Podcasts about YCC

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2024 3:54

APAC stocks traded mixed as markets digested the first of this week's central bank announcements.BoJ carried out a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying.RBA kept rates unchanged whilst providing a dovish tweak to its guidance on rates.JPY and AUD lag peers post-rate decisions with USD/JPY back on a 150 handle.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down 0.1% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Labour Costs, German ZEW, Canadian CPI, Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda & ECB's de Guindos, Supply from UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

europe uk european market exit supply apac forex ecb equities aud fixed income boj rba dovish euro stoxx jpy ycc usd jpy nirp

US Market Open: Equities mixed, Dollar bid & JPY lower post-BoJ hike; US 20yr supply due

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2024 2:46

European bourses are mixed; US equity futures are lower, RTY underperformsBoJ carried out a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying; RBA U/C, dovish tweak to guidanceDollar is firmer and trades around 104.00, JPY underperforms post-BoJ, AUD pressured post-RBABonds incrementally firmer as attention turns to US 20yr supplyCrude and XAU are modesty softer, weighed on by the stronger DollarLooking ahead, Canadian CPI & Supply from the USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

european mixed lower dollar supply hike forex equities aud fixed income boj us markets jpy ycc nirp xau

2425.日本经济到底行不行？日本股市涨出泡沫来了吗？(下)

雪球·财经有深度

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2024 7:28

长期薪资停止增长，普通员工的收入无法与企业和国家经济同步成长，这是日本失去的30年的重要原因。21世纪的前10年，日本经济复苏，年收入2000万日元以上的金领人群增加了2.2万人，但年薪400万日元以上的中产人数下降了400多万，低薪人数增加了400多万，整个社会的财富和消费并没有随着经济增长而增加，到了2008年金融危机，日本经济再次步入衰退，浪费了这一次宝贵的复苏机遇。如何解决“不加薪”的问题呢？日本经济其实一直在等一次全球大通胀的机会。通胀按照成因可以分为成本推动型和需求拉动型。本轮通胀的源头是美国为应对疫情对经济活动的影响而进行的对民众的“大撒币”的财政政策，直接推动了民间消费力，很多美国人直到2023年才把政府发的钱花完，所以属于典型的需求拉动型通胀。理论上说，日本作为对美贸易顺差国，出口带来的经济增长，受益于通胀；加上同时作为资源进口国，也会出现进口商品成本上涨驱动的输入型通胀，如果在欧美或国内，企业应对成本上涨的第一考虑是提价，但日本企业首先考虑的是控制员工工资，以对冲材料成本上升，导致日本的通胀率远低于欧美，企业仍然受长期通缩思维的影响，反而会打击消费。因此，很多人都希望通过这一次的全球大通胀“以毒攻毒”，带动日本经济走出长期通缩的阴影，但必须是真正收入增长带来的需求拉动的。日本之所以从21Q2开始经济增速转正，其中内需持续强劲是关键，内需对经济增长贡献率平均接近180%；跟以前靠海外投资和收入支撑经济与企业盈利不同。但日本厚生劳动省发布的去年11月的调查显示，尽管日本民众的薪资在小幅增长，但扣除物价变动后的实际工资水平同比减少了3%，连续20个月下降，这也是三、四季度日本GDP又重新变负的原因之一。结论是一定要打破工资三十年不涨的魔咒。日本经济目前的关注焦点是“春斗”——春季劳资谈判。日本是终身雇佣制，员工很少跳槽，加工资只能通过每年一两次的工资谈判，所以谈判结果不仅代表企业对未来的预期，也是未来内需增长的关键推动力。目前资本市场体现的是对谈判结果的乐观，日本经济研究中心发布的经济学家调查显示，大公司今年的平均工资涨幅可能达到3.80%，超过去年的3.58%。但中小型企业能否跟上大型企业的步伐，仍存在不确定性。很多人关心日本央行何时退出YCC超级宽松政策，其实也是跟工资谈判的结果有关。所以每一个国家都有自己最核心的问题，只有找准了，才能得到正确的结论。当然，日本经济更长期的问题是产业结构，由于在上一轮错失互联网的产业发展机会，制造业又遇到中国的挑战，日本的优势行业不断减少，日本现在的人均GDP只有经济实力相似的德国的66%，而1995年前，日本人均GDP是德国的1.36倍，劳动者效率的下降，背后是产业部门相对优势的落后。当然，放眼全球，产业升级问题解决得比较好的目前只有美国，就连我们也在努力，日本经济的长期增长动力仍然需要持续跟踪分析。日本股市是泡沫吗？说到这儿，就可以回答上篇开头的问题，如果日本经济并没有完全复苏，如何判断股市的上涨呢？结论有三点：1、股市上涨并没有完全体现日本上市公司的业绩增长前面分析过，股市跟名义GDP的关系更强，所以2023年日本股市涨幅全球。2024年继续上涨。当前日本经济呈现明显的：上市公司利润增速>营收增长>国民经济增速日经225指数当前的市盈率约为17.1倍，低于过去3、5和10年的平均水平。而日本上市公司过去三年净利润平均每年增长31%，远高于营收增速9.5%——所以谈不上泡沫。再横向全球比较，目前东证主要公司PB1.3倍，PE15.4倍，全球看仍然是比较低的，主要还是之前的股市估值水平太低了。以2023年涨幅第一的神户制钢为例，2023年至今涨幅为232%，但现在也才6.4倍PE，股息率为3.4%；川崎汽船，2023年至今涨幅为180%，PE也仅为8.7倍，股息率为5.95%。股市涨跌主要看边际变化而不是总量，从不及格到及格，就会上涨，从90分到85分，就会下跌。日本经济的问题，都已经体现、甚至过度体现在股市的长期下跌中了，而指数目前也才回到34年前。这34年中，标普500涨了34倍，德国指数涨了10倍，英国涨了2.5倍，港股涨了4.6倍，仍然是属于修复式上涨。2、上涨体现了日本产业格局的某些变化以去年日经225成份股中前十大涨幅的公司为例，四家是传统行业公司的估值修复，五家半导体及电子通信公司，一家是消费类公司。从中也可以管窥日本股市这一轮上涨的三个推动力：动力一：低估值公司的估值修复这是日本政府要求上市公司管理层加强股东回报的结果，改变日本上市公司长期不重视股东利益的问题（值得A股借鉴）。动力二：日本半导体及电子信息行业的复苏这是美国为了遏制中国的半导体行业，而进行的全球产能重新分配的结果，以及AI对半导体和电子行业的推动。动力三：日本内需消费缓慢恢复3、日本人觉得涨多了，但外国投资者仍然惊呼便宜这一轮日本股市的上涨，从资金上看，主要是外资推动，特别是从A股和港股撤出的资金，日本国内资金反而一路在卖。对于日本经济复苏，也是国内悲观国外乐观。根据中金的分析，虽然过去两年，全球主动型基金对日本市场的低配比例已明显降低，但仍然低配，所以仍然有流入空间。由于外国投资者倾向于购买知名度高、流动性强的股票，所以此轮牛市明显仰仗少数大盘股拉动，大部分公司涨幅有限。但并不能因此认为日股有泡沫，股市是看未来的，通常都走在经济前面。1990年，日本经济泡沫还没有破裂，楼价还在高点时，股市就已经先跌了45%，两年后，楼价泡沫破灭，股市又跌了40%，再等五年，企业和银行大规模破产，股市再跌70%。对于普遍民众，拿“日本GDP再掉一名”做谈资，也无可厚非，但作为投资者，不去深究，而因此产生错误的判断，就是拿自己的钱开玩笑了。

ai pe gdp ycc

Here We Go Again -- Dollar Bulls Back in Charge: FX Moment

FICC Focus

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2024 23:54

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses the dollar's prospects in the wake of recent US macro news flow with Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. Brad and Audrey look at how the unexpectedly strong turn in US data has revived broad dollar strength, consistent with Brad's base case. Yet, given ever-changing G10-FX drivers and narratives, both favor taking a quarter-by-quarter approach. Audrey and her guest agree the cost-of-carry conundrum won't be solved by the Bank of Japan ending YCC, or even modest rate rises. In the near term, they think yen bulls may look for Swiss-yen downside and forget about a sustainable decline in dollar-yen for now -- the latter pair may reach 152 before it reaches 140.

japan bank charge chicago bulls dollar swiss fx ycc jefferies llc

Europe Market Open: JPY slipped as BoJ left settings unchanged; APAC equities mixed

ä¼Šè—¤æ´‹ä¸€ã®Round Up World Nowï¼

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2023 3:18

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after a subdued start to the session with news flow light and the BoJ failing to induce any macro price action.JPY was hit after the BoJ unanimously left its rate and YCC unchanged, whilst forward guidance was also maintained and the Bank acknowledged the recent cooling in inflation.Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said it is appropriate for the Fed to begin looking ahead to lowering interest rates in 2024 because of how inflation has improved this year.The US and its allies agreed to a Red Sea naval task force, according to Associated Press; Yemen Houthi officials said the group will be able to confront any possible coalition that could be formed by the US in the Red Sea.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, Japanese Trade Balance, NBH Announcement, Fed's Bostic, Goolsbee; BoE's Green; ECB's Elderson, and Supply from the UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

europe uk green market left bank mixed supply fed red sea associated press settings daly apac forex ecb equities boe fixed income boj slipped unchanged bostic jpy ycc fed's bostic

MILEI será ENGOLIDO pela política?; VENEZUELA quer INVADIR GUIANA; BITCOIN dispara

Fernando Ulrich

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2023 48:33

O "Ulrich Responde" é uma série de vídeos em que respondo perguntas enviadas por seguidores e abordo diversos tópicos relacionados à economia, finanças e investimentos. O formato permite uma interação mais direta com o público, com oportunidade de esclarecer dúvidas e obter insights sobre questões atuais. Desde política econômica, inflação, taxas de juros, até investimentos em criptomoedas e ações, oferecendo uma análise aprofundada e bem fundamentada em cada episódio. É uma excelente fonte de informação para quem busca entender melhor os meandros da economia e tomar decisões financeiras mais informadas. (00:00) Introdução (00:51) Você vê risco de no longo prazo o Brasil dar calote na sua dívida emitida em reais? Em que cenários isso seria uma possibilidade? (02:34) Qual o seu palpite para este rally do Bitcoin? (07:54) Supondo que o Fed só abaixe as taxas de juros lá para 2025, depois de quanto tempo podemos esperar um aquecimento no mercado de tecnologia e número de vagas? (10:36) Elon Musk e Jack Dorsey pedem que usuários saquem bitcoins das corretoras. (11:39) O governo brasileiro pode confiscar aplicações nos Estados Unidos? (13:18) Como que um país que depende de vender commodities atreladas ao crescimento populacional tem futuro num mundo sem filhos? (14:18) Dicas para quem está na faculdade de economia e quer seguir na sua área de atuação. (16:17) Como transformar o conteúdo dos ciclos de mercado em de fato decisões para a carreira? (19:58) Taxas de juros do Iene japonês (21:13) Acabou a máxima de que a América do Sul é um continente pacífico, bom pra investir? (24:34) Onde comprou esse globo? (25:06) Ulrich e pagode, quem diria! Você parece curtir rock. (26:16) Você acredita no que Luis Alves Paes de Barros diz, que "teremos um ciclo de alta da bolsa até 2026"? (27:44) Onde e como você compra bonds de empresas americanas? (28:17) Qual tipo de perguntas você mais gosta de responder, mas não vê o pessoal perguntando muito? (29:38) Tem que gravar um lavando as louças conosco. (29:56) Se você tivesse como ter a resposta de qualquer pergunta, qual pergunta faria e para quem? (30:35) O que está achando da equipe econômica do Milei? (34:19) Com algumas retiradas de planos de Milei, Banco Central, por exemplo, não fica difícil demonstrar em termos práticos as teorias libertárias? (35:21) Narrativa do ETF BTC vindo forte, valor praticamente precificado. Veremos “dump it” se for aprovado? (35:46) Suas expectativas atuais para o dólar? (37:50) Japão está à beira da recessão técnica, mesmo com juros negativos e YCC. (39:15) E se os seus filhos fossem socialistas/comunistas? (42:44) Compraria o Cybertruck da Tesla? (43:08) Nas Fronteiras do Dinheiro foi inspirado no Jim Rodgers? (43:31) Quem tem família e pouca reserva, vale a pena tentar a vida nos EUA nesse momento? (44:00) Qual foi a mais fascinante e inesquecível viagem da sua vida? (48:19) Encerramento

Round Up World Now!（2023.11.3放送分）

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2023

＜ヘッドライン＞イスラエル軍、パレスチナ自治区ガザ北部へ地上侵攻開始し空爆を強化　ネタニヤフ首相「これは戦争の第2段階だ」「ハマスの統治・軍事能力を破壊する」　グテーレス国連事務総長「戦闘の激化を深く懸念している。エスカレーションは民間人の苦しみを増やすだけだ」　世界各地でイスラエルに対する非難の声／日経・テレ東世論調査、岸田内閣支持率は9月調査より9ポイント低い33%　2021年10月の政権発足後、最低　「支持しない」割合、8ポイント上昇の59%／日銀決定会合、YCC再修正を決定　長期金利の上限めどを1%に引き上げ　指し値オペ「金利の実勢等を踏まえて適宜決定」／米FOMC、2会合連続で政策金利を据え置き　パウエル議長「インフレのさらなる進展は、さらなる引き締めを正当化する可能性がある」　足元の政策金利がインフレ抑制のために十分な水準に達したか判断を保留／UAW「4年間の労働協約の更新を巡りゼネラル・モーターズと暫定合意に達し、9月15日から実施してきたストを終結する」　米「ビッグ3」全社で労使協議まとまる／米政府高官「今月中旬にバイデン大統領と習近平・国家主席が対面で会談することで、中国側と原則合意」　サンフランシスコで開催の国際会議にあわせて実施する計画／故・李克強中国前首相を追悼する動き、中国各地に広がる　李氏が育った安徽省合肥市で多くの市民が集まり花束を手向ける　地元当局、SNSなどへの写真投稿控えるよう呼びかけ　中国政府、李氏の追悼を巡る若者ら市民の動きを警戒＜ポイント＞（１）日銀の金融政策への疑問（２）イスラエル軍のガザ北部侵攻と激しさ増す空爆について（３）米中は折り合えるか？＜今週のここ／これを見てきた＞激変の京都・その２　

sns uaw fomc ycc

Financial Market Preview - Tuesday 31-Oct

china japan european bank asian financial markets ycc

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2023 4:42

US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 05:00 ET. This follows mostly weaker Asian trade, while European equity markets are higher. The Bank of Japan moved to increase YCC flexibility at today's meeting, describing the 10Y ceiling of 1% as a reference and making no mention of daily fixed-rate purchase operations. China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly swung back to contraction, while non-manufacturing activity fell to the lowest level since the economy reopened from lockdown earlier this year.Companies Mentioned: Hubbell, Idex Corp

Financial Market Preview - Monday 30-Oct

european asian attention fed general motors fragrance financial markets treasury department stellantis boe boj ycc clariant

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2023 4:19

US futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened positive, following mixed levels in Asian markets. Attention turns to this week's key macro events. In addition to the 2-Nov FOMC meeting, for which markets have priced in another pause, Treasury Department quarterly refunding is also seen as potentially bigger swing factor than Fed. BOE is also on radar, with markets expecting hawkish hold. BOJ meeting may discuss YCC tweaks.Companies Mentioned: International Flavors & Fragrances, Clariant, General Motors, Stellantis

Global Data Pod Weekender: Hold and seek

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2023 25:27

US real GDP boomed last quarter but the more meaningful signal was in the strong nominal income gains that will support growth into year-end. This contrasts with a disappointing flash October PMI reading from Europe, underscoring our call for weakness to continue. While we see the odds of a Dec hike as higher than current pricing, we expect next week's Fed to deliver a hawkish hold to see more data. The BoJ is expected to edge closer to removing YCC bands in favor of a more flexible approach to JGB interventions (though not next week). Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

europe seek fed gdp institutional jp morgan chase boj weekender global data ycc jgb

How Are We Going to Buy for Everything?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2023 20:50

As everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn't. At some point in the not so distant future, the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop reducing its balance sheet and start doing some YCC (yield curve control). It isn't a question of if, it is a question of when. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss Washington's profligacy and its ability to finance it moving forward. The low-hanging fruit is getting the Fed involved, again, but when? John and Sam bet a beer on it. Who will win?

washington couple fed federal reserve treasury ycc

Europe Market Open: Mixed earnings and geopolitical angst weighs on sentiment

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2023 4:23

APAC stocks traded with losses across the board following the downside seen on Wall Street on Friday; Foxconn shares fell amid a Chinese probe.Oil futures, spot gold, and the Swiss Franc unwound some geopolitical risk premium overnight amid no major escalation in the Middle East over the weekend.An Israeli official said there will be 'no ceasefire' in Gaza, according to CNN. The US is pressing Israel to delay the Gaza invasion to win hostage releases.Israeli PM Netanyahu said if Hezbollah goes to war with Israel, it would bring unimaginable devastation upon it and Lebanon.European equity futures are uneventful with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash markets closed -1.6% on Friday.BoJ officials are reportedly mulling tweaking the settings of YCC "because domestic long-term interest rates are also rising as US interest rates rise", according to Nikkei sources.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Flash and Australian Flash PMIs. Earnings from Philips, UniCredit, SandvikRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Financial Market Preview - Monday 18-Sep

european asian itv blackstone evergrande financial markets boe boj warner bros discovery snb ycc riksbank

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2023 3:49

US futures are pointing to a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened in the negative territory, following weaker levels in Asian markets. Fed Fund Futures now show 99% chance of hold on Wednesday, though attention is on whether there will be another hike and how long rates will remain restrictive. BoE is expected to hike by another 25bps on Thursday, but majority of economists now think it is likely to be peak of its cycle. SNB and Riksbank are on track to increase rates. BOJ will likely hold on Friday although analysts are not ruling out tightening comment on YCC.Companies Mentioned: Liberty Global, Warner Bros Discovery, Blackstone, ITV. Lithia Motors, Pendragon PLC, Evergrande

Global Economy: Fall Outlook for Rates and the Economy

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2023 9:16

Heading into the end of the year, questions remain around Treasury yields and the neutral interest rate.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist. Guneet Dhingra: And I'm Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Trade Strategies. Seth Carpenter: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing our updated economic and rates outlook for the rest of the year and into 2024. It's Monday, September 11th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Seth Carpenter: All right, Guneet. We are now about a week into September and we can take stock of what we've learned over the summer. For macroeconomists like me we care about growth, inflation, monetary policy, and I'll say this summer spending indicators came in strong, inflation continued to fall, and we had Jackson Hole, the sort of nerd temple for monetary policy. And I have to say we didn't learn quite as much as I hoped, but we kind of know the Fed has done hiking, or at least very close. But I have to say, in your domain, the Treasury yield is trading roughly 4.25%. On the last day of June, when summer began, it was around 380. Can we just attribute the higher rate to thin liquidity and move on? Guneet Dhingra: You're right Seth, it's not just thin liquidity, but the conditions of August definitely played a meaningful part in sending yields higher. Typically, as investors look to go away for August, positive carry trades are the easiest trades to have on, and playing for higher yields has been positive carry. Which is why I think in August this year and even the last year, yields tended to go higher. But beyond August, seasonality, which might be the simplest explanation, investors have 4 major narratives out there that R-star, the so-called neutral rate of interest has increased, the end of yield curve control in Japan, more Treasury supply and more recently at the end of the summer, and increased supply of corporate debt. Guneet Dhingra: So before we go there Seth, you mentioned Jackson Hole at the end of the summer. The idea that some investors have that because the economy has held up so well, despite the Fed's rate hikes, that the underlying neutral rate or R-star must be higher and so will have higher interest rates not just now, but into the future. What is your take on this whole R* debate and what have you learned from Jackson Hole? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. So I have to say Jackson Hole was very interesting, but this time there were a lot of very academic minded papers there that were very important to talk about. I can see how they can spur debate, but I'm not sure they provide that much that's actionable in the near term for the Fed or even for markets. And when it comes specifically to R-star, color me a bit skeptical and I say that for a few reasons. One, alternate explanations just abound. We could have got stronger spending because there's more residual impetus from the fiscal policy that's already in the pipeline. And in particular, if we look at where we missed our GDP forecast, a really big part of that was nonresidential structures investment. So that could go a long way to explain it. Second, if R-star really was higher, I think that would mean that the Fed would have to raise the peak rate during this hiking cycle even higher, not just rates off in the future. And so what does that mean? That means that I at least would have expected a parallel shift higher in rates, not just along in selling off. And in fact, you might even see a steeper inversion of the curve as the rate goes higher in the near term, but then has to come down later. So take all of that together, and I guess I'm just really not convinced that there's enough evidence to conclude that R-star is higher. Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, makes a lot of sense, Seth. And listening to you about the growth and economic picture, I'm even more convinced that this R-star story doesn't quite hold water. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then there is the yield curve control story. And I will say, at the risk of patting myself on the back, our Japan team had been expecting a tweak to yield curve control in Japan, and we got it. But I know that you're skeptical that that's really the story here. Why do you push back? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, I think one of the ways you can actually verify the impact of the yield curve control on the U.S Treasury market, is just break down the price action into different time zones. And what you saw is in the Tokyo time zone, where you would expect a lot of the so-called repatriation flows to play out, we haven't really seen much of a movement in U.S Treasury yields ever since the YCC change announcement. So I would say based on the time zone analysis, it doesn't look like YCC changes are really impacting Treasury yields. Seth Carpenter: Okay Guneet, I get it. So it wasn't from trading happening in Tokyo, but these sort of markets are global. There could have been traders in London, traders in New York who were reacting to the change in yield curve control and selling their JGBs. And then the traders in Tokyo wake up and go, oh, nothing to do here. What do you make of that story? Why couldn't that be the explanation that it really was yield curve control? Guneet Dhingra: So if you break it down in the London Time Zone, it actually turns out that Treasury yields have actually gone lower since the YCC announcement in the London Time Zone. To my mind, that speaks to the idea that maybe investors in those time zones are more focused on the weakness in the European economy than any changes to YCC. And speaking of the New York time zone, yes, it is true that the bulk of the sell off in Treasury yields has happened in the New York time zone. But keep in mind, if hedge funds are the only major player selling yields on the back of the YCC, and it's not quite backed up by repatriation flows, it's probably not likely going to be sustainable. Seth Carpenter: Then let's turn to the last one, increased supply of debt, both Treasury debt and corporate debt. So we know that the U.S deficit is high, Issuance will have to continue for some time. We've heard all of the stories about corporates starting to stir in capital markets and issue more. Shouldn't it be logical that if demand for assets is roughly unchanged but the supply goes up, the price will fall, which should lead to a sell off in rates? What do you make of that story? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, the story is pretty logical, but I don't think it still answers the question. If supply was really the main driver, I would expect to see more of a substantial tightening in so-called swap spreads, which is the gap between Treasury yields and the equivalent swap rates. We haven't really seen much of a tightening in swap spreads, which really undercuts the idea that Treasury supply is already on investors minds. Seth Carpenter: All right. So I think we've gone through a bunch of the narratives, pushd back on a lot of them, maybe debunked them a little bit. I guess the one other question I would have for you is, could it be that markets are waking up to the higher for longer narrative? The Fed's been trying to say that they're going to keep interest rates as high as they need to for as long as they need to in order to bring inflation back to target. Maybe the market's putting more probability on that sort of outcome. Guneet Dhingra: Just to pretend I'm smarter than the economists, I will use the word bear steepening of the curve here. So in my view, the recent bear steepening of the 2s/10s curve is a combination of two things. Number one, there has been very little change in the market implied Fed funds path through the end of 2024. And number two, the back end has moved higher with some combination of August seasonality and belief around a higher R-star. So I would say it is less about the quote unquote higher for longer expectation, but more about the idea that the Fed fund eventually settles at a higher level in the medium term. Seth Carpenter: Okay. I guess that's fair. Let's take a step back, though, and take stock of what it is that we've learned. You and I and our colleagues have published work recently, basically saying, here's the mid-year outlook we published in May, here are the data that we got over the course of the summer. What did we get right and what did we get wrong? I econ, I'd say we got right the continued and pretty rapid fall in inflation in the U.S. and the slowing in the labor market, and I'm pretty proud of that. But boy, we got wrong just how strong the U.S. economy would be. And in very stark contrast, we missed just how weak the Chinese economy would be. Boy, we really thought that there'd be a stronger, more vigorous policy response that would get better traction and we'd see a bigger cyclical rebound. What are your key takeaways from what you and your colleagues in strategy have learned over the summer? Guneet Dhingra: To start with some numbers, we had ten year yields ending at 3.5% by the end of 2023. Currently there are 4.25%. We think we missed two things. First, the market focuses on upside and growth rather than the cooling of inflation. And number two, we missed the investors and how they're behaving, once bitten twice shy, about adding duration until every data point cools down convincingly. Having said that, your forecast is for more cooling and growth and inflation through the year. And so we have only marginally raised our ten year forecast to 3.65% by the end of this year. Seth Carpenter: I have to say, Guneet, every time I talk to you, I learn something new. So thank you for taking the time to talk. Guneet Dhingra: Great speaking with you, Seth. Seth Carpenter: And thanks to the listeners for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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Julian Brigden: Market Pain will Create the Perfect Conditions for Gold

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2023 44:53

Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden from Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the inconsistencies between equities and bond markets. Markets don't seem to be fully pricing in the probability of a recession. We are seeing hyperfinancialization, where equity markets are not necessarily correlating with the real economy. These Hyper Financial Markets are setting the patterns for the movements of bonds and equities. Those in power are concerned with how financial markets are performing rather than the real economy. The demand for jobs remains, but is softening; however, we are not at the stage of job cuts yet. The question is can we have accelerating real growth without having to lose jobs. Julian thinks that a higher inflationary period combined with increased bond yields is inevitable. We are in the war phase as we witnessed in the late 1960s. The lagging effects of a tightening economy will take some time to be seen fully. There are evident issues in the U.S. economy and these will manifest next year, especially if rates do not decrease. The wildcard here is fiscal policy and equities proping up the current situation. Eventually, equities will need to acknowledge the decreased growth but we are not there yet. Julian questions if the Fed will follow the government's wishes. Governments are demanding entitlements, like better wages and higher costs of living. The Fed will have to decide between raising inflation or following the governments demands. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Bonds & Equities6:09 - Labor Markets13:46 - Inflation Thesis19:05 - Historic Comparisons22:00 - Fed Response & Toolkit29:59 - Fed Trial Balloon32:10 - Debt Load & Outcomes39:42 - Bonds, YCC, & Japan42:54 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode We are seeing Hyper Financialization, where equity markets don't correlate to the real economy. Julian believes we are entering a higher inflationary period combined with increasing bond yields, similar to the late 1960s. The Fed will soon have to decide between raising inflation or following the governments demands for entitlements. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Website: https://mi2partners.com/Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/ Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a research and market team to publish independent macroeconomic research ahead of market consensus. He has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in consulting, FICC sales, and hedge fund sales. He is a trusted advisor to many top money managers and is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets. When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive and the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. In Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades, the ECB will need to raise rates, adding to pressure in global bond markets. Julian believes that there is a significant risk that we are entering a period of extended volatility. He is featured on many big media outlets discussing macro research topics driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.

head europe pain research gold government market partners markets conditions substack fed bonds omicron ecb ycc julian brigden macro intelligence

日央會放棄殖利率曲線管控(YCC)嗎？ 2023.08.16

財經一路發

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2023 21:57

國家級VIP敬請上座高雄新案【清景麟‧國家公園】30,000坪小港森林公園第一排日本住友制震地標、生活安心高標花園泳池俱樂部、獨家法式鐵板燒、運動吧多項星級全齡公設，回家就是真正渡假2-3房，即刻把握：https://link.fstry.me/3PfJYSD —— 以上為 FMTaiwan & Firstory DAI 動態廣告 —— 【98有聲書房】開張，訂閱收藏News98精選有聲書：https://apple.co/44KcuRo 主持人：阮慕驊來賓：淡江大學財務金融學系副教授段昌文博士主題：日央會放棄殖利率曲線管控(YCC)嗎？節目時間：週一至週五 5:00pm-7:00pm 本集播出日期：2023.08.16 如果您喜歡我們的節目，請記得訂閱並且留下五星評分及評論。更歡迎您小額贊助我們，讓我們能創作出更豐富的節目內容。>>https://open.firstory.me/join/98-money168 ----- ▍九八新聞台@大台北地區 FM98.1 ▍官網：http://www.news98.com.tw ▍粉絲團：https://www.facebook.com/News98 ▍線上收聽：https://pse.is/R5W29 ▍APP下載 • APP Store：https://news98.page.link/apps • Google Play：https://news98.page.link/play ▍YouTube頻道：https://www.youtube.com/user/News98radio ▍Podcast：https://news98radio.wixsite.com/news98podcast Powered by Firstory Hosting

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U.S. Fiscal Perspectives and Views thru Labor Day

Deep Look: Ultiworld's Weekly Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2023 18:42

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the recent Fitch downgrade of the U.S. credit to AA+ and compares it to the first downgrade by S&P roughly 12 years ago. He believes this time the backdrop is different given that the debt loads are even larger now and the Fed has rates much higher versus back then when rates were anchored by the near zero rate policy of that time period. Market reactions thus far are also different versus the first downgrade too. The other issue is that the Fitch downgrade occurred during a week when the Treasury was announcing the need to issue more debt and increase the auction sizes of Treasury securities. George has been highlighting that the sequence from the Fed to the BoJ tweaking YCC and then more UST debt, all of which have largely come to fruition as per George's views, should result in rates in the middle of the yield curve (known as the belly and/or intermediate rates) would do most of the adjustment higher. So far that is what we have seen with 10s now well above the 4% level. Lastly, George looks forward and discusses why NFP, which is always important, but unless it breaks the string of weaker NFP reports of late, than the Fed is likely to skip in September.

market perspectives views labor day fed aa treasury fiscal fitch nfp boj ust ycc macro strategies

Deep Look: US Open Preview, AUDL Wild Card Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2023 57:59

Charlie and Keith talk about the upset-filled AUDL Wild Card weekend. Then they turn their attention to Club, where the upsets continued at SFI East and they preview the US Open. They also talk a bit about who to watch at YCC!

sports club wild card us open frisbee us open preview deep look ycc audl

第153集 | 各國經濟環境大轉變! 投資者如何自處?

投資唔講廢話

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2023 11:36

息息復息息，央行又加息。但美國股市表示Who cares! 日本調整YCC係咩意思? 中國刺激經濟又係咪真係有用?

ycc

Bank Of Japan Takes A Major Gamble With Yield Curve Control

Boiler Room

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2023 80:14

At the July 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan took markets by surprise (after "pre-announcing" its policy 10 hours prior during US trading hours and moving global currency, equity and bond markets) by making a significant change to its Yield Curve Control policy framework, in which it lifts the upper trading band on 10-year JGB yields from 0.50% to 1%. The central bank also made a major revision upwards on its inflation forecasts for fiscal year 2023 to 2.5%, well above its 2% target. This is the first policy change implemented under newly appointed Governor Ueda. While the consensus debate revolves around whether or not this is the start of Bank of Japan's exit from its outlier accommodative policies, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura believes that there is far more to the policy decision than just a "YCC tweak." Aided by utilizing financial media outlets to move markets and clear out existing positions, the Bank of Japan is attempting to wrestle its policy away from the hands of markets, and return it back under its own control by purposely introducing elements of confusion and uncertainty - which it labels as "flexibility." Weston gives a historic overview of how Yield Curve Control trading bands had been a market-creation in the first place, what the market implications are, and why this policy change fundamentally reshapes how the Bank of Japan and market participants interact. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Olje opp, Rolex-klokker ned

Tid er penger - En podcast med Peter Warren

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2023 70:36

Dette er episode 222 av Tid er penger. I denne episoden snakker Peter om vinnere og tapere i sommer, oljeprisen, YCC og billig forsikring. Her kan du høre hele episoden, uten promo, reklame: https://www.patreon.com/posts/aksjer-opp-rolex-86943657 Vil du melde deg på nyhetsbrevet til Tid er penger, gjør du det her: https://tiderpenger.substack.com/ Hør disse også fra Patreon: Intervju med vår egen material-ekspert Erik Intervju med vår egen AI-Yngve Intervju med Espen Agdestein Intervju med Jon Winding-Sørensen Intervju med Daniel fra Google Intervju med super-gründer Jason Cohen Intervju med Michael Every i Rabobank Intervju med Andreas Farberg i KLP Intervju med Morten Goodwin om AI Intervju med Paolo Pellegrini Intervju med superatlet Kristin Holte Intervju med general David Patreus Wayne Himelsein om finans og filosofi Gard L. Michalsen om å være gründer og media Ole Hansen fra Saxo om olje Kjetil Hatlebrekke, Etterretningstjenesten som arbeidsgiver Tor-Kristian Karlsen om fotball og penger Alexander Ellefsen om FTX Torbjørn Kjus om diesel Arcanes Vetle Lunde Andreas Steno Larsen Robin Wiggelsworth (FT) Thomas Hoenig (ex-Fed) Knut Erik Eldjarn Mark Dow Putins tidligere taleskriver Intervju med Tor Svelland i vanlig episode See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Financial Market Preview - Friday 28-Jul

european asian wall street astrazeneca financial markets boj ycc

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2023 4:42

US futures are indicating a higher open. European equity markets have opened lower as they catch up with Wall Street's late drop. Asian equities finished mixed in a strong catalyst-based trading day. BOJ decided to increase flexibility around YCC target, saying it will keep 0.5% ceiling but allow for moderate movements above that level. No other changes to policy settings. US data points to possibility of soft landing.Companies Mentioned: Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Topbuild

Global Data Pod Weekender: These data are juuust right!

europe fed institutional jp morgan chase goldilocks ecb boj weekender global data ycc

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2023 18:32

A week of data that trims both downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation are giving a bid to Goldilocks. As we noted in recent weeks, don't fight the cyclical sweet spot we are entering. While Europe is the weak link, the US stands out this week with strong 2Q GDP and solid consumer spending in June. The Fed and ECB hike but turn data dependent, while the BoJ loosened its YCC. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

What impact will the BoJ's policy adjustment have on the FX market? | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2023 8:40

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the BoJ's decision to make YCC more flexible and recent policy updates from the ECB and Fed. Will the BoE deliver another hawkish policy update in the week ahead?

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US Market Open: European bourses mixed, US equities bid, JPY flat post-BoJ; German HICP & US PCE due

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2023 3:41

BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 0.5%).At the post-meeting presser, BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the need for continued monetary easing, stating that the bank is prepared to further ease policy if required.European equities are a mixed bag as the dust settles on yesterday's ECB announcement and the overnight BoJ release.US equity futures are trading on the front foot, as positivity seemingly returns following a sell-off in stocks yesterday, after the hot data prints yesterday and ahead of today's top-tier data.DXY briefly topped 102.00 earlier in the European morning, JPY whipsawed during the BoJ release and now trades with mild gains, and AUD lags ahead of next week's RBA.Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone Economic Sentiment, German HICP (Prelim.), US Personal Income, Consumption, PCE & Employment Costs, Earnings from Air France, BBVA, Intesa Sanpaolo, Sanofi, Vinci, Exxon, Chevron, P&G.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Europe Market Open: BoJ kept policy Unch. but will guide YCC more flexibly; German HICP due

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2023 3:14

BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 50bps).APAC stocks are mixed with underperformance in the Nikkei 225 as markets digest the fallout from the BoJ.European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 2.3% yesterday.JPY is the standout outperformer in the FX space with USD/JPY whipsawing amid the confusion in the aftermath of the BoJ.Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone Economic Sentiment, German HICP (Prelim.), US Personal Income, Consumption, PCE & Employment Costs, Earnings from Air France, BBVA, Intesa Sanpaolo, Sanofi, Vinci, Exxon, Chevron, P&G. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

BoJ YCC Policy Update with a Tokyo Perspective | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2023 14:40

Next week is a busy schedule for the financial markets with the FOMC, ECB and BoJ all meeting. Ahead of the BoJ meeting specifically, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Sumino Kamei, Senior Analyst, Global Markets, to discuss possible outcomes of the BoJ meeting. Sumino provides an update on market expectations from a Tokyo perspective following the BoJ comments this week that has seen YCC speculation subside and explains why MUFG Bank continues to think a change in policy could happen. Derek provides his thoughts on the FX impact and possible broader market implications.

head tokyo policy fx ecb global markets week ahead senior analyst fomc boj ycc

US Market Open: BoJ sources spark dovish reaction in JPY & JGBs, effects seen in broader assets

God Conversations with Tania Harris

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2023 2:35

BoJ sources around YCC spark marked dovish reaction in JPY and JGBs, which has filtered through to broader assetsDXY back above 101.00 with USD/JPY testing 142.00; action which eroded GBP's retail-driven upsideEuropean/US equity benchmarks relatively contained, Tech hit by SAP while NQ benefits from yield actionJGB upside briefly lifts peers with EGBs/USTs struggling for direction while Gilts slip on dataCrude largely resilient to the USD's upside with base metals underpinned on Chinese stimulus, XAU pressuredLooking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from American Express & SchlumbergerRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

tech chinese effects spark assets usd sap american express earnings forex broader equities fixed income boj us markets gbp dovish nq jpy ycc usd jpy gilts jgbs

Japan: Finding Opportunity Across Sectors

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2023 8:08

As Japan anticipates shifts in structural policy and GDP growth, these are the industries within the market that are poised to benefit. Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya, Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi, and Japan Senior Advisor Robert Feldman discuss.----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Takeshi Yamaguchi: I'm Takeshi Yamaguchi, Chief Japan Economist. Robert Feldman: And I'm Robert Feldman, Japan Senior Advisor. Chetan Ahya: Yesterday I discussed broad economic contours of Morgan Stanley's constructive view on Japan. Today, in the second installment of our special three part episode on Japan, we will dig deeper into the implications of the shift in Japan's nominal GDP path, the outlook for BOJ policy, as well as the outlook for structural reforms. It's Thursday, July 20th at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. Robert Feldman: And 10 a.m. in Tokyo. Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, let's start here. The change in inflation dynamics that I covered on yesterday's episode could mean a momentous shift in Japan's nominal GDP path. Maybe you could start here with you walking us through some of the key implications of this shift. Takeshi Yamaguchi: Yes, Japan's nominal GDP has been in a flat range for many years, since 1990's after the collapse of the asset bubble. But now it's finally getting out of the range, and we expect this trend of positive nominal GDP growth to continue over the medium term. I think there are mainly three implications from economists' viewpoints. First, we expect compensation of employees, that's the amount taken by workers, and corporate earnings to grow at the same time. Before it was like a zero sum game with almost no nominal GDP growth, but now we expect a bigger economic pie which should benefit both workers and companies. Japan's wage trend is already improving after strong spring wage negotiations this year. Second, we think that the revival of positive nominal GDP growth will improve Japan's fiscal sustainability. We are already seeing a big increase in tax revenue with strong nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile, we expect the average interest costs or interest burden to increase only gradually due to monetary policy and also because average maturity of Japanese government bonds exceeds nine years. And finally, we think the outlook of higher nominal GDP growth strength should have some positive impact on asset prices, including equity prices. This is not the only reason behind the recent equity market moves, but the likely shift in the nominal GDP growth trend is playing some role here in our view. Chetan Ahya: Another question I want to ask is around the Bank of Japan's yield curve control program. You're expecting the BOJ to adjust its policy around yield curve control program at the upcoming policy in end July, which would be the second shift in monetary policy stance last December. Do you see further shifts in monetary policy and would it disrupt the virtuous cycle we are forecasting? Takeshi Yamaguchi: At that July monetary policy meeting we don't expect the BOJ to get rid of YCC, the yield curve control framework, but we expect the BOJ to change the conduct of YCC by allowing more fluctuations of ten year JGB yields, potentially to plus/minus 1%, around 0%. And that said, we think the BOJ governor Ueda directly emphasized that the 2% inflation target is still not achieved in a sustainable manner. So we expect the BOJ to maintain the current short term policy rate of -0.1% after the YCC adjustment. In the third quarter next year we expect the BOJ to exit negative interest rate policy after observing another round of solid spring wage negotiations. But even so, Japan's real interest rates would remain extremely low for some time. So we think the virtuous cycle we've been highlighting will likely remain intact. Chetan Ahya: Thank you, Yamaguchi-San. Robbie, let me turn it over to you. Japan has been feeling increasing pressure from demographics and other factors at home and geopolitics abroad. And so in response it's developing a new grand strategy and undergoing a number of structural reforms. You believe these reforms could lead to higher growth, walk us through why you feel so positive. Robert Feldman: Thanks, Chetan. Structural reforms are being triggered by both market forces and policy. The market forces are technology change, labor shortage, geopolitical pressures, higher interest rates, pricing power from the end of deflation and supply chain derisking. The policy forces are corporate governance changes, immigration law changes, startup policies, monetary policy and climate and sustainability policy. There are lots of market forces and lots of policy forces behind these changes. Chetan Ahya: In what industries do you expect to see the biggest changes? Robert Feldman: There are five industries where I think there will be major changes. And other industries, of course, will have them as well, but these five industries could even be subject to disruption. These are energy, agriculture, AI and I.T., health care and education. Let me say a couple words about each. In energy Japan has been a little bit behind some other countries in introducing renewables, but it's catching up. A particularly promising is offshore wind, and especially offshore floating wind. There still has to be some cost reductions, but there's a lot of interest and Japan has huge resources in this area. In agriculture Japan is 60% dependent on foreign countries for total calorie intake. Moreover, about 10% of the agricultural land in the country is lying unused. That's because of land law issues, etc. and vested interests, but there's huge opportunity there. AI and IT, this is where probably progress has been the fastest because of the labor shortage. Japan views AI and IT as a savior because this labor shortage is just so intense. Health care, Japan is an old country and it's getting older, health care costs are going up and so it's imperative that living standards be maintained in the health care area through lower costs and better effectiveness. Japan has a good healthcare system, but it's under a lot of monetary pressure and that's why the technology changes are so important. And finally, education. If technology is going to spread, we need workers who are educated in the new technology. And that's where reskilling and recurrent education, lifelong education will become so, so important. This will be primarily a private sector initiative because government is focused on standard, primary, secondary education. So there's a lot of opportunity in the education business. There are 72 listed companies in education in Japan. Chetan Ahya: And how much progress has been made so far on these structural reforms? And what does the timeline look from here? Robert Feldman: Progress has been fastest in AI and IT, because the labor shortage is so intense. AI is viewed as a savior here in Japan rather than with the trepidation in some other countries, due to this labor shortage. We've also seen good progress in energy in a number of fields hydrogen, solar, carbon capture, wind and ammonia. Health care has seen much progress within hospitals where IT platforms are quite advanced at administrative functions. Agriculture has been slower, but there are amazing advances in vertical farming. On the timeline these changes are happening now and likely to see significant momentum in the next 2 to 3 years. There is no time to waste and I'm expecting very rapid progress, particularly in AI/IT, energy and health care. Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, Robbie, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Takeshi Yamaguchi: Great speaking with you, Chetan. Robert Feldman: Thanks for having us. Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. Tomorrow, I will return for part three of the special segments on Japan. My guest will be Daniel Blake, our Asia equity strategist. We will discuss the market implications of our constructive Japan macro outlook and what investors should pay attention to. If you Enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

(079) Working with Holy Spirit in the Community – Adam Dyer

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2023 42:26

Ps. Adam Dyer grew up with the "Titanic Gospel.” Here, the only thing that mattered was people's “souls.” The "ship was going down" so, you had to get as many people to heaven as possible before they died. This perspective failed him as a child and, along with the moral failure of his pastor (his father!), led him through a process of deconstruction as a young adult. Later, God called him into pastoral ministry and he reluctantly obeyed. His question at the time was, "where did the church go wrong and how can we do it differently?" On this episode of the God Conversations podcast, Tania and Adam discuss a much bigger gospel than the "Titanic Gospel" and show how the Spirit works both inside and outside the church to bring about the reconciliation of all things. The Gospel.. “should be good news for everybody, not just good news for a few and terrible news for everybody else.” In the podcast, Adam: Tells his personal story of deconstruction as he struggled with the person of Jesus and the church who had failed him. Shares his hearing God experiences and how as a young boy, he just “knew stuff about people. For Adam, “sensing the Spirit moving was like sherbet running through my veins.” Reminds us that the Spirit isn't just what shows up when “we sing the right songs and get the right key change.” The Spirit shows up in families who are trying to navigate chaos and brokenness. “When you encounter Jesus in the homeless person, you encounter a different Jesus to the sanitised version you might sing about on Sunday morning.” Tells the story of woman on suicide watch and how volunteering with the church's homeless program (even as a non-Christian) saved her life. Shares the conviction that if God is involved in community, the whole community should be blessed whether they believe in Jesus or not. Tells a story about the signs of spirit at work when a formerly homeless woman bought a stack of potato crisps (chips!) from the supermarket and insisted on giving them out. Shows us how to work with the Spirit inside and outside the church. “It's not about about choreographing the Spirit. We create space for God to do things. It's a posture shift… God is saying 'Stop trying to do things for me!'" Subscribe to God Conversations with Tania Harris and never miss an episode! Ps. Adam Dyer is leader of Yeovil Community Church in the south west of England. YCC is a vibrant church who is pioneering in community transformation. Adam is also the executive director of Jesus Collective and the author of Unknown: What if God's Not Like That? He is married to Rachel who also leads at YCC, and together they have four children and two grandchildren. Find Adam at: Jesus Collective Yeovil Community Church UK Adam's Book: Unknown: What if God's Not Like That?

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Federal Reserve vs BoJ policy – USD/JPY reversal: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2023 11:15

Following the US jobs report from the US and ahead of the CPI data next week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses with Michael Owen, MUFG's Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, the consequences for Fed policy, rates and the US dollar. Derek also discusses the outperformance of the Japanese yen this week, highlighting developments that point to risks of a YCC change at the next BoJ policy meeting on 28th July. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

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Global Data Pod Weekender: Big week for G3 central banks

fed institutional central banks big week ecb boj g3 weekender global data jpmorgan chase co ycc

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2023 22:32

While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week's G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed's pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Egon von Greyerz: The West Will Go the Way of Debt Implosion & Inflation

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 59:37

Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG based in Switzerland. He explains how the debt ceiling is a farce, and a regular show every time it's reached. It's been raised over a hundred times and every time, it's nothing but a political posturing. This is only going to lead to the debt being increased exponentially. Firesince Reagan, the U.S. debt has doubled every eight years, and by 2025, it is projected to reach around $40 trillion. The Fed will likely reach a point where it will no longer be able to control the interest rates. This signifies a dire situation that is further complicated by the fact that no one wants to buy bonds from a country that is technically bankrupt. To try and keep the debt at bay, the U.S. will most likely deploy inflationary tactics, resulting in an increase in prices. Looking at the macroeconomic scenario, investing in gold is the way to go to safeguard assets from the insecurity caused by risky assets. Additionally, Egon emphasizes that banks in the E.U. are no better off than those in the United States, and the current economic system would have worked much better if supply and demand were allowed to rule, as opposed to the continuous government interference. Finally, we are seeing a decline in the West, which could potentially lead to occasional conflict. Nevertheless, Egon advises that we help each other to make it through this rocky patch, as it's going to be difficult for everyone no matter what. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - U.S. Debt Ceilings6:13 - Debt Pool Analogy11:16 - YCC & C.B. Purchases13:40 - Banking Contagion23:54 - Bail-In Concerns27:02 - EU & Western Banking32:05 - What Breaks Next?35:00 - Eastern Nations & Gold42:36 - Domestic Gold Production47:57 - Gold Price & Meaning51:08 - Inflation End-Game54:55 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Why the U.S. Debt Ceiling is just politcal posturing.European banks are just as bad off as the United States.The West is in decline and it will take time to correct. Guest Links:Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland Egon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG. He started Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) in 1999 as a private investment company. From the very beginning, wealth preservation was an essential cornerstone of the company. In early 2002, they believed that financial and economic risk in the World was getting uncomfortably high. So that year, they made substantial investments in the physical gold market at $300 on average. As gold started to rise in the early 2000s, demand for physical gold increased, and in 2005 they set up a regulated company in Zurich - Matterhorn Asset Management AG. A couple of years later, they formed GoldSwitzerland, which is the precious metals division of MAM. Egon was Born with both Swiss and Swedish citizenship. His education was mainly in Sweden. He started his working life in Geneva as a banker and after he spent 17 years as Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. Since the 1990s, Egon has been actively involved with financial investment activities, including mergers and acquisitions and Asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of MAM, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is now the World's leading company for physical gold and silver outside the banking system, directly owned by the investor. Their four vaults include the most immense and safest gold vault in the World, located in the Swiss Alps. Clients are High Net Worth Individuals, Family Offices, Pension Funds, Investment Funds, and Trusts in over 75 countries. Egon makes regular media appearances and speaks at investment conferences around the World. He also publishes articles on precious metals, the world economy, and wealth preservation.

Jessica Yatrofsky Chats Body Politics,Film and Photography

The Journey Told

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2023 26:23

Jessica Yatrofsky is a NYC-based artist and activist, known for film and photographic work exploring body politics, beauty, and gender. After receiving her MFA from Parsons the New School for Design, she published her first photography monograph, I Heart Boy, with powerHouse Books in 2010, and her second photography monograph, I Heart Girl, in 2015 with her accompanying film "I Heart Girl - Video Screen Tests," capturing over 100 women featured in her series. The film premiered with i-D Magazine in 2016. Her photographic work has been exhibited internationally in addition to book signings with Barnes&Noble and Strand Books in NYC. In 2015, her film SUN IN MY MOUTH received an Honorable Mention in the LGBTQ “All Out Arts” Fresh Fruit Festival as well as screened during the Northside Film Festival in Brooklyn, New York. In 2016, Yatrofsky was featured in the cover story THE NEW PROGRESSIVES for the “Activists Issue” in Interview Magazine. Her work was featured in the NSFW:Female Gaze group exhibition at the Museum of Sex in NYC from 2017-2018. Yatrofsky's work is part of the permanent collection at the Leslie-Lohman Museum for Gay and Lesbian Art. In 2016, Yatrofsky founded the NY FEM FACTORY, a feminist collective that has hosted and curated literary readings, art exhibitions, and live immersive events in North America and Europe coinciding with the release of her debut book of poetry Pink Privacy. Yatrofsky and the NY FEM FACTORY recently completed a residency at the experimental Institut fur Alles Mogliche in Berlin including collaborations with Soho House Berlin and the German woman's publication, Libertin Magazine. In 2017, Yatrofsky and NY FEM FACTORY curated a live activation for “Performance is Alive” in the Satellite Art Show during Art Basel Miami. In 2018, Yatrofsky and the NY FEM FACTORY curated a reading featuring local female poets hosted with the Ace Hotel in NYC. This winter Yatrofsky and NY FEM FACTORY will cohost the YCC in Miami Beach, FL at the PULSE Art Fair that includes a live performance and curated installation for PULSE PROJECTS. Yatrofsky has curated panel discussions and hosted literary events with The Battery in San Francisco, CA, The Standard in both West Hollywood, CA and Miami, FL as well as participated in artist lectures for the Camera Club of New York, The Robert Giard Foundation, and the International Center for Photography in NYC. From 2016-2017, the Soho House hosted her touring conversation series “Gender Beauty & the Camera.” In 2019, Yatrofsky moderated a PULSE PERSPECTIVES panel discussion on “Art, Mindfulness & the Power of Community” in conversation with SAG actor Tiffany Lighty. Tune in for this in-depth conversation which focuses on all things in the creative process! 1:02-I am an artist 4:36-Inspiration Behind the Lens 7:38-Observing The Surroundings11:11-Art Style-Giving Everyone A Voice 14:57-Being A Film Movie Lover 19:29-3 tips for Artists 20:20-Upcoming Projects 24:04-I am Tell and Tell Secret:I am a solid speed cuber. I solve the rubik's cubeTell and Tell Secret: "I have been cutting my own hair since I was 16 years old"Follow Jessica: Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/jyatrofsky Follow Shawn Zanotti at http://www.thejourneytold.com or http://www.exactpublicity.com Instagram - http://www.instagram.com/publicistshawn Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/shawnzanottihttps://www.thejourneytold.com/Facebook: https://www,facebook.com/thejourneytoldshowInstagram:...

Vincent Lanci: The Most Important Weekly Close for Gold Ever

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2023 71:19

Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show to discuss the importance of this week's gold close. If it is the highest ever, it could mean bullish continuation trends as money gets reallocated. He noted the changes he has seen in the gold market, such as Basel III putting a floor in gold, and the eastward shift of gold demand. He discussed the lack of trust in the metals markets, the differences between gold and silver, and the correlations between different commodities. Vincent discussed the potential path forward for inflation in the context of the current recession, and the actions the 'BRICS' are taking to separate their economies from US dollar hegemony. He outlined Zoltan Pozsar's concept of the "Three Prices of Money," where investors should have a piece of the old economy, a piece of the potential new economy, and a bridge between the two. Overall, Vince discussed why this week's gold close is so important, and how investors should be prepared to navigate a changing economy as businesses move to other countries and new technologies and renewable energy sources become more prevalent. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Golds Performance9:10 - Inflection Points14:43 - Gold Flowing East20:53 - Manipulation & Trust25:18 - Silver Lagging?29:58 - Other Commodities35:14 - Recession & Inflation41:08 - Long Gold & Short Bonds42:44 - Zoltan Pozsar & BRICS47:00 - Exter's Pyramid49:37 - Bond Demand, YCC & Japan59:20 - Actionable Advice1:06:35 - Bullion'N'Boobs1:09:56 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode This week's gold close could potentially be the highest weekly, monthly and quarterly close ever, signaling bullish continuation trends.Price leadership has moved east due to the East-West cold war and de-globalization, resulting in more gold flowing east and a potential end of the petro dollar.Zoltan Pozsar's idea of the three goals suggests investors should own a piece of the old economy (black gold), a piece of the potential new economy (white gold), and a bridge between the two (yellow gold) to prepare for the US dollar weakening in buying power. Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/PalisadesTomSpecialWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge. In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN. From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time. From 1993-2003 Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000 he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.

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Global Data Pod Research Rap: A new BoJ Governor and exiting YCC

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2023 24:45

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Ayako Fujita and Benjamin Shatil to discuss the latest developments in the Bank of Japan's path towards monetary policy normalization. We do not expect the new BoJ nominations to materially affect the timing of YCC removal which we still see taking place around mid-2023. However, rising demand-side pressures on prices and growing market pressures suggest risks are for an earlier move. Our forecast also anticipates an eventual exit from negative interest rates (NIRP) by 2024. The BoJ's shift will have important implications for capital flows and the yen as Japanese investors continue to rotate investments from foreign assets back to domestic debt. This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332950-0.pdf https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4310608-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4316195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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Bitcoin Cycles Dead?? - Daily Live 12.30.22 | E292

Bitcoin & Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 31, 2022 29:44

Full show notes with links and charts: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e292/ Telegram https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets Twitter for Spaces https://twitter.com/AnselLindner FREE weekly newsletter https://tinyurl.com/2chhbnff

BTC110: Japanese Credit Markets, Bitcoin, & Nostr w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast)

We Study Billionaires - The Investorâ€™s Podcast Network

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2022 53:11

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:01:53 - What is Nostr and why is it so important to Bitcoin and free speech?05:31 - Japan adjusting their YCC peg to a higher yield and what that means.26:27 - What impact does Japan's move have on other economies?28:47 - How does James see 2023 playing out?29:38 - Will the potential disinflation in the US help lower prices in Europe?32:42 - What's causing the inflation in the EU and is it solvable?34:56 - Paper Bitcoin and the impacts moving forward after the FTX situation.39:56 - China and it's COVID policy as it relates to global demand and inflation.45:38 - Is the US getting ready to go through disinflation?54:48 - What are some things happening in the Bitcoin space that excites James the most?Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESMore information about Nostr.Jame Lavish's Newsletter.Jame's Twitter.Related Episode: The Debt Spiral Defined w/ James Lavish - BTC093.Related Episode: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish - BTC084.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSInvest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Have gold and silver shipped directly to your door for you to hold at your home. Get BullionMax's Gold Investor Kit today - 3 ounces of the world's most desirable gold coins, including the Gold American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.Get position and investment info for nearly 6,000 Asset Management Companies with Moomoo, Australia's first A.I. powered trading platform. Sign up and fund your moomoo account before October 31 and get $10 for every $100 you deposit. All investment carries risk. AFSL 224 663. T&Cs apply.Enjoy 10% off your first booking in Viator's world of over 300,000 experiences you'll remember. Download the Viator app now and use code VIATOR10.In a world of probabilities, trade the possibilities with Pepperstone.Start building a portfolio of alternative farm and timberland assets with AcreTrader.If you're aware you need to improve your bitcoin security but have been putting it off, Unchained Capital's Concierge Onboarding is a simple way to get started—sooner rather than later. Book your onboarding today and at checkout, get $50 off with the promo code FUNDAMENTALS.Guess less and sell more with the Number 1 email marketing and automation brand, Intuit Mailchimp.Thanks to rising interest rates artificially driving down the prices of even the best assets, Fundrise expects 2023 to be one of the most opportune real estate investing environments of the last decade. Take advantage of this unique investing environment.Send, spend, and receive money around the world easily with Wise.Ship with FedEx and be ready for this holiday season with picture proof of delivery.Monitor your recovery, sleep, training, and health, with personalized recommendations and coaching feedback with WHOOP. Use code WSB to save 10% off your order today.Give your family and friends Omaha Steaks, a gift that will be remembered with every unforgettable bite. Use promo code WSB at checkout to get that EXTRA $30 OFF your order.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why Yield Curve Control Failed - FedWatch 124

Bitcoin Magazine

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 57:30

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / RSS Slide deck for episode Our podcast feed has changed to the Bitcoin Magazine feed! Subscribe here! Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other, with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary financial system's breakdown leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. In this episode, CK and I dive deep into yield curve control (YCC), after a discussion of bitcoin and other macro charts like the dollar and US Treasury yields. What is YCC, what are its aims, has it been successful, can it ever be successful? Of course, we look at this both from a general perspective but also specifically in the case of Japan, since the big news this week was the Bank of Japan (BOJ) relaxed their YCC band from +/- 0.25% to +/- 0.5%. Our last topic of the day is the 2nd and final revision to US Q3 real GDP. It increased from the original estimate of 2.9% to 3.2% annualized. This is fairly big news, because so many people are utterly convinced the US is about to experience a horrible and deep recession in 2023. The main influences in Q3 and likely in Q4, have been a plunging nominal GDP and plunging price effects. Therefore, it becomes a race of which falls faster, GDP or “inflation” as to whether the real GDP will be negative or positive. Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram (link) for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com (link) to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io Status Credit Card - https://statusmoney.com/card Crowd Health - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/bitcoin Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/ Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/ Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro

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Financial Market Preview - Wednesday 21-Dec