Podcasts about fed policy

In this episode, we discuss tariffs, inflation/Fed policy, the spending bill, and our outlook for the second half of 2025. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stifel Financial Corp. or its affiliates (collectively, Stifel). This communication is provided for information purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. © Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated | Member SIPC & NYSE | www.stifel.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you've been enjoying The Independent Advisors podcast for a while now and want to take the next step in your financial journey, I'd encourage you to head to our website, jessupwealthmanagement.com. Matt offers a 15-minute initial call where you can discuss your financial goals and see if JWM is a good fit for your needs. Scheduling is easy—once you land at jessupwealthmanagement.com just click “Schedule Initial Call” and select a time that works best for you!  There's a quick survey to fill out that will help guide the conversation and ensure your time is used efficiently. If you're ready to learn more, visit jessupwealthmanagement.com and book your call today! Show Notes:·       US airstrikes on Iran resulted in stocks rising 1% while crude oil fell 9% ·       Markets climbing a ‘wall of worry' despite geopolitical risks ·       Currency impact on multinationals explained·       Rare market recovery pattern showing S&P 500 rallying from -18% ·       NASDAQ QQQ golden cross formed for first time since March 2023·       Small Cap vs Large Cap Analysis ·       Future Economic Scenarios and Fed Policy 

Mortgage and real estate expert David Hochberg joins John Williams to talk about Trump’s tax bill and the increase in the SALT cap, where mortgage interest rates are right now, the relationship between the Fed policy and mortgage rates, and to answer all of your mortgage and real estate questions. David hosts “Home Sweet Home Chicago” […]

Mortgage and real estate expert David Hochberg joins John Williams to talk about Trump’s tax bill and the increase in the SALT cap, where mortgage interest rates are right now, the relationship between the Fed policy and mortgage rates, and to answer all of your mortgage and real estate questions. David hosts “Home Sweet Home Chicago” […]

Mortgage and real estate expert David Hochberg joins John Williams to talk about Trump’s tax bill and the increase in the SALT cap, where mortgage interest rates are right now, the relationship between the Fed policy and mortgage rates, and to answer all of your mortgage and real estate questions. David hosts “Home Sweet Home Chicago” […]

Consumer Spending and Incomes going down was a standout in the latest PCE data, says Mish Schneider. The slight uptick in core inflation to 2.7% was more than expected, but "not a huge surprise" to her. She posits the question: is the U.S. economy showing signs of disinflation or stagflation? Mish says there are 3 major factors where we go from here: oil prices, Fed Policy and the "Big, Beautiful Bill." In terms of positioning, she likes Silver, "Made in the USA" companies, E.V. and Solar companies. Later, she makes the case for staying in Rivian (RIVN) and Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and other news to look forward to this week on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx

On Monday's Charles Schwab Big Picture panel, Collin Martin reacts to commentary from several Fed officials that suggest a bigger dovish voice may be heard in the FOMC's July meeting. He adds that his perspective hasn't changed saying a September cut is more likely, adding that recent data doesn't appear to be enough to justify a cut in July. Collin looks ahead to Friday's PCE Index, saying a good report would be a "step in the right direction" but cautions investors that tariff risks may not have been fully felt across the economy.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Moneywise Radio Show and Podcast Tuesday, June 17th BE MONEYWISE. Moneywise Wealth Management I "The Moneywise Guys" podcast call: 661-847-1000 text in anytime: 661-396-1000 website: www.MoneywiseGuys.com facebook: Moneywise_Wealth_Management Guest: Allyn Medeiros, Agape Mortgage website: https://allynmedeiros.com/  

Glenn Hubbard, Columbia Business School Dean Emeritus and former White House chief economist discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and the path forward for interest rates this year as well as the tax bill making its way through Congress.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we welcome back Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market blog, for a comprehensive breakdown of the U.S. jobs report, Fed policy trajectory, global central bank trends, and FX market implications. We kick off with May's mixed U.S. employment report: headline job growth surprised to the upside, but revisions and the household survey painted a weaker picture. Marc explains how the Fed will likely interpret this as confirmation to remain patient, with expectations for rate cuts shifting to Q4 and markets increasingly skeptical about more than one cut in 2025. Marc also discusses: Why the resilient U.S. labor market and gradual disinflation keep the Fed sidelined How ongoing tariff announcements are distorting GDP and trade data What to watch in the Fed's balance sheet strategy and whether QT will continue A global view on divergent central bank cycles, FX implications, and why Marc remains medium-term bearish on the U.S. dollar The role of liquidity and uncertainty in driving volatile but not collapsing markets As we near the midpoint of 2025, Marc outlines the key data points and global risks that could move the needle on Fed policy, including inflation trends, unemployment, and fiscal disruptions from trade policies.

Jon Hartley and Randal Quarles discuss Randy's career as a lawyer and in policy (including his time as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Regulation) and topics such as the global financial crisis, Glass-Steagall, banking regulation, lender of last resort, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, the potential relaxation of Treasuries in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and stablecoin regulation. Recorded on May 29, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Randal Quarles is the Chairman and co-founder of The Cynosure Group.  Before founding Cynosure, Mr. Quarles was a long-time partner of the Carlyle Group, where he began the firm's program of investments in the financial services industry during the 2008 financial crisis. From October 2017 through October 2021, Mr. Quarles was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, serving as the system's first Vice Chairman for Supervision, charged specifically with ensuring stability of the financial sector.  He also served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) from December 2018 until December 2021; a global body established after the Great Financial Crisis to coordinate international efforts to enhance financial stability. In both positions, he played a key role in crafting the US and international response to the economic and financial dislocations of COVID-19, successfully preventing widespread global disruption of the financial system.  As FSB Chairman, he was a regular delegate to the finance ministers' meetings of the G-7 and G20 Groups of nations and to the Summit meetings of the G20.  As Fed Vice Chair, he was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets monetary policy for the United States. Earlier in his career, Mr. Quarles was Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, where he led the Department's activities in financial sector and capital markets policy, including coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. Before serving as Under Secretary, Mr. Quarles was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, where he had a key role in responding to several international crises.  Mr. Quarles was also the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, a member of the Air Transportation Stabilization Board, and a board representative for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. In earlier public service, he was an integral member of the Treasury team in the George H. W. Bush Administration that developed the governmental response to the savings and loan crisis. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Research Fellow at the UT-Austin Civitas Institute, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon is also the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star, among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper.  ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics.

Andy Constan, chief investment officer of Damped Spring Advisors, said a combination of potential expenditure cuts, which he estimates at around $300 billion per year, represents the largest fiscal tightening of his lifetime. Constan joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey, chief US strategist, and Will Hoffman, US/CAD senior rates strategy associate, on this episode of Macro Matters to discuss all things interest rates. They talk about some of the biggest bond market myths as well as the path forward for the Fed's balance sheet as quantitative tightening downshifted into low gear. The trio also discuss the likelihood for shifts in Treasury issuance as well as where monetary policy and bond yields may be headed. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Segment 1: Business reporter Steve Alexander chats with John about Warren Buffett announcing he will be stepping down and the impact he’s had on the economy. Segment 2: Emily Stewart, Senior Correspondent, Business Insider, tells John how wealthy people are single-handedly warding off a recession. Segment 2: Phillip Shaw, CFP, Senior Advisor, Goldstone Financial Group, joins John […]

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us to unpack another turbulent week in the markets, a look into better than anticipated economic data, whether or not we are heading towards a recession in the US, global trade tensions between the US and China, key factors for the US dollar and interest rates, the propensity of the Fed to cut rates this year, and international markets tempered by falling oil prices.   Key Insights discussed:   Tariff concerns ended up fueling buying into late Q1, potentially pulling demand forward from the future.  Mark described this as:  “We are eating our corn seed, and bringing forward economic activity that may have been a Q2 or Q3 event.”   Survey data, which is considered soft economic data, continues to be weak; but the real sector hard data, so far, has been holding up fairly well.  There was a good inflation reading and a solid jobs number, so hard data holding up better than soft data.   Several weeks ago, in mid-April, all we read or heard about in financial media were calls for an imminent recession or even another depression.   Now after a few weeks of the markets rallying, and stronger than expected economic data, those proclamations for an immediate contraction have become more muted. So are all those concerns now off the table?    Mark doesn't believe a recession is imminent, but notes “We did have one quarter now of negative growth, and then you look a what the Atlanta Fed says, tracking a 1.1% annualized pace for Q2…  but I'm still in the camp that there is a shadow crossing America around now.  We are only in the early stages of it, like a slow moving trainwreck.”   There are the drying up of container shipment from China to the US ports, and that activity is slowing down.  “It's possible that we see through all this – that this is just noise, but I think something fundamental is going on when the worlds two largest economies have an embargo against one another. And that's what these high tariffs mean.  It doesn't make sense really to trade with each other.”   “You've got the ports and then you have the trucks… the logistics companies. This all doesn't even take into account yet all the layoffs in the US government or the restrictions in immigration…and, the consumer boycott in Europe and Canada against US brands, and the drying up of tourism from foreign bookings.”   Marc is concerned that we are at the edge of an economic contraction and notes that some analyst point to certain segments of the economy that appear to already be in a recession.   The US dollar has moved down to either side of that 100 level of support.  Marc points out that “the dollar index peaked about a week before President Trump's inauguration, and it has been sliding ever since.  He noted that it was significant that the dollar index got back up above that 100 level, because he sees an inverse head and shoulders bottom with a neckline at 100.20.  If we can get some closes above that level, then it projects up to 102.40 or so.”   Marc goes on to note the better-than-expected jobs data, the rise in interest rates, and the dollar momentum indicators that were oversold as more reasons he is expecting a bounce in the greenback.   With regards to Fed policy, the market moved from pricing in 4 rate cuts to 3 rate cuts this year, but that is still more dovish than the central bank's messaging of 2 expected rate cuts in 2025.   In addition to the bounce in the US equity markets and US dollar, we've also seen a bounce in international markets. Marc remains skeptical of the health of the global economy, and points to the sell down in oil prices as the markets looking forward to less growth globally.   Click here to visit Marc's site – Marc To Market. 

On this episode of Next Level CRE, Matt Faircloth interviews Neal Bawa, known as the “mad scientist of multifamily,” live from Best Ever Conference. They dive into Neal's preparation for the BEC real estate debate on whether the Fed has stuck a soft landing, highlighting key data points like wage growth outpacing rent growth and the Fed's dual tools for market intervention. Neal also shares his actual market outlook—separating his debate stance from his real views—stating he is bullish on rent growth but cautious on cap rates and interest rates due to fiscal pressures. He ends with a tactical nugget: target markets like Indianapolis with strong rent growth, low property taxes, and limited new supply. Neal Bawa -CEO - Based in: San Francisco, California - Say hi to them at multifamilyu.com/ Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at https://www.stamps.com/cre. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at www.bestevercommunity.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Debt-Driven Reality: Understanding CRE's Structural Fragility Cracks Beneath the Surface In this episode of The Real Estate Market Watch, I sit down with Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital, to explore the increasingly fragile foundation of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Winick draws on decades of experience in loan portfolio sales, banking, CMBS investing, and student housing to deliver a sobering, detail-rich assessment of what's coming next — and what's already hiding in plain sight.   The Fed, Interest Rates, and the “Nuclear Option” Trump vs. Powell: Market Implications Winick opens with a sharp critique of political interference in Federal Reserve policy. While the idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell may feel remote, he warns that even sustained political pressure has consequences. Removing Powell — the so-called "nuclear option" — would spark chaos in capital markets, undermining global confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. “You cannot find an industry in which debt matters more than commercial real estate,” Winick says. A destabilized bond market affects CRE indirectly but profoundly by tightening liquidity and depressing investor confidence.   CRE's Dependency on Debt: Liquidity as Lifeblood Why CRE Suffers When Capital Tightens With rates elevated and uncertainty rising, Winick highlights the outsized role debt plays in CRE. Unlike most industries, capital structure is everything in real estate. Higher interest rates are more than a cost issue—they erode the viability of deals outright. His analogy lands hard: “Low rates are like tequila on a first date. High rates are like a glass of warm milk.”   Banking Behavior: The Art of Delay Defaults, Loan Maturities, and Creative Accounting Despite rising delinquencies in CMBS, bank-reported CRE loan delinquencies remain surprisingly low. Why? Banks, Winick argues, are benefiting from regulatory changes that let them defer the recognition of problem loans. “The delinquencies that you're seeing in CMBS and bank loans will inevitably converge. Banks have been able to use some new rules to hide problem loans. And eventually that [runway] runs out.” he says. Bank defaults may not be catastrophic, but their opacity clouds the picture for investors trying to assess real risk.   Creative Destruction Denied Why Bailouts Delay the Inevitable Winick argues the post-COVID economy is still “wrapped up by actual or indirect fraud.” From subsidized mortgages to suspended student loan collections, unsustainable federal programs have kept weak assets and businesses afloat. He makes a provocative case for embracing creative destruction. “We've basically decided as a society that we won't let businesses fail… but that's ultimately bad economics.”   Policy, Regulation, and the Supply-Demand Trap Deregulation and its Unintended Consequences Dodd-Frank's unintended effect was to choke off consumer credit, particularly in regions with few lenders. Winick compares Puerto Rico, with just three banks, to Iowa, with the same size population as Puerto Rico, with 246. The result? Higher interest rates, limited options, and an underfinanced economy. He calls for “smart, effective regulation,” warning that over-regulation concentrates power while under-regulation invites asset bubbles.   The Signals to Watch Now What CRE Investors Should Be Monitoring Winick identifies several canaries in the coal mine for CRE investors: Widening CMBS credit spreads: These are leading indicators of borrowing cost pressures. Corporate bankruptcies and retail closures: Especially among large tenants like Walgreens or government departments exiting leases. Shifts in political winds: Regulatory reversals could radically alter CRE's operating environment. Strategy: What Should CRE Investors Be Doing? Be Patient, but Be Realistic For investors sitting on cash, Winick's advice is pragmatic: “Be patient… [but] waiting for a home run often means you miss out on a lot of great opportunities.” He urges caution and downside awareness in every negotiation, pointing out that real movement in the market won't occur until lenders are forced to act or borrowers are out of options.   Final Thought: The Bond Vigilantes Will Win A System Bound by Market Forces Winick closes with a sharp reminder that the bond market, not politicians, sets the true limits: “The bond vigilantes always get their way.” In a world dependent on debt, real estate investors should watch not just interest rates — but who controls the levers behind them.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:   Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

In this explosive episode of Soar Financially, Dr. Judy Shelton—former economic advisor to President Trump and Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute—joins us to deliver a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve and propose bold reforms that could reshape the global financial system.We unpack the true role of the Fed, gold-backed bonds, currency manipulation, Bretton Woods 2.0, and how to restore monetary integrity in America.-Why is the Fed too powerful?- Could gold-backed 50-year bonds anchor the dollar?- And is the U.S. actually “cheating” in global markets?#Gold #federalreserve #goldstandard ------------

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic discusses the Fed's path forward amidst tariffs and inflation. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mike McKee.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 58: Rate Pause, Fed Policy, Recession, Trump's Tariffs, and Macro Outlook for 2025This episode of the Unusual Whales Pod was recorded Live on March 19, 2025. Nicholas is joined by a panel of macro experts to discuss the Fed Rate Pause, Trump's Tariffs, the economy, and how things are looking from a macroeconomic, bird's eye view here in 2025.Panel:Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Thelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngBob Elliott https://x.com/BobEUnlimitedMarko Bjegovic https://x.com/MBjegovicHosted by: Nicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNSUnusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesThis Pod is not financial advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for financial decisions or for investing. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation.Unusual Social Media:Discord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/Merch: https://unusual-whales.creator-spring.com/**

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.Key topics discussed:• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

Segment 1: Sarah Foster, Economic Analyst, Bankrate, joins John in-studio to talk about Fed policy and what we can expect from interest rate cuts, why the inflation target is still at 2%, and why high prices are still a problem. Segment 2: Bree Fowler, Senior Writer, CNET, joins John Williams to talk about Gov. JB Pritzker joining the […]

Craig Shapiro, esteemed hedge fund expert and macro strategist for the Bear Traps Report, joins us for a compelling exploration of the intricate world of Federal Reserve policies and their interplay with artificial intelligence. Unravel the complexities of recent monetary decisions amidst a politically charged atmosphere, as we dissect the impacts on bond markets and business confidence. With inflationary pressures mounting, Craig offers his insightful take on the potential consequences and future directions of Fed policies in a landscape fraught with uncertainty.The conversation takes a strategic turn as we navigate the global investment scene, spotlighting the surge of interest in zero data expiry options for indices like the S&P and NASDAQ. Discover how traditional hedges are reshaping investor tactics amid macroeconomic unpredictability and why equity volatility might be underappreciated right now. From the allure of gold as a fiscal hedge to the implications of geopolitical turbulence on treasury investments, we examine scenarios that could catalyze another S&P surge and evaluate the economic ripple effects of potential Trump policy maneuvers.Our dialogue rounds off by examining Bitcoin's burgeoning role as an alternative store of value amidst global instability. Compare its potential with that of gold and real estate, and consider the geopolitical ramifications of nations folding Bitcoin into their reserves. With deregulation under Trump's lens and opportunities for small-cap growth amidst rising borrowing costs, we reflect on the US's evolving role in a multilateral world. Craig highlights the enduring value of balancing qualitative insights with quantitative data, emphasizing relationship-building within the financial sector. Don't miss Craig's seasoned insights and practical reflections on today's pressing economic issues.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Durable Goods at -2.2% • ISM Survey at 50.9 • U.S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Durable Goods at -2.2% ISM Survey at 50.9 S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)

Chair Powell's attempt to clear up conflicting messaging seemed to make a mess instead. The inflation data will have to do the talking instead. Dave Spano and Brian Jacobsen present our Week-in-Review. We'll cover the Great Baby Boomer Wealth Transfer, insurance coverage (like, how much do you really need?), the role of a Certified Divorce Analyst at Annex, and why you might need an LLC. 

How do market strategies evolve amidst economic shifts, policy adjustments, and investor behavior? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2025 outlook. They delve into economic growth, earnings, policy impacts, and the potential paths for stocks and bonds.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Predictions for stocks growing 12-15% and bonds by 4-7%, with a focus on equitiesObservations on U.S. economic resilience driven by consumer balance sheets and productivityPotential risks from interest rates, housing market stagnation, and a strong dollar's effects on exports and earningsAnticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation trends tied to real estate and wage growthStrategies emphasizing diversified investments, including opportunities in underperforming mid-cap and small-cap sectorsAnd more!Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) No Recession Call (04:04) Fed Meeting (06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates (10:27) US Vs Global Productivity (14:27) Global Growth Outlook (17:12) Inflation Overview (22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities (25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy (29:20) Ads (30:33) Labor Market Overview (35:42) Trump's Potential Immigration Policy (38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs (40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy (47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities (50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment? (52:33) Alternative Assets (55:05) Euro & US Dollar (57:10) Learn More About Jonny's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Featuring: Peter McGuire, CEO of XM Australia Matt Orton, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-daybreak-asia/id1663863437Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Ccfge70zthAgVfm0NVw1bTuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Asian-Talk/Bloomberg-Daybreak-Asia-Edition-p247557/?lang=es-es See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textDiscover how a shift in Federal Reserve policies could be the linchpin for your next big financial move. As the Fed cuts interest rates while hinting at potential hikes in 2025, the real estate market and long-term borrowing costs hang in the balance. We'll break down these pivotal developments and explore why keeping a close eye on the Fed's actions could be crucial for reshaping your investment strategy. Learn from my mentor's timeless wisdom on the impact of Federal Reserve decisions and prepare to navigate these volatile financial waters with confidence.As we pivot to the tech frontier, witness Amazon's transformation beyond e-commerce, spotlighted by Bank of America's analysts as a tech powerhouse set for remarkable growth. With AWS and a burgeoning focus on AI and logistics, Amazon's stock presents enticing prospects for 2025. But that's not all—Donald Trump's legal maneuvers against media giants could send ripples through the media landscape and influence your investments. Join us to unpack these stories and equip yourself with insights to stay one step ahead in the ever-evolving world of finance and media.Support the showIntroducing the 60-Day Deal Finder!Visit: www.wealthyAF.aiUse the Coupon Code: WEALTHYAF for 20% off!

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance as the Fed lowered interest rates for a third time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance as the Fed lowered interest rates for a third time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nationally syndicated financial columnist and author Terry Savage joins John Williams to talk about charitable giving this holiday season, the overall market performance recently, how much the market is up this year, how you should be thinking about your investments right now, her thoughts on the Fed cutting rates again, a new BMO survey that shows people cutting back […]

In our December Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss the incoming administration, developing geopolitical events, and their potential impact on the economy and markets. View the Investment Strategy Brief slides related to this episode, here Watch the video related to this episode, here The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stifel Financial Corp. or its affiliates (collectively, Stifel). This communication is provided for information purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. © Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated | Member SIPC & NYSE | www.stifel.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China's balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades (07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top? (09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor (11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession (13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar (15:30) Dovish Fed (16:51) Labor Market & Claims (21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing (26:00) Rate Steepening (27:13) Ads (29:15) Trump Peace Dividend (32:51) Inflation & CPI (36:22) Continuing Goldilocks (39:52) Bitcoin (43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing (50:53) Vol Controllers (53:48) Geopolitics (55:23) Cash Bubble (57:07) New Credit Cycle (59:17) Housing Affordability __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Craig Hemke sits down with Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens to discuss the critical challenges facing the U.S. economy and their implications for gold and silver markets. Is the Fed's “higher for longer” interest rate policy sustainable, or are we nearing a tipping point for financial instability? They explore the pressures of rising debt service costs, a strained corporate sector, and the potential for renewed quantitative easing. Discover how gold's stellar performance in 2024 reflects growing concerns over fiscal deficits and the potential for monetary intervention. Plus, find out why the BRICS nations' moves in global finance could further strengthen gold's position as a cornerstone of the world economy. Is this a time for caution or a golden opportunity for investors? ✅ Shop Gold and Silver in USA - https://shorturl.at/ptzWX ✅ Shop Gold and Silver in Canada - https://shorturl.at/htyKN Become part of our community of precious metal investors by subscribing to our newsletter here - https://rb.gy/lh3 Book a Free Precious Metals Consultation With Us - https://shorturl.at/dhqQ9 Have questions for us? Send them to submissions@sprottmoney.com or call us at 1.888.861.0775 Sprott Money Ltd. General Use Disclaimer Sprott Money Ltd., its owners and operators, content creators, presenters, and interviewees, offers no financial or investment advice. The content in this material is for information purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial product or service. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon, and their particular needs from a registered financial advisor. Sprott Money Ltd. is not a registered securities or investment dealer. Sprott Money Ltd. products are not insured by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) or any other government insurer.

In this edited X Spaces conversation, Tom Bodrovics is joined by an experienced group of precious metals experts including Drew Rathgeber, Bob Coleman, Jim Hunter, Steve St. Angelo, David Morgan and others. Focusing on the impact of recent events on precious metals markets, particularly after the U.S. election. They shared various perspectives on sentiment changes, correlations between precious metals and Bitcoin, market manipulation, and the role of managed money and futures trading. Drew discussed potential fundamental shifts in gold investments based on the election results and the correlation with increased debt and government spending. Steve spoke about the connection between precious metals and Bitcoin, noting how Trump's support for cryptocurrency could influence investors. They also touched upon market manipulation, industry trends, and the impact of rising interest rates on dealers and investors. Overall, they acknowledged dealing with market manipulation as an unavoidable reality for investors. They also discuss historical price movements in gold and silver and the possible influence of cryptocurrencies on metal prices. They emphasized the importance of physical precious metals as real assets against those backed by debt. They also discussed potential geopolitical implications and manipulation within commodity markets. Steve expressed concerns about escalating energy issues and their impact on financial debt. The conversation concluded with a focus on precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum as potential safe havens during economic instability. Drew RathgeberWebsite: https://progoldtrader.comEmail: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.com Bob ColemanTwitter: https://x.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ Jim HunterTwitter: https://x.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com Steve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g David MorganWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://x.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru

This week's report analyzes the ongoing rise in treasury yields and mortgage rates, highlights key economic data impacts, and examines the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential rate cuts amid evolving economic conditions.-----------------------------------------------------Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed's cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation! Key Highlights:Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steadySector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacksInflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery pricesFed's Position: Powell's cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metricsGeopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essentialProductivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflationInvestment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunitiesAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George discusses how the US Presidential Election outcome will affect Fed policy going forward. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the latest episode of The Capitalist Investor, hosts Tony, Luke, and Diamond Hands D delved into various topics ranging from the political landscape to market reactions and future economic prospects. Here are the five hottest topics from the episode:1. Trump's Resounding Victory and its ImplicationsThe episode kicked off with a deep dive into the seismic shift in the political landscape, following Donald Trump's sweeping win in both the popular and electoral votes. The hosts discussed the Republicans retaking the Senate and the likely dominance in the House. Trump's return to power, they noted, was seen as a catalyst for re-establishing his previous tax laws, averting a reversion to Obama-era legislation, and a broad reconfiguration of the GOP's approach.2. Market Surge: Analyzing the Post-Election Economic RallyLuke provided an overview of the stock market's roaring response to the election results. He highlighted how the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw significant gains, with small caps rallying by 5-6% and bond yields also climbing. The hosts interpreted this as a positive market reaction due to the anticipated regulatory and fiscal stability under a Republican-controlled government.3. The Long Road to Economic NormalcyA critical discussion ensued about the economic future under Republican leadership, especially concerning the removal of what Luke referred to as "sugar" – additional money in the system stemming from stimulus measures and government spending. They acknowledged that while necessary for long-term health, reducing these measures could pose short-term challenges and unpopular decisions, risking GOP blame if the market doesn't continue to thrive.4. Diverse Electorate and Shifting DemographicsDiamond Hands D brought into focus the notable diversity in Trump's electorate. They discussed how demographics are no longer a reliable predictor of voting patterns. Trump's success among Hispanic and African American voters was emphasized as evidence of a significant transformation within the Republican voter base. This shift arguably reflects a more inclusive GOP, potentially reshaping future campaigns and policy priorities.5. Fed Policy and Economic UncertaintyTony shifted the conversation to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its expected 25 basis point rate cut. The discussion tackled how this monetary policy might clash with other economic signals, such as a surging market and potential government spending cuts. The interplay between inflationary pressures, interest rates, and market responses was examined as a critical aspect to watch in the coming months.ConclusionThe Capitalist Investor hosts provided robust analysis on the immediate and future impacts of Trump's return to presidency, the shift in the political landscape, and the market's optimistic reaction. As they pointed out, the real challenge lies in sustaining economic stability while making the necessary adjustments to re-establish organic growth. The evolving voter demographics also present a new dynamic for the next political cycle. Tune in next week to explore how these developments unfold and what they mean for investors and the economy at large.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hear about inflation regimes over time, how different types of assets function during them, and why today's core issue is financial excess.

Explore the fascinating interplay between Federal Reserve policies and market trends with our guest, Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research. Ever wondered how election years shape market behavior? We unravel historical patterns that suggest why 2023's equity markets showed resilience and what might be on the horizon for 2024, including the potential for higher volatility and strategic investment opportunities. Stovall shares insights into how past election years have paved the way for market strength, offering a valuable context for today's investors.Join us as we assess the state of the current bull market, highlighting the performance disparities between small-cap and large-cap stocks. Curious about what keeps small-caps from reaching new highs? We delve into the factors at play, from investor preference for tech giants to the looming shadow of interest rate hikes by the Fed. We also turn our attention to the shifting yield narratives and their implications on the global stage, particularly in light of China's economic maneuvers and the commodity market's response.In our conversation on sector rotation and long-term investment strategies, we explore the nuanced relationships between gold prices, fiscal policies, and investor sentiment. Learn why the healthcare sector could be a hidden gem for growth, driven by demographic shifts and technological advancements. We also tackle the big questions around global equity performance and the potential rotations within the market, all while stressing the importance of diversification and historical awareness in navigating uncertain times. Don't miss out on these insights that could shape your investment strategy for the future.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution's recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more.   DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Jon's podcast: Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Jon's Twitter: @Jon_Hartley_ Jon's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution   *The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle: Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Across Countries and Time* by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott   *Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification from U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements* by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon   *The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan   *The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment* by Nuno Palma   *Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold* by Francois Velde   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Bumper   (00:00:41) – Intro   (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee   (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor?   (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up?   (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy   (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter?   (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth   (00:59:41) – Outro

Many view the recent rise in the unemployment rate as a concerning sign about the economic outlook, fueling recession fears. Could the US economy fall into recession, and will overly tight Federal Reserve policy be to blame? In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Allison Nathan discusses these questions with three top economic minds: Claudia Sahm, the creator of the “Sahm rule” and Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley, and Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Rob Kaplan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, “Is the Fed behind the curve?”

Many view the recent rise in the unemployment rate as a concerning sign about the economic outlook, fueling recession fears. Could the US economy fall into recession, and will overly tight Federal Reserve policy be to blame? In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Allison Nathan discusses these questions with three top economic minds: Claudia Sahm, the creator of the “Sahm rule” and Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley, and Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Rob Kaplan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, “Is the Fed behind the curve?” Days of Recording: August 14 August 15, August 19 September 3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices