The Living Market Podcast

U.S. bonds took centre stage again this week, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. This was due to President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade. Philip says that U.S. Treasury bonds are now considered almost as risky as Microsoft's; he explains how we got to this unusual situation and what it means for investors. 

Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, discusses the recent downgrade of U.S. debt by Moody's and Fitch, and why these downgrades matter more symbolically than financially. He explains the market's reaction to past downgrades and the underlying reasons why Treasuries remain a safe haven, despite the ratings.

Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management delves into the recent 90-day mutual tariff reduction deal between the U.S. and China and its immediate impact on global markets. He explains how the reduction in tariffs has provided much-needed relief, leading to a surge in equities, but also cautions that deeper issues in the trade relationship remain unresolved. Ashish discusses the potential long-term implications and why investors should maintain a balanced perspective, despite the current market optimism.

In this special edition of The Living Market, Aurèle Courcelles Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning at IG Wealth Management and Dan Britton, Assistant Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning at IG Wealth Management, discuss the key elements of a comprehensive estate plan and why it's crucial for Canadians. They explore the common misconceptions about estate planning, the importance of having a will and the potential pitfalls of not considering joint ownership and beneficiary designations. Dan also provides practical advice on how to get started with estate planning and the critical role of communication with your chosen executor.

Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, discusses the recent market turnaround and the shift in sentiment from negative to positive. He explains why this positive stance is more about technical factors and market structure, rather than improved fundamentals. Ashish also explores the potential tailwinds and underlying risks, including the impact of trade tensions on the real economy.

Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, discusses the implications of the election on the Canadian market and currency. He explores the potential impacts on trade policy, energy and resources, and fiscal measures, and explains why the election results are likely to bring more stability and less uncertainty for investors.

Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management discusses the unexpected strengthening of the Canadian dollar. He explores the conflicting narratives driving this trend, from the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts to the broader implications of U.S. political policies, and what it all means for investors.

  The Bank of Canada gave us no hike, no cut and no forecasts for growth or inflation, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He says the bank's recent decision to stand firm at 2.75% reflects a cautious “wait and see” approach in the face of global and domestic uncertainties. Philip delves into the bank's well-balanced statement, the clashing forces of economic slowdown and tariff-driven cost increases, and why staying put might be the best strategy in such a volatile environment.

This is a very different environment compared to other historical periods of volatility, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. This one was caused by political policy, rather than a financial shock, so it should be temporary. If that's the case, how do we know when to jump back into equities? Philip outlines three pieces of market data (including the CBOE Volatility Index, elevated one- and two-day drops in market value, and investor pessimism) that suggest that now may be the time to capitalize on lower equity prices. 

For nearly 15 years, the U.S. stock market has been the standout performer, but is that about to change? Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explores the economic implications of U.S. government deficits, the rise of European fiscal spending and the recalibration of tech giants' growth narratives. Philip discusses the potential shift in global investment trends and the opportunities in commodities and Chinese equities.

With the market officially in correction territory, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson says that the big question on most investors' lips now is: when will the market rally begin? Philip explains what defines corrections and bear markets, and discusses the statistics that market analysts use to help them predict the timing of market recoveries. While having the odds on your side is no guarantee of winning, the CBOE Volatility Index has successfully predicted most recent market upturns.

IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson delves into the economic and market implications of President Trump's trade policies. By focusing on empirical data and practical outcomes, Philip examines how tariffs have affected consumer prices, employment, the trade deficit, and international relations. Despite the intended protective measures, the data suggests that tariffs have led to higher costs for consumers, job losses in certain sectors, and increased economic uncertainty.

The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates, but not for the reasons you might think, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Governor Macklem emphasized the recent strength of the Canadian economy and labour market, making it clear that the cut was a direct response to the tariffs imposed by President Trump. Philip explores the implications of this decision and the balancing act the bank faces.

While the U.S.'s 25% tariffs will undoubtedly have negative impacts on both the U.S. and Canadian economies, it's not all bad news, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. He discusses three key outcomes, including the opportunities to be had as tariff chaos knocks the markets. As Philip says, now is the time to be a hunter, not a sheep.

In a world of constant political and market uncertainty, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson, revisits the rules he developed during the global financial crisis to help investors navigate today's volatile environment. From vanquishing fear and panic to understanding the economic landscape and keeping a long-term perspective, Philip provides practical advice to stay resilient and capitalize on opportunities. Join us as we explore how to survive a Trump attack and maintain a level head in the market.

The markets are up probably more than anyone expected so far this year, says Ashish Utarid, IG Wealth Management's Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy. In spite of ongoing threats of trade tariffs, AI and growth stocks continue to perform well, and even last year's worst-performing stocks are bouncing back. Ashish covers the three main reasons behind the markets' current momentum and discusses how long we can expect to see it continue. 

Gold has performed really well in recent years, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Over the last one, three and five years, it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index. With gold once more making waves, Philip examines how gold is valued (including why it's currently worth way more than its extraction costs), the history behind gold's correlation with the U.S. dollar and how it acts as a safe haven, especially when political change leads to economic and market uncertainty.

There's been a lot of noise around trade announcements, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson, and it's easy to assume the worst. However, Philip explains how trade tensions are nothing new and that this uncertainty can bring opportunities for Canada. He discusses the likelihood of tariffs being imposed on Canada, how tariffs on China could benefit Canadian exports and why potential tariffs on Europe could be a boost for Canadian-made cars.

In this special edition of the podcast, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson is joined by Aurèle Courcelles, Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning at IG, as they discuss the essentials of retirement income. Aurèle explains how it's important to plan your retirement paycheque in advance and how to work out how much it should be, depending on the kind of retirement you want. He also outlines all the potential sources of retirement income, and how to minimize your retirement tax bill and government clawbacks.

Investors can get caught up in politics, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson, but it's far more important to focus on current market and economic fundamentals. He gives a breakdown of three key economic truths; a solid U.S. economy, with low unemployment and encouraging growth expectations; forecasts for improved corporate earnings and greater manufacturing; and a realistic investor sentiment that is avoiding over-confidence.

There's a big divide within the investing community as to what value investing is and whether it's relevant, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. However, Philip believes that valuation always matters, it just needs redefining. He explains what value investing is, why it's underperformed recently and which metrics to use to discover value stocks with real potential.  

To begin the new year, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson decides to deviate from his usual balanced approach and go all out with his wildest and most fearless predictions for 2025. Philip offers five possible scenarios, including a Chinese equities renaissance, a boom in mergers and acquisitions, a culling of profitless tech companies and the energy consequences of a continuing surge in AI investment.

The Canadian dollar was struggling even before this week's political turmoil, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. A soft economy and the difference in monetary policy between Canada and the U.S. had already pushed the loonie down toward US$0.70. The uncertainty following Chrystia Freeland's resignation means the loonie is likely to lose even more value. Philip discusses the potential market beneficiaries of such a weakened loonie.

There are several risks we should expect to come across in the new year, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. These include central bank rate cuts (or the lack of them), high valuations, extreme consumer optimism, ongoing geopolitical risks and highly concentrated equities. Philip offers advice on how to protect your portfolio from the volatility that some of these risks could cause, while also taking advantage of the opportunities that they could bring. 

November was a surprisingly good month for U.S. equities after a disappointing October, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Not only did the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 enjoy the best monthly returns of the year, but they were both outshone by the Russell 2000 (the index of smaller U.S. companies), which saw a monthly increase of 11%, a direct result of euphoria surrounding Trump's America First agenda. Philip asks, is this performance sustainable, or have markets become complacent, ignoring some persistent risks? 

In this special podcast, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson presents his economic outlook for the new year. He discusses how growing demand and manufacturing are boosting the global economy, how inflation is likely to develop, the pros and cons of a weak Canadian dollar and diverging central bank policies. Philip also explains how bonds are poised to deliver good long-term returns, which could in turn put pressure on stock prices. He feels that this pressure, along with overly high equity valuations, will make disciplined stock selection even more important.

The Forgotten 493 and smaller U.S. companies have been making a comeback since the U.S. elections, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. These smaller companies derive most of their income from within the U.S. and so are considered more likely to benefit from the American-first policies expected from the incoming government. Philip says that it's the ideal time to start broadening your exposure by looking beyond the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia and Meta) and considering smaller U.S. companies.

Markets have been on a wild ride since the U.S. election results, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. The S&P 500 reached a new high, bitcoin mania is back, and credit spreads are reaching levels not seen in over a decade. However, Ashish believes that markets are too eager to price in the benefits while ignoring the risks. He explains the differences in market conditions between the beginning of Trump's first and second terms, and why he recommends a more cautious approach.

IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson discusses the most important things to understand to make sense of the market's reaction to the U.S. election results. He explains how the post-election period has historically been a favourable time for the stock market, and how tax cuts, trade tariffs and futures are likely to pan out. He also provides three key take-aways around equity performance, long bond yields and U.S./Canadian dollar valuations.

The end of the year is often a time when investors think about ways to minimize next year's tax bill, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. In this special edition of the podcast, Philip and his guest, IG's Aurèle Courcelles, Assistant Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning, explain how to make tax-efficient charitable donations. Aurèle discusses how to reduce your tax bill with in-kind donations, life insurance donations and charitable foundations.

Canadian consumers have been in need of some serious interest rate relief, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson, and the Bank of Canada gave them just that this week, with a half-a-percentage-point rate cut. While this came as little surprise (markets had been pricing in this rate cut for a couple of weeks) it was still very welcome. Philip explains what this will mean for mortgage holders, the loonie and the economy, and what kind of cuts we might expect going forward.

If elected, Donald Trump is promising to impose higher tariffs on imports from China and other countries, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. Tariffs are designed to protect domestic industries, incentivize change in foreign countries and generate revenue for the U.S. federal government. However, as Ashish explains, there are several negative side effects to tariffs that could have a significant impact on the U.S. economy in 2025.  

In the Bank of Canada's (BoC) next meeting, a larger-than-previously-expected rate cut of 0.5 percentage points is likely, says Pierre-Benoît Gauthier, Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. Given that inflation has been tamed (it's now down to 2% — or 0.5% if you cut out shelter costs) and the economy has stalled in the last couple of years, it makes sense that the BoC will surprise us with a larger rate cut. Pierre-Benoît explains what this will mean for investors.

In his review of the third quarter of the year, IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson delves into the reasons behind investors' growing enthusiasm for higher-risk investments. He also gives an overview of the quarter's highlights, including Canadian, European and (finally) U.S. central banks cutting interest rates (having won the battle with inflation); the shift to supporting weakening labour markets; the effects of Chinese stimulus measures; and the likely impact of the upcoming American elections.

China is finally getting serious about its economy and its stock market, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. After seeing Chinese stocks lose $6 trillion in value over the last three years, the People's Bank of China has just announced some significant policies aimed at giving its ailing stock market a huge boost. Philip discusses whether these policies will be enough to make a difference and asks, if they do succeed, what will the consequences be for other world economies?

The longest inverted yield curve in history is finally coming to an end, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. An inverted yield curve is when long-term bonds have lower yields than short-term bonds (an unnatural situation, given that long-term bonds are riskier and therefore typically provide a higher return). Ashish explains what the end of an inverted yield curve has historically meant for the markets and whether it could signal an upcoming recession.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) needs to tread carefully with any upcoming rate cuts, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Many financial commentators are expecting a significant cut (of 50 basis points) because of weakening economic data and a more volatile market. However, Philip asks, will a large rate cut have the right effect? He argues that it's not the Fed's job to soothe the markets and that we should keep rate cut expectations real.

Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company run by Warren Buffet, recently hit the $1-trillion-value mark, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Since 1987, Buffet's company has returned an average of 16.7% annually, considerably more than the S&P 500's average return of around 11% over the same period. Philip explains why the company often performs well when markets are down and why his team's tactical tilts are mirroring those of Berkshire Hathaway; cutting stakes in equities and boosting the fixed income portion.

What drives one stock index to outperform another? This is the key question that IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson explores in considering whether recent gains on the S&P/TSX Composite are coming from the success of the companies that make up the index, or are the gains the output of something else altogether.

IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson reviews the most recent earnings season. This is when companies report their quarterly revenue (sales) and earnings (profits). Philip explains the difference between the two, how disappointing revenue can still result in increased earnings, which sectors were this season's winners and losers, and what needs to happen for S&P 500 stocks to continue to increase in value.

It's easy for market participants to get obsessed with tiny details, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Right now, it's an obsession with the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move on cutting rates, which would require an acceptance that the economy is weakening. At the same time, however, markets expect earnings to grow by 10% over the next 12 months, suggesting a strong economy. Given this paradox, Philip says that now is the time to step back from the minute details and focus on what is currently crucial for investment portfolios.

On Monday, Japan's Nikkei index saw its worst two-day drop ever, having reached an all-time high just three weeks ago, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy. While several factors were in play, one in particular seemed to spark this extreme volatility: the carry trade. Ashish explains how a carry trade works, how it's at risk from currency fluctuations and what you can do to help protect your portfolio from this kind of volatility.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to stay put and follow market expectations by not cutting rates. However, by changing its statement, the Fed set expectations for a September cut, saying that job gains have moderated and that inflation was now only “somewhat elevated.” Ashish Utarid, IG Wealth Management's Assistant Vice-President of Investment Strategy, asks, “Will the Fed's eventual rate cut come too late?”

Having just announced a second interest rate cut that quickly followed the first, what's next for the Bank of Canada? asks IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. The bank has clearly switched its priorities from fighting inflation (a battle it has surely won) to supporting the Canadian economy. Philip discusses the probable rate cuts ahead, the likely timing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to start following Canada's lead, and what this will all mean to consumers and the economy.

Some commentators are worried about a market recovery where most gains are coming from a small percentage of companies, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. There is a fear that many of these large companies are very expensive, with overly high expectations. However, Philip explains that in this weird bull market — where most companies have underperformed so far — if the big companies start seeing a correction, another sector will be ready to step in to take its place.

Labour has been traded for food, shelter and clothing for thousands of years, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. It's the currency that keeps the world spinning and plays an important role in our understanding of the economic landscape. Philip explains why the most recent labour statistics raised some eyebrows and what they mean for the economy and your investments.

The economy can be similar to those moments in-between old and new seasons, says Ashish Utarid, AVP, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. Similar to how the transition from spring to summer can bring hot days followed by cooler periods, the economy can also show signs of this dual nature, with some sectors thriving far more than others. Ashish says that these moments can deliver hidden gems, and it's crucial to position your portfolio to benefit from the unique opportunities available.  

Inflation increased slightly in May, to 2.9%. Not only is this disappointing, but it also suggests that it will be a long road ahead to getting inflation down to 2%, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. He explains why bonds are not the answer to counteracting the effects of inflation, and how, historically, equities have been effective in growing your money's value when inflation is high.

While U.S. equities are flirting with all-time highs, there is some concern that they may be hitting a peak, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Has the market gone too far, too fast? Philip outlines the telltale signs to watch out for that typically signal when a bull market is running out of steam. These include the yield curve, manufacturing activity, employment levels and stock price value. He also answers the question: is it better to sell early or late when the market is peaking?

Macroeconomic data is mixed across the board, says IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Consumer spending is inconsistent, and unemployment is rising, yet company earnings are still growing. Philip discusses the kinds of companies and sectors that are likely to do well in this environment and makes suggestions for how you can help make sure your portfolio is well-positioned for what's in store.

This week, the Bank of Canada finally announced a cut in its key interest rate (by a quarter of a percentage point) to 4.75%. IG Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson says that, while this is a good start, it will take more than one small rate cut to make any significant difference to the economy. He explores what still needs to be done, what we can expect in the coming months and what this will mean for the loonie.