When the Facts Change

This week, Bernard Hickey dives into the psychology of the housing market and talks to realestate.co.nz CEO Sarah Wood about why so many home sellers are holding on and simply not selling, rather than lowering their price to “meet the market” and “clear the market” in a way other markets do when there's too much supply and not enough demand. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

More than half of consumer spending is dominated one way or another by a collection of monopolies, duopolies and quadropolies that generate higher prices and profits than would be normal if there was true and tough competition, as a myriad of market studies and inquiries have found for supermarkets, fuel retailing, building materials, electricity, banking, insurance and real estate agencies. Twenty years of finger-wagging and report writing has failed in all of these sectors, except for telecommunications, where an aggressive breakup of a monopoly (Telecom) and regulation of number portability and interchange fees, along with the arrival of third competitor in 2degrees, sparked a flourishing of competition and ever-lower prices for ever-more data. The Reserve Bank called it the “2degrees Effect” in creating deflation for a significant part of the economy. Bernard Hickey talks to Monopoly Watch spokesman and one of the founders of 2degrees, Tex Edwards, about how to create the “2degrees Effect” for supermarkets, banking and electricity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey talks to the co-founders of Christchurch-based AI start-up, Contented. Lucy Pink and Hannah Hardy-Jones tell their story from meeting over coffee and jam, to working with US news publishers to turn live-streamed council meetings into news articles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump's bigger-and-stupider-than-expected tariffs have upended the global trading system and are threatening to create a new financial crisis. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about the latest day “when the facts changed”, and what might happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If New Zealand's economy was a grass paddock, it would be in pretty rough shape. We're coming out of a pretty bad drought (economic recession) and there's widespread political disagreement about how to get our worn-out field of brown grass back to the lush green pasture it once was. Bernard Hickey speaks to Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado about what looks promising (green shoots) and what looks worrying (brown roots) in the meadow of our national economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For 30 years, a little-known number in government circles has quietly stymied investment for future generations. Set by Treasury, the ‘discount rate' was once set at 10%, and it meant future benefits and costs were heavily devalued, becoming worth almost nothing after six or seven years. In a nutshell, higher discount rates discourage long-term investment and incentivise short-term projects. Treasury has recently reduced the discount rate to 5%, but is that enough? Bernard Hickey talks with Arthur Grimes, senior fellow at Motu Research and professor at Victoria University, about a big shift to new discount rates that could make big future projects much more viable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey chews the monetary policy fat with returning guest Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway. Was inflation targeting (a policy framework first introduced in Aotearoa 35 years ago) actually our greatest invention? Was quantitative easing a success? Is inflation different now? And should Reserve Banks and Governments work more in tandem, rather than against each other? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we dive deep into the worlds of AI, defence technology businesses and the great technological arms race between China and the US. Bernard is joined by Sean Gourley, a New Zealander who founded US-based tech success story Primer, an AI intelligence company helping governments understand the mathematical patterns underlying modern warfare. Gourley shares his insights about New Zealand's position in this great contest, along with the opportunities for New Zealand to grow high-value businesses (think Rocketlab) in the AI and tech space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor this week after 7 years in the job, but three years early, effective immediately and without explanation. Bernard Hickey talks in an emergency edition of When The Facts Change with NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich, an Orr critic, about his legacy and how his replacement should change the bank, and with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about Orr's operation of monetary policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Even as New Zealand's economy was in the depths of a recession, the Reserve Bank kept a firm grip on monetary policy, only easing up in mid-2024. This week, Bernard Hickey sits down with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss whether the Reserve Bank should be hitting the accelerator now, rather than simply lifting its foot off the brake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Described by The Spinoff's Duncan Greive as “the most important figure in New Zealand technology you've never hear of”, Rowan Simpson has had a guiding hand in Aotearoa's most successful tech companies. His new book “How to be Wrong: a crash course in startup success” shares the close calls and near misses that happened on the way to success (read: the staggering purchase of Trade Me by Fairfax Media in 2006). He talks to Bernard Hickey about his journey through tech, the keys to startup success, and whether he ought to have just bought in to residential property instead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Retail spending figures from shops, cafes, restaurants, hotels and holiday hotspots over December and January are the ultimate barometer for spending appetites, income levels and general confidence in job security. Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara joins Bernard Hickey to discuss a note she published this week, diving in to the latest spending data collected over the summer break. How relaxed were Kiwi with their holiday spending money? What are the experts predicting for 2025? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Free trade agreements are the global political economy's hottest topics at the moment, especially since a tariff-toting Donald Trump recently argued (to great political success) that the rising tide of global free trade wasn't lifting all boats. While global economic growth has lifted many out of poverty, the benefits have been unevenly distributed, leading to increasing wealth inequality and stagnant wages for the middle-class in many parts of the world. Inequality and wealth researcher Max Rashbrooke joins Bernard Hickey to discuss recent inequality trends here in Aotearoa, and to share an interesting idea he has to use KiwiSaver to jumpstart the personal wealth of every single New Zealander, right from the moment they are born. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our social welfare system is complicated, expensive - and incredibly necessary. How do we know when it's working properly? And when it's not? ImpactLab CEO Maria English joins Bernard to unpack the data and evidence-based metrics they use to assess the “social return on investment” of social services funding, and how the company uses their insights to help make Aotearoa a better place. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last June the economists at Kiwibank published an article titled “Survive ‘til 25”, outlining what they saw as a tough six months ahead for our economy. Well we've made it to 2025, but is the economic year ahead going to be about surviving or thriving? Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins Bernard Hickey to try and find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In order to reduce debt, the coalition government wants to cut spending from 34% of GDP down to 30%. In practice, that means cutting spending on people with disabilities, even though those cuts often increase hospital and care costs in the long term. Bernard is joined this week by disability rights lawyer (and distant cousin) Huhana Hickey, for an in-depth look at what austerity actually means. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Political and economic debates in 2024 were dominated by the Government's new fast-track legislation, a controversial bill that aims to speed up infrastructure and development, which passed just before Christmas. The debate, and the risks, were summed up in an impassioned plea in parliament by Labour MP Arena Williams, who said of the bill: “This is the closest New Zealand has ever come to cronyism through the legislative process.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump's re-election was the defining moment (and the major shock) in the world of politics this year. His proposed tariff regime is set to upend global economics, which he has kicked off by threatening 25% tariffs on America's two biggest trading partners: Canada and Mexico. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Finally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started cutting interest rates this year, having moved before everyone else and stayed higher for longer than everyone else. The economy slumped significantly early in the year, remaining firmly in recession since. By August 14, Adrian Orr felt safe enough to cut 25 basis points. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara has dug through card-spending data to find out how retail spending has changed since Covid, and over the last year of high interest rates. Have we collectively tightened the purse strings in response to a cost-of-living crisis? Or are we taking advantage of online shopping payment options that have never been more convenient? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Homelessness in Aotearoa has hit an all-time high, forcing organisations like Wellington City Mission to adopt innovative new strategies. Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge joins Bernard Hickey to talk about the scale of the housing crisis in our capital city and how a couple of new approaches and buildings are making a difference for those worst affected. Read more about the Wellington City Mission's efforts in Joel's MacManus' Cover Story: https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/11-11-2024/inside-the-urgent-race-to-solve-homelessness-in-aotearoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Motueka might appear sleepy and remote to visitors, but like much of Aotearoa, it faces a severe shortage of rental housing—often far pricier than expected. Bernard Hickey sits down with Miriana Stephens to discuss how her iwi is tackling this crisis by building dozens of affordable homes, with the marae at the heart of community life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2022, Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr told Christmas shoppers to “cool your jets”, as the bank scrambled to control inflation by hiking interest rates. This week - now inflation has been beaten back down - he delivered another whopper 50-basis point rate cut in the RBNZ's latest monetary policy statement. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the governor's gradual transformation from OCR grinch to Father Christmas, and how many more rate cuts we can expect to see in the new year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Victoria University professor of taxation Lisa Marriott talks to Bernard Hickey about the fundamental flaws at the core of our tax system, how they have produced historic levels of wealth inequality in Aotearoa - and how we can fix them. Lisa is speaking at the Pakukore: Poverty, by Design conference at Victoria University, 21-23 November. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For decades, Pat Hanley has been a tireless advocate for the rights of beneficiaries, drawing attention to the persistent challenges they face. In this week's episode of When the Facts Change, he sits down with Bernard Hickey to unpack the deep-rooted causes of poverty in Porirua. Hanley argues that both the underlying issues and society's approach to addressing poverty demand a comprehensive overhaul, calling for transformative change to create a fairer, more supportive social landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our prisons are bursting at the seams. They cost at least $2 billion per year to run – and that's before we consider the longer-term and wider-reaching costs to our health, education, housing, justice and welfare systems. University of Auckland indigenous studies professor Tracey McIntosh joins Bernard to interrogate the reasons why we, as a society, persist with ever-larger and ever-more-damaging institutions that are failing to reduce crime rates or recidivism (and, in fact, may actually be increasing them). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fintechs are changing the way we spend and save, but they are also set to change the way we could be paid for work, or more correctly, how workers are paid benefits on the fringes. Bernard Hickey talks to Steven Zinsli, the founder of Extraordinary (formerly HealthNow) about his new payments card system to help employers deliver extra benefits to employees through electronic cards, rather than having to claim expenses or just get plain old cash paid straight into a bank account.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The animal spirits of the economy are stirring back to life after a whopper of an interest rate cut - with expectations of one more to come. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about how businesses are feeling heading into the Christmas sales season, and what might upset the metaphorical applecart. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What if your hot water cylinder could help solve New Zealand's energy crisis? And how is an hour of free electricity helping with our notoriously problematic electricity market? Electric Kiwi co-founder and CEO Huia Burt sits down with Bernard Hickey to explore how they are helping New Zealanders tackle the cost-of-living crisis, all while reducing our national reliance on non-renewable energy sources. Tune in for a fascinating discussion about electricity, innovation, and the potential for real change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Finance minister Nicola Willis is on a mission to crunch the size of government debt from well over 33% of GDP to under 30% within a few years, as well as fire up growth in an economy experiencing its worst-ever recession per capita. Doing one would be hard, but both at the same time seems a mission impossible for a politician wanting to win a second term. Bernard asks her how the government will both keep its promises and engineer even bigger spending cuts in per capita terms than those delivered by Ruth Richardson in the early 1990s. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As our national population grows older (and the superannuation system becomes increasingly burdened by the growing ranks of retirees), how will the government balance the books? The ratio of tax-paying adults to superannuitants is steadily falling, and raising the age of eligibility for super won't cover the forecasted shortfall. So what kind of fiscal policy changes are needed before public debt starts getting scary? Dominick Stephens, chief economic adviser at the Treasury, joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the long-term unsustainability of our current situation, the impacts of migration and outsized labour force participation by over-65s, and what's at risk if we don't make changes soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Aotearoa's biggest problems are largely caused by a lack of infrastructure - housing, transport, water, hospital and education - in the areas that need it most. So how could (or should) we plan the systems that keep our country running? And who is responsible for divining the future to make decisions that can have an impact for decades to come? Bernard Hickey is joined by Peter Nunns, acting general manager of Te Waihanga NZ Infrastructure Commission, to discuss the murky business of planning infrastructure projects for an uncertain future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank chief executive Steve Jurkovich joins Bernard to discuss the current economic landscape and what's happening (and likely to happen) with interest rates. Steve also shares his thoughts on the future of Kiwibank, open banking and if he considers possible banking plays by likes of Apple and Google to be a legitimate threat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As recently as late May, the Reserve Bank thought it wouldn't need to cut rates until well into 2025. However, a batch of leading indicators revealed a slump in economic activity through June, and the RBNZ decided to hit the brakes by lowering the official cash rate in its August monetary policy statement. Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway talks to Bernard Hickey about why the RBNZ decided to change course, what kinds of data they are lacking compared to other central banks, and what they can't change about our economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Selling everything and booking one-way tickets to Thailand marked the beginning of an extraordinary life for popular travel vloggers Dane and Stacey. With over 200,000 followers on Instagram and YouTube, the digital nomads have built a thriving business by offering travel tips, guides and an authentic peek behind the curtain of their lives. Join us as we find out how Dane and Stacey make their relationship work and keep the money coming in, no matter where in the world they are. Check out all the episodes from season three of This is Kiwi: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Saul Griffith helped change the world a couple of years ago when he and a couple of "tech bro" mates convinced Joe Biden to rewrite the Democrats' Green New Deal and pitch it as an Inflation Reduction Act to rewire America's economy with renewable energy. Saul makes a pitch for Aotearoa to do the same, but much cheaper and much faster, instead of the government's current plan to spend $1 billion importing gas over the next couple of years. He presents Rewiring Aotearoa's paper on The Electrification Opportunity, which estimates cheaper power costs worth $10.7 billion per year by 2040. https://www.rewiring.nz/tomorrow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most actors don't go straight from performing lunchtime school shows to landing the lead role in a big-budget Netflix series, but Jess Hong isn't most actors. Since being cast as Jin Cheng in the blockbuster sci-fi series 3 Body Problem, life has been a whirlwind for the self-confessed introvert. Jess might be living the Hollywood dream, navigating global career success and financial freedom, but the core of who she is remains the same. Find out how an attempt to overcome her shyness as a teenager took Jess Hong from school stages to Tinseltown.  Stay tuned for new episodes each Monday: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Accountants often have low profiles and their accounts seem merely to keep score on the games of capitalism, but they can sometimes shape capitalism itself - and maybe even the atmosphere. Bernard Hickey talks with Dr Amelia Sharman from the External Reporting Board. Typically an obscure setter of accounting standards nestled somewhere between the government and companies, she details how the XRB's new standards for emissions accounting might just change the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you become the most viewed New Zealand artist on TikTok? With over 46 million likes on the platform, Taylor Roche has shown that challenging the status quo and turning obstacles into opportunities can truly pay off. What began as posting funny videos online for fun has evolved into a thriving career, allowing him to grow his personal brand while making an impact with his music. Taylor's story goes beyond his TikTok fame – join us as we explore the rise of one of our most dynamic content creators. Stay tuned for new episodes each Monday: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2018, The Consumer Advocacy Council was set up by cabinet in response to a commissioned investigation into the nation's problematic electricity market. It was designed to act as an independent advocate for residential and small business electricity consumers in Aotearoa. Then came Budget 2024. With the stroke of a pen, the council was scrapped by the coalition government to help balance the books. Former chair Deborah Hart speaks to Bernard Hickey about what the loss of the council means for everyday consumers, what's wrong with our electricity industry and how we can improve things in the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There are few who embody resilience quite like Jess Quinn. Having suffered cancer and an amputation as a child, Jess has faced challenges most of us could never imagine. Now, just over two decades later, she can list model, writer, dancer and social advocate on her CV as she uses her channels to inspire hundreds of thousands online. Join us as we explore Jess' journey, uncovering the struggles and triumphs that have seen her go from surviving to thriving.  Stay tuned for new episodes each Monday: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate this week for the first time since the beginning of Covid. Bernard talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about how the central bank changed its mind when the facts changed, and what it means for mortgage rates and the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices