Podcasts about bca research

Interview recorded - 3rd of July, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of welcoming back Marko Papic. Marko is chief strategist at at BCA Research. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.During our conversation we spoke about Marko's current thoughts on the geopolitical landscape, his framework, trading geopolitics, current flashpoints and impact on the markets. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:33 - Geopolitical framework5:58 - Trading geopolitics13:45 - Trump & Putin16:52 - Geopolitics the past 10 years27:03 - Russia, Middle East & Taiwan40:21 - Impact on markets?Marko is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.At BCA, Marko leads the firm's premier service, BCA Access, that allows clients to unlock access to custom research and the vast expert network that BCA has cultivated over its 76 year history.Previously, Marko was a partner at an alternative asset management firm in California where he provided his investors and clients with controversial market calls, bold views, and around-the-clock research. He helped seed global macro hedge funds and curate several funds, across public and private markets. His work on incorporating geopolitics into the asset management industry has become part of the CAIA curriculum.Born in Belgrade, Serbia, he has lived in Iraq, Jordan, Switzerland, Canada, and the U.S. He has lectured at the top universities and you'll frequently see him in global news media.Marko Papic - X - https://x.com/Geo_papicResearch - https://www.bcaresearch.com/Geopolitical Alpha - https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/Geopolitical Cousins - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-cousins/id1802258017WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseasThumbnail image from - https://www.vecteezy.com/photo/55370299-abstract-digital-world-map-illuminated-with-red-lines-and-nodes-showcasing-global-connectivity

Marko Papic is the Chief Strategist at BCA Research. In this conversation we talk about what is happening in the market, why he is bullish, what is happening with the dollar, tariffs, bitcoin, gold, global conflict, and how all these different events impact your portfolio. =======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================Bitwise is one of the largest and fastest-growing crypto asset managers. As of December 31, 2021, the company managed over $1.3 billion across an expanding suite of investment solutions, which include the world's largest crypto index fund and other innovative products spanning Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, and crypto equities. Whether you're an individual, advisor, or institution, Bitwise provides intelligent access to crypto with your unique circumstances in mind. Visit www.bitwiseinvestments.com to learn more. Certain of the Bitwise investment products may be subject to the extreme risks associated with investing in crypto assets. Visit www.bitwiseinvestments.com/disclosures/ to learn more.=======================Maple Finance is where real money meets real yield. With over $1.5B managed, Maple offers secure lending, Bitcoin yield, and premium DeFi assets like syrupUSDC. Get started today at https://www.maple.finance !=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

BCA Research chief strategist Marko Papic says it's time to halve your U.S. exposure! America's post-pandemic out-performance, he argues, was “fueled by drunken-sailor spending”, and that fiscal sugar rush is ending. A Trump 2.0, Big Beautiful Budget deal that cuts entitlements could push bond yields lower, the dollar weaker, and global markets higher. In this fast-moving macro and geopolitcal tour with Maggie Lake, Papic lays out: Why Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are set to lead How a lower dollar reshapes every asset class Why tariffs are mostly negotiation theater Using gold and crypto to defend your cash, not replace equities Why Middle-East fireworks won't jolt oil, and how U.S. taxpayers quietly secure China's crude Stay for the second half, where Rocklinc's Jonathan Wellum drills into tangible-asset plays and portfolio tactics. Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/40AKuj7 Get To Know: Rocklinc's Jonathan Wellum https://youtu.be/ezMiX0FtZ7g Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Chapters:00:23 - Big Beautiful Bill: Market Impact? 03:03 - Are Deficit Hawks Still Relevant? 06:43 - Can the Bill Actually Jump-Start Growth? 09:11 - Why Pressure Powell If Fiscal Policy Matters More? 10:36 - Quiet Bond Market—What Does It Mean for Stocks? 13:09 - Trump's Tariff Threats: Bluff or Reality? 17:56 - Re-shoring vs Low Yields—Can Both Happen? 25:35 - Who Wins Most Under Trump's Agenda? 32:37 - Europe vs U.S.: Is the Growth Story Shifting? 36:28 - Middle East Tensions: Any Market Shock? 42:05 - China's Energy Weak Spot & Taiwan Risk 47:17 - Gold or Commodities—Best Dollar Hedge? 52:27 - Range-Bound Bonds: What About Equities? 56:55 - Global Value Hunt—Risk or Reward? 1:00:51 - Diversification Debate: Stocks vs ETFs 1:03:43 - Hard Assets Rising—Where's the Opportunity? Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Macroeconomics #GlobalMarkets #Geopolitics #Gold #Dollar #Bonds #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #China #Tariffs #USStocks #EmergingMarkets _______________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫伊以冲突与全球能源市场脆弱性分析，来自航向向东。当前伊以冲突已超越单纯军事对抗，演变为对全球能源供应链的战略性威胁。尽管冲突尚未直接导致霍尔木兹海峡全面封锁或伊朗石油产能崩溃，但其潜在破坏力已引发市场恐慌性溢价。根据BCA Research报告，未来六个月全球石油供应面临超过1000万桶/日重大冲击的概率高达55%，这将使油价波动幅度达到50%-100%。与历史石油危机相比，当前局势在供应中断规模上可能不及1973年或1979年，但在市场心理层面已形成类似1970年代的恐慌情绪，且叠加了地缘政治风险溢价和供应链脆弱性。面对这一挑战，OPEC+的备用产能和美国页岩油的增产潜力难以完全弥补潜在缺口，而国际能源署战略石油储备释放的协同效应有限，这使得全球能源市场正站在”如履薄冰”的关键节点。一、伊朗石油供应与霍尔木兹海峡的战略地位伊朗作为全球第七大石油生产国，其能源地位不容忽视。截至2025年4月，伊朗原油产量约为331万桶/日，位居OPEC第三大产油国。伊朗石油出口量在2025年5月约为166万桶/日，但冲突爆发后激增至233万桶/日，显示其短期产能未受显著影响。然而，伊朗石油出口高度依赖灰色渠道，约90%流向远东，其余出口至叙利亚、委内瑞拉等国家。这种非正规贸易网络面临美国制裁的持续压力，2024年灰色船队的出口量已从120万桶/日收缩至约80万桶/日。霍尔木兹海峡的战略地位更为关键。这条位于伊朗与阿曼之间的狭窄水道是全球能源运输的咽喉要道。每天约有2090万桶原油通过该海峡，占全球石油液体消费量的21%。其中，伊朗、沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特和卡塔尔等波斯湾国家的石油出口几乎全部依赖这一通道。更值得注意的是，通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输中有83%流向亚太地区，这意味着该地区对霍尔木兹海峡的依赖度最高。冲突爆发后，霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量已出现初步变化。联合海事信息中心(JMIC)数据显示，6月15日通过该海峡的货轮数量为111艘，较6月12日的116艘略有减少，降幅约4%。尽管关键石油基础设施尚未受到重大干扰，但航运公司已开始采取规避措施。BIMCO首席安全与安保官拉森表示：“越来越多的货船正选择远离红海和波斯湾，以及具有重要战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。”Frontline首席执行官拉斯·巴斯塔德也确认：“我们现已全面暂停签署进入波斯湾的新合约。”值得注意的是，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力虽存在，但其实施意愿受到多重制约。伊朗拥有2000-3000枚水雷和射程超过300公里的反舰导弹，理论上具备封锁海峡的能力。然而，伊朗经济严重依赖石油出口，封锁海峡将导致自身石油出口停滞，造成经济崩溃。此外，1988年美伊霍尔木兹海峡之战中，伊朗海军遭受重创，几艘主力军舰被美国海军编队击沉或击伤，几乎全军覆没。这一历史教训使伊朗对封锁海峡的军事后果保持警惕。二、当前局势与历史石油危机的对比分析伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险与历史上三次重大石油危机有相似之处，但也存在显著差异。1973年石油危机由OPEC对以色列实施禁运引发，全球供应减少约750万桶/日，油价从13美元/桶飙升至54美元/桶，持续时间约1年。1979年石油危机由伊朗伊斯兰革命引发，伊朗产量从580万桶/日骤降至100万桶/日，叠加两伊战争，全球供应缺口扩大至约600万桶/日，油价从13美元/桶飙升至35美元/桶，持续约2年。1990年海湾战争由伊拉克入侵科威特引发，导致两国约400万桶/日的供应中断，油价从21美元/桶涨至46美元/桶，持续9个月。当前局势与历史危机的相似性主要体现在：冲突直接威胁能源基础设施，引发市场恐慌性溢价；关键产油国产量可能因冲突而下降；地缘政治风险溢价推高油价。例如，伊朗已威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这与1973年OPEC禁运和1979年伊朗革命时的威胁相似。同时，以色列对伊朗能源设施的打击可能导致伊朗石油产量下降，与历史上产油国产能崩溃的模式相似。然而，当前局势与历史危机也存在显著差异：供应中断规模与范围、市场机制变化、地缘政治参与方、经济背景差异。具体而言：当前局势最显著的差异在于供应中断规模与范围。伊朗当前出口量仅占全球4%，即使完全中断，缺口也仅为170万桶/日，远小于历史危机中的中断规模。此外，当前冲突未引发产油国集体行动，且主要集中在伊朗与以色列之间，未直接波及沙特等核心产油国。三、全球能源市场应对供应中断的能力评估面对潜在的石油供应中断，全球能源市场拥有多层次的应对机制，但其有效性受到多重制约。OPEC+的备用产能是市场的主要缓冲力量，但根据高盛2025年6月报告，当前OPEC+实际产能利用率已达89.7%，其中沙特、阿联酋等核心产油国的剩余产能仅存550万桶/日，接近历史低位。即使沙特理论上具备250万桶/日的增产空间，阿联酋宣称485万桶/日的最大生产能力，但实际增产能力受到长期减产政策和投资不足的限制。例如，沙特近年来将资源转向其他项目，停止扩充备用产能，这使其在应对突发危机时的灵活性大打折扣。美国页岩油是另一个重要的供应缓冲。截至2025年7月，美国页岩油产量预计将达到1320万桶/日，创历史新高。然而，页岩油的增产潜力受到钻井数和完井周期的制约。2025年贝克休斯活跃石油钻机数量为394台，尽管与2024年相比增加了181台，但仍处于历史较低水平。钻机数量上升通常滞后于原油价格上涨约4-6个月，这意味着即使油价飙升，页岩油企业也需要时间才能实现产量增长。此外，页岩油产量的提升更多是依靠DUC，而当前DUC库存已降至2013年以来的最低水平，这进一步限制了页岩油的增产能力。国际能源署战略石油储备是应对短期供应中断的重要工具。摩根大通分析师指出：“全球国家极不可能'协同释放战略石油储备'。”即使在2022年俄乌冲突期间，除美国外的IEA成员国也仅同意释放6000万桶石油储备，远低于美国的1.8亿桶。此外，战略石油储备的释放存在时间滞后，从宣布到实际投放市场通常需要2周以上的时间，这使得储备释放难以应对突发的供应中断。非OPEC产油国的产能释放也是市场关注的焦点。巴西深海油田、圭亚那陆上区块的新增产能持续释放，2025年非OPEC国家原油产量增速预计达2.3%。然而，这些新增产能主要集中在特定区域，且运输路线受限，无法完全替代霍尔木兹海峡的运输量。例如，巴西石油需要通过海运抵达亚洲市场，而圭亚那石油则主要面向美国市场。四、价格波动幅度预测与市场心理分析基于当前局势和历史经验，重大供应冲击将导致油价波动幅度达到50%-100%，远超当前市场预期。这一预测基于三个关键因素：潜在供应中断规模、市场恐慌溢价、以及备用产能释放的滞后性。首先，潜在供应中断规模可能远超当前实际影响。伊朗已威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡，若实施将导致每天约2000万桶的石油运输中断。虽然伊朗不太可能全面封锁海峡，但”灰色干扰”手段可能导致运输成本上升和风险溢价增加。此外，以色列已打击伊朗的炼油厂、储油设施和天然气加工厂，若冲突升级，可能进一步破坏伊朗的能源基础设施，导致产量下降。其次，市场恐慌溢价已显著上升。布伦特原油期货价格在6月13日袭击事件后单日暴涨13%，创俄乌冲突以来最高涨幅。这一涨幅远超实际供应中断的影响，主要源于市场对潜在供应风险的恐慌性预期。恐慌溢价的持续存在将使油价波动幅度扩大，即使供应中断规模有限，也可能引发50%-100%的价格波动。再者，备用产能释放的滞后性将加剧价格波动。OPEC+的备用产能和美国页岩油的增产潜力需要3-6个月才能完全释放，而供应中断可能在短期内发生，这种时间差将导致油价在短期内大幅波动。此外，战略石油储备的释放也存在时间滞后，从宣布到实际投放市场通常需要2周以上的时间，这使得储备释放难以应对突发的供应中断。与历史石油危机相比，当前市场对价格波动的承受能力有所增强，但仍有脆弱性。1973年油价上涨315%和1979年上涨169%均导致全球经济衰退，而当前全球经济对高油价的承受能力因能源结构多元化而增强。例如，美国页岩油产量的大幅增长使其对中东石油的依赖度显著下降，从2010年的60%降至2025年的30%以下。此外，远东等新兴经济体在能源消费结构上更加多元化，减少了对单一能源的依赖。然而，当前全球经济仍面临通胀压力，高油价将进一步加剧这一压力，对经济复苏构成挑战。五、供应链多元化与地缘政治风险溢价伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险凸显了全球能源供应链的脆弱性，同时也加速了供应链多元化进程。供应链多元化已成为应对地缘政治风险的主要策略，包括运输路线多元化、供应来源多元化和能源消费结构多元化。运输路线多元化方面，油轮运费因绕行好望角单日飙升24%，VLCC日均收益达5.1万美元。这种运费上涨反映了市场对霍尔木兹海峡安全风险的担忧，以及对替代运输路线的迫切需求。然而，绕行路线无法完全替代霍尔木兹海峡的运输量，因为绕行增加了运输时间和成本，且需要更多的油轮运力。例如，绕行好望角的运输时间比经霍尔木兹海峡长30%-40%，这使得替代运输路线的经济性受到挑战。供应来源多元化方面，远东等主要进口国已开始减少对伊朗石油的依赖。然而，这种多元化进程仍面临挑战，因为沙特等国的石油出口也依赖霍尔木兹海峡，且其备用产能有限。例如，沙特2025年的备用产能约为190万桶/日，远低于其2020年疫情前的250万桶/日水平。地缘政治风险溢价已成为油价的重要组成部分。高盛分析指出，当前布伦特原油期货价格中的地缘政治风险溢价约为10美元/桶，主要源于中东局势的不确定性。这一溢价已部分反映了市场对潜在供应中断的担忧，但若冲突升级，溢价可能进一步上升。例如，若伊朗采取极端措施，如关闭霍尔木兹海峡或袭击地区石油基础设施，油价可能飙升至每桶超过94美元，市场反应将极为剧烈。六、全球能源市场前景面对伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险，全球能源市场前景复杂多变，需要采取多层次的应对策略。短期来看，市场将维持”乱而不战”的紧张态势，油价波动性将显著增加。布伦特原油价格可能在75-80美元/桶区间波动，较当前水平存在6.5%-10%的上行空间。这种波动性将主要由地缘政治风险溢价驱动，而非实际供应中断。中长期来看，能源市场将经历结构性调整。一方面，OPEC+的备用产能有限且高度集中于沙特和阿联酋，这使得全球市场在面对伊朗危机时显得脆弱不堪。高盛预测，OPEC+将于2025年8月正式结束持续14个月的增产周期，届时全球原油市场供需格局可能迎来结构性调整。另一方面，美国页岩油、巴西深海油田等非OPEC产能的持续释放将为市场提供一定缓冲，但其增产潜力受到钻井数和完井周期的制约。七、结论与展望若冲突升级导致伊朗石油产能大幅下降或霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻，全球能源市场将面临严峻考验。面对这一挑战，各国需采取多层次的应对策略，包括加强战略石油储备管理、推动能源消费结构多元化、加强国际能源合作等。能源转型将是长期应对地缘政治风险的关键，但短期内仍需依赖传统石油供应。因此，维护中东地区的能源安全稳定对全球经济发展至关重要。未来六个月，伊以冲突的走向将直接影响全球能源市场。BCA Research预测的三种情景各有不同的影响路径。无论哪种情景，全球能源市场都将面临不同程度的供应中断风险，油价波动幅度可能达到50%-100%，这将对全球经济复苏构成挑战。因此，各国需保持警惕，及时调整能源政策，以应对可能的能源危机。

The huge political and economic shifts taking place amid US President Donald Trump's global trade war, turmoil in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is putting geopolitical risk front and center of investment decisions. JPMorgan, for instance, has just launched a Center for Geopolitics, as companies become more reluctant to simply rely on business models and financial experience.Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, an independent research group founded in 1949, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to give his take on the consequences of such significant global changes and how investors can best navigate these turbulent and uncertain times.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“The U.S. dollar is likely to go down 25 to 50% over the next five years,” says Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research. He tells Daniela Cambone that the driving force behind this decline is less about the loss of reserve currency status and more about fading U.S. economic outperformance. Papic also points out that Trump's tax cuts bill “does not add to growth in any way, shape, or form” and warns, “Expectations of U.S. growth are overstated, and that means the dollar is way too expensive.”He further argues that rate cuts are becoming ineffective, as the long end of the yield curve remains unresponsive. “Everyone borrows at the long end of the curve — not the short end. So if the long end doesn't fall, rate cuts don't matter.” What matters now, he stresses, is fiscal and trade policy — not monetary policy.Papic's advice to investors: “Diversify out of the dollar — diversify out of the U.S.” Watch the full video to learn more.✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload the Ultimate Decision-Making Guide on Gold & Silver plus Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

Trump’s policies have slowed the economy, making a downturn more likely. But Peter Berezin, chief global investment strategist at BCA Research, says the nation’s yawning deficit is a bigger threat. He joins this week to talk recession odds and strategies for investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bond yields fall after softer ADP employment data, setting the stage for Friday's jobs report. Our Rick Santelli breaks down the move, with Mike Santoli offering his take on what it means for markets. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge weighs in on jobs, the Fed, and the rate outlook. Earnings from Five Below, PVH, and MongoDB take center stage. Marko Papic of BCA Research discusses the implications of an expected Trump-Xi call on U.S.-China trade. Jim Paulsen joins to discuss the wave of strategists lifting their S&P 500 targets. Brent Thill of Jefferies and Gil Luria of DA Davidson go head-to-head in a CoreWeave valuation debate. 

On a pivotal day for Wall Street, Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI joins to break down what he's buying as the market rallies on trade talk optimism with China. Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, weighs in the geopolitical environment, followed by NEC Director Kevin Hassett on how negotiations are going with China and other countries, as well as budget talks and President Trump's executive order on pharma.Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, analyzes the afternoon rally. 

Europe faces an existential crisis. Long an innovation, technology and manufacturing hub, its greatest companies and wider industries have been hit hard by competition from American tech giants like Google and Chinese manufacturing powerhouses like BYD. Multiple prominent reports have circulated about how the European Union can rapidly respond before its economy struggles even more (this week, Germany announced that its economy will not grow in 2025, for the third year in a row).Today, Marko Papic makes the case for Europe — even against the tough competition. He's a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research and a delightful guest with a panoramic perspective on the world's current geopolitics, past and future economic history and the potential for technology to upend the global order.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, Marko talks about why he's bullish on Europe, counters the idea that America is more deregulated, discusses why Europe needs a 28th “digital state” and why national champions are critical for success, describes how Europe can balance between the U.S. and China and finally, offers why he is optimistic that disruptions globally will actually accelerate innovation rather than slow it down.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

The Corporate Chat Podcast team is thrilled to present a brand-new episode featuring Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist, Europe at BCA Research. This episode, hosted by Émile Journet and Cédrik Nadeau, offers an insightful conversation examining early career experiences and the broader geopolitical and economic forces impacting Europe.A McGill graduate, Mr. Savary has built an impressive career in global macroeconomic research. In this episode, we explore his professional journey, his advice for current students, and his outlook on the key challenges and opportunities facing European markets today.This conversation offers valuable insights into Europe's role within today's rapidly evolving global landscape - making it a must-listen for anyone seeking to better understand current economic dynamics.

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I sit down with Marko Papic of BCA Research to explore the intricate interplay between geopolitics and the global economy. Marko, a good friend and seasoned geopolitical strategist, walks us through his invaluable framework for understanding the preferences and constraints of policymakers—a critical lens for navigating today's rapidly shifting dynamics—before we dive into trade wars and regional integration in a conversation which delves into how political decisions are shaping financial markets and economic opportunities around the world. Also discussed the Trump administration's use of tariffs and trade wars, which Marko analyzes through the prism of U.S. constraints compared to other nations, and Europe's unique position to capitalize on current geopolitical shifts, particularly through deeper integration and increased investment prospects. Meanwhile, Marko explains why China faces significant challenges in stimulating domestic demand while grappling with risks such as potential conflict over Taiwan. Marko's insights provide an invaluable guide to understanding the complexities of today's geopolitical landscape and their far-reaching implications for economies and markets worldwide. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

China strikes back at the U.S. with 125% tariffs on goods – CNBC's Eunice Yoon reports on the latest. BCA Research's Marko Papic says it's dangerous to get overly bearish in a policy-induced recession. Plus, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says the market trends show that investors are increasingly moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest while President Trump's tariff tensions continue to rise. Meanwhile, in the nation's capital, the House paves the way for Trump's “big, beautiful bill,” and over in Hollywood, John Malone gives up his seat on the Warner Bros. Board of Directors to become Chair Emeritus. Neel Kashkari - 15:48Marko Papic - 43:17 In this episode: Neel Kashkari, @neelkashkariEunice Yoon, @onlyyoontvMarko Papic, @Geo_papicBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinZach Vallese, @zachvallese

Are Trump's dramatic tariffs simply a negotiation tactic rather than an intentional trade war? Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Maggie Lake for a critical conversation explaining why markets have misunderstood Trump's tariff policy from the beginning and what deeper macroeconomic risks investors should actually be focused on. Key Topics: How Trump has used extreme tariff threats as leverage, and why markets repeatedly fall for it What the rise of a multipolar world means for global markets and U.S. economic power The hidden but urgent risk investors are overlooking: a recession where bond yields stay high, undermining traditional market safety nets Why U.S. market outperformance is coming to an end as fiscal stimulus runs dry, exposing vulnerabilities investors aren't ready for Marko's bold call: why the U.S. dollar is at risk of a 30% decline, and how investors should reposition globally If today's chaotic headlines have you concerned about markets, geopolitics, or the next big risk for your investments, this conversation is essential viewing. Chapters: 0:48 - Trump's Tariff Bombshell: Bluff or Battle Plan? 9:14 - Who Really Has the Upper Hand in a Trade War? 18:24 - Inside Trump's Mind: What's the Endgame on Tariffs? 24:32 - The True Meaning of a Multipolar World 30:11 - Investors Beware: Navigating a New Multipolar World 34:28 - Economic Shock Therapy: Trump's Dangerous Gamble 35:56 - Can the U.S. Treasury Market Survive Trump's Policies? 40:16 - Fiscal Time Bomb: When Will Markets Revolt? 49:16 - Hunting for Value: Is It Time to Bet on Emerging Markets? 52:24 - Danger Ahead: The Biggest Risk No One Sees Coming Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4ide1pl Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Subscribe to Marko and Jacob Shapiro's podcast, Geopolitical Cousins, here: https://podcasts.apple.com/za/podcast/geopolitical-cousins/id1802258017 Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Trump #Tariffs #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy #Macro #Markets #Dollar #Recession #InterestRates #BondMarket #MarkoPapic ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wir sehen auf breiter Front zunehmende Nervosität. Goldman Sachs senkt die Jahresendziele für den S&P 500 und geht davon aus, dass der Index in den nächsten drei Monaten bis auf 5300 sinken wird. Gleichzeitig werden die Inflationsziele angehoben, und die Erwartungen für die Wirtschaft gesenkt. Man geht davon aus, dass die reziproken Zölle die Wall Street am Mittwoch negativ überraschen werden. Das Risiko einer Rezession wird von 20% auf 35% angehoben. Wir sehen auch bei BCA Research, dass die Erwartungen für eine Stagflation angehoben werden. Hier betont man, dass der US-Aktienmarkt auf Sicht der mindestens nächsten 12 Monate unterdurchschnittlich performen dürfte. Neben der Verunsicherung durch die Zölle, dürfte die KI-Bubble weiterhin Luft ablassen und die Wall Street belasten Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++Probier Seeberger Snacks – deine natürliche Energiequelle. Mit dem Code wallstreet könnt ihr euch jetzt 20% Rabatt im Seeberger Onlineshop sichern: https://www.seeberger.de/?utm_campaign=podcast-q1&utm_medium=nativead&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=wallstreet +++ +++Erhalte einen exklusiven 15% Rabatt auf Saily eSIM Datentarife! Lade die Saily-App herunter und benutze den Code wallstreet beim Bezahlen: https://saily.com/wallstreet +++ +++EXKLUSIVER NordVPN Deal ➼ https://nordvpn.com/Wallstreet Jetzt risikofrei testen mit einer 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie!+++ +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html

Wir sehen auf breiter Front zunehmende Nervosität. Goldman Sachs senkt die Jahresendziele für den S&P 500 und geht davon aus, dass der Index in den nächsten drei Monaten bis auf 5300 sinken wird. Gleichzeitig werden die Inflationsziele angehoben, und die Erwartungen für die Wirtschaft gesenkt. Man geht davon aus, dass die reziproken Zölle die Wall Street am Mittwoch negativ überraschen werden. Das Risiko einer Rezession wird von 20% auf 35% angehoben. Wir sehen auch bei BCA Research, dass die Erwartungen für eine Stagflation angehoben werden. Hier betont man, dass der US-Aktienmarkt auf Sicht der mindestens nächsten 12 Monate unterdurchschnittlich performen dürfte. Neben der Verunsicherung durch die Zölle, dürfte die KI-Bubble weiterhin Luft ablassen und die Wall Street belasten. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • Facebook: http://fal.cn/SQfacebook • Twitter: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Jon and Morgan lead a packed hour, covering today's roller-coaster ride in the market from every angle. We talk tariff concerns with BCA Research's Marko Papic and former Walmart US CEO Bill Simon analyzinf the geopolitical and retail implications. Bespoke's Paul Hickey and JPMorgan's Phil Camporeale assess broader market moves. Earnings coverage includes Ross Stores, Nordstrom, CrowdStrike, and Flutter, plus Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston on the macro picture and Joel Fishbein on cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike.

Marko Papic, macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, goes into great depth of the various hot beds around the world and how things will evolve. WAIVER & DISCLAIMERIf you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of February, 2025, the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes.

Did you know that you can pay someone to give you advice on what to bet on? They can look at historical data like rushing and passing yards, touchdowns, and more—but so can we. Honestly, historical data can only tell us so much. If you bet on a game, you're really making a lucky guess. Is it really so different with the stock market? When it comes to predictions—whether for the Super Bowl or the S&P 500—there's a lot of uncertainty. So, let's break down how predictions are made and whether or not they should guide our investment decisions. [bctt tweet="Predictions are everywhere—whether for the Super Bowl or the stock market. But how reliable are they? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we explore the dangers of betting on expert predictions and why diversification is key for your portfolio." username=""] Outline of This Episode [1:13] The Super Bowl: What you can bet on [2:30] Why are we trusting betting experts? [7:50] Expert predictions for 2025 [11:32] Reviewing predictions from 2024 [18:06] How do we build a portfolio? Expert predictions for 2025 Most of the top analysts—Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, and others—are bullish, predicting that the S&P 500 will rise in 2025. The consensus seems to suggest that the market will average a 10% return, which has been the long-term norm. Oppenheimer Asset Management stands out with an optimistic prediction of 18.4%, implying that 2025 could be a great year for the market. However, these predictions come with a significant caveat—the stock market, especially the S&P 500, is notoriously volatile. We've seen massive swings in the past, from a 38% drop in 2008 during the Great Recession to a 25% rise in 2024. BCA Research, on the other hand, predicts a 25.8% drop, highlighting just how different expert opinions can be. This stark difference—43% apart between two top analysts—raises an important question: if the experts can't agree, how reliable are their predictions? It's a reminder that while these predictions may be based on data, the unpredictability of the market remains ever-present. [bctt tweet="Experts predict the future, but how often are they right? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we dive into the unpredictability of stock market forecasts and share why building a diversified portfolio is your best bet for long-term success." username=""] Reviewing predictions from 2024 Did the experts hit the mark last year? The S&P 500 went up around 25% (with dividends) and 23.3% without dividends. Oppenheimer, the most bullish of the experts, predicted a modest 8% increase, but the market ended up being nearly three times better than that! Many other firms—Goldman Sachs, BMO, Bank of America—also predicted positive returns, but the actual outcome was far beyond their expectations. In a striking example, some analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would finish the year with negative returns—forecasts that couldn't have been further from reality. This discrepancy illustrates an important point: even the most well-educated and experienced analysts can be drastically wrong. It shows that predictions are based on what experts know at the time, but they can't account for the countless variables that influence market behavior throughout the year, such as political changes, economic developments, and unforeseen global events. How do financial stewards build a portfolio? The answer is diversification. Family stewards—those who manage wealth and invest for future generations—should focus on creating a well-rounded portfolio that can weather any storm. Rather than betting on predictions, diversify your investments across a wide range of asset classes: large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international investments, emerging markets, real estate, and bonds. By spreading your...

In this episode, Marko Papic, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategist at BCA Research, explores the geopolitical and macroeconomic issues likely to impact the markets under the coming years. Marko explains his approach to geopolitics and why material constraints often outweigh policymakers' preferences. Marko also discusses the implications of US fiscal policy, tariffs, and the geopolitical risks posed by China and Iran under the Trump administration.

Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt lead the hour with insights from Bespoke's Paul Hickey and U.S. Bank's Eric Freedman on the markets, plus Steve Liesman breaks down the latest PPI and CPI data. Bernstein's Courtney Breen provides an update on Eli Lilly's performance after a guidance cut sunk the stock. Marko Papic from BCA Research discusses tariffs and the TikTok debate, while Stephen Yalof, Tanger CEO, explores the evolving retail and mall landscape. David George from Baird dives into bank earnings and JPMorgan developments, and Contessa Brewer reports on the latest fire risks. Plus, key takeaways from ICR with On Holding co-CEOs and Planet Fitness CEO Colleen Keating in her first interview in the role, and an update on Firefly in "Manifest Space."

Discover why Doug Peta, the Chief US Investment Strategist at BCA Research, believes it's time to rethink your equity exposure. Unpack the complexities of the business cycle as Doug shares his insights on transitioning from economic expansion to a potential recession. We explore the impact of the Federal Reserve's and Congress's policies over the past four years and why understanding these might be crucial for your investment decisions. If you're curious about how the current economic landscape could affect your portfolio, this conversation promises valuable perspectives on asset allocation timing and the importance of a cautious approach in uncertain times.Shift your attention to the labor market as we discuss critical indicators shaping the economic outlook. From the JOLTS report to job openings, hires, and quits rates, we analyze the signals suggesting a decelerating labor market and what this means for compensation and consumption trends. As we dissect the role of tax cuts and after-tax compensation, you'll gain a comprehensive understanding of how these elements interplay within the broader economic picture. This segment is essential for anyone looking to grasp the factors that could influence future U.S. consumption patterns.Finally, we scrutinize the dynamics of the stock market and defensive investment strategies. Consider why passive investment flows might have made the S&P 500 a coincident rather than a leading indicator, and what that means for high valuations and earnings expectations. Explore the resilience of credit spreads, inflation outlooks, and the global economic impact of China. With insights into defensive strategies and the potential for future market shifts, this episode equips you with the knowledge to navigate potential economic and market disruptions with confidence.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Sign up at LearnCorporate.com and take control of your career and finances. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

Guest: Marko Papic Welcome to the Porter & Co. Black Label Podcast – a provocative, no-holds-barred space where Porter and Aaron talk with a series of very special guests about markets, politics, and life. In this episode, the very special guest is Marko Papic – Chief Strategist of BCA Research… the essential source of macroeconomic research. You can learn more about Marko here. Show highlights include: The huge U.S. debt burden… Europe's economic model…  The current outlook for Latin America… The dollar, bonds, and global finance… Porter's top tweets… The big bank in big trouble… Click here to watch Breaking Point 2024… Porter's wish for his fellow Americans… And much, much more… Click here to listen to the full podcast now. And grab your free reports at https://porterspodcast.com. And be sure to follow us on X at https://twitter.com/Porter_and_Co and https://twitter.com/porterstansb. To your success, Porter & Co.  

Today's guest is Marko Papic, Marko leads BCA Research's BCA Access and developed GeoMacro Research, the first discretionary macro-geopolitical investment strategy in finance. He connects clients with a broad expert network and custom research, having founded BCA's Geopolitical Strategy service. His book, Geopolitical Alpha, presents a framework for predicting investment outcomes. Previously, Marko was a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, advising institutional investors. His work is included in the CAIA curriculum and The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary Geopolitics. Starting as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, he has lectured at Stanford and Georgetown. Marko holds advanced degrees from the University of Texas and UBC.   This is the second time we have had the privilege of hosting Marko, almost 4 years ago on the button. Marko is no doubt one of our favorite guests in the history of this podcast.   In this episode, we cover the U.S. election, who will win and what America's foreign policy will look like for Trump or Harris. We discuss the powerful American consumer driven economy, how to position your portfolio, the untapped equity in American's homes, and getting us current on the last 4 years since the last time Marko joined us.   Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Founder, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Chris Cannon (CIO/Principal, FirsTrust)   Links: https://www.bcaresearch.com https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/report/gmac/what-geomacro/100026   Please enjoy the episode.  

MRKT Matrix - Thursday, October 3rd S&P 500 falls on oil spike as rough October continues (CNBC) U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran (CNBC) A recession is imminent and favored tech stocks set to crater like the ‘Nifty Fifty' did, BCA Research says (CNBC) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says demand for next-generation Blackwell AI chip is ‘insane' (CNBC) OpenAI asks investors to avoid five AI startups including Sutskever's SSI, sources say (Reuters) Apple's A.I. Is Landing Soon on iPhones. Here's What It's Like. (NYT) Amazon to increase number of advertisements on Prime Video (FT) Uber and Lyft drivers use Teslas as makeshift robotaxis, raising safety concerns (Reuters) Warren Buffett Sells $338 Million of BofA Stock as Spree Slows (Bloomberg) Lilly Weight-Loss Drug Copycats Dealt Blow as Shortage Ends (Bloomberg) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Peter Berezin is here today to discuss the global meltdown that is coming! The chief strategist at BCA Research discusses the potential for an upcoming U.S. recession. Peter predicts that a recession could lead to a significant market crash, even without deep economic downturns, much like the 2001 recession. He also touches on inflation, budget deficits, and the government's ability to counteract economic downturns.  Today we discuss...  Predictions of a US recession to start later this year or early next year, contradicting the expectation of a soft landing. Economic insulation from job openings and excess pandemic savings is depleting, cooling the economy. Real estate markets, including commercial, residential, and single-family homes, look worrying due to high vacancy rates and rising delinquency. Small regional banks could face problems due to their exposure to commercial real estate, potentially leading to a steady stream of bad news. During a recession, Berezin expects opportunities to buy solid companies at a discount, particularly in tech and healthcare. Inflation is expected to stay under control over the next 12 months due to a weakening economy, falling job openings, and lower wage growth. Peter explains that printing money to finance fiscal deficits can be inflationary, particularly when unemployment rises and fiscal spending increases. The large US budget deficit is troubling, especially as counter-cyclical fiscal policy might be limited during future economic downturns. Concern about the continued printing of money in bad times, potentially leading to economic imbalances like income inequality. Raising taxes is suggested as a possible path forward, though political challenges could impede this. Tax increases are likely if certain tax cuts expire, with potential cuts to defense or social spending as other budget-balancing measures. Concerns about worsening fiscal scenarios prompt the idea of hedging with TIPS and gold. Global markets, especially outside the U.S., are seen as more attractive due to valuation gaps, with emerging markets managing inflation better recently. Commodities, particularly metals, are seen as benefiting from the green energy transition, while oil demand may decrease. Gold is positioned as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and long-term inflation, though rising bond yields have made it less attractive recently. Bitcoin is unlikely to become a central bank asset due to its anonymity and governments' need to monitor and tax transactions. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-meltdown-peter-berezin-646 Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter's call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?07:29 - Signs of weakness?09:31 - The key indicators of weakness12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?15:26 - Assessing the savings rate17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?22:00 - Challenges in the banking system24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal...

This week Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Marko Papic. They discuss Marko's recent change to BCA Research, how he incorporates geopolitics into his investment framework and why everyone is doing it backwards. Check Out BCA Research: https://www.bcaresearch.com Follow Marko on X: https://www.x.com/geo_papic Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Is the allure of AI stocks overshadowing the perilous reality of small-cap struggles? Join us in this episode as we dissect the intricate landscape of the current stock market with Peter Berezin from BCA Research. We promise an in-depth analysis of the bifurcated performance between thriving large-cap AI-driven stocks and the underperforming small-cap sector. Learn how key economic factors like the ongoing slowdown, diminishing job openings, and the depletion of pandemic savings are contributing to this divergence. Discover Peter's insights on the prolonged and variable impacts of monetary policy and how the erosion of prior economic insulation is shaping market dynamics. We'll delve into the predictive power of construction job losses and the decline in multi-family housing starts as early indicators of a potential recession. This episode shines a light on how smaller companies, reliant on bank financing and cyclical businesses, face unique challenges that could amplify their struggles in a looming recession. Plus, we critically examine the potential overvaluation of large language models and AI profitability, and whether they can replicate the success of social networks.We also tackle broader market concerns and sector strategies, drawing parallels between the UK's fiscal turmoil and the current risks facing the US economy. With a 7% budget deficit and low unemployment, we scrutinize the viability of the US dollar during a recession. Can China's economic recovery or a global manufacturing resurgence mitigate these risks? Peter shares thought-provoking perspectives on fiscal policy in an election year, including potential tax hikes and tariffs. Finally, find out where you can follow Peter's work and insights, and explore the long-standing reputation of BCA Research.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the Show.

Matt Gertken, chief strategist for global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says investors should be factoring in geopolitics and the upcoming U.S. election now, because current uncertainty could cause a downturn "soon, at any time." But once the election is sorted out, whoever wins — and no matter the policies they pursue — is facing the inevitabilities of the economic cycle. Gertken is clear that he doesn't see the kind of economic imbalances that would cause a market cataclysm akin to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but troubles in China over politics there — plus deflation and a troubled housing market — could drag the U.S. and other international economies into a bigger tailspin. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the infrastructure space with his ETF of the Week, and Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the upcoming Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now.

Noe som ikke har skjedd noensinne i verdenshistorien (kanskje), har skjedd de siste årene. USAs økonomi er snudd på hodet på en unik måte. Hvordan dette fungerer og hva som er viktig for å forstå tingenes tilstand blir forklart til Tid er penger av sjefsstrateg Dhaval Joshi i BCA Research.Dette intervjuet ble første gang publisert i april i år. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Congress has passed a third stopgap spending bill in the past four months to keep the U.S. government open. BCA Research's Matt Gerken explains. Plus, pre-orders for the Apple Vision Pro begin today. Albion Financial Group's Jason Ware and CNET's Scott Stein discuss. And, artificial intelligence has been dominating conversations at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Elastic CEO Ashutosh Kulkarni describes what his company is seeing.

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about the outlook for cross-strait tensions and US-China relations following the recent election in Taiwan. 

Garry Evans, chief asset allocation strategist at BCA Research, expects a recession in 2024 but says that the Federal Reserve has eased conditions enough that it will happen later in the year and likely will be mild. Still, he says the risk is that inflation is not really dead, and what happens if it starts to re-ignite. As a result, he is hedging against inflation and while he would like to use gold to do it -- although he notes it is "a hedge against central banks turning too dovish," and not a hedge on gold -- he is suggesting that the high price of precious metals makes it that he favors TIPs [Treasury inflation-protected securities]. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses recent research on the retirement outlook for women. The Center's latest report shows more than half of the 3,000 women surveyed feel they don't have enough income to save for retirement, and less than one in five are very confident that they will be able to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks big-name, mega-cap brand-name stocks and how a focus on quality keeps "blue chips from turning into cow chips."

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research's Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the outlook for the US dollar. What are the forces that have recently been driving the dollar lower? Will expensive valuations dampen the dollar's ability to strengthen in the event of a recession? And what are the conditions that are needed for carry trades to perform well going forward?

Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn speak with Matt Gertken, chief strategist of BCA Research on the outlook for geopolitics and the markets.

Matt Gertken, chief strategist, global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says that higher levels of leadership uncertainty lead to lower stock prices, and that the peak polarization in U.S. politics has taken the government's eyes off the ball when it comes to the actions of Russia and China, which could lead to policy mistakes and real costs on Americans in the global marketplace. Gertkin explains that the political gridlock is not all bad news for investors, noting that it restricts how far either side can go in blowing out the budget, but says that a recession is likely to lead to one party being swept into control. Jerremy Newsome of Real-Life Trading says the market's recent pullback "is a healthy rotation on the general broader uptrend of the markets," meaning that declines are buying opportunities because the market has room to run higher and is showing signs that it will, although much of that continuing rally may still be in mega-cap names. In The NAVigator segment, Robert Bush, director of closed-end products at Calamos Investments, says that discounts have widened to nearly 10 percent this year, and while closed-end funds haven't participated much in 2023's gains, they have become attractively priced, even though they are being challenged by many other investments when it comes to delivering good yields to investors. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor, The Independent Vanguard Adviser, talks about "buying the manager, not the fund" to build a portfolio.

Jeffrey Bierman, founder of The QuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says that the market is overheated and overbought, but it very well could rise from here and re-touch record highs before a likely correction ahead. Bierman says technology and leisure are the areas that have made the market frothy and are overdue for a correction of 30 percent or more, and while oil and financials will help the overall market cushion the fall, Bierman believes utilities and pharmaceutical stocks will be areas to outperform while the market goes through 'unavoidable' pain. Brian Payne, chief strategist for private markets and alternatives at BCA Research talks about the wide-ranging opportunities in the private credit markets, and how senior loans and other private credit varieties can goose a portfolio's yield. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen identifies three common red flags pointing to signs of financial fraud in the latest installment of 'Find Me The Money,' and Eric Boughton, chief analyst at Matisse Capital, talks about closed-end funds, wide discounts and current buying opportunities in the Market Call.

In early June, the US Securities & Exchange Commission filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, the world's 2 largest crypto exchanges, causing more volatility in an industry that is already accustomed to it. Juan Correa Ossa, Associate Vice President at BCA Research helps us understand if cryptos are a security like a stock, a commodity or neither, and are they a viable investment option?Image by: Shutterstock

Who would have thought this time last year, with Brent above $120 a barrel, it would now be languishing at $75?BCA Research, which published a paper last year predicting $55 Brent, says there is still more downside. Chief strategist Dhaval Joshi says the markets have miscalculated both demand and supply.On the demand side, there's been little or no recognition of how bad the downturn would be, and supply has been underestimated with Russia willing and able to sell cheap oil to fund its war in Ukraine. Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice.  Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube  *Your capital is at risk. 75% of retail CFD accounts lose money*

Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn speak with Doug Peta, BCA Research's Chief Strategiest on outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

Check out the Prometheus platform for more expert financial content. Invest in alternatives and become a better fund manager.Download the iOS appDesktop appwww.prometheusalts.comMarko Papic leads Clocktower's strategy team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012. Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor. He holds graduate degrees from UT Austin and the University of British Columbia.0:07:45 - Yield Curve and COVID Fiscal Response (41 Seconds)0:11:44 - Fed Cuts Rates and Consumer Response (68 Seconds)0:14:38 - Inflation and Interest Rates (60 Seconds)0:18:06 - Presidential Influence on FMC Leniency (93 Seconds)0:24:22 - Impact of American Elites on FOMC (90 Seconds)0:32:43 - Geopolitical Pornography and Containing China (53 Seconds)0:45:34 - Emerging Market Commodities Bullish Case (79 Seconds)0:52:46 - Debt Ceiling Debate (34 Seconds)1:06:34 - Lakers vs. Golden State (69 Seconds)Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/geo_papic?lang=en 

Interview recorded - 08/12/2022On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Marko Papic, Partner & Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, as well as author of the book “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”.During our conversation we spoke about the greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics, the importance of the median voter, whether China's bearishness has gone too far and keeping emotions outside of investing. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:25 - Greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics?3:25 - Why is the median voter important and what influence do they have?6:10 - Do central banks also have constraints based on Median Voter?10:00 - Differences between preferences and constraints?13:31 - Any other broader constraints not getting enough attention?17:00 - China aggression overstated?20:25 - How would you use framework to take a position?23:40 - Multiple variables impacting certain position24:40 - Has China bearishness gone too far?28:40 - Should you overcomplicate the trade?31:50 - Most of the capital comes from the US and China33:05 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?34:55 - Keeping emotions outside of investingMarko Papic is a partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Previously, Mr. Papic founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the financial industry's first dedicated political analysis investment strategy, which generated “geopolitical alpha” by identifying gaps between the market's political expectations and the firm's forecasts. He served as a senior vice president and the chief geopolitical strategist at the firm. Mr. Papic began his career as a senior analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm's global geopolitical strategy and its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Mr. Papic is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, a book that introduces the constraint-based framework to investors. He earned an MA in political science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British ColumbiaMarko Papic - Book - https://amzn.to/3uEDPV0Twitter - https://twitter.com/Geo_papicLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/China Research - https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacroWTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic. Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms. Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says... Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish. When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them. Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession. He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did? Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor... I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.

In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic. Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms. Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says... Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish. When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them. Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession. He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did? Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor... I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.

Marko returns to the show to continue the conversation. Back in episode six, our conversation centred around geopolitical change. In this episode, we broadened it out - and detailed how to think about the future and think about the big picture. A great conversation and so highly relevant to the changing world around us.   Mako today leads Clocktower's strategy team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012. Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor. He holds graduate degrees from UT Austin and the University of British Columbia. Marko also authored the great book Geopolitical Alpha.

Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market has been seeing its various drivers falter since last year, starting with uptrends turning to downtrends in developed markets like Europe, then in emerging markets, then small- and mid-cap stocks, and now domestic large-cap stocks. With less than half of the market sectors showing positive trends now, Samana says "This is not a time to be playing offense, this is a much better time to be playing defense." In The Big Interview, Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while. And in the Market Call, George Young of the Villere Funds talks about long-term investment strategies with small-company stocks.

Welcome to the The Voice of Retail , I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada.Stephen Poloz, author, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada, joins me on this very special episode for an exclusive interview to discuss the launch of his new book, "The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future."Together Stephen and I talk about the major tectonic forces that are shaping a chaotic world. Among these forces are an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances are quickening the pace of change, but Poloz argues the core fundamentals have always been there.Stay tuned for the former Governor's perspective on the economic prospects for retailers in 2022, and find out why Captain Jean Luc Pickard makes a cameo appearance in the book.Thanks for tuning into this special episode of The Voice of Retail.  If you haven't already, be sure and click subscribe on your favourite podcast platform so new episodes will land automatically twice a week, and check out my other retail industry media properties; the Remarkable Retail podcast, the Conversations with CommerceNext podcast, and the Food Professor podcast.  Last but not least, if you are into BBQ, check out my all new YouTube barbecue show, Last Request Barbeque, with new episodes each and every week!I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company & Maven Media, and if you're looking for more content, or want to chat  follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website meleblanc.co!  Have a safe week everyone!About StephenStephen is a widely recognized economist with nearly 40 years of experience in financial markets, forecasting, and economic policy, including 35 years in the public sector.Prior to joining Osler, Stephen was the 9th Governor of the Bank of Canada, Canada's central bank. Stephen was Governor of the Bank for seven years after having previously spent 14 years there during 1981-95 occupying a range of increasingly senior positions.Prior to joining the Bank of Canada, Stephen spent 14 years at Export Development Canada, as Chief Economist (1999-2008), Head of Lending (2008-2011) and finally as President and CEO (2011-2013). He also spent four years at BCA Research, where he was Managing Editor of the International Bank Credit Analyst, one of their flagship publications.Stephen is a Certified International Trade Professional and a graduate of Columbia University's Senior Executive Program. He has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and at the Economic Planning Agency in Tokyo, Japan. He is a frequent speaker and writer and has taught economics at the University of Western Ontario, Concordia University and Queen's School of Business.At Osler, Stephen provides clients with his significant expertise and strategic guidance regarding the financial system, trade, and economic policy both domestically and on a global scale. About MichaelMichael is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. He has delivered keynotes, hosted fire-side discussions with C-level executives and participated on thought leadership panels worldwide.  Michael was recently added to ReThink Retail's prestigious Top 100 Global Retail Influencers for a second year in  2022.Michael is also the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts, including Canada's top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus the Remarkable Retail with author Steve Dennis, Global E-Commerce Tech Talks and The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois.  Most recently, Michael launched Conversations with CommerceNext, a podcast focussed on retail eCommerce, digital marketing and retail careers - all available on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music and all major podcast platforms.   Michael is also the producer and host of the “Last Request Barbeque” channel on YouTube where he cooks meals to die for and influencer riches.

Episode Six with Marko Papic dives into some of the most important issues around us today from a geopolitical stand point. While this episode we get a little technical at some points, there is a lot of gold in the view Marko brings to the conversation. Mako today leads Clocktower's strategy team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012. Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor. He holds graduate degrees from UT Austin and the University of British Columbia. Marko also authored the great book Geopolitical Alpha.

Our guest today is Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in California. In 2011, he founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the world's only dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis. He also recently wrote the book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. In this episode we discuss why investors need to be cognizant of geopolitics for the first time in 40 years, his framework anyone can use to assess the impact of geopolitics, and what his views are on global assets and relations with a Biden administration.  He explains why the median voter in the U.S. has moved to the left and the impact that will have, and what constraints the government will face over the next two years. Our local co-host today is Steve Curley, CFA, CIO of WaterOak Advisors and current President of the CFA Society of Orlando. Please enjoy the episode.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL