Obviously, it spreads beyond the borders but just what we've seen with elections and rhetoric and emotion and how outside entities can take a single bit of truth from something and then weave a web of lies around it. And then drop that into social media feeds and other places where Americans are so conditioned to get information at their fingertips to make snap decisions to reshare things. We need to become a nation of critical thinkers that quickly discern where a source is coming from if it's a credible place and if the organization that they're reading from names sources or if they're anonymous - why? I think having a country that is full of critical thinkers is going to be a lot better for our future than having a country of people inclined to believe a headline.
Alan Kohler spent 27 years at the FBI, where his priority for decades, was hunting down spies who were operating in the United States. As Assistant Director of the Bureau's Counterintelligence Division, Kohler had a hand in nearly every espionage operation the Bureau conducted. He also served as Acting Executive Assistant Director of the National Security Branch and was Special Agent in Charge of the Washington Field Office's Counterintelligence Division before he retired last year and joined The Cipher Brief's Expert Network. He is also President of Pamir Consulting. State Secrets sat down with Kohler to uncover some of the highlights of the cases he was involved in that made national and global headlines. In his first podcast interview, we also talked about why espionage and elections are still very top-of-mind for him – particularly when it comes to Russia and China.
Intelligence analysis is a tricky job, and failure can have devastating consequences. Since the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel, this issue has become more acute as experts wonder how Hamas was able to manage such a sophisticated operation undetected by Israeli intelligence. But this is not the only example of intelligence failure. In this week's episode, we are joined once again by the former Acting Director of the CIA, John McLaughlin, to discuss the difficulties of intel collection and analysis—and how addressing these challenges requires both fighting and embracing human nature.To read more about historical examples of intelligence failure and how they may apply to the situation in Israel, check out Prof. McLaughlin's recent article in The Cipher Brief:https://www.thecipherbrief.com/why-did-israeli-intelligence-fail-history-suggests-many-causes
Summary Jorhena Thomas (LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss her career as an analyst and passion for intelligence education. Jorhena spent 8 years in the FBI as an Intelligence Analyst. What You'll Learn Intelligence What makes a great analyst Her thoughts on the “Intelligence Cycle” The Robert Levinson case How the FBI adapted after 9/11 Reflections Teamwork and collaboration The importance of education Episode Notes Andrew is joined by Jorhena Thomas: educator, mentor, and analysis extraordinaire. It was a pleasure to have Jorhena in the studio to discuss to her career, which began at the Federal Bureau of Investigation where she served as an intelligence analyst for 8 years. She moved on to work at the Washington D.C. Fusion Center, the District of Columbia Deputy Mayor's Office, and in private consulting. She currently lectures at both American University and Georgetown University, and serves as the Director of Mentorship and Professional Advancement at Girl Security. And… Women make up 59% (more than half!) of the FBI's Intelligence Analysis workforce. This has come along way since the first female FBI special agents, Joanna Pierce Misko and Susan Roley Malone, were hired in 1972. However, the work is not done. SpyCast is proud to highlight Jorhena's work with Girl Security, supporting, mentoring, and training the next generations of women in intelligence. Quotes of the Week “All my time with the FBI really gave me an appreciation for partnerships, and understanding everyone has a role to play. And if you respect what they do and they respect what you do, then you can really get some good work done. And I think sometimes people look down on others who don't do what they do. And my attitude is, if they did what you do, then you don't need to be here” – Jorhena Thomas Resources SURFACE SKIM *SpyCasts* The Counterintelligence Chief with FBI Assistant Director Alan Kohler (2023) SPY CHIEFS: From Navy Analyst to State Dept. Intelligence Chief – Ellen McCarthy's Journey (Part 1 of 2) (2022) SPY CHIEFS: From Navy Analyst to State Dept. Intelligence Chief – Ellen McCarthy's Journey (Part 2 of 2) (2022) My Global Career as a Female FBI Agent with Kathy Stearman (2021) Special Operations, FBI, NSC, et al – Serial Collaborator Karen Schaefer (2021) *Beginner Resources* What is Intelligence Analysis and Why is It So Important?, National American University (2020) [Short article] FBI Field Intelligence Groups and Fusion Centers, Department of Homeland Security (n.d.) [Fact sheet] What is The Intelligence Cycle?, SOCRadar (2022) [Short article] DEEPER DIVE Books How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence, D. Omand (Penguin, 2020) Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, R. J. Heuer (Echo Point, 2017) Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis & National Security, T. Fingar (SUP, 2011) The FBI: A History, R. Jefferys-Jones (Yale, 2007) Articles How to Think Like an Intelligence Analyst, Z. T. Brown, Medium (2021) 9/11 and the Reinvention of the Us Intelligence Community, E. Kamarck, The Brooking Institution (2021) No body, no burial, no peace for Iran hostage Bob Levinson's family, J. G. Meek & C. Finnegan, ABC News (2021) Getting from Awareness to Action on Disinformation, J. Thomas, The Cipher Brief (2020) Tabletop Exercises to Combat Disinformation, J. Thomas, Medium (2020) How the FBI Reinvented Itself After 9/11, C. Nobel, Harvard Business School (2016) Video Adding Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion to National and Homeland Security, Education, Intelligence, and Fusion Centers (2023) Women FBI Agents: In Their Own Words, FBI (2012) Primary Sources FBI Washington Field Office Statement on the 16th Anniversary of the Abduction of Robert A. Levinson, FBI Washington (2023) The Internal Effects of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Reprioritization, Office of the Inspector General (2004) United States Patriot Act (2001)
We're letting a secret out of the bag this week. The Cipher Brief traveled to Kyiv to host The Kyiv Economic & Security Forum on the eve of Ukraine's counteroffensive. Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly, COO Brad Christian and a group of national security professionals traveled in and out of the country with Cipher Brief Expert Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.) who – as former director of CIA and former head of five combat commands has a unique perspective on the counteroffensive. Today, he's a partner at KKR, where he also chairs the firm's global institute. That means that his perspective on this war – and the aftermath is incredibly unique. He not only is looking at the immediate combat strategy – but also at the aftermath and the ability for Ukraine to attract global investors to help it rebuild.
In today's report we've got a number of stories related to the Ukraine war, President Biden's ongoing visit to Poland and Russian activities in the area. We're following news that Russia conducted a failed ICBM test during the time that Biden was in Ukraine. This comes as China's top diplomat Wang Yi is in Russia for a visit where he underscored that relations between Russian and China are ‘rock solid', a sentiment echoed by Vladimir Putin who added that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia in the near future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says his forces are holding their defensive positions in the face of constant Russian attempts to break thru, attempts that Zelenskiy says are resulting in ‘staggering' losses for the Russian military. The Netherlands and Belgium say they are tracking a Russian spy ship in their waters, while further east, Australian and US officials announce plans to begin joint maritime patrol operations with the Philippines. This comes less than two weeks since the latest incident involving a Philippine Coast Guard Vessel and a Chinese Maritime Vessel. There is a lot packed into today's full report. Let's dive in now on a few of the major stories.