The Writ Podcast

The final days of a campaign can be hectic. The Conservatives had to pull together a couple of advertisements on short notice. Every party is sending their leader on a cross-country tour and volunteers on the ground are pulling out all the stops to ID their supporters in order to get them out to the polls on election day.There's a lot going on in this last week before election day. Ads, tour, get-out-the-vote. So, what's the story on how parties actually get it done?Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers have been joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and they're back one last time!Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She's principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The tension rises and the drama builds. The results have been trickling in all night — first it was too early to call, then it was too close to call. But, finally, the networks are ready. The anchor cuts off whoever is speaking and says “we're ready to make a projection.”There's a brief pause as the graphics come on the screen and the music pipes in. It took a long time, but the network is now ready to project a government. Will it be majority or minority, Liberal or Conservative (or something else)? It's the most dramatic moment of every election night special. But a lot of work goes into making that call. Just how is it done?In this episode of The Writ Podcast, I'm joined by Meg Banks, senior producer, CBC News Elections. I've worked with her on many elections in the past and I'm really pleased she could join me to explain how the decision desk makes its calls. (This is an extra episode of the podcast — I'll be back with another episode tomorrow!) In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We're entering a critical phase of this election campaign as the leaders face-off in two debates and advance voting begins this weekend. The polls suggest the margin could be tightening somewhat between Mark Carney's Liberals and Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Could the debate shake things up?On this episode of The Writ Podcast, the Pollster Panel is back to survey the current landscape, discuss the reliability of the polls and what they may or may not be missing, and how public opinion research will be used by all the political parties in this final stretch of the campaign.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and was the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Parties proudly present their slate of candidates in every election shortly before dumping some of them. It's an inevitable part of every campaign — rejecting candidates who don't meet a party's vetting standards and ejecting candidates when rival parties have dug up the dirt on them.So, what's the process behind candidate vetting? And how do parties go about compiling, and then using, opposition research?Plus, Pierre Poilievre has been putting on some massive rallies. How are these organized — and are they worth the effort?Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers are joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning.Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She's principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We're deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney's to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race?This week on The Writ Podcast, I'm joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and was the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Mark Carney kicked off Canada's election campaign on Sunday and already parties are discovering that their best laid plans can go awry very quickly. So, what goes on behind the scenes when parties draw up their strategies for a campaign and what happens when they have to react to the unexpected?Throughout this election, I'll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and help make some sense of just what is happening out on the hustings.Vandana Kattar was the director of operations, outreach and planning for former prime minister Justin Trudeau and was one of the co-hosts of the Race to Replace podcast during the past Liberal leadership contest.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She's principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We're apparently only days away from an election call and the polls suggest that Mark Carney's Liberals have taken the pole position ahead of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. So, what should we make of these emerging trends and how should they inform each party's strategy heading into this campaign?Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks?This week on The Writ Podcast, I'm joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and was the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Canada's political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet?Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk?Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and was the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Chrystia Freeland's resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here?There's a lot to unpack, and this week I'm joined by the CBC's Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail's Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:* Apple Podcasts* Spotify* Overcast* Pocket Casts* Podcast Addict* YouTube Music* RSS Feed This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week's byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015. We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, how things are shaping up for Doug Ford in Ontario and just who is the favourite in next week's Alberta provincial byelection in Lethbridge-West.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau's promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?On this week's episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston's PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn't the first time it's happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston's PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh's NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia's election and Ontario's apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump's support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn't the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier's chair but his own seat.What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election?The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and was the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week's episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you'd like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What's next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals' shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau's leadership. There's also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday's vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford's Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn't going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn't a new episode of The Writ Podcast, you'll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.As suggested in the podcast, if you'd like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan's campaign officially got underway. We'll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call.Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.THE NUMBERS: This week's members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here. We'll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive.To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I'm joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman, legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitras, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, we break down some of the latest federal polls and what they might mean for election timing. Then, we delve into the three provincial campaigns in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, where polls raise more questions than they do provide answers about who is going to win. We also look at the Ontario byelection results in Bay of Quinte.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday's writ drop in New Brunswick.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau's Liberals and Jagmeet Singh's NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible.But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I'm joined this week by the pollster panel.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad's B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby's chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn't wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds. THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We'll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Une vraie course au PLQ ? Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ? Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition.But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October?On this week's episode of The Writ Podcast, I'm joined by Adam Hunter, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in Regina, to look ahead to Saskatchewan's upcoming campaign.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I discuss the latest poll showing the Conservatives narrowly ahead in Quebec. We also chat about a new poll from British Columbia and the launch of the Canadian Future Party, we answer listener questions and put our wits to the test with a Quiz!In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party's brand?On this week's episode of The Writ Podcast, I'm joined by Jacques Poitras, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to hold elections in the coming months.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose?In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including:* Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?* Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?* Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?* Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Toronto–St. Paul's byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives?To break it all down, I'm joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul's was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l'ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond.Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau's standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à Québec Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby's NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad's party.It's a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia's provincial election in October, so this week I'm joined by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, to break it all down.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we talk about the news out of Ottawa on the reduction in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, as well as a new report on foreign interference. Will anything move the polls? Plus, with two floor-crossings in British Columbia, is B.C. United finished? We also chat about new provincial polls out of Quebec and Alberta, and answer questions from the mailbag. To close, Philippe tests me with a competition-level Quiz.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Des congrès, des congrès partout Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias. Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à trois au Québec entre le Bloc, les libéraux et les conservateurs, mais est-ce réellement la tendance actuelle? Nous décortiquons les plus récentes données. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP's victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October's provincial election.But Tuxedo won't be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Transcona in the next few months. The federal NDP, not nearly as buoyant in the polls as their provincial cousins, could have a fight on its hands to hold off the Conservatives in this seat.To discuss the first months of Wab Kinew's government and the upcoming electoral contests taking place in Winnipeg, as well as how the city is shaping up ahead of the 2025 federal election, I'm joined by Ian Froese, the CBC's provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we chat about the upcoming byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's and what's at stake for the Liberals in what has traditionally been a safe seat. We also discuss the results in the Pictou West byelection in Nova Scotia, the upcoming Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and new polls out of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Cette semaine au balado, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party's polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip.What's behind Ford's enduring support, and what's the state of Bonnie Crombie's Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to the next provincial campaign in 2026?To explain the state of Ontario politics today, I'm joined this week by Sabrina Nanji, author of Queen's Park Observer, and John Michael McGrath, writer and co-host of the #onpoli podcast for TVO.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we try to figure what is going on in British Columbia as more and more polls show the B.C. Conservatives closing the gap with (or even beating) David Eby's NDP. We also break down the results of last week's two provincial byelections in Ontario. In the mailbag, we tackle the polling woes of Justin Trudeau's Liberals and more. Finally, Philippe has another Quiz this week — though one that's a tad easier than last week's.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election.In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on me in my weakened state in this week's edition of The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Québec solidaire en désarroi Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages au Québec, de l'avance du Parti québécois et des appuis au PLQ chez les communautés anglophones et allophones au Québec. De plus, nous analysons la démission de la co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire, Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Est-ce que Québec solidaire devra effectuer des réformes à l'interne pour espérer une croissance de ses appuis ? Les membres de QS accepteront-ils des tels changements ? Nous discutons ensuite des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui nous indiquent que l'écart entre les libéraux et conservateurs semble se creuser davantage. Selon Léger, Abacus Data et Nanos, le PCC mène maintenant par 20 points (et plus) au pays. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don't officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP's Jagmeet Singh hasn't committed to supporting it. What's behind his party's will-they-or-won't-they dance?Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the budget to pass to avoid an election. They also hope it will start a positive trend that will help them close the gap on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. But early indications are that it isn't having the desired effect — at least not yet.To break down the politics of the budget and where things go from here, I'm joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC's Aaron Wherry.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the latest numbers on how Canadians are reacting to the budget. We also delve into some polling controversy in Quebec where two different polls report two very different situations in the province.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Le troisième référendum : une « certitude » Philippe et Éric discutent du discours de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon lors du conseil national du Parti québécois, lors duquel il a affirmé qu'il y aura assurément un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avant la fin de la décennie. Était-ce une bonne stratégie ? Est-ce que l'aiguille des sondages bougera suite à ce discours (d'un côté comme de l'autre) ? Nous discutons ensuite du départ du whip de la CAQ, Éric Lefebvre, qui portera les couleurs du Parti conservateur de Pierre Poilievre aux prochaines élections fédérales. Est-ce que d'autres députés caquistes pourraient être tentés de faire le saut dans la prochaine année ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What's behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial?Plus, what position does Trudeau's jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the New Democrats losing three veteran MPs who won't run in the next election, what's the state of the NDP?To break it all down, the political pollsters are back.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau's prime minister's office and the Liberals' pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper's last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about about fresh national polling numbers that suggest the pre-budget rollout the Liberals have embarked upon has not yet had an impact on public opinion. We also discuss the retirement of three veteran NDP MPs and some new poll numbers out of British Columbia and Alberta.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex?In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for me.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Les Gaspésiens triomphent (malgré leur nombre) Philippe et moi discutent de l'abandon du projet de redécoupage de la carte électorale au Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal garderont leurs sièges, alors que les Laurentides et le Centre-du-Québec continueront d'être sous-représentés. Le gouvernement a-t-il manqué de courage dans ce dossier ? Nous discutons ensuite des derniers chiffres fédéraux de Léger au Québec et ailleurs au pays, puis nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et auditeurs. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi.It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it's already over.To break it all down, I'm joined this week by two people who know the Alberta NDP very well. Leah Ward is vice president at Wellington Advocacy and Cheryl Oates is co-host of The Discourse podcast, and both previously served as director of communications for Rachel Notley.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the last week's national polls, as well as some new numbers out of Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, in particular on the Alberta NDP leadership race.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts me to the test with The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: François Legault est-il devenu un boulet pour son parti ? Cette semaine, Philippe et moi discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le PQ a creusé davantage l'écart avec la CAQ et le taux de satisfaction du gouvernement continue de chuter. Sera-t-il possible pour la CAQ de remonter la pente et, pour y arriver, aura-t-elle besoin d'un changement de chef ? Nous décortiquons aussi les chiffres fédéraux du sondage, en particulier les données pour la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Le Bloc aurait-il dépassé les conservateurs à Québec ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls, so I invited David back again on this week's episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time into the demographics of the Canadian electorate.Using a compilation of multiple polls conducted over the last few months, we look at age, gender, education and occupational splits in voting intentions and whether there are any regional differences in each party's voter profiles. We also discuss who those people are who have switched from one party to another and just what makes them tick.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the entry of Naheed Nenshi into the Alberta NDP leadership race. We also chat about the latest national polls, how the premiers are faring and answer listener questions, including on Conservative seat prospects in Quebec and on Vancouver Island.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests my knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Que restera-t-il du PLC au Québec ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Pallas Data pour le Québec. Les appuis aux PQ ont-ils plafonné ? La CAQ a-t-elle freiné sa glissade ?  Nous décortiquons ensuite les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec qui ont mesuré une baisse importante des appuis aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Que resterait-il du PLC au Québec si ces chiffres devaient se concrétiser ? Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric sur des personnalités politiques québécoises. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole. It'll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign?On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I'm joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He's now host of the iPolitics podcast, On Background with Fred DeLorey, and partner at NorthStar Public Affairs. Melissa Cotton spent over 20 years as a volunteer and staffer for the Liberal Party and provincially. She has managed or worked on multiple local election and by-election campaigns and served in several central campaign war rooms.THE NUMBERS: On this week's episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I broke down the latest federal, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada polls and set our over/under lines for the Durham byelection.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8:30 PM Eastern for our livestream of the Durham byelection results on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe