Podcasts about canada boc

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2024 19:13

On December 11, 2024, Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut interest rates by half a percent, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25%. This change has significant implications for variable rate mortgages and lines of credit, while fixed rates remain influenced by bond yields. Banks are also adjusting discounts on variable rates due to increased demand. Furthermore, new mortgage rules introduced 30-year amortizations for insured loans and first-time buyers with less than 20% down. Economist Derek Holt from Scotiabank calls it a hawkishly large cut, sparking discussions about future rate trends and potential impacts from international factors like U.S. tariffs. The episode also covers how these changes may affect the Canadian real estate market, with projections indicating a possible early spring market favoring sellers and increased property transactions. Alex McFadyen is a seasoned independent mortgage broker with over 11 years of experience in the industry. Alex is the owner and Mortgage Advisor of Flow Mortgage Co. Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug ********** Ready to take the plunge into homeownership? Don't miss our comprehensive First-Time Home Buyers Course available at the link below. This essential resource is designed to guide you through the maze of purchasing your first home with confidence and ease. Free for a limited time to listeners of the show! https://alex-s-school-7883.thinkific.com/courses/first-time-home-buyer-course For daily insights, make sure to find us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube: @flowmortgageco Don't just dream about your future home, make it a reality! Subscribe to "The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show" for more invaluable insights, and visit our website at getflowmortgage.ca to discover how we can help make your property aspirations come true.

canada social media canadian drop bank banks big banks scotiabank money show mortgage advisor tiff macklem canada boc alex mcfadyen

Bank of Canada Slashes Rates: What It Means for Mortgages, Housing, and the Economy

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2024 23:42

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points this week, bringing it to 3.25%, the lowest level in over two years. This significant cut, which follows weaker-than-expected GDP growth and rising unemployment, has increased buying power for borrowers by 21%, enabling higher mortgage affordability. However, questions remain about whether these rate cuts are sufficient to revive the economy and ease challenges for mortgage holders renewing at higher rates in 2025. Despite the BoC's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target and avoiding a recession next year, rising insolvencies and declining consumer confidence suggest significant financial strain for many Canadians.Economic indicators paint a concerning picture. Unemployment has risen to 6.8%, the highest in eight years outside of the pandemic, with Toronto particularly hard hit, where the jobless rate has surged by 47% year-over-year. Consumer and business insolvencies are climbing sharply, especially in Ontario, which saw its highest single-month insolvency filings in 14 years. Additionally, consumer confidence has experienced its steepest decline since mid-2022, casting doubt on near-term economic resilience compounded by reduced immigration forecasts, slowing housing starts, and looming risks from potential U.S. tariffs.The housing market remains a mixed bag. Toronto sales rose 39% year-over-year in November, with prices showing a slight monthly increase, but pre-construction sales have collapsed by 84% over the past year. Nationally, arrears rates have remained stable at 0.2%, supported by significant home equity gains over the past five years. This equity provides homeowners with options, such as re-amortizing mortgages or downsizing, to mitigate financial pressures. Meanwhile, affordability is improving incrementally. Monthly mortgage payments for a typical Vancouver home have dropped 19% from 2023 peaks, and rental rates are also declining, signaling some relief for buyers and renters alike.Looking ahead, the BoC is expected to implement further rate cuts in early 2025, with a potential pause to assess the economy's state. However, with unemployment rising, consumer spending weakening, and housing construction slowing, the path to recovery remains uncertain. While rate cuts may provide temporary relief, deeper structural challenges in Canada's economy suggest a long road ahead. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

canada canadian toronto bank economy vancouver ontario economic housing consumer rates mortgage gdp unemployment nationally boc slashes prec reia econo canada boc

Will Bank of Canada Fire Up the Market for 2025? -E64

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 28:37

In this episode, host Alex McFadyen of Flow Mortgage Co. discusses the highly anticipated Bank of Canada (BOC) rate announcement, its impact on the housing market, and the mixed reactions of various stakeholders. He delves into the recent Canadian job report, highlighting a spike in unemployment and its implications for the BOC's decision to potentially cut interest rates. McFadyen also examines the introduction of new insured mortgage rules effective December 15, including the 30-year amortization update, and their potential influence on the real estate market. Lastly, he touches on changes to the stress test for uninsured mortgage transfers and what this means for homeowners. The episode is packed with critical insights to help navigate the upcoming shifts in the Canadian real estate landscape. Alex McFadyen is a seasoned independent mortgage broker with over 11 years of experience in the industry. Alex is the owner and Mortgage Advisor of Flow Mortgage Co. Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug ********** Ready to take the plunge into homeownership? Don't miss our comprehensive First-Time Home Buyers Course available at the link below. This essential resource is designed to guide you through the maze of purchasing your first home with confidence and ease. Free for a limited time to listeners of the show! https://alex-s-school-7883.thinkific.com/courses/first-time-home-buyer-course For daily insights, make sure to find us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube: @flowmortgageco Don't just dream about your future home, make it a reality! Subscribe to "The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show" for more invaluable insights, and visit our website at getflowmortgage.ca to discover how we can help make your property aspirations come true.

canada social media canadian market bank fire up boc money show mortgage advisor canada boc alex mcfadyen

Real Estate Shake-Up! Inflation Drops, Rate Cuts, & New Policies Explained

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2024 44:24

This week has been monumental for Vancouver's real estate market, with several key factors influencing housing and the broader economic landscape. Inflation has officially hit 2%, marking a significant milestone for the Bank of Canada (BOC) as it reaches its target for the first time in nearly four years. While the broader inflation rate stands at 2%, if the mortgage interest component is excluded, inflation would be just 0.9%, signaling a rapid decline in core inflation metrics. However, rental inflation remains elevated at 8.6%, though this is expected to decrease in the coming months as rent prices have been falling for about a year, potentially pushing inflation even lower. As a result, markets are now pricing in rate cuts at every BOC meeting until at least the summer of 2025, with an estimated 1.75 basis points reduction by July 2025. The five-year bond, crucial for mortgage rates, is now trending downward at 2.7%, the lowest in over two years.On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve made a notable move by cutting its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the first such reduction in over four years. This marks a shift from controlling inflation to supporting a slowing labor market. The Fed's decision to lower rates from 5.3% to 4.8% signals a major adjustment as inflation in the U.S. has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.5% in August, aligning closely with the Fed's 2% target. Policymakers have indicated further cuts this year, with more anticipated in 2025 and 2026. Adding to the shake-up, the federal government of Canada announced that it will increase the price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million, a surprise to both the industry and policymakers. While many in the real estate sector championed the change, it's important to examine who this adjustment really benefits. Although extending the amortization period to 30 years from 25 years helps reduce monthly payments by about 9%, it also increases the long-term interest paid by homebuyers, with an additional $80,000 paid over the life of a mortgage. More critically, this move likely pushes the price band of homes in this range up by 9%, doing little to address affordability. Historically, the CMHC was designed to help veterans and lower-income buyers, but this increase will likely push prices higher, benefiting banks and investors more than first-time homebuyers. With the minimum down payment on a $1.5 million home being $125,000, this policy change seems to cater more to affluent buyers, as only 15% of Canadian households could qualify for such a mortgage. Despite these hurdles, this adjustment will create more demand in the $1 million to $1.5 million price band, potentially driving prices higher, which contradicts the notion of increasing affordability.This week's developments reflect the complex and often contradictory forces shaping the Vancouver real estate market. Inflation is cooling, but rate cuts are on the horizon, and new policies, like the increase in the insured mortgage cap, seem to be helping banks more than first-time homebuyers. Housing starts are down, and developers are grappling with higher fees, all while household debt continues to climb. The fall real estate market in Vancouver appears to be on shaky ground, and without significant changes to housing policy or economic conditions, the outlook remains uncertain. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update for September 2024

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2024 24:28

In the first week of September, the Vancouver real estate market received an update that reflects significant shifts. August numbers reveal that home prices have dropped even further, with detached homes now firmly in a buyer's market—a term seldom used in Vancouver. Compounding this, the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut interest rates for the third time, and all indicators point to more cuts ahead. As we move into the traditionally active Fall market, many wonder if September will mark a turning point, leading to a rebound in prices, or if the downward trend will continue throughout 2024.A closer look at the BOC's rate cut decision reveals that inflation has eased, with recent data showing inflation at a 40-month low. The central bank has reiterated its goal of bringing inflation down to 2%, and Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments suggest that additional cuts are likely if economic data continues to support them. The financial markets have already priced in another 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a full reduction by December.Interestingly, the BOC acknowledged the upward pressure on inflation from housing and shelter costs, even though national trends show rental rates and home prices have been falling for months. As these lagging indicators catch up, inflation is expected to ease further. Macklem also hinted that while inflation may drop, housing prices could begin to rise again as interest rates fall and market activity strengthens.Bond markets have also responded to the recent rate cut, with the Canadian five-year bond dropping to an 18-month low of 2.84%, signaling that fixed mortgage rates could follow suit in the coming weeks. Additionally, contrary to expectations, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar following the cuts—a potential signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve might also be gearing up to reduce rates at their upcoming September meeting.Turning to Vancouver's August real estate statistics, the market saw continued slow sales with a total of 1,896 transactions, marking a 17% year-over-year decline and a 23% drop from July. This represents the fourth consecutive month of falling sales, making August 2023 one of the weakest on record. The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 14%, down 3% from last month and marking the fifth monthly decline in a row. We use this metric to determine if we are in a Buyers or Sellers' market. Detached homes are seeing a ratio of just 9%, deep in buyers' market territory. Meanwhile, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) recorded its third consecutive monthly decline, down 0.2% month-over-month and 0.9% year-over-year, bringing the benchmark price to $1,195,900.While the median price has fallen to $945,000 and the average price to $1,252,000—both back to January 2024 levels—the HPI remains a more stable indicator, smoothing out some of the month-to-month volatility.As we head into Fall, the big question remains: will inventory continue to rise as sales volumes decrease, as seen after the previous rate cuts, or will the market stabilize? With 1,050 new listings and 205 sales recorded in the first two business days of September, the upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory for the rest of the year. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

fall canadian turning bank vancouver bond buyers sellers federal reserve real estate markets market updates compounding detached hpi boc real estate market update prec reia vancouver real estate canada boc

"Green shoots" sprouting in Canada's fall housing market: RE/MAX - Calgary - Canada's Podcast

Canada's Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2024 5:11

While average residential sale prices are likely to increase in the majority markets analyzed, there are a couple of outliers where prices are anticipated to be flat or decline, including Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay and London, it said. The report said 25 per cent of Canadians expressed that saving for a home purchase is one of their top three priorities when it comes to financial savings, despite high cost of living and affordability challenges. In a video interview, Christopher Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada, talks about the company's latest report – the Fall Housing Market Outlook. The video can be seen here. PRESS RELEASE TORONTO, Sept. 3, 2024 /CNW/ — With the long-anticipated decline in interest rates finally starting to materialize, early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada suggest steady housing market activity this fall. Average sale prices across all housing types are expected to increase between one and six per cent in the majority of regions by year's end, according to RE/MAX's 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook. Ahead of the next Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement on September 4, two in 10 Canadians (16 per cent) said they will feel more comfortable engaging in the real estate market once they see there is more than a 100-basis-point cut to the BoC's lending rate between now and the end of the year, according to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX as part of the report. Chris Alexander “The fall market is usually a good early indicator for activity as we look ahead to early 2025, and we're headed toward more healthy territory. With interest rates starting to ease, buyers are beginning to come off the sidelines,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “That's not to say the fall market will be in full swing according to historic standards. Consumers will drive that trend, so we'll need to see a bigger move by the Bank of Canada for that to happen.” Consumer Sentiments Going into the Fall Market Ahead of further anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, it seems that even the mere prospect of lower rates has boosted confidence among first-time homebuyers, with one-quarter of Canadians (25 per cent) actively saving for a home purchase and confident they will be able to buy soon (with the majority being younger Millennials and Gen Zs aged 18-24, at 35 per cent). On the flipside, dropping interest rates now may prove too little, too late for some current homeowners, with 14 per cent saying they need to renew their mortgage soon, and with the current higher interest rate, they may need to sell their home. When it comes to financial savings, the Leger survey revealed that while a home purchase is listed among the top three priorities for 25 per cent of Canadians, it has taken a back seat to day-to-day expenses such as utilities and food (58 per cent), and travel (45 per cent). In the search for affordability, one-quarter of Canadians say that they are considering moving to another country (28 per cent) and 25 per cent say they are reconsidering whether to have children or start a family due to housing affordability challenges. “Despite some consumer confidence starting to return to the market this season, the reality is Canadians are still grappling with some serious housing affordability challenges rooted in lack of supply. Yes, borrowing is becoming less expensive, but this won't make housing affordable in the long run,” says Alexander. “Markets ebb and flow, and as buyers re-enter the market and absorb inventory, we'll see more upward pressure on price. “Ultimately, for the long-term health of Canada's housing market, we need a national housing strategy developed in collaboration between all levels of government, that's more strategic and visionary in how we can use existing lands and real estate to boost supply. In the meantime, buyers would be wise to work with an experienced real estate agent to help navigate those cyclical market ups and downs that often accompany this push and pull of supply and demand.” Regional Market Insights As part of the 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to share an analysis of their local market between January and July 2023 and 2024 and share their estimated outlook for fall 2024. The majority of regions (76 per cent) anticipate an increase in sale price between one to six per cent, including Greater Vancouver Area, BC; Calgary, AB; Edmonton, AB; Saskatoon, SK; Winnipeg, MB; Halifax, NS; St. John's Metro, NL; Truro/Colchester, NS; Fredericton, NB; Timmins, ON; Sudbury, ON; Brampton, ON; Mississauga, ON; Niagara, ON; Ottawa, ON; Durham, ON; Barrie, ON; Muskoka, ON; Peterborough, ON; York Region, ON; Kingston, ON; Windsor, ON, and Thunder Bay, ON. Exceptions to the upward trend include Toronto, ON; Hamilton, ON; Burlington, ON; and Kitchener-Waterloo, ON, where a moderate decline between two and three per cent is expected, and Charlottetown, PEI; North Bay, ON, and London, ON, where prices will likely remain flat. When it comes to listings, a majority of regions surveyed (82 per cent) saw the number of listings increase between 2.3 and 34.7 per cent between January and July (2023 – 2024). The number of sale transactions also increased between 3.1 and 7.4 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 3.4 to 30.9 per cent in Western Canada, and between 0.6 and 14.8 per cent in Ontario, except for some larger Ontario markets like Toronto, Brampton, Durham Region, Mississauga, Peterborough and York Region, where sales trended downward. According to RE/MAX brokers' insights, 33 per cent of housing markets are expected to be seller's markets, but this may shift as competition increases and market conditions evolve. To view the regional data table, click here. Western Canada and Prairies The Prairies continue to skew towards a seller's market (Edmonton, AB; Calgary, AB; Saskatoon, SK) which is consistent with 2023, except for Winnipeg, MB, which is a balanced market. On the other hand, in Western Canada, inclusive of the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, and Kelowna, BC, a mix of balanced and buyer's markets are anticipated. Heading into the fall, prices are forecasted to increase by two to six per cent in regions like the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, and Kelowna, BC; Calgary, AB; Edmonton, AB; Saskatoon, SK; and Winnipeg, MB. Sale transactions are anticipated to increase by five to 15 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area, BC; Edmonton, AB; and Winnipeg, MB; and a decrease of one per cent in Saskatoon, SK, due to inventory shortages, while Calgary, AB anticipates sales will remain flat. RE/MAX broker feedback in Regina, SK indicates that many factors will dictate how the market pans out for the remainder of the year, including government election cycles, The Bank of Canada interest rate announcements and inventory levels. Historically, Regina, SK sees the markets cool from mid-September through the end of the year. All markets in Western Canada and The Prairies – apart from the Greater Vancouver Area, BC – continue to experience supply challenges, with increased activity in the market, as consumers benefit from recent interest rate cuts. Lower mortgage rates have bolstered consumer confidence in the market but paired with low supply, RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region are reporting aggressive offers in conjunction with sellers raising asking prices for residential homes. Ontario Despite The Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts, low housing supply continues to impact multiple markets across Ontario, keeping prices high. However, some buyers are gaining more confidence as mortgage rates decrease and are slowly re-entering the market heading into fall, keeping prices relatively stable in comparison to the year prior. Housing supply is expected to become a larger issue once further interest rate cuts motivate buyers on the sidelines to re-enter the market and spark more competition. Although some homebuyer confidence is starting to return, buyers in Toronto remain hesitant as affordability continues to be a challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers. Across Ontario, 12 regions are expecting average residential prices to remain flat or increase modestly heading into the fall. Increasing markets include Timmins, Sudbury, Brampton, Mississauga, Thunder Bay, and Barrie (each rising five per cent), Peterborough, York Region and Kingston (rising three per cent), Niagara (up two per cent), Durham Region and Ottawa (up one per cent), and London (rising a nominal 0.5 per cent). The outliers to this upward trend are Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and Burlington, which are expecting a price decrease. In Ontario, seven markets are expected to experience balanced conditions this fall, while four are anticipated to be seller's markets, and five are buyer's markets. Four markets are expecting a mix, with three buyers/balanced conditions, and one sellers/balanced market. Atlantic Canada Echoing similarities to other regions across Canada, Atlantic Canada is also reporting low inventory supply and increased competition when it comes to buyer activity. Buyers are competing aggressively on affordable housing and new listings, causing prices to spike. This is likely a result of current supply challenges and an increase in out-of-town buyers from Western and Central Canada. Unlike in 2023, average residential prices in Atlantic Canada are expected to increase for the remainder of year, by five per cent in Truro and Colchester, NS, one per cent in Halifax, NS, 1.5 per cent in St. John's Metro, NL, and two per cent in Fredericton, NB, while Charlottetown, PEI is anticipated to remain flat. All markets in Atlantic Canada with the exception of Charlottetown – which is a buyer's market – are considered to be seller's markets. Quebec Like other regions across the country, Montreal's housing shortage coupled with interest rates have resulted in a seller's market, with buyers making multiple offers on properties to remain competitive or opting to wait on the sidelines. Pricing and marketing are crucial for sellers looking to attract hesitant buyers. Additional survey findings: Majority of Canadians (77 per cent) believe steps taken by municipal, provincial, and federal governments to improve housing inventory and affordability are not enough to solve our affordability crisis and more needs to be done 60 per cent of Canadians believe building more diverse types of housing are the key to solving Canada's housing supply challenges For 16 per cent of Canadians, rising cost-of-living and affordability challenges have not deterred them at all, and they plan to purchase another home beyond their primary residence soon (or have recently) 40 per cent of Canadians feel Canada is one of the best countries in the world to purchase/invest in real estate (notably this number is higher at 52 per cent, for new Canadians that have been in Canada for less than 5 years) One-third of Canadians (32 per cent) said they are relying on their home as their only financial plan for retirement. About Leger Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,530 Canadians aged 18 years or older, was completed between August 9 and 11, 2024, using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. About the RE/MAX Network As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario–Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca. Mario Toneguzzi Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada's Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024. About Us Canada's Podcast is the number one podcast in Canada for entrepreneurs and business owners. Established in 2016, the podcast network has interviewed over 600 Canadian entrepreneurs from coast-to-coast. With hosts in each province, entrepreneurs have a local and national format to tell their stories, talk about their journey and provide inspiration for anyone starting their entrepreneurial journey and well- established founders. The commitment to a grass roots approach has built a loyal audience on all our social channels and YouTube – 500,000+ lifetime YouTube views, 200,000 + audio downloads, 35,000 + average monthly social impressions, 10,000 + engaged social followers and 35,000 newsletter subscribers. Canada's Podcast is proud to provide a local, national and international presence for Canadian entrepreneurs to build their brand and tell their story #business #CanadasNumberOnePodcastforEntrepreneurs #entrepreneurs #entrepreneurship #Homes #Housing #RealEstate #smallbusiness

Will The Bank of Canada Keep Dropping Rates This Week? -E50

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2024 22:35

In this episode, Alex McFadyen from Flow Mortgage Co. discusses the anticipated Bank of Canada (BOC) rate cut expected on September 4th, and its potential repercussions for the Canadian real estate and mortgage markets. The episode delves into the recent US economic data, Canadian bond yields, fixed and variable mortgage rates, and strategies for consumers managing renewals. It also touches on long-term real estate market trends and offers advice for current and prospective homeowners. Alex emphasizes the importance of having a strategy and staying informed in a fluctuating market. Listeners are encouraged to engage with the content through reviews and direct contact. Alex McFadyen is a seasoned independent mortgage broker with over 11 years of experience in the industry. Alex is the owner and Mortgage Advisor of Flow Mortgage Co. Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug ********** Ready to take the plunge into homeownership? Don't miss our comprehensive First-Time Home Buyers Course available at the link below. This essential resource is designed to guide you through the maze of purchasing your first home with confidence and ease. Free for a limited time to listeners of the show! https://alex-s-school-7883.thinkific.com/courses/first-time-home-buyer-course For daily insights, make sure to find us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube: @flowmortgageco Don't just dream about your future home, make it a reality! Subscribe to "The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show" for more invaluable insights, and visit our website at getflowmortgage.ca to discover how we can help make your property aspirations come true.

canada social media canadian bank dropping rates money show mortgage advisor canada boc alex mcfadyen

Central Banks Feeling The Pressure To Cut Rates

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2024 22:29

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has recently undergone a significant shift in its monetary policy focus. Over the past two years, the central bank aggressively hiked interest rates to combat soaring inflation. These efforts have largely paid off, as inflation has been brought under control. However, this success has come at a cost—economic growth has been throttled, leading to rising unemployment and a surge in business insolvencies. Recognizing the need to pivot, the BoC is now shifting its priorities from solely fighting inflation to supporting economic recovery. The forecast for interest rates is now tilted towards cuts, with expectations of a pronounced decrease over the next two years. Mortgage rates are also anticipated to decline in tandem, offering some relief to homeowners renewing their mortgages during this period.As the BoC prepares to cut rates, it's essential to understand the implications for the mortgage market and the broader economy. The conversation has moved from concerns about inflation to worries about economic stability. Despite two years of rate hikes, the mortgage arrears rate has seen only a modest increase, from a low of 0.14% to 0.19% in May. Historically, arrears tend to rise after interest rate cuts begin, and this pattern is likely to repeat as the economy grapples with higher unemployment. However, even if arrears rates double, they would still be within long-term averages. The close correlation between unemployment and arrears suggests that as unemployment rises, so will arrears, though it may take a year or more before rate cuts start to reverse this trend.The broader economic landscape is also undergoing shifts. Canada's population growth remains strong, driven largely by non-permanent residents, who account for the majority of the increase. In the second quarter of 2024, the country saw a record 1.2 million year-over-year population growth, slightly higher than the first quarter. However, there's growing debate about whether this level of immigration is sustainable, with some arguing that the current rate is too high. Immigration has now become a more pressing issue in Canada than even climate change, with half of Canadians believing that the country is accepting too many newcomers. The government has set a mandate to reduce the number of non-permanent residents, but achieving this goal may prove challenging.In the mortgage market, originations are on the rise, surpassing levels seen from 2016 to 2019. Three and four-year fixed-rate mortgages remain the most popular choice among borrowers. Most mortgage renewals will take place in 2025 and 2026, at a time when the overnight rate is expected to be around 3%, a manageable level for those who took out mortgages when rates were near 0.25%. National housing inventory, while up from its 2021 low of 90,000, remains below long-term averages, with no signs of a dramatic increase in listings. Alberta and Saskatchewan are the only provinces where inventory is trending down, while others are seeing a gradual rise. As we move into the fall market, with rate cuts on the horizon and stable conditions, a balanced housing market is expected to continue for the remainder of 2024. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

How Economic Shifts in the US & Canada Are Impacting Home Prices

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2024 23:30

The economic landscape in both the US and Canada is showing significant shifts that have important implications for homeowners, the housing market, and the broader economy. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made a notable move by cutting interest rates by 0.25%, hinting at further cuts to come. This action aligns with market expectations, with a cumulative 0.5% cut so far and forward guidance pointing to an additional 0.50% reduction, potentially ending 2024 at a 4% rate. This decrease from 5% to 4% has offered some relief to variable mortgage rate holders. For instance, a $500,000 mortgage would see monthly payments drop from $2,684 to $2,387, a substantial annual saving of $3,600 or about 12%.In the United States, inflation has eased from 3.3% to 3%, primarily due to lower consumer spending, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in September by 85.7%. The Federal Reserve has maintained a 5.5% rate for 12 months, a full 100 basis points higher than Canada's current rate. As both countries trend towards lower inflation, the sentiment grows that inflation is under control, with a path to 2% inflation expected within a year, accompanied by gradual rate cuts potentially ending at 3% by late 2025.However, the housing market's health is nuanced. While mortgage originations are increasing, signaling a potential recovery, several key metrics still require careful consideration. In Canada, rental market dynamics are shifting significantly. The recent CPI print showed an 8.5% year-over-year increase in rent, though the month-over-month increase was the lowest in two years, influenced by a record number of rental completions. There are currently 140,000 rental units in the construction pipeline, expected to add 6% more rental stock nationally and 15% in British Columbia over the next two years. This surge in supply might alleviate high rental rates, but challenges persist as private investors shy away from rental investments due to new policies. For instance, Bosa recently halted two purpose-built rental towers due to financial unfeasibility driven by new amenity cost charges and revised development cost charges.Housing starts have been declining steadily for three years, with new starts down 9% nationally in June to 241,000, below expectations of 255,000. Building permit applications also dropped 12% in May, indicating potential future supply constraints. In British Columbia, permits fell 53% month-over-month, partly due to a rush to secure favorable CMHC financing before regulatory changes.Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. Mortgage originations rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, with annual growth at 3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming out in late 2023. Predicted future rate cuts could further support this recovery over the next 18 months. Fixed-rate mortgages, particularly 3 and 4-year terms, dominate new loans, accounting for 55% of all new mortgages.As we approach the end of the month, preliminary sales data shows a balanced market for the second consecutive month, with slight declines in median and average home prices. Inventory levels and sales figures are stabilizing, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market. However, the overall economic environment remains complex, requiring ongoing monitoring of key metrics and trends. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

90% Chance Of a Rate Cut Next Week

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2024 23:40

In June, inflation unexpectedly dropped from 2.9% to 2.7%, surpassing expectations of 2.8%. Despite this decrease, the shelter cost index remains a significant driver of inflation, with a current increase rate of 6.2%, compared to 4.8% last year. Mortgage interest costs surged by 22%, and rent has increased by 8.8%, marking the highest rise since March 1983. However, excluding shelter costs, consumer prices only rose by 1.3%. This better-than-expected inflation report led to market predictions of a 90% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting. With employment at 22-year low and business insolvencies rising, a 0.25% rate cut seems likely, potentially bringing the current rate of 4.5% down, which we hope is still high enough to exert downward pressure on inflation. The impact on the housing market remains uncertain; another rate cut might increase the number of sellers, although buyers seem to remain on the sidelines. Retail sales data also supports the likelihood of a rate cut. Retail sales fell by 0.8% month-over-month, and excluding volatile items, they dropped by 1.4%. In 2024, retail sales increased in only one month and have been flat since 2022, despite a 6% increase in the population. This stagnation suggests that Canadian consumers are financially stretched, likely due to high mortgage payments. Housing starts provide further context to the economic challenges. In April, Prime Minister Trudeau promised to build 3.87 million homes by 2031. However, housing starts fell by 9% month-over-month in June and are down 14% from the same month last year. To meet Trudeau's target, housing starts would need to double from last year's levels, but they are currently 114% below the required mark. The situation is particularly dire in British Columbia, where starts fell by 12% and are 38% below June 2023 levels. In Toronto, new condo sales, a leading indicator for housing starts, are at their lowest since 1997. This decline contradicts the government's promises, with little incentive for builders to increase housing supply due to rising taxes, fees, and restricted access to affordable credit. The government's efforts have only expanded the size of the government by 42% since 2015, without noticeable improvements in efficiency.The Prime Minister and parts of his cabinet have also been flirting with the idea of a primary home equity tax with a government-funded think tank, Generation Squeeze. This proposed tax aims to address housing inequity by adding a surtax on homes valued over $1 million, supposedly affecting only the top 12% of high-value homes. Critics argue this approach is politically motivated and overlooks the real issues driving housing prices, such as immigration, development costs, and availability of credit - plus in markets where the average house price exceeds $1mil are many. Market updates indicate that housing prices fell in June for the first time in 2024 and are expected to drop further in July. As of July 29th, average prices were down by $68,000, and median prices by $10,000. Sales volumes are slightly lower than last year, indicating a slow market. The rest of the summer is expected to see a gradual decline, with potential market stimulation in the fall if there is a third rate cut and an increase in inventory. Overall, the Canadian economy is facing significant challenges with inflation, housing, _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

canadian sales toronto market bank retail housing british columbia prime minister mortgage critics justin trudeau rate cut prec reia mortgage interest rates canada boc

Canada's Jobs Market In Steep Decline

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2024 25:08

In June, inflation in the USA declined by 0.1% to 3%, marking the lowest rate in 12 months and a significant drop from the 9.1% peak two years prior. Despite this improvement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation remains a concern and further positive data is necessary to justify rate cuts. The next Fed announcement is scheduled for July 31, with markets predicting potential rate cuts starting in September.In Canada, inflation was slightly higher than expected last month at 2.9%, compared to the forecasted 2.6%. This discrepancy is largely attributed to a recent change in the composition of the CPI basket by Statistics Canada. Mortgage interest continues to contribute significantly to the inflation rate, accounting for 1.3% of the total 2.9%. With the rate cut cycle ongoing and the weight adjustments in the CPI basket, the upcoming announcement on July 24 could yield surprising results. Markets are currently anticipating rate cuts in September.A new report from the Bank of Canada (BoC) indicates that the overnight rate has risen higher than expected due to misjudged transitory inflation and liquidity issues stemming from government borrowing. This has led to an increase in mortgage payments, which has reduced borrowers' overall consumption by 3% since 2022, with a forecasted increase to 5% by 2027. Mortgage payments have risen by an average of 9% since 2022 and are expected to double to 17% by 2027. This shift diverts funds from consumption to debt servicing. Personal accounts suggest these figures might be underestimations, with some experiencing over 60% increase in mortgage payments, heavily weighted towards interest.Canada's employment situation is deteriorating, with a loss of 1,000 jobs in June, falling short of the expected 25,000 gain. This has pushed the unemployment rate to 6.4%, a 1.6% increase from post-pandemic lows, and the highest in seven years excluding the pandemic spike. The construction industry is getting hammered, with a 3% decline over three months. 99% of new jobs created in the past quarter have been part-time, and the employment rate has dropped to 61%, the lowest in over 20 years. Job vacancies have decreased significantly from 1 million in 2022 to 575,000, driven by rising business delinquencies, now at 1.5%.Toronto's real estate market saw a 4.5% increase in home sales in June, but this still represents the lowest June sales in 24 years, with a 16% year-over-year decline and a 28% drop for condos. Despite expectations that rate cuts would rejuvenate the market, inventory levels have surged, up 67% year-over-year and 84% for condos, reaching a 14-year high. The market is flooded with new units, leading to falling condo prices. The monthly condo cash flow index has improved since late 2023 but remains negative, with average condos running a $1,000 monthly deficit.Vancouver's active inventory surpassed 15,000 listings for the first time in five years, with expectations of reaching a 10-year high soon. Detached homes are leading this increase in inventory, despite record-low single-family home starts over the past 35 years. The condo segment is expected to see a spike in listings in the coming months due to new regulations affecting investment properties. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update for June 2024

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2024 28:03

The Bank of Canada's recent rate cut has been a significant event, widely appreciated by businesses and mortgage holders. This cut was expected by many who hoped for relief amid economic stress. While rate cuts generally indicate a weakening economy, they are crucial for easing monetary policy to support businesses and individuals. The Bank of Canada (BoC) aims to achieve an overnight rate of 2.75% by the end of next year, which means a substantial 200 basis points reduction over the next 18 months. The central bank's next decision is scheduled for July 24, and it has committed to ongoing data analysis before making further moves.The short-term implications of the rate cut are primarily on market sentiment. Optimism about the economy could spur consumer spending, and pre-approved buyers, previously on the sidelines, may start entering the market. However, with inventory at a four-year high, price increases may be limited in the short term. Lower borrowing costs will make loans more affordable, potentially increasing purchasing power and market activity over the next 6-9 months.In the long term, lower rates can stimulate economic activity by making credit more accessible, encouraging business investments, and reducing unemployment. If the BoC's rate cuts continue, the economy will begin to see a revival, but careful management is necessary to prevent inflation and supply chain pressures.A notable factor influencing the BoC's decision was the record $3.72 billion in quarterly net write-offs by the Big 6 banks, indicating significant financial strain. The majority of these write-offs were in personal loans and credit cards, highlighting consumer financial stress.Detailed May 2024 real estate statistics reveal that total sales were 2,733, down 20% year-over-year and 4% month-over-month. New listings were down 11% month-over-month but a 13% increase year-over-year. Inventory reached 12,908, marking a 7% month-over-month increase and a 39% year-over-year increase! The sales-to-active ratio has slid to 21%, the first drop in six months, indicating a cooling market. The ratio was 17% for detached homes, 29% for townhomes, and 23% for apartments. Prices continued to rise, with the HPI at $1,212,000, up 0.5% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year. The median price was $998,000, near its all-time high, while the average price hit a new ATH at $1,348,000.The summer market is expected to be dynamic, with potential opportunities for Buyers amid high inventory levels and lowering rates. However, significant price movements are unlikely until inventory tightens and further rate cuts materialize. Buyers may find a short-term window to act without intense competition, but overall market activity is anticipated to rise as borrowing becomes more affordable. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

canada bank lower optimism buyers prices inventory real estate markets market updates ath real estate podcast hpi boc real estate market update real estate news prec reia vancouver real estate canada boc

Inflation Hits 3-Year Low. But Not Enough For Rate Cuts

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2024 25:18

Inflation has decreased to 2.7% this month, down from 2.9% the previous month. This marks the lowest inflation rate in over three years, specifically since March 2021. At that time, the overnight interest rate was 0.25%. Despite this improvement, shelter costs continue to drive inflation, with increases at 6.4%, up from 4.9% last year. Mortgage interest costs have surged by 24.5%, and rent has risen by 8.2% compared to April last year. When excluding shelter costs from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, inflation would be just 1.2%.This decline in inflation could open the door for a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming June 5th announcement by the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, with the current inflation rate still above the 2% target, sustained reductions to the target level are preferred before any decisive action. The market is pricing in a 55% chance of a rate cut in June, but certainty remains low. The BoC's approach is reactive, and it could be six months before inflation stabilizes at 2%.In April, the BoC slightly revised its neutral rate, which is now set at 2.25% to 3.25%, up from the previous 2-3% range. This revision, influenced by higher US neutral rates and domestic factors such as higher long-term labor input growth offset by lower productivity growth, suggests a relaxation of stringent economic requirements.The BoC's updated assessment considers the impact of government debt and population growth on the neutral rate. Increased government debt and more generous public pensions put upward pressure on the neutral rate, suggesting prolonged higher taxes, ongoing inflationary pressure and overall higher prices.The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) now requires tenants to withhold and remit 25% of their rent if their landlord is a non-resident. This is to ensure the CRA collects taxes owed by foreign property owners. Tenants must also file an NR4 tax form, and failure to comply can result in the tenant being held liable for unpaid taxes, penalties, and interest. This policy faces practical challenges due to the lack of a public beneficial ownership registry, making it difficult for tenants to verify if their landlord is a non-resident. Consequently, tenants could face eviction for not paying full rent if they withhold the 25%.RBC predicts significant interest rate cuts starting in 2024 and going through 2025, with a 25-basis point cut anticipated in June and a total of 200 basis points in cuts by the end of next year. They expect the Canadian dollar to weaken, impacting housing affordability and resale activity. Despite weak affordability, resale activity is expected to pick up mid-year as rates fall. Home prices, which were down 2.6% in 2023, are projected to decrease by another 1% in 2024 before rising by 3.1% in 2025.Active home listings have reached over 13,900, marking a five-year high since September 2019. While this increase in inventory might lead to better deals for buyers, it will take months to absorb this supply. A potential rate cut could temporarily stimulatebuyer activity, particularly in typically slow months like August when motivated sellers might offer better deals. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

canadian home bank hits inflation active mortgage cuts increased tenants rbc cra boc year low consumer price index cpi prec reia canada revenue agency cra canada boc

Real Estate Market Resilient As Economy Worsens

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2024 28:16

Despite growing concerns about Canada's economy, including a meager increase in GDP and dwindling consumer confidence, the Bank of Canada (BOC) has yet to implement a rate cut. The lack-luster GDP rise of 0.2% in February fell short of the projected 0.4%, with early data for March indicating stagnation. As a result, Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach only 0.6%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline and a 2% annual contraction in per capita GDP.Despite these troubling indicators, the real estate market in Canada is surprisingly resilient. The Real Estate Outlook Index is at its highest level since rate hikes began two years ago, with record-high prices recorded in provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec (particularly in Montreal), New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/Labrador. This buoyancy is fuelled in part by low per capita home sales in recent years, which are expected to rebound even amidst economic softening. Additionally, a significant portion of potential buyers are waiting for a rate cut before making a move, further propping up sentiment.However, ominous signs persist. Insolvencies in key sectors such as construction, finance/real estate, retail, and accommodation/food services are at their highest levels in a decade. Despite this, market odds of a rate cut in June have fallen to just 35%, down from 80% eight weeks earlier.Mortgage delinquency rates remain relatively low, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, signaling stability in the residential real estate sector. Yet, this stability could deter the BOC from implementing rate cuts, despite mounting economic challenges.In the U.S., while inflation has shown signs of easing, concerns over consumer spending habits persist. With previous government stimulus savings (over 2.1 trillion dollars) are now exhausted and retailers reporting reduced consumer spending, fears of rising insolvencies and delinquencies loom large.Historical analysis suggests that a rate cut may be overdue, with previous cycles seeing cuts around the 27-month mark. However, there are many policies and decisions that are still contributing to elevated levels of inflation. Trudeau's ambitious plan to increase housing construction faces big obstacles, as housing starts decline despite high demand and the promises that have been made to build 3.9 million homes by 2030.While the market may see opportunities for buyers amid increasing inventory, the average home price in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) has reached a new all-time high, despite sustained higher interest rates. This is the case in many different provinces and cities throughout Canada. Overall, while there are indications of economic challenges ahead, slowing GDP, including rising insolvencies and declining consumer spending, factors such as stable real estate markets and historical rate cycle comparisons make the timing of a rate cut more uncertain than they've ever been. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update For March 2024

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2024 28:28

In this episode, we unpack the latest developments in Vancouver's real estate market and the broader economic landscape. Home prices in Vancouver have experienced an unexpected surge, breaking a six-month downward trend. Despite this, the Bank of Canada (BOC) has maintained its interest rates at 5%, leading to alarming trends such as increased mortgage arrears and a shocking spike in corporate bankruptcies.The BOC's decision to hold rates at 5% was expected, with the central bank highlighting slow economic growth and easing wage pressures. While there's a possibility of rate cuts in the future, some critical data points suggest the need for more aggressive action. Markets are pricing in three cuts this year, but the BOC's historical tendencies may result in a delayed response.Insolvency data is revealing a concerning picture, with business insolvencies reaching levels not seen since 2006. Corporate bankruptcies are particularly alarming, hitting a monthly high of 570 in January, far surpassing the long-term average of 170. This downturn in the business sector is leading to a decline in private sector payrolls and a five-quarter negative trend in per capita GDP, signaling a potential recession...Mortgage arrears are on the rise, reaching 0.18%, a 28% increase from the 2022 low. Although still below pre-pandemic levels, the 500-mortgages in arrears increase is the largest since 2020, indicating potential challenges ahead. However, the impact on the Vancouver housing market remains relatively muted, with residents not rushing to sell their homes despite the higher rates.The local real estate market in February witnessed a 14% increase in total sales compared to the previous year, reaching 2,070 units—the highest since August 2023. However, this surge is still 23% below the 10-year average, suggesting a selective hyperactivity driven by low inventory. New listings increased by 31% year-over-year, bringing total inventory up by 6% and shockingly, the active inventory is sitting 0.3% above the 10-year average, indicating a potentially sustained low-inventory environment.The sales-to-active ratio experienced a significant 6% increase, reaching 23%! This marks a return to a sellers' market after five months. This trend is evident across property types, with detached, townhomes, and apartments all experiencing notable increases. Prices also rebounded after a six-month decline, showing a remarkable 1.9% increase in the HPI in February.Despite economic challenges and sounding like a broken record, the Vancouver housing market remains resilient. Home prices are inching closer to peak 2022 levels, defying the two-year interest rate hike cycle. With a median price of $960,000 and average price of $1,279,000, the market is showing signs of strength. However, warnings from market experts, suggest that broader economic issues might not be fully reflected in the BOC's decisions.As the market forges ahead, we explore the implications of tightened inventory and the potential impact on buyers. Investment houses provide a cautionary perspective, hinting at larger economic problems than acknowledged by the BOC. With corporate insolvencies rising and employment numbers under threat, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain and we urge you to consider a holistic view beyond central bank statements. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

home bank investment corporate vancouver markets prices mortgage gdp real estate markets market updates insolvency hpi boc real estate market update prec reia vancouver real estate canada boc

Week ahead: ECB rates, UK budget and non-farm payrolls

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2024 5:43

There is unlikely to be any move in rates from either the Bank of Canada (BoC) or the European Central Bank (ECB) but the interesting angle will be the commentary. Will both signal their intention to cut rates? Two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters recently suggest that the ECB will begin cutting rates in June. The BoC has its benchmark rate at 7.2%, one of the highest in developed economies and mortgage holders are crying out in pain so the BoC may also indicate its willingness to start to loosen monetary policy. The UK government's budget is delivered on Wednesday with all the usual suspects likely to move including housebuilders, pub companies and the pound. Then US jobs in the week include ADP private payrolls on Wednesday and on Friday the US Department of Labor publishes non-farm payrolls for February. Amongst the bigger corporates to wait on earnings include L&G Reach, Greggs Target and Broadcom.Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

uk bank labor farm rates reuters us department adp payroll ecb week ahead broadcom boc uk budget european central bank ecb canada boc

Increased taxes impacting housing affordability in Canada - RE/MAX Toronto - Canada's Podcast

Canada's Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2024 6:36

In this video interview, Chris Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada, discusses the real estate company's latest 2024 Tax Report and the impact of taxes and other rising costs on housing affordability in the country. FULL PRESS RELEASE TORONTO, Feb. 6, 2024 /CNW/ — While land transfer taxes and new property assessments in key markets appear to have little effect on the surface, eroding affordability levels are slowly shifting migration patterns and changing the landscape in major Canadian centres, according to a new report released today by RE/MAX Canada. RE/MAX Canada's 2024 Tax Report examined key markets in six Canadian provinces, including Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, and found governments at all levels are collecting billions from Canadian homebuyers through levies and development fees on new construction, as well as land transfer and property taxes on residential properties. Tax rate increases, in tandem with record-high housing values and mortgage rates, have sparked a post-pandemic exodus from the country's most expensive markets, contributing to a significant uptick in interprovincial migration numbers in Alberta and Atlantic Canada in 2023. While some homebuyers were content to move outside of core markets within their province, close to 60,000 Canadians found their answer to the current housing crisis in Alberta and, to a lesser extent, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. According to Statistics Canada's Quarterly Demographic Estimates, Provinces and Territories Interactive Map, interprovincial migration doubled over already-strong year-ago levels in the first three quarters of 2023 in Alberta, with the province welcoming 45,194 people, compared to 22,278 during the same period in 2022. Alberta gained the most interprovincial migrants in the third quarter of 2023, with the highest influx coming from Ontario (6,262), followed by BC (5,269), Saskatchewan (1,579) and Manitoba (1,316). Nova Scotia also saw more than 5,000 new residents in the first three quarters of 2023, following an influx of close to 10,000 interprovincial migrants during the same period in 2022. New Brunswick's net interprovincial total was almost 4,500 in the first three quarters of 2023, while Prince Edward Island posted a net interprovincial increase of just over 1,000. All other provinces noted negative net interprovincial numbers, with more people leaving than arriving. Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB). Local boards provided by RE/MAX brokers. *Benchmark Price for all properties in December **Non-residents pay five per cent deed transfer tax in Nova Scotia ***First-time Home Buyer exemption/rebate applied to Vancouver and Toronto/GTA “Given today's housing market realities, it comes as no surprise that buyers are willing to travel across the country to achieve home ownership,” says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “In addition to affordable housing values and extensive job opportunities, Alberta is well known for its position on taxation, with no provincial sales tax and zero land transfer tax on residential real estate. Cash-rich buyers from provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia are aware that the sale of their property in Toronto or Vancouver will stretch that much further in Alberta or Atlantic Canada's major centres. And for first-time buyers, it's an opportunity to get into the market at an affordable price point and gain equity, as opposed to paying down someone else's mortgage by renting.” According to the Fraser Institute's 24 Facts for 2024 Report, the average Canadian family pays 45.3 per cent of its income to taxes – more than the 35.6 per cent spent on necessities of life. Regressive tax policies are also to blame for the changing migration patterns. Land transfer taxes were introduced across Canada in the 1970s as a method of generating revenue for municipalities, regardless of income. The highest land transfer taxes are found in Toronto, where buyers pay a municipal land transfer tax as well as a provincial tax. On January 1, 2024, Toronto upped the ante, introducing a luxury tax on home sales over $3 million. While the existing municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) essentially remains the same under $3 million, homebuyers that cross the threshold will find a sliding scale of taxes that range from 3.5 per cent on sales over $3 million to 7.5 per cent on sales over $20 million. On an average-priced home in the city, buyers can expect to pay close to $40,000 in taxes. “When you think about what a $40,000 tax bill payable upon closing could do if it was applied to a down payment, it's clearly time to incentivize the first domino,” says Alexander. “The first order of business should be revisiting the first-time buyer rebate/exemption in Toronto and Vancouver, because at $400,000 and $500,000–$525,000 respectively, they're woefully inadequate given the average or benchmark price of properties in those cities.” A survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX in mid-2023 found that more than one in four Canadians (28 per cent) agreed the land transfer tax has impacted their decision to participate in the housing market. The home-buying decisions of young Canadians were particularly impacted, with 40 per cent of Gen Z and 35 per cent of Millennials agreeing that the land transfer tax has played a role in their pursuit of home ownership, compared to 26 per cent of Gen X and 21 per cent of Baby Boomers.* As a result, there is a growing wave of younger people who are choosing to leave major centres and provinces to attain home ownership. Not surprisingly, some of the fastest-growing municipalities are inside or close to urban areas, according to Statistics Canada 2021 Census. For example, East Gwillimbury in the Greater Toronto Area experienced the greatest increase in population between 2016 and 2021 with a 44.4-per-cent uptick; Langford, outside of Victoria, BC, and Southern Gulf Islands just outside Vancouver, were up 31.8 and 28.9 per cent respectively; Niverville, on the outskirts of Winnipeg was up 29 per cent; Carignan just outside Montreal was up 24.1 per cent; while Wolfville, Nova Scotia was up 20.5 per cent. New and proposed property tax reassessments are also creating confusion in markets across the country, including Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, with some properties assessed above recent sale prices. The Province of Ontario has yet again postponed its reassessment. With the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) still operating at levels assessed in 2016, new assessments in the province for the years 2023 and 2024 will likely be significantly higher when distributed. The burden is even higher on new home construction within Canada's most expensive markets. In Toronto, for example, taxes, levies and development fees on new condominiums – the first step to home ownership for many Canadians – is estimated to account for approximately 25 to 30 per cent of the overall purchase price. On a unit priced at $717,000, the average price for a condominium in Toronto at year-end, that accounts for roughly $180,000 to $215,000 paid by the purchaser. New low-rise housing is no exception. Based on a study by Altus Group, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) found that government fees, taxes and charges added $222,000 to the cost of an average, new single-family home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 2019 – three times higher than in major U.S. markets such as San Francisco, Miami, Boston, New York City, Chicago, and Houston. “The goal should be to make home ownership more accessible, not less,” says Alexander. “Taxation is contributing to the demise of the Canadian dream, with home ownership across the country falling from peak levels reported in 2011, and it will continue to decline unless there is some intervention. A greater supply of affordable housing in major centres will have a sizeable impact on keeping the dream alive. However, if we don't heed the call, we risk continued out-migration of our youth.” Rising tax levels and quality of life have become a growing concern in cities throughout North America as well. Driven by domestic out-migration, more than 600,000 people left New York State for Florida, Texas, and other low-tax states in 2020 and 2023, according to US Census Data. Internal Revenue Services (IRS) data show the state lost an estimated $45 billion in taxable income between 2020 and 2023. Florida, on the other hand, welcomed more than 700,000 people during the same period, as the state's favourable tax structure proved irresistible to buyers. “Clearly, public policy is contributing to a myriad of issues – with affordability front and centre – and there's no relief in sight,” says Alexander. “Shelter is a basic human need, yet accessibility is becoming increasingly problematic as government reliance on the housing sector as a means of funding creates a greater divide. Affordability and opportunity are key to healthy and sustainable real estate market activity and a vibrant economy. As such, the potential economic impact of ongoing out-migration on the future of individual provinces should raise alarm bells.” Market by Market Overview** Greater Vancouver The tax burden weighs most heavily on buyers in markets such as the Greater Vancouver Area where housing values are amongst the highest in the country. Yet first time, move up, and downsizing buyers remain determined to move forward, regardless of tax implications. In fact, home-buying activity in the Greater Vancouver Area is off to a strong start in 2024, as buyers who've sat on the sidelines throughout 2023 re-enter the market en masse. The imbalance between supply and demand has prompted a flurry of multiple offers on properties at affordable price points. While land transfer taxes are the cost of doing business in Vancouver and purchasers have come to begrudgingly accept that reality, property taxes are amongst the lowest in the country. High interest rates were the greatest impediment to home-buying activity in Vancouver throughout 2023, with the threat of ever-rising mortgage rates creating havoc in the market. With the expectation of an end to quantitative tightening, homebuyers are hoping to get into the market before values climb once again. Evidence of the trending has been apparent over the past two months, as fixed rates have now come down about one half of a per cent. Inflation appears to be heading in the right direction, although slower than originally anticipated. The first-time buyer's rebate has proven inadequate in a market that had an average benchmark price of $1,168,700. Few first-time buyers qualify at the current $525,000 threshold. Properties up to $499,999 are eligible for a full tax exemption while properties priced from $500,000 to $524,999 are eligible for partial repayment. There are currently 43 properties listed for sale under $525,000 in the City of Vancouver. The full land transfer tax is obligatory on property priced at more than $525,000. Surprisingly, the first-time buyer's exemption on new construction is considerably higher, with exemption available on homes priced up to $750,000. While buyers are faced with the additional cost of a government sales tax (GST) on their new home, there's really no reason the threshold of $750,000 shouldn't be applied equitably. Unfortunately, the higher cost of living in the province is driving movement out of the province, with many young families and retirees heading for neighbouring Alberta where BC dollars go a lot further. Data compiled for the first nine months of 2023 by the Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates: Provinces and Territories Interactive Map showed a decline in net interprovincial migration numbers, with British Columbia registering close to 6,000 people leaving BC. Years ago, the trend had been to move to the Okanagan to take advantage of lower prices, but in recent years, strong migration levels have accelerated housing values in cities such as Kelowna, Kamloops and Penticton. Net international migration numbers for the same period show more than 150,000 immigrants, net emigration and net non-permanent residents entering the province in the first three-quarters of 2023. Methodology for Residential Property Transfer Tax First $200,000 – taxed at 1 per cent $200,000 – $2,000,000 – taxed at 2 per cent $2 million to $3 million – taxed at 3 per cent Over $3 million – taxed at 5 per cent Calgary Home-buying activity continues at a frenzied pace in the Calgary area as affordable housing values and lower tax rates incentivize an increasing number of out-of-province buyers to move to Alberta. In the first three quarters of 2023, the province welcomed just over 45,000 interprovincial residents, according to the Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates: Provinces and Territories Interactive Dashboard. During the same period, net international migration rose by almost 100,000 people, including new immigrants, net emigration, and net non-permanent residents. Buyers from Ontario and BC remain most active in the province, with the vast majority settling in the City of Calgary where the average price at year end 2023 hovered at $539,313, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. Home ownership in the city can be attained for as low as $350,000, with the condominium apartment category seeing the highest year-over-year increase in sales in 2023. Younger buyers as well as retirees and investors are behind the push for housing. Tight market conditions persist throughout the city, however, with local buyers vying for prime properties with cash-rich purchasers from Ontario and British Columbia. As a result, many seasoned local buyers have moved to the sidelines in the latter half of 2023, choosing not to participate in the frothy market. Entry-level buyers, representing approximately 20 to 30 per cent of the market, are driving activity between $350,000 to $650,000. Those first-time buyers that have scrimped and saved for a down payment are largely targeting two-bedroom, one bath condominium apartment properties priced between $350,000 to $400,000. First-time buyers are fortunate enough to have some help from the bank of mom and dad are typically seeking single detached starter homes in the $500,000 to $650,000 price range. Land transfer taxes are non-existent in Alberta, although most buyers pay a registration fee around $300. There are no provincial sales taxes. The combination of lower taxes, affordable housing, and greater job opportunities are expected to continue to draw purchasers from out-of-province, many of whom have been priced out by rapidly rising housing values and taxes in their own provinces. Zero Residential Property Transfer Tax – All properties, all price points Winnipeg A significant uptick in housing sales and values in the last six weeks of 2023 has set the stage for home-buying activity in Winnipeg in 2024. Listings that had lingered on the market were quickly snapped up, some in multiple-offer situations, between mid-November and mid-December. The same momentum has been noted in the first two weeks of January as the potential for an end to the Bank of Canada's stance on quantitative tightening grows increasingly likely after four rate pauses in a row. There has been a considerable increase in the number of renters getting into the market, in large part due to rental rates that look more like mortgage payments at present. First time buyers, many of whom are new to the country, would rather own their homes than paying off someone else's mortgage. As such, the land transfer and property taxes are just part of the process, despite property rate taxes that are amongst the highest in the country. The vast majority of first-time purchasers are coming to the table with at least two percent of the property's value set aside for land transfer taxes and closing costs. For move up buyers, they've generally factored the land transfer tax into the equation. However, at higher price points, from $750,000 to $1 million, buyers may put their decision to move on pause, opting to renovate instead. Seniors, particularly those who have lost partners and live alone, may choose to age in place rather than undertaking the additional costs, not to mention the stress of a move. The greatest activity remains at lower price points, where inventory levels are particularly low. Winnipeg is one of the most affordable housing markets in the country with an average price in 2023 hovering at just over $400,000 (approximately $5,700 in land transfer tax). Most first-time buyers are looking at properties priced between $350,000 and $450,000. Trade-up buyers are typically active between $500,000 and $750,000. Like other parts of the country, overall housing stock in the city remains low. Yet, net international migration, comprised of immigrants, net emigration, and net non-permanent residents, added an estimated 36,000 to Manitoba's population in the first three quarters of 2023, according to Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates: Provinces and Territories Interactive Dashboard. Population growth is expected to contribute to housing market activity in Winnipeg in the year ahead, bolstered by an anticipated fall in interest rates in the second or third quarters. Methodology for Residential Land Transfer Tax 0 – $30,000 – No Tax $30,001 to $90,000 – 0.5 per cent $90,001 to $150,000 – 1 per cent $150,001 to $200,000 – 1.5 per cent $200,000 and above – 2 per cent Greater Toronto Area After a flurry of home-buying activity at luxury price points in the final quarter of 2023 in Toronto Proper due to upcoming changes to the city's 2024 land transfer taxes, the housing market has slowed in the Greater Toronto Area. Sales are currently trending on par or slightly ahead of year-ago levels, with economic concerns and high interest rates leaving many buyers sitting on the sidelines. While the Bank of Canada (BOC) held firm on rates in January for the fourth consecutive time since its July 2023 rate hike, inflation remains high, placing the BOC in a challenging position. That said, there are signs that quantitative tightening is drawing to a close and some economists predict rates will start coming down by mid-year. With the promise of lower rates on the horizon, the spring market is expected to be active, with trade-up buyers leading the charge, cashing in on equity gains realized over the past decade. Unlike years prior, this spring market will be characterized by a greater selection of homes available for sale and less competition in the marketplace. Sales in the spring will ideally position seasoned buyers with a three-month closing to potentially dovetail with interest rate cuts. First-time buyers, however, will continue to struggle to achieve home ownership, given a continuation of tight inventory levels at entry-level price points from $500,000 to $1,000,000. That, combined with the government stress test that adds an additional two percentage points to existing rates is hurting those who've been able to accumulate a down payment and transfer taxes but are unable to qualify at today's rates plus two per cent. The unfortunate fact is that many potential homebuyers are already paying rates similar to a mortgage on their rental units while inflation continues to eat away at their savings. The 416 area-code remains popular with younger buyers who want to be close to shops, restaurants and transportation. The additional municipal land transfer tax fails to deter this segment of the market. However, for those starting a family, the 905 area-code generally offers greater affordability and one less transfer tax. Hybrid workplaces have also made moving north, east, and west of the city an easier transition, requiring only one or two days a week travelling on the GTA's busy highways. For existing homeowners located in the city core, the expense of a move with its associated municipal and provincial land transfer taxes and closing costs have prompted some to consider renovation. By upgrading their home, making cosmetic changes to kitchen, bathrooms and flooring, homeowners are adding value to their properties down the road. While renovation can have its own challenges, it is an option that many are taking given the high cost of moving. Ongoing conversations regarding a 10 to 16 per cent increase in property taxes are another issue that stems from a city that is burdened by rising costs and a stagnating downtown core. Fundamentally regressive taxing punishes the city's most vulnerable homeowners – its seniors – many who are on fixed incomes. Taxes are based on the value of the property but have nothing to do with income. While the only certainties in life are death and taxes, there needs to be better solution to the current structure. Taxation is not actually deterring most buyers from getting into the market, but it is somewhat hampering, especially at entry-level price points. The current structure allows for a full rebate of municipal and provincial land transfer taxes of up to $400,000 for first-time buyers. There are currently close to 250 “properties” listed for sale under the $400,000 price point, the vast majority of which are parking spaces, lockers and vacant land. Although buyers are still active in the Toronto market, there are those that are moving to areas outside of the GTA where housing values are lower. And, in the first three quarter of 2023, there were more people leaving the province than arriving, with net interprovincial migration numbers down by just over 32,500, according to Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates: Provinces and Territories Interactive Dashboard. While interprovincial migration has been offset by close to half a million immigrants, net emigration, and net non-permanent residents, it's clear the cost of living in Ontario – with its high housing values and tax base – is resulting in migration to other areas of the country. Methodology for Municipal Land Transfer Tax on Residential Properties Up to $55,000: 0.5 per cent Up to $250,000: 1 per cent Up to $400,000: 1.5 per cent Up to $2 million: 2 per cent $2 million Up to $2.999 million: 2.5 per cent $3 million to $3.999 million: 3.5 per cent $4 million to $4.999 million: 4.5 per cent $5 million to $9.999 million: 5.5 per cent $10 million to $19.999 million: 6.5 per cent $20 million plus: 7.5 per cent Methodology for Provincial Land Transfer Tax on Residential Properties Up to $55,000: 0.5 per cent Up to $250,000: 1 per cent Up to $400,000: 1.5 per cent Up to $2 million: 2 per cent More than $2 million: 2.5 per cent Montreal While higher interest rates and the threat of a possible recession seriously hampered home-buying activity in Montreal over the past year, housing taxes –in the form of a welcome tax and property tax—proved to be a negligible part of the equation in 2023. The sentiment is largely due to Montreal's affordable housing market, where average price at year-end 2023 ($574,845) remains well below other large Canadian markets such as Toronto and Vancouver. Buyers can expect to pay a welcome tax of close to $8,000, payable upon closing, based on the 2023 year-end average. First-time buyers, defined as those who have never owned a home, are not eligible for a rebate but can receive the Quebec Home Buyers Tax Credit on their tax return. Set by the city, property tax rates currently run at approximately 0.63000 per cent in Montreal, adding another $3,183 to the annual cost of home ownership, based the average price. A recent update to property assessments have made headlines in Quebec as the province moves to bring assessments in line with today's housing values. The new assessments have, however, caused confusion in the market, particularly given that some homes have been assessed above recent sale prices. After a dismal 2023, renewed momentum is expected to characterize home-buying activity in Montreal in 2024. Properties appear to be moving at a faster pace than year-ago levels while showings and open houses are growing busier. First-time buyers are cautiously optimistic, entering the market at price points ranging between $450,000 and $750,000. While condominiums are the first step to home ownership at lower price points in the city, first-time buyers willing to move farther afield may find small, detached homes priced around $750,000. The trade-up market has been impacted by an abundance of offers conditional on the sale of the buyers' home within 30 days in recent months. Many of these offers are falling through as buyers fail to sell their homes and new buyers lie waiting in the wings. As a result, existing homeowners are choosing to sit tight, hesitant to sell first for fear that they won't find another suitable home. Yet, they are also hesitant to buy first and go through the motions, only for the deal to die after 30-days. As a result, some buyers will choose to renovate their property, instead of embarking on a move. The promise of lower interest rates down the road is bringing some comfort to buyers and sellers. Once rates start to decline, which could potentially happen as early as April, home buying activity is expected to gain traction. The market at present, however, remains tenuous, with any unexpected development having the potential to disrupt the whole market. Methodology for residential land transfer tax in Montreal 0.5 per cent on the first $58,000 1.0 percent between $58,900 and $294,600 1.5 per cent between $294,600 to $552,300 2.0 per cent between $552,300 to $1,104,700 2.5 per cent between $1,104,700 to $2,136,500 3.5 per cent between $2,136,500 to $3,113,000 4.0 per cent on homes priced over $4,113,000 Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) With housing market uncertainty seeping into January 2024, homebuyers in Halifax are banking of the prospect of lower interest rates down the road to revitalize home-buying activity. Demand remains relatively healthy in hot pocket areas, where well-priced properties are selling in short order, but in areas where greater selection exists, turnover is slow. Given the current high interest rate environment, many buyers are choosing to stay in place until the first interest rate cut is announced. Once that occurs, it's expected that buyers will enter the market in full force, hoping to get in before prices increase. Immigration and in-migration have factored into the housing equation, with both ramping up significantly since 2020. According to Statistics Canada, Nova Scotia's population rose five per cent between 2016 to 2021, settling in at just under 970,000, with the provincial government committed to doubling the population to two million by 2060. In 2023, more than 5,300 interprovincial migrants and over 20,000 immigrants moved to Nova Scotia in the first three quarters of the year – the vast majority settling in Halifax – according to Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates, Provinces and Territories Interactive Dashboard. The increase came as a surprise, driving upward momentum in housing values, as buyers from other provinces and countries arrive flush with cash, outspending the average Halifax buyer in large part due to stronger buying power. Inventory levels have improved significantly over one year ago, but less than 1,000 homes are currently listed for sale. First-time buyers in the Halifax housing market are finding it particularly stressful as of late to compete for homes in the sweet spot – priced from $350,000 to $500,000. Some are moving between one and two hours outside of Halifax to take advantage lower house prices. With remote work increasingly accepted, the necessity to be located in Halifax has waned. Halifax urbanization and development in recent years is also a factor, with traffic, construction, and increased congestion prompting buyers to look at areas outside the Halifax Regional Municipality. Taxation has played a greater role in the market this year, as new reassessments mailed out in January reflected strong growth in housing values over the Covid years. Residential assessments are up about 20 per cent over last year, one of the largest increases in the history of the province. Numbers vary by community or municipality, with Halifax up 21.1 per cent. In addition, the new reassessments will not be capped after the sale of a home, which could see property taxes increase further for the next buyer. Deed transfer tax at 1.5 per cent on the purchase of a home in Halifax is an on-going hardship for first—time buyers, although there has been a first-time buyer plan in place that allows first-time buyers to repay the debt over a longer period. This is woefully inadequate at a time when it's important to incentivize the first domino. However, unlike other major areas of the country, housing values are still relatively affordable here. First-time buyers are laser focused on home ownership as rental rates rise. Many spend years saving 10 to 20 per cent down payments, only to be told they owe another 1.5 per cent upon closing, in addition to all other closing costs. The combination of reassessment and the deed transfer tax have also prompted some buyers to stay in place, especially at higher price points. Many are choosing to renovate rather than move. For non-residents, Nova Scotia charges a five per cent Provincial Deed Transfer Tax. Prices were up over 2022 at year-end 2023, sitting at $552,700 (up from $536,700 one year prior). Supply issues, like other parts of the country, exist and while development fees and approvals are slow and far between, there are more condominiums and freehold properties being added the city's housing stock. However, its estimated that the Halifax market is still 30,000 to 35,000 units short of what the city needs, given the governments vision for growth. Under the present conditions, there's no question that prices will continue to rise in the year ahead, with sales rising in tandem with falling interest rates. Methodology for Deed Transfer Tax in Nova Scotia Deed Transfer Tax in the Halifax Regional Municipality for residents is 1.5 per cent on purchase price. Deed Transfer Tax in Nova Scotia for out of province/country buyers is 5 per cent on purchase price. Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada's Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list About Us Canada's Podcast is the number one podcast in Canada for entrepreneurs and business owners. Established in 2016, the podcast network has interviewed over 600 Canadian entrepreneurs from coast-to-coast. With hosts in each province, entrepreneurs have a local and national format to tell their stories, talk about their journey and provide inspiration for anyone starting their entrepreneurial journey and well- established founders. The commitment to a grass roots approach has built a loyal audience on all our social channels and YouTube – 500,000+ lifetime YouTube views, 200,000 + audio downloads, 35,000 + average monthly social impressions, 10,000 + engaged social followers and 35,000 newsletter subscribers. Canada's Podcast is proud to provide a local, national and international presence for Canadian entrepreneurs to build their brand and tell their story. #business #CanadasNumberOnePodcastforEntrepreneurs #entrepreneurs #entrepreneurship #Homes #Housing #RealEstate #smallbusiness #Taxes

covid-19 texas canada world president new york city chicago land san francisco canadian miami home data sales toronto market local north america numbers bank trade millennials rising gen z vancouver ontario inflation montreal driven taxes immigration bc buyers british columbia prices hybrid supply tax calgary younger increased quebec shelter population ongoing established tight seniors entry gta impacting gen x deeds census properties winnipeg baby boomers new york state inventory nova scotia saskatchewan manitoba managing editors residential halifax taxation methodology new brunswick province affordability listings re max gst kelowna prince edward island langford leger kamloops housing affordability provinces atlantic canada greater toronto area okanagan boc statistics canada regressive penticton no tax building industry fraser institute carignan chris alexander pr news wolfville altus group niverville halifax regional municipality canada boc

IG's week ahead: Q4 earnings; BoJ, ECB, BoC rate decisions

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2024 9:05

Three central bank decisions are on the agenda in the coming week so FX traders could be in for some interesting opportunities. First the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave rates ultra-loose, however start looking for tentative signs that the hawks are in the wings. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the ECB are also on the agenda, and while rate cuts have been mentioned, it's still expected to be sometime away, possibly Q3 in the case of the ECB. Outside of this the first PMI data for the year is being published in Japan, across the eurozone, the UK and the US so economists will have a better idea as to how various economies, outside of Japan, are coping with high rates. Then its earnings. All-sessions stocks to watch for in the US include NFLX, INTC, VISA, PG, JNJ, GE, IBM, AAL, AXP, and UAL alongside double the number not all-sessions traded. In Europe watch BMW, EZJ, AO, JDW, ASML, SAP, HFD, SMWH, TLW, and FRES to name just a few. Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

europe uk japan bank decisions ibm visa pg bmw fx ge ao sap earnings pmi ecb week ahead asml aal nflx ual jnj intc fres axp hfd canada boc

When are Interest Rates Going Down? Our Predictions-E12

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2023 28:16

In this episode, Alex McFadyen express relief that the Bank of Canada (BOC) maintained interest rates, alleviating suspense for listeners. Topics of discussions included effects of recent interest rate holds, market predictions, potential market impacts and current observations including rising rental rates, housing costs, and considerations around mortgage renewals. The hosts discuss the issue of decreased bond yields, the possibility of a market collapse, and the continued increases of fixed rates. They share their predictions on how rates might affect the real estate market in early 2024 and advise against locking into a five-year fixed mortgage rate. Lastly, they engage about the increasing competitiveness of mortgage rates in the market, making numerous references to rate forecasts and how these can impact purchasing power. Ready to take the plunge into homeownership? Don't miss our comprehensive First-Time Home Buyers Course available at the link below. This essential resource is designed to guide you through the maze of purchasing your first home with confidence and ease. Free for a limited time to listeners of the show! https://alex-s-school-7883.thinkific.com/courses/first-time-home-buyer-course For daily insights, make sure to find us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube: @flowmortgageco Don't just dream about your future home, make it a reality! Subscribe to "The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show" for more invaluable insights, and visit our website at getflowmortgage.ca to discover how we can help make your property aspirations come true.

predictions bank interest rates going down money show canada boc alex mcfadyen

IG's Week ahead 4/12/23: US jobs, RBA & BoC rate decisions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2023 5:27

The US jobs report is likely to be of interest for FX traders. There's the private ADP payrolls on Wednesday and the government report from the Labor Dept on Friday, releasing the non-farm payrolls number. While that will be of interest for the USD, the Australian dollar could move around the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision on Tuesday and then the Canadian dollar on Wednesday on the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision. Corporate releases include Frasers Group, On the Beach and Berkeley Homes Group. Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

canadian australian bank decisions corporate beach fx usd adp week ahead reserve bank us jobs labor dept frasers group canada boc

AI side hustle

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2023 8:35

If the Bank of Canada (BoC) is looking for a new mantra during these trying times, might we suggest, “What goes up must come down… to the 2% inflation target.” As the 2023 UN General Assembly enters its final day, member nations are trying to find a way to get a passing grade on the world's hardest group project. Looking to put some extra muscle into your side hustle? Look no further than our robot pals. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO

canada bank side hustles temperature sidekick un general assembly canada boc

Debts & Defaults Rising - What's In Store This Fall

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2023 23:00

This week we took a look at how the month of August was rounding out as well as providing our predictions for the Fall Market and the highly anticipated interest rate announcement next week. There have been 2,300 sales with a 20% year-on-year increase. However, these numbers are still below long-term averages. The inventory has remained consistently below 10,000 properties for the ninth consecutive month. The sales-to-active-listings ratio is approximately 24%, indicating that it still remains a seller's market throughout 2023, except for January. While average prices have increased by $10,000, the median prices have plummeted, experiencing an 8% decrease or a drop of $78,000 to $900,000, erasing all gains made in 2023. Various sources suggest that the BoC is expected to hold steady at 5.00%, with a minority anticipating one more rate increase. These predictions are based on assessments from Reuters, RBC, Oxford Economics, and interest rate future markets. With that said, there's still about a 30% chance of a 0.25% interest rate change in September and a 70% chance by the end of the year. The decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise rates could cool the market further, dampen consumer confidence, and restrict credit flow even more putting the risk of recession very much at the forefront.We also look at the first and second-quarter GDP results which are likely to show a sharper slowdown in economic growth, with an expected growth rate of 1.1%, down from 3.1% in the first quarter and below the BoC's estimate of 1.5%. Historically, there's typically an uptick in activity throughout September and possibly October which could help stabilize prices, however, the housing market is likely to continue to slow down as the overall economy inches down and unemployment rises. A moderate recession could change the narrative around interest rates and inflation but are likely to be months if not at least a year away from recovery. Tune into this weeks podcast and catch our other predictions about the fall market - What will rents do? Are prices still going to rise? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

canadian bank rising real estate gdp historically reuters real estate markets debts rbc defaults boc real estate market update prec reia oxford economics fall market vancouver real estate canada boc

IG's Week ahead podcast - starting 4 September: BoC and RBA rate decisions

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2023 3:49

With few companies on the corporate calendar most will be waiting on two interest rate decisions in the coming week. Watching the Australian dollar around the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate announcement on Tuesday and then it's the Canadian dollar in view around the rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Economists are telling us that these two decisions will go some way to help understand whether central banks have done enough on the interest rate front. Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

starting canadian australian bank watching decisions economists week ahead reserve bank canada boc

Canadians Feeling The Pain From Bank Of Canada Rate Hikes

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2023 29:46

The Bank of Canada (BOC) announced a 0.25% interest rate hike, marking the 10th increase since March 2022 and bringing the overnight rate to 5%, the highest in 22 years! The move comes as the Canadian economy, which has been stronger than expected, is expected to slow down due to the impact of higher interest rates. Although recent inflation rates have eased to 3.4% in Canada and 3% in the United States, the core inflation rate remains at 3-4% and has been more persistent than anticipated. The BOC now forecasts a return to its 2% inflation target in mid-2025, instead of the previously projected 2024.The increase in interest rates has had a significant impact on the bond and mortgage markets. The 5-year bond rate has surged to 4%, the highest since 2007, leading to fixed mortgage rates around 5.2% and variable rates around 5.9%. These rates are the highest in 15 years and have further challenged affordability, with monthly mortgage payments increasing significantly.The sentiment in the housing market has also shifted, as sentiment levels have dropped, resulting in reduced spending and housing demand. The labor market has shown signs of weakening, with the unemployment rate increasing over the past three months, which is the largest increase since 2019.Population growth in Canada has reached a record high of 1.2 million in the last 12 months, with non-permanent residents accounting for 60% of the increase. This has put extreme pressure on the rental market, with high rental rates and landlords resorting to renting out individual beds to meet the demand.In the Toronto market, sales have declined by 7% and inventory has increased by 19%. However, sales are still up 15% year-over-year, with a 20% increase in condo volume. Prices have risen by 2.5% in the last month and 9% in the past four months. The investment condo market has become less attractive for investors, with negative cash flow and decreasing rental returns.Looking at Calgary, the housing market continues to strengthen, with home sales rising 5% month-over-month and setting a record for the month. Sales in Calgary were up approximately 10% year-over-year, particularly in the condo segment, which experienced a 50% surge. Overall inventory is at a 10-year low, leading to increased prices.These developments indicate that the already financially strained marketplace is facing further pressure due to the recent interest rate hike, with talks of additional increases and higher rates for the foreseeable future. The housing and business sectors are likely to experience significant shifts if interest rates remain high for an extended period. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Bank for sale

Irish Tech News Audio Articles

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2023 8:44

Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada (BoC) did what everyone expected and raised Canada's overnight interest rate by 0.25% up to 5%—the highest since 2001. On this season of The Canadian Bank Bachelorette, 177-year-old Laurentian is looking for that perfect deep-pocketed suitor to give it the final rose. Canada has reportedly launched one of the first-ever probes into Nike's alleged use of forced labour abroad. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO

canada canadian bank sale launches hike probe throws watchdog laurentian tiff macklem canada boc

From Cash to Crypto: The Loonie's Digital Makeover Takes Flight

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2023 10:04

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as central banks across the world explore the potential of digital currencies. In this context, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has recently announced its plans to introduce a digital currency, commonly referred to as a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This groundbreaking development has captured the attention of both traditional financial institutions and the thriving cryptocurrency market. Get ready to witness a revolutionary stride as we delve into the Bank of Canada's digital currency initiative and its potential to reshape the world of payments. The Bank of Canada's Digital Currency Initiative The Bank of Canada has been actively researching and experimenting with the concept of a central bank digital currency. In a recent statement, the bank highlighted the need to adapt to the evolving digital economy and address the rise of private cryptocurrencies. The Bank of Canada aims to create a digital currency that will complement cash and provide a safe, stable, and reliable form of payment for all Canadians. What Is a Digital Canadian Dollar? A Digital Canadian Dollar refers to a digital form of the official currency of Canada, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), issued and regulated by the Bank of Canada (BoC). It is a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that aims to provide a secure, efficient, and inclusive means of digital payment for Canadians. Unlike traditional physical cash, which is in the form of banknotes and coins, a Digital Canadian Dollar exists solely in electronic or digital form. It is designed to be held and transacted using digital wallets, mobile devices, or other electronic means. Key Characteristics of a Digital Canadian Dollar Central Bank Issued The Digital Canadian Dollar is issued and regulated by the Bank of Canada, making it a government-backed digital currency. Legal Tender It holds the same legal status as physical Canadian currency, meaning it can be used to settle debts, payments, and transactions within the country. Digital Infrastructure The digital currency operates on a blockchain or distributed ledger technology (DLT) platform, which ensures secure and transparent transactions. Accessibility and Inclusion A Digital Canadian Dollar aims to provide a safe and inclusive means of payment for all Canadians, regardless of their background or access to traditional banking services. Stability The value of the Digital Canadian Dollar is expected to be stable, as it is likely to be backed by the Canadian government and tied to the value of the physical Canadian Dollar. Benefits of a Digital Canadian Dollar Efficiency Digital currency transactions can be processed more quickly and at a lower cost than traditional payment methods, such as cash or electronic transfers. Financial Inclusion A Digital Canadian Dollar can help bridge the gap for individuals who are unbanked or underbanked, as it can be accessed using simple mobile devices, expanding access to financial services. Security and Fraud Prevention Using digital currency can enhance security measures, reducing the risk of counterfeit currency and improving transaction traceability. Monetary Policy Implementation A Digital Canadian Dollar can provide central banks with more direct control over monetary policy, allowing for real-time monitoring of economic activity and more efficient implementation of policies. Innovation and Technological Advancement The introduction of a digital currency can foster innovation within the financial sector, encouraging the development of new technologies and payment solutions. It is important to note that the specific features, infrastructure, and timeline for the launch of a Digital Canadian Dollar are subject to the decisions and policies of the Bank of Canada, and further details regarding its implementation are yet to be announced. How Would it Differ from Cryptocurrencies A Digital Canadian Dollar, as a central bank digital currency (CBDC), diff...

canada canadian digital benefits innovation bank security crypto flight accessibility makeover central bank digital currency differ dlt loonie key characteristics canadian dollar how would canada boc

Canada Growing 7X Faster Than The USA

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2023 25:12

In recent months, inflation in Canada has shown a downward trend, with the rate dropping from 4.4% to 3.4%, the lowest it has been since June 2021! The decrease can be attributed primarily to a significant drop in gas prices, which have declined by an average of 18%. However, despite this overall decline, several items in the consumer price index (CPI) basket have registered higher prices. Groceries have seen a significant increase of 9%, while rent has risen by 5.7%. The most notable contributor to the year-over-year CPI increase is the surge in mortgage interest costs, which have skyrocketed by 30%. When these self-inflicted mortgage interest costs are excluded, the CPI stands at 2.5% in May, down from 3.7% in April. This is important because if the Bank of Canada (BOC) lowers rates and removes the mortgage interest cost element, it could bring inflation closer to their target. It is anticipated that the June inflation print may be below 3% according to the BOC's forecast from a few months ago.The timing of interest rate drops depends on the BOC's main mandate, which is to control inflation. To lower interest rates, the BOC requires prolonged sub 3% inflation, along with solid GDP growth, a robust labor market, and a rebounding housing market. However, financial markets currently expect the BOC to raise its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5% at its next meeting on July 12th.Canada has experienced a significant population growth, with an increase of 1.2 million people in the past year as of Q2. This growth is approximately 3X the 10-year average and raises concerns about the sustainability and impact of such rapid population growth. In particular, the growth in non-permanent residents (NPR) has reached 725,000 in the four-quarter rolling average, surpassing the previous record of under 200,000! It is worth noting that the majority of non-permanent residents are renters, which exacerbates the ongoing rental crisis in the country. Furthermore, a comparison between Canada and the United States shows that Canada's population grew at a rate of 3.5% last year, while the USA's population grew at a rate of 0.5%.The City of Vancouver is facing its own financial difficulties that will almost certainly result in significant property tax increases for homeowners. The projected budget shortfall is driven by high inflation, upcoming collective bargaining with employees, and various council initiatives, including plans to hire 100 additional police officers. As a result, homeowners in Vancouver may experience property tax increases of close to 10% annually for the next five years. These increases can have a substantial impact on homeowners' finances and raise concerns about the affordability of living in the city.We also dive into some of the stats for the month of June and Buyers should be somewhat happy to hear that supply has increased to just over 10,000 active units. With that said, we also take a glimpse into the office space sector in Vancouver which has a vacancy rate of near 9% with major REIT's looking to offload entire buildings. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Interest Rate Hike Will Slow Housing Over Summer

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2023 23:44

The Canadian economy has experienced a significant shift in monetary policy again this week as the Bank of Canada (BOC) raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 4.75% on June 7th. This move marks the largest cumulative interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s, and there are indications that more rate hikes may be on the horizon. The current interest rates are now the highest they have been in 22 years, dating back to 2001. This week we are exploring the implications of these interest rate hikes, the reasons behind them, and their potential impact on various sectors of the economy.The recent interest rate hike by the BOC was driven by the need to combat high inflation. The first quarter GDP numbers came in higher than expected at 3.1%, surpassing analysts' expectations of 2.5%. The economy is still growing at a faster pace than the BOC would like to see, with consumer spending increasing by 5.7% during the 1st quarter. The surprise interest rate hike aims to curb inflationary pressures and bring the economy back to a more sustainable growth trajectory.But there are Implications for Variable Rate Holders, Renters, and Borrowers. The impact of rising interest rates is felt most acutely by variable rate holders, as their monthly payments increase. Renters also face challenges as higher interest rates can lead to increased rental costs. Businesses with existing debt or those seeking to borrow will experience higher borrowing costs, potentially affecting their investment decisions and expansion plans. Individuals looking to make purchases using credit or secure a mortgage will also face higher borrowing costs.Residential investment has experienced a significant decline as well, with a 15% year-on-year drop and a 20% decrease relative to Q1 2022. This contraction represents the most severe decline since the 1990s. Furthermore, Canada has never witnessed a 10% annual decline in real residential investment without it being associated with a recession. Additional data from CMHC and Equifax highlights that average mortgage payments are outpacing disposable income growth by the widest margin on record. Average home equity line of credit (HELOC) payments have also increased by 50%, further straining consumers' financial capabilities.The Toronto housing market has experienced an increase in listings, rising by 30% month-on-month. However, active inventory remains down by 23% year-on-year and is near its lowest level in a decade. Despite this, home prices in Toronto increased by a substantial 3.1% in May, marking one of the largest increases in the past decade. Calgary's real estate market continues to strengthen, with home sales rising by 7.5% month-on-month in May and reaching a record for that month. Although listings spiked by 30% month-on-month, active inventory is down by 40% year-on-year. Calgary's housing prices have seen a significant increase since 2020, rising from $400k to $540k, hitting a new all-time high HPI price in May.While the current trend suggests a likely recession, it is expected to be a "normal" recession rather than a major financial crisis. The growing unaffordability of housing, increasing HELOC payments, and persistent inflation raise concerns about the ability of the average consumer to sustain spending. WE expect to see a pullback over the summer and into the balance of the year. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Digital coins

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2023 8:19

The Bank of Canada (BoC) wants to know how you'd feel about swapping those cold hard coins for a less tangible alternative. When it comes to tech regulation, Europe is like the friend who sucks it up and calls the Uber when everyone pretends to stare off into space. Cracking down on AI is no exception. Want to get a free pair of Lululemon leggings? You just have to buy a fake pair first. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO

europe ai bank uber coins cracking lululemon regulating combatting fakes digital currency canada boc

Day trading tax

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2023 9:09

Tiff Macklem is nothing if not a man of his word. Despite mounting pressures, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its promise and continued to hold steady on interest rates. Canadian tax courts are cracking down on TFSA day trading, taking aim at investors that are doing so well that their trades could be classified as a business activity… well, kind of. Big Canola is betting that canola oil will be used to deep fry potatoes and power vehicles. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO

canadian bank flat courts interest rates fuels day trading cracking down tfsa canola oil tiff macklem canadian tax canada boc

Geothermal energy

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2023 9:10

Justin Trudeau met yesterday with the nation's premiers, offering them $196.1 billion in healthcare funding to put towards healthcare over the next decade, including $46.2 billion in completely new funding. In exchange, provinces and territories must improve how they collect and share health data and report on how they spend the money they receive. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is trying to open up. But unlike your typical therapy session, it's the Canadian public with the trust issues. Tired of hearing about wind, solar, and hydrogen energy? You're in luck. There's a hot new renewable energy source on the scene that is literally so hot. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO

canada canadian healthcare bank tired breakthrough justin trudeau opening up premiers geothermal energy canada boc

Vertical farm

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2022 8:44

We've come a long way since the 8.1% inflation rate seen in June (a near four-decade high), but if you ask the Bank of Canada (BoC), the economy still has some way to go. GoodLeaf, a Guelph-based indoor farm, raised $150 million from McCain and the investing arm of Quebec insurer Power Corp to expand its greens into a national brand. Canada has invested billions into the critical minerals mining sector this year with grand ambitions to become a major player in the global supply chain for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

canada bank rates ev quebec hoping hike aims minerals mccain guelph vertical farming canada boc

Retail revival

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2022 8:02

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is on track to give “monetary tightening” a whole new meaning by losing between $5 billion and $6 billion over the next few years. As Black Friday rears its head, the world's largest retailer is showing signs that the doom and gloom facing the retail sector this year may have been (at least a little) overhyped. A former researcher who worked in its electric batteries unit at Hydro-Quebec has been accused of collecting trade secrets and passing them on to China. Celebrating something? Let us know here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/MNdYA3TO The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

canada china numbers bank scandals spies expected posting retailers losing money hydro quebec retail revival canada boc

Meta dives 20% post-market. Apple & Amazon to report next…

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2022 10:55

Yesterday wasn't not a good day for the US Big Tech. Google dived almost 10% after reporting disappointing results, while Microsoft sank almost 8%. Nasdaq bounced 2% lower after having tested the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a touch below the 11700. And don't expect the things to look better today. Meta dived another 20% in the afterhours trading, after announcing disappointed results. On the macro front, however, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised with a softer-than-expected rate hike, and US home sales fell almost 11% in September. The US dollar index dived below its 50-DMA yesterday. The EURUSD rallied above parity, as Cable advanced past 1.16. Focus shifts to US GDP dat, the European Central Bank (ECB) decision, Apple & Amazon earnings today. Listen to find out more!

amazon google apple market microsoft focus bank nasdaq cable dives dma fibonacci us gdp eurusd european central bank ecb canada boc

Soft US data fueled hope, until Google & Microsoft hit gains. Meta, next!

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2022 10:47

Most US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft failed to please. Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low. The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year. It's important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story. The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday. Listen to find out more!

canada google ukraine data microsoft bank fed fx gains fueled cable dma google amp boc eurusd canada boc

Busy week: US Big Tech Earnings, central bank decisions, UK PM race !

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2022 14:02

Last week ended on a strong positive footage, on hints that some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have started talking about pausing the interest rate rises to avoid going too far. Softer Fed expectations pulled US yields lower and sent equities higher. On the earnings front, 70% of the S&P500 companies that reported earnings so far did better than earnings expectations, and big US tech companies and oil giants will be reporting earnings this week. In politics, Boris Johnson announced yesterday evening that he will not be running for the PM role this week. That makes the British ex-Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak the front runner in the contest. Sterling kicked off the week on a positive note, but bumped into 50-DMA resistance. In central banks, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to raise interest rates by another 50bp when it meets this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will certainly raise its rates by 75bp, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to stay pat. The BoJ intervened again in the currency markets on Friday to pull the USDJPY lower, after the pair flirted with the 152 level last week. The pair eased to 145.50 following the intervention and is back to almost 149 at the time of video. In commodities, US crude trades around $85per barrel level, and gold is better bid. Softer US yields could play in favour of gold if we really start seeing material easing in Fed expectations. But the latter is data dependent. Due this week, investors will closely watch the US latest GDP update, and the PCE index. Listen to find out more!

british race bank decisions fed big tech gdp boris johnson chancellor earnings central banks dma busy week boj p500 pce tech earnings european central bank ecb usd jpy exchequer rishi sunak canada boc

ECB has two options. Both are bad.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2022 10:47

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its policy rate by 75bp at yesterday's meeting as expected. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide by how much they will be raising their policy rates. There are two camps: The 75bp-hike camp believes that the ECB should hike the rates relatively faster to tame the surging inflation in the EZ. The 50bp-hike camp argues that a 75bp hike is too much for an economy that faces a terrible recession – amid the worsening energy crisis. With the stronger US dollar, you would expect the US exports to slow. But the contrary is happening. The US trade deficit fell to $70.7 billion in July, from $80.9 billion in June and an all-time high of $106.9 billion revealed in March. White House said that the fact that ‘real goods exports reached record levels is an encouraging sign of the resilience of the American economy'. US equities had a strong rebound yesterday. The S&P500 advanced 1.83%, while Nasdaq jumped 2%. Apple gained a bit less than 1% as it revealed the new iPhone. But the latest words from the Federal Reserve (Fed) members weren't softish, at all. The Fed's Vice Chair Lael Bainard repeated that the rates will be hiked to restrictive levels, Loretta Mester said that the US benchmark rate will go above 4% in the early 2023, and the Fed Chair Powell is due to speak today as well, and he will also repeat that there will be no easing to be anticipated just yet. So, gains remain vulnerable to sudden change in risk appetite. Elsewhere, gold bounced back above the $1700 mark, Bitcoin hit $18500 and the US crude dived near 6% to $81.50 a barrel, as the global recession fears outweighed the supply side concerns. Listen to find out more!

american apple iphone bank white house bitcoin options fed nasdaq ez ecb p500 fed chair powell european central bank ecb canada boc

Don't be scared, but the USD could rally waaay higher!

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2022 10:28

The three major US indices fell on Tuesday, the US yields spiked, and the dollar extended rally, as Americans returned from their Labor Day break. The Europe opened in the negative, The rising yields helped the US dollar extend rally, of course. The US dollar index is now above the 110 mark; the USDJPY spiked to 144, the EURUSD slipped below the 0.99 mark, the pound failed to hold the 1.15 support, and gold is now below the $1700 level, again. Bitcoin on the other hand accelerated the selloff, and is now below the $19K mark, as the bears are eyeing the June support of around $17500. The stronger dollar is a growing headache, and we want to believe that the USD rally cannot continue forever, but if history is any guide, the US dollar could strengthen way more than now. If we go back to 80's, when Volcker was hiking the interest rates at great speed to tame inflation, the US dollar also got very VERY strong. And unfortunately, other central banks' hawkishness doesn't tame the dollar appetite. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike by 75bp for the 4th consecutive meeting today, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its rates by 75bp tomorrow. But the euro looks bad, and the Loonie doesn't look any better. In equities, everyone in Europe talks about the upcoming Porsche IPO, while Apple fans are holding their breath to find out the new iPhone14! Listen to find out more!

europe apple americans bank bitcoin scared labor day rally usd iphone 14 volcker waaay eurusd loonie 19k european central bank ecb usd jpy porsche ipo canada boc

Wednesday, 7 September 2022: The RBA yesterday (06/09/22) lifted interest rates for a 5th consecutive month

Morgans AM

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 5:27

AUD - buying ~67.32 US cents. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday (6 September) lifted interest rates for a fifth consecutive month, announcing a +50 basis point hike that lifted the cash rate to 2.35% as widely expected. Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox forecasts that the cash rate will be 3.85% by calendar year end as the RBA adjusts to manage an economy that is in a resources boom (as the baton passes from China to India). The second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate headlines today's Australian economic calendar. The Bank of Canada (BoC) hosts its monetary policy meeting tonight AEST.

china australian bank gdp interest rates lifted aud consecutive reserve bank rba aest canada boc

Analysts can't agree on where stocks are headed next!

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2022 11:11

Lack of direction is what investors will be suffering until we see clearer signs of inflation abating. And that will take time, as we must see a couple of encouraging data points to call the central banks' inflation fight successful. The lack of clear direction is driving the markets up and down, and big bank analyst have very diverging opinions regarding where the stocks are headed next. One thing is clear, opportunities never disappear and picking the right sectors and right stocks lead to sustainable portfolio returns. Among interesting sectors, traditional and alternative energy stocks stand out. Swissquote proposes two promising alternative energy theme portfolios. In the FX, the dollar index rebounded, and the stronger greenback sent the EURUSD below the 1.0150 mark. The dollar-CAD is, on the other hand, swinging between the Canadian dollar bulls' hope of seeing a recovery in oil prices, and the persistently strong US dollar. Canada will reveal its latest inflation data today. A soft-enough read could soften the Bank of Canada (BoC) hawks, but a single month easing in inflation won't mean that the BoC would weaken its policy stance when inflation remains near multi-decade peak. Listen to find out more!

canada canadian bank lack headed analysts stocks fx cad boc eurusd swissquote canada boc

Charter rights

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2022 10:48

Travel insurers are seeing jumbo-jet-sized losses thanks to an onslaught of claims from Canadian travellers experiencing flight delays and cancellations. The Bank of Canada (BoC) kind of underestimated just how bad inflation was getting—and is now playing catch-up as it serves up a series of jumbo rate hikes. Long hospital wait times may be the bain of Canada's health care system, but they're not unconstitutional according to yesterday's BC Court of Appeal ruling. The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

canada canadian travel healthcare bank rights private woes closed appeal interest rates unhappy charter insurers court of appeals bc court canada boc peak daily

US Inflation rises and surprises, everything is in play

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2022 17:09

Thursday 14th July 2022 US inflation has picked up more than expected, rising 9.1% in the year to June. The Fed's Raphael Bostic said later that “everything was in play” when it came to a July rate rise. NAB's David de Garis says, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what he meant. The Bank of Canada (BoC) had just raised rates by 100 basis points, more than had been expected, so had that paved the way for the Fed? It certainly makes the RBNZ's 50 basis point hike seem a little constrained. The UK GDP growth was, unusually, helped by trips to the doctor, rather than to restaurants. Locally, Australian labour market data will be studied closely. Can the jobs market tighten any more and add to the pressure for faster hikes from the RBA?

australian bank inflation surprises fed locally nab rba garis rbnz uk gdp raphael bostic canada boc

Crypto winter ❄️ — The Bank of Canada releases a new survey on business outlooks. The chip shortage may be ending. And there's a new victim of the crypto winter.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2022 11:33

The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its newest quarterly surveys on consumer expectations and business outlooks yesterday and one thing was clear: both groups are still hyper-focused on inflation, but not yet panicking about a potential recession. Some good news in the long fight against supply chain disruptions: After two years of high demand, sales of some semiconductor chips are starting to wane—a development that could cut down on global wait times for the precious product Zip up those parkas because the crypto winter is getting even chillier, as another major lender in the space has fallen victim to the modern incarnation of a good ol' fashioned bank run. The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

canada bank ending victim releases outlooks chip shortage crypto winter new survey canada boc peak daily

Rising rates

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2022 10:14

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is continuing to aggressively hike interest rates to combat high inflation, announcing another 0.5 percentage point raise yesterday to 1.5%. Canada's largest employers are now required to report wage-gap data, part of an effort to shine a light on pay discrepancies across the country. Some of North America's largest food and drink companies are pledging to limit advertising to children under 13, as increased regulation on the practice looms The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

canada kids north america bank advertising limit employers disclosure go up agreeing big companies pay equity rising rates canada boc

Top Gun won't save AMC... maybe Powell can?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2022 10:34

May is finally over, but inflation worries, the war, and high energy prices welcome the new month with us. Yesterday's meeting between Joe Biden and Jerome Powell reminded investors that inflation is the policymakers' primary concern, and both Biden and Powell will do anything in their power to fight soaring inflation. But high energy prices remain a major worry. The good news is that the kneejerk reaction in crude oil to European ban of Russian oil imports remained capped near the $120 mark. The bad news is, Russia started cutting off the gas of more European countries as a response to the European ban on its oil exports, pressuring energy prices higher. US futures hint at a positive start to the month, but the gains are vulnerable to inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and the positive pressure in energy prices. On the individual front, AMC surfs on positive vibes from Top Gun Maverick, GameStop to release earnings, HP topped estimates, as Salesforce upgraded profit forecast. In the FX, the dollar index rebounds above the 102 mark this morning, but the upside potential will likely remain limited from here. Energy and commodity currencies look appetizing. So, don't forget to keep an eye on Loonie, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely raise its overnight rate by 50bps at today's meeting.

energy russia joe biden european russian guns bank gamestop powell top gun salesforce fx amc hp top gun maverick jerome powell loonie canada boc

Shrinkflation

Standard Chartered Money Insights

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2022 10:35

Last month, Ontario became the first province to create a law that protects everyday investors from unqualified financial professionals, per The Globe and Mail. “All that and a bag of chips” isn't the compliment it once was, as bags of chips contain fewer salty morsels than ever thanks to “shrinkflation.” The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to hike interest rates further today, with experts agreeing it will likely be the first “oversized” hike in over two decades—going up half a percentage point instead of the typical quarter percentage point. Celebrating something? Let us know for a shoutout here: https://thepeak.typeform.com/to/GuHjLDoa The Peak Daily is produced by 306 Media Productions. Hosted by Brett Chang and Jay Rosenthal.

bank mail ontario globe interest rates financial advisors regulating going up new law shrinkflation canada boc

Well that was anticlimactic

Curve Your Enthusiasm

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2022 26:35

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018, and the episode begins with a dissection of the statement. This week, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist in CIBC Economics. Once the pair establish what was surprising from the BoC, they spend some time discussing why C$100.0 oil in 2022 has a different impact than C$100.0 oil in 2014. Andrew discusses his upside view on inflation, while also discussing the latest trends in provincial economics. Ian and Andrew spend some time talking about what impacts terminal rates, and ultimately agree to disagree.

bank senior economist boc canada boc

The Weekly FX Navigator (6 July 2021): We still like the CAD

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2021 2:58

Uncertainty around the trajectory of Fed tapering could prop up the USD in the short-term, but we expect the USD downtrend to reassert itself over the next 12 months. The CAD remains a favoured currency in this scenario given its supportive terms of trade, a relatively more hawkish of Bank of Canada (BoC) and links to global growth.Speaker:DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

bank uncertainty fed usd cad navigator standard chartered bank investment strategist canada boc

The Weekly FX Navigator (20 April 2021): Loonie tunes up for further gains

Standard Chartered Money Insights

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2021 3:12

We believe there are a number of reason to be short-term bullish on the CAD, such as Canada's term of trade boost this year, its economic ties to the US and a Bank of Canada (BoC) which is on the verge of tapering. We will delve deeper into why we like the CAD in this week's podcast. Speaker:DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

canada bank gains tunes cad navigator standard chartered bank investment strategist loonie canada boc

Inflation is Coming! - MMC003

Make Money Count

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 26, 2021 31:31

Inflation is coming, make sure your mortgage is ready. A Quick Guide to save money on your mortgage in the next two weeks! Last week we found out that even though we have been in a lock-down, inflation has started to creep up. Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BoC) said that they are going to start slowing down their bond purchases. These two statements are directly linked to your mortgage rate. If you haven't compared your current rate to the rates available on the market, now is the time. You can be forgiven for not wanting to deal with your mortgage over the past few months. But you should know that more than 80% of Canadians are losing money on their mortgages. It is almost certain that the rate on your mortgage is too high relative to what you should be paying. If you're an existing Cannect borrower, this doesn't apply to you, our mortgage manager software analyses every mortgage file we have to identify savings and alerts an agent to notify you. BUT, if your mortgage was done directly with any lender in Canada, you should know that they have no obligation to inform you that you might be able to save money by paying them less in interest. You need to know that interest rates have already started increasing, they always start moving slowly and then move faster, that's the way the market works. STEP 1: Let's start off by addressing the elephant in the room! Here are the three main reasons you don't want to even look at your mortgage: You dread what the mortgage penalty to break it might be. No need to stress about this. In many cases, we can lower your rate with your existing lender. In others, we can reduce the penalty significantly, and at the very least we can monitor your mortgage until savings come available or your mortgage is coming closer to maturity. Thinking about collecting paperwork gives you anxiety. This is our job! Not yours, you focus on things you need to and let the Cannect team do this. Our technology and mortgage knowledge make the process easier than ordering a coffee. Shopping for the lowest rate SUCKS! There are so many rates out there, so many lenders, so many brokers. We know! That's why we have a team searching hundreds of lenders to get you the best rate, every time, guaranteed! STEP 2: Once you have decided to move forward with analyzing your mortgage for possible savings, we need to figure out what type of interest rate you should be switching to. Three factors should influence your decision as to what your next mortgage rate should be: Time: How long do you plan on keeping your mortgage for? Risk Appetite: How willing to absorb an interest rate increase are you, or how much are you willing to risk to save money with a variable rate mortgage? Where is the economy heading? STEP 3: The way you answered the question from step 2 should leave you selecting one of 3 mortgage products today: A 5 Year Fixed Rate starting at 1.60% A 5 Year Variable Rate starting at 1.0% A 10 Year Fixed Rate starting at 2.60% Rates are always changing, and although these are not likely to be lower anywhere else, we will constantly be checking. Trust is an important part of this process, you need to trust that the rates we provide you with are the lowest on the market. STEP 4: We get to work! At Cannect we work with hundreds of Canadians each and every month in an effort to reduce the interest they are paying on their mortgages. Our primary goal is to make the process of renegotiating your mortgage with your current lender, switching your mortgage to a new lender, or borrowing more money, as simple and easy as possible. We have it down to a science. No paperwork, just a phone call to identify what savings are available to you, and if the numbers make sense, two of our mortgage specialists will be dedicated to your file. We use our huge mortgage origination volumes to make sure you are getting the best mortgage rate on the market, and we use our amazing proprietary mortgage software to help collect and verify all your paperwork. Our service commitment is to do all the things you don't want to do. Want us to deal with your HR department to confirm employment, no problemo! Need someone to call your accountant? That's us! No need to meet to sign paperwork either. Most of your paperwork can be collected virtually, with your approval. By now you understand that all of our services are paid for by the lenders we source mortgages with, and more importantly, our entire philosophy since inception is to provide Canadians with sound, unbiased mortgage advice. That means if doing a deal doesn't make sense for you, you're going to hear about it from one of our salaried employees first! #Inflation #MakeMoneyCount #InterestRates

canada trust canadian thinking bank inflation shopping sucks canada boc

Divorces, Family Buyout, and Mortgages

Mortgagenomics Canada

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2020 17:32

The following is discussed:>for the 6th consecutive week 5 year fixed rates are available for as low as 1.79%. Even lower rates are available for no-frills products (I've seen rates as low as 1.64%). One other rate promo to be aware of -> 1.89% for a 5 year fixed, but no interest for the first three months (and it’s not tacked on to the mortgage either! This is the real deal, no smoke in mirrors). Enjoy the savings and the reduced mortgage payment, or lump sum the difference directly into your principle to accelerate your amortization!>More on interest rates and promotions: Last week I wrote that the Bank of Canada (BOC) will be discontinuing its purchase of bonds, but they have since renewed their commitment and simply scaled back their commitment from $5 Billion in bond purchasing per week to $4 Billion…this means continued low fixed rates! Also, this week, BOC announced they will be keeping prime rate at 0.25% for the unforeseeable future…some are speculating as long as 2023. So, cheap money is here to stay for a while longer! Last time money was this cheap was…never. How to remove a spouse (or family member) from your mortgage:With the divorce rate in Canada at 50%, this is a common inquiry that comes across my desk. Whether its a marital breakdown or a family member buyout this piece of mortgage surgery can be done with virtually every lender in Canada - there’s just a couple of key points to be aware of:(i) Is there a substantial buyout involved to the other party? If not, the success rate is 100%…easy peezy. If there is a substantial buyout, proceed to points (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) below(ii) Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) - the LTV will determine whether you proceed as a refinance or a purchase. If you can refinance up to 80% LTV and extract the amount needed for your buyout, this will be the cheapest way to go (this will save you thousands of dollars in equity from the hit you would take by incurring a CMHC/GE premium if you had to go above 80% LTV). (iii) Regardless of your LTV and whether or not an insurance fee is incurred, you also need to be aware of a break penalty if you will be doing this prior to the maturity date of the mortgage. Heads up.(iv) Also worth considering if you have to go past 80% LTV is porting your mortgage. Porting a mortgage is a fair bit more complicated, but definitely worth considering as you can potentially save in break fees and insurance premiums (if applicable).(v) If this is a result of a divorce/separation, the mortgage will definitely be subject to a formal separation/divorce agreement that will need to include the terms of the property buyout. The separation/divorce agreement must precede the mortgage approval as the funds will not be advanced without it. My favourite economist is Benjamin Tal.I’ve always been a fan of Benjamin Tal as he was a regular speaker at all of my conferences when I was with CIBC back in the 90’s. Like all economists, he’s insightful and delivers complex information with tact…but, what made me a fan was the tone of conviction in his delivery. The guy is entertaining…and quite often, correct. Here are some quotes (dated September 2020) about his thoughts on why Canadian real estate has been able to withstand one of the most challenging economic conditions of our time: “Eighty percent of jobs lost were in the service sector. Many of them were low-income and many of them were renters. So the impact was on rent as opposed to home ownership.”"We’re seeing a situation where home ownership actually went up. Why? Because 25% of Canadians are telling us that they’re considering buying another unit during this recession. Why? Because their job is still there and the interest rates are in the basement. That’s an opportunity that they’ve been waiting for and that’s why we’re seeing some demand come from domestic homebuyers, not foreign” “Canada receives 350,000 immigrants, annually…and in 2020, apparently 45% of them are already here

united states family canada canadian chinese bank divorce hong kong rain billion heads loans mortgage marko eighty buyouts ltv mortgage brokers boc cibc porting canada boc

OANDA Market Beat: January 9, 2019

OANDA Market Beat Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2019 4:18

The US dollar is higher against most major pairs on Tuesday. The Canadian dollar is an outlier as it gained 0.17 percent versus the greenback ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statement. The Canadian central bank has divided analyst as is expected to hold rates even if an interest rate hike would not be a total surprise. The BoC was expected to hike a couple of times in 2019, specially after staying put in December while the Fed lifted American rates. The volatile end of the year and the rocky start to this one has changed Fed monetary policy expectations and its anticipated Governor Poloz waits until there is less uncertainty on trade and oil prices before seeking normalization. Canadian trade deficit widened in November BoC to hold rates at 1.75 percent Fed Minutes from December FOMC to be published

american canadian market bank fed boc oanda december fomc canada boc

Episode 28 (Nov 1) - Insider Secrets & The Alternative Lending Universe with special guest Stephanie Barritt, mortgage broker extraordinaire

MULTIPLE OFFERS

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2018 67:03

Our first guest returns! She's well spoken. She knows her stuff. Stephanie Barritt - Mortgage Architects AskSteph.ca Contact Steph for help with new mortgages or refinancing. She's mobile (serving all of Metro Vancouver), and on site at our office in New Westminster as well as our sister office in Coquitlam. 10:30 - News Bank of Canada ("BoC") announced a rate increase. Stephanie helps us understand the impact. Should you lock in if you have a variable rate mortgage? 19:28 - Discussion Stephanie sheds light on the growing trend of "Alternative Lending" also referred to as "B Lending" and "Shadow Lending." It's an option that opens up opportunities for a short term mortgage until a borrowers' situation gets in line with current "A Lenders'" mortgage requirements. 38:24 - More mortgage broker insider secrets. Different lenders look at rental suite revenue in different ways and that could get you the house you really want. 46:30 - Question of the Week How is the penalty calculated to get out of a mortgage contract? Stephanie schools us on the penalty implications related to 'posted rates' that infer a 'discount' was provided and gets added to the penalty. 51:32 - Storytime Stephanie has a mortgage horror story that hopefully won't become too common as market conditions change. *** *** Send your feedback and questions to feedback@morealestateshow.com Look up the co-hosts at: thenewwestguys.com (Matt Brabbins and Jeremy Rae) realestatenewwest.com (Geoff McLennan)

universe lending extraordinaire mortgage brokers insider secrets new westminster metro vancouver coquitlam canada boc geoff mclennan

OANDA Market Beat: July 10, 2018

OANDA Market Beat Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2018 5:38

OANDA Market Beat Podcast is a discussion of upcoming market news macro analysis and economic indicator releases that will impact currencies, stocks and other asset classes with Alfonso Esparza. Trade Uncertainty Hits Dollar Confidence The US dollar fell against major pairs on Friday despite a strong June NFP report. The impending start of tariffs against Chinese goods and the retaliation from the Asian nation on US exports put downward pressure on the dollar. The US economy added 213,000 jobs and wages rose 0.2 percent but it is the threat of trade war escalation that put pressure on the US currency. The Canadian dollar advanced against its southern neighbour ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statement on Wednesday. The BoC could hike rates to keep up with American interest rates. The weekend brought a major showdown in England as Theresa May presented a soft Brexit strategy to her party that prompted some of the more hardline Brexiteers to quit, jeopardizing May’s position as leader of the party. - UK Manufacturing expected to bounce back - Bank of Canada (BoC) to hike interest rate to 1.50% - US inflation to keep rising at 0.2% m/m

american england canadian chinese market bank asian brexit theresa may boc brexiteers oanda uk manufacturing canada boc

Forex : USD/CAD Approaches Apex Ahead of Bank of Canada (BoC) Meeting

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2016 5:12

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/daily_dollar/2016/07/12/USDCAD-Approaches-Apex-Ahead-of-Bank-of-Canada-BoC-Meeting.html USD/CAD may threaten the wedge/triangle formation following the BoC interest rate decision should the meeting spur a shift in the policy outlook. #news #USDCAD #BoC @DavidJSong

bank approaches apex forex boc usd cad canada boc

Forex : USD/CAD Holding Pattern at Risk on Strong Canada Employment Report

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2016 5:33

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/daily_dollar/2016/07/07/USDCAD-Holding-Pattern-at-Risk-on-Strong-Canada-Employment-Report.html A positive Canada Employment report may threaten the near-term holding pattern in USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada (BoC) appears to be moving away from its easing cycle. #news #USDCAD #Canada Employment #BoC @DavidJSong

canada risk bank forex holding pattern employment report usd cad canada boc

Forex : USD/CAD Continues to Pare May Advance as BoC Endorses Wait-and-See

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2016 4:08

USD/CAD may continue to retrace the advance from earlier this month as the Bank of Canada (BoC) appears to be gradually moving away from its easing cycle. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/daily_dollar/2016/05/25/USDCAD-Continues-to-Pare-May-Advance-as-BoC-Endorses-Wait-and-See.html

bank advance pare forex endorses wait and see usd cad canada boc

Forex : USD/CAD Selloff to Persist on Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)