Podcasts about 338canada

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - NDP candidate Tanille Johnson will coming to Gorge Hall on Cortes Island. This is the last in a series of Meet and Greets organized by the Cortes Island Climate Action Network that has also included meetings with Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg and Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash. Conservative candiate Aaron Gunn was also invited, but has not taken advantage of this. As I am going to be off island when Tanille is here, we had an interview ahead of time. Cortes Currents: What's the big question on voters' minds during this election? Tanille Johnson:  “Oh man, there's a lot of big questions right now!Honestly, what I spend most of my day talking about is people are terrified at the possibiloity of having Conservative representation in the federal government, and like ‘what's the strategic vote for North Island Power River?'” “I really end up being in a lot of these conversations, breaking down strategic voting, what it means and apologizing for it. We're in this situation because our Liberal government did not follow through with its promise of proportional representation, which would've allowed people to vote for the person that they felt was going to do the best job for them. We are now essentially getting shoved into a two party system that nobody wants. We don't want to mimic our United States relations to the south, but here we are. That's a big discussion right now across the board. Every riding is talking about it.” “It doesn't discount the real threat of all the ongoing tariffs from Trump. It doesn't discount the threat of annexation that Trump is bringing. It doesn't diminish our healthcare crisis, our housing crisis, or our opioid crisis, but right now it feels like people are most fearful of a Conservative government.” Cortes Currents: Two polls have just come out,—one by Research co suggests you're best placed to stop a Conservative win, the other by Mainstreet Research says it's the Liberals. What do you make of this? Tanille Johnson: “I t honestly doesn't make sense because there is such a stark contrast, there shouldn't be a stark contrast at all. I think it's fairly well known that Mainstreet is operated by Conservative pollsters.” Cortes Currents:   I wasn't aware of that, so I did a quick fact check. There's a list of national polls on the 338Canada website. The vast majority of the 94 polls taken between April 1st and April 21nd, reported that the Liberals were leading in this race, but there are 6 polls that stated the Conservatives were either leading or tied with the Liberals. 5 of those 6 ‘outlying' polls were taken by Mainstream Research. Tanille Johnson: “I think it was 571 people out of like a hundred thousand voters. Like, if you had a hundred thousand people and you only asked 500 of them a question, are you really going to solidly depend on that answer for whatever your decision making is moving forward? I would hope not, because that is a tiny sample size.” Cortes Currents: Tell me some highlights of the campaign for you. Tanille Johnson: “Here's a super funny one. We were door knocking in Campbell River just the other week. I knocked on a door and this gal opened and she was so excited to see me. She kissed both of her hands and then put her hands on either sides of my face. She's like, 'keep doing what you're doing.' It was just so cute and awesome.” “It's been a highlight watching people get creative with their support. There's been some really cool like self-made bumper stickers that say, 'Go Tanille' or 'Vote NDP, Vote Tanille.'" “It was a huge honor to have Megan Hildebrandt donate a vote Tanille Design, to be able to screen print 'Vote Tanille' t-shirts by hand in Powell River. That was super, super cool and amazing.” “It's been really just an honor to travel the whole riding and get to meet people from all over the place and have the time to sit and listen to their concerns.”

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - With just six days remaining until election day, a new poll reveals the Conservatives hold a strong lead in the North Island—Powell River riding. Among the 402 eligible voters surveyed between April 17 and April 19, 45% said they intend to vote for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn. NDP candidate Tanille Johnston trails in second with 23%, followed by Liberal contender Jennifer Lash at 13%. Both Jessica Wegg of the Green Party and Paul Macknight of the People's Party received 2% support, while independent candidate Glen Staples sits at 1%. Meanwhile, 15% of voters remain undecided.There is some good news for retiring MP Rachjel Blaney whose performance was approved by 51% of the respondents. 40% disapproved. Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party is the top-rated federal leader among voters in this constituency, with 53% support. He is followed by Liberal leader Mark Carney at 42%, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 41%, Green Party co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault at 27%, and People's Party leader Maxime Bernier at 19%. Poilievre draws strong backing from men (53%), as well as from voters aged 35 to 54 (48%) and those 55 and older (49%). In contrast, Carney leads among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with 45% support, and the two men have an almost equal following among female votres. (Carney 35%, Poilievre 34%). The poll was sponsored by the David Suzuki Foundation and conducted by Vancouver-based Research Co, led by Mario Canseco, a veteran public opinion researcher since 2003. Canseco is a regular political commentator and columnist for Glacier Media, with work published in the Vancouver Sun, Globe and Mail, and National Observer. In related news, Research co also carried out a National survey which found that 43% of decided voters would vote Liberal as opposed to 38% for the Conservatives. This fits a pattern that all but one Canadian pollster has been reporting this week. The exception being Mainstreet Research, which reported a Conservative victory in 2 out of 3 surveys. If the election were to take place today CBC Polltracker, which draws upon the data from all polls, states the odds of a Liberal victory 96%. 338Canada states the odds are 90%. Both companies state the most likely scenario is the LIberals will form a majority government. On Vancouver Island, 338Canada's projection is that the four northern ridings will turn Conservative, but the only ‘CPC Safe seat' (which means victory is almost certain) is North Island Powell River. The three south Vancouver Island ridings are all ‘toss-ups', but Elizabeth May now has a slim lead in Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals are ahead by a nose in Victoria and the Conservatives in Esquimalt, Saanich - Sooke.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg came to Gorge Hall, on Wednesday, April 16th, 2025. She won't be the next Member of Parliament for North Island Powell River. “We commissioned a poll at our riding level. I think they made the phone calls March 20th to 24th, and it matched what 338Canada is saying. The Conservatives will likely win and the progressive vote will be split pretty evenly by the NDP and the Liberals. As long as the NDP and the Liberals are both running, neither party will get in,” she explained. “My numbers were less than 10%. If you added me to either one, it wasn't going to cross the threshold of the number of votes the Conservatives were expected to get. We are actually saying this is a great time to feel like you can vote Green because it's not a wasted vote.  We need 2% nationally to maintain official party status, which means we get resources in Ottawa, we get to participate in the question period, we get to be on committees, that kind of thing. Without that 2% national level, we lose official party status and we lose the ability to really participate in government in an effective way.  It really, really matters to us and if you want to be able to have a Green party in the future, when we do get proportional representation, we need to keep as many votes as possible.”  Cortes Currents: How important is it to have a Green presence in the election?  Jessica Wegg: “So, so important.  Shakespeare said, ‘Though she be but little she is fierce' (A MIdsummer's Nights Dream). Greens are little, but we use that little power that we have to come up with big, wild ideas that the big parties aren't going to have.” “They don't want to make people think they're thinking too far outside the box. People are happy with the status quo, generally speaking. They don't want to waiver. That's how the big parties feed, is ‘how do I keep the people who we already have in this box.' But we are thinking of big ideas that nobody else is thinking of and we bring them to the table, we bring them to the big parties that have the power in parliament and we say,' have you even thought about doing something like this?' Or, ‘where is that in your planning?'"   “We do what we can to hold them to account. All of  the Green candidates across the country  are showing up and they're showing that there are people who care. There are people who acknowledge the climate crisis that we're in and we're going to keep showing up.”  “I think it's also important because  Canada  is getting awfully close right now to  a two party system, which is not healthy for a democracy. It's dangerous to have just two parties and we're all falling into one camp or the other. We cannot let that happen. We need to keep showing up as these small parties. We need to keep fighting for presence so that we can have these creative big ideas that nobody else is going to say out loud because they don't want to step on anybody's toes or make anybody uncomfortable with the idea of something new or different or big. We cannot progress as a country without doing new and different and big things. So we need the Green party to show up and keep bringing our creative ideas across the country.”

The upcoming federal election calls for a special edition podcast episode! Join Mark Garcia, CTF/FCE Advocacy and Government Relations Coordinator, as he provides an overview of our election campaign, Our Kids. Canada's Future, and a deep dive election analysis. Qui dit élections fédérales dit édition spéciale de notre balado Source! Joignez-vous à Mark Garcia, coordonnateur de l'action politique et des relations avec les gouvernements de la CTF/FCE, qui présentera une vue d'ensemble de la campagne de la CTF/FCE en vue des élections, intitulée Nos enfants. L'avenir du Canada., ainsi qu'une analyse approfondie de la campagne électorale.(Balado en anglais accompagné de liens vers des ressources en anglais et en français) This episode was recorded on April 15, 2025. Cet épisode a été enregistré le 15 avril 2025.Additional Information / Renseignements supplémentaires Our Kids. Canada's Future Toolkit / Nos enfants. L'avenir du Canada. trousse du contenu partageable : https://intheknow-aucourant.ctf-fce.ca/presskits/40727/federal-election-2025-our-kids-canadas-future-elections-federales2025-nos-enfants-lavenir-du-canadaCanadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Alternative federal budget 2025: https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/alternative-federal-budget-2025/ Centre canadien de politiques alternatives, Budget fédéral alternatif 2025 : https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/budget-federal-alternatif-2025/Check out 338Canada (https://338canada.com/) to learn more about seat projections for next federal government. Consultez Qc125 Canada (https://qc125.com/canada/) pour connaître les projections relatives aux sièges du prochain gouvernement fédéral. Want to receive the Parliamentary Update in your inbox? Fill out the subscription form to be added to the mailing list. Vous voulez recevoir la Mise à jour parlementaire? Remplissez le formulaire d'abonnement pour ajouter votre adresse courriel à notre liste d'envoi : https://ctf-fce.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f3c958efae9f16378eb44e953&id=3899e296c3  The Source podcast is produced by the CTF/FCE in Ottawa, on the traditional unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabe People. / La balado Source est produite à Ottawa, sur le territoire traditionnel non cédé du peuple algonquin anichinabé, par la CTF/FCE. Follow us on social media / Suivez-nous dans les médias sociaux :, Facebook @CTF.FCE, Instagram @ctffce, Bluesky, Twitter @CTFFCEViews expressed do not necessarily represent the policies nor the views of the CTF/FCE. / Les points de vue exprimés dans cet épisode ne représentent pas forcément les principes directeurs ou les points de vue de la CTF/FCE.

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the significant volatility in the financial markets due to the escalating global trade war unleashed by President Trump's “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. Economists and banks are sounding the alarm about the increased risk of a global recession. At the same time, oil prices have fallen by about $US 10/B due to fears of a recession and news that OPEC+ is adding more supply than expected into the market. In Canada, the uncertainty is further compounded by the upcoming federal election scheduled for April 28th, 2025.Content referenced in this podcast:Financial Times, “In charts: winners and losers from Trump's new tariffs” (April 4, 2025)BNN Bloomberg, Trump's tariffs to send U.S. into recession: JP Morgan (April 6, 2025)Polymarket, “ US recession in 2025?”Reuters, “OPEC+ unexpectedly speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops” (April 3, 2025)338Canada, Canadian Federal Election PollingPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - Depending on which election poll you are looking at, the Liberals are leading by anywhere from 5 to 10 points nationally. The last poll to suggest the Conservatives were tied with them was taken by Abacus on February 4, 2025. An Angus Reid poll taken on April 7, 2025 found that in British Columbia the Liberal Party leads by 11 points. It's more difficult to get a breakdown riding by riding. While 338Canada's projections are generally fairly accurate, they are calculated using a mostly proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls. In North Island Powell River there are currently at least three factors which this approach does not take into account. Firstly there is the widespread reaction to a series of tweets Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn made between 2019 and 2021. Many people feel his comments about residential schools are demeaning to First Nations and at this point 57 elected and former politicians, as well as Frst Nation leaders, have signed a joint letter calling for his resignation. So has every other candidate in North Island Powell River. There is also a little group of 9 politicians, primarily based in Campbell River, who have come out in support of Gunn. However with this kind of controversy going on, it is difficult to believe that 48% of the electorate would vote for Aaron Gunn if there were an election today. There is also NDP candidate Tanille Johnson's popularity with some of the electorate, and the fact Bob Chamberlain, former Vice President of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs, endorses her. Lastly, Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash, her Campaign Manager and Deputy Campaign Manager are all government staffers with an intimate understanding of how elections are run. When I interviewed Deputy Campaign Manager Holly Johnson last week, they had recruited 150 volunteers. Those are three good reasons to ignore 338Canada's projections for North Island Powell River. The only poll that could tell us what is going on in North Island Powell River must be taken here.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - All of the recent polls report the Liberals ahead in this election. If the election were held today, 338Canada and CBC's Poll tracker are projecting a landslide victory, with between 193 and 202 seats going to Mark Carney's Liberal Party. It's a bit more difficult when it comes to calculating the outcome in individual ridings. According to 338Canada's projections, North Island-Powell River is the bluest of the four northern Vancouver Island ridings. Aaron Gunn is expected to receive about 47% of the popular vote, but projections rely on algorithms and past voting history, and there are some things that can sneak under the radar.  For example, does 338Canada know about NDP candidate Tanille Johnson's following, as the only non-Conservative councillor in the city of Campbell River? Or that Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash, her Campaign Manager and Deputy Campaign manager are all government staffers who have amassed an army of 150 volunteers to knock on doors, man the phones and put up lawn signs? Or of the small successes of a Green Party movie and conversation night?  The following stories came out of interviews with an NDP Campaign manager, a Liberal Deputy Campaign manager and two of the leading Green Party campaigns workers. The Conservatives were to have replied by an email which, should it arrive later, will be published separately. 

Derek Fildebrandt discusses the polls with 338Canada.com founder and creator, Philippe J. Fournier.

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We've waited a long time for this. On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election — thrusting the parties into what is certain to be a dynamic, historic campaign. For starters, let's get with you up to speed with a starter guide to campaign 2025, courtesy of CBC's chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton.Then, Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer joins the show to discuss his party's response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats and his party's promise to cut the industrial carbon tax.Next, host Catherine Cullen stops by the NDP campaign headquarters in Ottawa to check in with Anne McGrath — senior adviser to leader Jagmeet Singh — about the party's outlook heading into the campaign.Plus, the director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory explains what worries him about the information voters are getting online this election — and how you can make sure you don't get duped.Finally, as political polls go into overdrive, two analysts dissect how seat projections and party popularity numbers actually work.This episode features the voices of:Rosemary Barton, CBC's chief political correspondentAndrew Scheer, Conservative House leaderAnne McGrath, senior advisor to NDP Leader Jagmeet SinghAengus Bridgman, director of the Media Ecosystem ObservatoryPhilippe Fournier, editor-in-chief of 338CanadaÉric Grenier, author and publisher of thewrit.ca

Happy Tuesday. It's time for another episode of On The Line. And this is another two-guest episode, too. There's that much to talk about!Our first guest, making a return appearance on On The Line, is P.J. Fournier, creator of 338Canada.com and 338Canada.ca. (The man has so much to offer he needs two websites!) Since we last spoke in February, Canada's federal polling environment has radically changed. He walks us through the numbers, and what this means for the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP. With an election call expected imminently, we wanted to put down a marker. Let's see what happens next.This episode of On The Line is brought to you by the Forest Products Association of Canada. Canadian forestry supports 200,000 workers, generates $87 billion in annual revenue, and provides the products we need to build homes and drive economic growth. While trade barriers from the United States threaten jobs and investment, Canada's own approval processes and regulations are blocking critical projects that increase our self reliance. The Canadian government has a clear opportunity to stand up for Canadian forestry at a time of growing global uncertainty. We need real action that puts Canadians first — supporting employees and their families, securing stability for our businesses, and protecting the long-term potential of our sector and its people. To learn more, visit ForestryForTheFuture.ca.Up next, long-time journalist and author Stephen Maher joins us. Stephen wrote the book — literally — on Justin Trudeau, and joins Matt to talk about the Trudeau legacy. The world went weird on Trudeau's watch, and Canada ... didn't respond? Why not? What were the problems inside that government? Was it organizational? Personal? Political? How did the man who swept into office in 2015 as a leading example of global progressivism leave as a deeply unpopular, polarizing figure that even his own party seemed happy to see the back of?This episode is also brought to you by the Métis Nation of Ontario. For centuries, as winter faded, Métis families would move through the sugar bush, tapping towering maples. They'd collect the sap and boil it into syrup, trading it at British and French trading posts, where sugar was as prized as pelts. The syrup sweetened tea in Montréal, flavoured bread in York, and fuelled voyageurs paddling west to the prairies. Through resilience and skill, the Métis built an entire industry that sustained the fur trade, connected communities, and created a legacy that endures to this day. To learn more, go to OntarioMetisFacts.com.A lot of what Maher has to say about Trudeau to Matt is critical, but the two men also try and sketch out what they think a best-case scenario for Trudeau's legacy might look like. All politicians get more popular as time goes on and anger and memories fade. In 50 years, when some university professor sits down to write a book about long-ago prime minister Justin Trudeau, what will the first chapter be?As always, like and subscribe. And we'll see you next week for the next installment of On The Line.On The Line will be distributed through the same channels as The Line Podcast, which will continue to release episodes on Friday. To never miss an episode of either of our offerings, you should obviously sign up here at ReadtheLine.ca, but you can also follow us at the most popular podcast viewing/listening destinations.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - As Canada prepares for an election, which may be called sometime before parliament is recalled on March 24, polls show the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie. But 6 out of 8 recent polls also show the Liberals rising quickly and now narrowly ahead. On Sunday 338Canada projected the odds of a Conservative forming a majority government has fallen from 99% on January 19 to a mere 13%. About 8 AM Tuesday - an hour after Cortes Currents sent in its daily radio broadcast! - 338Canada revised its projections to suggest Mark Carney's Liberals may be on it's way to forming a majority government. That may have been because the first of this week's polls. The Angus Reid Institute suggests the Liberals may be on their way to a majority. Mark Carney is believed to be better equipped to: handle the trade war with the United States (55%-30%), develop or expand new trade relationships outside the US (54%-28%) handle Trump's threats of annexing Canada (53%-31%) protect Canada's economy (53%-33%) deal with the provinces (47%-31%) protect health care (44%-26%) and reduce the cost of living (41%-35%) That said, Angus Reid only found the Liberals leading by 5% in the popular vote. Leger gave them a 3% lead and also identified a ‘wild card.' 28% of their respondents said they did not know enough about Carney to have an opinion, compared to just 12% who said that about Poilievre. 338Canada's latest projection, from this morning, suggests the Liberals could be elected in 177 seats, which is 5 more than what is needed for a majority. The Liberals are now projected as leading in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario the Yukon and Northwest Territories. They are tied with the Conservatives in Manitoba. The Conservative Party currently only leads in BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Angus Reid and Leger suggest the NDP's support is now down to a single digit (9%). In British Columbia, where 338Canada projected the Conservatives may be elected in many as 22 seats, a dozen former NDP seats may be going Conservative or LIberal. Six of them are on Vancouver Island, where there is not a single NDP candidate leading in the race. North Island Powell River (NIPR) has been an NDP riding since Rachel Blaney was elected in 2015, but Blaney stepped down and the new NDP candidate, Tanille Johnson, is 25 points behind Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn. The big story in this riding may be the Liberal's jump from 12% to 20% since Jennifer Lash announced her candidacy last week. While the NDP are currently second in this riding, they just lost 6 points and the Liberals picked up 5. 338Canada suggests the progressive vote in North Island Powell River is split between three parties: with the NDP falling to 23%, the Liberals rising to 20% and the Greens unchanged at 6%. Sometime in the next two weeks, Prime Minister Carney will dissolve parliament and an election will be declared. Once the writ is dropped, there will be a campaign of at least 37 days and no more than 51 days.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - After trailing far behind in the polls for the better part of two years, the Liberal party's propects appear to be on the rise nationally, and the gap between the Conservatives and NDP is narrowing in our riding. Canada's two leading political forecasting websites, 338Canada and CBC's poll tracker, still show the Conservatives in the front, but no longer predict a Conservative majority. Last week Ipsos and EKOS both released polls showing the Liberal party edging into the lead. However Innovative Reseach, Abacus Data, Leger, and Nanos all reported the Conservatives were still ahead. On Thursday, CBC's Poll Tracker reported the weighed average of all these polls showing the Conservatives still had 40% of the popular vote, the Liberals trailing with 31%, NDP with 14% and Greens had only 4%. 338Canada's projection, released Sunday, March 2, showed the gap narrowing. The Conservatives were still leading, but with 39% of the popular vote to the Liberals 33%. The NDP and Greens remained unchanged. A special feature of 338Canada's projections is they give breakdowns for every riding. North Island-Powell River is still regarded as a safe Conservative seat, but the gap between the two leading parties shrank 5% during the past week. The Conservatives now have 47%, NDP 29% and Greens 6%. If there was a Liberal candidate, 15% of the population may have chosen her or him. As there is no Liberal candidate, a significant number of those people would probably choose NDP. If they all did, there would only be a 3% gap between the Conservatives and NDP. Given the speed in which the political situation is changing, it is important to realize that none of this data was collected after Tuesday, February 25. On a National level, the gap between the two leading parties has most likely narrowed. Similarly, the NDP are probably doing better than what the projection shows for North Island-Powell River.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Island - NDP candidate Tanille Johnson recently visited Cortes Island, where 20 people were waiting to see her in the Pioneer Room at Mansons Hall. The event was sponsored by Cortes Island's Climate Action Network, which also provided lunch.  Johnson said she prefers small meetings like this,  “I've been spending most of my time going to people's houses, meeting with their friends,  I like to think that I'm a very truthful, honest person and I actually care about what happens in this riding. It means a lot to me, like my family, generations and generations, lived here.” Recent polls suggest the Conservative Party may have lost its early lead in this pre-election period. Both EKOS (February 26) and Ipsos (February 25) released polls that show the Liberals edging forward in what has once again become a two party race. The NDP are a distant third and fading.  That's on the national level, it has always been a very different race in North Island-Powell River. If you include the results from the former Vancouver Island North riding, the choice has been NDP or Conservative for decades. Rachel Blaney has been our MP since 2015, but her predecessor John Duncan was a Conservative and the Conservatives have been a close second in every recent federal election.  Now Blaney is stepping down. 338Canada's most recent projections still depict Johnson as the underdog in our riding, but those projections will only be released on Sundays until the election is declared. A great deal has changed since last Sunday. More will change in the weeks to come.  Tanille Johnson began,  “ I was born and raised in Campbell River,  that's my home territory and my home community in more ways than one.  I am a member of the We Wai Kai First Nation, one of the three Liǧʷiłdax̌ʷ Nations that make up the greater Campbell River area and a little bit up into Sayward for our traditional territory.  I didn't grow up on reserve. I spent a ton of time on reserve, but my house was down in Willow Point in Campbell River, which started me off in an interesting place in my life.”  “I purposely moved back from Victoria eight years ago because I wanted to be home. I wanted to be home for me and for my kids.  I did not want to raise a family outside of my traditional territory. I'm extremely connected and loyal to this area. I'm not going anywhere.  I recognize that Ottawa is very far away and  I will be in Ottawa when I have to be in Ottawa but I will have big accountability for showing up in the riding and having my ear to the ground and showing up when you need me and being where I need to be.”  “I first got into politics in post secondary education.  I dove in with both feet.  I was on the Native Student Union Council, I was on the UVic Student Society Board of Directors, I was on the UVic Senate. I sat at the Equity Advisory Council for the School of Social Work, federally with the Canadian Federation of Students on their Federal Executive Board as well as their Provincial Executive Board.”

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - If there were an election today, the polls show that Pierre Poilievre's Conservative party would probably form the next government. This isn't what is necessarily going to happen. I like to think of polls as ‘point in time' snapshots which may be 100% accurate right now, but the situation can be very different tomorrow.  One of the trends I have noticed on 338Canada, which gleans data from many polls, is that support for the Liberals has been tacking upwards since Trudeau resigned (6 points), while support for the Conservatives and NDP has gone down (4 points each). If the Liberals pick a popular leader, we can expect their popularity to rise even higher in the polls - all of which is just to say that the as yet undeclared election is too far away to be certain.   Anyway Max Thaysen, one of our thought leaders here on Cortes, has been watching what Donald Trump, a Conservative leader in the United States, is doing and getting anxious about what this latest rendition of the Conservative Party might be like if it comes to power.    Max Thaysen: “Watching Donald Trump do his Donald Trump thing in America is pretty scary. There's a breakdown of the rule of law happening, but also just some really nasty meanness. It's such a tragedy that America was taken over by these goons, In part because 40% of people didn't vote. It's easy and tempting to be cynical.” “Yes, the result of checking out the whole political game is that sometimes the bad guys win, and sometimes when the bad guys win, they win for a long time. We actually go very far backwards.”  “Defunding science and making life dangerous for activists, or including journalists such as yourself in the pool of people considered to be activists by the government. Those are all really dangerous things that are hard to recover from.”   Cortes Currents: This is all about Donald Trump, a Republican leader who many Republicans are now finding alarming.  What do you see in our Conservative Party that's alarming?  Max Thaysen: “Like most Canadians, I read mostly American news.” (Laughter)   “Yeah, you're supposed to be quiet while I'm talking! I don't think anybody knows that much about Pierre Poilievre's policies because he hasn't said very much about Pierre Poilievre's policies. But that's true of Donald Trump as well, which is one of the reasons why it's useful to look at what Donald Trump is doing.” “His policies are being implemented now, whereas before we had some hints, maybe some loud hints from the kinds of people he was planning to work with and what they were saying and stuff like that.  Now the rubber is hitting the road.” “I think that's true of Pierre Poilievre too. He just seems to say one liners over and over again and indicate his cruelty, but not really delivering that much. I think we can just assume the worst because he's demonstrated a similar style and approach and intention in many issues similar to Donald Trump. That's what I'm most worried about. What he has said, the nastiness towards journalists who are trying to ask honest questions, tells me that he's the enemy of most of us in his intentions and whatever policy comes from that. It's unlikely to be fair, or kind, or honest - based on what I've seen so far.  Those are very dangerous anti-values that he's got.”  

Thanks for checking out our first regular episode of On The Line, The Line's latest podcast offering. Each week, On The Line will bring you an extended conversation with Matt Gurney or Jen Gerson and a guest — or guests! — that can speak with authority on whatever is in the news. And this week, well. Like, look around. OMG.The week's episode of On The Line is brought to you by the Motion Picture Association of Canada. For decades, Ottawa controlled what is “Canadian” and what isn't when it comes to series and movies available to Canadians. The rules are out of date and costing Canadians opportunities. It's time for Ottawa to focus on helping Canadian film and TV workers, and encourage efforts to showcase Canada. To learn more visit https://www.mpa-canada.org/All kidding aside, and we suspect our viewers and listeners will understand, we had to change our plans like nine times before recording this, trying to keep up with developments. But we stuck the landing! Our first guest is Stephen Gordon, a professor of economics at Laval University. He joins this week's host Matt Gurney to talk about what Trump's tariff war would mean for Canada. How it would hurt. How Canada would adapt. How you can adapt. And also what could happen if this resumes and escalates. It's not great news. But it might not be as bad as you fear.For clarity: when we recorded this, the tariffs were still happening, but we knew there was a chance they'd be lifted. There was a lot going on! We treated it as something that would happen, but Stephen also told us why even the U.S. would be keen to avoid them …This week's episode is also brought to you by the Métis Nation of Ontario. The Métis in what is now Ontario were not just traders or voyageurs — they were strategists and warriors ready to defend their lands and water from invaders. Their contributions in the War of 1812 shaped the borders of a future Canada. To learn more, go to https://www.ontariometisfacts.com/Our next guest is P.J. Fournier, creator of 338Canada. (Check out his main page at 338Canada.com, and also his newsletter at 338Canada.ca.) P.J. gives us an update on federal polling, and addresses why some of it seems so wonky. He also gives us an update on two provinces — Ontario already has an election underway, and next door in Quebec, an unpopular premier is no doubt watching to see if his pal Doug pays a price for calling an early vote ... As always, like and subscribe and check out our main page at ReadtheLine.ca. And we'll see you next week for the next installment of On The Line.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - A day before the election 338Canada is predicting a slight NDP majority. 338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding's history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 elections. They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error 6% and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races. This prediction for the election was made Oct 16: 49 seats for the NDP and 42 for the Conservatives. As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), the race could still be very close. The NDP need 47 seats to form a majority government. They are especially vulnerable in the 5 ridings where their lead is within the margin of error. This means their number of seats could (but probably won't) sink to 44. The Conservative lead is especially vulnerable in 10 ridings, which means their total number of seats could be as low as 32. Our North Island riding is one of the ones where the Conservatives have a slight lead, but the race is so close 338Canada is calling it a ‘toss up.' The popular vote for: Andy Kindy was projected at 44%, Michele Babchuk at 43% and Nic Dedeluk 13%. The margin of error for both Kindy and Babchuk is 7%, which means either of them could win. The Green Party is expected to take 2 ridings (Saanich North and the Islands and Furstenau's own Victoria Beacon Hill riding) could take 3 and it is possible they may take 4. They are only 2% behind the Conservatives in West Vancouver Sea to Sky, which means that race is still a ‘toss up' and they are 6% behind the NDP in Furstenau's old Cowichan Valley riding. Overall, 338Canada is stating the Conservatives could still win, but gives them only a 20% chance. They gave the NDP a 69% chance of victory and a 5% chance this will only be a minority government. Of course if a large number of NDP supporters stay home, as happened when Christy Clark was elected in 2011, the Conservatives could win. The recent Angus Reid poll identified two segments of the population who are especially pro-NDP: women and males under the age of 34. Given the closeness of the vote, their votes (or decision to not vote) may decide the election. The Green Party's hopes of increasing their number of seats beyond 2 most likely depend on the same segments of the population.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - 338Canada's latest projection for North Island Riding, taken on September 30, shows the Conservative party of BC having just taken the lead in the popular vote. Nineteen days from the election, they may currently be supported by 47% of the electorate as opposed to 42% for the NDP. The media website uses data from recent polls and the riding's history. They have covered 13 general elections and, so far, 338Canada claims to have successfully identified the winner in 1,657 electoral districts 89.9% of the time. That said, this is essentially a ‘point in time' analysis and yesterday showed these two parties virtually tied.  “We know this is going to be a really close election, so we're rolling up our sleeves and we're not taking anything for granted,” said Michele Babchuk, the NDP candidate and current MLA for our riding. “I'm just actually in the car pulled over on the side of the road right now. It just came out of a meeting with a local group here. We will be in Campbell River today at the campaign office. As soon as I get back, I will be knocking on doors and out with my team. Another group will be on the phones, putting in the hard work, putting up signs, doing some fundraising. I've been all over the riding all summer, but this week focused in Campbell River.” “We've heard Mr Rustad talk about not believing in climate science, how the government shouldn't be involved in helping people with housing. We've heard a few conspiracy theories come out, so I am just concerned of what this looks like for the North Island.” Cortes Currents sent Babchuk, the Conservative candidate Anna Kidney and Green candidate Nic Dedeluk a series of questions about extreme weather events, emissions, the housing crisis, food prices, employment and education in our area. Dedeluk agreed to an interview which will take place later this week. Kidney's campaign manager, Richard Martin, emailed “More than ever, British Columbians are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living as they see jobs, investment and economic opportunity leave our province.  Anna owes it to the people of North Island to speak with them about their concerns on the direction of our province and how we can make it better. In the lead up to October 19, her focus is on engaging with voters directly at the doors.” So far, Babchuk has been the only one to respond in detail.

BC's Conservative party is on the verge of what would be a stunning win in this fall's provincial election. And one party's stunning gains, it turns out, is another party's utter destruction. When the BC Liberal party rebranded as BC United last year, it was wirth the hope of injecting new life into the party. Instead, the party is ... gone. It's been effectively disbanded by leader Kevin Falcon, who threw his support to the Conservatives.How did a major party with decades of history blow up in a little over a year? What does it mean for an already close election? And what does the rapid shift in BC polling tell us about the mood across the country, particularly in two other provinces who will also be voting this fall?GUEST: Philippe J. Fournier, Editor In Chief and creator of 338Canada.com We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or by calling 416-935-5935 and leaving us a voicemailOr @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter

 June 7, 2024 - Voters head to the polls in the Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection on June 24. 338Canada poll aggregator Philippe Fournier breaks down the numbers, then the Power Panel weighs in on why the Liberals are fighting hard to hold on to this riding. Plus, Donald Trump is bragging about his fundraising after his conviction. We have reaction from David Frum, former speechwriter for George W. Bush.

Is the "Alberta Advantage" disappearing? For decades, the province has boasted higher wages, lower unemployment, and a lower cost of living than the rest of Canada. But the numbers show a troubling trend. We investigate what's behind it, and what the future could look like, in this episode of Real Talk.  3:03 | Why is Alberta's minimum wage the lowest in the country? Why aren't private sector workers sharing in their employers' record profits? Is Alberta inherently anti-union? Economist Dr. Jim Stanford takes us into his report, "Alberta's Disappearing Advantage".  READ THE REPORT: https://afl.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Alberta-Disappearing-Advantage-Jim-Stanford.pdf 42:15 | It's the perfect time of year to spot wildlife in Jasper! We feature some amazing options to tour, hike, or paddle your way to the perfect photograph in #MyJasper Memories presented by our friends at Tourism Jasper.  BOOK YOUR JASPER GETAWAY: https://www.jasper.travel/ 44:48 | Can Justin Trudeau possibly regain ground he's lost to Pierre Poilievre? What do the Alberta NDP's new membership numbers mean for its leadership race? Could Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe lose his job? What the heck is going on in B.C. politics? And, is Quebec really trending toward another referendum? 338Canada's Philippe Fournier joins us from Montreal.  CHECK OUT PHILIPPE'S SUBSTACK: https://www.338canada.ca/ 1:23:05 | We're celebrating 10,000 followers on our RealTalkRJ TikTok! Ryan and Johnny revisit our recent post about a political mixer aimed at "youth" aged 14-25.  SGT. KERRY SHIMA ON REAL TALK: https://rtrj.info/070422Shima GOLFERS: The Real Talk Golf Classic presented by CWB Wealth is close to selling out! We'd love for you to join us Thursday, June 20 at The Ranch G&CC for Edmonton's Best Golf Tournament in support of the Real Talk Julie Rohr Scholarship.  REGISTER TODAY: https://ryanjespersen.com/real-talk-g... SCHOLARSHIP DETAILS: https://www.ecfoundation.org/funds/th... FOLLOW US ON TIKTOK, TWITTER, & INSTAGRAM: @realtalkrj  REAL TALK MERCH: https://ryanjespersen.com/merch STEP UP YOUR SUPPORT FOR THE SHOW - BECOME A REAL TALK PATRON: https://www.patreon.com/ryanjespersen THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING OUR SPONSORS! https://ryanjespersen.com/sponsors The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates

Roy L Hales/ Cortes Currents - Canada is expected to have another Federal election in October 2025. Green party leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault launched their national campaign almost two weeks ago. Cortes Currents interviewed them in Ottawa (via ZOOM) yesterday morning. They will be coming to the Maritime Heritage Centre in Campbell River on Saturday, March 2.  
“We're less than 18 months away from a general election. It's crucial that voters get a chance to engage and ask questions to Elizabeth and I about where the party's key priorities are. It's crucial  for us to also get a pulse of  what the key issues are for voters from coast to coast,” explained Jonathan Pedneault.   
“We've been traveling extensively since the leadership race ended (on Nov 19, 2022). It's a great opportunity for the party to test a number of messages on housing, on affordability, and on the climate. Last year we saw some of the most dramatic impacts of climate change ever to have been seen in Canada - with the wildfire season, the storms in the Atlantic and with a continuation of an extremely dry summer in British Columbia. I think it's top of mind for a lot of small communities across Canada.”  “The key objectives of the tour are for us to get to know what's on people's minds and to share where we're at as a party. We are really kickstarting our electoral readiness process ahead of what is going to be an extremely important general election.”  
Cortes Currents: The Green party often does surprisingly well in polls taken prior to elections. A Nanos poll taken during the 2015 election showed that when the second choices of respondents were factored in, the Green party could potentially reach 27.7% of the electorate. During the 2019 election, 338Canada's projections showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings throughout most of the campaign. In both cases, the Green party was not able to transform this potential into seats on election day.  
What could make the next election different? 
Elizabeth May: “Voter turnout, and voter turnout means citizens feeling engaged and empowered. That is the strategy, and we will win more seats on Vancouver Island and certainly that will encourage people who are dispirited.” She went on to illustrate her point with statistics from ridings where the Greens have won, adding that if 75% of the electorate turns out this election, they will take North Island-Powell River from the NDP.

For the first time in years, 2023 saw Canadian voters shift their federal vote intention in a meaningful way, giving the Conservative Party a huge lead in the fall, before the Liberals clawed back a few points in December. With a federal election a year or less away, the race in more volatile than it's been in recent memory—so what might make a difference this year?Meanwhile, three provinces will also go to the polls, and we'll learn a lot from the results of those elections as well. From the man who watches every riding, poll and election across the country, we take you through what could be a year of big changes in Canada's political landscape.GUEST: Philippe J. Fournier, Editor In Chief and creator of 338Canada.com We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or by calling 416-935-5935 and leaving us a voicemailOr @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter

This week on Open Sources Guelph, we realize that it's always darkest just before Halloween. At least that's what it seems like when we open social media or a news app on our phone. We've got a full slate of political news for you from the latest in the Middle East and the frontlines in Israel to the battle lines in Queen's Park. And then, we go to Saskatchewan where there was some constitutional experimentation, and speaking of experimenting, might Guelph be flirting with the blue team?! This Thursday, October 25, at 5 pm, Scotty Hertz and Adam A. Donaldson will discuss: War. Week 3. It's been now nearly four weeks since a brutal Hamas attack in Israel, and as the Gaza Strip is being bombarded almost constantly, there's still great concern about the fate of Palestinian civilians when and if an all-out ground invasion begins. Meanwhile, international pressure seems to have forced Hamas' hand, they've released a couple of hostages but it's being seen as little more than a delay tactic. Is there still no end in site for this crisis, and is there any chance for peace? Pump Out the Jama. She's barely been in office for six month, but on Monday Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama was censured by the Ontario legislature and then ejected from the NDP caucus, and it was all because of a statement about the Israel-Hamas War, which the legislature has no influence over. But while that drama was happening, there were more Official Plan changes, a lawsuit against the feds, and did Doug Ford call Mike Schreiner "Mr. Green"? We'll talk about a crazy week at Queen's Park. The More You Moe. Last Friday, the Saskatchewan legislature passed Bill 137 using the notwithstanding clause of the Constitution. What law could possibly make Premier Scott Moe call a special session to use the proverbial "nuclear option"? Pronouns. The so-called "parental rights" bill has been called transphobic and homophobic, and the passage of Bill 137 came just one day before another series of nation-wide 1 Million March 4 Children protests. So now what? Royal Blue? An article in Guelph Today quoted a poll from 338Canada that said there's a 52 per cent chance that the Conservatives could win the federal riding of Guelph if the next election were held today. Say what? Guelph hasn't sent a Conservative to Parliament Hill for over 30 years, the legendary Bill Winegard left office in 1993 and since then it's been a series of Liberal MPs, but with the waning popularity of Justin Trudeau's Liberals is it possible we're looking at a Blue Shift? Open Sources is live on CFRU 93.3 fm and cfru.ca at 5 pm on Thursday.

If Canadians were voting today, polling shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives would form a massive majority government, while Justin Trudeau's Liberals would see their seats cut in half. What's behind such a surge for the CPC? Is the solution to the Liberal Party's woes as simple as a leadership change? And how does Jagmeet Singh's NDP factor into all of this?  2:35 | Professional poll analyst Philippe Fournier says the Conservatives would win 205 seats (up from 117) if an election was held right now, while the Liberals would plummet from 158 to just 81. The editor-in-chief at 338Canada explains what's driving momentum in both directions, and what might turn the tide over the next couple of years.  CHECK OUT 338CANADA: https://338canada.com/ 38:35 | We've received more feedback from our October 19 interview with Ghada Sasa than any other segment in recent memory. Ryan reads emails from Real Talkers Crystal, Marco, Cyrus, Cheryl, Mariah, Jason, Rene, and Jared.  EMAIL US: talk@ryanjespersen.com  BECOME A REAL TALK PATRON: https://www.patreon.com/ryanjespersen GET TICKETS TO BARNEY BENTALL ON OCTOBER 28 @ FESTIVAL PLACE:  FAIRMONT JPL FIRST RESPONDERS APPRECIATION RATE: https://www.jasper-park-lodge.com/off... WEBSITE: https://ryanjespersen.com/ TIKTOK: https://www.tiktok.com/@realtalkrj TWITTER: https://twitter.com/RealTalkRJ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/RealTalkRJ/ THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING OUR SPONSORS! https://ryanjespersen.com/sponsors The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates.

Éric Grenier, political analyst and author of The Writ newsletter, and Philippe J. Fournier, the mind behind 338Canada, provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada.After collaborating together from time to time on The Writ Podcast, Éric and Philippe have decided to launch a new podcast to share their passion for political history and data-driven analysis with an audience of fellow election junkies.In The Numbers podcast, we'll dive deep into the world of political polling to try to make some sense of the signal that is in all that noise, identify the emerging trends and put all those numbers into context. We'll also analyse political and electoral strategy as it unfolds, as well as look back at the history of election campaigns that have changed the course of Canadian history — for better or worse!We'll also be answering questions from our audience, and hopefully have a little fun, too!Subscribe to our Patreon at thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's the height of summer and that isn't always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!):* What's the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?* Will there be a federal election in 2023?* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?* What were the worst calls Philippe and I ever made?As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ's subscribers-only chat here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Join Mark Garcia, CTF/FCE Advocacy and Government Relations Coordinator, as he provides an overview of the most recent parliamentary session and legislation that the CTF/FCE is monitoring, including: / Joignez-vous à Mark Garcia, coordonnateur de l'Action politique et des Relations avec les gouvernements de la CTF/FCE, qui fait un survol de la dernière session parlementaire et des projets de loi que suit la CTF/FCE :Bill C-13, An Act to amend the Official Languages Act, / Projet de loi C-13, Loi modifiant la Loi sur les langues officiellesBill S-251, An Act to repeal section 43 of the Criminal Code, / Projet de loi S-251, Loi abrogeant l'article 43 du Code criminelBill C-27: An Act to enact the Consumer Privacy Protection Act, and / Projet de loi C-27, Loi édictant la Loi sur la protection de la vie privée des consommateurs Analysis of the recent by-election results / Analyse des résultats des récentes élections partielles.Additional Information / Renseignements supplémentairesCheck out 338Canada (https://338canada.com/) to learn more about seat projections for next federal government.Consultez Qc125 Canada (https://qc125.com/canada/) pour connaître les projections relatives aux sièges du prochain gouvernement fédéral.Want to receive the Parliamentary Update in your inbox? Fill out the subscription form to be added to the mailing list. / Vous voulez recevoir la Mise à jour parlementaire? Remplissez le formulaire d'abonnement pour ajouter votre adresse courriel à notre liste d'envoi : https://forms.office.com/r/2ZhjGG4HYk(Balado en anglais accompagné de liens vers des ressources en anglais et en français)The Source podcast is produced by the CTF/FCE in Ottawa, on the traditional unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabe People. / La balado Source est produite à Ottawa, sur le territoire traditionnel non cédé du peuple algonquin anichinabé, par la CTF/FCE. Follow us on social media / Suivez-nous dans les médias sociaux : Twitter @CTFFCE, Facebook @CTF.FCE, Instagram @ctffce.Views expressed do not necessarily represent the policies nor the views of the CTF/FCE. / Les points de vue exprimés dans cet épisode ne représentent pas forcément les principes directeurs ou les points de vue de la CTF/FCE.

With Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day now upon us, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a little game — a draft of Quebec's best (and most notorious?) premiers!Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him?After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We're down to the final days of Alberta's election campaign and it could be close. Will Danielle Smith's United Conservatives hold on for re-election, or will Rachel Notley's New Democrats mount a comeback?First, I'm joined by The Globe and Mail's Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me.Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for some live analysis of the results as the votes are counted.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

There will be four federal byelections on June 19 in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, all four of them solid seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount.So, what should we expect in these byelections? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada is back to discuss these four races, as well as to set some over/under lines to watch on byelection night!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With just days to go before the starting pistol goes off on Alberta's campaign, I'm joined this week by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to break down where things stand in this hotly-contested election.We also chat about some other recent news, including François Legault's decision to go back on his promise of a third link between Quebec City and Lévis for motorists, the results of the New Brunswick byelections, the re-branding of the B.C. Liberals and is it majority or bust for Pierre Poilievre?As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Has the Chinese election interference moved the dial in the polls? And what are each party's incentives (or disincentives) in forcing an election this spring?What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island's campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week?Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L'actualité and POLITICO Canada) is back on the podcast this week to chat with me about all this and everything in between.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Since Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the Conservative Party last September, his appearances in English-language media have been relatively infrequent and very targeted. But in Quebec, Poilievre has been much more present as he tries to get better known, and better liked, in the province.So what are the challenges Poilievre and the Conservatives face in Quebec — and what are their realistic prospects?To discuss Pierre Poilievre's attempt at a grande séduction of Quebec, I'm joined this week by Marie Vastel of Le Devoir, and our friend Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

According to the latest polling data from 338Canada.com and Nanos, if an election were held today, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would win and become Canada's next prime minister. And True North has learned that Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland will be attending the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos later this month. Plus, in response to a recent announcement that Ottawa finalized a $19 billion deal to buy 88 F-35 fighter jets, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation tells True North that the price tag is double the original amount proposed. Tune into The Daily Brief with Anthony Furey and Rachel Emmanuel! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

0:20 | You don't have to be a football fan, or even a sports fan, to be following the Damar Hamlin story. We open the show with the latest update on the NFL star's condition, and a few thoughts on how COVID misinformation has entered the chat.  12:01 | Philippe Fournier went 82 for 87 in predicting the outcome of Alberta's provincial election in 2019. The founder of 338Canada tells us how he sees the 2023 Alberta election playing out, and what other political stories he's keeping an eye on across the country.  CHECK OUT 338CANADA: https://338canada.com/ 30:21 | It's a perfect time of year to book your Jasper getaway! This week's edition of #MyJasper Memories presented by Tourism Jasper highlights some of the great options in store during the first weekend of Jasper in January.  MAKE YOUR PLANS TODAY: https://www.jasper.travel/january/ 34:15 | Taylor Swift unleashed controversy this fall with her "Anti-Hero" video that critics swiftly labelled as fatphobic. Athabasca University professors Kristin Rodier and Heather McLean explain how the oppression of fat people continues to be a problem, and where they'd like to see the conversation go.  READ THEIR ARTICLE: https://theconversation.com/what-taylor-swifts-anti-hero-controversy-can-tell-us-about-fatphobia-in-feminist-politics-195287 LEARN MORE ABOUT ATHABASCA UNIVERSITY: https://www.athabascau.ca/ HEADS UP, HOCKEY PLAYERS! The puck drops February 4 at the Real Talk Pond Hockey Classic. We'd love to see you there playing, volunteering, or sponsoring our annual fundraiser for KidSport and Uncles & Aunts at Large. SIGN UP TODAY: https://ryanjespersen.com/pond-hockey WEBSITE: https://ryanjespersen.com/ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/RealTalkRJ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/RealTalkRJ/ TIKTOK: https://www.tiktok.com/@realtalkrj PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/ryanjespersen THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING OUR SPONSORS! https://ryanjespersen.com/sponsors The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates.

It's that time of year again!Last year, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com joined me for a little friendly competition to see who could best predict what would happen in politics in 2022.Well, the results are in — and the title is up for grabs again in 2023.So, join us for this game of over/under as we guess what will happen in federal politics next year as well as in the provincial elections scheduled in Alberta, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.This will be the last episode of The Writ Podcast for 2022. See you next year! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

That's a wrap on the fall session of Parliament! Join Mark Garcia, CTF/FCE Advocacy and Government Relations Coordinator, as he gives us a look at what has happened on the Hill this fall and upcoming considerations for 2023, including: / La session parlementaire de l'automne est maintenant close! Joignez-vous à Mark Garcia, coordonnateur de l'Action politique et des Relations avec les gouvernements de la CTF/FCE, qui récapitule ce qui s'est passé sur la Colline cet automne et signale les questions à venir en 2023 :Inflation and carbon tax increase in the new year / L'inflation et l'augmentation de la taxe sur le carbone dans la nouvelle annéeConstitutional relationships between the federal and provincial governments / Les relations constitutionnelles entre les gouvernements fédéral et provinciauxThe triple threat to healthcare and other issues of national concern / La triple menace qui pèse sur les soins de santé et les autres préoccupations sur la scène nationaleLegislation to support the labour movement / Les lois à l'appui du mouvement syndicalMississauga – Lakeshore by-election, and / L'élection partielle dans Mississauga–LakeshoreCTF/FCE advocacy efforts / L'action politique de la CTF/FCEAdditional Information / Renseignements supplémentairesCheck out Politico's Ottawa Playbook (https://politi.co/3W0aTCj) and 338Canada (https://338canada.com/) / Qc125 Canada (https://qc125.com/canada/) Read Dr. Danielle Martin's book “Better Now: Six Big Ideas to Improve Health Care for All Canadians”: http://6bigideas.ca/ (en anglais seulement)View the Nanos Poll, released on December 6, 2022 / Résultats du sondage Nanos parus le 6 décembre 2022 : https://bit.ly/3iLUfIt (en anglais seulement) Email communication@ctf-fce.ca to subscribe to our Parliamentary Update / Envoyez un courriel à communication@ctf-fce.ca pour vous abonner à notre Mise à jour parlementaire! (Balado en anglais accompagné de liens vers des ressources en anglais et en français)This episode was recorded on December 13, 2022. / Cet épisode a été enregistré le 13 décembre 2022.The Source podcast is produced by the CTF/FCE in Ottawa, on the traditional unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabe People. / La balado Source est produite à Ottawa, sur le territoire traditionnel non cédé du peuple algonquin anichinabé, par la CTF/FCE. Follow us on social media / Suivez-nous dans les médias sociaux : Twitter @CTFFCE, Facebook @CTF.FCE, Instagram @ctffce.Views expressed do not necessarily represent the policies nor the views of the CTF/FCE. / Les points de vue exprimés dans cet épisode ne représentent pas forcément les principes directeurs ou les points de vue de la CTF/FCE.

François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec started the 2022 Quebec election campaign with a big lead in the polls.And that's where they are ending it — despite themselves.But while another CAQ majority looks very likely, the campaign hasn't answered perhaps the biggest question we had when it began — are Quebec's politics in the midst of a re-alignment as the Conservatives and Québec Solidaire rise and the Liberals and the Parti Québécois fade away?To discuss what each of the parties can expect on Monday night, I'm joined again by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com on The Writ Podcast.On Monday night, you can catch me on CBC Radio One in Quebec and online. I'll be analyzing the results as they come in. The show starts at 7:30 PM ET and I hope you'll tune in!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This Matters would like to share another Toronto Star podcast episode, welcoming back 'It's Political with Althia Raj.' Listen here then subscribe or follow in your podcast feeds.  This week on "It's Political," Althia focuses on Pierre Poilievre's leadership. First, she'll take a look back at the divisive leadership race and Poilievre's big win. Then she sits down with Yan Plante, the former chief of staff to transport minister Denis Lebel in Stephen Harper's government, and Melanie Paradis, a long-time advisor and deputy campaign manager to Erin O'Toole during his successful leadership bid, to discuss Poilievre's first few days as Official Opposition leader, his messaging and voter coalition and what to watch for as he puts his mark on the party. In this episode: Toronto Star reporter Stephanie Levitz, Hamish Marshall from Pierre Poilievre's leadership campaign, former Conservative staffer Rudy Husny and Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com, as well as TACT vice-president Yan Plante and Texture Communications' president Melanie Paradis, both former senior Conservative advisors. Hosted by Althia Raj. Thanks this week to Toronto Star reporter Kieran Leavitt, as well as CBC, CPAC, CTV, and Pierre Poilievre's Facebook page. “It's Political” is produced by Althia Raj and Michal Stein. Sean Pattendon mixed the program. Theme music is by Isaac Joel.

This week on "It's Political," we focus on Pierre Poilievre's leadership. First, we'll take a look back at the divisive leadership race and Poilievre's big win. Then we'll sit down with Yan Plante, the former chief of staff to transport minister Denis Lebel in Stephen Harper's government, and Melanie Paradis, a long-time advisor and deputy campaign manager to Erin O'Toole during his successful leadership bid, to discuss Poilievre's first few days as Official Opposition leader, his messaging and voter coalition and what to watch for as he puts his mark on the party. In this episode: Toronto Star reporter Stephanie Levitz, Hamish Marshall from Pierre Poilievre's leadership campaign, former Conservative staffer Rudy Husny and Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com, as well as TACT vice-president Yan Plante and Texture Communications' president Melanie Paradis, both former senior Conservative advisors. Hosted by Althia Raj. Thanks this week to Toronto Star reporter Kieran Leavitt, as well as CBC, CPAC, CTV, and Pierre Poilievre's Facebook page. “It's Political” is produced by Althia Raj and Michal Stein. Sean Pattendon mixed the program. Our theme music is by Isaac Joel.

0:34 | Canadians with variable rate mortgages, lines of credit, and other obligations will be paying more after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. Ryan opens the show with some general observations just moments after the rate hike was announced. 9:17 | Philippe Fournier is all about politics and polling. The 338Canada founder gives us a sense of the biggest issues at play in the Quebec's election, and who might walk away the winner. Plus, we look at a Nanos poll suggesting 70% of Canadians are turned off by "Freedom convoy" support, and hash out who might be most affected by that reality (hint: it's Pierre Poilievre).  CHECK OUT 338CANADA: https://338canada.com/ 45:44 | It's quite unusual to see opposition to Danielle Smith's proposed "Alberta Sovereignty Act" from Conservatives and the NDP alike. We review Alberta Premier Jason Kenney's scathing assessment of the proposed legislation, and assess what it might mean for some of the "middle ground" candidates in the UCP leadership race.  51:08 | It's a bit of a different edition of #MyJasper Memories this week on Real Talk, as the Chetamon wildfire continues to burn, and officials in Jasper are asking would-be visitors to reconsider their travel plans. Ryan shows highlights of his recent visit to the Jasper Park Lodge golf course, just hours before the fire started to spread.  GET UPDATES ON THE CHETAMON MOUNTAIN WILDFIRE: https://www.jasper.travel/wildfire/ WEBSITE: https://ryanjespersen.com/ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/RealTalkRJ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/RealTalkRJ/ TIKTOK: https://www.tiktok.com/@realtalkrj The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates.

On Sunday, François Legault officially kicked off his re-election campaign in Quebec. Voters will be going to the polls on October 3 in an election that is Legault's to lose.But despite his party's big lead in the polls, there's still a lot at stake in this election campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec needs to avoid any mistakes that could get in the way of a victory while the old governing parties, the Liberals and Parti Québécois, need to avoid catastrophe.Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives, meanwhile, are looking to make a lasting impression.Joining me this week, and for every week for the rest of the campaign, is Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. Starting next week, Philippe will join me for subscriber-only bonus episodes, but he's here this week to break down the first days of this campaign.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Herle Burly was created by Air Quotes Media with support from our presenting sponsor TELUS, as well as CN Rail and Google Canada.Herle Burly-ites, Philippe J. Fournier is here! I'm sure a good lot of you know who Philippe is and have read his work and analysis, but for our listeners who haven't, Philippe is the creator of 338Canada, the statistical model of electoral projection based on historical trends, opinion polls and demographic data. He deconstructs and analyzes Canadian politics with the eyes of a scientist. Not at all shocking because, by day, Philippe teaches astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent! So today – and this is despite my own deep, deeeeep knowledge of astrophysics – we are going to geek out about polling and electoral data. We'll talk about the federal race… What the different voter coalitions are… What it is that makes the Liberal vote so damn efficient. We'll talk about Poilievre and the kind of coalition he's trying to build… Where he needs his votes to come from in order to be PM… And whether his leadership campaign poses a risk to his electoral prospects. And then we'll talk about Singh and the NDP…  What impact this accord with the Liberals is having on their support… And where the problem is translating feel good vibes for Singh, into votes. Finally, we'll chat about the outlook for the upcoming Quebec election.Thank you for joining us on #TheHerleBurly podcast. Please take a moment to give us a rating and review on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts or your favourite podcast app.Watch conversations from The Herle Burly on YouTube. 

In less than two months, Quebec's election campaign will officially be underway. While the polls suggest that François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec is on track for a big majority victory, there are still some big questions that have to be answered when voters cast their ballots on October 3.First among these is whether or not the CAQ can cruise to a win. Does the party have any vulnerabilities that could trip it up between now and election day?Can the Quebec Conservatives finally make a breakthrough after surging in the polls? What's next for Québec Solidaire, and what will the results say about the future of both the Quebec Liberals and the Parti Québécois?The Writ's subscription rates will be increasing next week. Subscribe and lock in your lower rate today!To break down the state of the race, this week on The Writ Podcast I'm joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. You can also check out Philippe's work at Politico and L'actualité.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

7:48 | Quebec and Alberta: it's complicated. Philippe Fournier, the pundit and poll analyst behind 338Canada, shares his insights into "sovereignty" discussions in both Canadian provinces. Philippe speculates on the future of Quebec Premier Francois Legault, Alberta's United Conservative Party (and Rachel Notley's NDP), the Conservative Party of Canada, and PM Justin Trudeau's Liberal government.  CHECK OUT 338CANADA: https://338canada.com/ 38:22 | We continue our discussion on Indigenous and non-Indigenous business partnerships, on the heels of our June 21 interview with Indigenous Tourism Alberta CEO Shae Bird. Enoch Cree Nation Elder Irene Morin and Edmonton Chamber CEO Jeffrey Sundquist join to talk about Elder Morin's new role as the Chamber's Elder in Residence, and what economic recovery looks like through a Reconciliation lens.  57:02 | We love when past guests and Real Talk audience members keep us posted on their adventures! Ryan highlights a special family experience from last night's NHL Awards shared by June 9 guest Kelsie Snow, and an update from Aleppo, Syria from March 31 guest Raija-Liisa Schmidt-Teigen.  1:00:10 | Through human history, countless people have tapped into the healing powers of the mountains. In this week's #MyJasper Memories presented by Tourism Jasper, we learn how living in Jasper helps Stephanie Sophocleous manage a serious health challenge.  SEE STEPH'S FULL STORY: https://www.jasper.travel/discover-jasper/venture-beyond-series/ CHECK OUT "SYMPHONY UNDER THE SUN" ON JUNE 28: https://www.jasper.travel/realtalk/

With just a few days to go before voting day in Ontario's election, friend-of-the-show Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to join me in a provincial tour of the battlegrounds and ridings to watch on Thursday night.Will Steven Del Duca's Liberals or Andrea Horwath's New Democrats emerge as the official opposition? Can Mike Schreiner's Greens win that coveted second seat? And is there anything that could get in the way of Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives winning the majority government that the polls suggest is well within their grasp?The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Entrevue avec Philippe J. Fournier, créateur Qc125 et 338Canada. Aussi enseignant au département de physique du Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal : y-a-t-il encore de l'espoir pour le PQ et le PLQ en vue des prochaines élections provinciales? Pour de l'information concernant l'utilisation de vos données personnelles - https://omnystudio.com/policies/listener/fr

Chronique Crime et Société avec Félix Séguin, journaliste au Bureau d'enquête de Québecor : Félix Séguin est en Ukraine. La Rencontre Lisée - Mulcair avec Jean-François Lisée, ancien chef du Parti québécois et chroniqueur politique, et Thomas Mulcair, ancien chef du NPD et analyste politique (La Joute, chroniqueur au Journal) : retour sur la présidentielle française remportée par Emmanuel Macron.  Segment LCN avec Richard et Jean-François Guérin : hommage émouvant à Guy Lafleur. Retour sur le départ de Véronique Hivon. Victoire de Macron. Entrevue avec Mathieu Grondin, directeur général de MTL 24/24 : un projet pilote d'événement 24 heures se tiendra du 21 au 23 mai dans le cadre de Montréal au Sommet de la nuit. Ce sera le premier projet dans la métropole qui accordera un permis d'alcool en continu.      L'éditorial de Richard Martineau : chronique annuelle sur les cyclistes. Discrimination positive chez un éditeur québécois.  La Rencontre Proulx-Martineau avec Gilles Proulx, chroniqueur au Journal de Montréal Journal de Québec : la mort de Guy Lafleur éclipse les morts de Bossy et Paolo Noël. Les Québécois sont ouverts au privé en santé. On ne parle plus autant de la guerre en Ukraine. La Rencontre Daoust-Martineau avec Yves Daoust, directeur de la section Argent du Journal de Montréal et du Journal de Québec : Guy Lafleur, vite sur patins, vite en affaires. Les hausses de salaire sont loin de suivre l'inflation. Entrevue avec Germain Goyer, Producteur de contenu automobile : l'état désastreux des routes au Québec ne s'améliore pas, les garagistes doivent répondre à une très grande demande liée aux bris causés par les nids-de-poule en plus des changements de pneus.  Chronique de Denise Bombardier, chroniqueuse au Journal de Montréal Journal de Québec : Emmanuel Macron remporte la présidentielle française. La Rencontre Bock-Côté - Martineau avec Mathieu Bock-Côté, chroniqueur blogueur au Journal de Montréal Journal de Québec et animateur du balado « Les idées mènent le monde » à QUB radio : retour sur la victoire d'Emmanuel Macron et les résultats de la présidentielle française.  Entrevue avec Philippe J. Fournier, créateur Qc125 et 338Canada. Aussi enseignant au département de physique du Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal : y a-t-il encore de l'espoir pour le PQ et le PLQ en vue des prochaines élections provinciales ?  Une production QUB radio Avril 2022 Pour de l'information concernant l'utilisation de vos données personnelles - https://omnystudio.com/policies/listener/fr

In just a little over three weeks, the Ontario election will be officially launched and in a little less than eight weeks we'll know who the winner is. At the moment, the polls suggest Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are on track to be re-elected.There have been a lot of new developments as the election gets closer and closer. Candidates are being nominated, political ads are hitting the airwaves and the reverberations out of Ottawa, be it a new child care agreement or the Liberal-NDP governing deal, are being felt in Toronto.To go through all the latest, I'm joined again this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen's Park Observer. You can check out her newsletter on everything Ontario-politics here.MONDAY NIGHT LIVESTREAM!Join me and 338Canada.com's Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8 PM ET for live coverage of the Quebec byelection results in Marie-Victorin. You'll find the livestream here. Be there and be square!In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I'm joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test! The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number. For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak's score from 2011? Will the Coalition Avenir Québec win more or less than 93.5 seats in the election in October?Join in on the contest with your predictions in the comments section. But you'll have to be patient — we'll only know the winner at the end of 2022!The full episode is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, but you'll most want to watch the entire discussion on YouTube:If you have any questions you'd like me to answer in a future episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.By the way! If you like the theme from The Writ Podcast, you can now listen to it unfiltered and uninterrupted! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Roy L Hales/ Cortes Currents - After a strong showing in 2019, the 2021 election seems like a step backward for the Green party, but Jessica Wegg is already talking about the next election. “There is too much at stake for us to loose hope or lose sight of that the goal is,” she said. “I think Vancouver Island is uniquely situated for Greens to do very well.” This was shown in 2019, when both 338Canada and CBC's Poll Tracker showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings throughout most of the campaign and at one point the Greens were within 5% of the leader in North Island-Powell River. What went wrong this time? internal divisions within the Green party, which could not be resolved in time for this election. COVID made direct communication difficult – everyone is tired of virtual conferencing and people do not have the emotional space to process what is still happening. Wegg says people should vote Green because none of the other parties are taking the Climate Crisis seriously enough. She pointed to the NDP's failure to commit to cancelling the Trans Mountain pipeline, a project the Liberal government is supporting. “If you are not ready to commit to bold measures like that, then you should get out of the way and let the Greens come in because we are taking this seriously,” said Wegg. She said one of the most concerning results of the election was how well the People's Party of Canada did: “It shows that people are getting more polarized.” “We need to keep talking to each other,” Wegg stressed.”This is the only way we are going to solve any problems. I think one of the strengths of the Green party is that we do try to remember to hear all the sides of the story because you cannot bring people on board with you to really affect change if you are only bringing the people who would come anyway.” (The Liberal and Conservative parties have also been asked for post election interviews, but have not responded.)

This week on The Writ podcast, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada joins me to pore over the electoral map with only a few days to go before the votes are cast and the ballots are counted. We take a cross-country tour of all the country's battlegrounds.Then, we play a game of over/under that you'll want to listen to.Finally, on this week's instalment of the #EveryElectionProject, I'm finishing up the series on recent elections by casting back all the way to the 2019 Canadian federal election.SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT!On Monday night, I hope you'll join me for my 2021 Federal Election Livestream on YouTube! The show will start at around 6:30 PM ET and will run until the wee hours of the morning when, hopefully, we'll have a result. I've invited some friends and special guests who will be popping by throughout the night.You can find the stream here.It'll be a lot of fun and I hope to see you there!I'll have a special bonus episode for subscribers up early (early) Monday morning after the last polls have been published.Until then, thanks for listening!This week's podcast title musical inspiration: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A Liberal government with a big lead in the polls decides to call a snap election in the hope of securing more time in power. Then the polls start to tighten. And eventually ... it doesn't work out the way they hoped.Is the Progressive Conservative victory in Nova Scotia a sign that should worry the federal Liberals, as they try to do the same thing? How did the polls get this one wrong? And what can we learn about federal elections from provincial results?GUEST: Philippe J. Fournier, 338Canada.com

Roy L Hales/ CKTZ News - Human rights lawyer and climate activist Jessica Wegg will be the Green Party candidate for North Island-Powell River during the next Federal election. “We can't keep having 40 degree summers in Comox, or wildfires destroying towns. There were tornadoes in Washington DC yesterday. It is so obvious, so apparent and completely unsustainable. And I need to know that I did everything in my power to make it better,” she said. According to Philippe J Fournier, of Macleans Magazine and the website 338Canada, the rumours swirling around Ottawa suggest the election will be in late summer or early next fall. “Crunching the numbers over the weekend, the only question that kept popping in my head is: Why?” he wrote. Recent polls suggest that if the election were held now, there would be another Liberal minority government. The most recent 338Canada's projection was made a week ago, at which point the Greens were leading in two Vancouver Island ridings: Saanich-Gulf Islands (a safe seat) and Nanaimo-Ladysmith (where they allegedly lead by a mere 1%). During the weeks leading up to the last Federal election, 338Canada's projects often showed the Greens leading in four of the seven island ridings. North Island-Powell River wasn't one of them, but in late August they were shown within 5% of the leading NDP. This groundswell of support disappeared in the week prior to the election and two Green MPs went to Ottawa. “I know that the Green Party made a strong showing in the last election and that was with people from the NDP telling them that they were going to split the vote, and it was a wasted vote. Making people think they would have to vote orange otherwise the Liberals or Conservatives were going to win,” said Jessica Wegg. “People can't be afraid anymore and I think they are seeing that. We have to focus on what is in our hearts and what we know. I think people are ready to do that.” Photo credit: Jessica Wegg and her son at the provincial legislature - courtesy Jessica Wegg

Elias Makos welcomes in David Heurtel, former provincial Liberal cabinet minister and counsel at Faskin and Justine McIntyre, former Montreal City Councillor to talk about A new poll from 338Canada.com showing Denis Coderre with a 16-point lead over Valerie Plante, Quebec's new budget and a Montreal Instagrammer who is publicly flouting Canada's quarantine rules.

Cette semaine, Philippe J. Fournier, créateur des plateformes QC125 et 338Canada

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - The final count will not be finished for another three weeks. However as of 1:58 AM this morning, Elections BC reports that 45.03% of the known electorate voted NDP, 35.41% chose the Liberal and 15.30% the Greens. John Horgan won his majority, Michele Babchuk is our new MLA. and the only real surprise was the Green party numbers on Vancouver Island. Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen have both been re-elected. The Green party has also won its first seat on the Mainland: West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky. >>> North Island Driving around Cortes Island recently, it's not surprising to learn that there was a three race in North Island. We may lean further to the left than most of British Columbia, but every lawn sign I saw was Green. Alexandra Morton is currently in second place. As she is less than a hundred votes ahead of Liberal candidate Norm Facey, this could change, but it is also a pattern repeated in other eight Island ridings*, as well as Powell River-Sunshine Coast. >>> The rest of Vancouver Island and Powell River Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Chris Istace trails Doug Routley (NDP) by 1,001 votes. Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Nicole Duncan trails Murray Rankin (NDP) by 1,647. Victoria-Beacon Hill, Jenn Neilson trails Jenn Neilson (NDP) by 1,777. Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Kim Darwin trails Nicholas Simons (NDP) by 2,166. Victoria-Swan Lake, Annemieke Holthuis trails Rob Fleming (NDP) by 2,739 Esquimalt-Mtechsin, Andy MacKinnion trails Mitzi Dean (NDP) by 3,136 Nanaimo, Lia Versaevel trails Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) by 3,857. Langford-Juan de Fuca, Gord Baird trails Premier John Horgan (NDP) by 3,887. Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Evan Jolicoeur trails Josie Osbourne (NDP) by 4,537. It seems unlikely that the Green Party will take any of these seats from the NDP after the final count, but the Liberal party finished second in most of these ridings in the 2017 provincial election. This is not the first election where the Green party has shown promise. In the weeks prior to the last federal election, 338Canada's projections showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings. This melted down to two on election day, which has been the pattern up until now. 1:54 This time, the numbers suggesting potential for a Green shift come from election results. One of the questions on a recent Angus Reid poll was what would be your second choice? The Green Party was 20% ahead of second place NDP. (Greens 34%; NDP 14%; Liberals 10%; “Another party” 18%; Undecided 22%) If there is a marked Green shift in the next election, or the one after that, most analysts expect it to be strongest on Vancouver Island.

Alan Carter does a big download of knowledge on two of his favorite topics... Beer and the Raptors. He also discusses the alarming study on cancer rates with global investigative journalist Megan Robinson, and the accuracy of Canadian polls with 338Canada.com creator Philippe J. Fournier.