Branch of economics that studies aggregated indicators
Matthew Raskin is the US head of rates research at Deutsche Bank and was formerly a senior staff member of the Federal Reserve System. Matthew joins David on Macro Musings to talk about interest rates, QE, QT, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. David and Matthew also discuss the inside story behind the Fed's shift in operating system, Matthew's framework for long-term interest rates, how to improve the liquidity and stability of the Treasury market, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Matthew's LinkedIn profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases* by Joseph Gagnon, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache, and Brian Sack
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam sat down with Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited and Former Investment Committee Member of Bridgewater Associates. They talk about how to preserve your wealth in the 2020's, current market dynamics, and how a spot Bitcoin ETF could impact Bitcoin moving forward.Timestamps:00:00:00 “Swan Signal Live” Intro00:01:50 Introducing “Bob Elliott” and His Background in Investing00:04:58 Investing Philosophy at “Bridgewater Associates”00:09:16 Are we Entering a New Investing Regime?00:12:10 Why Does “Nominal Wage Growth” Matter?00:13:33 “Unemployment Rate”00:18:50 How Interest Rates Effect Borrowing/Lending00:19:44 Global-Contagion-Effect of Defaulted Mortgages00:21:48 Sovereign Debt00:26:52 Treasury & Bond Market, and Positioning for a Recession00:37:50 “60/40 Portfolio” - Diversifying For the Future00:41:04 “Let's Talk about Gold”00:45:20 Counterparty Risks with Gold00:47:16 Are you Surprised by Gold's Performance?00:50:21 “Let's Talk about Bitcoin”00:55:14 Bitcoin Lifecycle, and How it Responds to Inflationary Pressures00:59:00 “Getting Off Zero”01:05:00 What Bob is Building at “Unlimited,” and his thoughts on the Bitcoin ETF01:09:30 How “ETF's” Help Consumers01:11:27 Benefits of the “Bitcoin ETF” for Consumers01:17:41 How to Connect with “Bob Elliott”01:18:25 “Swan Signal Live” OutroConnect with Alex and Bob:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahBob Elliott: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited"Nakamoto Portfolio Theory:" https://nakamotoportfolio.com"Welcome to Bitcoin"A FREE 1-hour course hosted by Natalie Brunell, perfect for helping you to orange-pill family members over the holidays at https://Swan.com/welcome Connect with Swan Bitcoin: YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_Bitcoin Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin Telegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoin LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoinSwan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin. Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Start your Bitcoin journey today, and your first $10 purchase is on us https://swanbitcoin.com/yt Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get your ticket for the Pacific Bitcoin Festival 2023 before prices increase! https://www.pacificbitcoin.com/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes https://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ira/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out the Bitcoin Canon a curated list of the best Bitcoin resources from your favorite experts https://swanbitcoin.com/cannon/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners by joining Swan Force https://www.swanbitcoin.com/enlist/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to discuss the potential for a bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. They believe that the current undervaluation of the metals and mining industry, coupled with various macroeconomic trends, presents an attractive investment opportunity. Tavi highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the gold mining sector and the importance of finding major discoveries in the juniors. They also discuss the potential impact of ESG policies and green agendas on gold production. Tavi Costa suggests that silver is worth paying attention to, citing factors such as increased imports from India and declining production from Peru and Mexico. He sees silver as a monetary and inflationary hedge. They discuss the macroeconomic indicators pointing towards a potential recession, as well as potential opportunities in the commodity space. Tavi Costa offers insights into the Argentine and Brazilian economies and suggests potential solutions to currency and investment issues in Brazil. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:33 - Bullish Technicals2:45 - Confirmation Levels6:00 - Majors & Mine Reserves9:23 - Miners Diversifying?11:32 - Mining Seasonality13:26 - Capital Rotation16:24 - Setup For Silver Miners18:00 - India Silver Imports19:38 - Fundamentals Vs. Technicals23:00 - Commodities to Equity Ratio28:23 - Commodities & Inflation33:20 - U.S. Bond Issuances38:10 - Inverted Yield Curve41:30 - Recession & Soft Landings43:45 - Politics in Argentina49:08 - Inflationary Eras51:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tavi discusses the opportunity for investors in the metals and mining industry. Macroeconomic developments and market changes indicate a potential recession in the near future, and further inflation appears to remain an issue. The cost of capital will be an important question if inflation remains high, and that in five to ten years, the changes in the market will be more obvious. ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to the show. They discuss everything from recession risk to Eurozone economic weakness and what's causing it, to inflation and why Daniel says last week's CPI print wasn't necessary as bullish as market participants have perceived, to monetary aggregate contraction to energy prices and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this Sunday to what's happened to public sentiment in Europe relative to nuclear energy. https://bit.ly/47MDHEu Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
This episode is brought to you by: AutoFi - AutoFi empowers your team with digital retail technology that accelerates the sale. Learn more @ https://www.autofi.com/cdg/ Podium - The lead conversion platform for car dealerships. Get 10% of your plan by texting “CarDealershipGuy” to (833) 441-1166 or visit https://bit.ly/48UKr4x In this episode, I'm speaking with Betty Jotanovic, President of Chrysler Capital and Auto Relationships at Santander. Interested in advertising with CarDealershipGuy? Drop us a line here Interested in being considered as a guest on the podcast? Add your name here Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:03:04) - Betty's background and career (00:09:47) - Distribution channels (00:10:52) - Difficulty in signing up with new dealers (00:12:23) - What makes an excellent dealership to work with (00:15:28) - Quantifying risk (00:16:21) - Auto loan and economic concerns (00:24:28) - Quantifying risk on EVs (00:26:25) - Repossessions and fraud (00:30:37) - Balancing digital lending vs. having a physical presence (00:33:05) - Embedded advantages to being vertically integrated (00:34:46) - What do you do with all the loans once they're issued? (00:36:10) - Reacting to the changing nature of lending (00:39:16) - Automating the lending business (00:41:44) - Macroeconomic outlooks (00:43:28) - Advice to dealers (00:45:42) - Where to learn more Check out Santander here. Check out the website for more (https://dealershipguy.com) and follow me on X @GuyDealership! (https://x.com/guydealership) This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
David Papell is a professor of economics at the University of Houston and has published widely on monetary policy rules. David joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper, *Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the COVID-19 Recession,* as well as the origins, past uses, and current applications of monetary policy rules. Transcript for this week's episode. David's Twitter: @DavidPapell David's University of Houston portal David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Fed Approaches the End of the Rate Hiking Cycle* by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the COVID-19 Recession* by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rule Legislation in Practice* by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David Papell, and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rules and Economic Performance* by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David Papell, and Ruxandra Prodan
► Episode Notes: Who's been buying smart plugs – and who's been getting them for free?! Find out on this week's PlayingFTSE Show! Steve and Steve are talking investing this week. Steve W has a REIT and a macroeconomic update and Steve D is looking at two companies that reported earnings recently. In consumption news this week, both Steves have been looking at understanding well-known businesses a bit better. Steve D has been looking at a write-up of Dsney and Steve W has been listening to a podcast about Coca-Cola, but why have these been catching their attention this week? Next, it's a macroeconomics update – we've got inflation news, GDP data, and consumer strength. But why are the Steves nervous about the future despite the news that the UK seems set to avoid a recession this year and the US is headed for a soft landing? We're following that with Wise – a cross-border payment processor that we've talked about on the show a few times. With impressive growth and more to come, is now the time to buy or should investors wait for the tough comps to move out of the way? Next is a REIT. Steve W's been talking about a few specialist operators recently, so here's one that owns basically everything that's left in the UK. And we're finishing with Tencent. The big just keep getting bigger with a massive domestic market to play in, but the thing really catching the eye at the moment is they seem to have access to chips that their rivals Alibaba don't… Only on this week's PlayingFTSE Podcast! ► What We Consumed This Week:Business Breakdowns: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0iisxRW9EOT6gFh9vh1zfr?si=fZTTo64ETGO8KJQMyRSujgThe Science of Hitting: https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/disney-the-turning-point ► Support the show: Appreciate the show and want to offer your support? You could always buy us a coffee at: https://ko-fi.com/playingftse (All proceeds reinvested into the show and not to coffee!) There are many ways to help support the show, liking, commenting and sharing our episodes with friends! You can also check out our clothing merch store: https://playingftse.teemill.com/ We get a small cut of anything you buy which will be reinvested back into the show....COMPOUNDING! (you read that in Svens voice right? Did Briscoe mention he got Sven on the show!?) ► Get a free share! Trading 212 is OPEN to UK users again! If you'd like to sign up and get a free share you can do so on the link below! And full disclosure we get one too! https://www.trading212.com/invite/FMh1Cuvp ► Timestamps:0:00 Introduction10:41 This Weeks Consumption21:56 Macroeconomic Update35:36 Wise55:27 Alternative Income REIT01:07:37 Tencent ► Show Notes: What's been going on in the financial world and why should anyone care? Find out as we dive into the latest news and try to figure out what any of it means. We talk about stocks, markets, politics, and loads of other things in a way that's accessible, light-hearted and (we hope) entertaining. For the people who know nothing, by the people who know even less. Enjoy ► Wanna get in contact? Got a question for us? Drop it in the comments below or reach out to us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/playingftseshow Or on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/playing_ftse/ ► Enquiries: Please email - playingftsepodcast@gmail(dot)com
We want to do more than thank our supporters, but how do we do that?In Episode #421 of 'Musings', Juan & I discuss: economic and behavioural incentives, why I think most of macro economics is bullshit, accidently encouraging the wrong behaviour, why we want Mere Mortalites to feel good and about listening/contributing back and spitballing ideas on how we can make this happen. Massive thanks to Petar, McIntosh, Amorphous Continuum, Oscar Merry, Liam F & Sarah Jade. We're cooking up ways to give even more back to you.Timeline:(0:00) - Intro(0:36) - Juan's new place(1:50) - Today's topic(4:52) - Missing the trees for the trees(7:18) - Humans can't be predicted(13:36) - Behavioural(22:06) - Chaos theory & Squid Game(27:14) - Training a baby(31:37) - Boostagram Lounge(39:41) - What we want(55:25) - How to encourage it(1:02:40) - Experimenting with iffy tests(1:08:45) - Summary(1:13:01) - V4V: Send in a boostValue 4 Value Support:Boostagram: https://www.meremortalspodcast.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcastConnect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcast.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReUTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcast/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastSupport the show
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Lakshman Achuthan as this weeks featured guest. They'll discuss ECRI's leading indicators, growth and inflation, the Hard Landing Lak still predicts and much more! https://bit.ly/49S2gBN Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Join OptionFinity discord: https://discord.gg/Rvnsv6Y Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
The latest KJH Insights podcast, on managing investment risk and returns, takes a look at the biggest issues affecting markets and how we navigate those issues to build and protect wealth. Join the KJH team as we discuss geopolitical instability, changing credit conditions and the continued opportunities in the bond market.
Kaspar Hense, BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager, Investment Grade, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, consider the big-picture themes they believe all those involved in high-grade bonds should consider, and discuss how the differing dynamics across the asset class can help drive returns.
Are we out of the woods yet? In this podcast, Ellie Golden hosts our UK Chief Economist Barret Kupelian, along with Jake Finney, a manager in our Economics team, to discuss their views on the macroeconomic outlook and the reports special article, which offers a holistic evaluation on undergraduate degrees. The speaker's outline their views on GDP growth, the outlook on headline inflation and what recent geopolitical developments could mean for domestic prices in the UK.
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam sits down with Alex Thorn to discuss Bitcoin supply and demand dynamics, impact of options markets on price movements, estimating potential spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and regulatory updates.Timestamps:00:00:00 “Swan Signal Live” Intro00:01:19 Introducing “Alex Thorn”00:01:52 Alex's Bitcoin Journey00:03:25 What Made “Fidelity” More Open to Bitcoin?00:07:15 Why Institutional Adoption is Coming to Bitcoin00:11:37 Maturation Process of Bitcoin00:15:51 How Volatility & Bitcoin Help a “Traditional Portfolio”00:21:58 “Gold with Wings”00:25:21 “Gamma Squeeze” - How the Options Market Effects Bitcoin's Price00:33:48 “Hedging” in “Options Trading”00:37:44 Bitcoin “Option” & “Futures” Markets Interest in the U.S.00:41:42 Estimating “Flows” into the “Spot Bitcoin-ETF”00:50:40 Bitcoin Bull-Market00:53:40 “The Proof Act” - How Bitcoin Will Adapt and Grow to Fight Various Oncoming Regulations00:57:11 'Proof of Reserves”01:01:30 “Regulatory Risks” - FinCEN01:06:22 Educating Policy Makers about the Importance of Finanical Privacy01:09:15 How to Connect with Alex01:10:37 “Swan Signal Live” OutroConnect with Alex and Sam:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahAlex Thorn: https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins"Galaxy" Research: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/"Nakamoto Portfolio Theory:" https://nakamotoportfolio.comConnect with Swan Bitcoin:YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_BitcoinTwitter: https://twitter.com/SwanInstagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoinTelegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoinLinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoinSwan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin.Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Start your Bitcoin journey today, and your first $10 purchase is on ushttps://swanbitcoin.com/ytDownload the all-new Swan Bitcoin Apphttps://www.swanbitcoin.com/app/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_descriptionGet your ticket for the Pacific Bitcoin Festival 2023 before prices increase!https://www.pacificbitcoin.com/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_descriptionSecure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxeshttps://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ira/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_descriptionFor high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guidehttps://www.swanbitcoin.com/private/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_descriptionWant to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out the Bitcoin Canon a curated list of the best Bitcoin resources from your favorite expertshttps://swanbitcoin.com/cannon/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_descriptionGet paid to recruit new Bitcoiners by joining Swan Forcehttps://www.swanbitcoin.com/enlist/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description
In the latest podcast, Mishka delves into an all-encompassing discussion with Chris Hewish, President and interim CEO of Xsolla. Chris boasts an impressive gaming career that spans iconic companies like Skydance, Survios, DreamWorks, and includes a substantial 13-year stint at Activision. Topics discussed: Macroeconomics vs. Game Investments Console Gaming: Challenges & Opportunities Behavioral Economics Unity's Odyssey Transmedia Generative AI and Creative Workflows Bonus… --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/deconstructoroffun/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/deconstructoroffun/support
Rachel Siegel is a reporter for the Washington Post, where she covers the Federal Reserve and also reports on the domestic economy more broadly. Rachel joins Macro Musings to talk about the current Fed beat as well as her work on other economic issues, including how the Fed deals with physical cash, the precarious state of the commercial real estate market, the potential issues facing voters heading into the 2024 election, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Rachel's Twitter: @rachsieg Rachels Washington Post profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Two Blocks from the Federal Reserve, a Growing Encampment of the Homeless Grips the Economy's Most Powerful Person* by Rachel Siegel *The High-tech, Super-secure Government Warehouse Where Old Cash Dies* by Rachel Siegel, Joy Sharon Yi, Hannah Yoon, and Emily Wright *How the ‘Urban Doom Loop' Could Pose the Next Economic Threat* by Rachel Siegel *Austin's Office Market is Exploding. But No One is Moving in* by Rachel Siegel *Remote Work Guru Nick Bloom Thinks We'll Never Go Back to the Office Full-time – But ‘Maintaining Discipline is Important'* by Geoff Colvin
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam sits down with Vijay Boyapati to discuss the alleged fraud of DCG, Genesis, and their leaders Barry Silbert and Michael Moro, its impact on the likelihood of GBTC converting to a spot Bitcoin ETF, and major lessons investors can learn from the debacle.Timestamps:00:00:00 “Swan Signal” Intro00:02:10 Introducing Vijay Boyapati00:02:53 Daisy-Chain of Fraud: Story of DCG and Genisis00:06:42 History of Barry Silbert, DCG, and Gemini00:13:30 Risks of Leverage: Where Did They Get the Money From?00:19:06 Incentive Structures: What led Three Arrows Capital to Blowing Up?00:25:55 History of “3 Arrows Capital” Going Bankrupt00:37:22 Similarities Between “DCG, Three Arrows Capital” and “FTX”00:41:20 Why Didn't Genesis Declare Bankruptcy?00:43:15 Potential Legal Woes for Barry Silbert, Genesis, and DCG00:46:30 “Moral Compass”00:48:12 Redemption Methods and the Importance of Self-Custody00:53:11 Should the SEC Convert the “Greyscale ETF?”00:58:45 Loans from the “Gemini Earn Program”01:00:22 End of the “Daisy-Chain”01:05:34 “3 Key Takeaways” From the DCG/Genesis Fraud01:07:33 How to Connect with Vijay Boyapati01:08:04 “Swan Signal” OutroConnect with Vijay and Sam:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahVijay Boyapati: https://twitter.com/real_vijayLink to Vijay Thread:https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182Connect with Swan Bitcoin: YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_Bitcoin Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin Telegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoin LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoinSwan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin. Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Start your Bitcoin journey today, and your first $10 purchase is on us https://swanbitcoin.com/yt Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get your ticket for the Pacific Bitcoin Festival 2023 before prices increase! https://www.pacificbitcoin.com/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes https://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ira/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out the Bitcoin Canon a curated list of the best Bitcoin resources from your favorite experts https://swanbitcoin.com/cannon/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners by joining Swan Force https://www.swanbitcoin.com/enlist/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description
Join us for a very special edition of TrendsTalk, as ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain highlights the current state of the macroeconomy based on the latest GDP data, as well as private investment in the US as it relates to GDP for our 250th episode!
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, welcome back Goehring & Rozencwaj Co-Founder Leigh Goehring as this weeks guest. Erik and Leigh will discuss the relationship between monetary policy and commodities investing, gold-backed digital currencies and much more. https://bit.ly/468MiA2 Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
The study of economics is often viewed as a battle between two worldviews. Proverbs 11:1 underscores this, stating, "A false balance is an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is his delight." This verse not only condemns dishonesty but also accentuates the importance of integrity. This theme is a central focus in this lecture by Mike Winther on basic economic principles. Economics becomes particularly fascinating when viewed in the context of this larger conflict. Mike presents a perspective distinct from the common narratives on energy policy, healthcare, prices, and recession found in the news. The Bible offers solutions to our current economic challenges, and Mike discusses the benefits of understanding and embracing a biblical worldview. You'll Learn: [00:41] Proverbs 11:1 The lord abhors dishonest scales. Accurate weights are his delight. [01:26] We are battling between honest weights and measures and dishonest weights and measures. [01:47] What if you or someone you knew had the solution to America's healthcare crisis? Would it be important for society to know these solutions? [02:31] The Bible contains the economic solutions for all of our current problems. [03:35] Mike talks about why the biblical worldview isn't taught frequently enough from the pulpit. [07:26] Parents need to be hands on with what their kids are being taught. [09:52] Economics is an evangelistic field of study. Every academic discipline is a field for evangelism. [10:59] The invisible hand is God. [11:53] Economics is really the rules of the house. Economics is the study of property. It's the study of resources. [15:11] Are money issues moral issues? [16:54] Microeconomics is the study of economics related to a household or business. [17:23] Macroeconomics is the study of an entire economy. Economic laws and truths apply in both fields. [19:43] Mike talks about scarcity and supply and demand. [20:06] Capital is the key to the study of economics. It's the means of production. It can also be excess production. [22:53] Excess production is profit. [23:48] There are two broad economic systems in the world. There's the free market economy or laissez-faire. To be left alone or government hands off. [24:34] The other economic system is socialism. From each according to his ability to each according to his need. This implies a central pooling of resources. [25:36] The common pooling of resources is mandatory and forced. [27:11] Communism is a form of socialism. Karl Marx gives 10 ways on how to bring socialism to a system. [28:11] Eight of these points have to do with the abolition and infringement of private property. [31:25] The free market system is the only system compatible with God given rights. [36:20] Economic schools of thought. Keynesian economics is really socialist economics. It's an economic model of government control. [37:01] The Austrian School of economics is the purest version of free market economics. [40:26] Who benefits from economic transactions? [42:49] Money is a key concept of economics. Money is a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of measurement. [44:16] The five important qualities of money include having intrinsic value, durability, divisibility, transportability, and scarcity. [49:57] Mike talks about how inflation is a form of theft. [52:17] Supply and demand. As prices go up, businesses supply more. A lot of people will buy an affordable product. Where supply and demand meet on the curb is where the price should be. Your Resources: Books to browse Five Principles By Michael Winther The Communist Manifesto The Revolution The Creature from Jekyll Island
Will Bateman is an associate professor and associate dean of research at the Australian National University College of Law. Will has recently authored a paper titled, *The Fiscal Fed,* which takes a close look at the Fed's fiscal functions during the two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Will joins Macro Musings to talk about this paper, the origins and evolution of the Fed, the implications for policymakers, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Will's ANU profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Fiscal Fed* by Will Bateman *The Law of Monetary Finance Under Conventional Monetary Policy* by Will Bateman
IPSOS polling: 40% of Canadians have trouble sleeping at night due to financial stress. - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem states the federal government's spending is working at cross purposes to the BOC's work on taming inflation. - Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP) reveals the number of Canadian business insolvencies in the third quarter rose to the highest level in 10 years, up 41.8% over the same quarter last year. - Statscan: Canada in technical recession. Guest: Professor Eric Kam. Macroeconomics. Toronto Metropolitan University Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's podcast: We speak with CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre about the demand that Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals pause or entirely and without deadline end the carbon tax for all home heating products nationally, not just home heating oil in mainly Atlantic Canada. - Premiers are making this demand this weekend at the Council of the Federation. - Federal NDP will vote with CPC and leader Pierre Poilievre on a non-binding parliamentary motion on this issue Monday. - Also, Jewish Canadians under threat and living in fear. - The Israel vs Hamas war and calls for a humanitarian pause or ceasefire. According to IPSOS polling 40% of Canadians have trouble sleeping at night due to financial stress - What does he have to say about Alberta's government looking to exit the CPP and now the fed finance minister has agreed to provide a $-figure Alberta might expect to be carved out of current CPP funds. Guest: Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. The Israeli military joins us to discuss the war with Hamas, the threat of a second front fighting Hezbollah to the north in Lebanon and responds to international protest claims the IDF is engaging in war crimes. Guest: Major Doron Spielman. Spokesperson IDF. Professor Christian Leuprecht, Queen's University and RMC, Fellow at the NATO College in Rome. national/international security expert warned 2 weeks ago on air with us that this is the most dangerous time the world has experienced in decades. Has that evaluation changed as the war between Israel and Hamas develops? - National issues of greatest concern and their impact on Canada/Canadians? Not least is the fear Canada's Jewish population is now living with. - Is Canada's counsel/input sought or mostly unrequested by allies? Guest: Professor Christian Leuprecht IPSOS polling: 40% of Canadians have trouble sleeping at night due to financial stress. - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem states the federal government's spending is working at cross purposes to the BOC's work on taming inflation. - Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP) reveals the number of Canadian business insolvencies in the third quarter rose to the highest level in 10 years, up 41.8% over the same quarter last year. - Statscan: Canada in technical recession. Guest: Professor Eric Kam. Macroeconomics. Toronto Metropolitan University --------------------------------------------- Host/Content Producer – Roy Green Technical Producer - Santiago Bedoya Podcast Producer – Tom Craig Podcast Co-Producers – Michael Downey and David Hunter If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Roy Green Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/roygreen/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master's program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others. This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers. Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you're interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you! ***** Hannes Mueller Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review. Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236. TIMESTAMPS (00:00:00) Introduction (00:01:17) Hannes's background (00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia (00:05:42) How Hannes's interest in politics shapes his research (00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity (00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services (00:22:06) What is fragility (00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict (00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict (00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility (00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding (00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility (00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting (00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem (00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention (01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention? (01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model (01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo (01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn't ask (01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention (01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making (01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons (01:54:22) Hannes's data wish list (02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model's performance (02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis (02:08:45) Future research goals (02:13:08) Institutional myopia (02:15:27) Should we bring back salons (02:19:15) Wrap-up
Learn the business economics - the metrics that matter - for your business. Matt Reynolds dives into macroeconomics and microeconomic or unit statistics, healthy rates, and how to calculate these statistics. You don't know the health of your business if you don't know these metrics. Business Economics: Know the Health of Your Business You cannot go off how you feel about your business to know if your business is doing well. The reality is real, and if you fail to know the economic realities of your business, the economic realities will confront you when abject failure slaps you in the face. It's okay, though. Even if the metrics are bad or trending in the wrong direction, have a true, clear picture helps you identify problems and where you need to put your energy and effort to turn things around. If your waist goes up month after month, you're getting unhealthier, whether you're measuring it or not. These metrics give you an objective measuring standard to assess your business' health. Business Economics: Metrics that Matter for Your Business Matt goes through each metric one-by-one. First, though, here are the metrics, organized into macroeconomic or business-level and microeconomic or unit-level. Macroeconomic (business-level) top line revenue cost of goods gross margin or gross profit operating expenses net profit Microeconomic (unit-level) churn rate (or retention rate) number of subscribers average ticket price lifetime value of client (LTV) per gross revenue per gross margin/profit customer acquisition cost (CAC) CAC:LTV ratio (as gross margin) monthly recurring revenue (MRR) Business Economics: Macroeconomic Metrics that Matter The first and easiest metric to calculate is top line revenue. This is the money that is coming in over a period of time, typically calculated monthly (and eventually quarterly and annually - though quarterly and annual numbers matter more for larger businesses). Whether you're looking at Stripe, ACH, the business bank account, this is simply calculating all the incoming money in a month. The cost of goods is the cost to produce the good itself. So, for producing a product, this is the cost of materials you purchase that go into the item and costs such as shipping. For a service business such as Barbell Logic, this looks like the pay to the 1099 contractor coaches per client. You calculate gross margin or gross profit by subtracting the cost of goods from top line revenue. Next, you need to identify operating expenses. These are things that are required for the business but not directly related to producing the individual service or good. This might be payroll for full-time employees, printer ink, paying for a new computer, squat racks, or taking a client to lunch. The last critical business-level metric to determine is your net profit. You calculate this by subtracting your operating expenses from your gross profit. This is truly how much money the business is making each month. If you're a one-man team, then you get paid from this. If you lose money, you don't get paid. As the owner or CEO, though, while you get paid last you also get fired last. Business Economics: Microeconomic Metrics that Matter Calculate your churn rate. This is the percentage of clients you lose each month. The retention rate is the opposite (100% - churn rate). Next note your number of subscribers. Matt says subscribers, because a customer who makes a one-time purchase (a one-time coaching session or purchases one widget) does not lead you to know what your recurring revenue is. You don't have recurring revenue in this situation. Next know your average ticket price. What are your subscribers paying each month on average. The number of subscribers multiplied by average ticked price equals your monthly recurring revenue (MRR). An important statistic to calculate is your lifetime value of client (LTV - especially at gross margin). The first thing you need to do is calculate the average customer lifespan. Divide 100 by the churn rate. So, for example, if you have 10% churn your average customer lifespan is 10 months. Below are more business economics metrics. MRR x average customer lifespan = LTV (at gross revenue) LTV (at gross revenue) x gross margin = LTV (at gross revenue) Calculate your customer acquisition cost (CAC) by adding together all efforts to acquire customers. This includes marketing, sales, ads, and content you produce to market (e.g. you create a weekly newsletter, podcast, or maintain a YouTube channel). The CAC:LTV ratio is important. 1:2 ratio is considered unhealthy or unsustainable. 1:3 is considered healthy. If your ratio is significantly less than 1:3 (e.g. 1:28) you should likely spend more money to acquire customers. These are the metrics that matter to your business. These are your business economics. Get Matched with a Professional Strength Coach today for FREE! No contract with us, just commitment to yourself: Start experiencing strength now: https://store.barbell-logic.com/match/ Connect with the hosts Matt on Instagram Niki on Instagram Andrew on Instagram Connect with the show Barbell Logic on Instagram Podcast Webpage Barbell Logic on Facebook Or email email@example.com
The Southeast's housing market remains robust, even as interest rates and a tight market hamper affordability. This episode of the Economy Matters podcast features a conversation with an Atlanta Fed housing expert on factors at work in the market.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome Rory Johnston as this weeks guest. Erik & Rory will discuss everything from the predictions of massive supply shortfalls to the U.S. SPR. https://bit.ly/49hmVPb Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 30: Fed FOMC Pause Continues, Treasuries, Bonds, National Deficit, and Macroeconomic OutlookThis episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on November 1st, 2023, prior to the FOMC Presser by Jerome Powell outlining the Fed's continued rate hike pause. Our panelists discuss everything from the U.S. Treasuries and Bonds to the U.S. deficit, and cover aspects of the markets we should keep an eye on moving forward.Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Lyn Alden https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactThelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngBob Elliott https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Michael Green https://twitter.com/profplum99Cem Karsan https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Unusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesDiscord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/unusualwhalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/Merch: https://unusual-whales.creator-spring.com/?**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You can lose some or all of your investment. See terms for more information.
Bidenomics | A Fake Narrative https://www.audacy.com/989wordThe Tara Show Follow us on Social MediaJoin our Live StreamWeekdays - 6am to 10am Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/989wordRumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-2031096X: https://twitter.com/989wordInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/989word/ "Red Meat, Greenville." 10/30/23
Observing the Reality of Inflation https://www.audacy.com/989wordThe Tara Show Follow us on Social MediaJoin our Live StreamWeekdays - 6am to 10am Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/989wordRumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-2031096X: https://twitter.com/989wordInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/989word/ "Red Meat, Greenville." 10/30/23
PJ Glandon is an associate professor of economics at Kenyon College, where he also serves as chair of the economics department. PJ joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent co-authored article, *Macroeconomics Research: Present and Past.* David and PJ also more broadly discuss the state of macroeconomics as a discipline, both in terms of research and pedagogy. Transcript for this week's episode. PJ's Twitter: @pjglandon PJ's Kenyon profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Macroeconomics Research, Present and Past* by PJ Glandon, Ken Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder, and Caleb Stroup *Let's Close the Gap: Updating the Textbook Treatment of Monetary Policy* by Jane Ihrig and Scott Wolla
It's a tale of two Pauls today...Great to see the return of Paul Correa, of Fiduciary Wealth Management in Gibraltar, to the Good Morning Portugal! show. Paul and team are "dedicated to helping expats and their families" when it comes to wealth management, specialising in Brits moving to and living on the Iberian Peninsula.Find him here - https://www.fiduciarywealth.gi/Also joining us, for the first time, Central Portugal-based artist Paul Woods, who'll be joining us with our good GuMPer mate Andy, AKA BairrAndy.What is it like to live in Portugal as an artist? Paul tells all... ---All that we do is made possible by our GMP! VIP supporters, Portugal Club members, as well as associates including Expats Portugal and channel sponsors UrHome/Dynasty Homes.Feel free to support the Good Morning Portugal! show and community by becoming a GMP! VIP or joining the Portugal Club at www.gmpvip.comLearn loads more about Portugal every day here - www.learnaboutportugal.comJoin Expats Portugal for access to top migration professionals, discounts and perks - https://expatsportugal.com/?wpam_id=27Check out Portugal's most exciting new sustainable development project - http://www.herdadedomeio.comNeed to exchange Dollars for Euros? Try https://www.goodmorningportugal.com/support-services/currency-exchangeContact Carl Munson - firstname.lastname@example.orgWant to create live shows like mine? Try https://streamyard.com/pal/d/4668289695875072
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam dug deep into the world of on-chain analysis with James Check and David Puell, exploring their new framework called Cointime Economics, and looking at trends on-chain that may signal a new bull market could be imminent."Cointime Economics: A New Framework for Bitcoin on-chain Analysis"https://20368641.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/20368641/Cointime%20Economics%20%5BDIGITAL%20SINGLE%5D.pdf00:00:00 “Swan Signal” Intro00:02:05 Introducing Checkmate and David Puell00:02:37 “Cointime Economics: A New Framework for Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis”00:04:30 What is a “UTXO”?00:06:41 Flaws of Traditional UTXO Analysis00:08:55 “Lost Coins”00:10:29 “Coin-days Destroyed”00:13:13 Measuring “Liveliness” in Bitcoin00:18:44 “Vaultedness” - Measuring Conviction for a Bitcoin Bull Case00:23:22 What is a “Coin-Block”?00:26:11 “The REAL Average Cost Basis” - Cointime: True Market Deviation (AVIV Ratio)00:35:47 Determining How Coins are Actually Lost00:38:40 “MVRV” - Comparing Market Value to Realize Value00:43:46 “Sell-Side Risk Ratio”00:51:20 What Checkmate and David are Seeing in the On-Chain Data00:56:28 Limitations with On-Chain Analytics00:59:54 The Most “Signal to Noise” OnChain Metrics01:03:10 How to Connect with Checkmate and David01:04:38 “Swan Signal” OutroConnect with Sam, David, and Checkmate:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahDavid Puell: https://twitter.com/dpuellARKJames Check: https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_Connect with Swan Bitcoin: YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_Bitcoin Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin Telegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoin LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoinSwan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin. Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Start your Bitcoin journey today, and your first $10 purchase is on us https://swanbitcoin.com/yt Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get your ticket for the Pacific Bitcoin Festival 2023 before prices increase! https://www.pacificbitcoin.com/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes https://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ira/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out the Bitcoin Canon a curated list of the best Bitcoin resources from your favorite experts https://swanbitcoin.com/cannon/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners by joining Swan Force https://www.swanbitcoin.com/enlist/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description
MacroVoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome Ole S Hansen as this week's guest. Ole says the bull market has paused in some commodities, but is set to continue. They also talk about crude oil and the debate over how big the Iran escalation risk is in the Israel conflict. https://bit.ly/46HF07i Ole's Charts: https://bit.ly/3MdGBtm Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
Ed Nelson is a senior advisor in the Monetary Affairs Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ed has also previously been a professor of economics at the University of Sydney and has worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as well as the Bank of England. Most importantly, however, Ed was also a former student of, and co-author with, the late Bennett McCallum, and he rejoins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about Bennett McCallum's life, his work, and his legacy within the field of monetary economics. Check out the entirety of the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Transcript for this week's episode. Ed's website Ed's Federal Reserve profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!
Recorded October 4, 2023 Signed on Oct. 1, 1953, in the wake of the armistice, the U.S.-South Korea alliance has matured into a dynamic partnership, deterring conflict and fostering cooperation with respect to trade, technology and people-to-people ties. This expert panel reflected on the legacy and future of the alliance. This program was jointly hosted by The Korea Society, the Korea Defense Veterans Association and the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. About the Speakers: Thomas J. Byrne joined The Korea Society as its President in August of 2015 following a distinguished career that included Senior Vice President of Moody's Investor Services and Senior Economist of the Asia Department at the Institute of International Finance. Byrne has an M.A. degree in International Relations with an emphasis on economics from The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Before doing graduate work at SAIS, he served in South Korea for three years as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer. His commentary on Korean affairs has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Financial Times among others. Stephen Haggard is the Lawrence and Sallye Krause Distinguished Professor and director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. He teaches courses on the international relations of the Asia-Pacific at GPS covering political economy as well as security issues. He has done extensive research on North Korea in particular. In addition, he has a long-standing interest in transitions to and from democratic rule and the current phenomenon of democratic backsliding. His recent research on South Korea addresses the issue of political polarization, including with respect to foreign policy. Allison Hooker is a foreign policy and national security specialist with 20 years of experience in the U.S. Government working on Asia. She served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia, where she led the coordination and implementation of U.S. policy toward the Indo-Pacific region. Prior to that, Hooker served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for the Korean Peninsula, where she staffed the U.S.-DPRK Summits in Singapore, Hanoi, and the DMZ. Prior to her service at the White House, Hooker was a senior analyst for North Korea in the Department of State and staffed the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program. She received a Masters' of Arts Degree in International Affairs from the George Washington University, and has been a research fellow at Osaka University and Keio University, where she focused on Japan-Korea relations, and Japan-China relations, respectively. Youngwan Kim is a career diplomat who joined the Foreign Ministry of the Republic of Korea in 1993. He worked at various Ministries of the Korean Government, including Foreign Ministry, Unification Ministry, and Office for Government Policy Coordination, Prime Minister's Office. Prior to his current post as Consul General in LA, he served as Director-General for National Security and Foreign Policy at the Prime Minister's office. He also worked as Director-General for Planning and Management of the Foreign Ministry. His most recent foreign post was a Member of the Panel of Experts, UN Security Council Sanctions Committee at the United Nations headquarter. His foreign posts also include Washington D.C., New York, Beijing and Baghdad. Munseob Lee is an economist who concentrates his research efforts on macroeconomics, growth and development, firm dynamics, and Korea. He has investigated the factors that determine the growth of firms, with a particular focus on how government purchases can promote long-term growth of small businesses. Additionally, he examined the disproportionate effect of inflation, revealing that low-income households and black families are the most affected by rising prices in the United States. Lee, who is an Associate Director in GPS's Korea-Pacific Program, teaches courses including Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Macroeconomics of Development and The Korean Economy. In 2019, General Curtis “Mike” Scaparrotti completed a distinguished 41-year career in the U.S. Army as the Commander, U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO. Prior to that he served as the Commander of U.S. Forces Korea / United Nations Command / Combined Forces Command in Seoul from 2013 to 2016. Other prominent postings in his highly-decorated career include Director of the Joint Staff, Commander of the International Security Assistance Force, the Deputy Commander of U.S. Forces – Afghanistan, the Commanding General of I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, and the Commanding General of the 82nd Airborne Division. Additionally, over the years, General Scaparrotti served in key leadership positions at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. He has commanded forces during Operations Iraqi Freedom, Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan), Support Hope (Zaire/Rwanda), Joint Endeavor (Bosnia-Herzegovina), and Assured Response (Liberia). General Scaparrotti holds a Master's degree in Administrative Education from the University of South Carolina. In addition to his work with The Cohen Group, General Scaparrotti sits on the boards iof the Atlantic Council and Patriot Foundation, and is a Senior Fellow at the National Defense University. Yoo Myung-