Podcasts about mathematical modelling

Send us a textDisclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is for educational purposes only and is not intended as medical advice. Always consult with a qualified healthcare professional or your medical practitioner before making any changes to your diet, supplementation, or treatment plan, especially if you have a concussion or mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). The content shared here should not replace personalized care from your doctor or nutritionist.Welcome back to Headfirst: A Concussion Podcast. We're excited to bring you another insightful episode, and today, we have the privilege of speaking with Dr. Federica Conti. Dr. Conti's academic journey is truly impressive—she earned her master's in Mathematical Modelling and Scientific Computing from the prestigious Oxford University, before going on to complete a PhD in Cognitive Neuroscience. Her work stands at the fascinating crossroads of neuroscience, sleep science, and nutrition, with a special focus on how these areas intersect to optimize brain health and protect against neurodegenerative diseases. Dr. Conti's research has made significant contributions to the field, particularly in understanding how lifestyle factors such as sleep patterns and dietary choices can influence brain function. Her ground-breaking papers, including Mitigating Traumatic Brain Injury: A Narrative Review of Supplementation and Dietary Protocols, offer critical insights into how nutrition and supplementation can play a role and possibly reduce the effects of traumatic brain injuries.  -       About the publication (02:25)-       What is a Concussion? (03:59)-       Differences between micronutrients, biological compounds (06:46)Nutrients, Food and Supplementation-       Creatine Monohydrate (08:51)-       Omega-3 Fatty Acids DHA and EPA (17:31) -       Magnesium (27:13)-       BCAA's (32:27)-       Riboflavin and B Vitamins (36:30)-       Top 3 Supplements we should consider mTBI and Cognitive Health (41:00) -       Dr Conti's research, how can people help or find her work? (47:50) Mitigating Traumatic Brain Injury: A Narrative Review of Supplementation and Dietary Protocols: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382609510_Mitigating_Traumatic_Brain_Injury_A_Narrative_Review_of_Supplementation_and_Dietary_Protocols?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InByb2ZpbGUiLCJwYWdlIjoicHJvZmlsZSJ9fQ Dr Conti's Journal Articles: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Federica-Conti-4 Instagram: @fede.rica.conti

David is joined by George Simmons, an impact activation postdoctoral fellow at IDEMS. In collaboration with CASAS Global, George has spent a year working on their Physiologically Based Demographic Modelling (PBDM) system, a style of modelling used to account for the ecosystem level dynamics that happen in a farm field. They elaborate on the project's integration with more modern mathematical techniques, the influence of the TOPOS Institute's collaborative approach, and the broader implications of the work.

Can burning fossil fuels be phased out before the world gets too hot to live in? Synopsis: The Straits Times' climate editor David Fogarty is at COP28 from Nov 23 till Dec 12 in Dubai, the United Nations climate change conference. Every year, the Global Carbon Project releases its Carbon Budget, which projects global fossil fuel and land use emissions. The Global Carbon Project is a consortium of scientific institutions and the annual carbon budget study involves more than 100 scientists.  And this year's study predicts that fossil fuel carbon emissions will reach a new record in 2023, driven largely by strong growth in coal, oil and gas consumption in India and China. On top of this are carbon emissions from land use, such as deforestation and fires globally.  And the world could hit the 1.5 deg C key temperature limit within 7 years at current rates of emissions, the study says. In this episode, recorded at COP28, ST's David Fogarty hosts leading climate scientist Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who coordinates the Global Carbon Budget study. He is also Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter in Britain. Highlights of conversation (click/tap above): 4:07 Key findings from this year's Global Carbon Budget analysis 6:38 What are the trends for fossil fuel emissions in India and China? 9:38 Which findings from this year's study concern Professor Friedlingstein the most, and which give him hope? 12:00 Is the world any closer to a global peak of emissions? 14:56 The land and oceans absorb a lot of CO2; will they remain in good shape as the world warms? Produced by: David Fogarty (dfogarty@sph.com.sg), Ernest Luis and Amirul Karim Edited by: Amirul Karim Follow Green Pulse Podcast here and rate us: Channel: https://str.sg/JWaf Apple Podcasts: https://str.sg/JWaY Spotify: https://str.sg/JWag Website: http://str.sg/stpodcasts Feedback to: podcast@sph.com.sg Follow David Fogarty on X: https://str.sg/JLM6 Read his articles: https://str.sg/JLMu --- Discover more ST podcast channels: COE Watch: https://str.sg/iTtE In Your Opinion: https://str.sg/w7Qt Asian Insider: https://str.sg/JWa7 Health Check: https://str.sg/JWaN Green Pulse: https://str.sg/JWaf Your Money & Career: https://str.sg/wB2m ST Sports Talk: https://str.sg/JWRE #PopVultures: https://str.sg/JWad Music Lab: https://str.sg/w9TX Discover ST Podcasts: http://str.sg/stpodcasts --- Special edition series: True Crimes Of Asia (6 eps): https://str.sg/i44T The Unsolved Mysteries of South-east Asia (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuZ2 Invisible Asia (9 eps): https://str.sg/wuZn Stop Scams (10 eps): https://str.sg/wuZB Singapore's War On Covid (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuJa --- Follow our shows then, if you like short, practical podcasts! #GreenPulse #COP28See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can burning fossil fuels be phased out before the world gets too hot to live in? Synopsis: The Straits Times' climate editor David Fogarty is at COP28 from Nov 23 till Dec 12 in Dubai, the United Nations climate change conference. Every year, the Global Carbon Project releases its Carbon Budget, which projects global fossil fuel and land use emissions. The Global Carbon Project is a consortium of scientific institutions and the annual carbon budget study involves more than 100 scientists.  And this year's study predicts that fossil fuel carbon emissions will reach a new record in 2023, driven largely by strong growth in coal, oil and gas consumption in India and China. On top of this are carbon emissions from land use, such as deforestation and fires globally.  And the world could hit the 1.5 deg C key temperature limit within 7 years at current rates of emissions, the study says. In this episode, recorded at COP28, ST's David Fogarty hosts leading climate scientist Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who coordinates the Global Carbon Budget study. He is also Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter in Britain. Highlights of conversation (click/tap above): 4:07 Key findings from this year's Global Carbon Budget analysis 6:38 What are the trends for fossil fuel emissions in India and China? 9:38 Which findings from this year's study concern Professor Friedlingstein the most, and which give him hope? 12:00 Is the world any closer to a global peak of emissions? 14:56 The land and oceans absorb a lot of CO2; will they remain in good shape as the world warms? Produced by: David Fogarty (dfogarty@sph.com.sg), Ernest Luis and Amirul Karim Edited by: Amirul Karim Follow Green Pulse Podcast here and rate us: Channel: https://str.sg/JWaf Apple Podcasts: https://str.sg/JWaY Spotify: https://str.sg/JWag Website: http://str.sg/stpodcasts Feedback to: podcast@sph.com.sg Follow David Fogarty on X: https://str.sg/JLM6 Read his articles: https://str.sg/JLMu --- Discover more ST podcast channels: COE Watch: https://str.sg/iTtE In Your Opinion: https://str.sg/w7Qt Asian Insider: https://str.sg/JWa7 Health Check: https://str.sg/JWaN Green Pulse: https://str.sg/JWaf Your Money & Career: https://str.sg/wB2m ST Sports Talk: https://str.sg/JWRE #PopVultures: https://str.sg/JWad Music Lab: https://str.sg/w9TX Discover ST Podcasts: http://str.sg/stpodcasts --- Special edition series: True Crimes Of Asia (6 eps): https://str.sg/i44T The Unsolved Mysteries of South-east Asia (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuZ2 Invisible Asia (9 eps): https://str.sg/wuZn Stop Scams (10 eps): https://str.sg/wuZB Singapore's War On Covid (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuJa --- Follow our shows then, if you like short, practical podcasts! #GreenPulse #COP28See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's episode Victoria Gill speaks to Nida al-Fulaij, conservation research manager at the People's Trust for Endangered Species, about the UK's new State of Nature report. Climate change, habitat loss and intensive agricultural practices have been blamed for the decline in species. But all is not lost. Victoria pays a visit to an eco-friendly farm and finds out how innovative agricultural practices can boost wildlife in the UK's fields. We're kicking off our series of programmes covering The Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize. Chair of the judges is Alain Goriely, Professor of Mathematical Modelling at the University of Oxford. He gives us a rundown of this year's shortlisted entries. This week, scientists at CERN in Switzerland announced they have observed how antimatter behaves in the presence of gravity. Particle physicist Jeffrey Hangst, who led the Alpha experiment, tells us why this is a big deal. We also have the latest on OSIRIS-REx mission, the first NASA mission to return a sample of an asteroid to Earth. The capsule parachuted down into the Utah desert this week. It contained a precious cargo of rock and dust samples taken from an asteroid named Bennu. Jon Amos, the BBC's science correspondent is in Utah and witnessed the return. He tells Victoria all about it. BBC Inside Science is produced in collaboration with the Open University. Presenter:  Victoria Gill Producers: Hannah Robins, Harrison Lewis, Alice Lipscombe-Southwell Editor: Richard Collings    Production Co-ordinator: Jana Bennett-Holesworth

Imagine unlocking the future of medicine with a single mathematical formula. That's what we're exploring with the brilliant Dr. Lex Van Loon, who has made an incredible impact in the realm of technical medicine. As a pioneer in this specialized field, Dr. Van Loon reveals how he uses mathematical modeling and artificial intelligence to transform biocomputation, and shares his experiences from the technical medicine program in the Netherlands. This unique course blends physics, mathematics, and medicine to equip doctors with the knowledge they need to embrace the latest techniques and technologies in healthcare.The journey doesn't end there. Dr. Van Loon transports us to the sunny shores of Australia, where he ventured into the thrilling world of space medicine. Hear about his ground-breaking work in developing a model that predicts a person's fitness for space travel using patient data. This innovative approach has significant implications for space tourism, offering a safer and more personalized experience for future astronauts. As we soar into the final frontier, Dr. Van Loon delves into the physical impacts of space travel on the human body. He illuminates the process of creating personalized models of the cardiopulmonary system to assess an individual's health and fitness for space missions. We also explore the potential of using simulations for real-time health assessments of astronauts in space. And for all you young explorers out there, Dr. Van Loon shares some invaluable advice for those aspiring to make their mark in this incredible field. So, are you ready to launch into the future of space medicine? Tune in and let's embark on this extraordinary journey together.Dr. Van loon's email: LexMaxim.vanLoon@anu.edu.auInnovative SimSolutions.Your turnkey solution provider for medical simulation programs, sim centers & faculty design.

Understanding how living cells work is difficult due to the number of varied and complex processes occurring in them. This complexity can be elucidated by breaking these processes down and focusing on a particular mechanism. One approach is to use mathematical equations – the basis of computational modelling. Dr Susan Mertins, the founder and CEO of Biosystem Strategies LLC, in the USA, is exploring how ordinary differential equations and machine learning can be applied to cancer data for biomarker discovery and drug development, leading to improvements in personalised medicine.Read more in Research OutreachRead some of their latest work here: https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2021.805592

Around 10% of us will experience kidney stones at some point in our life. They occur when waste products in the blood form small crystals, which gather together in the kidneys to form hard lumps. Small kidney stones (

The dynamic interplay between epidemiological research, virus evolution, and mathematical modelling is skilfully described by Dr Colin Russell, Professor of Applied Evolutionary Biology and ESWI Board Member. Flu was Prof. Russell's first love, however the complex epidemiological pathways of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked his interest in how mathematical modelling informs pandemic response particularly in LMICs.

歡迎嚟到 搞乜咁科學 GMG Science 第3集！今集嘅主題係規律Pattern！Keith會講一個同國家人口、原子重量同金融詐騙都有關嘅數字規律，Abellona會解釋究竟豹嘅斑點係點樣黎嘅呢?喂！好奇心，係時候醒喇 :)Social Media:搞乜咁科學 IG搞乜咁科學 YouTubeAbellona IGKeith IGKeith YouTube 班佛定律 Benford's LawBenford's Law WikipediaNewcomb, S. (1881). Note on the frequency of use of the different digits in natural numbers. American Journal of mathematics, 4(1), 39-40. Benford, F. (1938). The law of anomalous numbers. Proceedings of the American philosophical society, 551-572. 用Benford's Law發現會計數據有問題?!Durtschi, C., Hillison, W., & Pacini, C. (2004). The effective use of Benford's law to assist in detecting fraud in accounting data. Journal of forensic accounting, 5(1), 17-34. 選舉票數有問題都一樣check到!Roukema, Boudewijn F. (2014). "A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election". Journal of Applied Statistics拜登選票唔乎合 Benford's Law? - Stand-up Maths on YouTube 豹嘅斑點係點黎?!Turing pattern 圖靈規律 WikipediaTURING, A. (1952). THE CHEMICAL BASIS OF MOKPHOGENESIS. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 237(641), 37-72.用電腦模擬運算圖靈model而產生規律的例子Headon, D. J., & Painter, K. J. (2009). Stippling the skin: Generation of anatomical periodicity by reaction-diffusion mechanisms. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 4(4), 83-102.用圖靈Model 可以解釋到生物界嘅其他規律嘅生成Kondo, S., & Miura, T. (2010). Reaction-diffusion model as a framework for understanding biological pattern formation. Science, 329(5999), 1616-1620.Marcon, L., & Sharpe, J. (2012). Turing patterns in development: what about the horse part? Current opinion in genetics & development, 22(6), 578-584.用生物模擬（口內的上顎）實踐到圖靈規律出黎Economou, A. D., Ohazama, A., Porntaveetus, T., Sharpe, P. T., Kondo, S., Basson, M. A., ... & Green, J. (2012). Periodic stripe formation by a Turing mechanism operating at growth zones in the mammalian palate. Nature genetics, 44(3), 348-351.定斷貓有幾多白色的基因David, V. A., Menotti-Raymond, M., Wallace, A. C., Roelke, M., Kehler, J., Leighty, R., ... & Ryugo, D. K. (2014). Endogenous retrovirus insertion in the KIT oncogene determines white and white spotting in domestic cats. G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics, 4(10), 1881-1891.

Professor Samir Bhatt gives a talk on the mathematics underpinning infectious disease models. Mathematical descriptions of infectious disease outbreaks are fundamental to understanding how transmission occurs. Reductively, two approaches are used: individual based simulators and governing equation models, and both approaches have a multitude of pros and cons. This talk connects these two worlds via general branching processes and discusses (at a high level) the rather beautiful mathematics that arises from them and how they can help us understand the assumptions underpinning mathematical models for infectious disease. This talk explains how this new maths can help us understand uncertainty better, and shows some simple examples. This talk is somewhat technical, but focuses as much as possible on intuition and the big picture.

Freddie Sayers meets Dr Camilla Holten-Møller, chair of the Expert Group for Mathematical Modelling at Denmark's public health agency ‘Statens Serum Institut'.Holten-Møller was in charge of producing the models before Christmas that informed Danish policy, and her group's updated advice in January led to the cancellation of all Danish Covid restrictions (even as case numbers continue to climb to all-time highs). She joins UnHerd to discuss Denmark's radical new policy, data modelling and why Omicron might be the end of the pandemic.Read the Post article here. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In this episode, we are joined by René Niehus, Expert in Mathematical Modelling, in order to find out more about how ECDC uses models in public health. We get to understand the different kinds of data that can go into models, and how continually analysing new data can build better models in the future. You can find more information on the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub here. You can find more information on ECDC here, or follow us on Social Media for the latest news.

Dr. Diana Fisher is a retired mathematics teacher. She taught math and computer programming for over 30 years and System Dynamics modeling for over 20 years at the high school level. Since 2014, she has been teaching a series of online SD courses for teachers. She earned a PhD in Systems Science from Portland State University where she also taught environmental math modeling using SD. She also earned a Graduate Certificate in System Dynamics from WPI.Transcript: https://bit.ly/SD-cast-Ep9-TranscriptVideos about the importance of teaching SD modeling in high school algebra classes:  https://youtu.be/xjGuZR4zehUhttps://youtu.be/sulh0klDk_gLearn more about Diana, her 3 sequential online SD courses that are 10 weeks each and run in the summer for those who want to teach system dynamics, her presentations and her high school student's model presentations on her website ccmodelingsystems.com https://ccmodelingsystems.com/courses/Links to her books:Lessons in Mathematics: A Dynamic Approach    https://www.iseesystems.com/store/books/lessons-in-mathematics/andModeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons For a First Course  https://www.iseesystems.com/store/books/modeling-dynamic-systems/And information on publications:Lifetime Achievement Award (2011): Fisher, D. M. (2011). “Everybody thinking differently”: K-12 is a leverage point. System Dynamics Review. 27, (4): 394-411.Fisher, D. M. (2017). Reorganizing algebraic thinking: An introduction to dynamic system modeling. The Mathematics Enthusiast, 14(1). Article 20. Available at: http://scholarworks.umt.edu/tme/vol14/iss1/20.Fisher, D. M. (2018). Reflections on teaching system dynamics modeling to secondary school  students for over 20 years. Systems Journal Special Edition: Theory and Practice of System Dynamics Modelling, 6(12).  Available at: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/6/2/12/htm.Fisher D.M. (2020) Algebra students build stock/flow models to study non-linear, dynamic feedback system problems. In: Stillman G., Kaiser G., Lampen C. (eds) Mathematical Modelling Education and Sense-making. International Perspectives on the Teaching and Learning of Mathematical Modelling. Springer, Cham.Dr. Diana FisherMade learning environments richerWith CC-STADUS and CC-SUSTAINThrough which she helped trainK-12 educators in systems modelingTo facilitate student-centered learningAnd autonomy and curiosity in students.Focus on incremental improvementsWhen you first start teachingAnd remember to be gentle with gradingHelp students define the problem scopeAnd their models pass the units checkTo tackle problems that are complexBut most of all inspire in them hopeThank you for listening to SD-cast. Please subscribe to SD-cast to hear more SDories.Email me, ctang@wpi.edu, if you would like to be on SD-cast or recommend someone.  See below for the WPI SD Social Media accounts:https://twitter.com/WPISDclubhttps://www.linkedin.com/groups/1916314/And the sign up link for the WPI System Dynamics Club mailing list: https://bit.ly/WPIsdMailForm

Alfio Quarteroni is Professor of Numerical Analysis and Director of of the Laboratory for Modeling and Scientific Computing -- otherwise known as MOX -- at the Polytechnic University of Milan in Italy. He is the founder (and first director) of MOX and of MATHICSE at EPFL, Lausanne, where he is Emeritus Professor. He is co-founder (and President) of MOXOFF, a spin-off company. His research interests concern Mathematical Modelling, Numerical  Analysis, Scientific Computing, and applications in fluid mechanics, geophysics, medicine, epidemiology, and the improvement of sports performance. His research group at EPFL has contributed to the preliminary design of Solar Impulse, the Swiss, long-range experimental solar-powered aircraft project; they also carried out the mathematical simulation optimising the performances of the Alinghi yacht, twice winner of the America's Cup. He authored or edited 37 books and contributed more than 400 articles to international scientific journals and conference proceedings. He also serves on many editorial boards of journals and book series.He is a plenary speaker at ECM 2021, where he will give a talk on Mathematical Modeling of the Cardiac FunctionRelated Books and Journals and Springer homepage of the podcast: https://www.springer.com/gp/campaign/mathematics-podcasts

The real life use of Mathematical Modelling is seen in our lives.In present time,data analysis and Mathematical Modelling are helping scientists and researchers to get correct cures for Corona

Continuing with the concept of Mathematical Modelling, let's hope that this will make you understand what steps are involved in making a Mathematical model

Mathematical Modelling is a process to convert real life problems to mathematical ones and find solutions mathematically.

Team Monday Morning is here with the journey of a final year Integrated Master of Science student from the Department of Mathematics whose work ethics and social skills are set as an example for the years to come. Holding myriads of positions of responsibilities such as Placement Secretary of Training and Placement Committee, General Secretary KMS Hall of Residence, NCC C-Certificate Holder, and a prominent member of Synergy (the official dance club), Swadha has interned at a prestigious research centre, including CSIR, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Simulation and finally has bagged the dream job at Fractal Analytics. Listen on to find out more about her 5-year journey at NIT Rourkela. Link to the complete article: https://mondaymorning.nitrkl.ac.in/article/2021/03/29/2949-commitment-to-excellence-swadha-/

Ice shelves can be as large as a small country, so how can ocean waves and sea ice contribute to their catastrophic destruction?This week, Dr Niamh Chapman and Dr Sophie Calabretto speak to multi-award-winning applied mathematician Associate Professor Luke Bennetts about wave science, sea ice modelling, and their link to catastrophic destruction of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula.Show theme music: Kevin MacLeodHost: Niamh Chapman (@nchapmanTAS) & Sophie Calabretto (@sophluidynamics)Production: Meredith Castles (@meredithcastles) & Olly Dove (@littledove440) & Sarah LydenMedia & Promotion: Olivia Holloway (@LivHolloway_) & Kate Johnson (@KatePlantPhys)

You've probably heard it mentioned out of the corner of your ear. Mathematical Modelling. What does it look like, how does it work, where would you even start? And why is a Dublin mathematician modelling the results of electrical currents in human brains? (Donated, don't worry)With Aine Byrne @ainebyrnemaths, Assistant Professor at the Department of Maths and Statistics in UCD and (briefly at the start) 5 year old Ruby with her own model of how the brain works. And me, hoping to learn from both. Comments, suggestions, criticism -take it handy though-  to @colmoregan @functionroompod on twitter. 

The psychology behind mathematical modelling of epidemics

Our understanding of and reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic has been largely driven by the modelling developed by infectious disease experts. While this is largely referred to as ‘science’, both mathematical and sociological considerations are crucial to this modelling process. Here, Dr Raj Persaud speaks to Professor Chris Bauch, whose work is centred on applying mathematics to real-world problems in infectious diseases, about how this modelling system works and how effective our response has been.

The Grey Squirrel invasion explaining tumour cell proliferation? Alan Turing explaining football shirt patterns? The close relationship between slugs and the human heart? What is the common link? Mathematics of course. And Philip Maini. Oxford Mathematics Public Lectures are generously supported by XTX Markets.

The Grey Squirrel invasion explaining tumour cell proliferation? Alan Turing explaining football shirt patterns? The close relationship between slugs and the human heart? What is the common link? Mathematics of course. And Philip Maini. Oxford Mathematics Public Lectures are generously supported by XTX Markets.

Drug company AstraZeneca is to start producing a potential vaccine for coronavirus, as the company's chief executive Pascal Soriot, explains. There's been a surprise fall in the US unemployment rate in May which now stands at 13.3%; we hear from the BBC's Samira Hussain. Today is the UN's World Environment Day and the BBC's Fergus Nicoll asks whether global lockdowns make a long-term difference to climate change. We hear from Tanushree Ganguly of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water in Delhi and Li Shuo from Greenpeace Asia. We also get the perspective of Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, a specialist in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter and we hear from former senior UN climate official, Rachel Kyte, who's now Dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University in the United States.

Professor James McCaw is one of the leaders of the pandemic modelling group advising Australia's National Cabinet. In this episode, Professor McCaw talks about the role mathematical modelling played in Australia's response to COVID-19, and we explore how this crisis has given many people a glimpse into how maths and stats can play a key role in tackling problems they wouldn't expect. The Random Sample is a podcast by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers. In this show, we share stories about mathematics, statistics and the people involved. To learn more about ACEMS, visit https://acems.org.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Caroline Colijn from SFU’s MAGPIE Research Group in British Columbia speaks about her team’s work on COVID-19 Mathematical Modelling in collaboration with the BC Centre for Disease Control and:Contact tracing options: their pros, cons and technological barriersThe proven benefits of physical / social distancing and hand hygieneEvaluating exposure risks of various social settings (beaches, trails, clubs)The ideal COVID-19 data set needed in a perfect world The key role that mathematical modelling has played during the pandemicReasons why BC might have performed better in responding to the crisisDefining R0 (R naught) and prevalence as valuable metrics in understanding the virusHer work on the panel with Canada’s chief science advisor Dr. Mona NemerHow COVID-19 preparedness is different from flu preparednessHow Canada learned from the SARS epidemicThe limitations of reported cases vs actual cases in the populationWhy the “multiple waves” analogy is a misconceptionWhy mathematical models have a threshold related to exponential growthRESOURCESCaroline Colijnon Twitter: https://twitte.com/CarolineColijn at SFU: https://www.sfu.ca/math/department/faculty/colijn--caroline.html The MAGPIE Research Groupat SFU: https://www.sfu.ca/magpie/home.htmlCOVID-19 Research page: https://www.sfu.ca/magpie/covid-19.html on Twitter: https://twitter.com/magpieresearch Dr. Mona Nemer (Canada's Chief Science Advisor)On Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChiefSciCanGovernment of Canada: https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/063.nsf/eng/h_97646.htmlBACKGROUND READINGReal-time modelling of the COVID-19 epidemic: perspectives from British Columbia:Caroline Colijn and Daniel Coombs | Posted May 14, 2020Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing Caroline Colijn et al | Posted April 22, 2020.Coronavirus: ‘Incomplete’ data for Canada hurts ability to model pandemic, scientists say Beatrice Britneff | Posted April 17, 2020The Tyee: She Plots the Possible Arcs of the PandemicSteve Burgess | Posted March 26, 2020ABOUT THE PODCASTRate this podcast, Please share your feedbackBest way to reach Gordon Ruby: LinkedInSci Comm and Civic Tech on Social:Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube

Mathematician Alex James, from Te Pūnaha Matatini & the University of Canterbury, explains the art and science of modelling the coronavirus pandemic.

Mathematician Alex James, from Te Pūnaha Matatini & the University of Canterbury, explains the art and science of modelling the coronavirus pandemic.

Alison Ballance chats with mathematician Alex James, who has been helping model the coronavirus pandemic in New Zealand.

Alison Ballance chats with mathematician Alex James, who has been helping model the coronavirus pandemic in New Zealand.

This episode comes at a critical juncture when we are still pondering ways in which the lockdown can be lifted in a calibrated manner in some areas while being extended in others as the battle to contain the spread of COVID-19 in India continues. There are crucial questions to be asked about how to contain the virus if the lockdown is lifted, what kind of data we may need to determine the spread of the virus in the population and how to balance the costs of an extended lockdown with the economic fallout. Mathematical modelling is essential to chart a course forward and frame policy around these questions and we try and break down some of these concepts in this conversation. Guest: Dr. Gautam Menon, Professor of physics and biology, Ashoka University. Researcher on the modelling of infectious diseases and its implications for public policy (Recorded on April 11, 2020) Write to us with comments and feedback at socmed4@thehindu.co.in

Our guest for this episode is Daniel Coombs, a professor in the Department of Mathematics at UBC and an Associate of the Peter Wall Institute (PWIAS). Coombs is also an expert on multi-scale infectious disease models and a member of the Mathematical Biology Group and the Institute of Applied Mathematics at UBC. In this episode, Ways of Knowing host Kalina Christoff and Daniel Coombs discuss the mathematical modelling of the new coronavirus and how it can be used to improve our response to the current outbreak. The discussion focuses on three recent mathematical models with relevance to COVID-19 public policy:• The Imperial College model that led the UK Government to drastically change its response to the COVID-19 outbreak• A model by researchers at Oxford, emphasizing the importance of antibody testing to determine the extent of already existing COVID-19 immunity in the population• A model by researchers from the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University, demonstrating that minimizing infections and minimizing deaths are not the same thingThis episode was produced remotely, with Coombs and Christoff recording from their respective homes.

Frank Braun talks with Arto Bendiken about the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). How did we get here and what convinced us to prep. Paranoia, case fatality rates, and vaccines. Secondary and tertiary effects. Normalcy, authority, and confirmation bias. Subscribe Pocket Casts Spotify Stitcher Apple Podcasts Overcast Google Podcasts PlayerFM YouTube Show Notes Introduction 00:01:40 What set this whole thing in motion? Both Frank and Arto are already in lockdown mode, and prepared. It’s ~6 weeks since both of them started “buying some insurance”. Arto prepared for 11 people. 00:05:25 What made you think it’s going to be a big deal? (Risk assessment) Observations from Wuhan. Lessons from Spanish Influenza 1918-1920. High infectiousness, showing no symptoms while being infectious. People suddenly dropping in the streets. 00:08:00 Book: “The Great Influenza” Few media coverage on strange cases, like the woman dropping on the vegetable market. 2020, A strange year 00:09:10 First week of February: cancelling all travel plans (Arto Bendiken). 00:10:00 “An earthquake happened in Wuhan, and the tsunami will follow. It is hard to see the tsunami until it comes close to the shore, but it will follow.” (Arto citing Steve) 00:11:05 Analytical preparation, emotional process (fear) comes later. 00:11:40 Reactions by others: accusations of panicking. 00:12:03 Convincing others to prepare? 00:12:28 People buy insurance for things that are less likely to happen. 00:14:43 NN Taleb’s Tweet on Paranoia: “When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done.” - Not everyone takes action on something so far away. 00:15:40 Balaji S. Srinivasan’s Three categories of people: “1) Post-headline people: only believe things that are already in print 2) No filter people: forget it, they’ll believe anything :) 3) Pre-headline people: will listen to a rational argument and look at primary data”. 00:17:05 Authority bias: Credentials, degrees, other people’s opinion. 00:18:10 Talking to family and friends about situation when there was still time to prepare. 00:18:40 Cassandra Myth (Iliad) 00:19:15 Uniform set of responses: you’re panicking and making it worse, dismissal 00:19:53 Bill Gates warned about pandemics long ago, but was dismissed as a college dropout and IT guy. (Confirmation bias, ad hominem attack) 00:21:09 Bill Gates: “The most predictable disaster in the history of the human race”. 00:21:20 Albert Camus: These things have a way of reocurring out of the blue sky. 00:21:50 Increased risk factors: base risk plus big cities, international travel. 00:22:03 On average, three pandemics a century. 00:22:21 Ebola outbreak was a close call. Hongkong Flu (1 million dead), late 1960s. Economic cost 00:23:14 Many animal to human transmissions were contained early by slaughtering millions of animals at the slightest sign of sickness. (Economical cost!) 00:23:53 Vaccines and public health system. (Smallpox) 00:25:47 We are still in the beginning of the economic impact. Common thinking errors and biases 00:26:45 Bias to focus on things that are caused by humans. Helplessness when confronted with pandemics. 00:27:37 Man-made virus from Wuhan lab? 00:28:19 Illegaly sold lab test animal at wet market? (野味 yewei, bush meat; 街市 jieshi, wet market) 00:30:08 Cognitive bias: systematic error of thinking. Man is the rationalizing animal. (Example: seeing faces in clouds) 00:31:31 Examples of observed biases: authority bias, confirmation bias, combinations of these. 00:32:25 Normalcy bias (nobody wants to be bothered to change routines). The Virus: An Abstract Threat, vs. Zombies 00:33:05 Max Brooks (World War Z): Fear of pandemics is so deep, cannot be discussed rationally. Zombies = Pandemic. 00:34:50 Virus is an abstract threat, there will be 1 trillion copies of it by infection. 00:35:14 Plague: people did not even know what caused infection. (Germ theory) 00:36:45 Are Zombie enthusiasts better prepared for a virus pandemic? 00:37:55 Trying to find out what’s going on fundamentally vs. latching onto experts. 00:38:48 Engaging brain about status vs. primary data. 00:39:30 People starting with the premise that they are not smart enough to understand what’s actually going on, not making any effort of their own. 00:40:40 Trying to understand incoming data, for example the first papers coming out of Wuhan. 00:42:05 Impossible to keep up with current findings, research, and papers. 00:42:40 More data globally, in the beginning filtering was easier. Problems with “Confirmed cases” 00:42:42 Mon, March 16th: currently 170.000 confirmed cases, 5000-6000 dead. 00:42:49 Confirmed cases != infections 00:43:17 Impossible to keep up with new cases. 00:44:00 “Confirmed case count"= comes with limitations (manpower, test kits). 00:44:55 Again, not enough test kits (USA, Berlin). Wuhan could test only 3000/day in the beginning. 00:45:20 “Confirmed cases"= lag in data. 00:46:35 “When people focus on these official measures… that are limited by staffing, test kits, by political considerations, then that’s not a good way… of understanding what’s going on.” 00:46:55 “That’s why it was so good to get this leaked information, leaked videos, from Wuhan. That way we got a sense of what was actually going on.” 00:47:30 The plural of anecdote is data. 00:47:41 Investigative Reporting. 00:48:00 Actions speak louder than data: Measures against the virus were severe. 1 Mio people in lockdown, 10% of global population. Mathematical Modelling 00:48:42 Mathematical Modelling… common problems: people cannot understand exponential function. people compare to flu last year. countermeasure lag: it takes time to show effect, politics make new changes 2 days apart, makes no sense. 00:51:12 Case fatality rate. World Health Organization (WHO) 00:51:22 Role of WHO: gives recommendations for guidelines, funding by member countries (China among them), driven by political considerations. 00:52:15 Public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC). 00:52:25 WHO got rid of the term “pandemic”. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) 00:53:25 “Naïve” Case Fatality Rate (CFR), released by WHO. First, 2.1% (mostly China); revised 3.5%, and going up. 00:55:20 SARS initial outbreak CRF ~2%, but by the end of the outbreak, it was ~6% (resolved CFR). 00:56:49 Makes no sense to compare past cases to current cases (open cases vs. resolved). 00:57:45 CFR for age groups: not taking into consideration system overload (needed care might not be provided). 00:59:22 CFR only says so much, 20% require hospitalization, many of those need ICU. 01:00:00 Hospitals in Italy are already overwhelmed, will worsen until end of the week. 01:00:40 Italy’s CFR is already higher than China’s. Secondary and Teritiary Effects 01:00:50 Cases overload the medical system, secondary effect: death rates go up. Patients with other diseases might not get medical help. Empty hospitals beds waiting for the next pandemic are unlikely. Economic impossibility, health care system already occupies significant percentage from GDP. Makeshift hospitals. 01:03:20 Investment options. Stock-market implosions. Crypto-market implosions. Flight to cash. 01:04:28 Supply chain problems. Goods coming from China. Food also comes from China. Just-in-time economy (supermarket have no more backrooms, but once or twice a day a truck delivery). Tesco is already limiting purchases like toilet paper. Respirators (EU: FFP2 & USA: N95, or FFP3 & N99): China restricted exports. Overreacting 01:08:15 “It’s always about efficieny, never about risk of failure.” 01:08:28 Pandemic response bears a similar problem like IT security. Overreaction with swine-flu might had been the reason it never got that bad, that’s why it was called an overreaction later. 01:09:23 “It’s a bit like prepping: no matter how bad it gets, you want to be overreacting in retrospect, otherwise, you didn’t prep enough. And, you’re not gonna hit exactly on target, so you wanna err on the side of overreaction.” 01:10:01 Control theory (robotics): accuracy vs. speed. Respirators and Masks 01:12:30 “You don’t have them [the respirators] until you have them in your hand” … “It’s like cash”. 01:13:10 Only stock up on masks if you intend to not avoid people. 01:14:23 Ukrainian border confiscated protective gear when trying to cross border to Poland (export is forbidden). 01:15:21 Idea that you don’t need respirators: “You don’t know how to properly use them!” “Doctors need them.” 01:15:50 Why didn’t hospitals stock up in January? True: Doctors need respirators more. 01:16:30 How can wearing a mask not help? If everyone wears a mask, that means every infected person wears a mask, and this decreases chances of transmission. (Hongkong) 01:17:25 “Wearing a respirator makes it less likely you’re getting infected yourself, … and wearing a surgical mask … helps not infecting other people, so it makes total sense that everyone wears at least surgical masks”. 01:18:40 Men’s issue: shaving gel and razors (beards and masks don’t go well together). Prepping 01:20:40 People tend to be dismissive of people with health problems, who might need medication or health care, and the elderly (“It kills only old people!"). 01:22:02 Ukrainian health care system is monopolized by state (surgeries, child birth, vaccine). “A public hospital is the last place I want to go [in the Ukraine]". 01:22:22 Contingency planning differs on country. 01:23:25 “The real carnage is going to be in third-world countries, just like it was in 1918”. (USA: 675.000 vs. India: 2 Million, Spanish Flu) 01:24:20 Lviv Infecitous Diseases Hospital messaged it would be well-prepared with 20 isolation beds (and plans to expand to 300), 4 ventilators, 0 ECMO, 10.000 surgical masks and respirators. Medical supplies 01:25:40 No difficulty to buy antibiotics in Ukraine, whereas in other countries it’s highly regulated (prescription vs. over the counter). 01:26:37 Chloroquine is promising in treatment of COVID-19 (malaria drug). 01:27:39 Paracetamol is not easy to buy in bulk. India also has restricted export (Indians source precursors from China, too). Location 01:28:40 Arto’s housing situation: countryside Western Ukraine, foothills of Carpathians. Frank: Berlin suburbs. Location cannot be changed later. Time is a constraint. Economy is going down. “If you wanna prep now, and you don’t already have a place to go… I don’t see why you should go there now”. Consider threat model: main risk for both is electricity going down. Social Distancing 01:32:51 Where do you stay put, and with whom? Acquire resources to stay put: food and drinking water, some personal protection for supply runs. Nitrile gloves Any mask will be useful, at least you won’t touch your face. Disinfectant: WHO guide how to make your own, primers might still be available. Goggles: Construction glasses or swim goggles. Scenario 01:36:30 Think about your scenario: staying inside apartment for a long time. food, water, protective gear what could go wrong- how do I deal with it? If electricty goes down: gasoline cooker, cheap carbohydrates (no freezer/ storage), pressure canning (no freezer, conserving meat). 01:40:30 Most likely scenario: you stay indoors, everything works (electricity, water, internet) first, get prepared for this scenario. 01:41:00 If electricity goes down for extended periods, water goes down. The big problem is not drinking water, but sanitation. Off-the-grid bucket loo with trash bags and wood shavings as absorbant, and wet wipes to clean. (BranQ portable toilet) 01:43:00 Water filter Micropur Forte Katadyn Filter Foodgrade Canisters for tap water and disinfect with Micropur Forte. 01:44:06 “I tried to focus on stuff that I normally eat anyway, … I just got a lot more, so it doesn’t go to waste. Other things like rice bags, I got as an insurance, but the rest I would eat anyway.” Threat model: Electricity, Water, Internet going down 01:44:50 Threat model and scenario. Social distancing might help burn the pandemic out. Viral shedding after recovery can be up to 37 days. Countries will handle situation differently. 01:47:10 “… if the situation gets particulary bad, which it might over here [in Ukraine] at least, I would expect some more outages, for the internet connectivity, there’s multiple options for that, so I expect at least one of them working.” 01:47:44 A lot of people getting sick means a lot of people not working, especially in grid systems workers might not be able to fix things in time. 01:48:24 “For the internet, we will see how well that works if everybody’s sitting at home watching netflix, or porn in full HD.” 01:48:59 Mobile internet. 01:49:17 Mitigate risk for short downtimes. 01:50:40 Wuhan pictures from people queuing for water. 01:51:11 Mitigate risk of having to go to the store a lot. not because of food shortages, but it’s a risk for virus exposure. 01:51:48 Going out for walks, just don’t meet anybody (countryside). avoid contact, don’t touch anything droplets in common areas that you pass on the way out (hallway, elevator). Prepping and timing 01:53:25 “Although I’m now pretty well prepared compared to most people, it kinda caught me cold-handed… because I was always interested in prepping, and I was always planning on prepping more for when SHTF, but I never really executed that much. But when I started six weeks ago, I realized how much harder… it was than I imagined, and also how much harder it was because… of such a short notice, and it was getting harder to get things, for example the respirators. It would have been so easy to stock up on all of this stuff. For example, the ridiculous situation that you had to ship me antibiotics from Ukraine although I was in Ukraine in January, I should have just bought all the prescription medicine a prepper needs.” 01:55:37 Early Infections in Italy, Seattle, etc. happened in January/Feburary. COVID-19 death in Spain 2 weeks before the first confirmed case there. (Lack of indicator) Food and Cans 01:56:56 Cheap carbohydrates, easy to store. (“Insurance”) Potatoes, rice, buckwheat. 01:57:10 Newly acquired freezer to stock up on meat. Canned meat as backup. Pressure Canning, if you have time, or already own a pressure canner. 01:58:15 Add variety, if you switch to carbohydrates. Canned veggies and canned fruit. Salt, Pepper, Spices. Deliveries 01:59:18 Deliveries still working. Disinfecting parcels. All delayed (surge of deliveries, momentarily overwhelmed). Fat 02:01:05 Freeze butter, or make Ghee. Olive oil might be adulterated with industry/ vegetable oils. Timescale 02:02:55 “Right now, people in the last week or two stopped laughing… and stopped repeating this mindless It’s Just The Flu, Bro… in any case, they’re still expecting this will be over soon. … And authorities are still telling them it will be over soon, prepare for a few weeks.” even emergency measures expire in about a month (bars and club are closed only until April, etc.) People stay at home close to 50 days. (Wuhan) China is looked upon as having “beaten the virus”. 02:04:57 “It’s always better if you’re dealing with a foreign virus, than with a domestic virus”. In Iran: Zionist conspiracy. “Virus doesn’t care!” 02:05:40 Once China resumes work, and life, there will be another wave. re-imports to China (from Italy for example) fully stopping virus is not so easy. virus will become endemic. multiple waves. Dystopian future vs. helpful tracking and tracing 02:07:26 Countries which deal well with it: outbreak, containment measures, a lot of testing, tracking, and contact tracing -> situation under control, problem: reintroduction from other countries. China is currently trying to automate contact tracing. Location tracking. Surveillance cameras with face recognition. Helpful scaling of tracking vs. dystopian nightmare. 02:10:10 The Virus can travel up to 4,5m, passenger infected others through a long-distance bus ride. video camera in bus. position of citizens is known at all times. re-engineering passenger’s travel was possible. 02:12:20 Controlling coming waves, keeping the country in lockdown is not a solution unless we transition to a permanentely remote economy. 02:12:30 Appeal from engineer perspective. Social Scoring system is already established. put people on specific quarantines if they were in contact with an infected person. government AI tells you if you should leave your apartment today, or get a test. scaling without the disruptions from now would be possible. 02:14:04 Germany outruled events with more than 50 people, but if you do an event with less people, you need to create a list of all attendees. (old school approach) pressure into direction of more surveillance. pushing ban on cash forward as well. China destroyed cash on basis of contamination questions. some chains in Germany went cashless because of the virus. Acceptance pipeline 02:16:39 “Acceptance pipeline”, dealing with grief: it won’t be over soon. 02:17:10 Pipe dream: Many place hope on vaccine development. vaccines are for healthy populations. vaccine is far away: more than 12 months, at least. might not be easy to develop (7 different coronaviruses, 15 years of development but currently no vaccine for either). not so effective: 20-60% for common flu vaccine. high mutation rate. 02:20:30 Accepting that there’s no easy fix. what are you going to do to plan for it? avoid infection as long as possible (6 months). look at vaccine development like a lottery win. by the time the vaccine is developed (18 months), whatever will happen has already happened. 02:23:12 It’s hard to plan to stay in apartment for 18 months. instead, plan for a world with Coronavirus, and a lot of lockdowns, and a lot of infections. Learning from past pandemics 02:23:35 Learn from past pandemics (1918 Spanish flu, 3 waves). 02:24:04 Spanish flu: passed through ships, first cases (first wave) very mild, less than influenza, less than COVID-19. Second wave, 5 months of carnage. Worse than COVID-19, at least currently. Third wave, somewhere in between. future waves might be more lethal. or become endemic, less lethal. it would be prudent to plan on a worst-case scenario where it takes a couple of years. “something worth paying attention to is going on.” Economic changes 02:27:50 Practical preparations for 6 months is difficult (economically). savings rates in Western countries are shit. people are out of jobs already (events cancelled, tourism breaks down). bankruptcy. no more fundraising tours. airlines discharge employees. 02:29:29 Good thing: remote work will be more accepted. Prepping List 02:30:00 Supply run gear for securing supplies goggles (and anti-fog spray), respirator (or surgical mask), rain poncho (or whole body protection suit), gloves (most important). 02:32:20 Surfaces: virus can be contangious on surfaces a few days (up to 9 days). Buttons, handrails, etc. (disposable gloves). 02:33:38 Coming from outside to inside. Shoes (rain boots can be easily disinfected). 02:34:10 Sourcing is already hard, will become more difficult. switching to local production. repurposing existing production facilities. 02:34:50 Power issues. solar panels, butane, propane, camping stove, space heaters on butane. fuel: gasoline, diesel, firewood. prepare for next winter. 02:36:00 Sanitation TP!!! plumber might not be available: be prepared to unplug it on your own. 02:37:05 Disinfectant Alcohol-based wet wipes since disinfectant is nearly everywhere sold out, switch to local production and DIY. 02:37:45 Medical The Prepared List/ Medical Broad-band Antibiotics: prevent secondary infections (pneumonia, 50-60% CFR). Doxycycline, Bactrim, Zithromax. India is restricting 26 medicines& pharmaceuticals, including paracetamol. China is restricting personal protective equipment (PPE) export since a month, maybe also medicine. If you take any prescription medicine, stock up for a few months at least. Stock up on painkillers (Ibuprofen and other non-steroids like aspirin, might be a risk factor for COVID-19). Prepare to treat yourself. 02:43:13 Pregnancies. Prepare for home birth. Access to healthcare resources will be restricted (Check-ups). Sourcing books. Remote consultation with midwives. Might be a common situation this year. 02:44:45 Chronic diseases and cancer patients. Might be unable to receive treatment. 02:46:34 Hygiene and Sanitary Items. Condoms. Tampons, Pads. can also be tradeables 02:47:05 Tradeables. see above, and: Alcohol. Cigarettes. Lighters. Wrap-up 02:48:05 Send us your questions! 02:48:32 Expert: Jon Stokes, ThePrepared.com. Founder of Ars Technica. 02:49:20 Book Recommendation: Barry, John M. (2004): The Great Influenza. The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History. Arto’s Twitter thread with quotes from the book 02:51:15 Book Recommendation: Hatfill, Steven; Coullahan, Robert; Walsh, John (2019): Three Seconds To Midnight. US-specific, but general sections are great. 02:51:50 “Bottom line here is: People underestimated this systematically. … Systemic error of thinking, they underestimated it, and they continue to underestimate it, even though they are no longer laughing, they continue to underestimate it. … This is something that has not happened in any of our lifetimes, there’s no listener who has seen anything that has been on the order of this, and it would be very good to get out of our normalcy bias.” recognizing a lethal situation as a lethal situation. go through the acceptance pipeline. err on the side of overreaction. it’s not about calculating the odds, we have no way to know which scenario will play out, so prepare for a few. it’s not just about us, it’s also about other people (keep granny around!), that also depends on your actions. Donation Report 02:55:11 Donation Report and Minimum Wage Calculation. Reading Recommendations Barry, John M. (2004): The Great Influenza. The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History. Goodreads Hatfill, Steven; Coullahan, Robert; Walsh, John (2019): Three Seconds To Midnight Goodreads Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2020): Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens - Coronavirus: A Note Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: How to react to Pandemics N.N. Taleb on paranoia Homer: Iliad (Cassandra Myth) Gates, Bill (2015): The most predictable disaster in the history of the human race Gates, Bill (2015): The next outbreak? We’re not ready. TED2015 Gates, Bill (2020): Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic? Bill Gates on pandemics Camus, Albert (1947): La Peste. (The Plague) Arto’s Coronavirus reading list Arto’s thread of The Great Influenza quotes Max Brooks’ quote of World War Z fame B.S. Srinivasan on post-headline people “Naïve” Case Fatality Rate (CFR) The Virus can travel up to 4,5m Centers, Josh: The Prepared List/ General Rader, Tom: The Prepared List/ Medical Desinfectant antiviral Handrub: WHO Guide to Local Production Discuss We’re on bbs.anarplex.net with our own board to discuss! Hosts Smuggler (Twitter) Frank Braun (Twitter) Guest Arto (Twitter) Contact Email: bitstream@taz0.org PGP fingerprint: 1C4A EFDB 8783 6614 C54D E230 2500 7933 D85F 2119 (key) Snail mail Bitstream Scanbox #06965 Ehrenbergstr. 16a 10245 Berlin Germany Please send us feedback letters, postcards, and interesting books. You can also send us your dirty fiat by cash in the mail! We take all currencies. 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Using maths to understand a hospital ICU: How many beds should a new hospital include for its intensive care unit? Not enough is bad for those who need the care. Too many is bad for the hospital, especially cost-wise.In this episode, we explore how maths can be used to explore the problem and others like it. It's also a fascinating example of how maths can reveal a lot about what's happening all around us! The Random Sample is a podcast by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers. In this show, we share stories about mathematics, statistics and the people involved. To learn more about ACEMS, visit https://acems.org.au.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today’s episode, we bring on Lisa Turner, a specialist in Human Transformation and Evolution. At the age of 15, she was abducted by a pedophile and held captive for 5 years! That didn’t stop Lisa from earning a Ph.D. in Mathematical Modelling and Aero-acoustics or from being a successful entrepreneur! Today we’re asking you, where are you a prisoner in your own life? We’re digging deep, and you must listen in to hear how Lisa launched her own technology to free her from her own past while empowering others to do the same. It was all smooth sailing, though! Lisa Turner has a new confession in this episode that revealed a layer of healing. If you’ve ever struggled with inner limitations, today’s episode is sure to provide some massive mindset shifts. ResourcesLisa Turner’s Gift – Discover Your Spiritual Leader PowerCentre (https://www.psycademy.co.uk/spiritual-leader-powercentre-e-book) The 12 GFR Commandments – download your own copy now (https://gfr.life/12c) (https://gfr.life/squad) – get started for just 20 Bucks!

Lisa White, Professor of Modelling and Epidemiology at our MORU unit in Thailand, tells us how we can use mathematical and economic modelling to better use limited resources to control or eradicate tropical diseases Mathematical modelling, particularly when combined with economical modelling, allows researchers and policy makers to determine the most effective interventions to fight infectious diseases such as malaria. We can use those models to explore ‘what ifs’ scenarios, at country or province level, save more lives and limit costs.

The Royal Meteorological Society just released the 9th climate science briefing paper on “Global Carbon Budgets”. Caroline Coch sits down with Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter to discuss the concept of carbon budgets, how they are calculated and what uncertainties exist. Read the paper in full here. The Society's Climate Science Communication Group have produced a series of Climate Science Briefing Papers with the aim to clearly and concisely explain important aspects of climate science. The briefing papers can be found here: https://www.rmets.org/publications/briefing-papers Our programmes are broad and diverse, with many activities accessible not only to members but also to the general public and the wider meteorological and climate community. For more information on our charitable activities and events visit www.rmets.org. Thank you for listening! Comments and ideas for future topics are always welcomed so please get in touch at jo.bayliss@rmets.org. Twitter - @rmets Instagram - @rmets_

The Royal Meteorological Society just released the 9th climate science briefing paper on “Global Carbon Budgets”. Caroline Coch sits down with Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter to discuss the concept of carbon budgets, how they are calculated and what uncertainties exist. Read the paper in full here. The Society's Climate Science Communication Group have produced a series of Climate Science Briefing Papers with the aim to clearly and concisely explain important aspects of climate science. The briefing papers can be found here: https://www.rmets.org/publications/briefing-papers Our programmes are broad and diverse, with many activities accessible not only to members but also to the general public and the wider meteorological and climate community. For more information on our charitable activities and events visit www.rmets.org. Thank you for listening! Comments and ideas for future topics are always welcomed so please get in touch at jo.bayliss@rmets.org. Twitter - @rmets Instagram - @rmets_

The human brain is the object of the ultimate intellectual egocentrism. It is also a source of endless scientific problems and an organ of such complexity that it is not clear that a mathematical approach is even possible, despite many attempts. In this talk Alain will use the brain to showcase how applied mathematics thrives on such challenges. Through mathematical modelling, we will see how we can gain insight into how the brain acquires its convoluted shape and what happens during trauma. We will also consider the dramatic but fascinating progression of neuro-degenerative diseases, and, eventually, hope to learn a bit about who we are before it is too late. Alain Goriely is Professor of Mathematical Modelling, University of Oxford and author of 'Applied Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction.'

Dr Lindqvist talks to ecancertv at the PI3K-Like Protein Kinases meeting about how mathematical modelling can be used in cancer therapy.

Professor Ben Cooper from MORU in Thailand uses mathematical modelling and statistical techniques to help understand the dynamics of infectious disease and evaluate potential control measures. Antibiotic resistance is one of today's major global health problems. Mathematical models help us answer what if questions and evaluate the impact of specific interventions such as hands hygiene on the spread of bacterial drug resistance. Effective solutions are then translated into policy changes or changes in practice at national or international level.

Dr Richard Maude's work combines clinical studies, descriptive epidemiology and mathematical modelling of malaria in South and Southeast Asia. Malaria epidemiology focuses on two main challenges to malaria elimination: antimalarial drug resistance and the movement of people that are spreading the malaria parasite. Travel surveys and cellphone records, combined with population parasite genetics help predict the spread of malaria and of drug resistance. Close coordination with all groups and agencies involved is crucial to malaria surveillance and elimination strategies.

Dr Richard Maude's work combines clinical studies, descriptive epidemiology and mathematical modelling of malaria in South and Southeast Asia. Malaria epidemiology focuses on two main challenges to malaria elimination: antimalarial drug resistance and the movement of people that are spreading the malaria parasite. Travel surveys and cellphone records, combined with population parasite genetics help predict the spread of malaria and of drug resistance. Close coordination with all groups and agencies involved is crucial to malaria surveillance and elimination strategies.

Professor Ben Cooper from MORU in Thailand uses mathematical modelling and statistical techniques to help understand the dynamics of infectious disease and evaluate potential control measures. Antibiotic resistance is one of today's major global health problems. Mathematical models help us answer what if questions and evaluate the impact of specific interventions such as hands hygiene on the spread of bacterial drug resistance. Effective solutions are then translated into policy changes or changes in practice at national or international level.

Jeffrey W Eaton discusses the value of mathematical modelling for HIV epidemic projections

Romulus Breban discusses how mathematical modelling can estimate the effect of preventive and treatment interventions for hepatitis C in Egypt.

Getriebe sind mechanische Komponenten, die oft zwischen Motoren und anzutreibenden Maschinenteilen zum Einsatz kommen, und übersetzen Drehmomente und Drehzahlen. Für einen Anwendungsfall gibt es aber viele einsetzbare Getriebe mit vielen weiteren Eigenschaften, wie Wirkungsgrad, Geräuschentwicklung, Größe, Gewicht und vieles mehr. Jonathan Fröhlich hat hier die Frage betrachtet, wie man bei der Auswahl des Getriebes vorgehen kann, und erklärt im Gespräch mit Gudrun Thäter, wie hier der Analytic Hierarchy Process den Entscheidungsprozess durch die Berechnung von Eigenwerten und Eigenvektoren unterstützen kann. Literatur und Zusatzinformationen R.W. Saaty: The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used, Mathematical Modelling, Volume 9, Issues 3–5, 161-176, 1987. D. Gastes: Erhebungsprozesse und Konsistenzanforderungen im Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Dissertation am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), 2011. W. Steinhilper, B. Sauer: Konstruktionselemente des Maschinenbaus 2, Springer, 2012. Der Maschinenraum-Podcast zu vielen weiteren Fragen im Maschinenbau.

O'Dea, R (University of Nottingham) Tuesday 24 June 2014, 14:10-14:35

Jörg Bäuerle hat ein Verfahren zur verbesserten Erdölsuche erforscht, das passiv die elektromagnetische Ausstrahlung von Erdölfeldern auswerten kann. Wie im Gespräch mit Sebastian Ritterbusch zu hören, steckt darin viel Mathematik, Freude über L-Kurven und nicht nur ein inverses Problem. Literatur und Zusatzinformationen Poster von J. Bäuerle, A. Helfrich-Schkarbanenko, A. Sommer: Passive Erdölexploration aus der Luft, Young Investigator Network - Day, Karlsruhe, Oktober, 2013. A. Helfrich-Schkarbanenko: Elektrische Impedanztomografie in der Geoelektrik, Dissertation am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, 2011. M. Hanke: Mathematische Grundlagen der Impedanztomographie, Skriptum, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, 2004. W. R. B. Lionheart: EIT reconstruction algorithms: pitfalls, challenges and recent developments, arXiv preprint physics/0310151, 2003. P. C. Hansen: The L-curve and its use in the numerical treatment of inverse problems, IMM, Department of Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, 1999.

On Start the Week Lisa Jardine discusses how complex maths has broken free of the laboratory and now influences every aspect of our lives. James Owen Weatherall applauds the take-over of the financial world by physicists, Marcus du Sautoy revels in the numbers and Kenneth Cukier explores how big data will change everything from disease control to bargain buys. But the cultural commentator Tiffany Jenkins sounds a note of caution about a world where everything is measurable.Producer: Katy Hickman.

Slides from the talk 'An Introduction to Mathematical Modelling in Biology' given by Dov Stekel to the knowledge transfer series on Wednesday 19th October. The talk covers a brief history and introduction to mathematical modelling in the biosciences. The talk is aimed at a general (non-specialist) audience.

Talk given by Dov Stekel to the knowledge transfer series on Wednesday 19th October. The talk covers a brief history and introduction to mathematical modelling in the biosciences. The talk is aimed at a general (non-specialist) audience.

Despite the well-publicised success of global smallpox eradication, 'zero' remains an elusive goal for the majority of vaccine-preventable diseases, making reduced pathogen circulation, or direct protection of the vulnerable more achievable strategies. We will consider potential deleterious consequences of reduced infection transmission, in the context of diseases such as influenza and pertussis, where immunity following natural exposure may be superior to that following immunisation. Implications for vaccine design and implementation will be discussed. This seminar was delivered by Dr Jodie McVernon: Programme Leader, Mathematical Modelling. Deputy Head, Vaccine and Immunisation Research Group, Melbourne School of Population Health, Australia.

An introduction to mathematical modelling in the real world.

Transcript -- An introduction to mathematical modelling in the real world.

An introduction to mathematical modelling in the real world.

Transcript -- An introduction to mathematical modelling in the real world.

The role of mathematical modelling in gliding, focusing on The British Overseas Nationals, a modern racing competition held in Le Blanc, France.

Transcript -- The role of mathematical modelling in gliding, focusing on The British Overseas Nationals, a modern racing competition held in Le Blanc, France.

The role of mathematical modelling in gliding, focusing on The British Overseas Nationals, a modern racing competition held in Le Blanc, France.

Transcript -- The role of mathematical modelling in gliding, focusing on The British Overseas Nationals, a modern racing competition held in Le Blanc, France.