Podcasts about Alternatives

Delanie Fischer chats with Arielle Loupos, founder of Flower Girl, for a revealing look at the hidden toxins in mainstream menstrual products and their impact, the history of “feminine hygiene” marketing, and the safe alternatives everyone should know about. They explore cycle stigma, period traditions, and why rethinking our everyday products is essential for our health. Please share this with the females in your life. ✨ This episode is part of the Self-Helpless “Subscriber Stories” series! Got a story, resource, or experience that could help others? Email selfhelplesspodcast@gmail.com to be considered as a guest. Discussed in this episode:  2024 Menstrual Products Study Results How The Industrial Revolution Changed Periods Ancient Traditions for Celebrating Cycles Is The Free Bleed Movement The Future? Toxic Shock Syndrome Causes and Risks Tampons, Pads, Cups, Period Underwear Cramps and Infertility Questions Postpartum, Perimenopause, and Leaks Cycle Syncing Tips in the Workplace Ending Period Stigma (and Starting Young) ---- If Self-Helpless has supported you, a quick 5-star rating or review (if you haven't already) means so much! ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/self-helpless/id1251196416⁠ Free goodies including The Quote Buffet and The Watch & Read List: ⁠https://www.selfhelplesspodcast.com/⁠ Ad-free episodes now available on ⁠Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/selfhelpless⁠ Your Host, Delanie Fischer:⁠ https://www.delaniefischer.com⁠ ---- Episodes related to this topic: 20 Documentaries To Watch This Year: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/2542cab6/self-helpless-snack-whats-your-favorite-documentary-20-documentaries-to-watch-this-year Hormone Imbalances and Your Menstrual Cycle with Dr. Jolene Brighten: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/c4a75fbe/hormone-imbalances-and-your-menstrual-cycle-with-dr-jolene-brighten UTIs, Interstitial Cystitis, and Pelvic Floor Dysfunction with Dr. Rena Malik: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/1c573a89/utis-interstitial-cystitis-and-pelvic-floor-dysfunction-with-dr-rena-malik Flip the Script on Aging: Strength, Vitality, and Purpose with 74 Year-Old Icon Babette Davis: ⁠https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/23c49ad2/flip-the-script-on-aging-strength-vitality-and-purpose-with-74-year-old-icon-babette-davis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Concluding a two-part roundtable discussion, our global heads of Research, Thematic Research and Firmwide AI focus on the human impacts of AI adoption in the workplace.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts in The Market, and to part two of our conversation on AI adoption. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research. Once again, I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI. Today, let's focus on the human level. What this paradigm shift means for individual workers. It's Wednesday, November 5th at 10am in New York. Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, there's a lot of simultaneous fear and excitement around widespread AI adoption. There's obviously concern that AI could lead to massive job losses. But you seem optimistic about this paradigm shift. Why is that? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, as I mentioned in part one, this is the most popular discussion topic with my children. And I would say younger folks are quite concerned about this. There's a lot of angst among young folks thinking about what is that job market really going to look like for them. And admittedly, AI could be quite disruptive. So, we don't want to sugarcoat that. There's clearly going to be impacts across many jobs. Our work showed that around 90 percent of jobs will be impacted in some way. Oh, in the long term, I would guess nearly every job will be impacted in some way. The reason we are more optimistic is that what we see is a range of what we would think of as augmentation, where AI can essentially help you do something much better. It can help you expand your capabilities. And it will result in entirely new jobs. Now with any new technology, it's always hard to predict exactly what those new jobs are. But examples that I see in my world of energy would be smart grid analysis, predictive maintenance, managing systems in a much more efficient way. Systems that are so complicated that they're really beyond the capability of humans to manage very effectively. So, I'm quite excited there. I'm extremely excited in the life sciences where we could see entire new approaches to curing some of the worst diseases plaguing humankind. So, I am really very excited in terms of those new areas of job creation. In terms of job losses, one interesting analysis that a lot of investors are really focused on that we included in our Future of Work report was the ratio – within a job – of augmentation to automation. The lower the ratio, the higher the risk of job loss in the sense that that shows a sign that more of what AI is going to do, is going to replace that type of human work. Examples of that would be in professional services. As I mentioned, you know, one of my former professions, law would be an example of an area where you could see this. But essentially, tasks that don't require a lot of proprietary data, require less creativity. Those are the types of tasks that are more likely to be automated. Kathryn Huberty: One theme I hear both in Silicon Valley and in our industry is the value of domain expertise goes up. So, the lawyer that's very good in the courtroom or handling a really complicated situation because they have decades of experience, the value of that labor and talent goes up. And so, when my friends ask me what their kids should pursue in school and as a career, I tell them it's less about what job they pursue. Pick a passion and become a domain expert really quickly. Stephen Byrd: I think that's excellent advice. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, how do you see AI changing the skills we'll need at Morgan Stanley and the way that people should think about their careers? Jeff McMillan: I think you have to break this down into three pieces – and Stephen sort of alluded to it. One, you have to look at the jobs that are likely to disappear. Two, you have to look at the jobs that are going to change. And then finally, you have to look at the new jobs that are going to actually emerge from this phenomena. You should be thinking right now about how you are going to prepare yourself with the right skills around learning how to prompt and learning how to move into those functions that are not going to be eliminated. In terms of jobs that are changing, they're going to require a far, far greater sense of collaboration, creativity. And again, prompting; prompt engineering is sort of the center of that. And I would highly encourage every single person who's listening to this to become the single best prompt engineer in their group, in their friend[s group], in their organization. And then in terms of the jobs that are being created, I'm actually pretty optimistic here. As we build agents, there's actually a bull case that we're going to create so much complexity in our environment that we're going to need more people to help manage that. But the skills are not going to be repetitive linear skills. They're going to require real time decision-making, leadership skills, collaboration skills. But again, I would go back to every single person: learn how to talk to the machine, learn how to be creative, and practice every day your engagement with this technology. Kathryn Huberty: So then how are companies balancing the re-skilling with the inevitable culture shifts that come with any new paradigm? Jeff McMillan: So, first of all, I think if you think about this as a tool, you've already lost the plot. I think that number one, you have to remind yourself what your strategy is; whatever that strategy is, this is an enabler of your strategy. The second point I'd make is that you have to go from both – the top down, in terms of leadership messaging that this change is here, it's important and it needs to be embraced. And then it's a bottoms-up because you have to empower people with the right tools and the technology to transform their own work. Because if you're trying to tell people that this is the path that they have to follow. You don't get the buy-in that you need. You really want to empower people to leverage these tools. And what excites me most is when people walk into my office and say, ‘Hey Jeff, let me show you what I built today.' And it could be some 22-year-old who; it's their first month on the job. And what's exciting about this technology is you do not need a technology background. You need to be smart; you need to be creative. And if you've got those skills, you can build things that are really innovative. And I think that's what's exciting. So, if you can combine the top down that this is important and the bottoms up with giving people the skills and the technology and the motivation – that's the secret sauce. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, what's your advice for the next generation college students, recent college graduates as they're thinking about navigating the early parts of their career in this environment? Jeff McMillan: Well, Katy, I first of all, I'd agree with what you say. You know, everyone's like, ‘What should I study?' And the answer is – I don't actually know the answer to that question. But I would study what you care about. I would do something that you're passionate about. And the second point, and I hate to be a broken record on this. But I would be the single best user of GenerativeAI at your college. Volunteer with some nonprofit, build a use case with your friends. When you walk into your first job, impress in your interview that you are able to use this technology in really effective ways – because that will make a difference, in your first job. Kathryn Huberty: And I'm curious, are there areas where you think humans will always beat AI, whether it's in financial services or other industries? Jeff McMillan: I like to think that we are human and that gives us the ability to build trust and emotional relationships. And I think not only are we going to be better at that than machines are. But I think that's something that we as humans will always want. I think that there may be some individuals in the society that may feel differently. But I think as a general rule, the human-to-human relationship is something that's really important. And I like to think that it will be a differentiator for a long time to come. So, Katy, from where you sit as the Head of Global Research, how has GenAI changed the way research is being done? Kathryn Huberty: With the help of your team, Jeff, we have now embedded AI through the life cycle of investigating a hypothesis, doing the analysis, writing the research in a concise, effective way. Pushing that through our publishing process, developing digital content in our analysts' voice, in the local language of the client. And now we're working on a client engagement tool that helps direct our research team's time. And so, the impact here is it reduces the time to market to get a alpha generating idea to our clients and, you know, and it's freeing up time for our teams. Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to build on that. Productivity is a big theme. And away from the research itself, from a management perspective, how are you and your team using AI? And what do you see as the benefits? And how are you spending the extra time that's freed up by AI? Kathryn Huberty: I like to say that the research AI strategy is less about the tools. I mean, those are critical and foundational. But it's more about how we're evolving workflow and how our teams are spending time. And so, the savings are being reinvested in actually your area – thematic research – which takes a lot more coordination, collaboration. A global cross-asset view, which just takes more time to develop, and test a hypothesis, and debate internally, and get those reports to market. But it's critical for our core strategy, which is to help our clients generate alpha. When you look at equity markets over the past 30 years, a very small number of stocks drive all of the alpha. And they tend to link to themes. And so, we're reinvesting time in identifying those themes earlier than the market to allow our clients to capture that alpha. And then the other piece is when we look at our analyst teams, they spend about a quarter of their time with clients because they have to meet with experts in the industry. They need to do the analysis, they have to build the financial forecast, manage their teams. You know, we have internal activities, build culture. And with the ability to leverage these tools to speed up some of those tasks, we think we can double the amount of time that our analysts are spending with clients. And if we're putting thought-provoking, you know, often thematic global collaborative content into the market, our clients want to spend more time with us. And so, that's the ultimate impact. On a personal level, and I think both of you can relate. I think a lot of the freed-up time right now is just following the fast pace of change in AI and keeping up with the latest technology, the latest vendors. But long term, my hope is that this frees up time for more human activities on a personal level. Learning the arts, staying active. So, this could be potentially very beneficial to society if we reinvest that time in both productive activities that have impact in business. But also productive, rewarding activities outside of the office.As we wrap up, it's clear that the influence of AI is expanding rapidly, not just in digital- and knowledge-based sectors, but increasingly in tangible real-world applications. As these innovations unfold, the way we interact with both technology and our environments will continue to evolve – both on the job and elsewhere in our lives. Jeff, Stephen, thank you both for sharing your insights. And to our listeners, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend and colleague today.

In the first of a two-part roundtable discussion, our Global Head of Research joins our Global Head of Thematic Research and Head of Firmwide AI to discuss how the economic and labor impacts of AI adoption.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research, and I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.Today and tomorrow, we have a special two-part episode on the number one question everyone is asking us: What does the future of work look like as we scale AI?It's Tuesday, November 4th at 10am in New York.I wanted to talk to you both because Stephen, your groundbreaking work provides a foundation for thinking through labor and economic impacts of implementing AI across industries. And Jeff, you're leading Morgan Stanley's efforts to implement AI across our more than 80,000 employee firm, requiring critical change management to unlock the full value of this technology.Let's start big picture and look at this from the industry level. And then tomorrow we'll dig into how AI is changing the nature of work for individuals.Stephen, one of the big questions in the news – and from investors – is the size of AI adoption opportunity in terms of earnings potential for S&P 500 companies and the economy as a whole. What's the headline takeaway from your analysis?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is the most popular topic with my children when we talk about the work that I do. And the impacts are so broad. So, let's start with the headline numbers. We did a deep dive into the S&P 500 in terms of AI adoption benefits. The net benefits based on where the technology is now, would be about little over $900 billion. And that can translate to well over 20 percent increased earnings power that could generate over $13 trillion of market cap upon adoption. And importantly, that's where the technology is now.So, what's so interesting to me is the technology is evolving very, very quickly. We've been writing a lot about the nonlinear rate of improvement of AI. And what's especially exciting right now is a number of the big American labs, the well-known companies developing these LLMs, are now gathering about 10 times the computational power to train their next model. If scaling laws hold that would result in models that are about twice as capable as they are today. So, I think 2026 is going to be a big year in terms of thinking about where we're headed in terms of adoption. So, it's frankly challenging to basically take a snapshot because the picture is moving so quickly.Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, you referenced just the fast pace of change and the daily news flow. What's the view of the timeline here? Are we measuring progress at the industry level in months, in years?Stephen Byrd: It's definitely in years. It's fast and slow. Slow in the sense that, you know, it's taken some companies a little while now and some over a year to really prepare. But now what we're seeing in our CIO survey is many companies are now moving into the first, I'd say, full fledged adoption of AI, when you can start to really see this in numbers.So, it sort of starts with a trickle, but then in 2026, it really turns into something much, much bigger. And then I go back to this point about non-linear improvement. So, what looks like, areas where AI cannot perform a task six months from now will look very different. And I think – I'm a former lawyer myself. In the field of law, for example, this has changed so quickly as to what AI can actually do. So, what I expect is it starts slow and then suddenly we look at a wide variety of tasks and AI is fairly suddenly able to do a lot more than we expect.Kathryn Huberty: Which industries are likely to be most impacted by the shift? And when you broke down the analysis to the industry and job level, what were some of the surprises?Stephen Byrd: I thought what we would see would be fairly high-tech oriented sectors – and including our own – would be top of the list. What I found was very different. So, think instead of sectors where there's fairly low profit per employee, often low margin businesses, very labor-intensive businesses. A number of areas in healthcare staples came to the top. A few real estate management businesses. So, very different than I expected.The very high-tech sectors actually had some of the lowest numbers, simply because those companies in high-tech tend to have extremely high profit per employee. So, the impact is a lot less. So that was surprising learning. A lot of clients have been digging into that.Kathryn Huberty: I could see why that would've surprised you. But let's focus on banking for a moment since we have the expert here. Jeff, what are some of the most exciting AI use cases in banking right now?Jeff McMillan: You know, I would start with software development, which was probably the first Gen AI use case out of the gate. And not only was it first, but it continues to be the most rapidly advancing. And that's probably; mostly a function of the software, you know, development community. I mean, these are developers that are constantly fiddling and making the technology better.But productivity continues to advance at a linear pace. You know, we have over 20,000 folks here at Morgan Stanley. That's 25 percent of our population. And, you know, the impact both in terms of the size of that population and the efficiencies are really, really significant.So, I would start there. And then, you know, once you start moving past that, it may not seem, you know, sexy. It's really powerful around things like document processing. Financial services firms move massive amounts of paper. We take paper in, whether it be an account opening, whether it be a contract. Somebody reads that information, they reason about it, and then they type that information into a system. AI is really purpose built for that.And then finally, just document generation. I mean, the number of presentations, portfolio reviews, you know, even in your world, Katy, research reports that we create. Once again, AI is really just – it's right down the middle in terms of its ability to generate just content and help people reduce the time and effort to do that.Kathryn Huberty: There's a lot of excitement around AI, but as Stephen mentioned, it's not a linear path. What are the biggest challenges, Jeff, to AI adoption for a big global enterprise like Morgan Stanley? What keeps you up at night?Jeff McMillan: I've often made the analogy that we own a Ferrari and we're driving around circles in a parking lot. And what I mean by that is that the technology has so far advanced beyond our own capacity to leverage it. And the biggest issue is – it's our own capacity and awareness and education.So, what keeps me up at night? it's the firm's understanding. It's each person's and each leader's ability to understand what this technology can do. Candidly, it's the basics of prompting. We spend a lot of time here at the firm just teaching people how to prompt, understanding how to speak to the machine because until you know how to do that, you don't really understand the art of the possible. I tell people, if you have $100 to spend, you should start spending [$]90, on educating your employee base. Because until you do that, you cannot effectively get the best out of the technology.Kathryn Huberty: And as we look out to 2026, what AI trends are you watching closely and how are we preparing the firm to take advantage of that?Jeff McMillan: You and I were just out in Silicon Valley a couple of weeks ago, and seemingly overnight, every firm has become an agentic one. While much of that is aspirational, I think it's actually going to be, in the long term, a true narrative, right? And I think that step where we are right now is really about experimentation, right? I think we have to learn which tools work, what new governance processes we need to put in place, where the lines are drawn. I think we're still in the early stage, but we're leaning in really hard.We've got about 20 use cases that we're experimenting with right now. As things settle down and the vendor landscape really starts to pan out, we'll be down position to fully take advantage of that.Kathryn Huberty: A key element of the agentic solutions is linking to the data, the tools, the application that we use every day in our workflow. And that ecosystem is developing, and it feels that we're now on the cusp of those agentic workflow applications taking hold.Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to jump in here and ask you a question too. With your own background as an IT hardware analyst, how does the AI era compare to past tech or computing cycles? And what sort of lessons from those cycles shape your view of the opportunities and challenges ahead?Kathryn Huberty: The other big question in the market right now is whether an AI bubble is forming. You hear that in the press. It's one of the questions all three of us are hearing regularly from clients. And implicit in that question is a view that this doesn't look like past cycles, past trends. And I just don't believe that to be the case.We actually see the development of AI following a very similar path. If you go back to mainframe and then minicomputer, the PC, internet, mobile, cloud, and now AI. Each compute cycle is roughly 10 times larger in terms of the amount of installed compute.The reality is we've gone from millions to billions to trillions, and so it feels very different. But the reality is we have a trillion dollars of installed CPU compute, and that means we likely need $10 trillion of installed GPU compute. And so, we are following the same pattern. Yes, the numbers are bigger because we keep 10x-ing, but the pattern is the same. And so again, that tells us we're in the early innings. You know, we're still at the point of the semiconductor technology shipping out into infrastructure. The applications will come.The other pattern from past cycles is that exponential growth is really difficult for humans to model. So, I think back to the early days when Morgan Stanley's technology team was really bullish, laying the groundwork for the PC era, the internet era, the mobile era. When we go back and look at our forecasts, we always underestimated the potential. And so that would suggest that what we've seen with the upward earnings revisions for the AI enablers and soon the AI adopters is likely to continue.And so, I see many patterns, you know, that are thread across computing cycles, and I would just encourage investors to realize that AI so far is following similar patterns.Jeff McMillan: Katy, you make the point that much of the playbook is the same. But is there anything fundamentally different about the AI cycle that investors should be thinking about?Kathryn Huberty: The breadth of impact to industries and corporates, which speaks to Stephen's work. We have now four times over mapped the 3,700 companies globally that Morgan Stanley research covers to understand their role in this theme.Are they enabling AI? Are they adopting? Are they disrupted by it? How important is it to the thesis? Do they have pricing power? It's very valuable data to go and capture the alpha. But I was looking at that dataset recently and a third of those nearly 4,000 companies we cover, our analysts are saying that AI has an impact on the investment thesis. A third. And yet we're still in the early innings. And so, what may be different, and make the impact much bigger and broader is just the sheer number of corporations that will be impacted by the theme.Let's pause here and pick up tomorrow with more on workforce transformation and the impact on individual workers.Thank you to our listeners. Please join us tomorrow for part two of our conversation. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Every year, it seems like food gets more and more....less like food. But there are some foods that slip through the cracks that still seem like they're healthy but aren't. In this episode, I'm giving you 7 foods that are wrecking your gut health right now, and you might not know it.   TOPICS DISCUSSED: 7 foods killing your gut Alternatives to these foods How to pick the best foods for your body and your health   Leave us a Review: https://www.reversablepod.com/review   Need help with your gut? Visit my website gutsolution.ca to join a program: Get help now   Contact us: reversablepod.com/tips    FIND ME ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Instagram  Facebook  YouTube

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps just as important for markets was the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in December.Recently, Jay Powell has acknowledged the potential for rising stress in the funding markets and indicated the Fed could end QT sooner rather than later. Over the past month, expectations for the timing of this QT termination ranged from immediately to as late as February. Powell seemed to split the difference at last week's meeting and this could be viewed as disappointing to some market participants.In order to monitor this development, I will be watching how short-term funding markets behave. Specifically, overnight repo usage has been on the rise and if that continues along with the widening spreads between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and fed funds, I believe equity markets are likely to trade poorly, especially in some of the more speculative areas. In short, we think higher quality areas of the market are likely to continue to outperform until this dynamic is settled.Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing and the real standout has been the upside in revenue surprises, which is currently more than double the historical run-rate. We think this could provide further support that our rolling recovery thesis is under way which leads to much better earnings growth than most are expecting.Bottom line, we are gaining more confidence in our core view that a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and the beginning of a new cycle. This means higher and broader earnings growth in 2026 and a potentially different leadership in the equity market. The full broadening out to lower quality, smaller capitalization stocks is being held back by a Fed that continues to fight inflation; perhaps not realizing how much the private economy and average consumer needs lower rates for this rolling recovery to fully blossom. Last week's Fed meeting could be disappointing in that regard in the short run for equity markets. As a result, stay up the quality curve until we get more clarity on the timing of a more dovish path by the Fed and look for stress in funding markets as a possible buying opportunity into year end.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

A mixed session as the major averages kicked off a seasonally strong month. Cantor's Eric Johnston makes the case for a rally in stocks, bonds, and bitcoin into year-end. Meantime Mark Zandi from Moody's on why he says the US would be in a recession if it weren't for the AI trade. Ares CEO Michael Arougheti joins right after his earnings call to break down what drove a strong quarter for the alternative asset manager and his outlook for deals. Plus the news moving Beyond Meat and Palantir, and details behind the mega-deal between Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

I've been working at one of the premiere jazz stations in the country since the summer of 2022. In the spring of 2024 I was given a twice a week two hour radio program called The Song Break to program. I brought my existing knowledge of The Great American Songbook and the classic vocalists who are best known for interpreting it to the table. The other side of the equation is the modern day songbook. This required some research into newer singers. Along the way I found one in my own state who was masterfully interpreting the classics AND writing new ones.Olivia Van Goor is a gifted artist and vocalist and I love making new fans out of anyone willing to listen. It is my belief that she will be a breakout national jazz artist at some point, not just one who performs regionally. She has the "IT" factor.Joined by her friend and talented bassist Reuben Stump, Olivia chats about her 4th release "Waiting For Santa." If you aren't in the mood for Holiday music, please at least listen to the conversation and skip the songs until you are ready, but among the 4 songs performed only one is a cover and it's not one you hear over and over and over.Please enjoy this session with Olivia and Reuben and please check her out live sometime. You won't be disappointed.Songs written by Olivia Van Goor except where noted:Santa, Did You Get My Letter?Holiday Traditions (OVG and Reuben Stump)Hermey's Blues (OVG and Mike Harrison)There's Always Tomorrow (Johnny Marks)Do yourself a favor and check out Olivia on line at: https://www.oliviavangoor.com/Want to learn more and support Acoustic Alternatives? https://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesNone of it, I mean NONE of it happens without the support of Grove Studios:https://grovestudios.space/

Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country's new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Today – Japan's stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors. It's Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo. Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally. You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It's significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar. And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether. Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan's cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there's still room to grow compared to other countries. The government's push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy. Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They're managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet. Japan's regulatory approach is strict: stablecoins must be 100 percent backed by high-quality, liquid assets, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited. Issuers must meet transparency and reserve requirements, and monthly audits are standard. This is similar to new rules in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. What does this mean in practice? Financial institutions are exploring stablecoins for instant payments, asset management, and lending. For example, real-time settlement of stock and bond trades normally take days. These transactions could happen in seconds with stablecoins. They also enable new business models like Banking-as-a-Service and Web3 integration, although regulatory costs and low interest rates remain hurdles for profitability.Or think about SWIFT transactions, the backbone of international payments. Stablecoins will not replace SWIFT, but they can supplement it. Payments that used to take days can now be completed in seconds, with up to 80 percent lower fees. But trust in issuers and compliance with anti-money laundering rules are critical. There's another topic on top of investors' minds. CBDCs – Central Bank Digital Currencies. Both stablecoins and CBDCs are digital. But digital currencies are issued by central banks and considered legal tender, whereas stablecoins are private-sector innovations. Japan is the world's fourth-largest economy and considered a leader in technology. But it takes a cautious approach to financial transformation. It is preparing for a CBDC but hasn't committed to launching one yet. If and when that happens, stablecoins and CBDCs can coexist, with the digital currency serving as public infrastructure and stablecoins driving innovation. So, what's the bottom line? Japan's stablecoin journey is just beginning, but its impact could ripple across payments, asset management, and even global finance. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

We're back with incredible SMART-Certified Biological Dentist Dr. Toni Engram part two! This one goes even deeper into the mouth-body connection. Dr. Toni is a SMART-certified biological dentistry expert, integrative health coach, and founder of Flourish Dental Boutique.In this episode, Dr. Toni and I talk about how oral and dental health connect to hormones, the nervous system, and even sleep. She explains how small changes in dental hygiene can ripple out into every aspect of our lives—from our energy levels to our aging process.You'll also hear practical insights on tooth decay, tooth enamel care, and root canal alternatives, making this a must-listen for anyone curious about alternative dentistry.We also get into the emotional and spiritual side of dentistry: how trauma can live in the body and even show up in the mouth, why self-worth often affects oral health, and how caring for our teeth can become a radical act of self-love.Plus, Dr. Toni shares her personal story—how she rebuilt her life and career after loss, and why dentistry is her calling. This conversation will leave you inspired to see oral care as a doorway to vitality, resilience, and wholeness.Topics include:The connection between dental health, hormones, and sleepThe truth about root canal alternatives and silver fillingsHydroxyapatite, ozone therapy, and remineralizing teethHow tea tree oil mouth rinse supports natural gum healthThe role of alternative and biological dentistry in overall wellnessTune in to discover how small changes in your dental health can transform your whole body.If you enjoyed this conversation, rate and review The Amy Edwards Show—it helps more people find us!Timestamps00:00:00 Intro00:02:36 Should dental care be an add-on to medical insurance?00:05:24 Brian Johnson dental routine 00:09:29 What's a root canal?00:13:57 Root canal connection to health issues00:17:02 Alternatives to root canal00:18:21 What causes tooth root inflammation?00:20:00 Silver fillings and mercury exposure00:24:15 Composition of tooth fillings today00:26:55 Dental sealants - good or bad?00:33:49 Perimenopause and oral health00:39:50 Healthy teeth diet00:44:14 Chewing benefits00:45:37 Ozone therapy00:54:47 Hydroxyapatite nanoparticles00:57:30 Remineralizing teeth00:59:37 Cosmetic dentistry - dental gems01:02:29 Final thoughts and outroMentions and ResourcesDr. Toni Engram: www.flourish.dentalInstagram: https://instagram.com/dr.toniengramPlease remember to rate, review, and follow the show – and share with a friend!Check out our new Comedy Wellness Podcast: Anything But Mid, cohosted with Whitney Stropp:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/anything-but-mid/id1849386215https://www.youtube.com/@AnythingButMidFind Amy's affiliates and discount codes: https://amyedwards.info/affiliatepageSky Rock Sedona: https://www.skyrocksedona.com/20% Discount Link:https://www.marriott.com/event-reservations/reservation-link.mi?id=1759866624184&key=CORP&app=resvlinkAll links: ⁠⁠⁠amyedwards.info⁠⁠⁠Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠@realamyedwards⁠⁠⁠Fight For Her: ⁠⁠⁠fightforher.net⁠⁠⁠TikTok:⁠⁠⁠ @themagicbabe⁠⁠⁠YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠YouTube Channel⁠⁠⁠Podcast: ⁠⁠⁠The Amy Edwards Show Podcast⁠⁠⁠Free Course:⁠⁠⁠ The Ageless Mindset⁠⁠⁠Full Course: ⁠⁠⁠The Youthfulness Hack⁠⁠⁠Work with Amy:⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Book a Call⁠⁠⁠ Let's get you to your HAPPIEST and most RADIANT! Book a call to apply to work together one-on-one: ⁠https://amyedwards.as.me/15mincall⁠Amy's hair by ⁠https://www.thecollectiveatx.com⁠Get my FREE course "The Ageless Mindset: The Ultimate Guide to Look Younger and Feel Happier!" HERE: ⁠https://best-you-life.teachable.com/p/the-ageless-mindset-the-ultimate-guide-to-look-younger-feel-happier⁠Get the full course “The Youthfulness Hack: The Secret System to Reverse Aging Fast and Create a New, Radiant You!” Out now! ⁠https://best-you-life.teachable.com/p/the-youthfulness-hack⁠

Our analysts Ariana Salvatore and Erin Wright explain the pivotal role of healthcare in negotiations to end the government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Erin Wright: And I'm Erin Wright, U.S. Healthcare Services Analyst. Ariana Salvatore: Today we'll talk about what the U.S. government shutdown means for healthcare. It's Thursday, October 30th at 12pm in New York. Thus far, it seems like markets haven't really been paying too much attention to the government shutdown. Obviously, we're aware of the cumulative economic impact that builds every week that it lasts. But we haven't seen any movement from the political front either this week or last, which signals that it could be going on for a while longer. That being said, the end of this month is an important catalyst for a few reasons. First of all, you have the potential rollover of SNAP benefits. You have another potential missed military paycheck. And most importantly, the open enrollment period for healthcare plans. Polling is still showing neither side coming out on top with a clear advantage. Absent that changing, you probably need to see one of two things happen to have any movement forward on this front. Either more direct involvement from President Trump as he wraps up the APEC meeting or some sort of exogenous economic event, like a strike from air traffic controllers. Those types of events obviously are difficult to predict this far in advance. But up until now we know that President Trump has not really been involved in the debate. And the FAA seems to be operating a little bit with delays, but as usual. So, Erin, let's pivot to what's topical in here from a healthcare policy perspective. What are investors that you speak with paying the most attention to? Erin Wright: You bring up some important points Ariana. But from a policy perspective, it's very much an always top of mind for healthcare investors here. Right now, it is a key negotiating factor when it comes to the government shutdown. So, the shutdown debate is predominantly centered around the Affordable Care Act or the healthcare exchanges. This was a part of Obamacare. It was a program where individuals can purchase standalone health insurance through an exchange marketplace.The program has been wildly popular. It's been wildly popular in recent years with 24 million members. Growing 30 per cent last year, particularly with enhanced subsidies that are being offered today. So those subsidies are expected to expire at the end of this year, and those exchange members could be left with some real sticker shock – especially when we're going to see premium increases that could, on average, increase about 25 to 30 percent, in some states even more. So, folks are really starting to see that now. November 1st will be a key date here as open enrollment period begins. Ariana Salvatore: Right. So, as you mentioned, this is pretty key to the entire shutdown debate. Republicans are in favor of letting the expanded subsidies roll off. Democrats want to restore them to that COVID level enhancement. Of course, there's probably some middle path here, and we have seen some background reporting indicating that lawmakers are talking about a potential middle path or concession. So, talk me through what's on the table in terms of negotiating a potential compromise or extension of these subsidies. Erin Wright: So, we could see a permutation of outcomes here. Maybe we don't get a full extension, but we could see something partial come through. We could see something in terms of income caps, which restrict, kind of, the level of participants in the AC exchanges. You could see out-of-pocket minimums, which would eliminate some of those shadow members that we've been seeing and have been problematic across the space. And then you could also grandfather in some existing members that get subsidies today. So, all of those could offer some degrees of positive. And some degrees of relief when it comes to broader healthcare services, when it comes to insurance companies, when it comes to others that are participating in this program, as well as the individuals themselves. So, it's really a patient dynamic that's getting real here. A lot is on the table, but a lot is at stake with the potential for the sunsetting of these subsidies to drive 4 million in uninsured lives. So, it is meaningful, and I think that that's something we have to kind of put into perspective here.So, would love to know Ariana though, beyond healthcare, what are some of those key debates in terms of the negotiations around the shutdown? Ariana Salvatore: Healthcare really is central to this debate. So aside from just the ACA subsidies that we talked about, some Democrats have also been pushing for a repeal or rollback of some of the pieces of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that passed earlier this year. That was the fiscal bill of Republicans passed through the reconciliation process – that included some cuts to Medicaid down the line. So, there's been talk around that front. I think more of a clear path on the subsidies front, because that seems to be something that Republicans are treating as an absolute no-go. Some of the other really key debates are around just kind of how to keep the ball rolling while we're still in the shutdown. So, I mentioned SNAP at first, the potential release of some contingency funds there. Again, the military paychecks are really critical. And, of course, what this all means for incoming data, which is really important – not just for investors but also for the Fed, as it kind of calibrate[s] their next move. In particular, as we head into the December meeting. I think we got a little bit of a hawkish surprise in yesterday's meeting, and that's something that investors were not expecting. So, obviously the longer that this goes on, the more those risks just continue to grow, and this deadline that we're talking about is a really critical one. It's coming up soon. So we should have a sense of how our prognosis pans out in the coming days. Thanks for the conversation, Erin. Erin Wright: Great talking to you, Ariana. Ariana Salvatore: And to our audience, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review wherever you listen. And if you like Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Private equity's footprint in the sports industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. As global team valuations reach unprecedented levels, the sector has become a focal point for both investors and fans, reshaping the broader investment landscape. With capital pouring into sports franchises and valuations climbing steadily over the past two decades, the market is evolving—and so are the opportunities and risks. On today's episode, Aaron Mulvihill sits down with Tyler Jayroe, a portfolio manager with more than 20 years at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Together, they'll unpack the key drivers behind the surge in sports franchise valuations, examine where investment dollars are flowing and highlight the most important trends and challenges facing investors in this space. For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “Crank” and “Crank 2: High Voltage”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 13A:“Survive Style 5+” (Gen Sekiguchi, 2004)“Magnolia” (Paul Thomas Anderson, 1999)“Sisters” (Brian De Palma, 1972)“Edge of Tomorrow” (Doug Liman, 2014)Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 13A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 14A:“Predator” (John McTiernan, 1987)“Close Encounters of the Third Kind” (Steven Spielberg, 1977)“Natural Born Killers” (Oliver Stone, 1994)“No Country For Old Men” (Ethan and Joel Coen, 2007)“Touts les matins de monde (All the Mornings of the World” (Alain Courneu, 1991)“The Exorcist” (William Friedkin, 1973)“WALL*E” (Andrew Stanton, 2008)“Up” (Pete Docter, 2009) Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 14A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2“Bombtrack” (1993) by Rage Against the Machine, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUaL1FnotRQ&list=RDMUaL1FnotRQ&start_radio=1

This week we're comparing Trump accounts to some alternative investment accounts for children under the age of 18.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why the recent revival of M&A activity has room to accelerate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – a discussion of merger and acquisition activity or M&A. Last year, we had a view that this activity would pick up significantly. We think we're seeing that increase now. It has further to go. It's Wednesday, October 29th at 2pm in London. We have been firm believers at Morgan Stanley in a significant multi-year uplift in global merger and acquisition activity or M&A. That conviction remains. The incentives for this type of action are strong in our view; activity still lags what fundamentals would suggest, and supportive regulatory shifts are real. M&A has now returned, and importantly, we think there's much further to go. Indeed, M&A is very closely linked to corporate confidence, and we think investors need to consider the possibility that we'll see an even bigger surge in this confidence – or a boom. First, policy uncertainty is declining as U.S. tax legislation has now passed, and tariff rates get finalized. It's the relative direction of this uncertainty that we think matters most for corporate confidence. Second, interest rates are declining with the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of England all set to cut rates further over the next 12 months. Third, bank capital requirements may decline in the view of Morgan Stanley analysts, which would unlock more lending for these types of transactions. Fourth, and very importantly, the regulatory backdrop is becoming more accommodative in both the U.S. and in Europe. Indeed, we think that companies may think that this is going to be the most permissive regulatory window for transactions that they might get for some time. Fifth, private equity, which is a big driver of M&A activity, is sitting on over $4 trillion of dry powder in our view – at a time when credit markets look very wide open for financing their transactions. And finally, we're seeing a surge in capital expenditure on Morgan Stanley estimates, which we see as a sign of rising corporate confidence, and importantly an urgency to act – with corporates far less content to simply sit back and repurchase their stock. All of these favorable conditions together argue for activity to push even higher. We forecast global M&A volumes to increase by 32 percent this year, an additional 20 percent next year, and reach $7.8 trillion in volume in 2027. This is a global story with M&A rising across regions, especially in Japan. It has cross-asset implications with M&A already being one of the biggest drivers of bond outperformance within the U.S. high-yield market. And this is also a story where we see a lot of value in bringing together macro and micro perspectives. While we think the top-down conditions look favorable for all the reasons I just mentioned, we also see a very encouraging picture bottom up. We polled a large number of Morgan Stanley sector analyst teams and asked them about M&A conditions in their sector. A large majority of them see more activity. So, where could these more specific implications lie? Well, as you heard on yesterday's episode, Healthcare and Biotech may see an uptick in activity. In the U.S., we also think that Banking and Media stand out. In Europe, Business Services, Metals and Mining, and Telecom seem most ripe for more M&A. Aerospace and Defense is an interesting sector that may see more M&A within multiple regions, including the U.S. and Europe, as companies look for scale. And with smaller companies trading at a valuation discount to their larger peers across the world, Morgan Stanley analysts generally see the strongest case for activity in larger companies acquiring these smaller ones. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This week on Swimming with Allocators, Peter Lazaroff, Chief Investment Officer at PlanCorp, joins Earnest and Alexa to discuss his cautious approach to investing, emphasizing minimizing mistakes, favoring rules-based strategies, and the importance of aligning investment decisions with individual client goals. The conversation covers reasons for skepticism about venture capital and alternatives, the significance of customization in wealth management, and evolving relationships between LPs and GPs. Listeners will gain insights into managing risk, the importance of purpose in portfolios, key strategies for long-term wealth-building, and so much more. Also, don't miss Sidley's Shane Goudey reflects on the shift from adversarial to collaborative LP-GP relationships, describes Sidley's direct investment vehicles, and emphasizes the importance of strategic alignment and strong partnerships between law firms and their fund clients.Highlights from this week's conversation include:Peter Shares His Investment Philosophy and FDA Analogy (1:24)Early Career, First Stock, and Influences On Investing Approach (3:43)Serving High Net Worth Clients And Market Portfolio Concept (6:55)Portfolio Customization, Financial Planning, and Client Differentiation (9:43)Sponsor Segment: GP/LP Relationships, Historic and Modern (10:44)Sidley's Investment Approach, Capital Pools, and Alignment With Clients (15:24)Advisors Selling Complexity, CIO Forum Experiences on Alternatives (18:54)Skepticism of Alternatives for All Investors and Emotional Side of Investing (23:16)Personal Finance Tools and Resources Developed by Peter (27:50)Philosophy Behind Peter's "Perfect Portfolio" Book (30:03)Peter on Investments He'd Make if He Won the Lottery; Personal Motivations (32:29)Final Thoughts and Takeaways (35:10)Plancorp Wealth Management is a privately held financial services firm founded in 1983 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. The firm manages approximately $8 billion in assets, operates as a fee-only fiduciary, offers integrated wealth services including planning, investing, tax, estate, insurance, charitable giving and equity compensation, and has offices in Nashville, Sarasota, and San Francisco; it was named to Barron's Top 100 RIA Firms (2025) and holds CEFEX certification since 2007. https://www.plancorp.com/Sidley Austin LLP is a premier global law firm with a dedicated Venture Funds practice, advising top venture capital firms, institutional investors, and private equity sponsors on fund formation, investment structuring, and regulatory compliance. With deep expertise across private markets, Sidley provides strategic legal counsel to help funds scale effectively. Learn more at sidley.com.Swimming with Allocators is a podcast that dives into the intriguing world of Venture Capital from an LP (Limited Partner) perspective. Hosts Alexa Binns and Earnest Sweat are seasoned professionals who have donned various hats in the VC ecosystem. Each episode, we explore where the future opportunities lie in the VC landscape with insights from top LPs on their investment strategies and industry experts shedding light on emerging trends and technologies. The information provided on this podcast does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal advice; instead, all information, content, and materials available on this podcast are for general informational purposes only. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Join my online school for eBay sellers here. Get my BOLO books (eBook format) hereGet my BOLO books (printed format) hereFollow me on FacebookJoin my private Facebook group here.Find me on YouTube here.Visit my website here.Email your comments, feedback, and constructive criticism to me at Suzanne@SuzanneAWells.comSupport the show

On this special Halloween edition of Practice Makes Parent, Rebecca and Danny discuss the complexities of celebrating Halloween from a Christian perspective. The conversation includes insights from Jesse Florea, editor in-chief of Clubhouse and Brio Magazine. The trio address the historical pagan roots of Halloween, its commercialism, and how Christian families can balance participation while staying true to their faith. We discuss various approaches such as using the holiday for outreach, choosing positive costumes, or opting out altogether. Should Christians Celebrate Halloween? Download Your Free Adventures In Odyssey trial cards to help us share Jesus this October! Join What Does The Bible Say About The Supernatural? Click Here Check out this Video from Danny Support the show! Here's a Discount Code for Focus On The Family Magazines for October/November - MAGS2510- for the online store. You can get $5 off! We'd love to hear from you! Visit our Homepage to leave us a voicemail. If you enjoyed listening to Practice Makes Parent with Dr. Danny Huerta and Rebecca St. James, please give us your feedback.

Our U.S. Biotech and Biopharma analysts Sean Laaman and Terence Flynn discuss the latest developments that could be positioning the healthcare sector for strong outperformance.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Sean Laaman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sean Laaman, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Biotech Analyst. Terence Flynn: And I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Biopharma Analyst. Sean Laaman: Today, we'll discuss how a rally in the healthcare sector is being driven by more favorable macro conditions. It's Tuesday, October 28th at 10am in New York. So, Terence, healthcare has lagged the broader market year-to-date, and valuations have been near historical lows. But recent weeks show strengthening performance. Policy headwinds have been front and center.What's changed in the regulatory environment and how is the biopharma sector adapting to these pricing and tariff dynamics? Terence Flynn: Sean, as you know, with many other sectors, tariffs were initially a focus earlier this year. But a number of companies in our space have subsequently announced significant U.S. manufacturing investments to reshore supply chains. And hence, the market's less focused on tariffs in our space right now. But the other policy dynamic and focus is what's called Most Favored Nation or MFN drug pricing. Now, this is where the President's been focused on aligning U.S. drug prices with those in other developed countries. And recently we've seen several companies announce agreements with the administration along these lines, which importantly has provided investors with more visibility here. And we're watching to see if additional agreements get announced. Sean Laaman: Got it. Another hurdle for Large-cap biopharma is a looming expiration of patents with [$]177 billion exposed by 2030. How is this shaping M&A trends and strategic priorities? Terence Flynn: For sure. I mean, as you know, Sean, patent expiry is our normal part of the life cycle of drug development. Every company goes through this at some point, but this does put the focus on company's internal pipelines to continue to progress while also being able to access external innovation via M&A. Recently we have started to see a pickup in deal activity, which could bode well for performance in SMID-cap biotech. Sean Laaman: At the same time, you believe relative valuations look compelling for Large-cap biopharma. Where are valuations versus where they've been historically? What's driving this and how should investors think about positioning? Terence Flynn: Absolutely. Look, on a price to earnings multiple, the sector's trading at about a 30 percent discount to the S&P 500 right now. Now that's in line with prior periods of policy uncertainty. But as policy visibility improves, we expect the focus will shift back to fundamentals. Now, positioning to me still feels light here, given some of the patent cliff dynamics we just discussed. Now, Sean, with the Fed moving toward rate cuts, how do you see this impacting your sector on the biotech side? Sean Laaman: Well, Terence, particularly in my space, which is Small- and Mid-cap biotech companies, they're typically capital consumers are not capital producers. They're particularly sensitive to the current rate environment.Therefore, they're sensitive to spending on pipeline. They're sensitive to M&A. So, as rates come down, we expect more spending on pipeline and more M&A activity, which is generally positive for the sector. Looking forward, biotech sector is generally the best performing sector on a six-to-12-month timeframe post the first rate cut. Terence Flynn: Great. You've also talked about this SMID to Big thesis on the biotech side. Can you explain what's driving that? Sean Laaman: Sure Terence. There's three pieces to the SMID to Big thematic. So, we in SMID-cap biotech, we cover 80 to 90 companies. About a third of those are newly, kind of profitable companies. Those companies are turning from being capital consumers to capital producers. We see about $15 billion of cash on balance sheets for 2025, going to north of 130 billion by 2030. That's the first piece. The second piece is due to regulatory uncertainty at the USFDA. We're seeing more attractive valuations amongst clinical stage names. That's the second piece. And third piece relates to your coverage, Terence. I refer back to that [$]177 billion of LOE. So, we expect generally that M&A activity will be quite high amongst our sector. Terence Flynn: And let's not forget about AI, which has implications across the healthcare space. How much is this changing the dynamic in biotech, Sean? Sean Laaman: It is changing, but we're really at the beginning. I think there's three things to think about. The first one is faster trial recruitment. The second one is faster regulatory submissions. And the third one, which is the most interesting, but we're really at the beginning of, is faster time to appropriately targeted molecules. Terence Flynn: Great. And maybe lastly, what are the key risks and catalysts for SMID-cap biotech in the current environment? Sean Laaman: As always, we're focused on pipeline failures in terms of risk. Secondly, in terms of risk, we're looking at regulatory risk at the FDA. And thirdly, we're looking at the rise in China biotech and the competitive dynamic there.Whether you're watching large cap biopharma, M&A moves, or the rise of cash-rich, SMID-cap biotechs, the healthcare sector setup is unlike anything we've seen in years.Terence, thanks for speaking with me. Terence Flynn: Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks for having me, Sean. Sean Laaman: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

This week Taylor rejoins us for some fun Halloween nonsense! Recap of the California trip. Book Binding and how it's done. Fanfic but good! Why childhood relationships can change on a dime. Alternatives to Adobe stuff. Getting a HomoPass from Tanner, and loads more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's easy to make gut health mistakes when you don't know that what you're doing is a problem. In this episode, you're going to learn the top 10 things you're doing wrong and I'll give you options to help you avoid and fix these mistakes. This episode is all about quick changes to begin healing your gut now. TOPICS DISCUSSED: The top 10 gut health mistakes you're making now Alternatives so you can stop making these mitakes Diet, lifestyle, antibiotics, probiotics, and more CLICK HERE to book a call with me and my team Leave us a Review: https://www.reversablepod.com/review Need help with your gut? Visit my website gutsolution.ca to join a program: Get help now Contact us: reversablepod.com/tips FIND ME ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Instagram Facebook YouTube

Joel Hammon—former public school teacher, founder of Princeton Learning Cooperative, co-founder of Liberated Learners, and author of The Teacher Liberation Handbook—joins Kerry to explore the global rise of self-directed learning centers. These community-based programs, including the Princeton Learning Cooperative and many more within the Liberated Learners network, offer homeschooled tweens and teens a flexible alternative to conventional school: no forced curriculum and an individualized path guided by curiosity and purpose. Joel shares his transformation from classroom teacher to education entrepreneur, and how the North Star model inspired a movement of "learning cooperatives" that work like a YMCA for education—students choose when to attend, what to learn, and how to grow. We talk about college admissions for self-directed learners, how narrative transcripts help teens transition smoothly to their next step, and why demand for these centers continues to rise. If you're curious about self-directed education—or considering starting a center yourself—this conversation offers inspiration, practical guidance, and a look at the future of learner-driven freedom. *** Sign up for Kerry's free, weekly email newsletter on education trends at edentrepreneur.org. Kerry's latest book, Joyful Learning: How to Find Freedom, Happiness, and Success Beyond Conventional Schooling, is available now wherever books are sold!

This week Taylor rejoins us for some fun Halloween nonsense! Recap of the California trip. Book Binding and how it's done. Fanfic but good! Why childhood relationships can change on a dime. Alternatives to Adobe stuff. Getting a HomoPass from Tanner, and loads more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for stocks after the preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement and ahead of the Fed meeting and big tech earnings.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the remaining hurdles for equities after what appears to be a preliminary trade deal with China.It's Monday, October 27th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Over the past few weeks, trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated once again focused on rare earths and technology transfers with each country playing its strongest card. Over the weekend, it appears that we have at least a preliminary agreement to de-escalate these tensions which means avoiding prohibitively high tariffs that were scheduled to go on at the end of this month. While we don't have many details on what has been agreed to, it appears that critical rare earths will continue to ship to the U.S. while technology transfer restrictions by the U.S. to China will ease. Presumably, Fentanyl tariffs of 20 percent on China are likely to be part of any broader agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi, if they end up meeting at the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.Given the sharp sell-off in stocks a few weeks ago on the news of trade tensions re-escalating, it's not surprising that stocks are rallying sharply this morning on news of a possible deal from last week's talks. Our attention now turns to the other big events this week. First, the Federal Reserve is meeting tomorrow and Wednesday to decide its next move on monetary policy. There is a broad consensus view that the Fed will cut another 25 basis points but there are very different views about how they will address its balance sheet run-off known as quantitative tightening, or QT. Based on my conversations, there is a growing consensus view for the Fed to announce the end of QT but uncertainty around the timing. Our house view is for the Fed to wait until the January meeting to make this official with an end of the program in February. Others believe the Fed could announce something as early as this week. That dispersion in expectations does create some room for disappointment from markets, especially given the recent increase in funding market spreads. More specifically, the widening in spreads suggests banking reserves may already be too low and restrictive for the pick-up in economic activity and capital spending that requires more liquidity. Second, earnings revision breadth has rolled over sharply the past few weeks. Most of this decline is due to normal seasonality and the fact that revisions breadth had reached unsustainably high levels since bottoming out in April. Therefore, a reset should be expected as we previewed over a month ago. Nevertheless, it needs to stabilize and push higher again for stocks to continue their advance in my view. Perhaps most importantly for the S&P 500 is the fact that all of the hyperscalers are reporting this week and will likely determine if revision breadth rebounds. It will also be important to see how those stocks react to what is likely to be continued aggressive guidance on AI capex plans. Since April, the hyperscaler stocks have rewarded higher guidance on spending. Should that change, we may see a different tone to how these companies discuss their spending plans. Bottom line, I remain bullish on my 12 month view for U.S. stocks based on what I believe will be better and broader growth in earnings next year. Nevertheless, the near term window remains a bit cloudy on trade, Fed policy shifts and earnings revisions breadth. Stay patient with new capital deployment and look to take advantage of downdrafts when they arise like a few weeks ago. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Main Topic: Halloween and Spiritual Awareness•The podcast's main focus is on Halloween, exploring whether to celebrate it or not and what spiritual implications it may have.•Merrill and Linda reflect on their upbringing, noting they didn't grow up with a strict stance on Halloween, viewing it as just a time for trick-or-treating.Key Points Discussed1.Cultural Desensitization:•The hosts express concern about how society has normalized horror, violence, and gruesomeness, particularly in entertainment.•They emphasize the importance of awareness regarding the messages conveyed through horror films and other media.2.Parental Responsibility:•The conversation stresses the need for parents to guide their children on how to engage with Halloween.•Parents should consider how traditions might influence children's perceptions of evil and violence.3.Spiritual Warfare:•The hosts talk about the concept of spiritual warfare, drawing from Ephesians 6, where they emphasize the importance of being aware of spiritual forces of evil.•They encourage listeners to instill values in their children that honor God and promote a healthy understanding of good and evil.4.Alternatives to Traditional Celebrations:•Suggestions are provided on how to celebrate Halloween in a way that focuses on positive themes, such as harvest festivals and family gatherings.•They recommend creating a safe space for conversations around the origins of Halloween and avoiding practices that might promote fear or evil.5.Redemption of the Holiday:•There's a call to action for families to redeem Halloween by using it as an opportunity for community engagement.•Examples include handing out treats and hosting neighborhood events that promote fellowship rather than fear.6.Educational Conversations:•The importance of discussing the history and implications of Halloween traditions with children.•Engaging in open dialogue helps children understand the difference between fun and what might be morally or spiritually questionable.Conclusion•The hosts remind listeners to remain alert and intentional about not only how they celebrate Halloween but also how they approach the themes of evil and good in life.•They emphasize that while Halloween can be a fun time, it is essential to maintain a focus on honoring God and promoting a lifestyle of light over darkness.Call to Action•The podcast encourages listeners to reach out for support if they struggle with parenting or other challenges in life.This summary captures the essence of the discussion surrounding Halloween, emphasizing the importance of spiritual awareness and responsible parenting.rocksolidfamilies.orgSupport the show#Rocksolidfamilies, #familytherapy, #marriagecounseling, #parenting, #faithbasedcounseling, #counseling, #Strongdads, #coaching, #lifecoach, #lifecoaching, #marriagecoaching, #marriageandfamily, #control, #security, #respect, #affection, #love, #purpose, #faith, #affairs, #infidelity

Chad discusses date showing that trade school enrollment has made a huge jump in the past decade as students increasingly choose that path over college or other alternatives.

Can you dig it? I got to visit with Jen Sygit. A large reason I do this podcast is to shine the spotlight on artists I think deserve more attention than they are getting. All three of Jen's most recent releases were in my top 5 albums of the year they were released. She's had some wonderful opportunities in her 20+ years as a performing musician. We chat about those and mention that she's got her first headlining gig at The Ark in November.All songs written by Jen Sygit:Grandma Went to Heaven In A Cowgirl Cadillac Smell The FlowersMarshall StreetOne In A MillionMore about Jen Sygit: http://www.jensygit.com/More about Acoustic Alternatives: https://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesMore about Grove Studios: https://grovestudios.space/

David's first album, The Nightshift Watchman, came out independently in 1987. In 1989 he made his major label debut on A&M Records with How Did You Find Me Here, which included modern folk classics that he still plays in his sets 35+ years later ("Eye of the Hurricane" & "Rusty Old American Dream").Ask a handful of younger modern folk singers and no doubt some of them will cite David's playing and/or writing as an influence on what they are doing.It was a pleasure to chat with David again as he has just put out his best album in many years, The Way I Tell The Story. Hear some of the story in this visit as well as two songs not on any record yet.Bonus! The old Acoustic Alternatives WHFR show intro and the classic ann arbor's 107one show ID.Songs written by David Wilcox:"I'm From Nowhere""Miss Liberty""The Way I Tell The Story""The Beautiful"More about David: https://www.davidwilcox.com/More about Acoustic Alternatives: https://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesMore about Grove Studios: https://grovestudios.space/

Aaron Benanav discusses the first part of his ‘Beyond Capitalism' essay series in the New Left Review. In this part he lays the groundwork for his proposal of a multi-criterial economy. SASE - Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics: https://sase.org/ SASE Network I: Alternatives to Capitalism (including CfP): https://sase.org/networks/i-alternatives-to-capitalism/     Shownotes Aaron at Cornell University: https://cals.cornell.edu/people/aaron-benanav Aaron's personal website: https://www.aaronbenanav.com/ Access to Aaron's paywalled publications: https://www.aaronbenanav.com/papers Mailing List to join the Movement for Multi-Dimensional Economics: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeUF7MZ2jQJXY_wHKn5xSIo-_L0tkMO-SG079sa5lGhRJTgqg/viewform Benanav, A. (2025). Beyond Capitalism—1. New Left Review, Issue 153, 65–128. https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii153/articles/aaron-benanav-beyond-capitalism-1 Benanav, A. (2025). Beyond Capitalism—2. New Left Review, Issue 154, 97–143. https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii154/articles/aaron-benanav-beyond-capitalism-2 Benanv, A. (2020). Automation and the Future of Work. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/2682-automation-and-the-future-of-work on economic stagnation, see especially chapter 3, “In the Shadow of Stagnation”. on Marx's concept of the Value-Form: https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/appendix.htm Moore, J.W. & Patel, R. (2020). A History of the World in Seven Cheap Things. A Guide to Capitalism, Nature, and the Future of the Planet. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/817-a-history-of-the-world-in-seven-cheap-things on the abstract domination of capitalism: Postone, M. (1993). Time, Labor and Social Domination. A Reinterpretation of Marx's Critical Theory. Cambridge University Press. https://files.libcom.org/files/Moishe%20Postone%20-%20Time,%20Labor,%20and%20Social%20Domination.pdf Mau, S. (2023). Mute Compulsion. A Marxist Theory of the Economic Power of Capital. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/2759-mute-compulsion Leipold, B. (2024). Citizen Marx. Republicanism and the Formation of Karl Marx's Social and Political Thought. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691205236/citizen-marx on GDP (Gross Domestic Product): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product on the Five-Year Plans in the Soviet Union: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_the_Soviet_Union Katsenelinboigen, A. (1977). Coloured Markets in the Soviet Union. Soviet Studies. Vol. 29, No.1. 62-85. https://www.jstor.org/stable/150728 Uvalić, M. (2018). The Rise and Fall of Market Socialism in Yugoslavia. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331223694_The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Market_Socialism_in_Yugoslavia on Friedrich Hayek: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek Hayek, F. A. (1945). The Use of Knowledge in Society. The American Economic Review, 35(4), 519–530. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1809376 on the Pareto Optimum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficiency on Rational Choice Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_choice_model on Behavioral Economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics on Otto Neurath: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Neurath on Neurath's technocratic tendencies: https://jacobin.com/2023/02/technocratic-socialism-otto-neurath-utopianism-capitalism on Joseph Raz: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Raz on Utilitarianism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism on the Capability Approach by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability_approach on the Human Development Index (HDI): https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI on the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs): https://sdgs.un.org/goals on Multi-Objective Optimization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-objective_optimization Saros, D. E. (2014). Information Technology and Socialist Construction. The End of Capital and the Transition to Socialism. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Information-Technology-and-Socialist-Construction-The-End-of-Capital-and-the-Transition-to-Socialism/Saros/p/book/9780415742924 on Neoclassical Economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoclassical_economics on Citizen Assemblies and Sortition: https://www.sortitionfoundation.org/ on John Stuart Mill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill Mill, J. S. (2011). On Liberty. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/on-liberty/62EC27F1E66E2BCBA29DDCD5294B3DE0 McCabe, H. (2021). John Stuart Mill, Socialist. McGill-Queen's University Press. https://www.mqup.ca/john-stuart-mill--socialist-products-9780228005742.php on Degrowth: https://degrowth.info/ on Nick Land and Right Accelerationism: https://youtu.be/lrOVKHg_PJQ?si=Q4oFbaM1p4fhcWP0 on Left Accelerationism: https://criticallegalthinking.com/2013/05/14/accelerate-manifesto-for-an-accelerationist-politics/ Devine, P. (2002). Participatory Planning through Negotiated Coordination. Science & Society, Vol. 66, No. 1, 72-85. https://guilfordjournals.com/doi/abs/10.1521/siso.66.1.72.21001?journalCode=siso on Oskar R. Lange: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_R._Lange on Lange's neoclassical approach to Socialism: https://jacobin.com/2022/10/oskar-lange-neoclassical-marxism-limits-of-capitalism-economic-theory Kowalik, T. (1990). Lange-Lerner Mechanism. In: Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., Newman, P. (eds). Problems of the Planned Economy. Palgrave Macmillan. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-20863-0_21 on Joseph Schumpeters concept of Creative Destruction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction Shaikh, A. (2016). Capitalism. Competition, Conflict, Crises. Oxford Academic. https://academic.oup.com/book/1464 Kornai, J. (1980). “Hard” and “Soft” Budget Constraint. Acta Oeconomica, 25(3/4), 231–245. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40728773 on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas_production_function on Adam Smith: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith Lutosch, H. (2025). Embracing the Small Stuff. Caring for Children in a Liberated Society. In: Groos, J., & Sorg, C. (Eds.). (2025). Creative Construction. Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction Hahnel, R. (2021). Democratic Economic Planning. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Democratic-Economic-Planning/Hahnel/p/book/9781032003320 Cockshott, P. & Cottrell, A. (1993). Towards a New Socialism. Spokesman. https://users.wfu.edu/cottrell/socialism_book/new_socialism.pdf on Universal Basic Services (UBS): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_services https://autonomy.work/ubs-hub/ Fraser, N. & Sorg, C. (2025). Socialism, Planning and the Relativity of Dirt. In: Groos, J., & Sorg, C. (Eds.). (2025). Creative Construction. Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction on Milton Friedman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman on John Maynard Keynes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes Aaron on what to learn from radical Keynesianism for a transitionary Program: Benanav, A. & Henwood, D. (2025). Behind the News. Beyond the Capitalist Economy w/ Aaron Benanav. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2diIiFkkM4x7MoZhi9e0tx on Socializing Finance: McCarthy, M. A. (2025). The Master's Tools. How Finance Wrecked Democracy (And a Radical Plan to Rebuild It). Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/755-the-master-s-tools Future Histories Episodes on Related Topics S3E47 | Jason W. Moore on Socialism in the Web of Life https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e47-jason-w-moore-on-socialism-in-the-web-of-life/ S03E29 | Nancy Fraser on Alternatives to Capitalism https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e29-nancy-fraser-on-alternatives-to-capitalism/ S03E04 | Tim Platenkamp on Republican Socialism, General Planning and Parametric Control https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e04-tim-platenkamp-on-republican-socialism-general-planning-and-parametric-control/ S02E33 | Pat Devine on Negotiated Coordination https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s02/e33-pat-devine-on-negotiated-coordination/ S03E10 | Aaron Benanav on Associational Socialism and Democratic Planning https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s02/e10-aaron-benanav-on-associational-socialism-and-democratic-planning/ S01E32 | Daniel E. Saros on Digital Socialism and the Abolition of Capital (Part 2) https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s01/e32-daniel-e-saros-on-digital-socialism-and-the-abolition-of-capital-part-2/ S02E31 | Daniel E. Saros on Digital Socialism and the Abolition of Capital (Part 1) https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s01/e31-daniel-e-saros-on-digital-socialism-and-the-abolition-of-capital-part-1/ --- If you are interested in democratic economic planning, these resources might be of help: Democratic planning – an information website https://www.democratic-planning.com/ Sorg, C. & Groos, J. (eds.)(2025). Rethinking Economic Planning. Competition & Change Special Issue Volume 29 Issue 1. https://journals.sagepub.com/toc/ccha/29/1 Groos, J. & Sorg, C. (2025). Creative Construction - Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. [for a review copy, please contact: amber.lanfranchi[at]bristol.ac.uk] https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction International Network for Democratic Economic Planning https://www.indep.network/ Democratic Planning Research Platform: https://www.planningresearch.net/ --- Future Histories Contact & Support If you like Future Histories, please consider supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/FutureHistories Contact: office@futurehistories.today Twitter: https://twitter.com/FutureHpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/futurehpodcast/ Mastodon: https://mstdn.social/@FutureHistories English webpage: https://futurehistories-international.com   Episode Keywords #AaronBenanav, #JanGroos, #Interview, #FutureHistories, #FutureHistoriesInternational, #futurehistoriesinternational, #Transition, #DemocraticPlanning, #Keynes, #Efficiency, #Economics, #NeoclassicalEconomics, #NeoclassicalSocialism, #OttoNeurath, #DemocraticEconomicPlanning, #Capitalism, #Economics, #Socialism, #Socialisation, #Investment, #Degrowth, #UniversalBasicServices, #CareWork

Our U.S. Software Analyst Sanjit Singh explains how AI is reshaping software development and why the future for the sector may be brighter – and busier – than ever.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sanjit Singh, the U.S. Software Analyst at Morgan Stanley.Today: how AI is transforming software and what that means for developers.It's Friday, October 24th, at 10am in New York.There's been a lot of news stories and anecdotal accounts about AI taking over jobs, especially in the software industry. You may have heard of vibe coding, where people can use natural language prompts, guiding AI to build software applications. So yes, AI is creating a world where software writes itself. But at the same time, the demand for human creativity only grows.The introduction of AI coding assistants has dramatically expanded what software can do, fueling a surge in both the volume of code and the complexity of projects. But instead of shrinking the developer workforce, AI is actually supporting continued growth in developer headcount, even as productivity soars.We're estimating the software development market will grow at a 20 percent compound annual growth rate, reaching $61 billion by 2029. And that's up from $24 billion in 2024. And in terms of the developer population, [research] firms like IDC expect it to jump from 30 million paid developers in 2024 to 50 million by 2029 – that's a 10 percent annual growth rate. Even the most conservative estimates, like those from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, see developer jobs growing roughly 2 percent per year through 2033, outpacing overall employment growth.So, what does this mean for people behind the code? AI isn't replacing developers. It's redefining them. Routine tasks are increasingly handled by AI agents, and this frees up developers to become curators, reviewers, architects, and most important problem-solvers.The upshot? Companies may need fewer developers for repetitive work, but the overall demand for skilled engineers remains robust. As AI lowers the barrier to entry, the pool of people who can build software applications expands dramatically. But at the same time, the complexity and ambitions of projects rise, keeping experienced developers in high demand.No doubt, AI coding tools are delivering real productivity gains. Some teams are reporting nearly doubling their code capacity and cutting pull request times in half after adopting AI assistants. Test coverage has increased sharply, resulting in 20 percent fewer production incidents for some organizations. But there is a catch with all this AI-generated code. It's creating significant new bottlenecks downstream.An example of this is code review, which is becoming a major pain point. Many organizations are experiencing pull request fatigue, with developers rubber-stamping changes just to keep up. Some teams now require three reviewers for AI-generated change, compared to just one before. And in terms of automated testing, systems are getting overwhelmed because every change made with AI sets off a complete round of test.Now we estimate productivity gains from AI in software engineering at about 15–20 percent. But in complex projects, the gains are much lower, as the volume of new code often means more bugs and more rework – and hence more human developers.So where do we go from here? In our view, the future isn't about fully autonomous software development. Instead, large enterprises are likely to favor an integrated approach, where AI agents and human developers work side by side. AI will automate more of the software development lifecycle. And that not only includes coding – which, coding typically accounts for 10-20 percent of the software development effort – but other areas like testing, security, and deployment. But humans will remain in the loop for oversight, design, and decision-making. And as software gets cheaper and faster to build, organizations won't just do the same work with fewer people – they likely will do more.In short, the need for skilled developers isn't going away. But it's definitely evolving. And in the age of AI, it's not about man versus machine. It's about man with machine. And so with more software, we see more developers.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets wades into the debate around whether the boom in artificial intelligence investment is a warning sign for credit markets. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today – the debate about whether elevated capital expenditure and AI technology is showing classic warning signs of overbuilding and worries for credit.It's Thursday, October 23rd at 2pm in London.Two things are true. AI related investment will be one of the largest investment cycles of this generation. And there is a long history of major investment cycles causing major headaches to the credit market. From the railroads to electrification, to the internet to shale oil, there are a number of instances where heavy investment created credit weakness, even when the underlying technology was highly successful.So, let's dig into this and why we think this AI CapEx cycle actually has much further to run.First, Morgan Stanley has done a lot of good collaborative in-depth work on where the AI related spend is coming from and what's still in the pipeline. And importantly, most of the spending that we expect is still well ahead of us. It's only really ramping up starting now.Next, we think that AI is seen as the most important technology of the next decade by some of the biggest, most profitable companies on the planet. We think this increases their willingness to invest and stick with those investments, even if there's a lot of uncertainty around what the return on all of this expenditure will ultimately be.Third, unlike some other major recent capital expenditure cycles – be they the internet of the late 1990s or shale oil of the mid 2010s, both of which were challenging for credit – much of the spending that we're seeing today on AI is backed by companies with extremely strong balance sheets and significant additional debt capacity. That just wasn't the case with some of those other prior investment cycles and should help this one run for longer.And finally, if we think about really what went wrong with some of these prior capital expenditure cycles, it's often really about overcapacity. A new technology – be it the railroads or electricity or the internet – comes along and it is transformational.And because it's transformational, you build a lot of it. And then sometimes you build too much; you build ahead of the underlying demand. And that can lower returns on that investment and cause losses.We can understand why large levels of AI capital investment and the history of large investment cycles in the past causes understandable concern. But when tying these dynamics together, it's important to remember why large investment cycles have a checkered history. It's usually not about the technology not working per se, but rather a promising technology being built ahead of demand for it and resulting in excess capacity driving down returns in that investment, and the builders lacking the financial resources to bridge that gap.So far, that's not what we see. Data centers are still seeing strong underlying demand and are often backed by companies with exceptionally good resources. We need to watch if either of these change.But for now, we think the AI CapEx cycle has much further to go.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today

Send us a textJoin Host Karen Ferguson to discover fun, family-friendly alternatives to celebrating Halloween! Have you been disturbed by the growing darkness associated with Halloween festivities? Are you re-thinking your normal activities this year? Would you simply like to try something new? Then check out this week's 5-Minute Parenting episode for unique ways to make the day fun and special for your family, without compromising your convictions. The choice to celebrate Halloween can be rather controversial, and I am not here to convince you to not participate. That's between you and God. But whether or not you're a fan of Halloween, you will be a fan of these fun, community building party ideas. Links to original sources:  5 Halloween Alternatives: https://childrensministry.com/five-halloween-alternatives/ Halloween Alternatives for your family: https://www.lifeway.com/en/articles/parenting-kids-halloween-alternatives Minno (Christian Content for Kids): https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=minno&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 Fruit Basket Upset Game - How To Play:Arrange your group in a circle with chairs (preferably without wheels or arm rests). Number the group 1 up to 7 depending on the size, you should have at least 3 people per number. Assign each number a fruitBanana, Apple, Grape, Cherry, Orange, Watermelon, LemonHave one person stand in the center and remove their chair. The center person yells any fruit or combination of fruits. The people with that fruit(s) have to get up and switch seats. The person in the center tries to steal one of their seats. Players may not keep the same seat. The person in the center can also yell “Fruit Basket Upset."  At that point everyone gets up and switches seats.How To Win:Elimination – where each person left in the center is eliminated then a new person is selected for the center and their chair is removed until you have 1 team left.Time – stop the game at a pre determined time (participants do not know when) The team (guys vs girls, old vs young) not in the center is the winner. Book 3 in the Questions for Kids picture book series is now available! Check out Guess Why God Made the Rainbow on Amazon or your favorite book retailer!

Our analysts Brian Nowak, Keith Weiss and Matt Bombassei break down the most important tech insights from Morgan Stanley's Spark Private Company Conference and industry shifts that will likely shape 2026 and beyond. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research. I'm joined today by Keith Weiss, Head of U.S. Software Research and Matt Bombassei from my team.Today we're going to talk about private companies and technology – and how they're showing us the direction of travel for disruptive technologies and emerging investment opportunities.It's Wednesday, October 22nd at 10am in New York.Keith and Matt, we just returned from Morgan Stanley's Spark Private Company Conference last week in Los Angeles. It had over 85 private tech companies, 150 plus investor firms. There were a lot of themes that were discussed across the entire tech space impacting a lot of different sectors, including energy, healthcare, financial services, and cybersecurity.Keith, what were some of the biggest takeaways you took away from Spark this year?Keith Weiss: I'd say just to start off with, the Spark Conference is one of my favorite conferences of the year. It's a more intimate conference where you really get to spend time with both the private company executives and founders, as well as investors from the VC community and public company investors. And the conversations are more broad ranging; they're more about the thematics in the industry. They're more long term in nature.So, it's not just a conversation about what's next quarter going to look like, or what data points are you drumming up. You're having these thoughtful conversations about what's going on in the industry and how that's going to impact business models, how it's going to impact innovation cycles, how it's going to impact pricing models, within these companies. So, it tends to be a very interesting conference for me to attend.So, for me, some of the key takeaways. Typically, when we're in these innovation cycles, it feels like everybody's rowing in the same direction. We all understand where the technology's heading, we're all understanding how it's going to be delivered, and it's a race to get there. And you're having a conversation about who's doing best in that race, who's best positioned, who's got a better motor in their race car, if you will.So, to me, one of the big takeaways was we don't have that agreement today, right? There's different players that are looking at this market evolution differently. On one side of the equation, the application vendors – and a lot of this debate is in SaaS based applications. They see SaaS based applications having a very big role in taking these models that are inherently in-determinative and making them to be more determinative and useful within an enterprise context.Bringing them the data that they need to get the job done and the right data; bringing them the context of the business process being solved; bringing the governance that's necessary to use in an enterprise environment. But most importantly, to make it effective and efficient for the large enterprise.On the other side of the equation, you have venture capital investors and more early-stage investors who are looking at this as a huge phase shift, right? This is going to fundamentally change how we build software, how we utilize software, and they worry about a deprecation of that SaaS application layer. They think the model itself is going to start to encompass, it's going to start to subsume a lot more of that application functionality, a lot more of that analytics. And they see a lot more disruption going forward.So that debate within the marketplace, that's something that's interesting to me. It's something that we don't typically see in these innovation cycles. So that's takeaway number one.Takeaway number two, we're still really early days, and that's a little bit implied in in the first statement; I definitely hear a lot of it when I talk to the end customer. When I talk to CIOs. This wasn't necessarily at Spark, but earlier in the week, I was at a CIO conference, there was 150 CIOs in the room. One of the gentlemen on stage asked a question. ‘Who in the room has a good understanding of what we're talking about when we mean Agentic AI, when we mean agentic computing within our enterprise.' Of the 150 CIOs, four raised their hands. Still very early days in understanding how this is going to evolve, how we're going to actually deliver these capabilities into the enterprise.And the last takeaway I would say is more excitement about the federal government becoming a better customer for software companies overall. People are more interested in new avenues into that federal government. There's been some very successful companies that have opened the door to getting into these federal government contracts without going through the primes, without doing the typical federal government procurement cycles.And that's very interesting to the startup community, which tends to move faster, which tends to drive on innovation versus relationship building; versus being in an existing kind of incumbent prime. So, I thought that opening was – it was pretty interesting as well.Brian Nowak: it sounds like it's still very early, there are a lot of different points of view and no real consensus as to where technologies could go next. However, one theme with an enterprise software – [it] does seem like cybersecurity has a little more of a unified view.So maybe walk us through what you learned from a cybersecurity perspective and what should we be focused on there?Keith Weiss: Yeah, absolutely. If there is a consensus, the consensus is that generative AI and these innovations and the fast pace of innovation is going to be a positive for cybersecurity spending, right? The reason being, there's three main factors that are driving that overall spending.One is expansion of surface area, right? Cybersecurity in one dimension, you can think of how much is there to be protected, right? And if we think about the major themes that we're talking about, we're going to be developing a lot more software, right? The code generation tools are improving software developer productivity. You have an expanding capability of what you can actually automate.We'll be building a lot more software. That software needs to be protected, right? We have new entities that are going to be operating inside of enterprises, and that's the agents. So, CIOs are thinking about this future state where you have tens, thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of agents operating in the environment, doing work on behalf of end users, but having permissions and having ability to execute business processes. How do we secure that side of the equation? We're talking about outside of just the four walls of the large enterprise, going into more operational technologies, being able to automate more of that work. That needs to be secured as well.So, an expanding surface area is definitely good for the cybersecurity budget. You can almost think of cybersecurity as a tax on that surface area. We generally think about it; somewhere between 4 and 6 percent of IT spend is going to be spent on overall security. So, that's one big driver.The second big driver is the elevated threat environment. So, while we're excited to get our hands on these extended capabilities of generative AI, the bad guys are already there, right? They're taking advantage of this. The sophistication, the volume and the velocity of these attacks is all increasing. That makes a harder job for the existing infrastructure to keep up, and it's going to likely necessitate more spending on cybersecurity to tackle these newer challenges; the newer dynamism within the cybersecurity threat appropriately. So, you're going to have to use generative AI to counter the generative AI.And then the last component of it; the last driver would be the regulatory environment. Regulatory tends to have some cybersecurity angles. If we think about it here, we're seeing it in terms of data governance is probably the big one. Where does this data go when it goes into the model? Are we putting the right controls around it? Do we have the right governance on it? So that's a big area of concern.A lot of complaining going on at the conference about the lack of consistency in that regulatory environment. All these different initiatives coming up from the state – really creates a challenging environment to navigate. But that's all good-ness for cybersecurity vendors that can help you get into compliance with these new regulations that are coming up. So overall, a lot of positivity around cybersecurity spending and startups definitely look to take advantage of that.Brian Nowak: Matt, so Keith says there's lack of consensus and boats being rode in every direction on what should be adopted first. And only 3 percent of CIOs know what agentic AI means. What did you learn about early signal on adoption? And some of the barriers to adoption? And hurdles that companies are talking about that they need to overcome to really adopt some of these new tools?Matt Bombassei: Yeah. Well, to Keith's point, it is really early, right? And that was a consistent theme that we heard from our companies at the conference. They are seeing early signs of cost efficiency, making employees more productive as opposed to maybe broad scale layoffs. But it's the deployment of these model technologies into specific sub-verticals – so accounting, legal engineering – where that adoption is driving greater efficiency within the organization.These companies are also adopting models that are smaller and a bit more fine tuned to their specific work product. And so that comes at a lower cost. We heard companies talking about costs at 1/50 of the cost of the broader foundational models when they're deploying it within the organization. And so, cost efficiency is something that we're seeing.At the same time, to speak to how early it is, one of the biggest hurdles here is change management and actually adoption. Getting people to use these products, getting them to learn the new technologies, that is a big hurdle. You know, you can lead a horse to water, you can't make it drink, right? And so, getting people to actually deploy these technologies is something that organizations are thinking through. How do we approach [it]?Brian Nowak: And you make an autonomous car drive? I know you've been doing a lot of work on autonomous driving more broadly. There were some autonomous driving and autonomous driving technology companies at Spark. What were your takeaways on autonomous driving from last week?Matt Bombassei: Yeah, well, not only can you make an autonomous car drive, you can make a truck drive and a bunch of other physical equipment. I think that was one of the takeaways here was that these neural nets that are powering autonomous vehicles are actually becoming much more generalizable. The integration of the transformer architecture into these neural nets is allowing them to take the context from one sub-vertical and deploy it in another vertical.So, we heard that 80 to 90 percent of the software, the underlying neural net, is applicable across these verticals. So, think applicable from autonomous ride sharing to autonomous trucking, right? What that means from our point of view is that it's important to get the scale of total miles driven – to establish that kind of safety hurdle if you're these companies.But also, don't necessarily think of these companies as defined by the vertical that they're operating in. If these models truly are generalizable, a company that's successful and scaled and autonomous ride hailing can switch or navigate verticals to also become successful potentially in trucking and other industries as well. So, the generalization of these models is particularly interesting for scale, and long-term market position for these companies.Brian Nowak: It's fascinating. Well, from consumer and enterprise adoption, the future of agentic computing and autonomous driving, there will be a lot more themes we all have to stay on top of. Keith, Matt, thanks so much for taking the time today.Keith Weiss: Great speaking with you Brian.Matt Bombassei: Thanks for having us.Brian Nowak: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of The Smart Real Estate Coach Podcast, I sit down with Lon Welsh, founder and CEO of Your Castle Real Estate and Ironton Capital, to unpack how investors can navigate today's economic climate with data, discipline, and diversification.   Lon brings more than two decades of experience in commercial and residential real estate and now manages nearly $100 million in private funds through Ironton Capital. We talk about how market trends are shifting across regions, how private income funds compare to active investing, and why investor sentiment is near decade lows despite strong fundamentals.   Lon also shares how his team is using AI and data analytics to gain an edge in decision-making, plus what investors should expect heading into 2025 and beyond.    If you're ready to sharpen your macro understanding and learn how to balance active vs. passive investing, this episode will help you make smarter, calmer financial decisions in any market cycle.   Key Talking Points of the Episode   00:00 Introduction 01:20 Who is Lon Welsh? 02:45 National housing slowdown: why the West and Southeast are softening faster 04:05 Comparing private funds vs. individual investing: pros, cons, and liquidity 05:17 Why investor sentiment is at a decade low and how media fear feeds it 06:35 Explaining Ironton's Short-Term and Medium-Term funds 08:26 The ideal investor profile: active landlords, busy professionals, and developers 09:29 How developers use Ironton's funds to earn while waiting on permits 13:16 The National Diversified Fund: balancing new builds with value-add multifamily 14:20 Using AI for analytics, underwriting, and even writing Lon's 14th book 15:32 How Lon tracks national real estate trends quarterly and why it matters 17:30 The regional outlook for 2025: where growth and appreciation are heading 18:56 How to get in touch with Lon and his team 19:54 Alternatives & diversification: making institutional-grade investing accessible 20:45 How the JOBS Act opened opportunities for accredited investors   Quotables   “Consumer sentiment right now is the lowest it's been in a decade, even though the economy is healthier than people think.”   “Don't panic. The media thrives on fear but markets reward patience and perspective.”   “At each phase of the market cycle, there's a different strategy that works best. Listen to the market, don't fight it.”   Links   Ironton Capital https://irontoncapital.com   FREE Guide to Passive Diversified Real Estate Investing https://irontoncapital.com/smartrecoach   Lon Welsh lonwelsh@irontoncapital.com   QLS 4.0 - Use coupon code for 50% off https://smartrealestatecoach.com/qls Coupon code: pod   Apprentice Program https://3paydaysapprentice.com Coupon code: Podcast   Masterclass https://smartrealestatecoach.com/masterspodcast   Wicked Smart Books https://wickedsmartbooks.com/podcast   Strategy Session https://smartrealestatecoach.com/actionpodcast   Partners https://smartrealestatecoach.com/podcastresources

In this week's livestream, Tom begins with commentary on attorney Aaron Siri's recent Senate testimony—specifically addressing the challenges of publishing data from vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies, and how the underlying assumptions in the infectious disease model lead us astray.Tom then reads Chapter 4: “Water” from his upcoming booklet on New Biology Principles. This chapter explores why structured water is the foundation of life, and how illness and healing can be understood as disruptions or restorations in the body's crystalline water structures.Q&A topics included: – Rabies: myth, transmission claims, and animal observations – Is coconut water safe for those undergoing chemo? – Alternatives to medical school for aspiring healers – Understanding Meniere's disease and chronic nerve inflammation – ALS, EMFs, and healing the water in our tissues – Necrotizing fasciitis and the bacterial model of infection – The role of tissue remodeling in detox and healingSupport the showWebsites:https://drtomcowan.com/https://www.drcowansgarden.com/https://newbiologyclinic.com/https://newbiologycurriculum.com/Instagram: @TalkinTurkeywithTomFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/DrTomCowan/Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/CivTSuEjw6Qp/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzxdc2o0Q_XZIPwo07XCrNg

If you're still pretending 60/40 will solve everything, this episode is your wake-up call. I brought back the Queen of Alts, Shana Orczyk Sissel, to rip through the reality of alternatives: what works, what doesn't, where the real yield is coming from, and the cost you actually pay for it—hint: liquidity, not magic. We get straight to it. No fluff. No sales pitch. Just the truth. We break down why alts are finally everywhere—regulatory changes, active ETFs, and the rise of interval funds—and why access is easier but the learning curve is still real. Shana explains the tradeoffs in plain English: higher income often means less liquidity, leverage multiplies both gains and pain, and “complex” doesn't automatically mean “risky.” Complexity just means do the work. This is a masterclass in due diligence. We walk through what to ask a manager, how to sniff out conflicts, why structure and third-party vendors matter, and how to judge a product beyond marketing sheets. We also hit the advisor problem: most fear is just lack of information. Your job is to learn what your clients don't have time to learn. Period. Who are alts for? Shana's take: everyone, but not every alt is for everyone. There's a spectrum—from Bitcoin and venture to sober, income-producing private credit. Your job is matching goals, risk, taxes, and liquidity. We close with a simple portfolio checklist so you can stop guessing and start allocating with intent. Watch the full conversation on YouTube: https://youtu.be/coZJKOUwaFsAs always we ask you to comment, DM, whatever it takes to have a conversation to help you take the next step in your journey, reach out on any platform!Twitter, FaceBook, Instagram, Tiktok, LinkedinDISCLOSURE: Awards and rankings by third parties are not indicative of future performance or client investment success. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies carry profit/loss potential and cannot eliminate investment risks. Information discussed may not reflect current positions/recommendations. While believed accurate, Black Mammoth does not guarantee information accuracy. This broadcast is not a solicitation for securities transactions or personalized investment advice. Tax/estate planning information is general - consult professionals for specific situations. Full disclosures at www.blackmammoth.com.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we're talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It's Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you've been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it's complicated. Let's start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there's still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what's going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations. First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it's clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven't yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren't yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn't help either. It's all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don't lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

What happens when you combine respect, mutuality, self determination, potential for change, genuine human relationships, and healing environments? Welcome to The Wildflower Alliance! In the words of Earl Miller, “it's so basic that people think it's profound.”The Wildflower Alliance supports healing and empowerment for the broader community and people who have been impacted by psychiatric diagnosis, trauma, extreme states, homelessness, problems with substances and other life-interrupting challenges. They do this through peer to peer support and genuine human relationships, alternative healing practices, learning opportunities, and advocacy.In this episode, Earl Miller, Director of Community Support and Matty Hollander, Hampden coordinator, come on the podcast to discuss their journey with this project. They share about the Alternatives to Suicide support group, the Peer Support Line, the Bowen center, the importance of autonomy and agency, the poverty industrial complex, and “a return to community that is accountable to you, that holds value in your existence. If you believe in community - that includes everyone.”Bio: Earl Miller's life and work are deeply shaped by his lived experience navigating the psychiatric and foster care systems from the age of 12, and facing homelessness, hospitalization, and trauma—part of which was featured in The New York Times Magazine in December 2024. Since joining the Wildflower Alliance in 2011, he has channeled his resilience into advocacy, community building, and creative expression as a storyteller, musician, and poet with several albums to his name. A proud father of two, Earl has held roles at the Center for Human Development and the Massachusetts Department of Mental Health, and served as the inaugural Director of Amherst's Community Responders for Equity, Safety, and Service, where he helped establish a municipal alternative to traditional policing. He now serves as Director of Community Supports at the Wildflower Alliance, championing anti-racist, humane, holistic, and community-based responses to emotional distress.Bio: Mathew Hollander serves as the Hampden Coordinator for the Wildflower Alliance, a grassroots peer support organization. He is a Northampton-based artist whose practice includes intricate ink drawings and mixed media sculptures. He is a longtime performer and member of the punk/hardcore music scene in the greater Boston area.

In this conversation, Logan Nelson discusses the challenges small businesses face in securing funding, the importance of maintaining a positive mindset, and the value of collaboration and education in business. He emphasizes the difficulties of traditional bank loans and the pitfalls of merchant cash advances, while also sharing insights on problem-solving and the significance of being open to learning from mistakes. The conversation concludes with ways to connect with Logan and his business.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true ‘white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a “mini-mastermind” with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming “Retreat”, either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas “Big H Ranch”? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buying opportunity, if it arrives. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Many photographers lose inquiries after sending pricing. In this episode, Meredith and her husband discuss how to filter out unqualified leads before they contact you — without sounding rude. They share practical SEO and website strategies like using autoresponders, pricing placement, and smart contact-form questions to attract clients who value your work (and your time).⏱️ Timestamps[0:00] Introduction[0:24] The listener's question: filtering out low-budget inquiries[1:00] SEO isn't just rankings — it's attracting the right clients[2:30] Reframing “bad” leads as a timing issue[3:00] The importance of fast (but friendly) responses[4:00] How to write a personable autoresponder[6:00] Why humor and warmth make you memorable[7:00] Where to mention pricing without sounding rude[8:45] Using dropdowns and checkboxes in your contact form[10:00] Alternatives to listing price ranges[11:15] Keeping unqualified leads for future offers[13:00] Why “starting at” pricing works best[14:10] Managing expectations and emotional buying behavior CONTACTLeave Feedback or Send us your questions:https://forms.gle/bqxbwDWBySoiUYxL7 ---

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how youth unemployment will impact future growth and stability across China, India, and Indonesia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – Asia's young workforce is facing a significant challenge. How a soft labor market will shape everything from consumer demand to social stability and long-term growth. It's Tuesday, October 14th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. Across Asia, a concerning trend is emerging. The region's younger generations face mounting challenges in the job market. Asia's youth unemployment averages 16 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. rate of 10.5 percent. Youth unemployment rates are running two to three times higher than headline unemployment rates. The underlying situation is even weaker than what is represented by [the] unemployment rate. And within Asia, the challenge is most acute in China, India, and Indonesia, the three most populous economies. Youth unemployment rates for these three economies are running close to double, as compared to other economies in Asia. Now let's take a closer look at China. The urban youth unemployment rate, i.e. for 16–24-year-olds, has steadily increased since 2019. What's driving this rise in unemployment? A mismatch in labor demand and supply. The number of university graduates surged 40 percent over the last five years to close to 12 million. But economy-wide employment has declined by 20 million over the same period. Entry-level wages are sluggish, and automation plus subdued services growth mean fewer opportunities for newer entrants. Turning to India, their unemployment rate is the highest in the region at 17.6 percent. Employment creation has been subdued. And on top of it, India also faces another issue: underemployment. Post-COVID, primary sector – i.e. farming and mining – employment rose by 50 million, reaching a 17-year high. Note that these jobs are relatively low productivity jobs. And this is explained by the fact that [the] primary sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP but it employs about 40 percent of the workforce. That's a sign of COVID-induced underemployment. How fast must growth be to tackle the unemployment challenge? In our base case, India's GDP will grow at an average of 6.5 percent over the coming decade – and this will mean that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies globally. But this pace of growth will not be sufficient to generate enough jobs. To keep [the] unemployment rate stable, India needs an average GDP growth of close to 7.5 percent; and to address underemployment, the required run rate in GDP growth must be even higher at 12 percent. Shifting to Indonesia, its youth unemployment rate is the second highest in the region. Moreover, close to 60 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. And many of these jobs pay below minimum wage. Similar to India, both these trends signal underemployment. The key reason behind this challenge is weak investment growth. Indonesia's investment-to-GDP ratio has dropped meaningfully over the last five years. So, what's the way forward? For China, shifting towards consumption and services could reduce labor market mismatches. And for India and Indonesia, boosting investment is key. India in particular needs much stronger growth in its industrial and exports sectors. If reforms fall short, policy makers may need to fall back on increasing social welfare spending to manage social stability risks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee are live from the CAIS Alternatives Conference in Beverly Hills to discuss the market, alt investments and more. Plus, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson and Oak Hill Advisors CEO Glenn August joins us live with their take.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys discuss what's driving unprecedented consolidation for asset and wealth management firms.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We're going to unpack today what's driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.It's Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What's your outlook for the asset management industry?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that's driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you're looking at me a little dazed on what's solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.So that's the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what's your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that's larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically – deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you're talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint.Betsy Graseck: They're looking to consolidate their providers?Michael Cyprys: Correct.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: They're looking to work with fewer asset managers.Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.And also, I'd point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that's going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that bar is rising…Betsy Graseck: Mm. Michael Cyprys: And firms are thinking about how to compete effectively as the landscape evolves. And look, this is all in the context of already a lot of challenges and changes happening as you think about evolving client needs. The rising cost of doing business, whether it's investing for growth or even harnessing AI, and that's all pressuring profitability. We think this is particularly a challenge for those mid-size money managers that are multi-asset, multi-liquid and global. Those with, call it, [$]0.5 trillion to [$]2 trillion in size, making them more likely to pursue consolidation, opportunities to bolster their capabilities and scale while also generating cost efficiencies.Betsy Graseck: So now looking forward, what type of deals do you expect and how does it differ from past years?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, a few things are different than past years. First is that the deal activity is encompassing many forms of partnership. And we think that this experimentation around partnership will only accelerate. That allows, for example, for private market managers to access retail distribution without owning the end infrastructure and the last mile to the customer. It also allows traditional managers to provide their retail customers with access to high quality private market strategies from well-known and branded firms.Second is we see a broadening out of the types of acquisitions themselves when we talk about M&A, right? So, three types of deals. First are deals within the same vertical or intersector. So, think about this as an asset manager buying another asset manager to acquire capabilities, to gain cost synergies or bolster distribution.Second type of deals that we're seeing are ones that expand beyond one's own vertical. So intersector deals. So, asset management combining with wealth or insurance, for example, where firms would seek to own a larger, greater portion of the overall value chain. And so, these firms are getting closer to that end client. For example, an asset manager getting closer to that end customer. And the third type being financial sponsor deals where a sponsor is investing either as an in an asset or a wealth manager.Now you didn't ask me around the historical outcomes of M&A. But I would say that the historical outcomes have been mixed in the asset management space. But here we think that the opportunity ahead is so bright that we think firms will find ways to navigate and pursue strategic activity. But it does require addressing some of the culture and integration challenges that have plagued some of the deals in the past.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: So, Betsy, what do you see as the key drivers of consolidation in wealth management?Betsy Graseck: There's several. From the wealth manager side, number one is an aging population of advisor and advisor-owners, and the need to address succession and how to best serve their clients when passing on their book of business. So, we've got succession issues as the number one driver. But additionally, the need for scale is clearly getting higher and higher – given the costs of IT infrastructure rising, the needs to be able to leverage AI effectively and to manage your cyber risk effectively. These are just some of the drivers of desire to merge from the wealth manager perspective.Second. We have an increasing buying pool. If you just look at the large cap banks, for example. Significant amount of excess capital. Could we see some of that excess capital be put to work in the wealth management industry? To me, that would make sense. Why? Because wealth management is one of the best, if not the best financial institution service for shareholders. It is a high ROE business. It also is a business that commands a high multiple in the stock market.So, we would not be surprised to see activity there over the course of the next several years. So, Mike, thanks for joining me on the show today.Michael Cyprys: Thanks, Betsy. Always a pleasure.Betsy Graseck: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, I speak with Jay Rajamony, Director of Alternatives at Man Numeric.Jay has been with the firm since 2004, giving him a front-row seat to the evolution of quant equity: from simple factor models and broad signals to today's world of alternative data, model ensembles, and human-machine collaboration.We start with the history: what's changed in quant over the last two decades, why the 2007 quant quake still matters, and how the definition of “alpha” has shifted alongside new tools and data.From there, we explore the interplay between factors and macro regimes, how sparse datasets are reshaping the research process, and what it means to manage risk in a world where your models don't always line up with reality.Jay also offers a compelling perspective on how modern quant investing isn't just about signal breadth anymore—it's about firm breadth, organizational design, and knowing when to lean in and override the machine.Please enjoy my conversation with Jay Rajamony.

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.