Podcasts about Soft landing

What does the bumpy start to the year signal for the coming months? • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Sophorn Cheang, sophorn.cheang@biz.oregon.govhttps://www.oregon.gov/biz/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what's really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen's work at disciplinefunds.com.Main Topics Covered:The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump's tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.AI's Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we'll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Claire Gordon, claire.gordon@gobiz.ca.govgobiz.ca.gov..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

In this episode of The Full Desk Experience, Kortney Harmon is joined by Noah Yosif, Chief Economist and Head of Research at the American Staffing Association, for an in-depth discussion on the evolving staffing landscape.Together, they explore the latest talent market trends, the impact of AI on workforce dynamics, and the biggest challenges and opportunities facing staffing firms in a post-pandemic world.Noah shares key economic insights, comparing pre- and post-COVID labor markets and highlighting the sectors driving staffing demand in 2025. Whether you're looking to stay ahead of industry shifts or gain a competitive edge through data-driven strategies, this episode is packed with expert takeaways.Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding from a true industry expert and discover actionable insights to drive your staffing strategy forward.________________Follow Noah on LinkedIn: LinkedIn | Noah YosifCheck out the American Staffing Association website hereWant to learn more about Crelate? Book a demo hereFollow Crelate on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/crelate/Subscribe to our newsletter: https://www.crelate.com/blog/full-desk-experience

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--John Lynn, JFL@quay.cohttps://www.quay.co/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Daniel Sawko, daniel@shipshape.vchttps://www.shipshape.vc/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Jessica Reynolds, jessica.reynolds@maryland.govhttps://business.maryland.gov/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook. They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty. Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world? Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Khensani Mathebula, khensani.mathebula@lauradevine.comJenny Stevens, jennifer.stevens@lauradevine.comhttps://www.lauradevine.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Jeff Smith, jsmith@factumglobal.comhttps://factumglobal.com/Panel discussion: From Launch to Maturity: How to Grow and Scale Tech Startups into the U.S. Market, Tuesday 13 May, https://www.selectusasummit.us/Programming/2025-Investment-Summit-Agenda..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Jacob Willemsen, jacob@tabsinc.comhttps://www.tabsinc.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Jeevan Ramapriya, jeevan.ramapriya@mass.govhttps://www.mass.gov/orgs/massachusetts-office-of-international-trade-and-investment..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Zeynep Ilgaz, zeynep@crossoceanfund.comhttps://crossoceanfund.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Dan Glazer, daniel.glazer@wsgr.comhttps://www.wsgr.com/en/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

On this episode of DGTL Voices, Ed speaks with David Gelbard, CEO of Parachute Health, about the challenges and innovations in the healthcare technology space, particularly in the durable medical equipment (DME) ordering process. David shares his personal journey, the mission behind Parachute Health, and the importance of building trust in healthcare. The conversation also touches on leadership lessons, overcoming challenges as a founder, and maintaining mental health in a high-stress environment.

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Davis Roccio, droccio@lalaw.comhttps://www.lalaw.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Nicola Bain, nicola.bain@claconnect.comWade Malec, Wade.Maleck@claconnect.comhttps://www.claconnect.com/en/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Paul Zito, zito@rgp.orghttps://rgp.org/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--John Woodward, jwoodward@macoc.comStefan Harrigan, SHarrigan@macoc.comhttps://www.metroatlantachamber.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Bob Fucci, bob.fucci@growthxceleration.comhttps://growthxceleration.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Mike Gattoni, mgattoni@mchattielaw.comhttps://mchattielaw.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

PART TWO: Anthony explains why empty "ifs" are so frustrating, as a part of a larger discussion on why holding onto draft picks is just kicking the can down the road rather than choosing a direction and sticking with it. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Frances Simowitz, frances@quay.cohttps://www.quay.co/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

Links & Resources Follow us on social media for updates: ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠YouTube⁠ Check out our recommended tool: ⁠Prop Stream⁠ Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and review our podcast. Don't forget to share it with friends who might find it valuable. Stay connected for more insights in our next episode!

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--Wendy Pease, wendypease@rapportintl.comhttps://www.rapporttranslations.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

SelectUSA Summit, 11-14 May 2024, Washington, DChttps://www.selectusasummit.us/--David Rose, David@usexpansionpartners.comhttps://www.usexpansionpartners.com/..Feel free to contact us with any questionsBill Kenney, bill@meetroi.comMEET, http://meetroi.com/

Join Anthony Scaramucci and James Lavish in this must-watch Speak Up episode as they uncover why inflation is inevitable and its profound impact on wealth, markets, and the economy. James, co-founder of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, reveals why Bitcoin is emerging as the most powerful store of value, challenging gold, and offering protection against the spiraling U.S. debt, threatening inflation, and widening wealth inequality. Packed with expert insights into government policies, economic trends, and Bitcoin's long-term potential, this discussion explores the critical challenges shaping the future of money in 2025—and strategies to protect your financial future. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4fUhSGD Chapters: 1:16 - Inflation: Why Every Path Leads Here 2:14 - The Trump Effect: Deregulation and Inflation 6:38 - Two Economies: Wealth Inequality in Focus 8:20 - Monopoly Power and the Broken System 11:16 - Can Jay Powell Engineer a Soft Landing? 19:50 - U.S. Debt Spiral: Is Inflation the Only Path? 27:18 - The Role of Bitcoin in Fighting Inflation 30:15 - How Blockchain Will Revolutionize Industries 32:30 - Bitcoin's Future: From Digital Gold to Global Store of Value 35:10 - Why Bitcoin Is Still Misunderstood 36:32 - Bitcoin's Network Strength: The Unstoppable Fortress Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Inflation #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #Investing #EconomicTrends #DebtCrisis #StoreOfValue #Blockchain #GlobalEconomy #WealthInequality #FinancialFreedom #FutureOfMoney #FinancialPlanning #GoldVsBitcoin Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Craig Bolanos, Founder and Wealth Advisor at VestGen Wealth Partners, joins John Williams to talk about the market, why he's optimistic about the end of 2024 and into 2025, how transformative big tech has been to the market, why it's okay to have a pullback occasionally, the strength of the economy overall, why he believes […]

Craig Bolanos, Founder and Wealth Advisor at VestGen Wealth Partners, joins John Williams to talk about the market, why he's optimistic about the end of 2024 and into 2025, how transformative big tech has been to the market, why it's okay to have a pullback occasionally, the strength of the economy overall, why he believes […]

Craig Bolanos, Founder and Wealth Advisor at VestGen Wealth Partners, joins John Williams to talk about the market, why he's optimistic about the end of 2024 and into 2025, how transformative big tech has been to the market, why it's okay to have a pullback occasionally, the strength of the economy overall, why he believes […]

Are recessions a thing of the past? Macro investor Jordi Visser explains why he believes they are and how AI, Bitcoin, and crypto are transforming the global economy. Joining Andrew Brill, Jordi explores how the digital economy, powered by bitcoin, crypto, and AI, is creating unprecedented opportunities for growth and innovation—momentum that's set to accelerate. He also predicts Bitcoin could soon become the world's second-largest asset, surpassed only by gold. Discover the transformative role of AI agents, decentralized systems, the move away from fiat assets, and the geopolitical shifts reshaping markets. Watch now to learn how these technologies will redefine the economy—and what they mean for your financial future. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3OFoddS Chapters: 1:16 - What's the Current State of the Economy? 2:58 - Will the Fed Cut Rates in December? 4:44 - Is Oil to Go Higher? 7:34 - How Will Trump's Victory Impact the USD & the Economy? 9:34 - Has the Fed Engineered a Soft Landing? 12:19 - Why AI and Crypto Are Transforming the Economy 17:20 - The Generational Divide in AI and Crypto Adoption 21:30 - Jordi's Aha Moment with Crypto 25:42 - Why is There a Lack of Perceived Value in Crypto? 29:11 - How AI Fits Into the Digital Economy 37:28 - What Are the Best Investment Opportunities in AI? 41:55 - The Power of Storytelling in Crypto and AI Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Bitcoin #Crypto #AI #DigitalEconomy #Investing #Innovation #Economy #FutureTrends #Recession #Decentralization #Macroeconomics #Macro #FinancialFreedom ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thou Shalt Not Sweat the Technique, Nor Disregard NuanceThe property market is a bit of a complex beast, but interest rates are [arguably] the primary driver. Prices will always follow interest rates. So, figure out what moves interest rates, and you can predict prices.Read more.Mike Jones is the Chief Economist at BNZ BankDisclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances. Do your own research, and take a broad range of opinions into account. Ideally, engage a financial adviser / pay for advice!Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!______________________Affiliate Links!I may receive a financial benefit if you click on these links.The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth. Hatch: For US markets.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Easy Crypto: To buy and sell digital assets.Sharesight: For tracking and reporting on your portfolioExodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsRevolut: For a new type of banking.Online courses:The Home Buyers Blueprint: Get a better home; Get a better mortgage.The KiwiSaver Millionaire Roadmap: Get a Rockstar Retirement!New Wealth Foundations: Personal finance from a wealth-builder's perspective.Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with Confidence Get Social:Check out the most watched/downloaded episodes hereFollow on

I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2024The Norris Groups 7th annual award-winning event, I Survived Real Estate, is Friday, October 25 at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda. Our 17th annual black-tie gala will benefit Make-A-Wish.  Since 2008, together we've raised well over $1,000,000 for charity!In a year of lingering inflation, housing shortage, sticky high interest rates, national affordability challenges, a dangerous war and an uncertain upcoming election are just some of the headwinds we face as an industry and a nation.  What will the FED do as year year finishes out?  How big will the FED decision loom on this year and the expectation of a better 2025?  Oh yeah, there is that little decision the country is going to make as this year looks like a big presidential election in terms of what the economy will look like for the next four years. Our panels are always some of the brightest minds to help us tackle topics we never thought we'd have to consider and how they might impact real estate.In this episode:Craig welcomes Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, and Mark Palim, Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.Economic Policies and Their Impact on Real EstateImpact of Remote Work and Housing Market TrendsFed's Role in Creating a Soft Landing and Economic IndicatorsForecasting Interest Rates and Economic VolatilityThe Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that 'the soft landing was earlier this year,' and now the Federal Reserve is trying to "prevent a recession in an otherwise fairly healthy but unevenly distributed economy." Bory notes that central bankers typically cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing economy, but that's not the case currently in the United States, where he says the Fed is trying to bring rates down more in line with inflation, and that has changed the shape of the yield curve, dropping short-term rates but making it that long-term rates — including mortgage rates — aren't likely to fall by much even with additional rate cuts. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a market-index fund with an options overlay — an ETF that's delivering yields of roughly 9 percent — as his "ETF of the Week." Thomas Cole, co-founder of Distillate Capital — a firm that makes "stability" a prime factor in its investment methodology — brings his numbers-oriented value-investing approach to the Money Life Market Call.

Send us a text RHOP S9 E7 Recap: Courts, Conflicts, and Celibacy This episode of The Real Housewives of Potomac packs plenty of drama, emotional moments, and personal revelations. The cast navigates pivotal moments in their relationships, family dynamics, and personal growth:Karen's Court Countdown: Karen reflects on her upcoming court date while mending relationships and addressing past grievances, including a heartfelt conversation with her cousin about unprocessed grief.Stacey and TJ: Stacey's evolving relationship with TJ raises eyebrows among the group, as she shares her perspective on their connection amid ongoing divorce discussions.Wendy's Family Dynamics: Wendy celebrates her children's milestones with a brunch while preparing for her all-white party, which also acts as a family reunion of sorts with Eddie's estranged siblings.Ashley and Her Mother: Ashley tackles the pressures of single parenting while working to support her mother's well-being.Jassi's Party for Darius: Jassi proudly hosts a celebration for Darius, introducing him to the group and sparking discussions about relationships and personal struggles.Mia's Confrontations: Mia faces tough conversations about past accusations, her battle with addiction, and tensions with Gordon over co-parenting and moving on.This episode mixes heartfelt conversations, interpersonal conflicts, and personal growth, providing a well-rounded glimpse into the lives of these women.TakeawaysThe title of the episode, 'Hard Launch or Soft Landing,' raises questions about the events that unfold.Karen's court date is a significant point of discussion, revealing her ongoing legal troubles.The awkwardness of certain cast interactions, particularly with TJ, is noted.Kelli emphasizes the importance of taking responsibility for one's actions, especially in legal matters.Wendy's family dynamics reveal cultural expectations regarding education and support.Ashley shows a more vulnerable side as she navigates her relationship with her mother.The podcast hosts appreciate the family interactions shown in the series, contrasting with typical drama.Jassy's party serves as a backdrop for exploring relationship dynamics among the cast.The hosts express curiosity about the evolving relationships and tensions within the group.The episode ends with a resolution of a conflict between Mia and Kierna, showcasing growth. Great relationships often start with great friendships.Teresa's role in the show has diminished significantly.The authenticity of reality TV is often questioned.Personal struggles of cast members are highlighted.The production choices can affect the narrative of the show.Critique of how personal issues are handled on screen.The need for a return to genuine storytelling in reality TV.Future of reality shows may involve significant cast changes.The reboot of certain shows has not been well received.The hosts express excitement for upcoming seasons and changes.Support the showhttps://www.wewinewhenever.com/

The clock is ticking on Karen's court date as she examines what really caused her accident; Jassi hosts an event for her boyfriend, Darius, after a meeting at the White House. #RHOP #GizelleBryant #KarenHuger Get 20% off + free shipping with the code BROOKEASHLEY at manscaped.com. That's 20% off + free shipping with the code BROOKEASHLEY at manscaped.com. Stay on top of your grooming game and be ready for anything the season throws your way. If You'd Like To Support This Channel: Cashapp: $bwashley5 Connect With Me: Blog: thebrookeashley.com IG: thebrookeashley_ Twitter: thebrookeash Tik Tok: thebrookeashley1 For Business/Promo Inquiries: Email: thebrookeashley5@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join me getting into this latest episode of The Real Housewives of Potomac! Check out the visual on YouTube. I talk about Stacy and TJ in the "crash pad" (I just...they are BOTH playing us)/the 3 OG's meet up (Karen tried to deflect and turn them tables)/Jassi's event at the Willard (no rapping this time) and that scene at the end (Mia...go kick rocks cause you really trying to play on our heads)!Support the podcast HERE:Support the show

The latest GDP figures have some economists saying the US economy pulled off the rare so-called “soft landing." The Supreme Court has weighed in on who can be removed from voter rolls in Virginia. A search is underway for the person authorities believe is behind recent ballot box fires. Top US officials are heading to the Middle East, and they've got a lot of high-tension issues on their agenda. Plus, we'll tell you about some inspiring heroes and how you can help them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Several key factors contribute to persistently high rates, including inflation concerns, Federal Reserve monetary policies, and broader economic uncertainties. Today's Stocks & Topics: CHWY - Chewy Inc. Cl A, IBM - International Business Machines Corp., Market Wrap, ICLR - Icon PLC, RCL - Royal Caribbean Group, Mortgage Rates Were Supposed to Come Down. Instead, They're Rising, IBRX - ImmunityBio Inc., New but Old CEOs, NEM - Newmont Corp., Value Stocks, GGG - Graco Inc., RMBS - Rambus Inc., YORW - York Water Co., Soft Landing and No-Landing.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Failing to diversify your portfolio and overlooking the effects of inflation are two of the nine common investing blunders. Today's Stocks & Topics: MOS - Mosaic Co., Market Wrap, GIB.A - CGI Inc. Cl A, VBR - Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF, 9 Costly Retirement Investing Mistakes to Avoid, KPP Newsletter, AMZN - Amazon.com Inc., Key Benchmark Number: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline, Annuities, Global Inflation, SNOXX - Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Inv., XOM - Exxon Mobil Corp., TXG - 10x Genomics Inc., Soft Landing, ILPT - Industrial Logistics Properties Trust, A-I Chips.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Russia has expanded the capacity of its shadow fleet of oil tankers despite western sanctions, and US bank stocks hit their highest level since before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, following better than expected quarterly earnings. Plus, the Eurozone's weak economic growth and sluggish consumer prices have raised concerns about low inflation, and Argentina's president Javier Milei is not ready to lift the country's currency controls.Mentioned in this podcast:Russia's shadow fleet grows despite western crackdown US bank stocks pass pre-SVB high on hopes for economic ‘soft landing' Spectre of low inflation returns to haunt Eurozone policymakers Argentina's Javier Milei says his ‘regime of freedom' not ready to drop currency controlsMusk's SpaceX catches returning booster rocket in technical milestone The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Plus: U.S. consumer sentiment dipped last month over inflation frustrations. September's producer-price index was unchanged compared to August. J.R. Whalen reports. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending October 5th, 2024... what economists are now saying about the jobs report and a “soft landing,” how Hurricane Helene is impacting decisions on where to live, and the rent control ballot measure that could open a Pandora's box.  Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. I'd like to take a moment to invite you to our live property tour event in San Antonio at the very beginning of next month! We get together for cocktails and Day of the Dead festivities on November 1st and go on a tour of for sale rental properties on the 2nd. You can read more about the event and register at newsforinvestors.com under the Connect tab. Hope to see you there! Links:   ~~~~ SAN ANTONIO PROPERTY TOUR: https://realwealth.com/tours/   ~~~~ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE

PREVIEW: Red flags: Conversation with colleague Liz Peek re what the Federal Reserve is watching to measure the intended soft landing of the economy -- and what red flags are informing the decisions. More later. 1859 Five Points 

This week we talk about the Fed, interest rates, and inflation.We also discuss cooling economies, the Federal Funds Rate, and the CPI.Recommended Book: Dirty Laundry by Richard Pink and Roxanne EmeryTranscriptI've done a few episodes on this general topic over the past several years, so I won't get super in-depth about many of the specifics, but the US Federal Reserve has a dual-mandate to keep prices stable and to maximize employment in the country—though that core responsibility has been expanded in recent years to also include regulatory control over banks, providing a variety of services to banks and other savings associations, and doing what it can to moderate long-term inflation rates.A lot of these responsibilities are intertwined, in the sense that, for instance, if you increase interest rates, that can lead to less spending by corporations that might otherwise borrow and spend liberally, creating more jobs; so adjusting one lever often tweaks seemingly disconnected outcomes—which is part of why this agency's activities often fly below the radar of non-regulation, non-monetary-world people and publications; they're super-careful with their powers, because one wrong move can cause ripples of discomfort throughout the US and global economy.When one of those metrics they're meant to moderate goes haywire, on the other hand, they're all over the news; their every action, even the seemingly unimportant ones, tracked in great details, and breathlessly reported-upon.For a variety of reasons, including the large-scale shut-down of various aspects of society and the global economy, and the consequent disruption of global supply chains, inflation—as measured by CPI, or the Consumer Price Index—shot through the roof, pretty much everywhere on the planet, beginning in 2020.Leading up to that moment, many wealthy countries had been doing pretty well in terms of moderated inflation levels, and the US was no different: year-over-year inflation growth was down to sub-1% levels in 2014 and 2015, and it was close to the Fed's 2% target level from 2010, when the worst of the 2007-2008 economic crisis had receded, until 2020, when it was down to 1.4%.That year, the Federal Funds Rate, which is the lever the Fed uses to adjust interest rate levels throughout the US government and economy, setting the interest rate banks charge to lend each other money short-term, basically, that number eventually influencing everything from savings account interest payments to mortgage rates to what you can expect to pay for a car loan—that Federal Funds Rate was down to .25% in 2020 and 2021, which is very low, which meant that debt was very cheap and easy to acquire, corporations happily borrowing as much money as they wanted, as it would cost them very little to do so, and that meant expansion across the economy, that expansion further aided by low interest paid on savings accounts and similar, safe-havens for money, which made investing in startups, stocks, and similar, risky investment vehicles more appealing—because the safe stuff didn't pay much of anything.All of which meant a spending bonanza—right up to the point that COVID-19 started rippling outward from China, and the world's governments responded with lockdowns and similar, economy-stifling measures.By the end of 2021, year-over-year inflation in the US was up to 7%, from 1.4% the previous year, and it was 6.5% the following year.In 2022, the Fed bumped the Federal Funds Rate from that incredible low of .25% up to 4.5%—a huge jump, and a staggering blow for an economy that was experiencing a dramatic surge in prices; the goal being to slow things down, and consequently, hopefully, also slow that inflation rate.Other factors likewise influenced inflation around the world during this period, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which massively complicated the global energy market, alongside other disruptions, and the weirdening of politics, which have become increasingly tribal and extreme over the past decade or so in many governments around the world, have made it trickier to legislate, and have carried a wave of unserious and obstructive lawmakers into office.That hiking of the Federal Funds Rate ended what's been called the US's ZIRP era: a period in which zero interest-rate policy, or so close to zero that it's essentially zero interest rate policy, defined the shape of the economy, what professions everyone chose to pursue, which players became dominant in their industries, and what sorts of bets made financial and reputational sense.The US, and much of the world, especially the wealthy world, was thus suddenly plunged into a very different financial and regulatory environment, changing its posture and the politics of money and spending, while also queueing things up for a potential future in which inflation might be tackled and the Fed might start adjusting the dial downward once more, tipping the economy back into something more spendy and risk-taking, after a handful of years in which the name of the game has been cutting costs, laying off as many people as possible, and recalibrating toward today's profits over investing in tomorrow's potential gamechanging outcomes.What I'd like to talk about today is the Fed's recent decision to do exactly that, adjust their interest rate dial, and how the way they did it is being received by those who are the most affected by this choice.—The mechanism of the Federal Funds Rate is fairly straightforward: make it more expensive to borrow money and you tend to cool the economy.Do this at the wrong time—when the economy is already cool—and you hurt the businesses that make up the production side of things, but also consumers, as there likely won't be enough jobs, and enough jobs paying enough for folks to earn a living, buy things, and keep those businesses operating at nominal capacity.Don't do it when you need to, though, and the economy can get out of hand, running too hot, expanding wildly, and possibly also pumping up inflation at a rate that makes everything pricier, which can lead to similar consequences: folks not able to afford as much because the price of things is going up, despite their pay being decent and the job market being on fire.This rate has to be used like a scalpel, not a chainsaw, then, lest you tip things one way or the other, in either case resulting in some type of economic truncation and various types of suffering for the citizenry of the country in question.In this context, a “soft landing” is a semi-mythical accomplishment involving the just-right application of the Federal Funds Rate so that you increase interest rates, maybe dramatically, to stifle high inflation, but then pull those interest rates back at just the right moment so that the economy is cooled, but not damaged, and you're thus able to put things back on a nice growth trajectory, but with something like a 2% inflation rate, rather than something much higher, or just as bad in some ways, much lower than that.It's been speculated that a soft landing might be attainable by this Fed's current leadership because they seemed to be acting prudently and objectively, despite the politics surrounding their efforts, and they also seemed willing to hold off on lowering the rate even when much of the business world and parts of the government were losing its mind over worry that they would keep it high for too long.In late September 2024, the Fed announced that they'd decided to finally cut this rate, from a target range of 5.25-5.5%, down to a target range of 4.75-5%.That's a drop of .5%, which is unusual except in emergency circumstances, and while it wasn't totally out of the blue—many analysts and betting markets had given a high probability to this potentiality, as opposed to the usual .25% cut—it was still quite a big event, as it makes pretty clear that the Fed sees their job as being mostly done, at least in the sense that they need to cut inflation quickly and dramatically.That decision was made on the basis that US inflation rates, using the Fed's preferred index, had dropped for the fifth consecutive month in August of this year, down to 2.2%, which marked the lowest level since February of 2021; that's down from 2.9% in July, and is tantalizingly close to their target rate of 2%.The implications of this double-the-usual drop in the Federal Funds Rate are many, and the specifics and claims vary depending on who you ask.One perspective of why this did this how they did it is that the Fed sees that it's work is done on this matter, and they're keen to get interest rate levels back to something more moderated as quickly as possible so that the economy can keep its solid momentum going apace. They also recognize that there's a delay on these sorts of decisions and their impact, so getting close to 2% and then pulling back is more likely to ultimately land them somewhere close to 2%, while waiting for reports that show 2% before pulling back would be likely to lead to an overshoot, which could be really bad for economic outcomes.Another view is that the Fed accidentally held on a little too long and maybe should have cut rates by .25% at their previous meeting, and now, to make up for that, they doubled the cut; but  because of that accidental delay, the economy could suffer a bit, the Fed overshooting after all, which again, wouldn't be ideal, but is a possibility because of that aforementioned delay in cause and effect.Some prognosticators in this space, however, are seeing this as a panicky indication that we're actually careening toward a recession, as some of the economic indicators folks watch to predict such things are flashing red, and while a successful soft landing could theoretically help the US avoid such a path, the current wave of relief and optimistic anticipation could also be an illusion that's concealing structural weaknesses in the US economy that are about to rupture.The most popular version of that more pessimistic prediction is that the US will experience a recession in 2025, maybe 2026 at the latest, and it will have to make it through that trough before it can start climbing up the peak, again—which would be bad news for investors and businesses, and would mean basically resetting to a standing start, in terms of growth, as opposed to perpetuating the momentum of the economy as it exists, today, which is doing pretty well by most metrics.That could also be quite bad for burgeoning industries like those connected to AI systems, renewable energy, and microchips, as these are all investment-intensive corners of the economy, and a recession would almost certainly significantly truncate the amount of money sloshing around in investors' bank accounts, waiting to be injected into businesses operating in such spaces.All that said, at the individual level, while inflation has been moderated by many measures, prices dropping substantially from where they were even a few months ago, what's been called the “vibecession” seems to still be hampering the everyday person's sense of how things are going economically in the US—the numbers look pretty good, but the average person reports that they think things are going catastrophically.It's thought that this is at least partly the consequence of economic ignorance—folks only remembering the many negative headlines they see, and not realizing how historically low unemployment is, and how historically high the stock market has climbed, alongside other positive measures.But the more potent ingredient, almost certainly, is that while inflation has moderated for many common goods and expenses, others, like food, are still quite high, and that's an expense that we don't just see periodically, like when we buy new shoes or a new car, but every week or even every day, which is a far more regular punch to the gut that hits not just our pocketbooks, but also our perception of how far our money goes, and how well off we feel as a consequence.There's already a great deal of speculation as to what the Fed will do at its next meeting in November, and bets on popular futures markets indicate there's a 54% chance of another half-point cut, as opposed to a 46% chance of a quarter-point cut.That latter potentiality would arguably support the assertion that the Fed is scrambling to make up for lost time, hoping to avoid an inflation reduction overshoot—or from a more positive perspective, maybe just wanting to get back to a more neutral interest rate stance sooner rather than later, to help keep the economy chugging along, without any periods of sluggishness, while the former potentiality, a quarter-point cut in November, would ostensibly seem to be a more confident stance from the Fed, but could also worry investors, as it might mean it'll take a bit longer to fully return to that neutral stance.Whatever speed the Fed ends up opting for in dropping interest rates, though, most analysts see the rate falling to something like the 3-3.25% range by the middle of 2025, which is at the top end of what's generally see as a neutral rate for such things—a rate that won't add fuel to a hot economy, but also won't cool things artificially.By that point, we'll probably also know if the Fed has managed to nail a soft landing; it seems like they might have, but at this point there is still reason to suspect they didn't, and that this is just the silence before the storm.Show Noteshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/john-lanchester-consumer-price-index-who-is-government/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_indexhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics)https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-barkin-interest-rates-inflation-bba49b528649cf866e391a783033c067https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/economy/rate-cut-what-next/index.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/business/entrepreneurship/fed-interest-rate-cut-small-business-spending-abfed941https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/09/26/the-feds-rate-cut--a-soft-landing--or-fake-news/https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-is-aligned-rate-cuts-upcoming-data-will-shape-pace-2024-09-27/https://apnews.com/article/interest-rates-inflation-prices-federal-reserve-economy-0283bc6f92e9f9920094b78d821df227https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-rate-cut-credit-cards-mortgages-already-lowering-rates/https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htmhttps://www.investopedia.com/will-fed-rate-cuts-save-commercial-real-estate-cre-loans-banks-8719181https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-pce-reading-supports-case-for-smaller-fed-rate-cut-in-november-143349577.html?guccounter=1https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-28/powell-speech-and-jobs-data-to-help-clarify-fed-rate-path?embedded-checkout=truehttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-bet-second-straight-50-bps-fed-rate-cut-november-2024-09-27/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_ratehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_interest-rate_policyhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asphttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-rate-cut-credit-cards-mortgages-already-lowering-rates/https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/27/stock-markets-hit-record-highs-after-news-of-a-fall-in-us-inflation This is a public episode. 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Credit likes moderation, and the Fed's rate cut indicates its belief that the economy is heading for a soft landing. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist warns that markets still need to keep an eye on incoming data.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the implications of the Fed's 50 basis points interest rate cut for corporate credit markets. It's Friday, Sep 27th at 10 am in New York. For credit markets, understanding why the Fed is cutting is actually very critical. Unlike typical rate cutting cycles, these cuts are coming when the economic growth is still decelerating but not falling off the cliff. Typically, rate cuts have come in when the economy is already in a recession or approaching recession. Neither is the case this time. So the US expanded by 3 per cent in the second quarter; and the third quarter, it is tracking well over 2 per cent. So, these cuts do not aim to stimulate the economy but really to acknowledge that there's been significant progress on inflation, and move the policy towards a much more normalized policy stance. In some way, this really reflects the Fed's confidence in the inflation path. So that means, not cutting now would mean restraining the economy further through high real interest rates. So, this cut really reflects a growing faith by the Fed in achieving a soft landing. Also, the size of the cut, the 50 basis point cut as opposed to 25 basis points, shows the Fed's willingness to go big in response to weaker data, especially in labor markets. So since the beginning of the year, we have been pretty constructive on spread products across the board, particularly corporate credit and securitized credit, even though valuations have been tightening. Our stance is based on the idea that credit fundamentals will stay reasonably healthy even if economic growth decelerates, as long as it doesn't fall off the cliff. Further, we also believe that credit fundamentals will improve with rate cuts because stress in this cycle has mainly come from higher interest expenses weighing on both corporations and households. This is in stark contrast to other recent periods of stress in credit markets – such as 2008/09 when we had the financial crisis, 2015/16 we had the challenges in the energy sector and then 2020, of course, we faced COVID. So the best point of illustrating this would be through leveraged loans, which are floating-rate instruments. As the Fed started tightening in 2022, we saw increasing pressures on interest coverage ratios for leveraged loan borrowers. That led to a pick-up in downgrades and defaults in loans. As rate hikes ended, we started seeing stabilization of these coverage ratios, and the pace of downgrades and defaults slowed. And now, with rate cutting ahead of us and the dot plot implying 150 basis points more of cuts for the rest of this year and the next year to come, the pressure on interest coverage ratios are going to be easing, especially if the economy stays in soft landing mode. This suggests that while spreads are today tight, the fundamentals could even improve with rate cuts – that means the spreads could remain around these levels, or even tighten a bit further. After all, if you remember the mid-1990s, which was the the last time that the Fed achieved a soft landing, investment grade corporate credit spreads were about 30 basis points tighter relative to where we are today. That 'if' is a big if. If we are wrong on the soft landing thesis, our conviction about the spread products being valuable will prove to have been misplaced. Really the challenge with any landing is that we can't be certain of the prospect until we actually land. Till then, we are really looking at incoming data and hypothesizing: are we heading into a soft or hard landing? So this means incoming data pose two-sided risks to the path ahead for credit spreads. If incoming data are weak – particularly employment data are weak – it is likely that faith in this soft landing construct will dim and spreads could widen. But if they are robust, we can see spreads tightening even further from the current tight levels. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

With a Fed rates cut all but assured, the question has shifted to whether it will be a 25bps or 50bps cut. Alongside that speculation is a competition for narrative interpretation. Soft-landing on the one hand, recession on the other. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

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