Podcasts about Alternatives

This week on The Cigar Authority, we're talking premium cigar brands vs their friendly value knockoff cigar brand! Cigar prices keep climbing but we're here to help you find the perfect alternative lower priced cigars for the biggest names! We will smoke Montecristo Classic Toro in the first hour. Join Mr. Jonathan, David Garofalo and Ed Sullivan as we light up cigars and talk about them. The Cigar Authority is a member of the United Podcast Network and is recorded live in front of a studio audience at Studio 21 Podcast Cafe upstairs at Two Guys Smoke Shop in Salem, NH.

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

In this episode of The Distribution, Brandon Sedloff sits down with Phil Huber to unpack the evolution of private markets and their growing role in private wealth portfolios. Phil shares his path from a family RIA to leading portfolio solutions at Cliffwater, and explains why alternatives are shifting from a niche allocation to a core portfolio decision. The conversation explores how interval funds, multi-manager strategies, and improved liquidity frameworks are reshaping access to private equity and private credit for advisors. Along the way, Phil offers a clear, practical lens on education, structure, and risk management in an increasingly complex alternatives landscape. They discuss: Phil's career journey from wealth management to asset management and his focus on alternatives Why private markets are becoming an active allocation decision rather than an institutional afterthought How interval funds work, including liquidity mechanics, eligibility, and portfolio fit The role of multi manager and co investment strategies in diversification and fee efficiency What advisors and CIOs look for when evaluating private market products for client portfolios Links: Phil on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-huber/ Cliffwater - https://cliffwater.com/ Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:04:32) - Phil Huber's early career and family influence (00:10:52) - Transition to Cliffwater and focus on alternatives (00:12:06) - Understanding private markets and co-investments (00:25:57) - Cliffwater's funds and direct lending strategy (00:28:01) - Cliffwater's view on direct lending (00:30:28) - Challenges of traditional private market investments (00:33:14) - Advantages of interval funds (00:34:32) - Liquidity management in interval funds (00:41:39) - Multi-manager vs. single manager strategies (00:45:09) - Real assets and interval funds (00:48:18) - Daily beta adjustments for private assets (00:50:01) - Educating advisors and clients (00:53:56) - Future trends in private markets (00:56:07) - Conclusion and final thoughts

All eyes have been on President Trump's address at the World Economic Forum. Michael Zezas, our Deputy Global Head of Research, and Ariana Salvatore, our Head of Public Policy Research, talk about potential implications for policy and the U.S. outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing our takeaways from President Trump's speech in Davos and what we think it means for investors. It's Wednesday, January 21st at 1pm in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, over the last couple of weeks, there's been a lot of news about policy proposals coming out of the U.S. and from President Trump around affordability, as well as some geopolitical events around the U.S. relationship with Europe. And investors really started looking towards President Trump's speech at Davos, which he gave earlier today, as a potential vehicle to learn more about what these things would actually mean and what it might mean for the economic outlook and markets. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. I think specifically investors were looking for the President to focus on affordability proposals pertaining to housing and some commentary around Greenland. Remember last weekend, President Trump proposed a 10 percent tariff on some EU countries related to this topic specifically. So obviously that did feature in his speech. What did we learn and what do you think are the most important things for markets to know? Michael Zezas: So, maybe the most important headline we got was President Trump appearing to take off the table the use of force when it comes to an attempt to acquire Greenland. And that would seem to, therefore, take off the table the idea of a broader rupture in the U.S.-EU relationship. Both the security relationship vis-a-vis NATO, as well as the economic relationship which could have been ruptured with higher tariffs on both sides, anti coercion measures around trade, and that would be of obvious economic importance. Europe is obviously a major importer of U.S. goods. Not as big as Canada or Mexico, but still pretty significant. So, anything that would've created higher barriers between the two would've had meaningful economic consequences for the U.S. outlook. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. And we've been saying that the bilateral trade framework agreement between the U.S. and the EU is actually pretty tenuous in nature, right? So, this doesn't yet have formal backing from the European Parliament. They, in fact, delayed a vote on this exact deal, kind of on the back of these Greenland headlines. So how are we thinking about, you know, what's been priced into markets and maybe what this could mean for something like the dollar going forward? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so it's important to point out that we're not out of the woods yet in terms of potential trade escalation on both sides around the Greenland issue. However, it seems like that bigger tail problem of a decoupling might have gone away. And so, what you saw in markets so far today was that some of the actions over the past, kind of, 24-48 hours with equity market weakness. You know, the S&P was down about 2 percent yesterday. The dollar was weaker. It seemed like more term premium was being baked into the U.S. Treasury market. A lot of that appears to be unwinding today. Said more simply, the idea of a kind of riskier investment environment for the U.S. is getting priced out. At least today, it's getting priced out. And it all makes sense when you think about if there was less of a relationship between the U.S. and Europe, there would be less demand for U.S. dollar holdings overseas. And that's the type of thing that should manifest in a weaker dollar and higher term premia, steeper yield curves for U.S. Treasuries. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, and that dovetails really nicely with the work that we just put out with the FX team, kind of highlighting some of the policy factors as push factors for countries to move away from the dollar. We think that's happening marginally. We think it's not really a risk in the immediate term, but some of these policy drivers can actually create dollar weakness over the medium to longer term. Michael Zezas: Of course, to the extent that we get news that this is a head fake and that tensions are re-escalating, you'd expect some of those trades to start pushing markets back in the other direction again. Now, President Trump also talked quite a bit about domestic policy, largely about affordability, and some of the policy proposals he's put forward over the last couple of weeks. Was there any new details that you heard that you think are meaningful for investors? Ariana Salvatore: So, the short version is nothing really new, and the reality is that a lot of housing policy in particular is actually out of the hands of the executive. And even if you do see congressional action here, it's likely to be marginal. A lot of housing policy is done at the state level, and even bipartisan efforts to address both the demand and the supply sides of the equation have faced some resistance in Congress. That doesn't mean they can't reemerge. But we would need to see a very large decline in the mortgage rate to get noticeable effects on economic indicators like GDP, inflation and employment. And in terms of what this means for the housing outlook, the programs talked about so far should push sales marginally higher but have little impact on our expectations for our home prices. Now it's important to note that the president didn't spend that much time of the speech talking about housing affordability proposals, as was telegraphed ahead of time. And since that, the head of the NEC Kevin Hassett has said they plan to announce more details on housing in the coming days. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, on the two pieces here that investors have really focused on, which are capping institutional ownership of single-family homes and potentially capping interest rates on credit cards, it sounded like the president talked about he would go to Congress for authorization on those things.Is that right? And if so, how plausible is it that Congress could actually deliver those authorities? Ariana Salvatore: So, here's where I think it's really critical to understand the role that Congress has to play in all of these policy initiatives. So, there are not only political constraints, but there are also procedural ones. If we were to see Republicans kind of push for this 10 percent cap, for example, that likely would have to go through the reconciliation process. And that process, as we know, comes with a number of limitations because something like a 10 percent cap wouldn't have much of an impact on the federal budget in terms of revenues or outlays. We think it's most likely not going to be permissible under that framework. So, understanding that the first filter here is Congress, and the second filter is these procedural limitations that exist in and of themselves is really important context for understanding the president's proposals on housing.Michael Zezas: So, is it fair to say the starting point is that we think Congress is unlikely to act on these things? And what would you have to see that might make you think differently? Ariana Salvatore: I think where we're looking for signals from Republican leadership in Congress – because as of right now, it's been our thinking that a second reconciliation bill ahead of the midterm elections is not feasible. It's too difficult politically, it takes a lot of time, but if you see enough of a push from the president, we do think that can start to become feasible. Again, we have to keep in mind these procedural limitations and where the rest of the party falls on these issues. But I think they're possible if the administration pushes hard enough for them.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, even though we don't think it's likely, we obviously want to prepare in case that happens. When it comes to housing, it seems like our team has said institutional ownership of single-family housing is quite low, 1 percent or less. And so, restrictions there wouldn't necessarily change the game on home prices. What about the 10 percent cap on credit card interests? What are the broader ramifications that our colleagues see? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so I'd say generally speaking, when it comes to consumer credit affordability policies, our strategists think that these could actually translate to a benefit for consumer ABS performance because they tend to be a tailwind for a consumer that's struggled with rising delinquencies and defaults post-COVID, right? However, there are some specific proposals like this cap on credit cards, and that's likely going to have a negative consequence because it's going to limit credit access for consumers, especially for those carrying a balance. So, probably a little bit counterintuitive to the overall affordability agenda that the administration's trying to go for. Michael Zezas: So, lots of interesting stuff coming out of the speech. Lots of things we have to track over the next few weeks and months. It certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be a boring year two of the Trump term for investors. Ariana Salvatore: Certainly not, and not for us either. Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for finding the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Pascal Wagner interviews Tony Davidow to unpack how institutional investors are thinking about private markets heading into 2026. Tony explains why recent headlines around private credit defaults are often misunderstood, breaking down the difference between CLOs, direct lending, and commercial real estate debt—and why he sees CRE debt, asset-based finance, and secondaries as early-cycle opportunities. The discussion dives into illiquidity as a feature (not a flaw), how institutions size long-term “patient capital,” and why diversified private market funds often outperform single-deal investing over time. Tony also shares his highest-conviction themes for 2026, including secondaries, industrial and multifamily real estate, and infrastructure tied to reshoring, digitization, and demographic shifts. Tony DavidowCurrent role: President, Alternatives, Franklin TempletonBased in: United StatesSay hi to them at: https://www.franklintempleton.com/ | LinkedIn Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a textEpisode 3 of Inside the Family Office: Live Investor PanelReal family office practitioners and allocators share how they structure deals, protect families, and think about wealth:  John, who works inside a single family office's trust company, explains how they custody over $70B in assets with a focus on alternative assets inside self-directed IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, and solo 401(k)s. He walks through real examples of using these vehicles to buy property and earn profits with zero tax, and why he's obsessed with Roth structures for families and principals. John also touches on recent policy interest in alternatives within retirement plans and the explosive growth in investors seeking non-correlated assets. Dr. Cook closes with her own experience allocating Roth capital into crypto and other alternatives.

(00:00) — Welcome and guest credentials: Dr. Gray introduces Dr. Christine Crispin and frames the workshop.(02:10) — Redefining “premed”: Shift from “I'm going to med school” to ongoing career exploration.(05:40) — First‑year success: Why freshman year should prioritize academics and campus adjustment.(08:45) — Dip, don't dive: A toe‑dip into service or shadowing without hurting grades.(12:00) — Do first‑years need advising?: One early meeting to avoid wrong turns and set expectations.(13:40) — Map your courses to MCAT: Align chem/bio/phys/biochem sequencing with your test timeline.(14:58) — Planning the first summer: Add clinical, service, research, or EMT/MA training.(18:05) — Getting certified as an MA: Capier mention and how CCMA can open clinical roles.(19:53) — Work hours that work: Balance school first; per diem and single weekly shifts count.(22:05) — Small hours, big totals: Why 2–4 weekly hours compound into strong experience.(23:40) — Non‑clinical options and impact: Alternatives when sites won't take volunteers and creating your own service.(26:10) — Research reality check: Useful skills, not the centerpiece unless MD‑PhD.(28:10) — Why clinical and shadowing matter: Test fit for patient care and physician responsibilities.(31:46) — What counts as clinical: Direct patient interaction vs adjacent roles that don't qualify.(32:43) — Shadowing continuity: Avoid one‑and‑done; keep modest, ongoing exposure.(34:50) — Sophomore advising focus: Decide timeline, identify gaps, and meet each semester.(36:34) — Recovering from GPA dips: Diagnose causes, seek help, and build an upward trend.(39:13) — Summer before junior year: MCAT study or rinse‑and‑repeat on experiences.(40:10) — The gap year decision: Experiences, GPA trajectory, goals, and bandwidth.(43:23) — Readiness check: Confirm hours, recency, MCAT timing, and letters before applying.(45:58) — MCAT score myths: Why you don't need a 520 and sane score ranges.(48:45) — Letters of rec strategy: Cultivate relationships early; ask for strong letters in spring.(52:01) — Committee letters cautions: Consider expectations but watch harmful timing delays.(53:38) — Storing and QA'ing letters: Using a letter service to reduce technical errors.(54:36) — When advising crosses lines: Schools pre‑screening letters and why that's problematic.(55:24) — Activities recap and risk: Consistency across core experiences and avoiding “late.”(56:48) — Rolling admissions timing: Complete files earlier to lower risk of being overlooked.(59:09) — Not day‑one or bust: Early enough beats first‑minute submission.(01:00:10) — Strong apps are reflective: Authentic, integrated stories over forced themes.What makes a “successful premed” isn't a checklist—it's an exploration mindset. Dr. Ryan Gray and Dr. Christine Crispin break down a realistic path from freshman year through application season. First year, be a college student: master study habits, time management, and campus life. Then add experiences gradually—a toe‑dip into service or shadowing—without sacrificing grades. Map your courses to the MCAT at your institution, and use advising sparingly but strategically to avoid wrong turns. Learn how small, consistent hours in clinical work, non‑clinical service, and shadowing compound over time and why research is valuable but not required unless you're MD‑PhD bound. They clarify what truly counts as clinical, how to choose non‑clinical service when options are limited, and why reflection and authenticity—not themes and checkboxes—elevate your application. You'll also hear how to decide on a gap year, the real risk of applying later in a rolling admissions process, and a practical plan for letters of recommendation, including committee letter pitfalls. This conversation replaces pressure with...

Children remember dying in past lives. Researchers verify they happened. 3,000 cases. 40 years of data. This is what Dr. Stevenson discovered... Reincarnation?

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why recent U.S. government measures won't change much the outlook for mortgage rates, home prices and sales this year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Jim Egan, I see you sitting across from me wearing a quarter zip. As old things become new again, my teenager would think that is trendy. James Egan: I think this is one of, if not the first, times in my life that a teenager has thought I was trendy, including back when I was a teenager. Jay Bacow: Well, as captain of the chess team in high school, I was never trendy. But Jim… Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, we're here to talk about some of the programs that are being announced and their implications for the mortgage and U.S. housing markets. It's Tuesday, January 20th at 10am in New York. Now, Jay, there have been a lot of announcements from this administration. Some of them focused on affordability, some of them focused on the mortgage market, some of them focused on the housing market. But I think one of them that had the biggest impact, at least in terms of trading sessions immediately following, was a $200 billion buy program from the GSEs. Can you talk to us a little bit about that program? Jay Bacow: Sure. As you mentioned, President Trump announced that there would be a $200 billion purchase of mortgages, which later was confirmed by FHFA director Bill Pulte, to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie. Now, we would highlight putting this $200 billion number in context. The market was probably expecting the GSEs to buy about a hundred billion dollars of mortgages this year. So, this is maybe an incremental a hundred billion dollars more. The mortgage market round numbers is a $10 trillion market, so in the scope of the size of the market, it's not huge. However, we're only forecasting about [$]175 billion of growth in the mortgage market this year, so this is the GSEs buying more than net issuance. It's also similar in size to the Fed balance sheet runoff, which is something that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant mentioned in his comments last week. And so, the initial impact of this announcement was reasonably meaningful. Mortgage spreads tightened about 15 basis points and headline mortgage rates rallied to below 6 precent for the first time since 2022 on some mortgage measures. James Egan: Alright, so we had a 15 basis point rally almost immediately upon announcement of this program. That took us, I believe, through your bull case for agency mortgages in our 2026 outlook. So, what's next here? Jay Bacow: Well, we have a lot of questions about what is next. There's a lot of things that we're still waiting information on. But we think the initial move has sort of been fully priced in. We don't know the pace of the buying. We don't know if the purchases are going to be outright – like the Fed's purchase programs were. Or purchased and hedging the duration – like historically, the GSEs portfolios have been managed. We don't know how the $200 billion of mortgages will be funded. The way we're kind of thinking about this is if the program is just – and this is a podcast, not a video cast but I'm putting air quotes around just – $200 billion, it is probably priced in and then maybe and then some. However, if the purchases are front loaded or the purchases are increased, or maybe this purchase program indicates possible changes to the composition of the Fed's balance sheet, then there could be further moves in spreads and in mortgage rates.But Jim, what does this mean to the mortgage market writ large? James Egan: Right. So, when we think about what you're talking about, a 15 basis point move in mortgage rates, and we take that into the housing market, the first order implication is on affordability. And this is a move in the right direction, but it is small from a magnitude perspective. You mentioned mortgage rates getting below 6 percent for the first time since 2022. When we think about this in the context of our expectations for 2026, we already had the mortgage rate getting to about 5.75 in the back half of this year. This would take that forecast down to about 5.6 percent. That has a very modest upward implication for our purchase volume forecast, but I want to emphasize the modest piece. We're talking about [$]4.23 million was our original existing home sales forecast. This could take it to [$] 4.25 [million], maybe as high as [$]4.3 [million] with some media effect layered in. But any growth in demand, when we think about the home price side of the equation, we think we'll be met with additional listings. So, it really doesn't change our home price forecast for 2026, which was plus 2 percent. So very modest, slightly upward risk to some of our forecasts. And as we've been saying, when we think about U.S. housing in 2026, the risk to our modest growth forecasts, 3 percent growth in sales, 2 percent growth in home prices. The risk has always been to the upside. That could be because demand responds more to a 5 percent handle in mortgage rates than we're expecting. Or because you get more and more of these programs from the administration. So, on that note, Jay, what else do we think can be done here? Jay Bacow: I mean, there are a lot of potential things that could be done, which could be helpful on the margin or not, depending on how far they are willing to think about the possibilities. Some of the easier changes to make would be changes to the loan level pricing adjustments and the guaranteed fees, and mortgage insurance premiums, which would lower the cost in the roughly 10 to 15 basis points. There are some other changes that could be put through which we think from a legal side which would be much more difficult to make retroactive. That would be either allowing you to take your mortgage with you to the next house, which is what we call portability. Or allowing you to transfer your mortgage to the new home buyer, which is what we call assumability. We think it's extremely difficult to make that retroactive, but that could have some larger impacts, if that were to go through. Now, Jim, speaking of other impacts, mortgages spreads have tightened 15 basis points. What does that do to some of the other sectors that you cover? James Egan: Right. We do think there is a portfolio channel effect here that could be good for risk assets broader than just the agency mortgage space, even though that is clearly the primary impact of that $200 billion buying program. Securitized credit, we think is one of the clear beneficiaries of that tightening, given the relationships it has to agency mortgages. The non-QM mortgage market in particular – one that we're looking at for positive tailwinds as a result of this. Jay Bacow: All right, so we got a big announcement. We got a pretty quick market move after that, and now we're waiting to see what the next steps are. Likely going to have a marginal impact on housing activity, but we got to keep our ears and our eyes open to see what else might come. Jim, always great talking to you. James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.*** Disclaimer ***James Egan: It's a shame it's not a video podcast. What a great cardigan.

In this episode, I dive into how to handle your glucose test during pregnancy. From alternatives to the traditional sugar-loaded drink to what I actually did for myself. I share exactly how to advocate for yourself, feel empowered, and support your blood sugar before and after your test. Ways to work with Corinne: Join the Mind Your Hormones Method, HERE! (Use code PODCAST for 10% off!!)Mentioned in this episode:Fresh Test (Glucose Test Alternative)Restore PCOS Fertility Program (Formerly Balance Your Blood Sugar)181. What to look for in a PRENATAL, what to AVOID & when to start taking one!FREE TRAINING! How to build a hormone-healthy, blood-sugar-balancing meal! (this is pulled directly from the 1st module of the Mind Your Hormones Method!) Access this free training, HERE!Join the Mind Your Hormones Community to connect more with me & other members of this community!Come hang out with me on Instagram: @corinneangealicaOr on TikTok: @corinneangelicaEmail Fam: Click here to get weekly emails from meMind Your Hormones Instagram: @mindyourhormones.podcast Disclaimer: always consult your doctor before taking any supplementation. This podcast is intended for educational purposes only, not to diagnose or treat any conditions. 

Judson celebrates his 43rd birthday. Brian shares a list of trans Girl Scouts from whom listeners can order cookies. Judson and Brian appear together on Brandon Kyle Goodman's podcast, Tell Me Something Messy, and the conversation that ensues inspires them to consider a new business venture.The two receive an outrageously misguided pitch for a guest on the show.  Brian struggles with how to label himself on the apps. Judson extols the virtues of flipping in bed. The Hookup of the Week becomes a Go Ask Your Dad question when the listener shares a story about a regular hookup he wants more from, and also wants advice on how to start the conversation. Brian and Judson are then joined by Aidan Wharton, creator of the Substack bestseller, Gay Buffet, and host of Getting Close, a podcast that aims to revive humanity's connection skills, which Aidan warns are being intentionally destroyed by the tech companies that control the world. Aidan shares how he found his purpose, how he knew that monogamy wasn't for him, his exploration of open relationships through his writing, the cardinal rule of his open marriage, and how Grindr is useful for so much more than finding sex. Aidan then joins Brian and Judson in responding to a Go Ask Your Dad question from a listener who has discovered that he and his husband are no longer on the same page about the status of their open relationship, after a series of changes to their work and living situations. For the list of trans Girl Scouts to order cookies from, visit: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/2026-trans-girl-scouts-to-order-cookies Find Aidan Wharton on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aidanwharton Email your Hookup of the Week, Go Ask Your Dad and Dr. Daddy submissions to dadsanddaddies@gmail.com Dads and Daddies on the Web: https://www.dadsanddaddies.com/ Dads and Daddies on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dadsanddaddiespod Dads and Daddies on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@dadsanddaddiespod Dads and Daddies on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dadsanddaddiespod.bsky.social Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inglourious Basterds (2009), written and directed by Quentin Tarantino, revolves around two plots to assassinate Nazi leaders during the closing years of World War II. One plot centers on a secret band of Jewish-American soldiers under the command of Ltn. Aldo Raine (Brad Pitt)—the “Basterds”—who terrorize Nazis. The other involves Shosanna Dreyfus (Melanie Laurent), a young Jewish woman who narrowly escapes death at the hands of notorious “Jew hunter” Hans Landa (Christoph Waltz) and flees to Paris where she runs a cinema under a false identity. The plot lines converge at the Paris cinema where the Basterds and Shosanna are each separately plotting to kill Hitler and other Nazi leaders while they are attending the premiere of a German propaganda film. The film utilizes alternate history to explore themes surrounding the pursuit of justice against the perpetrators of mass atrocities and the complex relationship between law and vengeance.Timestamps:0:00    Introduction2:37     Reimagining the arc of justice8:00     Alternatives to the progress narrative16:51     The power of violence and revenge21:56     Counterfactuals and alternative histories27:03     The limits of legalistic responses to atrocities32:24     The role of cinema in Nazi Germany39:00     Narratives of progress44:10     Ending with a primal moment of revenge  Further reading:Hussain, Nadine, “‘Inglorious Basterds': A Satirical Criticism of WWII Cinema and the Myth of the American War Hero,” 13(2) Inquiries Journal 1 (2021)Jackson, Robert H., Opening Statement before the International Military Tribunal, Robert H. Jackson Center (Nov. 21, 1945)James, Caryn, “Why Inglourious Basterds is Quentin Tarantino's Masterpiece,” BBC (Aug. 16, 2019)Keydar, Renana, “‘Lessons in Humanity': Re-evaluating International Criminal Law's Narrative of Progress in the Post 9/11 Era,” 17 (2) J. Int'l Criminal Justice 229 (2019)Kligerman, Eric. “Reels of Justice: Inglourious Basterds, The Sorrow and the Pity, and Jewish Revenge Fantasies,” in Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds: A Manipulation of Metacinema (Robert Dassanowsky ed., 2012)Tekay, Baran “Transforming Cultural Memory: ‘Inglourious Basterds'”, 48(1) Film Criticism (2024)Law on Film is created and produced by Jonathan Hafetz. Jonathan is a professor at Seton Hall Law School. He has written many books and articles about the law. He has litigated important cases to protect civil liberties and human rights while working at the ACLU and other organizations. Jonathan is a huge film buff and has been watching, studying, and talking about movies for as long as he can remember. For more information about Jonathan, here's a link to his bio: https://law.shu.edu/profiles/hafetzjo.htmlYou can contact him at jonathanhafetz@gmail.comYou can follow him on X (Twitter) @jonathanhafetz You can follow the podcast on X (Twitter) @LawOnFilmYou can follow the podcast on Instagram @lawonfilmpodcast

In this conversation, Jeff Sarris and Jill Harris discuss dietary considerations for individuals with kidney stones, focusing on breakfast options. Jill shares insights from her experience with patients, emphasizing the importance of hydration, calcium intake, and managing oxalate levels. They explore various breakfast recipes and substitutions that cater to different dietary preferences while ensuring they align with kidney stone prevention. The discussion highlights the need to balance oxalate intake with other dietary factors such as salt and sugar, ultimately encouraging listeners to adopt a holistic approach to their diet.TakeawaysBreakfast is an important meal, but not mandatory.Many people default to oatmeal for breakfast.Hydration and calcium intake are crucial for kidney stone prevention.Avoiding high oxalate foods like spinach and almonds is key.Substituting white flour with oat flour increases fiber and protein.Meal planning can provide a variety of breakfast options.It's important to focus on overall dietary balance, not just oxalate.Different individuals may have different dietary needs and preferences.Jill offers numerous breakfast recipes in her meal plan.Focusing on salt and sugar reduction can improve overall health.00:00 Breakfast and Kidney Stones: An Introduction02:53 Understanding Breakfast Choices for Kidney Stone Prevention05:45 Substitutions and Alternatives in Breakfast Recipes09:07 The Role of Oxalates in Kidney Stone Formation11:49 Broader Dietary Considerations Beyond Oxalates——HAVE A QUESTION? _Leave us a voicemail at (773) 789-8764.KIDNEY STONE DIET® APPROVED PRODUCTSProtein Powders, Snacks, and moreWORK WITH JILL _Start HereKidney Stone Diet® All-Access PassKidney Stone Diet® CourseKidney Stone Diet® Meal PlansKidney Stone Diet® BooksPrivate Consultation with JillOne-on-One Deep Dive24-Hour Urine AnalysisSUPPORT THE SHOW _Join the PatreonRate Kidney Stone Diet on Apple Podcasts or Spotify——WHO IS JILL HARRIS? _Since 1998, Jill Harris has been the #1 kidney stone prevention nurse helping patients reduce their kidney stone risk. Drawing from her work with world-renowned University of Chicago nephrologist, Dr. Fred Coe, and the thousands of patients she's worked with directly, she created the Kidney Stone Diet®. With a simple, self-guided online video course, meal plans, ebooks, group coaching, and private consultations, Kidney Stone Diet® is Jill's effort to help as many patients as possible prevent kidney stones for good.

Let's be honest... the oral glucose tolerance test is nobody's idea of a good time. Gulping down a neon-sweet drink, feeling gross, and then anxiously waiting for numbers? Hard pass.Today we're breaking down alternatives to the oral glucose tolerance test — what actually gives us useful data, who these options are best for, and why one-size-fits-all testing doesn't belong in modern healthcare.LOOKING FOR HOLISTIC PRECONCEPTION AND PRENATAL SUPPORT:Find out more about the Holistic Mama Collective here.FIND NAT BELOW:Website - https://nataliekdouglas.com/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/natalie.k.douglasBook a Free Assessment Call - https://NatalieKDouglas.as.me/?appointmentType=50255874EndoNourish - Endometriosis and Adenomyosis Guide - https://nataliekdouglas.com/endonourish-holistic-endometriosis-adenomyoisis-care-guide/SacredSeeds - Preconception Care Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/preconception-care-guide/PCOS Wellness Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/pcos-holistic-guide/Thyroid Rescue - Self guided programhttps://nataliekdouglas.com/thyroid-rescue/Coming Off The Pill/IUD Holistic Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/coming-off-the-pill-mini-course/PMS/PMDD Natural Solutons Masterclass https://nataliekdouglas.com/pms-pmdd-natural-solutions-masterclass/Restore and Nourish Gut Reset - https://nataliekdouglas.com/restore-nourish-gut-reset/Perimenopause Masterclass -https://nataliekdouglas.com/perimenopause-masterclass-holistic-toolkit/Become a one-to-one clienthttps://nataliekdouglas.com/1-1-naturopathic-nutrition-consultations/FIND AMIE BELOW:Book a Free Assessment Call: https://p.bttr.to/3yBdmu3   Book Yourself In: https://l.bttr.to/ZDxWOWebsite - https://whatthenaturopathsaid.com   Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/thatnaturopathJoin the mailing list - https://elysium-clinic-of-natural-medicine.ck.page/69663ce14a  

Sweeteners are everywhere, but not all of them affect the body the same way. In this episode, Dr. Holly Carling and Alicia break down how refined sugar, artificial sweeteners, and even some so-called natural sweeteners quietly disrupt blood sugar, immunity, digestion, mood, and metabolism. Dr. Carling explains why sugar behaves like a physiological toxin in the body, how artificial sweeteners confuse insulin and gut bacteria, and why marketing terms like "low glycemic" do not always tell the full story. You will also learn which sweeteners can be used more safely in moderation, why taste buds can be retrained, and how acupuncture helps reduce sugar cravings by stabilizing blood sugar, calming stress, and supporting digestion. This episode offers clarity, balance, and practical guidance without fear-based food rules. In this episode: Why refined sugar acts as a physiological disruptor How sugar spikes insulin, cortisol, inflammation, and cravings The impact of sugar on immune function and illness risk Why artificial sweeteners like aspartame and sucralose backfire How artificial sweeteners alter gut bacteria and metabolic stability The truth about agave and highly refined stevia Which natural sweeteners are better choices in moderation Why nutrients matter when choosing sweeteners How taste buds adapt when refined sugar is removed How acupuncture helps regulate cravings, stress, digestion, and energy   For full show notes, resources and links head to: https://vitalhealthcda.com/podcasts/   The Vital Health for You Podcast is for everyone. Get to know us more by connecting with us at our website or on our Facebook page.   *Disclaimer: The statements made in this episode about specific products have not been evaluated by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration and are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent disease. All information provided is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your physician or other healthcare professional. 

Scott Kleinman is the Co-President of Apollo Asset Management. Scott joined Apollo in 1996 as its 13th employee and has spent nearly three decades helping build the firm into nearly a trillion-dollar alternative asset manager and retirement powerhouse. Our conversation traces Apollo's evolution from a value-oriented private equity boutique to an integrated platform investing across the capital structure at scale. We discuss the firm's core philosophy of excess return per unit of risk, its post-GFC expansion into private credit and retirement services, and why origination—not capital—has become the key constraint on its growth. We also explore Scott's transition from dealmaker to firm-wide leader, touching on culture, incentives, communication, and governance. We close with Scott's perspective on today's credit environment, the convergence of public and private markets, and the risks and opportunities shaping the next phase of alternative investing. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership

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Our Head of Research Product in Europe Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock break down the main themes for European stocks this year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Product here in Europe.Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist.Paul Walsh: Today, we are here to talk about the big debates for European equities moving into 2026.It's Friday, January the 16th at 8am in London.Marina, it's great to have you on Thoughts on the Market. I think we've got a fascinating year ahead of us, and there are plenty of big debates to be exploring here in Europe. But let's kick it off with the, sort of, obvious comparison to the U.S.How are you thinking about European equities versus the U.S. right now? When we cast our eyes back to last year, we had this surprising outperformance. Could that repeat?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, the biggest debate of all Paul, that's what you start with. So, actually it's not just last year. If you look since U.S. elections, I think it would surprise most people to know that if you compare in constant currency terms; so if you look in dollar terms or if you look in Euro terms, European equities have outperformed U.S. equities since US elections. I don't think that's something that a lot of people really think about as a fact.And something very interesting has happened at the start of this year. And let me set the scene before I tell you what that is.In the last 10 years, European equities have been in this constantly widening discount range versus the U.S. on valuation. So next one's P/E there's been, you know, we have tactical rallies from time to time; but in the last 10 years, they've always been tactical. But we're in this downward structural range where their discount just keeps going wider and wider and wider. And what's happened on December 31st is that for the first time in 10 years, European equities have broken the top of that discount range now consistently since December 31st. I've lost count of how many trading days that is. So about two weeks, we've broken the top of that discount range. And when you look at long-term history, that's happened a number of times before. And every time that happens, you start to go into an upward range.So, the discount is narrowing and narrowing; not in a straight line, in a range. But the discount narrows over time. The last couple of times that's happened, in the last 20 years, over time you narrow all the way to single digit discount rather than what we have right now in like-for-like terms of 23 percent.Paul Walsh: Yeah, so there's a significant discount. Now, obviously it's great that we are seeing increased inflows into European equities. So far this year, the performance at an index level has been pretty robust. We've just talked about the relative positioning of Europe versus the U.S.; and the perhaps not widely understood local currency outperformance of Europe versus the U.S. last year. But do you think this is a phenomenon that's sustainable? Or are we looking at, sort of, purely a Q1 phenomenon?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, it's a really good question and you make a good point on flows, which I forgot to mention. Which is that, last year in [Q1] we saw this really big diversification flow theme where investors were looking to reduce exposure in the U.S., add exposure to Europe – for a number of reasons that I won't go into.And we're seeing deja vu with that now, mostly on the – not really reducing that much in U.S., but more so, diversifying into Europe. And the feedback I get when speaking to investors is that the U.S. is so big, so concentrated and there's this trend of broadening in the U.S. that's happening; and that broadening is impacting Europe as well.Because if you're thinking about, ‘Okay, what do I invest in outside of seven stocks in the U.S.?' You're also thinking about, ‘Okay, but Europe has discounts and maybe I should look at those European companies as well.' That's exactly what's happening. So, diversification flows are sharply going up, in the last month or two in European equities coming into this year.And it's a very good question of whether this is just a [Q1] phenomenon. [Be]cause that's exactly what it was last year. I still struggle to see European equities outperforming the U.S. over the course of the full year because we're going to come into earnings now.We have much lower earnings growth at a headline level than the U.S. I have 4 percent earnings growth forecast. That's driven by some specific sectors. It's, you know, you have pockets of very high growth. But still at a headline level, we have 4 percent earnings growth on our base case. Consensus is too high in our view. And our U.S. equity strategists, they have 17 percent earnings growth, so we can't compete.Paul Walsh That's a very stark difference.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, we cannot compete with that. But what I will say is that historically when you've had these breakouts, you don't get out performance really. But what you get is a much narrower gap in performance. And I also think if you pick the right pockets within Europe, then you could; you can get out performance.Paul Walsh: So, something you and I talked about a lot in 2025, is the bull case for Europe. There are a number of themes and secular dynamics that could play out, frankly, to the benefits of Europe, and there are a number of them. I wondered if you could highlight the ones that you think are most important in terms of the bull case for Europe.Marina Zavolock: I think the most important one is AI adoption. We and our team, we have been able to quantify this. So, when we take our global AI mapping and we look at leading AI adopters in Europe, which is about a quarter of the index, they are showing very strong earnings and returns outperformance. Not just versus the European index, but versus their respective sectors. And versus their respective sectors, that gap of earnings outperformance is growing and becoming more meaningful every time that we update our own chart.To the point that I think at this rate, by the second half of this year, it's going to grow to a point that it's more difficult for investors to ignore. That group of stocks, first of all, they trade again at a big discount to U.S. equivalent – 27 percent discount. Also, if you see adoption broadening overall, and we start to go into the phase of the AI cycle where adopters are, you know, are being sought after and are seen as in the front line of beneficiaries of AI. It's important to remember Europe; the European index because we don't have a lot of enablers in our index. It is very skewed to AI adopters. And then we also have a lot of low hanging fruit given productivity demographic challenges that AI can help to address. So that's the biggest one.Paul Walsh: Understood.Marina Zavolock: And the one I've spent most time on. But let me quickly mention a few others. M&A, we're seeing it rising in Europe, almost as sharply as we're seeing in the U.S. Again, I think there's low hanging fruit there. We're seeing easing competition commission rules, which has been an ongoing thing, but you know, that comes after decade of not seeing that. We're seeing corporate re-leveraging off of lows. Both of these things are still very far from cycle peaks. And we're seeing structural drivers, which for example, savings and investment union, which is multifaceted. I won't get into it. But that could really present a bull case.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And that could include pensions reform across Europe, particularly in Germany, deeper capital…Marina Zavolock: We're starting to see it.Paul Walsh: And in Europe as well, yeah. And so just going back to the base case, what are you advocating to clients in terms of what do we buy here in Europe, given the backdrop that you've framed?Marina Zavolock: Within Europe, I get asked a lot whether investors should be investing in cyclicals or value. Last year value really worked, or quality – maybe they will return. I think it's not really about any of those things. I think, similar to prior years, what we're going to see is stock level dispersion continuing to rise. That's what we keep seeing every month, every quarter, every year – for the last couple of years, we're seeing dispersion rising.Again, we're still far from where we normally get to, when we get to cycle peaks. So, Europe is really about stock picking. And the best way that we have at Morgan Stanley to capture this alpha under the surface of the European index. And the growth that we have under the surface of the index, is our analyst top picks – which are showing fairly consistent outperformance, not just versus the European index, but also versus the S&P. And since inception of top picks in 2021, European top picks have outperformed the S&P free float market cap weighted by over 90 percentage points. And they've outperformed, the S&P – this is pre-trade – by 17 percentage points in the last year. And whatever period we slice, we're seeing out performance.As far as sectors, key sectors, Banks is at the very top of our model. It's the first sector that non-dedicated investors ask me about. I think the investment case there is very compelling. Defense, we really like structurally with the rearmament theme in Europe, but it's also helpful that we're in this seasonal phase where defense tends to really outperform between; and have outsized returns between January and April. And then we like the powering AI thematic, and we are getting a lot of incoming on the powering AI thematic in Europe. We upgraded utilities recently.Paul, maybe if I ask you a question, one sector that I've missed out on, in our data-driven sector model, is the semis. But you've worked a lot with our semi's team who are quite constructive. Can you tell us about the investment case there?Paul Walsh: Yeah, they're quite constructive, but I would say there's nuance within the context of the sector. I think what they really like is the semi cap space, which they think is really well underpinned by a robust, global outlook for wafer fab equipment spend, which we see growing double digits globally in both 2026 and 2027.And I think within that, in particular, the outlook for memory. You have something of a memory supercycle going on at the moment. And the outlook for memory is especially encouraging. And it's a market where we see it as being increasingly capacity constrained with an unusually long order book visibility today, driven really by AI inference. So strong thematic overlay there as well.And maybe I would highlight one other key area of growth longer term for the space, which is set to come from the proliferation of humanoid robots. That's a key theme for us in 2025. And of course, we'll continue to be so, in the years to come. And we are modeling a global Humanoids Semicon TAM of over $300 billion by 2045, with key pillars of opportunity for the semi names to be able to capitalize on. So, I think those are two areas where, in particular, the team have seen some great opportunities.Now bringing it back to the other side of the equation, Marina, which sectors would you be avoiding, within the context of your model?Marina Zavolock: There's a collection of sectors and they, for the most part, are the culprits for the low growth that we have in Europe. So simply avoiding these could be very helpful from a growth perspective, to add to that multiple expansion. These are at the bottom of our data driven, sector models. So, these are Autos, Chemicals, Luxury Transport, Food and Beverage.Most of these are old economy cyclicals. Many of these sectors have high China/old economy exposure – as well where we're not seeing really a demand pickup. And then lastly, a number of these sectors are facing ever rising China competition.Paul Walsh: And I think, when we weigh up the skew of your views according to your model, I think it brings it back to the original big debate around cyclicals versus defensives. And your conclusion that actually it's much more complicated than that.Marina, thanks for taking the time to talk.Marina Zavolock: Great to speak with you Paul.Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Dr. Jenn Simmons is a pioneering force in the world of breast cancer care. Once a renowned breast cancer surgeon, Dr. Jenn transformed her practice after her own journey as a patient, becoming an integrative oncologist with a mission to revolutionize breast cancer diagnosis, treatment, and screening. Dr. Jenn is the author of the best-selling book, "The Smart Woman's Guide to Breast Cancer," hailed as a must-read for anyone navigating this challenging journey. As the host of the insightful podcast "KEEPING ABREAST WITH DR. JENN," she shares her expertise and passion for holistic health. At Perfeqtion Imaging, Dr. Jenn is leading the charge with safe, affordable, and radiation-free breast imaging. Committed to addressing the needs of the forgotten woman, she educates on the safety and benefits of bioidentical hormone replacement therapy for breast cancer survivors, forever changing the landscape of breast health. In this episode, former breast surgeon Dr. Jen Simmons shares how her own breast cancer diagnosis led her to abandon conventional treatments and adopt a holistic, root-cause-focused approach through functional medicine. She critiques mammograms for their radiation risks and limitations, advocating safer alternatives like monthly self-exams, the at-home Aria tears test, and her radiation-free QT scan, while emphasizing true prevention and mindset in healing.   RESOURCES: Learn more about Dr. Jenn Simmons and check out The Breast Health Blueprint here: http://www.realhealthmd.com/ Instagram: @drjennsimmons Get her book The Smart Woman's Guide to Breast Cancer here: https://amzn.to/4jJKSEw Check out her podcast here: https://keepingabreastwithdrjenn.buzzsprout.com/ Get 15% off Peluva minimalist shoe with coupon code COACHTARA here: http://peluva.com/coachtara   CHAPTERS: 0:00:00 - Introduction & Guest Overview  0:02:22 - Sponsor Segment: Peluva Minimalist Shoes  0:04:18 -Dr. Simmons' Background and Family History with Breast Cancer 0:04:46 - Story of Cousin Linda Creed (Songwriter, "The Greatest Love of All," her death from breast cancer at age 37) 0:05:43 - Dr. Simmons' Career Path (Becoming a doctor, surgeon, fellowship-trained breast surgeon) 0:06:40 - Her Own Health Diagnosis (Hearing treatment recommendations as a patient, leading to a paradigm shift) 0:07:18 - Encounter with Functional Medicine (Attending a lecture by Dr. Mark Hyman, initial skepticism) 0:08:58 - Realizations from Functional Medicine (Root causes, healing vs. symptom treatment, mission to help millions) 0:10:30 - Her Healing Journey and Lessons Learned (Studying functional medicine, mistakes, health as a journey, need for community) 0:12:15 - Criticisms of Conventional Medicine (Loneliness, lack of personalization, no focus on root causes or healing) 0:13:29 - Book Recommendation and Purpose Alignment (The Smart Woman's Guide to Breast Cancer, lifelong alignment with purpose) 0:20:40 - What you should know if you are diagnosed with Breast Cancer 0:56:20 - Mindset and Story Manifestation (Importance of the narrative you tell yourself, subconscious work for full healing) 0:57:01 - Breast Cancer Screening Discussion (Criticism of mammograms, ethics of radiation/gadolinium for healthy women) 0:58:42 - Alternatives to Traditional Screening (Safe, painless options; self-examination instructions) 0:59:41 - The Auria Test (At-home test for inflammatory proteins, sensitivity/specificity, prevention potential, discount code) 1:02:51 - QT Scan and Perfection Imaging (Radiation-free imaging via sound waves, sensitivity, volumetric measuring to avoid unnecessary biopsies) 1:06:59 - Mission to Revolutionize Screening (Plans for expansion, making screening safe and preventative)   WORK WITH TARA: Are You Looking for Help on Your Wellness Journey? Here's how Tara can help you: TRY MY APP FOR FREE: http://taragarrison.com/app INDIVIDUAL ONLINE COACHING: https://www.taragarrison.com/work-with-me CHECK OUT HIGHER RETREATS: https://www.taragarrison.com/retreats   SOCIAL MEDIA:  Instagram @coachtaragarrison TikTok @coachtaragarrison Facebook @coachtaragarrison Pinterest @coachtaragarrison   INSIDE OUT HEALTH PODCAST SPECIAL OFFERS: ☑️ Upgraded Formulas Hair Test Kit Special Offer: https://bit.ly/3YdMn4Z ☑️ Upgraded Formulas - Get 15% OFF Everything with Coupon Code INSIDEOUT15: https://upgradedformulas.com/INSIDEOUT15 ☑️ Rep Provisions: Vote for the future of food with your dollar! And enjoy a 15% discount while you're at it with Coupon Code COACHTARA: https://bit.ly/3dD4ZSv   If you loved this episode, please leave a review! Here's how to do it on Apple Podcasts: Go to Inside Out Health Podcast page: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/inside-out-health-with-coach-tara-garrison/id1468368093 Scroll down to the 'Ratings & Reviews' section. Tap 'Write a Review' (you may be prompted to log in with your Apple ID). Thank you!

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Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at the implications of the U.S. government's efforts to ease regulations, from bank balance sheets to asset valuations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a core theme of easing policy, and the latest iteration in the U.S. mortgage market. It's Thursday, January 15th at 2pm in London. Central to our thinking for the year ahead is that we're seeing an unusual combination of easing monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy – all at the same time. This isn't normal, and usually this type of support is only deployed under much more dire economic conditions. All this is also happening alongside another large supportive force – over $3 trillion of AI- and datacenter-related spending that Morgan Stanley expects all to happen through the end of 2028. This broad-based easing is a global theme. Equities in Japan have been rallying on hopes of even a larger fiscal leasing in that country. In Europe, we think that Germany will continue to spend more while the European Central Bank and Bank of England cut rates more than the market expects.But like many things these days, it's the United States that's at the heart of the story. We think that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates this year, even as core inflation persists above its target. The U.S. government will spend about $1.9 trillion more than it takes in, even after adjusting for tariffs as tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kick in. But my focus today is on the third leg of this proverbial three-legged stimulative stool. While easing monetary and fiscal policy probably get the most focus, easing regulatory policy is another big lever that's being pulled in the same direction. Regulatory policy is opaque, and let's face it can be a little boring. But it's extremely important for how financial markets function. Regulation drives the incentives for the buyers of many assets, especially in the all-important banking and insurance sectors. It can set almost by definition what price an asset needs to trade at to be attractive, or how much of an asset a particular actor in the market can or cannot hold. Regulatory policy tightened dramatically in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, but now it's starting to ease. Our U.S. bank equity analysts expect that finalization of key capital rules later this year – an important regulatory step – could free up about [$]5.8 trillion – with a T – of balance sheet capacity across the Global Systematically Important Banks. In mid-December, the office of the comptroller of the currency and the FDIC withdrew lending guidelines from 2013 that had discouraged banks from making loans to more highly indebted companies. And just last week, the U.S. administration announced that the U.S. mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy [$]200 billion of mortgages to hold on their own balance sheet; a significant move that quickly tightens spreads in this key market. For investors, we see several implications. This simultaneous easing across monetary, fiscal, and now regulatory policy supports a market that runs hot and where valuations may overshoot. And in the specific case of these agency mortgages, my colleague Jay Bacow and our mortgage strategy team think that this shift is now very quickly in the price. Having previously been positive on agency mortgage spreads, they've now turned to neutral. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This recap episode reflects on the soulful conversation with tarot reader and spiritual mentor Frances Naudé, unpacking why tarot is best understood as a self-reflection tool. Brad and Lesley explore how intuition is often quiet, subtle, and easy to overlook, and how tarot can act as a structured way to pause, journal, and build self-trust. This grounded discussion invites listeners to see intuition as a daily practice—one that supports clearer decisions and more aligned action over time.If you have any questions about this episode or want to get some of the resources we mentioned, head over to LesleyLogan.co/podcast https://lesleylogan.co/podcast/. If you have any comments or questions about the Be It pod shoot us a message at beit@lesleylogan.co mailto:beit@lesleylogan.co. And as always, if you're enjoying the show please share it with someone who you think would enjoy it as well. It is your continued support that will help us continue to help others. Thank you so much! Never miss another show by subscribing at LesleyLogan.co/subscribe https://lesleylogan.co/podcast/#follow-subscribe-free.In this episode you will learn about:Tarot as guided self-reflection rather than fortune telling.How intuition shows up quietly and builds through daily repetition.Using tarot cards as structured prompts for journaling and self-awareness.How tarot shifted from a self-reflection tool to feared over time.Training intuitive trust through small, low-stakes daily decisions.Episode References/Links:Cambodia Retreat Waitlist - https://crowsnestretreats.comAgency Mini - https://prfit.biz/miniContrology Pilates Conference in Poland - https://xxll.co/polandContrology Pilates Conference in Brussels - https://xxll.co/brusselsPilates on Tour in London - https://xxll.co/potSubmit your wins or questions - https://beitpod.com/questions Online Pilates Classes - https://onlinepilatesclasses.com/youtubeFrances Naude's Website - https://www.francesnaude.comFrances Naude's YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@francesnaudeFree Intro to Tarot Online Course - https://beitpod.com/intrototarotEpisode 157: Kate Wind - https://beitpod.com/bitysiep157 If you enjoyed this episode, make sure and give us a five star rating and leave us a review on iTunes, Podcast Addict, Podchaser or Castbox. https://lovethepodcast.com/BITYSIDEALS! DEALS! DEALS! DEALS! https://onlinepilatesclasses.com/memberships/perks/#equipmentCheck out all our Preferred Vendors & Special Deals from Clair Sparrow, Sensate, Lyfefuel BeeKeeper's Naturals, Sauna Space, HigherDose, AG1 and ToeSox https://onlinepilatesclasses.com/memberships/perks/#equipmentBe in the know with all the workshops at OPC https://workshops.onlinepilatesclasses.com/lp-workshop-waitlistBe It Till You See It Podcast Survey https://pod.lesleylogan.co/be-it-podcasts-surveyBe a part of Lesley's Pilates Mentorship https://lesleylogan.co/elevate/FREE Ditching Busy Webinar https://ditchingbusy.com/Resources:Watch the Be It Till You See It podcast on YouTube! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq08HES7xLMvVa3Fy5DR8-gLesley Logan website https://lesleylogan.co/Be It Till You See It Podcast https://lesleylogan.co/podcast/Online Pilates Classes by Lesley Logan https://onlinepilatesclasses.com/Online Pilates Classes by Lesley Logan on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjogqXLnfyhS5VlU4rdzlnQProfitable Pilates https://profitablepilates.com/about/Follow Us on Social Media:Instagram https://www.instagram.com/lesley.logan/The Be It Till You See It Podcast YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq08HES7xLMvVa3Fy5DR8-gFacebook https://www.facebook.com/llogan.pilatesLinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lesley-logan/The OPC YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@OnlinePilatesClasses Episode Transcript:Lesley Logan 0:00  There's another way to figure out what's going on inside you, and tarot doesn't actually tell you anything new. It echoes what you already know and maybe what you're ignoring. When you draw a card in tarot, the card has some sort of meaning. Lesley Logan 0:18  Welcome to the Be It Till You See It podcast where we talk about taking messy action, knowing that perfect is boring. I'm Lesley Logan, Pilates instructor and fitness business coach. I've trained thousands of people around the world and the number one thing I see stopping people from achieving anything is self-doubt. My friends, action brings clarity and it's the antidote to fear. Each week, my guest will bring bold, executable, intrinsic and targeted steps that you can use to put yourself first and Be It Till You See It. It's a practice, not a perfect. Let's get started.Brad Crowell 1:02  Take it away. Lesley Logan 1:02  Welcome back to the Be It Till You See It interview recap where my co-host in life are going to dig into the soulful, soulful, soulful. Brad Crowell 1:10  The soulful.Lesley Logan 1:11  The soulful convo I had with Frances Naudé in our last episode. If you haven't yet listened to that interview, feel free to pause this now and go back and listen to that one, and then come back to this. You guys, this is the episode that kicked off my hobby. This is the one.Brad Crowell 1:27  And as a bystander of said hobby, I am going to tell you, Lesley has been incredibly consistent with this hobby for, what, four or five months now? Six months? Lesley Logan 1:38  Well, when I interviewed her. Six months? Brad Crowell 1:40  I don't have any idea. Lesley Logan 1:41  From the time that this, they listen to this, and then the time I interviewed her, I think we're at six months, four months. At any rate, I went full in on it, like the ADHD woman that I am, where you buy all the things my life makes so much sense now that I know that that's part of ADHD. You just buy. Brad Crowell 1:58  July. Lesley Logan 1:58  July, right. Brad Crowell 1:59  July. Lesley Logan 2:00  So, and this is January, yeah. So I bought all the things that one would need to study, a tarot, three different study guides and a app. But unlike all the other things that I have tried out, I have still been using all of the things, yeah. And there's a deck in every room. You can draw a card at any time.Brad Crowell 2:19  And you're, you know, reading about it, writing notes and being consistent, it's been great.Lesley Logan 2:25  I really like it, and so by the time you listen to this, I will have started drawing a card for each day so that I can do self-reflection daily. Yeah. So anyways, there we are. But okay, Brad's like, I know. All right, so they don't know. Brad Crowell 2:40  They do not know what is today.Lesley Logan 2:42  Today is January 15th, 2026, and it's Wikipedia Day. Brad Crowell 2:47  Wikipedia Day. Lesley Logan 2:48  So, and just so you all know, you can start getting ready, because my birthday is coming up. It's not yet, but it's coming up January 15th isn't it? Well, they don't know.Brad Crowell 2:57  Just making sure that everyone else, that has nothing to do with Wikipedia Day, but Lesley is preparing for her birthday.Lesley Logan 3:03  If they're gonna send anything, the time is coming down, because it's 11 days away. Brad Crowell 3:07  If they're gonna send something, send it to Wikipedia instead. Lesley Logan 3:11  No. Brad Crowell 3:12  Yeah. Send money to Wikipedia instead.Lesley Logan 3:14  No. Send money to your local SPCA group, not the major one that does the sad commercials, you're local one, okay, or you can send it up to Nevada's, and in my name, they'll, they already know me. Lesley Logan 3:25  Okay, so January 15th is an occasion that celebrates the birth and formation of Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia. Almost every single person in the world knows what Wikipedia is. When we search for something, a Wikipedia link is the first thing that pops up on our search engines. Brad Crowell 3:40  More often than not. Lesley Logan 3:41  It is also a popular site since it provides in-depth information and presents everything in a user friendly way. I love Wikipedia because of like, who is that person married to? You can just go right to that part, like, it's like a here's the bullet points. Okay, in-depth information and presents everything in a user friendly way. So without further ado, let's dedicate this day to the information provider that has been feeding us with the knowledge since day one. Happy Wikipedia Day, and surprise, I should have a Wikipedia page now. It's been a multi year journey. I think how I don't know how long Brad has been working on this project to gather all the information and create this page. I'm really excited about it.Brad Crowell 4:17  It's because I wanted to create a Wikipedia page that we hired a press person. Lesley Logan 4:22  Years ago. Brad Crowell 4:23  Years ago. Lesley Logan 4:23  Yeah. And by the way, how long? Like, there's rules, like, not everyone could just have a Wikipedia.Brad Crowell 4:28  Yeah, no, it's, it's not, you can't just write a story and put it up there. Everything has to be validated and, you know, credible and linked to other things. It's, you know. Lesley Logan 4:28  Because, like, you can't just go. Brad Crowell 4:29  It's intentionally factual and historic.Lesley Logan 4:39  Like, Charlie next door just can't go, like, I'm gonna make a Wikipedia page for myself. Brad Crowell 4:47  I mean, he could, but then the moderators would take it down the next day. Lesley Logan 4:50  Right. Brad Crowell 4:51  Yeah. Lesley Logan 4:51  Right. Brad Crowell 4:53  Right. And, I mean, it's also, you know, you can actually go onto Wikipedia and make any change you want to any page on there. Surprise, you can do that. That, but then it will be reviewed and either changed back or corrected or updated or whatever, or again validated. So, you know, the pages that are constantly growing, it's because there's external like verification for the source of this new information that's being added. It's very intentional. And the reality is, we didn't have the links back, the backlinks, to be able to say, well, Lesley did this. Lesley did that, or whatever, whatever, whatever.Lesley Logan 5:31  Because you can't just go, I did these things. They have to go. Where is the proof? Somewhere else that someone else can validate. You know that you did those things. Brad Crowell 5:38  Exactly. Lesley Logan 5:38  Yeah. But I'm now old enough. Brad Crowell 5:39  Congratulations. Lesley Logan 5:39  I'm famous enough, yeah. And if you want to, you know, look, Wikipedia does a thing every December where they want money, because they actually are free for you to use. And they need, they do a money drive every year. So if you want to give them their money, they're a worthy cause, yeah.Brad Crowell 5:52  I mean, I think I give them $3.50 a month through PayPal. Lesley Logan 5:57  Oh, well, that's so fun. Brad Crowell 5:58  I've been doing it for years. Yeah. Because if everybody does every time they do their drive every year, they say, if everyone just gave $3 then we would have all our bills paid for, right? And I was like, well, I can do $3 a month. How about that? Yeah.Lesley Logan 6:12  That's so thoughtful. Anyways, Brad and I are driving back from Palm Springs today. Brad Crowell 6:12  Right now. Lesley Logan 6:12  We were on vacation. Yeah, we went on vacation, and we're driving, and it's beautiful. We're probably picking up more cactuses because there is a cactus shop on the way from Palm Springs. Well, at least the way we go from Palm Springs home. So we'll have to see which cactus where we don't have yet that we want more of. And then, right now, the early bird discount for the retreat that is this year is happening.,Brad Crowell 6:12  Yeah, for Cambodia. Pilates Retreat. Lesley Logan 6:18  So if you've got an email about it. You are one of the few people who got it, and there's way too many of you on the waitlist that we could take on this year's retreat. So you definitely want to snag your spot before they're all gone, before the discount ends. Brad Crowell 6:49  Yeah, and no lie, we've already had people sign up. We had, like, secret invitation to some people, and so some spots were already snagged, and then we're already halfway through the early bird, so definitely, if this has been something that's on your radar, do not wait on this. Lesley Logan 7:06  You want to come. Brad Crowell 7:07  Yeah, go to crowsnestretreats.com for more information. But for those of you who are on the waitlist, check your email.Lesley Logan 7:14  Yeah, and if we are in your spam you need to tell your your spam folder that we are important people.Brad Crowell 7:19  Yeah, hello. We've Wikipedia page. Lesley Logan 7:21  Right. What does it take to get out of the promotions folder? Damn it. Okay.Brad Crowell 7:26  All right. Next month, February. Lesley Logan 7:28  Is Agency Mini, and it is for Pilates instructors and studio owners who work for themselves or want to, and they want their business to actually not just make the impact that they want to make, but also more than pay their bills, to have to align with their values, align with their goals, feel like they're more in charge of it all. And it's just a really beautiful program that we do. It's three days of your life, and it has replay access. And we've made some additional changes to this one from last time. So you're gonna want to go to prfit.biz/mini to sign up for the waitlist, because those on the waitlist will get the early bird. The early bird is coming up pretty close, because if it's happening in February, we always do an early bird a couple weeks out, so you don't want to miss that. After Mini, in March, Brad and I are going to go to Poland and then to Brussels. So there's a Contrology Pilates conference in Poland. xxll .co/poland I'm teaching alongside Karen Frischmann there. It's going to be a whole lot of fun. We've done it a couple years before, and then we're gonna be at the Pilates and Friends or the Vintage and Friends event at Els Studio Pilateles in Brussels xxll.co/brussels there are private and group classes, and then there's also these amazing workshops. Oh, and one of my dear friends who I haven't seen in years, is going to be at the Brussels one as well, so I'm super excited to teach alongside him again. It's been, it's been since, like, we were together at Jay's studio, so awesome. And then in April, Brad, so after that, Brad and I are gonna do a little second honeymoon, why not.Brad Crowell 8:53  Well, to celebrate our 10 years of marriage, that's one.Lesley Logan 8:56  Yeah, well, yeah. But like, why not? Is like, of course you would, yeah. And then we're going to be at the P.O.T. in London. xxll.co/pot will get you the information up at the London stuff. The lineup is amazing. It's our first time doing a P.O.T. in London. So that's really exciting. And that's actually also, by the way, these events are the only events outside our tour that you can hang out with us other than the retreat. That's it. Closing the schedule guys.Brad Crowell 9:23  Whoa, whoa, whoa, all right, before we go any further, we had an audience question, and today's question is from YouTube, from The Alternatives to the Pilates Teaser for Lower Back Issues video, Kelly asks, hey, actually, it's kellynyhan7909. Hi, Kelly. She said, Hey, could you share a class that is using a floor or standing using the floor, slash standing and a chair? Could you share a class? If that's possible. I've gone through the list of mat exercises and created my own ie side twist sitting and saw but I'm wondering if more for an aging population. It, if it would be good for all i also use the standing exercises from another video for the 100, the roll up, one leg, single leg, circle marching, etc. Lesley Logan 9:49  Great. So. Brad Crowell 9:50  You're gonna have to break down this question for me, because I don't actually have an idea what this question actually is.Brad Crowell 10:08  So, the idea, so she definitely asked a question has nothing to do with the video, which we tell people that they can do anytime they want. Brad Crowell 10:21  True. Lesley Logan 10:21  So what you want to look at, Kelly, on the YouTube channel is we actually released a entire long form video about how to do Pilates at work. So there's going to be some great suggestions. You can draw some inspiration from there, if not use them completely. We also have on the YouTube channel a standing workout. There's a whole workout you can do standing. There's a wall workout, a real wall pilates workout. And then over on OPC, Mindy created a really great stretch class using a chair. And you can use she was on a Wunda Chair, but Brad was on a regular chair, and it spliced in there. So I would definitely grab that workshop, or maybe it was a stretch class. It was another legacy tab, and that's what I would do. And the other thing I would just give you permission on is, after you've done all that, that's a lot of movements, right? A lot of exercises. And our bodies actually only do so many different movement directions. And so you don't have to keep getting creative. You actually need they can get more curious and more connected. So I would get all those inspirations together, find out the ones that work best for the population you're working with, and then make them get better at it. And if they if that's not just time that's going to help them, then what other exercises outside of those things would help them? What props, what tools, you can use the Accessories Deck and OPC to help you with that. So yeah, I understood the question. Brad Crowell 10:21  Great, amazing. Lesley Logan 10:21  Probably a good thing, since I'm answering it, go to beitpod.questions to send yours in.Brad Crowell 10:50  Nope, beitpod.com/questions Lesley Logan 10:50  beitpod.com/questions and then submit your questions and maybe send up send a win, too. Something to celebrate. Brad Crowell 10:50  Yeah, send us your wins, y'all. Lesley Logan 11:49  You can also text us at 310-905-5534. Okay. Frances Naudé.Brad Crowell 11:58  Yeah, stick around. We will be right back. Brad Crowell 12:01  Okay, now let's talk about Frances Naudé. Frances Naudé is a Reiki Master, tarot reader and spiritual mentor who helps people reconnect with their intuition and live in alignment with their true selves. She's also the creator of the Four Noble Tarot Deck. Tarot Deck.Lesley Logan 12:19  You can see Tarot. Deena says, tarot. Brad Crowell 12:22  Oh, okay, and offers free tarot readings and energy guidance.Lesley Logan 12:28  Frances might say tarot, but.Brad Crowell 12:31  On YouTube, along with regular insights on Instagram from her global community, for her global community, that she affectionately calls The Soul Fam, guided by her belief that intuition is our greatest tool, Frances teaches others to trust their inner wisdom and lead with joy, courage and authenticity.Lesley Logan 12:50  Oh, my God. I was just so excited. I was like, okay, I have so many questions. Tell me everything.Brad Crowell 12:55  I really enjoyed your one question about the history.Lesley Logan 13:00  Oh, are we gonna talk about that today, or is that not in today?Brad Crowell 13:03  We are gonna. Lesley Logan 13:04  Skip it today? Brad Crowell 13:05  Well, no, it's not, it's not on here, but I thought it was very interesting. So yeah, let's just talk about it. Lesley Logan 13:09  Let me tell you something, because I think there's more to the story. And obviously we had a short period of time, so I asked her where tarot, tarot came from, right? And she's like, like, how controversial we want to be. And I said, I want to know the truth. And so she said the church, the church had it, and then the church. Brad Crowell 13:26  She said it was around before the church, but she said the church basically, adoted it. Lesley Logan 13:30  Well, they appropriated it. That's a better word for what the church does, and they appropriated it. And then, you know, you would go to the church to get support over something you were thinking about contemplating, and then they would help you use it as a self-reflection tool. Because the printing press wasn't big, and only rich people could have tarot decks painted for them, right?Brad Crowell 13:50  Right. So can you just say that one sentence? They would help you, using the tarot, tarot cards as a self-reflection tool. They would use tarot cards as a self-reflection tool. Lesley Logan 14:04  Yeah, well, and that's like, that's gonna go into what I love about what we talked about. Brad Crowell 14:13  But let's keep going with the history. Lesley Logan 14:09  Okay, so then the printing press became a thing, and so then people could just print their own tarot decks, and then they didn't need to go to the church. And so obviously that was like, not gonna work for the church, because then they'd be obsolete. So they made tarot decks be like. Brad Crowell 14:25  Well, I'm sure you tithe to have your reading or whatever, to have your self-reflection, so effectively it was costing them money. So what did they do? They made, they demonized tarot decks. Lesley Logan 14:35  The same thing they did with women healers. They demonized those too. They demonized. That's why the reason we have witches, witchcraft, all these things, is like, oh, that one point it served the church, and another point they decided to get rid of it, because it would mean they didn't have as much power. And now it became a witchy pagan thing. And let me tell you, after I heard this, I felt like my whole life was a lie. I was like, oh, my God, everything. I've ever been told that is evil and bad was actually good. It's all been good, right? You know. So anyways, we can talk about the witches they burned on another day. But I talked to Kate Wind, who we've had on the pod before, and I said, Kate, how come I didn't know that tarot decks came from the church? And she said, well, the church, we think the church took them from the Romanians, like, which the word you don't use anymore, but like Romanian gypsies, for lack of a better, like, what we're gonna call them. However, there's also some information that could have been from India as well. Brad Crowell 15:43  Interesting. Lesley Logan 15:33  But you know what? Just like we've been to Cambodia, and you're at the temples, and they're like, exactly the opposite of Machu Picchu what is what is. Brad Crowell 15:43  They're opposite on the globe. Lesley Logan 15:45  Right and so and so, it's like, to me, when I hear these things could be at the same time. It's like, because there was this human knowing that there's another way to figure out what's going on inside you. And so tarot doesn't actually tell you anything new, it echoes what you already know and maybe what you're ignoring. And so when you draw a card in tarot, the card has some sort of meaning. We'll just talk about like the upright position has some sort of meaning, right? And what you're supposed to do is reflect upon that meaning in your own life. And so I've been studying in different ways. Like I was talking to one of my besties on the phone yesterday, and she was talking about how she's doing this inventory in her life, and she's letting go of people who don't like ping back her serve, right? You know, like you gotta, it's gotta be or that she's not pinging back on them. And I was. Brad Crowell 16:36  It has to be mutual. Lesley Logan 16:37  It has to be mutual. Get this, one of the card I was studying yesterday was the moon, and the moon is this card where you're like, okay, what in my life is an illusion? Where am I? Where am I off the I'm on the wrong path. Where am I needing to let go of some things.Brad Crowell 16:53  Sorry, did you say where am I lying to myself? Lesley Logan 16:56  Yeah. Brad Crowell 16:56  Oh, recurring theme from last week's.Lesley Logan 16:58  Yeah, right. Same, same, exactly, well. And by the way, you are just doing the exact same thing you should do with tarot, which is, like you did something today. We recorded last week's show, and now you're learning about this card, and so you're using it as a way to think differently or think deeper about, self-reflection. And so I'm telling you guys right now. I mean, Frances said so many more amazing things, but like, this is the thing, if my therapist had told me pick up a tarot deck and journal, I would have been, my life problems have been solved a long time ago. Because I, this has been like, what am I supposed to reflect on? You know what I mean, like, is that not like the question you, like when people say self-reflect, like you have to do self-reflection. Like, do you ever wonder what that means? I just don't. I was like, what does that mean, though? How do I do that?Brad Crowell 17:46  Yeah, sure, but I mean, I don't know that. I usually, I'm, if I'm self-reflecting, it's because there's something that is wrong, and I'm I'm probably self-reflecting about that thing. I'm not just generally self-reflecting. Lesley Logan 17:59  Okay, well, that's good, but also you're that sounds like you're only doing it when something's gone wrong. You're not doing it when something's gone right. Brad Crowell 18:04  Well, sure. Lesley Logan 18:05  Right, and so in tarot, you could have something going well, or you could or it could be, like there could be you can use it as a yes, no, decision maker like to help you make decisions in your life. But like, everything is about it has guidance and information and the symbols, and, like we talked about that, and it helps you kind of understand, it actually helps you have empowerment. That's what she said. She said it really is all about empowerment and helping people be able to navigate their own inner wisdom and then apply it forward. And I think that's the coolest thing about it. It's like a lot of us have so much goodness, and we can only give it to our friends. We can never give it to ourselves. Brad Crowell 18:38  Yeah. So this is where it's interesting for me, right? Because, like, first off, I think that, like this interview, I found very curious. I actually really like listening to Frances. I think, I think it was revealing. There was also some things that were, like, definitely a double woo on the woo scale that I was kind of like, you know, but, but here's where I also think. Lesley Logan 18:59  Brad, remember, we went to two woos, starting 2025. Brad Crowell 19:02  Okay, but let's, let's, then she's in the 2.5s. So, so here's the thing, she also is not just doing tarot. She's also doing Reiki, right? And yoga. She's a yogi as well, like energy work, all that kind of stuff. So there's definitely she's got a lot going on. And so her answers were not exclusive to tarot. Right? And that's where, like, sometimes I was kind of going, well, you know, like, I've actually, you know, had Reiki performed on me and all that kind of stuff in the past as well. So I don't, I don't discount energy work. I think that it's, you know, we all have, we literally have a scientific magnetic field. I get it. I understand that it can be influenced with things and all the stuff. So I don't, I'm not saying no to that, either. But what I, I think that, having grown up in the church and having been like, told that like, you know, basically, tarot is the devil, you know, and looking at it like you know, effectively, it's almost like fortune telling, like, you know, you look at tarot, it's always in movies put alongside somebody with a crystal ball reading your future, and it's always portrayed as utter bullshit.Lesley Logan 20:10  Yes, I think that was part of the programming. So we would avoid it.Brad Crowell 20:13  I think so, too, you know, but, but that's just the that's where I'm coming from with it. That's the worldview that I've had my entire life, until I'm, you know, watching you do this, and listening to her talk about it. So, you know, I think that there's still that weirdness around well, when I'm having somebody else read my tarot cards, you know, this is not fortune telling, right? And I think that's what we should be very clear. They're not just making shit up. Lesley Logan 20:39  Correct. And even when you have, when you do go get a reading like Kate does them. Brad Crowell 20:43  Is it a back and forth, like you're, you know.Lesley Logan 20:45  You didn't have, you didn't get one from Lindsay? You didn't get one from Lindsay? Eric's place years ago.Brad Crowell 20:51  Maybe I can't remember, I think I did, but I can't remember. But, but the, but, like, the question I had, like, it's not like I'm sitting there in silence. They're flipping cards and telling you what's going to happen. It's more of a conversation and the person is helping you come to these conclusions.Lesley Logan 21:05  It probably depends on the on the facilitator, but essentially, the tarot readings I've had is I had one I didn't really like. I actually asked Kate about it, and she was like, she feels like she's being a little more predicting, versus like, asking you. But the one that Lindsay did, Lindsay (inaudible). Brad Crowell 21:21  She didn't do this. I think I remember it. Lesley Logan 21:21  She did a reading with me, and she pulled these cards. And I don't remember the type of spread it was, but it was basically okay. So in the past, right? She had, like, a past, present, future spread of some sort. And so in the past, she's like, okay, in your past, you had x, y and z, that is currently affecting where you are presently. So what's going on in your present life was like, let's just say you drew the full card, which is the car. Like, this is the person's like, going off doing something. They're not probably prepared for it, but they're excited. And they are like, are just going for it, right? But there's these mountains in the way. They're gonna be obstacles, but they have clear skies ahead, because there's gonna be something amazing, like, that's the full so in your past, you had this opportunity to do something amazing, and that sets you off on your present and then the present card, it could be the moon, okay? But presently, you have some illusions. You might be misaligned, and you know, like this. And then in the future, oh, the future, you've got an emperor, right? I'm just picking cards that I remember by. Brad Crowell 22:22  But the idea here is that there's, like, different positions, and one position is past, one position is present, one position is future. Lesley Logan 22:29  If you do that, yeah. Brad Crowell 22:29  And then, and then the the cards help you reflect on different things from your past, from your present, from your future. Lesley Logan 22:30  Yeah. So then you can ask your and then there's self-reflection questions like, okay, what does this make me think of is there a decision that I need to be making right now that I haven't been making? Is this, is there, is there, like, you could be doing a financial spread, and then the cards could be, you take all the meanings of the cards and it's a financial spread, and you're like, oh, if you get this one, like, there's one card that, if you get it, it's like, oh, you should take more drastic, dramatic action in your investments, right where you could draw a different card that's saying, oh, you should be more careful.Brad Crowell 23:07  But this comes down to the predictive, not the reflection. And that's where, like, that's where. For me, this is weird.Lesley Logan 23:12  So I'm explaining to it in a way that, yes, I could hear how you're saying it's predictive, where you would then take it as going, oh, okay, where can I be more aggressive in my financial investments. Where have I been too like, maybe you got the card upside down. Where have I been too aggressive in my financial investments? So you take the card's meaning , and then you apply it to your life based on the spread you're doing. And this is why we couldn't, didn't have the time to get into this. Brad Crowell 23:38  So it's like in the present, and then the whatever the card is, maybe the card is saying, let's talk about how this, you know, this, you've been too aggressive, or let's talk about how you've been not aggressive enough.Lesley Logan 23:49  You could actually draw a card that is all about intuition. And so then the question is like, okay, what is my intuition saying I should be doing today, or I should be doing right now, like you're.Brad Crowell 23:58  But this is what, okay, now that we're talking about it clarifying in this way, it's bringing me even more on board, because it effectively is almost like talking points. Yeah, each card represents a different talking point, a different analytical way of looking at your own past, present and future. Lesley Logan 24:16  Correct. If you do that spread and so what you are supposed to do is listen to them explain what each card means and the position that it's in, and then go and apply it. Meaning, like, reflect upon it and go, okay, it like, let's say you're doing a spread that has to do with your your career, right? You, right now, Brad, are currently doing a lot more sales in the in our business, right? You could end up with, like, doing a spread where it's in the future, it's showing you as having more leadership roles. Okay? So then it's like, okay, well, if in the future, I might having to take on more leadership roles in this business, then you know, what do I need to be doing today to prepare myself? How much of how, what does that feel like for me? Do, if that is something I was going to take on, what would I like to learn about myself? What would I want to do? What should I be doing now? So that can be even a possibility, right? So, like, it just reflects upon different things. And also, it's not predictive. It's just they're all each card, what it represents is more. It's like, not, I don't want to distill it down to a vibe, but it's a vibe, right? Like, and they represent different feelings. There are some cards that, like, the cups are all about emotions. So when you draw Cups cards in your spread, and maybe it's a day spread, maybe you just do one card a day, you might draw the 10 of Cups, which is all about relationships. So then it's like, Okay, today, where can I invest more in my relationships? So for me, I prefer the Day card, because it's like, okay, it's like a focus for today, but you can use them.Brad Crowell 25:50  It's almost like a journal prompt, you know it's like, it's like a preconceived 365 day journal prompt.Lesley Logan 25:56  Correct, I bought a whole journal that does one a day, and they have stickers. And I was like, fucking in. I'm doing it. I got stickers for I got a tarot card sticker. Brad Crowell 26:03  This is cool. I like this even more now. Lesley Logan 26:05  And so and so, for me, the way I've been studying it is, like, the card I'm studying, I'm literally going, how today did I see did, like, when I was studying, like, the Empress, like, oh, how today was I, like, using these things that she has or, or I wasn't using these things. Oh, there was that moment today where I outsourced my intuition to this person over here. So it just helps you reflect upon yourself and get to know yourself more. And the thing is that we all need if we want to have self-love, prevent burnout, be it till we see it. If you don't know yourself like you, you don't know how to listen to yourself, then it becomes really hard. So I have really got obsessed with it, because I'm like, oh, this is a way for me to have a conversation with myself that is somewhat guided and that it's whatever card I drew, whatever card I'm learning from that day, and that allows me to reflect upon today or my past or whatever, and uncover and almost like an onion, peel back another layer without outsourcing my agency.Brad Crowell 27:06  Well, I was just talking about this. Well, first off, that's really cool, and I and I agree, I think it's awesome that this is like, you're not outsourcing, you're not nothing wrong with going to see a therapist or anything like that. That's not what I'm talking about. But it's nice that this is something that you can do on your own. And I was just talking about this with someone about self-reflection, and I love that this is effectively a self -reflection practice.Lesley Logan 27:29  Yeah, that's and that's like, I really was so pleased that Frances explained it in that way, because correct, like you, I went to a tarot reader thinking they're gonna tell me what could be coming up in the future, and I forgot the time that Lindsay did it. And more was like, okay, you've been through X, Y and Z according to your past. You're it's currently affecting in this way and presenting in this way. And in the future, this could be coming up, and you should be aware of it. And it's like, so that sounds predictive, but also I still have to be the one who goes and does the thing. So I need to reflect upon, what did I learn in the past when it comes to that area that this card is representing? What am I currently going through that this card is highlighting, and then this future card is sharing, is putting this as a thing to be looking at. Doesn't mean it's predictive, but like, if that, like, what do I, where's the gap? What do I need to know? What does that, what feeling does that bring up in me? You know? So it's not, it's more of a guide, it's just a guide. I really like it. And I, and I am so pissed that I this was it took me 43 years of my life to know this is something I could use. I'm so grateful for Frances.Brad Crowell 28:38  Well, nothing like a little anger to make motivate you to learn.Lesley Logan 28:41  Yeah. Oh, and also, people keep asking if I'm going to do a reading, and the answer is no.Brad Crowell 28:46  Okay, so here's the deal that's funny that you say that, you know, how do you you know, I just want to briefly touch on this before we move on to some great Be It Action Items. But because I just hijacked your whole conversation and asked about the process and the belief behind it and how it works, which I am glad we did, because I feel like it was good to clarify that I had also written down some notes about the conversation you had with listening to your own intuition, right, because you asked her questions about how did you know that you could do this full time as a career? How did this turn into a career? And I'm gonna skip a whole lot of my notes, but ultimately, she said, you know, pursuing the unconventional path requires being your own staunchest supporter. Because you were talking about, how was it like at a family picnic with people like you're doing what now are you can I like, pray for you? Lesley Logan 29:32  Oh, I could only imagine. Brad Crowell 29:32  Yeah, right. And so.Lesley Logan 29:32  When I told people I was a Pilates instructor, that was already weird. Can you imagine telling them that you're doing Reiki and tarot?Brad Crowell 29:40  Right. So, you know, and what she said, It's not that you have to have the it's not that you have the confidence already. It's that you trust so deeply that you're that what you're doing is what you're supposed to be doing, which is listen to it, to your intuition, right? She said, you do it scared anyways, which is being it till you see it? Right. And she said that builds your confidence. So I just wanted to make sure we got that in. I thought that was really awesome. But stick around. We'll be right back. We're gonna uncover these Be It Action Items that we got from Frances Naudé. Brad Crowell 30:09  All right, welcome back. Let's talk about those Be It Action Items. What bold, executable, intrinsic or targeted action items can we take away from your convo with Frances Naudé? She said you have to learn how to hear and trust your intuition. Learn how to hear and trust your intuition. And she said, here's a three-part practice for building your intuitive muscle. And this is great, because learn how to hear and trust your intuition is not helpful for me, but here's three steps. Here's how you do that. Start with small daily decisions, things that you do every day, like choosing your tea, picking produce, or selecting which pair of underwear to wear, because that's what she does. She picks it up and she goes, is today, this pair of underwear day, or that pair of underwear day? And she's building this intuitive muscle, you know, like listening to herself, feeling it out, right. And she said, why does she do it then? Because it's something she repeats every single day. She has to make a choice right then, and so she's.Lesley Logan 31:04  I'm obsessed with it, because it goes in line with how habits are created. Brad Crowell 31:08  Hundred percent, yeah. She says, pause and feel after you make the choice, stop and notice what does it feel like in your body, and what energy do you have when you've made that decision. Then recognize the nature of intuition. So this is step three, recognize the nature of intuition. It's quiet. Often feels like a passing thought can lead you down paths that challenge your comfort zone and beliefs. She said, your intuition often will not make logical sense. It might not actually be loud. People always expect these really big moments, but intuition is often really quiet. So she basically, she's reminding us that daily awareness practice will help you build trust in your own guidance long before the big decisions show upLesley Logan 31:48  And to the next step, then ,you have to do that first. You guys don't get to skip ahead, do that first, the next step is to define your highest self. So this is the person we're being it until we see, right? This is a place that exists without ego, she said, without fears, worries, anxieties, and without other people's stories. So yeah, get rid of the other people's stories that are in your head, telling you who your highest self is. And then she encouraged you to clearly define who that self is and live by it. And she, Frances actually shared her three pillars of her highest self, which are, she lets joy lead. She does not let fear get in her way, and she lives in unity with all that's around her. I think that that's those are really tough things to kind of do, because we all want to control how things are. But if you let joy lead hence the going back to last week's episode, I love that these are back to back episodes, and then not letting fear get in the way. That means doing things scared. You know, going back to last week's episode. So so she also said, when you combine a strength and intuitive muscle with a clear vision of the highest self, every decision you make, you are walking that aligned path, even when the noise gets loud. And I just want to say that one more time, when you combine a strength and intuitive muscle with a clear vision of that highest self, every decision you make, you're walking that aligned path. So that's what I want for you guys. And I'm really, really like, I hate how long it took us to get this episode out, Frances, because, like, I've been working so hard on my tarot, but I really am super excited that it's coming out this time of the new year, when people can actually, like, instead of going new year, new me, it's like, what, what, who are, is your highest self. That should be the thing that you're thinking about. And then what can you do every day to walk in alignment with that? And that's going to help you with all the ups and downs and highs and lows. I'm Lesley Logan. Brad Crowell 33:31  And I'm Brad Crowell. Lesley Logan 33:32  Thank you, Frances Naudé. Y'all, how are we gonna use these tips in your life? What were your favorite parts? Make sure you tag Frances. By the way, you guys, she does a weekly drawing every single Monday. It's quite fun to attend live, and I'm sure you can get to know more about her. And look, I probably got some of this information wrong, but this is my interpretation of it. I'm sticking with it. Don't take it from me. All right, until next time. Be It Till You See It.Brad Crowell 33:52  Bye for now. Lesley Logan 33:54  That's all I got for this episode of the Be It Till You See It Podcast. One thing that would help both myself and future listeners is for you to rate the show and leave a review and follow or subscribe for free wherever you listen to your podcast. Also, make sure to introduce yourself over at the Be It Pod on Instagram. I would love to know more about you. Share this episode with whoever you think needs to hear it. Help us and others Be It Till You See It. Have an awesome day. Be It Till You See It is a production of The Bloom Podcast Network. If you want to leave us a message or a question that we might read on another episode, you can text us at +1-310-905-5534 or send a DM on Instagram @BeItPod.Brad Crowell 34:36  It's written, filmed, and recorded by your host, Lesley Logan, and me, Brad Crowell.Lesley Logan 34:41  It is transcribed, produced and edited by the epic team at Disenyo.co.Brad Crowell 34:46  Our theme music is by Ali at Apex Production Music and our branding by designer and artist, Gianfranco Cioffi.Lesley Logan 34:53  Special thanks to Melissa Solomon for creating our visuals.Brad Crowell 34:56  Also to Angelina Herico for adding all of our content to our website. And finally to Meridith Root for keeping us all on point and on time.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/be-it-till-you-see-it/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Our Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist Ridham Desai addresses a big debate: whether India stocks are poised for a recovery after underperforming other emerging markets in 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist. Today: one of the big debates in Asia this year. Can Indian equities recover their strength after a historic slump? It's Wednesday, January 14th, at 2pm in Mumbai.India ended 2025 with its weakest relative performance versus Emerging Markets since 1994. That's right – three decades. The reason? A mid-cycle growth slowdown, rich valuations, and the fact that India doesn't offer an explicit AI-related trade. Add in delays on the U.S. trade deal plus India's low beta in a global bull market, and you've got a recipe for underperformance. But we think the tide is turning. Valuations have corrected meaningfully and likely bottomed out in October. More importantly, India's growth cycle looks poised for a positive surprise. Policymakers have gone all-in on reflation, deploying a mix of aggressive measures to revive momentum. The Reserve Bank of India has cut rates, reduced the cash reserve ratio, infused liquidity and gone in for bank deregulation which are adding fuel to the fire. The government has front-loaded capital expenditure and announced a massive ₹1.5 trillion GST rate cut to encourage people to spend more on goods and services. All these moves – along with improving ties between India and China, Beijing's new anti-involution push, and the possibility of a major India-U.S. trade deal – are laying solid groundwork for recovery. Put simply, India's once-tough, post-pandemic economic stance is easing up. And that could open the door to a major shift in how investors see the market going forward. India's macro backdrop is also evolving. The reduced reliance on oil in GDP, the growing share of exports, especially in services, the ongoing fiscal consolidation – all indicate a smaller saving imbalance. This means structurally lower interest rates ahead. And flexible inflation targeting, and volatility in both inflation and interest rates should continue to decline. High growth with low volatility and falling rates should translate into higher P/E multiples. And don't forget the household balance sheet shift toward equities. Systematic flows into domestic mutual funds are evidence of this trend. Investor concerns are understandable, but let's keep them in context. More companies raising capital often signals growth ahead, not just high valuations. Domestic investment remains strong, thanks to a steady shift toward equities. India's premium valuations reflect solid long-term growth prospects and expectations for lower real interest rates. On the policy front, efforts to boost growth are robust, and we see real growth potentially surprising to the upside. While India isn't a leader in AI yet, the upcoming AI summit in February could help address concerns about India's role in tech innovation. What key catalysts should investors watch? Look for positive earnings revisions, further dovishness from the RBI, reforms from the government including privatization, and the long-awaited U.S. trade deal. But also keep an eye on key risks – slower global growth and shifting geopolitical dynamics. So, after fifteen months of relative pain, could India be on the cusp of a structural re-rating? If growth surprises to the upside – and we think it will – the story of 2026 may just be India's comeback. Stay tuned.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver and U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst Chris Snyder discuss a North America Big Debate for 2026: Whether investments in efficiency and productivity will spark a transformation of U.S. manufacturing. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Chris Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Michelle Weaver: Today: Will 2026 be the year of U.S. Manufacturing's transformation? It's Tuesday, January 13th at 10am in New York. U.S. reshoring has been an important component of our multipolar world theme, and manufacturing is one of those topics we have always had our eyes on. We've been making some big predictions about a transformation in this sector, so it makes sense that it features prominently in the big debates we've identified for North America in 2026. In the last few years, there's been a steady stream of investments in automation controls and upgrades across U.S. manufacturing. And this is happening against a backdrop of shifting global supply chains and lingering policy uncertainty. Now, the big market debate is whether these investments will generate a whole wave of greenfield projects – that is brand new, multi-year construction initiatives to build facilities, factories, and infrastructure from the ground up. Chris, what exactly is driving this current wave of efficiency and productivity investment in U.S. manufacturing? And how long term of a trend is it? Chris Snyder: I think what's driving the inflection is tariffs. The view that has underpinned my U.S. reshoring call is that I believe companies have to serve the U.S. market. The U.S. accounts for 30 percent of global consumption – equal to EU and China combined. It is also the best margin region in the world. So, companies have to serve the market, and now what they're doing is they're going back and they're looking at their production assets that they have in the U.S. and they're saying, how can I get more out of what's already here? So, the quickest, cheapest, fastest way to bring production online in the U.S. is drive better productivity and efficiency out of the assets you already have. And we're seeing it come through very quickly after Liberation Day. Michelle Weaver: And you think these investments are an on ramp to larger greenfield projects. What evidence do we have that this efficiency spend is setting the stage for a ramp up in new factory builds? Chris Snyder: I think this is absolutely the leading indicator for greenfields because this is telling us that the supply chain cost calculation has changed. What all of these companies are doing are saying, ‘Okay, how can I get products into the U.S. at the cheapest cost possible?' What we're seeing is the cost of imports have gone higher with tariffs, and now it's more economically advisable for these companies to make the product in the United States. And if that's the case, that means that when they need a new factory, it's going to come to the United States. They might not need a factory now, but when they do, the U.S. is at least incrementally better positioned to get that factory. Other data that we're seeing; I think the most interesting data that's come out of all of this is the bifurcation in global PPI or producer price data. If you look at it on a regional basis, North America markets saw PPI go higher in 2025. They were all the tariff exempt regions – U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Every other region in the world saw PPI down year-to-date. That means that these companies and factories are having to lower prices to stay competitive in the global market and sell their products into the United States. That tells us also where the next factory is going. If you have a factory in the U.S. and a factory in Malaysia, and your U.S. factory is pricing up, that means the return profile is getting better. If your factory in Malaysia is pricing down, it means the returns are getting worse and you're pricing down because it's over-capacitized. That's not a region where you're going to add a factory. You know, what I like to say is – price drives returns, and supply is going to follow returns. And right now, that price data tells us the returns are in the United States. Michelle Weaver: And, for people that might not be familiar with PPI, can you explain it to everyone? It's sort of like CPIs cousin, but how should people think about it? Chris Snyder: Yeah, yeah, so PPI, Producer Price Inflation, it's effectively the prices that my companies, the producers of goods are charging. So maybe this is the price that they would then charge a distributor, who then the distributor ultimately is selling it to a store. And then that's, you know, kind of factoring its way into CPI. But it starts with PPI. Michelle Weaver: And what are some of the key catalysts investors should be looking for in 2026 that could confirm that this greenfield ramp is underway? Chris Snyder: The number one, you know, metric I think the market looks at is manufacturing project starts. Every month there's data that comes out and says how many manufacturing projects were announced in the U.S. that month. And what we've seen coming out of Liberation Day is that number on a project value has gone higher. You know, it hasn't totally inflected, but it has pushed higher. The thing that has inflected is the number of announcements. So, this is not like two or three years ago where we had these mega projects. What we're seeing right now is very broad. And to me that's more important because that shows that there's durability behind it. And it shows that this is because the economics are saying it makes sense. It's not necessarily just because, okay, I got an incentive and I'm trying to follow alongside that. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. The market seems skeptical though, pointing out that the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index has been shrinking. This could be a sign that demand isn't strong enough to justify building new factories right now. How would you address that concern? Chris Snyder: Yeah, no, I mean, you're definitely right. Like the biggest pushback on the reshoring theme is the demand for goods is not very strong. Consumers are not in a good place. So why would companies add capacity in this backdrop? That's never happened before. Companies only add capacity when they're producing a lot and the utilization goes up. This is not a normal cycle. Throughout history, the motivation to add capacity was when your production rates go higher, your utilization hits a certain level, and then you add capacity. So, it always started with demand to your point. The motivation right now is tariff mitigation. And you do not need higher demand to support that. The U.S. is a $1.2 trillion trade deficit. So, that more than anything gets me confident in the theme and the duration behind it. And I think it's a very different outlook when you look across the international markets. They're the ones that need to find incremental demand to justify investment. Michelle Weaver: And given the scale of U.S. purchasing power and the shift in global capital flows, how do you see these manufacturing trends impacting broader performance in 2026? Chris Snyder: We published our outlook and we're calling for the U.S. Industrial Economy to hit decade high growth levels in the back half of [20]26 and into [20]27. And this is a big reason why. We think about this a lot from a CapEx perspective. And we're seeing the investment, we think that ramps into larger greenfields. But we're also seeing it in the production economy. If you look at the delta between U.S. consumer spend and U.S. manufacturing production, that has really narrowed in recent months. And that tells us that we're increasingly serving U.S. demand through domestic production. So that's another factor that's going to drive activity higher and it doesn't need a cycle. And I think that's what's really important. And I think that is what creates this as a more secular and also durable opportunity. So obviously reassuring is something that's, you know, very close to me and important for the industrial economy. But as you think about the multipolar world theme more broadly, how do you think that evolves in 2026? Michelle Weaver: Yeah, absolutely. Last year the multipolar world was an incredibly powerful theme. And when investors were thinking about the multipolar world last year, it was largely about how are companies going to mitigate the risk of tariffs in the near term. We had the policies come out and surprise everyone in terms of the breadth and the magnitude of the tariffs we saw. We had a lot of policy uncertainty around what is that final level of tariffs going to look like. And a lot of the reaction was really short term. It's how can we use our inventory buffers to try and preserve our margins? How much of these additional tariff costs can we pass off to the end customer? How can we insulate ourselves in the near term? I think this year it's going to turn to more longer-term strategic thinking. Reshoring and a lot of the greenfield projects you were talking about, I think will absolutely be an important component of the multipolar world this year. I think we're also likely to see a greater emphasis on U.S. defense. With the action we just saw in Venezuela. I think we're going to see more of that defense component of the multipolar world starting to be expressed in the U.S. It was a big part of the expression of the theme in Europe last year, but I think it will gain relevance in the U.S. this year. Chris Snyder: Yeah. And I think the next chapter in U.S. industrial growth is just getting going. It's taken 25 years for the U.S. to seed roughly 12 percentage points of global share in manufacturing. We don't think they take that much back. But we think this is a very long runway opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And as we watch for the next wave of greenfields, it's clear that efficiency and productivity investments are more than just a stop gap. They're a longer-term theme and they're a foundation for a new era in U.S. manufacturing. Chris, thank you for taking the time to talk. Chris Snyder: Great speaking with you, Michelle. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategists Vishy Tirupattur discusses the calm market reaction to the latest developments in Venezuela and the potential implications for oil, stocks and bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. On today's podcast, I will talk about the markets' response to the complex political developments in Venezuela, and examine the opportunities and risks it presents to the markets. It is Monday, January 12th at 11 am in New York. Despite the far-reaching geopolitical implications of last weekend's developments in Venezuela, the financial markets have been strikingly calm. Oil prices have barely budged, global equities have rallied, and the reaction in the safe-haven markets – U.S. Treasuries, for example – has been fairly muted. So what explains all of this? Let's start with oil – the commodity most exposed to the situation in Venezuela. The near-term supply appears very manageable. As Morgan Stanley's chief commodities strategist Martijn Rats notes, the market entered 2026 oversupplied, and inventories remain flush. That cushion explains why Brent prices have barely budged, and why Martijn sees prices sliding into the mid-$50s in the coming months.The bigger story is medium term. The prospect of reviving Venezuela's oil industry tilts production risks higher. Despite holding over 300 billion barrels, the world's largest reserves, [the] current output of Venezuela is just 0.8-1 million barrels per day, making it the smallest producer among the major reserve holders. More Venezuelan barrels hitting global markets could keep prices soft, even against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions. For oil, the near-term price risk is low while medium-term price risk leans bearish. Let's talk about energy stocks. In line with the expectation of our equity energy analysts led by Devin McDermott, energy equities have largely responded favorably, reflecting the potential for increased oil supply and specific company opportunities. U.S. refiners stand out as poised to gain. A post-Maduro Venezuela could mean higher crude exports of the heavy, sour oil that these refiners are built to process. More imported heavy crude is a clear tailwind for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners like Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), potentially lowering their input costs and improving their margins. Similarly, Chevron (CVX), the only U.S. major still operating there under a sanctions waiver, is also poised to rally on the back of this. So for energy stocks, while [the] geopolitical story is complex, the market's message is straightforward. The prospect of greater supply is good news, and some companies appear uniquely positioned to gain as Venezuela's next chapter unfolds. Nowhere has the market reaction been more dramatic than in Venezuela's own sovereign debt. As Simon Waever, Morgan Stanley's global head of sovereign credit strategy anticipated, prices of Venezuela's defaulted bonds – both the government bonds (VENZ) as well as the bonds of state oil company PDVSA – soared to multi-year highs following the weekend's events. The bond complex has already rallied over 25 percent since last weekend to reach an average price of about $35, thanks to the increased likelihood of a creditor-friendly transition. A clearer path for a potential debt restructuring deal improves the prospects for future debt recovery. We expect further upside as the markets price a higher recovery rate if Venezuela's oil production increases further. So what's the bottom line: Last week's developments in Venezuela are a major geopolitical event, but the financial market reaction reflects both the contained nature of the shock and the prospect of constructive outcomes ahead – more oil supply, creditor-friendly debt resolution, etc. Oil markets are signaling that global supply can weather the storm, equity investors are cheering beneficiaries like refiners and seeing the broader risk backdrop as unchanged, and bond investors are selectively adding Venezuela's beaten-down debt in hopes of an eventual recovery. For now, the takeaway is that this political event has not affected the market's positive momentum – if anything, it has created pockets of opportunity and reinforced prevailing trends such as ample oil, and strong credit appetite. As always, we'll keep you informed of any material changes. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

334: 2026 goals and resolutions often consist of weight loss or just wanting to eat healthier, but many don't realize some top offenders that could be hindering your goals. Today we are covering some top “healthy” foods that are secretly sabotaging your diet and better options to consume and make instead that are budget friendly!  As always, if you have any questions for the show please email us at digestthispod@gmail.com. And if you like this show, please share it, rate it, review it and subscribe to it on your favorite podcast app.  Sponsored By:  → Fatty15 | For 15% off the starter kit go to https://fatty15.com/digest → Our Place | Go to https://fromourplace.com/ and use code DIGEST for 10% Further Listening:  → Food Trends To Look For In 2026 | BOK Check Out Bethany: → Bethany's Instagram: @lilsipper → YouTube → Bethany's Website → Discounts & My Favorite Products → My Digestive Support Protein Powder → Gut Reset Book  → Get my Newsletters (Friday Finds) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode 96 On December 31, 1986, just hours before Puerto Rico would ring in the New Year, flames tore through the luxurious Dupont Plaza Hotel and Casino in San Juan. What began as a labor dispute escalated into one of the deadliest hotel fires in U.S. history, killing 97 people and injuring more than 140. In the aftermath, investigators would uncover arson, negligence, ignored safety recommendations, a chaotic evacuation, and a legal battle that reshaped fire codes across the hospitality industry. In this episode, we examine: The labor tensions and strike that set the stage for disaster The timeline of the fire and how it spread so rapidly How smoke and toxic gases became the primary killers Failures in life safety systems, egress, and emergency planning The investigation that quickly identified arson Criminal charges against arsonists Massive civil litigation and code reforms that followed Lessons learned in the context of other hotel/casino fires of the era The Crime to Burn Patreon - The Cult of Steve - is LIVE NOW! Go join and get all the unhinged you can handle. Click here to be sanctified.  Inner Sanctum Acknowledgments: Eternal gratitude to our Inner Sanctum patrons, Melanie Curtis, Jenny Mercer and Laura Pisciotta, for helping us bring light to the stories others would rather leave in the ashes. Listener discretion is advised. Background music by Not Notoriously Coordinated  Get your Crime to Burn Merch! https://crimetoburn.myspreadshop.com Please follow us on Instagram, X, Facebook, TikTok and Youtube for the latest news on this case. You can email us at crimetoburn@gmail.com We welcome any constructive feedback and would greatly appreciate a 5 star rating and review.  If you need a way to keep your canine contained, you can also support the show by purchasing a Pawious wireless dog fence using our affiliate link and use the code "crimetoburn" at checkout to receive 10% off. Pawious, because our dog Winston needed a radius, not a rap sheet.  Sources:  Video & Documentary Sources Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson Investigation. Señor Onion's Archives. YouTube, April 13, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JyUjUoX_so Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson of 1986. Señor Onion's Archives. YouTube, October 21, 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJsFLgxuDJ8 Government / Technical / Legal Reports Nelson, Harold E. “An Engineering Analysis of the Early Stages of Fire Development — The Fire at the Dupont Plaza Hotel and Casino — December 31, 1986.” NBSIR 87-3560, National Bureau of Standards, Center for Fire Research, U.S. Department of Commerce, April 1987. Levy, Harold M. “The Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire Litigation: A Case Study in Cooperative Defense.” Alternatives to the High Cost of Litigation, Vol. 7, No. 12, December 1989, pp. 215–233. José Francisco Rivera-Lopez, Plaintiff, Appellant, v. United States of America, Defendant, Appellee. U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, 4 F.3d 982, September 15, 1993. https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/F3/4/982/525384/ (Note: First Circuit Local Rule 36.2(b)6 — Unpublished opinions may be cited only in related cases.) News & Contemporary Coverage (1987) “Teamsters Dispute with Dupont Plaza Dates Back Four Months.” UPI Archives, January 13, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/13/Teamsters-dispute-with-Dupont-Plaza-dates-back-four-months/7070215305413/ Brossy, Julie. “A Dupont Plaza Bar Boy Was Charged Today With…” UPI Archives, January 14, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/14/A-Dupont-Plaza-bar-boy-was-charged-today-with/8362537598800/ Hernandez, Moises. “Suspect in Hotel Fire Was Honored for Saving ‘Many Lives.'” UPI Archives, January 14, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/14/Suspect-in-hotel-fire-was-honored-for-saving-many-lives/2708537598800/ Gaulin, Edward J. “Defendants Plead Guilty in Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire.” UPI Archives, April 24, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/04/24/Defendants-plead-guilty-in-Dupont-Plaza-Hotel-fire/8801546235200/ Wilentz, Amy. “A New Year We'll Never Forget.” TIME, January 12, 1987. https://time.com/archive/6708028/a-new-year-well-never-forget/ Features, Retrospectives & Later Reporting Tepfer, Daniel. “A Vacation in Paradise Turns into Fiery Hell.” CTPost, Updated December 30, 2011. https://www.ctpost.com/news/article/a-vacation-in-paradise-turns-into-fiery-hell-2432149.php Reference / Encyclopedia & Summary Sources Dewey, Joseph. “Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire.” EBSCO Knowledge Advantage Research Starters, 2022. https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/law/dupont-plaza-hotel-fire “Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson.” Grokipedia. https://grokipedia.com/page/Dupont_Plaza_Hotel_arson

Send us a textWe break down the most common real estate tax myths, from REP status and short-term rentals to cost segregation timing and entity hype. We show how to time deductions, avoid recapture pain, and use non-asset strategies to cut taxes while building wealth.• REP status based on hours and participation, not a license• Cost segregation timing to match high-income years• Excess business loss limits and why W-2s hit a wall• Recapture planning with reinvestment or 1031 exchange• Short-term rental rules and the 100-hour trap• LLCs for asset protection, not deductions• Holding company and management company myths debunked• Cost segregation is accepted and improves accuracy• Alternatives to buying assets for write-offs• Real estate cash flow, depreciation, and tax-free refi benefits• Holistic planning across business, wages, and investmentsGo to https://www.prosperalcpa.com/opportunityreport for your free opportunity report illustrating what may be possible with our tax strategiesGo to prosperalcpa.com/apply to learn more

In this episode, Steve speaks with Mischa Bitton, Head of Alternative Investments at Standard Chartered, about the growing role of alternative investments. They discuss why alternatives matter in a high-inflation environment and how different alternative assets could help investors diversify portfolios in 2026. Read the accompanying report https://av.sc.com/corp-en/nr/content/docs/wm-thematic-report-the-role-of-alternatives-in-a-world-of-elevated-valuations-pvb-09-january-2026.pdf to find out more.Speaker:- Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer, Standard Chartered Bank  - Mischa Bitton, Head of Alternative Investments, Standard Chartered Bank  For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Broadcast from KSQD, Santa Cruz on 1-08-2026: Dr. Dawn concludes her 2025 medical advances recap, noting that while GLP-1 weight loss drugs showed unexpected benefits for addiction, schizophrenia, and dementia risk, Novo Nordisk recently reported semaglutide had no effect on cognition in people with existing dementia or mild cognitive impairment. She describes the first successful human bladder transplant performed on May 4th. The 41-year-old recipient received both kidney and bladder due to the bladder's complex blood vessel network. Surgeons practiced on cadavers with active circulation before achieving success, opening pathways for future bladder-only transplants for the 84,000 Americans diagnosed with bladder cancer annually. An emailer follows up about purslane for cognitive health. Dr. Dawn reviewed the referenced studies and found neither actually supported claims about purslane and cognition—one discussed the Lyon Heart Study's Mediterranean diet, the other described antioxidant properties. She cautions listeners that websites citing "scientifically proven" claims often reference articles that don't support their assertions. An emailer asks about statin alternatives after developing severe muscle pain on both atorvastatin and rosuvastatin. Dr. Dawn suggests he shouldn't be on statins given his classic adverse reaction. She recommends ezetimibe plus oat bran for cholesterol, metformin for his elevated triglycerides indicating insulin resistance, and checking LDL particle size and inflammation markers. She emphasizes that cholesterol is a risk factor, not a disease, and treating 50 low-risk people for 10 years prevents only one heart attack. A caller discusses plaque formation theory, comparing it to calluses. Dr. Dawn explains Linus Pauling's similar hypothesis that plaque forms at vessel bifurcations to protect against turbulent blood flow damage. She warns against driving total cholesterol below 130, as it disrupts steroid hormone production. The caller shares his mother's near-fatal rhabdomyolysis from statins—muscle breakdown releasing myoglobin that clogs kidneys—and criticizes data transfer failures between hospital systems. An emailer reports four UTIs in two months at age 79. Dr. Dawn questions whether all were true infections, since vaginal contamination causes false positives on dipstick tests. For confirmed UTIs, she recommends D-mannose and cranberry to prevent bacterial adhesion, post-void residual ultrasound to check for incomplete emptying, lactobacillus probiotics, and vaginal DHEA (Intrarosa) to restore mucosal thickness and disease resistance. Dr. Dawn describes Stanford's Phase III trial for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, where defective collagen-7 causes skin layers to separate at the slightest touch. Researchers take patient skin biopsies, use retroviruses to insert corrected genes, grow credit-card-sized skin grafts over 25 days, then suture them onto wounds. At 48 weeks, 65% of treated wounds fully healed versus 7% of controls. She reports a Stanford study showing premature babies who heard recordings of their mothers reading for 2 hours 40 minutes daily developed more mature white matter in language pathways. The left arcuate fasciculus showed greater development than controls, demonstrating how early auditory stimulation shapes brain circuitry even in NICU settings. Dr. Dawn concludes with tattoo safety concerns. Modern vivid inks contain compounds developed for car paint and printer toner, including azo dyes that break down into carcinogenic aromatic amines—especially during laser removal. Pigment particles migrate to lymph nodes and persist in macrophages, causing prolonged inflammation. She advises those with tattoos to avoid laser removal, wear sunscreen, practice lymphatic hygiene, and reconsider extensive new tattoos.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets takes a look at multiple indicators that are pointing on the same direction: strong growth for markets and the economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about an unusual alignment of signs of optimism for the global cyclical backdrop and why these are important to watch. It's Friday, January 9th at 2pm in London. 2026 is now well underway. Forecasting is difficult and a humbling exercise; and 2025 certainly showed that even in a good year for markets, you can have some serious twists and turns. But overall, Morgan Stanley Research still thinks the year ahead will be a positive one, with equities higher and bond yields modestly lower. It's off to an eventful start, certainly, but we think that core message remains in place. But instead of going back again to our forecasts through the year ahead, I wanted to focus instead on a wide variety of different assets that have long been viewed as leading indicators of the global cyclical environment. I think these are important, and what's notable is that they're all moving in the same direction – all indicating a stronger cyclical backdrop. While today's market certainly has some areas of speculative activity and excessive valuations, the alignment of these things suggests something more substantive may be going on. First, Copper prices, which tend to be volatile but economically sensitive, have been rising sharply up about 40 percent in the last year. A key index of non-traded industrial commodities for everything from Glass to Tin, which is useful because it means it's less likely to be influenced by investor activity, well, it's been up 10 percent over the last year. Korean equities, which tend to be highly cyclical and thus have long been viewed by investors as a proxy for global economic optimism, well, they were the best performing major market last year, up 80 percent. Smaller cap stocks, which again, tend to be more economically sensitive, well, they've been outperforming larger ones. And last but not least, Financial stocks in the U.S. and Europe. Again, a sector that tends to be quite economically sensitive. Well, they've been outperforming the broader market and to a pretty significant degree. These are different assets in different regions that all appear to be saying the same thing – that the outlook for global cyclical activity has been getting better and has now actually been doing so for some time. Now, any individual indicator can be wrong. But when multiple indicators all point in the same direction, that's pretty worthy of attention. And I think this ties in nicely with a key message from my colleague, Mike Wilson from Monday's episode; that the positive case for U.S. equities is very much linked to better fundamental activity. Specifically, our view that earnings growth may be stronger than appreciated. Of course, the data will have a say, and if these indicators turn down, it could suggest a weaker economic and cyclical backdrop. But for now, these various cyclical indicators are giving a positive read. If they continue to do so, it may raise more questions around central bank policy and to what extent further rate cuts are consistent with these signs of a stronger global growth backdrop. For now, we think they remain supporting evidence of our core view that this market cycle can still burn hotter before it burns out. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Detroit Lions Podcast: Lions Contact Mike McDaniel for OC OC Search Turns to Mike McDaniel The Detroit Lions fired John Morton. The Miami Dolphins fired head coach Mike McDaniel. Credible reports say the Lions contacted McDaniel about the offensive coordinator vacancy. The outreach reads like due diligence. He is a viable candidate with an inventive mind and a track record. The question is fit. Practice Tape and Scheme Mismatch Joint practices this summer left scars. McDaniel hardly engaged with players. Aloof and off putting came up around that field. Detroit just moved on from an OC players did not feel connected to. A repeat would be costly. The Dolphins offense landed bottom 10 in scoring and yards in each of the past two years and trended the wrong way. The usage did not match the roster. Tua was asked to throw short to the speediest wide receiving group in the game. The offensive line was asked to hold longer on routes he was not going to throw. That is a disconnect between talent and scheme. In the red zone the tells were obvious. You could read the call from the formation. That predictability helped stall drives. It mirrors a Detroit sore spot from this season. Detroit Context: Adapt or Fail Detroit at times called plays like Sam Laporta and Frank Rigg now were available. They were not. Results suffered. Miami's issues looked similar. In those joint sessions the Lions defense beat the living hell out of Miami, especially the first day. Detroit knew what was coming. Think Tecmo Super Bowl when you pick the play and blow it up. Miami did not adjust. Players did not show fight. McDaniel stood and took it. That picture matters when you weigh scheme flexibility and sideline communication inside this NFL building. Alternatives and a Blough Path There is a workable path if Detroit believes in McDaniel's concepts. Install him as OC and make David Blough the passing game coordinator. Let Blough learn the system for a year or two. Groom him. It is plausible. McDaniel has worked with dynamic offensive weapons. Devon A. Sheen compares to a smaller Jamir Gibbs. Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill thrived in space. Translating that speed and spacing to Detroit could hit, if the calls match the personnel and situation. Tua is not the answer for Detroit over Jared Goff. That is clear here. Todd Monken remains out there, technically still employed by the Baltimore Ravens. He is interesting and has had success in a variety of spots. The Lions need adaptability, clarity, and player connection. That should drive the hire. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i89gfyp3uvU #detroitlions #lions #detroitlionspodcast #mikemcdaniel #offensivecoordinatorvacancy #johnmorton #miamidolphins #jointpractices #lionsdefense #redzoneoffense #davidblough #passinggamecoordinator #tua #jaredgoff #samlaporta #frankriggnow #toddmonken Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research. Andrew Percoco: And I'm Andrew Percoco, Head of North America Autos and Shared Mobility Research. Brian Nowak: Today we're going to talk about why we think 2026 could be a game changer and a point of inflection for autonomous vehicles and autonomous driving. It's Thursday, January 8th at 10am in New York. So, Andrew, let's get started. Have you ridden an autonomous car before? Andrew Percoco: Yeah, absolutely. Took a few in L.A., took one in San Francisco not too long ago. Pretty seamless and interesting experience to say the least. Brian Nowak: Any accidents or awkward left turns? Or did you feel pretty comfortable the whole time? Andrew Percoco: No, I felt pretty comfortable the whole time. No edge cases, no issues. So, all five star reviews for me. Brian Nowak: Andrew, we think your answer is going to be a lot more common as we go throughout 2026. As autonomous availability scales throughout more and more cities. Things are changing quickly. And we kind of look at our model on a city-by-city basis. We think that overall availability for autonomous driving in the U.S. is going to go from about 15 percent of the urban population at the end of 2025 to over 30 percent of the urban population by year end 2026. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, totally agree. Brian, I'm just curious. Like maybe layout for us, you know, what you're expecting for 2026 in more detail in terms of city rollouts, players involved and what we should be watching for throughout the next, you know, nine to 12 months. Brian Nowak: We have multiple new cities across the United States where we expect Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, and others to expand their fleet, expand autonomous driving availability, and ultimately make the product a lot more available and commonplace for people. There are also new potential edge cases that we think we're going to see. We're going to have our first snow cities with Waymo expected to launch in Washington, D.C.; potentially in Colorado, potentially in Michigan. So, we could have proof of concept that autonomous driving can also work in snow throughout [20]26 and into 2027 as well. So, in all, we think as we sit here at the start of [20]26, one year from now, there's going to be a lot more people who are going to say: I'm using an autonomous car to drive me around in my everyday practice. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And I guess, what do you think the drivers are to get us there, right? There's also some concerns about safety, adoption, you know, cost structure. What are the main drivers that really make this growth algorithm work and really scales the robotaxi business for some of the key players? Brian Nowak: Part of it is regulatory. You know, we are still in a situation where we are dealing with state-by-state regulatory approvals needed for these autonomous vehicles and autonomous fleets to be built. We'll see if that changes, but for now, it's state by state regulation. After that, it comes down to technology, and each of the platforms needs to prove that their autonomous offerings are significantly safer than human driving. That is also linked to regulatory approval. And so, when we think about fleets becoming safer, proving that they can drive people more miles without having an accident than even a human can – we think about the autonomous players then scaling up their fleets. To make the cars and fleets available to more people. That is sort of the flywheel that we think is going to play out throughout 2026. The other part that we're very focused on across all the players from Waymo to Tesla to Zoox and others is the cost of the cars. And there is a big difference between the cost of a Waymo per mile versus the cost of a Tesla per mile. And we think one of the tension points, Andrew, that you can, you can talk about a little bit here, is the difference in the safety data and what we see on Tesla as of now versus Waymo – versus the cost advantage that Tesla has. So, talk about the cost advantage that Tesla has through all this as of right now. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, definitely. So, you know, as you mentioned, Tesla today has a very clear cost advantage over many of the robotaxi peers that they're competing with. A lot of that's driven by their vertical integration, and their sensor suite, right? So, their vehicle, the cost of their vehicle is – call it $35,000. You've got the camera only sensor approach. So, you don't have lidar, expensive lidar, and radar in the vehicle. And that's just really driven a meaningful cost improvement and cost advantage. On our math about a 40 percent cost advantage relative to Waymo today. Now going forward, you know, as you mentioned, I think the key hurdle here or bottleneck, that Tesla still needs to prove is their safety. And can they reach the same safety standards as a human driver? And, you know, the improvement that you've seen from Waymo. You know, to put some numbers around this. Based on publicly available data in Austin, Tesla's getting in a crash, you know, every about, call it every 50,000 miles; Waymo is closer to every 400,000 miles per crash. So today, Waymo is the leader on safety.I think the one important caveat that I want to mention here is that's on a relatively small number of miles driven for Tesla. They've only driven about 250,000 miles in Austin, whereas Waymo's driven close to, I think, a hundred million miles cumulatively. So, when you look back, I think this is going to be the kind of key catalyst and key data point for investors to watch is – how that data improves over the course of 2026. If you track Waymo – Waymo's data improved substantially as their miles driven improved, and as they launched into new cities.We'd expect Tesla to follow a similar trend. But that's going to be a huge catalyst in validating this camera only approach. If that happens, Tesla's not limited in scale, they're not limited in manufacturing capacity. You can meaningfully see them expand… Or you can see them expand quite quickly once they prove out that safety requirement. Brian Nowak: I think it's a great point because, you know, one of the other big debates that we are all going to have to monitor in the AV space throughout 2026 is: How quickly does Tesla completely pull the safety drivers, and how quickly do they scale up production of the vehicles? Because one of the bank shots around autonomous driving is actually the rideshare industry. You know, we have partnerships; some partnerships between Waymo and Uber and Waymo and Lyft. But Tesla is not partnering with anyone. And so, I think the extent to which we see a faster than expected ramp up in deployment from Tesla can have a lot of impact. Not only on autonomous adoption, competition with Waymo, but also the rideshare industry.So how do you think about the puts and takes on Tesla and sort of removing the drivers and scaling up the fleet this year? What should we be watching? Andrew Percoco: Yeah, so they've already made some strides there in Austin. They've pulled the safety monitor. They haven't opened that up to the public yet without the safety monitor. They're still testing, presumably in that geography. They need to be extremely careful in terms of, you know, the regulatory compliance and making sure they're doing this in a safe way. Ultimately that's what matters most to them. We do expect them to roll it out to the public without the safety monitor in 2026. Whether or not, that's the first quarter or the third quarter – is a little bit tougher to predict. But I think it's reasonable to assume whatever the timeline is, they're going to make sure it's the safest way possible to ensure that there's, you know, no unintended consequences as it relates to regulation, et cetera. I think one, also; one important data point or interesting data point here. You know, we model, I think, a 100 percent CAGR in miles driven, autonomous miles driven through 2032. You can talk a little bit about, you know, what the implications for rideshare, but I think important. It's important to contextualize that would still only represent less than 1 percent of total U.S. miles driven in the U.S. So substantial growth over the next, call it six or seven years. But still a massive TAM to be tapped into beyond 2032. And I think the key there is – what's the cost reduction roadmap look like? And can we get robotaxis to a point where they are cheaper than personal car ownership? And could robotaxis at some point disrupt the car ownership process? Brian Nowak: Yeah. And the other more important point around rideshare will be how much do these autonomous offerings expand the addressable market for rideshare and prove to be incremental? As opposed to being cannibalistic on existing ride share rides. Because you're right that, you know, even our out year autonomous projections still have it less than 1 percent of the total trips. But the question is how much does that add to ride share? Because in some scenarios, those autonomous trips could end up being 20 to 30 percent of the rideshare industry. This matters for Uber and Lyft because while they are partnering Waymo and other autonomous players across a handful of markets, they're not partnered in all the markets. And in some markets, Waymo is going alone. Tesla is going at it alone. And so when we look at our model and we say as of 2024, Uber and Lyft make up 100 percent of the ride share industry based on the current partnerships, which includes Waymo and Tesla and all; and Zoox and all the players, we think that Uber and Lyft will only make up 30 percent of the autonomous driving market. And so it's really important for the rideshare industry that when, number one, we see AV's being incremental to the TAM; and two, that Uber and Lyft are able to continue to add more partnerships over time to drive more of that overall long-term AV opportunity and participate in all this rideshare industry over the next five years. Andrew Percoco: I think it's really clear that the future of autonomous vehicles is here and we've reached an inflection point; and there's a lot of interesting catalysts and data points for us and for investors to watch for throughout 2026.So Brian, thanks again for taking the time to talk. Brian Nowak: Andrew, great speaking with you. And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Alternative investments are taking center stage as we look ahead to 2026. With public and private markets converging and new opportunities emerging across asset classes, investors are rethinking how to build resilient portfolios for the long term. That's why this episode of Alternative Realities brings together three of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's leading voices: Aaron Mulvihill, Global Alternatives Strategist; Jed Laskowitz, Global Head of Private Markets; and Anton Pil, Head of Global Alternative Investment Solutions. Drawing on insights from over 45 contributors and a $500 billion alternatives platform, the conversation breaks down the key themes shaping the 2026 Alternative Investment Outlook. From the rapid growth of private equity and the evolution of secondary markets to the inflection points in real assets and infrastructure and the renewed momentum in hedge funds, this conversation covers the trends that matter most for investors navigating today's complex environment. Watch the video version on YouTube.  Resources:  For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Dietitians Torwen Eerkens and Aidan Muir discuss the significance of gut microbiome testing. They explore what the gut microbiome is, the potential benefits of testing, the different types of tests available, and when it might be necessary to consider testing. The conversation also touches on the future of gut microbiome testing and the importance of dietary improvements for gut health.   (00:56) - Theoretical Benefits of Microbiome Testing (2:31) - Types of Testing Available (4:32) - When Would Microbiome Testing Be Useful? (8:09) - Alternatives to Microbiome Testing   WEBSITE:  https://www.idealnutrition.com.au/ PODCAST:  https://www.idealnutrition.com.au/podcast/ INSTAGRAM:  https://www.instagram.com/idealnutrition__/?hl=en Our dietitians

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur is joined by Dan Toscano, the firm's Chairman of Markets in Private Equity, unpack how credit markets are changing—and what the AI buildup means for the road ahead.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today is a special edition of our podcast. We are joined by Dan Toscano, Chairman of Markets in Private Equity at Morgan Stanley, and a seasoned practitioner of credit markets over many, many credit cycles. We will get his thoughts on the ongoing evolution and revolution in credit marketsIt's Wednesday, January 7th at 10am in New York. Dan, welcome.Dan Toscano: Glad to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: So, to get our – the listeners familiar with your journey, can you talk a little bit about your experience in the credit markets, and how you got to where we are today?Dan Toscano: Yeah, sure. So, I've been doing this a long time. You used the nice word seasoned. My kids would refer to it as old. But I started in this journey in 1988. And to make a long story short, my first job on Wall Street was buying junk bonds in the infancy of the junk bond market, when most of what we were financing were LBOs. So, if you're familiar with Barbarians at the Gate, one of the first bonds we bought were RJR Nabisco reset notes. And I've been doing this ever since, so over almost four decades now.Vishy Tirupattur: So, the junk bond market evolved into high yield market, syndicated loan market, CLO market, financial crisis. So, talk to us about your experiences during this transition.Dan Toscano: Yeah. I mean, one of the things these markets do is they finance evolution in industries. So, when I think back to the early days of financing leveraged buyouts, they were called bootstrap deals. The first deal I did as an intermediary on Wall Street as opposed to as an investor, was a buyout with Bain Capital in 1993. At the time, Bain Capital had a $600 million AUM private equity platform. Think about that in the scale of what Bain Capital does in private equity today. You know, back then it was corporate carve outs, and trying to make the global economy more efficient. And you remember the rise of the conglomerate. And so, one of the early things we financed a lot of was the de-conglomeration of big corporates. So, they would spin off assets that were not central to the business or the strengths that they had as an organization.So, that was the early days of private equity. There was obviously the telecom build out in the late 90's and the resulting bust. And then into the GFC. And we sit here today with the distinctions of private capital, private credit, public credit, syndicated credit, and all the amazing things that are being financed in, you know, what I think of as the next industrial revolution.Vishy Tirupattur: In terms of things that have changed a lot – a lot also changed following the financial crisis. So, if you dig deep into that one thing that happened was the introduction of leveraged lending guidelines. Can you talk about what leveraged lending guidelines did to the credit markets?Dan Toscano: Yeah, I mean, it was a big change for underwriters because it dictated what you could and couldn't participate in as an underwriter or a lender, and so it really cut off one end of the market that was determined by – and I think the thing most famously attributed to the leveraged lending guidelines was this maximum leverage notion of six times leverage is the cap. Nothing beyond that. And so that really limited the ability for Wall Street firms to underwrite and distribute capital to support those deals.And inadvertently, or maybe by plan, really gave rise to the growth in the private credit market. So, when you think about everything that's going on in the world today, including, which I'm sure we'll talk about, the relaxation of the leveraged lending guidelines, it was really fuel for private credit.Vishy Tirupattur: So private credit, this relaxation that you mentioned, you know, a few weeks ago, the FDIC and the OCC withdrew the leveraged lending guidelines in total. What do you expect that will do to the private credit markets? Will that make private credit market share decrease and bank market share increase?Dan Toscano: I think many people think of these as being mutually exclusive. We've never thought of it that way. It exists more on a continuum. And so, what I think the relaxation of those guidelines or the elimination of those guidelines really frees the banks to participate in the entire continuum, either as lenders or as underwriters.And so, in addition to the opportunity that gives the banks to really find the best solutions for their clients, I think this will also continue the blurring of distinctions between public market credit and private market credit. Because now the banks can participate in all of it. And when you think about what defines in people's minds – public credit versus private credit, in many cases it's driven by what terms look like. Customary terms for a syndicated bond or loan versus a private credit loan.Also, who's participating in it. You know, these things have been blurring, right? There's a cost differential or a perceived cost differential that has been blurring for some time now. That will continue to happen, in my opinion anyway.Vishy Tirupattur: I totally agree with you, Dan, on that. I think not only the distinction between public credit and private credit, but also within the various credit channels – secured, unsecured, securitized, structured – all these distinctions are also blurring. So, in that context, let's talk a little bit more about what private credit's focus has been and where private credit focus will be going forward. So, what we'll call private credit 1.0. Focused predominantly on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. And we now see that potentially changing. What is driving private credit 2.0 in your mind?Dan Toscano: Well, the elephant in the room is digital infrastructure. Absolutely. When you think about the scale of what is happening, the type of capital that's required for the build out, the structure you need around it, the ability to use elements of structure. You mentioned several of them earlier. To come up with an appropriate risk structure for lending is really where the market is heading. When you think about the trillions of dollars that we anticipate is needed for the technology industry to complete this transformation – not just around digital infrastructure, but around everything associated with it.And the big one I think of most often is power, right? So, you need capital to build out sources of power, and you need capital to build out the data centers to be able to handle the compute demand that is expected to be there. This is a scale unlike anything we have ever seen. It is the backbone of what will be the next industrial revolution.We've never seen anything like this in terms of the scale of the capital needed for the transformation that is already underway.Vishy Tirupattur: We are very much on board with this idea as well, Dan, in terms of the scale of the investment, the capital investment that is needed. So, when you look ahead for 2026, what worries you about the ind ustrial revolution financing that is underway?Dan Toscano: Given all that's going on in the world, this massive capital investment that's going on globally around digital infrastructure, we've never seen this before. And so, when I look at the capital raising that has been done in 2025 versus what will be done in 2026, I think one of the differences that we have to be mindful of is – nothing's gone wrong while we were raising capital in 2025 because we were very much in the infancy of these buildouts. Once you get further into these buildouts and the capital raises in 2025 that are funding the development of data centers start to season, problems will emerge. The essence of credit risk is there will be problems and it's really trying to predict and foresee where the problems will be and make sure you can manage your way through them.That is the essence of successful credit investing. And so there will definitely be issues when you think about the scale of the build out that is happening. Even if you look just in the U.S., where you need access to all sorts of commodities to build out. And you know, people focus on chips, but you also need steel and roofing, and importantly labor.And as we talk to people about the build outs, one of the concerns is supply of labor supply and cost of labor. So, when you run into situations where maybe a project is delayed a bit, or the costs are a bit more than what was expected, there will be a reaction. And we haven't had that yet. We will start to see that in 2026 and how investors and the markets react to that, I think will be very important. And I'm a little bit worried that there could be some overreaction because people have trained themselves in 2025 to think of like, ‘I'm operating in a perfect environment,' because we haven't really done anything yet. And now that we've done something, something can and will go wrong. So, you know, we'll see how that plays out.I am very fixated in 2026 on the laws of supply and demand. When I think about what's going on right now, we usually have visibility on demand. And we usually have some level of visibility on supply. Right now, we have neither – and I say that in a positive way. We don't know how big the demand is in the capital world to fund these projects. We don't know how big that can be. And almost with every passing day, the supply – and what we're hearing from our clients about what they need to execute their plans – continues to grow in a way that we don't know where it ends. And the scale, we're talking trillions of dollars, right? Not billions, not millions, but trillions.And so, I look at that – not so much as something I worry about, but something I'm really curious about. Will we run out of money to fund all of the ambitions of the Industrial Revolution? I don't think so. I think money will find great projects, but when you think about the scale of what we're looking at, we've never seen anything like it before. And it will be fascinating to watch as the year goes on.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks Dan. That's very useful. And thanks for taking the time to speak to us and share your wisdom and insights. Dan Toscano: Well, it's great to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today

What if your biggest edge isn't what you buy, but where you hold it? In this episode of the Registered Investment Advisor Podcast, Seth Greene interviews Henry Yoshida, CFP®, Rocket Dollar CEO & Co-Founder,  who shares how his earlier robo-advisor exit to Goldman Sachs and years as an advisor led to a digital platform for self-directed IRAs holding private and alternative assets. Starting his career at Merrill Lynch during the dot-com bust, he built deep retirement expertise and now oversees a trust company with roughly $12B in alternatives and 9,000+ registered investments. Yoshida explains why asset location can outperform asset selection and why retail access to private markets is set to grow.   Key Takeaways: → How Rocket Dollar provides infrastructure while investors source their own deals. → How Rocket Dollar doesn't manufacture or recommend investments. → Why asset location is crucial. → Why innovation is critical as incumbents eye alternatives.   Henry Yoshida, CFP®, is the CEO and Co-Founder of Rocket Dollar. He was previously the founder of venture capital-backed Robo-advisor retirement plan platform Honest Dollar (acquired by Goldman Sachs in 2016), the founder of MY Group LLC (acquired by Captrust), and spent 10 years at Merrill Lynch. Henry is also a Certified Financial Planner and has brought multiple innovative products and methodologies to the market. Yoshida graduated from the University of Texas at Austin and holds an MBA from Cornell University. He lives in Austin with his two daughters.   Connect With Henry:   Website: https://www.rocketdollar.com/ https://bit.ly/4nKw0WT Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fitfinancehenry/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/henryyoshida/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this New Year episode, Dani is joined once again by Dr Shilpa McQuillan, GP, gynaecologist and menopause specialist for an action-packed conversation that gives you the tools and confidence to build your own personalised menopause-after-cancer care plan.If you've ever felt lost in the system, unsure what to ask, or left to manage symptoms on your own, this episode will help you make sense of it all. Together, Dani and Shilpa break down what good care should look like, how clinicians can keep the door open even when HRT isn't an option, and how you can advocate for yourself in appointments.We cover:• What a personalised menopause-after-cancer care plan includes• Key questions to ask — and red flags to look out for• How to look after your bone health, heart health, metabolic risk• Managing menopause symptoms without hormones• Complementary therapies, lifestyle adjustments and realistic strategies• GSM, sexual wellbeing, lubricants, moisturisers and dilators• Mental health support, screening tools and psychological therapiesThis is the episode to take notes on - a practical toolkit to help you start the year with clarity, confidence and a plan.If you're new here, make sure you subscribe, we've got an incredible year coming up.And don't forget to get your copy of Dani's book, Navigating Menopause After Cancer, now a #1 bestseller https://amzn.eu/d/en8LLC9You can find Dr Shilpa McQuillan here on Instagram and https://www.instagram.com/berkshiremenopauseclinic/?hl=en and here on her website www.berkshiremenopauseclinic.comEpisode Highlights:00:00 Intro08:51 "Supporting Patients Through Dialogue"14:01 Individualised Approach to Menopause Symptoms18:32 "Prioritising Patient Care with Follow-Ups"22:56 Understanding HRT Beyond Initial Concerns32:04 "Lifestyle Changes for Menopause Relief"38:36 "HRT Benefits and Alternatives"45:36 "Healthcare Awareness and Early Action"50:56 Assessing Risk Factors in Care56:02 Empowering Bone Health After Menopause01:09:11 Anxiety During Menopause: Common Struggles01:12:29 Practical Local Mental Health SupportConnect with us:For more information and resources visit our website: www.menopauseandcancer.org Or follow us on Instagram @menopause_and_cancerJoin our Facebook group: www.facebook.com/groups/menopauseandcancerchathub

Our Deputy Director of Global Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore discuss the implications of the U.S action in Venezuela for global markets, foreign and domestic policy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the latest events in Venezuela and its implications for global markets.It's Tuesday, January 6th at 10am in New York. So, Ariana, before we get into it: Long time listeners might have noticed in our intro, a changeup in our titles. Ariana, you're stepping in to lead day-to-day public policy research. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And Mike, you're taking on more of a leadership role across the research department globally. Michael Zezas: Right, which is great news for both of us. And because the interaction between public policy choices and financial markets is as critical as ever, and because collaboration is so important to how we do investment research at Morgan Stanley – tapping into expertise and insight wherever we can find it – you're still going to hear from one of – and sometimes both of us – here on Thoughts on the Market on a weekly basis. Ariana Salvatore: And this week is a great example of this dynamic as we start the New Year with investors trying to decide what, if anything, the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela means for the outlook for markets. Michael Zezas: Right. So, to that point, the New Year's barely begun, but it's already brought a dramatic geopolitical situation: The U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro – an event that can have far reaching implications for oil markets, energy, equities, sovereign credit, and politics. Ariana, thinking from the perspective of the investor, what's catching your attention right now? Ariana Salvatore: I think clients have been trying to get their arms around what this means for the future of U.S. foreign policy, as well as domestic policy making here too. On the first point, I would say this isn't necessarily a surprise or out of step with the goals that the Trump administration has been at least rhetorically emphasizing all year. Which is to say we think this is really just another data point in a pre-existing longer term trend toward multipolarity. Remember that involves linkage of economic and national security interest. It comes with its own set of investment themes, many of which we've written about, but one in particular would be elevated levels of defense spending globally, as we're in an increasingly insecure geopolitical world. Another tangible takeaway I would say is on the USMCA review. I think the U.S. has likely even more leverage in the upcoming negotiations, and likely is going to push even harder for Mexico to put up trade barriers or take active steps to limit Chinese investment or influence in the country. Enforcement here obviously will be critical, as we've said. And ultimately, we do still think the review results in a slightly deeper trade integration than we have right now. But it's possible that you see tariffs on non-USMCA compliant goods higher, for example, throughout these talks. Michael Zezas: And does this affect at all your expectations for domestic policy choices from the U.S.? Ariana Salvatore: I think it's important to emphasize here that we're just seeing an increasingly diminished role for Congress to play. The past year has been punctuated by one-off US foreign policy actions and a usage of executive authority over a number of different policy areas like immigration, tariffs, and so on. So, I would say the clearest takeaway on the domestic front is we're seeing a policy making pattern that is faster and more unilateral, right? If you don't need time for consensus building on some of these issues, decisions are being made by a smaller and smaller group of people. That in itself just increases policy uncertainty and risk premia, I would say across the board. But Mike, let's turn it back specifically to Venezuela. One of the most important questions is on – what this all means for global oil markets. What are our strategists saying there? Michael Zezas: Yeah. So, oil markets are the natural first place to look when it comes to the impact of these geopolitical events. And the answer more often than not is that the oil market tends not to react too much. And that seems to be the case here following the weekend's Venezuela developments. That's because we don't expect there to be much short-term supply impact. Over the medium-term risks to Venezuela's production skew higher. But while Venezuela famously holds one of the largest oil reserves in the world – it's about 17 percent of the world's oil reserves – in terms of production, its contribution is relatively small. It's less than 1 percent of global output. So, among the top 10 reserve holders, Venezuela is by far the smallest producer. So, you wouldn't expect there to be any real meaningful supply impact in the markets, at least in the near term. So, one area where there has been price movement is in the market for Venezuela sovereign bonds. They have been priced for low recovery values and the potential restructuring that was far off. But now with the U.S. more involved and the prospect of greater foreign investment into the country's oil production, investors have been bidding up the bond price in anticipation of potentially a sooner restructuring and higher recovery value for the bonds. Ariana Salvatore: Right. And to that point, our EM sovereign credit strategists anticipate limited spillover to broader LatAm sovereign credit. Any differentiation is more likely to reflect degrees of alignment with the U.S. and exposure to oil prices and potential increases in Venezuelan production, which could leave Mexico and Columbia among relative under underperformers. Michael Zezas: Right. And this seems like it's going to be an important theme all year because the U.S. actions in Venezuela seem to be a demonstration of the government's willingness to intervene in the Western Hemisphere to protect its interests more broadly. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. So, it's a topic that we could be spending much more time talking about this year. Michael Zezas: Great. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen; and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses key catalysts that investors may be missing, but that are likely to boost U.S. equities in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026. It's Monday, January 5th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The New Year is usually a time to look forward. But today, I want to take a step back and talk about what the market is missing. A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact. There's been a lot of focus on individual positives—solid earnings growth, further Fed easing—but in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another. Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction. And as we head into mid-term elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.Importantly, this isn't a market that's already priced for the outcomes I envision. Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant. That combination—of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning—is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery. I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, and small- and mid-cap stocks. Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher. This doesn't look late-cycle to me—it looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery. One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business-cycle indicators, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. There's been a reluctance to press cyclical trades until those gauges clearly re-accelerate; and beneath that hesitation is a lingering anxiety that the U.S. economy could even slip back into a growth scare. My view is different. I believe a three year rolling recession ended with Liberation Day. If that's true, then the moderate softness we're now witnessing in lagging labor data is constructive for equities because it keeps the Fed leaning dovish for longer and more aggressive—a positive for equities. I see the second half of 2025 as the bottoming process for key macro indicators; with 2026 shaping up as a year of re-acceleration. Longer-cycle analysis supports this. Specifically, the 45-month cycle of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index points to a rebound. That recovery has been delayed—but not cancelled. Another tailwind that doesn't get nearly enough attention is energy prices. Gasoline prices in particular are sitting near five-year lows, which is providing real economic relief for lower- and middle-income consumers. That cushion matters, especially as other parts of the economy firm. This past weekend's events in Venezuela argue for lower oil prices for longer. From a sector standpoint, Financials stand out as the key beneficiary of deregulation and these stocks have been great performers over the past year in anticipation of these changes. I think there is more to go in 2026. Housing could be another important piece of the recovery. Subdued wage growth and falling rents may pressure home prices, while some builders are prioritizing volume over margins. While that may cap profitability for the builders, it could unlock housing velocity and feed into a more dovish inflation backdrop. Of course, there are also risks. Liquidity has been our top concern since September, and markets have reflected that through weakness in speculative assets. The good news is that the Fed has responded by ending quantitative tightening early and restarting asset purchases through the Reserve Management Program. This effectively adds liquidity to a system that was showing signs of stress this past several months. Another risk is a renewed slowdown in AI CapEx, particularly as markets demand clearer payback from debt-funded spending. And geopolitically, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela raises new questions. Strategically, it reinforces U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and supports our ‘Run It Hot' thesis—but the key wildcard remains whether China chooses to react. Net-net, we think the balance of risks and rewards still favor leaning into this early-cycle recovery and our bullish outlook for US equities in 2026. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

On the first episode of Hands-On Tech for 2026, Mikah helps Andrew out with some recommendations to replace his home theater PC (HTPC) so that his family can watch old home movies easily! Send in your questions for Mikah to answer during the show to hot@twit.tv. Host: Mikah Sargent Download or subscribe to Hands-On Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/hands-on-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Club TWiT members can discuss this episode and leave feedback in the Club TWiT Discord. Sponsor: NetSuite.com/HOT

On the first episode of Hands-On Tech for 2026, Mikah helps Andrew out with some recommendations to replace his home theater PC (HTPC) so that his family can watch old home movies easily! Send in your questions for Mikah to answer during the show to hot@twit.tv. Host: Mikah Sargent Download or subscribe to Hands-On Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/hands-on-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Club TWiT members can discuss this episode and leave feedback in the Club TWiT Discord. Sponsor: NetSuite.com/HOT

Our U.S. Economist Heather Berger discusses how larger tax refunds in 2026 could boost income and help support consumer balance sheets throughout the year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market and Happy New Year! I'm Heather Berger, from Morgan Stanley's US Economics Team. On today's episode – why U.S. consumers can expect higher tax refunds, and what that means for the overall economy. It's Friday, January 2nd, at 10am in New York.As we kick off 2026, it's not just a fresh start. It's also the time when tax refund season is right around the corner. For many of us, those refunds aren't just numbers on a page; they shape the way we budget for many everyday expenses. The timing and size of our refunds this year could make a real difference in how much we're able to save, spend, or get ahead on bills.In the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, this year's tax refund season is shaping up to be bigger than usual. The new fiscal bill packed in a variety of tax cuts for consumers. It also included spending cuts to programs such as SNAP benefits and Medicaid, but most of those cuts don't pick up until later this decade. Altogether, this means that we'll likely see personal incomes and spending power get a boost in 2026.Many of the new deductions and tax credits for consumers in the bill were made retroactive to the 2025 fiscal year. These include deductions for tips and overtime, a higher child tax credit, an increased senior deduction, and a higher cap on state and local tax deductions, among others. The retroactive portion of these measures should be reflected in tax refunds early this year. Overall, we're expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15 to 20 percent on average. And different groups will benefit from different parts of the bill. For example, the higher state and local tax cap is likely to help high-income consumers the most, while deductions for tips and overtime will be most valuable to middle-income earners.Historically, U.S. consumers receive about 30 to 45 percent of tax refunds by the end of February, with then 60 to 70 percent arriving by the end of March. Because of the new tax provisions, we're anticipating a noticeable boost in personal income during the first quarter of the year. While we do also expect this legislation to encourage higher spending, it's unlikely that we'll see spending rise as sharply as income right away. According to surveys, most consumers say they use their refunds mainly for saving or paying down debt. This can lead to healthier balance sheets, which is shown by higher prepayment rates and fewer loan delinquencies during the tax refund season.When people choose to spend all or some of their tax refunds, they typically put that money toward everyday needs, travel, new clothes, or home improvements. Looking ahead, we do still see some near-term headwinds to spending, such as expected increases in inflation from tariffs and the expiration of the Affordable Care Act credits, which will most affect low-income consumers. As we progress throughout the year, though, we're anticipating steady growth in real consumer spending as the labor market stabilizes, inflation decelerates, and lagged effects of easier monetary policy flow through. On top of that, this year's larger tax refunds should give another lift to household spending.The boost to spending, along with other corporate provisions in the bill, should give the broader economy a push this year too. We expect the bill as a whole to support GDP growth in 2026.  But it then becomes a drag on growth in later years when more of the spending cuts take effect.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The calendar flipped, but the rules didn't. In this New Year Friday Q&A, Don tackles listener questions on longevity annuities (QLACs), legacy insurance mistakes, advice-only advisory services, and the growing trend toward complex fixed-income systems and alternative investments. From insurance math that favors the house to eye-watering fees dressed up as innovation, the message stays consistent: simplicity beats sophistication, fees matter, and global diversification works the same whether you live in Seattle or Spain. 0:00 New year, new Q&A — and why January changes nothing 1:30 QLACs explained and why the math still favors insurers 2:49 Longevity odds vs. guaranteed income myths 5:15 Trapped in a bad annuity — ride it out or cash out? 8:53 “Magic money,” bonuses, and negative real returns 10:46 Advice-only firms: Abundo Wealth and paying for simplicity 13:44 Bond ETFs vs. CD and Treasury ladder strategies 17:39 When “systematic” fixed income starts to smell like gimmicks 18:53 Alternatives, private credit, and outrageous expense ratios 22:18 Why Don defaults to simplicity — every time 24:35 Global diversification: same advice, any country 27:38 Happy New Year — and why boring still works Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Original Release Date: November 25, 2025Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date: December 3, 2025Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York.So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market.Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question?Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S.And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well.Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling.All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Original Release Date: November 13, 2025Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emmet, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmet, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.