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Keeping you ahead of the curve on Bitcoin price and fundamentals analysis, news and economics. - | @BTCMRKTS

Ansel Lindner

    • Sep 8, 2022 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 33m AVG DURATION
    • 140 EPISODES

    4.5 from 70 ratings Listeners of Bitcoin & Markets that love the show mention: bitcoin, crypto, anyone interested, market, giving, guy, understand, must listen, work, thanks, show, time, new, great, good, love, ansel.

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    Latest episodes from Bitcoin & Markets

    The Geopolitics of Power - E249

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2022 59:31

    This episode is a recording of my telegram live stream today. In it I discuss a recent video sent to me by a member on I took the opportunity to describe how power difference appear in the geopolitical chess board. We get into the history of power, the geopolitics of Athens and Sparta, Britain vs France, why some areas have different cultures and economics versus other places, and finally, where is it all going. Original video: (give it a watch and a like) Full show notes:  

    Bitcoin, Ukraine, Taiwan, Richard Werner | Telegram Live Stream rebroadcast - E246

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2022 25:11

    Fear Hustlers and Alarmist Pimps - E245

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2022 18:01

    Member video Full show notes Article read from

    Energy Crisis and Recession | A Reaction to Peak Prosperity - E243

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2022 98:18

    Biggest mistake Boomers make about Bitcoin, Confuse it with Crypto - E242

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2022 37:43

    Bretton Woods 3 is Silly, Here's Why! [Reaction] - E240

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2022 65:51

    My Model: Making Sense of Ukraine - E238b

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2022 28:12

    This is the second episode of the week, covering my personal model by which I evaluate the market and important geopolitical news. The main outline can be found on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report #183. Complete show notes at

    Bitcoin's Performance Under Recent Stress - E238a

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2022 4:45

    This is the first part of two episodes that will cover my recent Bitcoin Fundamentals Report #183, specifically the Market Commentary section. Part A is much shorter than part B. Bitcoin has generally performed well when compared to gold and stocks since Russian military operations started in Ukraine on 24 Feb. I give a run down of that performance here. Every bitcoin bull should be happy with how stable bitcoin has been despite the massive geopolitical upheavals.

    Bitcoin Czar & Clean Bitcoin Mining - E236b

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2022 16:01

    Part 2 this week is the rest of the news of the week, price analysis and Bitcoin mining news. Bitcoin is becoming a major player in the great game of international politics. I also get into the conflict in Ukraine a bit at the end. Follow along at Episode post  

    Bitcoin Mining News - Intel, Blue States hate bitcoin, and Mempool rising - E235c

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2022 7:00

    This short episode is the third part of the series examining the current news of the day in the bitcoin mining industry. Intel has announced it will be making bitcoin ASIC computer chips, Lansing Michigan is trying to crush bitcoin mining in their city, and the mempool is rising meaning there is an increase in the demand to receive bitcoin. Report: for more links.

    Bitcoin Price - CPI, Dormancy Flow and Bloomberg - E235b

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2022 11:58

    Part 2 of this week's report all about the price. I talk about CPI not being a measure of money printing, but of prices and the explanation for 7% CPI due to supply chain issues. Next I introduce the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow. I thought this chart was interesting and will be looking into more in the future. Lastly, I welcome Bloomberg to the bitcoin prediction party, finally. They all of a sudden have what they think is a good model for price based on volatility, but a week later and it's already proving to be wrong.

    Bitcoin Report: Russia, Bitfinex, Blackrock and Binance

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2022 16:40

    In this episode I walk through four big news items for the week, starting with Russia saying they will regulate bitcoin not ban it. I then move onto the Bitfinex hackers and the recent news about Blackrock opening up bitcoin investing to their clients. I finish off by discussing Binance's newest investment in Forbes for $200M and the precedence that it might set for the entire bitcoin industry. Follow along with the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report at This is part 1 of a series of episodes that will come out this week. Feedback is welcome.

    Bitcoin's 4-year Cycles Are Over - E234

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 10, 2022 11:13

    This is a quick episode to address a question I received via Twitter DM from a reader of the weekly newsletter. He was wondering why I was labeling the market cycle timing as a 2-year cycle instead of the commonly understood 4-year cycle.

    Evergrande The Deteriorating Situation in China - E233

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2021 34:51

    This is an early cut of the Evergrande podcast episode coming out next week on Fed Watch. I discuss the proper context in which to view Evergrande, and give details on what I see going on over there in China. Full notes:

    NFTs and Bitcoin Fungibility - E228

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2021 44:28

    Full show notes: I listen to and react to an interview Pompliano did with "the most famous digital artist in the world," Beeple, who recent sold a JPG for $69 million. Then I go through what fungibility is and why it applies to bitcoin. Pomp and Beeple Fungibility of Bitcoin - BTCM Research blog  

    Triffin Dilemma: Quick Part 2 - E227

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 15, 2021 13:55

    I quote heavily from Lyn and the BIS in this episode, drilling down the essense of the problem with the premise of deficits being the basis for foreign reserves of the dollar. Short answer, they aren't. There's very little evidence that deficits matter to foreign reserves at all, or that they play more than a very small role. The single most important source of foreign reserves is the eurodollar market. If we clear our minds of the role of deficits, then what is the argument for the unsustainability of the USD system? Well, it boils down to the end of a gigantic global credit bubble enabled by the Pax Americana. Hope this helps clarify. Stay tuned for the next episode on NFTs and fungibility. It will be a satisfying episode. A Links The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - Lyn Alden Fraying with my highlights Why Trade Deficits Matter - Lyn Alden BIS Report - Triffin: Dilemma or Myth? BIS Report with my highlights

    Triffin Dilemma: Fact or Fiction? - E226

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2021 17:18

    Website: Hopefully this episode helps you understand the arguments people often make and if they hold water next time the invoke the Triffin Dilemma. My interest in the Triffin Dilemma started several months ago. Little did I know then that I was trying to debunk an ahistorical extension of the original Triffin argument. I initially came to this conclusion: The problem with using Triffin in an argument about a dollar collapse is 1) it's ahistorical and 2) there doesn't need to be a capital account deficit in the US and surpluses in other countries for them to acquire dollar reserves. In this episode, I try to provide you with a basic understanding of the original Triffin Dilemma from Robert Triffin in 1958, and of why the modern extensions of this famous prediction are poor facsimiles. I provide tons of useful links below as part of the show notes. Balance of Payments It all comes down to the Balance of Payments for a country which issues the global reserve currency. The two main parts of the BoP are the current account and the capital account (including the financial account which we don't talk about). These two halves of the BoP must balance. The current account consists main of a balance of trade. Is the country running a trade surplus or a trade deficit. Other factors are things like foreign aid which we don't have to consider because it's very small compared to the trade balance. The capital account consists of flow of assets and liabilities for the country as a whole. When a foreigner buys a US asset (or a dollar denominated asset) this is a positive input for the capital account. In the reverse, when a US person or entity buys an asset in a foreign country it is a negative input for the capital account. Remember, the current account must be offset by the capital account. Therefore, if the US has a trade deficit of say $500 billion, they must have a capital account surplus of $500 billion. Triffin and Trade Surpluses When Triffin was writing the original Triffin Dilemma, in the 50's and 60's, the US ran massive trade surpluses. This means the capital account was negative - the US was losing assets abroad, or more accurately gaining liabilities abroad. Triffin was concerned that when the dollar denominated value of foreign liabilities surpassed that of the US's gold stock which backed the dollar at the time, there would be a run on the gold stock by those foreigners. They would sell their dollar denominated assets and take delivery of the gold, portending the doom of the US dollar peg. Current Account and Fiscal Triffin The US dollar did end up going off the gold standard in 1971, but not for the reasons Triffin predicted. Despite being accidently right, this form of argument became very popular in economics. Today, we can see two main extensions to the Triffin Dilemma, "current account Triffin" which is exactly the opposite of the original theory, and "fiscal Triffin" which is about global demand for US debt to cause the US to run unsustainable fiscal deficits. The current account Triffin is the most used by inflationists to support their dollar bear views, and, well, it's totally false. It reverses cause and effect, and lacks a clear systemic risk. The fiscal Triffin is more sound, but it is also false. It fails to consider other forms of safe assets like Mortgage Backed Securities and other derivatives. These are inferior to US Treasuries, but they are still widely used in their place (with an associated premium surely). Fiscal Triffin also lacks a clear systemic risk to the financial system, so is unlike the original. Hope this helps. A Links Wikipedia entry for Triffin Dilemma BIS Report - Triffin: Dilemma or Myth? BIS Report with my highlights via Hypothesis Understanding Capital And Financial Accounts In The Balance Of Payments - Investopedia FRED - Financial Accounts of the United States Khan Academy - Balance of payments: Capital account

    Thucydides Trap: China vs US, Real or Debunked? - E225

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2021 37:34

    Full show notes with images and links at At first glance, the Chinese miracle has survived the virus recession and returned to growth. There is no lack of articles proclaiming the inevitable dominance of the communists, sitting atop the list of largest economies in the world. An idea that a rising CCP will want to stretch its new found legs and exercise influence over international trade and diplomacy, and that will bring them into direct conflict with the declining power, the US. This idea was titled the Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison in 2012. Since then it has been a widely used and debated point. While it makes sense that the West is stuck in a debt trap cycle making them destined to stagnation (unless bitcoin), it does not follow in the least that the CCP will continue to rise. The pattern we have seen in China over the last 20 years, is nearly identical to the pattern we saw in Japan from 1970-1990. In this episode I read the original work by Graham Allison and then a great article debunking this work of ahistorical fiction. Hopefully it helps you next time you hear someone using the Thucydides Trap idea to support a decline of the West.

    Europe's Plan for a Central Bank Digital Currency - E223

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2020 54:06

    In this episode, I read through a blog post from ECB President Lagarde about central bank digital currencies. I tackle the strengths and weaknesses of her claims and draw conclusions about their plans, in particular the ECB. Website: The future of money – innovating while retaining trust

    Simon Dixon's Bretton Woods 2.0 Interview Reaction - E222

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2020 52:44

    In this episode, I react to a Simon Dixon interview where he spells out his thinking on the future of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and bitcoin. I respect Simon but couldn't disagree more with his CBDC prediction. We do however agree on bitcoin. Original Video: Website:

    Raoul Pal "Bitcoin Life Raft" and CBDCs - REACTION - E220

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2020 60:08

    Original video: Full show notes: 5:15 - Introducing the problems faced by the USD system I agree there's problems, but not the things he lays out. I believe his arguments show he has not considered monetary convergence and has a relatively mainstream understanding of the current system. 9:50 - CBDC Raoul claims the CBDCs are a way to address the problems he has laid out. Again, I disagree that the problems are what he says, and I also disagree that CBDCs can do what he thinks. The three big problems he lays out: 16:25 - Cash, freedom, and an agreement of nations (Bretton Woods 2.0) 23:15 END

    Peter Schiff Scandal and Thoughts on Scarcity - E219

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2020 16:14

    In this episode, I voice my support for Peter Schiff against the baseless allegations currently being leveled at him. Then I dig into a slightly older tweet from earlier this year, where Peter talks about gold and scarcity. I take it piece by piece and discuss all the economic ideas behind why he is wrong. Website:

    Is Inflation Coming to the Dollar? M2 and Velocity - E218

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2020 15:09

    In this episode we walk through a discussion of money supply, Fed policy, and velocity, to find out if inflation is coming to the dollar. This is an important concept for bitcoin because many people believe bitcoin's fate is tied to a weak dollar, which it is not. Website: Twitter: Links M0: M1: M2: GDP:  

    Reaction to DiMartino Booth Interview and Show Update - E217

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2020 56:58

    The beloved bitcoin podcast is back with a reaction and hot takes on a recent interview between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Bitcoin Magazine's show Fed Watch. The show starts with an update on this podcast's current and future direction, then we listen to the recent interview, and finally react to it.

    Bitcoin Mixing, Wasabi, and Coinbase - E216

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2020 20:45

    In this episode, I read through the new Europol EC3 Cyber Bits April and May issues where they talk about Wasabi wallet and bitcoin mixing in general. Full show notes at My copy:  Original:  Next part is on why you should Delete Coinbase. They are trying to sell your data to the DEA and the IRS. Story:  Janine thread on Neutrino and now Coinbase's crimes against human rights. Coinbase owns the technology from  

    Comparing BTC and ETH Inflation - E215

    Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2020 17:31

    In this episode, I base a discussion about bitcoin and ethereum inflation around a tweet from Ryan Sean Adams, a popular etherean. I touch on the bitcoin halving, the fact that bitcoin's supply is not changing, and how ethereum wants to copy bitcoin and make unwarranted comparisons. Tweet: Full show notes at

    The Case for Deflation Part 4 Liquidity and REPO - E214

    Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2020 21:10

    In this episode I walk through an understanding of Liquidity and how the actions of the Federal Reserve can't increase liquidity and flow in the economy. I also give a quick definition of the REPO market and interpret it as a money substitute factory - a place that creates and destroys money substitutes. This is the consensus layer of the global financial system and how we need to define what money is. It's money substitutes that flow through the REPO and money markets. Mises on money​ substitutes Jeff Snider ​Excellent REPO market resource ​ ​Highlighted Fed paper on Discount Window Stigma and how they try to address it

    The Case for Deflation Part 3 - E213

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2020 24:02

    In Part 3, I answer some critiques and questions from the audience. The discussion on liquidity and Repo, the base layer of the Eurodollar system is now moved to Part 4 coming up soon. Questions from Epistemicrisis, Xan, CryptoGamer and Colin Harper. WTF is happening with the Fed?! - Is this inflation w/ Ansel Lindner - WTF 5  Website:

    Case for Deflation part 2 - E212

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 23, 2020 11:42

    In this episode I tackle different types of money, debt, fiat and commodity monies. I discuss how they behave differently as a global money standard. Debt has a unique aspect of global deflation that's not shared with other forms of money. I discuss bailouts at money replacement, not money expansion. Finally, I wrap up with how this all ends.

    Case for Deflation Part 1 - E211

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2020 13:24

    In part one of this series I describe two important schools of thought on the global monetary system and the future of the dollar: the Dollar Milkshake and the Eurodollar. Then I try to establish a definition for inflation as a monetary phenomenon based on mainstream Milton Friedman, Mises and my own defintition. Lastly, I ask the question if what we think of as monetary expansion today, is actually monetary expansion. In part two, I'll discuss the differences I see between debt based money, fiat and commodity money. Website: Brent Johnson Dollar Milkshake:  Jeff Snider Eurodollar University:  Milton Friedman:  Mises: 

    Bitcoin Market Commentary, Read Through - E210

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2020 24:39

    Hi Bitcoiners, I'm reading through my Friday newsletter The Fundamentals Report along with my extra commentary. Topics covered are the virus and effects of lock downs and shortages in gold and the dollar. I also talk about how bitcoin fits into this market. Show notes post: Report:

    General Update, Virus, Dollar, China and Japan - E209

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 30, 2020 16:31

    In this episode I discuss the bullish case for bitcoin being driven by QE but not via a weaker dollar. The dollar will continue to strengthen in a volatile way. Bitcoin will be bid because the traditional market will get worse and worse at price discovery and bitcoin will get better and better. I bring in two articles. The first one is about China's consumer credit bubble popping and the second is about primary dealers in Japan refusing to sell their JGB's to the Bank of Japan. That effectively stops QE as a weapon of the central bank. The primary dealers would rather use their JGB's in dollar swaps with the Fed. China consumer credit: Japanese bonds: Website:

    A Devalued Government - E208

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2020 15:11

    In this episode I use a tweet by Pierre Rochard and a video from Daniel Hannan as a jumping off point to talk about globalization, the growing distrust in our institutions, non-monetary rewards, and what this current crisis will lead to. Links: Pierre's tweet: "If everyone added to their cash balances during the good times, they wouldn't need to beg politicians and central bankers for bailouts during the bad times. But inflation penalizes cash balances. This is why we #Bitcoin." Daniel Hannan video: Website:

    Fed Panic Dollar Melt Up - E206

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2020 18:13

    In this episode, I break the news that the Fed has cut interest rates to zero and launched QE 5. The Fed is not in charge of interest rates, they follow the market. Interest rates were already close to zero in the market, so this move by the Fed was reactionary. They have lost control. I also talk about currency swaps and how to position yourself for the coming financial reset. Image link: News article: Transcript of rate cut: Highlighted transcript of rate cut: Transcript of liquidity announcement:

    51% Attacks Arent That Easy - E205

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2020 10:03

    In this episode I discuss ideas around the misunderstood concept of 51% attacks in mining, drawing inspiration from a tweet by @SGBarbour. Tweet: Website:  

    Coronavirus and Macro Update - E204

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2020 16:24

    In this episode we discuss the historic times we are living in, focusing on the evolving situation and effects on the markets of the coronavirus. I touch on the stock market, bonds, yield curve, prepping, what you should expect to develop over the next few months. We also speak briefly on the bitcoin price, why it's falling, and what we can expect over the next few weeks going into the halving.    

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