Podcasts about magellan strategies

Good Morning, Colorado, you're listening to the Daily Sun-Up with the Colorado Sun. It's Monday June 21st   Today - As Colorado sees a rapid spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant, public health officials are urging anyone who hasn't been vaccinated to get their shot.    Before we begin, let's go back in time with some Colorado history adapted from historian Derek R Everett's book “Colorado Day by Day”:   Today we're going back to June 21st, 1997 when world leaders got together at the Denver Public Library for the Summit of the Eight. Participants included the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Germany, Italy, Russia, and France. Members of the European Union also attended as observers. For four days Denver was transformed into what felt like a high security world's fair    Now, our feature story.    Colorado is seeing rapid spread of the Delta coronavirus variant, which appears to be the most transmissible mutation of the virus to date. While most vaccinated people will have strong protection against the variant, public health officials are urging the unvaccinated - who make up most of those now being hospitalized with coronavirus - to get their shot. Colorado Sun reporters John Ingold and Thy Vo talk about the Delta variant and the ongoing COVID risks for the unvaccinated.    To read John's story about the Delta COVID variant, visit coloradosun.com.   Thanks for listening. Finally, here are a few stories you should know about today:   Companies that are hiring remote employees are saying in their job listings that Colorado workers need not apply. They're protesting a new rule that requires postings for work in Colorado to include a salary range and a description of benefits. This transparency doesn't sit well with at least 90 companies, including Twitter, Airbnb, Lime, CBRE and McKesson, all of which have a significant footprint in Colorado. According to the Colorado Excluded database run by a software engineer, these companies all say their remote jobs may not be performed in Colorado.   2020 was a great year for PERA, the retirement plan for state and school district employees. But even the 17.4 percent return on its investment was enough to fix the fund's financial problems. The bumps the fund hit in the road include that the state of Colorado did not make the $220 million payment it was supposed to last year because of pandemic worries. And the year ended with two to eight percent fewer employees from state and local governments and school districts paying into the plan.   A survey of 545 Colorado adults conducted by conservative-leaning Magellan Strategies showed that 90 percent of Colorado adults who are registered as Democrats have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Among Colorado adults who are registered as unaffiliated voters, 76% have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. And only 57% of Republicans said they have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.    For more information on all of these stories, visit our website, www.coloradosun.com. Now, a quick message from our editor. The Colorado Sun is non-partisan and completely independent. We're always dedicated to telling the in-depth stories we need today more than ever. And The Sun is supported by readers and listeners like you.   Right now, you can head to ColoradoSun.com and become a member. Starting at $5 per month for a basic membership and if you bump it up to $20 per month, you'll get access to our exclusive politics and outdoors newsletters. Thanks for starting your morning with us and don't forget to tune in again tomorrow. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Good Morning, Colorado, you’re listening to the Daily Sun-Up. It’s Tuesday April 27th, and even though there’s a lot of turmoil right now we’re feeling lucky to start the day with you.   Today - Gross Reservoir continues to be the subject of court rulings. So, what’s the latest on the fight over expanding?   But before we begin, let’s go back in time with some Colorado history adapted from historian Derek R Everett’s book “Colorado Day by Day”:   Today, we take you back to April 27th, 1917 when an explosion in the Hastings Mine killed 121 miners. It earned the site the dubious distinction of Colorado’s worst industrial disaster. An investigation later determined that an illegal use of matches to light a lamp had caused the blast. Work in the mine resumed later that year, but it closed for good in 1923.   Now, our feature story.   Owned by Denver Water but located in Boulder County, Gross Reservoir supplies water from both sides of the Continental Divide to Front Range residents. But the reservoir has been anything but smooth sailing and continues to be the subject of court rulings. Reporter Michael Booth talks with Lucy Haggard about the latest update on the fight over expanding the reservoir.   To read more about Gross Reservoir, go to coloradosun.com.   And Before we go, here are a few stories that you should know about today:   U.S. Census Bureau data released Monday confirmed that Colorado will receive an eighth congressional seat. The state’s population increased almost 15% in 2020, roughly double that of the national increase. An independent commission is tasked with redrawing the state’s districts, but the detailed data necessary for that task likely won’t be available until September. Multiple groups across the state are asking that communities with similar interests, such as agriculture, get grouped together in the newly redrawn map. https://coloradosun.com/2021/04/26/colorado-8th-congressional-seat/    A long-awaited bill in the statehouse to decrease health care costs will no longer include a public insurance option. House Bill 1232 will instead require private insurers to offer a highly regulated, standardized plan. Providers won’t be required to accept the plans under certain conditions, including if their provider network reflects the diversity of consumers. The bill’s changes will happen through an amendment, which will be considered in the House Health and Insurance Committee on Tuesday. https://coloradosun.com/2021/04/26/colorado-public-option-health-care-bill-update/    A majority of Coloradans feel the state has an affordable housing problem, and they want the government to fix it. A new poll from Magellan Strategies reflects the frustrations of a hyper housing market for renters and owners alike, especially along the Front Range. Researchers found the coronavirus pandemic has also had a significant impact on changing public opinion. Support for affordable housing policy differed along political party lines, with the most support among Democrats, then independents, and the least support among Republicans.   For more information on all of these stories, visit our website, www.coloradosun.com. And don’t forget to tune in again tomorrow.   The Colorado Sun is non-partisan and completely independent. We're always dedicated to telling the in-depth stories we need today more than ever. And The Sun is supported by readers and listeners like you.   Right now, you can head to ColoradoSun.com and become a member. Starting at $5 per month for a basic membership and if you bump it up to $20 per month, you’ll get access to our exclusive politics and outdoors newsletters. Thanks for starting your morning with us and don’t forget to tune in again tomorrow. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guest, David Flaherty, Boulder County-based conservative polling firm Magellan Strategies

Good Morning, Colorado, and welcome to the Daily Sun-Up from the Colorado Sun. It’s Friday February 26th, and we’re lucky to start the day with you. Today - The debate over standardized testing has intensified during the pandemic. But before we begin, let’s go back in time with some Colorado history adapted from historian Derek R Everett’s book “Colorado Day by Day”: Today, we’re going back to February 26th, 1893 Anton Woode, who was accused of murdering a man on his family farm near Brighton, appeared at the Arapahoe County Courthouse. A fascinated public followed the case, in large part because the defendant was only eleven years old. Woode was sentenced to 25 years at the penitentiary, but he escaped jail at age 18.   Now our feature story.   Coloradans have debated the merits of standardized testing for years, and that debate has only intensified as the pandemic has disrupted learning and widened learning disparities.. Education reporter Erica Breunlin talks with Lucy Haggard about the arguments in favor of and against standardized testing, and how national decisions are influencing the conversation back home.To read more about standardized testing in Colorado, go to coloradosun.com.  Finally, here are a few stories that you should know about today:   Coloradans’ willingness to get a coronavirus vaccine may vary by political affiliation, according to a new Magellan Strategies poll. 55% of registered voters who have not been vaccinated would be interested in getting a shot, with 89% of Democrats polled saying they would get vaccinated but only 29% of Republicans agreeing. Previous polls have also shown a partisan split on vaccine interest, though state health officials have indicated low rates of vaccine hesitancy so far.   Native tribal leaders argue the U.S. soldier statue that was torn down in front of the state Capitol during protests this summer should be replaced with one that mends racist harms. Tribes associate the statue with the Sand Creek Massacre, when U.S. soldiers killed 230 Cheyenne and Arapaho people in 1864. In the statue’s place, tribal leaders propose a statue depicting a native woman mourning the attack. A legislative committee will decide whether to replace the statue within a few weeks. https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/25/sand-creek-statue-colorado-capitol/    An upcoming bill in the statehouse seeks to prevent some of the worst outcomes if a storm or other force disrupts Colorado’s energy supply and transmission. The bill would create a Colorado Energy Transmission Authority to distribute the burden of paying for infrastructure improvements and power surges among the varying energy providers. While it has bipartisan support in the legislature, some companies argue it’s unnecessary and duplicates current partnerships. For more information on all of these stories, visit our website, www.coloradosun.com. Now, a quick message from our editor.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Winger of Magellan Strategies gives us a final look at incoming vote totals for Colorado on Election Day.

We are joined by David Flaherty, Founder and CEO of Magellan Strategies, to discuss how the rise of unaffiliated voters in Colorado changes the politics of our great state.

Our favorite Uber driver, Josh from Fort Collins, calls in to try and have Dan convert his father from Democrat to Republican - with mixed results. David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies checks in with the latest polling data on Cory Gardner in the U.S. Senate race, where the incumbent Republican is outperforming President Trump in favorability statewide.

Dan discusses President Trump's rally in Lexington, Kentucky on Monday night, highlighting a pro-life theme trumpeted for supporters. David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies joins the conversation on Election Day to discuss voter turnout by party - and the potential fate for both Proposal CC and Proposal DD.

Leland Conway is in for Dan, talking about a recent Magellan Strategies poll which shows President Trump with an 18% net unfavorable rating (57-39) among Colorado voters. Also, while Trump enjoys tremendous support among Republicans nationwide - Brian Riedel of the Manhattan Institute discusses with Leland the perils of continuing astronomical budget deficits and adding to the national debt. Finally, Leland explores who was actually running the so-called "Mueller Investigation," if not Mueller himself, after a disastrous performance by the former Special Counsel in his Capitol Hill testimony.

Denver Post editorial page editor Chuck Plunkett talks about the paper’s future after waging wat in print and online against its corporate owners Alden Global Capital. But first, David Flaherty of Colorado-based Magellan Strategies outlines the way political campaigns profile voters and use of social media. The Colorado Department of Agriculture, talks about Colorado losers and winners in Trump’s trade battles. And, your gun questions answered.

In this episode, we discuss the latest fundraising totals for the Democrat and Republican candidates for Governor and other down ballot races. Segment #1 Fundraising Totals for Governor In the first segment we discuss how much money candidates raised in the election for Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer and Congressional District 5. Republican Victor Mitchell - $3 million, $2.7 million on hand Republican Doug Robinson - $208,000, personal loan of $57,000 Republican George Brauchler - $183,000, including $12,700 transfer Republican Lew Gaiter – Larimer County Commissioner - $6,270 Republican Steve Barlock – Trump supporter – just announced Democrat Mike Johnston, State Senator, $301,365, first quarter $632,721 Democrat Cary Kennedy, former Treasurer, Deputy Mayor of Denver - $339,680 Democrat Jared Polis, Congressman - $250,000 self-check Democrat Ed Perlmutter, Congressman - $340,000 Attorney General Republican Cynthia Coffman, incumbent - $8,050 Democrat Phil Weiser, former dean of CU Law School, - $355,535 Democrat Brad Levin, - $117,102 Democrat Michael Dougherty, Jefferson County prosecutor - $51,845 Democrat Joe Salazar, Thornton State Rep., - $13,262 Treasurer Republican Justin Everett - $20,348 Republican Brita Horn - $17,655 Democrat Steve Lebsock - $14,014 Colorado CD-05 Primary Republican Doug Lamborn - $73,000, $62,000 in PAC money Republican Owen Hill - $228,000 Republican Darryl Glenn - $150,000 from US Senate Campaign Segment #2 The Trump Administration’s Staff Changes In this segment, we have a short discussion about the departure of Sean Spicer and other pending staff changes at the White House. We also discuss Attorney General Jeff Sessions being under fire from the President. Segment #3 Ellen Singer, Magellan Strategies intern from Georgetown University In the final segment we talk with our intern and what she has learned from working at Magellan Strategies.  

In this episode, we take a break from current events and discuss the fundamental steps of putting together a successful data driven political campaign. We walk through all the steps that we follow for our clients so you have a better understanding of how data and campaign strategy come together.  The Steps to Run a Successful Data Driven Political Campaign Review voter registration and past voter turnout demographics for the state or district. This exercise will tell you what voter subgroups are a priority and which ones are not. If you work with Magellan you will also be able access our modeled voter data to identify the “True Middle” voters that will likely decide the election. After compiling voter data and identifying subgroups of voters that are important, you can put together a budget. This is very important, because you will learn how much money you need to raise and what you can afford to do. We strongly recommend putting together the budget using a gantt chart format. This format will help you know when you intend to spend money and how you are spending your money. Field a benchmark survey of likely voters. Without this kind of survey, you are basically guessing what your message will be and that is never a good idea. The survey results will empower you to build out your campaign strategy, messaging, and have a good handle on what you need to, where you need to go and what you need to say. The next step is to use the survey to design the campaign website, bio palm cards, digital and social media assets, direct mail, radio and television messaging. Consistency in messaging across all mediums is very important. We recommend for our clients different vendors for your direct mail, digital, television and radio production.   Make sure you are using the most accurate and up to data voter file before you begin doing any voter contact programs. Voter files that are directly purchased from a county clerk or secretary of state contain voters that have moved or passed away. Therefore, be sure to use the most current, phone enhanced voter file before you deliver any direct mail, phone calls, volunteer activities or door-to-door efforts. Using a solid voter file will save the campaign time, money and increase the efficiency of all efforts. Predictive voter modeling and voter segmentation is powerful because it allows you to “go beyond” the information on a typical voter file. Magellan Strategies has been modeling voter data for more than 10 years. Voter modeling is very powerful to a campaign because it allows you to target “True Middle” voters that are likely to determine the outcome of your campaign.     Voter opinion tracking surveys are short surveys that tell you where things stand. These surveys are used to measure the campaign’s progress and answer vital questions. Are we winning or losing? What is the profile of an undecided voter so we can target them? Are voters familiar enough with our candidate, or more importantly do they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of you?  Without this information, you are basically guessing where things are and are likely to make uninformed decisions that could cost you the campaign. In the final weeks of the campaign a strong get-out-the-vote and voter ID program will ensure that your supporters are voting. Using daily ballot return reports that Magellan Strategies compiles, you will know who is voting and who is not. The bottom line is a political campaign that incorporates data from surveys, voter files, predictive modeling and raw data sources will be in a much better position to win than one that does not use data to make decisions. That is what a data-driven campaign is all about!   

In the debut episode of Smarter Politics, the team at Magellan Strategies break down what determines if a poll is right or wrong, how polls are conducted (including the differences in robocalling and cell phone interviews), online interviews, weighting, and why conducting an opinions survey on social media networking sites like Facebook and Twitter present big challenges to pollsters. In this episode: Segment #1 - Voter Demographics What are they and why are they important Colorado’s Registration Demographics as an example Voter demographics from the 2012 Colorado general election What demographic questions are important and what is irrelevant for a campaign Segment #2 – Survey Sample What is it and where do pollsters get it? Telephone sample, online sample, voter file sample Cell phone vs. landline issues for telephone and coverage problems with younger and minority voters What is an online panel and what problems does it create with voter surveys The potential of Facebook surveys Segment #3 – Weighting How weighting works Weighted and unweighted telephone survey results How statistical software actually works Segment #4 – How to Use Survey Results to Make Decisions Candidate/incumbent image rating info and how it is used to define or introduce a candidate to certain voters. Issue preference  

Welcome to Smarter Politics, the Magellan Strategies Podcast, I’m David Flaherty, CEO and Founder of Magellan Strategies. However you came across our podcast, we are glad to have you. If you’re looking for breathless coverage of the Presidential Election, or listen to a so-called “political strategist” commenting on each and every word of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, or a bean counter dissect the latest polls, you’re welcome to stick around but this is not that kind of podcast. That’s not to say that we won’t talk about the polls, the political headlines, and public policy debates, believe me we will have plenty of that. Each week, we’re going to take our listeners on a deep dive into how smart campaigns really work. We are going to talk about how smart campaigns target voters using data. We are going to talk about how to understand what voters really think using survey research. We are going to talk about why all voters are not all the same, and how smart campaigns know which voters to contact and which ones to leave alone. Finally, we are going to talk about what voters could care less about, and how candidates make mistakes and really screw it up, in both political parties.     Those are just a few examples of the kind of conversation you’re going to hear each week as I’m joined by two other members of the Magellan Strategies team, Courtney Gibbon and Ryan Winger. Our goal at the end of each episode is for you, our listeners be more educated and informed about how to use voter data, survey research, data mining and learn effective political strategies so you can practice Smarter Politics. If you have any suggestions for topics for future episodes, you can contact us at smarterpolitics@magellanstrategies.com or send a tweet, the podcast handle is   @smartpolitics77. Please stay tuned, our first episode coming out very soon.

This week we continue our conversation with Republican pollster, David Flaherty, in Part 2 of our Polling 101 series.   In Part 2, we go further in depth on polling and survey research and how it can help you win your election.  We discuss what a good polling plan looks like and the important work that is required of the campaign in order to get the best results from your benchmark poll. We then go into the 2016 Presidential Election and specifically the challenges facing pollsters trying to measure support for 16 different candidates. David then gives his advice on how people should evaluate and how the media should report on the public polls in the presidential election.   David Flaherty has nearly 25 years of experience working with data and voter files and is known as an expert in mapping technology and redistricting. As a pollster, this deep background in demographics and data helps Magellan Strategies get more accurate results in their research.   David spent 14 years in Washington, DC working for the Republican National Committee, the US House of Representatives and Americans for Prosperity. In 2006, David moved to Colorado where he started Magellan Strategies. Get the Polling 101 Presentation Slides and check out the Show Notes at www.PoliticalTradeSecrets.com

This week, we present Part 1 of our Polling 101 series with Republican Pollster, David Flaherty, President of Magellan Strategies. In Part 1, David Flaherty lays out everything you could possibly want to know about how polls are conducted, how to effectively use them, and what can be done to meet the challenges facing pollsters over the next decade. We talk about why so many polls recently have been wrong, including the recent British elections, the Greek Referendum, and former Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s surprise defeat. David Flaherty has nearly 25 years of experience working with data, voter files, mapping technology, and in the redistricting process. As a pollster, this deep knowledge of data, is a real asset when it comes to understanding a population that you are trying to survey.  David spent 14 years in Washington, DC working for organizations like the Republican National Committee, the US House of Representatives, and Americans for Prosperity. In 2006, David moved to Colorado and started Magellan Strategies. David and his team provide survey research, predictive data modeling, and voter data analysis services to political and public affairs clients. Get more details on the show notes at www.PoliticalTradeSecrets.com