Podcasts about Alternatives

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we're talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It's Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you've been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it's complicated. Let's start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there's still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what's going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations. First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it's clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven't yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren't yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn't help either. It's all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don't lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

In this conversation, Logan Nelson discusses the challenges small businesses face in securing funding, the importance of maintaining a positive mindset, and the value of collaboration and education in business. He emphasizes the difficulties of traditional bank loans and the pitfalls of merchant cash advances, while also sharing insights on problem-solving and the significance of being open to learning from mistakes. The conversation concludes with ways to connect with Logan and his business.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true ‘white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a “mini-mastermind” with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming “Retreat”, either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas “Big H Ranch”? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buying opportunity, if it arrives. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how youth unemployment will impact future growth and stability across China, India, and Indonesia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – Asia's young workforce is facing a significant challenge. How a soft labor market will shape everything from consumer demand to social stability and long-term growth. It's Tuesday, October 14th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. Across Asia, a concerning trend is emerging. The region's younger generations face mounting challenges in the job market. Asia's youth unemployment averages 16 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. rate of 10.5 percent. Youth unemployment rates are running two to three times higher than headline unemployment rates. The underlying situation is even weaker than what is represented by [the] unemployment rate. And within Asia, the challenge is most acute in China, India, and Indonesia, the three most populous economies. Youth unemployment rates for these three economies are running close to double, as compared to other economies in Asia. Now let's take a closer look at China. The urban youth unemployment rate, i.e. for 16–24-year-olds, has steadily increased since 2019. What's driving this rise in unemployment? A mismatch in labor demand and supply. The number of university graduates surged 40 percent over the last five years to close to 12 million. But economy-wide employment has declined by 20 million over the same period. Entry-level wages are sluggish, and automation plus subdued services growth mean fewer opportunities for newer entrants. Turning to India, their unemployment rate is the highest in the region at 17.6 percent. Employment creation has been subdued. And on top of it, India also faces another issue: underemployment. Post-COVID, primary sector – i.e. farming and mining – employment rose by 50 million, reaching a 17-year high. Note that these jobs are relatively low productivity jobs. And this is explained by the fact that [the] primary sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP but it employs about 40 percent of the workforce. That's a sign of COVID-induced underemployment. How fast must growth be to tackle the unemployment challenge? In our base case, India's GDP will grow at an average of 6.5 percent over the coming decade – and this will mean that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies globally. But this pace of growth will not be sufficient to generate enough jobs. To keep [the] unemployment rate stable, India needs an average GDP growth of close to 7.5 percent; and to address underemployment, the required run rate in GDP growth must be even higher at 12 percent. Shifting to Indonesia, its youth unemployment rate is the second highest in the region. Moreover, close to 60 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. And many of these jobs pay below minimum wage. Similar to India, both these trends signal underemployment. The key reason behind this challenge is weak investment growth. Indonesia's investment-to-GDP ratio has dropped meaningfully over the last five years. So, what's the way forward? For China, shifting towards consumption and services could reduce labor market mismatches. And for India and Indonesia, boosting investment is key. India in particular needs much stronger growth in its industrial and exports sectors. If reforms fall short, policy makers may need to fall back on increasing social welfare spending to manage social stability risks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee are live from the CAIS Alternatives Conference in Beverly Hills to discuss the market, alt investments and more. Plus, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson and Oak Hill Advisors CEO Glenn August joins us live with their take.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kipp is Co-President of Ares Management, which manages $572 billion in assets (as of 6/30/25) and is a global leader in alternative investments. He discusses Ares' rapid growth, leadership strategy, and the evolving landscape for private assets and clients.

Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys discuss what's driving unprecedented consolidation for asset and wealth management firms.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We're going to unpack today what's driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.It's Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What's your outlook for the asset management industry?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that's driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you're looking at me a little dazed on what's solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.So that's the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what's your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that's larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically – deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you're talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint.Betsy Graseck: They're looking to consolidate their providers?Michael Cyprys: Correct.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: They're looking to work with fewer asset managers.Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.And also, I'd point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that's going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that bar is rising…Betsy Graseck: Mm. Michael Cyprys: And firms are thinking about how to compete effectively as the landscape evolves. And look, this is all in the context of already a lot of challenges and changes happening as you think about evolving client needs. The rising cost of doing business, whether it's investing for growth or even harnessing AI, and that's all pressuring profitability. We think this is particularly a challenge for those mid-size money managers that are multi-asset, multi-liquid and global. Those with, call it, [$]0.5 trillion to [$]2 trillion in size, making them more likely to pursue consolidation, opportunities to bolster their capabilities and scale while also generating cost efficiencies.Betsy Graseck: So now looking forward, what type of deals do you expect and how does it differ from past years?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, a few things are different than past years. First is that the deal activity is encompassing many forms of partnership. And we think that this experimentation around partnership will only accelerate. That allows, for example, for private market managers to access retail distribution without owning the end infrastructure and the last mile to the customer. It also allows traditional managers to provide their retail customers with access to high quality private market strategies from well-known and branded firms.Second is we see a broadening out of the types of acquisitions themselves when we talk about M&A, right? So, three types of deals. First are deals within the same vertical or intersector. So, think about this as an asset manager buying another asset manager to acquire capabilities, to gain cost synergies or bolster distribution.Second type of deals that we're seeing are ones that expand beyond one's own vertical. So intersector deals. So, asset management combining with wealth or insurance, for example, where firms would seek to own a larger, greater portion of the overall value chain. And so, these firms are getting closer to that end client. For example, an asset manager getting closer to that end customer. And the third type being financial sponsor deals where a sponsor is investing either as an in an asset or a wealth manager.Now you didn't ask me around the historical outcomes of M&A. But I would say that the historical outcomes have been mixed in the asset management space. But here we think that the opportunity ahead is so bright that we think firms will find ways to navigate and pursue strategic activity. But it does require addressing some of the culture and integration challenges that have plagued some of the deals in the past.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: So, Betsy, what do you see as the key drivers of consolidation in wealth management?Betsy Graseck: There's several. From the wealth manager side, number one is an aging population of advisor and advisor-owners, and the need to address succession and how to best serve their clients when passing on their book of business. So, we've got succession issues as the number one driver. But additionally, the need for scale is clearly getting higher and higher – given the costs of IT infrastructure rising, the needs to be able to leverage AI effectively and to manage your cyber risk effectively. These are just some of the drivers of desire to merge from the wealth manager perspective.Second. We have an increasing buying pool. If you just look at the large cap banks, for example. Significant amount of excess capital. Could we see some of that excess capital be put to work in the wealth management industry? To me, that would make sense. Why? Because wealth management is one of the best, if not the best financial institution service for shareholders. It is a high ROE business. It also is a business that commands a high multiple in the stock market.So, we would not be surprised to see activity there over the course of the next several years. So, Mike, thanks for joining me on the show today.Michael Cyprys: Thanks, Betsy. Always a pleasure.Betsy Graseck: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, I speak with Jay Rajamony, Director of Alternatives at Man Numeric.Jay has been with the firm since 2004, giving him a front-row seat to the evolution of quant equity: from simple factor models and broad signals to today's world of alternative data, model ensembles, and human-machine collaboration.We start with the history: what's changed in quant over the last two decades, why the 2007 quant quake still matters, and how the definition of “alpha” has shifted alongside new tools and data.From there, we explore the interplay between factors and macro regimes, how sparse datasets are reshaping the research process, and what it means to manage risk in a world where your models don't always line up with reality.Jay also offers a compelling perspective on how modern quant investing isn't just about signal breadth anymore—it's about firm breadth, organizational design, and knowing when to lean in and override the machine.Please enjoy my conversation with Jay Rajamony.

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Can you live without debt in today's Canada? In this myth-busting episode, Doug and Ted explore the real cost of going debt-free. They unpack the difference between credit and debt, challenge the necessity of mortgages and student loans, and share strategies to reduce or eliminate debt, whether you're starting out or retiring soon. From rising housing costs to the fear of missing out (FOMO), this episode offers practical, age-specific advice for Canadians trying to regain control of their finances. [00:00] What Does ‘Living Without Debt' Really Mean? [05:00] Why Life Feels Pricier: Inflation vs. Reality [06:30] Homeownership in Canada: Is Debt Inevitable? [08:00] The Canadian Dream: How Culture Fuels Housing Debt [11:00] Is University Worth the Debt? Alternatives to Student Loans [13:00] How to Minimize or Eliminate Debt: Real Strategies [15:30] Crunching the Numbers: Real-Life Debt Scenarios [19:00] What's the Cost of Avoiding Debt Entirely? [22:00] Debt in Retirement: Smart Advice for Seniors [26:40] When Debt Feels Overwhelming: What to Do Next [28:00] Credit vs. Debt: Focus on What Really Matters Free full length Canadian documentary: Debtasized Personal Budgeting Help and Free Spreadsheet DIY Credit Repair Strategies and Free Course Sign Up for the Monthly Debt Free Digest Hoyes Michalos YouTube Channel Disclaimer: The information provided in the Debt Free in 30 Podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as personal financial advice. Individual financial situations vary and may require personal guidance from a financial professional. The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hoyes, Michalos & Associates, or any other affiliated organizations. We do not endorse or guarantee the effectiveness of any specific financial institutions, strategies, or digital tools/apps discussed.

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Broadcast from KSQD, Santa Cruz on 10-09-2025: Dr. Dawn opens by addressing an emailer's question about safety of low-dose lithium for dementia prevention. She reports finding a two-year double-blind placebo-controlled trial of 61 patients with mild cognitive impairment that showed no kidney damage from therapeutic lithium doses. While low-dose lithium at 2-3 milligrams daily appears safe compared to therapeutic doses of 50-100 milligrams, she notes its calming effects may improve cognition. >/li> She discusses over-the-counter hearing aids now available without prescription, ranging from $98 to $999, representing significant savings compared to prescription models costing four times as much. >/li> An emailer asks about long-term methotrexate use for psoriasis, reporting declining white blood cell counts and slower healing. Dr. Dawn reviews studies showing that in 13-year rheumatoid arthritis trials, severe side effects occurred in only 3% of patients. She recommends monthly blood monitoring including comprehensive metabolic panels to check liver and kidney function. As an alternative, she suggests apremilast, which showed excellent long-term safety in pooled data from half a million patient years with virtually no liver, kidney, or blood count problems. She also recommends trying phototherapy with tuned red light frequencies and topical treatments before considering drugs like etanercept that carry leukemia and lymphoma risks. >/li> Dr. Dawn expands on ultra-processed food dangers, explaining how mechanical processing of carbohydrates accelerates digestion and causes blood sugar spikes that lead to insulin resistance. Steel-cut oatmeal and wheat berries digest slowly and accelerate glucose at a low rate, while instant oatmeal and white bread hit like loud spikes. She emphasizes that processing primarily affects carbohydrates, not proteins or fats. Whole fruits are vastly superior to juices because juicing makes fruit sugars unnaturally available to metabolism. She also warns about hidden microplastics entering food through processing equipment, transport tanks, and packaging, with longer processing and travel distances increasing contamination. >/li> Dr.Dawn discusses the health dangers of sedentary behavior, noting that simply walking 20 minutes daily can lower blood pressure without requiring intense exertion. Dr. Dawn offers creative exercise solutions including bouncing on inflatable exercise balls during screen time, keeping weights in bathrooms for tooth-brushing workouts or in other frequently used spaces, doing resistance band exercises while waiting in cars, and practicing single-leg squats for balance. She describes the geriatric "get up and go" test where inability to stand, walk 10 feet, return, and sit within 10 seconds predicts five-year mortality. >/li> A caller discusses motivation challenges with his unused NordicTrack equipment. Dr. Dawn suggests making exercise rewarding by listening to engaging podcasts exclusively during workouts, creating positive associations that build sustainable habits. She explains that five minutes daily for six days weekly, maintained for a month, typically becomes permanent. The caller correctly notes that exercise increases mitochondrial production, and Dr. Dawn expands on this, explaining how oxygen debt triggers DNA signals to build new muscle fibers and mitochondria, raising metabolic rate, improving glucose metabolism, and increasing brain-derived neurotrophic factor that promotes new neural connections, making exercise crucial for preventing cognitive decline. >/li>

Every podcaster's got their go-to gear, but which tools actually make a difference? Today, we put our favorites on the table, one powered by AI and one that's not considered AI or perhaps falls in a gray area. We discuss tools ranging from  ChatGPT to Audacity and a few surprises in between, and the crew debates what's worth keeping in your toolkit. We also talk about community platforms like Kajabi and Go High Level, and ask the big question: are any tools non-AI anymore? The week wraps with wins that prove progress isn't about having every gadget, it's about how you use what you've got.Episode Highlights: [01:20] Happy Canadian Thanksgiving[05:20] Favorite AI and Non-AI Podcasting Tools[12:46] Community Building and Monetization Strategies[26:08] Discovering Claude and Coding Applications[26:59] Exploring Audio Editing Tools[28:02] Transcription and Social Media Tools[31:31] Teleprompter Apps and Alternatives[40:09] Podcasting Wins and Community HighlightsLinks & Resources: Join The Empowered Podcasting Facebook Group:www.facebook.com/groups/empoweredpodcasting⁠ChatGPT: https://www.chatgpt.comOtter: https://otter.aiPatreon: https://www.patreon.comKajabi: https://kajabi.comZoom: https://zoom.usCircle: https://circle.soMeetup: https://www.meetup.comSkool: https://www.skool.comGo High Level: https://www.gohighlevel.comResound FM: https://resound.fmAudacity: https://www.audacityteam.orgHindenburg: https://hindenburg.comClaude: https://claude.aiSlack: https://slack.comSora: https://sora.comElgato Teleprompter: https://www.elgato.com/en/p/prompter-xlDaVinci Resolve: https://www.blackmagicdesign.com/products/davinciresolveAdobe Audition: https://www.adobe.com/products/audition.htmlAliExpress: https://www.aliexpress.comSonible (Audio Plugins): https://www.sonible.comiZotope: https://www.izotope.comRethinking Podcasting (Podcast by Matt): https://rethinkingpodcasting.comChatter Social: https://chatter.socialEcamm Live: https://www.ecamm.comStream Deck (by Elgato): https://www.elgato.com/en/stream-deckRadio Garden State: https://radiogardenstate.comOdyssey App: https://www.audacy.com TuneIn: https://tunein.comAfros & Audio Podcast Festival: https://www.afrosandaudio.comRemember to rate, follow, share, and review our podcast. Your support helps us grow and bring valuable content to our community.Join us LIVE every weekday morning at 7 am ET (US) on ⁠Clubhouse⁠: ⁠⁠⁠ https://www.clubhouse.com/house/empowered-podcasting-e6nlrk0w⁠⁠Or Join us on Chatter: https://preview.chattersocial.io/group/98a69881-f328-4eae-bf3c-9b0bb741481dLive on YouTube: ⁠https://youtube.com/@marcronick⁠Brought to you by⁠ ⁠iRonickMedia.com⁠⁠ Please note that some links may be affiliate links, which support the hosts of the PMC. Thank you!--- Send in your mailbag question at:⁠ https://www.podpage.com/pmc/contact/⁠ or ⁠marc@ironickmedia.com⁠Want to be a guest on The Podcasting Morning Chat? Send me a message on PodMatch, here: ⁠https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/1729879899384520035bad21b⁠

In this multi-part series, we've focused on just one movie to explore a key idea in film studies. But this one choice means we've left out multitudes. Here is the larger set of also-rans we wrestled with before finally choosing “The Night of the Hunter”.***Referenced media in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 12A:“The Fabulous Baron Munchausen” (Karel Zeman, 1962)“Akira Kurosawa's Dreams” (Akira Kurosawa, 1990)“Badlands” (Terrence Malick, 1973)“They Shall Not Grow Old” (Peter Jackson, 2018)Audio quotation in GATEWAY CINEMA, Episode 12A:“Vintage Movie Projector | Sound Effect | Feel The Past Film Industry” by n Beats, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUICp5XeJ4“Film Clapperboard Green Screen Effect With Sound” by Jacob Anderson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1sEiCa-yic“Slide projector changing with clicks” by (Soundsnap), https://www.soundsnap.com/tags/slide_projector?page=2

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley's first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

What if you could keep your edge in busy seasons without apologizing for your power away?In this episode of Life of And, Tiffany sits down with mentor and recurring guest Brian Kavicky of Lushin to discuss the hidden cost of reflexive apologies and how to replace them with ownership, clarity, and momentum. They get into why “I'm sorry” often functions as self-protection (and subtle manipulation), when a genuine apology is warranted, and what to say instead so that relationships can strengthen and move forward.Then, Tiffany and Brian connect this mindset to execution: the “cookbook” system for daily behaviors, scheduling what matters on your calendar, and using year-end energy to set meaningful goals for 2026. They also offer a virtual, two-part goal-setting experience built around Life's Roadmap, bucket-list thinking, and friction-removal, so you don't just dream; you do.You'll walk away with a framework to:Ditch reflexive apologies and replace them with facts, ownership, and gratitude (“Thanks for your patience…here's where I'm at”).Spot real vs. faux guilt so you only apologize for actual value violations.Run your “cookbook” like a pro. Block it on the calendar, measure it, and adjust fast when you slip.Finish 2025 strong & set up 2026 with a practical plan.Wish you could talk it out with BK? Good news, you can! Book time with Brian Kavicky here. For more from Tiffany, sign up for her newsletter: https://tiffany-sauder.mykajabi.com/TS-Newsletter-SubscribeFollow Tiffany on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tiffany.sauderCheck out Tiffany's website: https://www.tiffanysauder.com Mentioned in this episode:278: When Everything Feels Like Too Much—Start Here282: The Formula for Finishing the End of the Year StrongTimestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:47) The impact of unnecessary apologies(04:04) Alternatives to apologizing(12:06) Real-life examples and reflections(16:52) The trap of apologizing in sales(19:10) Struggles with maintaining goals(22:38) Managing a busy schedule(24:30) The importance of goal setting(28:36) Avoiding burnout and embracing adventureCheck out the apps and sponsor of this episode:This episode is sponsored by Lushin. As part of our ongoing content partnership, Brian Kavicky joins the podcast monthly to share insights on leadership and sales. No compensation is received for referrals.Created in partnership with Share Your Genius

We sat down with Cheryl Nash, President of APL at InvestCloud, on the boardwalk at Future Proof Festival to discuss the current landscape of retail investing. APL is a portfolio management platform that powers construction, modeling, trading, and rebalancing for managed accounts. Cheryl shares how APL democratizes access to private market strategies and enables the private wealth channel to invest in alternatives.

Kora Feder is a well traveled singer songwriter with music in her blood now calling Detroit home. It was a chance meeting that brought me to her music and one song in particular that destroyed my heart in the way only songs can do. There are a few other interview with Kora out there and some of them really good and in-depth. I think I only scratched the surface. I was also distracted by issues I was having with the sound quality and a week's worth of headaches. I encourage you to explore her professionally recorded catalog.Songs written by Kora Feder:Automatic TimesElementary QueenIn A Young Person's BodyBallad to Feel.Support and follow Kora: https://korafeder.com/Support and follow Acoustic Alternatives (clearly I need to buy some microphones and cables): https://johnmbommarito.wixsite.com/johnbommarito/acoustic-alternativesSupport the great home of the podcast, Grove Studios: https://grovestudios.space/

An extended U.S. government shutdown raises the risk for weaker growth potential. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests key checkpoints that investors should keep in mind.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: Three checkpoints we're watching for as the U.S. government shutdown continues. It's Wednesday, October 8th at 10:30am in New York. The federal government shutdown in the United States has crossed the one week mark. But if you're watching the markets, you might be surprised at how calm everything seems. Stocks are steady. Bond yields haven't moved much, and volatility's low. It's more or less the scenario my colleague Ariana and I had talked about in anticipation of the impasse in Washington. We'd noted the potential for uncertainty for investors and market reaction depending on how long the shutdown would last. So that raises a big question: what, if anything, about this government shutdown could shake investor confidence and start moving markets? The question is worth considering. Prediction markets now suggest the most likely outcome is that the government shutdown will not end for at least another week. And as we've seen in past shutdowns, the longer it drags on, the more likely it is to matter. That's because risks to the economic outlook start to accumulate, and investors eventually have to start pricing in a weaker growth outlook. There's a few checkpoints we're watching for – for when investors might start feeling this way. First, the missed paycheck for furloughed federal workers. The first instance of this comes in a few days. Less pay naturally means less spending. Studies suggest that spending among affected workers can drop by two to four percent during a shutdown. That's not huge for GDP at first; but it's a sign the shutdown is having effects beyond Washington, DC. Second, this time might be different because of potential layoffs. The administration has hinted that agencies could move to permanently cut staff — something we haven't seen before. Unions have already said they'd challenge that in court. But if those actions start, or even if legal uncertainty grows around them, it could raise the economic stakes. Third, we're watching for real disruptions to economic activity resulting from the shutdown. The last shutdown ended when air traffic in New York was curtailed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers. We're already seeing substantial air traffic delays across the country. More substantial delays or ground halts obviously impede economic activity related to travel. And if such actions don't coincide with signals from DC of progress in negotiating a bill to reopen the government, investors' concern could grow. So here's the bottom line: markets may be right to stay calm — for now. But the longer this shutdown lasts, the more likely one of these pressure points pushes investors to rethink their optimism. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

This week on the Worn & Wound podcast, Zach Kazan welcomes Garrett Jones and Ricardo Sime to the show to talk about potential alternatives to some of the most popular luxury watches. This idea, over the years, has proven to be one of the central questions and debates among watch enthusiasts. If you started your watch journey on the forums before Instagram was the central hub of the watch community, you no doubt came across countless threads asking for advice on alternatives to the most iconic (and often expensive) luxury watches. We look at two watches, the Rolex Submariner and the Cartier Tank, and come up with a handful of alternatives for each. We also discuss the merits of thinking about collecting in this way, and if an alternative can ever really scratch the itch for the “real” thing. We'd love to know your thoughts. Have you ever picked up one watch as an alternative to another? What do you think of our picks as substitutes for the Tank and Submariner? Let us know in the comments or find us on Instagram and let us know. To stay on top of all new episodes, you can subscribe to The Worn & Wound Podcast on all major platforms including Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, and more. You can also find our RSS feed here.And if you like what you hear, then don't forget to leave us a review.If there's a question you want us to answer you can hit us up at info@wornandwound.com, and we'll put your question in the queue. Show Notes Out Of Office: A New England Road Trip with the Rolex SubmarinerExploring Shipwrecks, Diving with Sharks and Getting SCUBA Certified with the Citizen Promaster ‘Fujitsubo' in Black Super TitaniumOut of Office: Exploring the Canadian Rockies with Citizen's Team Promaster[VIDEO] Hands-On with the Citizen Promaster Dive Automatic aka Fujistubo aka BarnacleReview: the Caravelle by Bulova Sea Hunter – Finally A Potential Seiko SKX SuccessorDevin on the “A Tale of Two Wristies” podcastReview: Lorier Neptune CollectionReview: The DOXA Sub 300, A Return To Form[VIDEO] Owner's Review: the Tudor Black Bay “Burgundy”[VIDEO] Review: the echo/neutra RivaneraHands-On: Get a Little Fancy with the Lorier ZephyrSeiko Still Makes a Cartier Tank Lookalike, and they Just Introduced Three New ReferencesIntroducing Cartier's New, and Affordable, Quartz Tanks[VIDEO] Living the Life Exotic: A Year and a Half with the Christopher Ward C1 Bel CantoOwner's Review: The Arcanaut Arc II ForditeSpaceOne Launches the All New WorldTimerWatch Inside | Netflix Official SiteTime on Screen: There Will Be Blood

Danny Moses interviews Shana Sissel, CEO and founder of Banríon Capital Managemen, known as the 'queen of alternatives.' Shana shares her journey in the financial industry, including roles at Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments, Russell Investments, and Orion, and discusses the evolution and importance of alternative investments. She highlights the challenges and opportunities for retail investors in this space and the role of advisor-centric platforms like Banríon . The conversation also touches on current market conditions, the impact of AI, and concerns about valuations and debt. Shana emphasizes the significance of manager selection and understanding market structures in today's complex financial landscape.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are you looking for natural ways to improve your health while staying rooted in faith?In this episode of Faith Fueled Woman, host Kristin Fitch talks with Susan Gladstein, Board-Certified Holistic Health Practitioner and retired Air Force veteran, about her powerful journey of healing after a vaccine injury during military service. Susan shares how she discovered the importance of holistic health, biblical wisdom, and self-advocacy in her recovery—and how you can begin exploring natural alternatives to improve your wellness.Together, we discuss why trusting in God's design for our bodies, embracing gratitude, and making intentional lifestyle choices can lead to greater vitality and emotional well-being. This episode will encourage you to take ownership of your health, explore holistic practices, and lean on faith as you pursue healing and wholeness.TakeawaysHolistic health practices can enhance both physical and emotional well-being.Trusting God's design for our bodies is central to faith-based healing.Being your own health advocate helps you navigate medical challenges with wisdom and discernment.Gratitude shifts your mindset and positively impacts emotional health.Holistic approaches integrate mind, body, and spirit, creating a path to true wellness.Your identity is not your diagnosis—healing is possible through faith and intentional choices.Connect with Susan at SusanGladstein.com or listen to Faith Over PharmaGrab the Be Your Own Health Advocate - Questions to Ask Your Doctor here.Christian women health, faith and natural healing, holistic health for Christian women, vaccine injury recovery, biblical wisdom for wellness, faith over pharma podcast, natural health alternatives, health advocacy for women, Christian women's wellness podcast, spiritual and physical healing, faith-based health journey, overcoming medical challenges with faith, holistic medicine and Christianity, emotional well-being and gratitude, Christian natural living

Our Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains how changes in the yield curve are affecting markets such as insurance, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today – How the shape of the yield curve has affected credit and housing markets, and the risk of changes to the curve and its implications. It's Tuesday, October 7th at 1pm in New York. The shape of the yield curve plays a pivotal role in financial markets. It influences everything from credit conditions to housing and mortgage dynamics. And you've been hearing on this show for some time about more Fed rate cuts coming. Our economists expect 25 basis point rate cuts at the next three meetings – that is October, December and January. And then two more in April and July of next year. What does this mean to the shape of the curve? Our high conviction call has been that investors should position for a steeper yield curve. Why does the curve matter? It's not just a macro signal. It's a transmission mechanism that shapes pricing, risk appetite, and sector flows. Take life insurers, for example. A steeper curve has turbocharged demand for fixed annuity products, which in turn drives flows into spread assets like corporate and securitized credit. Insurance demand has become a powerful technical in credit markets. This year's steepening has been led by falling front-end yields. For example, 2-year Treasuries are down about 60 basis points, significantly outpacing the 40 basis point drop in 10-year yields and just 5 basis point drop in 30-year yields. That front-end move reflects shifting rate expectations and offers relief to highly leveraged issuers who rely on short-term funding. But longer-dated yields remain sticky, keeping all-in borrowing costs elevated. That is good for insurers – and the sale of fixed annuity products – but acts as a brake on overall issuance, helping keep credit spreads tight despite macro uncertainty. That said, not all markets benefit. Mortgage rates, which track longer yields more closely than the fed funds rate, have actually risen 25 to 30 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of 2024. That's a headwind for affordability. While a steeper curve may support lending and future housing supply, it's not helping today's buyers. A flatter curve with lower long-end yields would offer more meaningful relief—but that is clearly not our base case. Bottom line: Rate cuts matter, but the shape of the curve may matter more. A steeper curve is a tailwind for credit but a headwind for housing. And a reminder that not all markets move in sync. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

It's the start of a new quarter, which means it's time for a market recap and our special “Ask Monument Anything” segment. David Armstrong, CFA, gets back together with Erin Hay, CFA, CMT, and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, to walk through the latest market moves, where momentum is showing up, and what investors should be paying attention to. This quarter, they dig into alternatives, gold's surprising surge, and whether today's bull market has more room to run. They also share candid thoughts on cash, dividends, and why being intentional with your portfolio matters more than chasing the latest trend. It's a thoughtful look at what's shaping the markets today and how those themes might matter for investors moving forward. Tune in!! Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 0:00 – Disclosure 0:53 – Market recap 7:01 – Alternatives explained 10:30 – Private equity pitfalls 14:39 – Gold's big rally 22:20 – Bull market signals 25:46 – Cash and dividends 37:02 – Final thoughts 41:30 – Disclosure   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   David Armstrong on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidbarmstrong/   Nate Tonsager on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nate-tonsager/   Erin Hay on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/erinhay/    About “Off the Wall”:    OFF THE WALL is a podcast for business professionals and high-net-worth investors who want to build wealth with purpose. A little bit Wall Street, a little bit off-the-wall; it's your go-to for straightforward, unfiltered wealth advice on topics that founders, business owners, and executives care about.    Learn more about our host Dave Armstrong on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com 

Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industries, from furniture to automobiles. But moving factories and building out domestic manufacturing capacity will likely face some speedbumps amid mismatches in labor, materials and costs. New innovations like factory automation bring their own set of implementation challenges. Understanding how the manufacturing outlook is evolving will be crucial as investors sort out potential winning and losing regions and industries. As factories prepare for the future, institutional investors are well positioned to provide the long-term capital that manufacturers seek to modernize operations, create more resilient supply chains, and grow.  This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a deep dive into trade imbalances and tariffs; how manufacturers are dealing with macro uncertainty; manufacturing's role in supporting labor markets and the broader economy; potential obstacles that could slow reshoring; and portfolio strategies for capturing opportunities amid a manufacturing renaissance.    Our guests are:  Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers  Julius Krein, editor of policy journal American Affairs and head of policy at the New American Industrial Alliance  Josh Shipley, executive managing director and head of Europe at PGIM, overseeing corporate finance offices in the region  Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.  To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com. 

Our strategists Daniel Blake and Tim Chan discuss how Asia is adapting to multipolar world dynamics, tech innovation and longevity trends to create new opportunities for global investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake, Morgan Stanley's Asia Equity and Thematic Strategist. Tim Chan: And I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley Head of Asia Sustainability Research and Thematic Strategist Daniel Blake: Today, how Asia is reshaping its development strategy, corporate governance, and capital markets to lead globally. It's Monday, October 6th at 8am in Singapore. Tim Chan: And it's also 8am in Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: Asia is experiencing a number of dramatic changes that are reshaping industries, even entire economies. Deglobalization, supply chain shifts, frenetic investment in AI and looming disruption from the adoption of the technology, rapid energy transformation, and the transition to super aged populations as longevity drives investment in innovative healthcare and better nutrition are just some of the overarching themes. Asia's transformation is a story every global investor needs to follow and look for opportunities in. Tim Chan: So, what are the overarching themes, when you look at Asia Pacific? For example, what are the key themes that you're seeing in terms of driving the equity return and the market trend that you're seeing? Daniel Blake: We're approaching the Asia thematic opportunity from the framework of a competitive reinvention. It's competitive because this is deeply rooted in the cultural and business norms across much of the region, which has had an export focus through the modernization process in Japan, and more broadly with the emergence of the Asia Tigers. But we're seeing this competition really stepping up another notch. As countries look at how they can take market share in emerging technologies, and also this overarching competition between the U.S. and China, which sits at the heart of the multipolar world theme we've been laying out in recent years. We're also seeing a reinvention of development strategies of corporate governance frameworks and of capital markets to try to better improve the financial supply chain, to see the capital raising the capital allocation process improved and ultimately drive better returns for an aging population. So, Tim, you've been very focused on the corporate governance improvements that were seen in much of the region. Take us through what you think is most compelling and most important for investors to note. Tim Chan: I think governance reforms is a really key thing for Asia Pacific. Take an example in Japan, in the past we have done some correlation analysis between the major governance factors and what are driving the return. What we have found is that, first of all, there is a significant alpha potential from online companies with leading governance metrics and also companies that may improve their governance metrics over time. So, if we look at the independence of board of directors as an example. There is a positive correlation between the total return and also the independence in Japan market. And overall, we are seeing a major government improvement. As Daniel you have mentioned, China, Korea, India, and Singapore, and Japan as well – all these markets together account for over 70 percent of the market cap in MS Asia Pacific in index. So that's why, we think the governance reform is really driving the return of Asia Pacific as a whole. Daniel, after talking about the governance reform and capital market reform, I know multipolar level is also a key theme for Asia Pacific. So, what you are seeing in terms of multipolar level in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the multipolar world theme has come back to the foreground in 2025 as trade tensions have risen, as deal making has been struck or attempted. And we've seen the concept of weaponized interdependence really being proven out in the second quarter of 2025, as China has been in recent years, implementing frameworks for export controls and leverage these quite effectively. So economic security initiatives have come back to the focus for investors. Over recent years, we've seen a number being set up across the region, including Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act, the Self-Reliant India framework, and South Korea's Supply Chain Stabilization Act, as well as Australia's National Reconstruction Fund. So, we see a number of investment opportunities flowing from these reforms. Ultimately the critical mineral and permanent magnet supply chain is very much in focus, but we're also expecting to see semi localization. So, semiconductor localization efforts are continuing to drive investment and activity. Naturally, defense has been a key area of focus for investors in 2025, and overall we see defense spending rising in Asia from 600 U.S. billion dollars in 2024 to [$]1 trillion in 2030.So, Tim, the energy security theme fits as part of this overall future of energy theme that you've been exploring with the team. How do you see this intersection with the multipolar world and what are the key investment opportunities? Tim Chan: For the future of energy, I think the energy story is really at the core of Asia multipolar world positioning. Take an example, we are seeing for Southeast Asia, the region is importing gas from U.S., and then also Korea and Japan are also trying to export their nuclear technology to the Western world as well. I think all these have a part to play in the multipolar world; but at the same time, they are also crucial for these countries to meet their own energy target and strategy. In Asia Pacific, when we look at the future of energy, there are a few driving force[s]. One is the very strong growth of renewable energy. Take an example, in India, we are seeing a huge CapEx going into the renewable energy sector and solar sector as well. China is already the biggest market in solar panel. Then also Korea and Japan are developing their nuclear capacity as well. And as I have mentioned, they also export their nuclear technology to the Western world. So, I would say, these Asian countries are balancing the multipolar world priorities with their future of energy target as well. And then there were also lots of opportunities between these dynamics; I will highlight two examples. One is a nuclear renaissance thesis that we have written extensively in the past two years. We have highlighted Japan and Korea being the key beneficiaries under this multipolar world and future of energy dynamics. And then the other would be the gas globalization in Southeast Asia or ASEAN region, where we see opportunities in the gas distributor, gas infrastructure in Southeast Asia. And then gas is going to be much more important when it comes to the energy, security and transition agenda in Southeast Asia region. So we are seeing lots of development in the future of energy in Asia Pacific. But when it comes to the other big theme that is AI. Asia Pacific is also a leader in a global AI race. So, Danny, what are the most reputable trend that you're seeing on a national or regional level? On tech diffusion and AI in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the concept of competitive reinvention also is useful in understanding Asia's response to AI and technology diffusion. So, we've seen China in particular, looking to strengthen its position in the development phase of new technologies. And we're also seeing on the export competition front, more incentives to compete for the next phase of supply chain diversification. We're also seeing the emerging class of China MNCs that are sitting at the heart of our China Emerging Frontiers research. And another key area of discussion and research for us is understanding China's unique AI path. Where we're seeing more of a focus on policy makers and corporates playing to strengths in terms of power, data and talent, given the shortages of compute, and at the same time wanting to pursue a localization strategy over the medium term. On the technology front, we think the India stack is also still underappreciated as a digital enabler of opportunities in the New India. And then more broadly, we are looking for companies that we see in Asia that will prove to be AI adoption leaders. So, this underpins a really another key work stream for us in identifying opportunities from AI and tech diffusion into the region. So, Tim, how about when we turn to the theme of longevity, what are the key investment opportunities you see in Asia Pacific? Tim Chan: First of all, let's look at China. So, China is entering a super age society and by 2030, China's elderly population will hit 260 million. So that is a big number, which accounts for 18 percent of the population. And Japan as well, and Korea as well. Korea is already entering the super aged society. And then there have been reform program on healthcare, financial system pension and labor market in order to support these, old aging population. And for Japan, the focus is really on not just living longer but also living more healthy. Take an example, we have done some reports on the healthy food industry in Japan. And how different companies are providing affordable, healthy food to consumer. And we think that will create opportunities for investor, if they would like to look into longevity as a theme. Overall, we are seeing new market in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and affordable healthy food, as well as the reform in the wealth management and pension system that will create opportunities in the financial market as well. And the longevity economy and or the silver economy is becoming a big theme for Asia Pacific for a long time to come. Daniel Blake: Tim, thanks for taking the time to talk. Tim Chan: Yeah, great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Barings' John Lippmann and CBRE Investment Management's Elisabeth Troni share strategies for navigating risk and unlocking value in core real estate investment portfolios. From alternatives to secondary markets, top funds are adapting to outperform in a shifting landscape.Key takeaways on evolving investor strategies: · Alternatives are reshaping core portfolios, with newer funds allocating heavily to data centers, seniors housing and single-family residential.· Operational expertise is a performance driver, particularly in shorter-lease-term asset types that require service-oriented models.· Smaller markets offer strategic upside, with investor focus shifting to high-growth, affordable areas like El Paso and West Palm Beach amid demographic and affordability trends.· Flexible fund structures allow managers to hold through market cycles and avoid forced sales in illiquid environments.· Benchmarking tools enhance insights into income vs. appreciation return potential and help investors measure returns.

In this episode, Sam Ashoo, MD interviews Evan Dvorin, MD about the dangers of short term steroid use.Background & Regional DifferencesDr. Dvorin's clinical journey from New England to New Orleans. Noticing increased use of corticosteroids for common conditions in the Southeast. Discussion of how steroid prescribing practices vary by region and setting.Inappropriate Steroid UseCommon conditions where steroids are often inappropriately prescribed (sinus infections, bronchitis, sciatica, rashes, plantar fasciitis, etc.). Trends showing increased steroid prescribing over time. Similar patterns observed in emergency, urgent care, and primary care settings.Risks and Side Effects of Short-Term Steroid UseShort-term steroids can cause significant side effects: infection, sepsis, bone fractures, thromboembolism, psychiatric effects, hyperglycemia. Dose-response relationship: higher doses and repeated use increase risks. Some side effects (e.g., bone loss) may persist beyond two months.Patient Communication & Shared Decision-MakingImportance of discussing risks with patients, tailored to individual risk factors (e.g., diabetes, psychiatric history, age). Strategies for educating patients and managing expectations. The role of patient education videos and resources.Impact of Provider Education & Quality MetricsOchsner Health's initiatives to reduce inappropriate steroid use. Use of CME, quality dashboards, and feedback to clinicians. Evidence that education and reporting can reduce unnecessary prescriptions.Special Populations & ScenariosConsiderations for pediatric patients and repeated dosing. Challenges when specialists recommend steroids for certain conditions (e.g., sciatica, neurosurgery cases). The need for evidence-based practice and inter-provider communication.Medical-Legal ConsiderationsLawsuits related to steroid side effects (e.g., fat atrophy, infection). Importance of documentation and informed consent.Alternatives & Symptom ManagementFocusing on treating the patient's most bothersome symptoms. Non-steroid options and the value of patient education about illness duration and expectations.ResourcesMention of Dr. Dvorin's educational video on corticosteroid side effects (available on YouTube). Reminder of EB Medicine's journals and resources for further learning.ConclusionKey takeaway: “Do no harm” and practice evidence-based medicine. Encouragement for clinicians to review their prescribing habits and educate patients.Ochsner "Side effects from corticosteroids" Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdMJ9HYxkck

Season 4, Episode 4: Jack Stone and Alex Gornik sit down with Brian Pieracci, Head of North American Private Real Estate Equity at Heitman, to examine why alternatives are reshaping commercial real estate portfolios and outperforming traditional core assets. Brian shares how Heitman pioneered allocations towards self-storage, medical offices, senior housing, and single-family rentals. He breaks down what drives demand in these sectors, the challenge facing office real estate, and how institutional investors are changing their strategies in response. Brian also explains Heitman's global approach to alternative assets and the importance of diversification in today's market. TOPICS 00:00 Meet Brian Pieracci 05:15 Early bets on alternatives 13:00 Office real estate vs alternatives 21:40 Self-storage and senior housing 29:30 Strategies for global expansion into alternative sectors 37:00 Balancing core, value-add, and alternative assets 44:30 What institutional investors demand from alternative investments 52:10 The future of CRE beyond the office Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Dr. Isaac Golden returns to share insights from his latest book Safe Immunization, Homeoprophylaxis and Vaccination: A 21st Century Solution. We talked about the rise of chronic illness in children, the hidden effects of vaccines that many parents don't recognize, and why he believes homeoprophylaxis offers a safe and effective alternative. Dr. Golden explained how studies support its use, the importance of parents making informed decisions without pressure, and how homeopathy has been applied in places like India during the COVID-19 pandemic. He also discussed his work with families seeking detox options for their children and how perceptions of health can often mask underlying issues. Episode Highlights: 05:06 - Reasons for writing new book on safe immunization 12:02 - Evidence for effectiveness of homeoprophylaxis 15:48 - Comparing chronic disease rates in vaccinated vs unvaccinated 20:24 - Relevance and timeliness of the new book 24:57 - Use of homeoprophylaxis in India during COV!D-19 29:37 - Genus epidemicus and homeoprophylaxis approaches 35:25 - Effectiveness of homeoprophylaxis remedies 38:52 - Criticism of "no jab, no pay" policies  41:44 - Dr. Golden's continued passion and vitality 44:55 - Detoxing apparently healthy children from vaccines 47:01 - Importance of rethinking health standards 54:06 - Overcoming skepticism about homeopathic immunization About my Guests: Dr. Isaac Golden, Ph.D., D.Hom., N.D., B.Ec.(Hon), has been a practicing homeopath since 1984 and is internationally recognized as a leading authority on homeoprophylaxis—the use of homeopathic medicines for disease prevention. After an early career in economics and taxation, he transitioned into natural medicine, where he has dedicated over four decades to clinical practice, research, and education. Dr. Golden served as President of the Victorian branch of the Australian Homoeopathic Association from 1992 to 1998, and in 1999 he was awarded the Association's Distinguished Service Award for his significant contributions to the profession in Australia. He has also been instrumental in homeopathic education, founding the Australasian College of Hahnemannian Homoeopathy and later the Homoeopathy International Online College, expanding access to quality training worldwide. A prolific author, Dr. Golden has written some of the most influential texts on homeopathy and homeoprophylaxis, including Vaccination & Homoeoprophylaxis? A Review of Risks and Alternatives, The Complete Practitioner's Manual of Homœoprophylaxis, and Vaccine Injured Children: A 21st Century Tragedy. His groundbreaking Ph.D. research at Swinburne University in 2004 was the first time a mainstream Australian university accepted a thesis on homeoprophylaxis, marking a historic step for the field. In his clinical practice, Dr. Golden specializes in chronic disease and the treatment of vaccine-injured children, particularly those on the autism spectrum. Currently, he continues his work as Deputy Chair and Research Advisor to the National Institute of Integrative Medicine's Ethics Committee, advancing integrative approaches to health and disease prevention. Find out more about Isaac Website: https://homstudy.au/ Email: homstudy@bigpond.com If you would like to support the Homeopathy Hangout Podcast, please consider making a donation by visiting www.EugenieKruger.com and click the DONATE button at the top of the site. Every donation about $10 will receive a shout-out on a future episode. Join my Homeopathy Hangout Podcast Facebook community here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/HelloHomies Follow me on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/eugeniekrugerhomeopathy/ Here is the link to my free 30-minute Homeopathy@Home online course: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqBUpxO4pZQ&t=438s Upon completion of the course - and if you live in Australia - you can join my Facebook group for free acute advice (you'll need to answer a couple of questions about the course upon request to join): www.facebook.com/groups/eughom                            

Fall can be full of cozy traditions — and it can also be a chance to point our families toward Jesus instead of fear. In this episode we share simple, Christ-centered ideas you can use at home or in your homeschool as meaningful Christian alternatives to halloween.You'll hear practical activities — everything from Reformation Day celebrations to service opportunities for your kids — and one “ready-to-use” idea to try this month.✅ Family Praise Night (dessert + songs + testimonies)✅ Night bags or luminaries with Bible verses to line your walkways✅ Heroes of the Faith costume idea and mini-presentations for kids✅ Harvest (Thanks) Tree, scripture scavenger hunts, and Service Night ideas✅ How we host a Reformation Day party and a ready-made Reformation unit studyGrab the Reformation Day Unit Study mentioned in the podcast: (use coupon code REF25 for the limited-time discount)Show Notes:Christian Alternatives to Halloween: Faith-Filled Fall Traditions for Your FamilyHey everyone, Kerry Beck here with Homeschool Coffee Break, where we help you stop the overwhelm so you could take a coffee break. We need a coffee break every once in a while.It is fall time. I got my fall background up here. I love fall. This morning, I went for a walk. I probably could have even put a jacket on, and I live in Texas, and it's still September. I am so excited. So, I don't know what your weather is like, but it has been getting cooler here as well.Today, what I want to do is talk to you about a time in the fall season that Christians often struggle with, and that is Halloween. What are we doing? I want to talk to you about some alternatives to Halloween.We are releasing this, and this Wednesday, we are going to have a Facebook party that will dive more into fall alternatives to Halloween. So I hope you will join me. It is in Facebook. There'll be some freebies in there, but there'll be some great resources as well.Halloween Doesn't Have to Be About Darkness or FearToday, what I want to share with you are some Christ-centered and some family-friendly alternatives that you can use in your family, in your home, and in your home school as well. And let's talk about fall traditions.If you are listening to this and there is a place to put a comment, leave a comment and let me know what's one of your fall traditions. We all have Christmas traditions, or Thanksgiving traditions. What are some traditions during the fall time?You know, I love the cooler weather. We did decorate pumpkins, and we still decorate pumpkins. My kids carved a pumpkin when they were younger. I remember one time I bought these big jewel stickers and bought one of those small little pumpkins for my two oldest granddaughters. They were probably like 2 and 4, 3 and 5, and they could just put those stickers all over wherever they wanted, and they had their own little decorated pumpkin, their jeweled pumpkin, we could say.What fall traditions do you want your kids to remember? When we lived in Idaho, we went apple picking, and then we would make apple cider right there. Some of y'all might go through those corn mazes. I've done that, not with my kids, but I've done it with Steve and with some adults as well. And then some of you might go to just a pumpkin patch. I know in Dallas, they have a beautiful arboretum completely decorated with all the fall stuff there is.So, what are some family traditions you might have for fall?Christ-Centered Alternatives to HalloweenNow let's move on to Christ-centered alternatives to Halloween. You know, the world, it seems like, has hijacked all Hallows' Eve. But we can take it back for holiness and for light.It is a dark holiday now, let's be honest, but we stand for the light, the light of Jesus Christ. And so, let's talk about some alternative things you might do during October, during the last week of October, and how you could really focus on the light of the world.Family Praise Night: Maybe just have some families over and have a family praise night, where everyone brings a dessert, and y'all sing some songs and share testimonies of God's work in your family.Light Bags: Maybe you could do like the light bags, and everyone in your neighborhood just gets the little sandwich bags, and they can decorate it, maybe even cut holes if you want, and put a candle, or if you don't want to do a candle, you could put those little electric candles in there. Then line them up on your sidewalk, or line them up across the front of your house as well. You might decorate them with Bible verses if you want.Heroes of the Faith Costume: Maybe everyone chooses a Bible character and dresses up as a Bible character, and you come ready to tell at least one little fact each child does about the person that they have dressed up. So, they're going to be learning, and they get to dress up as well.Harvest of Blessings Night: I have done this, and I do not have a picture of it. We took a big piece of brown paper wrap paper, and I just drew a tree with branches, but no leaves. Then we cut out leaves out of orange, yellow, brown, those colors, and each leaf, you would write a blessing that you have. You could start it in October and continue it into November during Thanksgiving as well. Be our blessings tree, or our thanks tree. Add to it all season long. And then, at Thanksgiving, be able to sit down and read through some of the blessings that you've had in the past two months.Scripture Scavenger Hunt: You could do a scripture scavenger hunt, where you hide verses around the house, or around the yard, and maybe tied to a little prize or a little treat. But each verse is connected to some themes, the theme of light, the theme of courage, or the theme of God's protection.Service Night: I love this idea, it's called Service Night. Be a light in your community. Maybe you bake some cookies, and you are the light to maybe our first responders that are around there. You could put little verses tied onto some little Ziplocs, like you could put some cookies in there, and put some verses in there that go along with Jesus being the light. So, this teaches our kids the joy of giving instead of always getting.Celebrating Reformation Day: Our Family TraditionI want to share a story of something that we did personally, and that was Reformation Day. We did, I guess most of the ones we did were lunches. We did it at lunchtime, and we celebrated Reformation Day, October 31st, All Hallows' Eve. It's the eve of All Hallows Day on November 1st.And where did this all come about? Now, let me just say, whether you are Catholic, or Protestant, I don't really care. You still need to know what history has to say. I am... we grew up... we lean... we are Protestant, and we taught our kids the Protestant faith. But they still learned the Catholic faith. They learned about it. I wanted them to be able to think through any of those situations, anything like that. So, regardless of what your perspective and your theology is, I think it's important that we share this with our kids.The Story of Martin Luther and the 95 ThesesWe begin with Martin Luther, because on October 31st in the 1500s, he was a German monk and a teacher. He loved God, and he wanted everyone to understand the Bible. But the church at that time was asking people to pay for their forgiveness, like, give money. They are called indulgences. And many people were very confused about it, and actually some were upset. The poor people felt like they got wrangled around.And so, Martin Luther wrote these statements, 95 statements, and we call them 95 Theses. And explain what he thought the church should fix, and how it should work, and how we needed to rethink some of the things that the church was doing. I'm going to read a few of these. These are not complaints, they are just questions and ideas.Salvation is a gift from God, not bought with money. Repentance means changing your heart, not just giving money. The Pope cannot forgive sins with money. Christ followers should focus on faith and good works, not paying for forgiveness. Preachers should teach God's Word. Money cannot cleanse the soul, only God can. The church should help the poor, not profit from their guilt. Christians should study the Bible for themselves.That was a new concept. We have Bibles everywhere. And yet, they didn't even have it in their own language. That was William Tyndale, was one of the first people that starts translating the Latin Bible, the Vulgate, into English. Eventually, they started translating from the Greek and the Hebrew. He was on the run and ended up dying, but he was one of the first men trying to translate the actual Bible into the English language. The authority of the Bible is higher than the authority of the Pope.On October 31st, 1517, he took this paper and he went and nailed it to the door of the Wittenberg church. The church door, in that time, acted like a bulletin board. So when there were any announcements or notices, people could just go nail them up there, and that's what Martin Luther did. And people began to read these theses, and they shared them widely. This started a movement called the Reformation.Why Reformation Day Matters TodayNow, there's a lot more that goes over. That is just a simple view. You can teach it to your kids at different levels, but I think it's important. Why is this important? Because we need to sometimes question our church leaders, even today. You should always go back to the Bible and use the Bible. I mean, if they're doing something that goes against the Bible, then that is something you need to consider. Maybe that's not the place that you need to be attending church.This also eventually helped people read and understand the Bible for themselves in their own language, and it changed church history forever. No matter where you are, and I sort of see the church in Roman Catholicism, Greek Orthodox, and then the Protestant movement. I want to say it was protesting, and that's how we get the word Protestant, protesting Catholics and Roman Catholics, if I remember correctly.You see, the big picture is God used this reformation to bring truth, encourage and revival to that society. It actually makes me think a little bit about today. God is using something evil to bring about truth and courage and revival here in the United States. And hopefully around the world.I mentioned that last week, but you know, you could go and look. There are martyrs that died for their faith. You could go through and study some of them. I think I have the book here. There is Book of Martyrs, but this is a kid's version of Trial and Triumph, and this is stories from church history. This would be a great place for you to get started in sharing stories, and some of them are martyrs, and some of them are people that were just strong and courageous in their faith, and so that would be something that could tie in. That would be an alternative to Halloween, if you want to dive deep into this.How to Host Your Own Reformation Day PartyAnother thing, and this is what we did, we studied this time period, and then we had a Reformation Day party. We invited families, every family was responsible for bringing one food dish and hosting a booth. That booth could be a game, it could be a craft.We had some stairs up at the front of my house, and so, one of them had them, like, climbing, because at that time in the cathedral, they had to crawl up these stairs when they would go to Rome. We had people making candles at that time, because you needed candles for life. There are all different things you could do. We would always sing some songs, we might even act out a play based on one of our reformers, depending on who we were choosing, whether I think we... I know we did Martin Luther, John Calvin, Martin Bucer, any of those, and then we would always fellowship over a meal.And so that's really cool. How about you weave Reformation history into your home school, even with just one activity? You know, I think it's really important. You could host a party. It's not that hard. You don't have to do all of it. Spread the love and let other people come and bring activities for your kids. Our first one, my kids even dressed up. They made costumes, and they dressed up like a woman back in that time period, or a man.So, enjoy your family fall traditions that creates memories, look for alternatives to Halloween that point your family to Christ, and then celebrate Reformation Day to root your kids in church history. And I would encourage you to plan right now, this week, first week of October, what is one thing that you will do in October that's an alternative to Halloween, if that's something you want to do?Ready-to-Go Reformation Day ResourcesIf you'd like something that's a ready-to-go activities, I have something called a Reformation Day unit study. I pulled it together. You're going to get a book list, you're going to get stories about it, you get a slide presentation on different reformers. We have videos as well. There are recipes in there, and you know, a unit study takes the topic, and then we provide all the different subjects, history, and science, and art, and cooking, and Bible, and character, and literature. You get a little bit of all of that, and then you can pick and choose what it is you want for your family.If you happen to be listening to this, the week that this episode is published, this unit study is on sale, and so you can use the link below to be able to save some money on that Reformation Unit Study. You can get it at any time. People have bought it at all times of the year. But, right now, if you'd like to save a little money, just use the link in the coupon code CODE REF25, and you'll be able to save a little bit money as well.Hey, if you have a comment or question, reach out to me, you know, email me, DM me. If you have gotten just one little tip out of here, would you please share this with another Christian mom or another homeschool mom to help them, that would mean the world to me. Or, leave a 5-star review, because that means we can get this out to more and more people. Moms don't have the time to pull all this together, and they just need some creative ideas.Hey, thanks for spending time with me. I am Kerry Beck with Homeschool Coffee Break. We'll talk to you next time.

Have you ever wondered -- How much do I really need to retire early and am I on track? How do I balance all of my financial goals? How can I help my children be financially secure? Tune into Season 3 of What Should I Do With My Money, hosted by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Jamie Roô to hear real-life stories about these and other big financial questions.

Our China Healthcare Analyst Jack Lin discusses how China's biotech surge is reshaping healthcare, investment and innovation worldwide.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Jack Lin: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jack Lin, from Morgan Stanley's China Healthcare Team. Today, the boom in China biotech – and how it's not just a headline for China-focused investors, but a story that touches all of us. It is Friday, October 3rd at 2pm in Hong Kong. Many people might not realize this but some of the next generation healthcare innovation is being developed far from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The medicines you rely on, treatment plans that could shape your family's future, even investment opportunity that can grow your savings. They are all increasingly influenced by China's rapidly evolving biotech sector, which is transitioning from traditional generics manufacturing into the global innovation ecosystem. In fact, China's biotech industry is set to become a major player in the global innovation ecosystem. By 2040, we project China's originated assets could represent about a third of U.S. FDA approvals – up dramatically from just 5 percent today. And the question isn't if China's biotech will matter, but how global patients could benefit; and how consumers and investors worldwide might engage with its impact.What's driving this transformation? Three key components are driving the globalization of China originated drug innovations: cost, accessibility, and innovation quality. Lower cost in China's biotech sector enables more efficient development. Clinical trial quality is improving with regulatory pathways becoming more streamlined, promoting accessibility of China innovation for global markets. Finally, innovation in China's biotech sector is gaining momentum with more regionally developed medicines now eyeing market approval from leading overseas agencies like the U.S. FDA and EMA.This is all to say China is on track to become a key force on the global biotech stage. That said, right now we're also at a crossroads moment as geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China pose potential risks to the flow of innovation. Despite these uncertainties, we see a likely outcome of co-opetition, a blend of competition and collaboration, as global pharma grapples with the dual imperatives of innovation and resilience. Of course, this rapid evolution brings both opportunities and challenges. It's prompting stakeholders around the world to rethink their strategies and collaborations in this shifting landscape of global medical innovation. As the China biotech industry evolves, the choices made by investors, policy makers, and healthcare communities, both within China and globally, will determine the therapies of the future. It is truly a dynamic space, and we'll continue to bring you updates. Thanks for listening to our thoughts on the market. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review, wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleagues today.

Our Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discusses how China's new approach to economic development is transforming domestic industries and reshaping the global investment landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Today – a consequential shift in China's economic policy is set to reshape domestic markets and send ripples across the global economy.It's Thursday, October 2nd at 2pm in Hong Kong.If you're an investor, it's important to understand China's new approach to economic development. The government's policies to drive a recovery from an economic slump are changing the rules of competition, profitability and growth. This affects Chinese companies, and in turn global supply chains and investment flows.Let's start with the term involution – what is it? In China, involution describes a cycle of excessive competition—think companies fighting for market share by slashing prices, ramping up production, and eroding profits, often to the point where nobody wins. The government's anti-involution campaign is a direct response to this problem.What factors prompted the launch of this anti-involution initiative? Since 2021, China has faced mounting deflationary pressures—falling prices, a housing market slump, and a surge in manufacturing investment that led to overcapacity. The September 2024 policy pivot began to address these issues, and in mid-2025 the government launched a more targeted anti-involution campaign. This phase focuses on reducing excessive competition and restoring pricing power through market-based consolidation.As we assess the potential effectiveness of China's anti-involution policy, our base case projects China's return on equity (ROE) to reach 13.3 percent by 2030, up from a cycle low of 10 percent in May 2024 and 11.6 percent by July 2025. In a bullish scenario, decisive reforms and demand-side stimulus could push ROE as high as 16.3 percent.We also expect earnings growth to accelerate, with our base case showing an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent in 2025, rising to 11.1 percent by 2027. We forecast valuations to normalize towards 12–13x forward price-to-earnings, in line with emerging market peers, but this could re-rate higher if reforms succeed.In terms of investment opportunities, we believe the EV Batteries industry will benefit the most from the Chinese government's anti-involution efforts. It's got strong policy support, cutting-edge technology, and a market that's consolidating fast—meaning the days of low-quality and excess capacity are fading. We're seeing a shift toward long-term, sustainable growth. Steel and Cement are industries where the state has a strong hand and capacity controls are well established. These factors help stabilize the market and open the door for steady gains. Finally, Airlines. While the industry has faced persistent losses, there isn't a[n] oversupply of seats, and regulatory coordination is strong. With the right reforms, Airlines could be poised for a significant turnaround.The sectors best positioned to benefit from China's anti-involution strategy are more domestically oriented. But this policy is bound to have global implications. And the ripples will likely extend to global supply chains, especially in Materials, Chemicals and Autos.Looking ahead, the pace and success of anti-involution will depend on further structural reforms, demand-side support, and the ability to digest industrial credit risks gradually. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could bring more clarity on tax, social welfare, and local government incentives.So, what should investors be paying attention to? China's anti-involution campaign is more than a policy tweak—it's a recalibration of how the country balances growth, innovation, and sustainability. The key is to track sector-level reforms, watch for signs of consolidation, and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and policy tailwinds.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

On today's episode, Aaron Mulvihill, Global Alternatives Strategist, is joined by Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research at JP Morgan. Together, they discuss private credit, an asset class that has attracted significant investor interest due to its higher yields compared to traditional fixed income. The conversation explores the factors driving growth in the private credit industry, examines how yields compare to public fixed income and where they may be headed and highlights the key risks and opportunities in this evolving market. For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley's chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed's response. They also discuss India's path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and I think that's been your forecast for quite some time – is that the U.S. was going to slow down a lot. Are we seeing that in the data? Is the U.S. economy slowing down or is everything just fine? How are you thinking about it? And what's the evidence that there's a slowdown and what are maybe the counterarguments that there's not that much of a slowdown? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the data doesn't support much of a slowdown. So yes, the economy did moderate in the first half of the year. I think the smart thing to do is average through Q1 and Q2 outcomes [be]cause there was a lot of volatility in trade and inventories. If you do that, the economy grew at about a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first half of the year, down from about 2.5 percent last year. So, some moderation there, but not a lot. We would argue that that probably isn't a tariff story. We would've expected tariffs and immigration policies to have greater downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. But to your question, incoming data in the third quarter has been really strong, and we're tracking growth somewhere around 3 percent right now.So, there's not a lot of evidence in hand at present that tariffs are putting significant downward pressure on growth. Seth Carpenter: So those growth numbers that you cite are on spending, which is normally the way we calculate things like GDP, consumption spending. But the labor market, I mean, non-farm payroll reports really have been quite weak. How do you reconcile that intellectual tension on the one hand spending holding up? On the other hand, that job creation [is] pretty, pretty weak. Michael Gapen: Yeah. I think the way that we would reconcile it is when we look at the data for the non-financial corporate sector, what appears to be clear is that non-labor costs have risen and tariffs would reside in that. And the data does show that what would be called unit non-labor costs. So, the cost per unit of output attributable to everything other than labor that rose a lot. What corporates apparently did was they reduced labor costs. And they absorbed some of it in lower profitability. What they didn't do was push price a lot. We'll see how long this tension can go on. It may be that corporates are in the early stages of passing through inflation, so we will see more inflation further out in a slowdown in spending. Or it may be that corporates are deciding that they will bear most of the burden of the tariffs, and cost control and efficiencies will be the order of the day. And maybe the Fed is right to be worried about downside risk to employment. So, I reconcile it that way. I think corporates have absorbed most of the tariff shock to date, and we're still in the early stages of seeing whether or not they will be able to pass it along to consumers. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then let's think about the Fed, the central bank. Yesterday, I talked to Chetan about the Bank of Japan. There reflation is real. Talked to Jens yesterday about the ECB where inflation has come down. So, those other developed market economies, the prescriptions for monetary policy are pretty straightforward. The Fed, on the other hand, they're in a bit of a bind in that regard. What do you think the Fed is trying to achieve here? How would you describe their strategy? Michael Gapen: I would describe their strategy as a recalibration, which is, I think, you know, technical monetary policy jargon for – where their policy stance is now; is not correct to balance risks to the economy. Earlier this year, the Fed thought that the primary risk was to persistent inflation. Boy, the effective tariff rate was rising quickly and that should pass due to inflation. We should be worried about upside risk to inflation. And then employment decelerated rapidly and has stayed low now for four consecutive months. Yes, labor supply has come down, but there's also a lot of evidence that labor demand has come down. So, I think what the Fed is saying is the balance of risks have become more balanced. They need to worry about inflation, but now they also need to worry about the labor market. So having a restrictive policy stance in their mind doesn't make sense. The Fed's not arguing – we need to get below neutral. We need to get easy. They're just saying we probably need to move in the direction of neutral. That will allow us to respond better if inflation stays firm or the labor market weakens. So, a recalibration meaning, you know, we think two more rate cuts into year end get a little bit closer to neutral, and that puts them in a better spot to respond to the evolving economic conditions. Seth Carpenter: All right. That makes a lot of sense. We can't end a conversation this year about the Fed, though, without touching on the fact that the White House has been putting a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve trying to get Chair Powell and his committee to push interest rates substantially lower than where they are now. Michael Gapen: You've noticed? Seth Carpenter: I've noticed. From my understanding, a lot of people in markets have noticed as well. There's been some turnover among policy makers. We have a new member of the Board of Governors of the Fed. This discussion about Federal Reserve independence. How do you think about it? Is Chair Powell changing policy based on political pressure? Michael Gapen: I don't think so. I think there's enough evidence in the labor market data to support the Fed's shift in stance. We have certainly highlighted immigration controls, what they would mean for the labor force. And how that means even a slowing, growing economy could keep the unemployment rate low. But it's also fair to say labor demand has come down. If labor demand were still very strong, you might see job openings higher, you might see vacancies higher. You may even see faster wage growth. So, I think the Fed's right to look at the labor market and say, ‘Okay, on the surface, it looks like a no hire, no fire labor market. We can live with that, but there are some layoffs underneath. There are signs of weakness. Slack is getting created slowly.' So, I think the Fed has solid ground to stand on in terms of shifting their view. But you're right, that looking forward into 2026 with the end of Powell's term as chair and likely turnover in other areas of the board. Whether the Fed maintains a conventional reaction function or one that's perhaps more politically driven remains an open question – and I think is a risk for investors. Seth Carpenter: I want to change things up a lot here. Chetan, yesterday you and I talked about China. We talked about Japan. Two really big economies that I think are well known to investors.Another economy in Asia that you cover is India. For a long time, we have said India was going to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. Do you still see it to be the case? That India's got a really bright growth outlook? And in the current circumstance with tariffs going on, how do you think India is fairing vis-a-vis U.S. tariffs? Chetan Ahya: So yes, Seth, we are still optimistic about India's growth outlook. Having said that, you know, there are two issues that the economy has been going through. Number one is that the domestic demand had slowed down because of previous tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. And at the same time, we have now seen this trade tensions, which will slow global trade. But also, directly India will be affected by the fact that the U.S. has imposed 50 percent tariff on close to 60 percent of India's exports to the U.S. So, both these issues are affecting the outlook in the near term. We still don't have clarity on what happens on trade tensions, but what we have seen is that the government has really worked quite hard to get the economy going from domestic demand perspective. And so, they have taken up three sets of policy actions. They have reduced household income tax. The central bank has cut interest rates because inflation has been in control. And at the same time, they have now just recently announced reduction in Goods and Services Tax, which is akin to like consumption tax. And so, these three policy actions together we think will drive domestic demand growth from the fourth quarter of this year itself. It will still be not back up to strong growth levels. And for that we still need that solution to trade policy uncertainty. But I think there will be a significant recovery coming up in the next few months. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks for that, Chetan. It's such an interesting story going on there in India. Well, Michael, Chetan, thank the three of you for joining me today in this conversation. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Recently I had to learn APA citation. Oof. It was a heavy lift, after a few decades with MLA. It gave me a refreshed sense of how overwhelming students likely find MLA. I found myself thinking, why can't I just link my sources in parentheses? Why can't I just reference the authors who informed my thinking inside my sentences? Why on earth does it matter if I use a comma or a semicolon, put the page first or put the page second? Why does APA even exist? Yeah, all the things our students probably think when we roll out our 26 page MLA redux, which doesn't even cover it all. And that's only the beginning of student frustration when it comes time for a research paper. Now, I struggle a little bit in recommending these alternatives to the research paper today, partly because my husband regularly references the research paper he wrote in high school as a landmark in his academic life. He loved it. He was so proud of his work. It set him on a path that eventually led all the way to a PHD program at UPenn. The other night, though, when we were debating the relative merits of 5 paragraph essays and research papers, he did mention that the rest of the class did not exactly excel on that research paper assignment, if the comments his teacher made as she passed back the papers were any sign. John Warner, in his book, Why They Can't Write, posits a possible reason for that lack of excelling. “The writing-related tasks we frequently visit upon students would prove difficult for even highly experienced writers. Writing on subjects with which we're newly familiar, in forms that are foreign, and addressed to audiences that are either undefined or unknown (other than 'for the teacher') bears little resemblance to the way we write for the world” (27). In other words, we often ask students to try and make themselves an expert on something they're not that interested in for a research paper, use a citation format that is next thing to a foreign language for them, tie themselves in knots trying to figure out how to convey what they've learned in an orderly way that generally leaves little room for their own voice or opinions, and do it all just to show their teacher, for a grade. Of course, that is how it has seemingly always been done. And after all, we survived. I remember learning MLA format in 7th grade, and creating my first research notecards. I dutifully scrawled quotation after quotation on those notecards, putting all the source information on the back. I can't remember what I wrote about though, for that 7th grade research paper. Literally nothing comes to mind. The first research assignment that I do remember came in 11th grade, when I participated in Minnesota's National History Day, making it to the State Finals with my project "The Column: Supporting Architecture through the Ages." I remember my architectural timeline, supported on a bridge of heavy white dominos across the front of my display board. I remember learning about Ionic, Corinthian, and Doric columns, and I've seen them all over the world in my travels since. I remember my virtual explorations of Athens, as I searched through various texts trying to figure out how the column worked, why it was so special, and what it looked like in buildings all over ancient Greece. I remember presenting my project in Duluth, sensing that I barely made it through with so many other great projects on hand, learning from the quality around me, and improving it before heading for Minneapolis. I remember going to Valley Fair, the amusement park I had had my eye on for years, after the state competition, with my Dad. It. Was. Awesome. My National History Day Project let me choose any topic of interest to me that fit whatever the general theme was that year. It let me use my love of design, color, lettering, and layout in addition to my research skills. It gave me an authentic audience to consider. I think I still had to use MLA citation format, but I was so busy with everything else that I wasn't about to let cracking that code stop me. I had a competition to win. (Not that I did, but I sure had fun trying). When I look back on my academic and professional life so far, research in service of real purpose, in an arena that truly interested me, with the ability to include modes that I enjoy working in, for an audience I truly hoped to impact, made all the difference in igniting my best work. So what if we warm our students up to research with activities, projects, and shorter writing pieces that focus more on elements like these, and less on notecards? What if, instead of jumping into huge MLA research papers with only one person - us - as the intended audience, we cast a wider net around the area of research and explore ways to give students more agency over topic, mode, and audience? This introduction is getting out of hand. Thirteen paragraphs in and we haven't played the music yet. It's lucky I'm not writing a five paragraph essay. So without further ado, let's talk about five alternatives to the research paper that help students practice key skills they can draw on later, if and when they choose a path that requires them to write lengthy academic research papers with full citations in APA or MLA. Sign up for the Full (Free) AI PBL Research Unit: https://sparkcreativity.kartra.com/page/aipbl  For a deep dive on the research carousel, check out episode 163, a case study with educator Jane Wisdom: https://nowsparkcreativity.com/2022/10/case-study-a-meaningful-21st-century-research-project.html  Sources Cited Warner, John. Why They Can't Write: Killing the 5 Paragraph Essay and other Necessities. John Hopkins University Press: 2020. Go Further:  Explore alllll the Episodes of The Spark Creativity Teacher Podcast. Get my popular free hexagonal thinking digital toolkit Join our community, Creative High School English, on Facebook. Come hang out on Instagram. Enjoying the podcast? Please consider sharing it with a friend, snagging a screenshot to share on the ‘gram, or tapping those ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ to help others discover the show. Thank you! 

In this episode of The Birth Lounge Podcast, HeHe sits down with clinical pharmacist Dr. Michaela Wachal to unpack the controversy surrounding Tylenol (acetaminophen) use in pregnancy and its potential links to autism and other neurodevelopmental concerns. Together, they dive into what the research actually says (and doesn't say), why transparency and informed consent are so important, and how to navigate decisions around medications in pregnancy with confidence. Dr. Wachal also highlights the bigger picture, like how genetics, environmental toxins, and even maternal stress can play a role in outcomes, and why caring for yourself is just as critical as any prescription. This conversation is packed with nuance, evidence, and practical takeaways to help you feel informed, empowered, and ready to advocate for yourself as you make decisions about your pregnancy care. 00:00 Introduction and Media Misrepresentation 01:05 Personal Story and Birth Lounge App 02:16 Empowering Prenatal Conversations 05:26 Emergency Use Authorization Episode 07:34 Interview with Dr. Michaela Wachal 09:14 Medication Safety in Pregnancy 12:37 Pharmaceutical Industry Failures 15:20 Personal Journey and Advocacy 18:55 Questioning Medical Norms 21:15 Tylenol and Toxins 23:34 Aluminum in Vaccines 27:32 The Importance of Transparency 37:05 Advocating for Education and Understanding 37:51 The Power of Asking Questions 40:21 Nesting and Preparing for Baby 43:17 Managing Fevers During Pregnancy 52:01 Environmental Toxins and Health 01:00:41 Therapies and Support for Children on the Spectrum 01:09:27 Final Thoughts and Encouragement   Guest Bio: Michaela Wachal, PharmD, CSP, is a clinical pharmacist, Certified Specialty Pharmacist, and Clinical Accreditation Manager with nearly a decade of experience in specialty pharmacy. She holds a Doctor of Pharmacy degree from the University of Nebraska Medical Center and a Bachelor of Science in Biochemistry from Doane University. Throughout her career, she's specialized in complex conditions including oncology, fertility, endocrinology, immunology, mental health, and inflammatory diseases—always with a passion for improving patient care, optimizing healthcare systems, and empowering women in medicine. Michaela is also a mom of three, including one child with autism, ADHD, and anxiety, which ignited her deep interest in neurodiversity, integrative health, and individualized medicine. After navigating her own family's challenges, she began researching functional and evidence-based approaches to support children and families living with complex needs. Online, Michaela shares insights from scientific studies on autism, ADHD, vaccines, autoimmune conditions, toxins, and more, always with a focus on helping parents make informed, evidence-based choices. Her work blends professional expertise with personal passion, making her a trusted voice in both the pharmacy world and the parenting community.   INSTAGRAM: Connect with HeHe on IG  Connect with Dr. Wachal on IG    BIRTH EDUCATION: Join The Birth Lounge here for judgment-free childbirth education that prepares you for an informed birth and how to confidently navigate hospital policy to have a trauma-free labor experience!   Download The Birth Lounge App for birth & postpartum prep delivered straight to your phone!   RESEARCH MENTIONED: 2021 there's a call for action published supported by 91 scientists, clinicians and public health professionals across the globe recommended that pregnant women should be cautioned at the beginning of pregnancy to forego APAP unless it is medically indicated and to minimize the exposure by using the lowest effective dose for shortest possible time https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34556849/   Boston Birth cohort published in 2020 looked at acetaminophen metabolites in cord blood samples collected at birth and unchanged acetaminophen levels were detected in all cord plasma samples and acetaminophen burden was associated with higher odds of ADHD  and ASD daignosis there was a 2.3 to 3.5 increased risk for ADHD and 1.6 to 4.1 increased risk for ASD https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31664451/   Recently in August Harvard did an analysis using the Navigation Guide methodology that supports evidence consistent with an association between acetaminophen exposure during pregnancy and increased incidence of Neurodevelopmental disorders. This included 46 studies with 27 reporting positive associations with the higher quality studies more likely to show positive correlations https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-025-01208-0   Nurses Health Study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30923825/ Spanish birth cohort where acetaminophen exposure was associated with more hyperactivity/impulsivity https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27353198/   In 2018 there was a review that showed that 9 prospective cohort studies that all suggested an association between prenatal APAP exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes - ADHD, ASD or lower IQ and longer duration was associated with increased risk https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29341895/   2022 a prospective cohort study in Pennsylvania looked at 2,423 moms using data and children who were exposed to APAP during pregnancy scored higher for child behaviors, sleep problems and attention problems  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36170224/ Keywords: Tylenol pregnancy, acetaminophen pregnancy, Tylenol autism risk, pregnancy medication safety, prenatal care, evidence-based pregnancy, maternal health, neurodevelopment, pregnancy decision making, informed consent pregnancy, pregnancy medications, Dr. Michaela Wachal, Birth Lounge podcast, pregnancy self-care, pregnancy toxins

durée : 00:58:25 - Le Cours de l'histoire - par : Xavier Mauduit, Maïwenn Guiziou, Jeanne Coppey - Pendant l'entre-deux-guerres, il n'existe pas de distinction entre médecine strictement rationnelle et médecine alternative. La médecine holiste, qui défend une vision globale du patient, tient compte de sa psychologie, de son environnement mais aussi de sa spiritualité. - réalisation : Thomas Beau - invités : Léo Bernard Historien, enseignant à l'Université d'Angers

Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Setting up your 401 (k) can feel overwhelming, especially when you are faced with a long list of investment options. To make it easier, we welcome Zina Kumok, financial advisor and money expert, to explain how to choose wisely. Zina covers the importance of the employer match, diversification, and automation so your retirement savings can grow without stress. In the second half, we sit down with Jessica and Corey Fick of The Fioneers, who reached Coast FIRE in their early 30s. They share how they built a million-dollar portfolio, left corporate jobs that no longer fit their lives, and created a business that supports the lifestyle they truly want. If you are just starting out with your 401k or aiming for Coast FIRE, this episode will give you both the tactical steps and the long-term inspiration to succeed. RESOURCES⁠Sponsors, Deals, and Partners that Support the Show Sponsors, Deals & Partners – See all current offers in one place. MKM RESOURCES Own Your Time – Pre-order my first book today! MKM Coaching – Get 1-on-1 support with your family finance journey. Coast FIRE Calculator – Find out when you can slow down or stop investing for retirement. Mortgage Payoff Calculator – See how fast you can become mortgage free. YouTube – Subscribe for free to watch videos of episodes and interviews. RECOMMENDED RESOURCES (SPONSORS & AFFILIATES) Monarch Money – Best budget app for families & couples. Empower – Free portfolio tracker. Crew – HYSA banking built for families (Get an extra 0.5% APY with my partner link). Ethos – Affordable term life insurance. Trust & Will – Convenient estate planning made easy. Podcast Chapters 00:00 – Why your 401k match is part of your compensation 00:28 – Welcome and overview of today's episode 01:00 – Introduction to Zina Kumok 02:15 – What a 401k is and why it matters 03:30 – Understanding employer matches 05:00 – Choosing investments in your 401k 06:30 – Risk tolerance and diversification explained 08:30 – Automating your 401k contributions 09:20 – Alternatives to a 401k (IRA, HSA, brokerage) 13:00 – The importance of capturing your employer match 14:30 – Where to connect with Zina Kumok 15:17 – Coast FIRE couple spotlight: Jessica and Corey Fick 16:20 – The Coast FIRE Five 18:00 – Their journey from early investing to Coast FIRE 22:30 – How burnout pushed them to redesign their lives 25:00 – Reaching Coast FIRE and slowing contributions 27:00 – What their portfolio looks like today 29:30 – Household income range over 15 years 31:30 – Growing investments without new contributions 33:30 – How they control expenses in New England 35:20 – Advice for others pursuing Coast FIRE 37:10 – Why Coast FIRE is more approachable than full FIRE 40:00 – Where to learn more from The Fioneers HOW WE MAKE MONEY + DISCLAIMER This show may contain affiliate links or links from our advertisers where we earn a commission, direct payment or products. Opinions are the creators alone. Information shared on this podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered as professional advice. Marriage Kids and Money (www.marriagekidsandmoney.com) is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to amazon.com. CREDITS Podcast Artwork: Liz Theresa Editor: Johnny Sohl Podcast Support: Andy Hill Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, we do NOT discuss any politics. We do, however, discuss super-dosing creatine, burpee alternatives, non-meat protein sources, current favorite exercises, and more...We hope you enjoy this episode and if you'd like to join us in The Online Fitness Business Mentorship, you can grab your seat at https://www.fitnessbusinessmentorship.comThank you!-J & MWATCH this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kQ0i4j5atzITIMESTAMPS:(00:00) — Intro(00:11) — Social media detoxes(05:22) — The impact of bot farms on society(09:23) — Mike's new gym(11:57) — Jordan's no-scroll challenge & why his schedule is so unusual(21:19) — Benefits of super-dosing creatine(26:37) — Our current favorite exercises(32:51) — Non-meat protein sources(35:58) — The importance of monitoring markers of health(40:24) — The balance of health optimization & quality of life(44:50) — Burpee alternatives(47:21) — The happiest people in the world are not on the internet(53:27) — Wrap-upFollow the show on social:YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@personaltrainerpodcastInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/personaltrainerpodcastTikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@personaltrainerpodcastJoin our email list & get our FREE '30 Ways To Build A Successful Online Coaching Business' manual: https://bit.ly/30O2l6pCheck out our new book 'Eat It!' at https://www.eatit-book.comIf you have any questions you'd like to have answered on the show, shoot us an email at info@fitnessbusinessmentorship.comIf you enjoyed the episode, we would sincerely appreciate it if you left a five-star review.----Post-Production by: David Margittai | In Post MediaWebsite: https://www.inpostmedia.comEmail: david@inpostmedia.com© 2025 Michael Vacanti & Jordan Syatt

Is your diet transition away from meats going pretty well, but now you're stuck on dairy? You're trying but it's a challenge because you've been heavy on dairy your whole life and have been used to lathering your toast, soda crackers, baked potatoes and pancakes with butter. So now you need a replacement. But you've noticed different commercial plant-based butter products sold at the grocery store. The question is, should you use these or are there other alternatives?   Yes, there are other alternatives and I want to tell you about them! In this episode, let's look together at 5 natural, healthier whole food plant-based substitutes you can use instead of regular butter your meals or in baking. Join me inside!     Join -> Plant-Powered Life Transformation Course: www.plantnourished.com/ppltcourse Contact -> healthnow@plantnourished.com Learn -> www.plantnourished.com Connect with Community -> www.facebook.com/groups/beginnerplantbaseddietsuccess Get Free 15-Minute Strategy Call -> www.plantnourished.com/strategycall Free Resource -> Quick Start Grocery Guide for Plant-Based Essentials: www.plantnourished.com/groceryguide     Have a question about plant-based diets that you would like answered on the Plant Based Eating Made Easy Podcast? Send it by email (healthnow@plantnourished.com) or submit it by a voice message here: www.speakpipe.com/plantnourished

Despite large deficits, booming capital expenditures and a looser regulatory environment, the Fed appears poised to cut rates further to support the slowing labor market. This could set the stage for a level of corporate risk-taking not seen since the 1990s.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the forces that could heat up corporate activity in 2026 – if the labor market can hold up.It's Monday, September 29th at 2pm in London.Bill Martin, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve in the 50's and 60's, famously joked that “it was the Fed's job to take away the punch bowl just when the party is getting good.” That quote seems relevant because a host of trends are pointing to a pretty lively scene over the next 12 months. First, the U.S. government is spending significantly more than it's taking in. This deficit running at about 6.5 percent of the size of the whole economy is providing stimulus. It's only been larger during the great financial crisis, COVID and World War II. It's punch. Next to the corporate sector. As you've heard us discuss on this podcast, we here at Morgan Stanley think that AI related spending could amount to one of the largest waves of investment ever recorded – dwarfing the shale boom of the 2010s and the telecommunication spending of the late 1990s. Importantly, we think this spending is ramping up right now. Morgan Stanley estimates that investments by large tech companies will increase by 70 percent this year, and between 2024 and 2027, we think this spending is going to go up by two and a half times. Note that this doesn't even account for the enormous amount of power and electricity infrastructure that's going to be need to be built to support all this. Hence more economic punch. Finally, there's a deregulatory push. My bank research colleagues believe that lower capital requirements for U.S. banks could boost their balance sheet capacity by an additional $1 trillion in risk weighted terms. And a more supportive regulatory environment for mergers should help activity there continue to grow. Again, more punch.Heavy government spending, heavy corporate spending, more bank lending and risk taking capacity. And what's next from the Federal Reserve? Well, they're not exactly taking the punch away. We think that the Fed is set to cut rates five more times to a midpoint of two and 7/8ths. The Fed's supportive efforts are based on a real fear that labor markets are already starting to slow, despite the other supportive factors mentioned previously. And a broad weakening of the economy would absolutely warrant such support from the Fed. But if growth doesn't slow – large deficits, booming capital expenditure, a looser regulatory environment, and now Fed rate cuts – would all support even more corporate risk taking possibly in a way that we haven't seen since the 1990s. For credit, that boom would be preferable to a sharp slowing of the economy, but it comes with its own risks.Expect talk of this scenario next year to grow if economic data does hold up.Thanks as always for listening. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Today, we’re bringing you important stories from our public radio newsroom colleagues. As closure of their Fred Meyer draws closer, Lake City community advocates are raising the alarm that the neighborhood is transforming into a food desert. Immigration policies are affecting farm workers in central Washington, who say they’re losing hours and losing ground. And it’s wine harvesting season across the country, but with a slow market, Washington’s winemakers are bracing for what could be their worst year in decades. We can only make Seattle Now because listeners support us. Tap here to make a gift and keep Seattle Now in your feed. Got questions about local news or story ideas to share? We want to hear from you! Email us at seattlenow@kuow.org, leave us a voicemail at (206) 616-6746 or leave us feedback online.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpack the market and economic implications of a looming government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Michael Zezas: Today, our focus is once again on Washington – as the U.S. government fiscal year draws to a close and a potential government shutdown hangs in the balance.It's Friday, September 26th at noon in New York. Ariana we're just four days away from the end of the month. By October 1st, Congress needs to have a funding agreement in place, or we risk a potential shutdown. To that point, Democrats and Republicans seem far apart on the deal to avoid a shutdown. What's the state of play? Ariana Salvatore: Right now, Republicans are pushing for what's called a clean continuing resolution. That's a bill that would keep funding levels flat while putting more time on the clock for negotiators to hammer out full fiscal year appropriations. And the CR they're proposing lasts until November 21st. Democrats, conversely, are seeking to tie government funding to legislative compromise in other areas, including the enhanced Obamacare or ACA subsidies, and potential spending cuts to Medicaid from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Republicans signed earlier this year. Remember, even though Republicans hold a majority in both chambers, this has to be a bipartisan agreement because of exactly how thin those margins of control are. But Mike, it seems as we get closer, investors are asking more infrequently whether or not a shutdown is happening – and are more interested in how long it could potentially last. What are we thinking there? Michael Zezas: So, it's hard to know. Shutdowns typically last a few days, but sometimes there are short as a few hours, sometimes as long as a few weeks. Historically, shutdowns tend to end when the economic risk, and therefore the attached political risk gets real. So, consider the 35-day shutdown under President Trump in this first term. The compromise that ended it came quickly after there was an air traffic stoppage at New York's LaGuardia Airport – when 10 air traffic controllers who weren't being paid failed to show up for work. So, we think the more relevant question for investors is what it all means for economic activity. Our economists have historically argued that a government shutdown takes something like 0.1 percent off of GDP every single week it's happening. However, once employees go back to work, a lot of times that effect fades pretty quickly. Now it's important to understand that this time around there could be a wrinkle. The Trump administration is talking about laying employees off on a durable basis during the shutdown. And that's something that maybe would have more of a lasting economic impact. It's hard to know how credible that potential is. There would almost certainly be court challenges, but it's something we have to keep our eye on that could create a more meaningful economic consequence. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And there are also some really important indirect macroeconomic effects here. Like delayed data releases. Much of the federal workforce, to your point, will not be working through a shutdown – which could impede the collection and the release of some key data points that matter for markets like labor and inflation data, which come from BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, assuming we're in this scenario with a longer-term shutdown. Obviously, we're going to see an increase in uncertainty, especially as investors are looking toward each data print for guidance on what the Fed's next move might be. What do we expect the market reaction to all of this to be? Michael Zezas: Well, the obvious risk here is that markets might have to price in some weaker growth potential. So, you could see treasury yields fall. You could see equity markets wobble; be a bit more volatile. It could be that those effects are temporary, though. And that volatility could easily be amplified by having to price risk in the market without the data you were talking about, Ariana. So, investors could overreact to anecdotal signals about the economy or underweight some real risks that they're not seeing. So, that's why even a short shutdown can have outsized market effects. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you get this podcast and tell your friends about it. We want everyone to listen.

Our Co-Head of Securitized Products Research James Egan joins our Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner to discuss the recent challenges facing the U.S. housing market, and the path forward for home buyers and investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Research for Morgan Stanley. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. James Egan: And today we dive into a topic that touches nearly every American household, quite literally. The future of the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, September 25th at 10am in New York. So, Ellen, this conversation couldn't be timelier. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and our chief U.S. Economist, Mike Gapen expects three more consecutive 25 basis point cuts through January of next year. And that's going to be followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in April and July. But mortgage rates, they're not tied to fed funds. So even if we do get 6.25 bps cuts by the end of 2026, that in and of itself we don't think is going to be sufficient to bring down mortgage rates, though other factors could get us there.Taking all that into account, the U.S. housing market appears to be a little stuck. The big question on investors' minds is – what's next for housing and what does that mean for the broader economy? Ellen Zentner: Well, I don't like the word stuck. There's no churn in the housing market. We want to see things moving and shaking. We want to see sellers out there. We want to see buyers out there. And we've got a lot of buyers – or would be buyers, right? But not a lot of sellers. And, you know, the economy does well when things are moving and shaking because there's a lot of home related spending that goes on when we're selling and buying homes. And so that helps boost consumer spending. Housing is also a really interest rate sensitive sector, so you know, I like to say as goes housing, so goes the business cycle. And so, you don't want to think that housing is sort of on the downhill slide or heading toward a downturn [be]cause it would mean that the entire economy is headed toward a downturn. So, we want to see housing improve here. We want to see it thaw out. I don't like, again, the word stuck, you know. I want to see some more churn. James Egan: As do we, and one of the reasons that I wanted to talk to you today is that you are observing all of these pressures on the U.S. housing market from your perspective in wealth management. And that means your job is to advise retail clients who sometimes can have a longer investment time horizon. So, Ellen, when you look at the next decade, how do you estimate the need for new housing units in the United States and what happens if we fall short of these estimated targets? Ellen Zentner: Yeah, so we always like to say demographics makes the world go round and especially it makes the housing market go round. And we know that if you just look at demographic drivers in the U.S. Of those young millennials and Gen Z that are aging into their first time home buying years – whether they're able to immediately or at some point purchase a home – they will want to buy homes. And if they can't afford the homes, then they will want to maybe rent those single-family homes. But either way, if you're just looking at the sheer need for housing in any way, shape, or form that it comes, we're going to need about 18 million units to meet all of that demand through 2030. And so, when I'm talking with our clients on the wealth management side, it's – Okay, short term here or over the next couple of years, there is a housing cycle. And affordability is creating pressures there. But if we look out beyond that, there are opportunities because of the demographic drivers – single family rentals, multi-family. We think modular housing can be something big here, as well. All of those solutions that can help everyone get into a home that wants to be. James Egan: Now, you hit on something there that I think is really important, kind of the implications of affordability challenges. One of the things that we've been seeing is it's been driving a shift toward rentership over ownership. How does that specific trend affect economic multipliers and long-term wealth creation? Ellen Zentner: In terms of whether you're going to buy a single-family home or you're going to rent a single-family home, it tends to be more square footage and there's more spending that goes on with it. But, of course, then relatively speaking, if you're buying that single family home versus renting, you're also going to probably spend a lot more time and care on that home while you're there, which means more money into the economy. In terms of wealth creation, we'd love to get the single-family home ownership rate as high as possible. It's the key way that households build intergenerational wealth. And the average American, or the average household has four times the wealth in their home than they do in the stock market. And so that's why it's very important that we've always created wealth that way through housing; and we want people to own, and they want to own. And that's good news. James Egan: These affordability challenges. Another thing that you've been highlighting is that they've led to an internal migration trend. People moving from high cost to lower cost metro areas. How is this playing out and what are the economic consequences of this migration? Ellen Zentner: Well, I think, first of all, I think to the wonderful work that Mark Schmidt does on the Munis team at MS and Co. It matters a great deal, ownership rates in various regions because it can tell you something about the health of the metropolitan area where they are. Buying those homes and paying those property taxes. It can create imbalances across the U.S. where you've got excess supply maybe in some areas, but very tight housing supply in others. And eventually to balance that out, you might even have some people that, say, post-COVID or during COVID moved to some parts of the country that have now become very expensive. And so, they leave those places and then go back to either try another locale or back to the locale they had moved from. So, understanding those flows within the U.S. can help communities understand the needs of their community, the costs associated with filling those needs, and also associated revenues that might be coming in. So, Jim, I mentioned a couple of times here about single family renting, and so from your perch, given that growing number of single-family rentals, how is that going to influence housing strategy and pricing? James Egan: It is certainly another piece of the puzzle when we look at like single family home ownership, multi-unit rentership, multi-unit home ownership, and then single family rentership. Over the past 15 years, this has been the fastest growing way in which kind of U.S. households exist. And when we take a step back looking at the housing market more holistically – something you hit on earlier – supply has been low, and that's played a key role in keeping prices high and affordability under pressure. On top of that, credit availability has been constrained. It's one of the pillars that we use when evaluating home prices and housing activity that we do think gets overlooked. And so even if you can find a home to buy in these tight inventory environments, it's pretty difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Those lending standards have been tight, that's pushed the home ownership rate down to 65 percent. Now, it was a little bit lower than this, after the Great Financial Crisis, but prior to that point, this is the lowest that home ownership rates have been since 1995. And so, we do think that single family rentership, it becomes another outlet and will continue to be an important pillar for the U.S. housing market on a go forward basis. So, the economic implications of that, that you highlighted earlier, we think that's going to continue to be something that we're living with – pun only half intended – in the U.S. housing market. Ellen Zentner: Only half intended. But let me take you back to something that you said at the beginning of the podcast. And you talked about Gapen's expectation for rate cuts and that that's going to bring fed funds rate down. Those are interest rates, though that don't impact mortgage rates. So how do mortgage rates price? And then, how do you see those persistently higher mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability. Or, I guess, really, what we all want to know is – when are mortgage rates going to get to a point where housing does become affordable again? James Egan: In our prior podcast, my Co-Head of Securitized Products Research, Jay Bacow and myself talked about how cutting fed funds wasn't necessarily sufficient to bring down mortgage rates. But the other piece of this is going to be how much lower do mortgage rates need to go? And one of the things we highlighted there, a data point that we do think is important. Mortgage rates have come down recently, right? Like we're at our lowest point of the year, but the effective rate on the outstanding market is still below 4.25 percent. Mortgage rates are still above 6.25 percent, so the market's 200 basis points out of the money. One of the things that we've been trying to do, looking at changes to affordability historically. What we think you really need to see a sustainable growth in housing activity is about a 10 percent improvement in affordability. How do we get there? It's about a 5.5 percent mortgage rate as opposed to the 6 1/8th to 6.25 where we were when we walked into this recording studio today. We think there will be a little bit response to the move in mortgage rates we've already seen. Again, it's the lowest that rates have been this year, and there have been some… Ellen Zentner: Are those fence sitters; what we call fence sitters? People that say, ‘Oh gosh, it's coming down. Let me go ahead and jump in here.' James Egan: Absolutely. We'll see some of that. And then from just other parts of the housing infrastructure, we'll see refinance rates pick up, right? Like there are borrowers who've seen originations over the course of the past couple years whose rates are higher than this. Morgan Stanley actually publishes a truly refinanceable index that measures what percentage of the housing market has at least a 25 basis point incentive to refinance. Housing market holistically after this move? 17 percent? Mortgages originated in the last two years, 61 percent of them have that incentive. So, I think you'll see a little bit more purchase activity. Again, we need to get to 5.5 percent for us to believe that will be sustainable. But you'll also see some refinance activity as well, right? Ellen Zentner: Right, it doesn't mean you get absolutely nothing and then all of a sudden the spigot opens when you get to 5.5 percent. Anecdotal evidence, I have a 2.7 percent 30-year mortgage and I've told my husband, I'm going to die in this apartment. I'm not moving anywhere. So, I'm part of the problem, Jim. James Egan: Well, congratulations to you on the mortgage… Ellen Zentner: Thank you. I wasn't trying to brag, But yes, it feels like, you know, your point on perspective folks that are younger buyers, you know, are looking at the prevailing mortgage rate right now and saying, ‘My gosh, that's really high.' But some of us that have been around for a lot longer are saying, ‘Really, this is fine.' But it's all relative speaking. James Egan: When you have over 60 percent of the mortgage market that has a rate below 4.5 percent, below 4 percent, yes, on a long-term basis, mortgage rates don't look particularly high. They're very high relative to the past 15 years, and to your point on a 2.7 percent mortgage rate, there's no incentive for you... Or there's limited incentive for you to sell that home, pay off that 2.7 percent mortgage rate, buy a new home at higher prices, at a much higher mortgage rate. That has – I know you don't like the word stuck – but it has been what's gotten this housing market kind of mired in its current situation. Price is very protective. Activity pretty low. Ellen Zentner: Jim, we've been talking about all the affordability issues and so let's set mortgage rates aside and talk about policy proposals. Are there specific policies that could also help on the affordability front? James Egan: So, there's a number of things that we get questions about on a pretty regular basis. Things like GSE reform, first time home buyer tax credits, things that could potentially spur supply. And look, the devil is in the details here. My colleague, Jay Bacow, has done a lot of work on GSE reform and what we're really focusing on there is the nature of the guarantee as well as the future of regulation and capital charges. For instance, U.S. banks own approximately one-third of the agency mortgage-backed securities market. Any changes to regulatory capital as a result of GSE reform, that could have implications for their demand, and that's going to have implications on mortgage rates, right? First time home buyer tax credits. We have seen those before – the spring of 2008 to 2010, and if we use that as a case study, we did see a temporary rise in home sales and a pause in the pace with which home prices were falling. But the effects there were temporary. Sales and prices wouldn't hit their post housing crisis lows until after those programs expired. Ellen Zentner: Right. So, you were incentivized to buy the house. You get the credit; you buy the house. But then unbeknownst to any economist out there, housing valuations continued to fall. James Egan: You could argue that it maybe pulled some demand forward. And so, you saw a lot of it concentrated and then the absence of that demand afterwards. And then on the supply side, there are a number of different programs we have touched on, some of them in these podcasts in the past. And then some of those questions become what needs to go through Congress, what is more kind of local municipality versus federal government. But look, the devil's in the details. It's an incredibly interesting housing market. Probably one that's going to be the source of many podcasts to come. So, Ellen, given all these challenges facing the U.S. housing market. Where do you see the biggest opportunities for retail investors? Ellen Zentner: So, in our recent note Housing in the Next Decade, we took a look at single family renting; you and I have talked about how that's likely to still be in favor for some time. REITs with exposure to select U.S. rental markets; what about senior housing? That is something that you've done deep research on, as well. Senior and affordable housing providers, home construction and materials companies. What about building more sustainable homes with a good deal of the climate change that we're seeing. And financial technology firms that offer flexible financing solutions. So, these are some of the things that we think could be in play as we think about housing over the long term. James Egan: Ellen, thank you for all your insights. It's been a pleasure to have you on the podcast. And I guess there's a key takeaway for investors here. Housing isn't just about where we live, it's about where the economy is headed. Ellen Zentner: Exactly. Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks, Jim. James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.