Podcasts about 21school

Special seminar from the James Martin 21st Century School: Climate change and marine ecosystems: have dangerous changes already begun? The Earth's ocean is central to the conditions experienced on our planet, regulating its atmosphere, climate and biology. Recent evidence, however, suggests that the physical and chemical conditions within the ocean are changing in ways that are rapidly moving outside those experienced for millions of years with major changes to ocean temperature, acidity, sea ice extent, sea level, and storm intensity. These changes are impacting the biological components the ocean, including an array of important microbial systems. Observed changes so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, declining abundances of habitat forming species such as oysters, mangroves and corals, species range shifts, and an increased incidence of disease and invasion by exotic species. These changes to the marine biosphere are also beginning to amplify changes within major nutrient cycles, adding to impacts driven by other human activities such as coastal land use and overfishing. As we continue to push carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, there is also growing uncertainty as to the risks associated with passing non-linear triggers and tipping points. This talk will examine the totality of changes occurring in the world's oceans as result of anthropogenic climate change, and will explore the consequences for the biological systems that are otherwise crucial for healthy oceans and their many human dependents. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is Professor and Director, Global Change Institute, University of Queensland.

Paul Collier, Oxford Professor and author of The Bottom Billion, launched a discussion based on his latest publication, The Plundered Planet. Building on his work in developing countries and the poorest populations, Collier argued for proper stewardship of natural assets as a matter of planetary urgency. His arguments charted a course between unchecked profiteering on the one hand, and environmental romanticism on the other to offer realistic and sustainable solutions to these dauntingly complex issues.

In order to understand social systems, it is essential to identify the circumstances under which individuals spontaneously start cooperating or developing shared behaviors, norms, and culture. In this connection, it is important to study the role of social mechanisms such as repeated interactions, group selection, network formation, costly punishment and group pressure, and how they allow us to transform social dilemmas into interactive situations that promote the social system. Furthermore, it is interesting to study the role that social inequality, the protection of private property, or the on-going globalization play for the resulting 'character' of a social system (cooperative or not). It is well-known that social cooperation can suddenly break down, giving rise to poverty or conflict. The decline of high cultures and the outbreak of civil wars or revolutions are well-known examples. The more surprising is that one can develop an integrated game-theoretical description of phenomena as different as the outbreak and breakdown of cooperation, the formation of norms or subcultures, and the occurrence of conflicts. Delivered by Professor Dirk Helbing, Professor of Sociology, in particular of Modeling and Simulation, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland.

We live in an increasingly interconnected world of 'techno-social' systems, where infrastructures composed of different technological layers are interoperating within the social component that drives their use and development. The multi-scale nature and complexity of these networks are crucial features in understanding and managing them. In the last decade advances in performance in computer technology, data acquisition and complex networks theory allow the generation of sophisticated simulations on supercomputer infrastructures to anticipate the spreading pattern of a pandemic, predict the traffic pattern of successful web sites or provides insight and recommendations in the case of natural or intentional disruptive events. In particular I will use the example of the current H1N1 pandemic and present computing tools with the ambition of anticipating trends, evaluating risks and eventually managing future public policies in real time. Delivered by Professor Alessandro Vespignani: Professor of Informatics, Indiana University Bloomington, USA.

The oceans are a critical component of the climate system, storing roughly 1000 times as much heat, and 50 times as much carbon, as the atmosphere. In this talk, Professor David Marshall (21st Century Ocean Institute, University of Oxford) will discuss the challenges of predicting the evolution of a complex system that is grossly under-sampled and spans a bewildering range of scales in both space and time. These challenges will be illustrated through the important but over-sensationalised problem of how the Gulf Stream may change over the next century and impacts on European climate.

Cities are getting more complex as their residents acquire more and more ways in which they can interact with one another. New technologies enable individuals to repackage their time and space in countless different combinations, and the flexibility afforded by such innovations makes possible many new ways in which individuals might react to this complexity. Behavioural change is considerably greater in the modern city than the medieval. Delivered by Professor Mike Batty: Director, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London.

Growth, Innovation, and the Pace of Life from Cells and Ecosystems to Cities and Corporations; Are They Sustainable? Are cities and companies "just" very large organisms? They grow, metabolise, evolve and adapt; however, almost all cities survive, whereas all companies die. A quantitative, predictive, unifying framework for addressing such questions and understanding the generic structure, dynamics and life history of social and biological systems will be developed. It is based on general properties of the networks that sustain such complex systems and is inspired by the simplicity manifested by extraordinary "universal" scaling laws governing almost all characteristics of cities, companies and organisms. Examples discussed will include vascular systems, growth, cancer, aging and mortality, sleep, and evolutionary rates. When extended to cities and companies the theory shows why, in contrast to biology which is dominated by economies of scale, the overall pace of life, including rates of innovation, systematically accelerates. This has dramatic implications for growth, development and sustainability: innovation and wealth creation that fuel cities, corporations and economies, if left unchecked, lead to fatal singularities that potentially sow the seeds for their inevitable collapse. Delivered by Professor Geoffrey West: Distinguished Professor, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico, USA.

The recent banking crises have made it clear that increasingly complex strategies for managing risk in individual banks and investment funds (pension funds, etc) has not been matched by corresponding attention to overall systemic risks. Simple mathematical caricatures of 'banking ecosystems', which capture some of the essential dynamics and which have some parallels (along with significant differences) with earlier work on stability and complexity in ecological food webs, have interesting implications. In particular, strategies that tend to minimise risk for individual banks can - under certain circumstances - maximise the probability of systemic failure. This talk will first sketch these models and the ensuing conclusions. Delivered by Professor Lord Robert May of Oxford: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford.

Lessons from Financial Crises: Paradigm Failure and the Future of Financial Regulation. In October, George Soros delivered a week-long series of lectures at the Central European University in Budapest discussing his latest thinking on economics and politics, and the way forward out of the current financial crisis. Soros argued that while the magnitude of the credit and leverage problem faced today is greater than in the Great Depression, the artificial life support given to the financial system has been successful. However, Soros believes that the recovery may run out of steam and sees a possibility for a "double-dip" in the next year. At this event, George Soros will lead a panel discussion to reflect on some of the key ideas that he put forward in those lectures. He will particularly invite discussion among both the panellists and the audience to engage with his ideas and understand the alternative they represent when compared with traditional economic theory.

Despite the well-publicised success of global smallpox eradication, 'zero' remains an elusive goal for the majority of vaccine-preventable diseases, making reduced pathogen circulation, or direct protection of the vulnerable more achievable strategies. We will consider potential deleterious consequences of reduced infection transmission, in the context of diseases such as influenza and pertussis, where immunity following natural exposure may be superior to that following immunisation. Implications for vaccine design and implementation will be discussed. This seminar was delivered by Dr Jodie McVernon: Programme Leader, Mathematical Modelling. Deputy Head, Vaccine and Immunisation Research Group, Melbourne School of Population Health, Australia.

Achieving an end-state of "zero" has emerged as an important policy goal for a number of 21st Century challenges. The most prominent example is the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. Few issues are more appropriate subjects of humanitarian concern and international humanitarian law than the choice, possession, use and misuse of weapons. A body of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and Disarmament Treaty Law has been built up over the last century to control and prohibit a range of weapons and weapons use. IHL and the social norms and values on which it is based, are the tools by which humanity has protected itself from misuse of its technical capacities for destruction and demonstrated its capacity for wisdom. Recent successes in disarmament through the merging of international humanitarian law and disarmament treaty law could be built upon to push for a radical, practical approach to nuclear disarmament, putting people and human frailty at the centre of the debate and being focused on achieving a safer world, free from nuclear weapons. This seminar was delivered by Dr Patricia Lewis: Deputy Director, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, California, USA.

Achieving an end-state of "zero" has emerged as an important policy goal for a number of 21st Century challenges. The most prominent example is the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. To stand any chance of getting near to zero, nuclear weapons must be marginalised in military and security doctrines. That means creating international norms and, if feasible, agreements that until nuclear weapons are universally prohibited by treaty, their use will be treated as a crime against humanity. Dr Johnson considers how the problems of doctrine and use could be addressed. This seminar was delivered by Dr Rebecca Johnson: Executive Director, Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy, London.

Geoengineering the climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty: The Royal Society Study - John Shepherd (NOCS). The climate change we are experiencing now is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activities, including burning fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation. There is now widespread belief that a global warming of greater than 2C above pre-industrial levels would be dangerous and should therefore be avoided. However, despite growing concerns over climate change, global CO2 emissions have continued to climb. This has led some to suggest more radical 'Geoengineering' alternatives to conventional mitigation via reductions in CO2 emissions. Geoengineering is deliberate intervention in the climate system to counteract man-made global warming. There are two main classes of geoengineering; direct carbon dioxide removal, and solar radiation management, which aims to cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight out to space. This talk will summarise the findings of a recent review of Geoengineering carried-out by the UK Royal Society discussing the climate effects, costs, risks, and research and governance needs for each approach.

Distinguished Public Lecture: The end of business as usual by Dr Mohamed El-Erian, Co-CIO of PIMCO. In the wake of last year's financial crisis, businesses, economists, policy makers and analysts around the world are asking if the events of 2008 mean the end of business as usual for the global financial system. Dr Mohamed El-Erian, Co-CIO of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund, and one of the world's most respected economic analysts, certainly thinks that it does.

Achieving an end-state of "zero" has emerged as an important policy goal for a number of 21st Century challenges. The most prominent example is the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. To stand any chance of getting near to zero, nuclear weapons must be marginalised in military and security doctrines. That means creating international norms and, if feasible, agreements that until nuclear weapons are universally prohibited by treaty, their use will be treated as a crime against humanity. Dr Johnson considers how the problems of doctrine and use could be addressed.

Some developing countries have achieved rapid economic growth and poverty reduction while others have stagnated. This talk will review the determinants of success and the prospects for lagging regions to improve performance and eliminate poverty. Achieving an end-state of "zero" has emerged as an important policy goal for a number of 21st Century challenges. The most prominent example is the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. Yet, in a century of globalization, when the life of every individual is directly affected by a vast network of forces beyond their control, this concept has the power to inspire action on some of the most intractable problems of our time.

The Rt Hon Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP on how, in the 21st century, nuclear weapons pose a greater danger than ever before and their possession is less necessary. The time has come to forge agreement on a process of multilateral disarmament. Achieving an end-state of "zero" has emerged as an important policy goal for a number of 21st Century challenges. The most prominent example is the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. Yet, in a century of globalization, when the life of every individual is directly affected by a vast network of forces beyond their control, this concept has the power to inspire action on some of the most intractable problems of our time.

These seminars were run by the Oxford Martin School (formerly the James Martin 21st Century School) in association with the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict. Three intersecting considerations will be examined for their relevance in assessing the wisdom of adopting 'zero' as the goal for an international initiative: 1) Tactics: Whether and how framing an issue in terms of getting to zero can be a successful technique for issue advocates? 2) Diplomatic strategy: What is the wisdom of going ahead with a major initiative even without key players? 3) Ethics: Even if we forecast that a campaign of getting to zero is not likely to be entirely or even terribly successful, can initiatives of getting to zero still recommend themselves ethically nonetheless or even be plausibly counted as moral imperatives? This seminar was delivered by Professor Richard Price: Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia, Canada.

Professor Sir Nicholas Stern, HM Treasury: The economics of climate change Introduced by: Dr John Hood, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Oxford. Chaired by: Dr Ian Goldin, Director of the James Martin 21st Century School.