Podcasts about G10

Cloud cost is no longer just a finance team issue. It is now a business-wide concern, and treating it as a budgeting exercise is holding companies back. In this episode, I'm joined by John Purcell, Chief Product Officer at DoiT, to unpack how organisations can rethink cloud financial management through a risk-first lens. With the FinOps X conference just around the corner, John also gives us a preview of the themes likely to dominate the agenda this year, from Kubernetes complexity to the role of AI in governance. DoiT is not just another optimisation tool. Their Cloud Intelligence platform helps companies align performance, reliability, and security with financial strategy. John explains how cost spikes are not just common, they are almost guaranteed. He shares a real example of a ninety-thousand dollar AWS bill caused by a minor configuration error and what could have prevented it. We talk about the shift from reactive cost reviews to proactive financial defence. Think of it like cybersecurity but applied to your cloud budget. That mindset change is something FinOps teams need to embrace quickly. It is not just about watching what is spent, but understanding intent and outcomes across the business. John also introduces the concept of the FinOps fabric, a combination of technology, processes, and culture that helps teams align on goals and mitigate risks. And while AI and automation are transforming how teams interact with cloud platforms, they are still responsible for driving most cloud spend today. We dig into what needs to change before AI can truly become an optimisation asset rather than another cost driver. Whether you're gearing up for FinOps X or trying to get a better grip on cloud cost management, this episode offers practical insight into the tools, strategies, and cultural shifts that can help your team stay ahead. To learn more, visit doit.com or connect with the team at booth G10 if you are attending the FinOps X event in San Diego.

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 577. This episode is brought to you by Primary Arms, Walker Defense, XS Sights, and VZ Grips. In this show we will be discussing a lever gun review, a subgun, a chest rig, and baby fixed blade    As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony, Rob, Rusty   Sponsor #1: XS Sights   For over 25 years, XS Sights has helped you get on target faster. Offering tritium sights in all different types and styles, low light is no longer an obstacle. Most options come with a brightly colored photoluminescent ring around the tritium. That colored ring makes them work great in the daylight also. XS Sights has sight styles for everyone: Big Dot's, Ghost Rings, Standard Notch and Post, Minimalist, Suppressor Height, all offering tritium options. Available for a plethora of firearms types, from shotguns to handguns, XS sights has you covered for all your low light sighting needs.   Our XS Sights Product of the week is - Minimalist Suppressor Height Night Sights for Sig Sauer   Use Code “GGR20” for 20% off of almost everything at xssights.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet Midway USA   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic is sponsored by: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - 1911 VZ Hydra   Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   Main Topic: Product Review   Chad - Gforce Arms Saddlehorn LTAC   Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Military Armament Corporation MAC IX MSRP - $832.99   Sponsor #3: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes, no details are ever left behind.

Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 576. This episode is brought to you by Primary Arms, Walker Defense, XS Sights, and VZ Grips. In this show we will be discussing Hi Point AR's, Atibals compact, a LED level, and a Bombur   As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony, Rob, Rusty, Destroyer of worlds   Sponsor #1: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - AR15 VZ Recon gen 2   Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet Midway USA   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic is sponsored by: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes, no details are ever left behind. Only top quality materials are used in the manufacturing process. Together, all of this gives you some of the best firearm performance around. Everything they have to offer is proudly made in the USA. Walker Defense, where American ingenuity meets bleeding edge technology.   Our Walker Defense Product of the week is - FDE bcg   Use code “INSIDER15” FOR 15% OFF everything at walkerdr.com   Main Topic: Hi-Point AR's - https://www.hi-pointfirearms.com/    Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Atibal APEX COMPACT 3-12x44 FFP MSRP - $519.99   Sponsor #3: Primary Arms     Primary Arms seeks to provide the best shopping experience for everything firearms. They have a smorgasbord of products from your favorite manufacturers, including a complete selection of rifles, handguns, firearm parts, ammunition, and shooting gear.   Are you also looking for optics that deliver unbeatable quality without breaking the bank?

China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump shows respect, via Bloomberg sources; China wants Trump to rein in cabinet members and show consistency; wants US talks to address concerns on Taiwan and sanctions.White House said over 15 trade deal proposals are being considered and some could be announced soon.European indices downbeat, but some upside seen on source reports that China is open to talks, albeit with conditions; ASML -5% after poor Q1 results amid trade uncertainty.US equity futures lower and NQ underperforms with NVDA down 5.9% after it expects a USD 5.5bln hit due to export controls.USD is softer vs. G10 peers. Support from a conciliatory trade report proved to be fleeting.Fixed is underpinned by the risk-off tone, though off best given the latest China sources.Crude reverses losses on China sources, base metals hit on US' critical mineral investigation; gold tops USD 3,300/oz.Looking ahead, US Retail Sales, NZ CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed's Powell, Cook, Hammack, Logan & Schmid, BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from the US.Earnings from US Bancorp, Abbott, Progressive, Travelers, Prologis, Autoliv, Citizens, First Horizon, Alcoa.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 570. This episode is brought to you by VZ Grips, Walker Defense, Primary Arms, and XS Sights. In this show I have the Monolith review. We talk about a new Romeo pro, a 10m carbine, a G36, and a Civivi   As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony   Sponsor #1: XS Sights   For over 25 years, XS Sights has helped you get on target faster. Offering tritium sights in all different types and styles, low light is no longer an obstacle. Most options come with a brightly colored photoluminescent ring around the tritium. That colored ring makes them work great in the daylight also. XS Sights has sight styles for everyone: Big Dot's, Ghost Rings, Standard Notch and Post, Minimalist, Suppressor Height, all offering tritium options. Available for a plethora of firearms types, from shotguns to handguns, XS sights has you covered for all your low light sighting needs.   Our XS Sights Product of the week is - Henry LVR-HG (Lever Handguard)   Use Code “GGR20” for 20% off of almost everything at xssights.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet Midway USA   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic is sponsored by: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - VZ Punch Ripper   Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   Main Topic: Product Review Chad - Global Ordnance Monolith   Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Sig Romeo RS Pro MSRP - $169.99-199.99   Smith & Wesson M&P FPC 10MM MSRP - $699.00   Sponsor #3: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes,

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 569. This episode is brought to you by VZ Grips, Walker Defense, Primary Arms, and XS Sights. In this show we will be discussing some Jerky, a glock comp, a freedom series pump, a browning folder, and a jawbone   As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony, Rob, Rusty   Sponsor #1: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - Double Diamond for the Ruger 22/45 Mark IV   Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet Midway USA   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic is sponsored by: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes, no details are ever left behind. Only top quality materials are used in the manufacturing process. Together, all of this gives you some of the best firearm performance around. Everything they have to offer is proudly made in the USA. Walker Defense, where American ingenuity meets bleeding edge technology.   Our Walker Defense Product of the week is - Flat Dark Earth BCG   Use code “INSIDER15” FOR 15% OFF everything at walkerdr.com   Main Topic: Product Review, kind of Chad - VACA unjerky   Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Stoeger P3000 Freedom Series Tactical MSRP - $499.00   Armaspec FMC-G17 MSRP - $139.00   Sponsor #3: Primary Arms     Primary Arms seeks to provide the best shopping experience for everything firearms. They have a smorgasbord of products from your favorite manufacturers, including a complete selection of rifles, handguns, firearm parts, ammunition, and shooting gear.

The US dollar is weaker this week against most G10 currencies ahead of the key reciprocal tariff announcement on 2nd April. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain Institutional FX Sales EMEA about how the markets are positioned ahead of the announcement and what we can expect in the days and weeks following. Derek suggests financial markets are possibly overly optimistic about the potential impact.   Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

APAC stocks took their cues from the tech-led sell-off stateside after the Nasdaq suffered its worst day since 2022.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.5% on Monday.US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.1%) regained some composure after the prior day's sell-off which saw the S&P 500 fall to a six-month low.DXY is steady after a choppy session yesterday with G10 majors broadly contained; antipodeans marginally lag.10yr UST futures extended their advances amid a flight to quality, Bunds gradually rebounded and reclaimed the 128.00 level.Crude futures were lacklustre with demand hampered alongside the global risk-off sentiment.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Conditions, US JOLTS, EIA STEO, ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane, Villeroy & Escriva, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 566. This episode is brought to you by VZ Grips, Walker Defense, Primary Arms, and XS Sights. In this show I have a Clone review. We discuss a conversion brace, Romulus, a QD attachment, and a new auto knife   As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony, Rob, Rusty   Sponsor #1: XS Sights   For over 25 years, XS Sights has helped you get on target faster. Offering tritium sights in all different types and styles, low light is no longer an obstacle. Most options come with a brightly colored photoluminescent ring around the tritium. That colored ring makes them work great in the daylight also. XS Sights has sight styles for everyone: Big Dot's, Ghost Rings, Standard Notch and Post, Minimalist, Suppressor Height, all offering tritium options. Available for a plethora of firearms types, from shotguns to handguns, XS sights has you covered for all your low light sighting needs.   Our XS Sights Product of the week is - R3D 2.0 Night Sights for Glocks   Use Code “GGR20” for 20% off of almost everything at xssights.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic is sponsored by: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - VZ Slant for Sharps Bros P365 X Macro    Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   Main Topic: Product Review Chad - ZroDelta ZRO FKS-9   Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Recover Tactical S-Pro Conversion MSRP - $299.95   Alpha Foxtrot Romulus MSRP - $1520.00 +   Sponsor #3: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes...

  Welcome to the Firearms Insider Gun & Gear Review Podcast episode 565. This episode is brought to you by VZ Grips, Walker Defense, Primary Arms, and XS Sights. In this show Tony has a sight review. We talk about some gloves, a chest pack, a newish small red dot, and Double dogs   As you may know, we showcase guns, gear, and anything else you might be interested in. We do our best to evaluate products from an unbiased and honest perspective.   I'm Chad Wallace, host of the most dedicated firearms podcast around With me tonight are: Tony, Rob, Rusty   Sponsor #1: VZ Grips    VZ Grips has been manufacturing handgun grips since 2003. With a reputation for quality, consistency & innovation, top tier manufacturers choose VZ grips. They come in a variety of styles, patterns, colors, and are manufactured from proprietary G10, Micarta, Carbon fiber, or polymer. Available with varying degrees of texture, VZ offers a wide range of grips for all different firearm types. Made in the USA, VZ gives you the grip you can count on.   Featured Grip of the week - 1911 wood Double Diamond    Coupon code “GGR15” gets 15% off handgun and rifle grips at vzgrips.com   What we did in Firearms:   Announcements: Bandwidth sponsor Patriot Patch Co.  And their Patch of the Month Club! T-shirts are available through our FRN site, or click the “Merch” tab on Firearmsinsider.tv   AFFILIATES / DISCOUNTS: Walker Defense Research - enter “INSIDER15” for 15% off XS Sights - “GGR20” for 20% off Primary Arms VZ Grips - “GGR15” for 15% off handgun and rifle grips Brownells Gun Guys Garage discount code - “FRN15OFF” LA Police Gear Atibal Optics - enter “FIREARMSINSIDER20” for 20% off 5.11 Tactical PowerTac Lights - enter “GGR” for a real good discount JSD Supply Modern Spartan Systems - “GGR15” for 15% off Rough Cut Holsters - “firearmsinsider” for 20% off Global Ordnance Infinite Defense (Infinity Targets) - “PEW15” for 15% off Guns.com Magpul Palmetto State Armory Unique ARs - “GunGearReview” for 10% off CobraTec Knives - “GGR10” for 10% off Nutrient Survival - “GGR10” for 10% off Gideon Optics - “GGR” or “INSIDER” for 10% off Lone Wolf Arms US Optics - “INSIDER15” for 15% off Camorado - “FIREARMSINSIDER” for 5% off Optics Planet   ROB - Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the individual co-hosts and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Firearms Radio Network and/or their employers. This is NOT legal advice, nor should it be considered as such. Viewer discretion is advised. This is especially true on live shows.   Main Topic or Product Spotlight is sponsored by: Walker Defense Research   Walker Defense provides shooters with the finest, most innovative, quality, tactical accessories and firearm components around. From their NILE grip panels to their NERO muzzle brakes, no details are ever left behind. Only top quality materials are used in the manufacturing process. Together, all of this gives you some of the best firearm performance around. Everything they have to offer is proudly made in the USA. Walker Defense, where American ingenuity meets bleeding edge technology.   Our Walker Defense Product of the week is - 3 slot NILE grip panels   Use code “INSIDER15” FOR 15% OFF everything at walkerdr.com   Main Topic: Product Review              Tony - Triclops Sights   Product Spotlight and Discussion:    Triple Gambit Strike Glove MSRP - $99.00   Mission First Tactical ACHRO Chest Pack & Harness MSRP - $149.99   Sponsor #3: Primary Arms     Primary Arms seeks to provide the best shopping experience for everything firearms. They have a smorgasbord of products from your favorite manufacturers, including a complete selection of rifles, handguns, firearm parts, ammunition,

Cache Haggard is the founder of Revenant Corps, a company that makes bespoke premium G10 edged weapons and other Impact Tools. His work has been recently featured in both Recoil and Off Grid Magazines three times now.  Cache is true craftsman and since his business has taken off, he is now joined full time by his lovely wife Katie, helping in the shop.  Cache is also a man who remains true his convictions and is truly a life long learner. You can find his incredible work at his website https://revenantcorps.com You can find show merch here https://teespring.com/id/stores/distinguished-savage-podcast You can find our sponsor Absolute Security and Lock here http://www.absolutesecurityandlock.com

AIXTRON SE Company Presentation: Key Takeaways Introduction to AIXTRON by Christian Ludwig, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Christian Ludwig, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at AIXTRON, delivers a concise yet powerful elevator pitch, highlighting the company's impressive 40-year journey. AIXTRON has established itself as a trusted global technology leader in deposition systems, addressing transformative industries with cutting-edge solutions and a strong legacy of innovation. Corporate Overview Founded: 1983, as a university spin-off from RWTH Aachen. Global Reach: Over 1,100 employees across nine countries, with R&D and production facilities in Germany, the UK, and Italy. Technology Leadership: More than 3,500 deposition systems sold worldwide, with a proven track record in Power Electronics, Optoelectronics, and Laser applications. Key Growth Applications AIXTRON's product portfolio is tailored for four primary growth applications: Power Electronics Silicon Carbide (SiC): Revolutionizing EV main inverters, chargers, and wind power systems. Gallium Nitride (GaN): Powering fast chargers, motor drives, and AI power delivery solutions. Optoelectronics LED Systems: Enabling next-gen industrial displays, automotive lighting, and horticulture. Micro LEDs and Specialty LEDs: Transforming AR glasses, TVs, and automotive interiors. Laser Technology Applications in 3D Sensing, LiDAR, and Optical Data Communication. Growth Outlook Recent Growth: Robust revenue growth driven by SiC and GaN applications. 2025 Transition: A flat-to-slight revenue decline is expected due to market adjustments. Long-Term Potential: Market demand is forecasted to double by 2028/29, driven by electrification, AI, IoT, and sustainable energy trends. Strategic Achievements and Execution Portfolio Evolution: Continuous upgrades with the G10 product family ensure market competitiveness. Market Expansion: Successfully entered the SiC market while maintaining strong shares in GaN and Optoelectronics. ESG Alignment: High alignment with EU Taxonomy regulations demonstrates a commitment to sustainability. Key Megatrends and Market Drivers Electrification and energy efficiency. AI, digitization, and communication technologies. Internet of Things (IoT) and intelligent devices. Transition to advanced materials in power and display applications. Investor Appeal Christian Ludwig concludes by emphasizing AIXTRON's ability to outpace market growth through superior technology and alignment with structural megatrends. He invites investors to explore the company's unique equity story, driven by long-term profitability and sustainability. ▶️ Other videos: Elevator Pitch: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-elevator-pitch/ Company Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-company-presentation/ Deep Dive Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-deep-dive/ Financial Results Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-financial-results/ ESG Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-esg/ =============================== T&C This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Using this website, you agree to our terms and conditions outlined on www.seat11a.com/legal and www.seat11a.com/imprint.

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-plans-to-enact-25-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-by-feb-1WSJ The Big Risk of a Trade War: Inflationhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-risk-of-a-trade-war-inflation-1522926022Bloomberg Why the Freight Market Is Stuckhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-17/j-b-hunt-warning-shows-freight-is-stuck-in-placeRueters Canadian dollar posts biggest decline among G10 currencieshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-posts-biggest-decline-among-g10-currencies-2025-01-16/Bloomberg Trump's Pledge to Slap 25% Tariffs on Mexico Sinks Pesohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-s-pledge-to-slap-25-tariffs-on-mexico-sinks-pesohttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

O presidente do G10 das Favelas, Gilson Rodrigues, e o convidado de estreia da 3ª temporada do Divã de CNPJ, com apresentação de Facundo Guerra. Gilson conta o começo da sua vida na liderança comunitária na favela de Paraisópolis, na zona de Sul de São Paulo, e como essa experiência reuniu outros líderes de favela do país para criar, em 2019, o G10 das favelas. Toda segunda, às 16 horas, o Divã de CNPJ entra na programação do Canal UOL no Youtube. Na TV a cabo, às quintas-feiras, às 20:00, e reprises aos sábados, às 10 da manhã. Aos domingos, às 7 da manhã.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AIXTRON SE Elevator Pitch: Key Takeaways Introduction to AIXTRON by Christian Ludwig, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Christian Ludwig, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at AIXTRON, delivers a concise yet powerful elevator pitch, highlighting the company's impressive 40-year journey. AIXTRON has established itself as a trusted global technology leader in deposition systems, addressing transformative industries with cutting-edge solutions and a strong legacy of innovation. Corporate Overview - Founded: 1983, as a university spin-off from RWTH Aachen. - Global Reach: Over 1,100 employees across nine countries, with R&D and production facilities in Germany, the UK, and Italy. - Technology Leadership: More than 3,500 deposition systems sold worldwide, with a proven track record in Power Electronics, Optoelectronics, and Laser applications. Key Growth Applications AIXTRON's product portfolio is tailored for four primary growth applications: Power Electronics - Silicon Carbide (SiC): Revolutionizing EV main inverters, chargers, and wind power systems. - Gallium Nitride (GaN): Powering fast chargers, motor drives, and AI power delivery solutions. Optoelectronics -LED Systems: Enabling next-gen industrial displays, automotive lighting, and horticulture. -Micro LEDs and Specialty LEDs: Transforming AR glasses, TVs, and automotive interiors. Laser Technology - Applications in 3D Sensing, LiDAR, and Optical Data Communication. Growth Outlook - Recent Growth: Robust revenue growth driven by SiC and GaN applications. - 2025 Transition: A flat-to-slight revenue decline is expected due to market adjustments. - Long-Term Potential: Market demand is forecasted to double by 2028/29, driven by electrification, AI, IoT, and sustainable energy trends. Strategic Achievements and Execution - Portfolio Evolution: Continuous upgrades with the G10 product family ensure market competitiveness. - Market Expansion: Successfully entered the SiC market while maintaining strong shares in GaN and Optoelectronics. - ESG Alignment: High alignment with EU Taxonomy regulations demonstrates a commitment to sustainability. Key Megatrends and Market Drivers - Electrification and energy efficiency. - AI, digitization, and communication technologies. - Internet of Things (IoT) and intelligent devices. - Transition to advanced materials in power and display applications. Investor Appeal Christian Ludwig concludes by emphasizing AIXTRON's ability to outpace market growth through superior technology and alignment with structural megatrends. He invites investors to explore the company's unique equity story, driven by long-term profitability and sustainability. ▶️ Other videos: Elevator Pitch: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-elevator-pitch/ Company Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-company-presentation/ Deep Dive Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-deep-dive/ Financial Results Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-financial-results/ ESG Presentation: https://seat11a.com/investor-relations-esg/ =============================== T&C This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Using this website, you agree to our terms and conditions outlined on www.seat11a.com/legal and www.seat11a.com/imprint.

The path of least resistance continues to be cyclically driven dollar-bullish and euro-dollar-bearish views into early 2025, but that's a narrative that's priced in, extended and crowded. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS' Chief Investment Office, about what could trigger a turnaround in the euro-dollar fortunes in 2025, with several “known unknown” potential game changers when it comes to how much dollar upside is likely. The two also touch on non-dollar, strong G10 currency convictions, with Bolz favoring the Aussie, the yen and sterling in diversification strategies.

European bourses are generally in the green; the NQ outperforms, with Tech lifted after Foxconn reported record Q4 revenue.USD is on the backfoot which has helped to lift G10 peers, JPY underperforms.USTs are pressured ahead of 3yr supply; Gilts underperform after a survey showed that 55% of UK businesses intend to lift prices in the next three months (prev. 39%).Crude and gold are on the backfoot despite the softer Dollar.Looking ahead, German Prelim. CPI, US Services & Composite PMI (Final), Factory Orders, Comments from Fed's Daly, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, explains why we think the US dollar has scope to strengthen even further and what it means for other G10 currencies. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/RGNmNKK.Apple Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/ae/podcast/hsbc-business-editions-menat/id1530716865Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3d9NPmyU64oqNGWvT0VvARAnghami - https://play.anghami.com/artist/7640230YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBOGWG1Zpoxznztf0ucbZ5HZpP1cAqQQE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original Release Date November 19, 2024: On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America, who brings his insights on developing economies and the challenges posed to them by Trump, tariffs and inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, explains why we think the US dollar has scope to strengthen even further and what it means for other G10 currencies. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/RGNmNKK. Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of Marc To Market joins me to provide a comprehensive analysis of the past week's economic events.    The discussion kicks off with an in-depth look at the latest jobs data, which was weaker than expected. Despite these figures, the Federal Reserve is still anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.    We also cover the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates steady and the UK's budget release that signals higher taxes, more spending, and borrowing. Significant market movements, such as the dollar's strength and the impact of economic data on investor positioning, are analyzed.   Looking ahead, Marc previews the upcoming week, which includes the highly anticipated US election and several central bank meetings from the G10 countries. Insights are provided on what to expect from the Fed, Bank of England, and other central banks. Additionally, the potential market implications of these events and the ongoing volatility.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September. It's a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates. This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Cary Orefice of Off-Grid Knives joins Bob "The Knife Junkie" DeMarco on Episode 543 of The Knife Junkie Podcast (https://theknifejunkie.com/543).Pick up an Off-Grid Knives knife with The Knife Junkie's affiliate link: https://www.theknifejunkie.com/offgridOff-Grid Knives is a family-owned American company that prides itself on crafting high-quality knives accessible at various price points. Cary designs Off-Grid Knives in-house and collaborates with trusted manufacturers like Bestech and others in Taiwan to bring the designs to life.Off-Grid Knives range includes rugged, durable EDC folders and fixed blades, all made with premium materials for longevity and exceptional craftsmanship. Their knives come in a variety of materials, whether sensible and budget-friendly G10 and D2 or luxurious and hard-use MagnaCut and carbon fiber.Off-Grid doesn't rely on traditional advertising; instead, they count on satisfied customers and word-of-mouth to spread the word about their dependable, top-quality knives.OGK is proud to give back, supporting Homes for Our Troops and COPS (Concerns Of Police Survivors), offering service discounts to US military, law enforcement, and other frontline heroes, and supplying knives to the US Border Patrol and other government agencies.Off-Grid's mission is to "add serious value to your [knife] collection."Find Off-Grid Knives online at https://www.offgridknives.com, on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/offgridknives, and on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/OffGridKnives.Be sure to support The Knife Junkie and get in on the perks of being a patron, including early access to the podcast and exclusive bonus content. Visit https://www.theknifejunkie.com/patreon for details. You can also support The Knife Junkie channel with your next knife purchase. Find our affiliate links at https://theknifejunkie.com/knives.Let us know what you thought about this episode and leave a rating and/or a review. Your feedback is appreciated. You can also call the listener line at 724-466-4487 or email theknifejunkie@gmail.com with any comments, feedback, or suggestions.To watch or listen to past episodes of the podcast, visit https://theknifejunkie.com/listen. And for professional podcast hosting, use The Knife Junkie's podcast platform of choice: https://theknifejunkie.com/podhost.

European bourses are lower across the board (ex-FTSE 100), US futures are in negative terrirtory ahead of today's US data deluge.Dollar is firmer vs G10 peers, GBP underperforms after BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a "bit more aggressive" in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good.Bonds are on the backfoot, extending on the pressure seen post-ADP on Wednesday; Gilts outperform following the dovish-leaning Bailey comments.Crude oil is continuing the benefit from the geopolitical risk premium, XAU/base metals dip amid the stronger DollarLooking ahead, US Services/Composite PMIs (Final), US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, Durable Goods (R), Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, Speakers include Fed's Bostic & Schmid, Supply from the US, Earnings from Constellation Brands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

We discuss the FX market implications from the upcoming FOMC and other G10 central bank meetings. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792216-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

APAC stocks traded without a firm direction following a similar lead from Wall Street ahead of NFP; Hong Kong had Friday trade scrapped amid a typhoon signal.G10 currencies were largely flat but the JPY gradually edged higher in APAC trade while Antipodeans held a mild downward bias.European equity futures are indicative of a steady cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash closed -0.7% on Thursday.US Secretary of State Blinken said 90% of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is agreed upon, but critical issues remain where there are gaps.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Trade, EZ Employment (F), US NFP, Canadian Employment, ECB's Elderson; Fed's Williams, Waller, and Earnings from Berkeley. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Noticias Económicas y Financieras Todo lo que sube debe bajar, a menos que sea un Boeing $BA Starliner. La nave espacial ha enfrentado fugas de helio (para la propulsión) y problemas con los propulsores (para desorbitar) desde que voló a la Estación Espacial Internacional en junio, dejando varados a los astronautas Butch Wilmore y Sunita Williams en los confines de la termosfera. Se suponía que la misión a la ISS solo duraría ocho días, pero ya han pasado dos meses y ahora se habla de que la situación durará hasta principios de 2025. Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD cayó un 10.5% el miércoles, al anunciar una pérdida de casi $10B en el segundo trimestre. Esto se debió principalmente a una enorme reducción del valor de sus redes de cable, lo que refleja cómo el streaming ha erosionado el negocio tradicional de la televisión por cable, así como a la debilidad del mercado publicitario estadounidense y la incertidumbre relacionada con las renovaciones de los derechos de afiliados y deportivos. "¿Estoy decepcionado por el deterioro ? Sí", declaró el director financiero Gunnar Wiedenfels. "Se ha hablado de una recuperación (en la televisión) hace un año, un año y medio. En realidad, no ha sucedido". Para acabar con el uso compartido de membresías, Costco $COST está instalando dispositivos en las entradas de las tiendas para disuadir a los no miembros de comprar en sus establecimientos. "Una vez instalados, antes de entrar, todos los miembros deben escanear su tarjeta de membresía física o digital", dijo la compañía en un comunicado de prensa. "Los invitados también deben estar acompañados por un miembro válido para ingresar". La medida se produce poco después de que el minorista aumentara sus tarifas de membresía por primera vez en siete años, mientras que sus precios bajos continúan atrayendo a los compradores, con las últimas ventas mensuales aumentando un 7.1%. Las acciones de COST han subido un 23% hasta la fecha. "El componente spot de la cesta global de carry trades indicaría que el 75% de las operaciones de carry trade se han eliminado", escribieron los estrategas de JPMorgan en una nueva nota de investigación. Se dice que gran parte de la volatilidad del mercado durante la semana pasada se originó en Japón, donde una operación de carry trade basada en el yen se arruinó cuando el BOJ subió las tasas durante la misma semana en que la Fed señaló su intención de recortarlas. "El tiempo [todavía] corre para las operaciones de carry trade del G10", señalaron los analistas, describiendo otra operación de carry trade que implica endeudarse a tasas bajas para invertir en activos de mayor rendimiento en otros lugares.

Paul Finebaum's optimism grows for Tennessee football. The SEC Network's opinion king emerged from SEC media days feeling more bullish about the Vols' playoff chances and their place within the conference pecking order. Is that sunny outlook warranted? On today's episode, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and Adam Sparks re-evaluate Tennessee's playoff prospects and assess whether their estimation of Tennessee has improved, regressed or stayed about the same throughout the offseason. Their verdict: A 9-3 record is more likely than a playoff berth, but an accommodating schedule nonetheless helps make Tennessee a playoff contender. Also in this episode, an update on the latest developments in the Neyland Entertainment District project that would bring a hotel, restaurant and bar to liven the area around the stadium near the riverfront, at the expense of the G10 parking garage.

FX markets focus will become US-centric with payrolls, CPI and FOMC on the calendar. But June also brings other G10 central bank meetings. We discuss outlook for currencies going into this key month and event risk.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715460-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

European bourses are mixed continuing the price action seen in APAC; US equity futures are in the greenDollar is flat/softer, Kiwi the G10 outperformer after strong price action overnight and in continuation of the RBNZ last weekUSTs/Bunds are mixed and relatively contained, whilst Gilts outperform playing catch-up to Bund strength in the prior sessionCrude benefits from heightened geopol tensions, XAU dips and base metals are firmer across the board following the announcement of China's USD 47.5bln chip fundLooking ahead, Canadian Producer Prices, Comments from ECB's Knot, Centeno, Fed's Kashkari, Cook & Daly, and Supply from the USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

With cooling inflation and an expected drop for mortgage rates, will more affordable housing lead to a big spike in sales? Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research take stock of the US housing market. ----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll discuss our outlook for mortgage rates and the housing market over the next 12 months.It's Thursday, May 23rd, at 1pm in New York.James Egan: Jay, I want to talk about mortgage rates. From November through January, mortgage rates decreased over 120 basis points. But then from February to May, they've given back more than half of that decline. Where are mortgage rates headed from here?Jay Bacow: So, day to day, week to week, it's hard to have a lot of conviction, a lot of things can happen. But, over the next 12 months, we think mortgage rates are coming down. We estimate that by summer 2025, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage will be roughly 6.25 per cent.James Egan: Alright, that is a significant amount lower than about 7 per cent where we are right now. And that's good news for affordability in the US housing market. What gets us there?Jay Bacow: We think inflation is going to cool, and our economists are forecasting that the Fed is going to cut their policy rate by 75 basis points this year and 100 basis points next year. In fact, our economists are forecasting eight of the G10 central banks to cut rates next year.Now, mortgage rates are 30 year fixed rate products, so they're based more on where the longer end of the treasury curve is than the front end. But our rate strategists think ten year notes are going to rally to 375 by next summer.When you combine all of that with our expectation for secondary mortgage rates to tighten versus treasuries, that's how we end up with that forecast for the primary rate to rally.James Egan: All right, I want to dig in there. I really like how you highlighted the secondary mortgage rates tightening versus treasuries. One thing I know that we've both gotten a lot of questions on over the course of the past year plus is how wide mortgages are trading versus treasuries right now. So, what do you think drives that tightening basis?Jay Bacow: There's a lot of factors -- but in end, two of them that are always going to drive things are supply and demand. One of the interesting things is that while housing activity has picked up, we're near the decade high in the percentage of homes that are bought with all cash, which means that the supply of mortgages to the market is actually not that high.On the demand front, we think you're going to get demand from a broad spread of investors. We think there's been some money manager supported inflows into the mortgage market. We think that as the Fed cuts rates and you get the Basel III endgame resolution, domestic banks are going to come back to the market as they get more regulatory clarity.And then also as the Fed cuts rates, that means that FX (foreign exchange) hedging costs for overseas investors will be improved and so you think Japanese life insurance companies can go back to the market and we think there's going to be continued demand from Chinese commercial banks. But, if you get all of this support, then as mortgage rates come down, that should be good news on the affordability front in the housing market, right Jim?James Egan: Exactly. When we combine that decrease in mortgage rates with what our US economics team is saying will be about mid-single digit growth in nominal incomes, we get an improvement in affordability over the next 12 months that we've only seen a handful of times over the past 30 years.Jay Bacow: Now this six and a quarter forecast is certainly good news versus spot rates. It's almost two per cent below the peaks we saw last year, but I don't really think it solves the lock-in effect that we've discussed on this podcast previously.Close to 80 per cent of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5 per cent. So, they're still out of the money versus our expectations for our mortgage rates going next year.James Egan: Right, and we think that's a very important point. You made the point earlier about thinking about supply and demand with respect to mortgage rates versus treasuries, and we're going to talk about it here in the housing market. We have to think about affordability improvement in terms of both that supply and demand piece.If we look back towards the start of this year, I'd say that demand increased a little bit faster, a little bit stronger than we thought. Typically, when you see sharp improvements in affordability, it doesn't always lead to immediate increases in sales volumes. However, what we saw from November to January seemed to be a little bit quicker to stir animal spirits, perhaps because of how healthy this improvement in affordability was. Home prices were still climbing. Mortgage rates weren't even coming down because the Fed was cutting; it was because of market expectations for future fed cuts in a soft landing environment. But on the supply side, while we expect for sale listing volumes to increase as rates come down, they aren't going to race higher because of that lock-in dynamic that you just described.Jay Bacow: So, Jim, you think more people will list their homes; but what will actually happen to sales volumes? Will people buy them?James Egan: Right. So, I think we have to delineate between existing home sales and new home sales here. Yes, we think existing listings are going to increase on the margins. New home inventory has already increased.Historically, new homes make up about 10 to 20 per cent of the for-sale inventory on a monthly basis. Right now, they're between 30 and 35 per cent, and that's been the case for a little while. So, when we think about our forecasts for sales volumes, we're confident that new home sales will increase more than existing home sales. And that that growth in new home sales will spur single unit starts to increase more than both of them. Our specific spot forecasts, 10 per cent growth in new home sales, 5 per cent growth in existing home sales, with single unit starts edging out a double digit return of about 15 per cent growth. Jay Bacow: Do you have specific spot forecasts for home prices as well? James Egan: We do. As supply increases, the pace of home price growth should slow from where it is right now. It's been accelerating for the past several months, but the absolute level of supply is still pretty tight. We're at 3.8 months of supply as we're recording this podcast. Any reading below 6 is really associated with home price growth, not just today, but at least over the course of the next 6 months -- and we're well below 6 months of inventory.Right now, home prices are growing at about 6.5 per cent. We think they're growing to slow to about 2 per cent by the end of 2024, before accelerating to 3 per cent in 2025. So, while growing inventory leads to deceleration, tight inventory keeps home price appreciation positive.Jay Bacow: Alright so, home sale activity is going to pick up. It's going to be led by starts, which we think will be up 15 percent and more new home sales than existing home sales. There's new home sales up 10 per cent. Home prices we now think will end the year positive; up 2 per cent in 2024 and up 3 per cent in 2025.Jim, always a pleasure talking.James Egan: Great speaking with you, Jay.Jay Bacow: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

European equities hold a mild positive bias, whilst US futures lack firm direction and holds around the unchanged mark.Dollar is flat alongside G10 peers, Kiwi marginally underperforms, USTs are flat in quiet newsflow, whilst Bunds are slightly softer.A helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian crashed due to adverse weather conditions with no survivors reported; Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei signalled continuity.Spot gold printed a record high of around USD 2,450/oz while copper futures extended on gains and benchmark LME prices hit a fresh all-time peak above USD 11,100/t.Looking ahead, speak from Fed's Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson and Mester. Holidays: Whit Monday (Switzerland, Norway, Denmark are closed).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

From the best performing G10 currency last week, the yen has turned and is the worst performer this week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK Ireland and Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the shift in tone from BoJ Governor Ueda who turned a lot more hawkish with concerns increasing over yen weakness. Derek also discusses the potential for the BoE cutting rates in June following the MPC meeting this week and the stronger GDP data today.

Our experts discuss U.S. dollar strength and its far-reaching impact on the global economy and the world's stock markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research.James Lord: I'm James Lord, Head of FX Strategy for Emerging Markets.David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, Head of G10 FX Strategy.Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss one of the most debated topics in world markets right now, the strength of the US dollar.It's Wednesday, May 1st, at 3 pm in London.Michael Zezas: Currencies around the world are falling as a strong US dollar continues its reign. This is an unusual situation. So much so that the finance ministers of Japan, South Korea, and the United States released a joint statement last month to address the effects being felt in Asia. The US dollar's dominance can have vast implications for the global economy and the world stock markets.So, I wanted to sit down with my colleagues, James and David, who are Morgan Stanley's currency strategy experts for emerging markets and developed markets. James, just how dominant is the US dollar right now and what's driving the strength?James Lord: So, we should distinguish between the role the US dollar plays as the world's dominant reserve currency and its value, which can go up and down for other reasons.Right now, the dollar remains just as dominant in the international monetary system as it has been over the past several decades, whilst it also happens to be very strong in terms of its value, as you mentioned. That strength in its value is really being driven by the continued outperformance of the US economy and the ongoing rise in US interest rates, while growth in the rest of the world is more subdued.The dollar's international role remains dominant simply because no other economy or market can match the depth of the US capital markets and the liquidity that it provides, both as a means of raising capital, but also as a store of value for investment; while also offering the strong protection of property rights, strong sovereign credit ratings, the rule of law, and an open capital account. There simply isn't another market that can challenge the US in that respect.Michael Zezas: And can you talk a bit more specifically about the various ways in which the dollar impacts the global economy?James Lord: So, one of the strongest impacts is through the price of the dollar, and the price of dollar debt, which have an impact beyond the borders of the US economy. Because the majority of foreign currency denominated debt that corporates outside of the US issue is denominated in US dollars, the interest rate that's set by the US Federal Reserve has a big impact on the cost of borrowing. It's also the same for many emerging market sovereigns that also issue heavily in US dollars. The US dollar is also used heavily in international trade, cross border lending, because the majority of international trade is denominated in US dollars. So, when US interest rates rise, it also tightens monetary conditions for the rest of the world. That is why the US Federal Reserve is often referred to as the world's central bank, even though Fed only sets policy with respect to the US economy.And the US dollar strengthens, as it has been over the past 10 years, it also makes it more challenging for countries that borrow in dollars to repay that debt, unless they have enough dollar assets.Again, that's another tightening of financial conditions for the rest of the world. I think it was a US Treasury Secretary from several decades ago who said that the US dollar is our currency, but your problem. And that neatly sums up the global influence the US dollar has.Michael Zezas: And David, nothing seems to typify the strength of the US dollar recently, like the currency moves we're seeing with the Japanese Yen. It looks very weak at the moment, and yet the Japanese stock market is very strong.David Adams: Yeah, weak is an understatement for the Japanese yen. In nominal terms, the yen is at its weakest level versus the dollar since 1990. And if we look in real terms, it hasn't been this weak since the late 1960s. Why it's weak is pretty easy to explain, though. It's monetary policy divergence. Theory tells us that as long as capital is free to move, a country can't both control its interest rates and control the exchange rate at the same time.G10 economies typically choose to control rates and leave their currencies to float, and the US and Japan are no exception. So, while the while the Fed's policy rate has risen to multi-decade highs, Japan's has been left basically unchanged, consistent with its economic fundamentals.Now, you mentioned Japanese equities, which is also increasingly important to this story. As foreign investors have deployed more cash into the Japanese stock market, a lot of them have hedged their FX [foreign exchange] exposure, which means they're buying back dollars in the forward market. The more that Japanese equities rise, the more hedges they add, increasing dollar demand versus the yen.So, put simply, the best outcome for dollar yen to keep rising is for US rates versus Japan and Japanese equities to both keep marching higher. And for a lot of investors, this seems increasingly like their base case.Michael Zezas: That makes sense. And yet, despite the dollar's clear dominance at the moment, the consensus view on the dollar is that it's going to get weaker. Why is that the case and what's the market missing?James Lord: Yeah, the consensus has been on the wrong side of the dollar call for quite a few years now, with a persistently bearish outlook, which has largely been incorrect. I think for the most part this is because the consensus has underestimated the strength of the US economy. It wasn't that long ago when the consensus was calling for a hard landing in the US economy and a pretty deep easing cycle from the Fed. And yet here we are with GDP growth north of 2 per cent and murmurings of another rate hike entering the narrative. I also wonder whether this debate about de-dollarization, whereby the dollar's global influence starts to wane, has impacted the sentiment of forecasters a bit as well.We have seen over the past three to four years much more noise in the media on this topic, and there appears to be a correlation between the extent to which the consensus is expecting dollar weakness and the number of media articles that are discussing the dollar's status as the world's major reserve currency.Maybe that's coincidence, but it's also consistent with our view that the market generally worries too much about this issue and the impact that it could have on the dollar's outlook.Michael Zezas: Now there've been a few notable changes to Morgan Stanley's macro forecasts over the last few weeks. Our US economist, Ellen Zentner revised up her forecast for US growth and inflation. And she also pushed back our expectations for the first Fed cut. Along with this, our US rate strategy team also revised their 10-year treasury yield expectations higher. Do these updates to the macro-outlook impact your bullish view on the dollar, both near term and longer term?David Adams: So, higher US rates are often helpful for the dollar, but we think some nuance is required. It's not that US rates are moving; it's why they're moving. And our four-regime dollar framework shows that increases or decreases in rates can give us very different dollar outcomes depending on the reason why rates are moving.So far this year, rates have been moving higher in a pretty benign risk environment. And in a world where US real interest rates rise alongside equities; the dollar tends to go nowhere in the aggregate. It gains versus low yielding funders like the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the euro, but it tends to weaken versus those higher beta currencies with positive carry, like the Mexican peso. It's why we've been neutral on the dollar overall since the start of the year, but we still emphasize dollar strength, especially versus the euro.If rising rates were to start weighing on equities, that would lead the dollar to start rallying broadly, what we call Regime 3 of our framework. It's not our base case, but it's a risk we think markets are starting to get more nervous about. It suggests that the balance of risks are increasingly towards a higher dollar rather than a lower one.Michael Zezas: And finally, Dave, I wanted to ask about potential risks to the US dollar's current strength.David Adams: I'd say the clearest dollar negative risk for me is a rebound in European and Chinese growth. It's hard for investors to get excited about selling the dollar without a clear alternative to buy. A big rebound in rest of world growth could easily make those alternatives look more attractive, though how probable that outcome is remains debatable.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, this discussion of risk to the strong dollar may be a good time to pause. There's so much more to talk about here. We've barely scratched the surface. So, let's continue the conversation in the near future when we can talk more about the dollar status as the world's dominant reserve currency and potential challenges to that position.James Lord: This sounds like a great idea, Mike. Talk to you soon.David Adams: Likewise. Thanks for having me on the show and look forward to our next conversation.Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

European bourses are closed for Labour Day, with the exception of the UK's FTSE 100, which is incrementally firmer; US equity futures are entirely in the redDollar is flat with G10 peers also holding pattern awaiting a slew of US data and the FOMCUSTs are unchanged ahead of today's key events, with QRA also in focus; Gilts subduedCrude sinks lower, XAU is incrementally firmer and base metals are lower across the boardLooking ahead, US Manufacturing PMI, ISM, US ADP, JOLTS, FOMC Announcement, Treasury QRA, Fed Chair Powell, BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from CVS, Qualcomm, MetLife, Pfizer, ADP, Marriott, Estee Lauder, Mastercard & eBayRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry trade over? It all gets answered this week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Liong Mah of Liong Mah Design joins Bob "The Knife Junkie" DeMarco on Episode 498 of The Knife Junkie Podcast (https://theknifejunkie.com/498).Liong began his career with knives as a full-time chef in New York City. Liong Mah Design is the culmination of over 19 years of knife appreciation and design.Liong Mah Design features a broad catalogue of folders that seek to give the knife user of all types cutting performance in a simple package.The first Liong Mah design to get a lot of buzz and positive attention was the CRKT Eraser, a knife the Knife Junkie regrets selling!LMD folders range in usage from EDC to pocket food prep knives, from the lean and tactical to the embellished practical. In an effort to bring LMD to a broader market, Liong created Eutektik, a high-value folder line featuring Sandvik 14c28n or D2 blade steels and G10 and micarta liner lock handles.Liong spends countless hours on each design and works with the world's top manufacturers and machine shops to offer his superlative blades.Find Liong Mah Design online at https://liongmah.com and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/liongmah. Liong Mah Design also has a private Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/liongmahdesignspace.Be sure to support The Knife Junkie and get in on the perks of being a patron, including early access to the podcast and exclusive bonus content. Visit https://www.theknifejunkie.com/patreon for details. You can also support The Knife Junkie channel with your next knife purchase. Find our affiliate links at https://theknifejunkie.com/knives.Let us know what you thought about this episode and leave a rating and/or a review. Your feedback is appreciated. You can also call the listener line at 724-466-4487 or email bob@theknifejunkie.com with any comments, feedback, or suggestions.To watch or listen to past episodes of the podcast, visit https://theknifejunkie.com/listen. And for professional podcast hosting, use The Knife Junkie's podcast platform of choice: https://theknifejunkie.com/podhost.

Equities mostly, but modestly firmer; TSMC beat Q1 expectations, though lower in the pre-marketDollar slightly lower, G10's generally flat/firmer with newsflow lightBonds bid, continuing the upside seen following Wednesday's auctionCrude is at lows, pressured by Israel/Iran reports; XAU edges higherLooking ahead, US IJC, Philly Fed, Comments from ECB's Schnabel, Fed's Williams, Bowman & Bostic, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, L'Oreal, Netflix, Elevance Health & BlackstoneRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Volwest from Stati9n joins Bob "The Knife Junkie" DeMarco on Episode 496 of The Knife Junkie Podcast (https://theknifejunkie.com/496).Stati9n specializes in the development of unconventional tools and weapons for combatives and survival in austere environments and occupied zones.Inspired by the secret British WW2 organization S.O.E. ("Special Operations Executive"), whose purpose was to conduct espionage, sabotage, and reconnaissance in Axis-occupied Europe and Southeast Asia.Stati9n is also inspired by the weapons used by armies with limited resources during WW1, when butcher knives and other common household tools were modified for brutal trench warfare.Famous French knife maker and close combat specialist, Fred Perrin, collaborated with Stati9n in creating the Number Five Scorpion, a curved, double-edged self-protection knife designed around Perrin's signature forefinger retention hole.The company's offerings range from weapons for close quarters fighting to discreet but useful tools for minimalist urban and outback survival.Though knives are Stati9n's specialty, they also make other defensive tools, like a knuckle duster inspired by Austro-Hungarian knuckles from WW1; a non-metallic push dagger made of G10; and faux chopsticks, also made of G10, to give the owner something robust and stabby in non-permissive environments.Find Stati9n online at https://www.stati9n.com and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/station_9_/Be sure to support The Knife Junkie and get in on the perks of being a patron, including early access to the podcast and exclusive bonus content. Visit https://www.theknifejunkie.com/patreon for details. You can also support The Knife Junkie channel with your next knife purchase. Find our affiliate links at https://theknifejunkie.com/knives.Let us know what you thought about this episode and leave a rating and/or a review. Your feedback is appreciated. You can also call the listener line at 724-466-4487 or email bob@theknifejunkie.com with any comments, feedback, or suggestions.To watch or listen to past episodes of the podcast, visit https://theknifejunkie.com/listen. And for professional podcast hosting, use The Knife Junkie's podcast platform of choice: https://theknifejunkie.com/podhost.

European bourses are entirely in the green, Stateside futures are contained on either side of the unchanged markDollar is bid which has weighed on G10 peers, with EUR down to 1.0657Fixed complex higher with Bunds outperforming as markets digest Thursday's ECB announcement and Fed divergenceCrude is bid given the heightened geopolitical environment, XAU makes record highsLooking ahead, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), BoE Forecast Review, Fed's Collins, Schmid, Bostic & Daly, Earnings from Wells Fargo, JNJ & CitiRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are modestly firmer, US equity futures are in the red though with trade containedDollar is flat and G10 peers are incrementally softerUSTs are incrementally softer whilst Bunds are firmer after dovish-tilting speak from ultra-hawk Holzmann coupled with softer EZ-HICP metricsCrude is incrementally firmer but within recent levels, XAU is off bestLooking ahead, US ADP, ISM Services, Australian PMI (F), OPEC+ JMMC, Comments from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr & Kugler. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses hold a positive bias whilst Stateside futures are subdued ahead of a busy docketDollar bid acting as a drag on G10 peers, Antipodeans lagBonds are lower in a continuation of post-Waller price actionCrude and XAU remains in the green despite the stronger Dollar as geopols remain in focusLooking ahead, Highlights include US GDP (F), IJC, UoM Inflation Expectations (F), Japanese Tokyo CPI & Unemployment Rate, Comments from ECB's Knot, BoE's Mann & RBNZ's Orr, Earnings from Walgreens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities are modestly firmer; European sports retailers are hit post-Nike earningsDollar bid, largely a factor of broader G10 weakness, Antipodeans underperform following the glum mood in China overnightBonds continue their dovish price action, and little changed following positive German IfoCrude is modestly softer and base metals are entirely in the red, dragged down by Dollar strengthLooking ahead, Canadian Retail Sales, comments from ECB's Lane, Fed's Powell, Barr, Jefferson & BosticRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The USD has continued to rebound over the past week although it's performance has been mixed against other G10 currencies. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about what have been the main drivers of FX performance over the past week. Will the JPY weaken further after hitting fresh year to date lows? 

Original Release on November 14th, 2023: Our roundtable discussion on the future of the global economy and markets continues, as our analysts preview what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, housing and more.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what is ahead for the global economy and markets in 2024. It's Tuesday, November 14th at 10 a.m. in New York. Yesterday you heard from Seth Carpenter, our Global Chief Economist, and Mike Wilson, our Chief Investment Officer and the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, corporate credit, currencies and housing. I am joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist, James Lord, the Global Head of Currency and Emerging Markets Strategy, Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Credit Research, and Jay Bacow, Co-Head of U.S. Securities Products.Vishy Tirupattur: Matt, 2023 was quite a year for long end government bond yields globally. We saw dramatic curve inversion and long end yields reaching levels we had not seen in well over a decade. We've also seen both dramatic sell offs and dramatic rallies, even just in the last few weeks. Against this background, how do you see the outlook for government bond yields in 2024? Matt Hornbach: So we're calling our 2024 outlook for government bond markets the land of confusion. And it's because bond markets were whipped around so much by central banks in 2023 and in 2022. In the end, what central banks gave in terms of accommodative monetary policy in 2020 and 2021, they more than took away in 2022 and this past year. At least when it came to interest rate related monetary policies. 2024, of course, is going to be a pretty confusing year for investors because, as you've heard, our economists do think that rates are going to be coming down, but so too will balance sheets. But for the past couple of years, both G10 and EM central banks have raised rates to levels that we haven't seen in decades. Considering the possibility that equilibrium rates have trended lower over the past few decades, central bank policy rates may be actually much more restricted today than at any point since the 1970s. But, you know, we can't say the same for central bank balance sheets, even though they've been shrinking for well over a year now. They're still larger than before the pandemic. Now, our economists forecast continued declines in the balance sheets of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. But nevertheless, in aggregate, the balance sheet sizes of these G4 central banks will remain above their pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2024 and 2025.Vishy Tirupattur: Matt, across the developed markets. Where do you see the best opportunity for investors in the government bond markets? Matt Hornbach: So Vishy we think most of the opportunities in 2024 will be in Europe given the diverging paths between eurozone countries. Germany, Austria and Portugal will benefit from supportive supply numbers, while another group, including Italy, Belgium and Ireland will likely witness a higher supply dynamic. Our call for a re widening of EGB spreads should actually last longer than we originally anticipated. Elsewhere in Europe, we're expecting the Bank of England to deliver 100 basis points of cumulative cuts by the end of 2024, and that compares to significantly less that's priced in by the market. Hence, our forecasts for gilts imply a much lower level of yields and a steeper yield curve than what you see implied in current forward rates. So the UK probably presents the best duration and curve opportunity set in 2024. Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Matt. James, a strong dollar driven by upside surprises to U.S. growth and higher for longer narrative that has a world during the year characterized the strong dollar view for much of the year. How do you assess 2024 to be? And what differences do you expect between developed markets and emerging market currency markets? James Lord: So we expect the recent strengthening of US dollar to continue for a while longer. This stronger for a longer view on the US dollar is driven by some familiar drivers to what we witnessed in 2023, but with a little bit of nuance. So first, growth. US growth, while slowing, is expected to outperform consensus expectations and remain near potential growth rates in the first half of 2024. This is going to contrast quite sharply with recessionary or near recessionary conditions in Europe and pretty uncompelling rates of growth in China. The second reason we see continued dollar strength is rate differentials. So when we look at our US and European rate strategy teams forecasts, they have rates moving in favor of the dollar. Final reason is defense, really. The dollar likely is going to keep outperforming other currencies around the world due to its pretty defensive characteristics in a world of continued low growth, and downside risks from very tight central bank monetary policy and geopolitical risks. The dollar not only offers liquidity and safe haven status, but also high yields, which is of course making it pretty appealing. We don't expect this early strength in US Dollar to last all year, though, as fiscal support for the US economy falls back and the impact of high rates takes over, US growth slows down and the Fed starts to cut around the middle of the year. And once it starts cutting, our U.S. econ team expects it to cut all the way back to 2.25 to 2.5% by the end of 2025. So a deep easing cycle. As that outlook gets increasingly priced into the US rates, market rate differentials start moving against the dollar to push the currency down. Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, we are ending 2023 in a reasonably good setup for credit markets, especially at the higher quality end of the trade market. How do you expect this quality based divergence across global trade markets to play out in 2024? Andrew Sheets: That's right. We see a generally supportive environment for credit in 2024, aided by supportive fundamentals, supportive technicals and average valuations. Corporate credit, especially investment grade, is part of a constellation of high quality fixed income that we see putting up good returns next year, both outright and risk adjusted. When we talk about credit being part of this constellation of quality and looking attractive relative to other assets, it's important to appreciate the cross-asset valuations, especially relative to equities, really have moved. For most of the last 20 years the earnings yield on the S&P 500, that is the total earnings you get from the index relative to what you pay for it, has been much higher than the yield on U.S. triple B rated corporate bonds. But that's now flipped with the yield on corporate bonds now higher to one of the greatest extents we've seen outside of a crisis in 20 years. Theoretically, this higher yield on corporate bonds relative to the equity market should suggest a better relative valuation of the former. So what are we seeing now from companies? Well companies are buying back less stock and also issuing less debt than expected, exactly what you'd expect if companies saw the cost of their debt as high relative to where the equities are valued. A potential undershoot in corporate bonds supply could be met with higher bond demand. We've seen enormous year to date flows into money market funds that have absolutely dwarfed the flows into credit. But if the Fed really is done raising rates and is going to start to cut rates next year, as Morgan Stanley's economists expect, this could help push some of this money currently sitting in money market funds into bond funds, as investors look to lock in higher yields for longer. Against this backdrop, we think the credit valuations, for lack of a better word, are fine. With major markets in both the U.S. and Europe generally trading around their long term median and high yield looking a little bit expensive to investment grade within this. Valuations in Asia are the richest in our view, and that's especially true given the heightened economic uncertainty we see in the region. We think that credit curves offer an important way for investors to maximize the return of these kind of average spreads. And we like the 3 to 5 year part of the U.S. credit curve and the 5 to 10 year part of the investment grade curve in Europe the most. Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Andrew. Jay, 2023 was indeed a tough year for the agency in the US market, but for the US housing market it held up quite remarkably, despite the higher mortgage rates. As you look ahead to 2024, what is the outlook for US housing and the agency MBS markets and what are the key drivers of your expectations? Jay Bacow: Let's start off with the broader housing market before we get into the views for agency mortgages. Given our outlook for rates to rally next year, my co-head of securitized products research Jim Egan, who also runs US housing, thinks that we should expect affordability to improve and for sale inventory to increase. Both of these developments are constructive for housing activity, but the latter provides a potential counterbalance for home prices. Now, affordability will still be challenged, but the direction of travel matters. He expects housing activity to be stronger in the second half of '24 and for new home sales to increase more than existing home sales over the course of the full year. Home prices should see modest declines as the growth in inventory offsets the increased demand. But it's important to stress here that we believe homeowners retain strong hands in the cycle. We don't believe they will be forced sellers into materially weaker bids, and as such, we don't expect any sizable correction in prices. But we do see home prices down 3% by the end of 2024. Now, that pickup in housing activity means that issuance is going to pick up as well in the agency mortgage market modestly with an extra $50 billion versus where we think 2023 ends. We also think the Fed is going to be reducing their mortgage portfolio for the whole year, even as Q2 starts to taper in the fall, as the Fed allows their mortgage portfolio to run off unabated. And so the private market is going to have to digest about $510 billion mortgages next year, which is still a concerning amount but we think mortgages are priced for this. Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. And thank you, Matt, James and Andrew as well. And thank you to our listeners for joining us for this 2 part roundtable discussion of our expectations for the global economy and the markets in 2024. As a reminder, if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our roundtable discussion on the future of the global economy and markets continues, as our analysts preview what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, housing and more. ----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what is ahead for the global economy and markets in 2024. It's Tuesday, November 14th at 10 a.m. in New York. Yesterday you heard from Seth Carpenter, our Global Chief Economist, and Mike Wilson, our Chief Investment Officer and the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, corporate credit, currencies and housing. I am joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist, James Lord, the Global Head of Currency and Emerging Markets Strategy, Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Credit Research, and Jay Bacow, Co-Head of U.S. Securities Products.Vishy Tirupattur: Matt, 2023 was quite a year for long end government bond yields globally. We saw dramatic curve inversion and long end yields reaching levels we had not seen in well over a decade. We've also seen both dramatic sell offs and dramatic rallies, even just in the last few weeks. Against this background, how do you see the outlook for government bond yields in 2024? Matt Hornbach: So we're calling our 2024 outlook for government bond markets the land of confusion. And it's because bond markets were whipped around so much by central banks in 2023 and in 2022. In the end, what central banks gave in terms of accommodative monetary policy in 2020 and 2021, they more than took away in 2022 and this past year. At least when it came to interest rate related monetary policies. 2024, of course, is going to be a pretty confusing year for investors because, as you've heard, our economists do think that rates are going to be coming down, but so too will balance sheets. But for the past couple of years, both G10 and EM central banks have raised rates to levels that we haven't seen in decades. Considering the possibility that equilibrium rates have trended lower over the past few decades, central bank policy rates may be actually much more restricted today than at any point since the 1970s. But, you know, we can't say the same for central bank balance sheets, even though they've been shrinking for well over a year now. They're still larger than before the pandemic. Now, our economists forecast continued declines in the balance sheets of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. But nevertheless, in aggregate, the balance sheet sizes of these G4 central banks will remain above their pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2024 and 2025.Vishy Tirupattur: Matt, across the developed markets. Where do you see the best opportunity for investors in the government bond markets? Matt Hornbach: So Vishy we think most of the opportunities in 2024 will be in Europe given the diverging paths between eurozone countries. Germany, Austria and Portugal will benefit from supportive supply numbers, while another group, including Italy, Belgium and Ireland will likely witness a higher supply dynamic. Our call for a re widening of EGB spreads should actually last longer than we originally anticipated. Elsewhere in Europe, we're expecting the Bank of England to deliver 100 basis points of cumulative cuts by the end of 2024, and that compares to significantly less that's priced in by the market. Hence, our forecasts for gilts imply a much lower level of yields and a steeper yield curve than what you see implied in current forward rates. So the UK probably presents the best duration and curve opportunity set in 2024. Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Matt. James, a strong dollar driven by upside surprises to U.S. growth and higher for longer narrative that has a world during the year characterized the strong dollar view for much of the year. How do you assess 2024 to be? And what differences do you expect between developed markets and emerging market currency markets? James Lord: So we expect the recent strengthening of US dollar to continue for a while longer. This stronger for a longer view on the US dollar is driven by some familiar drivers to what we witnessed in 2023, but with a little bit of nuance. So first, growth. US growth, while slowing, is expected to outperform consensus expectations and remain near potential growth rates in the first half of 2024. This is going to contrast quite sharply with recessionary or near recessionary conditions in Europe and pretty uncompelling rates of growth in China. The second reason we see continued dollar strength is rate differentials. So when we look at our US and European rate strategy teams forecasts, they have rates moving in favor of the dollar. Final reason is defense, really. The dollar likely is going to keep outperforming other currencies around the world due to its pretty defensive characteristics in a world of continued low growth, and downside risks from very tight central bank monetary policy and geopolitical risks. The dollar not only offers liquidity and safe haven status, but also high yields, which is of course making it pretty appealing. We don't expect this early strength in US Dollar to last all year, though, as fiscal support for the US economy falls back and the impact of high rates takes over, US growth slows down and the Fed starts to cut around the middle of the year. And once it starts cutting, our U.S. econ team expects it to cut all the way back to 2.25 to 2.5% by the end of 2025. So a deep easing cycle. As that outlook gets increasingly priced into the US rates, market rate differentials start moving against the dollar to push the currency down. Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, we are ending 2023 in a reasonably good setup for credit markets, especially at the higher quality end of the trade market. How do you expect this quality based divergence across global trade markets to play out in 2024? Andrew Sheets: That's right. We see a generally supportive environment for credit in 2024, aided by supportive fundamentals, supportive technicals and average valuations. Corporate credit, especially investment grade, is part of a constellation of high quality fixed income that we see putting up good returns next year, both outright and risk adjusted. When we talk about credit being part of this constellation of quality and looking attractive relative to other assets, it's important to appreciate the cross-asset valuations, especially relative to equities, really have moved. For most of the last 20 years the earnings yield on the S&P 500, that is the total earnings you get from the index relative to what you pay for it, has been much higher than the yield on U.S. triple B rated corporate bonds. But that's now flipped with the yield on corporate bonds now higher to one of the greatest extents we've seen outside of a crisis in 20 years. Theoretically, this higher yield on corporate bonds relative to the equity market should suggest a better relative valuation of the former. So what are we seeing now from companies? Well companies are buying back less stock and also issuing less debt than expected, exactly what you'd expect if companies saw the cost of their debt as high relative to where the equities are valued. A potential undershoot in corporate bonds supply could be met with higher bond demand. We've seen enormous year to date flows into money market funds that have absolutely dwarfed the flows into credit. But if the Fed really is done raising rates and is going to start to cut rates next year, as Morgan Stanley's economists expect, this could help push some of this money currently sitting in money market funds into bond funds, as investors look to lock in higher yields for longer. Against this backdrop, we think the credit valuations, for lack of a better word, are fine. With major markets in both the U.S. and Europe generally trading around their long term median and high yield looking a little bit expensive to investment grade within this. Valuations in Asia are the richest in our view, and that's especially true given the heightened economic uncertainty we see in the region. We think that credit curves offer an important way for investors to maximize the return of these kind of average spreads. And we like the 3 to 5 year part of the U.S. credit curve and the 5 to 10 year part of the investment grade curve in Europe the most. Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Andrew. Jay, 2023 was indeed a tough year for the agency in the US market, but for the US housing market it held up quite remarkably, despite the higher mortgage rates. As you look ahead to 2024, what is the outlook for US housing and the agency MBS markets and what are the key drivers of your expectations? Jay Bacow: Let's start off with the broader housing market before we get into the views for agency mortgages. Given our outlook for rates to rally next year, my co-head of securitized products research Jim Egan, who also runs US housing, thinks that we should expect affordability to improve and for sale inventory to increase. Both of these developments are constructive for housing activity, but the latter provides a potential counterbalance for home prices. Now, affordability will still be challenged, but the direction of travel matters. He expects housing activity to be stronger in the second half of '24 and for new home sales to increase more than existing home sales over the course of the full year. Home prices should see modest declines as the growth in inventory offsets the increased demand. But it's important to stress here that we believe homeowners retain strong hands in the cycle. We don't believe they will be forced sellers into materially weaker bids, and as such, we don't expect any sizable correction in prices. But we do see home prices down 3% by the end of 2024. Now, that pickup in housing activity means that issuance is going to pick up as well in the agency mortgage market modestly with an extra $50 billion versus where we think 2023 ends. We also think the Fed is going to be reducing their mortgage portfolio for the whole year, even as Q2 starts to taper in the fall, as the Fed allows their mortgage portfolio to run off unabated. And so the private market is going to have to digest about $510 billion mortgages next year, which is still a concerning amount but we think mortgages are priced for this. Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. And thank you, Matt, James and Andrew as well. And thank you to our listeners for joining us for this 2 part roundtable discussion of our expectations for the global economy and the markets in 2024. As a reminder, if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.