Podcasts about Alternatives

Live from Morgan Stanley's Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026. In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market. It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists' base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026, In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followed by a recovery in the second half. Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. And as in recent years, global outcomes will likely hinge on U.S.-led effects and their spillovers. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves. A front-loaded rally as the Fed cuts 50 basis points, pushing 10-year yields lower by mid-year before drifting higher into the fourth quarter. Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve. The dollar follows a similar arc, softening mid-year, and then rebounding into the year end. AI financing moves to the forefront putting credit markets in focus, a topic that has come up repeatedly in every single meeting I've had in Singapore so far. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments. Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. 2025 was a tough year to navigate, and while we are constructive on 2026, it won't be a walk in the park. The challenges ahead look different. Less about macro shocks, more about micro shifts and market nuance. More details in our outlooks published just a few days ago. Thanks for listening If you like the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

If the Affordable Care Act subsidies are allowed to expire at the end of the year, premiums would double for the average enrollee, with some paying over $1,000 more every month. The subsidies were at the heart of the recent government shutdown, but Democrats were not successful in securing a deal. William Brangam spoke with Jonathan Cohn and Brian Blaze for their views on the debate. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Adam, Joanna, and Zach discuss a recent column by Esther Mobley in the San Francisco Chronicle positing that there are simply too many wineries in California for the current market to support. Is this in fact true? If so, what happens next? Please remember to subscribe to, rate, and review The VinePair Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your episodes, and send any questions, comments, critiques, or suggestions to podcast@vinepair.com. Thanks for listening, and cheers!Zach is reading: What Exactly Is a ‘Turbo Guinness?'Joanna is reading: The Protein Era Is Coming for Your Happy HourAdam is reading: 10 Alternatives to Gravner, Italy's Iconic Orange WineInstagram: @adamteeter, @jcsciarrino, @zgeballe, @vinepair Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode, Aaron Mulvihill is joined by Jared Gross, Head of Institutional Portfolio Strategy, who brings over 30 years of experience providing insights and solutions to institutional clients—including corporate and public pensions, endowments and foundations—and Tina Anstett, ERISA Strategist, and an attorney with more than three decades of expertise in workplace retirement plans. Together, they will discuss the implications of the President's recent executive order, “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors” and address the questions that have emerged as a result. They will explore what this order means for retirement plans and who stands to be affected, and weigh the potential benefits and risks of adding alternative assets to plan portfolios. For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

"I want to age timelessly...the person that you're most attracted to is the person who's got that amazing energy." Cathy Goldstein   Kathy Goldstein is a leader in the field of functional aesthetics, recognized for her innovative work in holistic beauty and longevity. With nearly 40 years of experience in holistic medicine, acupuncture, and skincare innovation, Kathy has developed the Natural Facelift System. Her pioneering approach integrates energy medicine, facial expression science, and functional aesthetics to enhance not only skin vitality but also brain function and emotional well-being. Kathy is also a sought-after speaker and a thought leader who has profoundly contributed to the understanding of holistic beauty practices.   Episode Summary: In this enlightening episode of "All My Health There Is Hope," host Jana Short is joined by Kathy Goldstein, a visionary in holistic skincare and functional aesthetics. Together, they delve into Kathy's groundbreaking Natural Facelift System, which goes beyond traditional beauty treatments to incorporate elements of energy medicine and facial expression science. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the interconnectedness of physical appearance, emotional health, and overall well-being through Kathy's innovative use of biophoton communication and frequency-based cellular repair. This deep dive into holistic beauty unveils new perspectives on aging and offers listeners exciting alternatives to conventional practices like Botox. Throughout the episode, Kathy candidly shares her personal health journey, revealing how her experiences with Crohn's disease led her to explore holistic methods that prioritize true healing over mere symptom management. A significant portion of the conversation addresses the potential downsides of Botox, particularly its impact on facial muscles and emotional expression. Kathy emphasizes the significance of facial expressions in emotional communication and cognitive processing, thus encouraging listeners to consider more natural approaches to skincare and self-care. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in holistic health, beauty innovation, and the science of emotional connections.   Key Takeaways: Holistic beauty transcends physical appearance; it integrates emotional and cognitive well-being. Traditional anti-aging treatments like Botox may have unintended consequences on facial communication and emotional processing. Kathy Goldstein's Natural Facelift System combines energy medicine and functional aesthetics for a comprehensive approach to skin health. Understanding and enhancing facial expressions contribute to improved emotional intelligence and relationship building. Natural skincare solutions, including frequency-based treatments, offer effective alternatives to invasive procedures.   Resources: https://truenergyskincare.com/ https://www.instagram.com/truenergyskincare/ https://www.facebook.com/truenergyskincare/   ✨ Enjoying the show? Stay inspired long after the episode ends! Jana is gifting you **free subscriptions to Ageless Living Magazine and **Best Holistic Life Magazine—two of the fastest-growing publications dedicated to holistic health, personal growth, and living your most vibrant life. Inside, you'll find powerful stories, expert insights, and practical tools to help you thrive—mind, body, and soul.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Get an inside look at what's shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I'm reading—straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter.  -----  In this rebroadcast, Peter sits in the guest chair to explain why he rarely recommends private markets—and the specific situations where they do belong. He lays out a clear filter built around liquidity, purpose, access, and behavior so you can decide whether private investments fit in your plan.    Listen now and learn: ► A simple decision framework for alternative investments ► Why Peter is more concerned with implementing a bad idea than missing out on a good one ► What makes venture capital investing hard for most investors ► The implications of more "democratized" alternative investment products   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

What is Pommeau? Pommeau is a: fortified blend of fresh apple must (unfermented) and apple brandy (typically Calvados in Normandy or Lambig in Brittany). The unfermented apple juice and brandy are combined before fermentation, which halts the process entirely and preserves natural sweetness. By law in France, Pommeau must be aged a minimum of 18 months in oak and produced within designated regions. It's rich, amber-colored, and served as an apéritif. It is consider to be a French heritage drink shaped by decades of refinement and protected standards. When did Pommeau receive AOC status? Pommeau received its official Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC) status in 1991, formalizing the traditional method and legally protecting what can and cannot be called Pommeau within France. And in America? If you ask what Pommeau is in the United States, the answer is: nothing defined. There is no legal TTB definition, no standard of identity, and no trade agreement protecting the name. Yet hundreds of U.S. labels already use the word…sometimes accurately, sometimes loosely, often inconsistently. So the question becomes, "What happens when a French classic with strict rules lands on U.S. labels with no rules at all?" That's the conversation American isn't having… yet. In this episode, Ria speaks with alcohol beverage attorney Lindsey Zahn to unpack what it means to use the word Pommeau in the U.S.—legally, culturally, ethically—and what cider makers and consumers should consider going forward. What happens when a French classic with strict rules lands on U.S. labels with no rules at all? That's the conversation America isn't having… yet. In this episode, Ria speaks with alcohol beverage attorney Lindsey Zahn to unpack what it means to use the word Pommeau in the U.S.—legally, culturally, ethically—and what cider makers and consumers should consider going forward. Key Topics Covered What Pommeau legally means in France Why the TTB has no definition for Pommeau How hundreds of U.S. labels were approved without consistency The difference between fortified cider vs. Pommeau Why a COLA approval does not protect you from trademark or trade disputes U.S.–EU trade agreements and why Pommeau is not protected Risks for current makers using "Pommeau" on labels Why "American Pommeau," "Pommeau-style," or accurate class/type statements may reduce risk The opportunity for U.S. cider associations to create a new American term A call for a naming contest—what the U.S. cider world could build together Why truth in labeling matters beyond regulatory compliance Why this conversation needed to happen…ten years ago Contact info for Lindsey Zahn P.C. Website: https://www.zahnlawpc.com Previous Cider Chat episode with Lindsey : Episode 85 Lindsey Zahn on Cider Law TTB Labeling Resources: https://www.ttb.gov 00:00 Introduction and Common Misconceptions 00:23 Meet the Host and Guest 01:35 Episode Overview: Focus on Pommeau 03:13 Cider Tours Announcement 06:58 Listener Support and Sponsors 08:40 Main Discussion: Legal Aspects of Pommeau 25:34 Trademark Rights and Labeling Concerns 27:34 The Importance of Due Diligence in Labeling 28:46 Pomo: A Gray Area in Cider Labeling 30:30 Alternatives to Using 'Pomo' 32:36 Truth in Labeling and Production Methods 36:08 Advice for Cider Producers 38:39 Role of Cider Associations 46:08 Final Thoughts and Call to Action Mentions in this Cider Chat Totally Cider Tours  

Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?Serena Tang: In terms of, I think the strategy outlook itself, a big shift has been what we think drive investor focus the most. Our strategy mid-year outlook had focused heavily on global macro risks, right? Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier.I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it's very much more about asset specific stories. And yes, you know, to your point about being, bullish on U.S. equities, we've maintained that view this time round and believe that U.S. equities can generally do better than rest of world.As you know, Mike Wilson, a colleague and chief U.S. equity strategist, he has a price target of 7800 for the S&P 500 index …Seth Carpenter: Wow.Serena Tang: Beating the expected returns from other regional equities by like quite a bit. So that's not changed. But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we've also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier.I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy. But there's also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay. So, as you're coming up with these strategies and these recommendations in lots of ways, it just relies on forecasting. And I have to say I'm sympathetic to how hard forecasting is, especially when it comes to the future. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy.So, with that as a backdrop, nothing is for sure. But where would you say your highest conviction calls are when it comes to investing in 2026?Serena Tang: Well, as I mentioned, we like U.S. equities and that remains a very high conviction call for us. [I] sort of dug through the details of that already. And so, I want to turn to a[n]other high conviction view, which is curve steepening. We see pretty material U.S. treasury curve steepening over the next year. I think even as a macro strategist, actually expect yields at least in the backend to be mostly range bound. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.Seth Carpenter: So that's super helpful in terms of the places where you're convicted. Let me be perhaps a little bit unfair because nothing is in fact certain. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there've got to be things where we're either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say?Serena Tang: So, one of them really is AI investment cycle abruptly ending. And this has been a topic of huge debate in all of the investor meetings that we've had over the last several weeks. Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. And of course that would likely pressure U.S. equities, I think given hyperscalers index weight. But could weirdly enough benefit IG credit by reducing issuance, which has been the main driver of wider spreads in our forecast. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it's not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view.Given, I think there's still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns.The last risk, I think, to our asset allocation, is really the Fed. Either the FOMC not easing further over the next 12 months or if it changes its reaction function. And I think both of those will have very different implications of what happens to the front end of the yield curve. So, my question to you, Seth, is what do you see as the probability around both of those scenarios?Seth Carpenter: Look, with the data that we have before the government shut down, it was clear there was a tension. Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. Employment data were getting weaker and weaker, and the Fed has decided to start cutting to err on the side of insulating against further deterioration in the labor market.So, one thing that could upend our forecast is that the real signal is from the spending. Spending stays strong, the labor market eventually catches up to the stronger spending, and we start to see job gains come back. If that happens, especially with inflation now running notably above the Fed's target, I just don't really think we're going to get anywhere near the number of rate cuts that we forecast or that are already priced into market. So, you'd have to see a reversal.How likely is that you can't rule it out? I'd say 20 percent or something like that. Maybe a little bit more. On the other hand, to the downside. I wonder if what you're getting at a little bit is there's going to be some turnover in the personnel at the Fed. And do we have to worry about a fundamentally different reaction function from the Fed going forward and cutting rates aggressively, even if the macro considerations don't warrant? Is that really what you were getting at?Serena Tang: Yes. I think that has been the question on the forefront of investors' minds…Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I think that's a real question. The way I look at it is Chair Powell is in charge of the Fed now. His term goes through May of next year. And so, until we get to the middle of next year, I don't really think there's any fundamental change in how the Fed does business. But it really does seem like we're going to have a new Fed chair in June of next year. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that's how policy is decided. And so, if there was a new chair who really, really, really wanted to take policy in a truly unorthodox way, I also don't think that's really feasible over the second half of next year – because there just won't have been that much turnover in terms of the personnel of the Fed. That's how we're looking at it for now. I really don't think that latter version of the world is a big risk. That said, I'm going to throw it back to you [be]cause I always have to get the last word.You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. But one thing I didn't hear – and we do have a global investor base – Is about currencies and specifically the dollar.So, this time last year, the team made a pretty bold call that the dollar would depreciate a great deal. And here we are and the dollar has come off a lot on net over this year. That stabilized a little bit. Maybe not for the whole year [be]cause that kind of forecasting is hard for currencies. But what do you see over the next few months called the next half year for the dollar? Is it going to continue the trend or do you think we should see a reversal?Serena Tang: So, we do think the dollar will continue its trend downwards from here to the middle of next year. And I know, I know. There's been a lot of discussion, there's been a lot of debate around whether the dollar has basically stopped where we are. But the thing is, you know, going back to what you mentioned around the path for growth in the U.S. and unemployment in the U.S. – if we do see softer economic data in the first half of next year, that can drive the dollar downwards. In fact, we're once again, more bearish than consensus on the dollar by the middle of next year.Seth Carpenter: Got it. All right. That's super helpful. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.Serena Tang: Always a pleasure, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

(Disclaimer: Click 'more' to see ad disclosure) Geobreeze Travel is part of an affiliate sales network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites, such as MileValue.com. This compensation may impact how and where links appear on this site. This site does not include all financial companies or all available financial offers. Terms apply to American Express benefits and offers. Enrollment may be required for select American Express benefits and offers. Visit americanexpress.com to learn more.  ➤ Free points 101 course (includes hotel upgrade email template)https://geobreezetravel.com/freecourse  ➤ Free credit card consultations https://airtable.com/apparEqFGYkas0LHl/shrYFpUr2zutt5515 ➤ Seats.Aero: https://geobreezetravel.com/seatsaero ➤ Request a free personalized award search tutorial: https://go.geobreezetravel.com/ast-form If you are interested in supporting this show when you apply for your next card, check out https://geobreezetravel.com/cards and if you're not sure what card is right for you, I offer free credit card consultations athttps://geobreezetravel.com/consultations!Timestamps:00:00 Introduction to Freddy01:17 Freddy's Journey into Points and Miles03:05 Digital Nomad Life and Travel Experiences04:54 Strategies for Booking Flights to Latin America07:45 Challenges and Alternatives in Booking with Points17:24 Avianca Life Miles: Pros and Cons36:09 Final Tips and ConclusionYou can find Julia at: ➤ Free course: https://julia-s-school-9209.thinkific.com/courses/your-first-points-redemption➤ Website: https://geobreezetravel.com/➤ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geobreezetravel/➤ Credit card links: https://www.geobreezetravel.com/cards➤ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/geobreezetravelYou can find Freddy at:➤ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pointspanda/ ➤ Website: https://pointspanda.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Opinions expressed here are the author's alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, hotel, airline, or other entity. This content has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of the entities included within the post. The content of this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “Welcome to the Dollhouse”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 17A:“Anatahan” (Josef von Sternberg, 1953)“Ms. 45” (Abel Ferrara, 1981)“And God Created Woman” (Roger Vadim, 1956)“Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid” (Sam Peckinpah, 1973)“The Wild Bunch” (Sam Peckinpah, 1969)“Tower” (Keith Maitland, 2016)“The Deadly Tower” (Jerry Jameson, 1975)Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 17A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

SSRI prescriptions are more common than ever—but how much do we really understand about how they work, their true efficacy, and their potential downsides? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the world of SSRIs, breaking down their mechanism of action and why their use has skyrocketed in recent years.   We unpack the growing concern around emotional blunting, a well-documented effect that can leave individuals feeling flat, disconnected, or lacking drive. You'll learn why the serotonin deficiency model falls short, what SSRIs actually do in the brain, and why so many people are placed on them without a root-cause approach. We also explore powerful food-as-medicine and lifestyle strategies proven to support mood: from low-glycemic eating and amino acid repletion, to gut health, micronutrients, and more. If you're looking to understand the full picture of SSRIs and discover evidence-backed alternatives for mental wellness, this episode is a must-listen.   Also in this episode:  Free Detox Webinar Naturally Nourished Black Friday Starts Now - use code SAVE10 for 10% off all supplements Naturally Nourished Academy Now Enrolling with Early Bird Pricing Through 12/31 Give the Gift of Wellness with Naturally Nourished Gift Cards Episode 160: Neurotransmitters Part 1 The Anti Anxiety Diet What is Serotonin Sleep Support Low vs. High Serotonin What are SSRIs? Fu-Ming Zhou, Yong Liang, Ramiro Salas, Lifen Zhang, Mariella De Biasi, and John A. Dani: "Corelease of Dopamine and Serotonin from Striatal Dopamine Terminals" SSRIs and Violent Crime Associations between selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and violent crime in adolescents, young, and older adults - a Swedish register-based study - PubMed Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Violent Crime: A Cohort Study | PLOS Medicine How to Naturally Boost Serotonin and Support Mood Protein Whey Protect Magnesium Role of magnesium supplementation in the treatment of depression: A randomized clinical trial | PLOS One Magnesium supplementation beneficially affects depression in adults with depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials Relax and Regulate MethylFolate Assessing Effects of l-Methylfolate in Depression Management: Results of a Real-World Patient Experience Trial MethylComplete Movement Effect of exercise for depression: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials | The BMJ Gaba GabaCalm Keto for Mental Health The use of the ketogenic diet in the treatment of psychiatric disorders - PMC Probiotics as Natures Prozac Acceptability, Tolerability, and Estimates of Putative Treatment Effects of Probiotics as Adjunctive Treatment in Patients With Depression: A Randomized Clinical Trial | Depressive Disorders | JAMA Psychiatry Probiotic Challenge Protocol   Sponsors for this episode:  This episode is sponsored by FOND Bone Broth, your sous chef in a jar. FOND's bone broths and tallows are produced in small batches with premium ingredients from verified regenerative ranches. Their ingredients are synergistically paired for maximum absorption, nutritional benefit, and flavor. Use code ALIMILLERRD to save at https://fondbonebroth.com/ALIMILLERRD.   

Brooklyn based – Brooklyn MI that is – singer songwriter, contributor to the feeding of hungry people who prioritize organic produce, multi-instrumentalist, and all around good guy, Billy King joins me at Grove Studios for a chat about his new record, Chill.Learn a bit about the difference between the family farm he works on and the similarly named produce seller in the area, the Hollerfest Music Festival that takes place on the family farm, hear an as of yet unreleased song and more.All songs written by Billy KingMakes Me WonderTruth LiesChillSnow in NOLA.More about Billy King: https://billykingdom.com/More about Acoustic Alternatives: https://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesBook your session at Grove Studios: https://grovestudios.space

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar dig into what it means to be useful rather than just right at work, exploring how communication, empathy, and impact matter more than technical precision as careers mature. They share candid lessons from their own paths—CJ's focus on making others look good to earn promotions and Kyle's evolution into a domain expert through public writing—before unpacking what separates good from great VPs of Sales with insights from Pavilion founder Sam Jacobs. The conversation then shifts to OpenAI's “too big to fail” claims, the economic ripple effects of AI infrastructure spending, and how finance leaders can stay grounded in reality. Rounding out the episode, the hosts preview their latest research—CJ's “Agentic Finance” report on AI in the finance stack and Kyle's 2025 SaaS Benchmarks—and close with lighthearted banter about founder age stats, home maintenance mishaps, and the price of professional Christmas lights—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://sarahcharlton.substack.com/p/from-being-right-to-being-usefulhttps://www.highalpha.com/saas-benchmarkshttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stackhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/finance-in-2030https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-algorithm-will-see-you-now/https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-ceo-sam-altman-forecasts-20-billion-annualized-revenue-yearhttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/your-pricing-is-broken—RELATED EPISODES:When the marketing math doesn't math | with Emily Kramerhttps://youtu.be/sSuoV_YSrlwGetting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0How To Win at Early Stage Sales With the Guy Who Helped Take Snyk From $0 to $100M+https://youtu.be/VKrZCte8fyM996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:18 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome00:05:09 Flight Cancellation and Airport Chaos00:07:58 Being Right vs. Being Useful00:11:17 Getting Promoted Early by Making Others Look Good00:15:25 What Separates a Good VP of Sales from a Great One00:18:24 Sales Leaders as Capital Allocators00:21:14 The Organizational Tax of Sales Support00:22:33 Is OpenAI Too Big to Fail?00:25:31 AI Investments, Alternatives, and Market Impact00:27:50 Bailouts and Economic Reality00:28:20 Agentic Finance and the AI-Driven Finance Stack00:31:43 SaaS Benchmarks Report 2025 Overview00:33:59 Growth Rates by ARR Tier and Scale00:35:40 AI's Impact on Engineering Teams00:37:45 Age and Startup Success00:39:42 Building Durable Businesses Over Time00:41:25 Something You Tried This Week – HVAC Cleaning00:43:19 Outsourcing Holiday Cheer – Professional Light Installation00:47:08 Credits – Mostly Growth Closing Remarks—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That's why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #StartupFinance #AIPodcast #SaaSLeadership #GoToMarket This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “The Fabulous Baron Munchausen”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 15A:“Westworld” (Michael Crichton, 1973)“The Empire Strikes Back” (Irvin Kershner, 1980)“Life of Pi” (Ang Lee, 2012) Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 15A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “Joker: Folie à Deux”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 16A:“Christmas Eve in Miller's Point” (Tyler Thomas Taormina, 2024)“On Cinema at the Cinema” (Tim Heidecker and Gregg Turkington, 2011-present)“White Christmas” (Michael Curtiz, 1954)“The Devil in Miss Jones” (Gerard Damiano, 1973)“Boogie Nights” (Paul Thomas Anderson, 1997)“The Intouchables” (Éric Toledano and Olivier Nakache, 2011)“The Upside” (Neil Burger, 2017)Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 16A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Most people spend their lives working harder, saving longer, and praying Wall Street will take care of them. Anthony Faso and Cameron Christiansen—co-founders of Infinite Wealth Consultants—have lived that lie, seen it crumble, and replaced it with something far better. Today, they expose how conventional financial advice keeps professionals dependent and uncertain—and how the Infinite Banking Concept flips the entire system. Through tax-free growth, liquidity, and self-directed leverage, this approach lets you become your own banker and build assets that serve your timeline, not someone else's. If you like this episode, here are more episodes we think you'll enjoy: Ep #521 - Should I Self-Direct My IRAs? – Alternatives to the 401K and Traditional Investments – Mat Sorensen Ep #560 – The End of Cheap Money – 5 Rules To Thrive In The Next Decade – David's Monopodcast Check out the show notes for more information!   P.S. Whenever you're ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you're closer than you think): 1. Schedule a Call with My Team: If you're tired of running on the hamster wheel, and are looking for a proven blueprint to create more freedom and reduce dependency on your practice income, schedule a call with my team to learn more. 2. Get Your Dentist Retirement Survival Guide: The winds of economic change are here, and now is the time to move to higher ground. This guide gives you the steps to protect your retirement, your family, and your peace of mind. Get the 25-point checklist here. 3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard: Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard.

Host Brian Walsh takes up ImpactAlpha's top stories with editor David Bank. Up this week: Instead of 50 year mortgages, actual solutions to make homeownership affordable; The case of the missing $54 billion in climate finance; And, highlights from this week's call, on plugging the financing gap for growth businesses in Africa.Story links:“From affordable home ownership to ‘fair-share appreciation' and generational wealth,” by David Bank and Roodgally Senatus.“The case of the missing $54 billion in development banks' climate financing," by Jessica Pothering. All of our call roundups: https://impactalpha.com/calls/

Host Brian Walsh takes up ImpactAlpha's top stories with editor David Bank. Up this week: Instead of 50 year mortgages, actual solutions to make homeownership affordable; The case of the missing $54 billion in climate finance; And, highlights from this week's call, on plugging the financing gap for growth businesses in Africa.Story links:“⁠From affordable home ownership to ‘fair-share appreciation' and generational wealth⁠,” by David Bank and Roodgally Senatus.“⁠The case of the missing $54 billion in development banks' climate financing⁠," by Jessica Pothering. All of our call roundups: ⁠https://impactalpha.com/calls/⁠

Botox curious? Gretch Elizabeth is a Botox injury advocate raising awareness about hidden risk and the urgent need for informed consent.New episodes of Welcome to Wellness released every Friday!Hyperlinked show notes at https://www.ashleydeeley.com/w2w/botoxEpisode brought to you by: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Alive Waters⁠⁠⁠⁠ (Code: ASHLEY)Episode brought to you by: ⁠⁠⁠⁠My Pure Water⁠⁠⁠⁠ (CODE: Ashley5)Episode brought to you by:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ VieLight⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠Code: DEELEYA25VL)6:54 The Therapeutic Use of Botulinum Toxin9:15 Personal Story: Gretch's Sister and Botulism12:26 Understanding the Risks of Botox15:28 The Impact of Botulism on Health18:26 Legal and Ethical Considerations of Botox Use20:51 Alternatives to Botox and Natural Remedies36:55 Bee venom roller37:15 f49 (botox in a bottle)38:27 Paracress39:20 The Importance of Clean Beauty39:52 Facial Yoga and Anti-Aging Techniques41:20 Gracefully Aging: Embracing Wrinkles43:28 Alternatives to Botox: Exploring Natural Options44:30 Understanding Botox and Its Risks47:18 Personal Stories and Healing Journeys49:21 Counterfeit Botox: A Growing Concern52:11 Unique Beauty Practices and Ingredients57:38 Safety in Beauty Products: What to Watch ForWhere to find Gretch & Botox Injury Info:WebsiteFacebookInstagramWhere to find Ashley Deeley:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Website⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠hello@ashleydeeley.com

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

Are you ready to seriously level up your email marketing this Black Friday season? I sat down with Dawn Richardson from Flodesk, where we unpack everything from plan changes to new automation features, and why now is the time to leverage your email list.Listen in as we explore the integration options available, how you can use ManyChat to grow your email list, and what features to take advantage of within Flodesk to make the most of your Black Friday campaigns!Find It Quickly00:24 - Meet Dawn Richardson 01:08 - Flodesk Unlimited Plan Changes04:15 - Cost Comparison and Feature Needs06:37 - Exploring Flodesk's New Features09:40 - Integrations with Other Platforms13:22 - ManyChat Integration Benefits17:05 - Flodesk Checkout Capabilities20:04 - - Upcoming Features and Payment Plans20:51 - Checkout Platform Benefits21:42 - Selling Digital Products for Photographers24:46 - Engagement Strategies with Polls26:41 - Google's Algorithm Changes and Email Engagement32:09 - Black Friday Email Marketing TipsMentioned in this EpisodeFlodesk - Get 50% Off Your First YearKitThrivecartEpisode 106: Beyond Discounts - 3 Alternatives for Creating an Awesome Black Friday OfferConnect with DawnFlodesk - Get 50% Off Your First Year@itsdawnrichardsontechsavvycreative.com

Bill Pauley of The Pauley Agency joins to talk about an alternative to Obamacare.

The first nine months of 2025 were a whiplash. Since the April drawdown, stocks, bonds, and international all ripped higher while inflation cooled unevenly and the Fed started cutting. In this Q3 2025 flyover, Gabriel Shahin, CFP® cuts through the noise and shows what actually matters for your portfolio now.What you'll learn:• What changed since April: the snapback across US stocks, bonds, international, and tech—plus why earnings still drive returns.• AI's real impact: productivity gains across sectors vs hype, and how that supports margins for profitable large caps.• Inflation mix: goods down, services sticky; what tariffs and policy shifts could mean for prices.• Rate cuts in context: how markets have historically performed when the Fed is cutting vs pausing or hiking.• Cash drag is real: why 3–4% savings looks weak next to bond yields and diversified portfolio returns.• Bonds are back: why a declining-rate backdrop can lift prices, not just coupons, and how credit/term choices affect risk.• Diversification that works: US, international, and alternatives; why “all-time highs” aren't a sell signal.• Options overlays: when covered calls can help income—and the trade-offs, taxes, and cap-on-upside.• Legacy mutual funds: capital-gain distribution risks from high turnover and how to plan around them.• Factor tilts: adding profitability across large, mid, and small caps to seek higher risk-adjusted returns.Chapters:0:00 Intro and why Q3 positioning matters1:10 What's changed since April3:30 Earnings, GDP, and jobs vs productivity6:10 Inflation layers and policy pressures8:00 Fed cuts and historical market performance10:00 Cash vs bonds vs 60/4012:00 International, dollar, and gold context14:00 Options income overlays16:00 Legacy mutual funds and CG distributions18:00 Alternatives and liquidity trade-offs19:30 Profitability tilts across market caps21:00 Takeaways and next steps

Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this moving Veterans Day episode of Ever Forward Radio, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Benjamin Forest opens up about his personal battle with depression, grief, and identity loss after 25 years of service — and how psychedelics became a catalyst for healing, love, and authentic living. He and Chase explore the mental-health crisis among veterans, the epidemic of loneliness and suppressed emotion in men, and how plant medicine, breathwork, and community can help reconnect us to meaning and purpose. Forest shares insights from his book Trip of a Lifetime: The Psychedelic Guide to Healing, Loving & Living, explaining that true recovery requires vulnerability, relational healing, and learning to open the heart — whether through psychedelics or other integrative practices. Follow Ben @benjamin.forest.bliss Follow Chase @chase_chewning ----- 00:00 – Introduction & U.S. mental-health statistics 02:22 – A cultural depression: loneliness, disconnection & anxiety 04:29 – Playing a role vs. discovering the authentic self 07:07 – The military, identity, and emotional suppression 10:30 – Masculinity, vulnerability, and the loneliness epidemic 13:00 – Grief, alcohol, and the cost of unprocessed emotion 15:30 – Healthy masculinity and belonging after service 18:00 – The biology of belonging & the need for community 20:10 – Losing identity and brotherhood after leaving the military 23:10 – Lessons learned from 25 years in uniform 24:30 – Healing, loving, and living: wounds and relational repair 27:30 – Learning to love well and open the heart 28:45 – Doing life "right" and rediscovering joy 31:00 – Psychedelics as heart-openers & catalysts for healing 34:30 – Veterans leading the way for psychedelic legalization 38:40 – Alternatives to psychedelics: breathwork & somatic therapy 44:00 – Integration: applying lessons after the trip 46:50 – The danger of ego, money, and misuse in plant-medicine circles 49:50 – Writing Trip of a Lifetime and lessons learned 54:30 – Advice to young service members: asking for help is strength 56:16 – What "Ever Forward" means to Benjamin Forest ----- Episode resources: Watch and subscribe on YouTube Learn more about Benjamin

In part two of our interview series with Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs, we consider how Goldman Sachs is positioning itself for scale and just how far the industry is from truly democratizing private markets.

The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a period of global uncertainty. One estimate from McKinsey & Co. suggests that demand for new and updated digital infrastructure will require an estimated $19 trillion in investments through 2040. Much of this capital will come from institutional investors. Supply-demand dynamics, the impact of new innovations, and the pace of adoption will help guide investors as they determine how to allocate their exposure to AI. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores growth opportunities and potential challenges across the AI ecosystem. Experts discuss sectors that stand to benefit from AI, intense demand for AI infrastructure, managing obsolescence risk, and whether AI can deliver on expectations for productivity and returns. Our guests are: Richard Waters, Technology Writer-at-Large for the Financial Times Owen Hyde, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Jennison Learn more about the AI boom by visiting Jennison's AI Resource Center (https://www.jennison.com/campaignCountry/en/institutional/perspectives/ai-resource-center). Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

In this episode, Dr. Scott Johnson and Dr. Nammy Patel discuss the critical connection between oral health and chronic illness. Dr. Patel, a biological dentist, shares her journey and insights on how dental health impacts overall wellness, the dangers of common dental materials, and the importance of the oral microbiome. They explore alternatives to traditional dental practices, the role of inflammation in chronic diseases, and practical steps listeners can take to improve their oral health and, consequently, their overall well-being.Connect with Dr. Scott A. Johnsonauthorscott.comFacebook Instagram YouTube Links to purchase books Connect with Dr. Nammy Patelhttps://www.drnammypatel.com/https://www.facebook.com/DrNammyPatelhttps://x.com/DrNammyPatelhttps://www.instagram.com/drnammypatel/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/nammypatel/  TakeawaysYour mouth is a mirror of your overall health.Restoring oral health can unlock whole body healing.The connection between oral health and systemic wellness is crucial.Mercury in dental materials is a neurotoxin.Not every tooth needs to be extracted; alternatives exist.Chronic illness often starts with the oral microbiome.The position of the tongue affects overall health and sleep quality.Bacteria in the mouth can lead to systemic inflammation.Hydroxy nano-apatite is a safer alternative for dental care.Mouth taping can help prevent cavities and improve oral health. Chapters0:00 Introduction to Oral Health and Chronic Illness02:59 Dr. Nami Patel's Journey to Biological Dentistry06:41 The Connection Between Oral Health and Overall Wellness08:10 Impact of Dental Materials on Health11:36 Alternatives to Root Canals14:07 Dental Infections and Autoimmune Conditions17:26 Early Warning Signs of Health Issues19:33 The Role of the Oral Microbiome23:52 Addressing Chronic Illness Through Dental Health26:43 Holistic Alternatives in Dentistry29:58 Creating a Toxin-Free Oral Environment31:44 Short Outro.m4v

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it's not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown. But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets – that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to "run it hot" means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But, without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself. And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity.The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits, like SNAP, halted. As a result, Consumer Discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over. The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.So what does all of this all mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what have been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run it hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

When you walk into IMTS—the International Manufacturing Technology Show—it's easy to be awestruck by the machines, the energy, and the sheer scale. But few people realize just how much planning, logistics, and collaboration go into bringing that experience to life. In this episode of MakingChips, we sit down with Mark Kennedy, Senior Director of Exhibitions at AMT, to get a behind-the-scenes look at how the world's largest manufacturing trade show comes together. This conversation dives deep into the IMTS Exhibitor Workshop, a two-day event that helps exhibitors prepare for success long before the show floor opens. Mark explains how exhibitors—from first-timers to seasoned veterans—can maximize ROI, streamline operations, and turn their IMTS booth into a "Super Bowl moment" for their brand. From freight logistics and pavilion planning to marketing strategy and exhibitor education, Mark shares stories that reveal the incredible coordination required to transform McCormick Place into a million-square-foot hub of innovation. The hosts also share their own trade show experiences—from lessons learned the hard way to creative booth strategies like ProShop's "Ambassador Program." Whether you're an exhibitor, attendee, or simply curious about the manufacturing event that defines the industry every two years, this episode offers a rare look at what it takes to make IMTS happen—and how to make it count. Segments (1:00) Introducing guest Mark Kennedy and the importance of the IMTS Exhibitor Workshop (3:14) Grow your top and bottom-line with CliftonLarsonAllen (CLA) (6:32) How IMTS continues to evolve — from pavilions to product sectors (8:20) Why IMTS is the "Super Bowl" for manufacturers (9:01) What separates the best exhibitors (habits of highly effective show teams) (9:52) Creative booth ideas that drive engagement (ProShop Ambassadors, Toolpath's cornhole concept) (13:46) Lessons for first-time exhibitors and the importance of detailed planning (14:51) Panel discussions and hearing directly from attendees (16:46) Check out SMW Autoblok's workholding catalog (18:00) The new executive track — teaching leaders how to measure ROI (19:07) Alternatives for those who can't attend: Regional "Spring Training" sessions (20:38) Why McCormick Place and in-person networking still matter (21:53) Understanding the E-Kit and saving money through early planning (23:35) Collaboration among competitors and shared learning on the show floor (24:32) Maximizing IMTS Plus and digital marketing before the show (25:33) Introducing the IMTS Exhibitor Workbook — your "playbook for ROI" (26:35) The importance of preparation (you can't wing IMTS like a football game) (30:30) The continuous improvement mindset and what's coming next for IMTS 2026 (31:29) Predicting the next big trend — AI as the "prom queen" of manufacturing (33:46) Why we created Hire MFG Leaders—and why you should use the service Resources mentioned on this episode Register for the IMTS Exhibitor Workshop Grow your top and bottom-line with CliftonLarsonAllen (CLA) Check out SMW Autoblok's workholding catalog Why we created Hire MFG Leaders—and why you should use the service Connect With MakingChips www.MakingChips.com On Facebook On LinkedIn On Instagram On Twitter On YouTube

Are constant disruptions messing up your perfectly planned weeks? You're not alone! When I taught at small schools in particular, it often felt like every week held a new disruption. Between spirit weeks, fire drills, and field trips, I sometimes wondered if I'd ever get a “normal” week with my students! In this episode, I'm sharing five practical tips for lesson planning that will keep learning moving even when weeks don't go as planned.➡️ Show Notes: https://itsnotrocketscienceclassroom.com/episode208Resources Mentioned:Desktop Paper CalendarDownload your FREE Classroom Reset Challenge.Take the Free Labs When Limited virtual PD courseSend me a DM on Instagram: @its.not.rocket.scienceSend me an email: rebecca@itsnotrocketscienceclassroom.com  Follow, rate, and review on Apple Podcasts.Follow, rate, and comment on Spotify.Related Episodes and Blog Posts:Episode 51, 5 Alternatives to Traditional Midterm ExamsEpisode 116, Behind Schedule? What to Do and How to Prevent It in the FutureEpisode 149 Teaching on a Block Schedule - Why It's Not as Bad as You ThinkEpisode 152, Absences - How to Deal With ThemEpisode 185, When Is Preparation Worth It, and When Is It a Pipe Dream?

In the history of technology era changes, things tend to change slowly at first, and then quickly all at once. We've now reached the beginning of the all-at-once era of AI change. SHOW: 974SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #974 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK: http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotwCHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST: "CLOUDCAST BASICS"SHOW SPONSORS:[TestKube] TestKube is Kubernetes-native testing platform, orchestrating all your test tools, environments, and pipelines into scalable workflows empowering Continuous Testing. Check it out at TestKube.io/cloudcast[Interconnected] Interconnected is a new series from Equinix diving into the infrastructure that keeps our digital world running. With expert guests and real-world insights, we explore the systems driving AI, automation, quantum, and more. Just search “Interconnected by Equinix”.SHOW NOTES:The Benefit of Bubbles (Stratechery)Cube Research - Energy needs of AIAre we building AI for Progress or Power? (Prof G Markets)Amazon earnings call (Oct 2025) transcriptMicrosoft Azure earnings call (Oct 2025) transcriptWHAT WAS THE LEADING AI TREND FOR EACH YEAR?2022 - What is ChatGPT2023 - What can GenAI do? (Jobs, Skills, etc.)2024 - Alternatives to OpenAI and NVIDIA, Where is Google?, Where is AWS?2025 - Open source in AI, AI Regulations, AI Partnerships, Deep Seek, AI Agents, AI Funding, AI Power Challenges, AI Gov't Involvement2026 - ???FEEDBACK?Email: show at the cloudcast dot netTwitter/X: @cloudcastpodBlueSky: @cloudcastpod.bsky.socialInstagram: @cloudcastpodTikTok: @cloudcastpod

Aaron Benanav discusses the second part of his ‘Beyond Capitalism' essay series in the New Left Review. In this part he lays out the institutional design of his proposal of a multi-criterial economy. Shownotes Aaron at Cornell University: https://cals.cornell.edu/people/aaron-benanav Aaron's personal website: https://www.aaronbenanav.com/ Access to Aaron's paywalled publications: https://www.aaronbenanav.com/papers Mailing List to join the Movement for Multi-Dimensional Economics: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeUF7MZ2jQJXY_wHKn5xSIo-_L0tkMO-SG079sa5lGhRJTgqg/viewform Benanav, A. (2025). Beyond Capitalism—1. New Left Review, Issue 153, 65–128. https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii153/articles/aaron-benanav-beyond-capitalism-1 Benanav, A. (2025). Beyond Capitalism—2. New Left Review, Issue 154, 97–143. https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii154/articles/aaron-benanav-beyond-capitalism-2 Benanv, A. (2020). Automation and the Future of Work. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/2682-automation-and-the-future-of-work on economic stagnation, see especially chapter 3, “In the Shadow of Stagnation”. on Marx's concept of the Value-Form: https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/appendix.htm Moore, J.W. & Patel, R. (2020). A History of the World in Seven Cheap Things. A Guide to Capitalism, Nature, and the Future of the Planet. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/817-a-history-of-the-world-in-seven-cheap-things on the abstract domination of capitalism: Postone, M. (1993). Time, Labor and Social Domination. A Reinterpretation of Marx's Critical Theory. Cambridge University Press. https://files.libcom.org/files/Moishe%20Postone%20-%20Time,%20Labor,%20and%20Social%20Domination.pdf Mau, S. (2023). Mute Compulsion. A Marxist Theory of the Economic Power of Capital. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/2759-mute-compulsion Leipold, B. (2024). Citizen Marx. Republicanism and the Formation of Karl Marx's Social and Political Thought. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691205236/citizen-marx on GDP (Gross Domestic Product): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product on the Five-Year Plans in the Soviet Union: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_the_Soviet_Union Katsenelinboigen, A. (1977). Coloured Markets in the Soviet Union. Soviet Studies. Vol. 29, No.1. 62-85. https://www.jstor.org/stable/150728 Uvalić, M. (2018). The Rise and Fall of Market Socialism in Yugoslavia. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331223694_The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Market_Socialism_in_Yugoslavia on Friedrich Hayek: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek Hayek, F. A. (1945). The Use of Knowledge in Society. The American Economic Review, 35(4), 519–530. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1809376 on the Pareto Optimum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficiency on Rational Choice Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_choice_model on Behavioral Economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics on Otto Neurath: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Neurath on Neurath's technocratic tendencies: https://jacobin.com/2023/02/technocratic-socialism-otto-neurath-utopianism-capitalism on Joseph Raz: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Raz on Utilitarianism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism on the Capability Approach by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability_approach on the Human Development Index (HDI): https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI on the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs): https://sdgs.un.org/goals on Multi-Objective Optimization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-objective_optimization Saros, D. E. (2014). Information Technology and Socialist Construction. The End of Capital and the Transition to Socialism. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Information-Technology-and-Socialist-Construction-The-End-of-Capital-and-the-Transition-to-Socialism/Saros/p/book/9780415742924 on Neoclassical Economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoclassical_economics on Citizen Assemblies and Sortition: https://www.sortitionfoundation.org/ on John Stuart Mill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill Mill, J. S. (2011). On Liberty. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/on-liberty/62EC27F1E66E2BCBA29DDCD5294B3DE0 McCabe, H. (2021). John Stuart Mill, Socialist. McGill-Queen's University Press. https://www.mqup.ca/john-stuart-mill--socialist-products-9780228005742.php on Degrowth: https://degrowth.info/ on Nick Land and Right Accelerationism: https://youtu.be/lrOVKHg_PJQ?si=Q4oFbaM1p4fhcWP0 on Left Accelerationism: https://criticallegalthinking.com/2013/05/14/accelerate-manifesto-for-an-accelerationist-politics/ Devine, P. (2002). Participatory Planning through Negotiated Coordination. Science & Society, Vol. 66, No. 1, 72-85. https://guilfordjournals.com/doi/abs/10.1521/siso.66.1.72.21001?journalCode=siso on Oskar R. Lange: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_R._Lange on Lange's neoclassical approach to Socialism: https://jacobin.com/2022/10/oskar-lange-neoclassical-marxism-limits-of-capitalism-economic-theory Kowalik, T. (1990). Lange-Lerner Mechanism. In: Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., Newman, P. (eds). Problems of the Planned Economy. Palgrave Macmillan. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-20863-0_21 on Joseph Schumpeters concept of Creative Destruction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction Shaikh, A. (2016). Capitalism. Competition, Conflict, Crises. Oxford Academic. https://academic.oup.com/book/1464 Kornai, J. (1980). “Hard” and “Soft” Budget Constraint. Acta Oeconomica, 25(3/4), 231–245. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40728773 on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas_production_function on Adam Smith: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith Lutosch, H. (2025). Embracing the Small Stuff. Caring for Children in a Liberated Society. In: Groos, J., & Sorg, C. (Eds.). (2025). Creative Construction. Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction Hahnel, R. (2021). Democratic Economic Planning. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Democratic-Economic-Planning/Hahnel/p/book/9781032003320 Cockshott, P. & Cottrell, A. (1993). Towards a New Socialism. Spokesman. https://users.wfu.edu/cottrell/socialism_book/new_socialism.pdf on Universal Basic Services (UBS): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_services https://autonomy.work/ubs-hub/ Fraser, N. & Sorg, C. (2025). Socialism, Planning and the Relativity of Dirt. In: Groos, J., & Sorg, C. (Eds.). (2025). Creative Construction. Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction on Milton Friedman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman on John Maynard Keynes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes Aaron on what to learn from radical Keynesianism for a transitionary Program: Benanav, A. & Henwood, D. (2025). Behind the News. Beyond the Capitalist Economy w/ Aaron Benanav. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2diIiFkkM4x7MoZhi9e0tx on Socializing Finance: McCarthy, M. A. (2025). The Master's Tools. How Finance Wrecked Democracy (And a Radical Plan to Rebuild It). Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/755-the-master-s-tools Future Histories Episodes on Related Topics S3E47 | Jason W. Moore on Socialism in the Web of Life https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e47-jason-w-moore-on-socialism-in-the-web-of-life/ S03E29 | Nancy Fraser on Alternatives to Capitalism https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e29-nancy-fraser-on-alternatives-to-capitalism/ S03E04 | Tim Platenkamp on Republican Socialism, General Planning and Parametric Control https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e04-tim-platenkamp-on-republican-socialism-general-planning-and-parametric-control/ S02E33 | Pat Devine on Negotiated Coordination https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s02/e33-pat-devine-on-negotiated-coordination/ S03E10 | Aaron Benanav on Associational Socialism and Democratic Planning https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s02/e10-aaron-benanav-on-associational-socialism-and-democratic-planning/ S01E32 | Daniel E. Saros on Digital Socialism and the Abolition of Capital (Part 2) https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s01/e32-daniel-e-saros-on-digital-socialism-and-the-abolition-of-capital-part-2/ S02E31 | Daniel E. Saros on Digital Socialism and the Abolition of Capital (Part 1) https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s01/e31-daniel-e-saros-on-digital-socialism-and-the-abolition-of-capital-part-1/ --- If you are interested in democratic economic planning, these resources might be of help: Democratic planning – an information website https://www.democratic-planning.com/ Sorg, C. & Groos, J. (eds.)(2025). Rethinking Economic Planning. Competition & Change Special Issue Volume 29 Issue 1. https://journals.sagepub.com/toc/ccha/29/1 Groos, J. & Sorg, C. (2025). Creative Construction - Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. [for a review copy, please contact: amber.lanfranchi[at]bristol.ac.uk] https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction International Network for Democratic Economic Planning https://www.indep.network/ Democratic Planning Research Platform: https://www.planningresearch.net/ --- Future Histories Contact & Support If you like Future Histories, please consider supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/FutureHistories Contact: office@futurehistories.today Twitter: https://twitter.com/FutureHpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/futurehpodcast/ Mastodon: https://mstdn.social/@FutureHistories English webpage: https://futurehistories-international.com   Episode Keywords #AaronBenanav, #JanGroos, #Interview, #FutureHistories, #FutureHistoriesInternational, #futurehistoriesinternational, #Transition, #DemocraticPlanning, #Keynes, #Efficiency, #Economics, #NeoclassicalEconomics, #NeoclassicalSocialism, #OttoNeurath, #DemocraticEconomicPlanning, #Capitalism, #Economics, #Socialism, #Socialisation, #Investment, #Degrowth, #UniversalBasicServices, #CareWork

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss potential next steps for the FOMC and the risks to their views from the U.S. government shutdown. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: The October FOMC meeting delivered a quarter percent rate cut as widely expected – but things are more complicated, and policy is not on a preset path from here.It's Friday, November 7th at 10am in New York.So, Mike, the Fed did cut by 25 basis points in October, but it was not a unanimous decision. And the Federal Open Market Committee decided to end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1st – earlier than we expected. How did things unfold and does this change your outlook in any way?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me. Not so much the statement or the decision, but there were dissents. There was a dissent in favor of a 50-basis point cut. There was a dissent in favor of no cut. And that foreshadowed the press conference – where really the conversation was about, I think, a divided committee; and a committee that didn't have a lot of consensus on what would come next.The balance sheet discussion, which we can get into, it came a little sooner than we thought, but it was largely in line with our view. And I'm not sure it's a macro critical decision right now. But I do think it was a surprise to markets and it was certainly a surprise to me – how much Powell's tone shifted between September and October, in terms of what the market could expect from the Fed going forward.So, what he said in essence, the key points, you know. The policy's not on a preset path from here. Or [a] cut in December is maybe not decidedly part of the baseline; or certainly is not a foregone conclusion. And I think what that reflects is a couple of things.One is that they're recalibrating policy based on a risk management view. So, you can cut almost independent of the data, at least in the beginning. And so now I think Powell's saying, ‘Well, at least from here, future cuts are probably more data dependent than those initial cuts.' But second, and I think most importantly is the division that appeared within the Fed. I think there's one group that's hawkish, one group that's dovish, and I think it reflects the division and the tension that we have in the economic data.So, I think the hawkish crowd is looking at strong activity data, strong AI spending, an upper income consumer that seems to be doing just fine. And they're saying, ‘Why are we cutting? Financial conditions for the business community is pretty easy. Maybe the neutral rate of interest is higher. We're probably less restrictive than you think.' And then I think the other side of the committee, which I believe still that Chair Powell is in, is looking at a market slowdown in hiring a weak labor market. What that means for growth in real income for those households that depend on labor market income to consume; there's probably some front running of autos that artificially boosted growth in the third quarter.So, I think that the dissents, or I should say the division within the FOMC, I think reflects the tension in the underlying data. So, to know which way monetary policy evolves, Matt, it's essentially trying to decide: does the labor market rebound towards the activity data or does the activity data decelerate at least temporarily to the labor market?Matthew Hornbach: Mike, you talked a lot about data just now, and we're not exactly getting a lot of government data at the moment. How are you thinking about the path for the data in terms of its availability between now and the December FOMC meeting? And how do you think that may affect the Fed's willingness to move forward with another rate cut in the cycle?Michael Gapen: Right. So that's key and critical to understanding, right? We're operating under the assumption, of course the federal government shutdowns going to end at some point. We're going to get all this back data released and we can assess where the economy is or has been. I think the way markets should think about this is if the government shutdown has ended in the next few weeks, say before Thanksgiving – then I think we, markets, the Fed will have the bulk of the data in front of them and available to assess the economy at the December FOMC meeting.They may not have it all, but they should get at least some of that data released. We can assess it. If the economy has moderated and weakened a bit, the labor market has continued to cool, the Fed can cut. If it shows maybe the labor market rebounding downside risk to employment being diminished, maybe the Fed doesn't cut.So that's a world and it is our expectation the shutdown should end in the next few weeks. We're already at the longest shutdown on record, so we will get some data in hand to make the decision for December. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, Matt, and maybe we go beyond Thanksgiving, and the shutdown extends into December.My suspicion though, is if the government is still shut down in December, I can't imagine the economy's getting better. So, I think the Fed could lean in the direction of taking one more step.Matthew Hornbach: This is going to be very critical for how the markets think about the outlook in 2026 and price the outlook for 2026. The last FOMC meeting of the year has that type of importance for markets – pricing, the path of Fed policy, and the path of the economy into 2026. Because if we end up receiving a rate cut from the Fed, the dialogue in the investment community will be focused on when might the next cut arrive. Versus if we don't get that rate cut in December, the dialogue will focus on, maybe we will never see another rate cut in the cycle. And what if we see a rate hike as we make our way through the second half of 2026? So that can have a dramatic impact on the U.S. Treasury market and how investors think about the outlook for policy and the economy.Michael Gapen: So, I think that's right. And as you know, our baseline outlook is at least through the first quarter, if not into the second quarter. The private sector will still be attempting to pass through tariffs into prices. And I think in the meantime, demand for labor and the hiring rate will remain low.And so, we look for additional labor market slack to build. Not a lot, but the unemployment rate moving to more like 4.6, maybe 4.7 – and that underpins our expectation the Fed will be reducing rates in in 2026. But I think as you note, and as I mentioned earlier, there is this tension in the data and it's not inconceivable that the labor market accelerates. And you get, kind of, an animal spirits driven 2026; where a combination of momentum in the data, AI-related business spending, wealth effects for upper income consumers and maybe a larger fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, lead the economy to outperform.And to your point, if that is happening, it's not farfetched to think, well, if the Fed put in risk management insurance cuts, perhaps they need to take those out. And that could build in a way where that expectation, let's say towards the second half or the fourth quarter maybe of 2026, maybe it takes into 2027. But I agree with you that if the Fed can't cut in December because the economy's doing well and the data show that, and we learn more of that in 2026, you're right.So, it would… And may maybe to put it more simply, the more the Fed cuts, the more you need to open both sides of the rate path distribution, right? The deeper they cut, the greater the probability over time, they're going to have to raise those rates. And so, if the Fed is forced to stop in December, yeah, you can make that argument.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, a lot of the factors that you mentioned are factors that are coming up in investor conversations increasingly. The way I've been framing it in my discussions is that investors want to see the glass as half full today, versus in the middle of this year the glass was looking half empty. And of course, as we head into the holiday season, the glass will be filled with something perhaps a bit tastier than water. And so…Michael Gapen: Fill my glass please.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. So, I do think that we could be setting up for a bright 2026 ahead. And so, with that, Mike, look forward to seeing you again in December – with a glass of eggnog perhaps. And a decision in hand for the meeting that the Fed holds then. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, we explore a head-to-head comparison of trazodone, doxepin, and melatonin for treating insomnia when benzodiazepines are off the table. Which non-benzodiazepine sleep aid offers the best balance of effectiveness and tolerability in real-world psychiatric patients? Faculty: Paul Zarkowski, M.D. Host: Richard Seeber, M.D. Learn more about our membership here Earn 0.75 CMEs: Quick Take Vol. 74 Melatonin, Trazodone, or Doxepin for Sleep Disorders

You may have seen the recent three-part Netflix documentary Fit for TV: The Reality of The Biggest Loser. The series revisits the hit show The Biggest Loser, which framed weight loss as a competitive transformation journey—often emphasizing dramatic physical change over sustainable health. The documentary dives into the tension between creating captivating television and protecting the wellbeing of participants.In today's episode, we share our reflections on the series, our critiques of weight loss competitions, and why we believe shows like this perpetuate fat stigma. We'll also talk about constructive, compassionate alternatives for achieving lifelong health habits (hint: it's about much more than pounds lost). If you're a regular listener, you won't be surprised when we circle back to the importance of supportive, sustainable health journeys.We've heard many people say, “I need someone to be the food police or screaming in my face for me to lose weight.” If you've ever felt that way, we invite you to listen in—we're challenging that belief and offering a more empowering path forward.Did you watch The Biggest Loser or the Netflix documentary Fit for TV? We'd love to hear what you think. Was it fair? Was it ethical? Should there be safeguards for participants in shows like this? Share your thoughts with us at georgiefear@gmail.com or through the chat box at confidenteaters.com.

- Introduction and AI Integration (0:00) - Introduction of X Peng's Humanoid Robot (2:23) - Technical and Psychological Aspects of Humanoid Robots (24:29) - Potential Uses and Challenges of Humanoid Robots (24:57) - Impact of AI on Employment and Economy (30:58) - Economic Consequences and Political Implications (36:21) - Song Release and Musical Style (38:05) - Analysis of Election Results and Economic Conditions (47:19) - Future of Work and AI Integration (1:05:40) - Digital ID and Surveillance Concerns (1:05:59) - Decentralized Living and Privacy Measures (1:27:37) - Advantages of Local AI Engines (1:28:30) - Steps to Protect Privacy and Assets (1:29:55) - Alternatives to Windows and Google (1:31:46) - Free Pro-Freedom Tools and Resources (1:33:06) For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com

Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a case challenging the current administration's tariff policy. Our Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Research explains the potential magnitude of the case's outcome for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we discuss the challenge against tariffs at the Supreme Court and how it might affect markets.It's Thursday, Nov 6th at 11am in New York.This week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments about the legality of most of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Investors are paying close attention because if the Supreme rules against the administration, it could undo much of the four-five times tariff increase that's taken place in the U.S. this year. That would seem to set up this hearing, and a subsequent ruling which could come as early as this month, as a clear market catalyst. But, like many policy issues affecting the economic and markets outlook, the reality is more complicated. Here's what you need to know.First, there's ample debate among experts about how the court will rule. That may seem surprising given the court's makeup. Three of the nine judges were appointed by President Trump, and six of the nine by Republican Presidents. But it's not clear they'll agree that the President used his executive power in a way consistent with the law that granted the executive branch this particular power. That law is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. And, without getting into too much detail, the law appears to have been designed to deal with economic crises and foreign adversaries, which the court might argue is not evident when considering tariffs levied against traditional allies.But, the next important point is that a ruling against the Trump administration might not actually change much around U.S. tariff levels. How is that possible? It's because the administration has other executive tariff powers it can deploy if needed, and ones that are arguably more durable. For example, Section 301 gives a President wide latitude to designate a trading partner as undertaking unfair trade practices. So this authority could be swapped in for IEEPA. That could take time, as Section 301 requires a study to be submitted, but there are other temporary authorities that could bridge the gap. So the U.S. can likely ensure continuity of current tariff levels if it wants – keeping tariffs more of a constant than a variable in our outlook.Of course, we have to consider ways we could be wrong. For example, the administration could use a ruling against it to re-focus instead on product specific tariffs through Section 232. That likely would result in U.S. effective tariff rates drifting a bit lower, alleviating some of the pressure our economists see on the consumer and corporate importers, adding more support to risk assets. But that scenario might come with some volatility along the way if the administration feels the need to float larger product specific tariff levels before settling on more palatable levels – similar to what happened in April.So bottom line, there's more tariff policy noise to navigate this year. It could bring some market volatility, and maybe even a bit of upside, but the most likely outcome is that we circle back to the approximate levels we are today. Setting up for 2026, that means other debates – like how companies respond to tariffs and capital spending incentives – are probably more important to the outlook than the level of tariffs themselves. We're digging in on all that and will keep you in the loop.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Delanie Fischer chats with Arielle Loupos, founder of Flower Girl, for a revealing look at the hidden toxins in mainstream menstrual products and their impact, the history of “feminine hygiene” marketing, and the safe alternatives everyone should know about. They explore cycle stigma, period traditions, and why rethinking our everyday products is essential for our health. Please share this with the females in your life. ✨ This episode is part of the Self-Helpless “Subscriber Stories” series! Got a story, resource, or experience that could help others? Email selfhelplesspodcast@gmail.com to be considered as a guest. Discussed in this episode:  2024 Menstrual Products Study Results How The Industrial Revolution Changed Periods Ancient Traditions for Celebrating Cycles Is The Free Bleed Movement The Future? Toxic Shock Syndrome Causes and Risks Tampons, Pads, Cups, Period Underwear Cramps and Infertility Questions Postpartum, Perimenopause, and Leaks Cycle Syncing Tips in the Workplace Ending Period Stigma (and Starting Young) ---- If Self-Helpless has supported you, a quick 5-star rating or review (if you haven't already) means so much! ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/self-helpless/id1251196416⁠ Free goodies including The Quote Buffet and The Watch & Read List: ⁠https://www.selfhelplesspodcast.com/⁠ Ad-free episodes now available on ⁠Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/selfhelpless⁠ Your Host, Delanie Fischer:⁠ https://www.delaniefischer.com⁠ ---- Episodes related to this topic: 20 Documentaries To Watch This Year: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/2542cab6/self-helpless-snack-whats-your-favorite-documentary-20-documentaries-to-watch-this-year Hormone Imbalances and Your Menstrual Cycle with Dr. Jolene Brighten: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/c4a75fbe/hormone-imbalances-and-your-menstrual-cycle-with-dr-jolene-brighten UTIs, Interstitial Cystitis, and Pelvic Floor Dysfunction with Dr. Rena Malik: https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/1c573a89/utis-interstitial-cystitis-and-pelvic-floor-dysfunction-with-dr-rena-malik Flip the Script on Aging: Strength, Vitality, and Purpose with 74 Year-Old Icon Babette Davis: ⁠https://www.delaniefischer.com/selfhelplesspodcast/episode/23c49ad2/flip-the-script-on-aging-strength-vitality-and-purpose-with-74-year-old-icon-babette-davis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Concluding a two-part roundtable discussion, our global heads of Research, Thematic Research and Firmwide AI focus on the human impacts of AI adoption in the workplace.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts in The Market, and to part two of our conversation on AI adoption. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research. Once again, I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI. Today, let's focus on the human level. What this paradigm shift means for individual workers. It's Wednesday, November 5th at 10am in New York. Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, there's a lot of simultaneous fear and excitement around widespread AI adoption. There's obviously concern that AI could lead to massive job losses. But you seem optimistic about this paradigm shift. Why is that? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, as I mentioned in part one, this is the most popular discussion topic with my children. And I would say younger folks are quite concerned about this. There's a lot of angst among young folks thinking about what is that job market really going to look like for them. And admittedly, AI could be quite disruptive. So, we don't want to sugarcoat that. There's clearly going to be impacts across many jobs. Our work showed that around 90 percent of jobs will be impacted in some way. Oh, in the long term, I would guess nearly every job will be impacted in some way. The reason we are more optimistic is that what we see is a range of what we would think of as augmentation, where AI can essentially help you do something much better. It can help you expand your capabilities. And it will result in entirely new jobs. Now with any new technology, it's always hard to predict exactly what those new jobs are. But examples that I see in my world of energy would be smart grid analysis, predictive maintenance, managing systems in a much more efficient way. Systems that are so complicated that they're really beyond the capability of humans to manage very effectively. So, I'm quite excited there. I'm extremely excited in the life sciences where we could see entire new approaches to curing some of the worst diseases plaguing humankind. So, I am really very excited in terms of those new areas of job creation. In terms of job losses, one interesting analysis that a lot of investors are really focused on that we included in our Future of Work report was the ratio – within a job – of augmentation to automation. The lower the ratio, the higher the risk of job loss in the sense that that shows a sign that more of what AI is going to do, is going to replace that type of human work. Examples of that would be in professional services. As I mentioned, you know, one of my former professions, law would be an example of an area where you could see this. But essentially, tasks that don't require a lot of proprietary data, require less creativity. Those are the types of tasks that are more likely to be automated. Kathryn Huberty: One theme I hear both in Silicon Valley and in our industry is the value of domain expertise goes up. So, the lawyer that's very good in the courtroom or handling a really complicated situation because they have decades of experience, the value of that labor and talent goes up. And so, when my friends ask me what their kids should pursue in school and as a career, I tell them it's less about what job they pursue. Pick a passion and become a domain expert really quickly. Stephen Byrd: I think that's excellent advice. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, how do you see AI changing the skills we'll need at Morgan Stanley and the way that people should think about their careers? Jeff McMillan: I think you have to break this down into three pieces – and Stephen sort of alluded to it. One, you have to look at the jobs that are likely to disappear. Two, you have to look at the jobs that are going to change. And then finally, you have to look at the new jobs that are going to actually emerge from this phenomena. You should be thinking right now about how you are going to prepare yourself with the right skills around learning how to prompt and learning how to move into those functions that are not going to be eliminated. In terms of jobs that are changing, they're going to require a far, far greater sense of collaboration, creativity. And again, prompting; prompt engineering is sort of the center of that. And I would highly encourage every single person who's listening to this to become the single best prompt engineer in their group, in their friend[s group], in their organization. And then in terms of the jobs that are being created, I'm actually pretty optimistic here. As we build agents, there's actually a bull case that we're going to create so much complexity in our environment that we're going to need more people to help manage that. But the skills are not going to be repetitive linear skills. They're going to require real time decision-making, leadership skills, collaboration skills. But again, I would go back to every single person: learn how to talk to the machine, learn how to be creative, and practice every day your engagement with this technology. Kathryn Huberty: So then how are companies balancing the re-skilling with the inevitable culture shifts that come with any new paradigm? Jeff McMillan: So, first of all, I think if you think about this as a tool, you've already lost the plot. I think that number one, you have to remind yourself what your strategy is; whatever that strategy is, this is an enabler of your strategy. The second point I'd make is that you have to go from both – the top down, in terms of leadership messaging that this change is here, it's important and it needs to be embraced. And then it's a bottoms-up because you have to empower people with the right tools and the technology to transform their own work. Because if you're trying to tell people that this is the path that they have to follow. You don't get the buy-in that you need. You really want to empower people to leverage these tools. And what excites me most is when people walk into my office and say, ‘Hey Jeff, let me show you what I built today.' And it could be some 22-year-old who; it's their first month on the job. And what's exciting about this technology is you do not need a technology background. You need to be smart; you need to be creative. And if you've got those skills, you can build things that are really innovative. And I think that's what's exciting. So, if you can combine the top down that this is important and the bottoms up with giving people the skills and the technology and the motivation – that's the secret sauce. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, what's your advice for the next generation college students, recent college graduates as they're thinking about navigating the early parts of their career in this environment? Jeff McMillan: Well, Katy, I first of all, I'd agree with what you say. You know, everyone's like, ‘What should I study?' And the answer is – I don't actually know the answer to that question. But I would study what you care about. I would do something that you're passionate about. And the second point, and I hate to be a broken record on this. But I would be the single best user of GenerativeAI at your college. Volunteer with some nonprofit, build a use case with your friends. When you walk into your first job, impress in your interview that you are able to use this technology in really effective ways – because that will make a difference, in your first job. Kathryn Huberty: And I'm curious, are there areas where you think humans will always beat AI, whether it's in financial services or other industries? Jeff McMillan: I like to think that we are human and that gives us the ability to build trust and emotional relationships. And I think not only are we going to be better at that than machines are. But I think that's something that we as humans will always want. I think that there may be some individuals in the society that may feel differently. But I think as a general rule, the human-to-human relationship is something that's really important. And I like to think that it will be a differentiator for a long time to come. So, Katy, from where you sit as the Head of Global Research, how has GenAI changed the way research is being done? Kathryn Huberty: With the help of your team, Jeff, we have now embedded AI through the life cycle of investigating a hypothesis, doing the analysis, writing the research in a concise, effective way. Pushing that through our publishing process, developing digital content in our analysts' voice, in the local language of the client. And now we're working on a client engagement tool that helps direct our research team's time. And so, the impact here is it reduces the time to market to get a alpha generating idea to our clients and, you know, and it's freeing up time for our teams. Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to build on that. Productivity is a big theme. And away from the research itself, from a management perspective, how are you and your team using AI? And what do you see as the benefits? And how are you spending the extra time that's freed up by AI? Kathryn Huberty: I like to say that the research AI strategy is less about the tools. I mean, those are critical and foundational. But it's more about how we're evolving workflow and how our teams are spending time. And so, the savings are being reinvested in actually your area – thematic research – which takes a lot more coordination, collaboration. A global cross-asset view, which just takes more time to develop, and test a hypothesis, and debate internally, and get those reports to market. But it's critical for our core strategy, which is to help our clients generate alpha. When you look at equity markets over the past 30 years, a very small number of stocks drive all of the alpha. And they tend to link to themes. And so, we're reinvesting time in identifying those themes earlier than the market to allow our clients to capture that alpha. And then the other piece is when we look at our analyst teams, they spend about a quarter of their time with clients because they have to meet with experts in the industry. They need to do the analysis, they have to build the financial forecast, manage their teams. You know, we have internal activities, build culture. And with the ability to leverage these tools to speed up some of those tasks, we think we can double the amount of time that our analysts are spending with clients. And if we're putting thought-provoking, you know, often thematic global collaborative content into the market, our clients want to spend more time with us. And so, that's the ultimate impact. On a personal level, and I think both of you can relate. I think a lot of the freed-up time right now is just following the fast pace of change in AI and keeping up with the latest technology, the latest vendors. But long term, my hope is that this frees up time for more human activities on a personal level. Learning the arts, staying active. So, this could be potentially very beneficial to society if we reinvest that time in both productive activities that have impact in business. But also productive, rewarding activities outside of the office.As we wrap up, it's clear that the influence of AI is expanding rapidly, not just in digital- and knowledge-based sectors, but increasingly in tangible real-world applications. As these innovations unfold, the way we interact with both technology and our environments will continue to evolve – both on the job and elsewhere in our lives. Jeff, Stephen, thank you both for sharing your insights. And to our listeners, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend and colleague today.

The first flight of the Lockheed Martin X-59 supersonic Aircraft, Boom Supersonic, the end of SeatGuru, JetBlue emergency landing, new Navy jet trainer, and an Airbus A400M is delivered to Indonesia. Also, a talk with Cranky Flier and the certification of Chinese commercial jets. Aviation News NASA takes one step closer to launching quiet supersonic jets Lockheed Martin Skunk Works®, in partnership with NASA, completed the first flight of the X-59 quiet supersonic aircraft. The X-59 is designed to demonstrate the ability to fly at supersonic speeds while reducing the sonic boom to a “gentle thump.”  Lockheed Martin X59 first flight. The X-59 took off from Skunk Works' facility at U.S. Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, before landing near NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California. Lockheed Martin says “the X-59 performed exactly as planned.” Working with NASA, Skunk Works will continue to lead the aircraft's initial flight test campaign to expand the X-59's flight envelope over the coming months. Part of this test will include the X-59's first supersonic flights and enable NASA to operate the X-59 to measure its sound signature and conduct community acceptance testing. Lockheed Martin press release: X-59 Soars: A New Era in Supersonic Flight Begins. Douglas X-3 Stiletto. Related: Boom Supersonic – Overture Airliner Program Outlook. The Overture remains targeted for a first flight in 2027, followed by a goal of certification by 2029. Boom is assembling and testing components for its in-house Symphony turbofan engine, with manufacturing and validation underway at its Colorado R&D facility. Full-scale engine tests are anticipated in 2026. At least 15 people sent to hospital after JetBlue flight drops altitude, forcing emergency landing in Florida, officials say In a statement, JetBlue said Flight 1230 from Cancun, Mexico, to Newark, New Jersey, “experienced a drop in altitude.” The plane diverted to Tampa International Airport, and at least 15 people were sent to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries and discharged. The Airbus A320 dropped about 100 feet in about seven seconds. The FAA is investigating a “flight control issue.” End Of An Era: SeatGuru Officially Shuts Down, Redirects To TripAdvisor SeatGuru was launched in 2001 and was widely used by air travelers to examine airline seat maps of most aircraft types. TripAdvisor acquired SeatGuru in 2007, but by early 2020, updates to the seat maps ceased. Seatguru.com now displays the message “SeatGuru has closed down, please visit Tripadvisor to plan your next trip.” TripAdvisor doesn't offer the service that SeatGuru once did. Alternatives include AeroLOPA, SeatMaps, Expert Flyer, and AwardFares. United Airlines CEO Aligns With Trump, Eyes JetBlue Merger? United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby appeared at the White House alongside Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, voicing strong support for reopening the U.S. government without conditions. Kirby emphasized the strain on air traffic control and the airline industry amid the prolonged government shutdown. He called for a “clean continuing resolution.” Some observers speculate that Kirby has a strategy to integrate JetBlue's operations in the Northeast with United's existing Newark operations and a potential Boston expansion. T-45 to Depart the Pattern The T-45 Goshawk Navy jet trainer was originally manufactured by McDonnell Douglas, which merged with Boeing in 1997. The Navy wants a replacement for the Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS) program. Vying for the contract are the SNC Freedom Trainer and the Beechcraft M-346N. The Navy expects to formally announce a request for proposals in December 2025 and award a contract in January 2027. Airbus delivers first A400M to Indonesia The Indonesian Air Force will operate the Airbus Defence and Space A400M heavy tactical airlift aircraft.

In the first of a two-part roundtable discussion, our Global Head of Research joins our Global Head of Thematic Research and Head of Firmwide AI to discuss how the economic and labor impacts of AI adoption.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research, and I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.Today and tomorrow, we have a special two-part episode on the number one question everyone is asking us: What does the future of work look like as we scale AI?It's Tuesday, November 4th at 10am in New York.I wanted to talk to you both because Stephen, your groundbreaking work provides a foundation for thinking through labor and economic impacts of implementing AI across industries. And Jeff, you're leading Morgan Stanley's efforts to implement AI across our more than 80,000 employee firm, requiring critical change management to unlock the full value of this technology.Let's start big picture and look at this from the industry level. And then tomorrow we'll dig into how AI is changing the nature of work for individuals.Stephen, one of the big questions in the news – and from investors – is the size of AI adoption opportunity in terms of earnings potential for S&P 500 companies and the economy as a whole. What's the headline takeaway from your analysis?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is the most popular topic with my children when we talk about the work that I do. And the impacts are so broad. So, let's start with the headline numbers. We did a deep dive into the S&P 500 in terms of AI adoption benefits. The net benefits based on where the technology is now, would be about little over $900 billion. And that can translate to well over 20 percent increased earnings power that could generate over $13 trillion of market cap upon adoption. And importantly, that's where the technology is now.So, what's so interesting to me is the technology is evolving very, very quickly. We've been writing a lot about the nonlinear rate of improvement of AI. And what's especially exciting right now is a number of the big American labs, the well-known companies developing these LLMs, are now gathering about 10 times the computational power to train their next model. If scaling laws hold that would result in models that are about twice as capable as they are today. So, I think 2026 is going to be a big year in terms of thinking about where we're headed in terms of adoption. So, it's frankly challenging to basically take a snapshot because the picture is moving so quickly.Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, you referenced just the fast pace of change and the daily news flow. What's the view of the timeline here? Are we measuring progress at the industry level in months, in years?Stephen Byrd: It's definitely in years. It's fast and slow. Slow in the sense that, you know, it's taken some companies a little while now and some over a year to really prepare. But now what we're seeing in our CIO survey is many companies are now moving into the first, I'd say, full fledged adoption of AI, when you can start to really see this in numbers.So, it sort of starts with a trickle, but then in 2026, it really turns into something much, much bigger. And then I go back to this point about non-linear improvement. So, what looks like, areas where AI cannot perform a task six months from now will look very different. And I think – I'm a former lawyer myself. In the field of law, for example, this has changed so quickly as to what AI can actually do. So, what I expect is it starts slow and then suddenly we look at a wide variety of tasks and AI is fairly suddenly able to do a lot more than we expect.Kathryn Huberty: Which industries are likely to be most impacted by the shift? And when you broke down the analysis to the industry and job level, what were some of the surprises?Stephen Byrd: I thought what we would see would be fairly high-tech oriented sectors – and including our own – would be top of the list. What I found was very different. So, think instead of sectors where there's fairly low profit per employee, often low margin businesses, very labor-intensive businesses. A number of areas in healthcare staples came to the top. A few real estate management businesses. So, very different than I expected.The very high-tech sectors actually had some of the lowest numbers, simply because those companies in high-tech tend to have extremely high profit per employee. So, the impact is a lot less. So that was surprising learning. A lot of clients have been digging into that.Kathryn Huberty: I could see why that would've surprised you. But let's focus on banking for a moment since we have the expert here. Jeff, what are some of the most exciting AI use cases in banking right now?Jeff McMillan: You know, I would start with software development, which was probably the first Gen AI use case out of the gate. And not only was it first, but it continues to be the most rapidly advancing. And that's probably; mostly a function of the software, you know, development community. I mean, these are developers that are constantly fiddling and making the technology better.But productivity continues to advance at a linear pace. You know, we have over 20,000 folks here at Morgan Stanley. That's 25 percent of our population. And, you know, the impact both in terms of the size of that population and the efficiencies are really, really significant.So, I would start there. And then, you know, once you start moving past that, it may not seem, you know, sexy. It's really powerful around things like document processing. Financial services firms move massive amounts of paper. We take paper in, whether it be an account opening, whether it be a contract. Somebody reads that information, they reason about it, and then they type that information into a system. AI is really purpose built for that.And then finally, just document generation. I mean, the number of presentations, portfolio reviews, you know, even in your world, Katy, research reports that we create. Once again, AI is really just – it's right down the middle in terms of its ability to generate just content and help people reduce the time and effort to do that.Kathryn Huberty: There's a lot of excitement around AI, but as Stephen mentioned, it's not a linear path. What are the biggest challenges, Jeff, to AI adoption for a big global enterprise like Morgan Stanley? What keeps you up at night?Jeff McMillan: I've often made the analogy that we own a Ferrari and we're driving around circles in a parking lot. And what I mean by that is that the technology has so far advanced beyond our own capacity to leverage it. And the biggest issue is – it's our own capacity and awareness and education.So, what keeps me up at night? it's the firm's understanding. It's each person's and each leader's ability to understand what this technology can do. Candidly, it's the basics of prompting. We spend a lot of time here at the firm just teaching people how to prompt, understanding how to speak to the machine because until you know how to do that, you don't really understand the art of the possible. I tell people, if you have $100 to spend, you should start spending [$]90, on educating your employee base. Because until you do that, you cannot effectively get the best out of the technology.Kathryn Huberty: And as we look out to 2026, what AI trends are you watching closely and how are we preparing the firm to take advantage of that?Jeff McMillan: You and I were just out in Silicon Valley a couple of weeks ago, and seemingly overnight, every firm has become an agentic one. While much of that is aspirational, I think it's actually going to be, in the long term, a true narrative, right? And I think that step where we are right now is really about experimentation, right? I think we have to learn which tools work, what new governance processes we need to put in place, where the lines are drawn. I think we're still in the early stage, but we're leaning in really hard.We've got about 20 use cases that we're experimenting with right now. As things settle down and the vendor landscape really starts to pan out, we'll be down position to fully take advantage of that.Kathryn Huberty: A key element of the agentic solutions is linking to the data, the tools, the application that we use every day in our workflow. And that ecosystem is developing, and it feels that we're now on the cusp of those agentic workflow applications taking hold.Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to jump in here and ask you a question too. With your own background as an IT hardware analyst, how does the AI era compare to past tech or computing cycles? And what sort of lessons from those cycles shape your view of the opportunities and challenges ahead?Kathryn Huberty: The other big question in the market right now is whether an AI bubble is forming. You hear that in the press. It's one of the questions all three of us are hearing regularly from clients. And implicit in that question is a view that this doesn't look like past cycles, past trends. And I just don't believe that to be the case.We actually see the development of AI following a very similar path. If you go back to mainframe and then minicomputer, the PC, internet, mobile, cloud, and now AI. Each compute cycle is roughly 10 times larger in terms of the amount of installed compute.The reality is we've gone from millions to billions to trillions, and so it feels very different. But the reality is we have a trillion dollars of installed CPU compute, and that means we likely need $10 trillion of installed GPU compute. And so, we are following the same pattern. Yes, the numbers are bigger because we keep 10x-ing, but the pattern is the same. And so again, that tells us we're in the early innings. You know, we're still at the point of the semiconductor technology shipping out into infrastructure. The applications will come.The other pattern from past cycles is that exponential growth is really difficult for humans to model. So, I think back to the early days when Morgan Stanley's technology team was really bullish, laying the groundwork for the PC era, the internet era, the mobile era. When we go back and look at our forecasts, we always underestimated the potential. And so that would suggest that what we've seen with the upward earnings revisions for the AI enablers and soon the AI adopters is likely to continue.And so, I see many patterns, you know, that are thread across computing cycles, and I would just encourage investors to realize that AI so far is following similar patterns.Jeff McMillan: Katy, you make the point that much of the playbook is the same. But is there anything fundamentally different about the AI cycle that investors should be thinking about?Kathryn Huberty: The breadth of impact to industries and corporates, which speaks to Stephen's work. We have now four times over mapped the 3,700 companies globally that Morgan Stanley research covers to understand their role in this theme.Are they enabling AI? Are they adopting? Are they disrupted by it? How important is it to the thesis? Do they have pricing power? It's very valuable data to go and capture the alpha. But I was looking at that dataset recently and a third of those nearly 4,000 companies we cover, our analysts are saying that AI has an impact on the investment thesis. A third. And yet we're still in the early innings. And so, what may be different, and make the impact much bigger and broader is just the sheer number of corporations that will be impacted by the theme.Let's pause here and pick up tomorrow with more on workforce transformation and the impact on individual workers.Thank you to our listeners. Please join us tomorrow for part two of our conversation. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Every year, it seems like food gets more and more....less like food. But there are some foods that slip through the cracks that still seem like they're healthy but aren't. In this episode, I'm giving you 7 foods that are wrecking your gut health right now, and you might not know it.   TOPICS DISCUSSED: 7 foods killing your gut Alternatives to these foods How to pick the best foods for your body and your health   Leave us a Review: https://www.reversablepod.com/review   Need help with your gut? Visit my website gutsolution.ca to join a program: Get help now   Contact us: reversablepod.com/tips    FIND ME ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Instagram  Facebook  YouTube

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps just as important for markets was the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in December.Recently, Jay Powell has acknowledged the potential for rising stress in the funding markets and indicated the Fed could end QT sooner rather than later. Over the past month, expectations for the timing of this QT termination ranged from immediately to as late as February. Powell seemed to split the difference at last week's meeting and this could be viewed as disappointing to some market participants.In order to monitor this development, I will be watching how short-term funding markets behave. Specifically, overnight repo usage has been on the rise and if that continues along with the widening spreads between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and fed funds, I believe equity markets are likely to trade poorly, especially in some of the more speculative areas. In short, we think higher quality areas of the market are likely to continue to outperform until this dynamic is settled.Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing and the real standout has been the upside in revenue surprises, which is currently more than double the historical run-rate. We think this could provide further support that our rolling recovery thesis is under way which leads to much better earnings growth than most are expecting.Bottom line, we are gaining more confidence in our core view that a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and the beginning of a new cycle. This means higher and broader earnings growth in 2026 and a potentially different leadership in the equity market. The full broadening out to lower quality, smaller capitalization stocks is being held back by a Fed that continues to fight inflation; perhaps not realizing how much the private economy and average consumer needs lower rates for this rolling recovery to fully blossom. Last week's Fed meeting could be disappointing in that regard in the short run for equity markets. As a result, stay up the quality curve until we get more clarity on the timing of a more dovish path by the Fed and look for stress in funding markets as a possible buying opportunity into year end.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country's new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Today – Japan's stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors. It's Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo. Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally. You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It's significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar. And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether. Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan's cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there's still room to grow compared to other countries. The government's push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy. Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They're managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet. Japan's regulatory approach is strict: stablecoins must be 100 percent backed by high-quality, liquid assets, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited. Issuers must meet transparency and reserve requirements, and monthly audits are standard. This is similar to new rules in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. What does this mean in practice? Financial institutions are exploring stablecoins for instant payments, asset management, and lending. For example, real-time settlement of stock and bond trades normally take days. These transactions could happen in seconds with stablecoins. They also enable new business models like Banking-as-a-Service and Web3 integration, although regulatory costs and low interest rates remain hurdles for profitability.Or think about SWIFT transactions, the backbone of international payments. Stablecoins will not replace SWIFT, but they can supplement it. Payments that used to take days can now be completed in seconds, with up to 80 percent lower fees. But trust in issuers and compliance with anti-money laundering rules are critical. There's another topic on top of investors' minds. CBDCs – Central Bank Digital Currencies. Both stablecoins and CBDCs are digital. But digital currencies are issued by central banks and considered legal tender, whereas stablecoins are private-sector innovations. Japan is the world's fourth-largest economy and considered a leader in technology. But it takes a cautious approach to financial transformation. It is preparing for a CBDC but hasn't committed to launching one yet. If and when that happens, stablecoins and CBDCs can coexist, with the digital currency serving as public infrastructure and stablecoins driving innovation. So, what's the bottom line? Japan's stablecoin journey is just beginning, but its impact could ripple across payments, asset management, and even global finance. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.