BCA Quick Takes Podcast

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about the outlook for cross-strait tensions and US-China relations following the recent election in Taiwan. 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the outlook for the US dollar. What are the forces that have recently been driving the dollar lower? Will expensive valuations dampen the dollar's ability to strengthen in the event of a recession? And what are the conditions that are needed for carry trades to perform well going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Bond Strategist Ryan Swift about the outlook for the Treasury market. What is the labor market data signaling about the near-term outlook for bond yields? Are the 2024 rate cut expectations priced into bond markets reasonable? And what is the role of the supply of Treasury securities versus the role of macroeconomic conditions as a driver of bond yields?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategist Rajeeb Pramanik about the Indian economy's role in the global economy. How has India performed in terms of its contribution to overall global GDP growth and its contribution to the rest of the world's GDP growth? Based on these results, can India replace China as a driver of global growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief European Investment Strategist Mathieu Savary about the outlook for the Eurozone economy and risk assets. What is the data signaling about growth conditions and the prospect of a stabilization? What are the implications for ECB policy? And is there scope for the euro to strengthen over the near term?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist Bob Ryan about the outlook for oil markets amid elevated geopolitical risks. How is Bob accounting for the potential impact of these risks? At what price level does demand destruction become a concern? And can prices rise in a scenario in which the economy is in recession?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about the implications of the crisis in the Middle East on financial markets. Will the conflict broaden? What will be the impact on Saudi-Israeli negotiations to form a security pact? And what are the implications for oil markets and the US elections?  

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist Garry Evans about the outlook for global financial markets. What will it take for the correlation between stock prices and bond yields to flip back to positive? Which equity sectors are worth overweighting within global equity portfolios? And which global financial assets are currently attractive upside hedges in case the global economy remains more resilient than anticipated?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan about EM equity dynamics. What are the key drivers of the EM equity index? Do the relatively cheaper valuations make a compelling case for EM stocks? And will the pivot to interest rate cuts boost economic conditions in EM economies?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Fixed Income strategist Rob Robis about the outcome of recent DM central bank meetings and the outlook for global monetary policy. What are the key takeaways from the big three central banks? Will government bond yields climb higher? And which central banks will lead the pivot to easing monetary policy?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Bond strategist Ryan Swift about inflation dynamics and monetary policy following the August US CPI release. Is the disinflation trend intact? What inflation indicators should investors watch most closely? Are energy prices a risk to disinflation? And how will these dynamics play into Fed policy going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Investment strategist Doug Peta about the state of the US economy and implications for US stocks. What is the signal from the latest round of US economic data? Why is a neutral equity allocation now appropriate? And what will it take to change the equity allocation to either underweight or overweight? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Political Strategist Matt Gertken about the implications of the US election cycle on financial markets. What is the geopolitical method and how does it apply to US elections? Are primary elections relevant to investors? And how do stocks perform in election years?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel about the implications of the AI boom on US equities. Is there scope for semi-stocks to rally further? Will growth stocks outperform value stocks? And will Nvidia's results catalyze another upleg for the S&P 500?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist about global oil supply and demand fundamentals. Are Russian supply risks adequately priced into oil markets? Would Saudi Arabia raise output in the event of a Russian oil supply shock? And what is the outlook for EM oil demand growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the outlook for G10 currencies amid greater data dependency across central banks. What is the likely direction of EUR/USD? In the absence of forward guidance from central banks, what will be the key drivers that will determine the winners and losers in the G10 FX space? And will the BoJ's YCC tweak be enough to boost the yen's prospects?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about his take on the outcome of the Politburo meeting. Are the measures that were announced sufficient to boost the Chinese economy? Will the property market improve over the coming months? And what is holding policymakers back from easing policy more meaningfully? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Counterpoint strategist Dhaval Joshi about his recession outlook. Why should investors focus on the timing of the next global recession? What is the evidence that the global recession has already started? Does the strong year-to-date performance of global equities contradict the thesis that the global economy is in recession? And will policymakers shift their focus towards measures to reignite economic growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Bond strategist Ryan Swift about inflation dynamics and monetary policy following the June US CPI release. Will the inflation downtrend continue? How many more rate hikes are in the pipeline? And what are the sources of upside and downside pressure on Treasury yields going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief European Investment strategist Mathieu Savary about the European growth outlook. Will economic weakness spill into H2? What are the likely tailwinds to growth over the remainder of the year? Will weak manufacturing remain a drag on growth? And how long will the sequential growth improvement last and how strong will it be?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Investment strategist Doug Peta about the year-to-date performance of US equities. What are the factors that contributed to this rally? Should investors start taking some chips off the table? And can IT stocks continue to decouple from Treasury yields?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Fixed Income strategist Rob Robis about recent global monetary policy decisions and their implication for global bond markets. Will the Fed deliver another 50 bps of rate hikes? How much longer can the ECB continue to tighten policy? And do the latest BoC and RBA rate hikes suggest that there is scope for other global central banks to deliver hawkish surprises going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Private Markets & Alternatives strategist Brian Payne about the new BCA service. What makes BCA's Private Markets & Alternatives service unique? How does the service combine its macroeconomic outlook with a bottom-up analysis to assess the outlook for the various asset classes within PMA? And what are the forces that are contributing to a relatively appealing backdrop for Private Credit? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Emerging Markets and China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about the recent performance of Chinese financial markets. What is behind this weakness in Chinese assets? What is the likelihood that policymakers will attempt to boost growth conditions by unleashing irrigation-style stimulus? Is the bad news already priced in Chinese assets and China plays?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist Peter Berezin about the implications of AI on the economy and financial markets. How long will it take for the economic impact to be felt? How will it affect the labor market? And will tech stocks be the primary beneficiary of the AI revolution? For a longer discussion of the safety risks around AI, check out Peter's Twitter account.

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel about her takeaways from the Q1 earnings season. Why haven't investors rewarded positive earnings surprises as much as they typically do? How is the current macro environment impacting corporate profitability? And when will the profit recession end?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Political Strategist Matt Gertken about the forces driving the US debt ceiling standoff. What concessions are Democrats most likely to agree to? What would happen if Congress fails to achieve a deal to raise the debt limit before the “X-date”? And what are the fiscal and financial market implications?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to Chief Strategist of BCA Research's Counterpoint service Dhaval Joshi about his take on Fed policy. Why haven't long-term inflation expectations broken out? What are the lessons from the Fed's attempts to slay inflation in the 1970s and 1980s? And what are some of the most mispriced financial market assets?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the implications of de-dollarization. Will the de-dollarization trend have an imminent impact on currency markets? Which assets will benefit most from the de-dollarization trend? And given that the greenback is a momentum currency, is the dollar likely to decline further over the coming months?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research US Bond Strategist Ryan Swift about the economic forces driving Fed policy. Is the disinflation process progressing? What will be the impact of last month's bank turmoil on Fed policy? And what will it take for the Fed to cut interest rates in H2?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist Bob Ryan about the oil market outlook following the recent OPEC+ announcement of further production cuts. What is the reason behind the group's surprise decision to cut output? Will US shale producers step in to fill the output gap? And will the cuts cause oil market fundamentals to tighten and push up oil prices on a durable basis?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research Strategist Juan Correa about recent trends in cryptocurrencies and the longer-term outlook. Will the tight correlation between the price of bitcoin and equities continue going forward? What would be the impact of the collapse of another cryptocurrency exchange? And how will greater regulatory scrutiny affect the crypto market and industry?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Investment Strategist Doug Peta about the implications of bank sector stress on the outlook for the US economy and Fed policy. Will the turmoil bring forward the beginning of the next US recession? Is a blanket insurance for bank deposits a prerequisite for stemming the deposit outflow from community and regional banks and restoring financial stability? What will be the impact of bank turmoil on Fed policy in 2023?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Investment Strategist Irene Tunkel about the banking tumult. What is behind the crisis? What will be the main drivers of bank stocks going forward? And how will the banking turmoil play out for US equities more broadly?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about his initial takeaways following the opening of China's National People's Congress. Do the economic targets foreshadow disappointing economic growth this year? Is China prioritizing security over advancing its economy? And what are the policy implications of the leadership reshuffle?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's European Investment Strategist Mathieu Savary about the implications of persistent inflationary pressures in the Eurozone on ECB policy, the economy and equities. Why is core CPI inflation still accelerating in the Euro Area? Are further significant ECB hikes warranted? And is the restrictive policy stance a risk to the outperformance of Euro Area equities?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's US Bond Strategist Ryan Swift about US inflation and the monetary policy outlook. Is the disinflation process stalling? What are the implications for Fed policy this year? And is the Fed likely to respond to the easing of financial conditions that has occurred over the past few months?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist Rob Robis about the global monetary policy outlook. Are we likely to see greater policy divergence across economies this year? Does the recent resilience of economic data suggest that policymakers will have to stay hawkish for longer? And will the BoJ shift to a less accommodative policy stance?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist Bob Ryan about supply and demand dynamics facing global oil markets. What will be the impact of the EU ban on Russian refined oil products? Why has the oil price response to China's reopening been relatively muted? And will the OPEC+ coalition raise its production targets in 2023?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin about the housing market outlook. How severe will the US housing downturn be? What are the implications for the broader US economy? And how vulnerable are foreign housing markets?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the dollar's recent depreciation. What is driving this weakness? Has the greenback peaked? And what should investors be watching at next week's Fed and ECB meetings to guide the dollar outlook?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Emerging Markets and China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about China's population decline. Why does it matter for investors? What policy options are available for Beijing to try to arrest the downtrend? And what are the implications for the economic policy outlook?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to Jonathan LaBerge, Vice President of BCA Research's Bank Credit Analyst service, about the outlook for the economy and financial markets in 2023. Will the US economy succumb to recession? How severe is the next recession likely to be? And how should global investors position themselves in 2023?    

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Emerging Markets and China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about his outlook for the Chinese economy and equities. Will Beijing abandon the zero-Covid policy? Will a relaxation of pandemic restrictions lead to a meaningful economic recovery? What are the implications of a struggling property sector on Chinese bank stocks? And do cheap valuations present a good opportunity for investors to increase exposure to Chinese equities?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel about long-term opportunities in the US equity market.

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief US Investment Strategist Doug Peta about his outlook for the US economy and stock market. Will US consumption hold up? What are the implications for corporate earnings? And is there scope for US equities to rally over the coming months?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken about the results of the US midterm election. What are the implications for domestic and foreign policy? Is gridlock positive for financial markets? And what are the implications for the 2024 presidential election?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken about his takeaways following China's twentieth national party congress as well as his expectations for the US midterm election. What are Beijing's priorities going forward? What are the implications of the composition of China's new Politburo? Will authorities relax the “dynamic zero-Covid policy?” And will US Republicans win Congress or just the House?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief European Investment Strategist Mathieu Savary about the outlook for the ECB following its jumbo rate hike on October 27.  Can the ECB maintain the brisk pace of tightening? When will it kick off QT? What will it take to activate the TPI? And importantly, what are the implications for the euro, financials, and Eurozone bond markets? 

Inflation remains stubbornly elevated. How will it evolve going forward? What will the Fed response be? What are the implications for US bond markets? Ryan Swift, BCA Research's US Bond strategist, provides his analysis after the CPI report release in October.