The Wise Investor Group - Baird

This week, Chase looks at Fedex's challenge for the market's attempt to form a level of support at these levels and what it means for a chance at returning to June lows. We contrast two managent team's and talk about some of the benefits and pitfalls of tax-loss harvesting with Matt Anderson.

Bear markets end, and you might not recognize it when it happens. If you don't, you may end up paying 20% or more higher for assets than when the bull markets actually getting started. This week, we talk about what the end of a bear market looks like and make preparations for that day.  AVGO was also mentioned in this episode.

Simon discusses the Fed's recent hawkish clarification of its monetary policy and how markets have reacted. Simon continues to argue for a grinding range-bound market where company-specific execution will increasingly inform stock prices. He brings on Ann Summerson to examine some of the potential ramifications of new government policy and potential policy changes to come. Companies mentioned in this episode include LHX, V, FISV, and RHX.

Simon discusses the recent ebbing of the stock market rally off the June lows. He suggests a trading range might take over where selectivity, discipline, and a heightened focus on fundamentals, particularly free cash flow generation, will increasingly come into play. He brings on Nick to discuss the key takeaways and impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act. Companies mentioned in this episode include MTK, ABBV, GNRC, AAPL, DHR, AMZN, APTV, NN CVX, XOM, and JNJ.

Today Chase talks about the sustainability of a large market rally since June and with Vasilios Rajendra, they look at the fundamentals of various retail names, as well as talking about the efforts of an activist shareholder of Disney. Companies mentioned in this episode include LOW, DIS, HD, GM, and NFLX.

Simon discusses the very confusing economic backdrop and suggests that the stock market bounce off the June lows could reflect expectations for a more benign slowdown. He makes the case for APTV, BRKB, and DIS as superior operators in a challenging environment. Greg helps to examine the big picture and how support is coming from some unlikely sources.  Companies mentioned in this episode include BRKB, DIS, APTV, AAPL, and NFLX. 

After seeing an oversold market in June, we saw a huge recovery in July. This week we look at what's driving the rally and if it still has potential. Then, a review of mixed reports on Generac. Companies mentioned in this episode include GNRC.

Simon discusses how the market decline has moved into a new phase focusing more on company-specific execution and outlook. This should increasingly reward the superior operators that have been lumped in with some of the indiscriminate selling over the first half of the year. He brings on Matias Rodlauer to review encouraging earnings reports from DHR, V, and GOOGL. Companies mentioned in this episode include DHR, V, GOOGLE, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, WMT, and PG.

We're not ready to bet on a bottom but we can look at the data and show why we're likely to see a rally through the summer and maybe more. Also, a look at the merits or lack thereof for ESG investing. Companies mentioned in this episode include DHR, AAPL, INTC, GOOGL, META, and DUK. 

Simon discusses how a well-positioned U.S. consumer is a current silver lining. He then talks about bonds and how investors have been selling precisely at the time they should be considering. He brings on David Mount to review some specific fixed-income strategies and asset classes within that make sense in a possible rising rate and continued inflationary environment. Companies mentioned in this episode include C and JPM. 

Simon explains from multiple perspectives how difficult it is to quantify what risks are discounted in current stock prices, but guesses that the bottom may not yet be in. He brings on Ann Summerson to discuss the ins and outs of 529 College Savings Plans, including some new wrinkles with respect to financial aid eligibility. Companies mentioned in this episode include JPM.

The year is half over, and so far it's been historically bad. This week we review how this fits in history and try to gain some perspective from the past, and then review 3 companies from the portfolio.

Simon discusses which stock market risks could already be discounted in prices. He suggests valuation multiple compression is well underway but how stocks still need to properly account for the likelihood of declining earnings. He brings on Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research at Strategas, to discuss the relationship between government policies and the markets and how to appreciate the message of the markets over forecasts. Companies mentioned in this episode include AAPL, JPM, and GM.

Simon discusses the recent cascade in stock selling and offers some historical precedent in terms of the depth and duration of bear markets. He also examines the historical relationship between bear markets and recessions. Simon and Vasilios discuss WIG's emphasis on high-quality, high-margin growth companies such as COST, V, and MSFT.

On this week's show, Chase discusses how investors are asking about the chances of a recession and why that's not the question investors should be focusing on. There was big inflation data last week and we talk about what this means for the economy and investors' behavior both in the markets and in their daily lives as Chase is joined this week by a fellow portfolio manager, David Mount. 

Nick and Vasilios discuss the key drivers of the market with an in-depth discussion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, inflation, and the talk of recessions. Plus, a review of some common questions from new investors and an explanation of why time horizons matter for evaluating risk.

After a wild week and volatile month in the markets, this week Chase explores an investment in a hypothetical restaurant to explain todays equity versus bond investments. Also, a quick breakdown of a big deal from Broadcom and we welcome back Michael Antonelli to discuss investor behavior.  Companies mentioned in this episode include AVGO, and VMW.

Simon discusses what history says about the depth and duration of bear markets around recessions and non-recessionary environments to help provide some context for the recent drawdown. He also offers a refresher on how individual bond returns work and how it might be time to revisit bond "ladders". He brings on Greg Smith to discuss some planning opportunities around Roth conversions and Required Minimum Distributions. Companies mentioned in this episode include AAPL, WMT, and TGT.

Simon discusses how the proper harnessing of one's emotions is much more important to investing success than market or economic influences. he identifies a number of potential pitfalls that investors often lose sight of during times of market stress. He brings on Matias to highlight the positive cases for FBHS and CRL amid the rout in growth stocks. Companies mentioned in this episode include BRKB, CRL, FBHS, MSFT, PLTN, and ZM.

With weeks like these, with their rolling waves of volatility, it's difficult to put thoughts on paper or in a recording for that matter. This week we review what's driving the markets, and what the Fed did this past week. We bring on Baird's market strategist, Michael Antonelli, as a guest to share his outlook.

The markets have returned again to January's lows, but corporate optimism is better than Wall Street's outlook. This week we look at those angles and discuss with Matt Anderson CFP® how to maintain a sustainable withdrawal rate with lower returns and higher inflation. Stocks mentioned in this episode include FISV, MRK, AAPL, and AMZN.    

Simon reviews a list of market indicators and characteristics that have been present at the important market tops in 2000 and 2007. The current conditions suggest caution, yet investors should refrain from making drastic portfolio moves. Simon and Vasilios review the strong cases for owning DIS, FISV, V and STZ.

Simon discusses the impact of higher interest rates on stock valuations and how there will be greater performance divergence when not "everyone gets a trophy". He also discusses the recent treasury yield curve inversion and the rout in bonds. He brings on Ann Summerson to review the important facets of the Secure Act and what is proposed in Secure Act 2.0 legislation. Companies mentioned in this episode include FB, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, ZM, DOCU, NFLX, NVDA, CRM, and MSFT.

This week a Fed governor updated the story and said they'd be sucking cash out of the market faster than previously thought.  However, that's opened the door for other investments, which we discuss on this week's show.

On this week's show, we put out a warning to be wary of who you're listening to and who's being presented as an expert. Too many fools are brought before us each day.  Then we talk about the different needs of different generations with guest Nick Sorden this week.

Simon discusses the regime change at hand given the end of the Quantitative Easing era and its implications. He highlights slowing growth as the main concern and examines historical relationships between recessions and the stock market. He brings on Greg to discuss the possible timeliness of Roth conversion strategies, as well as pairing them with charitable giving plans.

Front and center this week was the Fed raising rates, making some things more expensive to fight inflation. On this week's show, we talk about what that's doing to the markets, what wasn't expected in their statement, why the correction may be over, and bring on John Kinzer, Vice President and Senior Loan Officer at The Kinzer Group, to talk about what this means for mortgages. Companies mentioned in this episode include LH.

Simon discusses and puts in perspective the financial markets' four central concerns: the Ukraine invasion, falling stock valuation multiples, inflation, and slowing economic growth. He brings on Vasilios to discuss the rise and recent fall of Electic Vehicle-related stocks and how very attractive growth opportunities for the space are here to stay.  Companies mentioned in this episode include AMZN, APTV RIVN, GM, F, HYMTF, HMC, NSANY, TM, and TSLA.

John Travolta's psychopathic character in Broken Arrow knew better than to shoot at the nukes, but this week the market didn't like that Putin didn't seem to mind. What does that and the Fed chair's testimony this week mean for an investor? We look at that and talk to one of our analysts on this week's show. Companies mentioned in this episode include GNRC, ABBV, and AVGO.

The largest war in Europe in about 80 years started this past week. Although it was predicted, the markets still acted initially with surprise, only to adapt and then rally big off of the recent January lows. This week we explore why that selloff and rally happened. Later on, we talk to Ann Summerson to get an understanding of Social Security strategies. 

Simon discusses the twin headwinds of the Ukraine crisis and potentially more aggressive Fed action and how to think both in terms of portfolio positioning. He then highlights some myths of investing that he knows to be true but are easy to lose sight of in volatile conditions. Vasilios comes on to present the case for both DIS and FISV as great long-term growth stories. Companies mentioned in this episode include V. DIS, FISV, T, NFLX, MA, AFRM, and SQ.

Simon discusses the current slide in growth and Technology stocks and whether a large swath of the names have entered into a multi-year bear market. He brings on Nick to discuss the Metaverse and how it is a long-term technology theme that is worth positioning for. They describe what the concept entails, how the building blocks are already in place, and how many of today's core, well-established companies are already heavily involved. Companies mentioned in this episode include BRKB, FB, AAPL, GOOGL, DIS, JPM, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, TI, AMAT, AXP, COF, WMT, WFC, CMG, TI, RTN, BNY, INTC, RBLX, and NKE.  

This week we look at the correction in the markets this year. How unremarkable they are, what's driving them, and what should come next. Also, it's earnings season and we have a few companies to review. Companies mentioned in this episode include AMZN, TRMB, and MRK.

Simon discusses the current correction in various equity asset classes and places in historical context. He reviews the carnage and suggests that regime change away from high multiple growth stocks is at hand. He brings on Matias to discuss the rationale for owning FBHS, JNJ and GOOGL. Companies mentioned in this episode include FBHS, GOOGL, JNJ, MRK, and SHW.

A fast-moving clipper is taking the market to correction territory this month, with many of the street's favorites now in bear market territory. This week, Chase and Greg, look at what's driving this storm and then talk about a financial planning technique that's hugely impactful and under threat of a legislative change.

Simon discusses valuation multiple compression and the significant rotation so far this year from expensive to cheaper names. He brings on Dave to think about rising interest rates and how they should inform investment portfolio positioning. They talk about areas of the stock market to favor and fade and ways to navigate a particularly challenging environment for fixed-income investing. Companies mentioned in this episode include USB, BRK, PNC, WFC, JNJ, DHR, JPM, and C.

Simon and Chase highlight the key drivers and themes that informed last year's stellar returns and peek into 2022 to weigh various headwinds and tailwinds. They focus on strong corporate fundamentals tempered by possible multiple contraction which will likely make investment selection that much more important. STZ, DIS, GNRC, and MRK all screen as attractive with multiple catalysts.  Companies mentioned in this episode include STZ, DIS, GNRC, MRK, C, JPM, BRKB, APPL.

Simon offers some observations on what to expect in 2022 and how sticking with quality and value will likely be more important. He highlights Healthcare and the more economically-sensitive names and how speculative, high multiple growth may have further to fall. He also discusses how the international markets and Japan, in particular, are attractive.

Financial Planner, Matt Anderson, contemplates some of the lessons learned from 2021 and provides some brief thoughts on things to consider moving into 2022.

Today we look at an expected shift in the market trend, as we get back on the tracks that carried us for 40 years. How the cycle to take us to there may hurt some investors, and ideas that will instead profit you along the way.

​We have 9 days left in the year to make financial moves if they're going to get done this year. The clock is ticking, and you have one less day to work with than you might think -- because Christmas falls on a Saturday, the Market will be closed Friday, December 24th, further shortening the timeline. My pleasure to bring you several ideas of late in the year moves you can make to help your and your family's financial situation. Give it a listen and see if any apply to you!

Simon remains optimistic about the stock market in 2022, but suggests investors temper their enthusiasm and approach with reduced expectations. He highlights possible valuation multiple compression and more modest earnings growth as reasons. He also discusses how the average stock is losing upside momentum and how discounts in quality names are providing an opportunity. 

Today's the day we move monetary policy forward, with today's Fed meeting and subsequent statement. This morning, we look to what's going to happen and what that means for the markets, specifically illustrating how it's affecting one of the strongest stocks in the markets this year. 

Looking out over next year this week, we look at where the trouble lies. While corporate results are expected to remain strong, a key tailwind for the market's results for years will start to be a headwind and may have an outsized impact on returns.

On today's podcast, David goes over the latest economic data the group is following as well as discusses how inflation could impact the housing market if you are thinking about your next move.

Simon discusses the current reversal in what had been working in the market. He cautions against momentum trading and market timing, argues for portfolio balance, and examines the current environment relative to both the pre-Covid landscape and during the 2013 "Taper Tantrum". He makes the case for owning quality dividend-paying stocks and IBM, specifically.

On today's podcast, Chase talks about the volatility since Black Friday, resulting from the Omicron Covid-19 variant and the Fed's comments this week. Also, a look at what we'd consider buying if the volatility continues.  

Today on the show, Vasilios discusses the Q3 growth scare, inflation concerns, and the Fed. He also counts down The Wise Investor Group's top 10 holdings, sharing why the team considers them our favorite investment ideas. He also briefly talks about the group's incorporation of traditional value principles into the modern investment environment, and how that framework allows construction of a portfolio built to succeed in the long run.

Simon discusses how challenging it is to improve returns through market timing. Specifically, he throws cold water on the idea that investors can successfully market time by weighing the probability of recessions, focusing on market valuations, or measuring the duration of a bull market. 

Simon discusses how pessimism is dominating the headlines, but overall there are more tailwinds than headwinds. He details why stock investors should still be optimistic about 2022. He also highlights the buy rationale for Visa (V), Disney (DIS), and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ).

Financial Planner, Matt Anderson, tells you what you need to know about the current status of the Build Back Better plan. Many of the changes that would affect individuals in the original draft have been removed. In fact, most higher income people will see a tax cut next year if things stay where they are now.