Podcasts about Deterrence

CAPTION; 1800 KREMLINDeterrence and Covert Diplomacy: Analyzing CIA Trip to Moscow and the North Korean AllianceJohn Hardie analyzes CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unexpected visit to Moscow. Speculation suggests the trip aimed to deter Russian sabotage against NATO, push for a diplomatic settlement in Ukraine, and pressure Moscow to limit support for Iran. Although Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains convinced of victory and resistant to compromises, maintaining deterrence remains critical. Simultaneously, military intelligence reports that North Korea has supplied dozens of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, with thousands of combat troops potentially deployed, further complicating the global security landscape. (7)

Caption: 1521 PERSIATONIGHT CONTENTS THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW 8-31-2026Tehran Under Siege: Sanctions, War Fatigue, and the Credibility Crisis of the UNEdmund Fitton-Brown details the bleak economic reality for citizens in Tehran living under severe economic sanctions and a low-intensity conflict. Ordinary residents are reduced to driving for ride-sharing apps like Snapp and begging for food due to skyrocketing prices of staple goods like yogurt. While the regime's elite remain insulated, sanctions have severely strained the general population without driving systemic behavior changes. Furthermore, the discussion examines the declining global credibility of the United Nations. The organization has abandoned its neutrality by focusing excessively on targeting Israel and prioritizing humanitarian relief, which frequently ends up diverted to empower oppressive regimes. (1)Demographic Doom: How the One-Child Legacy and Youth Cynicism Threaten China's FuturePiero Tozzi explores China's severe demographic crisis resulting from the legacy of the totalitarian one-child policy enacted in 1979 and officially lifted in 2015. Despite transitioning to a three-child policy, fertility rates continue to plummet due to youth disillusionment. The gender imbalance has catalyzed widespread female trafficking from neighboring countries, while a high proportion of single-child soldiers in the military creates unique domestic vulnerabilities in conflict scenarios. Young Chinese citizens are increasingly opting out of intense economic exploitation through passive resistance movements like "laying flat" and "letting it rot," directly challenging propaganda regarding national rejuvenation. (2)The Domestic Surge: AI Infrastructure, Aerospace Recovery, and US Manufacturing RenaissanceAlan Tonelson highlights the significant manufacturing revival currently taking place in the United States, driven by key sectors like aerospace and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Boeing's resolution of safety and production issues has revitalized aerospace, while a massive buildout of AI data centers has boosted demand for semiconductors, steel, and electronic equipment. Although trade tensions with Canada persist, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement protects most trade, rendering short-term disruptions minimal. Furthermore, while widespread local protests against data centers have emerged across various states, they have not yet slowed down the overall rapid pace of construction. (3)Middle East Realignment: Iranian Devaluation, Turkish Expansion, and Mediterranean Defense PartnershipsMalcolm Hoenlein covers shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics across the Middle East. Inside Iran, severe inflation, food shortages, and medicine price hikes are suffocating the middle class, prompting harsher internal crackdowns by the regime. Meanwhile, Omani channel shipping flows have partially improved following US-led mine sweeping efforts. In Syria, Turkey is pursuing a quiet military takeover, a move contested by Israel. Additionally, Saudi Arabia is utilizing pipelines to bypass shipping threats, and Finland has joined other nations in defunding the corrupt Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA. Finally, Greece and Israel have solidified a historic $3.5 billion multi-level defense agreement. (4)Cult of Rebellion: Understanding the Resilient and Hostile Ideology of the HouthisEdmund Fitton-Brown chronicles the history, structure, and ideological motivations of the Houthi movement in Yemen. Emerging in the mid-1990s as a Zaydi revivalist cult modeled after Lebanese Hezbollah, the group adopted a highly hostile five-part slogan ("the scream") emphasizing anti-American, anti-Semitic, and anti-Israel vitriol. Over decades of conflict, they waged multiple rebellions against former dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh before forming a tactical alliance with him to seize power. Known as relentless fighters who are always up for a battle, the Houthis harbor expansive territorial ambitions in southern Saudi Arabia, aiming to control the holy sites of Mecca and Medina. (5)Tehran in Limbo: Evaluating Sanctions, Bureaucratic Alienation, and Paths to Regime ChangeJanatyn Sayeh addresses the psychological state of "no war, no peace" in Tehran a year after the September 2025 conflict. The population faces deep war fatigue, compounded by blockades and new sanctions. While sanctions alone cannot topple the regime, they successfully alienate key socio-economic groups. Specifically, lower-level administrative bureaucrats and ideologues are losing their financial incentives and faith in the regime's competence. True systemic change will not happen overnight, but dragging out the process and bringing civil unrest into urban streets could break pro-regime morale and dismantle the kleptocratic elite's hold on power. (6)Deterrence and Covert Diplomacy: Analyzing CIA Trip to Moscow and the North Korean AllianceJohn Hardie analyzes CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unexpected visit to Moscow. Speculation suggests the trip aimed to deter Russian sabotage against NATO, push for a diplomatic settlement in Ukraine, and pressure Moscow to limit support for Iran. Although Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains convinced of victory and resistant to compromises, maintaining deterrence remains critical. Simultaneously, military intelligence reports that North Korea has supplied dozens of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, with thousands of combat troops potentially deployed, further complicating the global security landscape. (7)A Shift in Rules: IDF's Aggressive Gaza Targeting, Tunnel Demolition, and West Bank Air PowerSamuel Ben-Ur highlights a shift in Israeli military operations. Following a ceasefire, the IDF returned to pre-agreement rules by striking an active Hamas militant at a Gaza bakery. The military has destroyed roughly half of Gaza's tunnels, with operations continuing on the Hamas-controlled side. Additionally, Israel executed a rare West Bank airstrike to eliminate Kais Betawi, a high-value financial and military operative, signaling strength ahead of upcoming elections. Finally, the discussion outlines the total exclusion of the heavily compromised UNRWA from future Gaza recovery efforts, noting that the United States and Israel will sideline the agency entirely. (8)Higher Education in Crisis: Rising Debt, STEM Brain Drain, and Political PolarizationTom Katsouleas critiques the declining public trust and degrees in American higher education despite high spending. Driven by cost, value, and inclusion issues, students face massive debts that delay major life milestones like marriage and housing. Public universities have increased tuition to compensate for shrinking state budgets, while investing in luxury facilities and high-end services. In graduate education, US research programs depend heavily on international students—primarily from China—for STEM fields. However, rising immigration hostility and aggressive geopolitical competition are reversing this brain drain, while perceived progressive bias further polarizes public trust. (9)The Strategic Vanguard: Hezbollah's Regional Reach, Ceasefire Probing, and Lebanese Shia PoliticsDavid Daoud outlines the strategic dynamics of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is currently launching pinprick probing attacks to test Israel's rules of engagement under ceasefire constraints and US pressure. Within Lebanesepolitics, the Shia community remains structured around a symbiotic relationship between the nationalist Amal movement and Hezbollah, preventing any independent Shia opposition from gaining ground. Beyond Lebanon, Hezbollah acts as the tip of the spear for Iranian expansionism, training regional proxies in rocket, tunnel, and propaganda warfare. This veteran, transnational expertise makes Hezbollah an indispensable regional asset that Iran would find impossible to replace. (10)The Silent Drip: Structural Remedies for America's $40 Trillion Debt CrisisThomas Savidge addresses the economic implications of the United States crossing the $40 trillion national debt threshold, fueled by pandemic spending and mandatory entitlements. This massive debt competes with private capital, driving up consumer borrowing rates and depressing real wages through inflation. To halt this slow economic drip, Savidge proposes a "fiscal constitution." This includes strong constitutional amendments, Colorado-style spending caps tied to population growth and inflation, a silent-approval budget commission to enact spending cuts, and strict regulatory limits on the scope of government authority to prevent accounting tricks. (11)

Nuclear guardrails are gone, and no one in power seems to care. In Part One of a conversation with Barry Stevens and Globe and Mail columnist Doug Saunders, Lloyd Axworthy — the former Canadian Foreign Minister who led the campaign to ban landmines — traces how the memory of nuclear danger has faded even as more countries foolishly flirt with joining the club. Deterrence, once treated as gospel, has been quietly disproven on real battlefields, yet nobody in power seems to have noticed. Axworthy warns of a world sliding back toward the bomb just as it forgets why it feared one.This interview was conducted in collaboration with How To Rule The World https://www.youtube.com/@WorldFederalism and Project Save the World https://tosavetheworld.ca/ — it also appears on those channels.

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Ralph Friedman is the most decorated detective in NYPD history — with 2,000 on-duty arrests, 5,000 additional assists, and 219 awards — and in this episode of Locked In with Ian Bick, he finally tells the complete truth about what policing in New York City's most dangerous precincts really looked like from the inside during the most violent and most lawless era available. Stationed at the South Bronx's notorious 41st Precinct — known as Fort Apache — he served during one of New York City's most dire periods, recording 2,000 on-duty arrests, 5,000 additional assists, and 15 shootings — four of them fatal — before a rookie in a radio patrol car T-boned his passenger door at high speed on August 1, 1983, leaving him with 23 broken bones including a pelvis broken in four places and a shattered hip that forced him into medical retirement at 34. He shares what the Bronx streets in the 70s and 80s really required of the officers working them, what criminals putting hits on him actually involved, the worst things he ever saw on the job, and what the stories from a career that produced the most decorated record in NYPD history actually sound like from the detective who lived every one of them. _____________________________________________ #NYPD #cops #truecrimestories #police _____________________________________________ Thank you to AG1 & HUNGRYROOT for sponsoring this episode: AG1: For a limited time, save 20% on your first subscription order of AG1 Next Gen or AG1 Pro at https://drinkag1.com/lockedin _____________________________________________ Hungryroot: Explore my Hungryroot Digital Cookbook "The Commissary Upgrade" at https://hungryroot.com/LOCKEDIN _____________________________________________  Connect with Ralph Friedman: https://www.bronxstreetwarrior.com/ _____________________________________________ Hosted, Executive Produced & Edited By Ian Bick: https://www.instagram.com/ian_bick/?hl=en https://ianbick.com/  _____________________________________________ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Detective Ralph Friedman 00:22 Reflections on a Legendary Career 01:08 How He Became a Cop 03:25 First Day in the Bronx 04:34 An Officer's Gear in the 1970s 06:16 The Mental Toll of Policing 07:47 Public Respect and Deterrence 10:00 Case: Stopping a Justifiable Homicide 12:53 Public Sentiment Today vs. Back Then 15:08 First Arrest and Early Impressions 17:04 Specialization and the Black Liberation Army 19:34 Daily Danger and Chaos 22:40 Corruption and the Knapp Commission 24:16 A Rookie's Brush with Corruption 27:43 Changing Views on Women in Policing 29:57 Path to Detective 33:05 Plainclothes Work and Tactics 35:31 Shootout in the South Bronx 41:17 Aftermath of a Shooting 43:31 Close Calls and Street Survival Tips 47:20 Quirky Emergency Service Stories 51:03 Old School vs. Modern Training 53:52 Detective Work and Arrests 58:40 A Typical Day as a Detective 01:02:32 Taking Down a Gun and Grenade Cache 01:05:05 Reputation and Informants 01:07:55 Riding with Friends and a Street Crew 01:12:40 The Worst Call of His Career 01:14:40 When the System Fails 01:16:51 Fitting In with the Squad 01:18:04 Off-Duty Life and Arrests 01:21:28 The Attempt on His Life 01:27:07 A Date with an Assassin 01:29:25 The Trap Unfortunately Foiled 01:30:42 The Emotional Weight of Taking Lives 01:32:28 Respect eroding in Society 01:35:10 Detective Ranks Explained 01:38:41 Handling Bosses and Paperwork 01:40:41 The Frances Tavern Case That Haunts Him 01:45:40 Fighting Layoffs 01:48:41 The Accident That Ended It All 01:53:20 Recovery and the Next Chapter 01:58:40 Life Advice from a Legend 02:00:00 Final Thoughts and Thanks _____________________________________________ To advertise on the show, contact sales@advertisecast.com or visit https://advertising.libsyn.com/LockedInWithIanBicka

Silicon Bites Ep388 | 2026-08-21 | Something big is happening. NATO filled the Baltic sky this week with aviation assets – what does it mean? These are extraordinary movements of NATO aircraft in the Baltics. Do they constitute exercises, or something more? Deterrence, or moves to counter specific threats from Russia. The debate rages around why Putin may attack or provoke NATO specifically in Europe. Putin's main aims: subjugate Ukraine, destroy the credibility and cohesion of NATO and the EU, and erode the global power and authority of the US. He needs a major provocation to achieve any of these objectives. Of course, he's counting on us to flinch – but if that doesn't work, would he go fully ‘kinetic' and hostile? This episode argues, he already has. ----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.org----------SOURCES:----------

As competition in space intensifies, how can the United States deter aggression and defend its vital space assets? In this episode of NucleCast, Chris Stone explores the evolving role of deception in space warfare and its potential to transform space deterrence strategies.Drawing on lessons from military history and current geopolitical realities, Stone examines why understanding an adversary's strategic culture and worldview is essential for effective deterrence. He discusses the growing challenges of protecting satellites, the vulnerabilities of space systems, and how innovative approaches such as decoys, fake satellites, and maneuver warfare could complicate enemy targeting and strengthen U.S. space security.The conversation also dives into Chinese and Russian approaches to space conflict, the future of space defense operations, and why active defense and deception may become indispensable tools for maintaining strategic advantage in an increasingly contested domain.Follow us on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@nuclecast3665?si=h1kCO6NqUtL87w6qFollow on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/nuclecastpodcastSubscribe RSS Feed: https://rss.com/podcasts/nuclecast-podcast/Rate: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nuclecast/id1644921278Email comments and topic/guest suggestions to Kimberly@anwadeter.org

Latvia is home to Canada's largest overseas military deployment, with more than 2,000 members of the Canadian Armed Forces serving on NATO's eastern flank.Why are Canadians there? Why should Canadians care?As Russia's war against Ukraine continues into another year the world has become more dangerous, more divided, and less predictable. In response, Canada has made one of its most significant international military commitments in decades. Through Operation REASSURANCE, Canadian soldiers are leading NATO's multinational brigade in Latvia, working alongside allies to strengthen collective defence and deter aggression.This week Lieutenant-Colonel Joel Maley, Acting Commander of Task Force Latvia, joins MLI's Christopher Coates on Inside Policy Talks.

The mutual defense pact signed between the regional Muslim powers comes against the backdrop of the Iran war, which has hurt Gulf countries more than any others.Saudi Arabia's oil sales have plummeted. Its energy infrastructure is badly damaged. It hopes Turkey and Pakistan's help will deter further attacks from the Iran-backed Houthis as well. Iran scholar Hamidreza Azizi discusses what the pact means for Tehran and the region.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to “Nuclear bombs and bots”, the first episode of our second series! Hosted by the ELN's Deputy Executive Director, Bekki Field, this episode explores the relationship between new “disruptive” technologies and nuclear weapons. To start the episode, Bekki is joined by Edan Simpson, ELN Project and Communications Officer, and Julia Berghofer, Head of the ELN's Nuclear and New Technologies programme, to break down what a “new technology” actually is, and why they matter for nuclear weapons policy. Edan's “How To Fix It” panel features Younger Generation Leaders Network (YGLN) members Alice Saltini and Ksenija Trajkovska; Alice is a former ELN Policy Fellow, where she spearheaded our research projects in nuclear and new technologies. Nowadays, she is the Senior Research Lead at the Rhode Island School of Design and a Non-Resident Expert on AI at the James Martin Centre for Non-Proliferation Studies; Ksenija Trajkovska is a Senior OSINT & CBRN Analyst at Fenix Insight and an incoming Research Analyst at Open Nuclear Network. We ask our panel:  Whether we focus so much on the risks posed by emerging technologies that we ignore their potential benefits to nuclear weapons systems? And how important is training for military personnel to recognise and challenge the biases that can evolve from an increasing use of AI in military systems?   Moving on to “Turn Back the Clock”, where we look at how new technologies have historically affected nuclear weapons, Bekki is joined by Alexandra Bell, a YGLN alumnus, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Affairs in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability (ADS) at the U.S. Department of State, and the President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Bekki and Alex discuss the history of these technological advancements, how technology changes threa perceptions, and how equipped the expert community is to cope with the pace of technological change. Finally, as always, the episode wraps up with “The Debrief,” where Bekki, Edan and Julie review everything they've covered. Catch up on previous episodes and make sure to subscribe to future episodes of “Ok Doomer!” Referenced in the podcast: The AI lens of cognitive warfare: Why LLMs language bias is a security risk by Ihor Samokhodskyi

The idea of crime and punishment dates back to the earliest societies.  As societies have evolved, so too have punishments, transitioning from overt, public forms of discipline to more discrete methods.    Whether it be public floggings and executions or the security cameras in your grocery store, fear of punishment and deterrence has been the main tool to encourage citizens to follow the law. Learn more about the spectacle of punishment and deterrence on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Shop the store at Shop.Everything-Everywhere.com Sponsors Hexclad Get 10% off your order at hexclad.com/DAILY Mint Mobile Save 50% on Unlimited premium wireless plans starting at $15/month at MintMobile.com/EED Quince Go to quince.com/daily for 365-day returns, plus free shipping on your order! DripDrop Go to dripdrop.com and use promo code EVERYTHING for 20% off your first order! Square Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at square.com/go/daily Horizon3 Go to horizon3.ai/everything and request your free NodeZero demo Babbel Go to babbel.com/daily for up to 60% off Subscribe to the podcast!  https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/ -------------------------------- Executive Producer: Charles Daniel Associate Producers: Austin Oetken & Cameron Kieffer   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere Discord Server: https://discord.gg/Ds7Rx7jvPJ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/everythingeverywheredaily Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/  Disce aliquid novi cotidie Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mary Kissel analyzes the "stuck" state of global diplomacy, arguing that China and Russia are actively judging the strength of U.S. deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine. She disputes the idea that China is a neutral bystander, noting that Beijing benefits from Russian energy, Iranian markets, and the depletion of U.S. military assets like Patriotmissiles. Kissel asserts that the "merging" of the wars in Ukraine and Iran actually happened years ago through long-standing regime cooperation. She warns that a "halfway house" deal with Iran would only grant the regime more leverage and threaten European population centers with ballistic missiles. NATO must recognize a "condominium of countries"—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—that are aligning against Western security. Kissel emphasizes that these regimes' interference in U.S. domestic politics is a strategic tool used to promote their own ends. (9)

Thirty years ago, the People's Republic of China ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Since then, Beijing has frequently invoked UNCLOS to support its maritime claims and legal positions, while advancing interpretations of the Convention that many other states –but not all – reject.  This June the China Institute for Marine Affairs under the Ministry of Natural Resources marked the 30-year anniversary with an extensive report providing Beijing's interpretation of UNCLOS, including its account of the 2016 arbitral award that found China's expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea as lacking a legal basis under the Convention.  To examine the PRC's evolving interpretation of UNCLOS and Chinese maritime activities, and how both are being used to advance Chinese interests, I'm joined today by Dr. Peter Dutton. Peter is a Senior Research Scholar in law and senior fellow in the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. Previously, he held several positions at the U.S. Naval War College, including as director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. He served in the US Navy for more than 40 years in several capacities, including as a Judge Advocate and naval flight officer.   Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [01:45] UNCLOS and China's Approach to International Law   [04:48] Favorable Interpretations of UNCLOS for China  [07:07] Unpacking Wu Shicun's Comments on Future Construction  [10:47] Capitalizing versus Defending Interests  [16:56] Potential Deterrence Options for the US and Allies  [19:14] Renegotiating the Law of the Sea Convention?   [22:45] Updated Arguments to the 2016 Ruling   [25:50] China's Strategy and Relying on Power  [29:03] Indicators and Actions to Watch For   

"Institutionalization is the necessary framework that keeps our facilities and society safe. It is the process of instilling order, routine, and structure. By removing unpredictable variables, we establish a secure environment where compliance is heavily reinforced, and operational stability is successfully maintained."On this episode of The Thomas FreeMe Show, we are tearing down the sanitized public-relations narrative of the security sector. Drawing on 13 years of lived experience fighting the federal machine, Thomas exposes "institutionalization" for what it truly is: a calculated system of behavioral manipulation and dependency that begins long before anyone ever reaches a prison gate.From the school-to-prison pipeline to the compliance-heavy structures of the welfare system, this episode breaks down how massive bureaucracies condition individuals for pacification rather than preparation. We explore the state's transactional definition of liberty, examine the penitentiary as a visible "Theater of Deterrence," and shatter the illusion that obedience inside a cage translates to success outside of it.Tune in to discover what it takes to reclaim your executive functioning, untangle yourself from systemic control, and build true autonomy. The system wants you dependent and predictable. It is time to question the boundaries of the box you are standing in and refuse to let them institutionalize your mind.

In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim examine Europe's growing drive to strengthen its own deterrent capabilities amid Russia's war in Ukraine and a future NATO 3.0. They explore whether Europe is moving toward greater strategic autonomy while remaining anchored within the NATO alliance. The discussion highlights Europe's emerging missile renaissance, including the development of new long-range strike capabilities, expanded defense industrial capacity, and investments in advanced non-nuclear military technologies. The conversation further examines how U.S. military innovation—including low-cost, high-precision weapons, and long-range conventional strike capabilities—is reshaping the American character of modern warfare. As allies reassess the relationship between conventional and nuclear deterrence, the hosts explore the implications for escalation management, strategic stability, and the credibility of deterrence in an increasingly complex and contested security environment. https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Peter Huessy explains "extended deterrence," the U.S. nuclear umbrella protecting allies from aggression. Huessy critiques a proposal to delegate nuclear authority to a "three-key" system involving France and the UK, arguing it would create dangerous indecision during a crisis. He notes that allies increasingly doubt U.S. resolve. Strategy has shifted toward "counterforce" targets, aiming to disable an enemy's leadership and military capability rather than destroying cities, to provide "flexible response" options. (11)1900

In this episode of The NIDS View, NIDS welcomes Curtis McGiffin and Dr. Adam Lowther, co-authors of Learning to Love the Bomb: Understanding the American Nuclear Arsenal, for a wide-ranging discussion on the history, science, strategy, and people behind the U.S. nuclear enterprise. Drawing on the expertise of leading deterrence professionals, they explain why a deeper understanding of America's nuclear arsenal is essential for policymakers, military leaders, and citizens alike. The conversation explores the motivations for writing the book, the operational realities of the U.S. nuclear enterprise, and the evolving strategic challenges posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. McGiffin and Lowther also discuss the role of physics and history in shaping deterrence theory, the importance of strategic stability, and how bridging technical, policy, and military perspectives can strengthen deterrence in an increasingly dangerous world. Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction to the Book and Its Impact 03:07 – Why Write Learning to Love the Bomb? 06:20 – Understanding the Nuclear Enterprise and Its Components 11:40 – Expert Contributions and Their Significance 15:28 – The Physics of Nuclear Weapons Explained 23:42 – Strategic Threats and the Future of Deterrence 27:51 – Recommendations and Strategic Outlook 37:30 – Reflections on the Book's Contributions and Audience Where to purchase the book: https://www.cambriapress.com/pub.cfm?bid=1207 https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Love-Bomb-Understanding-American/dp/1638573964

In this episode of NucleCast, Adam sits down with Paul Amato for an in-depth discussion on the role of theater nuclear weapons in maintaining U.S. deterrence and strategic stability. Drawing on historical lessons from the Cold War and examining today's evolving security environment, they explore why low-yield nuclear capabilities remain an important component of U.S. defense strategy.The conversation examines Russian and Chinese nuclear approaches, the development of low-yield nuclear options in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, and the operational realities of deploying and sustaining theater nuclear forces. Amato explains how capability diversity, alliance assurance, and extended deterrence contribute to strategic stability and why maintaining credible options across the escalation spectrum is critical to deterring adversaries.They also discuss common misconceptions about low-yield weapons, the importance of capability symmetry, and what the future nuclear force structure may require as global threats continue to evolve.Paul Amato is the Principal Advisor for Strategic and Nuclear Deterrence at CNA. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. From 2016-2025, Amato was director of nuclear deterrence policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he and his team led all facets of nuclear deterrence policy development, implementation and allied extended deterrence, including overseeing development and implementation of both the 2018 and 2022 Nuclear Posture Reviews. His experience includes more than a decade as an attorney in private practice, and over twenty-eight years of active and reserve service in the US Marine Corps. Amato is a graduate of Franklin & Marshall College and the University of Pittsburgh School of Law. The views he expresses in this podcast are his own. Follow us on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@nuclecast3665?si=h1kCO6NqUtL87w6qFollow on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/nuclecastpodcastSubscribe RSS Feed: https://rss.com/podcasts/nuclecast-podcast/Rate: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nuclecast/id1644921278Email comments and topic/guest suggestions to Kimberly@anwadeter.org

Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, NATO's European members have had to adjust to and navigate the new U.S. approach to defense, with the withdrawal of troops from Europe, decreased military support for Ukraine, and changing attitudes toward European security overall. Given the United States' volatile relationships with its allies, how can European capitals reorganize and restructure among themselves? What role will the United States play in the alliance in future, and how will NATO address the Russian threat?

Truth Be Told with Booker Scott – Iran's nuclear ambitions test American resolve as leaders weigh deterrence, inspections, military pressure, and the limits of negotiation. The argument rejects nation-building, warns against strategic weakness, and calls for clear objectives, sustained leverage, and decisive action to prevent Tehran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon...

Headline: Pacific Watch: High Swells and Beach Controversies in San Diego Guest: Jeff Bliss Jeff Bliss reports from Sail Bay, San Diego, discussing the arrival of massive 30-foot El Niño swells. The conversation covers local beach controversies regarding yoga permits, the upscale enclave of Laguna Beach, and an unusual early-season arson fire in the nearby hills. (1)Headline: Las Vegas Sports Expansion and the "Secret Menu" at In-N-Out Guest: Jeff Bliss Bliss discusses the potential for an NBA team in Las Vegas, possibly named the "Las Vegas Jacks." He also highlights the famous In-N-Out "secret menu," explaining "animal style" burgers and fries. Seattle remains a top contender for a returning NBAfranchise alongside Las Vegas. (2)Headline: The Myth of Birthright Citizenship and the 14th Amendment Guest: Richard Epstein Professor Richard Epstein analyzes birthright citizenship, arguing the 14th Amendment's original intent excluded foreigners. He critiques the concept of "tourist babies" and suggests the president's plenary naturalization powers could be used to restrict entry for pregnant mothers seeking citizenship for their children. (3)Headline: Presidential Immunity and the Legal Challenges Facing Donald Trump Guest: Richard Epstein Epsteindiscusses the Supreme Court's 2024 immunity ruling, distinguishing between official and unofficial acts. He critiques President Trump's private business ventures, like cryptocoin deals, as non-official acts subject to litigation. Epstein also argues that Todd Blanche is disqualified from being Attorney General. (4)Headline: Lancaster County's Economy: Weather Disruptions and Inflationary Pressures Guest: Jim McTagueJim McTague reports on violent thunderstorms in Lancaster County that caused widespread blackouts. Despite the weather, the economy remains resilient, with full hotels and strong retail demand. However, rising gasoline prices and wage-driven inflation are impacting the local community's purchasing power. (5)Headline: Italian Summer: Over-Tourism, Extreme Heat, and the Charm of Bassano del Grappa Guest: Lorenzo Fiori Lorenzo Fiori describes record-breaking heat and humidity in Italy, suggesting tourists visit Bassano del Grappato avoid crowds. He discusses the historic Palio horse race in Siena and recommends enjoying grappa with chocolate and ciabatta bread while overlooking the beautiful Dolomite mountains. (6)Headline: Strategic Stability and the Erosion of the Nuclear Taboo Guest: Peter Huessy Peter Huessy explores the weakening nuclear taboo, noting Putin's near-use of tactical nukes in Ukraine. He contrasts this with historic deterrence during the Cuban Missile Crisis, where Kennedy provided Khrushchev a "way out." Huessy emphasizes that hybrid warfare now complicates traditional deterrence strategies. (7)Headline: The Value of Deterrence in a Proliferating World Guest: Peter Huessy Huessy argues that the U.S. nuclear umbrella remains vital for protecting allies like South Korea from North Korean aggression. He asserts that nuclear weapons are cost-effective compared to massive conventional forces. Without a credible deterrent, reckless actors are more likely to trigger catastrophic global conflicts. (8)Headline: The New Space Race: Chinese Advances and Orbital Threats Guest: Henry Sokolski Henry Sokolskidiscusses China's Long March 10B booster, which successfully demonstrated first-stage recovery. He warns about potential nuclear mines in orbit and the challenge of verifying them. Additionally, Russia and China are reportedly collaborating to disable the Starlink satellite network in Ukraine. (9)Headline: Nuclear Safety and the Fog of War in Iran Guest: Henry Sokolski Sokolski examines reports of strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, noting that targeting reactors is legal if they serve military purposes. He expresses concern over the lack of a baseline inventory for Iran's centrifuges and enriched uranium, which complicates future nuclear negotiations. (10)Headline: Main Street Resilience: Small Business Success in 2026 Guest: Gene Marks Gene Marks reports that American small businesses are thriving, with strong consumer spending and rising revenues. He notes that wages are outpacing inflation, contributing to historical levels of personal wealth. While some use AI for content, most businesses still avoid AI for core transactions. (11)Headline: AI Productivity vs. Headcount in the Small Business Sector Guest: Gene Marks Marks argues that AI is not replacing workers but rather increasing productivity for existing staff. He highlights innovative applications like the "AI Shop Advisor" at The Vitamin Shoppe and automated inventory management tools like Zenput. Small businesses continue to face a shortage of labor. (12)Headline: The Secretive Construction of Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Guest: Andrea Stricker Andrea Stricker warns of a deeply buried nuclear site at Pickaxe Mountain, which may house advanced centrifuges. The facility is located two-thirds of a mile underground, making it extremely difficult to disable via airstrikes. Stricker recommends the U.S.demand IAEA inspections to verify compliance. (13)Headline: Latin America's Shift Toward Democratic Capitalism Guest: Conrad Black Conrad Black observes a "tidal wave" of reform across South America as nations reject left-wing "gangster" governments in favor of market economies. He highlights the success of Colombia's President Abelardo De La Espriella, a Trump ally. This regional shift is significantly influenced by Trump's economic model. (14)Headline: SETI Protocols and the Scientific Search for Extraterrestrial Life Guest: Michael Garrett Michael Garrett introduces updated SETI protocols for handling potential contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. The guidelines emphasize the scientific method and verification to avoid false alarms. Garrett suggests searching for machine technology or waste heat from advanced civilizations across the electromagnetic spectrum. (15)Headline: SETI vs. UAPs: Distinguishing Science from Folklore Guest: Michael Garrett Garrett clarifies that SETIfocuses on astronomy, not atmospheric phenomena like UFOs or UAPs. While supportive of UAP research to understand drones or rockets, he remains skeptical of extraterrestrial visits. These updated guidelines aim to assist astronomers who might stumble upon technological signatures. (16)Each segment now runs as a single paragraph, headline through tail.

Headline: The Value of Deterrence in a Proliferating World Guest: Peter Huessy Huessy argues that the U.S. nuclear umbrella remains vital for protecting allies like South Korea from North Korean aggression. He asserts that nuclear weapons are cost-effective compared to massive conventional forces. Without a credible deterrent, reckless actors are more likely to trigger catastrophic global conflicts. (8)

Headline: Strategic Stability and the Erosion of the Nuclear Taboo Guest: Peter Huessy Peter Huessy explores the weakening nuclear taboo, noting Putin's near-use of tactical nukes in Ukraine. He contrasts this with historic deterrence during the Cuban Missile Crisis, where Kennedy provided Khrushchev a "way out." Huessy emphasizes that hybrid warfare now complicates traditional deterrence strategies. (7)1903

Can governments decide who gets access to advanced AI models? Are third-party breaches becoming impossible to control? And why are so many CISOs reaching burnout? In this special Cybersecurity Today Month in Review Panel, host Jim Love is joined by cybersecurity experts Laura Payne, David Shipley, and Mike Kim (Mycroft) to examine the biggest cybersecurity stories and trends from June 2026. The panel explores the controversy over U.S. export controls on Anthropic's Mythos and Fable AI models, what they reveal about digital sovereignty, and whether governments should be able to restrict access to frontier AI. They also discuss the continuing wave of third-party breaches, including Salesforce ecosystem compromises and the Clue breach, and why organizations must move beyond compliance toward practical risk management. The conversation examines FortiBleed, exposed administrator portals, credential reuse, and the difficult balance between software flaws, operational mistakes, and secure-by-default design. The panel also tackles one of cybersecurity's biggest human challenges: CISO burnout, executive accountability, organizational culture, and what separates successful security leaders from those set up to fail. The episode concludes with encouraging developments in international cybercrime enforcement, including Operation Riptide, and why better intelligence sharing and improved operational security are making it harder for cybercriminals to hide. Whether you're a CISO, security practitioner, IT leader, or simply interested in the rapidly changing cybersecurity landscape, this discussion offers practical insight into the trends shaping the industry. Panel Jim Love (Host) Laura Payne David Shipley Mike Kim (Mycroft) Topics covered AI export controls and digital sovereignty Anthropic Mythos and Fable Third-party and supply chain risk Salesforce ecosystem security FortiBleed and Fortinet security Secure-by-default strategies CISO burnout and executive accountability Operation Riptide Cybercrime investigations Security leadership and governance Chapters 00:00 Sponsor NordLayer 00:38 Meet the Panel 02:40 Author Scam Warning 04:51 Emotion Is the Target 08:47 AI Model Export Controls 10:01 Hype vs Real AI Security 15:01 Sovereignty and Dependency 20:35 Governments Push Back 24:14 AI Internal Voice Risks 26:12 Third Party Breach Fatigue 30:05 Compliance Limits on Risk 32:15 Blame Game to Risk Focus 33:18 Standards and Priorities 33:39 When Security Vendors Fail 34:35 FortiBleed Numbers Explained 35:44 Process Failures vs Bugs 37:32 Why Fortinet Gets Heat 39:05 Secure by Default Basics 41:04 Budget Reality and Culture 44:36 CISO Burnout and AI Pressure 46:16 Liability and Shared Ownership 50:12 What Great CISOs Do 53:07 Operation Riptide Wins 56:10 Deterrence and Due Process 58:14 Sharing Intel for ROI 59:09 Hopium and Wrap Up 01:00:46 Sponsor NordLayer Message

The need for robust and enhanced defense spending in an increasingly fragmented world is a policy objective agreed upon across the political divide. Few are better positioned to comment on the obstacles and opportunities of the process than Sir Ben Wallace, a former Captain in the British Army, a member of Parliament for 20 years and Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom between 2019 and 2023. In his post-government life as an investor, he offers a singular perspective on the gaps in manpower and equipment faced by most Western powers and how we can begin to address them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're taking a short hiatus for the holiday, and we thought now would be a great time to resurface this episode from March about a venture capital fund focused on restoring America's arms manufacturing capabilities. We hope you enjoy! Happy Fourth of July!  Summary: When it comes to defense tech, it's not enough to design the best weapons systems, you need to be able to actually build them. Today's company is investing in the infrastructure that will restore American arms manufacturing capabilities, and preserve our advantage in a world that's becoming more dangerous.Our guest today is Joe Musselman, Founder and Managing Partner of Bravo Victor Venture Capital, a US-based early seed and series-A venture capital fund. Joe is accountable for the firm's strategic vision and day-to-day mission, and leads all teams at the firm, including capital, investment, portfolio, and fund operations. Since 2019, Joe's invested in companies like Firestorm, Epsilon3, Havoc AI, and notable early breakouts like Anduril, and Figure AI. And importantly for our conversation today, he recently led investments into Union, a new energetics prime where he is Co-Founder and Chairman.Today, Joe discusses his fascinating journey as a founder, how BVVC is enabling national security start-ups to scale effectively, and why winning the AI race will be crucial for the future of our country. Highlights:Joe's journey (2:17)Why defense tech? (6:01)Fund in the field (8:26)Scaling national security startups (13:18)Union and the manufacturing advantage (19:01)The importance of AI (23:25)Why defense tech investments are crucial (27:29)Links:Joe Musselman LinkedInJoe Musselman LinkedInBVVC WebsiteICR LinkedInICR TwitterICR Website Feedback:If you have questions about the show, or have a topic in mind you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer, joe@lowerstreet.co

Send us Fan MailNow the Defence Investment Plan has been announced - what does it really mean?Philip Ingram has some thoughts in song!Starmer stood up with a shiny new plan,£298 billion, yeah, that's what he said, man.Fifteen extra for drones and some hybrid dreams,But the chiefs wanted twenty-eight—now we're bursting at the seams!They trimmed the budgets, raided the pot,Told the MoD to save ten billion—give it all you got!But there's a five billion hole staring back at me,Next Prime Minister's problem—thanks for the legacy![Chorus]Woefully inadequate, that's what they say,Black hole in the budget, enemies on the way.Drones in the water, destroyers out the door,This ain't investment, it's sticking plasters on a open sore!Indefensible, un-defendable,Britain's war-ready? Mate, it's barely tenable![Verse 2 – NEW]But here's the real trick, the hospital pass supreme,4.7 billion dropped on Burnham like a bad dream.Starmer wraps another review and calls it a win,Delays in the spending now baked right in.As the new King Andy Burnham takes the crown with a smile,He can stall all defence cash for a good long while!Political football, kicked down the road,Black hole as a weapon in the Labour code.[Verse 3]Hybrid navy coming, Common Combat Vessels they say,Mother ships for drones, gonna save the day.But Tom Sharpe's yelling, "Cost-cutting by name!Drones can't do it all, it's a risky game!"Type 45s retiring, frigates on the slide,While the spreadsheet's winning and the Navy's getting fried.Old weapons still work, tech ain't God yet,But we're betting the farm on a Ukrainian reset![Chorus]Woefully inadequate, that's what they say,Black hole in the budget, enemies on the way.Drones in the water, destroyers out the door,This ain't investment, it's sticking plasters on a open sore!Indefensible, un-defendable,Britain's war-ready? Mate, it's barely tenable![Bridge]Lord Dannatt's fuming, "The price we'll pay's unthinkable!"Deterrence in the toilet while the Treasury's invincible.2.7 percent? We were promised way more,NATO's watching, allies keeping score.Repackaged promises, massaged figures too,Half of what we needed—now what we gonna do?[Verse 4 / Outro]So raise a glass to the plan that satisfies none,Cuts and efficiencies under the gun.From the X feeds raging to the papers in a spin,This Defence Investment Plan—where do we begin?Enemies are laughing, watching from afar,While we're playing drone wars in a budget bazaar...

In this episode of The NIDS View, we examine the strategic implications of emerging hypersonic weapons, focusing on the U.S. Army's Dark Eagle missile. Joined by missile and space warfare expert Chris Stone, the conversation explores how hypersonic capabilities are reshaping deterrence, escalation dynamics, and the future of conflict. From the engineering challenges behind these systems to their potential role in both conventional and nuclear scenarios, this discussion highlights the complex balance between capability and restraint. The episode also considers how adversaries monitor and respond to these developments, and what it all means for strategic stability in an increasingly contested security and political environment. www.ThinkDeterrence.com

Happy 250th Anniversary of our Independence, and we're still fighting for it.  I discuss current deterrence events; 2020 voter fraud; SCOTUS ruling; rising homeschooling in Louisiana; an Ohio school-district staff survey that reads like a horror novel; and a warning from a south African for America. Substack: https://theamericanclassroom.substack.com/p/pride-month-in-american-schools   Book Websites: HERE and HERE. https://www.moneytreepublishing.com/shop PROMO CODE: “AEFM” for 10% OFF, or https://armreg.co.uk PROMO CODE: "americaneducationfm" for 15% off all books and products. (I receive no kickbacks).  https://www.thriftbooks.com/ Q posts book: https://drive.proton.me/urls/JJ78RV1QP8#yCO0wENuJQPH

Today on Uncommon Sense, we're taking a deeper look at the Israel-Iran conflict, the continuing questions surrounding the Epstein files, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk. We'll discuss why these stories continue to dominate public conversation, explore the political and geopolitical questions people are asking, and examine why these events should be viewed together rather than in isolation.--https://www.youversion.com/bible-app

According to the USCCB's voting guide, Catholics are called to "stand with newcomers, authorized and unauthorized, including unaccompanied immigrant children, refugees and asylum-seekers, those unnecessarily detained, and victims of human trafficking." This directive is in line with the church's longstanding emphasis on immigrant rights, and the ancient mandate to "welcome the stranger," a core value for Christianity and a sacred obligation in many pre-Christian societies.   What this means when it comes to the nuts and bolts of policy, however, is a matter many Catholics debate. At a time when the federal government has been removing protections for immigrant groups, barring immigrants from entering the nation, and promising to deport immigrants en masse, the debate is pressingly relevant.    What does the church have to say about deportation? Is there an official Catholic stance on the matter?   On this episode of Glad You Asked, the hosts talk with moral theologian Therese Cory about whether the Catholic Church condemns deportation. Cory is a professor of Thomistic Studies at Notre Dame as well as director of the Jacques Maritain Center and its associated History of Philosophy Forum. Her scholarship focuses on medieval theories of mind, cognition, and personhood, with special focus on the thought of Thomas Aquinas.    Learn more about this topic, and read some of Cory's writing, in these links.   "7 things the Catholic Church teaches about immigration," by Rebecca Bratten Weiss   "Migration should be a choice, not a necessity," by Antônio Lemos   "U.S. bishops unite to defend migrants—laypeople should, too," by Kevin Clarke   "Wyoming bishop's immigration letter puts faces to mass deportations," by Cassidy Klein   "How to Reason Prudentially about Immigration: A Reply to Feser," by Therese Cory   "Migrants and the Unborn: A Culture of Life Versus a Culture of Deterrence," by Therese Cory  

Dr. Joshua E. "Bugsy" Segal is Co-Founder and Vice President for Strategy and Innovation at Deft9 Solutions, a Washington-DC-based national security consultancy. He carries a PhD in Russian Studies from George Washington University. His career has run for more than thirty years across military, civilian, and intelligence positions in US national security. He served as a naval officer and retired in 2020 after a closing tour as a lead planner at US Special Operations Command, working on counter-WMD and great-power-competition requirements. Since retirement, Segal has worked as a senior national security consultant focused on information warfare, arms control, and hybrid warfare strategies. ----------LINKS:https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-e-segal-phd-%E2%80%9Cbugsy%E2%80%9D-394752a7/https://www.fpri.org/contributor/joshua-segal/----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------ACTIVE CAMPAIGN:We are raising funds for 5 of 15 Vampire DronesSilicon Curtain for Kupiansk Vampires. Dzyga's Paw, together with Jonathan Fink, is joining forces to raise $40,000 to provide the Khartiia Brigade with Vampire Drones.https://dzygaspaw.com/silicon-curtain-for-kupiansk-vampiresThese heavy bombers are designed to destroy manpower and equipment, as well as for remote mining. The Vampire UAV, manufactured by Skyfall, has proven itself to be one of the most effective weapons in the Kupiansk direction. Skyfall is one of Ukraine's largest defense tech companies, producing Vampire bomber drones, various modifications of Shrike FPV drones, P1-SUN, Shahed drone interceptors, communication systems, and components.----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Car4Ukrainehttps://car4ukraine.com/en-US/campaignsDzyga's Pawhttps://dzygaspaw.com/projectsSuperhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/----------PLATFORMS:Substack: https://substack.com/@siliconcurtainTwitter: https://twitter.com/CurtainSiliconLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finkjonathan/Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6NO7y93zG11JMtqm----------

In this episode, Jim and Curtis examine the strategic role of the U.S. bomber fleet, focusing on the B‑21 Raider and other ongoing bomber modernization. They discuss how bombers support nuclear deterrence, enable flexible strategic signaling, and remain a critical part of the nuclear triad's future thanks to their successful conventional use over the skies of Iran. https://thinkdeterrence.com/Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrenceX.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrenceYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQRumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrenceGlobal Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Is the new Iran deal a historic mistake, and is modern America repeating the fatal errors of Ancient Rome? Ben Domenech breaks down current foreign policy shifts with legendary historian Victor Davis Hanson. In this edition of The Big Ben Show, Ben unpacks his major reservations regarding the proposed Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) and what it reveals about American strength. Joined by Victor Davis Hanson, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, they dive deep into the administration's foreign policy strategy, the reality of regional military threats, and whether modern America is tracking the cultural, fiscal, and border-related collapse of the Western Roman Empire. Later in the episode, culinary icon Christopher Kimball joins the show to celebrate America's 250th anniversary through our unique food traditions. Kimball shares budget-friendly cooking strategies to combat inflation, grilling secrets for your summer celebrations, and explores how GLP-1 lifestyle shifts are fundamentally altering American palates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of NucleCast, Adam sits down with Jay Tilden, former Department of Energy intelligence officer, for an inside look at how the U.S. understands, tracks, and deters nuclear risks in an increasingly complex global environment.From the intelligence role of the Department of Energy to the evolving threats posed by China, Russia, and Iran, Tilden breaks down the realities of nuclear proliferation, the risks of nuclear terrorism, and the critical role of nuclear forensics in deterrence. He also explains why modern nuclear challenges extend beyond weapons—highlighting the growing importance of cybersecurity in the energy sector and the continued need for reliable nuclear power to ensure national and economic security.Jay Tilden is Managing Director for National Security at Mission Strategies, leading the firm's national and energy security practice after a 35-year career at the U.S. Department of Energy, including 13 years in the Senior Executive Service.He most recently served as Director of DOE's Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, leading nuclear, energy, cyber intelligence, and counterintelligence efforts across the enterprise. Previously, he was Deputy Under Secretary for Counterterrorism and Counterproliferation at NNSA.Jay is also a 22-year U.S. Army veteran, serving as a Counterintelligence Technician.Follow us on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@nuclecast3665?si=h1kCO6NqUtL87w6qFollow on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/nuclecastpodcastSubscribe RSS Feed: https://rss.com/podcasts/nuclecast-podcast/Rate: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nuclecast/id1644921278Email comments and topic/guest suggestions to Kimberly@anwadeter.org

On this week's Unpacking Europe podcast the CER's deputy director Ian Bond sat down with Armida van Rij a senior research fellow at the CER and Michael Martin Richter UK country director at the Hanns Seidel Foundation to discuss the themes of the new paper ‘Rearming Europe for Deterrence', available here: https://buff.ly/rwfLU1S They took a detailed look the security threats to Europe, the increase in defence budgets and how this spending can be best utilised to increase Europe's capabilities. They discussed what Europe can do to prepare to defend itself, what lessons can be learnt from Ukraine and the need to update perspectives on how modern warfare should be approached and what is required to combat cyber-attacks.

"Without rockets, nothing is going to happen." In the five years since Taiwan's Space Development Act, that island has started to build-out satellite constellations, a launch site, and has just received its first-ever invitation from NASA to contribute directly to the Artemis lunar program. Deterrence and remaining independent from the PRC is also a driver. Laura Winter speaks with Dr. Wu Jong-Shinn, Director General, Taiwan Space Agency (TASA).

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the strategic environment for Russia on its western border. The conflict has expanded the line of contact with NATO and the alliance's partners in Ukraine, and it now stretches all the way from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea. The nature of the relationship has also changed profoundly, with NATO viewing Russia as a generational threat, and Ukraine emerging as an aggrieved and highly militarily capable nation keen to settle scores with the Kremlin. Advancements in technology have also revolutionized the war and made the strategic landscape far more worrisome for Russia. How does Moscow perceive these changes? And how might future generations of the state security establishment address the challenges? For more in-depth analysis, read Eugene Rumer's paper, Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine.

Welcome to The Kevin Jackson Show!You know, one of the most fascinating things about politics is how quickly people move from confidence to legal defense funds.One day you're the future of the party.The next day you're hiring attorneys.That's not a career path. That's a weather forecast.And speaking of forecasts, have you noticed how quiet the southern border has gotten?Remember when we were told the border was impossible to secure? Remember when we were informed that millions of people pouring into the country was simply the new normal? We were told that walls don't work. Enforcement doesn't work. Deportation doesn't work. Deterrence doesn't work.Turns out the only thing that didn't work was the political will.Illegal immigration has slowed to what can only be described as a trickle compared to the flood Americans endured for years. Not because geography changed. Not because the Rio Grande dried up. Not because coyotes suddenly found religion.Policy changed.And now the United States is reportedly working with other countries as part of a much broader deportation strategy. Think about how remarkable that is.[X] SB – SoS RubioFor years Washington acted like deporting people was harder than building a nuclear reactor. Suddenly we're coordinating internationally.It's almost as if the problem was never capability.It was desire.Meanwhile, Senator Ruben Gallego has launched a legal defense fund.Now that's interesting.Very interesting.Because politicians don't generally establish legal defense funds the way people start Christmas clubs.Nobody says, "You know what? Nothing's wrong, but let's raise money for lawyers."That's not how it works.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The brothers get together for a conversation about the ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon, the meaning of deterrence, the role of Iran in Lebanon, the question of Lebanon's sovereignty, and the divisions within Lebanon about how best to defend the country and its people. Date of recording: May 28, 2026 Follow us on our socials: X: @MakdisiStreet Insta: @Makdisist TikTok: @Makdisistreet YouTube: @Makdisistreet Sign up at Patreon.com/MakdisiStreet to access all the bonus content, including the latest brothers-only conversation.  

On this episode, we examine what happens when deterrence fails. What becomes our plan and strategy? Also, who are the deep state? Channel Support - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/FGHPVTVAPRUNU Jeff Nyquist - www.jrnyquist.blog Trevor Loudon - www.trevorloudon.com and www.keywiki.org  Lee Wheelbarger - www.klwworldnews.com Follow us on X: @Anderson10x3 @JRNyquist @TrevorLoudon1 @KLWNews1

This week on the Korea Pro Podcast, Jeongmin Kim and John Lee sit down with Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss how U.S. alliances are changing and what that means for South Korea. The episode begins with a look at why U.S. allies should not be treated as a single category, and how South Korea's alliance with Washington differs from those involving NATO, Japan, Canada and Australia. The conversation then turns to South Korea's growing defense autonomy, extended deterrence and the debate over whether Seoul could eventually seek its own nuclear weapons. The episode also looks at how U.S. policy uncertainty, regional contingencies and the Strait of Hormuz crisis are shaping South Korea's strategic choices — from energy security to Taiwan and OPCON transfer. About the podcast: The Korea Pro Podcast is a weekly conversation hosted by Korea Risk Group Executive Director Jeongmin Kim, Managing Editor John Lee and correspondent Joon Ha Park, delivering deep, clear analysis of South Korean politics, diplomacy, security, society and technology for professionals who need more than headlines. Uploaded every Friday. This episode was recorded on Thursday May 21, 2026 Audio edited by Alannah Hill

2026-05-28 | UPDATES #208 | How the May 26th Pentagon announcement may just have handed Putin the greatest strategic gift of the 21st century. A prize that barely could have been conceived of before Trump returned to the White House. 26–27 May 2026 — a third of us jets pulled from NATO, destroyers cut, every submarine withdrawn, drones slashed — and Russian forces drilling for Baltic operations in the same week. As I predicted in 2025, Europe is now on its own. ----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------ACTIVE CAMPAIGN:We are raising funds for 5 of 15 Vampire DronesSilicon Curtain for Kupiansk Vampires. Dzyga's Paw, together with Jonathan Fink, is joining forces to raise $40,000 to provide the Khartiia Brigade with Vampire Drones.https://dzygaspaw.com/silicon-curtain-for-kupiansk-vampiresThese heavy bombers are designed to destroy manpower and equipment, as well as for remote mining. The Vampire UAV, manufactured by Skyfall, has proven itself to be one of the most effective weapons in the Kupiansk direction. Skyfall is one of Ukraine's largest defense tech companies, producing Vampire bomber drones, various modifications of Shrike FPV drones, P1-SUN, Shahed drone interceptors, communication systems, and components.----------PLEASE HELP ME ME TO GROW SILICON CURTAINWe are planning our events for 2026, and to do more and have a greater impact. After achieving more than 12 events in 2025, we will aim to double that! 24 events and interviews on the ground in Ukraine, to push back against weaponized information, toxic propaganda and corrosive disinformation. Please help us make it happen!----------SOURCES: Der Spiegel (via Military Times) — "Report: US to cut strategic bombers and warships available to NATO in a crisis" (26 May 2026)RT — "US plans to slash contributions to NATO – Spiegel" (26 May 2026) Daily Mail (via PapaLinc/Intel Drop syndication) — "Trump's secret NATO ultimatum sparks panic as US 'pulls jets, bombers and EVERY submarine from Europe'" (26-27 May 2026)CNN Politics — Natasha Bertrand, "US military withdrawing some troops from Eastern Europe" (29 October 2025) The Hill / Yahoo News — "GOP chairs blast Trump's move to pull troops from Romania" (October 2025) CBS News — "Trump administration's Europe troop drawdown fuels concern amid NATO allies, draws fire even from Republicans" (October 2025) — Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur statement on continued US commitment; Pentagon's "force posture adjustment will not change the security environment in Europe" framing; "primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe" languagePBS NewsHour / AP — "U.S. to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany in next 6 to 12 months" (May 2026)CNN Politics — "Trump is cutting the numbers of US troops in Europe. Here's how" (14 May 2026)Fox News — "Congress moves block Pentagon from cutting US troops Europe South Korea" (late 2025/early 2026) House Armed Services Committee / Wicker.senate.gov — "Chairmen of Senate and House Armed Services Committees: We Strongly Oppose the Pentagon's Decision to Scale Back the U.S. Troop Presence in Romania" (29 October 2025) Yahoo News / The Hill — "Pentagon cuts troops in Eastern Europe, prompting rare pushback by GOP lawmakers" (October-November 2025) ----------

Both of Israel’s wars in Iran have been “strategic failures” and critically damaged the country’s deterrence, Danny Citrinowicz, a former top Iran expert in Israeli military intelligence, told the Haaretz Podcast. He cited a long list of missteps and misguided assumptions that led to the failure of the solo military operation in 2025 and the joint U.S. attack in February. “We overestimated air power and underestimated Iranian resilience,” Citrinowicz said, resulting in the “worst possible strategic reality, with a more extreme, decentralized regime in Tehran,” and heightened tensions with the U.S. – all while highlighting Israel’s dependence on the U.S. as a weakness. While Iran once feared an attack by Israel, he noted, its leaders have now learned that they can be attacked by the two strongest air forces in the world and emerge with its regime intact, as well as “the capacity to launch missiles and drones, and theoretically has the potential to move to a nuclear bomb.” Moreover, in a boomerang effect, he noted, wars launched to deter Iran’s nuclear program have likely intensified Tehran’s motivation to acquire nuclear capacity in order to prevent future attacks. In his conversation with podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer, Citrinowicz – a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies – also discussed the intensifying conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s continued belief that Saudi Arabia will soon join the Abraham Accords, which he called a hope “detached from reality.” Read more: Iran and U.S. Trade Air Strikes After Trump Dismisses Report of Hormuz Deal Trump's Iran Deal: Netanyahu's 2018 Dream Is The World's 2026 Nightmare Analysis | Israel Demands to Disarm Its Regional Enemies, but Refuses to Pay the Price Trump: Not Sure Iran Deal Possible Unless Saudis, Qatar Join Abraham Accords U.S. May Need Years to Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles Depleted in Iran War, Report SaysSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The future of war has been evolving before our eyes in Ukraine, yet the west still plans to fight the last war. In this special episode, guest host Noah Smith (@noahpinion) and Brandon Anderson sit down with Yaroslav Azhnyuk (@YaroslavAzhnyuk), a serial tech founder who went from building PetCube to founding The Fourth Law, one of the world's most advanced AI-guided drone companies. Over two hours we cover the technology, tactics, and geopolitics of drone warfare, and why the modern battlefield has already left the West behind:* Yaroslav's personal history and the Ukraine war [00:01:04 – 00:14:01]* The modern drone tech stack: why FPV drones are the new god of war, the future of the rifleman, fiber optic vs. AI, five levels of autonomy, and the eight dimensions of the autonomous battlefield [00:14:01 – 01:05:13]* The geopolitics and economics of drones: China's manufacturing advantage, the drone race, Western defense readiness, countermeasures, and why the gap is widening [01:05:13 – 01:58:57]For those looking for Noah Smith's commentary, it really gets going around the 00:51:31 mark.Yaroslav Azhnyuk / The Fourth Law:* X: https://x.com/YaroslavAzhnyuk* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yaroslavazhnyuk/* The Fourth Law: https://thefourthlaw.aiNoah Smith:* Substack: Noah Smith * X: https://x.com/noahpinionTimestamps00:00:00 Cold Open: China's 4 Billion Drones and the Cameras-to-Explosives Pipeline00:01:04 Introduction: Brandon, Noah Smith, and Yaroslav Azhnyuk00:05:41 From Tech Entrepreneur to Defense: PetCube, Brave One, and the D3 Fund00:10:42 The Ethics of Building Weapons: Dual-Use Technology and the Wolf at the Door00:14:01 The Tech Stack: Cameras, Autonomy Modules, Interceptors, and a Semiconductor Fab00:18:47 Fiber Optic vs. AI: The Radio Horizon Problem and $32/km Cable00:25:32 FPV Drones: The New God of War — 70–80% of Frontline Casualties00:28:28 The Five Levels of Drone Autonomy: From Terminal Guidance to Full Autonomy00:41:37 The Eight Dimensions of the Autonomous Battlefield00:45:32 AI Safety and the Morality of Autonomous Weapons00:51:31 The End of the Rifleman? Noah's 2013 Prediction vs. Battlefield Reality01:05:13 China's Manufacturing Advantage and Western Vulnerabilities01:24:21 Policy Advice for Western Defense: Defense Valley and the Widening Gap01:32:54 The Drone Race: Who's Ahead, Category by Category01:41:57 Countermeasures: Shotguns, Jammers, Lasers, and Fishnets01:58:19 The Wedding and Final Takeaway: Be Prepared for WarTranscriptCold Open: China, FPV Drones, and the New Warning SignYaroslav [00:00:00]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world. China can produce 4 billion of these FPV drones.Noah [00:00:10]: Would you say that right now China is now the supreme conventional military power on Earth, given its ability to manufacture and deploy drones in the quantity and quality that you just described?Yaroslav [00:00:20]: I don't think we have all the information to claim that but we cannot count it out, and that alone should be a big warning sign. As I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that's the short story. And when you think about what your nation, what your patriots are going through, you realize that's the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back, and then the choice becomes very clear.Introduction: Yaroslav Azhnyuk, Petcube, and the Last Flight into KyivBrandon [00:01:04]: Welcome to Latent Space. I'm Brandon. I normally do science podcasts, but today we're going to do something a little bit different. I'm joined by Noah Smith of Noahpinion on Substack and Twitter. And he has lots of interesting things to say about drones. And as a guest, we have Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder of The Fourth Law and several other, drone-related startups. To get started, it is February 23rd, 2022. You are running a pet startup. You're connecting pets with their owners. Let's go in just a little bit of background. How did you get started in tech, and what were you working on before the Ukrainian war started?Yaroslav [00:01:50]: Good to be here. Thank you. On February 23rd, late in the evening, 11:00 PM Kyiv time, my wife and I landed in Kyiv. Actually, then she was a fiance. We came from Lviv, where we were looking at a church, where our wedding should have taken place. And we got into this cab ride from the airport to our home, and the driver was like, “You crazy. Like, everyone's leaving Kyiv. Why do you come?” We're like, “What? Nothing's going to happen. Dude, chill.” And then obviously, eight minutes later, or eight hours later, the bombs fell in the city. It was quite surreal. We probably landed on the last flight that landed in Kyiv, or one of those last flights. My background, I'm a tech guy. Studied applied mathematics in Kyiv Polytechnics, born and raised in Kyiv. My parents are old PhDs from academia, and grandparents too. Like, everything, from linguistics to nuclear physics. And I'm an entrepreneur, so I've built a bunch of companies. Petcube is the one you were referencing. So I lived in San Francisco 2014 to 2020, building Petcube, which is one of the leading, pet device companies in the world, selling lots of pet cameras. And then, yeah, as I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that's the short story.February 24th: Leaving Kyiv as the Invasion BeginsNoah [00:03:28]: February 24th, I guess a few hours after you, go to check out your wedding chapel, what do you do?Yaroslav [00:03:37]: We had a plan for this situation. So my parents and family live in Kyiv, and we're like, “Okay, this has actually started. The worst has, come true.” And so we basically packed our belongings and got in the car and spent 17 hours driving west. And that was pretty sure most people in our audience watched at least one apocalyptic movie in their life, so that was exactly like that. Like, felt exactly like that. Missiles are falling. Like, there was smoke in Kyiv. Like, my dad and I went, like, to central part of the cities. It's probably, likeYaroslav [00:04:20]: 800 meters from presidential office, to pick some stuff up at his workplace. Because he's, like, the head of an academic institution, so he had to get some of the things with him. And super surreal. Like, the streets are empty. Like, the gas stations are out of gas. Like, we found some gas station. We didn't have, like, spare canisters with us, so we're like, We figured out, like, the car was diesel, so like, we figured out, if it's diesel, you can actually store it in plastic, canisters, and we bought some window wash for the cars. We poured it out of the canisters, and we poured the diesel into that. Yeah, so it was like that. And then, like, helping friends get out, like my friend and his dog. Like, we found Like, my brother was also, like, riding in a separate car. We found a place for my friend who didn't have a car. It was like, yeah, it was like, totally surreal. And we didn't know of course, and you didn't know this will last for so long. You didn't know whether Ukraine will be able to defend Kyiv. And it was like, yeah, very little information and very little insight into future.From Pet Cameras to Defense Tech: Building for Ukraine and the Free WorldNoah [00:05:42]: What are your thoughts with regards to how do you, defend, Ukraine? So you eventually start building drones Like, what is the process to get from there from where you were building, devices that connect owners with pets to building drones, and what other things did you do to help the war effort in the process?Yaroslav [00:06:07]: It's definitely non-trivial, right? Like, I didn't go, to I didn't get any, like, military education when I was a student. Like, normally, in Ukraine, you would, you would go to like, this military school even if you're getting higher education in any other, sphere. I decided to skip that which is like, an unusual way to go. And I never thought that I will be somehow engaged in a war effort. Like, what is war? Of course, wars are over. It's the end of history. So one thing you got to understand about, like, many Ukrainians and like, I guess, it's also true about most of the people I met here in the US, that your who you are in terms of your nationality is a big part of your identity. So when that gets under attack, it's something deeper than just the country you live in gets under attack, right? And I Day one, I figured I'm going to I'm going to fight back with everything I can, right? But I didn't think on day one that I'm actually going to do, weapons. And a bunch of things. We were reaching out to a number of American, congresspeople and senators, and basically advocating for support of Ukraine, for voting for lend lease, which has happened in May 2022, but didn't actually work as expected. We helped start, Brave One, which is now a very important defense innovation cluster, sort of like a DIU here in the US. We helped start, a fund called D3. It's like, it was started or co-started by Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google. So a bunch of these odd things, but then eventually I was like, “Okay,”by 2023 it was obvious this thing, A is going to last a lot more time, and B, that the whole world is shifting and that there's going to be a new arms race, that the warfare is redefined by drones as platforms. And for the first time in history, you have a platform that is software defined, that can increase your battlefield capabilities, in a in a step change just overnight. So it's like if you were able to push a software update and get all of your Roman legionnaires a new helmet? That has never been possible before. It's the first time in the history of war this is possible. So all of that and many other things like, supply chain fragilization, and the impact that AI is going to have on all of this all these things have become evident to me in 2023, and it's like, “Okay, I should do what I do best, or what I know how to do best, start a tech company, and sort of leverage the global techno capitalist machine, to provide, defensibility to Ukraine and the free world.” So that's literally the mission of the company, increase defensibility of Ukraine and the free world. And then there was some sort of soul-searching and like, asking yourself. It's like, “Okay, am I Actually, I know nothing about weapons. Am I actually, like, ready to make, things that other people use to kill other bad people?”Yaroslav [00:09:36]: When you think about what your nation, what your Compatriots are going through And think about all the terror of places like Bucha, the occupied cities in the east and south, the abducted children, the raped women, all the economic damage that's being done, and the intention to destroy a whole nation, to genocide the people of Ukraine, you realize that's the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back. And then the choice becomes very clear. And look, we're just passing the ammunition. We're not doing the actual job. The actual fighters and defenders and heroes are people in the armed forces. We're just support.The Moral Question: Weapons, Responsibility, and Fighting BackNoah [00:10:33]: I have so many questions. Actually, I know you seem to have a question. Do you want to ask anything?Yaroslav [00:10:38]: No, I'm just listening. Go ahead.Noah [00:10:40]: I do want to talk about, some of let's say, the moral issues, like you just said. You endYaroslav [00:10:50]: I think there are no issues there.Yaroslav [00:10:52]: What would an example of a moral question be in this case?Noah [00:10:55]: No, I mean Okay. As you just said, you are creating the tools, but others are using them.Noah [00:11:05]: I was maybe thinking of having this conversation later, but one of the questions is like, is it actually you are going to be building them for your homeland, which you are building it for your homeland, which is I think, very a strong morally defensible position, but this technology is not going to stay with you, right?Noah [00:11:26]: This you will probably be selling these to other people Yeah. So the future is really where the moral issues may come into playYaroslav [00:11:38]: The this question becomes, easier and more complete if we ask this not about a particular technology or particular weapon, if we think that this question actually applies to any kind of technology Right? So -Knife or fire. You can use knife to do surgery and save people's lives, or you can use it as a weapon to take people's lives.Noah [00:12:06]: Cut tomatoes, too.Yaroslav [00:12:08]: Cut tomatoes too.Noah [00:12:09]: Yes, knife.Yaroslav [00:12:09]: That's helpful.Noah [00:12:10]: In Japan, sword and knife, they, call the same word.Yaroslav [00:12:14]: It's like, it's with any technology. Large language models, right? Look at how powerful they are and yet they're available to anyone in North Korea or in Russia.Yaroslav [00:12:29]: That's one side of the argument. The other side is As a maker, what is your responsibility for how the tools you're creating, will be used? There's definitely some responsibility, right? Then How should the decision process look like? Should you, like, try to calculate all the possible scenarios before starting to work on something? Or do you create something that is needed now to save people's lives, and then think about, addressing the unwanted edge cases later? In ideal world where there's like, or okay, it's not ideal world. In a mythical world where there is some one governing party and it gets to decide everything, and there is no other country, that can, decide on their own, you could say, “Well, we need to calculate for all the consequences, and only then, maybe build this building, by replacing this park because, maybe we need this park in the city,”right? So that kind of situation. But when you're in a situation where you're in a forest, in front of a wolf, you first going to deal with the wolf that wants to eat you, and then you're going to go consult Greenpeace. So that's kind of situation that Ukraine is in.The Fourth Law, Odd Systems, and Ukraine's Drone StackNoah [00:13:59]: Enough. Because this is a tech podcast, I did want to spend some time talking about, sort of the tech in that you've developed and what you've been working on. So can you explain, I guess, first of all, like, the problem that you were trying to solve from a technical standpoint? And I think, and then maybe, like, go into some of the solutions and some of the design process that led you from designing, little laser-guided, guiding lasers with a with an iPhone versus Having drones.Yaroslav [00:14:34]: Like, it so happened, that my partners and I, we sort of So I started one company called The Fourth Law, and its goal was and is to Make, massively scalable on-drone autonomy. And then In parallel with that together with my, Petcube co-founders, partners, and friends, we started another company called Odd Systems Which, was focused on making thermal cameras. Cameras, thermal cameras are seeing thermal radiation and are used to see at night. And we're now sort of those companies are getting closer and closer together and we're probably going to merge them. And this group of companies is currently the leading, team in on-drone AI and thermal imaging on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Likely one of the leading, if not the leading in the world. So We have these, like, three sort of business units, which are cameras, drone autonomy, and drones. So the cameras and drone autonomy sell daytime and nighttime cameras and different types of drone autonomous modules to other drone manufacturers, over 200 drone manufacturers in Ukraine. And then the UAV, business unit sells the drones themselves to the armed forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian government. And there are different types of drones. Those are sort of front strike, as we call them, so those are sort of FPV strike drones and the bombers, and then interceptors. And there are different kinds of interceptors. We do Shahed interceptors and we do ISR interceptors. We don't do the deep strike-FPV Drones, Interceptors, and Battery-Powered WarfareNoah [00:16:32]: What's an ISR interceptor?Yaroslav [00:16:33]: ISR is stands for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and those are basically drones which are which, Russians are using to watch over positions and then communicate where, the targets are coming.Noah [00:16:48]: It's a reconnaissance.Yaroslav [00:16:48]: That's, the ISR is sort of a classical term for a for a reconnaissance drone.Noah [00:16:53]: Are all of these battery-powered drones that you just described? ‘Cause I know that the sort of deep strike drones still have, like Some sort ofYaroslav [00:17:01]: Internal combustion engine?Noah [00:17:02]: Internal combustion engine. Are all the things you're talking about battery-powered?Yaroslav [00:17:06]: What we're working on is all battery-powered, right? We don't do the deep strikes, right? And then in terms of autonomy-Noah [00:17:12]: You can catch a Shahed with a battery-powered thing. It's not Fast to catch.Yaroslav [00:17:17]: No, absolutely. Look, Shahed interceptor, like ours, it's called Zero, it goes up to 326 kilometers per hour.Noah [00:17:26]: For reference, how fast is a Shahed?Yaroslav [00:17:28]: Eight, like, in internal phase it could be 280, but in cruise phase it's, like, 220-ish.Yaroslav [00:17:36]: Yeah. And sorry, I'm not like you can convert that into miles if you're interested.Noah [00:17:41]: No, that's fine.Noah [00:17:41]: Multiply by two thirds or point six or something.Yaroslav [00:17:44]: That's easy. Yeah, I was saying that for autonomy modules, right, we, -We make systems, autonomous systems for frontline, for interceptors and some for deep strikes as well, and then different levels of autonomy. So from terminal guidance, which is like lasts 500 meters, give or take, to autonomous bombing, to autonomous target detection, to autonomous navigation and all of that across day and night, different terrains, different time of the year, different platforms like quadcopters and fixed wing, and maybe some other platforms. So it's quite a wide variety of products. We also have like our own simulation. We have our own training school for the war fighters. And we're about to start construction of two, semiconductor plants to make, sensors for thermal cameras. So that's super exciting for me as a computer science guy is Doing semiconductors. Super cool.Noah [00:18:49]: Like in terms of kind of core drone technologies, you basically are one is an FPV replacement without fiber optics, and the other isYaroslav [00:18:59]: YouNoah [00:18:59]: Signal tracking with interceptorsYaroslav [00:19:00]: With or without fiber optics. Fiber optics Is just like, sort of a communication module.Yaroslav [00:19:05]: You can, you can use classical analog, video link and radio link. Those would be two separate radios. You can do digital, or you can do fiber optic, and then fiber optic Has its own advantages but also adds weight and decreases, the distance and decreases, how fast you can, sort of turn and With a drone. Yeah.Noah [00:19:33]: Do you need AI for fiber optic drones?Yaroslav [00:19:36]: Like you can use AI for fiber optic drones. AI replaces a human, right? Fiber optic is making your communication link more resilient. So those are slightly different goals. Like if you want, you can have, AI controlling hundreds of fiber optic drones instead of having 100 operators for each.Fiber Optics, Radio Horizons, and Terminal GuidanceNoah [00:20:03]: I guess I thought that the key reason that people moved to fiber optic drones was for like electronic, countermeasures. Or I guess to counter those.Yaroslav [00:20:13]: I think that's a correct assessment from sort of a public awareness standpoint. In practice it's somewhat more difficult Because besides electronic countermeasures, you have these issues of a radio horizon For FPV drones, which means that asYaroslav [00:20:36]: I believe Earth is round Some people disagree. But basically if you fly a drone and you have a land station over here and a drone flying over hereYaroslav [00:20:49]: If your drone is flying high, you have good direct radio visibility. If your drone goes low, and usually, Russian infantry and vehicles, they're on the ground and you want to hit them, you need to go low. Lower you go, maybe you'll get behind a hill or behind a forest, and if you're far enough, you'll just get behind the curvature of the earth. You get into what's called a radio shadow. And then That is a real bummer because for the last, be it 60 or 20 meters, you won't be able to see anything and it will be very difficult to hit the target. So to counter that what-- And then the distances that these FPV drones, act on they're, they can be quite large. So for example, here in the US there was this drone dominance program competition, and in drone dominance the furthest distance was about 10 kilometers.Noah [00:21:44]: What was drone dominance? What was that competition?Yaroslav [00:21:47]: Drone, the drone dominance is a is a program started, by the US government, to accelerate the development of drone technology here in the US.Noah [00:21:57]: Got it. And the longest range thing they were using was 10 kilometers.Yaroslav [00:22:00]: Was 10 kilometers, right. In Ukraine, like if your drone doesn't fly at least 20, 25, it just, no one's interested in it, and the usual hits are happening. It was like, okay, many hits are happening between 30 and 40 kilometers, and that's what expected from a regular 10-inch, FPV drone. So at that distance, even at altitudes of like 60 to 100 meters, you might start losing, the link. So some of the earlier AI technology that was fielded in FPV drone was this terminal guidance technology. That was the first product that we ever, launched that helped you as an operator, once you see the target from two, three, 500 meters, you lock onto the target and then, it just, drives the drone towards the target no matter what, even after you lost the visual connection. So optic fiber solves that. However, if you want to go like 20 kilometers with optic fiber, that will add an extra three kilos, of useful weight to your drone. SoNoah [00:23:12]: ‘Cause the cable that you have to unspool as you go weighs.Noah [00:23:15]: It is heavy.Yaroslav [00:23:15]: At first, like the spool is about 800 grams, so a bit less than a kilo, and then, and then think about 10, 10 kilometer optic fiber is another kilo, something like that. That takes away from your useful mass and then now you have like, you need a 15-inch drone and it can only carry maybe one or two kilos of explosives if you want to go, 20 kilometers. If you want to go to 30 or 40, like 30 is probably max. 40 is like very problem problematic on optic fiber. And then the problem with optic fiber is it's actually getting super expensive. So and why? Because of all the data centers for AI. That's literally the same optic fiber-Noah [00:24:01]: We're running out of centersYaroslav [00:24:02]: That's being used there.Yaroslav [00:24:02]: Like when Ukrainians and Russians come to Chinese factories to buy the optic fiber, they're like, “We're out. We sold it out to the Americans.”? That's the craziest thing. So optic fiber went up in price from like, $4 per, kilometer to like, $32 per kilometer in a few months in the beginning of this year. And I'veBrandon [00:24:26]: Claude Code is stopping the Russian drone effort here.Yaroslav [00:24:30]: Ukrainian as well. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:31]: Ukrainian. But I read somewhere that the Russians had grown more dependent on fiber optic drones relative to the Ukrainians, and that's one reason why the Ukrainians have sort of regained the initiative in drones recently.Brandon [00:24:42]: How accurate's that?Yaroslav [00:24:43]: The Russians were the first ones to scale that. I think by as of now, Ukraine has caught up. I think, like, as of maybe three months ago, Ukraine is mostly caught up on fiber optic. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:57]: What percent of damage would you say is in terms of FPV drone damage would you say is now fiber optic versus, like autonomous?FPVs as the New God of War: Tanks, Artillery, and Cost per KillYaroslav [00:25:07]: For our, for our audience, I actually, I cannot answer that question. Like, it's like I know the answer, but I would not disclose that. But for our audience, I think another interesting fact is out of all the casualties on the front line Between 70 and 80% are done by FPV drones.Brandon [00:25:30]: FPV drones are the new weapon of universal weapon of warfare.Yaroslav [00:25:34]: It'sBrandon [00:25:35]: Land warfare, anywayYaroslav [00:25:35]: They used to say that artillery is a god of war because artillery used to cause, like 80% of casualties, and now On that ranking-Brandon [00:25:46]: FPVYaroslav [00:25:47]: FPV drones rule.Brandon [00:25:48]: FPV drones are the god of war.Yaroslav [00:25:51]: Sort of. Dethroned artillery. But it's not to say that artillery is not useful, is not needed. Like, all of these systems are needed. Maybe except cavalry, although Russians still use it. I know, have you seen the videos of Russians using mules and horses?Brandon [00:26:09]: What is the usefulness-Yaroslav [00:26:10]: It'Brandon [00:26:10]: Of a tank in the in the modern-Yaroslav [00:26:11]: That's where we need Greenpeace to say a word, but they're silent. Yeah.Brandon [00:26:15]: What's the use of a tank on the modern battlefield?Yaroslav [00:26:21]: It's diminishing.Brandon [00:26:22]: Diminishing.Yaroslav [00:26:22]: However, I think there might be technologies which will, revive the tank. Look, tank still provides you armor, and armor is important. Like, you still need to armor and firepower, right? Like, you can be an armor personal carrier that provides you, armor. The challenge that currently exists is armor is not very well protected against incoming drones. However, there are ways to do to protect it. We were previously talking about this before the podcast. The CEO of Rheinmetall, recently sort of ridiculed, Ukrainian drone industry, saying that like, there is nothing interesting there, no real innovation, no to stand Compared to like, Rheinmetall or Boeing, and it's all made by housewives. There was like, obviously a ton of memes about this people ridiculing the CEO of Rheinmetall. And one of the best quotes, I heard on this topic is from my friend, Alexey Babenko, who's, the head of and founder of VIARI Drone, which is one of the largest manufacturers of FPV drones. They're our partner. They're using our autonomy. So he said that the drones we manufacture in one day will be more than enough to destroy all the tanks Rheinmetall manufactures in a year.Yaroslav [00:27:52]: Then, yeah, cost-wise, of course, a drone is like, $500 and a Rheinmetall tank is what, probably 5 million-ish or maybe more.Brandon [00:28:00]: Don't mess with those housewives.Yaroslav [00:28:03]: Drone wives.Brandon [00:28:04]: Drone wives.Yaroslav [00:28:06]: That's it.Noah [00:28:06]: There's a classic saying that everyone always fights the last war.Noah [00:28:12]: Yet do How did So from your standpoint, how did we get to the point where tanks became irrelevant in at least for now In a matter of just a few years?Yaroslav [00:28:24]: Look, I think it's the same way, how do we get to the point that calculators become irrelevant?Yaroslav [00:28:31]: Now we have iPhones. Like, why would you need a calculator? Technology progresses and its influence grows non-linearly. It's all exponential. So I can tell you that full autonomy, when you put it on a drone Look, so if you, if you think about a tank and a like, it's not a direct comparison, but even, like, a drone and a artillery shell or like, sort of cost per kill, an artillery shell for 155 caliber, which is a standard NATO caliber Currently market price is about $4,000 per piece. So compare that to say, $400 per drone. That's 10 times more expensive. Account for the amortization of the artillery gun and for how vulnerable it is and what is the sort of tactical, capabilities it gives you as compared to a drone. You'll figure out that an FPV drone is maybe three orders of magnitude, more versatile, more useful, more capable than artillery and many of than a classic artillery. Many of Because there are different types of artillery. Not just, like, one 155. You have mortars, you have all that. But give or take, roughly three orders of magnitude maybe. Again, it doesn't have that firepower. It's not one-to-one comparison still.Yaroslav [00:29:53]: Now, take that FPV drone. When you put full autonomy on that FPV drone, which can be not very expensive, like systems that we're, producing are like, in hundreds of dollars of pure bombFull Autonomy: From Human Pilots to Smartphone-Directed Drone MissionsNoah [00:30:06]: Just interrupt. You said full autonomy Just a second ago you were saying that the autonomy here is guidance, right? It's not decision-making.Yaroslav [00:30:14]: No, I was I was saying that's the f-First and sort of easiest pieces of autonomy that was fielded by us. But if you, if you add full autonomy to a droneBrandon [00:30:24]: He, I think he's asking what does it can you, for the listeners, can you explain What the term full autonomy means?Yaroslav [00:30:29]: Basically, I think a good way to think about an FPV drone is like an iPhone of warfare. It's, like, very inexpensive, very mass producible, very versatile. You don't need a bunch of other things when you have a iPhone in your pocket. You don't have, need an MP3 player, you don't need a calculator, don't need other things. All right? So FPV drone is an iPhone. Or like, okay, Apple please don't sue me, is a smartphone. And then, when you add autonomy to it sort of becomes like Uber or ride sharing. Okay? So what it means is instead of actually being a trained pilot who has this complex remote controller device which requires a couple months of training to actually pilot the drone, and then having to pilot it for 30 minutes, flying towards the target, et cetera, et cetera, now you basically, you have your smartphone, you have a drone, you pick your smartphone, you say, “We are here. The bad guys are here. Go and get them.” And the drone goes up, flies in a given direction, localizes itself on the map, finds the dedicated area where they, the bad guys are supposed to be sees the bad guys, bombs them, return, like, watches, so does a damage assessment, returns back, sits down, and then you can pick it up and watch the video if you didn't have the radio link, right?Noah [00:31:59]: That's a bomber drone.Yaroslav [00:32:00]: That's full autonomy for a bomber drone, right?Noah [00:32:03]: You're saying that no human decision is made in this entire process?Brandon [00:32:06]: That's not, that's not what he's saying.Yaroslav [00:32:07]: A human decision was made at the beginning of the process-Noah [00:32:09]: I get it. I get itYaroslav [00:32:09]: The same way as you would fire an artillery.Yaroslav [00:32:12]: When you fire an artillery, you don't stop at like, 500 meters away from a target and ask it whether, you want to strike or not. That's exactly, a human decision is always made at some point. So when you do that's full autonomy, and such full autonomy is happening as we speak. And such full autonomy increases the capabilities of an FPV drone, which is already, like, three orders more powerful than an artillery shell. Full autonomy increases its capabilities by four orders of magnitude because now you can have 100 times as many people who can use it, because you don't need to train those people, and this is important. You can have 10 times, mission success rate, and you can have 10 times utility per drone because now instead of being one-way kamikaze, it's, it can be a bomber.Brandon [00:33:05]: Now wait, let's, you said 10 times mission success rate, which means that fully autonomous bomber drones succeed in their missions 10 times more often than human piloted bomber drones do. That's an important thing to know.Noah [00:33:17]: Maybe, to push back onBrandon [00:33:19]: They're super, they're superhuman. They're, they' 10X superhuman.Yaroslav [00:33:22]: They're not vulnerable to electronic warfare. They don't care about the radio horizon. They don't lose track during navigation. They are not susceptible to human error when, an artillery shell or other drone blows up besides you and you're like, “Hell no,”like, “I'm getting out of here.” Right? That doesn't happen to an autonomous drone. Like, all of those things. Like, we have, like, one of the brigades that's using our drones with just first level autonomy They literally said that their success rates-Brandon [00:33:53]: What's first level autonomy?Yaroslav [00:33:54]: First level autonomy is just the terminal guidance.Yaroslav [00:33:57]: By the way, we have video of that. We can watch that.Brandon [00:33:59]: Terminal guidance means a human gets it nearby and then the AI takes over.Yaroslav [00:34:03]: The human flies it all the way, like 30 kilometers towards the target, and obviously the target was probably given to that human by someone who's flying some ISR drone, some reconnaissance drone, right? So all the way to the target, and once you see the target from a distance of 500 meters, you do target lock, and from there drone flies autonomous. So just that feature alone, it has increased the guy's, his call sign is Grom, so it has increased his, mission success rate, like precision of mission, yeah, mission success rate from 20% to 71%, and it also increased his kill zone from three kilometers to 10 kilometers, which means there's certain area around the front line which is designated kill zone. Whenever enemy goes into that area, it's almost guaranteed to be to be destroyed by a drone. And then obviously the drones are not launched from like, the zero line. They're usually launched from like, minus 10 kilometer-Mission Success, Failure Modes, and the Five Levels of AutonomyBrandon [00:35:03]: What is a zero line?Yaroslav [00:35:05]: Zero line is sort of an imaginary line of control, of two conflicting forces.Brandon [00:35:14]: It's important to explain these things to a lot of the listeners who areYaroslav [00:35:17]: Thank you for askingBrandon [00:35:18]: Familiar with warfare.Noah [00:35:20]: Myself.Noah [00:35:20]: I'm one of those listeners.Brandon [00:35:20]: You said that level one autonomy, in other words just terminal guidance, just, like, human gets it to the finish line and then it goes over the finish line, increases mission success from 20 something percent to 71%, or something like that.Yaroslav [00:35:33]: Increases the kill zoneBrandon [00:35:34]: Increases the kill zoneYaroslav [00:35:34]: Three kilometers to 10 kilometers.Brandon [00:35:36]: Got it.Yaroslav [00:35:36]: On both parameters-Brandon [00:35:37]: What is full autonomy, dude? AndNoah [00:35:38]: Actually on real quick, can we define mission success and like, maybe in a way, what are the failure modes of missions?Brandon [00:35:44]: I have a guess what mission success is.Noah [00:35:46]: But I couldBrandon [00:35:47]: Get ‘em.Yaroslav [00:35:49]: No, but that's a very good question, in fact, because, even if you fly into the target, well, first the target can be damaged or destroyed. Those are two different modes. Then there can be different targets. A sole infantryman is one kind of target. A dugout where supposed there are some, enemies there is another kind of target, and a some mechanical equipment is another type of target. Radio emitting equipment, which, like, often, like, the targets that the military want to get more than anything else is the some enemy radio tower or something like that or some small radio dish that really makes life difficult in that area, in that combat area. So those are different targets, right? It can be destroyed, can be damaged.Then sometimes, the drone hits but doesn't explode. Like, that happens. And then, there are other failure modes. You didn't even reach the target because you were A jammed by electronic warfare; B, you lost the control over drone because of the radio horizon; C, you were jammed by a different type of electronic warfare that happens way before You hit the target area. It's, impacting your, video receiver. So like jamming on video or jamming on control are two different types of jamming. Then something malfunctioned on a drone, just a mechanical malfunction, maybe like a motor broke or like, whatever. So all of those are different failure modes. Yeah, or maybe you got lost, you're navigate navigating to your, to your target. That happens, too.Noah [00:37:41]: The Level one autonomy, basically you manage to point in a direction.Noah [00:37:49]: You go there, and then the last mile The drone taking over.Yaroslav [00:37:52]: We define this like, I define that but it sort of got picked up by the industry. We define five levels of autonomy. So level one is terminal guidance. It's what we just discussed. Level two is bombing. Level three is autonomous target detection and engagement decision. Level four is autonomous navigation. And level five is autonomous takeoff and landing.Noah [00:38:15]: Those are good things to knowYaroslav [00:38:16]: Those are five levels of autonomy. Now, if youNoah [00:38:19]: I have a question for you.Yaroslav [00:38:19]: Sorry. Like, let me finish withNoah [00:38:21]: SorryYaroslav [00:38:21]: Theoretical part.Noah [00:38:23]: What is Tesla running at right now?Yaroslav [00:38:25]: Tesla?Noah [00:38:25]: No, sorry.Yaroslav [00:38:26]: That's very good point. Like, it's exactly, it was inspired by the levels of self-driving autonomy.Noah [00:38:32]: Waymo's level five, right?Noah [00:38:35]: You just tell it where you want to go, it picks you up, and then you go there.Yaroslav [00:38:36]: I think, like, if you, if you look at the classic definitions of self-driving cars, Waymo is still, like, level four because it still requires even remote, but still, like, human control. It's like if Waymo gets in trouble, there is an operator who takes over and resolves this. So that would still be a level four. It doesn't map directly, but it's also five levels.Brandon [00:38:58]: Can I, can I interject a question here? In terms of an FPV drone that's like a suicide drone that'll just blow itself up killing something, how do what it hit? Like, does it, just transmit back, or do you sort of like, lose track of it and hope it hit? Like, what happens to that?Yaroslav [00:39:16]: That's a great question. SoBrandon [00:39:18]: You need another droneYaroslav [00:39:19]: Like, the current battlefield in Ukraine is saturated with different types of drones. So obviously you have all the FPV drones and last year alone, Ukraine manufactured about 4 million of these, and then Russia's maybe, like, 20% less than that. And for this year, the publicly voiced target was 7 million on Ukrainian side. So it's, like, serious numbers. We're getting in serious numbers here. And then besides those, there are different, reconnaissance drones, ISR as we call them, and there are sort of tactical level ISR where we, both Ukrainians and Russians usually use, Mavic, drone by DJI. And then there are a bunch of locally produced drones, which are sort of fixed wing drones that can stay in the air for much longer than Mavic, maybe, like, half an hour. And then, there are drones that can stay for many hours or even up to a day. And those drones have, are more expensive, have more expensive cameras, et cetera, et cetera. We hunt those drones that Russians launch. The Russians hunt our drones, and so on. But ideally, when you, are a group of soldiers operating an FPV, you'll have someone in your, company, or someone in your platoon who has an ISR asset that will do target designation for you. They'll say, “Oh, like, there's a Russian vehicle over there. Go and get him.”and you go there, you get it, and they're like, “Okay, confirmed.”Battlefield Surveillance and the Eight Dimensions of AutonomyBrandon [00:40:57]: Those guys are watching. They have their own drones in the sky.Yaroslav [00:40:59]: Target destroyed. They have, like, a carousel of drones because One Mavic cannot stay more than 30 minutes. ItBrandon [00:41:06]: They're constantly surveilling the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:07]: Almost every spot on the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:11]: It's not always the case. Sometimes you will not have a surveillance asset, so then you would launch another FPV just to confirm that there was a hit. Then if you see there was a hit and you're not sure if it completely destroyed, you maybe hit again for good measure.Brandon [00:41:26]: You double tap.Yaroslav [00:41:28]: That's how it works. But I was about to give you another sort of piece of taxonomy. So you have five levels of autonomy, right? Then you have sort of eight dimensions of autonomous battlefield. So what is eight dimensions? It's crucial to understand how autonomy evolves in a modern, battlefield environment. So dimension number one is level of autonomy. What are the capabilities that your asset has? Dimension number two is the platform you're operating on. So it can be a quadcopter, a fixed wing drone, different types of maybe, like, a long range drone or short range drone, but it can also be a missile. You can have autonomy even on an artillery shell or a ground vehicle or a sea vehicle. So all of those are different platforms. Level three would be domain. So it's ground to ground or ground to air as an intersection, or ground to sea or sea to air. They're all, like, all the nuances with different domains. Then level four, would be higher levels of autonomy, such as swarming, drone carriers, drone nests, et cetera.Brandon [00:42:39]: Now when you're saying level, you're talking about dimensions, not about-Yaroslav [00:42:42]: Sorry. YeahBrandon [00:42:43]: Autonomy levels. So dimension four.Yaroslav [00:42:43]: The dimension. Yeah, I used to say I was supposed to say dimension. I say dimension because each of them works with another, right? So you might have, like third level autonomy, fixed wing drone operating in land to air, and stuff like that right? And then operating in a swarm or operating from a nest. Right? Then you have, sort of dimension number five is environment. So is it day or night? Is it summer or winter? Is it, humid, cold, dry? What kind of target is it? Is your target hiding in a forest, or is it, behind a hill or within buildings? So all of that is environment. Then you have, dimension number six is command and control. How are you dealing with or like, tens of thousands of those assets around the battlefield? How are you coordinating that on the higher levels of command? How are you collecting data? All that.Yaroslav [00:43:44]: Dimension number seven would be infrastructure, so things like simulation, data collection tools, security, deployment mechanisms, et cetera. So all those systems have to be developed separately and integrate with all the others. And finally, dimension number eight is sort of distribution. Have you deployed 100 of these systems or 100,000 of these systems? Because those are two very different ballgames. So that now gives you a more broad overview of how autonomy propagates across the battle space.Targeting, Human Responsibility, and Rules of EngagementNoah [00:44:23]: As someone who has done machine learning and had gone out of distribution and had things, go horribly wrong, you were talking several of these, kind of axes of thinking about drone warfare seem like they could be very susceptible to some sort of distribution shift if you start making things autonomous.Yaroslav [00:44:41]: Like what?Noah [00:44:41]: I mean Well, first ofYaroslav [00:44:43]: If the I'm very interested Sort of sort of kinds of scenarios that you're thinking about.Noah [00:44:48]: Like the most obvious one is you, if I assume these are computer vision guided systems for at least the last mile, how do you ensure that oh, well, like you now have some fog roll in or something, and you, the drones just attack the wrong thing? Or maybe, it probably will not turn around and fly back and attack you, but youYaroslav [00:45:10]: Same, the same, the same question, how do you ensure that your mortar fire hits the right thing? Well, it's like mortar fire, give or take half a kilometer could be plus or minus. So maybe you fire one, and then you fire another. So drones are actually, much better in being precise in those scenarios. And I think, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now it will be immoral to use weapons without AI.Yaroslav [00:45:44]: ‘Cause weapons without AI will be more likely to cause, collateral damage or unwanted damage. Same way, it will be immoral to drive your own car manually on a public road because it's more likely to cause, unwanted damage.Noah [00:46:02]: Wow, I never considered that mightBrandon [00:46:04]: Really? That's definitely coming.Yaroslav [00:46:07]: Anyway.Brandon [00:46:07]: No, but that' I don't know, it's an obvious, an obvious thought. I agree with you.Brandon [00:46:12]: I, No, they, obviously they're not going to let you drive once most of the cars on the road are autonomous.Noah [00:46:17]: No, that one, don't I believe.Yaroslav [00:46:19]: No, I think you were you were talking about drones, right?Brandon [00:46:21]: The drones, right. Cool.Yaroslav [00:46:22]: The weapons, right?Brandon [00:46:23]: Friendly fire and collateral damage and stuff like that is all minimized with AI.Brandon [00:46:27]: Here's my question. Take all let's go to level six autonomy. Let's take all of the target selection. Let's take all the battlefield data, integrate it into one big AI, and have that big AI basically be in command of the battlefield And agentically do target selection.Yaroslav [00:46:44]: Be the general, right?Brandon [00:46:44]: It's a general. It's, you've cut humans out of the loop except maybe as dexterous robots, repairing drones and fastening things to drones or maybe something like that because you don't have those robots yet. How soon are we there? AI general.Yaroslav [00:46:58]: The most important thing to ask ourselves is who will be faster to that us or our adversaries?Brandon [00:47:07]: I assume us, but how fast will we be to that? I hope us.Yaroslav [00:47:11]: I hope so too.Brandon [00:47:12]: How fast can we Like when are we looking at that in terms of like horizons years?Yaroslav [00:47:18]: Like technically, it could be done now. The question is of course, there's, some engineering work to be done. The bigger challenge is deployment. Right? So okay, technically Like operation in Iran, right? They, the publicly, it was claimed that I think Palantir system was used for target designation, et cetera, et cetera. So it is not exactly as you say, the AI makes all the decisions, but basically AI goes through all the data you have, gives you these 1,027 different targets and says, “You-- To confirm, please press Okay.” And you look at the targets and you're like, “Yeah, sounds right. Press Okay.”so that's, I think that's where we are now already, or we were a couple weeks ago as we're recording this on April 10th. Another question is how massively deployable it is. Is it, like, every decision being made like that or is it, like, just some of the decisions made like that? And then different levels of command and control. There you have, like, the platoon, the company level, the battalion, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But the tricky thing here when we get into that territory, the tricky thing is If your enemy is getting advantage of being Thousand times faster than yourself by deploying such systems What do you do?Yaroslav [00:49:10]: You got to-Brandon [00:49:12]: The if the enemy is a thousand times faster than you at deploying those systems?Yaroslav [00:49:16]: Like, if enemy starts deploying level six autonomy, as you call And you have not started doingBrandon [00:49:22]: You're in troubleYaroslav [00:49:23]: Yes, exactly. So you have to catch up. So my point is that it is very important to think about the safety of these systems, but that thinking should not slow you down in developing them because they are critical for your existential, survival, right? And like, one person who doesn't think, doesn't get to think about the ethics of the war is a dead person. That person surely doesn't get to think about that.Brandon [00:49:52]: What would be the safety risk of such a system?Yaroslav [00:49:55]: Of course-Brandon [00:49:56]: Friendly fire?Yaroslav [00:49:56]: Just wrong decisions, right?Brandon [00:49:59]: I see.Yaroslav [00:49:59]: Maybe, these decisions-AI Command Decisions, Dead Zones, and Complex BattlefieldsBrandon [00:50:06]: Skynet AI decides it's going to useYaroslav [00:50:08]: No, these-Brandon [00:50:08]: Drone army to kill usYaroslav [00:50:09]: Decisions will not only be made about drones. They are likely to made about what the humans should do on your side as well. Then obviously some environments are more like Ukrainian-Russian war, where you haveBrandon [00:50:26]: It will have to choose to risk lives. It will have to choose to sacrifice human lives-Yaroslav [00:50:28]: Of courseBrandon [00:50:29]: On your side.Yaroslav [00:50:29]: Of course. And then some environments are just, like, dead, like, dead zones and there are no civilians there, or virtually no civilians close to the front line because, like, super dangerous. Everyone has evacuated from there. But there are other environments which are more like, okay, there's a counterterrorist operation. There's, like, a group of terrorists or a group of civilians. Or like, it's like the recent operations in Iran, I imagine that the US and Israeli forces do not want to harm civilians. They only targeted the military targets there, right? So in those situations, it's a different level of responsibility for that decision-making as well. And then there is just such a big variety of those military missions, and I'm not even, like, well-informed or well-educated in military science to tell you about all those scenarios. We would need to put some general besides me, and maybe a Ukraine general and American general would have told you very different stories about these things.Brandon [00:51:34]: Got it. Can I ask a few more questions? All right. So in 2013, I wrote one of my first, paid articles ever was about how the era of drones will change human society. I was just sitting around bored thinking about things.Yaroslav [00:51:54]: You were way ahead of your time.Brandon [00:51:55]: I said, I said, “The following will happen.”Yaroslav [00:51:57]: It's, this article is real. I've read it.Yaroslav [00:51:58]: It's actually-Brandon [00:51:59]: I said small autonomous, suicide drones, will cleanse the battlefield of human infantry. Human infantry will not be able to stand against swarms of AI-powered, suicide drones. That was I didn't even know about, like, AlexNet at the time, I think.Yaroslav [00:52:19]: You're just an avid sci-fi reader.Brandon [00:52:23]: I'm an avid sci-fi reader, but also, like, it's not Like, there will be a way to do that. It's a it's a nonlinear multidimensional search problem, and you get enough compute, you'll find some search algorithm that will get you there. And soBrandon [00:52:38]: I, yeah, I think that one sentence describes the bitter lesson right there.Brandon [00:52:41]: It's just like it's a multidimensional search space. You search it somehow. I don't know. Figure out some get a grad student-Yaroslav [00:52:47]: Sooner or laterBrandon [00:52:47]: To make a search algorithm.Brandon [00:52:48]: It's not that hard. Anyway, so but then, but I guess the point is The point is that human infantry on the battlefield will be will be gone at the end. I wrote that in 2013. Many people on social media laughed at me for that called me hysterical, said things like, “Electronic warfare will knock all the drones out of the sky.”like, “You need humans to hold ground.”that's something you still hear from a lot of people on social media today. I feel that this article that I've written has never been directionally wrong. It has gotten more and more right steadily over time, and that we're very reading the battlefield reports from Ukraine, where, human infantry are basically guy, like a few guys hiding in dugouts for months, and I'm not sure what they're doing.Yaroslav [00:53:35]: That's on Ukraine's side. On the Russian side, that's just like a zerg rush.Brandon [00:53:38]: The zerg rush, and then they just die. Then, but they have some guys in dugouts too, right? Like hiding in dugouts for months.Yaroslav [00:53:45]: They have. Yeah.Brandon [00:53:45]: Like, but that like, what are those guys doing in the dugouts? Are providing, like, frontline, like, reconnaissance? Like, what are they doing?Yaroslav [00:53:54]: If there is a guy in a dugout with some bullets and automatic weapon, the other guy cannot come and take the that dugout. That'Brandon [00:54:07]: I seeYaroslav [00:54:08]: They are they're establishing control over territory.Brandon [00:54:10]: I see. So that is so there still is a use for human infantry on the battlefield as of today.Yaroslav [00:54:15]: LikeBrandon [00:54:15]: How long will that last?Yaroslav [00:54:17]: I think it will last for a while. This is funny. There's this whole Layer of the modern culture, a modern Ukraine culture built around the war-related stuff. So there is this -Punk rock band, that is called SZC, I guess in English that would be. Which stands short for like a deserter or something like that. So anyhow, this band has a song titled “2030.” It's basically about the year 2030, and the war still goes on as like the whatever, third world war or whatever. And they basically, they, sang about the AI and like cyborgs and everything, but the simple infantry is still needed, and we're still, like, getting cold in those dugouts, and we're still doing our job. That's sort of the theme of the song. And it seems like that's actually what's going to happen. There areGround Robots, Simulation, and the Limits of World ModelsBrandon [00:55:30]: Ground robots will not replace humans in the dugouts soon.Yaroslav [00:55:34]: I'm very much interested in following the whole humanoid robot theme andBrandon [00:55:39]: What about like a dog robot?Noah [00:55:41]: Or just mobile controlled platforms or something.Brandon [00:55:44]: Spider robot, yeah.Brandon [00:55:45]: Everything evolves into a crab.Brandon [00:55:46]: You build a crab robot.Yaroslav [00:55:47]: A humanoid-Noah [00:55:48]: The carcinization of warfare.Yaroslav [00:55:51]: There is a lot of utility in humanoid robots because the world is designed around humanoids. So I would not, like, 100% disqualify the possibility that sometimes 10 years in the future, humanoid robots, will be actually fighting. So that's an actual Terminator kind of scenario.Brandon [00:56:14]: Yeah, in the first Terminator movie, you look at what they've got on the battlefield, they've got flying bomber drones and humanoid robots.Yaroslav [00:56:20]: Look, the cost of large language models of running them is getting so low, you can have basically an inexpensive computer running, what was a state-of-the-art model a year and a half ago, running it locally on a device with an open source model, which also means that the Chinese can have it, the Russians can have it, the North Koreans can have it, et cetera. So that is already possible. And with when we're looking at the acceleration of the neural nets, I would've, if not the acceleration of the large language models, I would've said that I don't think that humanoid robots will be able to be useful in the battlefield earlier than in 10 years. But if you account for the exponential, it might be five years or so. The problem with all of the autonomous systems, and it's like starts with self-driving cars and even with all the AI, like modern day AI agents, to make them really, useful, you have to solve such a long tail of edge cases, that it's really difficult to make them useful. Like we were promised, self-driving cars, what, like 2007, Sebastian Thrun and Google, and even before that all the challenges, everything. And Elon of course told us it's going to be one year from 2014, and now we still don't have self-driving Teslas everywhere. We have Waymos in SF and some other places, but they're still, like, not perfect. So I think, I expect something similar from self-flying drones and fully autonomous drones, and we saw that firsthand as with each level of autonomy that we're adding, there is a very wide distance between a prototype and something that is ready to be scaled to millions of units and something that has been scaled to millions of units. But the race with like AI coding tools is just insane. So things might accelerate very fast, faster than we can imagine.Noah [00:58:46]: I think your point is that with due to this long tail behavior Level one autonomy as you've defined it, is actually very natural. Like you basically are just solving an image recognition and tracking system.Yaroslav [00:59:02]: It's actually interesting that you say it that way, and I thought about this the very same way, and we have this joke that there are like 200 companies in Ukraine which are trying to solve last mile, targeting or terminal guidance. It seems like we're like the only company that actually solved that because even that problem-Noah [00:59:22]: I'm not saying it's, I'm not saying it's trivial, but it's at least something that you imagine given our current state.Yaroslav [00:59:26]: Like us and Eric Schmidt, like Eric Schmidt's companies are pretty good.Yaroslav [00:59:29]: Like, I actually have lots of respect to what they're doing, and they're, they have been practically influential and helpful on the battlefield, and they have good engineering.Noah [00:59:38]: I wasn't, I wasn't saying it's trivial. I'm just saying this is a something naturally adaptive based upon things that we know work, well. But some of the other domains that where you do have to make decisions and you have a long tail become much harder, and you worry about edge cases more.Yaroslav [00:59:57]: Like the more, the more complex behavior you're trying to simulate, the more edge cases there are right? The more ways to do it wrong there are. And then there are different approaches. It's like if you think about, if you read academic papers about robotics, right? You sort of the robot is represented as something that has the sort of sensor input, and then you have three, levels of sort of logics or decision-making, which are perception, planning, and control, and then you have actuators as output.So pre-neural nets, you would do perception output and control all with classic logics, right? Then, with AlexNet and computer vision, you could do perception with neural nets and the rest with logic. You cannot currently do each of those separately with neural nets, each of those separately with logics, or you can just have one huge neural net that just takes lots of sensory data. It's not just pixels. Could be sound, could be accelerometer, could be everything, as input, and just outputs the controls. And some of the self-driving car companies are doing that or like, experimenting between different ways of doing that. So you can also, like, think about that and the way you implement those features, also influences how much degrees of freedom the system would have, right? Like control, you can do it classical algorithmic control with common filters and PAD filter, PAD controllers, et cetera, or you can do a neural net, that was trained in a gym with a reinforcement learning, et cetera. And those would be two different behaviors of a system.Noah [01:01:53]: I-- Maybe my point was just much more high level. It'Yaroslav [01:01:56]: Or you can If you go even like, if you go high level, you can, you can like train to like have whatever, like Feifei Li and folks who are doing like physical, sortBrandon [01:02:08]: World modelsYaroslav [01:02:08]: World models, right, physical intelligence, they're trying to make these big models and sort of understand the world and then supposedly you have such model and you can tell a drone, “Okay, like, go over that hill and like, find the bad guys and then get them,”or “Make me a video, make me a photo of the guy smiling and get back to me.” Right? That's one way. Another way you have like these subsystems, like one is navigation, another is finding the person, another is like getting to them to take a photo. And those are again, very different behaviors. And then it's not that one is necessarily better than the other, and we might have more technological ability to do one or another. But all of those systems will exist. And then again, you should always keep in mind that it's only the not only the good guys that are developing these systems, the bad guys are developing these systems as well.China's Drone Supply Chain and the West's Manufacturing GapNoah [01:03:00]: I guess where I'm going with this back to Noah's original thought with the end of the end of the soldier. And so in order to replace-Brandon [01:03:10]: Or at least the end of the rifleman.Noah [01:03:11]: Or the end of the rifleman, yeah.Yaroslav [01:03:13]: I'm not seeing that very close, and it was like I'm, as much as I'm a lover of sci-fi and all of that and a technologist, the more I try to beYaroslav [01:03:27]: Like the I try to have certain humility about these things, and like the military, domain and there was just so much human history and blood and tears, dedicated to sort of understanding this art of war and perfecting it and so on. There is so much knowledge in there that I don't feel like I even started to comprehend, a lot of that. But one thing that I really understood is that even though drones are now making eighty percent of the casualties, you go to the actual officers, you talk to the actual, like, brigade commanders, corps commanders, and they explain to you, how all of it fits together, how when you're thinking about an operation that involves a couple thousand people to get this piece of land, out of the enemy's hands, deoccu deoccupy it, how it is so complex, it involves, dozens of different types of drones and then land operations and reconnaissance operations, psychological operations and then aviations and tanks and logistics and all kinds of these different assets. So modern warfare is really very complex, and the fact that the drones are the latest, coolest thing, and then the AI is latest, coolest thing, doesn't mean that now it's that and only that right? So yeah. Whoever's looking into that I think should realize that it's not just what the press talks about, that the reality is much more difficult, much more complex.Brandon [01:05:17]: Let's talk about China and China's manufacturing capabilities. So suppose that someone, like suppose the United States went to war with China. AndYaroslav [01:05:26]: I hope not.Brandon [01:05:27]: I hope not as well. And then but suppose that drones were very essential to that war of all the types of drones that we're talking about here, and that suppose that China said, “All right, well, you need X and Y and Z, to make those drones to fight us, and we control the production of X and Y and Z, so we're just going to cut you right off, and now you have no drones.”Brandon [01:05:47]: I know that a number of countries, including Ukraine and Taiwan, have been making moves to China-proof their drone productions that China couldn't do that. Examples of things they might be able to cut off might include rare earths, fiber optic cable that you were talking about before, various other things that where even if they don't control one hundred percent of the production, they control enough of the production that would be extremely expensive to produce it without relying on Chinese sources. Or the market's fragmented enough, et cetera. What do you see as China's key bottlenecks, and how easy are those to overcome in terms of China-proofing drone production in case of a war against China?Yaroslav [01:06:30]: Let me start with a saying that -Although China does not sell directly to Ukraine and it does sell directly to Russia, a lot of Ukrainian supply chains, they start in China, right?Yaroslav [01:06:49]: We're not in a conflict with China, and we would not want to be in a conflict with China. And we'd hope that China stays a neutral power between Ukraine and Russia and the US as well. That said, the scenario that you're describing, everything is much worse.Yaroslav [01:07:11]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced four million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world.Yaroslav [01:07:19]: China can produce four billion of these FPV drones.Yaroslav [01:07:23]: China can make them not drones with propellers, but fixed-wing drones, which go not forty kilometers far, but maybe two to three hundred kilometers inland.

Dr Jade McGlynn is a British researcher — Research Fellow in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, Senior Associate at CSIS in Washington DC, and head of the Ukraine and Russia programme at KCL's Centre for Statecraft and National Security. (Note: she uses she/her pronouns.) She holds a DPhil from Oxford, is a fluent Russian and Ukrainian speaker, and now splits her time between the UK and Ukraine — primarily Kharkiv and the eastern de-occupied territories. She is the author of Russia's War (Polity, 2023) and Memory Makers: The Politics of the Past in Putin's Russia (Bloomsbury, 2023). She is a Leverhulme Early Career Research Fellow whose six-year award funds research into Russia's use of history in strategic communications towards Africa, China, Germany and the Western Balkans.She is — uniquely among Western academic specialists on this war — explicitly non-neutral. As she states on her Substack: "I am not neutral in this war. I want Ukraine to win, and I want Russia to lose."----------BUY BRILLIANT UKRAINIAN CLOTHING:https://забой.укр/shop ----------LINKS:https://smalldeedsbigwar.substack.com/https://jademcglynn.com/https://twitter.com/DrJadeMcGlynnhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-jade-mcglynn-341357209/https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ceelbas/jade-mcglynn-oxfordhttps://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/dr-jade-mcglynnhttps://www.csis.org/people/jade-mcglynn----------BOOKS:Memory Makers: The Politics of the Past in Putin's Russia (2023)Russia's War (2023)Rethinking Period Boundaries: New Approaches to Continuity and Discontinuity in Modern European History and Culture (2022)----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Car4Ukrainehttps://car4ukraine.com/en-US/campaignsDzyga's Pawhttps://dzygaspaw.com/projectsSuperhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/----------PLATFORMS:Substack: https://substack.com/@siliconcurtainTwitter: https://twitter.com/CurtainSiliconLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finkjonathan/Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6NO7y93zG11JMtqm----------DESCRIPTION:Dr. Jade McGlynn: Why the West Misreads Russia—Deterrence, Hybrid War, and Learning from UkraineJonathan interviews King's College London War Studies research fellow Dr. Jade McGlynn about the war's historical significance, Western “strategic blindness,” and how teleological assumptions about liberal democracy undermined deterrence toward a revisionist Russia. McGlynn argues Russia uses nuclear signaling as everyday coercion, exploits Western self-deterrence, and conducts long-running manipulation by targeting societal weak points, making resilience depend on trust and social cohesion. They discuss Russia's expansionist pattern until meeting a firm frontier, the need to impose asymmetric costs in the hybrid domain, and the West's performative messaging and slow procurement cycles versus Ukraine's rapid wartime innovation. McGlynn warns Russia's aims remain eliminating Ukrainian sovereignty and testing NATO if successful, stresses cooperation with Ukraine as Europe's key security guarantee, and describes work to build an occupied-territories insights hub to better document occupation realities.----------

PREVIEW FOR TOMORROW: Peter Huessy discusses the lack of nuclear education among young national security officials,. He warns that Russia and China now deploy battlefield nuclear weapons to win conflicts, moving far beyond Cold War deterrence strategies today. (1)1953

There are two wars being fought right now in Iran: a military one, which the United States is dominating on all fronts, and a political one, which is proving more difficult than the former. Why? President Donald Trump has a lot to contend with right now: the MAGA base, the crazy Democrat opposition, the midterms, the economy, the charge that he's too influenced by Israel, and the general repulsion of the American people for anything to do with the Middle East, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today's edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words:” (00:00) Two Wars Framework (01:19) Why Not Decimate Iran (02:43) MAGA Base and Deterrence (04:30) Economy, Midterms, Israel (07:14) No Boots on Ground

Subscribe to Inside Call me Back to listen to our 3-part series with Ronen Bergman ____ Subscribe to Ark News Daily ____ Is the war heading towards a ground assault or a push for a deal? To explore out the possibilities, Dan is joined by Ark Media contributor Nadav Eyal and Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. In this episode: - Two Tracks, One War: Escalation vs. Diplomacy - Inside the Air Campaign: What's Been Degraded—and What Hasn't - Iran's Mindset: Why Tehran Thinks It's Winning - The Strait of Hormuz: Leverage, Illusion, or Real Control? - Diplomacy During War: Contradiction or Strategy? - What a U.S. Ground Operation Could Look Like - Energy, Escalation, and Regional Spillover Risks - Endgames: Deal, Deterrence, or Something Bigger? More Ark Media: Want to join Ark Media? Check out our careers page for new openings. Explore Israel Votes Listen to For Heaven's Sake Listen to What's Your Number? Watch Call me Back on YouTube Newsletters | Ark Media | Amit Segal | Nadav Eyal Instagram | Ark Media | Dan X | Dan Dan Senor & Saul Singer's book, The Genius of Israel Get in touch Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Patricio Spadavecchia, Yuval Semo

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/2KKwJTeSEA8 Newsletter: https://bit.ly/LowdownNews Website: https://bit.ly/Afterburn_Website Merch: https://bit.ly/AfterburnMerch Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/theafterburnpodcast     The United States operates roughly 19 military sites across the Middle East — 8 of them permanent. For decades that presence was the strategy. Deterrence through presence. If you can see us, you won't mess with us.That calculus may be changing.In this video I break down the US basing problem in the Middle East — what it looked like going into the Iran war, what's happened since Operation Epic Fury began, and the uncomfortable question nobody wants to answer: are these bases now a liability?Five US Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Al Udeid — the crown jewel of US air operations in the region and home to the Combined Air Operations Center — has been a consistent Iranian target. Iran sent a direct message to Jordan warning its population to pressure their government to remove US forces. And Gulf states hosting US bases have absorbed billions in economic damage specifically because they allowed the US to operate from their soi Air Force Officer Qualifying Test (AFOQT) Prep with AFOQT Wingman https://afoqtwingman.com/Code: AFTERBURN for 10% off