Podcasts about Alternatives

Title: What They Don't Tell You About Raising Capital (Until It's Too Late) with Ben Fraser Summary: In this episode of the Invest Like a Billionaire podcast, host Ben Frasier interviews Seth Bradley, the Chief Legal Officer at TribeVest and an experienced securities attorney. They discuss Seth's transition from a big law background to becoming a passive investor and then an active capital raiser, detailing the steps involved in his journey. Seth shares insights on private placements and syndications, emphasizing the importance of understanding legal documents such as Private Placement Memorandums (PPMs) and operating agreements. The conversation also highlights key trends and shifts in capital raising, particularly the emergence of the fund-to-fund model, which allows passive investors to leverage their networks without taking an active role in deal management. Furthermore, Seth talks about the services provided by TribeVest to simplify the investment process for both passive investors and new fund managers. They touch upon the current state of the alternative investment market, discussing the advantages and opportunities available amid economic challenges. Links to listen and subscribe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/155-moving-from-passive-to-active-investor-feat-seth/id1587171662?i=1000652125962 Links to watch and subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiRq38II33s&t=1047s Bullet Point Highlights: Seth Bradley's Journey: Transitioned from big law to passive investing, and now to active capital raising. Understanding Legal Documents: Importance of critically reviewing PPMs and operating agreements as an investor. Red Flags in Investments: Identifying key terms and clauses in legal documents that can affect investor rights and returns. Fund-to-Fund Model: Insights into how new capital raisers can operate without needing to be actively involved in deals. TribeVest Services: Overview of how TribeVest supports fund managers with a streamlined legal and operational framework. Market Trends: Discussion on the evolution and current opportunities within the alternative investment space. Advice for Investors: Encouragement to dive into the market now to capitalize on upcoming opportunities as conditions stabilize. Transcript: hello future billionaires welcome back to another episode of the invest like a billionaire podcast today's guest is Seth Bradley very fun to talk with him he's friend of mine for several years and he's the chief legal officer at tribe vest which is a really cool company if you haven't heard of them we actually had their CEO and founder on about a year ago but they're kind of doing a really new cool push that I'm going to talk about in a sec but his background he's a big law Securities attorney spent a lot of time in kind of   corporate world transition really to kind of becoming a passive investor invest a lot of syndications so he talks a lot about his journey making that transition kind of going to generate passive income Financial Independence but then he's actually shifted back to becoming an active Capital Riser and he's seen a lot of people make this transition that been investing for a little bit and now want to kind of activate their Network and some of the stuff they're doing at Tri bestest is making this really really easy for   people so it's a really cool interview we kind of hit a lot of his journey from his perspective as a Securities attorney what are some of the big things you got to focus on when you're reviewing legal documents what are the red flags yellow flags Etc and then he kind of shares a little bit about some of the things and the trends going on in the kind of private placement syndication and capital raising worlds that if you haven't heard about some of these ideas you definitely want to tune in and listen because it's pretty cool I'm   seeing the same thing on my side of things so you're going to enjoy this episode he's a very very sharp guy and a lot of great insights that he shared I think you're going to love this episode please enjoy this is the invest like a billionaire podcast where we uncover the alternative investment and strategies that billionaires use to grow wealth the tools and tactics you'll learn from this podcast will make you a better investor and help you build Legacy wealth join us as we dive into the world   of alternative Investments uncover strategies of the ultra wealthy discuss economics and interview successful investors looking for Passive Investments done for you with and funds we help accredited investors that are looking for higher yields and diversification from the stock market as a passive investor we do all the work for you making sure your money is working hard for you in alternative investments in fact our team invests alongside you in every deal so our interests are aligned we focus on macr   driven alternative Investments so your portfolio is best positioned for this economic environment get started and download your free economic report today welcome back to another episode episode of the invest like a billionaire podcast I am your host Ben Frasier and joined by a very exciting guest Seth Bradley I've know Seth for several years he is the managing partner at Ray's law and the chief legal officer at tribe vest and uh Seth and I have done some business over the years and different things he's an   attorney and uh a very experienced Securities attorney and even has his own podcast called the passive income attorney podcast and so he comes with a really unique perspective both being an entrepreneur investor as well as an attorney gives him some really unique insights in this space of kind of private placements alternative Investments and super excited to have on the show so Seth thanks for coming on man Ben appreciate it man we finally got around to to recording this really really appreciate it man yeah it was   kind of fun because we reached out a couple years ago and uh we're we're gonna do something that never worked out and then all of a sudden you're ready to do the podcast tour and Pops back up three years later so hey let's do good I'm I'm gay man so looking forward to doing this now so give a little bit of uh context for your background uh for those who maybe aren't familiar with you and just kind of what you do in kind of the areas of expertise that you focus on as an attorney sure man so I worked in   big law for about seven years um most recently at a top three globally ranked Law Firm um as a real estate started out as a real estate attorney made my way over to Securities um at that point um I started kind of getting that you know mo as most entrepreneurs do that feeling like you want to do something else you don't want to have all these bosses you want to get out there and do your own thing um but you know I'd worked pretty hard to get where I was so I wanted to make sure that I knew what I was getting   myself into um I'd already been working with Real Estate Investors and folks like that as my clients um started talking to them started talking to some of the partners in my in my firm about how they invest what they do um really Lear learned about you know passive investing um and making my way kind of to the equity side and that's really where I my journey began as a passive investor in in syndications so I invested in a number of those um and also invested actively you know I kind of did the the Bigger Pockets uh you   know path where I listened to Bigger Pockets I did a you know house hack I did fix and flips I did buy and hold single families things like that as well as past investing in larger Investments um and at that point I realized hey I've got this network of attorneys and other folks that I can raise capital from so I made my way from passive investor to active investor man so you've done done the the full circle here I love it so started Big Lot and your bio says you Clos billions of dollars in real estate   transactions over the past decade so you've you've seen a lot of deals um I'd be curious because you know a lot of people that maybe newer to real estate investing newer to Alternative investments in general and just the world of private placements they kind naturally think hey the only way I can do it is you know the Bigger Pockets path which is a great path if you want to go and you know do it actively and have a second job so to speak where you go and buy your own real estate and and fix it up or work with contractors to   fix it up but you went straight into syndications which in a lot of ways uh fits better for uh people that are working professionals and you know don't want to necessarily trade time for wealth building already have a great income uh generator through the their job or their business and they want to just redeploy that into syndications so what was kind of the journey for you understanding the world of syndications and really with your background um insecurities law and how did you kind of get comfortable with that and what was   the Journey For You diving head first into syndications early on yeah I mean you really have to have skills uh money or time that those are the three things you can really offer right so it depends on how much of each one of those you have as to what your investment profile should look like and what you should get started in um I was actively wanting to participate in deals from the get-go but I did already have exposure from my real estate uh real estate practice to syndications and and watching other   people raise Capital knowing that those types of Investments are out there so I think I had an advantage there because prior to that I had no idea the only thing I knew was kind of that Bigger Pockets path it's like okay well house hack into a single family or dup or a duplex and then rent the other side out and then Fix and Flip This or wholesale that um I didn't really know about syndications other than through um my my law practice so I think I had that Advantage um get getting that exposure   and being able to transition to that quicker yeah talk a little bit about I mean your podcast is called passive income attorney and your your big goal is passive income and what was really kind of the idea behind that or why was that your primary goal and what does that mean to you yeah I mean the idea behind that was to be passive and I think we kind of as entrepreneurs we go back and forth I think we all want to end up on the completely passive side eventually but sometimes you don't get there as quickly   if you don't go on the active side for a little bit and I think I'm I'm seeing that a lot myself I did that I started investing passively and now I went to the active side as an active syndicator as a fund manager raising capital and participating in deals even on the operational side um because you can accelerate quicker that way if you the more time and effort that you put in the faster you can accelerate now a lot of folks out there especially pive investors listening if their doctors dentist lawyers they don't have time for   that so they need to invest passively that's probably the best use of their time because their highest and best use of their time is in their career being a doctor a dentist a lawyer an engineer where they're making a lot of money in their active income it doesn't really make sense that for them to start a fix flip business or wholesale business or even a syndication business really out of the gate until you figure out what what you want to do it makes more sense to take that active income put it into   passive investment vehicles that don't take any time away from your practice Yeah I love that what' you say there's you you one of three things skills time or money right and so one of those you're going to be trading to generate more passive income or wealth and wherever you're at in the Spectrum and where you're willing to kind of trade for for that invest I love that it's very uh makes a lot of sense so talk a little bit you know I want to get to what you said this in the minute kind of transitioning kind of bluring the line   of going back and forth between passive and active I think this is really interesting I've seen the same Trend but before we get there you know a lot of a lot of our listeners you know that are maybe newer to syndications newer to passive investing they um get a little bit shell shocked when they see a PPM or a set of legal docs to review for a deal and they they don't know what should I be focusing on what should I be looking for what are potential red flags or yellow flags and you know from your perspective and   I'm sure you probably saw a lot of things early on they like okay that's interesting or um you know making that transition you already had a leg up uh given your background but what are some kind of key things that you know maybe even coming into it you already had a leg up but now even 10 years later down the road have learned and things that you said you know hey this is way more important than I thought it was originally from from a pure passive standpoint because I think that's a roadblock for a lot of people yeah yeah   and you know it's intimidating right when you get that first PPM which is going to have exhibits to it and the exhibits are going to be an operating agreement subscription agreement maybe um maybe some marketing materials a business plan things like that you're looking at at least a 100 page document maybe it's 200 pages and if you're not a lawyer and used to looking at 100 page documents that is intimidating you're like what am I supposed to do this is going to take me you know this is like a month's worth reading if I'm actually   going to read this thing and really most past investors don't read it um but you should I mean you should at least start reading them um because it gets it gets easier and easier to read because they're all going to be very similar they're all going to have a similar structure and similar pieces and things to look out for I think one really important thing and you might not be able to do this the first time but you can start um kind of thinking about it but just really matching the PPM to the oper room because the PPM should really   be um kind of a a summary so to speak of the operating agreement because the operating agreement is the meat of what's actually going to be the the terms uh within that LLC within that investment and at the end of the day if something goes wrong or not even goes wrong but if there if there's some sort of um agreement or disagreement that needs to be figured out you're going to look at the operating agreement not necessarily the PPM to figure out uh what the next step is what is the mechanism for fixing this problem so you   know just making sure that the people PM accurately reflects what the operating agreement says is very important and and then taking a step further that the operating agreement and the PPM match what the lead sponsors are telling you let's say in the marketing materials or the webinar like just making sure that there's a clear picture between all the marketing materials the webinar um and the legal documentation is really important and sometimes if it doesn't make sense or there are certain terms   that don't match up you know maybe they're not as meticulous as they should be and you need to look elsewhere that that's a really important thing to look out for um kind of coming back to your question you know when when you're first starting as a passive investor all you're really looking at is the returns right you're comparing kind of your projected returns in this deal to your projected returns in this other deal and you might get a 2% more irr return projected in this one than that one so   you're going to go with this one but at the end of the day those are just projections right those are just projections and those can be manipulated those are based on assumptions from the lead sponsor and those are not the most important things the most important things are the the sponsor and their track record what they've done how they've performed um and you know the market and the deal itself but just those projected returns can be manipulated so that's really you know it's important at the beginning or at   least you think it's important and then later on you become a more um wiy vet in passive investing you'll realize it's not as important as as as some other things like hey are your fees aligned things like that like what are the Voting Rights like how what if something happens and the manager is doing a terrible job how can you possibly get them out like what are those mechanisms um what are the mechanisms for a capital call when things go wrong what what happens those are the those are the more   detailed things and the nuances you need to look at as a past investor rather than just looking at the projected returns that's a lot of lot of good nuggets right there you just listen to that skip back a few minutes and listen to it again because that's really good I think you're so right right if it just it can feel intimidating to look at a 100 page 200 Page document and where do I start but just start at the beginning just start reading it it just got to skim read it skim read it and just the more   you get familiarized with um these different document sets the more they all kind of seem similar over time and you can kind of notice the the things that are common among different deals and then you also kind of notice the things that pop up as oh that's kind of unique or that that's kind of different than what I've seen in other deals and that's maybe outside of the norm um and just kind of getting familiarized with it you're going to pick up a lot on it but I think you hit a few of the sections that I think are really   important that a lot of people kind of glaze over because if you're getting just looking at the here's the irr projection here's where turns are going to be like you said there's uh a lot of assumptions that go into what those numbers are derived from and you know I always come back to my banking background you know risk adjusted returns right because every element of uh every deal you know whatever return you're projecting there's different levels of risk and if you're you know taking a lot more risk in a particular   deal or strategy or structure the same level of return it's it's not Apples to Apples right and so understanding what that is from a deal standpoint but there's also risks uh some of the points you made within the legal structure and so he's saying go straight to the operating agreement as a starting point because that's ultim timately what's going to govern the the deal and the mechanisms for potentially firing the sponsor as a manager or like you said the capital call and the waterfall section understanding how does do   profits flow through the entity and what are the splits between them what are some things that maybe 10 years down the road now invested I don't know how many deals you've invested in passively but you look back you're like oh man you know what I I read that section and you know I kind of knew that maybe was a little outside the norm but I was so excited about the deal didn't really wasn't too concerned about it now looking back like oh man now that was that was a good learning experience because now you know maybe I can't vote   out the manager or you know different things that you would say looking back are more important that maybe you put weight on in the front end and maybe some examples of um you know especially right now I think a lot of a lot of deals that people invested over the past few years you know unfortunately are requiring Capital calls or are kind of headed in a direction that may not be good and um you know maybe it's the fault of the operator maybe it's not but if it is a fault of the operator What mechanisms do you have and what voting   rights do you have as a passive investor and talk a little bit about that because I think that's going to be very relevant especially over the next few years is sure certain older deals are kind of not hitting the projections they thought originally yeah I mean I think I already touched on most of them from a high level but like for instance um voting out the manager like if the manager is doing something um fraudulent or misrepresented what they were doing or you know really just doing a terrible   job is probably not a reason enough to get them out but it could be um if it gets to a certain certain point um but that's really one thing to to look for to see like what the mechanism is like does it take a unanimous Vote or does it take a majority vote or does it take a majority or super majority of each share class each membership class within the LLC so it it and typically they're set up so it's really difficult to get the manager out right because the lead sponsor is going to be the manager and   they're the ones that are going to be making all the decisions and they don't want to lose control so they wanted to make it as hard as possible um and still make it legal um to stay in that seat and not get voted out so you know you will see some pretty onerous um Provisions within the operating agreement to be able to get them out but there should be a reasonable way to do it whether that's a super majority vote perhaps that's that's reasonable so super majority vote um in the event of a misrepresentation fraud you know any   sort of like bad boy act by the the manager or if their bad performance reaches the level of you know negligence or something like that there just needs to be a mechanism to get them out that's that's just one example when you had mentioned Capital calls as well so Capital calls it's like what is the mechanism when the LLC or or the syndication needs additional operating expenses to survive what what is the mechanism to do that like can is the first step to actually do a capital call and is that Capital Call Mandatory   meaning that the investors have to participate um on a proat a basis or that's not typical so if you that's one thing to look out for if it is mandatory that you do and and if you don't then you're basically out or you lose uh you know an unreasonable amount of your Equity if you don't participate then perhaps that's a red flag right like if you don't participate um well I should say the capital call should be optional and if you don't participate that's okay um but you will most likely be watered   down your Equity will get watered down on a prata basis rather than something above a pro basis right so that's an example you're saying of if it's required which is uncommon right that that's that's a red flag potentially um or if you get diluted a higher than the proat mount is another another negative and you're exactly right I mean I think you know part of this is when you're when you're investing passively you're you're giving up control of of operating the deal to the sponsor right is so that that's kind of   the the trade-off is you're hiring experts you're investing with experts that hopefully know what they're doing so that you don't have to be doing the day-to-day stuff and so it can be difficult to replace managers and and uh you know have uh impactful voting rights uh that can change the outcome unless there's fraudulence or negligence but I think it kind of goes to the point too of understanding what these kind of parameters are and what's normal and then also like I think you can pick up a lot of what you're saying and just the   congruence between PPM the operating agreement the the offering memorandum the webinars and um and then really the alignment of Interest right because if ultimately if the sponsor stands to lose alongside the investors if they're not just getting rich just off of fees and you know does they don't have a whole lot of skin in the game then ultimately it might not be you know a great deal but if they have a lot of lot skin in the game and even if it's written in these certain ways it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad a bad   investment so okay love it get a little bit in the weeds there for for some people and if this is you know um newer to you I I definitely encourage you um to just start this you know opening up the bpms or reading them and you're going to pick up a lot by doing that and then just ask questions right and I think it's a great thing too that if you're reading the PBM and reading operating agreement to ask questions of the sponsor and that's usually pretty indicative of one how well do they know their own documents and to how willing   are they uh to address certain questions that maybe maybe concerns to you right and I think you can actually get a really good sense of um how they and how they respond of of what that interaction is going to be so love that thanks for some of that Insight Seth I'd love to shift a little bit uh you mentioned something earlier I I wanted to come back to is you you kind of you have said before you the future of capital raising is kind of Shifting and evolving and I think a lot of people are realizing and   I've seeing the same thing too right I'm a a coach and you know masterminds for Capital risers and this fun to fund model is becoming very popularized and people that maybe think oh I'm not really a capital Riser or you know that's that's not my you know what I've learned to do went to school to do or whatever or realizing hey actually I've been investing passively for a while I have a pretty great Network because I'm around a lot of accredited investors I've done enough to kind of know a good amount and   I can actually turn this into a business right and so talk a little bit about what the fun to fund model means and maybe someone that's in that boat where what you said is I think I'm gonna go 100% passive but then you know you're also learning a lot along the way and you have a a network that maybe you can activate and also raise capital and get get paid to do it compliantly that's right and and you said it and I'm seeing it time after time where past investors they invest in a number of deals and and   you know folks that are investing in these deals typically have a little bit of money and they probably have friends that have money as well and their their friends start asking them about the deals that they're investing in um and they start thinking hey you know what what can I can I get paid can I have a is there a business here that I can develop that I can build um by bringing in all my friends and family that might also be wealthy might be able to put these These funds together um and invest   in the deal together um you can certainly do that but you start to run into lots of Securities lots of rules and regulations that some people know about and some people don't you'd be surprised uh um that you know you see people out there raising capital in ways that they shouldn't do it um but what's great about the fund of funds model is that you know you're not a what's called a CP so you're not an active partner with the lead sponsor that's kind of the I'll call it the old way and I you know   I've been saying that the CP model is dead just to kind of put it out there that um you know we shouldn't be raising Capital with lead sponsors and then not doing anything else not participating in deal and and having an active role if you're a true cgp you need to have an active role in in the deal and that's kind of what deters um passive investors and doctors and dentists and lawyers and people like that that already have a career they don't want to take an active role right like they don't want to do   the asset management or manage the property manager or talk to tenants or anything like that and that's where the fund of fund solution comes in the fund of fund solution is really creating another syndication or another fund um that invests into the lead sponsor syndication or fund and that's where the name fund of fund comes from now traditionally the issue with that is well it does come with responsibilities for the fund manager they they have to put the deal they have to put their own fund together they have to put their cap   table together open a business banking account form an LLC get a Securities attorney um you know manage their investors manage their distributions do taxes all those sorts of things and so it turns into an active business and on top of that it's expensive because we are creating a second syndication a second fund to invest in that uh lead sponsor Target Fund um so that's the the problem that's always been the solution the fund of fund has always been the right solution but those problems that I   just mentioned are why it hasn't been widely adopted but you're seeing a big shift in the market as we're able to provide a more affordable option and a and a solution to bringing all those different services that a fund manager would normally have to go out and get themselves and putting it into a package yeah that makes a lot of sense and so like we said we're seeing the same thing where people are um they've been investing they they like what they're doing they have their friends and their family asking about the different deals   they're doing and then they have thought well hey I mean that's I can make money doing this and what most people have done historically is cgp model and for those that are unfamiliar with that is basically you raise money directly into the lead sponsor syndication or entity and then you get uh granted certain General partner shares for doing that but and you're the you're the attorney so I'm I'm gonna say at a very high level as I understand it by by doing that you are um uh well you can't raise   money and get paid for it unless you're a registered broker dealer unless you're General partner and uh are continuing to operate the uh the deal the business and have an active role in it but most people that are just raising capital or just want to raise Capital as um you know on the side of what else they're doing that's not a realistic expectation so what what we've seen I'm sure you probably see a lot more than me is these different uh uh folks that are raising capitalist cgps and then you know this   this new SP has about 10 different CPS on the list on the roster here and it's pretty hard to make an argument that they're all actively participated in managing the deal because you just don't need that many people right if it's the same deal and so then you kind of run into compliance risk and you just you don't want to mess with that I mean that's that's just let's leave it there and so the fun of fund model has always been around it's basically you create your own fund and as your own fund manager you're exempt from um uh some of   these uh securities issues to basically raise capital from your investors into your fund then that fund invests into the uh kind of the mothership fund or the the lead sponsors fund and by doing that you um you know it's you're in the in the you're not in the gray area anymore where it can kind of be um maybe not great from a compliance standpoint and the challenge as you mentioned though is it can be expensive maybe it's a little complicated to know how toell up and I'm not really a professional fund manager   how what do I know um but that's that's what you're doing now at triest and we've had Travis Smith on the podcast before so if you haven't listened to that episode um it's probably a year or so ago we'll put the put the link in the show notes because it's a um a great episode talking about tribe vest and what what you guys are doing really trying to from my perspective simplify the access and the kind of backend back office functions of um both for Passive investors and for fund managers to continue to increase   access to more to more deals so talk a little bit about kind of what you guys do at at tribe vest and to kind of help people um you know both from a passive standpoint that's want to direct the investors past investors that don't really want to do it as a business but then also kind of the new fund manager programs that you guys are putting together to help people that want to kind of activate their Network want to you know use this as a way to make money and um do it without having to be an expert in all the the backend side of   things absolutely at at Trio I'm the chief legal officer for tri best I help create the fun to fun product that we have out there right now it makes it simple TurnKey and affordable for anyone to really start a capital raising business um all those things that I mentioned before opening your business bank account um starting your LLC drafting your offering documents um getting your EIN onboarding your investors creating your cap table doing your distributions doing your taxes all those things you normally have to put   together and find different uh platforms and different people like attorneys and CPAs to help you out and put those put the the fund of fund together we do that we put it in a fund of fund we call it a fund of Fund in a box it's really a Lego block that you can use and invest in a deal like with Aspen if Aspen has a fund you can create your own fund you try best bring in your five or 10 uh best friends that want to put in some money you can carve out a piece for yourself so you actually get paid a fee a front   maybe you get paid a fee um during the uh hold period and then perhaps you get a percentage of the equity on the back end so it can be a very lucrative business for someone to get started and because triest makes it so easy to do it meaning put all these different services and things together for you it it really anyone can do it yeah that's so cool and we we've worked with you guys and have seen it in action and you know to say f Fund in a box sounds almost uh trite because it sounds like can you really do   that but it's it's cool because you guys have have solved it and and not only have you solved it but it's also pretty cost- effective right I think one of the big challenges with the fun of fund is generally you can invest if you kind of pull Capital together in a fund you can invest at better terms with a sponsor so you can have a little more margin that you can kind of get paid from and your investors still make the same returns um but if you have a lot of legal costs a lot of ongoing um kind of portal and   back office expenses and tax returns everything else then it gets kind of expensive and eats away at the margins that you know you're hoping to to use to pay yourself so you guys have kind of Crea a really streamlined um kind of off-the-shelf product that can fit majority of of offerings and make it pretty easy right that's right it gets really difficult to make it work that's again the fund of fund like we've talked about it's always been a solution it's just really expensive and really hard to put   it together um especially for someone that that isn't a professional Capital Riser um that just wants to put together $500,000 a million a million5 something like that it it it doesn't even make sense cost wise in the old way of doing it you're going to pay a Securities attorney minimum of like let's say 15,000 maybe 20 maybe $25,000 to put one of these together maybe even more I used to work at a big Law Firm where it cost $75,000 it's crazy the expenses that add up and that's just the legal piece that   doesn't include all the back office administration things that we talked about doesn't include um engaging with a CPA to do your taxes it doesn't include all those things that's just the legal cost by itself and tribe best has made it super inexpensive to be able to do this and to be able to do it time and time again so it works with a $500,000 raise it works with a million dollar raise you don't have to raise $20 million to make it work from an affordability standpoint yeah that makes sense so do   you guys also have like any kind of education or different coursework to help people that are you may want to make the transition of like yeah I think that that sounds like something I could do I my friends are always asking me what what I'm investing in and it wouldn't be that hard to go get five 10 friends to go and invest and create a fund and you know but they just don't they've never done it before they never thought about it till just now so right you guys have I know you're really more given the solution but do you also have   like any kind of education or do you have resources you guys can point people to to learn more about what does it look like to you know what what's what's the process you have to go through to um kind of go from idea to actual uh you know making a fund yeah yeah I'll tell you we don't have any formal legal or sorry formal educational things out there at the moment but we are working on that um but we have made it so simple that we can jump on a zoom call with anyone that that's in is potentially   interested in being a capital raiser and putting together a fund of fun and walk you through a pitch deck and it should be pretty clear what you need to do because we handle basically everything you you put together your investors you put together your terms and how you're going to get paid and then we'll be able to do kind of all that back office all that legal all those things that you don't want to know or don't want to do we handle all it yeah makes sense awesome well kind last question I just   love to get your insights on just the market in general for Alternatives and and private placements and you've obvious been in this space for over a decade and we've been in the space for about 11 years now as as an operator and it just feels I mean it's it's already been the amount of capital that's kind of come into kind of private Equity into real estate into private placements in eneral it's totally shifted the game but it also feels like we're still kind of early Innings right it still feels like   people are just discovering this for the first time and and even the conversation we're having of you know um activating people to raise Capital right in a compliant way that's just an easy way because you guys are creating a system that just reduces friction to continue to increase more Capital to come into the space like do you feel the same thing are you seen I know there's kind of some potential proposed regulation to you know increase the requirements for accreditation and you know there's   always a battle going back and forth on on that but what's kind of your sentiment just at a broader level of just the alternative kind of private placement space in over the next 10 years yeah I mean I'm I'm bullish right like we're we're kind of in a little bit of a lull right now um you'll hear that capital's a little bit harder to come by investors are holding on a little bit tighter um but that's because there's actually deals out there right now I mean said right now is actually a great time to invest right now is a great time   to invest because prices are are depressed a little bit um investors are a little bit reluctant to invest um there are less buyers in the market because a lot of them are getting kind of washed out um but there are some properties coming online through foreclosures through things like that this is where you know when you talk about during good times you're like oh man I cannot wait until there's blood in the streets and I'm going to pounce on it I'm want to pounce on those opportunities that time is right now it   it's not it's not you're you can be waiting on the sideline for years and you're gonna you're gonna miss it it's right now right now is the time to to figure out how to invest how to raise Capital how to do deals how to make them work because right now it's difficult to make them work that's that's the truth of it right now is the time to act and you're going in five years from now for instance you're going to look back to this time and say man I wish I would have got started because we're we're   we're going to be in the upswing again very soon totally no I was just uh I was a one of the guys I follow who's been in real estate for a long time he was talking and reminiscing about he bought uh I think he said three dozen single family homes between uh 2009 and 2011 right and he's held on to them since then and you know looking back he's like the only thing he wishes he did was buy more right because it's but at that point it was you know everything was on sale everyone was like real estate's over and it's it's so hard to   be contrarian I think it's Warren Buffet this said be uh you know fearful when everyone else is greedy and greedy when everyone else is fearful right it it's it's a simple idiom that makes sense but it's really hard to do and right now we're kind of in that that time where investors are reticent there's a lot of pressure on deals right now that's kind of creating a great buy opportunity you know we're seeing I know you're seeing it and uh you know I think I agree with you I think it's a great time to be to   be jumping in right now and uh Seth thanks so much for coming on man what's what's the best way for folks to get a hold of you and learn more about uh your law firm uh raise law and try vest if they want to learn more about what that looks like for sure uh the best place where I keep all my links is Seth Paul bradley.com um you'll have links to try best there links from my uh law firm and social media it's all posted on there okay we'll put that in the show notes and definitely appreciate you coming on   today set it awesome all right Ben appreciate it [Music] [Applause] [Music] man Links from the Show and Guest Info and Links https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiRq38II33s&t=1047s https://www.instagram.com/p/C5mNnwsv2fs/  https://aspenfunds.us/private-credit- https://www.investwithaspen.com/free-economic-report https://www.linkedin.com/in/benwfraser/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/aspen-funds/ https://www.instagram.com/aspenfunds/   Seth Bradley's Links: https://x.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.youtube.com/@sethbradleyesq www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.threads.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.instagram.com/sethbradleyesq/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethbradleyesq/ https://passiveincomeattorney.com/seth-bradley/ https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/sethbradleyesq https://medium.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.tiktok.com/@sethbradleyesq?lang=en

Today hosts Tiffany and Rachel dive into the muddy waters of hands-on assists. We discuss their complicated history, the different types of hands-on assists, and debate their pros and cons. We also talk about the importance of clear communication and consent, and alternatives you could employ instead. Listen in to hear how truly game-changing assists might be the ones that students find their way to on their own. — Show Notes: Differing attitudes toward hands-on assists over time [1:11] The case for hands-on assists, different types, asking for consent [4:13] Can a teacher know how a student feels by looking at them? [10:57] The same assists don't work for every teacher [15:12] The case against hands-on assists [16:19] Potential for injury [18:27] Overriding students' body autonomy [22:03] Alternatives to hands-on assists: language, demonstrations [26:53] Is touch within a yoga teacher's scope of practice? [29:51] Physical adjustment might disrupt students' internal experience [31:27] Final takeaways [36:13] — Links Mentioned: Watch this episode on YouTube You can learn more about this episode, and see the full show notes at YogaMedicine.com/podcast-140. And you can find out more about insider tips, online classes or information on our teacher trainings at YogaMedicine.com. To support our work, please leave us a 5 star review with your feedback on iTunes/Apple Podcasts.

www.verywisealternatives.comSharing how to add grounding to your routine Herbalist Viola

Title: What They Don't Tell You About Raising Capital (Until It's Too Late) with Ben Fraser Summary: In this episode of the Invest Like a Billionaire podcast, host Ben Frasier interviews Seth Bradley, the Chief Legal Officer at TribeVest and an experienced securities attorney. They discuss Seth's transition from a big law background to becoming a passive investor and then an active capital raiser, detailing the steps involved in his journey. Seth shares insights on private placements and syndications, emphasizing the importance of understanding legal documents such as Private Placement Memorandums (PPMs) and operating agreements. The conversation also highlights key trends and shifts in capital raising, particularly the emergence of the fund-to-fund model, which allows passive investors to leverage their networks without taking an active role in deal management. Furthermore, Seth talks about the services provided by TribeVest to simplify the investment process for both passive investors and new fund managers. They touch upon the current state of the alternative investment market, discussing the advantages and opportunities available amid economic challenges. Links to listen and subscribe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/155-moving-from-passive-to-active-investor-feat-seth/id1587171662?i=1000652125962 Links to watch and subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiRq38II33s&t=1047s Bullet Point Highlights: Seth Bradley's Journey: Transitioned from big law to passive investing, and now to active capital raising. Understanding Legal Documents: Importance of critically reviewing PPMs and operating agreements as an investor. Red Flags in Investments: Identifying key terms and clauses in legal documents that can affect investor rights and returns. Fund-to-Fund Model: Insights into how new capital raisers can operate without needing to be actively involved in deals. TribeVest Services: Overview of how TribeVest supports fund managers with a streamlined legal and operational framework. Market Trends: Discussion on the evolution and current opportunities within the alternative investment space. Advice for Investors: Encouragement to dive into the market now to capitalize on upcoming opportunities as conditions stabilize. Transcript: hello future billionaires welcome back to another episode of the invest like a billionaire podcast today's guest is Seth Bradley very fun to talk with him he's friend of mine for several years and he's the chief legal officer at tribe vest which is a really cool company if you haven't heard of them we actually had their CEO and founder on about a year ago but they're kind of doing a really new cool push that I'm going to talk about in a sec but his background he's a big law Securities attorney spent a lot of time in kind of   corporate world transition really to kind of becoming a passive investor invest a lot of syndications so he talks a lot about his journey making that transition kind of going to generate passive income Financial Independence but then he's actually shifted back to becoming an active Capital Riser and he's seen a lot of people make this transition that been investing for a little bit and now want to kind of activate their Network and some of the stuff they're doing at Tri bestest is making this really really easy for   people so it's a really cool interview we kind of hit a lot of his journey from his perspective as a Securities attorney what are some of the big things you got to focus on when you're reviewing legal documents what are the red flags yellow flags Etc and then he kind of shares a little bit about some of the things and the trends going on in the kind of private placement syndication and capital raising worlds that if you haven't heard about some of these ideas you definitely want to tune in and listen because it's pretty cool I'm   seeing the same thing on my side of things so you're going to enjoy this episode he's a very very sharp guy and a lot of great insights that he shared I think you're going to love this episode please enjoy this is the invest like a billionaire podcast where we uncover the alternative investment and strategies that billionaires use to grow wealth the tools and tactics you'll learn from this podcast will make you a better investor and help you build Legacy wealth join us as we dive into the world   of alternative Investments uncover strategies of the ultra wealthy discuss economics and interview successful investors looking for Passive Investments done for you with and funds we help accredited investors that are looking for higher yields and diversification from the stock market as a passive investor we do all the work for you making sure your money is working hard for you in alternative investments in fact our team invests alongside you in every deal so our interests are aligned we focus on macr   driven alternative Investments so your portfolio is best positioned for this economic environment get started and download your free economic report today welcome back to another episode episode of the invest like a billionaire podcast I am your host Ben Frasier and joined by a very exciting guest Seth Bradley I've know Seth for several years he is the managing partner at Ray's law and the chief legal officer at tribe vest and uh Seth and I have done some business over the years and different things he's an   attorney and uh a very experienced Securities attorney and even has his own podcast called the passive income attorney podcast and so he comes with a really unique perspective both being an entrepreneur investor as well as an attorney gives him some really unique insights in this space of kind of private placements alternative Investments and super excited to have on the show so Seth thanks for coming on man Ben appreciate it man we finally got around to to recording this really really appreciate it man yeah it was   kind of fun because we reached out a couple years ago and uh we're we're gonna do something that never worked out and then all of a sudden you're ready to do the podcast tour and Pops back up three years later so hey let's do good I'm I'm gay man so looking forward to doing this now so give a little bit of uh context for your background uh for those who maybe aren't familiar with you and just kind of what you do in kind of the areas of expertise that you focus on as an attorney sure man so I worked in   big law for about seven years um most recently at a top three globally ranked Law Firm um as a real estate started out as a real estate attorney made my way over to Securities um at that point um I started kind of getting that you know mo as most entrepreneurs do that feeling like you want to do something else you don't want to have all these bosses you want to get out there and do your own thing um but you know I'd worked pretty hard to get where I was so I wanted to make sure that I knew what I was getting   myself into um I'd already been working with Real Estate Investors and folks like that as my clients um started talking to them started talking to some of the partners in my in my firm about how they invest what they do um really Lear learned about you know passive investing um and making my way kind of to the equity side and that's really where I my journey began as a passive investor in in syndications so I invested in a number of those um and also invested actively you know I kind of did the the Bigger Pockets uh you   know path where I listened to Bigger Pockets I did a you know house hack I did fix and flips I did buy and hold single families things like that as well as past investing in larger Investments um and at that point I realized hey I've got this network of attorneys and other folks that I can raise capital from so I made my way from passive investor to active investor man so you've done done the the full circle here I love it so started Big Lot and your bio says you Clos billions of dollars in real estate   transactions over the past decade so you've you've seen a lot of deals um I'd be curious because you know a lot of people that maybe newer to real estate investing newer to Alternative investments in general and just the world of private placements they kind naturally think hey the only way I can do it is you know the Bigger Pockets path which is a great path if you want to go and you know do it actively and have a second job so to speak where you go and buy your own real estate and and fix it up or work with contractors to   fix it up but you went straight into syndications which in a lot of ways uh fits better for uh people that are working professionals and you know don't want to necessarily trade time for wealth building already have a great income uh generator through the their job or their business and they want to just redeploy that into syndications so what was kind of the journey for you understanding the world of syndications and really with your background um insecurities law and how did you kind of get comfortable with that and what was   the Journey For You diving head first into syndications early on yeah I mean you really have to have skills uh money or time that those are the three things you can really offer right so it depends on how much of each one of those you have as to what your investment profile should look like and what you should get started in um I was actively wanting to participate in deals from the get-go but I did already have exposure from my real estate uh real estate practice to syndications and and watching other   people raise Capital knowing that those types of Investments are out there so I think I had an advantage there because prior to that I had no idea the only thing I knew was kind of that Bigger Pockets path it's like okay well house hack into a single family or dup or a duplex and then rent the other side out and then Fix and Flip This or wholesale that um I didn't really know about syndications other than through um my my law practice so I think I had that Advantage um get getting that exposure   and being able to transition to that quicker yeah talk a little bit about I mean your podcast is called passive income attorney and your your big goal is passive income and what was really kind of the idea behind that or why was that your primary goal and what does that mean to you yeah I mean the idea behind that was to be passive and I think we kind of as entrepreneurs we go back and forth I think we all want to end up on the completely passive side eventually but sometimes you don't get there as quickly   if you don't go on the active side for a little bit and I think I'm I'm seeing that a lot myself I did that I started investing passively and now I went to the active side as an active syndicator as a fund manager raising capital and participating in deals even on the operational side um because you can accelerate quicker that way if you the more time and effort that you put in the faster you can accelerate now a lot of folks out there especially pive investors listening if their doctors dentist lawyers they don't have time for   that so they need to invest passively that's probably the best use of their time because their highest and best use of their time is in their career being a doctor a dentist a lawyer an engineer where they're making a lot of money in their active income it doesn't really make sense that for them to start a fix flip business or wholesale business or even a syndication business really out of the gate until you figure out what what you want to do it makes more sense to take that active income put it into   passive investment vehicles that don't take any time away from your practice Yeah I love that what' you say there's you you one of three things skills time or money right and so one of those you're going to be trading to generate more passive income or wealth and wherever you're at in the Spectrum and where you're willing to kind of trade for for that invest I love that it's very uh makes a lot of sense so talk a little bit you know I want to get to what you said this in the minute kind of transitioning kind of bluring the line   of going back and forth between passive and active I think this is really interesting I've seen the same Trend but before we get there you know a lot of a lot of our listeners you know that are maybe newer to syndications newer to passive investing they um get a little bit shell shocked when they see a PPM or a set of legal docs to review for a deal and they they don't know what should I be focusing on what should I be looking for what are potential red flags or yellow flags and you know from your perspective and   I'm sure you probably saw a lot of things early on they like okay that's interesting or um you know making that transition you already had a leg up uh given your background but what are some kind of key things that you know maybe even coming into it you already had a leg up but now even 10 years later down the road have learned and things that you said you know hey this is way more important than I thought it was originally from from a pure passive standpoint because I think that's a roadblock for a lot of people yeah yeah   and you know it's intimidating right when you get that first PPM which is going to have exhibits to it and the exhibits are going to be an operating agreement subscription agreement maybe um maybe some marketing materials a business plan things like that you're looking at at least a 100 page document maybe it's 200 pages and if you're not a lawyer and used to looking at 100 page documents that is intimidating you're like what am I supposed to do this is going to take me you know this is like a month's worth reading if I'm actually   going to read this thing and really most past investors don't read it um but you should I mean you should at least start reading them um because it gets it gets easier and easier to read because they're all going to be very similar they're all going to have a similar structure and similar pieces and things to look out for I think one really important thing and you might not be able to do this the first time but you can start um kind of thinking about it but just really matching the PPM to the oper room because the PPM should really   be um kind of a a summary so to speak of the operating agreement because the operating agreement is the meat of what's actually going to be the the terms uh within that LLC within that investment and at the end of the day if something goes wrong or not even goes wrong but if there if there's some sort of um agreement or disagreement that needs to be figured out you're going to look at the operating agreement not necessarily the PPM to figure out uh what the next step is what is the mechanism for fixing this problem so you   know just making sure that the people PM accurately reflects what the operating agreement says is very important and and then taking a step further that the operating agreement and the PPM match what the lead sponsors are telling you let's say in the marketing materials or the webinar like just making sure that there's a clear picture between all the marketing materials the webinar um and the legal documentation is really important and sometimes if it doesn't make sense or there are certain terms   that don't match up you know maybe they're not as meticulous as they should be and you need to look elsewhere that that's a really important thing to look out for um kind of coming back to your question you know when when you're first starting as a passive investor all you're really looking at is the returns right you're comparing kind of your projected returns in this deal to your projected returns in this other deal and you might get a 2% more irr return projected in this one than that one so   you're going to go with this one but at the end of the day those are just projections right those are just projections and those can be manipulated those are based on assumptions from the lead sponsor and those are not the most important things the most important things are the the sponsor and their track record what they've done how they've performed um and you know the market and the deal itself but just those projected returns can be manipulated so that's really you know it's important at the beginning or at   least you think it's important and then later on you become a more um wiy vet in passive investing you'll realize it's not as important as as as some other things like hey are your fees aligned things like that like what are the Voting Rights like how what if something happens and the manager is doing a terrible job how can you possibly get them out like what are those mechanisms um what are the mechanisms for a capital call when things go wrong what what happens those are the those are the more   detailed things and the nuances you need to look at as a past investor rather than just looking at the projected returns that's a lot of lot of good nuggets right there you just listen to that skip back a few minutes and listen to it again because that's really good I think you're so right right if it just it can feel intimidating to look at a 100 page 200 Page document and where do I start but just start at the beginning just start reading it it just got to skim read it skim read it and just the more   you get familiarized with um these different document sets the more they all kind of seem similar over time and you can kind of notice the the things that are common among different deals and then you also kind of notice the things that pop up as oh that's kind of unique or that that's kind of different than what I've seen in other deals and that's maybe outside of the norm um and just kind of getting familiarized with it you're going to pick up a lot on it but I think you hit a few of the sections that I think are really   important that a lot of people kind of glaze over because if you're getting just looking at the here's the irr projection here's where turns are going to be like you said there's uh a lot of assumptions that go into what those numbers are derived from and you know I always come back to my banking background you know risk adjusted returns right because every element of uh every deal you know whatever return you're projecting there's different levels of risk and if you're you know taking a lot more risk in a particular   deal or strategy or structure the same level of return it's it's not Apples to Apples right and so understanding what that is from a deal standpoint but there's also risks uh some of the points you made within the legal structure and so he's saying go straight to the operating agreement as a starting point because that's ultim timately what's going to govern the the deal and the mechanisms for potentially firing the sponsor as a manager or like you said the capital call and the waterfall section understanding how does do   profits flow through the entity and what are the splits between them what are some things that maybe 10 years down the road now invested I don't know how many deals you've invested in passively but you look back you're like oh man you know what I I read that section and you know I kind of knew that maybe was a little outside the norm but I was so excited about the deal didn't really wasn't too concerned about it now looking back like oh man now that was that was a good learning experience because now you know maybe I can't vote   out the manager or you know different things that you would say looking back are more important that maybe you put weight on in the front end and maybe some examples of um you know especially right now I think a lot of a lot of deals that people invested over the past few years you know unfortunately are requiring Capital calls or are kind of headed in a direction that may not be good and um you know maybe it's the fault of the operator maybe it's not but if it is a fault of the operator What mechanisms do you have and what voting   rights do you have as a passive investor and talk a little bit about that because I think that's going to be very relevant especially over the next few years is sure certain older deals are kind of not hitting the projections they thought originally yeah I mean I think I already touched on most of them from a high level but like for instance um voting out the manager like if the manager is doing something um fraudulent or misrepresented what they were doing or you know really just doing a terrible   job is probably not a reason enough to get them out but it could be um if it gets to a certain certain point um but that's really one thing to to look for to see like what the mechanism is like does it take a unanimous Vote or does it take a majority vote or does it take a majority or super majority of each share class each membership class within the LLC so it it and typically they're set up so it's really difficult to get the manager out right because the lead sponsor is going to be the manager and   they're the ones that are going to be making all the decisions and they don't want to lose control so they wanted to make it as hard as possible um and still make it legal um to stay in that seat and not get voted out so you know you will see some pretty onerous um Provisions within the operating agreement to be able to get them out but there should be a reasonable way to do it whether that's a super majority vote perhaps that's that's reasonable so super majority vote um in the event of a misrepresentation fraud you know any   sort of like bad boy act by the the manager or if their bad performance reaches the level of you know negligence or something like that there just needs to be a mechanism to get them out that's that's just one example when you had mentioned Capital calls as well so Capital calls it's like what is the mechanism when the LLC or or the syndication needs additional operating expenses to survive what what is the mechanism to do that like can is the first step to actually do a capital call and is that Capital Call Mandatory   meaning that the investors have to participate um on a proat a basis or that's not typical so if you that's one thing to look out for if it is mandatory that you do and and if you don't then you're basically out or you lose uh you know an unreasonable amount of your Equity if you don't participate then perhaps that's a red flag right like if you don't participate um well I should say the capital call should be optional and if you don't participate that's okay um but you will most likely be watered   down your Equity will get watered down on a prata basis rather than something above a pro basis right so that's an example you're saying of if it's required which is uncommon right that that's that's a red flag potentially um or if you get diluted a higher than the proat mount is another another negative and you're exactly right I mean I think you know part of this is when you're when you're investing passively you're you're giving up control of of operating the deal to the sponsor right is so that that's kind of   the the trade-off is you're hiring experts you're investing with experts that hopefully know what they're doing so that you don't have to be doing the day-to-day stuff and so it can be difficult to replace managers and and uh you know have uh impactful voting rights uh that can change the outcome unless there's fraudulence or negligence but I think it kind of goes to the point too of understanding what these kind of parameters are and what's normal and then also like I think you can pick up a lot of what you're saying and just the   congruence between PPM the operating agreement the the offering memorandum the webinars and um and then really the alignment of Interest right because if ultimately if the sponsor stands to lose alongside the investors if they're not just getting rich just off of fees and you know does they don't have a whole lot of skin in the game then ultimately it might not be you know a great deal but if they have a lot of lot skin in the game and even if it's written in these certain ways it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad a bad   investment so okay love it get a little bit in the weeds there for for some people and if this is you know um newer to you I I definitely encourage you um to just start this you know opening up the bpms or reading them and you're going to pick up a lot by doing that and then just ask questions right and I think it's a great thing too that if you're reading the PBM and reading operating agreement to ask questions of the sponsor and that's usually pretty indicative of one how well do they know their own documents and to how willing   are they uh to address certain questions that maybe maybe concerns to you right and I think you can actually get a really good sense of um how they and how they respond of of what that interaction is going to be so love that thanks for some of that Insight Seth I'd love to shift a little bit uh you mentioned something earlier I I wanted to come back to is you you kind of you have said before you the future of capital raising is kind of Shifting and evolving and I think a lot of people are realizing and   I've seeing the same thing too right I'm a a coach and you know masterminds for Capital risers and this fun to fund model is becoming very popularized and people that maybe think oh I'm not really a capital Riser or you know that's that's not my you know what I've learned to do went to school to do or whatever or realizing hey actually I've been investing passively for a while I have a pretty great Network because I'm around a lot of accredited investors I've done enough to kind of know a good amount and   I can actually turn this into a business right and so talk a little bit about what the fun to fund model means and maybe someone that's in that boat where what you said is I think I'm gonna go 100% passive but then you know you're also learning a lot along the way and you have a a network that maybe you can activate and also raise capital and get get paid to do it compliantly that's right and and you said it and I'm seeing it time after time where past investors they invest in a number of deals and and   you know folks that are investing in these deals typically have a little bit of money and they probably have friends that have money as well and their their friends start asking them about the deals that they're investing in um and they start thinking hey you know what what can I can I get paid can I have a is there a business here that I can develop that I can build um by bringing in all my friends and family that might also be wealthy might be able to put these These funds together um and invest   in the deal together um you can certainly do that but you start to run into lots of Securities lots of rules and regulations that some people know about and some people don't you'd be surprised uh um that you know you see people out there raising capital in ways that they shouldn't do it um but what's great about the fund of funds model is that you know you're not a what's called a CP so you're not an active partner with the lead sponsor that's kind of the I'll call it the old way and I you know   I've been saying that the CP model is dead just to kind of put it out there that um you know we shouldn't be raising Capital with lead sponsors and then not doing anything else not participating in deal and and having an active role if you're a true cgp you need to have an active role in in the deal and that's kind of what deters um passive investors and doctors and dentists and lawyers and people like that that already have a career they don't want to take an active role right like they don't want to do   the asset management or manage the property manager or talk to tenants or anything like that and that's where the fund of fund solution comes in the fund of fund solution is really creating another syndication or another fund um that invests into the lead sponsor syndication or fund and that's where the name fund of fund comes from now traditionally the issue with that is well it does come with responsibilities for the fund manager they they have to put the deal they have to put their own fund together they have to put their cap   table together open a business banking account form an LLC get a Securities attorney um you know manage their investors manage their distributions do taxes all those sorts of things and so it turns into an active business and on top of that it's expensive because we are creating a second syndication a second fund to invest in that uh lead sponsor Target Fund um so that's the the problem that's always been the solution the fund of fund has always been the right solution but those problems that I   just mentioned are why it hasn't been widely adopted but you're seeing a big shift in the market as we're able to provide a more affordable option and a and a solution to bringing all those different services that a fund manager would normally have to go out and get themselves and putting it into a package yeah that makes a lot of sense and so like we said we're seeing the same thing where people are um they've been investing they they like what they're doing they have their friends and their family asking about the different deals   they're doing and then they have thought well hey I mean that's I can make money doing this and what most people have done historically is cgp model and for those that are unfamiliar with that is basically you raise money directly into the lead sponsor syndication or entity and then you get uh granted certain General partner shares for doing that but and you're the you're the attorney so I'm I'm gonna say at a very high level as I understand it by by doing that you are um uh well you can't raise   money and get paid for it unless you're a registered broker dealer unless you're General partner and uh are continuing to operate the uh the deal the business and have an active role in it but most people that are just raising capital or just want to raise Capital as um you know on the side of what else they're doing that's not a realistic expectation so what what we've seen I'm sure you probably see a lot more than me is these different uh uh folks that are raising capitalist cgps and then you know this   this new SP has about 10 different CPS on the list on the roster here and it's pretty hard to make an argument that they're all actively participated in managing the deal because you just don't need that many people right if it's the same deal and so then you kind of run into compliance risk and you just you don't want to mess with that I mean that's that's just let's leave it there and so the fun of fund model has always been around it's basically you create your own fund and as your own fund manager you're exempt from um uh some of   these uh securities issues to basically raise capital from your investors into your fund then that fund invests into the uh kind of the mothership fund or the the lead sponsors fund and by doing that you um you know it's you're in the in the you're not in the gray area anymore where it can kind of be um maybe not great from a compliance standpoint and the challenge as you mentioned though is it can be expensive maybe it's a little complicated to know how toell up and I'm not really a professional fund manager   how what do I know um but that's that's what you're doing now at triest and we've had Travis Smith on the podcast before so if you haven't listened to that episode um it's probably a year or so ago we'll put the put the link in the show notes because it's a um a great episode talking about tribe vest and what what you guys are doing really trying to from my perspective simplify the access and the kind of backend back office functions of um both for Passive investors and for fund managers to continue to increase   access to more to more deals so talk a little bit about kind of what you guys do at at tribe vest and to kind of help people um you know both from a passive standpoint that's want to direct the investors past investors that don't really want to do it as a business but then also kind of the new fund manager programs that you guys are putting together to help people that want to kind of activate their Network want to you know use this as a way to make money and um do it without having to be an expert in all the the backend side of   things absolutely at at Trio I'm the chief legal officer for tri best I help create the fun to fun product that we have out there right now it makes it simple TurnKey and affordable for anyone to really start a capital raising business um all those things that I mentioned before opening your business bank account um starting your LLC drafting your offering documents um getting your EIN onboarding your investors creating your cap table doing your distributions doing your taxes all those things you normally have to put   together and find different uh platforms and different people like attorneys and CPAs to help you out and put those put the the fund of fund together we do that we put it in a fund of fund we call it a fund of Fund in a box it's really a Lego block that you can use and invest in a deal like with Aspen if Aspen has a fund you can create your own fund you try best bring in your five or 10 uh best friends that want to put in some money you can carve out a piece for yourself so you actually get paid a fee a front   maybe you get paid a fee um during the uh hold period and then perhaps you get a percentage of the equity on the back end so it can be a very lucrative business for someone to get started and because triest makes it so easy to do it meaning put all these different services and things together for you it it really anyone can do it yeah that's so cool and we we've worked with you guys and have seen it in action and you know to say f Fund in a box sounds almost uh trite because it sounds like can you really do   that but it's it's cool because you guys have have solved it and and not only have you solved it but it's also pretty cost- effective right I think one of the big challenges with the fun of fund is generally you can invest if you kind of pull Capital together in a fund you can invest at better terms with a sponsor so you can have a little more margin that you can kind of get paid from and your investors still make the same returns um but if you have a lot of legal costs a lot of ongoing um kind of portal and   back office expenses and tax returns everything else then it gets kind of expensive and eats away at the margins that you know you're hoping to to use to pay yourself so you guys have kind of Crea a really streamlined um kind of off-the-shelf product that can fit majority of of offerings and make it pretty easy right that's right it gets really difficult to make it work that's again the fund of fund like we've talked about it's always been a solution it's just really expensive and really hard to put   it together um especially for someone that that isn't a professional Capital Riser um that just wants to put together $500,000 a million a million5 something like that it it it doesn't even make sense cost wise in the old way of doing it you're going to pay a Securities attorney minimum of like let's say 15,000 maybe 20 maybe $25,000 to put one of these together maybe even more I used to work at a big Law Firm where it cost $75,000 it's crazy the expenses that add up and that's just the legal piece that   doesn't include all the back office administration things that we talked about doesn't include um engaging with a CPA to do your taxes it doesn't include all those things that's just the legal cost by itself and tribe best has made it super inexpensive to be able to do this and to be able to do it time and time again so it works with a $500,000 raise it works with a million dollar raise you don't have to raise $20 million to make it work from an affordability standpoint yeah that makes sense so do   you guys also have like any kind of education or different coursework to help people that are you may want to make the transition of like yeah I think that that sounds like something I could do I my friends are always asking me what what I'm investing in and it wouldn't be that hard to go get five 10 friends to go and invest and create a fund and you know but they just don't they've never done it before they never thought about it till just now so right you guys have I know you're really more given the solution but do you also have   like any kind of education or do you have resources you guys can point people to to learn more about what does it look like to you know what what's what's the process you have to go through to um kind of go from idea to actual uh you know making a fund yeah yeah I'll tell you we don't have any formal legal or sorry formal educational things out there at the moment but we are working on that um but we have made it so simple that we can jump on a zoom call with anyone that that's in is potentially   interested in being a capital raiser and putting together a fund of fun and walk you through a pitch deck and it should be pretty clear what you need to do because we handle basically everything you you put together your investors you put together your terms and how you're going to get paid and then we'll be able to do kind of all that back office all that legal all those things that you don't want to know or don't want to do we handle all it yeah makes sense awesome well kind last question I just   love to get your insights on just the market in general for Alternatives and and private placements and you've obvious been in this space for over a decade and we've been in the space for about 11 years now as as an operator and it just feels I mean it's it's already been the amount of capital that's kind of come into kind of private Equity into real estate into private placements in eneral it's totally shifted the game but it also feels like we're still kind of early Innings right it still feels like   people are just discovering this for the first time and and even the conversation we're having of you know um activating people to raise Capital right in a compliant way that's just an easy way because you guys are creating a system that just reduces friction to continue to increase more Capital to come into the space like do you feel the same thing are you seen I know there's kind of some potential proposed regulation to you know increase the requirements for accreditation and you know there's   always a battle going back and forth on on that but what's kind of your sentiment just at a broader level of just the alternative kind of private placement space in over the next 10 years yeah I mean I'm I'm bullish right like we're we're kind of in a little bit of a lull right now um you'll hear that capital's a little bit harder to come by investors are holding on a little bit tighter um but that's because there's actually deals out there right now I mean said right now is actually a great time to invest right now is a great time   to invest because prices are are depressed a little bit um investors are a little bit reluctant to invest um there are less buyers in the market because a lot of them are getting kind of washed out um but there are some properties coming online through foreclosures through things like that this is where you know when you talk about during good times you're like oh man I cannot wait until there's blood in the streets and I'm going to pounce on it I'm want to pounce on those opportunities that time is right now it   it's not it's not you're you can be waiting on the sideline for years and you're gonna you're gonna miss it it's right now right now is the time to to figure out how to invest how to raise Capital how to do deals how to make them work because right now it's difficult to make them work that's that's the truth of it right now is the time to act and you're going in five years from now for instance you're going to look back to this time and say man I wish I would have got started because we're we're   we're going to be in the upswing again very soon totally no I was just uh I was a one of the guys I follow who's been in real estate for a long time he was talking and reminiscing about he bought uh I think he said three dozen single family homes between uh 2009 and 2011 right and he's held on to them since then and you know looking back he's like the only thing he wishes he did was buy more right because it's but at that point it was you know everything was on sale everyone was like real estate's over and it's it's so hard to   be contrarian I think it's Warren Buffet this said be uh you know fearful when everyone else is greedy and greedy when everyone else is fearful right it it's it's a simple idiom that makes sense but it's really hard to do and right now we're kind of in that that time where investors are reticent there's a lot of pressure on deals right now that's kind of creating a great buy opportunity you know we're seeing I know you're seeing it and uh you know I think I agree with you I think it's a great time to be to   be jumping in right now and uh Seth thanks so much for coming on man what's what's the best way for folks to get a hold of you and learn more about uh your law firm uh raise law and try vest if they want to learn more about what that looks like for sure uh the best place where I keep all my links is Seth Paul bradley.com um you'll have links to try best there links from my uh law firm and social media it's all posted on there okay we'll put that in the show notes and definitely appreciate you coming on   today set it awesome all right Ben appreciate it [Music] [Applause] [Music] man Links from the Show and Guest Info and Links https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiRq38II33s&t=1047s https://www.instagram.com/p/C5mNnwsv2fs/  https://aspenfunds.us/private-credit- https://www.investwithaspen.com/free-economic-report https://www.linkedin.com/in/benwfraser/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/aspen-funds/ https://www.instagram.com/aspenfunds/   Seth Bradley's Links: https://x.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.youtube.com/@sethbradleyesq www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.threads.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.instagram.com/sethbradleyesq/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethbradleyesq/ https://passiveincomeattorney.com/seth-bradley/ https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/sethbradleyesq https://medium.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.tiktok.com/@sethbradleyesq?lang=en

U.S. tariffs have had limited impact so far on inflation and corporate earnings. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why – and when – that might change.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why tariffs are showing up everywhere – but the data; and why we think this changes this quarter. It's Wednesday, July 16th at 2pm in London. Investors have faced tariff headlines since at least February. The fact that it's now mid-July and markets are still grinding higher is driving some understandable skepticism that they're going to have their promised impact. Indeed, we imagine that maybe more of one of you is groaning and saying, ‘What? Another tariff episode?' But we do think this theme remains important for markets. And above all, it's a factor we think is going to hit very soon. We think it's kind of now – the third quarter – when the promised impact of tariffs on economic data and earnings really start to come through. My colleague Jenna Giannelli and I discussed some of the reasons why, on last week's episode focused on the retail sector. But what I want to do next is give a little bit of that a broader context. Where I want to start is that it's really about tariff impact picking up right about now. The inflation readings that we got earlier this week started to show US core inflation picking up again, driven by more tariff sensitive sectors. And while second quarter earnings that are being reported right about now, we think will generally be fine, and maybe even a bit better than expected; the third quarter earnings that are going to be generated over the next several months, we think those are more at risk from tariff related impact. And again, this could be especially pronounced in the consumer and retail sector. So why have tariffs not mattered so much so far, and why would that change very soon? The first factor is that tariff rates are increasing rapidly. They've moved up quickly to a historically high 9 percent as of today; even with all of the pauses and delays. And recently announced actions by the US administration over just the last couple of weeks could effectively double this rate again -- from 9 percent to somewhere between 15 to 20 percent.A second reason why this is picking up now is that tariff collections are picking up now. US Customs collected over $26 billion in tariffs in June, which annualizes out to about 1 percent of GDP, a very large number. These collections were not nearly as high just three months ago. Third, tariffs have seen pauses and delayed starts, which would delay the impact. And tariffs also exempted goods that were in transit, which can be significant from goods coming from Europe or Asia; again, a factor that would delay the impact. But these delays are starting to come to fruition as those higher tariff collections and higher tariff rates would suggest. And finally, companies did see tariffs coming and tried to mitigate them. They ordered a lot of inventory ahead of tariff rates coming into effect. But by the third quarter, we think they've sold a lot of that inventory, meaning they no longer get the benefit. Companies ordered a lot of socks before tariffs went into effect. But by the third quarter and those third quarter earnings, we think they will have sold them all. And the new socks they're ordering, well, they come with a higher cost of goods sold. In short, we think it's reasonable to expect that the bulk of the impact of tariffs and economic and earnings data still lies ahead, especially in this quarter – the third quarter of 2025. We continue to think that it's probably in August and September rather than June-July, where the market will care more about these challenges as core inflation data continues to pick up. For credit, this leaves us with an up in quality bias, especially as we move through that August to September period. And as Jenna and I discussed last week, we are especially cautious on the retail credit sector, which we think is more exposed to these various factors converging in the third quarter. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen; and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market.It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist.James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar.At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent...Paul Walsh: Yeah.Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar.Paul Walsh: That's right.James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear.Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar.But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah.Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility.So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies.And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you?Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies.So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings.Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul.Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

CBDCs aren't just “on the way”; they're already being tested and quietly rolled out around the world. They promise convenience and safety, but what they really offer is unprecedented surveillance, control over your money, and the end of financial privacy as we know it. In this explosive episode, I am joined by independent journalist and freedom advocate Efrat Fenigson to uncover what central banks are really planning and how individuals can escape the trap before it's too late. IN TODAY'S EPISODE: Tune in to learn exactly what makes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) so dangerous Hear Efrat break down how governments plan to enforce behaviour through programmable money Find out why Bitcoin is the real exit plan, not just a speculative asset Listen in to discover what you can do right now to build your personal Plan-B FOLLOW EFRAT FENIGSON Find Efrat Fenigson on X @Efenigson THE EXPAT MONEY ONLINE SUMMIT 2025: THE FUTURE IS LATIN AMERICA Join the Expat Money Online Summit 2025 for three high-impact days focused on why Latin America is becoming the ultimate destination for expats, investors, and freedom-seekers in 2025 and beyond. You'll gain exclusive insights from dozens of seasoned offshore experts as they reveal the best strategies to legally slash your tax bill, build real wealth overseas, and unlock second residencies and passports—all centred around Latin America's rising power on the global stage. Reserve your free ticket today. RELATED EPISODES 351: Nine Legal Flag-Planting Strategies To Protect Your Freedom & Wealth 345: Reject the Black Pill & Find Freedom Offshore 341: AI, Inflation & Economic Collapse: The Future Of Money – Thorsten WittmannMentioned in this episode:Join Us For Upcoming Live WebinarsEvery month, we offer exciting new webinars for our community. Topics include how to use retirement accounts to buy real estate overseas, how to get a second passport in Latin America, why you should sell your stock portfolio and move your money offshore, how to buy a beachfront rental property in Brazil for less than $100k, or apartments in Paraguay for $60k. If you want to join us for FREE for these presentations with live Q&A, insider secrets, and exclusive opportunities with my professional network of experts, then sign up today.Webinars - Expat MoneyInto The Amazon—Then Straight To The BeachThis year, I'm taking a private group into the Amazon rainforest—then we head to Fortaleza and explore Brazil's booming Northeast coast. Think Amazon river cruises, beachfront developments, and...

With the US dollar battered by stop-start tariff policy, fiscal profligacy and questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, where should investors turn? The dollar index, which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six others including the pound, euro and yen, slumped more than 10% in the first half of 2025, the worst start to the year since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system in 1973.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market. It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist. James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism. Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar. At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate. Paul Walsh: Yeah. James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent... Paul Walsh: Yeah. Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar. Paul Walsh: That's right. James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear. Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar. But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, so we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility. So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies. And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you? Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies. So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings. Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul. Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Subscribe, like, and leave us a comment!Huge Thanks to sponsor of this episode, Sweetwater. https://www.sweetwater.com/shop/dipped-in-tone/ Check all the gear we use here and more!The Dipped boys are back at it, this time discussing the best alternatives to the classics. We dive into the best (in our opinion) high end and more affordable alternatives. Check out our new site & merch https://www.dippedintone.com/Support us on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/dippedintoneFollow us on Instagram: https://instagram.com/dippedintoneDipped in Tone is:Rhett Shull https://www.rhettshull.com/Zach Broyles / Mythos Pedals https://mythospedals.com & https://highvoltageguitars.com/Edited by Addison! https://www.instagram.com/addisonsauvan/

Stocks hold steady as tariff uncertainty continues. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how policy deferrals, earnings resilience and forward guidance are driving the market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why stocks remain so resilient. It's Monday, July 14th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Why has the equity market been resilient in the face of new tariff announcements? Well first, the import cost exposure for S&P 500 industries is more limited given the deferrals and exemptions still in place like the USMCA compliant imports from Mexico. Second, the higher tariff rates recently announced on several trading partners are generally not perceived to be the final rates as negotiations progress. I continue to believe these tariffs will ultimately end up looking like a 10 percent consumption tax on imports that generate significant revenue for the Treasury. And finally, many companies pre-stocked inventory before the tariffs were levied and so the higher priced goods have not yet flowed through the cost of goods sold. Furthermore, with the market's tariffs concerns having peaked in early April, the market is looking forward and focused on the data it can measure. On that score, the dramatic v-shaped rebound in earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 has been a fundamental tailwind that justifies the equity rally since April in the face of continued trade and macro uncertainty. This gauge is one of our favorites for predicting equity prices and it troughed at -25 percent in mid-April. It's now at +3 percent. The sectors with the most positive earnings revisions breadth relative to the S&P 500 are Financials, Industrials and Software — three sectors we continue to recommend due to this dynamic. The other more recent development helping to support equities is the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. While this Bill does not provide incremental fiscal spending to support the economy or lower the statutory tax rate, it does lower the cash earnings tax rates for companies that spend heavily on both R&D and Capital Goods.Our Global Tax Team believes we could see cash tax rates fall from 20 percent today back toward the 13 percent level that existed before some of these benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expired in 2022. This benefit is also likely to jump start what has been an anemic capital spending cycle for corporate America, which could drive both higher GDP and revenue growth for the companies that provide the type of equipment that falls under this category of spending. Meanwhile, the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income is a tax incentive that benefits U.S. companies earning income from foreign markets. It was designed to encourage companies to keep their intellectual property in the U.S. rather than moving it to countries with lower tax rates. This deduction was scheduled to decrease in 2026, which would have raised the effective tax rate by approximately 3 percent. That risk has been eliminated in the Big Beautiful Bill. Finally, the Digital Service Tax imposed on online companies that operate overseas may be reduced. Late last month, Canada announced that it would rescind its Digital Service Tax on the U.S. in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the U.S. This would be a major windfall for online companies and some see the potential for more countries, particularly in Europe, to follow Canada's lead as trade negotiations with the U.S. continue. Bottom line, while uncertainty around tariffs remains high, there are many other positive drivers for earnings growth over the next year that could more than offset any headwinds from these policies. This suggests the recent rally in stocks is justified and that investors may not be as complacent as some are fearing. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Send us a textMaking informed decisions for your newborn can feel like navigating a tidal wave of contradictory advice, especially when it comes to routine procedures like the vitamin K shot. As both a labor nurse who's cared for countless babies and a mom who's stood in your shoes, I created this episode to cut through the noise with evidence, empathy, and respect for your values.Vitamin K is essential for blood clotting, and all newborns—regardless of how healthy the pregnancy was—are born with extremely low levels, about 1/50th of what adults have. The vitamin K shot provides protection during those vulnerable first months when even a small internal bleed could become serious. While vitamin K deficiency bleeding is rare, occurring in roughly 1 in 6,000 babies who don't receive supplementation, it can be devastating when it happens.We dive deep into the questions parents really struggle with: If babies are born with low vitamin K, isn't that natural? What about ingredients like polysorbate 80? Doesn't breast milk provide everything babies need? Could oral vitamin K work instead? Will the shot disrupt those precious first bonding moments? Each concern is addressed with current research, practical experience, and an understanding that these questions come from a place of love and protection.Beyond just facts and figures, we explore the emotional and spiritual dimensions of this decision. For families wondering if interventions contradict their faith in God's design, we consider how human babies are uniquely dependent creatures—perfect but not complete—and how scientific advancements might be viewed as extensions of divine care rather than contradictions.The episode wraps with a practical decision-making framework called the BRAIN model (Benefits, Risks, Alternatives, Intuition, and what happens if you do Nothing), helping you sort through your options with clarity rather than fear. Whether you choose the shot, explore alternatives with medical guidance, or decide on another pa Join the Bump & Beyond Online Community for moms & moms-to-be! Coaching offerKelly Hof: Labor Nurse + Birth CoachBasically, I'm your birth bestie! With me as your coach, you will tell fear to take a hike!Support the showConnect with Kelly at kellyhof.com Join the Bump & Beyond Online Community!https://www.facebook.com/groups/bumpnbeyondGrab The Book of Hormones on Amazon!Medical Disclaimer:This podcast is intended as a safe space for women to share their birth experiences. It is not intended to provide medical advice. Each woman's medical course of action is individual and may not appropriately transfer to another similar situation. Please speak to your medical provider before making any medical decisions. Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that evidence based practice evolves as our knowledge of science improves. To the best of my ability I will attempt to present the most current ACOG and AWHONN recommendations at the time the podcast is recorded, but that may not necessarily reflect the best practices at the time the podcast is heard. Additionally, guests sharing their stories have the right to autonomy in their medical decisions, and may share their choice to go against current practice recommendations. I intend to hold space for people to share their decisions. I will attempt to share the current recommendations so that my audience is informed, but it is up to each individual to choose what is best for them.

We're now on the brink of what could be the biggest shake-up to the Australian tax system since the GST was introduced back in 2000. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that tax reform is not just on the agenda - it's a priority. But what kind of reform are we really talking about here? If you dig beneath the headlines, this isn't just about closing loopholes, it's about reshaping how wealth is taxed and redistributed in a very different economic and demographic Australia. Whether you're a business owner, property investor, or self-funded retiree, you may be directly in the firing line. And while Chalmers says this isn't about a ‘tax grab', many of us know that when Canberra talks about ‘fairness,' it often means someone else is footing a larger bill. So today, Ken Raiss, Director of Metropole Wealth Advisory, and I discuss what's being proposed, what the real motives might be, and how you can future-proof your wealth and estate plans amid the uncertainty.”   Takeaways  ·         Debt burden is driving government tax reform discussions. ·         Australia's gross debt is projected to exceed 100% in five years. ·         Government spending is increasing significantly, impacting taxpayers. ·         Tax reforms may target wealth rather than income. ·         Family trusts could face changes that affect small business owners. ·         Intergenerational wealth planning tools may be eroded by new taxes. ·         Financial health checks are essential for optimizing wealth structures. ·         Proactive planning is crucial in anticipation of tax changes. ·         The government is exploring new revenue sources to manage debt. ·         Economic policies may shift towards taxing wealth rather than work.   Chapters  00:00 Understanding Tax Reform Priorities 04:29 The Debt Tsunami and Its Implications 09:17 Exploring Tax Strategies and Alternatives 12:10 The Future of Family Trusts and Wealth Distribution 14:45 Taxing Wealth vs. Taxing Work 16:57 Government Pressures and Potential Changes 19:35 Proactive Tax Planning Strategies 22:14 The Importance of Financial Health Checks 24:37 Looking Ahead: The Future of Taxation in Australia   Links and Resources:   Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole Wealth Advisory create a Strategic Wealth plan for your needs Click here and have a chat with us    Ken Raiss, Director of Metropole Wealth Advisory   Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at www.PodcastBonus.com.au   Also, please subscribe to my other podcast, Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. Or click here: https://demographicsdecoded.com.au/

Imagine a situation where nearly four cents of every dollar you earn is taken away, charged as a tax, yet contributes nothing. As a citizen, this charge provides no services, no schools, no national defense, no social services; in the words of economist Lacy Hunt, it is simply a "dead weight loss."

Imagine a situation where nearly four cents of every dollar you earn is taken away, charged as a tax, yet contributes nothing. As a citizen, this charge provides no services, no schools, no national defense, no social services; in the words of economist Lacy Hunt, it is simply a "dead weight loss."

Imagine a situation where nearly four cents of every dollar you earn is taken away, charged as a tax, yet contributes nothing. As a citizen, this charge provides no services, no schools, no national defense, no social services; in the words of economist Lacy Hunt, it is simply a "dead weight loss."

One of most prolific, gifted, kind hearted, and gentle people you'll ever meet - oh and she has an angelic voice, May Erlewine joined me at Grove Studios to talk about her career and newest album 'What It Takes.' I've been wanting to put her in the spotlight pretty much since I started doing the podcast back in 2020. I feel like there is more we could have done to show the uninitiated the wonderful world of May, but I hope this glimpse gives you the spark to explore more.Songs written by May Erlewine:My SpeedDown To ThisLove and DesireNothing But LoveFind out more about May Erlewine:https://www.mayerlewine.com/Find out more about Acoustic Alternativeshttps://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesGrove Studios deserves and award. Find more about them here:https://grovestudios.space/

La croissance mondiale pourrait être, cette année, au plus bas depuis la crise financière de 2008. La Banque mondiale a récemment revu à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance pour une large partie du globe. En cause, notamment : les droits de douane envisagés par le président américain. Ils devraient définitivement entrer en vigueur au 1er août 2025, selon Donald Trump, pour les pays qui n'ont pas conclu d'accord avec Washington. Autant dire qu'il reste peu de temps pour s'adapter à une politique américaine qui rebat les cartes, et qui perturbe un système économique déjà bien fragile. Serait-ce, d'ailleurs, le dernier coup porté à l'hypermondialisation des 20 ou 30 dernières années ? L'ordre économique mondial est-il en train de se transformer sous nos yeux et, si oui, comment ? Qui pourrait en sortir gagnant ?   Invités :  - Guillaume Duval, ancien rédacteur en chef du magazine Alternatives économiques, conseiller auprès de l'Institut Jacques Delors  - Vincent Vicard, économiste, responsable du programme Analyse du commerce international au CEPII (Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales).

Imagine a situation where nearly four cents of every dollar you earn is taken away, charged as a tax, yet contributes nothing. As a citizen, this charge provides no services, no schools, no national defense, no social services; in the words of economist Lacy Hunt, it is simply a "dead weight loss."

As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

With the rising cost of some dairy products cheesing more than a few shoppers off non dairy alternatives are closing the price gap. The Vegan Chesse awards are being held in Auckland this month, with six judges, chosing winners in twelve categories. The panel will be nibbling their way through plant based cheeses in categories from the humble cheddar to brie, camembert, blue and feta. Vegan Society spokesperson Claire Insley spoke to Lisa Owen.

The ultimate market outcomes of President Trump's tactical tariff escalation may be months away. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas takes a look at implications for investors now.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today: The latest on U.S. tariffs and their market impact. It's Thursday, July 10th at 12:30pm in New York. It's been a newsy week for U.S. trade policy, with tariff increases announced across many nations. Here's what we think investors need to know. First, we think the U.S. is in a period of tactical escalation for tariff policy; where tariffs rise as the U.S. explores its negotiating space, but levels remain in a range below what many investors feared earlier this year. We started this week expecting a slight increase in U.S. tariffs—nothing too dramatic, maybe from 13 percent to around 15 percent driven by hikes in places like Vietnam and Japan. But what we got was a bit more substantial. The U.S. announced several tariff hikes, set to take effect later, allowing time for negotiations. If these new measures go through, tariffs could reach 15 to 20 percent, significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, though far below the 25 to 30 percent levels that appeared possible back in April. It's a good reminder that U.S. trade policy remains a moving target because the U.S. administration is still focused on reducing goods trade deficits and may not yet perceive there to be substantial political and economic risk of tariff escalation. Per our economists' recent work on the lagged effects of tariffs, this reckoning could be months away. Second, the implications of this tactical escalation are consistent with our current cross-asset views. The higher tariffs announced on a variety of geographies, and products like copper, put further pressure on the U.S. growth story, even if they don't tip the U.S. into recession, per the work done by our economists. That growth pressure is consistent with our views that both government and corporate bond yields will move lower, driving solid returns. It's also insufficient pressure to get in the way of an equity market rally, in the view of our U.S. equity strategy team. The fiscal package that just passed Congress might not be a major boon to the economy overall, but it does help margins for large cap companies, who by the way are more exposed to tariffs through China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU – rather than the countries on whom tariff increases were announced this week. Finally, How could we be wrong? Well, pay attention to negotiations with those geographies we just mentioned: Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China. These are much bigger trading partners not just for U.S. companies, but the U.S. overall. So meaningful escalation here can drive both top line and bottom line effects that could challenge equities and credit. In our view, tariffs with these partners are likely to land near current levels, but the path to get there could be volatile. For the U.S., Mexico and Canada, background reporting suggests there's mutual interest in maintaining a low tariff bloc, including exceptions for the product-specific tariffs that the U.S. is imposing. But there are sticking points around harmonizing trade policy. The dynamic is similar with China. Tariffs are already steep—among the highest anywhere. While a recent narrow deal—around semiconductors for rare earths—led to a temporary reduction from triple-digit levels, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental issues. So when it comes to negotiations with the U.S.' biggest trading partners, there's sticking points. And where there's sticking points there's potential for escalation that we'll need to be vigilant in monitoring. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market please leave us a review. And tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

In this episode, we talk about Practice Statement 36 https://code.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/tp/ps/ps-36.html which has recently been published by the UK Takeover Panel on unlisted share alternatives. Topics we discuss include: - what terms for an unlisted share alternative are acceptable, and what is not acceptable; - what rights can be attached to the shares; and - the disclosure required.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses whether demand for U.S. stocks has fallen and where fund flows are surging. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.Today – is the demand for U.S. assets declining? Let's look at the recent trends in global investment flows.It's Wednesday, July 9th at 1pm in New York.The U.S. equity market has reached an all-time high, but at the same time lingering uncertainty about U.S. trade and tariff policies is forcing global investors to consider the riskiness of U.S. assets. And so the big question we need to ask is: are investors – particularly foreign investors – fleeing U.S. assets?This question comes from recent data around fund flows to global equities. And we have to acknowledge that demand for U.S. stocks overall has declined, going by high-frequency data. But at the same time, we think this idea is exaggerated. So why is that? As many listeners know, fund flows – which represent the net movement of money into and out of various investment vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs – are an important gauge of investor sentiment and market trends. So what are fund flows really telling us about investors' sentiment towards U.S. equities? It would be nice to get an unequivocal answer, but of course, the devil is always in the details. And the problem is that different data sources and frequencies across different market segments don't always lead to the same conclusions. Weekly data across global equity ETF and mutual funds from Lipper show that international investors were net buyers through most of April and May. But the pace of buying has slowed year-to-date versus 2024. Still, it remains much higher than during the same period in 2021 through 2023. Treasury TIC data point to something similar – a slowdown in foreign demand, but not significant net selling. So where are the flows going, if not to the U.S.? They are going to the rest of the world, but more particularly, Europe. Europe stocks, in fact, have been the biggest beneficiary of decreasing flows to the U.S. Nearly $37 billion U.S. has gone into Europe-focused equity funds year-to-date. This is significantly higher than the run-rates over the prior five years. What's more notable here is that year-to-date, flows to European-focused ETFs and mutual funds dominated those targeting Japan and Emerging Markets. This suggests that Europe is now the premier destination for equity fund flows, with very little demand spillovers to other regions' equity markets.These shifts have yet to show up in the allocation data, which tracks how global asset managers invest in stocks regionally. Global equity funds' portfolio weights to Rest-of-the-World has gone up by roughly the same amount as allocation to the U.S. has come down. But allocation to the U.S. has actually gone down by roughly the same amount, as its share in global equity indices; which means that If allocation to the U.S. has changed, it's simply because the U.S. is now a smaller part of equity indices. Meanwhile, an estimated U.S.$9 billion from Rest-of-the World went into international equity funds, which excludes U.S. stocks altogether. Granted, it's not a lot; but scaled for fund assets, it's the highest net flows international equities have seen. In other words, some investors are choosing to invest in equities excluding U.S. altogether. These trends are unlikely to reverse as long as lingering policy uncertainty dampens demand for U.S.-based assets. But as we've argued in our mid-year outlook, there are very few alternative markets to the U.S. dollar markets right now. U.S. stocks might start to see less marginal flows from foreign investors – to the benefit of Rest-of-the-World equities, especially Europe. But demand is unlikely to dry up completely over the next 12 months. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The Seed Oil Controversy: Unpacking Health Risks and Alternatives with Jonathan Rubin, CEO of the Seed Oil Free Alliance. The discussion focuses on the potential health hazards posed by seed oils, which have become ubiquitous in the American diet. They explore how these oils may be linked to chronic disease and obesity and compare this with the mainstream view that considers them harmless. Jonathan shares insights from his personal health journey and explains the mission and methodology of the Seed Oil Free Alliance, which aims to provide consumers with reliable information and certification for seed oil-free products. The episode also covers the historical context of seed oil consumption, the science behind omega-6 fatty acids, and practical alternatives for a healthier diet.

Think that glass of wine is helping you relax and drift off? Think again. Your favorite nightcap may actually be sabotaging your sleep and fueling your menopausal symptomsIn this episode, we're unpacking the science behind alcohol's impact on sleep and menopause, explaining how it can intensify hot flashes, brain fog, and belly fat. You'll also discover empowering alternatives to support your energy, reclaim your sleep and protect your long-term brain health.What to Listen For:[00:01:00] Why your evening glass of wine might be making your hot flashes and belly fat worse[00:02:00] How alcohol disrupts your brain's ability to detox and repair overnight[00:04:00] Why women are more vulnerable to alcohol's effects, especially during menopause[00:07:00] The science behind how your liver processes alcohol — and why this matters more as we age[00:09:00] How hormonal changes make alcohol hit harder (and linger longer) in your system[00:12:00] The genetic differences that affect how we metabolize alcohol — and why you might flush red[00:14:00] The ways alcohol worsens menopause symptoms like night sweats and brain fog[00:17:00] The vicious cycle of alcohol, dehydration, and increased cravings[00:18:00] Key questions to help you explore your true needs beyond that glass of wine[00:22:00] Alternatives and strategies to find comfort, calm, and connection without alcoholIn this episode, we explore how alcohol, sleep, and menopause create a perfect storm for your health and what you can do to break the cycle. This isn't about guilt or deprivation — it's about empowerment and creating habits that support your brain and body as you age. If you're ready to make some changes, book a free mini-coaching session!Subscribe & Review in iTunesIf you like what you hear, please subscribe to my podcast.  I encourage you to do that today as I don't want you to miss an episode.  Click here to subscribe on iTunes!Now if you're feeling extra loving, I would be really grateful if you left me a review over on iTunes, too. Those reviews help other people find my podcast and they're also fun for me to go in and read. Just click here to review, select “Ratings and Reviews” and “Write a Review” and let me know what your favorite part of the podcast is.RESOURCES: Register for the FREE Masterclass: 5 Keys to Protecting Your Brain Health Book a FREE Discovery Call with Amy Lang Order Amy's book Thoughts Are Habits Too: Master Your Triggers, Free Yourself From Diet Culture, and Rediscover Joyful Eating. Follow Amy on Instagram @habitwhisperer

Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Strategy team and Aerospace & Defense Analyst Ross Law unpack what a reshaped defense industry means for sustainability, ethics and long-term investment strategy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ross Law: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ross Law from Morgan Stanley's European Aerospace and Defense team.Arushi Agarwal: And I'm Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Research Team.Ross Law: Today, a topic that's rapidly defining the boundaries of sustainable investing and technological leadership – the use of AI in defense.It's Tuesday, July 8th at 3pm in London. At the recent NATO summit, member countries decided to boost their core defense spending target from 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This big jump is sure to spark a wave of innovation in defense, particularly in AI and military technology. It's clear that Europe is focusing on rearmament with AI playing a major role. In fact, AI is revolutionizing everything from unmanned systems and cyber defense to simulation training and precision targeting. It's changing the game for how nations prepare for – and engage in – conflict. And with all these changes come serious challenges. Investors, policy makers and technologists are facing some tough questions that sit at the intersection of two of Morgan Stanley's four key themes: The Multipolar World and Tech Diffusion.So, Arushi, to set the stage, how is the concept of sustainability evolving to include national security and defense, particularly in Europe?Arushi Agarwal: You know, Ross, it's fascinating to see how much this space has evolved over the past year. Geopolitical tensions have really pushed national security much higher on the sustainability agenda. We're seeing a structural shift in sentiment towards defense investments. While historically defense companies were largely excluded by sustainability funds, we're now seeing asset managers revisiting these exclusions, especially around conventional and nuclear weapons. Some are even launching thematic funds, specifically focused on security and resilience.However, in the absence of standard methodologies to assess weapon related exposures, evaluate sector-specific ESG risks and determine transparency, there is no clear consensus on what sustainability focused managers can hold. Greater policy focus has created the need to identify a long-term approach to investing in this sector, one that is cognizant of ethical issues. Investors are now increasingly asking whether rapid technological integration might allow for a more forward-looking, risk aware approach to investing in national security.Ross Law: So, it's no news that Europe has historically underspent on defense. Now, the spending goal is moving to 3.5 percent of GDP to try and catch up. Our estimates suggest this could mean an additional $200 billion per year in additional spend – with a focus on equipment over personnel, at least for the time being. With this new focus, how is AI shaping the European rearmament strategy?Arushi Agarwal: Well, AI appears to be at the core of EU's 800 billion euro rearmament plan. The commission has been quite clear that escalating tensions have not only led to a new arms race but also provoked a global technological race. Now to think about it, AI, quantum, biotech, robotics, and hypersonic are key inputs not only for long-term economic growth, but also for military pre-eminence.In our base case, we estimate that total NATO military spend into AI applications will potentially more than double to $112 billion by 2030. This is at a 4 percent AI investment allocation rate. If this allocation rate increases to 10 percent as anticipated by European deep tech firms, then NATOs AI military spend could grow sixfold to $306 billion by 2030 in our bull case.So, Ross, you were at the Paris Air Show recently where companies demonstrated their latest product capabilities. Which AI applications are leading the way in defense right now? Ross Law: Yeah, it was really quite eye-opening. We've identified nine key AI applications, reshaping defense, and our Application Readiness Radar shows that Cybersecurity followed by Unmanned Systems exhibit the highest level of preparedness from a public and private investment perspective.Cybersecurity is a major priority due to increased proliferation of cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, and this technology can be used for both defensive and offensive measures. Unmanned systems are also really taking off, no pun intended, mainly driven by the rise in drone warfare that's reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine.At the Paris Airshow, we saw demonstrations of “Wingman” crewed and uncrewed aircraft. There have also been several public and private partnerships in this area within our coverage. Another area gaining traction is simulation and war gaming. As defense spending increases and potentially leads to more military personnel, we see this theme in high demand in the coming years.Arushi Agarwal: And how are European Aerospace and Defense companies positioning themselves in terms of AI readiness?Ross Law: Well, they're really making significant advancements. We've assessed AI technology readiness for our A&D companies across six different verticals: the number of applications; dual-use capabilities; AI pricing power; responsible AI policy; and partnerships on both external and internal product categories.What's really interesting is that European A&D companies have higher pricing power relative to the U.S. counterparts, and a higher percentage are both enablers and adopters of AI. To accelerate AI integration, these companies are increasingly partnering with government research arms, leading software firms, as well as peers and private players.Arushi Agarwal: And some of these same technologies can also be used for civilian purposes. Could you share some examples with us?Ross Law: The dual use potential is really significant. Various companies in our coverage are using their AI capabilities for civilian applications across multiple domains. For example, geospatial capabilities can also be used for wildfire management and tracking deforestation. Machine learning can be used for maritime shipping and port surveillance. But switching gears slightly, if we talk about the regulatory developments that are emerging in Europe to address defense modernization, what does this mean, Arushi, for society, the industry and investors?Arushi Agarwal: There's quite a lot happening on the regulatory front. The European Commission is working on a defense omnibus simplification proposal aimed at speeding up defense investments in the EU. It's planning to publish a guidance notice on how defense investment will fit within the sustainable finance framework. It's also making changes to its sustainability reporting directive. If warranted, the commission will make additional adjustments to reflect the needs of the defense industry in its sustainability reporting obligations. The Sustainable Fund Reform is another important development. While the sustainability fund regulation doesn't prohibit investment into the defense sector, the commission is seeking to provide clarification on how defense investment goals sit within a sustainability framework.Additionally at the European Security Summit in June, the European Defense Commissioner indicated that a roadmap focusing on the modernization of European defense will be published in autumn. This will have a special focus on AI and quantum technologies. For investors, whilst exclusions easing has started to take place, pickup in individual positioning has been slow. As investors ramp up on the sector, we believe these regulatory developments can serve as catalysts, providing clear demand and trend signals for the sector.Ross Law: So finally, in this context, how can companies and investors navigate these ethical considerations responsibly?Arushi Agarwal: So, in the note we highlight that AI risk management requires the ability to tackle two types of challenges. First, technical challenges, which can be mitigated by embedding boundaries and success criteria directly into the design of the AI model. For example, training AI systems to refuse harmful requests. Second challenges are more open-ended and ambiguous set of challenges that relate to coordinating non-proliferation among countries and preventing misuse by bad actors. This set of challenges requires continuous interstate dialogue and cooperation rather than purely technical fixes.From an investor perspective, closer corporate engagement will be key to navigating these debates. Ensuring firms have clear documentation of their algorithms and decision-making processes, human in the loop systems, transparency around data sets used to train the AI models are some of the engagement points we mention in our note.Ultimately, I think the key is balance. On the one hand, we have to recognize the legitimate security needs that defense technologies address. And on the other hand, there's the need to ensure appropriate safeguards and oversight.Ross Law: Arushi, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arushi Agarwal: It was great speaking with you, Ross,Ross Law: And thank you all for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Think negotiation is just for boardrooms and big business deals? Think again.  Negotiation is everywhere, whether you're asking for a raise, buying a car, or convincing your kids to brush their teeth. And if you're doing it without empathy, you're leaving results (and relationships) on the table. Today's guest is Andres Lares, Managing Partner at the Shapiro Negotiations Institute. He's helped close multi-million dollar contracts – including a $184M MLB deal – and now trains leaders at Fortune 500 companies, pro sports teams, and global organizations on how to influence with intention. He's also the author of Persuade: The 4-Step Process to Influence People and Decisions. Negotiating with Emotional Intelligence Forget bluffing and bravado. Andres explains why emotional intelligence is the real power play in any negotiation – whether you're leading a team, buying a business, or parenting toddlers. You'll learn how to read the room, ask better questions, and use empathy to get what you want without damaging relationships. If you've ever felt like your message isn't landing, this conversation's for you. The 3P and PAID Frameworks You Can Use Right Now Most people wing the negotiation phase and wonder why their deals fall through. Andres shares two simple, repeatable frameworks you can plug into any negotiation today: 3P (Prepare, Probe, Propose) and PAID (Precedents, Alternatives, Interests, Deadlines). These tools help you think clearly, ask the right questions, and walk into every conversation with a strategy that puts you in control. Whether you're making your next hire or negotiating a partnership, this is your blueprint. Enjoy this episode with Andres Lares… Soundbytes 07:46 - 07:55 “So we're no longer teaching how important relationships are. We're just giving the methodology and skills in order to be able to balance the relationship building with the results.” 10:38 - 10:50 “You'll notice, for example, the other person talks much slower, or has a lot of questions early on, or is always asking for information in advance. Well, you start to pick up on those cues, and you start to realize, okay, this meeting's gonna be more effective if I send it in advance.” 17:00 - 17:10 “So if you don't think you're worth $75,000, you're probably not going to be able to make that ask from a salary perspective in a very convincing way, because you don't even believe it.” Quotes “Think about every scenario. You negotiate. You negotiate with your kids, you're negotiating salary.” “The phrase we always talk about is maximizing your objectives while satisfying the other side.” “There's a relationship component, and an emotional intelligence component, which really has to be at the forefront.” “I've never actually applied for a job I've got. It's been relationships in my network.” “People make decisions emotionally, and then they justify rationally.” Links mentioned in this episode: From Our Guest Website: https://www.shapironegotiations.com/  Connect with Andres Lares on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andreslares/  Connect with brandiD Download our free guide to learn 16 crucial website updates that attract more leads and convert visitors into clients: https://thebrandid.com/website-tweaks/ Ready to elevate your digital presence with a powerful brand or website?  Contact us here: https://thebrandid.com/contact-form/

If you're hearing the call to ditch the coffee habit, or simply looking for alternative options to replace the ritual or reduce your current coffee consumption then this episode is for you. We dive into energizing and healthy alternatives to your usual caffeine fix. From matcha to mushroom blends, and adaptogenic teas to cacao and decaf, we break down what works, what tastes great, and what gives you a steady boost without the crash. Plus, we share our favorite brands! SEND US A QUESTIONS:https://www.speakpipe.com/theholistichealthpodcastFIND NAT BELOW:Website - https://nataliekdouglas.com/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/natalie.k.douglasBook a Free Assessment Call - https://NatalieKDouglas.as.me/?appointmentType=50255874EndoNourish - Endometriosis and Adenomyosis Guide - https://nataliekdouglas.com/endonourish-holistic-endometriosis-adenomyoisis-care-guide/SacredSeeds - Preconception Care Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/preconception-care-guide/PCOS Wellness Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/pcos-holistic-guide/Thyroid Rescue - Self guided programhttps://nataliekdouglas.com/thyroid-rescue/Coming Off The Pill/IUD Holistic Guidehttps://nataliekdouglas.com/coming-off-the-pill-mini-course/PMS & PMDD Natural Solutions Masterclass:https://nataliekdouglas.com/pms-pmdd-natural-solutions-masterclass/Become a one-to-one clienthttps://nataliekdouglas.com/1-1-naturopathic-nutrition-consultations/FIND AMIE BELOW:Website - https://whatthenaturopathsaid.comInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/thatnaturopathBook a Free Discovery Call: https://p.bttr.to/3yBdmu3Book Yourself In: https://l.bttr.to/ZDxWOFree eBook 'Is mould making you sick?' - https://www.amieskilton.com/MPYHeBookFree webinar 'The 9 subtle signs your home has a mould problem' - https://www.amieskilton.com/MPYHwebinarMouldProof Your Home eCourse - https://www.amieskilton.com/mouldproofMould Prevention 101 mini-course - https://p.bttr.to/3Cp5DkB   

The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition between great powers. Government leaders are increasingly focused on solidifying economic security through trade leverage, tariffs, sanctions and other measures. As a result, potential new investment risks and opportunities are emerging. This episode of The Outthinking Investor discusses how investors can measure their portfolio's exposure to geoeconomic shifts, which economies and sectors could benefit amid a realignment in supply chains, whether the US dollar can maintain its global dominance, and investment strategies that could potentially mitigate risk and capitalize on new opportunities. Our guests are: Matteo Maggiori, finance professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business Joseph Nye, political scientist and former Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst at PGIM Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Coming into last week's U.S. jobs print, analyst expectations were all over the place. Another sign that although perhaps past peak uncertainty, markets and expectations are volatile. New ways to provide ballast in one's portfolio are worth considering to help steady the release of both data and policy shifts across the board, and to help you take a much longer view. On the show today to discuss Fidelity's alternative investments - both liquid and less liquid - is Director of Alternatives, Rory Poole. Recorded on July 3, 2025. At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For a fourth year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2024 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study.

The American consumer isn't simply pulling back. They are changing the way they spend – and save. Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver digs into the data. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, the U.S. consumer. What's changing about the ways Americans spend, save and feel about the future?It's Monday, July 7th at 10am in London.As markets digest mixed signals – whether that's easing inflation, changing politics, and persistent noise around tariffs – U.S. consumers are recalibrating. Under the surface of headline numbers, a more complex story is unfolding about the ways Americans are not just reacting but adapting to macro challenges.First, I want to start with a big picture. Data from our latest consumer survey shows that consumer sentiment has stabilized, even as uncertainty around tariffs persists, especially into these rolling July deadlines. Inflation remains the top concern for most. But the good news is that it's trending lower. This month more than half of respondents cited inflation as their primary concern, a slight decrease from last month and a year ago. Now, that's a subtle but a meaningful decline suggesting consumers may be adjusting their expectations rather than bracing for continued price shocks. At the same time though political concerns are on the rise. More than 40 percent of consumers now list the U.S. political environment as a major worry. That's slightly up from last month; and not surprisingly concern around geopolitical conflicts has also jumped from a month ago.Now, when we break this down by income levels, we see some interesting trends. Inflation is the top concern across all income groups, except for those earning more than $150,000. For them, politics takes the top spot. Lower income households, though, are more focused on paying rent and debts, while higher income groups are more concerned about their investments.As for tariffs, concern remains high but stable. About 40 percent of consumers are very worried about tariffs and another 25 percent are moderately so. But if we look under the surface, it's really showing us a political divide. 63 percent of liberals are very concerned, compared to just 23 percent of conservatives who say they're very concerned.Despite these worries, though, fewer people overall are planning to cut back on spending. Only about a third say they'll spend less due to tariffs, which is down quite a bit from earlier this year. Meanwhile, about a quarter plan to spend more, and roughly a third don't expect to change their plans at all.This resilience points to the notable behavioral trend I mentioned at the start. Consumers are not just reacting, they're adapting. Looking at the broader economy, consumer confidence is holding steady according to our survey, although it's slightly down from last month. But when it comes to household finances, the outlook is more positive with a significant number expecting their finances to improve and fewer expecting them to worsen – a net positive.Savings are also showing some resilience. The average consumer has several months of savings, slightly up from last year. Spending intentions are stable with nearly a third of consumers planning to spend more next month while fewer planned to spend less. And when it comes to big ticket items, more than half of U.S. consumers are planning a major purchase in the next three months, including vehicles, appliances, and vacations.Speaking of vacations, summer travel season is here and I'm looking forward to taking a trip soon. Around 60 percent of consumers are planning to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the top reason.So, what's the biggest takeaway for investors?Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, politics and tariffs, U.S. consumers are showing remarkable resilience. It's a nuanced picture, but one that overall suggests stability in the face of uncertainty.Thanks for listening. I hope you enjoyed the show, and if you did, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Inspired by the power of fasting to enhance lifespan, co-founder Dr. Chris Rhodes spent years researching the human body's response to a 36 hour fast and how it could unlock our built-in longevity bio-programs.In 2022, the first ever prototypes of Mimio were made, third party certified, and clinically validated to recreate the effects of fasting, even during a meal.Just this past year, Mimio launched its' Daily Biomimetic Cell Care, helping people across the country harness the transformative power of their own biology to enhance their healthspan and live at their peak.SHOW NOTES:0:39 Welcome to the podcast!2:45 About Dr. Chris Rhodes'3:31 Welcome him to the show!4:24 What is a biomimetic?6:29 Benefits of fasting for health10:29 Who is Mimio for?12:19 How to access food freedom!14:14 Nutrient-repair signals15:32 Getting out of “metabolic chaos”16:25 Alternate-day fasting19:12 Fasting with Mimio vs not fasting22:03 Ingredients in Mimio28:05 Reducing biological age with Mimio30:25 *ALIGN MAT*32:15 New Study 35:08 Alternatives to GLP-1s42:45 Chris personal testing experiments44:10 Observing glucose when fasting45:54 AI & Insights from Function Health50:44 New bio-mimetics coming soon!56:41 His final piece of advice58:04 Where to find Dr. Chris & Mimio58:47 Thanks for tuning in!RESOURCES:Website: MimioHealth.comIG: @mimiohealthAlign Mat - code: biohackerbabes to save $250 Our Sponsors:* Check out Puori: https://Puori.com/BIOHACKERBABESSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/biohacker-babes-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Lorraine & Trish meet midlife women's health expert and Davina McCall's favourite menopause doctor, GP Naomi Potter, to ask all the questions you want answered about the new weight loss drugs, including how to get them, potential side effects, how long to stay on them and what to do to avoid weight rebound. Dr Potter, who co-authored Davina's No 1 best selling book, also explains how to take them safely when on HRT as well as the nutrition and lifestyle alternatives that can trigger the same hormone and metabolic effects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mary Stone shares a humorous story about a neighbor's beaver and woodchuck dilemmas, the differences between the two, and their respective remedies. She then addresses the issue of invasive barberry, suggesting alternatives, emphasizing the importance of native plants, and striking a balance with ornamental plants. Mary wraps up with a reflection on the Fourth of July, encouraging listeners to relish and not take for granted our freedom or the magnificence of nature. And to do our part to propagate peace and harmony in our communities.Thanks for tuning in! Related Podcasts and Posts You'll Enjoy: Ep 142. Berries for Winter Beauty and Wildlife Berries for Winter Beauty and Wildlife - Blog Post8888 I'd love to hear your stories about your garden and nature, as well as your thoughts on topics for future podcast episodes. You can email me at AskMaryStone@gmail.com. You can follow Garden Dilemmas on Facebook and Instagram #MaryElaineStone. Episode web page —Garden Dilemmas Podcast Page Thank you for sharing the Garden of Life, Mary Stone, Columnist & Garden Designer                                         AskMaryStone.comMore about the Podcast and Column: Welcome to Garden Dilemmas, Delights, and Discoveries. It's not only about gardens; it's about nature's inspirations, about grasping the glories of the world around us, gathering what we learned from mother nature, and carrying these lessons into our garden of life. So, let's jump in in the spirit of learning from each other. We have lots to talk about. Thanks for tuning in, Mary Stone Garden Dilemmas? AskMaryStone.comDirect Link to Podcast Page

Welcome to the DMF! I'm Justin Younts, and today we're diving into how actors can find their ideal connections in the industry. It's crucial to surround yourself with the right people, especially in a field where negativity can easily creep in. Many actors find themselves in a cycle of complaining about their circumstances, which can be detrimental to their careers. I share a hilarious yet eye-opening story about two actresses who were unaware that the executive producer of the show they were auditioning for was sitting right next to them while they grumbled about the series. This serves as a reminder that you never know who might be listening, and maintaining a positive attitude is key. Instead of getting caught up in the negativity, I encourage actors to seek out diverse opportunities—like theater groups, film festivals, and workshops—to meet a variety of people and expand their network. It's all about building connections that can lead to future opportunities. I also touch on the importance of continuous learning and practice, just like athletes and musicians do. Remember, if you don't use it, you lose it! So, let's keep honing our craft and stay ready for when the industry opens back up. Join me as we explore these strategies and more to elevate your acting career!00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:06 - The Importance of Networking and Attitude in the Acting Industry00:03:11 - Alternatives to Traditional Acting Groups and Workshops00:03:45 - Discussion on the Book's Structure and Themes00:04:32 - Understanding the Five Factor Model of Personality00:06:33 - The Dark Triad and Its Implications00:07:30 - The Issue of Procrastination Among Actors00:08:14 - The Importance of Regular Practice and Training00:10:01 - The Role of Agreeableness and Coachability in Acting00:11:47 - Conclusion and Call to Action

Text us a pool question!Pentair just dropped a bombshell on pool pros: effective immediately through August 31, 2025, they're capping purchase orders at 30% above your July–August 2024 levels. Anything above that? Denied.Pentair caps your buying power. The EPA quietly bans sodium bromide. And bonding? Finally, some clarity.In this episode, we tackle three major updates shaking the pool industry. First, Pentair announces a sudden cap on purchase orders—effective immediately, you're limited to just 30% above your July–August 2024 volume. We unpack why tariffs are likely behind it and what this could mean for your inventory, pricing, and timelines.Next, we break down the Pool Industry Council's landmark study on equipotential bonding. Conducted by SunSmart Engineering, the research confirms that both #8 AWG single wire loops and copper bonding grids reduce 120 VAC fault current to safe levels when installed correctly. This could finally settle the perimeter bonding debate with hard data.Finally, Rudy Stankowitz exposes the silent EPA regulation that outlawed the outdoor use of sodium bromide. No headlines, no warning—just a quiet shift that leaves pool pros carrying the burden. We discuss bromate risks, industry backlash, and what comes next.This episode is your no-fluff survival guide to navigating shifting rules, shrinking supplies, and the science that still keeps your pools safe.Sodium bromide was quietly outlawed for outdoor use.The burden of compliance shifted unexpectedly to pool professionals.Regulatory decisions were made without consulting industry experts.The label change for sodium bromide has significant implications for pool care.Bromate, a byproduct of sodium bromide, poses health risks.The EPA's decision was based on precautionary principles due to insufficient data.Pool professionals need to educate clients about these changes.Alternatives to sodium bromide may come with higher costs and longer treatment times.Industry voices must unite to advocate for fair regulations.Future studies may provide data to challenge the current ban on sodium bromide.Sound Bites"It was bureaucracy doing what it does best.""The human cost of silent regulation.""You were never considered in this decision."Chapters00:00The Silent Regulation of Sodium Bromide01:36Silver Algaecide: Treatment for Black Algae02:00Blu-ray Algaecide: How It Works Support the showThank you so much for listening! You can find us on social media: Facebook Instagram Tik Tok Email us: talkingpools@gmail.com

They creak, they crunch, they catch. But mostly they hurt. Every year, about 800,000…

For a special Independence Day episode, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers a popular topic of debate, on holidays or otherwise – national debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today on a special Independence Day episode of the podcast, we're going to talk a bit about the history of U.S. debt and the contrast between corporate and federal debt trajectories.It's Thursday, July 3rd at 9am in Seattle.The 4th of July, which represents the U.S. declaring independence from Great Britain, remains one of my favorite holidays. A time to gather with friends and family and celebrate what America is – and what it can still be.It is also, of course, a good excuse to talk about debt.Declaring independence is one thing, but fighting and beating the largest empire in the world at the time would take more than poetic words. The borrowing that made victory possible for the colonies also almost brought them down in the 1780s under a pile of unsustainable debt. It was a young treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton, who successfully lobbied to bring these debts under a federal umbrella – binding the nation together and securing a lower borrowing cost. As we'd say, it's a real fixed income win-win.Almost 250 years later, the benefits of that foresight are still going strong, with the United States of America enjoying the world's largest economy, and the largest and most liquid equity and bond markets. Yet lately there's been more focus on whether those bond markets are, well, too large.The U.S. currently runs a budget deficit of about 7 percent of GDP, and the current budget proposals in the house and the Senate could drive an additional 4 trillion of borrowing over the next decade above that already hefty baseline. Forecast even further out, well, they look even more challenging.We are not worried about the U.S. government's ability to pay its bills. And to be clear, in the near term, we are forecasting at Morgan Stanley, U.S. government yields to go down as growth slows and the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected in 2026. But all of this borrowing and all the uncertainty around it – it should increase risk premiums for longer term bonds and drive a steeper yield curve.So, it's notable then – as we celebrate America's birthday and discuss its borrowing – that it's really companies that are currently unwrapping the presents. Corporate balance sheets, in contrast, are in very good shape, as corporate borrowing trends have diverged from those of the government.Many factors are behind this. Corporate profitability is strong. Companies use the post-COVID period to refinance debt at attractive rates. And the ongoing uncertainty – well, it's kept management more conservative than they would otherwise be. Out of deference to the 4th of July, I've focused so far on the United States. But we see the same trend in Europe, where more conservative balance sheet trends and less relative issuance to governments is showing up on a year-over-year basis. With companies borrowing relatively less and governments borrowing relatively more, the difference between what companies and the government pay, that so-called spread that we talk so much about – well, we think it can stay lower and more compressed than it otherwise would.We don't think this necessarily applies to the low ratings such as single B or lower borrowers, where these better balance sheet trends simply aren't as clear. But overall, a divergent trend between corporate and government balance sheets is giving corporate bond investors something additional to celebrate over the weekend.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced that, for the development of certain…

We use articulators to help ‘mimic' our patient's jaw movements, to ultimately do less adjustments/revisions in the future. But are digital articulators there yet? Or is analog king? Or is digital dentistry just flashy tech with no real-world benefits? Can a virtual articulator truly match the movements of your patient's jaw? Is a CBCT really better than a facebow—and WHEN should you use which? In this cutting-edge episode with Dr. Seth Atkins, we dive into the world of digital articulation—exploring how tools like virtual articulators, CBCT alignment, and 3D-printed provisionals are transforming clinical workflows. You'll learn how to combine analog wisdom with digital precision, improve lab communication, and make full-mouth rehabs more predictable and efficient than ever. From mounting accuracy to motion capture, this episode is your ultimate guide to articulating smarter in the digital age. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fT31Ecf_kDo Watch PDP230 on YouTube Protrusive Dental Pearl: Always send your lab the color version of your digital scan — the PLY file — not just the STL. STL shows shape, but PLY shows color — like markings and tissue detail. Ask your lab: "Are you seeing color, or do you need the PLY?" Better scans = better results Need to Read it? Check out the Full Episode Transcript below! Key Takeaways: Digital methods can enhance accuracy and patient outcomes → but only when used intentionally. Understanding both analog and digital techniques is crucial → they complement each other, not compete. Mentorship plays a significant role in advancing dental education → experience accelerates clinical confidence. Digital workflows can significantly reduce chair time → and improve patient comfort in the process. The integration of CBCT with digital workflows enhances diagnostics → giving clearer insight into static and functional relationships. Digital provisionals offer a cost-effective and efficient solution → saving time, money, and frustration for both dentist and patient. Axiography is essential for capturing patient motion accurately → because real movement matters more than assumptions. Highlights of the Episode: 00:00 Introduction 04:00  Protrusive Dental Pearl 05:32 Interview with Dr. Seth Atkins and his Journey into Digital Dentistry 08:06 The Evolution of Digital Articulation 13:38 Digital Workflow and Mentorship 20:01 Accuracy and Efficiency in Digital Dentistry 22:32 Static and Dynamic Relations in Digital Dentistry 31:01 Interjection 1 36:05 Practical Guidelines on Integrating CBCT 37:15 Interjection 2  40:59 Clinical Observations in Dental Rehabilitation 42:29 Interjection 3  45:21 Introduction to Axiography 46:40 Advancements in Digital Dentistry 49:33 3D Printing in Dental Practice 53:31 Motion Tracking on Digital Articulators 57:30 Cost Efficiency of Digital Tools 01:01:10 Alternatives to CBCT 01:05:52 Involvement with AES and Future Plans Check out the study mentioned: "Comparison of the accuracy of a cone beam computed tomography-based virtual mounting technique with that of the conventional mounting technique using facebow"

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Ariana, what's the setup?Ariana Salvatore: So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9th, and unless it's extended, we could see a reposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries, though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week.But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case. Let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?Michael Zezas: So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariffs.Ariana Salvatore: Right, and around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals, but have we seen any real progress in that area?Michael Zezas: Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK framework agreement. And here's an important detail, three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.Ariana Salvatore: Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?Michael Zezas: So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here.So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks, and maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact: 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration.There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic. A strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route.But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre-2024 levels.Ariana Salvatore: So wide bands of uncertainty, and it sounds like the more constructive outcome is quite similar to our base case, which is what we have in place right now. But translating that more aggressive path into what that means for the economy, we think it would reinforce our house view that the risks here are skewed to the downside.Our economists estimate that tariffs begin to impact inflation about four months after implementation with the growth effects lagging by about eight months. That sets us up for weak but not quite recessionary growth. We're talking 1% GDP on an annual basis in 2025 and 2026, and the tariff passed through to prices and inflation data probably starting in August.Michael Zezas: So bottom line, watch carefully on Wednesday and be vigilant for changes to the status quo on tariff levels. There's a lot of optionality in how this plays out, as trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high. Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Send us a textThe world often feels fundamentally unsafe for those of us living with PTSD, even before we turn on the news. When global events like military conflicts, mass shootings, and political turmoil dominate headlines, our already sensitive nervous systems go into overdrive, confirming what trauma has already taught us – that danger lurks everywhere.Yet finding peace isn't about pretending the world is safe when it isn't. Rather, it's about creating micro-sanctuaries where your nervous system can reset amid chaos. This episode offers practical tools for navigating global uncertainty while protecting your mental health. We explore vagus nerve regulation techniques like the 4-4-4 breathing method (four seconds inhale, four seconds hold, four seconds exhale) and gentle self-massage along the vagal pathway. The 5-4-3-2-1 grounding exercise engages your senses and activates the logical part of your brain, pulling you away from emotional flooding during anxiety spikes.Connection proves essential despite our tendency to isolate when triggered. Having trusted people who understand your specific needs without judgment provides crucial safety. Rather than consuming news directly, consider having these trusted individuals filter important information for you. Alternatives like faith-based news summaries can provide necessary awareness without the cortisol-inducing presentation of mainstream media. Remember, we weren't designed to bear the emotional weight of global suffering – only to care well for our immediate circles of influence.Throughout your healing journey, hold tight to this truth: you aren't broken – you're healing. You aren't weak – you're surviving. The path to peace comes through small, intentional choices: one boundary, one breath, one moment of presence at a time. As Psalm 91 reminds us, even when thousands fall around us, we can find refuge. You are seen, known, heard, loved, and deeply valued, both by the God of the universe and by those who understand the unique challenges of living with trauma in an uncertain world.You ARE:SEEN KNOWN HEARD LOVED VALUED

Ron Kamdem, our U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts & Commercial Real Estate Analyst, discusses how GenAI could save the real estate industry $34 billion and where the savings are most likely to be found.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ron Kamdem, Head of Morgan Stanley's U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts and Commercial Real Estate research. Today I'll talk about the ways GenAI is disrupting the real estate industry.It's Tuesday, July 1st, at 10am in New York.What if the future of real estate isn't about location, location, location – but automation, automation, automation?While it may be too soon to say exactly how AI will affect demand for real estate, what we can say is that it is transforming the business of real estate, namely by making operations more efficient. If you're a customer dealing with a real estate company, you can now expect to interact with virtual leasing assistants. And when it comes to drafting your lease documents, AI can help you do this in minutes rather than hours – or even days.In fact, our recent work suggests that GenAI could automate nearly 40 percent of tasks across half a million occupations in the real estate investment trusts industry – or REITs. Indeed, across 162 public REITs and commercial real estate services companies or CRE with $92 billion of total labor costs, the financial impact may be $34 billion, or over 15 percent of operating cash flow. Our proprietary job posting database suggests the top four occupations with automation potential are management – so think about middle management – sales, office and administrative support, and installation maintenance and repairs.Certain sub-sectors within REITs and CRE services stand to gain more than others. For instance, lodging and resorts, along with brokers and services, and healthcare REITs could see more than 15 percent improvement in operating cash flow due to labor automation. On the other hand, sectors like gaming, triple net, self-storage, malls, even shopping centers might see less than a 5 percent benefit, which suggests a varied impact across the industry.Brokers and services, in particular, show the highest potential for automation gains, with nearly 34 percent increase in operating cash flow. These companies may be the furthest along in adopting GenAI tools at scale. In our view, they should benefit not only from the labor cost savings but also from enhanced revenue opportunities through productivity improvement and data center transactions facilitated by GenAI tools.Lodging and resorts have the second highest potential upside from automating occupations, with an estimated 23 percent boost in operating cash flow. The integration of AI in these businesses not only streamline operations but also opens new avenues for return on investments, and mergers and acquisitions.Some companies are already using AI in their operations. For example, some self-storage companies have integrated AI into their digital platforms, where 85 percent of customer interactions now occur through self-selected digital options. As a result, they have reduced on-property labor hours by about 30 percent through AI-powered staffing optimization. Similarly, some apartment companies have reduced their full-time staff by about 15 percent since 2021 through AI-driven customer interactions and operational efficiencies.Meanwhile, this increased application of AI is driving new revenue to AI-enablers. Businesses like data centers, specialty, CRE services could see significant upside from the infrastructure buildout from GenAI. Advanced revenue management systems, customer acquisition tools, predictive analytics are just a few areas where GenAI can add value, potentially enhancing the $290 billion of revenue stream in the REIT and CRE services space.However, the broader economic impact of GenAI on labor markets remains hotly debated. Job growth is the key driver of real estate demand and the impact of AI on the 164 million jobs in the U.S. economy remains to be determined. If significant job losses materialize and the labor force shrinks, then the real estate industry may face top-line pressure with potentially disproportionate impact on office and lodging. While AI-related job losses are legitimate concerns, our economists argue that the productivity effects of GenAI could ultimately lead to net positive job growth, albeit with a significant need for re-skilling.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. housing market appears to be stuck. Our co-heads of Securitized Product research, Jay Bacow and James Egan, explain how supply and demand, as well as mortgage rates, play a role in the cooling market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And after getting through last week's blistering hot temperatures, today we're going to talk about what may be a cooling housing market. It's Monday, June 30th at 2:30pm in New York. Now, Jim, home prices. We just got another index. They set another record high, but the pace of growth – the acceleration as a physicist in me wants to say – appears to be slowing. What's going on here?James Egan: The pace of home price growth reported this month was 2.7 percent. That is the lowest that it's been since August of 2023. And in our view, the reason's pretty simple. Supply is increasing, while demand has stalled.Jay Bacow: But Jim, this was a report for the spring selling season. I know we got it in June, but this is supposed to be the busiest time of the year. People are happy to go around. They're looking at moving over the summer when the kids aren't in school. We should be expecting the supply to increase. Are you saying that it's happening more than it's anticipated?James Egan: That is what we're saying. Now, we should be expecting inventories today to be higher than they were in, call it January or February. That's exactly the seasonality that you're referring to. But it's the year-over-year growth we're paying attention to here. Homes listed for sale are up year-over-year, 18 months in a row. And that pace, it's been accelerating. Over the past 40 years, the pace of growth from this past month was only eclipsed one time, the Great Financial Crisis.Jay Bacow: [sighs] I always get a little worried when the housing analyst brings up the Great Financial Crisis. Are you saying that this time the demand isn't responding?James Egan: That is what we're saying. So, through the first five months of this year, existing home sales are only down about 2 percent versus the first five months of 2024. So they've basically kind of plateaued at these levels. But that also means that we're seeing the fewest number of transactions through May in a calendar year since 2009. And that combination of easing inventory and lackluster demand, it's pushed months of supply back to levels that we haven't seen since the beginning of this pandemic. Call it the fourth quarter of 2019, first quarter of 2020, right before inventory has really plummeted to historic lows.Jay Bacow: All right, so 2009, another financial crisis reference. But you're also – you're speaking around a national level, and as a housing analyst, I feel like you haven't really spoken about the three most important factors when we think about things which are: Location. Location. And location.James Egan: Absolutely. And the deceleration that we're seeing in home price growth – and I would point out it is still growth – has been pervasive across the country. Year-over-year, HPA is now decelerating in 100 percent of the top 100 MSAs, for which we have data. In fact, a full quarter of them, 25 percent of these cities are now actually seeing prices decline on a year-over-year basis. And that's up from just 5 percent with declining home prices one year ago.Jay Bacow: As a homeowner, I do like the home price growth. And is it the same story when you look more narrowly around supply and demand?James Egan: So, there might be some geographical nuances, but we do think that it largely boils down to that. Local inventory growth has been a very good indicator of weaker home price performance, particularly the level of for-sale inventory today versus that fourth quarter of 2019. If we look at it on a geographic basis, of 14 MSAs that have the highest level of inventory today compared to 2019, 11 of them are in either Florida or Texas. On the other end of the spectrum, the cities where inventory remains furthest away from where it was four and a half years ago, they're in the Northeast, they're in the Midwest.Jay Bacow: As somebody who lives in the Northeast, I'd like to hear that again. But you're also; you're quoting existing prices, which that's been the outperformer in the housing market. Right?James Egan: Exactly. New home prices have actually been decreasing year-over-year for the past year and a half at this point. It's actually brought the basis between new home prices, which tend to trade at a little bit of a premium to existing sales; it's brought that basis to its tightest level that we've seen in at least 30 years. And that's before we take into account the fact that home builders have been buying down some of these mortgage rates. But Jay, you've recently done some work trying to size this.Jay Bacow: Yeah. First it might help to explain what a buydown is.A home builder might have a new home listed at say, $450,000. And with mortgage rates in the context of about 6.5 percent right now, the home buyer might not be able to afford that, so they offer to pay less. The home builder – often many of them also have an origination arm as well. They'll say, you know what? We'll sell it to you at that $450,000, but we'll give you a lower mortgage rate; instead of 6.5 percent, we'll sell it to you for $450,000 with a 5 percent mortgage rate. Then maybe the home buyer can afford that.James Egan: And so, new home prices are actually coming down. And by that we're specifically referring to the median price of new home transactions. They're falling despite the fact that these buy downs might be influencing prices a little bit higher.Jay Bacow: Right. And when we look at how often this is happening, it's a little actually hard to get it from the data because they don't have to report it. But when we look at the distribution of mortgage rates in a given month – prior to 2022, there were effectively no purchase loans that were originated less than one point below the prevailing mortgage rate for a given month.However, more recently we're up to about 12 percent of Ginnie Mae purchases, and those are the more credit constrained borrowers that might have a harder time buying a home. And about 5 percent of conventional purchase loans are getting originated with a rate 1 percent below the outstanding marketJames Egan: And so, this might be another sign that we're seeing a little bit of softening in home prices. But what are the implications on the agency mortgage side?Jay Bacow: I would say there's probably two things that we're keeping an eye out on. Because these are homeowners that are getting below market rate, the investors are getting a below market coupon. And because they're getting sold at a discount, they don't want that, but they're going to stay around for a while. So, investors are getting these rates that they don't want for longer.And then the other thing you think about from the home buyer perspective is, you know, maybe they – it's good for them right now. But if they want to sell that home, because they're getting a below market mortgage rate, they bought the home for maybe more than other people would've. So, unless they can sell it with that mortgage attached, which is very difficult to do, they probably have to sell it for a lower price than when they bought it.Now Jim, what does all this mean for home prices going forward?James Egan: Now, when we think about home prices, we're talking about the home price indices, right? And so those are going to be repeat sales. It's going to, by definition, look at existing prices and not necessarily the dynamics we're talking in the new home price market.Jay Bacow: Okay, so all this builder buy down stuff is interesting for what it means for new home prices – but doesn't impact all the HPA indices that you reference.James Egan: Exactly, and at the national level, despite what we've been talking about on this podcast, we do think that home prices remain more supported than what we are seeing locally. Inventory is increasing, but it also remains near historically low levels. Months of supply that I mentioned at the top of this podcast, it's picked up to the highest level it's been since the beginning of this pandemic. We're also talking about four to four and a half months of supply. Anything below six is a tight environment that has been historically associated with home prices continuing to climb.That's why our base case is for positive HPA this year. We're at +2 percent. That's slower than where we are now. We think you're going to continue to see deceleration. And because of what we're seeing from a supply and demand perspective, we are a little bit more skewed to the downside in our bear case. Instead of that +2, we're at -3 percent than we are towards the upside in our bull case. Instead of that plus two, we're at plus 5 percent in the bull case. So slower HPA from here, but still positive.Jay Bacow: Well, Jim, it's always a pleasure talking to you, particularly when you're highlighting that the home price growth is going to be stronger in the place where I own a home.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you listening, thank you for listening to another episode of Thoughts on the Market. Please leave a review or a like wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.

Stock tickers may not immediately price in uncertainty during times of geopolitical volatility. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests a different indicator to watch.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about how we're trying to simplify the complicated questions of recent geopolitical events.It's Friday, June 27th at 2pm in London.Recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran and the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel have dominated the headlines. The situation is complicated, uncertain, and ever changing. From the time that this episode is recorded to when you listen to it, conditions may very well have changed again.Geopolitical events such as this one often have a serious human, social and financial cost, but they do not consistently have an impact on markets. As analysis by my colleague, Michael Wilson and his team have shown, over a number of key geopolitical events over the last 30 years, the impact on the S&P 500 has often been either fleeting or somewhat non-existent. Other factors, in short, dominate markets.So how to deal with this conundrum? How to take current events seriously while respecting that historical precedent that they often can have more limited market impact? How to make a forecast when quite simply few investors feel like they have an edge in predicting where these events will go next?In our view, the best way to simplify the market's response is to watch oil prices. Oil remains an important input to the world economy, where changes in price are felt quickly by businesses and consumers.So when we look back at past geopolitical events that did move markets in a more sustained way, a large increase in oil prices often meaning a rise of more than 75 percent year-over-year was often part of the story. Such a rise in such an important economic input in such a short period of time increases the risk of recession; something that credit markets and many other markets need to care about. So how can we apply this today?Well, for all the seriousness and severity of the current conflict, oil prices are actually down about 20 percent relative to a year ago. This simply puts current conditions in a very different category than those other periods be they the 1970s or more recently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine that represented genuine oil price shocks. Why is oil down? Well, as my colleague Martin Rats referred to on an earlier episode of this program, oil markets do have very healthy levels of supply, which is helping to cushion these shocks.With oil prices actually lower than a year ago, we think the credit will focus on other things. To the positive, we see an alignment of a few short-term positive factors, specifically a pretty good balance of supply and demand in the credit market, low realized volatility, and a historically good window in the very near term for performance. Indeed, over the last 15 years, July has represented the best month of the year for returns in both investment grade and high yield credit in both the U.S. and in Europe.And what could disrupt this? Well, a significant spike in oil prices could be one culprit, but we think a more likely catalyst is a shift of those favorable conditions, which could happen from August and beyond. From here, Morgan Stanley economists' forecasts see a worsening mix of growth in inflation in the U.S., while seasonal return patterns to flip from good to bad.In the meantime, however, we will keep watching oil.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, I'm joined by Dr. Craig D. Clayton, a functional and biomimetic dentist who's changing the way we think about oral health. With a background rooted in biological dentistry and a strong focus on root-cause care, Dr. Clayton walks us through cavity prevention, airway health, and why some dental practices may be making things worse instead of better. We also get into how diet, mouth breathing, and even pregnancy affect your teeth and gums in ways most of us never hear about.→ Leave Us A Voice Message! | https://telbee.io/channel/4_b9zzx58wdkuwirqkcxwa/Topics Discussed:→ What is biomimetic dentistry and how does it work?→ How do cavities really form?→ Can mouth breathing cause dental issues?→ How does diet affect oral health?Sponsored By:→ Be Well By Kelly Protein Powder & Essentials | Get $10 off your order with PODCAST10 at bewellbykelly.com.→ AG1 | Get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D3+K2 AND 5 free AG1 Travel Packs with your first subscription at drinkAG1.com/bewell.→ Minnow | Go to shopminnow.com and enter code MEETMINNOW15 at checkout to receive 15% off your first order. → OneSkin | Visit oneskin.co/BEWELL and use code BEWELL for 15% off your first purchase.Timestamps:→ 00:00:00 - Introduction→ 00:01:57 - Functional and biomimetic dentistry→ 00:05:39 - The death cycle and root-cause care→ 00:10:19 - Cavity treatment and prevention→ 00:14:49 - Diet and oral health→ 00:16:21 - Favorite product picks→ 00:17:31 - The science behind cavities→ 00:19:42 - Types of dental fillings→ 00:21:58 - Kelly's dental story→ 00:26:06 - Deep grooves and sealants→ 00:32:41 - Kids' dental health and airway issues→ 00:39:35 - How mouthbreathing affects teeth→ 00:45:18 - Daily habits for oral health→ 00:51:11 - Alternatives to toothpaste→ 00:52:16 - Smarter dentist visits→ 00:55:03 - Electrolytes, coffee, and oral health→ 00:59:28 - Cavities during pregnancy→ 01:03:13 - Dr. Craig's practice and approachShow Links: → Elementa Silver use code RESTORATION15 for 15% off.Check Out Dr. Craig:→ Instagram→ The Real Cause of Cavities (freebie) → The Free Products Guide (freebie) → Dentistry Disrupted Podcast→ The Ultimate Guide on How To Cure Cavities (digital product)→ The...

Our Australia Materials Analyst Rahul Anand discusses why critical minerals may be the Achilles' heel of humanoids as demand significantly outpaces supply amid geopolitical uncertainties.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Rahul Anand: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Rahul Anand, Head of Morgan Stanley's Australia Materials Research team.Today, I'll dig deeper into one of the vital necessities for the development of robotics – critical minerals – and why they're so vital to be front of mind for the Western world today. It's Wednesday, June 25th at 8am in Sydney, Australia. Humanoid robots will soon become an integral part of our daily lives. A few weeks ago, you heard my colleagues Adam Jonas and Sheng Zhong discuss how humanoids are going to transform the economy and markets. Morgan Stanley Research expects this market to reach more than a billion units by 2050 and generate almost [$] 5 trillion in annual revenue. When we think about that market, and we think about what it could do for critical minerals demand, that could skyrocket. And the key areas of critical minerals demand would basically be focused on rare earths, lithium and graphite. Each one of these complex machines is going to require about a kilo of rare earths, 2 kgs of lithium, 6.5 kgs kilos of copper, 1.5 kgs of nickel, 3 kgs of graphite, and about 200 grams of cobalt. Importantly, this market from a cumulative standpoint by the year 2050, could be to the tune of about $800 billion U.S., which is staggering.And beyond that market size of $800 billion U.S., I think it's important to drill a bit deeper – because if we now consider how these markets are dominated currently, comes the China angle. And China currently dominates 88 percent of rare earth supply, 93 percent of graphite supply and 75 percent of refined lithium supply. China recently placed controls on seven heavy rare earths and permanent magnet exports in response to tariff announcements that were made by the U.S., and a comprehensive deal there is still awaited. It's very important that we have to think about diversification today, not just because these critical minerals are so heavily dominated by China. But more importantly, if we think about how the supply chain comes about, it's now taking circa 18 years to get a new mine online, and that's the statistic for the past five years of mines that came online. That number is up nearly 50 percent from last decade, and that's been driven basically by very long approval processes now in the Western world, alongside very long exploration times that are required to get some of these mines up and running. On top of that, when we think about the supply demand balance, by 2040 we're expecting that the NdPr, or the rare earth, market would be in a 26 percent deficit. Lithium could be in a deficit close to 80 percent. So, it's not just about supply security. It's also about how long it will take to bring these mines on. And on top of that, how big the amount of supply that's required is really going to be. I know when you think about 2040, it sounds very long dated, but it's important to understand that we have to act now. And in this humanoid piece of research that we have done as the global materials team, which was led by the Australian materials team, we basically have provided 34 global stocks to play this thematic in the rare earths, lithium and rare earth magnet space. It's also very important to remember and keep front of mind that as part of the London negotiations that happened between U.S. and China, no agreement was reached on critical military use rare earth magnets and exports. Now that's an important point because that's going to play as a key point of leverage in any future trade deal that comes about between the two countries. This remains an evolving situation, and this is something that we are going to continue monitoring and will bring you the latest on as time progresses.Look, thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.