Podcasts about Macroeconomics

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy.Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front.Related contentThe implications of a renewed closure of the Straithttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/implications-renewed-closure-straitGlobal Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergencehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/us-strength-points-renewed-policy-divergence-0UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-burnham-government-will-policy-ambition-collide-economic-realityWhy Burnham will struggle to revive UK growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/why-burnham-will-struggle-revive-uk-growth

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Dr. Anas Alhajji. They'll discuss Anas's review on how we got into this conflict and why he still believes that it was the goal of the United States to close Hormuz. https://bit.ly/4wKIgvh    

Recording date: 11th July 2026Olive Resource Capital delivered an approximate 15% return in the first half of 2026, outperforming many peers in a more moderate market environment compared to the strong gains of 2025. Returns were further supported by three portfolio company acquisitions, two of which closed the period, highlighting the role of opportunistic corporate activity in performance. The firm emphasized that such events are beneficial but not a reliable foundation for long-term strategy.The commodity landscape in H1 2026 was marked by a clear rotation. Lithium and oil emerged as the strongest performers, with oil remaining resilient despite price volatility and lithium rebounding after years of underinvestment. In contrast, gold, silver, and platinum group metals lagged after leading the previous year, undergoing what management described as a necessary consolidation phase.Despite weak underlying commodity prices, Olive's strongest gains came from precious metals equities. This divergence reflects the firm's focus on company-specific catalysts—such as mergers and acquisitions, resource updates, and technical studies—rather than direct exposure to commodity price movements. Holdings like K92 Mining exemplify this strategy, with growth-driven revaluation potential independent of gold price trends.Macroeconomic conditions remained broadly supportive, with strong global manufacturing activity and continued monetary stimulus, although reduced liquidity support from China is being monitored. Geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran, influenced energy markets but were viewed as temporary disruptions with longer-term implications for supply chains and energy demand.Heading into the second half of 2026, the firm is cautiously deploying elevated cash reserves into energy and uranium, driven by themes such as AI-related power demand, electrification, and favorable seasonal trends. It continues to avoid West African development projects due to rising jurisdictional risks, instead favoring opportunities in North and South America where regulatory conditions are more stable and investment visibility is stronger.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week.Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both sides of the Atlantic can continue to hold up and where we think the consensus is wrong on the outlook for interest rates.Also on the show, in an exclusive excerpt from a recent online client briefing on AI, Chief Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explains where the technology's impact is already showing up in the data, and what happens to the global economy if AI's promised productivity gains never materialise.Related contentCapital Economics Key Issues: AIDrop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Adam Parker. They discuss the U.S equity market. https://bit.ly/4aK7d1u        

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim interviewed Manoj Pradhan, Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics and author. They discuss demographics, Baumol's cost disease, fiscal dominance, and the bind the Fed is in amid high debt and secular inflation. WealthVest is a leading wholesaler of fixed, fixed-indexed, and registered index-linked annuities to financial professionals. We're a partner to thousands of advisors by providing annuity planning technology, retirement income planning, practice management, market and industry trends, and annuity case management. Our team of dedicated wholesalers and annuity case managers helps advisors provide the best annuity outcomes.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Matt LueckShow Editing and Production: Matt LueckDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A category of guest I really enjoy speaking with though are those who are on the way up. People like Holly Ransom or Kal Klanznig or Vanessa Pirotta who are clearly going places - it's a thrill to spend a little bit of time with them before they accomplish even more. Today's guest doesn't have the public or social media profile of those three, but I hope that is to change in next little while. Timothy Neal is a senior scientia fellow in the Department of Economics at the University of New South Wales and also the Institute of Climate Risk and Response. Earlier this year he was named Australia's leading researcher in probability and statistics with applications and in 2021 was the recipient of the prestigious Paul Bourke Award for Early Career Research by the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia.What does that mean he's an expert in then for those less initiated with economics, statistics and social science - it means his work at the intersection of climate change, casual inference and econometrics is resulting in entirely new ways by which to understand how much we already have and will continue to lose as a result of a changing climate and our civilisation's collective commitment in dismissing and avoiding the reality of the losses, impacts, damages and harms that have arrived and are now locked in for decades to come.Tim's work has re-shaped how I think, talk about and worked on physical climate risk - and his work with UNSW colleagues Ben Newell - a former guest on episode 87 - and Andy Pitman - in 2025 dropped a grenade into conventional economic thinking and modelling regarding climate change. How can we know that human activity has fundamentally altered the chemical, biological and physical reality of our atmosphere and still see company after company, regulator after regulator, reserve bank after reserve bank tell us that their numbers are telling us there is nothing to see here? How can a company write that climate change represents a material financial risk to their business then claim their scenario analysis process presents a near-zero loss future due to climate change? It makes no sense. Tim's work has helped me understand why that is, what needs to change in economics to redress this and how all of us as lay people can better engage with the real but complex reality of attempting to understand what disaster after disaster means for economic performance nationally and across the globe.In this chat we get into Tim's recent work on economic losses already able to be quantified and mounting up just in NSW, his seminal work on global macroeconomic loss results as well as what his research into panic buying and hoarding at the onset of Covid may have in stall for us as we face a future certain to be more volatile, dangerous and disaster-prone.Some extra reading relevant to this episode from our friends at Altiorem. Making the case: Macroeconomic risk & portfolio impact: A tool for system-level investorsThe macroeconomic impact of climate change: Global vs. local temperatureDiscourses of climate delayCheck out Planet Protein and receive 10% off your first order when you sign up. Send me a messageThanks for listening. Follow Finding Nature on Instagram

“If you can't hit 0.6 ACH on a brand-new build, you probably shouldn't be building.”Let's stop tip-toeing around the reality of the Australian housing market. We are throwing up volume-built boxes and high-density apartments that are practically end-of-life before they've even seen their first winter. We sat down with Linden Thorley, architect, Passive House designer, and chair of the Australian Passive House Association Retrofit Committee.We take a look into why retrofitting the existing 9.5 million homes in Australia is the single biggest business opportunity for trades over the next decade. Linden walks us through the differences between a cosmetic renovation and a high-performance retrofit, detailing how his team utilises the PHPP (Passive House Planning Package) to model data and manage moisture, insulation, and ventilation risks case-by-case.We don't hold back on the real pain points of the industry either. We talk about the skyrocketing costs of business insurance, why Australian labour rates are fundamentally shifting project costs, and how to structure building contracts using provisional sums for airtightness so builders aren't crushed by unexpected site variations.Linden also breaks down his frustrations with legacy bank valuations that prioritise bloated 300-square-meter floor plans over highly efficient, smaller family homes.Finally, we hit the political wall: how heritage advisors and council planners are actively preventing energy efficiency upgrades, and the clever, practical drawing tricks CHAPTER MARKERS00:00 – Introduction02:08 – The Passive House Association Retrofit Committee & Playbook04:12 – Finding the Ideal Market: How Long Does the Shift Take?05:45 – Passive House as a Design-Agnostic Calculation Tool07:11 – Can a House Be Great If It Doesn't Reach Certified EnerPHit?09:00 – Retrofitting Multi-Story Blocks vs. Standard Residential10:38 – Managing Airtightness Expectations with the Builder13:36 – How to Contract for Airtightness: The Provisional Sum Solution15:21 – Dealing with Double Brick and Suspended Timber Floors16:23 – The Spray Foam Debate in Subfloors vs. Walls18:41 – The New Build Advantage vs. Retrofit Blind Spots19:16 – A Case Study: Turning a 25 ACH House into an 8 ACH Home22:27 – Threading Centralized MVHR Systems Through Bulkheads23:28 – The Necessity of the ECI Process for Architects26:16 – Why Don't We Just Knock Them All Down?27:43 – Renovation vs. Extension vs. Retrofit29:47 – Do We Overcomplicate the Carbon Conversation?31:14 – Lessons from Toronto: The 100 Macnab High-Rise Retrofit32:38 – Drawing the Line: When to Demolish an Existing Fabric37:28 – Forcing Council's Hand with Legal NCC Clauses39:34 – Is Passive House Actually a Premium-Priced Product?41:11 – Breaking Down the True Cost of Australian Site Labour44:46 – Linden's Fire Loss & Installing His Own INTELLO Membrane48:26 – Thermal Envelope vs. High-End Cabinetry53:03 – The Intensity Slump on Modern Australian Building Sites55:26 – Overheads, Insurance Hikes, and Free Market Economics57:41 – The 3-Story Walk-Up: How Codes Limit Small Footprint Living58:21 – Why Banks Hate Small Homes and Force Massive Floorplates01:01:45 – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and Building for the Top 10%01:08:37 – MEGT Mindful Moment: Harnessing the Un-Jaded Apprentice Mindset01:11:16 – Connect with Linden ThorleyLINKS:Our Sponsors:Pro Clima - https://mindful-builder.captivate.fm/proclimaMEGT - https://mindful-builder.captivate.fm/megtConnect with us on Instagram: @themindfulbuilderpodConnect with Hamish:Instagram: @sanctumhomesWebsite: www.yoursanctum.com.au/Connect with Matt: Instagram: @carlandconstructionsWebsite: www.carlandconstructions.com/Mentioned in this episode:Proclima Sponsor

For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow.  On this week's The Weekly Briefing, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027, what to expect before the plunge and whether the Fed will play a role in the rally's demise. Also on the show, Climate and Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain discusses why our long-standing forecast that gold prices would retreat from their record highs is playing out, and why prices have further to fall from here.Related content:Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implicationsAsset Allocation Outlook: The AI equity boom reaching its final inningshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-outlook/ai-equity-boom-reaching-its-final-inningsCommodities Outlook: Beyond Hormuz – the path back to an oil gluthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-outlook/beyond-hormuz-path-back-oil-glut

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They discuss the Hormuz crisis, China's role in tempering global oil demand, and the outlook for what comes next as negotiations evolve in the middle east. https://bit.ly/4eIFMaO    

How are institutional investors navigating today's housing market? In this episode of The Investment Conversation, Eric Phillipps (Head of Private Real Estate Investments at Lord Abbett) breaks down the long-term fundamentals, macroeconomic data, and technology driving modern real estate allocations.

In this Sunday special edition of The KE Report, I sat down with Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets and Editor of the Marc to Market website, to unpack a whirlwind week for global macroeconomics, geopolitics effects on the oil sector, central bank policy and how that factors into interest rates and currencies, and international markets.   Key Discussion Points: Strait of Hormuz Geopolitics and The Oil Price Response: We discuss the significant drop in crude oil prices over the last couple of weeks as a market response to the MOU signed between the US and Iran, but counterbalance the conversation with the renewed tensions to end the week and heading into the weekend. Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy: Two weeks after Fed Chair Warsh's debut meeting, the market is pricing in a hawkish trajectory for the end of the year, which is affecting the short-end of the yield curve, while the longer-dated treasury yields are flattening. Mark weighs in on the key takeaways in the trends. The Surging US Dollar Index: Why the dollar is breaking out of its year-long range, achieving new highs against the Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar, and defying widespread expectations of a decline. MAG-7 Leadership Rolls Over: We've seen many of the megacap tech stocks rolling over the last couple of weeks, and dissect whether this is healthy rotation into other sectors, or a more worrisome sign. SpaceX IPO Fallout For The Space Stocks:  We review the potential frothy market sentiment read of high profile IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic, and what this means for the space sector valuations dropping most of this year. Mark points out that the increased issuance of shares overall in the market data means that the same money is chasing even more paper, and causing selling in some sectors to rotate into the new trending stories. International Market Movers:  We discuss interest rates, currencies, and stock markets abroad from Europe to Asia, and the trends and moves by specific countries that have Marc's attention.   Click here to visit Marc's site – Marc To Market – https://www.marctomarket.com/   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.  

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders sits down with Keith McCullough, founder of Hedgeye, to revisit his “quads” framework—a model that categorizes market environments based on the direction of economic growth and inflation. McCullough emphasizes process over prediction, arguing that investors should focus on the momentum of these variables to adapt to rapidly shifting market conditions. The conversation explores a volatile macro backdrop marked by geopolitical shocks, leadership changes at the Fed, and evolving market structure. McCullough explains how increased instability has accelerated market cycles, requiring a more nimble, data-driven approach. He outlines his view that inflation likely peaked and is set to decelerate, setting up a shift toward disinflation, and potentially slower growth, over the coming quarters. They also discuss implications for asset allocation, including declining bond yields globally, a rotation away from mega-cap dominance, and opportunities in under-owned, rate-sensitive sectors like housing and real estate. McCullough highlights growing risks tied to market concentration, new equity supply (including major IPOs), and speculative activity, while stressing the importance of disciplined, rules-based investing. The episode concludes with a discussion of investor behavior, with McCullough urging listeners to detach from narratives and emotions, and instead rely on process, data, and adaptability in an increasingly fast-moving market environment. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To keep up with Keith McCullough, you can follow him on X: @KeithMcCullough On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Investors in ETFs should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus via 1-800-435-4000.  Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Currencies are speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the risk of total loss of principal invested. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are highly volatile, are not backed or guaranteed by the bank, any central bank or government; are not deposits; are not FDIC insured; are not SIPC protected; and lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have.  Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.  All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. Options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Certain requirements must be met to trade options through Schwab. Please read the Options Disclosure Document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" before considering any option transaction.  The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  The book Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of 30 semiconductor companies. (0626-2U7S) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week's US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how hawkish the Fed may need to remain to bring inflation back to target.Also on the show, with Andy Burnham's 'coronation' as the UK's next prime minister looking increasingly likely, what do we know about the new government's plans? Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team discuss the fiscal constraints that will limit a Burnham government's spending ambitions, while explaining why falling inflation could allow the Bank of England to deliver much more monetary easing than markets currently expect.Related contentUK Economic Outlook: Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cutshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economic-outlook/fall-inflation-20-2027-trigger-rate-cutsCapital Economics Eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. They discuss the Hormuz crisis, Fed policy under new leadership, budget deficits, the AI trade, and AI's mounting demands on energy markets. https://bit.ly/4oJoM7q    

In this episode of Investments Unplugged, with the halfway point of the year fast approaching, host Kevin Headland is joined by two guests—Global Chief Economist Alex Grassino and Senior Macro Strategist Dominique Lapointe—who share their midyear 2026 global macroeconomic outlook. Alex and Dominique recap the action-packed first half of the year, highlighted by the unforeseen Middle East conflict that erupted in late February, and then lay out a “macro-to- markets” roadmap of sorts for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Among the timely, top-of- mind topics they address are: • Global growth resilience, despite Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks; • Evolving global inflation risks, including mounting AI-related demand pressures; • Policy implications for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks; • Portfolio positioning considerations across global equity and fixed-income markets. Key topics & insights 1. First-half surprises: geopolitical turmoil, corporate earnings, and AI leadership • The Middle East conflict has lasted longer than most observers expected, creating a sliding scale of potential outcomes that investors have had to price in. • Corporate earnings expectations and results rebounded quickly after some softness seen in late 2025, helping to support U.S. and global markets. • U.S. equities linked to AI have continued to outperform, with market leadership reconcentrating around AI-/hardware-related themes. 2. Macro backdrop: resilient U.S. and global economies, uneven regional impacts • Despite the Middle East conflict and resulting oil-price shock, the U.S. economy appeared to navigate the first half with “relative ease” and notable resilience. • Other regions' economies are being impacted in different ways by the conflict, depending on such factors as whether they are energy exporters or importers. 3. Canada: a low-growth environment, “recession-like” conditions open to debate Information à usage interne - Internal • The guests argue that an economic recession tends to be broad-based with widespread corporate layoffs—conditions they're not seeing in Canada right now. • However, the economy is indeed weak, characterized by slow growth, amid structural issues (e.g., productivity), tariff after-effects, and cautious consumers. • But a fragile economy doesn't necessarily mean a lack of investable opportunities, since the Canadian stock market isn't perfectly linked to domestic growth. 4. Inflation: “rolling shocks” and new AI-driven inflation concerns • Inflation can manifest as a series of rolling transitory shocks, potentially driven by several forces (e.g., higher energy prices, trade tariffs, AI demand pressures). • AI's inflationary channel can take the form of various equipment-driven supply shortages that can push the prices of goods up over multiple quarters. • A specific risk scenario discussed: If the Strait of Hormuz remained closed until the end of July, could the price of oil breach $110/barrel in the third quarter? 5. Central banks: a higher degree of uncertainty and narrower policy paths • Fed policy in the coming months may face symmetric risks from either rate hikes or cuts, with market expectations already having been whipsawed in recent years. • The Bank of Canada has a different dilemma on its hands: balancing rising inflation concerns against a softening domestic economy and labor market. 6. Equity positioning: try to stay invested while avoiding headline-driven reactions 7. Fixed-income positioning: keep it in the portfolio toolkit, manage duration carefully Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors • Don't let macro and geopolitical headlines drive portfolio strategy decisions. • Remain well diversified across asset classes, investment styles, and global markets. • In the equity space, aim to distinguish between potential AI “winners” and “losers.” • Use fixed-income allocations intentionally for portfolio ballast and diversification. • Be cautious with long-duration bonds, consider favoring shorter durations. • Canadian investors: Be alert to possible opportunities, even in a sluggish economy. Links & Resources • Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast • Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada Information à usage interne - Internal Share & Subscribe If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy. For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions

Check out BeerBiceps SkillHouse Courses Here - https://linktr.ee/bbskillhouseFor all BeerBiceps vlog content Watch Life Of BeerBiceps - https://www.youtube.com/@LifeOfBeerBicepsCheck out my Mind Performance app: Level SuperMindLink:- https://app.level.game/?c=zSbmYnShare your guest suggestions hereMail - connect@beerbiceps.comLink - https://forms.gle/aoMHY9EE3Cg3Tqdx9Join the Level Community Here:https://linktr.ee/levelsupermindcommunityFollow BeerBiceps SkillHouse's Social Media Handles:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BeerBicepsSkillHouseInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/beerbiceps_skillhouseWebsite : https://beerbicepsskillhouse.inFor any other queries EMAIL: support@beerbicepsskillhouse.comIn case of any payment-related issues, kindly write to support@tagmango.comIn this special episode of The Ranveer Show, we are joined by Prof Arun Kumar (PhD in Economics), who shares deep insights on the impending global economic crisis, the impact of Super El Niño, AI's threat to mental labor, and the hidden realities of the Indian unorganized sector. This episode takes you into the complexities of global geopolitics, the fertilizer shortage, and the strategic roadmap India needs to navigate the next decade.In this conversation with Prof Arun Kumar, we talk about the Four Major Crises facing India, the displacement of jobs by Artificial Intelligence, the importance of a bottom-up economic approach, and the rising trade deficit with China. We also understand the impact of the West Asia crisis on global oil prices, the reality behind "Stagflation," and how India can achieve true strategic autonomy by investing in R&D and supporting the micro-sector through cooperatives.This episode also covers the Super El Niño's effect on agriculture, the decimation of MSMEs, the new Cold War between the US and the China-Russia-Iran block, the role of black money in hurting productivity, and the future of energy through coal gasification and solar power.This podcast is a valuable resource for anyone interested in Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, AI and Job Security, Indian Agriculture, Global Trade, and the future of the Indian Economy.(00:00) – Start of the episode(01:50) – 4 Major Crises Coming Soon(02:42) – The Super El Niño Threat(04:53) – Real Impact on Indian GDP(06:24) – China's Secret Growth Model(08:32) – The Threat to 11 Crore Jobs(10:43) – Fertilizer & Global Oil Shortage(12:37) – AI: The End of Mental Labor?(15:14) – Will Humans Become Obsolete?(17:39) – Indian Tech vs US Tech(19:22) – The New Global Cold War(22:26) – Why India Fails at R&D(25:54) – Our Dangerous Dependency on China(30:51) – The Reality of Unemployment(34:01) – Black Money & Productivity Loss(38:58) – Harsh Truth of Indian Policy(41:26) – Why You Should Stop Buying Gold(46:45) – Explaining Stagflation & Recession(53:04) – US, Iran, & The Global Oil War(1:00:14) – China's Master 30-Year Plan(1:03:08) – End of the episode#geopolitics #india

Bob sits down with Harvard Economics Professor Pol Antràs to discuss his new paper applying Böhm-Bawerk's average period of production to international trade, testing whether countries with lower interest rates tend to export goods requiring longer, more roundabout production processes.Related:Professor Antràs' Paper, "An ‘Austrian' Model of International Specialization": Mises.org/HAP554aBob's Article, "The Reswitching Question": Mises.org/HAP554b

At his first Fed meeting as chair, Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish stance focused squarely on inflation, while launching a sweeping reform agenda.  Policymakers are split between holding and potentially hiking, with strong emphasis on restoring price stability. Warsh introduced a significant shift in Fed governance and communication: shorter statements, less forward guidance, and five task forces aimed at rethinking policy frameworks. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin explore the implications of that shift, particularly the risk that reduced transparency could lead to greater market volatility as investors react more sharply to incoming data. They also assess market dynamics: Rising short-term yields pressured equities, while longer-term yields may remain range-bound if inflation expectations stabilize.  Finally, they offer practical portfolio takeaways—emphasizing diversification within equities, a focus on quality and earnings strength, and a disciplined approach to asset allocation in a higher-rate, more-uncertain policy regime. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.   Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions   Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software.   (0626-05FT) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bob sits down with Harvard Economics Professor Pol Antràs to discuss his new paper applying Böhm-Bawerk's average period of production to international trade, testing whether countries with lower interest rates tend to export goods requiring longer, more roundabout production processes.Related:Professor Antràs' Paper, "An ‘Austrian' Model of International Specialization": Mises.org/HAP554aBob's Article, "The Reswitching Question": Mises.org/HAP554b

A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market.It's been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for global oil supplies and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.  In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep. 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Brent Johnson. They'll discuss the Iran deal, Brent's outlook for the U.S. dollar, and much more. https://bit.ly/4xRl8ga      

Is the US economy increasingly dependent on high-income consumers? In this episode of “Credit Currents,” Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, and Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings, examine the reality of the K-shaped economy. They explore how the top 20% of earners now drive roughly 60% of spending, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from rising costs of essentials like food, fuel and housing. From premium airline demand to tightening credit conditions and weakening real income growth, this episode highlights why economic growth may appear stable, but is becoming increasingly fragile and concentrated.   Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Moody's Ratings Guests: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings   Related Research:  Global Macro Outlook (May 2026 Update) - Global energy market stress weighs on growth prospects The State of the Consumer (March 2026) – US - Higher energy prices and a narrowing consumption base pose risks to spending The State of the Consumer (May 2026) – Europe - Middle East conflict will weaken consumer confidence and nascent economic recovery Geopolitical Risk – Global - Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption through autumn broadens credit stress © 2026 Moody's Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody's information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mat Kirschner, lead portfolio manager for the Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), an actively managed real estate closed-end fund, shares views on the entry point for commercial real estate investors. He also highlights three potential opportunities, backed by powerful macroeconomic themes and limited supply dynamics.

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down.Related contentFed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda's absence

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Larry McDonald. They discuss what's driven this sell-off, whether the Iran conflict had anything to do with it, and where the opportunities lie in today's markets. https://bit.ly/4ebDAHe    

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble.Related contentBar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every & Rory Johnston. They discuss all things Iran from geopolitics to inflation outlook to what it means for China to President Trump and Secretary Bessent's stablecoin statecraft ambitions. https://bit.ly/3RQ4ixB    

In our podcast episode, Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, is joined by Marc Stacey, Investment Grade Senior Portfolio Manager. Amidst a backdrop of increased geopolitical risk, Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher, and Europe ramping up defence spending, the region's banks are thriving. Mike and Marc discuss why the sector is showing resilience during the current uncertainty, why European banks are set to benefit from the AI hyperscaler buildout, and nuance behind the private credit headlines.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different era. In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin explore why long-term bond yields remain elevated, how rising uncertainty is driving a higher term premium, and what a potential shift away from the “Great Moderation” could mean for investors. They discuss how inflation volatility, reduced likelihood of Fed asset purchases, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for interest rates and economic stability. The conversation also examines changing correlations between stocks and bonds, and whether equities are underpricing risks. Then, Liz Ann is joined by RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. Joe reinforces the idea of a structural shift, describing a “split-screen” economy marked by inequality, policy shocks, and an AI-driven transformation. He expects trend-level growth but sustained inflation pressures, with risks tied to energy supply disruptions and potential knock-on effects to equities via the wealth effect. The conversation highlights a disconnect between resilient equity markets and more cautious signals from bond markets, suggesting investors brace for higher-for-longer rates, ongoing volatility, and a more complex economic cycle. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To keep up with Joe Brusuelas, you can follow him on X: @joebrusuelas On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Alternative investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Investors may lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. Alternative investments cover a wide array of strategies, including real estate, private equity, private credit, and hedge funds. Risks will vary based on each unique strategy and can include investments in highly illiquid assets or securities, use of leverage, higher fees, lower transparency, tax risks, and limited ability to redeem or limited transferability. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. (0526-NRT9)   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren & Jim Bianco.  They'll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://bit.ly/4tXAlJr    

What happens when you apply deep operational experience to the massive, complex budget of the world's fifth-largest economy? In this episode, we sit down with California gubernatorial candidate, author, and political commentator Steve Hilton. We dive into the structural inflection points that shaped modern California, the true multi-generational fallout of controversial tax policies like the proposed "Billionaire Tax," and the leadership frameworks required to manage massive public budgets. Steve also pulls back the curtain on his gubernatorial campaign trail, sharing his biggest "ah-ha" moments and how he would structure a modern debate to cut through political theater. Whether you are interested in macroeconomic policy, corporate governance, or the future of the Golden State, this conversation offers a masterclass in strategic leadership and policy design. Key Discussion Points & Timeline Structural Inflection Points: The one historical decision that radically altered the trajectory of California's economy and infrastructure. The Macroeconomics of Leadership: Deconstructing the specific blend of financial acumen and deep operational experience required to run massive, multi-billion-dollar public budgets. Second-Degree Fallout of the "Billionaire Tax": A critical analysis of the downstream, unintended economic consequences of hyper-targeting high-net-worth individuals and capital allocators in California. Reimagining the Modern Debate: How Steve would moderate a high-stakes debate, his strategy for crafting questions, and how to force accountability on the public stage. Featured Guest Links Official Campaign Website: Steve Hilton for Governor Biography & Background: Steve Hilton on Wikipedia ⚖️ Compliance Disclaimer Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or legal advice, nor do they necessarily reflect the views of Finalis Inc. or Finalis Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Macroeconomic conditions are squeezing US airlines and travelers just in time for the summer travel season.  Higher fuel costs due to the conflict in the Middle East are pushing up ticket prices. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed fares rose by about 3% in April. Meanwhile, choices for cheap seats decreased when Spirit Airlines went out of business in May. The ultra low-cost carrier blamed soaring energy prices. What does this uptick in energy inflation mean for airlines' profits and travelers' wallets?   Nic Owens is an equity analyst for Morningstar and covers the North American airlines. April CPI Report Shows Inflation Broadening As Energy Spike Impact Spreads On this episode: 00:00:00 Welcome 00:01:21 Energy prices and airline profit outlooks 00:02:40 How this summer's travel demand stacks up  00:04:01 Which Big Four airlines are most and least vulnerable  00:05:44 Who will compete for Spirit's former customers 00:07:00 Tips for travelers   00:08:51 What Morningstar's analyst thinks about airline stocks Watch more from Morningstar: Bond ETF Flows Just Flipped. Here's What It Means for You How Big Tech's Bond Spree and Rising US Debt Are Creating Risks and Opportunities 10 Exceptional Stocks With Double-Digit Dividend Raises   Follow Morningstar on social: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/ X https://x.com/MorningstarInc Instagram https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Macroeconomic volatility creates value for muni bond investors. Follow Us Twitter @NYLInvestments Twitter @MacKayMuniMgrs Facebook @NYLInvestments LinkedIn: New York Life Investments LinkedIn: MacKay Municipal Managers Presented by New York Life Investmentswww.newyorklifeinvestments.com   MacKay Municipal Managers is a team of portfolio managers at MacKay Shields. MacKay Shields is 100% owned by NYLIM Holdings, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. “New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Morgan Downey. They discuss the ongoing crisis, with Morgan warning that all buffers and safety margins have been exhausted, explaining why a Strait closure lasting another month could drive oil prices to $150–$200, and exploring several other critical dimensions of this rapidly evolving situation. https://bit.ly/3Pe3zpa    

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Europe's NATO members have pledged 3.5% of GDP to rearmament. The political argument is already about which social programmes will be sacrificed to pay for this, when the government chooses guns instead of butter. What does history tell us about what politicians will do?Christoph Trebesch and Johannes Marzian spent four years assembling the Global Budget Database: 150 years of primary government budget documents from 20 countries, with 116 identified military spending booms in peace and war. They find that governments almost never cut social spending when they rearm; they expand both military and welfare budgets simultaneously. The bill arrives later, as higher taxes. Top income rates typically rise by 10 to 15 percentage points in the decade following a military boom, funded mainly through broad-based income and value-added taxes. With rearmament underway, will history repeat itself?The research behind this episode:Marzian, Johannes, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War." CEPR Discussion Paper 21193. [Gated]To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestChristoph Trebesch is Director of the Research Center on International Finance at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. His research spans sovereign debt, financial crises, China's role in global finance, the economics of populism, and the long-run fiscal history of military spending. He is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). In 2024 he received the Hermann Heinrich Gossen Award, Germany's leading economics prize for economists under 45.Research cited in this episodeThe Global Budget Database is the primary dataset introduced in this paper. Marzian and Trebesch constructed it from primary archival sources, including national parliamentary budget documents, for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. Unlike existing datasets that rely on planned rather than realised expenditures, it records what governments actually spent, broken down by ministry and purpose. The Switzerland case illustrates the stakes: standard sources record Swiss military spending at around 2% of GDP during the World Wars. The archival record shows actual spending reached 10% once off-budget items are included; five times the apparent figure.The Correlates of War (COW) Military Expenditures Dataset is one of the most widely used secondary-source datasets for historical military spending, maintained by the Correlates of War Project. Trebesch uses the Swiss case to illustrate the limitations of secondary-source data: the COW series misses off-budget military items that primary archival documents capture, producing a significantly distorted picture of wartime mobilisation in a number of countries.Credit booms methodology provided the template for identifying military spending booms. Trebesch and Marzian define a boom as an increase of at least 6.5 percentage points of military spending as a share of GDP over two consecutive years, ending when spending growth falls to zero. This approach, adapted from the literature on financial credit expansions and their economic consequences, allows systematic cross-country and cross-period identification without relying on retrospective classification alone. Each algorithmically flagged episode was then verified against historical sources.Local projections are the main statistical technique used to trace the long-run fiscal path following military booms. The method estimates how a variable (here, tax revenues and top income rates) evolves over time following an identified shock. It is well suited to the protracted dynamics Trebesch and Marzian observe: tax rates rising over a decade or more after a military buildup and, critically, not returning to pre-boom levels once the spending episode ends.Exogenous military shocks are the basis of the paper's causal identification strategy. To separate the fiscal effects of military spending from broader economic conditions, the authors distinguish episodes triggered by external geopolitical events from those driven by domestic factors. France's rearmament in the mid-1930s, forced by Nazi Germany's military expansion regardless of French domestic politics, is used as an example of an exogenous peacetime boom. Germany's own rearmament in the same period would not qualify as exogenous, since Germany initiated the shock. The same logic applies to wars: a country attacked faces an exogenous event; the attacker does not.More VoxTalks Economics episodesIn Can Europe Defend Itself?, featuring Moritz Schularick, Christoph's colleague from the Kiel Institute, we examine whether Europe has the industrial and strategic capacity to convert its rearmament commitment into credible deterrence, and what European rearmament could mean in practice. Related reading on VoxEUDefence spending: no free lunch, a VoxEU column arguing that increased military expenditure adds modestly to near-term economic activity while adding to fiscal pressure; lasting economic benefits from rearmament are far from guaranteed.Macroeconomic impacts of defence spending, a VoxEU column modelling the EU-wide effects of raising NATO members' defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035; projected GDP gains are modest and come at the cost of higher debt-to-GDP ratios.Converging military spending and its fiscal consequences, a VoxEU column examining long-run trends in military expenditure across countries and the fiscal footprint they leave behind.The economic effects of military support for Ukraine: evidence from fiscal multipliers in donor countries, a VoxEU column finding that spending multipliers for military expenditure can exceed those for other categories of public spending.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They discuss why the Hormuz crisis hasn't derailed the S&P 500's surge to new all-time highs, Mike's disagreement with secular-inflation forecasts, why Kevin Warsh could be more likely to cut rates aggressively than hike, and the unintended consequences of passive investing through index funds. https://bit.ly/3R6TDhH    

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the market backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict, noting that while oil price volatility has influenced inflation expectations and Treasury yields, its broader economic impact has been limited so far due to lag effects and structural shifts in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, investor attention has returned to earnings season and AI-driven growth, with a narrow group of mega-cap companies responsible for a disproportionate share of earnings upgrades—highlighting ongoing concentration risks in both markets and fundamentals. Then, Collin Martin is joined by Inga Rachwald, director and senior investment portfolio strategist supporting Schwab Asset Management. Inga addresses common challenges, including the perceived breakdown of diversification during periods of market concentration or rising rates, and explains why these are often misinterpretations driven by inappropriate benchmarks. The discussion introduces goal-based investing as a more practical framework, aligning portfolios with specific time horizons and objectives rather than short-term performance comparisons. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To learn more about behavioral biases that can cloud your judgment, check out the latest episode of the Choiceology podcast, hosted by Katy Milkman. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification, asset allocation and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the risk of total loss of principal invested. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are highly volatile, are not backed or guaranteed by the bank, any central bank or government; are not deposits; are not FDIC insured; are not SIPC protected; and lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. (0526-DH17) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Louis-Vincent Gave. They'll discuss, what's going on in the conflict and what it will mean for global markets in the coming months. https://bit.ly/42T7eeW    

Bob responds to a new working paper from the Geo-chartalism project, which claims to offer a complete theory of the price level by combining insights from Menger, Cantillon, and Warren Mosler. Bob argues that the paper overlooks a crucial prior contribution: Mises' regression theorem, developed in The Theory of Money and Credit, which already solved the circularity problem in monetary theory that the paper claims required Mosler to resolve. Along the way, Bob also explains chartalism, Georgism, and Mises's explanation of the absolute price level.Related:Bob's Paper Critiquing Kevin Carson's Studies in Mutualist Political Economy: Mises.org/HAP548aGeorge Charles, “The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis”: Mises.org/HAP548bMMT vs. Austrian School Debate: Mises.org/HAP548cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI's current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA, is turning out some great economists. Guest: Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic For more from Peter McCrory: https://peter-mccrory.github.io/ Read The Macroeconomic Consequences of AI and Aging and the Productivity Puzzle Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Daniel Lacalle.  They'll discuss secular inflation, precious metals, the greater risk to Europe from the energy crisis, and much more. https://bit.ly/42Ek4O5.    

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. In Basil's first appearance on the show he discusses the famous but flawed Citrini essay, why Silicon Valley's growth expectations aren't showing up yet in interest rates, the impact of Less Than Zero by George Selgin, what the true frictions in the economy are, the differences between Calvo and menu-cost pricing, the impact of transformational AI on emerging economies and the housing market, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 27th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Basil Halperin on X: @BasilHalperin Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:20 - Global Intelligence Crisis 00:07:04 - Transformative AI and Interest Rates 00:21:05 - Optimal Monetary Policy Under Menu Costs 00:48:13 - Transformative AI and its Macro Implications 00:55:41 - Outro

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Ole Hansen. They'll discuss what comes next in the Iran conflict, what the longer-term implications are for energy markets, what's coming in food inflation and how to trade it, and a longer term outlook for secular inflation. https://bit.ly/3OXHPNV    

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Luke Gromen. They discuss the Iran crisis, its knock-on effects, and what it means for inflation looking ahead. https://bit.ly/4ctlZtj     

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Adam Rozencwajg. They discuss, crude oil, food & fertilisers, uranium, and gold after the Iran conflict. https://bit.ly/4vkd1XX     

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Matt Barrie & Dr. Anas Alhajji. They discuss the latest developments in AI, their impact on private credit markets, and why emerging pricing models could trigger a dot-com–scale market disruption. https://bit.ly/47Ca0Z5