Podcasts about euro area

Euro defense spend benefits US contractors near-term European plans to spend more on defense as a percentage of GDP were hatched in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. More recently, the German Parliament agreed to reforms that allow for even more spending on defense. But for a number of reasons, Europe would like to keep more of this spending within the Euro Area. Ron Epstein and Ben Heelan discuss what Europe may be able to procure internally and what they'll be buying from US contractors. And if the US is spending less on defending Europe, Ron addresses where spending priorities may shift, especially as the US may be less focused on preparing for a land war. Ron also tackles the question of whether Europe may be encouraged to buy more defense gear in exchange for lower tariffs.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

In this week's episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone?Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a massive fiscal stimulus package in Germany. Is this a game changing moment for the Euro Area economy and the common currency?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Daniel looks at the latest German elections and how that would feed into your investments. Speaker:  - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube. 

Join our discussion of the ECB's decisions and communication following its rate setting meeting on January 30, 2025 and learn about the outlook for Euro Area growth, inflation and interest rates.

In this episode, we welcome Clemens Fuest, President of Germany's Ifo Institute, for an in-depth discussion on economic challenges and the urgent reforms needed to get Germany back on track. We dissect (i) what's behind Germany's economic underperformance compared to its Euro Area peers, (ii) whether the upcoming elections deliver a chance for economic recovery, and (iii) what measures might be best suited to achieve a growth rebound.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world seems to be bracing for the uncertainties of the incoming US Administration, but it is starting from a generally resilient position (although that doesn't seem to include New Zealand).But first, the week ahead will be dominated locally by our Q4 CPI release. Markets expect a 2.1% year-on-year rate, only marginally less than the Q3 rate of 2.2%. We will also get another full dairy auction on Wednesday too. The REINZ will release its December data sometime, maybe Tuesday. And we can expect other banks to react to ASB's home loan rate reductions.Elsewhere, there will be more PMI releases, GDP releases for South Korea and Taiwan, and rate decisions from Norway, Turkey, Malaysia, and the big one from Japan at the end of the week. Data out of Australia will be minor this coming week. But all the while, important earnings reports will flow on Wall StreetOver the weekend, China said new home prices in 70 cities dropped by an average -5.3% in December from a year ago, slowing from a -5.7% decline in the previous month. This was the softest fall since August but is the 18th consecutive month of decreases. "Second hand home" prices fell faster, and there were no cities where prices rose. The string of decreases come despite efforts from Beijing to reduce the impacts of a prolonged property weakness, efforts such as lowering mortgage rates and cutting home buying costs.China released data that showed electricity production was only up +0.6% from a year ago in December. For the whole of 2024 the rise was +4.6%. The year ended weakly with neither November nor December rising more than +1%. This is a telling indicator of real activity. (This is the metric then-to-be Premier Li Keqiang famously referred to after dismissing their GDP results.)But they said industrial production was up +6.2% in December. Retail sales were up +3.7%. And through all this they claimed Q4-2024 GDP rose +5.4% and its fastest pace of the year. Frankly, that is hard to see based on the components that make it up. Apparently it is based on export growth, but as good as that is, it is hard to see that behind the claimed growth. But the links here, plus this one, and they should be enough to inspect their data and for you to make your own judgement.Singapore's exports surged +9% in December from the same month a year ago, after a +3.4% gain in November. This exceeded the +7.4% rise in November and is the fastest pace in export growth since August. A key driver is a sharp rebound in non-electronic product sales.Globally, the January update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook estimated global growth to be +3.3% in 2025, a slight increase from the 3.2% forecast in October. The rise was driven by the US which offset downgrades in other major economies. Growth for 2026 is also expected at 3.3%, unchanged from the previous projection.They say the US faces upside risks that could bolster growth in the near term, but other nations remain exposed to downside risks amid heightened policy uncertainty. The US economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2025 (vs 2.2% in October), and China's GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 4.6% (vs 4.5%).Conversely, the Euro Area's growth projection was downgraded to 1% (vs 1.2%), while Japan's growth forecast remains steady at 1.1%. Projections for India's GDP growth were maintained at 6.5%. Australia is expected to grow +2.1% in 2025 and +2.2% in 2026. New Zealand doesn't get a mention in these forecasts.Underscoring the US growth upgrade, American housing starts surged by almost +16% from the previous month to an annualised rate of 1.5 mln units in December, the most since March 2021 and well above the expected 1.32 mln level.And industrial production in the US was up an outsized +0.9% in December and well above the +0.3% expected rise to the strongest increase since February. It was helped by the end of strikes, and a jump in the production of aircraft.But there is a bump in the road about to start: the latest US debt limit deal is about to expire very soon. The new US Administration will have to grapple with that in its early days. Trump wants no debt limits to constrain his tax cuts and spending plans, but his hardline conservative supporters won't agree to more deficits. This will be interesting.Trump has already had an effect on the US Federal Reserve, getting them to withdraw from the 144 member NGFS. of which the RBNZ.And separately, we should probably note that the aluminium price is at a two month high, and heading toward a two year high.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.62%, and up +2 bps from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$2702/oz and down -US$14 from Saturday.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$81.The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 55.9 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we unchanged at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday, but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,704 and down -0.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

SUMMARY: Inflation in the Euro Area rises in October, home construction in the South falls across the board, and President Trump picks Howard Lutnick for his Commerce Secretary.  SHOW LINKS:Inflation Rises in the Euro Area in OctoberTrump Selects Lutnick to Head Commerce DepartmentResidential Construction Down Across the Board in the SouthDISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

In this episode, we explore the inflation outlook for the Euro Area, honing in on whether medium-term inflation could once again fall short of the ECB's target, as it did before the pandemic. While there's little evidence in current data to suggest an imminent undershoot—thanks to robust wage growth, persistent service price inflation, and ample room for monetary policy easing—some of these factors may ease in the coming year. This makes it crucial to keep a close eye on potential risks of undershooting.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that while officials cut policy interest rates, markets are bidding up benchmark bond rates.But first, there was another aggressive fall in the level of American mortgage applications last week, down almost -7% from the prior week, and extending the -17% plunge from that earlier period. But they are +3% higher than year-ago levels. Mortgage interest rates have been rising although they held last week at 6.73%. But they are still well down on the year-ago 7.16% level.Perhaps the fall in mortgage applications is due to the weak state of their housing demand. Existing-home sales fell -1.0% in September from August to an annual rate of 3.84 mln. That is a -3.5% dip from one year ago. And they are on track for their worst year since 1995. American money isn't 'invested' in housing, it is in financial markets.There was a well-supported US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today which delivered a median yield of 4.53%. But that was an outsized hike from the 3.97% at the prior equivalent event only one month ago.The US Fed released its October Beige Book review of the surveys in all its districts and it was unremarkable, only finding modest improvements.American petrol prices keep on easing at the pump, now -11.1% lower than year-ago levels.And as widely anticipated, Canada cut its official interest rate by -50 bps to 3.75% overnight. They signaled that they will continue to chop the rate should their economy develop as expected. The decision increased the pace of rate cuts following three -25 bps reductions, and this aligns with their recent sharp slowdown in Canadian inflation. Some expect another -50 bps cut at their December meeting.Singapore's core inflation rate rose again but only to 2.8%. This central bank version is different to the normal CPI because it is the one most influential on their rate settings.Taiwanese retail sales were up +3.2% in the year to September. And their industrial production was up +12.1% on the same basis.In China, it is still a long way off, but the retail event known as "Singles Day, or "11-11" (November 11) has kicked off early promotions and by some [official] reports is building momentum. It is a world-scale retail event, probably larger than "Black Friday" in the US and elsewhere.And staying in China, they are raising petrol prices again, their ninth rise of 2024. They blame "rising crude oil prices" which is a bit of a reach given they have fallen -13.3% over the past year.Consumer confidence in the Euro Area improved in October to its highest since February 2022. This was as expected. However, it remains negative but has now risen back to its long-term average for the first time in 32 months.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.25% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2720/oz and down -US$22 from yesterday.Oil prices are -US$1.50 lower at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are back down -20 bps at 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,928 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Join us this week as we tackle a pressing issue facing the Euro Area: fiscal consolidation. With debt-to-GDP ratios near historic highs in many economies, reducing deficits is critical—but not without risks to economic growth. Our special guest, Roel Beetsma, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Amsterdam, offers his insights on questions like: Is there a way to cut deficits without hurting growth? How does population aging impact public budgets and political pressures? What new strains are digitalization and the green transition placing on Europe's fiscal future? And have we reached a breaking point in Europe's fiscal stability culture? Tune in for an in-depth discussion on these challenges and the difficult choices European policymakers are grappling with.

Daniel discusses the recent uptick in Euro area economic expectations and how investors should be positioning themselves.Speaker:- Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of powerful forces at work in both the US and China.All eyes today will be on the opening of the Shanghai equity markets after their week-long holiday. Many think outsized gains are likely. Over that same period the Hong Kong index rose +12%. And those changes will be in anticipation of the yet-to-be announced fiscal stimulus program that Beijing has signaled. There are high expectations. But investors are probably sensing they can't lose with the central bank's logic-changing ¥800 bln (US$115 bln) capital market support measure in place.But with 'buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact' mentality of many investors, who knows what will happen. Some fund managers will feel they don't want to miss a unique profit opportunity, others are more sceptical the economic fundamentals are not getting proper attention.China can afford to throw money at their issues. Their foreign exchange reserves rose by +US$28 bln to US$3.316 tln (¥23 tln) in September, slightly more than expected. And it built to its highest level since late 2015. Their gold holding rose in value too, but only because of the rising price.Japan's leading economic index, which was expected to rise slightly, in fact fell and by quite a dip. In fact it was their lowest reading since 2020. They will be hoping this is a rogue result.European retail sales were expected to rise in August and they did, coming in +0.8% higher in 'real' terms than a year ago for the Euro Area. But that undershot expectations of a +1.0% rise. For the wider EU bloc, things were slightly better.Germany factory orders were weak in August, down -3.9% from a year ago. But that was a correction from the +4.6% rise in July.In the US, Hurricane Milton strengthened into a monster Category 5 hurricane as races towards Florida's west coast. Cat 5 storms are rare. Given what Helene did recently (Cat 4), residents have begun to flee inland in large numbers. Hopefully it will lose strength before it hits Florida. It is still deep in the western Caribbean Sea about 1000 kms from landfall.After a +US$25 bln rise in July, American consumer debt was expected to rise another +US$12 bln in August. In fact this expected data wasn't available when we published, so we will update this item when it is released.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.02% and up +5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2644/oz and down -US$9 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just on US$77/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$80.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.2 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps to 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 69.3, and down -30 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at USA$63,601 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production.  Chapters: US (01:20), Europe (05:55), Asia (10:27)

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the world's second-largest economy is having trouble convincing anyone it is under control.This coming week it will be all about the US Fed rate decisions, and the size of the rate cut. We will get that on Thursday NZT. And there will be central bank rate decisions this week from Japan, Norway, China, the UK, and Turkey. Australia will release its labour market updates. And of course, the New Zealand Q2 GDP result will also come Thursday.But over the weekend it was mostly about China.China's industrial production rose by +4.5% in August from a year ago, falling short of market forecasts and slowing from July. This was the softest growth since March, and the fourth straight month of a slowdown. But at least it was confirmed by their electricity production data, up +5.8%. It is rare that electricity use exceeds industrial production expansion, so perhaps that is an encouraging signal for them.But China's retail sales underperformed, rising just +2.1% from a year ago in August, moderating from +2.7% growth in the prior month and missing market consensus of +2.5%. Lower car sales kept a lid on this sector amid unusual weather events this summer.New home prices in 70 cities fell faster, down -5.3%in August, after a -4.9% fall in the previous month. It was the 14th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015, despite Beijing's extensive measures to reverse a downturn in the property sector, such as trimming mortgage rates and reducing home buying costs.Every one of those cities recorded a fall in these official stats for used houses. The largest was the -13% fall in Wuhan. When resales lose money it will be very hard to sell new ones.So it will be no surprise that their August data shows new loan growth remains very subdued in what is extending to be unusual difficult trading conditions. Chinese banks extended +¥900 bln in new yuan loans in August, above a fifteen-year low of ¥260 bln in July, but less than the expected bounce-back. It is also the lowest value for an August month since 2015.And it won't be a surprise to that August FDI was particularly weak, down more than -48% in the year to August from the same period in 2023.We have noted the trend before, but the weak Chinese economy is driving a bond rally there. Yields fell to a new record low on Thursday, and state banks have been drafted in to sell some of their long-dated bonds to try and stem the rally. But until more confidence returns to the Chinese economy generally, it unlikely to work. If Beijing institutions don't have the firepower to move this market, it is unlikely the core SOE banks do either.In a rare statement with the loan growth data release, the central bank indicated that new stimulus is on the way to shore up the economy. Late last week, President Xi exhorted his government to ensure the 5% growth target is reached this year. Xi's intervention came after widespread voices warned that the 5% target was probably out of reach.Coming at a time that isn't convenient for their economy, China is going into an end-of-summer period of public holidays. First there is the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, September 15 to 17, a total of 3 days off - but where Saturday, September 14 has been declared a workday. That will be followed by the seven-day "National Day" holiday from October 1 to 7. But that is being offset by making it full workdays on September 29 (Sunday) and October 12 (Saturday). One consequence of all this time off is that foreign travel is expected to boom. Visa-free policies and lower air fares is seeing the number of Chinese booking holidays abroad surge.In India, officials there are chaffing over creditor moves in the US to put Byjus into bankruptcy. Indian officials have arbitrarily removed the creditors who petitioned the US court that ruled on bankruptcy, from the creditor processes in India. It might get quite messy.In Europe, July industrial production (real) was flat from June in the EU, but lower in the wider Euro Area. From a year ago the declines are -2.2% and -1.7% respectively.In Russia, their central bank increased its policy rate by +100 bps to 19% in a move markets did not expect. They are battling high inflation in a war economy that is distorting faster than their central bank is comfortable with.And in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey increased for a 2nd month in September, to its highest level since May. This was above what was expected. Both current conditions and expectations improved, topping estimates. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead declined to 2.7% but those for the next five years rose marginally to 3.1%.You will recall that the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate two weeks ago, by -25 bps to 4.25%. But now the talk there is of much bigger cuts at their next meeting on October 24 (NZT). Maybe -50 bps, or more.And in Australia, the trend well established here is showing up there. Sharply more listings, lower auction clearance rates, and falling prices. Now observers are saying it has turned into a buyer's market, especially in the eastern States.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.66% and unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$2578/oz and down -US$4 from its Saturday new all-time high.Oil prices aresofter by -50 USc at US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we have dipped slightly to 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3, and unchanged from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,791 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis in their recently published update on Euro area government bonds demand.   This podcast was recorded on10 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4787964-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Two offshore banking and wealth management experts will discuss their opinions on the Fed and its Jackson Hole meeting and the direction of the U.S. central bank's policy. They will also discuss the Euro Area's inflation environment and its major economies. Sign up for the Swiss View to stay up-to-date! Welcome to our weekly dive into the heart of global finance! Join WHVP offshoring banking and investing experts as they dissect the pulse of the world economy from a Swiss perspective, bringing you insights into the most pressing topics and trends. Each discussion offers a unique perspective on the economic landscape, shedding light on the challenges and opportunities that shape our interconnected world.                 Whether you're a seasoned economist, a curious observer, or simply someone interested in global finance, our weekly journey through the intricacies of macroeconomics and global finance is designed to be enlightening and thought-provoking. We warmly invite you to join us as we navigate the complexities of international finance, fostering a community of learning and discussion.                Contact WHVP:   Website: ⁠⁠https://whvp.ch/⁠⁠   Email: ⁠⁠info@whvp.ch⁠⁠   Telephone: +41 44 315 77 77     About WHVP:   WHVP is an independent asset manager specialized in managing private clients' funds in offshore bank accounts to preserve their hard-earned legacies. We are registered with the U.S. SEC and FINMA (the Swiss regulatory authorities) and located in Zurich, Switzerland. We are associated with several first-class private banks in Switzerland and Liechtenstein, which act as custodian banks for our client's accounts. Our asset management principles are guided by conservative, long-term-oriented capital preservation strategies. Our focus is personalized service. We structure a portfolio that will be insulated against U.S. Dollar depreciation yet capitalize on overseas investment opportunities.  Disclaimer: All posts and publications are for your information only. They are not intended as an offer, promotion, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or perform any other financial transactions. All information and opinions expressed in posts and publications reflect our current views as of the publication date and may be liable to change without notice.

Daniel discusses how the Fed pivot would influence Euro-area assets, and how investors should be positioning themselvesSpeaker:- Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29)

Urs and Jess will discuss the Euro Area's inflation data and the rumblings around Europe's major economies. They also discuss the implications of the FED interest rate cut in this Weekly Market Review. They will also get into Switzerland's economic consent and China's foreign direct investment (FDI) disaster. Welcome to our weekly dive into the heart of global finance! Join Jess and Urs as they dissect the pulse of the world economy from a Swiss perspective, bringing you insights into the most pressing topics and trends. Each discussion offers a unique perspective on the economic landscape, shedding light on the challenges and opportunities that shape our interconnected world. Whether you're a seasoned economist, a curious observer, or simply someone interested in global finance, our journey through the intricacies of macroeconomics and global finance promises to be enlightening and thought-provoking. We warmly invite you to join us every week as we navigate the complexities of international finance, fostering a community of learning and discussion. Contact WHVP: Website: ⁠⁠https://whvp.ch/⁠⁠ Email: ⁠⁠info@whvp.ch⁠⁠ Telephone: +41 44 315 77 77 About WHVP: WHVP is an independent asset manager specialized in managing private clients' funds in offshore bank accounts to preserve their hard-earned legacies. We are registered with the U.S. SEC and FINMA (the Swiss regulatory authorities) and located in Zurich, Switzerland. We are associated with several first-class private banks in Switzerland and Liechtenstein, which act as custodian banks for our client's accounts. Our asset management principles are guided by conservative, long-term-oriented capital preservation strategies. Our focus is personalized service. We structure a portfolio that will be insulated against U.S. Dollar depreciation yet capitalize on overseas investment opportunities. #economicanalysis #interestrates #inflation #usa #china #Germany #USD #europe #switzerland #economy #GDP #FDI #growth #swissmoneysecrets #offshorebanking #swissbankaccount #WHVP Disclaimer: All posts and publications are for your information only. They are not intended as an offer, promotion, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or perform any other financial transactions. All information and opinions expressed in posts and publications reflect our current views as of the publication date and may be liable to change without notice.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news two big central banks have been active in their signaling over the past 24 hours.First up today, as many expected the US Fed sent a clear signal that they are more open to a September rate cut. That first came from changed wording in their no-change statement that was more balanced between the two aspects of their mandate: inflation and jobs. Powell then confirmed a potential September rate cut at his press conference.Because this was largely what was assumed in advance, there has been no major financial market reaction, but the reactions there were, were 'positive'.The US dollar slipped marginally on the news, the S&P500 rose after already being up sharply. The benchmark UST 10yr fell -3 bps.The US ADP jobs report came in lower than the expected +150,000 gain. It reported a gain of just +122,000 in July. This is the precursor report to the official non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show a +175,000 gain when it is reported on Saturday (NZT). The ADP Report slowing is consistent with the Fed's expectation that the labour market is not pushing undue labour market pressure on the US economy.The Chicago PMI also came in very much as expected, also not putting upward pressure on inflation from the heartland factory sector.And neither are American pending home sales. They may have risen in June from May, but they are still lower year-on-year.However, mortgage applications are still shrinking, despite mortgage interest rates staying well below 7%.The Bank of Japan actually has raised its official policy rate, and from 0.1% to 0.25% with a +15 bps hike late yesterday. They also said they will cut their bond buying activity. This has been seen as an aggressive move that signals the central bank's growing confidence in the recovery of the domestic economy and its concern about the sharply weaker yen.The yen appreciated significantly. Equities rose. Their benchmark bond yields rose.Taiwan's GDP expanded +5.1% real in Q2-2024, high, but less than the very high +6.6% rate in Q1-2024. Both were the best results since the pandemic recovery, and back to their long golden economic expansion between 1994 and 2008.China's official July factory PMI fell slightly into a further contraction. Their official services PMI fell to a very minor expansion. Both were about what was expected, but neither is very promising.In Europe, their Euro Area inflation rate unexpectedly edged up to 2.6% in July from 2.5% in June, when forecasts expected it would slow to 2.4%. The larger economies kept it elevated, the smaller ones generally reported lower rates.In contrast, Russian inflation hit 8.6% and well higher than the +6.3% rise in retail sales. War inflation is eating them up, which is why their central bank recently raised its policy interest rate to 18%. And it is not going to help that Russia is having to double its 'bonuses' for fighting in their invasion army.The Q2-2024 CPI in Australia rose to 3.8%, exactly as analysts expected. Their June month inflation indicator came in at the same 3.8%. Markets seem to have focused on the 'trimmed mean' quarter-on-quarter rate of +0.8% which was lower than expected - and concluded the RBA is likely to hold rates unchanged next week.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.10% and down another -4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up another +US$20 from yesterday at US$2426/oz.Oil prices are +US$3 higher at just over US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$80.50/bbl. Rising Middle-East tensions are behind the move.The Kiwi dollar starts today another +40 bps firmer at just on 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are almost +1c higher at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up another +40 bps at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.5 and up +40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,595 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we may now be much closer to rate cuts in some major economies.But first, this week we are looking at some big set-piece data and policy items from the US, mainly at the end of the week. The week will end with their non-farm payrolls and another +185,000 gain is expected there. Before that, Thursday's (NZT) US Fed decision will no doubt give some greater clarity as to when their rate cut is coming. Inflation and labour-market developments should allow them to signal that a cut is very possible at their following meeting, in September. And the upcoming third week of their Q2 earnings season will be full of majors reporting.Elsewhere there will be important data coming too. Japan, Brazil and England will deliver central bank rate reviews. CPI data will come from Australia, the EU and South Korea. And Q2-GDP will come from the EU. And there will be a wider set of PMIs for July released, including from China.And over the weekend, China said profits earned by their industrial firms rose by +5.6% in June from the same month a year ago. But that was a weak base. From June 2022 they were actually down -8.4%. These latest figures came amid a fragile economic recovery in the face of sluggish domestic demand, deflation risks, and a persistent property weakness. Profits in state-owned enterprises rose a mere +0.3% while those in private sector continued to rise, up +6.8%.Although we should note that steel rebar prices have sunk to their lowest level in over seven years, amid poor demand and ample supply in China, we also need to know that the Chinese government mandated fresh quality standards for steel rebar to start in late September, driving mills and traders to flood their market with old stockpiles before the new standards for the metal are applied. Export rebar will also be unusually cheap at present. All this is coming while their general economy is weak.Staying in China, they have some other rather serious flooding problems. We haven't made a big deal about this because it happens every year. But this year is extreme even for them, and it has come earlier. Beijing is worried and had a special meeting about these risks. Also unusual is that they issued a statement after the meeting. “China's climate conditions are abnormal, with frequent and prolonged heavy rainfall, early and rapid development of river floods, and some areas repeatedly hit by heavy rains, making the flood control situation severe and complex” they said.And this is a guess on our part, but the Chinese data on foreign direct investment is unusually late for June. Perhaps it doesn't look good?In the US, their annual PCE inflation rate released over the weekend eased to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May, in line with market forecasts. The month-on-month change was minor. The core PCE rates are marginally higher than the overall rates, but trending lower. Markets are assuming the US Fed will like this data, and reacted accordingly.Inflation expectations In the Euro Area remained unchanged at 2.8% in June. (A year ago, these inflation expectations were running at 3.5%.) Inflation Expectations in the Euro area have averaged 3.4% from 2020 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 5.8% in October 2022 - and a record low of 1.9% in October 2020.The Russian central bank hiked its policy rate +200 bps to 18%. This was not unexpected however. They are seeing domestic demand outstripping the limited supply capacity that the Russian economy is able to offer, triggering aggressive inflationary pressures and warranting higher borrowing costs. Besides the pressure on supply capacity from Western sanctions, they also noted that labour shortages are building fast in the fallout from the military mobilisation and the resulting sharp diaspora of working-age men.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.20% and unchanged from Saturday. Week two of the Wall Street earnings season shows that more companies are delivering earnings results above analyst estimates, but investors are rewarding that out-performance less than they usually do.The price of gold will start today with a small +US$3 shift up from Saturday at US$2386/oz.Oil prices are 50 USc softer at just over US$76/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$79.50/bbl. These are the lowest levels since early June.The Kiwi dollar starts today marginally softer at just under 58.9 USc. A week ago it was at 60.1 USc so -1¼c lower since. That is a -3.4% devaluation since the start of the month. Against the Aussie we are holding at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are softish at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.9 and unchanged from Saturday and near a two year low. This is down -110 bps from the start of last week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,772 and up a +0.4% from this time Saturday. A week ago this price was US$66,552 so up +1.8% since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Ravi Balakrishnan, Chief European Economist, and Alexander Wise, from Long-term Strategy discuss a new special report on debt challenges in the Euro area. This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725211-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures.  © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the IMF seems the global economy in a "sticky spot".But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy auction defied recent trends and the futures market. Instead of another retreat, in fact it held, virtually unchanged (+0.4). But the two key powders did decline, just not as much as expected. SMP was down -1.1% (less than the -2% expected) and WMP was down -1.6% (much less than the -6% expected). The event was rescued by the +6.2% rise in Cheddar cheese and to a lesser extent the +0.8% rise in the butter price. The small +0.4% gain in USD was enhanced to +0.8% in NZD.Now all eyes will turn to the New Zealand consumers' price index for the June quarter, which will be released at 10:45am today. Check back then because we will have full coverage of data that could well be market-moving.Overnight, American retail sales rose +2.3% in June from a year ago, not quite enough for this to be a 'real' gain, but closer than recently. There was no change between May and June, because car sales took a breather.So far in 2024, American car repossessions are up +23% compared with the same period last year, according to data from Cox Automotive. That comes after a long low period however, but they are up +14% from pre-pandemic levels.And last week, retail sales as measured by the Redbook Index for physical stores rose much less than recently, although the year-on-year gain was still an impressive +4.8%. But is was the weakest gain since late March.Slowing American retail sales growth its putting upward pressure in business inventories, although again, this is relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. In May they were +1.7% higher than a year ago, but related to current sales levels they are unchanged.In Canada, CPI inflation for June was released overnight and it eased to 2.7% from 2.9% in the prior month. This wasn't expected because markets ad assumed it would remain at the 2.9% mark. The Canadians have already started their easing cycle in their policy interest rate, even though they target a 2% midpoint in a 1-3% range.Perhaps the 'early start' is needed because they had a rather sharp drop in new housing starts in June, down by more than -20,000 or -9% from May. Vancouver fell -13%, due to sharp falls in multi-unit starts; Toronto crashed -37% for the same reason.The IMF expects the global economy to grow 3.2% in 2024, the same as in the April outlook but the 2025 growth forecast was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. For 2024, they revised their forecasts for the US down to 2.6% (vs 2.7%), reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year. In Europe, growth for the Euro Area is seen higher (0.9% vs 0.8%). In Asia, growth forecasts were also revised higher for both China (5% vs 4.6%) and India (7% vs 6.8%) while the Japanese GDP in seen expanding at a slower pace (0.7% vs 0.9%). For Australia, they marginally lowered their 2024 estimate -0.1% but left 2025 unchanged. New Zealand did not get a mention in this report. Meanwhile, they warned that services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalisation.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17% and down -5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$42 from yesterday at US$2464/oz and that is an all-time record high.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$83.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today sharply lower at 60.4 USc and down nearly another -½c. Against the Aussie we are down at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3 and down -30 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,426 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of the unavoidable reporting of a Chinese economic stumble.But first up today, we should note that Fed boss Powell was speaking and said the three American inflation readings in the June quarter do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion. They were remarks that suggest interest rate cuts may not be far off for them.In their real economy, the NY Empire State survey of factories wasn't particularly positive, although to be fair it was little-changed in June. And expectations in this survey continue to be quite positive however.Indian goods exports in June were little-changed from a year ago at a modest US$35 bln, up +2.6% from the same month in 2023. Services exports rose +8.9% however. Services exports are at about the same value as for goods, in India.China's economy faltered in Q2-2024, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash even more stimulus.Despite expectations that CCP discipline would press China's Q2 GDP result to the party's target, in fact they published a much lower than expected growth result. The Chinese economy expanded +4.7% in Q2 from the same period in Q3, missing market forecasts of +5.1% and slowing from a +5.3% growth in Q1. It was the weakest yearly advance since Q1-2023, and comes amid their persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, a falling yuan, and trade frictions with the West. Irt also comes on the opening days of the CCP "Third Plenum", a huge set piece of Chinese policy making. Real reform is not anticipated however.Underscoring the real estate industry problems, China said new dwelling sales were -25% lower in June than a year ago. New house prices in 70 cities declined by -4.5% year-on-year in June, after a -3.9% equivalent fall in the previous month. It was the 12th straight month of retreat and the fastest pace since June 2015. Only one of those 70 cities recorded a year-on-year rise. None recorded rises for second hand home sales. Some cities are now recording -12% sales price falls.China also said June retail sales were up +2.0% from the same month a year ago, up +3.0% in you exclude car sales. At least this is better than inflation, so it records 'real' gains.And China reported that electricity production rose +2.3% in June from year-ago levels. It is crude, but this may be a better indicator of 'growth' than the official GDP data. Still, they claim industrial production rose +5.3% in June on the same basis. It seems unlikely unless they are making impressively large energy efficiency gains nationwide. (Maybe readers know how to reconcile these various data claims better than us? Please clarify for all in the comment section below.)The EU reported May industrial production levels in May, and those fell -2.5% from the same month a year ago, down -2.9% in the Euro Area..And perhaps we should note that the electrification of the world will require more copper than can be produced, according to a recent study. EV demand to meet 100% net zero by 2050 would need that. But if instead vehicle demand shifted to hybrids, there may be enough copper to achieve the goal.In Australia, all eyes seem to be on how a major union, the CFMEU, turned itself into a bikie gang complete with standover tactics. This isn't 'news' as such, just that it is now in public discussion in efforts to clean out their leadership and culture.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$12 from yesterday at US$2422/oz.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$81.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today sharply lower at 60.8 USc and down nearly -½c. Against the Aussie we are down at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.5 and down -40 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,314 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research makes the case against the popular notion that solid economic data would be bad for markets, and instead offers a rationale for why now, more than ever, is the time for investors to root for positive economic developments. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why good data … is good.It's Friday, June 28th at 2pm in London. One of the bigger investor debates of 2024 is whether stronger or weaker economic data is the preferred outcome for the market. This isn't a trick question. Post-COVID, a large spike of inflation led to the fastest pace of interest rate hikes by central banks in over forty years. And so there's been an idea that weaker economic data, which would reduce that inflationary pressure and make central banks more likely to cut interest rates, is actually the better outcome for the market. Those lower interest rates after all might be helpful for moving the market higher or tighter. And stronger economic data, in contrast, could lead to more inflationary pressure, and even more rate increases. And so by this logic, bad data is good … and good data, well, would be bad. This “bad is good” mindset was prominent in the Autumn of 2022 and again in September of 2023, as markets weakened on stronger data and fears that it could drive further rate hikes. We saw the idea return this year, amidst higher-than-expected inflation readings in the first quarter. But we currently think this logic is misplaced. For markets, and certainly for credit, we think those who are constructive, like ourselves, are very much rooting for solid economic data. For now, good is good. Our first argument here is general. Over a long swath of available data, the worst returns for credit have consistently overlapped with the worst economic growth. Hoping for weaker data is, historically speaking, playing with fire, raising the odds that such weakness isn't just a blip, and opens the door for much worse outcomes for both the economy and credit. But our second reason is more specific to right now. Central to this idea that bad data would be better for the market is the assumption that central banks would look at any poor data, change their tune and come to the market's aid by lowering interest rates quickly. I think recent events really challenge that sort of thinking. While the European central bank did lower interest rates earlier this month, it struck a pretty cautious tone about any further easing. And the Federal Reserve actually raised its expected level of inflation and projected rate path on the same day that consumer price inflation in the US came in much lower than expected. Both increased the risk that these central banks are being more backward looking, and will be slow to react to weaker economic data if it materialises. And so, we think, credit investors should be hoping for good data, which would avoid a scenario where backward-looking central banks are too slow to change their tune. I'd note that this is what Morgan Stanley's economists are forecasting, with expectations that growth is a little over 2 percent this year in the US and a little over 1 percent in the Euro Area for this year. We expect the economic data to hold up, and for that to be the better scenario for credit. If the data turns down, we may need to change our tune. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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The U.S. economic machine rolls on and the BoE and ECB are now likely to cut a slower pace. Hear from George Moran, Host and European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, U.S. Economist, and Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist, as they discuss their take on key U.S., Europe and Asia data out next week.   Chapters: (U.S. 03:20), (Euro Area 06:12), (Asia 11:51)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK and Euro Area Economist, Ruchir Sharma, US Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist as they discuss this week's US CPI surprise and market reaction, and share their take on key US, Europe and Asia data out next week. Chapters: (US 02:19), (Euro Area 06:21), (Asia 10:18)

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis published in our Global government bond activity chart pack.   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635297-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (02:11), we have core PCE inflation, house prices and consumer confidence. In Europe (07:00), it's the euro area consumer confidence, French, German and Spanish flash inflation and UK lending data. Then it's the latest from Asia (11:00), with the China PMIs, Indonesia, Japan CPI and the RBNZ meeting as well as global markets all to discuss.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:17), we have consumer confidence, PCE deflator and new/existing home sales. In Europe (04:20), it's the Euro Area consumer confidence, German IFO survey, UK CPI and retail sales. Then it's the latest from Asia (09:00), with BOJ meeting, Japan CPI as well as global markets all to discuss.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:58), we have the Fed Beige Book, core PCE inflation data, jobless claims and the November manufacturing ISM report. In Europe (06:24), the highlight will be flash inflation data for the euro area, UK lending data and euro area unemployment. Then it's the latest from Asia (09:29), with RBNZ, Bank of Thailand, and Bank of Korea meetings, Japan industrial production and unemployment data, India GDP, China PMI, and Australia and Indonesia CPI inflation data, as well as global markets all to discuss.

Greg Fuzesi joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent underpeformance in European growth and why we could see an improvement from here. Euro area growth has been stagnating over the past year and is running well below its estimated potential. One key factor behind this weakness is a striking turn towards caution on the part of European consumers evident in a household saving rate that has risen well above its pre-pandemic levels and stalling consumer spending. Our view that the Euro area avoids a recession––we look for a 0.5% GDP gain this quarter and 0.6% in 2024­­––is predicated on an improvement in consumer spending in response to falling inflation, continued real income gains, and healthy balance sheets. However, the risk is that this year's excessive consumer caution leads to a pullback in hiring.  While the manufacturing sector has likely done better than often claimed, it is hard to ignore the weakness in the latest PMIs, which we still believe are a reliable indicator of the underlying growth trend in the Euro area. As a result, risks are on the downside but the case for a consumer-led improvement remains in place.   This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548204-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524205-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524584-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Moody's strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland's election and India's inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (02:04), it would be NFP, JOLTs, factory orders and the trade balance if it wasn't for the US government shutdown. So instead, we're left with ISM manufacturing and services, ADP, weekly claims and Manheim used vehicles to drive price action. In Europe (15:43), it's Euro Area unemployment, retail sales and PPI, German factory orders, UK nationwide house prices and the BOE DMP data, as well as PMIs in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland. Then it's the latest from Asia (22:13), with the RBA, RBNZ and RBI meeting, China PMIs, Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand CPI, BOJ's summary of opinions, and labour data.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their recently published Global government bond activity chart pack outlining our latest views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds.   This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:56), we have PCE, durable goods and regional surveys from the Richmond, Chicago and Dallas Fed along with UoM inflation expectations. In Europe (06:03), it's Euro Area flash inflation, German unemployment and IFOs, UK GDP, mortgage approvals and nationwide house prices, Sweden PPI and economic tendency, Norges FX purchases and unemployment too. Then we discuss China PMIs (12:16), and the latest from Asia (23:33), with the BOT meeting, Caixin PMIs, BOJ minutes, Tokyo, Singapore, HK and Australia CPI, Japan and Australia retail sales, and NZ business confidence.

While import prices account for much of Europe's inflation, its outlook largely depends on how companies absorb wage gains as higher prices erode workers' purchasing power. IMF economist Frederik Toscani studies inflation and monetary policy in the Euro Area and is coauthor of a new paper that breaks inflation down into labor costs, import costs, taxes, and profits. In this podcast, Toscani says corporate profits account for 45 percent of price rises since the start of 2022.  Transcript: https://bit.ly/454o3Tk

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:35), we have consumer focused data with durable goods and consumer confidence but also PCE inflation. In Europe (05:36), it's Euro Area flash inflation, the ECB's Sintra and Sweden's Riksbank meeting along with German IFOs. Then it's the latest from Asia (12:00), with China PMIs, Tokyo CPI and Korea IP, as well as global markets all to discuss.

These are challenging times for central bankers, not only in the United States but worldwide. Inflation in the twenty countries in the Eurozone was 6.9 percent in March 2023, almost two percentage points higher than in the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responding to inflation in a similar fashion to the Federal Reserve, by raising interest rates. But there are concerns that these policy moves could cause a recession and threaten banks and financial institutions. Higher interest rates also make government debt more expensive to service, at a time when debt is already high in the wake of COVID. A person uniquely well qualified to discuss central bank policy in the Eurozone is Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank and a member of its executive board. On the eve of the 25th anniversary of the ECB, he joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the current challenges affecting the Euro Area, as well as the ECB's policies.

These are challenging times for central bankers, not only in the United States but worldwide. Inflation in the twenty countries in the Eurozone was 6.9 percent in March 2023, almost two percentage points higher than in the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responding to inflation in a similar fashion to the Federal Reserve, by raising interest rates. But there are concerns that these policy moves could cause a recession and threaten banks and financial institutions. Higher interest rates also make government debt more expensive to service, at a time when debt is already high in the wake of COVID. A person uniquely well qualified to discuss central bank policy in the Eurozone is Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank and a member of its executive board. On the eve of the 25th anniversary of the ECB, he joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the current challenges affecting the Euro Area, as well as the ECB's policies.

For currency-issuing governments, taxes for revenue are obsolete, so what *are* they for? Patricia & Christian talk to economist and author Dr Dirk Ehnts about the role of taxation in modern money systems, banking regulation, inflation, new eurozone fiscal rule proposals, and more.   Please help sustain this podcast! Patrons get early access to all episodes and patron-only episodes: https://www.patreon.com/MMTpodcast     Apply for Dr Dirk Ehnts' Modern Monetary Theory and European Macroeconomics course at Maastricht University (July 31st - August 4th): https://maastricht.dreamapply.com/courses/course/183-modern-monetary-theory-and-european-macroeconomics   Website of the 3rd International European MMT Conference (September 9-10: https://www.mmtconference.eu/     Order the Gower Initiative's “Modern Monetary Theory - Key Insights, Leading Thinkers”: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/modern-monetary-theory-9781802208085.html   Free tickets for the launch of “Modern Monetary Theory - Key Insights, Leading Thinkers”, in London on 20th April: https://gimms.org.uk/event/book-launch/     For an intro to MMT: Our first three episodes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742417 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318     All our episodes in chronological order: https://www.patreon.com/posts/43111643   All our episodes with Dirk Ehnts: https://www.patreon.com/posts/44467243 Dirk Ehnts' website: https://www.dirk-ehnts.de/ Dirk Ehnts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DEhnts     Relevant to this episode: For more on the interplay between commercial bank money (deposits) and central bank money (reserves), listen to our Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318 For more on the endogenous money view (the non-fringe, very mainstream view that bank loans create deposits, not the other way around), listen to: Episode 43 - Sam Levey: Understanding Endogenous Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/35073683 “Is Paper Money Just Paper Money? Experimentation and Variation in the Paper Monies Issued by the American Colonies from 1690 to 1775” by Farley Grubb: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2039611 “What Are Taxes For? The MMT Approach” by L. Randall Wray: https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/05/taxes-mmt-approach.html “Taxes for Revenue are Obsolete” by Beardsley Ruml https://realprogressives.org/taxes-for-revenue-are-obsolete/ “COVID-19 and its economic consequences for the Euro Area” by Dirk Ehnts and Michael Paetz: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40822-020-00159-w “Completing The Euro: The Euro Treasury And The Job Guarantee” by Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, Dirk H. Ehnts & Pavlina R. Tcherneva: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334226761_Completing_the_Euro_The_Euro_Treasury_and_the_Job_Guarantee More on Silicon Valley Bank and bank runs: Episode 162 - Warren Mosler: Anatomy Of A Bank Run: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80157783?pr=true Episode 163 - L. Randall Wray: Breaking Banks - The Fed's Magical Monetarist Thinking Strikes Again: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80479169?pr=true Episode 165 - Robert Hockett: Sparking An Industrial Renewal By Building Banks Better: https://www.patreon.com/posts/81084983?pr=true MMT founder Warren Mosler's Proposals for the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Banking System: https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2010/02/warren-moslers-proposals-for-treasury.html Details of the Finnish translation of Dirk Ehnts' “MMT essentials”: https://talousdemokratia.fi/kirjat/johdatus-moderniin-rahateoriaan/ Dirk talks about price-setting power being one of the causes of inflation, for Warren Mosler's view of the state as price-setter listen to this episode - Episode 123 - Warren Mosler: Understanding The Price Level And Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/59856379 Details of the next MMT Summer school in Poznań, Poland (September 5th-7th) will be available on this page when confirmed: https://fundacjalipinskiego.pl/wydarzenia/     Quick MMT reads: Warren's Mosler's MMT white paper: http://moslereconomics.com/mmt-white-paper/ Steven Hail's quick MMT explainer: https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-modern-monetary-theory-72095 Quick explanation of government debt and deficit: “Some Numbers Are Big. Let Me Help You Get Over It”: https://christreilly.com/2020/02/17/some-numbers-are-big-let-me-help-you-get-over-it/ For a short, non-technical, free ebook explaining MMT, download Warren Mosler's “7 Deadly Innocent Frauds Of Economic Policy” here: http://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf   Episodes on monetary operations: Episode 20 - Warren Mosler: The MMT Money Story (part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/28004824 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318 Episode 13 - Steven Hail: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Banking, But Were Afraid To Ask: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41790887 Episode 43 - Sam Levey: Understanding Endogenous Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/35073683 Episode 84 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46352183 Episode 86 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46865929    Episodes on inflation: Episode 7: Steven Hail: Inflation, Price Shocks and Other Misunderstandings: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41780508 Episode 65 - Phil Armstrong: Understanding Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/40672678 Episode 104 - John T Harvey: Inflation, Stagflation & Healing The Nation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/52207835 Episode 123 - Warren Mosler: Understanding The Price Level And Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/59856379 Episode 128 - L. Randall Wray & Yeva Nersisyan: What's Causing Accelerating Inflation? Pandemic Or Policy Response?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/63776558   More on government bonds (and “vigilantes”): Episode 30 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 1):https://www.patreon.com/posts/29621245 Episode 31 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/29829500 Episode 143 - Paul Sheard: What Is Quantitative Easing?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71589989?pr=true Episode 147 - Dirk Ehnts: Do Markets Control Our Politics?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-147-dirk-72906421 Episode 144 - Warren Mosler: The Natural Rate Of Interest Is Zero: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71966513 Episode 145 - John T Harvey: What Determines Currency Prices?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/72283811?pr=true   Our Job Guarantee episodes: Episode 4 - Fadhel Kaboub: What is the Job Guarantee?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742701 Episode 47 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Building Resilience - The Case For A Job Guarantee: https://www.patreon.com/posts/36034543 Episode 148 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Why The Job Guarantee Is Core To Modern Monetary Theory: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-148-why-73211346 Quick read: Pavlina Tcherneva's Job Guarantee FAQ page: https://pavlina-tcherneva.net/job-guarantee-faq/     MMT Events And Courses In 2023 More information about Professor Bill Mitchell's MMTed project (free public online courses in MMT) here: http://www.mmted.org/ Apply for Dr Dirk Ehnts' Modern Monetary Theory and European Macroeconomics course at Maastricht University (July 31st - August 4th) here: https://maastricht.dreamapply.com/courses/course/183-modern-monetary-theory-and-european-macroeconomics Details of Modern Money Lab's online graduate and postgraduate courses in MMT are here: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/ Details of the next MMT Summer school in Poznań, Poland (September 5th-7th) will be available on this page when confirmed: https://fundacjalipinskiego.pl/wydarzenia/ Website of the 3rd International European MMT Conference (September 9th-10th: https://www.mmtconference.eu/   MMT Academic Resources compiled by The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies: https://www.zotero.org/groups/2251544/mmt_academic_resources_-_compiled_by_the_gower_initiative_for_modern_money_studies   MMT scholarship compiled by New Economic Perspectives: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship     A list of MMT-informed campaigns and organisations worldwide: https://www.patreon.com/posts/47900757   We are working towards full transcripts, but in the meantime, closed captions for all episodes are available on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEp_nGVTuMfBun2wiG-c0Ew/videos   Show notes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/81501115?pr=true

In March 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, to unwind its portfolio of assets that resulted from its quantitative easing (QE) policy of the last decade.  Despite the scarce evidence on the effects of QT, it was never attempted in the Euro area. Most lessons can only be drawn from the 2017-19 experience in the United States. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Maria Demertzis invites Grégory Claeys and Megan Greene to discuss why the ECB has decided to go down the route of quantitative tightening and what it could mean for the future of the euro area. Relevant publication: Finding the right balance (sheet): quantitative tightening in the euro area, report by Grégory Claeys, requested by the ECON Committee, European Parliament

Welcoming Croatia to Breaking Banks Europe and the Euro Area! The 20th country to join the euro family is finally showcasing its financial services and technology ecosystem on our show, telling us the tales and the stories of its entrepreneurs - that are now dealing with both the glory of the bronze medal at the 2022 World Cup and the transition from their kuna to the euro currency. So much to unpack, and a full hour dedicated to it!Matteo Rizzi welcomes Luka Sučić and Nikola Škorić (Electrocoin) in this episode of #BBE and on "Money Motion - The only fintech conference you should attend" - March 9-10 in Zagreb. More: https://www.money-motion.eu/ Luka Sučić - Partner, Meta Change CapitalConnect: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lukasucic/ Nikola Škorić - Chief Executive Officer, Electrocoin d.o.o.Connect: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nskoric/https://electrocoin.hr/en

For the first time in over ten years, the euro area has a new member. Croatia is the latest country to join the monetary union, starting 1 January 2023. In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Jeromin Zettelmeyer sits down with Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank, to discuss the implications of Croatia's accession, the challenges they faced during the process, and the advantages they gain by now being a part of the monetary union. As the person shepherding Croatia's accession into the euro area, Boris Vujčić will discuss the impact euro membership will have on Croatia and give his thoughts on the past, present and future of the euro.

With 163 million employed workers, employment in the Euro Area has reached record-high levels in Q2 2022. Although hiring expectations are on a downward trend since March across all industries, the labor market is currently incredibly tight. Marion Devine, Associate Director for Insights on Human Capital, and Bettina Schaller, Senior Vice President Public Affairs for Adecco, and President of the World Employment Confederation discuss with Conference Board Ilaria Maselli how companies can improve the mental and financial wellbeing of workers, how demographic change is transforming the labor force, and how Gen-Z will change the way we work.

The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market showed significant deterioration last month. Still, according to Harry Melandri, we likely haven't seen “peak inflation,” and so central banks will keep hiking rates. Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about how the Fed might respond to core CPI readings over the next quarter and to express his skepticism over Russia's weaponization of its natural gas. “Do they need the money more than we need the gas?” We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why the Federal Reserve is “gonna slow down” and “take a pause.” Watch Stephan Clapham's full interview with Harris here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, causing global central banks to face a difficult choice; continue to raise rates at the risk of recession, or settle in for a long spell of elevated inflation.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives. Today, I'll be talking about the key challenges for central banks and particularly the European Central Bank. It's Thursday, June 23rd, at 3:30 p.m. in New York. Just about all conversations these days involve high inflation and monetary policy tightening. It is tough all over. Central banks all have to make harder and harder choices as inflation keeps surprising to the upside. Take the Fed. They hiked 75 basis points at their last meeting. That was 25 basis points more than was priced in just a week before the meeting. At the June European Central Bank meeting, President Lagarde also weighed in. She was clear about a 25 basis point hike in July and that the rate hike in September would be larger, presumably 50 basis points if the outlook for medium term inflation is still above target. Putting that simply, if the ECB does not lower its forecast for inflation in 2024, we should expect a 50 basis point hike in September. A lower inflation forecast faces long odds. Headline inflation in Europe will be pushed around by commodity prices. Consider that European inflation is much more non-core, that is food and energy, than it is core inflation. And for core inflation, the ECB typically looks to economic growth as the key driver, but with about a one year lag. So their forecast for 2024 inflation is going to depend on their forecast for 2023 growth. And it's just very hard to see what data we are going to get by September that's going to meaningfully lower their forecast for 2023 growth. So now the ECB has joined the ranks of central banks that are hiking more and more with the goal of slowing inflation. But they have to face the dilemma that I wrote a few pieces about back in January. At that point, I was discussing the Fed, but the same choice is there and it is stark— either cause a recession and bring inflation down in the near term or engineer a substantial slowdown, but one that is shy of a recession, and accept elevated inflation for years to come. You see, despite the typical lags of policy, if the ECB chose to engineer a recession right now, those effects would almost surely show through to growth by 2023, pulling down inflation in 2024. So why are they making this choice? On the most simple level, no central banker really wants to cause a recession if they can avoid it. And remember that euro area inflation is now heavily driven by food and energy prices. Those noncore prices are only barely related to Euro area activity. It would take a severe recession in Europe to meaningfully drive down noncore prices. And finally, reports are swirling of a new tool to ward off fragmentation in European markets. If we get a hard crash of the economy, that by itself could precipitate the market fragmentation that they're trying to avoid. So what happens next? The Governing Council is on a hiking cycle, but they want a soft landing. The problem is that we are more pessimistic than they are about Euro Area growth starting as soon as the second half of this year. With inflation currently high and their commitment to tightening to fight that inflation, we might not get the clear signals of a slowdown in the economy before it's too late. The ECB might think it is choosing the more benign path but if our forecasts are right, the risks of them hiking into a recession, even inadvertently, are clearly rising. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.