Podcasts about Macroeconomics

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down.Related contentFed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda's absence

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Larry McDonald. They discuss what's driven this sell-off, whether the Iran conflict had anything to do with it, and where the opportunities lie in today's markets. https://bit.ly/4ebDAHe    

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble.Related contentBar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every & Rory Johnston. They discuss all things Iran from geopolitics to inflation outlook to what it means for China to President Trump and Secretary Bessent's stablecoin statecraft ambitions. https://bit.ly/3RQ4ixB    

In our podcast episode, Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, is joined by Marc Stacey, Investment Grade Senior Portfolio Manager. Amidst a backdrop of increased geopolitical risk, Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher, and Europe ramping up defence spending, the region's banks are thriving. Mike and Marc discuss why the sector is showing resilience during the current uncertainty, why European banks are set to benefit from the AI hyperscaler buildout, and nuance behind the private credit headlines.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different era. In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin explore why long-term bond yields remain elevated, how rising uncertainty is driving a higher term premium, and what a potential shift away from the “Great Moderation” could mean for investors. They discuss how inflation volatility, reduced likelihood of Fed asset purchases, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for interest rates and economic stability. The conversation also examines changing correlations between stocks and bonds, and whether equities are underpricing risks. Then, Liz Ann is joined by RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. Joe reinforces the idea of a structural shift, describing a “split-screen” economy marked by inequality, policy shocks, and an AI-driven transformation. He expects trend-level growth but sustained inflation pressures, with risks tied to energy supply disruptions and potential knock-on effects to equities via the wealth effect. The conversation highlights a disconnect between resilient equity markets and more cautious signals from bond markets, suggesting investors brace for higher-for-longer rates, ongoing volatility, and a more complex economic cycle. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To keep up with Joe Brusuelas, you can follow him on X: @joebrusuelas On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Alternative investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Investors may lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. Alternative investments cover a wide array of strategies, including real estate, private equity, private credit, and hedge funds. Risks will vary based on each unique strategy and can include investments in highly illiquid assets or securities, use of leverage, higher fees, lower transparency, tax risks, and limited ability to redeem or limited transferability. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. (0526-NRT9)   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won't snap back quickly to pre-war levels.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy.They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz's potency as a geopolitical choke point.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren & Jim Bianco.  They'll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://bit.ly/4tXAlJr    

What happens when you apply deep operational experience to the massive, complex budget of the world's fifth-largest economy? In this episode, we sit down with California gubernatorial candidate, author, and political commentator Steve Hilton. We dive into the structural inflection points that shaped modern California, the true multi-generational fallout of controversial tax policies like the proposed "Billionaire Tax," and the leadership frameworks required to manage massive public budgets. Steve also pulls back the curtain on his gubernatorial campaign trail, sharing his biggest "ah-ha" moments and how he would structure a modern debate to cut through political theater. Whether you are interested in macroeconomic policy, corporate governance, or the future of the Golden State, this conversation offers a masterclass in strategic leadership and policy design. Key Discussion Points & Timeline Structural Inflection Points: The one historical decision that radically altered the trajectory of California's economy and infrastructure. The Macroeconomics of Leadership: Deconstructing the specific blend of financial acumen and deep operational experience required to run massive, multi-billion-dollar public budgets. Second-Degree Fallout of the "Billionaire Tax": A critical analysis of the downstream, unintended economic consequences of hyper-targeting high-net-worth individuals and capital allocators in California. Reimagining the Modern Debate: How Steve would moderate a high-stakes debate, his strategy for crafting questions, and how to force accountability on the public stage. Featured Guest Links Official Campaign Website: Steve Hilton for Governor Biography & Background: Steve Hilton on Wikipedia ⚖️ Compliance Disclaimer Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or legal advice, nor do they necessarily reflect the views of Finalis Inc. or Finalis Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Macroeconomic conditions are squeezing US airlines and travelers just in time for the summer travel season.  Higher fuel costs due to the conflict in the Middle East are pushing up ticket prices. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed fares rose by about 3% in April. Meanwhile, choices for cheap seats decreased when Spirit Airlines went out of business in May. The ultra low-cost carrier blamed soaring energy prices. What does this uptick in energy inflation mean for airlines' profits and travelers' wallets?   Nic Owens is an equity analyst for Morningstar and covers the North American airlines. April CPI Report Shows Inflation Broadening As Energy Spike Impact Spreads On this episode: 00:00:00 Welcome 00:01:21 Energy prices and airline profit outlooks 00:02:40 How this summer's travel demand stacks up  00:04:01 Which Big Four airlines are most and least vulnerable  00:05:44 Who will compete for Spirit's former customers 00:07:00 Tips for travelers   00:08:51 What Morningstar's analyst thinks about airline stocks Watch more from Morningstar: Bond ETF Flows Just Flipped. Here's What It Means for You How Big Tech's Bond Spree and Rising US Debt Are Creating Risks and Opportunities 10 Exceptional Stocks With Double-Digit Dividend Raises   Follow Morningstar on social: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/ X https://x.com/MorningstarInc Instagram https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Macroeconomic volatility creates value for muni bond investors. Follow Us Twitter @NYLInvestments Twitter @MacKayMuniMgrs Facebook @NYLInvestments LinkedIn: New York Life Investments LinkedIn: MacKay Municipal Managers Presented by New York Life Investmentswww.newyorklifeinvestments.com   MacKay Municipal Managers is a team of portfolio managers at MacKay Shields. MacKay Shields is 100% owned by NYLIM Holdings, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. “New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won't be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan's yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan's grip on reflation. Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank's efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related contentWatch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What's next for equitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-ai-driven-paradigm-shift-or-dotcom-bubble-redux-whats-next-equitiesRead: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for Indiahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-update/heatwave-completes-trifecta-risks-indiaExplore: Fiscal Riskshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fiscal-risks

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Morgan Downey. They discuss the ongoing crisis, with Morgan warning that all buffers and safety margins have been exhausted, explaining why a Strait closure lasting another month could drive oil prices to $150–$200, and exploring several other critical dimensions of this rapidly evolving situation. https://bit.ly/3Pe3zpa    

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Europe's NATO members have pledged 3.5% of GDP to rearmament. The political argument is already about which social programmes will be sacrificed to pay for this, when the government chooses guns instead of butter. What does history tell us about what politicians will do?Christoph Trebesch and Johannes Marzian spent four years assembling the Global Budget Database: 150 years of primary government budget documents from 20 countries, with 116 identified military spending booms in peace and war. They find that governments almost never cut social spending when they rearm; they expand both military and welfare budgets simultaneously. The bill arrives later, as higher taxes. Top income rates typically rise by 10 to 15 percentage points in the decade following a military boom, funded mainly through broad-based income and value-added taxes. With rearmament underway, will history repeat itself?The research behind this episode:Marzian, Johannes, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War." CEPR Discussion Paper 21193. [Gated]To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestChristoph Trebesch is Director of the Research Center on International Finance at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. His research spans sovereign debt, financial crises, China's role in global finance, the economics of populism, and the long-run fiscal history of military spending. He is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). In 2024 he received the Hermann Heinrich Gossen Award, Germany's leading economics prize for economists under 45.Research cited in this episodeThe Global Budget Database is the primary dataset introduced in this paper. Marzian and Trebesch constructed it from primary archival sources, including national parliamentary budget documents, for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. Unlike existing datasets that rely on planned rather than realised expenditures, it records what governments actually spent, broken down by ministry and purpose. The Switzerland case illustrates the stakes: standard sources record Swiss military spending at around 2% of GDP during the World Wars. The archival record shows actual spending reached 10% once off-budget items are included; five times the apparent figure.The Correlates of War (COW) Military Expenditures Dataset is one of the most widely used secondary-source datasets for historical military spending, maintained by the Correlates of War Project. Trebesch uses the Swiss case to illustrate the limitations of secondary-source data: the COW series misses off-budget military items that primary archival documents capture, producing a significantly distorted picture of wartime mobilisation in a number of countries.Credit booms methodology provided the template for identifying military spending booms. Trebesch and Marzian define a boom as an increase of at least 6.5 percentage points of military spending as a share of GDP over two consecutive years, ending when spending growth falls to zero. This approach, adapted from the literature on financial credit expansions and their economic consequences, allows systematic cross-country and cross-period identification without relying on retrospective classification alone. Each algorithmically flagged episode was then verified against historical sources.Local projections are the main statistical technique used to trace the long-run fiscal path following military booms. The method estimates how a variable (here, tax revenues and top income rates) evolves over time following an identified shock. It is well suited to the protracted dynamics Trebesch and Marzian observe: tax rates rising over a decade or more after a military buildup and, critically, not returning to pre-boom levels once the spending episode ends.Exogenous military shocks are the basis of the paper's causal identification strategy. To separate the fiscal effects of military spending from broader economic conditions, the authors distinguish episodes triggered by external geopolitical events from those driven by domestic factors. France's rearmament in the mid-1930s, forced by Nazi Germany's military expansion regardless of French domestic politics, is used as an example of an exogenous peacetime boom. Germany's own rearmament in the same period would not qualify as exogenous, since Germany initiated the shock. The same logic applies to wars: a country attacked faces an exogenous event; the attacker does not.More VoxTalks Economics episodesIn Can Europe Defend Itself?, featuring Moritz Schularick, Christoph's colleague from the Kiel Institute, we examine whether Europe has the industrial and strategic capacity to convert its rearmament commitment into credible deterrence, and what European rearmament could mean in practice. Related reading on VoxEUDefence spending: no free lunch, a VoxEU column arguing that increased military expenditure adds modestly to near-term economic activity while adding to fiscal pressure; lasting economic benefits from rearmament are far from guaranteed.Macroeconomic impacts of defence spending, a VoxEU column modelling the EU-wide effects of raising NATO members' defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035; projected GDP gains are modest and come at the cost of higher debt-to-GDP ratios.Converging military spending and its fiscal consequences, a VoxEU column examining long-run trends in military expenditure across countries and the fiscal footprint they leave behind.The economic effects of military support for Ukraine: evidence from fiscal multipliers in donor countries, a VoxEU column finding that spending multipliers for military expenditure can exceed those for other categories of public spending.

Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country.Also on the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the latest activity data suggest the global economy has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Iran conflict – and why that resilience could soon be tested. 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They discuss why the Hormuz crisis hasn't derailed the S&P 500's surge to new all-time highs, Mike's disagreement with secular-inflation forecasts, why Kevin Warsh could be more likely to cut rates aggressively than hike, and the unintended consequences of passive investing through index funds. https://bit.ly/3R6TDhH    

Matt Weinzierl is Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Research and Development at Harvard Business School, where he is the Joseph and Jacqueline Elbling Professor of Business Administration in the Business, Government, and the International Economy Unit, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. From 2022 through 2025, he served as Faculty Chair of the MBA Program at HBS, where he also teaches courses on economic policy and the space sector. His research focuses on the optimal design of economic policy, in particular taxation, with an emphasis on better understanding the philosophical principles underlying policy choices, and on the commercialization of the space sector and its economic implications. Prior to completing his PhD in economics at Harvard University in 2008, Professor Weinzierl served as the Staff Economist for Macroeconomics on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and worked in the New York office of McKinsey & Company.  Professor Weinzierl has written on a range of topics in optimal taxation and optimal economic policy more generally. His work in Positive Optimal Tax Theory has focused on identifying and formalizing the goals for tax policy that hold sway among the public, political and economic leaders, and leading tax thinkers, and then characterizing the implications of using those objectives in the analysis of optimal taxation.Professor Weinzierl currently serves as Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Development and Research. He previously served as Senior Associate Dean, Chair of the MBA Program and as Chair of the MBA Required Curriculum (RC). Prior to those positions, he was the coursehead for Business, Government, and the International Economy (BGIE), an RC course, and Chair of MBA Community Standards and the Conduct Review Board at HBS. He has created and currently teaches two courses in the Elective Curriculum: The Role of Government in Market Economies (RoGME) and Space, Public and Commercial Economics (SPACE).Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontierhttps://shorturl.at/5W1QU

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the market backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict, noting that while oil price volatility has influenced inflation expectations and Treasury yields, its broader economic impact has been limited so far due to lag effects and structural shifts in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, investor attention has returned to earnings season and AI-driven growth, with a narrow group of mega-cap companies responsible for a disproportionate share of earnings upgrades—highlighting ongoing concentration risks in both markets and fundamentals. Then, Collin Martin is joined by Inga Rachwald, director and senior investment portfolio strategist supporting Schwab Asset Management. Inga addresses common challenges, including the perceived breakdown of diversification during periods of market concentration or rising rates, and explains why these are often misinterpretations driven by inappropriate benchmarks. The discussion introduces goal-based investing as a more practical framework, aligning portfolios with specific time horizons and objectives rather than short-term performance comparisons. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To learn more about behavioral biases that can cloud your judgment, check out the latest episode of the Choiceology podcast, hosted by Katy Milkman. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification, asset allocation and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the risk of total loss of principal invested. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are highly volatile, are not backed or guaranteed by the bank, any central bank or government; are not deposits; are not FDIC insured; are not SIPC protected; and lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. (0526-DH17) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ashley Wright and Tim van der Weyden Leveraged Finance Portfolio Managers, join Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, to explain high yield bonds and leveraged loans. They discuss how the market has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years, evolving from its reputation as a speculative ‘junk bond' space into a sophisticated, well-regulated asset class offering compelling, risk-adjusted returns. Yet despite attractive yields, recent turmoil in private credit markets has renewed investor concerns about leverage and liquidity, and in this episode, they highlight how active management, strong capital markets relationships and rigorous downside protection are key to navigating the asset class.

Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove superficial. They discuss issues including: Why Beijing increasingly sees the US as a power in relative decline, and how that is shaping Chinese strategy;  Why the structural forces pushing the US and China apart are likely to outlast any short-term diplomatic reset;  What's driving the recent improvement in China's economy, and how that could exacerbate global tensions. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham returns from client meetings in Germany to explain why those who had been expecting an economic turnaround last year have been left disappointed, but to also argue that the prevailing gloom around both the German economy and its politics has become excessive.Related content:Read: What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-would-new-pm-mean-uk-economy-and-marketsRegister: Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-energy-shock-supercharging-chinese-export-boomRead: Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulushttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/taking-stock-german-fiscal-stimulusRead: Fiscal stimulus won't fix Germany's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/fiscal-stimulus-wont-fix-germanys-economy

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Louis-Vincent Gave. They'll discuss, what's going on in the conflict and what it will mean for global markets in the coming months. https://bit.ly/42T7eeW    

If you've been losing sleep wondering whether your job will survive the AI revolution, congratulations: you're already doing more strategic thinking than most C-suites. That, in essence, is the bracing message Dr. Kelly Monahan brought to a recent Snowpal podcast conversation with founder Krish Palaniappan. Kelly, who studies the future of work and has done time in the research trenches at Deloitte, Accenture, and Meta, has the rare distinction of having started her HR career by laying people off because of robotic process automation. It is, as career origin stories go, the equivalent of a firefighter whose first day on the job involves lighting a match. Twenty years later, the technology is more polite about it (chatbots are nothing if not cheerful), but the underlying question is the same: what is a human worker actually for?

Bob responds to a new working paper from the Geo-chartalism project, which claims to offer a complete theory of the price level by combining insights from Menger, Cantillon, and Warren Mosler. Bob argues that the paper overlooks a crucial prior contribution: Mises' regression theorem, developed in The Theory of Money and Credit, which already solved the circularity problem in monetary theory that the paper claims required Mosler to resolve. Along the way, Bob also explains chartalism, Georgism, and Mises's explanation of the absolute price level.Related:Bob's Paper Critiquing Kevin Carson's Studies in Mutualist Political Economy: Mises.org/HAP548aGeorge Charles, “The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis”: Mises.org/HAP548bMMT vs. Austrian School Debate: Mises.org/HAP548cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob responds to a new working paper from the Geo-chartalism project, which claims to offer a complete theory of the price level by combining insights from Menger, Cantillon, and Warren Mosler. Bob argues that the paper overlooks a crucial prior contribution: Mises' regression theorem, developed in The Theory of Money and Credit, which already solved the circularity problem in monetary theory that the paper claims required Mosler to resolve. Along the way, Bob also explains chartalism, Georgism, and Mises's explanation of the absolute price level.Related:Bob's Paper Critiquing Kevin Carson's Studies in Mutualist Political Economy: Mises.org/HAP548aGeorge Charles, “The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis”: Mises.org/HAP548bMMT vs. Austrian School Debate: Mises.org/HAP548cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Chris Temple, Editor and Publisher of the National Investor, joins us to review the macroeconomic trends moving the markets, and his outlook on US general equities, precious metals, and various segments of the critical minerals space. Chris also recaps some of the companies he just saw in person at a number of site visit tours throughout Nevada, California, and Arizona.   We start off discussing the Fed meeting earlier this week, and a brief summary of Jerome Powell's 8-year tenure as the head of the US central bank.  Next, we pivot over to the macro backdrop for incoming Fed head, Kevin Warsh; and the results that have accrued as the result of prior monetary and fiscal policy in the US and abroad.  Chris note the persistent issues of record sovereign debt loads, higher-for-longer inflation levels, greatly spurred along by excessive money printing over Jerome Powell's term, pressures from the war in the Middle East, and the potential for slowing economic growth and more meaningful pullback in the broad US equities in the medium-term.   Switching over to gold, silver, and the precious metals equities, Chris had warned subscribers earlier in the year that things had become overbought and gotten ahead of themselves and to fade that rally, anticipating a medium-term sector pullback. He pointed to the coming corrective move in the PM sector, that was then exasperated by the war in Iran, when many felt that would be a bullish driver for gold and silver. Central banks and generalist momentum investors had come into the precious metals over the last couple years, but then some of these same groups had shifted over to selling PMs over the last couple months, putting further pressure on the sector. Generalist investors are still very much fully deployed into US equity markets and in particular the tech stocks and AI trade, and have pushed those valuations to record levels. As a result they are less inclined to be following the future potential of the commodities stocks. Chris is prepared for a future corrective move in US stock markets, that would initially drag everything else down with it, including most commodity and resource stocks. However, he pointed to the 2009 period coming out of the Great Financial Crisis, where gold and silver rebounded quicker and went up more on a performance basis than the broad markets. He expects to see a similar trend after a market liquidity event, where the PMs rebound first and to a greater degree, and the rest of the metals complex will follow.   Next we shifted over to trends within the broad basket of Critical Minerals, where Chris makes the point that one can't paint them all with a broad brush, as some have unique fundamental or macro drivers and have popped up periodically like a game of “whack-a-mole.”   He pointed out that critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel had popped and then dropped over the last few years, but that he was more animated by uranium, fertilizers, magnesium, tungsten, titanium, copper, and zinc at present.   Wrapping up, Chris highlighted the companies he just met with on his multi-state site visit tour through Nevada, California, and Arizona including:   Gunnison Copper Corp. (TSX: GCU) (OTCQB: GCUMF), Nevada Organic Phosphate Inc. (CSE: NOP) (OTCQB: NOPFF), Integra Resources Corp. (TSXV: ITR) (NYSE American: ITRG), North Peak Resources Ltd. (TSXV: NPR) (OTCQB: NPRLF), Borealis Mining Company Limited (TSXV: BOGO) (OTCQB: BORMF), Apollo Silver Corp. (TSX.V: APGO) (OTCQB: APGOF), and Arizona Gold & Silver Inc.  (TSXV: AZS) (OTCQB: AZASF).    Click here to follow along with Chris at the National Investor website.   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned, and companies profiled may be sponsors of the KE Report.    

Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI's current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA, is turning out some great economists. Guest: Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic For more from Peter McCrory: https://peter-mccrory.github.io/ Read The Macroeconomic Consequences of AI and Aging and the Productivity Puzzle Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Daniel Lacalle.  They'll discuss secular inflation, precious metals, the greater risk to Europe from the energy crisis, and much more. https://bit.ly/42Ek4O5.    

A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran's collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate.Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation risks posed by a prolonged disruption to energy supply, as well as what the UAE's departure from OPEC could mean for oil markets and what it signals in a world of intensifying US–China competition.And in a packed week for equities investors, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how key Big Tech earnings reports have landed and explains why bonds have not been performing nearly as well as equities.Related contentRead: How long can Iran hold out?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/how-long-can-iran-hold-outRead: Forecasting through the fog of warhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. In Basil's first appearance on the show he discusses the famous but flawed Citrini essay, why Silicon Valley's growth expectations aren't showing up yet in interest rates, the impact of Less Than Zero by George Selgin, what the true frictions in the economy are, the differences between Calvo and menu-cost pricing, the impact of transformational AI on emerging economies and the housing market, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 27th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Basil Halperin on X: @BasilHalperin Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:20 - Global Intelligence Crisis 00:07:04 - Transformative AI and Interest Rates 00:21:05 - Optimal Monetary Policy Under Menu Costs 00:48:13 - Transformative AI and its Macro Implications 00:55:41 - Outro

In this episode, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy Collin Martin reflect on the questions they're hearing most from investors—dominated by geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, inflation, and growing anxiety about U.S. debt and deficits. They explain why concerns about a “tipping point” for Treasuries or the dollar have not shown up in historical data—and why demand for Treasuries remains resilient even as issuance grows. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve, including what to watch in upcoming congressional hearings for Kevin Warsh and how inflation pressures complicate calls for lower rates or a smaller Fed balance sheet. Liz Ann and Collin also revisit the 60-40 portfolio debate, arguing that shifting inflation dynamics and the end of the “Great Moderation” require more nuanced diversification than simple stock‑bond splits. They close with a look at the Fed's near‑term focus on inflation over employment, key data releases like core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and consumer sentiment, and why investors should be cautious about overreacting to headline payroll numbers that are often heavily revised. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0426-6VN9) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Ole Hansen. They'll discuss what comes next in the Iran conflict, what the longer-term implications are for energy markets, what's coming in food inflation and how to trade it, and a longer term outlook for secular inflation. https://bit.ly/3OXHPNV    

Consumer habits are shifting fast, and the pressure on grocery retailers to keep up has never been greater. On the latest RETHINK Retail Podcast, R.J. Hottovy of Placer.ai and Aidan Mittra, Co-founder of OrderGrid, discuss the state of the industry and how retailers can adapt to modern demands. THE KEY TAKEAWAYS: - Shoppers are more fluid than ever: Consumers are moving freely across in-store, pickup, and delivery channels based on convenience. Consistent execution across every touchpoint is now critical. - Retail routines are expanding: Macroeconomic pressure is driving shoppers to spread spending across discounters, club stores, and convenience retailers rather than relying on a single grocery brand. - Back-end operations are the differentiator: Heavy investment in front-end digital experiences means little without reliable inventory accuracy and quality behind the scenes. - AI in grocery is finding its footing: Current applications are largely front-end focused, but the foundation being built today will determine how effectively retailers can deploy AI operationally in the future. Winning in modern grocery retail starts not with the customer-facing experience, but with the operational infrastructure powering it.

Earnings season kicks off with a mixed but generally constructive signal for markets, as Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine what corporate profits reveal about macroeconomic and market health. While equity investors tend to focus on near‑term earnings growth, Collin emphasizes that bond markets care more about long‑term cash flows and companies' ability to service debt. Aggregate corporate profits remain strong when viewed through broad measures like NIPA profits (National Income and Product Accounts), supporting investment, employment, and overall financial stability, even as borrowing costs drift higher due mainly to rising Treasury yields rather than widening credit spreads. Beneath that positive backdrop, however, stresses are emerging in lower‑quality areas of the market. Collin highlights ongoing weakness among the riskiest high‑yield borrowers, where interest coverage ratios remain below sustainable levels, raising the risk of defaults if rates stay elevated. Liz Ann connects this theme to equity markets, noting a shift toward profitability and balance‑sheet strength, particularly a reversal in small‑cap performance, where profitable companies are now outperforming non‑profitable "zombie" companies. At the same time, earnings estimates have begun to deteriorate, with negative revisions concentrated in the near term and strength increasingly isolated to a small group of large-cap technology companies. While markets appear to be betting on a resolution to the Iran conflict, risks remain tied to oil prices, inflation expectations, and consumer health, especially among lower‑income households. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks. You can read the article "Gambler's Blues: Betting Isn't Investing" on Schwab.com. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Small-cap stocks are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories. Small-Cap Company Risk. Small-cap companies may be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic events than larger, more established companies and their securities may be riskier than those issued by larger companies. The value of securities issued by small-cap companies may be based in substantial part on future expectations rather than current achievements and their prices may move sharply, especially during market upturns and downturns. In addition, small-cap companies may have limited financial resources, management experience, product lines and markets, and their securities may trade less frequently and in more limited volumes than the securities of larger companies. Further, small-cap companies may have less publicly available information and such information may be inaccurate or incomplete. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0426-4BTY) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode overview In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia continue their timely dialogue around the geopolitical turmoil impacting today's markets. Now entering its 40th day (at the time of this recording), the ongoing conflict in the Middle East still commands center stage, so Kevin and Macan discuss how it's feeding through to energy prices, market volatility, and investor behavior. They examine why markets opened 2026 “priced for perfection” (leaving little margin for error), how the current oil price shock compares with 2022's macro environment (with important differences in inflation and interest-rate starting points), and why recent equity valuation compression—particularly in the technology sector—may be creating select opportunities for investors.     Key topics & insights 1. Oil: the conflict's key transmission channel “Higher-for-longer” oil price risk: Even if the Middle East conflict resolves, Kevin and Macan suggest that oil prices may remain structurally higher than pre-conflict levels due to supply impairment and perhaps an ongoing geopolitical risk premium. Tracking evolving dynamics: These could include higher shipping insurance rates and even increased transit/toll-like costs tied to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—factors that can embed into oil prices beyond an immediate shock. Macroeconomic watchpoints: One of the critical questions still facing economists and investors alike is how higher energy prices might affect global growth rates, the likelihood of a slowdown or recession, and broader inflation levels. 2. Market volatility regime shift (not capitulation) More choppiness in less time: Since the Middle East conflict began, Kevin and Macan have observed a sharp rise in large daily moves by the S&P 500 Index (+/- 1% days), underscoring the reality of a more “headline-driven” market environment. Putting the “fear gauge” in context: While they note the VIX moving up (near ~30 at points), they emphasize that a VIX >30 is historically infrequent and that >40 has typically signaled peak fear levels, seen only in major crisis-type episodes. Markets reacting to ceasefire signals: They describe a “buy-the-dip” tendency where markets rally quickly on any perceived positive news, potentially reflecting underlying market resilience (but also risk if the conflict escalates from here). 3. 2022 comparisons: what's similar vs. what's different The main similarity: Today's geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher, combined with below-trend economic growth and still-sticky overall inflation. A key difference: The starting point for interest rates and bond yields is different now than in early 2022, which affects both bond math and the policy backdrop. Inflation framing (“three Cs”): Today's inflation setup isn't a direct replay of recent history, which was marked by multiple years of persistently elevated inflation. 4. Valuations: technology reset, select opportunities Technology premium compressed: Kevin and Macan highlight that the NASDAQ Composite Index's forward price/earnings (P/E) premium vs. the S&P 500 Index has narrowed considerably, reflecting a meaningful valuation reset in recent months. “Better earnings for a cheaper price”: The market's price (“P”) has come down, while earnings expectations (“E”) have been more resilient, implying that there may now be improved value and select opportunities in some areas of the market. Not all tech is created equal: It's important to break the broad technology sector down into its subsectors (semis, hardware, software/services) in an effort to identify potential winners, rather than just buying tech stocks indiscriminately.   Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors Treat volatility as part of the process, not a trigger to abandon it: With markets potentially “priced for perfection,” geopolitical and other surprises can spur outsized moves, so portfolios should be diversified and built to withstand volatility. Focus on the path of oil prices (level + duration): The big risk with regard to oil prices is not necessarily a short-term (e.g., one-week) spike, but rather a more sustained rise that filters into broader inflation expectations and economic growth. If sitting on cash, consider staged reentry into the market: Market uncertainty and volatility can potentially be harnessed to an investor's advantage, as they may spawn attractive opportunities to redeploy some idle cash back into the market. Reassess fixed income with today's yield cushion in mind: A bond's total return consists of both price appreciation and yield.Starting yields are higher today than in 2022, and price volatility may be offset over time by the income (yield) component. Selectively look for valuation-driven opportunities (especially in tech): Broad market sell-offs can sometimes leave no stocks unpunished, potentially offering opportunities to selectively buy high-quality companies at cheaper valuations.   Links & Resources Listen to the episode:Investments Unplugged Podcast Learn more about Manulife Investments:Manulife IM Canada Share & Subscribe If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.   For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Luke Gromen. They discuss the Iran crisis, its knock-on effects, and what it means for inflation looking ahead. https://bit.ly/4ctlZtj     

A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today's biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.Jump to:0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction2:05 Rory's Path Into Oil Analysis6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins20:50 The Double Blockade Explained27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent57:22 Where To Follow Rory And ClosingConnect with Ryan:• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enConnect with Rory Johnston:• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/• X: https://x.com/Rory_JohnstonQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Unlocking the Power of Frontier Partnerships Subscribe to our Newsletter:https://theultimatepartner.com/ebook-subscribe/Check Out UPX:https://theultimatepartner.com/experience/ In this compelling discussion from the Ultimate Partners Winter Retreat, Microsoft GM Katharine Kennedy joins Vince Menzione to break down the operating models of “Frontier Firms.” Katharine shares her incredible journey of scaling the ServiceNow partnership from zero to $1 billion in TCV and reveals her current mission: building Adobe into the next great frontier firm for Microsoft. The conversation dives deep into the necessity of AI-led innovation, the critical importance of placing trust at the center of every technological stack, and why traditional quarterly business reviews are being replaced by real-time, constant connectivity. Whether you are an ISV, SDC, or channel partner, this session provides a roadmap for navigating the tectonic shifts in the AI ecosystem through organizational alignment and shared vision. Key Takeaways Frontier firms integrate AI up and down the UI, agent, and data layers while evolving their internal operating systems. Successful partnerships require a shared vision at the highest level that melds two mission statements into a single belief system. The traditional QBR is becoming outdated, replaced by real-time, constant communication across engineering and product teams. Trust must be the primary pillar of AI development, supported by core principles like fairness, reliability, and accountability. Leading with co-innovation and customer-centric data solutions is more effective than leading strictly with revenue goals. Strategic use of the Microsoft Marketplace remains a “hidden gem” for achieving scale and high-velocity growth. https://youtu.be/OU22MIfs-1A If you're ready to lead through change, elevate your business, and achieve extraordinary outcomes through the power of partnership—this is your community. At Ultimate Partner® we want leaders like you to join us in the Ultimate Partner Experience – where transformation begins. Key Tags: Frontier Firms, SDC, Microsoft GM, Adobe Partnership, ServiceNow, AI Operating Model, Responsible AI, Co-innovation, Partner Value Chain, Organizational Alignment, Microsoft Marketplace, TCV, Data Sovereignty, AI Agents, Adobe Firefly, Azure, Ecosystem Growth, Digital Transformation, AI Governance, Strategic Partnerships, Tech Leadership. Transcript: Katharine Kennedy Vince Menzione: [00:00:00] Honestly, it’s people. Yes, with agents. Um, and I know we hear that and it’s very like, oh, what does it mean? Are we really using it? I cannot tell you how many agents I use in a day. We just finished Ultimate Partners Winter Retreat here in beautiful Boca to a sold out crowd. Come join me now for a compelling discussion on the impacts of the tectonic shifts we’re all seeing. We, we’ve talked about MSP, we’ve talked about channel. We’ve talked about marketplace. We haven’t really dug deep into the SDC conversation, and I still, that doesn’t roll off my tongue. I still say ISV in my own mind, but the software development corporations, um, we’ve had several executives from that, from that world. Sandy Gupta has been. Um, many time guests, uh, at, at, at our events and we really wanted to double click. And I was so fortunate to meet Katherine Kennedy several months ago and learned about what [00:01:00] she’s doing and what the work that she’s driving. So I wanna invite her on stage ’cause we’re gonna have a very intimate conversation by Yeah, we call these so great to have you here. And, uh, you’re a GM at Microsoft, which is a big deal, by the way. A lot of people don’t know that. Thank you. And you’re running, uh, two of, I’d say two of the most significant partners within the Microsoft ecosystem. I would say obviously two. Now. Just one. Okay. We’re doubling down on focus. So nice to meet everybody. I, I wish there was a fire ’cause it did. What you Well come on. This goes off heat by the way. We get back off a little bit. This goes off our, so all good. So tell us, give us your, yeah. Give us your background and your role. Katharine Kennedy: Sure. So Catherine Kennedy. Nice to meet you all. Um, I’m a GM at Microsoft previously overseeing both the ServiceNow and the Adobe practice. Um, spent the last four years building ServiceNow too. What now our previous guests got to refer to as our REO, you know, exciting, uh, big growth [00:02:00] partnership. Um, so we took that from, for them from $0 in terms of shared revenue to a billion dollars in TCV. Um, and they have one of the largest Macs now with Microsoft. And we did that over the course of three years. So we’ll talk a little bit about. Um, the mindset, uh, and the operating models and things that we implemented with ServiceNow. Um, and then at the time, um, they asked me to take on Adobe as well. And when we saw the opportunity at Adobe, we said, wow, we really need to focus here. And so I have the privilege of being able to focus on Adobe this year. And, um. What I’m most excited about is the ecosystem and the ecosystem opportunity with Adobe as we build them into the next frontier firm or Microsoft. Vince Menzione: And of course we use the term spark, the ecosystem, so yes. Um, so let’s, let’s dive in [00:03:00] here. Use the term mindset. I was thinking about mindset. Market shift, frontier Firm, how do those things align together? Microsoft has been talking, I mean, Judson up on stage and Ignite talking about frontier firms. Nina’s talked about frontier firms. This is a shift in how organizations operate. Yes. In for some, yes. Uh, for others. I was thinking, what are you seeing across the SDC community specifically where you’ve managed before, where you’re managing now, but with ServiceNow and Adobe as an examples? What defines a company that’s truly making this leap? Katharine Kennedy: So as we’re looking at these frontier firms, uh, especially in the S-D-C-I-C spaces, we’re looking at, um, how do they implement AI up and down their stack, but then across the operating system, um, and. I refer to it in our business as the partnership value chain. ’cause we look at our SDCs and ISVs as partners. Um, and so the partner operating model between Microsoft and in this [00:04:00] case, Adobe or ServiceNow, has to be solely in lockstep and moving at warp speed. It’s as, as we’ve been talking about all day, it’s just moving so fast and so the tighter. We’re connected. The Cohesity across the company, um, is absolutely critical, but it’s AI up and down, AI across, um, and what I mean by that is, uh. That’s from the UI layer to the agent layer down to the data layer. So unlocking all of the layers of the stack. And then across the operating model, how are we empowering each executive to buy in on that North star or that strategy that we have jointly? And then how do we drive that operationally to execute at the field level? And that’s. Probably the biggest undertaking, um, I’ve ever done because it’s really you, your team becomes, uh, [00:05:00] these we’re like ants running between two giant companies. I mean, it’s just back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And um, that’s really the art and the science of it is that honestly it’s people. Yes. Um, and I know we hear that and it’s very like, oh, what does it mean? Are we really using it? I cannot tell you how many agents I use in a day. It’s truly remarkable. Vince Menzione: You mentioned North Star, so I wanted to Yeah. Can I double click on it? Katharine Kennedy: Please do. Yes. Happy to. Vince Menzione: Yeah. I think about mission and purpose and all that tying into North Star. Are, are you implying that an organization needs to get its North Star, right? First and then how, how, and what, what are most of these organizations you’re seeing today, not the ones you manage, but other organizations in the SDC portfolio? Like where are they in terms of the continuum? How are, how are they moving along and what’s your guidance to them? Katharine Kennedy: It’s a good question. So I’ll start by saying my observation, my opinion is [00:06:00] as I’m looking across the companies that are successful and the ones who are yet to be successful, um, the key differentiator is that there is a shared vision at the highest level of the company that drives all the way down to the field. And what I mean by that is we’re taking two mission statements and we’re melding them together. Then we’re creating a belief system and it becomes a cultural shift across two companies versus, Hey, we’re gonna have all of these siloed, tactical, yeah. Operating units and they’re gonna do their own thing and maybe they’ll be successful over here. Maybe they’re doing something different over here, but we’re really. I think I heard Nina say this also, we’re pulling that red thread through the company. Yes. Um, which is critical. And I’ve seen so many companies just show up for the revenue. And yes, that’s an absolute outcome and it’s a [00:07:00] tremendous outcome if you do it right, but you have to do it right. You have to pull that red thread and you have to have every single part of the. Partner value chain buying into this strategy and this North Star, and if they don’t, if one piece of that chain is not bought in, you fail. Yeah. Vince Menzione: Organizational alignment is what you’re saying and what, what I’m hearing is in order, in terms of getting the AI Strat, the North Star aligned. Yes. You’ve gotta get the, I call the C-Suite aligned. Yes. You need to get all the functions of the organization aligned to the thread that you talked about. Yes. And then what does that look like? What does that North Star look like? What is it, what is the ideal example of what the North Star would look like? I’m, I’m a frontier firm. I brought in on ai, music agent ai. I’m doing all the things that we’ve talked about earlier. Katharine Kennedy: Yes. Um, so I think it, so operationally, um, it’s moving the operational rhythm from what used to be [00:08:00] qbr. Frankly, I think that’s outdated. Yes, it is. It is real time, constant communication. And yes, there will be checkpoints and they could be weekly, they could be monthly, they could be quarterly, but this is just real time constant communication because the pace of business, the pace of innovation is going so fast. We have to have that direct line of communication product to product team. We have to have that direct line of communication, engineering to engineering, because with everything going in on. Everything going on in the macroeconomic climate today, especially given concerns around sovereignty. Um, I run a global business, so we have customers saying, Hey, I don’t wanna host my data in a place where I don’t align with the values. That’s a real situation. That was actually a topic at Davos, as you mentioned, um, Nina. And so, um, we’re rapidly addressing these concerns with our customers and meeting our customers where they are. [00:09:00] Um, but it’s that real time constant connectivity. Um, and we’re frankly. We’re seeing it across the board. Um, but the operating model has to change. We have to look at more advanced, modern models, uh, for these partnership businesses to sustain in this next wave of transformation. Frankly, Vince Menzione: you know, it’s, so, you talked about values? Yes. This is, this leads into another conversation, right? When we talk about ai, we talk about, we talk about AI and the use, use cases. We skip over things like values and trust and governance. Katharine Kennedy: Oh, good segue. This is, this is my passion, please. Oh, I get so worked up about this. Good. So I, I had the privilege of, um, sitting, uh, with our SLC community a couple weeks ago, and, uh, they introduced, oh, here’s our amazing new, uh, pitch. We were just [00:10:00] speaking about it in the back actually. And, and it is, it’s amazing. And, uh, they said, do you have any feedback? And I was like, oh. And I waited and I saw everybody, every, you know, oh, we need to change this or tweak that. And I, and I waited. And then at the last moment I stood up. I was like, okay, I gotta say it. I was like, you say intelligence and trust. I, this is a small tweak, but trust has to be first, foremost, first, last, center, everything. Trust has to be everything. And, um, and I truly mean that. And I think, you know. Of all the companies I’ve worked for and I’ve worked for quite a few, um, Microsoft is the company that I believe in the most that can do the most good in society and in the global. Macroeconomic economy, a anything right in the world, in your communities. Um, and so one of the things that really struck me, and I keep coming back to with Microsoft and the, the topic of trust is how Microsoft, [00:11:00] um, was first to the table in this, in this, um, moment of ai. You know, introduction a few years ago to say, Hey, we need a set of core values and ethics and principles that we’re all gonna, we’re all gonna marshal around and I haven’t heard it as much recently, and now it’s coming back. And, uh, you know, the, the six core principles that Microsoft used is, I’m just gonna tell you right now, our fairness, reliability and safety, privacy and security, inclusivity, um, transparency and accountability. And it’s not. Just six principles that you see on a poster in the offices. These are embedded, again, back to the operating model across every single aspect of our business. So within our product, within our engineering, even just in our collaboration tools, you could be sending a teams message and you’ll get a notification, Hey, this is not aligned to the Microsoft. Core [00:12:00] values of ai. And so there are gates and governance and guardrails built into every layer of our technology stack and then across the company in our operating rhythms. And that is what gets me so excited and gets me up at, at out of bed in the morning. Um. I actually got a call from Sila. No one wants a call from Sila. Does anybody know Sila? Uh, yeah. Yes. Okay. That’s our legal, that’s our legal team. Legal affairs. Sila. Yeah. No one wants that call. Uh, I actually, I got so excited. I was like, are you calling about responsible ai? ’cause I was one of the first, um, I was one of the first to raise my hand to say. We will sign up. Was it Brad Smith calling you? Oh gosh. Oh, that would be a dream. I think he’s so, I’m, I love him. I think he’s so cool. Um, I love that you actually, sorry, side, I’m gonna take you on a side tour. Next slide. Um, my favorite thing to do is pull up the news and you’re seeing something from the Prime Minister in, you know, Germany and Brad [00:13:00] Smith’s in the foreground Yes. Of every photo. You’re just like, wow, we’re influencing at such a global. Um, base that I could just, it’s hard to wrap your head around sometimes, but, so anyways, going back, I’m gonna take us back to trust. Um, please. Vince Menzione: Well, I just think we need to apply it back to ai, right? Because it is so important. It is. It is. These agents are out there and if they’re not governed and if you don’t Yeah, yeah. Katharine Kennedy: I’m so, so, yeah, thank you. Keeping me on track. So, so why I am excited about it is, is because, um. As we’re going out into our communities, um, we’re here in the southeast and one of the biggest issues that comes up over and over again is, how do I trust that AI is not gonna learn off my data? How am I gonna trust that it’s telling me the right information? And so on and so forth. And that’s when I get to this great conversation about trust and our responsible AI pact and, um. This is, this is truly what I mean, that it can be a force [00:14:00] multiplier, but it can be a force for good. And if you don’t have those guardrails and that governance and those principles aligned across the companies. You fall down, right? You fall down with the customers, you fall down with the organizations you’re serving. And so going back to our North Star two, we align there, we align with the values and the ethics, and then we can start to really build a business together. And that’s how we were able to do it so fast. And so, um, at such scale, at such global scale, um, with. ServiceNow, but now we’re going to take a mature partner in Adobe and we’re gonna take them to the frontier in a way you haven’t seen before. So. Just a little commercial. Adobe is gonna be announcing their Adobe marketing agent. I love it as GA next month. So they are a frontier firm for us. Yes, very exciting round of applause for Adobe there. For Adobe. Yeah. And more to come. So we’ll be [00:15:00] having, uh, their firefly, uh, video models coming out on Azure and available through Marketplace as well, um, coming soon. So lots of exciting things happening. Vince Menzione: Sounds exciting. So let’s talk about those partner big wins that you’re saying. Give us some examples of those. Katharine Kennedy: Now are you talking about from a Microsoft and Adobe co-innovation perspective? Yes, from the co-innovation perspective. Okay. Yeah. Um, so from a co-innovation perspective, this is. This is a labor of love. Um, I approach it in a very disciplined manner. The way that we look at, um, these frontier firms is we’re leading with co-innovation versus leading with revenue. And it’s a, it’s, it’s a paradigm shift that takes everyone to buy in back to my earlier point, but also, um, the hardest part is. Teaching companies, um, to do things differently. Uh, so we start with [00:16:00] engineering and product. And actually before we get there, we start with customer and we sit with our customers. We understand what our customers are asking for. We’re understanding the value that they need unlocked, and typically it’s at the data data layer. And so what we’re doing is we’re seeing, okay, what are the data things? What are the data silos that need to be unlocked? And so we start to kind of build up from there, taking the customer perspective. Then we sit with engineering and product and we say, okay, what do we have on the truck today? How can we elevate this to an AI led AI first motion that meets our customers where they are in their AI journey? And delivers value and business outcomes day one versus, hey, we have to go through this laborous process. One of the other things we’re seeing is forward deployed engineers. Um, so thinking about, Hey, how do we sit with our customers and start architecting. What they need to address their business challenges today, um, because AI [00:17:00] can solve a lot of this, right? And so it’s a really interesting model shift that we’re seeing across the board within Microsoft, within our largest ISVs, and within our customer and our, um, ecosystem community with our GSIs, our sis, as well as our channel. Vince Menzione: So I know we were. You’ve had a lot. We, we had Jason up here talking about marketplace. Yes. And Jason Grey, Ja. Oh no, Jason. R Jason. R Jason. Yeah. We’ve had Jason Grey. He’s had Jason Grey. Yes. Well, we, um, you’re, you ServiceNow got called out in that last set session. I know. I was thinking about marketplace and co-selling. Yes. And then ecosystem. So I wanna like tie those three things together if that’s possible with you. Like what are you seeing from a best practice perspective. Obviously ServiceNow has been a top a top partner. We’re starting to see a lot of, well, channel D, channel [00:18:00] resellers, and the like. What are you seeing from a best practice perspective and is there yes. Central opportunities there? Katharine Kennedy: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Okay. Three things. Um, one is AI led innovation. First and foremost, you gotta have the solution. You gotta have it. If you don’t have the solution, you don’t have something to sell. Second is a, um, AI led go to market hero motion. And what I mean by that, so in the, I’ll use ServiceNow as a, as a. Example ServiceNow. We created a, the first, uh, copilot plus, um, ServiceNow assist agent to agent go to market hero story. It landed really well with our customers and so we started to build off of that and we integrated across, um, up and down the stack. Like I mentioned, the data layer, the agent layer, and the ui. Um, and our customers were thrilled. They were like, wow. What else can we do with this? Can we unlock HR with this? Can we unlock. [00:19:00] What else can we do? Finance? Can we do finance? And so we started to see these, these moments in time where our customers were taking the technology and taking it to places we just hadn’t even thought about yet. Um, so I would say those two. And then the third would be, uh, making sure that we’re enabling the field. In a way that they know that story, they can tell that story, and then they have access to people to support that story. Um, and then wrap that in marketplace leverage micro, uh, marketplace as a scale motion. And now I know we still have opportunities to continue to improve around marketplace. Um, but we’ve come a long way and we’re seeing tremendous growth and scale out of this engine. So it’s, it’s definitely a hidden, um. I would say honestly, it’s still a hidden gem in the Microsoft. Uh. Bag, if you will. Vince Menzione: $300 billion in total.[00:20:00] Katharine Kennedy: Yeah, I seriously, yeah, but not anymore, I should say. Yes, I’ve been to Singing from the Rooftop. Yes. Vince Menzione: And you’re gonna be back this afternoon, right? Yes. A session with Ashley, so, oh, okay. I think, was it with Ash? Maybe? Oh know, maybe. I don’t know. Maybe. I’d be delighted it’ll be back the same. I’m happy to be back. I wanna make sure, I do wanna make sure, we’ll, we’ll cover some more of this there. Katharine Kennedy: And then the last thing, yeah. Shared KPIs. Yes. Shared KPIs. We gotta track it. We gotta be accountable. So get your vision aligned. Get your vision, get your organizations across all of the disciplines aligned. Yes. And then have a set of shared KPIs and owners for each of those KPIs. Yes. Right. And govern it. And govern it. Govern it, yeah. Report up to the CEO on a weekly basis, on a monthly basis, on a quarterly basis. I started reporting up to our CEO and he was like. What is she doing? He’s like, this business is going really, it’s growing fast. What is she doing? Can we do this somewhere else though? Um, it’s, you know, making sure people know the story, um, [00:21:00] and everyone’s buying in and they’re accountable. It’s, um, it’s a simple thing, but it’s powerful. Thank you for having me. Vince Menzione: Thank you so much. I really, yeah. Appreciate it. Thank you everyone. Alright, thanks. You don’t forget, ultimate Partner Live is coming soon, May 11th through the 13th in beautiful Bellevue, Washington. I hope to see you there.

Send us Fan MailGlobalization and global trade have been a top topic of discussion of late. In this episode I talk with Chris Brigham, a Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein, on their recent research piece Trading Places - The Future of Global Trade. We discuss the key findings of the research and if the current state of the Middle East and Iran impact his conclusions. We discuss how companies are thinking about supply chains and what investors should do within portfolios. Chris also shares his views of currency and the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency.With any questions or comments, or to discuss your own financial situation, I can be reached at marc.penziner@bernstein.com or 212-969-6655.The information presented and opinions expressed are solely the views of the podcast host commentator and their guest speaker(s).  AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this podcast. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Adam Rozencwajg. They discuss, crude oil, food & fertilisers, uranium, and gold after the Iran conflict. https://bit.ly/4vkd1XX     

Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio.Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump's Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee in 2016 before serving briefly as White House Communications Director.Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

What did you think of todays show??We sat in a room with some of the biggest lenders in the country last week. What we heard wasn't reassuring. From rising appraisal fraud to (not) shocking statements from a loan officer, this episode breaks down what's really happening inside the lending industry and how it could impact real estate investors.Topics discussed:Introduction (00:00)Two concerning trends in the lending industry (01:46)Appraisal fraud and the problem with CDAs (05:25)Why lenders, LOs, and appraisers might be lying to you (09:51)Unrated securitizations and changes in DSCR lending (12:49)Macroeconomic risk and parallels to 2008 (15:11)AI, unemployment, and the future of consumerism (16:24)Iran, oil prices, and Mike's Medicare theory (21:53)Why rates aren't coming down and what to do about your debt now (25:38)Portfolio architecture: what to buy, what to hold, and what to watch out for (27:59)Where the lending industry is headed (34:29)Sign up to join the FREE Scale Community! https://collectingkeys.com/Want deeper breakdowns like this every week? Subscribe to the Collecting Keys newsletter! https://collectingkeys.com/newsletter/Follow us on Instagram!https://www.instagram.com/collectingkeyspodcast/https://www.instagram.com/mike_invests/https://www.instagram.com/investormandan/https://www.instagram.com/dylan_does_dealsThis episode was produced by Podcast Boutique https://www.podcastboutique.com

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin focus on the market and economic ripple effects stemming from the war in Iran—particularly through energy markets, inflation, interest rates, and investor sentiment. Liz Ann and Collin begin by addressing a common misconception: that the U.S. being a net exporter of oil insulates the domestic economy from geopolitical energy shocks. Liz Ann explains that oil is priced globally, meaning higher global prices still feed directly into U.S. energy costs, inflation, and market volatility.  Collin then turns to the bond market, explaining that while Treasury yields have risen, the magnitude of recent moves is modest by historical standards and consistent with Schwab's outlook. He outlines three key forces keeping yields elevated: sticky inflation, rising fiscal deficits and debt issuance, and upward pressure from higher global yields.  Liz Ann also explains what it means for markets to be “oversold,” emphasizing that technical indicators describe conditions—not timing signals—and that markets can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods depending on fundamentals. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions S&P 500® Index-Measures the performance of 500 leading publicly traded U.S. companies from a broad range of industries. It is a float-adjusted market-capitalization weighted index. (0426-WMAC) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Matt Barrie & Dr. Anas Alhajji. They discuss the latest developments in AI, their impact on private credit markets, and why emerging pricing models could trigger a dot-com–scale market disruption. https://bit.ly/47Ca0Z5    

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. They will discuss the Iran conflict, the return to a multi-polar world order, the outlook for persistent inflation, the breakdown in private credit markets and much more. https://bit.ly/4rZghp4    

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Simon White. They discuss the risk-off playbook, food price inflation, the breakdown in private credit, and much more. https://bit.ly/3PukOlC    

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jim Bianco & Dr. Anas Alhajji. They will discuss everything from the geopolitical situation in Iran to oil prices to precious metals, and much more. https://bit.ly/40MGTyt    

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Matt Loszak. They'll discuss big picture of what the advanced nuclear industry needs to  do in order to bring the cost of nuclear energy down to the cost of energy from fossil fuels. https://bit.ly/4aR4ovZ